Academic literature on the topic 'Foresight methodology'
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Journal articles on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Шинина, Татьяна, Tatyana Shinina, Инна Морозова, and Inna Morozova. "Research Foresight — a New Educational Technology for Developing the Competencies of Industry Managers Cost." Scientific Research and Development. Socio-Humanitarian Research and Technology 7, no. 3 (October 1, 2018): 54–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/article_5ba389ad77dbd4.30665257.
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The article is devoted to the disclosure of the prerequisites for the creation and description of the theoretical foundations of the new educational technology «Re-foresight» («Research Foresight»). The article justified the request for new educational technologies in working with the managers of the new formation. The genesis of the foresight methodology is presented, in which the content thread of the formation of instruments of influence on the development of the strategies of the country, region, and industry is traced. The road map of author's educational technology for research foresight is given, which includes the stages: improvement of managerial competencies, real forecasting, design of management decisions, assessment; application of modern teaching methods: igrofication, visualization of meanings, personal reflection. A triad of psychological categories (personality - activity - communication) is presented, forming the methodology of educational technology «Re-Foresight». The educational technology «Re-Foresight» has been approved in the construction of the image of the future youth branch of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and can be applied at the regional and municipal level, as well as in carrying out branch and corporate foresights.
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Dumanska, Ilona. "METHODOLOGY OF FORESIGHT-ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE." Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 7, no. 3 (June 25, 2021): 109–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2021-7-3-109-117.
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The purpose of the article is to substantiate the systemic principles of implementation of foresight-analysis of international trade as a method of strategic forecasting at the macro level, the formation of its methodological tools and implementation models. Methodology. The article used general and special research methods. Classification of types of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade and their characteristics, the formation of a set of factors influencing it was based on grouping, synthesis and formalization. Economic modeling, scientific abstraction, systems analysis were used in building a model of foresight-analysis of international trade and identified the factors of negative impact on it. Using the method of coefficients, structural analysis and analytical comparison offers groups of economic indicators of foreign trade to analyze the development of international trade in the preparatory stage of foresight-analysis. Results. It is established that the system of classifications of foresight-analysis allows its application not only at the national level of forecasting the development of trade, but also internationally. It is revealed that when applying the methodology of foresight-analysis of international trade development it is necessary to take into account the purposeful influence of endogenous and exogenous factors. The model of providing the methodology of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade is structured, which includes the following components: system methodology, strategic guidelines, information and analytical support, implementation process and a set of methodological tools. It is found that the combined application of methods (quantitative, qualitative, mixed) in the foresight-analysis of the development of international trade provides maximum efficiency. The addition of the structure of economic methods of foresight-analysis by a group of economic indicators that assess the level of development of foreign trade of a country is substantiated and proposed. Practical implementation. Formation of methodological tools and models for the implementation of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade, taking into account the specifics of foreign trade policy of states based on a consolidated group of economic indicators. Value/originality. The proposed groups of economic indicators can be used in the decomposition of methods of foresight-analysis of international trade to confirm the effectiveness of strategic directions of foreign trade policy and sound forecasting of its effectiveness in the future.
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Proskuryakova, Liliana. "Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities." foresight 19, no. 2 (April 10, 2017): 139–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2016-0034.
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Purpose The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study. Findings As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made. Research limitations/implications Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents. Practical implications The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies. Originality/value This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.
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Roveda, C., R. Vecchiato, R. Verganti, and P. Landoni. "A new methodology for regional foresight." International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy 3, no. 2 (2007): 218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2007.011626.
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ROGACHEVSKYI, Oleksandr. "CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF PROVIDING FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY IN THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH CARE SECTOR." Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics 5, no. 3 (September 7, 2020): 304–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2020-3-33.
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Introduction. The use of strategic tools to manage the health sector is currently an urgent problem for Ukraine. Foresight technology aims to democratize the processes of socio-economic regulation and management in the national environment of the country, which provides a social function in the health sector. The purpose of the article is to propose a conceptual model for providing a foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector. Results. The analysis of the factors influencing the foresight methodology for the healthcare sector, in the structure of which endogenous and exogenous factors occupy a special place. The model for providing the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector was proposed. The scenarios used in the foresight methodology should show the possible alternative changes in the relevant environment of the national health care sector and their impact on the prospects of strategic development of the medical sector, as well as the reverse impact of medical technology on the industry. It should be emphasized that the scenarios effectively complement the results of SWOT-analysis, brainstorming, patent analysis, cross-interaction research, etc., as the structured system of methodical tools of the foresight methodology is constantly changing. The system of methods used in foresight methodology is analyzed. The application of foresight technology for the analysis of scenarios for further development of the Covid-19 pandemic is analyzed. Conclusions. According to the results of the study, it is proved that in the conditions of transparent transformations of the national healthcare sector, the application of the foresight methodology will allow to raise to a new level measures to create a modern model of medical facilities in the country, providing quality medical services to citizens of the country. The application of the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the country's healthcare sector will provide a visualization of the probable trend of development of the medical sphere and its components, through the socio-economic and innovation-technological component. Keywords: healthcare, strategic management, strategy, healthcare industry, foresight.
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Jore, Sissel Haugdal, Inger-Lise Førland Utland, and Victoria Hell Vatnamo. "The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning." foresight 20, no. 1 (March 12, 2018): 68–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2017-0045.
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Purpose Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex. Findings Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.
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Maia Chinchaladze, Maia Chinchaladze, Nino Darsavelidze Nino Darsavelidze, Lela Bochoidze Lela Bochoidze, and Ana Kurtanidze Ana Kurtanidze. "Forsyth Methodology - A Strategic Tool For The Development of Regional Industries." Economics 105, no. 1-2 (February 7, 2022): 68–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.36962/ecs105/1-2/2022-68.
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The article deals with the role of foresight research in the strategic development of industries and companies, improving their capabilities, and the appropriateness of developing a methodology. Forsyth projects are characterized by an integrated approach, a high degree of involvement of all project participants in decision making. The impact of external and internal factors on current processes often requires adjustment, in the case of foresight these processes are subject to rapid adjustment. (Even in the case of strategic planning and forecasting - it takes some time). All resources are distributed in the necessary directions, decisions are optimized, economic sustainability is ensured. It is noteworthy that within the framework of Forsyth, the work is underway at various levels - national, regional and sectoral. Forsyth research - at four levels - at national, regional, sectoral and corporate levels. Keywords: Forecasting, planning, foresight research, foresight projects.
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Gusmanov, Rasul, Almir Askarov, Milyausha Lukyanova, Vitaliy Kovshov, and Eugene Stovba. "Strategic Planning of Rural Development Based on Foresight Methodologies." Scientifica 2020 (February 20, 2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5195104.
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The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.
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Makhova, N. "Foresight: Country Specifics and General Patterns." World Economy and International Relations, no. 8 (2014): 34–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2014-8-34-44.
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Foresight has become a widely employed method in the last decades, however only few of the foresight programmes proved to be successful and long lasting. This poses a controversy taking into account that the concept and the methodology of foresight have been exhaustively studied, and the achieved level of information, consultative and organizational support at hand is sufficient to carry out projects of different scale and subject. The author presumes that the reasons lie in the predominant attention of foresight actors to its material outcomes and methodology instead of mechanisms that form the very basis of the system, whose future is subject to analysis by means of foresight. The hypothesis is further justified with analysis of foresight programmes in the Great Britain and Brazil, which enables to propose a revised definition of the foresight concept.
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Kishita, Yusuke. "Foresight and Roadmapping Methodology: Trends and Outlook." Foresight and STI Governance 15, no. 2 (June 25, 2021): 5–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2021.2.5.11.
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This guest editorial article introduces contextual and theoretical frameworks of foresight and futures studies’ methodology. Outstanding questions relating to methodological development are then addressed. This is followed by an introduction to five papers that make important methodological contributions. The article ends by a call for further research on the questions that have been identified, but remain unanswered.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Popper, Rafael. "21st century foresight." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2011. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:151961.
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21st Century Foresight offers a comprehensive study of ‘foresight’ as an instrument of policy. It covers the development of foresight methodology, the design of foresight activities and their evaluation. The thesis is based on eleven publications collectively making significant contributions to knowledge about global foresight practices and applications in different domains (i.e. research areas and socio-economic sectors). New conceptual frameworks developed include the Foresight Diamond, the SMART Futures Jigsaw and the Methods Combination Matrix (MCM), which can be used as tools for futures research, practical work in the design and management of forward-looking activities and knowledge transfer on foresight. The thesis shows both generalised and specific contributions to knowledge. The former is best demonstrated with the development of a “fully-fledged evaluation” framework with twenty criteria, the identification of critical factors influencing the selection of foresight methods (e.g. geo-R&D context) and the use of network analysis techniques in foresight. The latter is prominent throughout the thesis with examples including the results of particular evaluations and the profiles of foresight practices in Europe and Latin America. A prevailing theme is the use of mapping and benchmarking approaches to evaluate foresight practices and reveal a more detailed understanding of the impacts of foresight in science, technology and innovation systems. The theoretical contributions (e.g. using exploratory research and catastrophe theory) are complemented with a set of practical instruments providing methodological basis and guidelines for increasing the efficiency and outcome of foresight and horizon scanning activities. Overall, the thesis demonstrates original contributions to five distinct yet interconnected areas of knowledge: foresight methodology; foresight practices in Europe and the world; foresight in Latin America; foresight evaluation; and the evaluation of national technology foresight programmes. The various approaches used to frame the morphology of foresight – supported with evidence, comparisons and evaluations – are the main contributions to knowledge.
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Fransolet, Aurore. "Knowing and Governing Super-Wicked Problems: A Social Analysis of Low-Carbon Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2019. https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/286373/4/TDM.pdf.
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Since various public and private actors at the international, supranational, national and subnational levels started to adopt long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, low-carbon scenario analyses have flourished. Literature reveals an increasing number of analyses envisioning and exploring alternative images of low-carbon futures, as well as their adjacent transition pathways. Scenario approaches or “foresight” is intended to help policy-makers to navigate the maelstrom of confusion and conflicts associated with highly complex societal challenges such as climate change – i.e. the “super-wicked” problems. Typical scenario exercises aim at coping with uncertainty and conflicting values, and hence are often claimed as a suitable approach for knowing and governing super-wicked problems. When reviewing the scenario literature published over the recent years, we observe significant methodological developments, in particular at the level of the calculus or data-sets. These contributions have generated an increasing technical sophistication of scenario building methods, and contrast with the relative absence of social sciences research on scenarios. Scenario analyses have received little academic attention from social sciences, whether they are political science, sociology, philosophy of science or science and technology studies. By providing a SHS-analysis of low-carbon scenarios, the present thesis contributes to bridge this research gap. Scenarios are here understood as “boundary objects” linking different social worlds: science and policy, but also natural and social sciences. This thesis aspires to create an enhanced understanding on how scenario analyses perform such “boundary work”. More specifically, the following analysis of low-carbon scenarios is based on a twofold perspective focusing, on the one hand, on the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance (i.e. link between science and policy), and, on the other hand, on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios (i.e. link between natural and social sciences). In other words, it explores “scenarios in governance” and “governance in scenarios”. The thesis project includes three research axes, each based on its particular empirics. A first study explores the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance on the basis of a multiple case study analysing the role of four energy foresight studies in policy-making. The other two studies focus on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios. One of them provides an assessment of the knowledge needed to steer the low-carbon transition. The other one aims at contributing to the debate on the relations between quantitative modelling and social sciences by exposing a critical review of socio-technical energy transition models. The objective of the present thesis thus consists in providing an empirical contribution to social sciences research on low-carbon scenarios.Doctorat en Sciences
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Lin, Hao-Chu, and 林浩鉅. "National Foresight Planning and Technology Strategy Methodology Study." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51789315887537032047.
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博士國立臺灣科技大學
管理研究所
100
In response to future external environmental challenges and gather consensus on national development, developed and developing countries have endeavored on foresight projects respectively over the past thirty years to set national direction of development and allocate R&D resources through a standardized operational model. However, the major national foresight programs with 4-5 year as a cycle have confronted many challenges including prolonged planning time resulting in not keeping up with the ever-changing environment; massive resource investment not suitable for countries with limited resources; and bottlenecks such as operability of planning process connecting to the follow-up project promotion. In addition, in the national foresight planning, technology development and acquisition are two crucial competitive advantages for countries. However, countries confront three challenges, i.e., uncertainties of technology development, uncertainties of external environment, and how to maintain strategic flexibility in carrying out technology strategic planning in the rapid-changing environment. In this thesis, we have two major topics. In the first topic, we focus on the national foresight methodology and propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning with 2020 Taiwan Foresight Project as an example. In the second topic, we focus on the technology strategy analysis for the national foresight and propose Scenario Strategy Matrix (SSM)、 Scenario Sensitivity Matrix (SSM) and Scenario Sensitivity Index (SSI) as instruments and discuss the technology development strategy under scenarios change with selection of emerging technologies for Taiwan in 2020 as a case.
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Cher, Tay Sin, and 鄭訓哲. "Fitting Future Research Methodology and Foresight Research with Workflow Diagram." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21835693381508379173.
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碩士國立中央大學
資訊管理學系
102
Nowadays the world is facing a huge change because of the high-speed information transmitting and the global competition of society, economy, knowledge resource and innovative technology. Due to find the direction and strategies, foresight is more and more important. Foresight can find out the future trend and help to make right decisions with using systematic analysis to face off any unpredictable scenario in future. To overcome these problems, the purpose of this study will focus on comprehensive foresight analysis, future research methodology and strategic planning and management. Make up future research method schema base on logic of workflow. Reviews the platform of foresight framework, logic of workflow, and try to improve. Fitting future research methodology and foresight research with workflow diagram, and select the appropriate of method in different phase. In addition, building complete foresight architecture, add and remove the appropriate method in foresight research process, and try to improve the architecture of foresight research in every single phase. Above all, the specific contribution of the study is review the future research methodology and foresight research, making up future research method workflow diagram base on logic of workflow, improving the foresight architecture with adding and removing the appropriate method in previous architecture.
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Shih, Kai-bo, and 施凱博. "Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Research Process." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/03887150169266843700.
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碩士國立中央大學
資訊管理研究所
100
Traditional foresight research process and future research methodologies is no longer satisfy in the complicated society. For the correctness and efficiency of foresight studies, using future research methodologies properly even combining multiple future research methodologies is getting important. To overcome these problems, lat foresight research process satisfy in any foresight studies is a solution. For this, finding a foresight research process by analyzing each sub-processes and future research methodologies first, then fitting future research methodologies in foresight research process. By this process, foresight researchers allow using property future research methodologies in each foresight research sub-processes. When facing a tough problem, future researchers can also find a set of future research methodologies belongs to foresight research process. Comparing with using future research methodologies singly and foresight research process, the latter has more tools, more flexibility and more property. To make the relationship between future research methodologies clearly, theirs similarity, dependency, extension and object-oriented concepts had been analyzed. It represent the flexibility between future research methodologies and it is also the pre-process of modeling foresight research system. Object-oriented concepts had been used in modeling foresight research system. Unified Modeling Language(UML) had been used in describing foresight research process, future research methodologies and theirs fitting. These knocked on the door of foresight research’s systematization. It also makes foresight researchers improve the correctness and reduce the complexity in foresight studies by the foresight research system. Providing foresight researchers a complete tool for foresight study. Concluding previous explanation, the specific contribution of this thesis is fitting future research methodologies in foresight research process, providing foresight research a complete process. Second, modularize foresight research process and future research methodologies, let future researchers using it property and flexibility. Third, the UML model makes foresight research system as possible.
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Chang, Ya-Ting, and 張雅婷. "Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Planning Process." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/38363338908054742634.
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碩士國立中央大學
資訊管理學系
101
Nowadays the world is facing a huge change because of the high-speed information transmitting and the global competition of society, economy, knowledge resource and innovative technology. Due to the unpredictability of future tendency, the developments of organization need not only a systematic tool but also a vision and long-term planning to assist thinking and judging in order to achieve the desired future. The purpose of this study focuses on comprehensive foresight analysis, future research methodology and strategic planning and management, proposing the platform of foresight framework. For the foresight planning process of establishing steps and fitting methodology, object-oriented concepts have also been used in modeling foresight planning process. It makes researchers reduce the complexity of foresight studies by the platform of foresight framework. Foresight analysis, future research methodology and strategic planning and management are combined to propose the platform of foresight framework, which is divided into analysis, planning and evaluation stages. Based on the planning stage of research, the results of the analysis stage are used to achieve the vision and choose the best path from all the possible paths of future by dynamic programming. Dynamic calibration is used for evaluation stage to verify the consistency of the analysis and planning stages. Above all, the specific contribution of this research is to propose a platform of foresight framework; establishing steps and fitting future research methodology in foresight planning process; establishing the pseudo code of the planning stage of the platform to demonstrate the algorithms and logic of data flow; constructing object-oriented model of the planning stage of the platform so that foresight studies can be systematized and modularized.
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Chou, Shun-Ching, and 周舜青. "Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Analysis Process." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59028497493399189257.
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碩士國立中央大學
資訊管理學系
101
In recent years, the development of science and technology accelerates the speed of information transmission among countries, also led to the phenomenon of globalization and internationalization. To face such rapidly changing environment, governments started to work on foresight studies. First, the platform of foresight framework is attempted to be established to help foresight researchers conducting further research. Second, future research methodology was fitted to the analysis stage of the platform. Finally, object-oriented model of the analysis stage of the platform was constructed, so that foresight studies can be systematized and modularized to reduce the implementation complexity. Foresight, future research methodology and strategic planning and related management theories are combined to proposed the platform of foresight framework, which is divided into analysis, planning and evaluation stages. The purpose of the analysis stage is to analyze various future scenarios to provide the planning stage to establish vision and strategic planning, dynamic calibration is used in evaluation stage to verify the consistency of the analysis and planning stages. The specific contribution of the study is constructing the platform of foresight framework; fitting the appropriate future research methodologies to the analysis stage of the platform and establishing the steps of the analysis stage of the platform; creating the pseudo code of the analysis stage of the platform to demonstrate the algorithms and logic of data flow; constructing object-oriented model of the analysis stage of the platform so that foresight studies can be systematized and modularized.
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Wang, Yu-lun, and 王郁倫. "Policy Foresight into Taiwan Biopharmaceutical Industry:A Combination of Delphi and Q Methodology." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47406273458815612121.
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碩士國立高雄大學
亞太工商管理學系碩士班
99
Foresight programs in science and technology policy across Europe have been examined as responses from government to the changes and uncertainty in the future. The foresight studies have become a common tool to investigate what priorities should be set and how the resources will be allocated. However, there are not sufficient foresight researches on the biopharmaceutical industry in Taiwan. Although the cooperation of the government and stakeholders contribute enormously to the industry competition, there may be the existence of conceptualizing differentiation among them which results in inconsistency in policymaking and implementation. Therefore, this study aims to find out what the biopharmaceutical industry will be like in the next 20 years. Q methodology integrates qualitative and quantitative techniques to reveal social perspectives, and is often used to handle multi-view issues which are helpful for the interviewees to raise the real point of view on the research topic. This research aims at investigating officials’ and stakeholders’ patterns of cognitions toward policy foresight of biotechnology in Taiwan by using Q method. As mentioned above, biopharmaceutical industry is one of the main economical development objectives which were set by Taiwan government. This research aims to find out: 1. What opportunities and challenges will Taiwan’s biopharmaceutical industry encounter in the next 20 years? 2. Is there any existence of cognitive differences toward biopharmaceutical industry among the sectors of industry, government, academia, and research institution? And what are the policy preferences of the stakeholders? 3. How does Taiwan government foresee the future of the bio-pharmaceutical industry in Taiwan? In this research, 130 statements were collected from varied literatures published by OECD, American and European government to form a concourse. At the same time, a factorial design was formulated for this research based on the industrial value chain and competitive conditions matrix to make 24 statements. The 24 statements which are based on an extensive review of the biopharmaceutical literature were applied to conduct the modified Delphi survey. After two rounds of Delphi survey, 24 modified or new statements will become 24 Q cards to exam 30 interviewees’ points of view. In the end, the consensus would be formed and the priorities would be set. Moreover, policy instruments will be applied to provide policy suggestions and resources will be allocated to the right place and in the right time in the future. After applying the Q methodology, I found out the policy priorities which come from the interviewees’ perspectives could be ordered and divided into four patterns: indirectly supported policy, directly supported policy, investment in R&D and collaboration. The main priorities for the biopharmaceutical industry in Taiwan are directly and indirectly supported policy and collaboration. The findings in this study are: cognition gap among stakeholders, uneven information between the government and the industry, increase R&D resource and investment, and collaboration with cross-field. This research suggested that the government should apply policy marketing strategies to bridge the cognition gaps and policy instrument to bridge the policy gaps. Meanwhile, policy instruments and policy marketing will be given to suggest how to distribute resources and bridge the cognition gap while Taiwan has the determination to cultivate the biopharmaceutical industry for next 20 years. The contributions of this study are to provide some directions for the government, which wants to cultivate the biopharmaceutical industry, to know the developing priorities, and then to allocate resources with limited budget.
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Lin, Shiuan-Jia, and 林萱佳. "The Construction And Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16006381321699307739.
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碩士國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
100
In order to get with the environment changing quickly, survey the changing of environment and trends by foresight. There are always a gap between forecast and reality due to the different combination of foresight methods. Consider several methods used for foresight, such as The Foresight, The Vision and The Scenario Planning, and combine them into a complete foresight research framework by the meaning, characteristic, and the limit of each method, named “The Construction and Application on Methodology of Markov Chain for Foresight Scenario Planning” Analysis the case of the development of the Service Industry in 2015, the vision will be taking the abilities and the advantages we own, combining the unique culture and characteristic. While planning we separate the planning period into two stages, observing the type of key factors changing during the time period, and the influence toward the Service industry that would be classified into three clusters ：”policy, ” ”the support of technology,” ”the industry characteristic,” and consider those factors from the extra environment by Social, Technical, Ecological, Economic and Political-legal to describe the scenario, which not only show the environment changing but also help making a policy. Observing the trigger points to check those factors of uncertain states whether on anticipated possible routes or not, meanwhile to decide when to invest funding and resource to help rising the probability to get the vision. Provide a new and flawless method to foresight those key factors and scenario in the future by the Markov Foresight Scenario Planning method. Show those planning steps which connecting to the vision by case study to get a more specific and better result.
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Yang, Chi-Ying, and 楊奇穎. "A Systemic Fitness Study on the Construction of Foresight Model with Futures Research Methodology." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19317982730092351713.
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碩士國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
100
Recently, countries implement National Foresight Programes and invest in research and development to achieve competitive advantage and enhance social welfare. Meanwhile, organizations integrate multi-discipline foresight knowledge to help decision making and switch the focus from technology foresight to strategic foresight. This study aims to combine theories and concepts from strategic management, foresight and futures research methodology three fields. Corresponding to the level of methodology, related theories/concepts, stages/process and methods/steps are introduced. By applying scenario planning, markov chain and dynamic programming, a four-stage, thirty-one-process foresight model is constructed. Taken together, this study establishs a comprehensive and consistent foresight model. Based on vision, organizations determine its long-term future benchmarks and understand the transformation of key factors with interaction between driving forces, events and issues through the extention of markov process. Next, organizations can capture key factors and therefore sense trends to build alternative scenarios. Last, organizations may use dynamic programming or backcasting methods to draw out the most appropriate develepomental path and recognize the timing of alignment. All in all, this model points out how and when to systemically take futures research methods to solve specific problems and formulating strategies to shape and achieve preferable future states.
Books on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Inzelt, Annamária. Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1996.
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Loveridge, Denis. Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge, 2009.
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Loveridge, Denis. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. Taylor & Francis Group, 2009.
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Loveridge, Denis. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. Taylor & Francis Group, 2008.
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Loveridge, Denis. Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. Taylor & Francis Group, 2008.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Saritas, Ozcan. "Systemic Foresight Methodology." In Science, Technology and Innovation Policy for the Future, 83–117. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31827-6_6.
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Portaleoni, Claudio Gomez, Svetla Marinova, Rehan ul-Haq, and Marin Marinov. "Methodology." In Corporate Foresight and Strategic Decisions, 92–113. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137326973_4.
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Sapio, Bartolomeo, and Enrico Nicolò. "Scenario Transfer Methodology and Technology." In Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies, 177–86. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5215-7_11.
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Gräßler, Iris, and Jens Pottebaum. "From Agile Strategic Foresight to Sustainable Mechatronic and Cyber-Physical Systems in Circular Economies." In Design Methodology for Future Products, 3–26. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78368-6_1.
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Güemes-Castorena, David, and Juan L. Amezcua-Martínez. "Strategic Foresight Methodology to Identifying Business Opportunities and Technology Trends." In Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry, 53–65. London: Springer London, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6_4.
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Skulimowski, Andrzej M. J. "Visions of a Future Research Workplace Arising from Recent Foresight Exercises." In Progress in IS, 169–85. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-66262-2_11.
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AbstractThe results of recent foresight projects reveal the impact of future ICT tools on the practice of scientific research. This paper presents several aspects of the process of building scenarios and trends of selected advanced ICT technologies. We point out the implications of emerging global expert systems (GESs) and AI-based learning platforms (AILPs). GESs will be capable of using and processing global knowledge from all available sources, such as databases, repositories, video streams, interactions with other researchers and knowledge processing units. In many scientific disciplines, the high volume, density and increasing level of interconnection of data have already exhausted the capacities of any individual researcher. Three trends may dominate the development of scientific methodology. Collective research is one possible coping strategy: Group intellectual capacity makes it possible to tackle complex problems. Recent data flow forecasts indicate that even in the few areas, which still resist ICT domination, research based on data gathered in non-ICT supported collections will soon reach its performance limits due to the ever-growing amount of knowledge to be acquired, verified, exchanged and communicated between researchers. Growing automation of research is the second option: Automated expert systems will be capable of selecting and processing knowledge to the level of a professionally edited scientific paper, with only minor human involvement. The third trend is intensive development and deployment of brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) to quickly access and process data. Specifically, GESs and AILPs can be used together with BCIs. The above approaches may eventually merge, forming a few AI-related technological scenarios, as discussed to conclude the paper.
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"2. Systemic Foresight Methodology in Action." In Strategic Foresight, 5–20. De Gruyter, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9783110672916-002.
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Hall, Jim W., Jonathan D. Simm, and Edward P. Evans. "2 Introduction to the Foresight ‘Future Flooding’ methodology." In Future flooding and coastal erosion risks, 13–28. Thomas Telford Publishing, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/ffacer.34495.0002.
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Gidley, Jennifer M. "2. The future multiplied." In The Future: A Very Short Introduction, 44–62. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780198735281.003.0003.
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What if there is not one future that can be colonized and controlled, but many possible futures that can be imagined, designed, and created collaboratively? In everyday language we speak of a singular future, which has both conceptual and political implications. ‘The future multiplied’ outlines early future research—influenced by scientific positivism—with its predictive-empirical approach, then discusses pluralism in the social sciences and the shift to multiple futures thinking. Pluralizing the future opens it up for envisioning and creating alternative futures to the status quo. The chapter concludes with a variety of methods used in multiple futures research approaches, including the four-step Swinburne methodology used in strategic foresight applications.
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Schneider, Ariane Hinça, Laila Del Bem Seleme, Felipe Fontes Rodrigues, Marilia de Souza, and Helio Gomes de Carvalho. "Innovation in Scenario Building." In Technological, Managerial and Organizational Core Competencies, 302–25. IGI Global, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-61350-165-8.ch017.
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Situated in Paraná state in southern Brazil, the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba (MRC) is home to an automotive sector which plays a major role in the local and national economy. In order to expand the development of the automotive sector and to create new local and worldwide opportunities, the Federation of Industries of Paraná (FIEP) developed and employed an innovative scenario building methodology to analyze the automotive industry’s potential for innovation and attendance of new market demands for 2020; which is Sector Foresight. Therefore, results allow the players to have a clearer managerial view of the industry’s possible future. This chapter seeks to publicize the experience as well as the results of this innovative project by focusing on the methodology and tools. Data sources included a review of the literature, document analysis, direct observation, semi-structured interviews and two rounds of questionnaires. This experience contributed to innovate the organizational and methodological processes of FIEP, and to improve the perspective of innovation in the automotive sector through a new approach to scenario building. Results also shown this methodology can be applied to other industries in future studies.
Conference papers on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Tronina, Irina. "Development Of A Regional Foresight Research Methodology." In IV International Scientific Conference "Competitiveness and the development of socio-economic systems" dedicated to the memory of Alexander Tatarkin. European Publisher, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.04.88.
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Diez, C., W. Zapata, M. Restrepo, and O. Fernandez. "Methodology for the foresight analysis of electricity markets." In Exposition: Latin America. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tdc-la.2008.4641824.
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Nazarko, Lukasz. "TOWARDS SMARTER SPECIALISATION – KEY DRIVERS OF NANOTECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN PODLASKIE REGION." In Business and Management 2018. VGTU Technika, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2018.24.
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The paper focuses on the issue of the approaches and methods used in the identification of regional smart specialisation areas. It is argued that foresight is a critical element in the formulation of a smart specialisation strategy. More extensive use of tools from the field of foresight and future studies may lead to smarter specialisations – the ones that anticipate the emergence of high-growth technologies and sectors. At the same time it is observed that foresight approach is insufficiently ap-preciated in Poland in this context. The case of Podlaskie voivodship is described. The results of a technological foresight project on nanotechnology development in Podlaskie voivodship is presented together with a proposal of a methodology for updating its results.
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Davis, Paul K., and James P. Kahan. "Foresight for commanders: a methodology to assist planning for effects-based operations." In Defense and Security Symposium, edited by Dawn A. Trevisani. SPIE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.667033.
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Dominiece-Diasa, Baiba, Ineta Portnova, and Tatjana Volkova. "STRATEGIC FORESIGHT: TOWARDS ENHANCING LEADERSHIP CAPABILITIES AND BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY." In Business and Management 2018. VGTU Technika, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2018.05.
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Organizations with well-developed strategic foresight capabilities have higher level awareness about the emerging pattern of external environment threats and opportunities and make better decisions to respond to these challenges. Scholars emphasise that even though topics on leadership and leadership capabilities have become increasingly popular, there is still little research on concepts and methods of ”futures studies”. Research purpose is to investigate the level of development of strategic foresight capabilities on the top management level in the drone industry and its application for ensuring long term business sustainability. Research methodology: a case study method and semi-structured inter-views. The main results of the research show that the drone industry applies some strategic foresight capabilities which are not fully recognized and exploited systematically by the business leaders. De-velopment and application of strategic foresight capabilities could be considered as a strategic priori-ty in the industry.
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Monfared, R. P., A. A. West, R. Harrison, and M. Wilkinson. "A User-Oriented Interface Methodology for Automotive Manufacturing Machines Developed under the Foresight Vehicle Programme." In SAE 2002 World Congress & Exhibition. 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States: SAE International, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2002-01-0469.
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Canina, Marita, Carmen Bruno, and Eva Monestier. "An operational framework of methods for designing ethical and sustainable future digital scenarios." In 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1001507.
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The rapid pace of technological innovations is changing almost every aspect of people’s lives. Indeed, digital technologies are reshaping behaviors and human interactions as well as having great impacts on the environmental, political and economic level (Schwab, 2016). In this scenario, it becomes paramount for people to be able to adapt to this increasingly digital environment to reach the so-called Digital Maturity (MIT Sloan Management Review, 2017) and to recognize and unlock the huge potentialities of emerging technologies to foster sustainable development (WEF & PwC, 2020).Such topics are being addressed and tackled by the Digital Creativity for developing Digital Maturity Future Skills (DC4DM) European Project [1], a three-year project funded by the Erasmus + Program and whose outcome will be the spread of an educational model to train students to become Digital Maturity Enablers, new professional figures up-skilled to drive the change and to creatively envision future possibilities. Digital Maturity Enablers, indeed, have to possess a set of Digital Creative Abilities (DCAs) which encompass all those competencies, attitudes and mindsets that allow them to unleash their full creative potential. The empowerment and practice of such DCAs are enabled by the DC4DM educational model, a creativity-driven design model to free learners’ creativity and ease the achievement of a Digital Maturity (Bruno & Canina, 2021).Some DCAs can be trained simultaneously and are thus grouped in the so-called Drivers, clusters of DCAs that allow learners to gain awareness on paramount topics applied to digital technologies, namely digital ethics and sustainability, collaboration, technology foresight, data collection and complexity. Within this context, the aim of the paper is to introduce an operational framework built as part of the methodology used to identify the most important methods and tools to enhance the DCAs related to ethics, sustainability and futures thinking. Indeed, an ad hoc methodology was implemented in order to provide a systematic overview of the existing resources that could be useful to develop the competencies to design responsibly and sustainably with digital technologies and to envision futures possibilities. The effort has been channeled into mapping and clustering methods, tools, techniques and formats i.e. every type of resource that could help students acquire the creative abilities included in the cross model area called “Digital Responsibility and Sustainability”. As a matter of fact, the initial draft of the DC4DM model, the starting point to conceive the methodology, consisted of three phases, namely Pre-Process, Process and Post-Process, and a cross model area which included all the ethics, sustainability and futures thinking-related abilities essential when dealing with digital technologies. In order to filter and systematize the selected resources, these three dimensions have been considered as macro-categories and some criteria identified to steer the classification process. Based on their objectives, all the resources have been mapped on the DC4DM model, sorted between the Pre-Process and Process phase and finally collected in a digital booklet. So far the booklet has been used internally by the DC4DM consortium which is actually willing to make it an open online repository accessible to anyone interested in improving specific abilities. [1] https://www.dc4dm.eu/
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Droste, Koen, and Marijn Hage. "Support Functionality in System Modelling: The Chicken or the Egg." In SNAME 14th International Marine Design Conference. SNAME, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/imdc-2022-272.
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This paper discusses findings and challenges faced when implementing system modelling as a part of MBSE in a naval ship design process. The design, production, and life-cycle support of complex military vessels is accompanied by large sets of requirements. These sets are created, maintained, and processed by various stakeholders and face an increase in interrelations due to extended automation and electrification of ships. These challenges are addressed by advancing the design process to a model-based system engineering (MBSE) process. The current V-model based design process serves as the framework within which MBSE is pursued. MBSE greatly improves traceability of requirements, consistency between system solutions and requirements, and product verification. Concretely, a MBSE implementation into the current design practice based on the Arcadia methodology and the Capella tooling is pursued. The main advantages are a well published methodology, wider application within the supply chain, and a community supported, open-source toolset. The initial results include a successful integration into the existing design process. Hereby both the connection with the design disciplines such mechanical design, automation, and electrical design, and connection with the design aspect analysis such as vulnerability, safety, and ILS has been established. Within this transition the usual challenges were faced, including but not limited to setting up a new team, establishing the work processes, and the culture change that comes along with MBSE. These were addressed by training, information, and a robust work process. However various challenges remain, especially with the support functionality that results from selecting specific physical solutions. The developed work process starts with evaluating the desired missions that the design should be able to execute. For each of these missions the required capabilities are modelled. Subsequently, for all capabilities a functional chain is modelled which links all required functions and their dependencies. However not all capabilities are directly linked to the missions as some capabilities are required to support other capabilities and often these support capabilities are only identified when specific physical solutions are chosen. Therefore, to develop a consistent set of capabilities, the design needs to be developed simultaneously at both capabilities level and the physical solution. This simultaneous development causes an iterative process which is insufficiently supported in the tools and a challenging control process as the design develops in a non-linear fashion. Nevertheless, a method was found to circumvent some of these challenges by pre-allocating certain support capabilities and their functionality in a logical distribution network. This allows for a more gradual development and thereby overcomes aforementioned challenges. But it predefines part of the physical solution already in the capability design. Also, it doesn’t prevent the iterative process, because the pre-allocation is as good as the designer’s foresight into the design development. Concluding, a successful initial implementation of system modelling activities within the context of the current design process was performed. Additionally, a method was developed to deal with the interrelation between support capabilities and physical system solutions. The paper concludes with a forecast on future developments in this application.
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Ping, Jiang, An Jiangtao, and Liu Changliang. "Application of Nuclear Insurance Risk Survey Results in Nuclear Power Plant Safety Improvement Program." In 2022 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone29-90396.
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Abstract From the prospective of loss prevention, economic risk reduction and catastrophe risk reduction, nuclear insurance risk survey provides professional and foresighted safety improvement recommendations based on the international nuclear and insurance experience. As a common international risk management practice, nuclear insurers provide loss prevention evaluation services, which is considered as peer review by nuclear operators. With the development of Chinese insurance industry and increasing loss prevention demand from Chinese nuclear power plant, Chinese insurance industry gradually integrates international practice, and establishes a systematic, Chinese characterized nuclear insurance survey methodology. This thesis introduces insurance survey background and importance, analyses the areas in which insurance survey could support nuclear power risk management. This paper focuses on risk survey methodology and implementation plan based on insurance service practices, and analyses survey result trends. The methodology has been implemented in nuclear power risk management regime. Recent cases have verified the insurance survey could support nuclear power plant safety improvement. Besides, based on the current practice, this paper suggest the potential ways to improve the interface between insurance risk survey and nuclear power risk management, improve common risk and enhance survey effectiveness.
Reports on the topic "Foresight methodology"
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Choi-Allum, Lona. Foresight 50+ Consumer Omnibus: Project Report Methodology, March 2022. Washington, DC: AARP Research, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26419/res.00545.002.
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Choi-Allum, Lona. Foresight 50+ Consumer Omnibus: Project Report Methodology, May 2022. Washington, DC: AARP Research, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26419/res.00545.004.
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Choi-Allum, Lona. Foresight 50+ Consumer Omnibus: Project Report Methodology, April 2022. Washington, DC: AARP Research, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26419/res.00545.003.
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Kipp, Jacob W. The Methodology of Foresight and Forecasting in Soviet Military Affairs. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada196677.
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