Academic literature on the topic 'Food industry and trade, data processing'

The share of simultaneous exports and imports of the same types of products by a country or intra-industry trade has gown continuously over the last century. At the same time, share of inter-industry trade when countries specialize in production and trade occurs only between industries has declined. Trade in differentiated products of the same sector and the same stage of processing is referred to as a horizontal intraindustry trade. Such products are close substitutes for each other in terms of factor inputs and consumption. Trade in products of the same sector at different stages of processing is referred to as a vertical intra-industry trade. According to economic theory, a rise in the share of intra-industry trade is occurring within the trade growth in general due to an economic development and broader integration. Since early nineties, Latvia has remained a net importer of agri-food products. At the same time, both exports and imports of agricultural commodities and processed food products has consistently grown, with total trade turnover increasing. The objective of the study is to determine the share of the intra-industry trade and structural changes in the sectors of Latvian agricultural production and food processing over the last decade. To reach the research objectives, Grubel-Lloyd intraindustry trade indexes, Brülhart marginal intra industry trade indexes and Thom-McDowell indexes of total marginal intraindustry trade were compiled for Latvian agri-food trade data over ten years period from 2002 to 2011. The research results show consistently high share of intra-industry trade in total Latvian trade in agricultural commodities and food products over the whole period. A shift from predominantly vertical marginal intra-industry trade towards horizontal marginal intraindustry trade is observed.

The aim of the paper was to examine the intensity and to determine the type of intra-industry trade in agri-food products between the EU and US. The analysis was based on data from the Comext-Eurostat database and it was carried out at the 6-digit level of HS classification in 2007-2018. Based on the conducted research, it can be concluded that trade in agri-food products between the EU and US is developing mainly in accordance with the model of inter-industry specialisation, which in the years 2007-2018 was strengthening and deepening. Intra-industry trade, vertical rather than horizontal, was primarily observed in the exchange of products with a higher degree of processing.

Abstract Food safety plays an essential role in our daily lives, and it becomes serious with the development of worldwide trade. To tackle the food safety issues, many advanced technologies have been developed to monitor the process of the food industry (FI) to ensure food safety, including the process of food production, processing, transporting, storage, and retailing. These technologies are often referred to as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and blockchain, which have been widely applied in many research areas. In this review, we introduce these technologies and their applications in the food safety domain. Firstly, basic concepts of these technologies are presented. Then, applications for food safety from a data perspective based on these technologies are analyzed. Finally, future challenges of the applications of AI, big data, and blockchain are discussed.

This study aims to determine the level of financial literacy of MSME actors in Jepara District and analyze the influence of financial knowledge, financial behavior, financial attitude on the development of MSMEs on MSME actors in the trade sector and processing industry (food products, beverages, and services) in Jepara District. This study uses a quantitative approach using the questionnaire method in data collection. The population in this study were MSME actors engaged in the trade and processing industries (food products, beverages, and services) in Jepara District as many as 242 businesses. The samples studied were 75 respondents who were calculated using the Slovin formula. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis. The research results obtained are financial knowledge, financial behavior and financial attitude have a positive effect on the development of MSMEs.

Since its independence in 1960, C?te d?Ivoire has opted for an industrial policy that has given rise to two major types of agrofood industry. The first is small-scale units owned by nationals and the second is agro-food industries owned by large international firms that mainly export their products. This strategy has led to commodity specialisation that deteriorates the terms of trade. Thus, despite a significant industrial sector, the country suffers from deteriorating trade terms due to an overly extroverted economy, the corollary of which is over-indebtedness. This paper compares the performance of domestic and international markets of C?te d?Ivoire to identify the type of agro-food industry that should be promoted for development. The ripple effects in domestic and international markets are estimated and compared using the Leontief model and data from the C?te d?Ivoire Input-Output Table of 2018. We show that the cocoa and coffee processing branch of the agro-food industry is commercially outward-oriented, the oilseed industry is commercially mixed or dual-oriented, and the other branches are commercially inward-oriented. The ripple effects of the domestic market are almost four times higher than those of the external market. The high rate of population growth, galloping urbanization and the social nature of food are key determinants of the findings. We conclude that the domestic market better stimulates the development of the agro-food industry. We therefore recommend a strategy of orienting products towards domestic and West African markets, which could lead the country to sustainable economic development more rapidly.

Over the past decades, researchers from academia, industry, and National authorities and enforcement laboratories, have gained increasing insight in understanding the presence, formation and potential risk to public health posed by the compounds formed during the domestic cooking and heat-processing of different foods. Compounds already intensively studied are the heterocyclic aromatic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and chloropropanols. Concrete measures have been introduced by the food industry to control certain contaminants, exemplified by the introduction of enzymatic hydrolysis of plant proteins or over-neutralization to reduce concentrations of chloropropanols in savoury flavours. The recent discovery of acrylamide in cooked foods has raised much concern, and sparked intensive scientific studies into the occurrence, analysis, exposure, mechanisms of formation, possible measures of control, and toxicology of the compound. However, since acrylamide formation is directly linked to the desired Maillard reaction that generates important flavour and aroma compounds – as well as chemicals with potentially beneficial health effects – any measures taken must assess the impact on overall quality and consumer acceptance of the food product. In addition, mitigation must be devised in such a way as not to increase the risks for other possibly more severe short and medium to long-term health risks. In this context, understanding the impact of changes in processing on the safety of foods will be of paramount importance. In May 2004 the US FDA published findings of trace levels of furan in different foods, corroborating older data and raising some concerns, albeit without reference to any health risks. Particularly canned and jarred foods that are subject to thermal treatment are apparently affected, as the volatile furan is essentially “trapped” in the food container. Analogous to the acrylamide concern, there is a paucity of knowledge in all scientific domains, i.e. exposure, methods of analysis, mechanisms of formation, toxicology. Finally, a concern that needs to be addressed is the lack of knowledge about the effects of final preparation in food service and domestic situations on the formation of processing contaminants. In essence, consumers should follow sound dietary and health advice by choosing diets based on balance, variety and moderation.

The role of East Java as a trade hub for eastern Indonesia is still in doubt. This study aims to analyze the role of East Java as a trade hub for eastern Indonesia (KTI). This research was conducted descriptively using interregional input-output (IRIO) data with 52 industries in 2016 from BPS. The results of this study show that the proportion of East Java's exports to eastern Indonesia is still small. Although small in proportion, exports by East Java to eastern Indonesia are very profitable for East Java. The value of East Java's exports is greater than the value of its imports. The majority of East Java's exports are used to meet final demand needs. Meanwhile, imports by East Java from eastern Indonesia are dominated by intermediate demand in East Java. Bali is East Java's largest export destination in Eastern Indonesia, followed by Papuan, NTB and NTT. Industries with dominant export values ​​to eastern Indonesia include the Food and Beverage Industry and the Tobacco Processing Industry. Meanwhile, the dominant imports came from a season and annual plantation industry and the metal ore mining industry.

Subject. The article addresses the activities of sugar beet and sugar industries of Russia and Ukraine to ensure the food security of these countries under sanctions. Objectives. The aim is to consider the origin, formation, and activities of sugar beet industry in the said countries, describe and compare certain results of retrospective analysis of these industries’ development in the context of increasingly tougher regime of foreign trade restrictions. Methods. The study draws on methods of analysis and synthesis, grouping and comparison, abstraction, generalization, and analogy. It employs the analysis of statistical data, using the methods of mathematical modeling, and systems analysis. Results. The analysis of trends in the development of sugar beet industries in Russia and Ukraine enabled to describe the levels of provision of the population with sugar and confectionery, and the provision of the food and processing industry with sugar and by-products of its production. Conclusions. At present, Russia has a real opportunity, to maintain a high level of consumption of sugar and confectionery by the population of the country; to provide sugar and by-products of its production to the food and processing industries; to increase the export of sugar beet products of the agro-industrial complex of Russia. The findings can be used in long-term planning of the Russian sugar beet industry development and in scientific research.

AbstractObjectiveIndia has proposed legislating an upper limit oftransfat in partially hydrogenated vegetable oils and mandatingtransfat labelling in an effort to reduce intakes. The objective of the present study was to examine the complexities of regulatingtransfat in India by examining the policy processes involved and the perceived implementation challenges.DesignSemi-structured interviews (n18) were conducted with key informants from various sectors. Interviewees were asked about sources oftransfat in the food supply, existing policies that may influencetransfats and perceived challenges related to the proposedtransfat regulation, in addition to questions tailored to their area of expertise. Interview data were organised based on common themes.SettingInterviews were conducted in India.SubjectsInterviewees were key informants from various sectors including agriculture, trade, industry and health.ResultsSeveral themes were identified related to the complexity of regulatingtransfat in India. A lack oftransfat awareness, the large unorganised retail sector, a need for suitable alternative products that are both acceptable to consumers and affordable, and a need to build capacity were crucial factors affecting India's ability to successfully regulatetransfat. The limited number of food inspectors will create an additional challenge in terms of enforcement oftransfat regulation.ConclusionsAlthough India will face challenges in regulatingtransfat, legislating an upper limit oftransfat in partially hydrogenated vegetable oils will likely be the most effective approach to reducing it in the food supply. Ongoing engagement with industry, agriculture, trade and processing sectors will prove essential in terms of product reformulation.

Subject of research is theoretical, methodological and practical foundations for managing the competitiveness of the food industry, aimed at sustainable development of the economy. Purpose of the article is to substantiate the relationship between the competitiveness of the food industry with a strategic focus on sustainable development, to assess the level of competitiveness of the main branches of the food industry, identify criteria and directions for increasing the competitiveness of enterprises in the industry as the basis for ensuring sustainable development of the economy. Research methods. To achieve the goal of the study, general scientific and special methods were used: dialectical and logical – to generalize the scientific foundations of ensuring sustainable development of industries and enterprises of the economy; system analysis – to substantiate the directions of increasing competitiveness for the implementation of the principles of sustainable development; economic and statistical – for processing statistical data and assessing the competitiveness of enterprises and industries; graphic – for generalization and visual presentation of information. Results of the research. A methodological approach is proposed, with the help of which the criteria for increasing the competitiveness of the food industry in relation to the strategic directions of sustainable development of the Ukrainian economy are identified. Potentially competitive trade marks in selected food industries are identified. It is substantiated that maintaining the competitive level of the food industry in the domestic and foreign markets, aimed at strategically ensuring sustainable development of the economy, requires manufacturers to expand the range of products and constantly improve their quality, introduce new, resource-saving technologies, and provide their own production with raw materials. The main burden in this direction now falls on large agri-food enterprises that have the appropriate financial and human resources, as well as a strategic vision of the future of the domestic economy and their place in it. Scope of the results. The research results are of a scientific and practical nature and can be used by scientists in further studies of competitiveness. They can serve as a source of reference information and are used by economists, specialists from food and processing industries, government officials, researchers, teachers, graduate students and students of higher educational institutions.

Personal computers (PC) and high level programming techniques have been developing so rapidly during last decade leading to new and exciting opportunities in the field of education. The purpose of this research was to develop food processing virtual labs as efficient teaching and study tools for food processing courses using user-friendly computer languages (VC++, MFC and OpenGL). A 3D graphic technique was employed in this study as a specific objective to generate 3D graphics in the visualization mode.
According to functionalities, virtual labs were designed for three basic simulations: (1) Calculation simulations, which perform various calculations related to food processing. These simulations help users to remember and understand the formula used in process calculations. Several simple concept calculations were included: conduction heat transfer in steady state through individual and composite slabs; two-component mass balance systems, Pearson rule applications; freezing and thawing time calculations; (2) Animation simulations, which are aimed to visualize processing scenarios for different physical phenomena or working principles. Included in these simulations were: conduction heat transfer through single and multiple walls under steady state; mixing processes involving two and three component systems and Pearson rule concept; freezing and thawing processes through slab, cylinder, and sphere, the three regular shapes, agitation thermal processing modes which include axial agitation and end-over-end agitation in rotational retort; (3) Virtual equipment simulations, which are aimed to dynamically simulate a real operating environment and to demonstrate equipment working principle, internal structure, and operating procedures. The simulated equipment include a horizontal retort used in thermal processing and a high pressure processing equipment used in non-thermal processing.
The food processing virtual labs provide a new way in teaching and learning, with no risk, time or place limitations, and are cost effective. The simulated scenarios and equipment can be used as teaching tools in food processing courses, which provide an efficient way to the instructor/assistant. Instructor/assistant can dynamically and repeatedly demonstrate the operating process for the simulated equipment in a vivid and interested manner. Also students can get intuitive understanding by viewing these simulations. Computers are the waves of the future; however, traditional learning techniques should not be forgotten.*
*This dissertation is a compound document (contains both a paper copy and a CD as part of the dissertation). The CD requires the following system requirements: Windows 95 or higher.

This research was undertaken to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of a Canada/U.S. free trade agreement on six B.C. food and beverage processing industries. The objective was achieved by building a partial equilibrium model simulating changes in trade policy. The six industries were modelled as oligopolists in which the degree of oligopolistic behaviour and the industries' characteristics were captured through specified parameters. Following the abolition of trade barriers the model allowed the industries to rationalize, where necessary, and the highest-cost firms in an industry left for the benefit of lower-cost ones. The final effect is measured for each industry through changes in output, employment, trade volume and prices. As different policy scenarios have been simulated for each industry, the results obtained are quite diverse but they generally follow the a priori expectations. In open industries such as meat, fruit and vegetable and flour mixes, results, however differents for each scenario, tend to leave the industries in a better off or no worse off situation. For heavily protected industries like dairy and poultry, very sensitive to the elimination or not of the quota system, the range of possible results between the scenarios is pronounced. It was concluded that the final effect of the abolition of trade barriers on each industry cannot be assessed specifically but in rather general terms.
Land and Food Systems, Faculty of
Graduate

Thesis (MSc Food Sc )--Stellenbosch University, 2002.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa is a developing country that relies heavily on its agricultural sector for economical welfare especially in the Western Cape Province. However, development gives rise to new technologies, new products, economical stability and unfortunately also to the production of larger volumes of liquid and solid waste. Anaerobic composting is becoming a very attractive treatment option for solid waste disposal because of its unique operational advantages and two valueadded by-products, compost and biogas. Over the last decade progress has been made in anaerobic digestion of solid wastes, but no literature could be found on the anaerobic composting of apple and peach pomace. The main objective of this study was to develop a method to anaerobically compost apple and peach pomace. In the first phase important operational parameters were identified and a method was developed to optimise the parameters. In the second phase of the study, the scaling-up and optimisation of the process were the major objectives. During the first phase of this research 2 L modified glass containers were used as composting units. The most important operational parameters (leachate pH, inoculum source and size, and initial moisture levels) were identified. Anaerobic compost from previous tests, brewery granules and anaerobic sludge were also used as inocula and evaluated for the best source of microbes. After optimising all the identified parameters, good results were obtained, which included higher biogas production, good volume reductions, less bad aromas and a compost product with a neutral pH. After developing the 2 L laboratory-scale method to compost the apple pomace anaerobically, the next step was to ascertain if the method would work if larger volumes of solid fruit waste were composted. A special 20 L composting unit made of PVC was designed to suit the operational requirements of the anaerobic composting process. It was also decided to mix apple pomace and peach pulp together and to use this solid waste source as part of the composting substrate. Different inocula, including cattle manure, anaerobic sludge, brewery granules and anaerobic compost produced in the previous tests, were used. Although good results were obtained with the anaerobic compost and cattle manure as inoculum, the aim was also to decrease the composting period by shortening the pH stabilisation period. To achieve this, it was decided to add NaHC03 to the substrate to be composted to facilitate a faster pH stabilisation. The composting period was subsequently shortened to 25 days with satisfactory results, which included a volume reduction, biogas production and faster pH stabilisation. An upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) bioreactor was also used to assist the composting process by facilitating the removal of the VFA's present in the composting leachate. This proved to be a valuable addition to the composting process as the UASB bioreactor also provided the composting units with a 'moisturising liquid', which was 'enriched' with a consortium of active anaerobic bacteria when the effluent from the bioreactor was re-added to the composting units. With all the operational parameters in place, good results were obtained and these included a volume reduction of 60% (m/m), a good biogas production, a composting period of only 25 days, a compost that was free of bad aromas, a final compost pH of > 6.5, final leachate COD values of less than 3 000 rnq.l", and a final leachate VFA's concentration of between 0 and 250 rnq.l". If in future research further scaling-up is to be considered, it is recommended that the composting unit be coupled directly to the UASB bioreactor, thus making the process continuous and more practical to operate. If the operational period of the anaerobic composting set-up could be further shortened and the inoculum adapted so that the process could be used for the treatment of other difficult types of solid wastes, it would probably be advantageous for the fruit processing industry to use this method as an environmental control technology.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika is 'n ontwikkelende land wat baie afhanklik is van die sukses van die landbousektor vir ekonomiese welstand, veral in die Wes Kaap Provinsie. Ontwikkeling gaan gepaard met nuwe tegnologie, nuwe produkte, ekonomiese stabiliteit en daarmee saam gaan die produksie van groter volumes vlooiebare en soliede afvalprodukte. Anaërobiese kompostering is tans besig om opgang te maak as en doeltreffende behandelingstegnologie vir vaste afvalstowwe. Tydens die laaste dekade is baie vooruitgang gemaak in die veld van anaërobiese vertering asook kompostering van afvalmateriaal met en hoë vaste stof inhoud. Anaërobiese kompostering van appel- en perskepulp, afkomstig van die versappingsindustrie, het tot dusver min aandag geniet. Die hoofdoel van hierdie navorsing was om 'n anaërobiese komposterings metode te ontwikkel vir die beheer van vrugte afval om sodoende die basis neer te lê vir en nuwe tegnologie wat baie voordele (biogas en kompos) inhou. In die eerste fase is die belangrikste operationele parameters geïdentifiseer om sodoende beter beheer oor die anaërobiese proses uit te oefen. In die tweede fase is die anaërobiese proses wat gedurende die eerste fase ontwikkel is, opgeskaal om optimum resultate te verkry. Gedurende die eerste fase van hierdie verhandeling was 2 L gemodifiseerde glas houers gebruik as komposteringseenhede. Die belangrikste operasionele parameters (pH beheer, inokulasie grootte, vloeistofvlakke en hoeveelheid vog asook vlugtige vetsuur produksie en verwydering) vir die beheer van die anaërobiese komposteringsproses was geïdentifiseer en gebruik as uitgangspunt om 'n anaërobiese komposteringsmetode te ontwikkel. Anaërobiese slyk, brouery granules en anaërobiese kompos van vorige eksperimente was as inokula gebruik. Gedurende hierdie studies was goeie resultate verkry en het 'n hoë biogas produksie, goeie volume reduksies, vermindering van slegte aromas en kompos met 'n neutrale pH ingesluit. . Nadat hierdie goeie resultate met die 2 L laboratorium-skaal metode verkry was, was groter volumes vaste vrugte afval gebruik om te bepaal of dieselfde metode toegepas kan word op en groter skaal. Spesiale 20 L komposteringseenhede was ontwerp om aan die operasionele vereistes van 'n anaërobiese proses te voldoen. Dit was ook besluit om appel pulp met perske pulp te meng en te gebruik as deel van die komposteringssubstraat. Verskeie inokula was weereens gebruik en het die volgende ingesluit: vars beesmis, anaërobiese slyk, brouery granules en anaërobiese kompos van vorige eksperimente. Hoewel baie goeie resultate met vars beesmis en anaërobiese kompos as inokula verkry was, was 'n volgende doel gewees om die kompoterings tydperk te verkort deur die pH vinniger te stabiliseer. Daar was besluit om NaHC03 by die komposteringssubstraat te voeg en so 'n vinniger pH stabilisasie te fasiliteer. 'n UASB ('upflow anaerobic sludge blanket') bioreaktor was ook gebruik om die komposteringsproses aan te help deur die vlugtige vetsure wat in die kompostloog teenwoordig was, te verwyder. Die insluiting van die bioreaktor in die anaërobiese komposteringsproses het bygedra tot die sukses van die proses deurdat die uitvloeisel as 'n vogmiddel vir die komposteringseenhede gebruik was en 'n konsortium van aktiewe anaërobiese bakterieë bevat het. Nadat al die operationele parameters in plek was, was goeie resultate bereik en het die volgende ingesluit: 'n volume reduksie van 60% (m/m), goeie biogas produksie, 'n komposteringstyd van 25 dae, 'n kompos wat vry was van slegste aromas, 'n finale kompos pH van >6.5, finale loog CSB van <3 000 rnq.l' en 'n finale vetsuur konsentrasie van tussen 0 en 250 mq.l'. lndien verdere navorsing onderneem word, word dit aanbeveel dat die UASB bioreaktor direk aan die komposteringseenheid gekoppel word om sodoende die proses meer aaneenlopend en die proses prakties makliker uitvoerbaar te maak. Indien die operationele tydperk nog korter gemaak kan word en die inokulum aanpasbaar kan wees om moeilik verteerbare afvalprodukte te akkomodeer, sal hierdie tegnologie baie voordelig wees as 'n metode om omgewingsbesoedeling te beheer

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 91 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 88-91). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

This research investigated the development of a balanced scorecard for a frozen vegetable processing plant. The balanced scorecard can be utilised as a strategic management and performance measurement system. First, an overview of the balanced scorecard concept was presented. Its four perspectives, namely financial, customer, internal business process, and learning and growth were explained. Thereafter, the process of developing a balanced scorecard was outlined and the translation of a firm’s vision into measurable objectives and targets was discussed. Finally, the literature study evaluated the development of balanced scorecards by means of selected case studies. This included an analysis of the successes and failures of balanced scorecards in practice. The research methodology consisted of: (a) A literature study to determine a framework for developing a balanced scorecard. (b) Interviews and workshops to gather the primary data required to develop a balanced scorecard. The development of a balanced scorecard for a frozen vegetable processing plant using the findings from (a) and (b) above. The following recommendations were made: · Targets and action plans should be developed for the outstanding strategic objectives of the plant, and all key performance measurements should be formalised on key performance area documents. All role players should be involved in this process. · All employees must be exposed to, and understand the plant’s vision, mission statement and the purpose of the balanced scorecard. · All employees need to understand how their actions impact on other employees and the well-being of the plant. They must have set objectives and targets that can be measured. · To increase the chance of a successful scorecard implementation, regular feedback must be provided to all employees, and managers must hold people accountable for using the system.

The purpose of this research project was to establish a formula optimization computer program to be used for quality control in the meat processing industry. In contrast to linear programming, such a program would search for the best quality formulations that meet predetermined product specifications within allowable cost ranges. Since quality as a function of the ingredients has been found to be explained better by nonlinear equations, the program had to be able to handle nonlinear equations as objective functions as well as constraints to make it an effective formula optimization method. The first part of the study established the IBM BASIC formula optimization computer program (FORPLEX). The FORPLEX is based on the modified version of the Complex method of Box. The FORPLEX was found to be effective in the optimization of nonlinear objective function problems that were linearly constrained, making it suitable for formula optimization purposes. The second part of this study involved the development of statistically significant quality prediction equations for a 3-ingredient model frankfurter formulation. The three ingredients were: pork fat, mechanically deboned poultry meat and beef meat. Ingredient-quality equations were generated through mixture experimentation. Specific quality parameters were evaluated at observation points given by an extreme vertices design. Scheffe's canonical special cubic model for three components was fitted to the experimental data using multiple regression analysis. The statistical validity of the equations for prediction purposes was assessed by analysis of variance, adjusted multiple coefficient of determination, standard error of the estimate and analysis of residuals. Fourteen of 17 regression models developed were considered adequate to be used for prediction purposes. In order to have a better understanding of the relationship between ingredient proportions and the quality parameters, three different techniques were used: (a) response surface contour analysis, (b) correlation analysis and (c) scatterplot matrices analysis. The third part of this study consisted of the computational optimization of frankfurter formulations using the FORPLEX program. Several frankfurter formulation optimization trials were performed. In each trial, different combinations of quality parameters were considered measures of the formulations' quality. Target quality values were either selected based on a target formulation or were individually selected. In both cases the FORPLEX was able to find best quality formulations that met the constraints imposed on them. Differences between predicted and target quality values existed in all the computed optimum formulations when the target values were individually selected. Differences existed because it was difficult for the formulations to meet all the target quality values. Target quality values should be selected carefully since failure to obtain formulations that meet the target quality as closely as possible lay not with the performance of the FORPLEX but with the selection of the target quality values. Five optimum formulations found by FORPLEX were compared with seven least-cost formulations which were found by increasing the lower limit of the fat binding constraint. The predicted quality of each FORPLEX optimum formulation was close to its respective target quality. The least-cost formulations showed, in general, considerable departure from the target quality values set in the FORPLEX formulations. The adequacy of the models for predicting the quality of frankfurter formulations could not be evaluated since the meat ingredients had been stored frozen for 6 months. The models did not account for the effect of extended frozen storage on the quality of the formulations. Results of this study indicated that formula optimization based on the Complex method (FORPLEX) is the more suitable technique for food formulation. The FORPLEX may be able to replace linear programming computer programs currently being used in the processed meat industry.
Land and Food Systems, Faculty of
Graduate

The cyclic nature of the beef industry is dependent on the supply and demand transaction initiated by consumers’ acceptability of quality meat products. When purchasing beef at the grocery store, consumers are dependent on USDA grades and visual appraisal; consumers expect consistency in products. Upon this appraisal, quality is determined by the color, marbling content, and texture of a particular retail cut, as well as cooked characteristics of tenderness, flavor, and juiciness. Variability in meat tenderness is a major quality defect of beef (Morgan et al., 1991b; Smith et al., 1992). A common practice used by beef processors to extend the shelf life and improve tenderness of beef products is “enhancing”. Even though enhancing products is effective for water and color retention and improved tenderness, these additives can negatively impact flavor by giving a bitter, salty or metallic taste. This experiment was conducted to determine the effect of enhancement on the eating quality of USDA Select strip loin steaks. After a training session, six students in the agriculture department at Western Kentucky University were selected to serve on a sensory panel. The panel members evaluated tenderness, juiciness, flavor, off-flavor, overall acceptability, and saltiness. The USDA Select strip loin steaks were enhanced with a 12% solution of sodium and potassium phosphate and USDA Choice strip loin steaks were non-enhanced. Results indicated the enhanced product was inferior for all palatability measures (P<.05). Enhanced USDA Select strip loin steaks were rated as being lower for tenderness, juiciness, flavor, overall acceptability, and more salty. Also, the enhanced strip loin steaks received significantly higher evaluations for off-flavor (P<.01). These data suggested that a 12% solution of sodium and potassium phosphates administered to USDA Select strip loin steaks lowered consumer satisfaction.

AbstractThe main goal of this chapter is to share the technical details and best practices for setting up a scalable Big Data platform that addresses the data challenges of the food industry. The amount of data that is generated in our food supply chain is rapidly increasing. The data is published by hundreds of organizations on a daily basis, in many different languages and formats making its aggregation, processing, and exchange a challenge. The efficient linking and mining of the global food data can enable the generation of insights and predictions that can help food safety experts to make critical decisions. All the food companies as well as national authorities and agencies may highly benefit from the data services of such a data platform. The chapter focuses on the architecture and software stack that was used to set up a data platform for a specific business use case. We describe how the platform was designed following data and technology standards to ensure the interoperability between systems and the interconnection of data. We share best practices on the deployment of data platforms such as identification of records, orchestrating pipelines, automating the aggregation workflow, and monitoring of a Big Data platform. The platform was developed in the context of the H2020 BigDataGrapes project, was awarded by communities such as Elasticsearch, and is further developed in H2020 The Food Safety Market project in order to enable the setup of a data space for the food safety sector.

‘Agricultural products and trade’ considers what the agricultural industry as a whole produces, and the working of the local and international markets into which its output is sold, including the effects of demand and supply. The two biggest categories of farm product are food and livestock feed for farm and companion animals, but other important products include plant and animal fibres, fuels, and pharmaceuticals. Farmers are also responsible for providing a range of ‘ecosystem services’. Some food products can be grown and processed on site, but the bulk of the world’s agricultural output needs further processing with entire industries having developed to process cereals, milk, and meat.

This chapter aims to explore the feasibility of using blockchain in the beef supply chain to reduce waste. A mono-method, qualitative, inductive, single case study approach was taken on a cross-sectional scale from June 2018 to August 2018, with two individuals interviewed: a beef and a blockchain expert. The case study also involved observations, a field visit, and other secondary source data. Beef is a high demand, valuable food product with a limited shelf life. By using blockchain in conjunction with RFID and sensor technologies, farming and processing stages in the beef supply chain can be streamlined. Firstly, using the technology to monitor the animals on the farm and during transportation can reduce the amount of water and energy wasted. Secondly, blockchain can be used to establish exactly when and where the meat is cut and packaged, improving the accuracy of information between supply chain entities, resulting in improved inventory management, specifically more accurate delivery times and lengthened product shelf lives.

The goal of this chapter is to analyze the socio-economic role of value-added agriculture (VAA) for Central Asian (CA) countries. The agricultural sector of the region provides raw materials for the food, textile, and leather industry. Cotton, wheat, rice, and fruit (fresh and dried) play an important role in the foreign trade of each CA country. These countries have unrealized potential for storing, freezing, processing, and packaging of the wide nomenclature of fruit, food production, and drinks with the organization of their further exports to perspective markets. Adding value to agricultural products lead to increasing the share of finished goods in export, supplying import-substituting products, improving infrastructure in rural areas, providing new jobs, and growing farmers' income. Based on the analysis, the authors recommend using value-added agriculture for the CA countries by attracting domestic and foreign investments to rural areas, establishing tax incentives, and allocating preferential credits for agribusiness.

Like other domains of life, the food processing industry is also not untouched by the use of artificial intelligence. Though this industry has not been amenable to technology in the past, AI will play the role of catalyst in this industry going forward. Many working people who live alone in far-away cities and students living in PG have resorted to either consuming ready-to-eat food or ordering take-aways from restaurants. Moreover, people opting for tiffin service are usually bound to a single vendor for an indefinite period, giving them fewer options for customization and portion size. This chapter presents a case study for creating an AI-based platform where users can decide which supplier they want their meals from. The system will present the user with nearest tiffin suppliers who can provide home-cooked meals on weekly or monthly subscription bases. The user will also be able to customize the meal quantity and frequency. It will also empower homemakers to start their small businesses and have financial independence from the comfort of their homes.

This article introduces a comprehensive study of the food processing and agricultural companies in three large cities and their regions. The research is focused on data from Kyiv, Lviv, and Kharkiv., incl their suburban areas. General demographic information, as well as major economic and social parameters, were analyzed for specific years: from 1995 to 2020 (2019 in some cases). In the context of the research work, three major industry areas were picked, grain and bread, milk and dairy products, meat, and poultry production. The author constructed company profile data for the given industry areas for each of the research cities. On the given research author noted current challenges that large cities face about food supply and production.

The industrial production has experienced a technological revolution in the recent past decades. The technological revolution influenced the agriculture industry too. The important areas in the change are not limited to innovation in farming, novel production of agriculture-based tools and equipment, transportation and consumption of food across the globe, marketing the agriculture products, and digitalization. Digitalization is the involvement of digital technology in the existing field for easing the mechanism of handling, processing, recording the data. Digitalization enables sustainable farming. It is required desperately to develop this technology because there is a substantial reduction of clean water and depletion of aquifers effects the cultivation. With the technology, the quantity and quality of the food has to be managed to feed the global population. The familiar digitization technology that makes the agri-industrial sector to experience growth are artificial intelligence, machine learning, sensor networks, internet of things, robotics, cloud data.

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) are facing several problems due to the pandemic. The Food Processing Industry (FPI) is considered the sunrise sector of MSME. FPI establishes linkages and synergy amongst the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. More than 40000 registered and 25 lakh unregistered food processing units exist in India, in which 7 million labours are engaged. Due to the sudden lockdown, huge quantities of raw materials and finished products have started to rot, and many units have been forced to shut down, and a huge number of workers in this industry have lost their jobs. The industry needed strong Government intervention to survive this crisis. The study has tried to focus on the impact of lockdown on FPI and the role of the government in boosting this industry during the current crisis period. The study is based on secondary data. The Central Government has tried to boost the industry by announcing a financial package of Rs. 10,000 crores for the establishment of micro food enterprises, changing the definition of MSME and providing relaxation in tax and other laws. A positive approach by the Central Government will definitely support the food processing industry to turn around under this critical situation.

This article contends that feature selection is an important pre-processing step in case the data set is huge in size with many features. Once there are many features, then the probability of existence of noisy features is high which might bring down the efficiency of classifiers created out of that. Since the clinical data sets naturally having very large number of features, the necessity of reducing the features is imminent to get good classifier accuracy. Nowadays, there has been an increase in the use of evolutionary algorithms in optimization in feature selection methods due to the high success rate. A hybrid algorithm which uses a modified binary particle swarm optimization called mutated binary particle swarm optimization and binary genetic algorithm is proposed in this article which enhanced the exploration and exploitation capability and it has been a verified with proposed parameter called trade off factor through which the proposed method is compared with other methods and the result shows the improved efficiency of the proposed method over other methods.

"Contract catering industry is concerned with the production of ready-to-eat meals for schools, hospitals and private companies. The structure of this market is highly competitive, and customers are rarely willing to pay a high price for this catering service. A single production sites may be demanded up to 10.000 meals per day and these operations can hardly be managed via rule of thumbs without any quantitative decision support tool. This situation is common at several stages of a food supply chain and the methodologies presented in this paper are addressed to any food batch production system with similar complexity and trade-offs. This paper proposes an original KPI dashboard, designed to control costs, time and quality efficiency and helping managers to identify criticalities. Special emphasis is given on food safety control which is the management’s main concern and must be carefully monitored in each stage of the production. To calculate the value of KPIs a Montecarlo simulation approach is used to deal with production complexity and uncertainty. A case study showcases the potential of simulation in this complex industrial field. The case study illustrates an application of the methodology on an Italian company suffering local recipe contamination. The company aims at defining the best standard for production, identifying cycles being sustainable from an economic and environmental point of view."

The United States is the second largest citrus producer in the world. Florida and California are the two major producing states. While oranges from California are mainly used for fresh fruit consumption, more than 90% of oranges produced in Florida are processed to juice (FAO 2008). Consumers demand high quality and convenient products with natural flavor and taste, and appreciate the “fresh” perception of minimally processed juices. They also look for safe, natural, and healthy products without additives and preservatives. New processing technologies promise to meet all these demands without compromising food safety. Commercial orange juice is thermally processed to inactivate pectinesterase (PE) and spoilage organisms. Active PE causes clarification of orange juice by cloud loss, which is considered a quality defect (Boff et al. 2003). Thermal processing can be detrimental to the organoleptic and nutritional qualities of the juice (Sloan 1995), so the development of non-thermal technologies (Barbosa-Canovas et al. 1998) is desirable in the citrus juice industry. Dense phase carbon dioxide (DPCD) is a non-thermal technology that can inactivate certain micro-organisms and enzymes at temperatures low enough to avoid the thermal effects of traditional pasteurization. This technology relies on the chemical effect of CO2 on micro-organisms and enzymes. DPCD pasteurization technology is commercially available. Most of the commercialization efforts so far have been from Praxair Inc. (Burr Ridge, IL). Based on technology licensed from the University of Florida (Balaban et al. 1988, 1998), Praxair developed a continuous system which uses the DPCD process as a non-thermal alternative to thermal pasteurization (Connery et al. 2005). This system has been commercialized under the Trade Mark “Better Than Fresh (BTF).” To date, Praxair has constructed four mobile BTF units for processing about 1.5 liters per minute for demonstration purposes. In addition, a commercial scale unit of 150 liters per minute was also constructed (Connery et al. 2005) and tested at an orange juice processing plant in Florida. There are other commercialization efforts. The excellent taste of the juice processed with this new technology was demonstrated in three independent sensory panels that compared juice treated with this system to that of fresh squeezed juice. In all the tests, no difference could be detected. It is important that CO2 is completely saturated in the juice if DPCD is to be successful. Saturation (equilibrium solubility) depends on the pressure, temperature, and composition of the juice. Until recently, the exact amount of CO2 to be used in DPCD processing was unknown since solubility data was unavailable at different pressures, temperatures, and juice compositions, and an excess amount was used. To optimize the use of CO2 in this non-thermal process, new equipment has been developed to measure the solubility of CO2 in liquid systems and juices. The objective of this paper is to present a general review of the applications of DPCD to citrus juices and to introduce the use of new equipment developed at the University of Florida to determine the solubility of CO2 in citrus juices. Paper published with permission.

Abstract The processing of frozen foods places high demands on the strength and edge retention of knives, which are typically made of chromium steels due to their corrosion resistance. In meat processing, in addition to cutting, the knives also assume a transport function, where enormous bending forces can occur. A trade-off between strength and ductility is thus required when choosing a material and heat treatment. This paper describes the implementation of a path-controlled build-up welding system for complicated flat contours and the special properties of a newly developed corrosion-resistant powder optimized for knife edges. Field tests indicate that, with the plasma transferred arc welding process and new powders, service life can be extended by a factor of five. Paper text in German.

The aim of the paper is to is to quantify differences in structural and economic indicators between participants and nonparticipants of the investment support programmes in the Czech food industry at the beginning of the old programming period (2007). Research was conducted on a dataset of supported projects from the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Industry and Trade combined with structural and economic indicators of participating and nonparticipating companies provided by MagnusWeb database. Final database contained 1 225 companies. However, not all indicators were available for all companies. Original set of variables was selected through Principal Component Analysis. Propensity to be supported was calculated through probit regression. Public investment support has had pretensions to increase productivity of the food industry as well as the added value of agricultural production by supporting many operations in agricultural processing and marketing. Ex-post evaluation of the “old” programming period 2007–14 shows that companies with larger size, lower trade margin, optimal liquidity, lower debt ratio and higher credit debt ratio had higher propensity to be supported. Conclusions about size and credit debt ratio follow previous research by other authors that small companies had lower chance to be supported because of more difficult access to good advisory services and bank loans.

In the food industry, it is hoping high value-aided product and the increase in efficiency of food processing. On the other hand, we get an experimental result that the load of the shock wave improves an extraction of food, and soften food. But, the safe and high efficiency pressure vessel for the processing is necessary to apply these technologies to the food processing field actually. Therefore, we are planning the development of the pressure vessel for food processing. The fundamental data of the shock loading to food are necessary in order to make suitable vessel. As for these data, it is variety the specifications required by the kind of food and effect to expect. We report the result that shock wave loading was done to various food.

Anaerobic treatment technology for wastewater has developed rapidly over the last decade. The major driving forces are the low operating costs and the energy benefit derived from the methane generated. Also, increasing Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) surcharges imposed on industrial sewer discharges can often be minimized by anaerobic treatment alone. A variety of new technologies has emerged to treat the various types of wastewater produced. The food and citrus processing industry produce wastewater both low and high in BOD and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) as well as other unique constituents. The advantages and disadvantages of the different types of technologies are discussed, especially as they apply to the types of wastewater produced in the food processing industry. (Operating data from a full scale anaerobic plant treating a fermentation wastewater is presented.) The pilot plant scale study on a citrus wastewater is discussed. Paper published with permission.

The main aim of this paper is to examine international competitiveness of Turkey both in world market and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) in comparison with Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and to determine the value of trade between Turkey and CIS countries. The Revealed Comparative Advantage, Grubel-Lloyd (IIT) and Trade Intensity indices were calculated for sixteen commodity groups over the period 1996–2008 by using WTO data. The results suggest that Turkey is more competitive in CIS market and has comparative advantage in various products. Turkey has comparative advantage not only in agricultural products, food, manufactures, automotive products, textile and clothing as the world market but also in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery-transport equipment, office-telecom equipment and telecommunications vis-à-vis CIS countries. CIS countries exhibit similar comparative advantages in the world market. CIS countries have comparative advantage particularly in fuels and mining products, agricultural products, food, iron and steel but in a decreasing trend. The IIT results indicate that while Turkey approaches intra-industry specialization in agricultural products, food and textile but also manufacture products such as iron and steel, telecommunications equipment, machinery-transport and automotive products. CIS countries’ economy indicates increasing intra-industry trade in agriculture products, food manufactures, iron and steel. It is found that there is an intense relationship between Turkey and CIS countries except Belarus. Bilateral trade flow between Turkey and Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic and the Georgia is extremely larger than these countries’ importance in world trade.

Original proposal objectives: Our main original goal was to develop ultra-fast methods and instrumentation for the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply. We proposed to extend the QuEChERS approach to veterinary drugs and other contaminants, and conduct fast and ultra-fast analyses using novel 5MB-MS instrumentation, ideally with real samples. Background to the topic: The international trade of agricultural food products is a $1.2 trill ion annual market and growing. Food safety is essential to human health, and chemical residue limits are legislated nationally and internationally. Analytical testing for residues is needed to conduct risk assessments and regulatory enforcement actions to ensure food safety and environmental health, among other important needs. Current monitoring methods are better than ever, but they are still too time-consuming, laborious, and expensive to meet the broad food testing needs of consumers, government, and industry. As a result, costs are high and only a tiny fraction of the food is tested for a limited number of contaminants. We need affordable, ultra-fast methods that attain high quality results for a wide range of chemicals. Major conclusions, solutions and achievements: This is the third BARD grant shared between Prof. Amirav and Dr. Lehotay since 2000, and continual analytical improvements have been made in terms of speed, sample throughput, chemical scope, ease-of-use, and quality of results with respect to qualitative (screening and identification) and quantitative factors. The QuEChERS sample preparation approach, which was developed in conjunction with the BARD grant in 2002, has grown to currently become the most common pesticide residue method in the world. BARD funding has been instrumental to help Dr. Lehotay make refinements and expand QuEChERS concepts to additional applications, which has led to the commercialization of QuEChERS products by more than 20 companies worldwide. During the past 3 years, QuEChERS has been applied to multiclass, multiresidue analysis of veterinary drug residues in food animals, and it has been validated and implemented by USDA-FSIS. QuEChERS was also modified and validated for faster, easier, and better analysis of traditional and emerging environmental contaminants in food. Meanwhile, Prof. Amirav has commercialized the GC-MS with 5MB technology and other independent inventions, including the ChromatoProbe with Agilent, Bruker, and FUR Systems. A new method was developed for obtaining truly universal pesticide analysis, based on the use of GC-MS with 5MB. This method and instrument enables faster analysis with lower LaDs for extended range of pesticides and hazardous compounds. A new approach and device of Open Probe Fast GC-MS with 5MB was also developed that enable real time screening of limited number of target pesticides. Implications, both scientific and agricultural: We succeeded in achieving significant improvements in the analysis of hazardous chemicals in the food supply, from easy sample preparation approaches, through sample analysis by advanced new types of GC-MS and LCMS techniques, all the way to improved data analysis by lowering LaD and providing greater confidence in chemical identification. As a result, the combination of the QuEChERS approach, new and superior instrumentation, and the novel monitoring methods that were developed will enable vastly reduced time and cost of analysis, increased analytical scope. and a higher monitoring rate. This provides better enforcement, an added impetus for farmers to use good agricultural practices, improved food safety and security, increased trade. and greater consumer confidence in the food supply.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a member of the Hepeviridae family capable of infecting humans producing a range of symptoms from mild disease to kidney failure. Epidemiological evidence suggests that hepatitis E genotype III and IV cases may be associated with the consumption of undercooked pork meat, offal and processed products such as sausages [1]. A study carried out by the Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency (AHVLA), found hepatitis E virus contamination in the UK pork production chain and that 10% of a small sample of retail pork sausages were contaminated with the virus [2]. Furthermore, studies have confirmed the presence of HEV in the food chain and the foodborne transmission of Hepatitis E virus to humans [reviewed in 5]. Likewise, Scottish shellfish at retail [6] have also been found positive for HEV viral nucleic acid and some preliminary studies indicate that the virus is also detectable in soft fruits (L Scobie; unpublished data). There are current misunderstandings in what this data represents, and these studies have raised further questions concerning the infectivity of the virus, the processing of these foods by industry and the cooking and/or preparation by caterers and consumers. There are significant gaps in the knowledge around viral infectivity, in particular the nature of the preparation of food matrices to isolate the virus, and also with respect to a consistent and suitable assay for confirming infectivity [1,3]. Currently, there is no suitable test for infectivity, and, in addition, we have no knowledge if specific food items would be detrimental to cells when assessing the presence of infectious virus in vitro. The FSA finalised a comprehensive critical review on the approaches to assess the infectivity of the HEV virus which is published [3] recommending that a cell culture based method should be developed for use with food. In order to proceed with the development of an infectivity culture method, there is a requirement to assess if food matrices are detrimental to cell culture cell survival. Other issues that may have affected the ability to develop a consistent method are the length of time the virally contaminated sample is exposed to the cells and the concentration of the virus present. In most cases, the sample is only exposed to the cells for around 1 hour and it has been shown that if the concentration is less that 1x103 copies then infection is not established [3,5,10,11].

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.