Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)'

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
A prática do Planejamento, Previsão e Reabastecimento Colaborativo (em inglês, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment – CPFR) é um tema recente de integração de cadeias de suprimento que tem sido amplamente abordado na literatura acadêmica. O CPFR é considerado, para muitos pesquisadores, uma iniciativa mais completa e avançada que outros métodos de colaboração na cadeia, sendo, em alguns casos, uma extensão ou aprimoramento dos mesmos. O amadurecimento do tema é representado pela existência de revisões sistemáticas na literatura. Contudo, por ser o CPFR ainda um tema recente com acentuado crescimento de estudos na literatura, esta dissertação tem como objetivo realizar uma atualização destas revisões sistemáticas para verificar novos avanços no assunto, se lacunas ressaltadas já foram pelo menos parcialmente endereçadas e se tendências estão se consolidando. Mais ainda, em função da dificuldade de se implementar o CPFR na prática, um enfoque maior na análise dos estudos empíricos existentes com o objetivo de ir além de resultados parciais e particulares oferecidos na literatura é contemplado nesta dissertação, expandindo assim o escopo das revisões existentes com o foco específico em estudos empíricos. A dissertação apresenta seus resultados guiados em um framework de síntese para integração de cadeias focado em CPFR, tendo como base os passos para a condução de uma pesquisa empírica em gerência de operações, os blocos conceituais do CPFR e a contribuição dos estudos empíricos. Uma agenda para pesquisas futuras finaliza a dissertação.
The practice of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) is a recent topic of supply chain integration that has been extensively covered in academic literature. The CPFR is considered by several researchers a more complete and advanced initiative than other methods of collaboration in the chain, being in some cases an extension or improvement of them. The maturation of the theme is represented by the existence of systematic reviews in the literature. However, since CPFR is still a recent topic with a strong growth of studies in the literature, this dissertation aims to carry out an update of these systematic reviews in order to verify new advances in the subject, if highlighted gaps have been at least partially addressed, and also if trends have been consolidating. Moreover, due to the difficulty of implementing CPFR in practice, a greater focus on the analysis of existing empirical studies with the objective of going beyond partial and particular results offered in the literature is contemplated in this dissertation, thus expanding the scope of the existing reviews with specific focus on empirical studies. The dissertation presents its results guided by a synthesis framework for supply chain integration focused on CPFR, based on the steps for conducting an empirical research in operations management, the conceptual building blocks for CPFR and the contribution of the empirical studies. An agenda for future research concludes the dissertation.

Les entreprises manufacturières oeuvrant dans des domaines de haute technologie sont aujourd'hui confrontées à de multiples impératifs qui les incitent à collaborer avec des partenaires pour l'ensemble des leurs activités. Cette étude analyse l'impact de la planification de la collaboration sur la performance d'une chaîne d'approvisionnement. L'étude a été menée en deux phases dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement d'un équipementier du secteur des télécommunications. La première phase, l'étude de terrain, a comme objectifs de bien cerner les méthodes de collaboration et d'identifier les intérêts des différents membres de la chaîne d'approvisionnement. La deuxième phase, le questionnaire électronique, a comme objectifs d'analyser l'impact de la planification de la collaboration sur l'innovation au sein des entreprises de la chaîne d'approvisionnement, et d'évaluer l'effet médiateur des innovations sur la relation entre la planification de la collaboration et la performance de la chaîne.

Globalization that diminishes the barriers to trade worldwide has transformed the structure of production and increased the global competition in the textile and apparel industry. Especially, the elimination of quotas on January 2005 has totally changed the whole scenario of the apparel industry. A boom has been noticed in the emerging markets. Buyers shift their maximum orders to the low cost countries to increase their profit margins. China has gained its popularity among the European and American buyers because of the cheap labor and large scales of production and has become the world’s largest exporter of textile and apparel. The traditional competitive factor among the buyers is the lower cost of the product but the changing markets trends and demand volatility pushes the buyers to focus also on quality and lead times in addition to price. Due to the huge competition among the cluster of brands, retailers and wholesalers, lead time is becoming critical as longer lead times increases the risk of bottleneck to sales. China is the most important apparel supplier for the EU (especially Germany, the UK, and France) because it provides the cost benefit to the sourcing companies, but at the same time, it increases the lead times and also has more environmental impact in terms of pollution because of the long geographical distance.This thesis highlights that there is a remarkable rise of the labor cost in China, noticed for the last couple of years, which has reduced the competitive factor of price while sourcing from China. This is also an upcoming challenge for the whole world with regards to sourcing strategies. Many sourcing companies are shifting their shares away from China in order to achieve their desired profit margins. Turkey may be an alternative sourcing destination for the European apparel buyers and wholesalers because of its competitive labor cost, favorable government policies, flexibility, sustainability, and proximity to Europe. In this thesis, a pilot study is carried out to determine the relationship and effects of lead times on sales. This thesis also describes the effects of relationships among the business partners on the supply chain flow. It is noted through several pilot studies that the organizations who work in collaboration with their supply chain partners can significantly improve their supply chain efficiency by reducing the inventories, markdowns, lead times, lost sales, and increasing forecast accuracy. There are several tools in use for collaboration such as Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Just in Time (JIT), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), and Collaboration, Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR). In this paper the CPFR implementation steps, benefits, and hindrances are discussed in detail.
Program: Master programme in Applied Textile Management

Globalization that diminishes the barriers to trade worldwide has transformed the structure of production and increased the global competition in the textile and apparel industry. Especially, the elimination of quotas on January 2005 has totally changed the whole scenario of the apparel industry. A boom has been noticed in the emerging markets. Buyers shift their maximum orders to the low cost countries to increase their profit margins. China has gained its popularity among the European and American buyers because of the cheap labor and large scales of production and has become the world’s largest exporter of textile and apparel. The traditional competitive factor among the buyers is the lower cost of the product but the changing markets trends and demand volatility pushes the buyers to focus also on quality and lead times in addition to price. Due to the huge competition among the cluster of brands, retailers and wholesalers, lead time is becoming critical as longer lead times increases the risk of bottleneck to sales. China is the most important apparel supplier for the EU (especially Germany, the UK, and France) because it provides the cost benefit to the sourcing companies, but at the same time, it increases the lead times and also has more environmental impact in terms of pollution because of the long geographical distance.This thesis highlights that there is a remarkable rise of the labor cost in China, noticed for the last couple of years, which has reduced the competitive factor of price while sourcing from China. This is also an upcoming challenge for the whole world with regards to sourcing strategies. Many sourcing companies are shifting their shares away from China in order to achieve their desired profit margins. Turkey may be an alternative sourcing destination for the European apparel buyers and wholesalers because of its competitive labor cost, favorable government policies, flexibility, sustainability, and proximity to Europe. In this thesis, a pilot study is carried out to determine the relationship and effects of lead times on sales. This thesis also describes the effects of relationships among the business partners on the supply chain flow. It is noted through several pilot studies that the organizations who work in collaboration with their supply chain partners can significantly improve their supply chain efficiency by reducing the inventories, markdowns, lead times, lost sales, and increasing forecast accuracy. There are several tools in use for collaboration such as Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI), Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Just in Time (JIT), Customer Relationship Management (CRM), and Collaboration, Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR). In this paper the CPFR implementation steps, benefits, and hindrances are discussed in detail.
Program: Master programme in Applied Textile Management

Introduction: Nowadays beverage companies must focus on maintaining healthy finishedgoods inventory stocks in order to be able to decrease inventory costs, meet customerrequirements and to obtain competitive advantage. However many beverage SMEdon’t have an accurate planning and forecasting to manufacturing inventories. Thereforethey often face the problem of optimization in inventory management due to several differentreasons. As a result, company loses its competitiveness. Thus, there is a need tocoordinate Inventory activities of beverage SMEs to improve inventories’ planning. The purpose of this study is to analyze how inventory management is organized in a small Chinese beverage company. Frame of reference: This research is based on the theoretical framework relates with InventoryManagement (IM) and Retailer-managed inventory (RMI), vendor-managed inventory(VMI) and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR).Empirical Data were collected through personal interviews and organization documents. Methodology: The research strategy for this paper is a single case study. This strategy allows investigating topic in its real life context. The inductive approach is used for this research based on qualitative data. The major source of data collection was semi-structured interviews and the company's documents. For analyzing data categorization approach was applied. Conclusion: The study found that inventory management theories presented in scientificliteratures are used in practice. To achieve better inventory management for beverageSMEs, the authors summarize four importance parameters based on literatures and findings.The authors also provide some suggestions based on the importance parameters inthe conclusion to optimize the case company’s inventory management.

Colaboração na cadeia de suprimentos (SCC) é um tema que tem sido amplamente discutido na literatura e é aceito que a criação de uma cadeia de suprimentos sincronizada leva ao aumento da capacidade de resposta e a menores custos de estoque. O Planejamento, Previsão e Reabastecimento Colaborativo (CPFR) é considerado por muitos autores como a mais avançada e abrangente iniciativa em SCC. Apesar do crescente número de publicações sobre CPFR, a literatura acadêmica revela a ausência de uma pesquisa que sintetize o estado da arte sobre CPFR. Desta forma, esta dissertação tem como objetivo, por meio da revisão sistemática da literatura, reunir e integrar o conhecimento sobre CPFR como um processo de negócio e como uma prática de gestão. Foram analisados 629 resumos e 47 artigos foram selecionados para a revisão e classificação. A dissertação analisa os modelos de CPFR, apresenta os principais facilitadores e barreiras para a implementação do CPFR e as diferenças entre CPFR e outras iniciativas de SCC e seus impactos no desempenho da cadeia de suprimentos (SC). Um modelo conceitual (framework) é proposto para guiar e organizar a revisão da literatura. A estrutura do framework abrange todos os elementos constitutivos necessários para descrever os elementos individuais do CPFR (contexto, insumos, estrutura e processos e resultados), suas relações e o impacto sobre o desempenho da empresa. O framework também mostra o papel funcional vertical do CPFR em construir uma ponte entre os negócios e planos estratégicos corporativos dos membros da SC com as operações conjuntas na SC. Apesar de existirem vários modelos para o CPFR, não há um consenso sobre as diferentes configurações para o CPFR. Estas diferenças são atribuídas ao estágio de desenvolvimento em modelos de maturidade, a diferentes contextos e estratégias de implementação, de acordo com a pesquisa da contingência em gestão de operações, e a singularidade dos recursos e dependências entre as empresas na cadeia de suprimentos, conforme a visão baseada em recursos e a visão baseada na dependência. A responsividade aparece como o principal objetivo na implementação do CPFR e o custobenefício do CPFR deve ser comparado com os de outras iniciativas de SCC para a escolha da mais adequada à cadeia de suprimentos. Apenas três estudos confirmatórios relatam o impacto do CPFR na cadeia de suprimentos. Esta dissertação contribui para uma melhor compreensão do tema e fornece indicações para futuras pesquisas e práticas em CPFR e SCC.
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) is considered by many researches to be the most advanced and the most comprehensive Supply Chain Collaboration (SCC) initiative. Despite its relevance and growing number of publications, efforts to synthesise the overall state of the art in CPFR have been rather limited to date. As an effort to fill this gap, this dissertation aims to go beyond the highly dispersed work on CPFR by providing a systematic review of the literature and the key findings on the topic. The dissertation analyses CPFR models, discusses main enablers and barriers for implementation and CPFR and other SCC impact on Supply Chain (SC) performance. A framework is also proposed as an aide to assemble and organise the literature review. The structure of the framework embraces all the constitutive elements required to describe individual CPFR elements (context, inputs, structure and processes, outcomes and results), their relationships and impact upon firm performance. The framework also shows the vertical functional role of CPFR in bridging business and corporate strategic plans from SC members to joint SC operations. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the field and provides directions for future research and practice in CPFR and SCC.

The area of order picking has been widely studied but still there is no general approach covering all the potential variables of a unique case. Optimizing the product placement is a useful way to improve order picking through reduced travel distances and goes hand in hand with an appropriate batching strategy and routing policy. The existing methods are of mathematical basis and can be costly to implement and it is therefore necessary to develop a non-mathematical approach that can be used for distribution centers and in this particular case, the warehouse of a mail order company. Literature is reviewed to investigate the current situation of a large Swedish mail order retailer for the development of a unique product assignment strategy, taking into consideration potential variables. It was found out that a lot of trade-offs are being done all the time between travel distances of the SKUs. Also, it was found out that “cart blocking” might be a potential problem when using a turnover-based storage assignment strategy.

Business Administration, Business Process and Supply Chain Management Degree Project (master), 15 higher education points, 4FE06E, Spring 2013 Authors: Jeremy Bellina, Olegs Bodins, Soeren Krieger and Mathilde Olivier Tutor: Roger Stokkedal Title: Managing Upstream Supply Chain in Order to Decrease Inventory Level: A Case Study on the Paper Merchant Papyrus Sweden. Background: The research is based on Papyrus Sweden, a paper merchant, which is facing a decrease in the demand of paper products. It was identified that inventory level reduction is now crucial for the company in order to stay in the market. Therefore, Papyrus Sweden is focused on inventory level and tied-up capital reduction in order to decrease costs and increase net profit. Purpose: This thesis aims to analyze the current situation in Papyrus Sweden in terms of inventory level and activities related to suppliers, and prepare recommendations which could help Papyrus Sweden to reduce its inventory level. Method: The data has been collected through interviews with managers from the supply chain department as well as through a data sample from Papyrus Sweden database given to the researchers. All data was analyzed and compared with the literature review. Data received from the database was processed and transformed in Microsoft Excel in order to make the analysis. Results: The analysis identifies issues in material planning methods, safety stock calculation, ABC-XYZ classification and forecast calculation, on which Papyrus Sweden could act in order to decrease its inventory level. Furthermore, the researchers identify two solutions Papyrus Sweden could implement with its suppliers in order to reduce inventory level which are a Service Level Agreement and a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Keywords: inventory level, material planning method, safety stock, ABC-XYZ classification, forecast calculation, replenishment lead time, supplier relationship, information sharing, Service Level Agreement (SLA), Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative planning, forecast and replenishment system (CPFR).

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Trata da nova metodologia de planejamento colaborativo, previsão e reabastecimento, conhecida pela sigla CPFR. Aborda as principais lacunas das metodologias tradicionais, as oportunidades de negócios geradas, o modelo de negócios proposto pelo CPF R e suas etapas de implementação, as implicações sobre a organização, os principais problemas de implementação, metodologias e ferramentas de integração presentes nas empresas que utilizam o CPFR. Aponta oportunidades geradas pelo CPFR e características de integração presentes nas empresas que já utilizam o conceito.

During the last decade, research related to Supply Chain Management has got a great deal of attention. The focus has especially circulated around supply chain integration and centralisation due to the increasingly competitive global market. The aim of this thesis has been to investigate how the supply chain performance in international manufacturing companies could be improved. By having a qualitative approach, this thesis contributes to earlier conducted research by providing a holistic view on supply chain management. This is by the authors considered crucial to manage the complexity of supply chain management and supply chain change. The specific context examined in this thesis concerns the spare parts distribution of large international manufacturing companies. The methods used during the case study consisted of a thorough literature review, external interviews and workshops with experts within supply chain management and supply chain change, and several interviews with employees at different levels and functions at the focal company, Toyota Material Handling Europe. Two of the interviewed external experts were managers at the supply chain function at Volvo Construction Equipment and Ericsson. To answer the main research question, three sub-queries have been examined. The first one concerns what main areas of difficulty that can be identified in the current supply chain of the focal company and in international manufacturing companies in general. The second sub-query concerns which supply chain policies that could be used to solve identified areas of difficulty. Finally, the third sub-query concerns which prerequisites that could be identified to successfully manage change within supply chains. The results imply that Information and Inventory Management are the main supply chain related areas in need of improvements at the focal company, as well as in international manufacturing companies in general. Thereby supply chain performance could be improved if performance within these areas is enhanced. To solve these two identified areas of difficulty, four theoretical supply chain policies related to supply chain integration have been examined due to complexity, need of investments during an implementation, as well as each policy’s possibility to solve the identified areas of difficulty. The supply chain policy Vendor-Managed Inventory was considered the most appropriate policy for the focal company to implement. As a consequence, an evaluation of the focal company’s readiness to implement a Vendor-Managed Inventory policy was also conducted by using a supply chain readiness framework developed by Niranjan, Wagner and Nguyen (2012). Based on the literature review, including the theoretical evaluation of the appropriateness of implementing Vendor-Managed Inventory, together with the findings from the external expert interviews, the focal company is recommended to implement a Vendor-Managed Inventory strategy. However, the focal company is also recommended to see such an implementation as an opportunity to later investigate the possibility to also include large suppliers in the collaboration. This would increase the level of integration among supply chain members further and thereby secure the company has the possibility to receive the advantages associated with sharing information (including Points-of-Sales data) with all supply chain members.   From a theoretical perspective the conclusion is that Vendor-Managed Inventory, with its focus on supply chain integration through collaboration and information sharing among supply chain members, is considered appropriate to implement when companies want to improve performance in one or all of these areas. Furthermore, the usage of a consignment stock agreement might be an appropriate complement to Vendor-Managed Inventory due to the international context. However, the authors suggest that international manufacturing companies should strive towards including large suppliers in the supply chain collaboration to increase performance further. Thereby they should move towards capabilities promoted in the supply chain policy Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment, which advocate a higher level of integration than Vendor-Managed Inventory. Another main finding pinpoints the importance of a well-formulated and communicated vision in the beginning of a transformation, to manage supply chain change successfully. As a consequence, the authors of this thesis expanded the supply chain framework developed by Chopra and Meindl (2010) to also include vision. In addition, legal has been added as an important supply chain driver since it affects supply chain possibilities and decisions. The added parts are considered critical for the framework to be applicable in an international and rapidly changing business environment. Furthermore, the authors suggest the extended framework should be used to support companies evaluate the current and a desired future supply chain in accordance with examined change management literature.
Supply Chain Management har under det senaste decenniet fått mycket uppmärksamhet. På grund av en ökande internationell handel har forskningen framförallt behandlat Integration och Centralisering inom distributionskedjor. Syftet med denna studie har varit att undersöka hur man kan förbättra prestandan av distributionskedjan hos internationella tillverkningsföretag. Genom ett kvalitativt angreppssätt bidrar denna studie med ett holistiskt synsätt av Supply Chain Management, vilket av författarna är ansett kritiskt för att kunna hantera komplexiteten relaterad till Supply Chain Management och förändringsarbete inom detta område. Studiens forskningsfråga har kunnat besvaras genom att undersöka tre delfrågor. Den första behandlar att identifiera huvudproblemområden i distributionskedjan hos fokusföretaget samt internationella tillverkningsföretag generellt. Den andra delfrågan behandlar vilka teoretiska supply chain policies som skulle kunna användas för att lösa de identifierade problemområdena, medan den tredje och sista delfrågan handlar om att identifiera förutsättningar för att kunna hantera förändringsarbete av, och inom, distributionskedjor på ett lyckat sätt. Samtliga delfrågor och huvudfrågan har kunnat besvaras genom genomförandet av en litteraturstudie, intervjuer och workshops med externa områdesexperter inom Supply Chain Management och Supply Chain Change, samt interna intervjuer med anställda på olika avdelningar och nivåer inom fokusföretaget, Toyota Material Handling Europe. Två av de intervjuade experterna utgjordes av chefer på logistikavdelningen på två stora internationella tillverkningsföretag. Företagen i fråga utgjordes av Volvo Construction Equipment respektive Ericsson. Resultaten visar att Informations- och Lagerhantering anses vara de huvudområden inom Supply Chain Management, vilka är i störst behov av förbättringar och förändringar på fokusföretaget samt i stora internationella tillverkningsföretag generellt. Därmed kan prestandan av distributionskedjan förbättras om företag fokuserar på dessa två områden. För att förbättra Informations- och Lagerhanteringen har fyra teoretiska supply chain policies utvärderats, vilka alla mer eller mindre fokuserar på att öka integrationen mellan medlemmar inom distributionskedjan. Genom att utvärdera dessa supply chain policies med avseende på komplexitet, implementationskostnader samt möjlighet att lösa de identifierade huvudproblemområdena, har författarna kunnat dra slutsatsen att policyn Vendor-Managed Inventory bör vara mest passande att implementera på fokusföretaget. I och med detta resultat utvärderades fokusföretagets lämplighet att implementera Vendor-Managed Inventory utifrån en teoretisk modell utvecklad av Niranjan, Wagner och Nguyen (2012). Resultatet av denna utvärdering stödde det tidigare antagandet att Vendor-Managed Inventory är lämpligt för fokusföretaget att implementera. Författarna rekommenderar dock att en VMI-implementation ska ses som ett första steg varefter förtaget även skall utvärdera möjligheten att inkludera sina större leverantörer och därmed öka integrationen av distributionskedjan ytterligare. Detta för att verkligen uppnå de fördelar informationsdelning kan medföra om information delas med samtliga medlemmar i kedjan. Författarna har med hjälp av dessa resultat kunnat dra den teoretiska och generella slutsatsen att Vendor-Managed Inventory, med dess fokus på att öka integrationen i distributionskedjan genom ökat samarbete och ökad informationsdelning mellan distributionskedjans medlemmar, anses lämplig att implementera då företag vill eller behöver förbättras inom dessa områden. Vidare kan avtalsmodellen Consignment Stock komplettera Vendor-Managed Inventory i en internationell kontext genom användandet av en legal ägare av lager, oavsett lagerposition. Författarna rekommenderar även att stora internationella tillverkningsföretag bör sträva mot att inkludera sina större leverantörer och därmed öka integrationen av, och samarbetet inom, distributionskedjan. Detta skulle medföra att prestandan av distributionskedjan förbättras ytterligare. Därmed bör de utvecklas mot supply chain policyn Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment, vilken förespråkar en högre nivå av samarbete än Vendor-Managed Inventory. Vidare visar studien vikten av en välformulerad och kommunicerad Vision i början av större förändringsprojekt. Detta för att öka chanserna till lyckade och välmotiverade förändringar. I och med identifieringen av visionens vitala del i förändringsprojekt, vidareutvecklade författarna modellen; Supply Chain Decison-Making Framework, utvecklad av Chopra & Meindl (2010), till att även inkludera Vision. Dessutom adderades Legala aspekter, då de påverkar både beslutsfattande och möjligheter inom en internationell kontext. Både Vision och Legala aspekter anses av författarna vara kritiska delar för att modellen skall vara applicerbar i en internationell och föränderlig miljö. I linje med forskning inom förändringshantering som identifierats i litteraturen, anses Chopra & Meindl’s vidareutvecklade modell nu vara lämplig att användas som en hjälp för företag att utvärdera sin nuvarande och önskade framtida distributionsstruktur.

碩士
國立東華大學
企業管理學系
93
Abstract In the past time, the demand of building material suppliers and retailers for the building market was all planned, produced and mended the items by themselves. Due to risks and different capitalized costs, the suppliers and the retails had have different forecasts to the market and caused the increase number of stocks, the shortage of the item, the increases of the cost and missing the best selling time, etc. With the changing of the market, the tradition operation ways of building companies faced a severe challenge. Now, the tendency of supplying chain is that the suppliers and retailers make contracts to cooperate to plan, forecast and replenish. And the supplying chain between the suppliers and retailers will become tighter with information sharing. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards (VICS) in American propose a mode named CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment). It provides an application way of collaborative working and helps the suppliers and retailers cooperate. They share information of customer demands, market forecasting and result of forecasting through internet. It can help them collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment and organize a communication system to solve problems that happened during the working process. According to the characters of building material business, the demand and present situation, we’ll discuss CPFR theory, operation framework and practicing step. And analyses the practicability of putting CPFR in Taiwan market with Fuzzy Delphi Method. We also suggest the noticeable affaire and practicing policies of practicing CPFR to let the building material suppliers and retails cooperate to increase the value of supply chain.

碩士
正修科技大學
工業工程與管理研究所
107
Now facing the era of enterprise competition, basically, enterprises are through mutual cooperation to create mutually beneficial sharing, risk sharing business model, so enterprises through mutual alliances to grow together. In addition to the trading between both parties in the relationship between supply and demand, it can be said as the conversions into supply (retail), and (original equipment manufacturer) manufacturers of the relationship between supply and demand. Supply (retail) retail will be due to the uncertainty of demand and the situation of the (contract) manufacturer's output, resulting in a decline in profits, rising inventory costs and additional costs, resulting in friction between the two sides on the position of consideration. In order to avoid this risk, this study will use the concepts of CPFR, Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment to establish a mathematical model using Excel programming solution, give data scenario simulation, and explore the limitation of adjusting the range of output changes and the impact of changes in unit penalty cost on output distribution and profit. Allow both sides to coordinate capacity planning through this mathematical model to maximize profits and reach a consensus on supply and demand.

碩士
康寧大學
運籌與科技管理研究所
101
The use of Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) decrease the expenditures for merchandising, inventory, and logistics to make the end-to-end supply chain process more efficient. This study employed the self-employment fund in a detention center in the central section of Taiwan to explore the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA model) and regression model of carpentry, food and total income. The results suggested that lagged periods are inconsecutive in ARIMA model. For regression model, it is necessary to copy with variables of different intergrated order and autocorrelation of disturbance. Testing the forcasting accuracy, the results showed that the regression model is slightly better than the ARIMA model, but the difference is small. By Theil’s inequality coefficient, the forcasting ability of these two models is equal. Besides, the calculation of the income and the elasticity are both smaller than 1, so the raw materals of carpentry and food are necessary goods and their price is inelastic. It is suggested that the information, material and supplies, and products between each prisons and detention centers should be synchronously considered and then to cooperate politically. The efficient methods or procedures should be employed in the supply chain management to lower various costs. The suppliers, manufacturing, production forecast, inventory, and retail are suggested to intergrate to offer better services and products. Hopefully the inmates could be self-supporting and adapt themselves to the society after discharge.

碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
96
CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) is one of the applications of collaborative business. The stressed concept is the cooperation process of sellers and buyers on the supply chain in order to increase the handling efficiency. In the future, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind products—only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success. The replenishment model of CPFR is to fill out the order according to the sales prediction, order prediction, inventory strategy, and supply information. The precision of the replenishment model could affect both suppliers and customers. The former can distribute products properly and meet the different demands from the upcoming orders so as to reduce inventory; the latter are able to revise the inventory strategy and amount of order according to the order prediction. A few research papers aimed at the replenishment model, though, most still focus on the management issues like the process framework of CPFR and the implementation benefit. Hence, establishing both an information system that coordinates customer demand with suppliers and a collaborative replenishment model that increases the accuracy of predictions is fairly important. The phase of replenishment, as the subject of this study, will approach on parameters the collaborative replenishment model needs to input and combine evolution strategies with tabu search to establish a replenishment model under the process of CPFR.

碩士
國立臺北大學
資訊管理研究所
91
The popular supply chain management solution — Collaborative Planning, Forcasting, and Replenshment (CPFR) has been provided by many vendors. However, the current CPFR solutions are usually an ad hoc approach in nature by utilizing middleware to connect disparate ERP systems. These solutions neither employ a unified descriptive framework to facilitate portability and understanding, nor did the solution is amenable to popular information infrastructure. To amend the insufficiencies of current solutions, we use a popular business process modeling language — BPEL4WS to model the CPFR. We have successfully build the prototype using BPEL4WS to demonstrate the feasibililties.

碩士
國立臺灣科技大學
工業管理系
96
Abstract Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) is an industry leading initiative seeking to enhance supply chain collaboration between trading partners. CPFR is applied in order to increase sales for competitive consumer product. CPFR can improve supply processes through the visibility into customer demand and put the right product on the right shelf and in the right time. In order to increase the handling efficiency, the industries would compete on the whole supply chains behind the variety of products, only the industry that is capable of making accurate predictions according to the constantly changing market and reacts immediately has the chance of winning the competition. Being able to control the inventory and supply effectively would be one of the key factors leading to an industry’s success. The objective of this research is to investigate how to manage replenishment for multi-products in a collaborative rules where buyer decide sales forecast while order forecast and order generation are generated by seller. The evaluation of the model for several different scenarios will be investigated using Evolver 4.0, meta-heuristic Genetic Algorithm software. The results show that the scenario considering warehouse constraints and truckload shipments outperforms other scenarios with the minimum total cost.

碩士
國立政治大學
資訊管理研究所
92
It has been verified in pilot projects by many European and American Corporations that Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) can improve supply chain performance. Enterprises nowadays in Taiwan are implementing or going to implement CPFR, with hopes to reduce their supply chain operation cost, enhance logistic performance and increase their competition capability consequently. Under CPFR process and supply chain collaboration environment, a supply and demand both sides promised identical sales forecast with well forecasting performance for order decision making and cooperation is very important. Due to the dynamic complexities of both internal and external co-operate environment, many firms resort to qualitative, navie forecasting or other simple quantitative forecasting techniques and have many forecasts in their organization. However, these forecasting techniques lack the structure and extrapolation capability of quantitative forecasting models or without stable performance, while multi-forecasts providing different views of demand. Forecasting inaccuracies exist and typically lead to dramatic disturbances in sales order and production planning. This paper presents a hybrid forecasting model for sales forecasting requirements in CPFR. A three stage model is proposed that integrate the time series model, regression model and use genetic algorithm to determine its coefficients efficiently. Direct sales information and related planned events in both collaborated sides is used for individual product’s “week” sales forecasting. To verify this model, we experiment on two different products and produce forecasts with datum from one manufacturer in Taiwan and its international retailer. The results shows that the hybrid sales forecasting model has better forecasting performance than not only the causal-genetic forecasting model proposed by Jeong et al. (2002), but also ordinary regression model with no genetic training process.

碩士
臺灣大學
資訊管理學研究所
95
This study examines Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR), a web-based tool proposed by Voluntary Inter-Industry Commerce Standards (VICS) in 2002 to coordinate the various supply chain management activities. A varied number of steps in the CPFR process have been defined depending upon the level of detail and CPFR uses a cyclic and iterative approach to derive consensus future forecasts. Nevertheless, many obstacles to CPFR implementation have been reported in the literature because supply chain partners are skeptical and resistant to change. Therefore, this study aims at proposing a practicable and suitable CPFR process for Taiwan’s retail supply chain through analyzing and modifying the various CPFR processes defined previously. Furthermore, because the main purpose of CPFR is to provide the consensus future forecast, this study suggests an effective CPFR solution to help generating this information in the crucial and complex steps of the proposed CPFR process. The CPFR process for Taiwan’s retail supply chain consists of seven steps: developing collaborative agreement; creating joint business plan; creating consistent long-term sales forecast; creating consistent short-term sales forecast; creating consistent order forecast; confirming and generating order; and performance analysis. This study defines each step differently in detail for different supply chain structures and adds information feedback and reversed mechanisms between steps to enhance the original CPFR process. The CPFR solution proposed in this study consists of three modules: (1) Sales Forecasting, including input data analysis, automatic best forecast method learning, and future sales forecast calculation; (2) Replenishment Suggestion, including replenishment calculation and planned purchase order generation; (3) Performance Evaluation, including key performance index (KPI) calculation to evaluate the results of the collaboration. To show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed CPFR process and solution, a prototype was constructed and tested to demonstrate the power of the proposed CPFR process and solution, using scenario analysis and three real cases. As results, this CPFR process and solution for Taiwan’s retail supply chain can be shown to have excellent KPI performance in each scenario and each real case.

碩士
亞洲大學
資訊工程學系碩士班
95
In recent years, due to the advance of technology, increasing competitiveness between enterprises, the product life cycles are much shortened and the requirements of product customization are increased. Thus speed, flexibility, and synchronization have become the key factors for the enterprise to survive. To increase the competitiveness and effectively improve the organization processes of enterprises, Taiwan government promotes and fully supports the software industries to apply Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) for the enterprises to construct their own continuous process improvement mechanisms. The purpose is to enhance the competitiveness of the organization and deliver better quality products. Because of the lack of mutual reliance among the supply chain partners and the more complicated operation problems, establishing supply chain collaboration management, integrating information, and synchronizing operations are necessary for on-time delivery and reducing the short-supplied rate and inventory cost. Eventually, it will improve the relationships among the supply chain partners. Collaborative Planning, Forcasting Replenishment (CPFR) is the practice of supplier collaboration, and it can provide the collaborative partners to apply information technology to share and forcast the replenishment information. Also, it can help construct the sales prediction model for etire supply chain, and narrow down the gaps among collaborartive partners. Ultimately, it will reduce the inventory costs of entire supply chain, and increase the product availability and sales amount. This research applies the CPFR model proposed by VICS Association, and adopts IDEAL to the Supplier Agreement Management of Project Management Process Area in CMMI. Some supply chain management related tools are utilized as evaluation tools during the CMMI adoption. Furthermore, a supplier agreement process management information system is constructed in this research to provide an electronic platform for sales questionnaire design, supplier agreement management process progress and tsaks monitoring, and eventually to optimize the CMMI processes and to improve the product and service qualities efficiently.

碩士
國立成功大學
資訊管理研究所
92
Supply chain management (SCM) is an important issue recognized by academics and business people. Recently, the focus of SCM has shifted from integration and reengineering within an organization to streamlining and collaborating across different organizations. In 1996, Wal-Mart and its supplier started a project to improve their forecasting and replenishment collaboration merchandise. Details of the method in that project were defined as “Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)” by Volunteer Interindustry Commerce Standard (VICS). Many businesses, especially in America and Europe, have implemented this model and effectively improved their accuracy of forecasting, lowered the cost of stocks and decreased stock-outs. CPFR has, therefore, become a prevailing trend. 　　A complete CPFR model has nine step, many companies in developed countries have difficulties to implement the model due to their information management capability. It costs high manpower, time and budget, and causes risk to adopt CPFR and hinders willingness of businesses in many cases. In addition, the original CPFR model was designed for diverse partners in any supply chain, not for specific industry, which makes the model difficult to use for specific domain. 　　The objective of the research focuses on developing a “CPFR Lite model” suitable for a convenient store company and its upstream manufacturer in retailing industry, that considering their characteristics, trading processes and related capabilities. This lite model omits some collaboration works and fits for the case which the retailer is responsible for sale-forecasting. The lite model enables companies to transform their processes to the CPFR like, yet with limited time and costs on　implementation. A CPFR Lite Platform is also developed to support the new model. Finally, a case study is presented, in which scenario simulation shows the value and limitations of supplier-buyer coordination in coping with uncertainty in demand and delivery time.

博士
中原大學
工業與系統工程研究所
105
Due to the increasing market competition, shorter product life, small profit margin and rising customer service demand, after service quality is getting more and more important. Besides product design and function, after service is a vital decisive role in the success or fail in the new product introduction. Spare part availability will affect the speed of service, which directly impacts the service quality. Spare part lifecycle can be classified into four stages: preparation, production, EOL (End of Life) and EOS (End of Service) stages. In the preparation stage, due to lack of historical usage information, it is hard to apply traditional statistic technique to perform demand forecasting. Therefore, a different approach to forecast usage is necessary. The problem to new product sales forecasting can be done by extending the research done by Kahn (2002) who uses qualitative forecasting. In this study, we propose a JQM (Joint Qualitative Method)) method for forecasting the preparation stage of spare part demand. The key in JQM is centered in the similarity matrix, and by assuming the optimistic and pessimistic service level value of 90% and 60 % respectively. This standardization generates a method which enable user to choose the service level for the demand condition. For production and EOL stages, this study focusses in repairable spare part, since repairable spare part are likely the most expensive. Repairable spare part replenishing model can be classified into a multi-echelon inventory model with multi upper inventory hubs and lower level warehouses with limited or infinite stock. In current industrial practice, central component repair center intuitively assumes service point has a fixed cycle return for defects; this enables more convenient workload arrangement. However, a fixed cycle return model is not very efficient in handling the defect returns. Therefore, a LTAT (Least Turn Around Time) method is proposed in this study. The method leverages the minimum time in returning the repaired defect parts to the service point. The theory is based on the specific spare part failure rate to forecast the possible spare part shortage time; it is based on the minimum repair process time to reserve the time to ship defect parts to central component repair center. By this method, repaired parts should arrive at the service point in time and thus avoid any shortages. With LTAT method, the total inventory demand and replenishment cycle will be reduced compared to a fixed cycle model. This shows LTAT model can improve the efficiency of spare part inventory operation and the cost.

碩士
國立臺北科技大學
商業自動化與管理研究所
96
In order to have reacted to cancel the quota restrictions by WTO since 2005, and the globalization of competition, the textile and apparel industry needs the closer cooperation between the company and the place of the production, the better ability to management the global logistics, the quicker response to the customer and the demand from the market, and to handle and forecast the trend to the market. Therefore, the textile and apparel industry must have a new business model to help it. The concept of CPFR (Collaboration Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) proposed by VICS (Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Standards) in 1998 had been adopted in many enterprises and it had proved it`s performance. The main spirit of CPFR is to emphasize the sharing of the information among participating partners, and through these information to deal with the Collaboration forecasting. Following this process it can improve the accuracy of forecasting and the efficiency in supply chain. In this study we proposed a CPFR sales forecasting model for the textile and apparel industry. This CPFR process is based on a category management process and takes the former literatures and industrial practices as references. Through this process, we analysis different kinds of categories by using the SOM(Self Organization Map) classification algorithm and develop the different kinds of sales forecasting models by using BPN(Back-propagation network) algorithm . Furthermore, we take the real case for testing and verifying. The result of simulation can offer references to enterprise when making practical decisions.

碩士
雲林科技大學
工業工程與管理研究所碩士班
99
For organic retailer in four mission with cooperation prediction operate Order planning/Forecasting to find affecting sales factor. Retailer success is based there is buyer and seller forecasting sales information gap. We combine Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment with grey in Order planning/Forecasting. To collect Organic retailer dates which costumers’ quantity. Date have two situation. One situation is natural disaster. The other one is to expand branch to overall sales actives. GM(1,1) explain information to predict date in order to increase planning and sales abilities. To expect organic farmer and manufactures provide prediction information, replenishments and inventory. To collect customer sales history, we can have benefits with farmer and retailer cooperation. Studies divide three time block. Time block one is based on disaster. Grey prediction based on serious sales date to do related workaround. Time block two is based on overall sales activities. Organic retailers can ask organic farmers to harvest in Grey forecasting. Time block three is based on long term grey forecasting. We use all date to predict analysis disaster and affect overall sales activities. To find lines have learn function to match realistic data step by step. We use grey to meet collaboration prediction factor. Grey can learn and be corrected. Grey still can predict the next sales.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
商學研究所
96
As service parts industry is more and more important, the inventory related issues of service parts industry become much popular in the supply chain management’s study. One of these issue is that how to improve service level but not to increase inventory level too much. This thesis starts from the issue, we select auto service parts as an example. By considering parts life cycle, we develop a parts demand forecasting model to improve the parts demand evaluation process. By using the real data to test the model accuracy, we choose the fixed-period replenishment inventory system as an example. Finally, we discover that the performance of the new demand forecasting model we developed is much better than the model H company is now using. Based on the result of the new model performance, H company can improve it’s low service level in the auto phased-in period and just increase few inventory quantity. Besides, H company also can reduce the averaged annual inventory quantity and maintain the well service level as a whole. So we suggest that H company can apply the new model we developed in some parts that faced the back-order problem to control it’s inventory policy.

碩士
正修科技大學
工業工程與管理研究所
102
Supply chain management is the current trend with globalization and market changes. The supply and demand relationships between the buyer and the seller are also more closely because of the demand uncertainty, which may cause stock out or high inventory levels. Moreover, demand uncertainty will result in unstable production planning and low customer satisfaction rate. Therefore, this research employs Available-To-Promise (ATP) model and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) mechanism to manager the demand uncertainty and to improve the order commitment quality and operational efficiency of the buyers and sellers. This study investigated the mechanism of CPFR model under two levels of supply chain (buyer and seller). The optimization planning models for the amount of commitments are proposed in this research in consideration of "quantity discounts", “deteriorating items” and "yield management". The proposed four related mathematical programming models are with EXCEL as input, output of the interface, and then to write code LINGO software to optimize the solution and analysis. The models are to find the best conducive to the maximization of corporate profit planning and allocation to meet customer demand quantities.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
商學研究所
98
When buying the products, consumers consider not only the quality of the products but also the before-sales and after-sales service. They put more emphasis on the maintenance and warranty. Therefore, service parts industry becomes more and more important and inventory issues of service parts industry become much popular than before. Service parts are like the products that have the life cycles. This thesis focuses on the phase-in period of the service parts to reduce the total inventory under the high fill rate when the demand of service parts is increasing during this period. First, in order to calculate to return rate to factory service, we use the concept of least square method to find a T. Multiplying factory return rate by corresponding sales amount is the estimated total amounts of returning automobiles for each period. Then, use the regression method with highest R2 to forecast demand of service parts. Second, introduce exponential smoothing method into mean square error to be the basis of safety stock. Finally, according to the service parts procuring data, we can find the average order cycle, average and lead time and variation of lead time, and build a complete auto service parts periodic inventory model. Comparing with the performance of the model H Company using, new demand forecasting model can forecast more accurately the increasing demand in phase-in period and reduce the total inventory amounts with high fill rate. By means of new forecasting model, H Company can satisfy the customers’ demand of service parts with less inventory amounts and lower the cost of inventory.

碩士
輔仁大學
資訊管理學系碩士在職專班
102
For convenience store chain manager, how to determine the optimal method of order goods is very difficult, therefore, if we can develop an appropriate forecast model to estimate market demand, providing stores accurate suggest quantity when order goods, it will help reduce the difficulty of outlets ordering. In this research, it aimed at convenience stores selling perishable food products, respectively, using time-series forecasting method, support vector machines, and two phase of SVM method with using promotional factor to construct desirable characteristics of product demand forecasting model, and use H convenience store in January 2013 - 2014 in May a three merchandise sales data of two stores for samples in simulation analysis. The results showed that the two phase of SVM method with using promotional factor was significantly better than the amount of moving average, exponential smoothing and the store forecasting method of H convenience. Especially, when stores were selling perishable food in the promotion period, our two phase of SVM method should take into account the level of service and reduce the amount of inventory for the store.

A unique approach is developed for evaluating Human Capital (workforce) requirements. With this approach, new ways of measuring personnel availability are proposed and available to ensure that an organization remains ready to provide timely, relevant, and accurate products and services in support of its strategic objectives over its planning horizon. The development of this analysis and methodology was established as an alternative approach to existing studies for determining appropriate hiring and attrition rates and to maintain appropriate personnel levels of effectiveness to support existing and future missions. The contribution of this research is a prescribed method for the strategic analyst to incorporate a personnel and cost simulation model within the framework of Human Resources Human Capital forecasting which can be used to project personnel requirements and evaluate workforce sustainment, at least cost, through time. This will allow various personnel managers to evaluate multiple resource strategies, present and future, maintaining near “perfect” hiring and attrition policies to support its future Human Capital assets.

碩士
正修科技大學
工業工程與管理研究所
103
For the current trends of globalization and market changes, more and more business enterprises invest in their supply chain to enhance their competition. Many approaches such as risk pooling and revenue sharing are utilized for supply chain management to minimize the whole system costs and to satisfy the service level requirements. The supply and demand relationships between the buyer and the seller are more closely to confront the demand uncertainty, which may cause stock out or high inventory levels. In addition, demand uncertainty will result in unstable production planning and low customer satisfaction rate. Besides, many business models are applied to fulfill firm’s transaction such as the models of distributor and consignment. Therefore, this research employs Available-To-Promise (ATP) model and Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) mechanism to manager the demand uncertainty and to improve the order commitment quality of the buyers and sellers with penalty function. Moreover, this research takes the business models of distributor and consignment as illustrations. This study investigated the mechanism of CPFR model under the business models of distributor and consignment. The optimization planning models for the amount of commitments are proposed in consideration of "quantity discounts", “deteriorating items” and "revenue management". The proposed three related mathematical programming models are with EXCEL as input, output of the interface, and then to write code LINGO software to optimize the solution and analysis. The models are to find the best conducive to the maximization of corporate profit planning and allocation to meet customer demand quantities.

碩士
國立交通大學
運輸與物流管理學系
105
This study was motivated to propose a forecasting and replenishment control model to one of the Distribution Centers in a Medical Device Manufacturer. In the Medical Device Industry, the desire for high levels of customer service often results in less than optimal inventory levels. Sometimes, big companies face challenges when have distribution centers in different parts of the world, and there is lack of a reliable business process for collecting demand data from channel. Therefore, as part of the characteristics of this industry, it is necessary to adopt suitable models to generate efficient replenishment plans due to the diversity in the portfolio of products and the constant changes in their demand. We used a Case Study Approach to analyze three years of real data for six different products, identify the probability distribution behind every demand set, and employ forecasting methods to give more precise demand estimates. Also, we proposed to determine the replenishment quantity using a Periodic Inventory Review model for the Distribution Center. We verify that the proposed approach obtained better forecasting than those given by the field sales in the Distribution Center using the historical data. Therefore, we believe the proposed approach may serve as an effective tool that supports their decision making, forecasting, and replenishment system. The case company could look for opportunities to extend them to other subsidiaries.

碩士
國立臺北科技大學
工業工程與管理研究所
98
The institute of U.S. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards (VICS) submit the CPFR model (Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment) to provide supply chain with application method of collaborative operation. This case study is in accordance with the suggestion guide book version 2.0 of CPFR of GCI organization (submitted by GCI, approved by original submission organization VICS) to aim at the relationship between internal departments of subject company and outside supply chain, with CPFR four main activity concepts to be introduced into the model, to establish mechanisms for communication coordination, management of abnormal situations in order to be able to deal with the problems in the process of activity. The responsive strategies are described as follows: 1.“Probing and analyzing the questions” to be used as knowledge management. 2.“Collaborative strategy and planning “to be used restructure of the enterprise. 3.“Management of supply and demand with efficiency” to be used as ERP and ECM. 4.“Implementation of performance evaluation and feedback” to be used as KPI / SCM performance measurement. The competition is becoming more and more fierce in the global economic environment. The electrical power transmission and distribution industry will be in the face of the stiff challenge if parties involved don’t figure out the ways and solutions to get something improved. We deeply believe that the flexible collaborative cooperation will become one of the most important key points for enterprise to keep surviving. As a result, CPFR business model is discussed in this research and to be guided into a real case study in the meantime, the beneficial results generated by CPFR working items will be sorted out into three categories, the first part will be integrated into supply chain management system that is in a position to satisfy the customer’s demands, advanced part will go through new circle feedback CPFR system to achieve higher benefits, finally, by means of the case analysis to be adopted as useful reference when introduced into CPFR for electrical power transmission and distribution industry.

This Record of Study describes the Doctor of Engineering (DE) internship experience at the Supply Chain Systems Laboratory (SCSL) at Texas A&M University. The objective of the internship was to design and develop automation tools to streamline lab operations related to inventory management projects and during that process adapt and/or extend theoretical inventory models according to real-world business complexity and data integrity problems. A holistic approach to automation was taken to satisfy both short-term and long-term needs subject to organizational constraints. A comprehensive software productivity tool was designed and developed that considerably reduced time and effort spent on non-value adding activities. This resulted in standardizing and streamlining data analysis related activities. Real-world factors that significantly influence the data analysis process were identified and incorporated into model specifications. This helped develop an operational inventory management model that accounted for business complexity and data integrity issues commonly encountered during implementation. Many organizational issues including new business strategies, human resources, administration, and project management were also addressed during the course of the internship.