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Journal articles on the topic 'Foresight methodology'
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Шинина, Татьяна, Tatyana Shinina, Инна Морозова, and Inna Morozova. "Research Foresight — a New Educational Technology for Developing the Competencies of Industry Managers Cost." Scientific Research and Development. Socio-Humanitarian Research and Technology 7, no. 3 (October 1, 2018): 54–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/article_5ba389ad77dbd4.30665257.
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The article is devoted to the disclosure of the prerequisites for the creation and description of the theoretical foundations of the new educational technology «Re-foresight» («Research Foresight»). The article justified the request for new educational technologies in working with the managers of the new formation. The genesis of the foresight methodology is presented, in which the content thread of the formation of instruments of influence on the development of the strategies of the country, region, and industry is traced. The road map of author's educational technology for research foresight is given, which includes the stages: improvement of managerial competencies, real forecasting, design of management decisions, assessment; application of modern teaching methods: igrofication, visualization of meanings, personal reflection. A triad of psychological categories (personality - activity - communication) is presented, forming the methodology of educational technology «Re-Foresight». The educational technology «Re-Foresight» has been approved in the construction of the image of the future youth branch of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District and can be applied at the regional and municipal level, as well as in carrying out branch and corporate foresights.
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Dumanska, Ilona. "METHODOLOGY OF FORESIGHT-ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE." Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 7, no. 3 (June 25, 2021): 109–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2021-7-3-109-117.
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The purpose of the article is to substantiate the systemic principles of implementation of foresight-analysis of international trade as a method of strategic forecasting at the macro level, the formation of its methodological tools and implementation models. Methodology. The article used general and special research methods. Classification of types of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade and their characteristics, the formation of a set of factors influencing it was based on grouping, synthesis and formalization. Economic modeling, scientific abstraction, systems analysis were used in building a model of foresight-analysis of international trade and identified the factors of negative impact on it. Using the method of coefficients, structural analysis and analytical comparison offers groups of economic indicators of foreign trade to analyze the development of international trade in the preparatory stage of foresight-analysis. Results. It is established that the system of classifications of foresight-analysis allows its application not only at the national level of forecasting the development of trade, but also internationally. It is revealed that when applying the methodology of foresight-analysis of international trade development it is necessary to take into account the purposeful influence of endogenous and exogenous factors. The model of providing the methodology of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade is structured, which includes the following components: system methodology, strategic guidelines, information and analytical support, implementation process and a set of methodological tools. It is found that the combined application of methods (quantitative, qualitative, mixed) in the foresight-analysis of the development of international trade provides maximum efficiency. The addition of the structure of economic methods of foresight-analysis by a group of economic indicators that assess the level of development of foreign trade of a country is substantiated and proposed. Practical implementation. Formation of methodological tools and models for the implementation of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade, taking into account the specifics of foreign trade policy of states based on a consolidated group of economic indicators. Value/originality. The proposed groups of economic indicators can be used in the decomposition of methods of foresight-analysis of international trade to confirm the effectiveness of strategic directions of foreign trade policy and sound forecasting of its effectiveness in the future.
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Proskuryakova, Liliana. "Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities." foresight 19, no. 2 (April 10, 2017): 139–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2016-0034.
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Purpose The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study. Findings As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made. Research limitations/implications Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents. Practical implications The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies. Originality/value This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.
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Roveda, C., R. Vecchiato, R. Verganti, and P. Landoni. "A new methodology for regional foresight." International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy 3, no. 2 (2007): 218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijfip.2007.011626.
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ROGACHEVSKYI, Oleksandr. "CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF PROVIDING FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY IN THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH CARE SECTOR." Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics 5, no. 3 (September 7, 2020): 304–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2020-3-33.
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Introduction. The use of strategic tools to manage the health sector is currently an urgent problem for Ukraine. Foresight technology aims to democratize the processes of socio-economic regulation and management in the national environment of the country, which provides a social function in the health sector. The purpose of the article is to propose a conceptual model for providing a foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector. Results. The analysis of the factors influencing the foresight methodology for the healthcare sector, in the structure of which endogenous and exogenous factors occupy a special place. The model for providing the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector was proposed. The scenarios used in the foresight methodology should show the possible alternative changes in the relevant environment of the national health care sector and their impact on the prospects of strategic development of the medical sector, as well as the reverse impact of medical technology on the industry. It should be emphasized that the scenarios effectively complement the results of SWOT-analysis, brainstorming, patent analysis, cross-interaction research, etc., as the structured system of methodical tools of the foresight methodology is constantly changing. The system of methods used in foresight methodology is analyzed. The application of foresight technology for the analysis of scenarios for further development of the Covid-19 pandemic is analyzed. Conclusions. According to the results of the study, it is proved that in the conditions of transparent transformations of the national healthcare sector, the application of the foresight methodology will allow to raise to a new level measures to create a modern model of medical facilities in the country, providing quality medical services to citizens of the country. The application of the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the country's healthcare sector will provide a visualization of the probable trend of development of the medical sphere and its components, through the socio-economic and innovation-technological component. Keywords: healthcare, strategic management, strategy, healthcare industry, foresight.
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Jore, Sissel Haugdal, Inger-Lise Førland Utland, and Victoria Hell Vatnamo. "The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning." foresight 20, no. 1 (March 12, 2018): 68–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2017-0045.
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Purpose Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex. Findings Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.
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Maia Chinchaladze, Maia Chinchaladze, Nino Darsavelidze Nino Darsavelidze, Lela Bochoidze Lela Bochoidze, and Ana Kurtanidze Ana Kurtanidze. "Forsyth Methodology - A Strategic Tool For The Development of Regional Industries." Economics 105, no. 1-2 (February 7, 2022): 68–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.36962/ecs105/1-2/2022-68.
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The article deals with the role of foresight research in the strategic development of industries and companies, improving their capabilities, and the appropriateness of developing a methodology. Forsyth projects are characterized by an integrated approach, a high degree of involvement of all project participants in decision making. The impact of external and internal factors on current processes often requires adjustment, in the case of foresight these processes are subject to rapid adjustment. (Even in the case of strategic planning and forecasting - it takes some time). All resources are distributed in the necessary directions, decisions are optimized, economic sustainability is ensured. It is noteworthy that within the framework of Forsyth, the work is underway at various levels - national, regional and sectoral. Forsyth research - at four levels - at national, regional, sectoral and corporate levels. Keywords: Forecasting, planning, foresight research, foresight projects.
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Gusmanov, Rasul, Almir Askarov, Milyausha Lukyanova, Vitaliy Kovshov, and Eugene Stovba. "Strategic Planning of Rural Development Based on Foresight Methodologies." Scientifica 2020 (February 20, 2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5195104.
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The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.
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Makhova, N. "Foresight: Country Specifics and General Patterns." World Economy and International Relations, no. 8 (2014): 34–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2014-8-34-44.
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Foresight has become a widely employed method in the last decades, however only few of the foresight programmes proved to be successful and long lasting. This poses a controversy taking into account that the concept and the methodology of foresight have been exhaustively studied, and the achieved level of information, consultative and organizational support at hand is sufficient to carry out projects of different scale and subject. The author presumes that the reasons lie in the predominant attention of foresight actors to its material outcomes and methodology instead of mechanisms that form the very basis of the system, whose future is subject to analysis by means of foresight. The hypothesis is further justified with analysis of foresight programmes in the Great Britain and Brazil, which enables to propose a revised definition of the foresight concept.
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Kishita, Yusuke. "Foresight and Roadmapping Methodology: Trends and Outlook." Foresight and STI Governance 15, no. 2 (June 25, 2021): 5–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2021.2.5.11.
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This guest editorial article introduces contextual and theoretical frameworks of foresight and futures studies’ methodology. Outstanding questions relating to methodological development are then addressed. This is followed by an introduction to five papers that make important methodological contributions. The article ends by a call for further research on the questions that have been identified, but remain unanswered.
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Mishenin, Y., I. Yarova, and H. Mishenina. "Features of Foresight Methodology Application in the Forestry Complex of Ukraine: Sectoral and Spatial Aspect." Marketing and Management of Innovations, no. 4 (2019): 229–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2019.4-18.
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This article substantiates the content basis of application of the foresight methodology in the forestry complex in the context of sustainable spatial forestry management. Socio-ecological and economic effectiveness of sustainable forestry is determined by the completeness of continuous and non-exhaustive use of all components of forest ecosystems, including non-market, at all levels of spatial development (local, regional, national and global). It stipulates the high responsibility of the world community, society, state, local authorities and businesses for political, institutional, economic, technological, and project decisions in the sphere of forestry management in the spatial-temporal dimension. It leads to the need for qualitative forecasting of the future sustainable development of the forestry complex, which determines the search and application of modern effective approaches to strategic planning and management of the forestry complex, among which foresight is particularly highlighted. Thus, the paper considers the key features of foresight, which must be taken into account when investigating the future vision of sustainable spatial development of forestry. Thus, the purpose of this study is to generalize and identify the features and possibilities of using the foresight methodology in the forestry complex in the context of sustainable spatial development. The particular features of nature management in the forestry complex in the process of foresight research should be taken into consideration. Existing principles and classification signs for the foresight are presented in the context of sustainable forestry. The application of existing foresight methods is implemented on the example of using the scenario approach to the substantiation of organizational and economic conditions for the formation and development of ecosystem entrepreneurship. At the same time, we have considered the application of the scenario approach within the framework of solving the problem of forest ecosystem business development. The development of entrepreneurship on the ecological and economic basis should become a qualitatively new and effective type of forestry management based on the use of advanced, innovative methods, forms, methods of production organization and combination of resources. The variable development of the use of the scenario approach to the substantiation of organizational and economic conditions for the formation and development of forest ecosystem entrepreneurship has been presented. Thus, the use of various foresight technologies (in particular, the scenario approach) will provide a qualitatively new level of constructive substantiation, in particular, the national strategy for sustainable forestry and long-term forestry programs on an innovative basis. Keywords: foresight, forestry complex, sustainable spatial forestry, foresight principles, foresight classification, scenario, ecosystem entrepreneurship
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Stepanenko, Raviya F. "Foresight is in the law: methodological possibilities and prospects." Gosudarstvo i pravo, no. 11 (2022): 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s102694520022759-5.
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The article discusses the problems and possibilities of using foresight in law. Being a scientific and unscientific form of predicting the development of a phenomenon, event, situation in law, foresight is based on knowledge (foreknowledge) of objective laws, trends and accidents and has a probabilistic character. The verification of foresight is confirmed by practice and knowledge about the expected scenario of events can be both heuristically positive and negative. Being implemented in such forms as goal-setting, forecasting and management, foresight in law allows you to take a number of preventive measures that minimize the possible occurrence of negative consequences for the social order. The expediency of foresight in law is limited by the methodological possibilities of jurisprudence, which are overcome with the help of the methodology of interdisciplinarity, which is gaining scientific popularity today. Key words: foresight, foresight in law, forecasting, constructivism, methodology of interdisciplinarity, legal policy.
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Ravetz, Joe, and Ian Douglas Miles. "Foresight in cities: on the possibility of a “strategic urban intelligence”." foresight 18, no. 5 (September 12, 2016): 469–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2015-0037.
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Purpose This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method. Findings The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence. Practical implications The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis. Originality/value The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.
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Hafezi, Reza, Siavosh Malekifar, and Amirnaser Akhavan. "Analyzing Iran’s science and technology foresight programs: recommendations for further practices." foresight 20, no. 3 (June 11, 2018): 312–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2017-0064.
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PurposeStudying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.FindingsAlthough concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.Research limitations/implicationsThe main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.Originality/valueIran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.
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Joneidi Jafari, Mahdi, and Seyed Akbar NiliPourTabataba’i. "Corporate foresight and its effect on innovation, strategic decision making and organizational performance (case study: Iranian banking industry)." foresight 19, no. 6 (November 13, 2017): 559–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2017-0035.
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Purpose This paper aims to examine the capability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran. Design/methodology/approach In the first part, upon introducing corporate foresight from the two process and content perspectives, influential elements in this construct are discussed. Then, corporate foresight’s relationship with innovation and strategic decision-making is examined and its effect on organizational performance is analyzed within a structural model. Using interview and questionnaire, the data research were collected from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (state-commercial banks, specialist-state banks, interest-free loan funds and private banks). Through descriptive, inferential statistical analyses and structural equation modeling using SPSS and Smart PLS software, reliability of the measurement model with 576 samples was confirmed. Findings The results show that the corporate foresight playing three roles of initiator, strategist, and opponent affects the innovation. Moreover, the research results suggest that using the data from the foresight and identifying the weak signals, we can reduce the uncertainty and issue prior warnings in order to enhance the quality of manager’s strategic decision making and promote the organizational performance. Originality/value This paper is one of the articles from the sources of the doctoral thesis of Futures Studies as “The relationship between knowledge absorption capacity, corporate foresight and its effect on the performance of the banking industry in Iran”.
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Valadares Tavares, L. "Foresight and governance: a problem-oriented methodology (GOVSIGHT)." International Transactions in Operational Research 10, no. 2 (March 2003): 169–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-3995.00402.
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Andryukhina, L. M., K. V. Vavaeva, and L. A. Komlichenko. "THE XXI CENTURY COMPETENCIES FORMATION: THE METHODOLOGY OF FORESIGHT, “ADORNATION” AND DECONSTRUCTION." INSIGHT, no. 2(5) (2021): 65–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.17853/2686-8970-2021-2-65-81.
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The methodology of foresight and “adornation” of competencies is analyzed. The concept of deconstruction of competencies is introduced. The article substantiates the necessity of foresight, adornment and deconstruction in the process of forming competencies of the future, the relationship of which can be represented both in the form of a cycle of successive technologies, and in the form of intertwining processes with one of the technologies dominating, depending on the specifics of the situation and the social context
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Wilner, Alex, and Martin Roy. "Canada’s emerging foresight landscape: observations and lessons." foresight 22, no. 5/6 (July 6, 2020): 551–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-03-2020-0027.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold: to introduce scholars and practitioners of foresight to the emerging Canadian foresight ecosystem, and to provide lessons learned on developing policy foresight from the Government of Canada context. Design/methodology/approach The paper provides a series of lessons based in part on informal and indirect observations and engagement with established Canadian foresight entities, including Policy Horizons Canada, and numerous newly established foresight initiatives at Global Affairs Canada, Standards Council of Canada and the Canadian Forest Service. Findings The paper finds that Canada’s newly emerging foresight units and initiatives face structural, institutional and organizational challenges to their long-term success, including in concretely measuring foresight outcome (rather than simply output) in policy making. Originality/value The paper provides a unique and empirically driven perspective of the foresight ecosystem that has emerged within the Canadian federal public service since 2015. Lessons are culled from this emerging network of Canadian foresight practitioners for international application.
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Poli, Roberto. "Social foresight." On the Horizon 23, no. 2 (May 11, 2015): 85–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/oth-01-2015-0003.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the three guiding ideas of the social foresight course, namely, the difference between abstract and concrete futures (i.e. the difference between risk and uncertainty); the three levels of futures studies (forecast, foresight and anticipation); and an overview of the early signs of the incipient shift of human and social sciences from their so-far predominant past-orientation to a new, still unfolding, future-orientation. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is a reconstruction of the guiding ideas that have been used for designing the social foresight course. Findings – As far as anticipation is concerned, the authors’ understanding of anticipation is still cursory, and the novelty of the perspective may conceal the difficulty implied by this otherwise refreshingly new vision. The theory is at such an early phase of development that it still lacks a unified conceptual language for theorizing and operationalizing anticipation to facilitate cross-disciplinary conversations. Originality/value – The ability to anticipate in complex environments may improve the resilience of societies under threat from a global proliferation of agents and forces by articulating insecurities through anticipatory processes. However, to achieve this end, the joint expertise and theoretical awareness of both the futurists and the human and social scientists is needed.
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Gaponenko, Nadezhda. "In search of sectoral foresight methodology: Bridging foresight and sectoral system of innovation and production." Futures 135 (January 2022): 102859. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102859.
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Hideg, Eva, Erzsébet Nováky, and Péter Alács. "Interactive foresight on the Hungarian SMEs." Foresight 16, no. 4 (August 5, 2014): 344–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-12-2012-0091.
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Purpose – The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region. Design/methodology/approach – A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed, which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too. Findings – Personal meetings with small and medium enterprise (SME) stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around the research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running. Research limitations/implications – The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process. Practical implications – The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organizational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas. Social implications – Application of interactive foresight process can contribute to the development of anticipatory democracy. Originality/value – A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and cooperative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.
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Lyasnikov, N. V., M. N. Dudin, V. D. Sekerin, and B. D. Moguev. "Use of innovative foresight in ensuring the competitiveness of business structures." Izvestiya MGTU MAMI 7, no. 1-5 (September 10, 2013): 142–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/2074-0530-67844.
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Strategic management is the development of an innovative methodology for the development of society in the XXI century. One of the most effective formats of research is a foresight research. The use of foresight method for entrepreneurial organization allows to increase their level of competitiveness by forming "advanced" strategies, to adapt to new technologies and limited resources, prediction of demand and consequently risk. This article covers the basics of strategic management of innovative development of business structures in Russia using foresight. The article also presents theoretical aspects of innovative foresight.
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Baškarada, Saša, Diana Shrimpton, and Simon Ng. "Learning through foresight." Foresight 18, no. 4 (August 8, 2016): 414–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-09-2015-0045.
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Purpose This paper aims to investigate how and why foresight may affect individual and organizational learning. Design/methodology/approach This paper builds on prior research through a qualitative study with 13 foresight practitioners. Findings This paper derives four broad foresight capabilities that are underpinned by a number of interdependent factors and relates those to the wider literature on individual and organizational learning. Practical implications Practitioners may use this paper’s findings to enhance any individual and organizational learning effects of foresight activities. Deriving four broad foresight capabilities via a range of interdependent factors may assist practitioners with evaluating and/or enhancing the effectiveness of these capabilities in an organized fashion. Additionally, the findings show that foresight mode, with its strong relationship to foresight-related accountabilities and incentives, plays a central role in all four foresight capabilities. This stresses the importance of having a continuous foresight capability with strong top management commitment, effective governance and clearly defined roles and responsibilities. Originality/value This paper makes a number of theoretical contributions. First, it contributes toward further operationalizing foresight. Second, it demonstrates a substantial overlap between the concepts of foresight and absorptive capacity, which suggests that foresight scholars and practitioners may benefit from a large and mature related body of literature. Third, it identifies explicit links between specific foresight and individual/organizational learning constructs.
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Hines, Andy. "Evolution of framework foresight." foresight 22, no. 5/6 (June 26, 2020): 643–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-03-2020-0018.
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Purpose The organization’s core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Foresight, emerged from piecemeal roots in the 1990s to an established method circa 2013. Since then, it has evolved from primarily a teaching tool to a project methodology in its own right. The purpose of this paper is to explore the iterative process that has emerged in which teaching and practice inform and advance one another. Design/methodology/approach Innovations in technique will be highlighted and illustrated by commentary from project experience. The piece will be providing readers with a birds-eye view into the evolution of a foresight method in both theory and practice. Findings The continuous iteration between theory and practice, or the classroom and the client world, provides an excellent means to advance the teaching and practice of foresight. Significant changes include three horizons, inputs, drivers, archetypes, rating scenarios and strategic approach. Practical implications This paper suggests that closer relationships between academia and the external/client world provide practical benefit by improving teaching and providing more innovative approaches for clients. Originality/value The description of the development of this unique approach to doing foresight work provides an example for other programs or firms to emulate.
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Verdenhofa, Olga, Mykola V. Afanas'jev, Anastasiia Panchuk, Iuliia Kotelnykova, and Ganna Chumak. "The conceptual bases of introduction of foresight marketing into business management." Problems and Perspectives in Management 16, no. 3 (August 3, 2018): 163–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(3).2018.13.
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The article outlines a critical analysis of theoretical approaches to the development of the concept of foresight marketing on the basis of which the own definition of “foresight marketing” has been developed. Modern enterprises are interested in receiving reasonable foresight forecasts in marketing, which was not sufficiently distributed in the practical activity of the enterprise.Theoretical and practical aspects of the foresight framework are still explored insufficiently. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to improve the theoretical framework of foresight marketing and to create the conceptual model of foresight marketing.The following scientific methods have been used in this research: system analysis, content analysis, comparative method, method of logical generalization, morphological method, dialectics of the relationship between fundamental and applied knowledge.The analysis revealed imperfection of the theoretical apparatus of foresight marketing, thus, the modern approach to the interconnection and balance of foresight marketing and strategic marketing on the enterprises was suggested. To develop a conceptual model of foresight marketing, the authors have considered and described its major components. A conceptual model of foresight marketing is a systematic combination of certain elements, namely: conditions, barriers, and prerequisites; subject and object; methodology of foresight marketing; principles, tools, and categories.The article presents a generalized model of foresight marketing process, which shows the basic subjects and bases on four consecutive stages. The authors provide a new perspective as for the concept of foresight marketing and the basic prerequisites for the implementation of foresight in marketing management.
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Rozhdestvenskaya, E. A. "Education as a System: The Content of the Foresight Methodology." Siberian Journal of Philosophy 20, no. 2 (November 16, 2022): 68–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.25205/2541-7517-2022-20-2-68-78.
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The article reveals the substantive aspects of the Foresight methodology of social forecasting of the development of the education system as a complex, dynamic, open system from the point of view of a systematic approach. It is assumed that the education system is a central social institution, which, being associated with the transmission of knowledge, has to, in order to form a holistic personality of human beings, also support its own systemic complexity, as well as correspond to the complexity of the entire structure of society. The paper emphasizes some substantive difficulties in the work of experts in the framework of Foresight studies, as well as the need to take into account the value aspect when predicting the education of the future.
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Vishnevskiy, Konstantin, and Andrei Yaroslavtsev. "Russian S&T Foresight 2030: case of nanotechnologies and new materials." foresight 19, no. 2 (April 10, 2017): 198–217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2016-0041.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply Foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation of major trends, most promising products and technologies. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this goal, best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section “Nanotechnology and new materials”). The study used a wide range of advanced Foresight methods adapted to Russian circumstances. During the Foresight study, the authors integrated “market pull” and research “technology push” approaches including both traditional methods (priority-setting, roadmaps, global challenges analysis) and relatively new approaches (horizon scanning, weak signals, wild cards, etc.). Findings Using the methods of the Foresight, the authors identified trends with the greatest impact on the sphere of nanotechnology and new materials, promising markets, product groups and potential areas of demand for Russian innovation technologies and developments in this field. The authors assessed the state-of-the-art of the domestic research in the area of nanotechnologies and new materials to identify “white spots”, as well as parity zone and leadership, which can be the basis for integration into international alliances and positioning of Russia as a center of global technological development in this field. Originality/value The results of applying Foresight methodology toward revelation of the most prospective S&T areas in the field of nanotechnologies and new materials can be used by a variety of stakeholders including federal and regional authorities, technology platforms and innovation and industrial clusters, leading universities and scientific organizations in formulation of their research and strategic agenda. Russian businesses including both large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises can use results of the study in creating their strategic R&D programs and finding appropriate partners.
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Kononiuk, Anna, Anna Sacio-Szymańska, and Judit Gáspár. "How do companies envisage the future? Functional foresight approaches." Engineering Management in Production and Services 9, no. 4 (December 20, 2017): 21–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2017-0028.
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Abstract The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), nonprofit- organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes.
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A. Makarova, Ekaterina, and Anna Sokolova. "Foresight evaluation: lessons from project management." Foresight 16, no. 1 (March 4, 2014): 75–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-03-2012-0017.
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Purpose – The aim of this paper is to identify ways for improvement of the foresight evaluation framework on the basis of analysis and systematisation of accumulated experience in the field of project management. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on a detailed literature review devoted to an evaluation of foresight and traditional projects. The approaches to project evaluation in the field of project management were investigated, and the main steps of traditional project evaluation process were determined. The most commonly applied steps of foresight evaluation were identified by the analysis of recent foresight evaluation projects. The comparison of evaluation frameworks for foresight projects and traditional projects allows to provide recommendations for foresight evaluation framework improvement. Findings – The paper identifies several lessons for foresight evaluation from project management. The elements which can enrich foresight evaluation framework are the following: the development of an evaluation model; the extensive use of quantitative methods; the elaboration of evaluation scales; the inclusion of economic indicators into evaluation; and the provision of more openness and transparency for evaluation results. Originality/value – Given the importance of foresight evaluation procedures and the lack of a commonly applied methodological approach, the value of this paper consists in identifying a foresight evaluation framework and enriching it with elements of project management.
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Bussey, Marcus. "Concepts and effects: ordering and practice in foresight." Foresight 16, no. 1 (March 4, 2014): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2013-0017.
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Purpose – This article seeks to reflect on the role of key concepts in foresight and futures work. The goal is to explore a set of concepts and link them to the effects they have in the world of foresight practice. It is argued that concepts order foresight practice and that though each foresight context and practitioner is unique, concepts bring a sense of order and coherence to foresight work and futures thinking. This reflection is placed in the context of a set of first principles the author acknowledges as his starting place for futures thinking and foresight practice. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of conceptual analysis. Findings – Concepts have effects and these can be assessed based on their ability to increase social and personal resilience in contexts characterised by change, complexity and uncertainty. Research limitations/implications – Foresight practitioners clarify their own values and ethics through reflection on the concepts they use and the processes they deploy when working with clients. Practical implications – More reflective foresight practice; greater conceptual clarity when reflecting on and communicating/teaching foresight and futures thinking. Originality/value – This paper offers a basis for orienting foresight work towards the broader social goal of resilience through a deepened appreciation of how concepts inform process and structure meaning.
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Wyrwicka, Magdalena K., and Oksana Erdeli. "Strategic foresight as the methodology of preparing innovation activities." Marketing and Management of Innovations, no. 2 (2018): 339–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.2-26.
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Komissarova, M. A., M. M. Kulikov, M. M. Afanasiev, and N. V. Guzenko. "The Foresight Methodology in Strategic Planning at Regional Level." International Journal of Economics and Business Administration VIII, Special Issue 1 (August 1, 2020): 77–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.35808/ijeba/506.
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Pichugina, Maryna, and Lina Artemenko. "SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR UKRAINE: EU BENCHMARK AND FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY." Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Częstochowskiej Zarządzanie 42, no. 1 (June 2021): 45–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.17512/znpcz.2021.2.04.
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Fuller, Ted, and Krista Loogma. "Constructing futures: A social constructionist perspective on foresight methodology." Futures 41, no. 2 (March 2009): 71–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.039.
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Kastrinos, Nikos. "Do statistics need foresight?" foresight 20, no. 2 (April 9, 2018): 137–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2017-0039.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between foresight and official statistics in the context of sustainability and big-data. The aim is to draw ideas, guidance and lessons on how foresight could help national and international statistical offices deal with an increasingly turbulent and demanding environment. Design/methodology/approach The paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities posed by big data and sustainability for official statistics. Findings Drawing on the analysis of the BOHEMIA study – a foresight study launched by the European Commission to support its future policy for research and innovation – the paper proposes elements that could form a foresight programme for statistical offices. Originality/value Statistical offices and foresight have been worlds apart. The need to engage with each other is a recent and interesting phenomenon.
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Müller, Adrian W., and Jan Oliver Shwarz. "Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight." Foresight 18, no. 1 (March 14, 2016): 76–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2014-0027.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results? Design/methodology/approach – By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study. Findings – The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in. Originality/value – Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.
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Rondon, Danielli, and Adriana Bin. "Corporate Foresight: The Strategy of Looking to The Future in a Research Organization." Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies 13, no. 3 (September 2, 2021): 356–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24023/futurejournal/2175-5825/2021.v13i3.579.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the practice of foresight at a public research organization in Brazil. Theoretical framework – It was used the concept of foresight to research institutes of a public nature, from the perspective of corporate foresight. Design/methodology/approach – A case study was carried out at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA). The type of case study adopted was the single case study, with an emphasis on in-depth understanding of the investigated case. The phenomenon studied was the accumulated experiences and foresight practices within a research organization. Findings – EMBRAPA has a formal structure and processes related to foresight, indicating the importance that the company places in foresight exercises to support decision making. To this end, it has been employing several foresight exercises to assist strategic planning, research agenda definitions and identification of emerging and future technologies. Originality/value – According to the literature, it was possible to understand that public research organizations can also use foresight to establish strategic research priorities to answer national and international trends in S&T (Science and Technology) well as to the development and societal needs.
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Vanatta, Natalie, and Brian David Johnson. "Threatcasting: a framework and process to model future operating environments." Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology 16, no. 1 (October 29, 2018): 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1548512918806385.
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Threatcasting, a new foresight methodology, draws from futures studies and military strategic thinking to provide a novel method to model the future. The methodology fills gaps in existing military futures thinking and provides a process to specify actionable steps as well as progress indicators. Threatcasting also provides an ability to anticipate future threats and develop strategies to reduce the impact of any event. This technical note provides a detailed explanation of the Threatcasting methodology. It provides the reader with its connections to the current body of work within the foresight community and then explains the four phase methodology through the use of a real-life example.
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N. Desai, Pranav. "Technology futures analysis in the Indian biotechnology innovation system." World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development 11, no. 4 (September 30, 2014): 294–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/wjstsd-07-2014-0018.
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Purpose – Technology foresight or technology futures analysis is increasingly being recognised as a tool for planning sustainable development. Similarly, as argued by many, biotechnology could be harnessed for sustainable development. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to map out foresight activities in the Indian biotechnology innovation system. Design/methodology/approach – The present paper has adopted a systemic approach to analyse the foresight activities in the Indian biotechnology sector. An online Delphi survey, including interviews, was conducted for 750 biotech units. Findings – The greatest need of foresight is felt in the biopharma sector, especially in the small- and medium-sized firms. The methodologies used are only pre-foresight in nature and for short-term time horizons. The output preferred is “setting the R&D planning and priorities”. “Assessing socioeconomic and environment impact” is not accorded a high priority. Most of the regulatory agencies do not carry out foresight exercises. Originality/value – The research holds significance for evolving sustainable development policy.
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Dedov, Nikolay P., Elena B. Fantalova, Olga I. Vaganova, Anna V. Lapshova, and Vladimir A. Kuznetsov. "Role of foresight sessions in professional self-development of students." Revista de la Universidad del Zulia 12, no. 35 (November 5, 2021): 504–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.46925//rdluz.35.29.
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The rapid development of innovative technologies and the rapid change in the social environment necessitate the search for tools for the formation of professional competence that meet the modern requirements of training students in vocational educational institutions. Purpose of the article: analysis of the implementation of foresight sessions in the professional self-development of students. Methodology: the article presents the dynamics of student participation in foresight sessions, an increase in the number of students over several years, as well as the results of a survey of participants in foresight sessions to determine the advantages of the method. Results: Conducting foresight sessions expands the possibilities of forming the professional competence of future specialists.
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Miremadi, Tahereh. "Transitional foresight: MLP as the theoretical underpinning of CLA: the case of the water sector of Iran." foresight 23, no. 4 (February 26, 2021): 385–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2020-0043.
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Purpose The paper aims to complement the six pillars analysis with the multi-level perspective to make it more systematic and policy relevant. Design/methodology/approach Take the innovation system foresight as the exemplar; the paper asks if the other systemic approaches to innovation can function as the middle range theory and underpin critical future studies. To answer, the paper combines the six-pillar approach (SPA) with the multilevel perspective (MLP) and builds “transitional foresight”. Then it takes the fourth pillar; transitional causal layered analysis and applies it to a case study: water stress in Iran. The paper concludes noting that in transitional foresight, the borderlines, the players and the orientations of the foresight are clearer than the six-pillar analysis. Findings The SPA and MLP-integrated framework make a powerful research instrument for transitional foresight. Research limitations/implications The paper applied the integrated framework to a case “water system in Iran”. But the framework should be applied in different cases in different countries to test its applicability. Practical implications The suggested framework can be used as a heuristics for the students and researchers who want to engage with the emancipatory perspective of the six-pillar approach and need to have an academic methodology with rigor and granularity. Originality/value The six-pillar approach of Sohail Inayatullah and the multilevel perspective of Geels can combine to make a powerful heuristic for transitional foresight.
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BYSTRIAKOV, Ihor, Dmytro KLYNOVYI, and Nataliia KORZHUNOVA. "FORESIGHT APPROACH TO ORGANIZATION AND FINANCING OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT." Economy of Ukraine 2022, no. 4 (April 25, 2022): 3–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2022.04.003.
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The substantive features of the foresight methodology as a means to implement sustainable economic management are revealed, the basic formats and algorithm for the organization of financing of sustainable economic management on the basis of foresight approach are outlined. Emphasis is placed on the need to update the methodology for managing the sustainable development of economic systems using the foresight approach. Foresight design is identified as an effective tool for proactive management of economic systems, which creates opportunities for the formation of financial and logistical chain of funding the projects that involve natural resources in economic circulation, taking into account key competencies and smart specialization of various spatial entities with the participation of key economic process stakeholders - government, business and population. Creating funds for sustainable development financing is proven expedient, three main formats of their functioning are proposed: budget - focused on the target of professional financial planning of budget expenditures for the future, taking into account foresight strategy; service - related to the target functions of public-private partnership and involvement of business structures and their resources in the implementation of foresight; project - aimed at the formation of balanced, from the standpoint of liquidity, profitability and capital structure of investment proposals, secured, in turn, by income from foresight projects. The structural scheme of step-by-step interaction of economic process stakeholders in the organization of sustainable financing of foresight in a platform format is proposed. The basic stages of financing the foresight project of sustainable development are outlined, including the stage of investment, when the public sector and business structures enter into agreement on partnership in the investment project; the issue stage when a special legal entity SPV with the participation of an independent rating agency and under the supervision of a state regulator issues and sells on the stock market securities secured by future income from the project; the stage of refinancing the project by SPV company for its completion or operation or modernization and settlement with investors and originators on the issued financial obligations, etc.
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Bannikov, Valentyn B. "Foresight as a Strategic Management Tool in the ICT Industry." Business Inform 10, no. 537 (2022): 225–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2022-10-225-230.
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Foresight, as one of the most effective tools of strategic management, logically fits into the system of strategizing, which determines the relevance and actuality of the presented study. The desire to exchange traditions and management practices, along with consideration of scale, also contribute to the development of strategic management, in particular, foresight management. The purpose of the publication is to identify the essence of the available foresight studies and the possibilities of introducing their results in practice, in particular at the enterprises of the ICT industry. To achieve the purpose, general and special methods were used, such as methods of system analysis, analysis and synthesis, empirical methods of comparison and generalization, case method. The task is set as follows: studying the practice of application of foresight methodology in the ICT industry. The article considers the content and features of foresight as a tool of strategic management of enterprise development used to ensure their competitiveness. The purpose of the practical application of foresight is the implementation of strategic long-term forecasting, which is formed on the basis of expert opinions, analyses of factors, identification of stakeholders, displaying alternative trends in the development of enterprise, allowing to form development scenarios and implement the chosen strategy. Its main advantage consists in the maintenance of the provision of competitive advantages for a long time. Standard methods can also be used when conducting a foresight, the best practices and achievements of other enterprises can be implemented as well. The main steps of foresight management are substantiated. The efficiency and prospects of its application are determined. The positive and negative aspects of the application of foresight methodology in the enterprises’ projects were analyzed. The conclusions and results of the article can be of advantage in the educational-scientific process of the economic faculties of higher educational institutions. It is expedient to transfer them for practical use in the management of enterprises in order to increase their efficiency on an innovative basis.
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Muzykina, Yelena V. "Islamic Religious Education in Kazakhstan: Applying Futures Studies to Skyrocket the Reform." World Futures Review 14, no. 2-4 (June 2022): 93–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/19467567221091440.
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Futures studies and foresight are new disciplines for Central Asia. Their methodology is making the first steps in the region. The present paper tests how narrative foresight can be applied in the field of religious education reform. For Kazakhstan, Islamic education has become a critical aspect of socio-cultural life. Its present situation requires radical changes, and the seven core questions of narrative foresight methodology help to research the vital dimensions of the problem in the quest for a solution. Going through the history of the issue, the forecast for current trends, identifying critical assumptions, and building alternative futures helps to arrive at the preferred future for Islamic education in Kazakhstan. With a new vision, some practical steps come forward that can guide to that new reality embodied in a new metaphor.
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Kuzminov, Ilya F., Thomas Thurner, and Alexander Chulok. "The technology foresight system of the Russian Federation: a systemic view." foresight 19, no. 3 (June 12, 2017): 291–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2016-0048.
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Purpose This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system. Design/methodology/approach To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution. Findings Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning. Originality/value Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.
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Chernova, L. "PECULIARITIES OF THE METHODOLOGIES FOR MANAGING PROJECTS AND PROGRAMMES TO ENSURE THE INNOVATION PROCESS." Системи управління, навігації та зв’язку. Збірник наукових праць 5, no. 51 (October 30, 2018): 121–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.26906/sunz.2018.5.121.
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At the stage of market transformations in Ukraine, the possibilities for increasing the output of products and services by attracting new resources to the economic turnover become limited. The transition of the economy to the innovative type of economic growth is crucial for economic dynamics. The subject matter of the study is the process of implementing innovations from the innovation infrastructure perspective within the project methodology. The goal of the study is to create the concept of an effective system for servicing the innovation process, taking into account the specifics of implementing the project management methodology. the objectives of the study are to analyze the features of the innovation infrastructure; to consider ways to finance the stages of the innovation process from the project methodology perspective; to consider the possibility of using foresight within project methodologies; to formulate the task of making decisions on the assessment of the innovative potential of the region. The methods of the study included logical generalization, analysis and synthesis, structural analysis. The following results were obtained: the basic elements of the innovation infrastructure as the system of organizational and economic forms and institutional structures were developed and described; the elements of the innovation infrastructure were classified according to different forums. the differentiated approach to financing the stages of the innovation process for various project methodologies (project, programme and portfolio) were suggested for using; the use of foresight for implementing the innovative approach was rationalized, namely as the technology for long-term forecasting; the diagram for coupling the foresight methodology and the project methodology of values creation was constructed; the elements of the decision-making task of assessing the innovative potential of a region built by using the methodology of the programme approach were formalized; this approach can be used by regional and state authorities to assess the degree of impact of one or another factor on the innovative potential of a territory as well as to determine the priority directions of innovative development. Conclusions. Considering the methodology of programme management in the context of foresight, the main results from the implementation of this methodology in production can be seen, and, what is the most important, the use of the foresight methodology takes an enterprise immediately to the fourth level of technological maturity out of the five ones. That means that using the above methodologies, innovations can be developed and implemented. Moreover, maximal benefits of the introduced innovation can be predicted.
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Bui, Hong T. M., Vinh Sum Chau, and Jacqueline Cox. "Managing the survivor syndrome as scenario planning methodology … and it matters!" International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management 68, no. 4 (April 8, 2019): 838–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijppm-05-2018-0202.
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PurposeThe importance of foresight is discussed in relation to why traditional scenario planning methodology is problematic at achieving it. The “survivor syndrome” is borrowed from the human resources literature and presented as a metaphor for foresight to illustrate how better “scenarios” can be achieved by understanding the syndrome better. A practice perspective is given on the use of a seven-theme framework as a method of interviewing survivors. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws from an empirical research that took place during the 2008 global financial crisis to illustrate the richness of the insights that would otherwise not be obtainable through scenario planning methods that do not involve “survivors.” In that research, semi-structured interviews were employed with key personnel at multiple levels of one private and one public organization that had undergone a redundancy process at the time of the crisis to explore its effect on the remaining workforce.FindingsThe “survivor syndrome” itself would be minimized if managers consider the feelings of survivors with more open communication. Survivors in private firms were found generally to experience anxiety, but are more likely to remain more motivated, than their counterparts in the public sector. These detailed insights create more accurate “scenarios” in scenario planning exercises.Originality/valueOrganizational performance can be better enhanced if the survivor syndrome can be better managed. In turn, scenario planning, as a form of organizational foresight, is better practiced through managing the survivor syndrome. Scenario planning methodology has proliferated well in the human resource management literature.
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Janzwood, Scott, and Jinelle Piereder. "“Mainstreaming” foresight program development in the public sector." foresight 21, no. 5 (September 10, 2019): 605–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0093.
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Purpose This paper aims to develop a framework for benchmarking the maturity of public sector foresight programs and outlines strategies that program managers can use to overcome obstacles to foresight program development in government. Design/methodology/approach The public sector foresight benchmarking framework is informed by a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive review of the literature on public sector foresight, as well as three rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted over the course of a collaborative 18-month project with a relatively young department-level foresight program at the government of an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country. The paper frames public sector organizations as “complex adaptive systems” and draws from other government initiatives that require fundamental organizational change, namely, “gender mainstreaming”. Findings Nascent or less mature programs tend to be output-focused and disconnected from the policy cycle, while more mature programs balance outputs and participation as they intervene strategically in the policy cycle. Foresight program development requires that managers simultaneously pursue change at three levels: technical, structural and cultural. Therefore, successful strategies are multi-dimensional, incremental and iterative. Originality/value The paper addresses two important gaps in the literature on public sector foresight programs by comprehensively describing the key attributes of mature and immature public sector foresight programs, and providing flexible, practical strategies for program development. The paper also pushes the boundaries of thinking about foresight by integrating insights from complexity theory and complexity-informed organizational change theory.
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Meissner, Dirk, and Pavel Rudnik. "Creating sustainable impact from Foresight on STI Policy." foresight 19, no. 5 (September 11, 2017): 457–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2016-0021.
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Purpose Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy. Design/methodology/approach The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system. Findings Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures. Originality/value The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.
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Tatar, Merit, Tarmo Kalvet, and Marek Tiits. "Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level." Energies 13, no. 14 (July 9, 2020): 3533. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13143533.
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Smart energy transition efforts at the municipal level are gaining importance and go far beyond implementing single projects. Decarbonising cities involves complex strategic planning and needs system level thinking and changes. This has been increasingly realised at the municipal level, but challenges remain regarding the tools, involvement of stakeholders and on the development of policies. The focus of the research is on the use of participatory foresight for fostering smart energy transition on a municipal level, the key benefits and success factors that participatory foresight brings, and the replicability of this approach. Within the novel Cities4ZERO framework, an overarching methodology for a smart urban decarbonisation transition, guiding cities through the process of developing the most appropriate strategies, plans, projects, as well as looking for the commitment of key local stakeholders for an effective transition–foresight framework, was developed and tested in five pilot cities. Foresight as applied within the Cities4ZERO framework creates a participatory process which brings stakeholders together to achieve unified scenarios, and a common vision for future urban decarbonisation strategies. The methodology is replicable and increases the quality of strategic energy planning by fostering long-term system thinking.