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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Forecasting of economic processes'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 28 May 2022

Last updated: 30 July 2025

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1

Chevillon, Guillaume. "Multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416533.

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2

Loll, Tina [Verfasser]. "Forecasting Economic Time Series using Locally Stationary Processes : A New Approach with Applications / Tina Loll." Frankfurt : Peter Lang GmbH, Internationaler Verlag der Wissenschaften, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1042413754/34.

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3

Ніконорова, О. В. "Парадокси в теорії ймовірностей". Thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2018. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/67026.

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Сучасна людина, яка живе в умовах постійних змін, практично кожного дня зустрічається з практичним застосуванням теорії ймовірностей. Економічна інформація також не є досить точною і часто має випадковий характер, отже знайомство з елементами теорії ймовірностей є дуже важливим для сучасних економістів. Дуже важко уявити сучасні дослідження і прогнозування економічних процесів без регресійного аналізу, економетричного моделювання, трендових моделей та інших методів.

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4

Hunt, Julian David. "Integration of rationale management with multi-criteria decision analysis, probabilistic forecasting and semantics : application to the UK energy sector." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2cc24d23-3e93-42e0-bb7a-6e39a65d7425.

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This thesis presents a new integrated tool and decision support framework to approach complex problems resulting from the interaction of many multi-criteria issues. The framework is embedded in an integrated tool called OUTDO (Oxford University Tool for Decision Organisation). OUTDO integrates Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), decision rationale management with a modified Issue-Based Information Systems (IBIS) representation, and probabilistic forecasting to effectively capture the essential reasons why decisions are made and to dynamically re-use the rationale. In doing so, it allows e

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5

Odendahl, Florens. "Essays in economic forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/664016.

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This thesis consists of three chapters on forecasting techniques in economics. In chapter 1, I use copulas to estimate multivariate density forecasts based on univariate densities from survey data. Survey-based predictions are often competitive to time series models in their forecasting performance but have a univariate focus and my estimation strategy exploits the information in the surveys’ marginal densities. I subsequently demonstrate the importance of the multivariate aspect for forecasters. In chapter 2, we propose novel tests for forecast rationality, which are robust under the presence

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6

Souza, André B. M. "Essays in economic forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672997.

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This dissertation consists of two independent chapters on economic and financial forecasting. The first chapter introduces a nonlinear forecasting framework that combines forecasts of the sign and absolute value of a time series into conditional mean forecasts. In contrast to linear models, the proposed framework allows different predictors to separately impact the sign and absolute value of the target series. An empirical application using the FRED-MD dataset shows that forecasts from the proposed model substantially outperform linear forecasts for series that exhibit persistent volati

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7

Acar, Emmanuel. "Economic evaluation of financial forecasting." Thesis, City University London, 1993. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8256/.

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This thesis examines the economic evaluation of forecasting strategies based on past prices, bringing together academics and practitioners techniques Forecasting methods based on past prices are convex and path-dependent dynamic strategies Therefore, they must be able to profitably exploit positive serial dependences in financial prices The most important measure of financial forecasting ability is the rate of return achieved by the predictor The expected return of forecasting strategies is first investigated by applying stochastic modelling Then, the presence of serial dependences in financia

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8

Bezsmertna, Julia. "Modern methods of economic forecasting." Thesis, Київський національний університет технологій та дизайну, 2019. https://er.knutd.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14350.

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9

Marrocu, Emanuela. "Modelling identification and forecasting nonlinear processes." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.340086.

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10

Marsilli, Clément. "Mixed-Frequency Modeling and Economic Forecasting." Thesis, Besançon, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BESA2023/document.

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La prévision macroéconomique à court terme est un exercice aussi complexe qu’essentiel pour la définition de la politique économique et monétaire. Les crises financières récentes ainsi que les récessions qu’ont endurées et qu’endurent aujourd’hui encore, en ce début d’année 2014, nombre de pays parmi les plus riches, témoignent de la difficulté d’anticiper les fluctuations économiques, même à des horizons proches. Les recherches effectuées dans le cadre de la thèse de doctorat qui est présentée dans ce manuscrit se sont attachées à étudier, analyser et développer des modélisations pour la prév

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11

Franklin, Jesse C. "Forecasting the Inland Empire's Economic Recovery." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2010. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/42.

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The Inland Empire -Riverside and San Bernardino Counties - was one of the hardest hit areas in all of the United States during the Great Recession. Home prices have declined over 50%, significantly more than the 25% decline in the surrounding Los Angeles County, and housing starts have declined to over 90% from 2005. The Inland Empire has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US at 14.8%. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery for the Inland Empire. Employing univariate forecasts along with VAR(12) forecasts, focusing on housing starts and unemployment rates as the underlying vari

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12

Thomas, M. C. "Techno-economic forecasting for packaging materials." Thesis, Swansea University, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.639223.

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Forecasting packaging material demand is crucial to effective future planning by capital intensive material manufacturers. Yet several considerations introduce great uncertainty over the future packaging mix. Foremost is a highly heterogeneous and dynamic end-use marketplace subject to multitudinous technological, economic, consumer and legislative change-forces. These act at all levels upon a diverse and complex supply chain that suffers data paucity and, hence, opacity of cause and effect. A wide range of future-oriented decision technologies was examined to meet these challenges. None promi

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13

Betz, Gregor Tetens Holm. "Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences /." Wiesbaden : Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag, 2006. http://site.ebrary.com/id/10231757.

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14

Valente, Giorgio. "Essays in financial forecasting." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2003. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4055/.

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Forecasting is central to economic and financial decision-making. Government institutions and agents in the private sector often base their decisions on forecasts of financial and economic variables. Forecasting has therefore been a primary concern for practitioners and financial econometricians alike, and the relevant literature has witnessed a renaissance in recent years. This thesis contributes to this literature by investigating three topical issues related to financial and economic forecasting. The first chapter finds its rationale in the large literature suggesting that standard exchange

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15

Bryhn, Andreas. "The Forecasting Power of Economic Growth Models." Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8053.

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<p>High forecasting power is essential for understanding scientific relationships. In economics, forecasting power may be decisive for the success or failure of a particular policy. The forecasting power of economic growth models is investigated in this study. Regressions from one dataset including the gross domestic product (GDP), GDP growth, trade openness, the quality of public institutions and secondary education generate insufficient forecasting power with respect to growth. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund's one-year growth forecasts are compared to outcome. Forecasts for 199

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16

Toner, Patrick Thomas. "Load forecasting for economic power system operation." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.317533.

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17

Shih, Shou Hsing. "Forecasting models for economic and environmental applications." [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2008. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0002425.

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18

Ghassemi, Nooshin Haji. "Analytic Long Term Forecasting with Periodic Gaussian Processes." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för datavetenskap och kommunikation, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-5458.

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In many application domains such as weather forecasting, robotics and machine learning we need to model, predict and analyze the evolution of periodic systems. For instance, time series applications that follow periodic patterns appear in climatology where the CO2 emissions and temperature changes follow periodic or quasi-periodic patterns. Another example can be in robotics where the joint angle of a rotating robotic arm follows a periodic pattern. It is often very important to make long term prediction of the evolution of such systems. For modeling and prediction purposes, Gaussian processes

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19

Seemann, Thomas. "Prediction markets as forecasting tool in decision processes." Berlin Pro Business, 2008. http://d-nb.info/993592570/04.

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20

Furman, Yoel Avraham. "Forecasting with large datasets." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:69f2833b-cc53-457a-8426-37c06df85bc2.

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This thesis analyzes estimation methods and testing procedures for handling large data series. The first chapter introduces the use of the adaptive elastic net, and the penalized regression methods nested within it, for estimating sparse vector autoregressions. That chapter shows that under suitable conditions on the data generating process this estimation method satisfies an oracle property. Furthermore, it is shown that the bootstrap can be used to accurately conduct inference on the estimated parameters. These properties are used to show that structural VAR analysis can also be validly cond

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21

Hoyos, Carlos D. "Intraseasonal Variability: Processes, Predictability and Prospects for Prediction." Diss., Available online, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006, 2006. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-04102006-135125/.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006.<br>Dr. Peter J. Webster, Committee Chair ; Dr. Judith A. Curry, Committee Member ; Dr. Robert Dickinson, Committee Member ; Dr. Robert X. Black, Committee Member ; Dr. Predrag Cvitanovic, Committee Member.

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22

Yuan, Hang. "Overlapping regression and forecasting : essays on economic cycles." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.657624.

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This thesis documents research and findings of three essays in the area of prediction and forecast of economic cycles. Each essay in this thesis is dedicated to address one particular aspect of the research. The thesis also contributes to the existing research by providing additional empirical evidence on the predictability of the real economic activity and recessions in the US. The first essay (Chapter 2) focuses on the long horizon inference methods, and examines the predictability of real GDP growth rate in the US using several well known predictors. A battery of specifically designed infer

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23

Mansur, Mohaimen. "Essays on forecasting financial and economic time series." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2014. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/8576.

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This thesis comprises three main chapters focusing on a number of issues related to forecasting economic and nancial time series. Chapter 2 contains a detailed empirical study comparing forecast perfor- mance of a number of popular term structure models in predicting the UK yield curve. Several questions are addressed and investigated, such as whether macroeconomic information helps in forecasting yields and whether predict- ing performance of models change over time. We nd evidence of signi cant time-variation in forecast accuracy of competing models, particularly during the recent nancial cr

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24

Reed, Larry Donnell. "Forecasting economic impacts of the Third Harbor Tunnel." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77341.

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25

Mapp, Claudette Melissa. "Forecasting economic impacts of the Boston Harbor cleanup." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76018.

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Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1989.<br>Title as it appeared in M.I.T. Graduate List, June 1989: Forecasting economic benefits of the Boston Harbor cleanup.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 97-98).<br>by Claudette Melissa Mapp.<br>M.C.P.

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26

Lee, Sanghoon. "Econometrics of jump-diffusion processes : approximation, estimation and forecasting." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.364734.

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27

Sippl-Swezey, Nicolas. "Heterogeneous gain forecasting using historic asset information." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1354304083.

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28

Jeon, Yongil. "Four essays on forecasting evaluation and econometric estimation /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9949690.

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29

Tate, Charles Ulysses. "Mental simulation of the future : processes and principles /." view abstract or download file of text, 2006. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?index=0&did=1251849171&SrchMode=1&sid=1&Fmt=2&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1181338221&clientId=11238.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2006.<br>Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 152-158). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

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30

Александрова, Вікторія Олександрівна. "Формування економіко-організаційного забезпечення реорганізації діяльності промислового підприємства". Thesis, Національний технічний університет "Харківський політехнічний інститут", 2020. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/48645.

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Дисертація на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата економічних наук за спеціальністю 08.00.04 – економіка та управління підприємствами (за видами економічної діяльності). – Національний технічний університет "Харківський політехнічний інститут". – Харків, 2020. Обґрунтовано сутність дефініції "реорганізація діяльності промислового підприємства". Розроблено теоретико-методичні положення формування організаційно-економічного забезпечення реорганізації діяльності промислових підприємств, що містять: виділення функціональних складових наскрізних бізнес-процесів; формування функціональних зон і орг

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31

Banavas, Georgios Nikolaos. "Prognosis : historical pattern matching for economic forecasting and trading." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1642.

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In recent years financial markets have become complex environments that continuously change and they change quickly. The strong link between the continuous change in the markets and the danger of losing money when trading in them, has made financial studies a domain that concentrates increasing scientific and business attention. In this context, the development of computational techniques that can monitor recent financial events can process them according to their similarity with historical data recordings, and can support financial decision making, is a challenging problem. In this work, the

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32

VASCONCELOS, GABRIEL FILIPE RODRIGUES. "FORECASTING IN HIGH-DIMENSION: INFLATION AND OTHER ECONOMIC VARIABLES." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35237@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO<br>PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA<br>Esta tese é composta de quatro artigos e um pacote de R. Todos os artigos têm como foco previsão de variáveis econômicas em alta dimensão. O primeiro artigo mostra que modelos LASSO são muito precisos para prever a inflação brasileira em horizontes curtos de previsão. O segundo artigo utiliza vários métodos de Machine Learning para prever um grupo de variáveis macroeconomicas am

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33

Liu, Guangling. "Forecasting with DSGE models the case of South Africa /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2007. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06102008-094841/.

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34

Lüders, Erik. "Economic foundation of asset price processes /." Heidelberg : Physica, 2004. http://aleph.unisg.ch/hsgscan/hm00119185.pdf.

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35

Fu, Shiyuan. "A Comparison And Conclusive Integration of Trend Analysis Processes." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1313427101.

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36

Harrington, Robert P. "Forecasting corporate performance." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/54515.

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For the past twenty years, the usefulness of accounting information has been emphasized. In 1966 the American Accounting Association in its State of Basic Accounting Theory asserted that usefulness is the primary purpose of external financial reports. In 1978 the State of Financial Accounting Concepts, No. 1 affirmed the usefulness criterion. "Financial reporting should provide information that is useful to present and potential investors and creditors and other users..." Information is useful if it facilitates decision making. Moreover, all decisions are future-oriented; they are based on a

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37

Hackworth, J. F. "Forecasting the ownership growth of consumer durables." Thesis, Cranfield University, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.371830.

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38

Васильєва, Тетяна Анатоліївна, Татьяна Анатольевна Васильева, Tetiana Anatoliivna Vasylieva, et al. "The economic impact of COVID-19: forecasting for ukrainian regions." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/80904.

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The world scientific community has developed many economic and mathematical models for predicting and analysing the multidirectional impact of COVID-19 on various aspects of society. Modelling the economic consequences of a new dangerous virus for different countries has a vital role today. There is a lack of such research in Ukraine. Foreign papers, particularly from the highly-rated databases Scopus and Web of Science, show an increase in research on this topic and their citations. It is appropriate to mention specific quotes from the report of the consulting company One Philosophy Insights,

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Васильєва, Тетяна Анатоліївна, Татьяна Анатольевна Васильева, Tetiana Anatoliivna Vasylieva, et al. "The economic impact of covid-19: forecasting for Ukrainian regions." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/80956.

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У тезах наведені економічні показники в Україні, що показують прямий вплив пандемії COVID-19 на соціально-економічне становище ряду вітчизняних галузей та регіонів. Обгрунтована доцільність використання економіко-математичних моделей для прогнозування розвитку подій під час такого роду епідемій.<br>В тезисах приведены экономические показатели в Украине, которые показывают прямое влияние пандемии COVID-19 на социально-экономическое положение ряда отечественных отраслей и регионов. Обоснована целесообразность использования экономико-математических моделей для прогнозирования развития событий во

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40

Rostami, Tabar Bahman. "ARIMA demand forecasting by aggregation." Phd thesis, Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux I, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00980614.

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Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organisation is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce demand uncertainty and consequently improve the forecasting (and inventory control) performance. An intuitively appealing such approach that is known to be effective is demand aggregation. One approach is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency 'time buckets'. Such an approach is often referred to, in the academic literature, as temporal aggregation. Another approach discussed in the literature is that associated with cross

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41

Dam, Robert A. "Economic limits to corporate growth in America." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2514.

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This work explores the relationship between corporate and economic growth within the United States since 1929. The corporate share of GDP climbed from 52.5 percent in 1929 to 59.7 percent in 2005. Depending upon the years included and the method of estimating respective growth rates, this increasing share of GDP accounts for up to 14 percent of real domestic corporate growth. However, the domestic corporate share of GDP can never exceed 100 percent. Subject to numerous assumptions, the models presented here estimate that this source of corporate growth could be exhausted as early as the y

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42

Fan, Yat-chau, and 范一舟. "Modelling and forecasting Hong Kong construction demands." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B45547269.

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43

Kang, Sungjun. "Forecasting inflation with probit and regression models /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9946268.

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44

Boertien, Diederik. "Socio-economic resources, relationship processes, and separation." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/119609.

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This thesis consists of three empirical papers that all study relationship processes and their effects on divorce. Of particular interest is the role that socio-economic resources play in this story. In the first empirical paper of this thesis I investigate why there exists a negative correlation between women’s education and the risk of divorce. The second paper addresses whether the correlation between income and separation is causal by looking at the effects of lottery wins. The last empirical chapter aims to explain a common but relatively illogical course of events, namely, the dissolutio

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45

Klimek, Monika A. "Designing economic coercion : assessment of conflict processes /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2004. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p1422937.

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46

Chen, Yuang-Sung Al. "Financial analyst forecast dispersion : determinants and usefulness as an ex-ante measure of risk." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/29391.

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47

Liu, Yu. "Essays on analyst growth forecasts and stock market valuations /." View abstract or full-text, 2008. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?ACCT%202008%20LIU.

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48

Betz, Gregor. "Prediction or prophecy? : the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences /." Wiesbaden : Dt. Univ.-Verl, 2006. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=014606920&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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49

Queen, Catriona M. "Bayesian graphical forecasting models for business time series." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1991. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4321/.

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This thesis develops three new classes of Bayesian graphical models to forecast multivariate time series. Although these models were originally motivated by the need for flexible and tractable forecasting models appropriate for modelling competitive business markets, they are of theoretical interest in their own right. Multiregression dynamic models are defined to preserve certain conditional independence structures over time. Although these models are typically very non-Gaussian, it is proved that they are simple to update, amenable to practical implementation and promise more efficient ident

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50

Xue, Jiangbo. "A structural forecasting model for the Chinese macroeconomy /." View abstract or full-text, 2009. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?ECON%202009%20XUE.

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