Academic literature on the topic 'Forward contracts'

The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.

Plants and their fungal pathogens both produce reactive oxygen species (ROS). CytotoxicROS act both as stressors and signals in the plant-fungal interaction. In biotrophs, a compatible interaction generates little ROS, but is followed by disease. An incompatible interaction results in a strong oxidative burst by the host, limiting infection. Necrotrophs, in contrast, thrive on dead and dying cells in an oxidant-rich local environment. Rice blast, Magnaportheoryzae, a hemibiotroph, occurs worldwide on rice and related hosts and can decimate enough rice each year to feed sixty million people. Cochliobolusheterostrophus, a necrotroph, causes Southern corn leaf blight (SLB), responsible for a major epidemic in the 1970s. The objectives of our study of ROS signaling and response in these two cereal pathogens were: Confocal imaging of ROS production using genetically encoded redox sensor in two pathosystems over time. Forward genetic screening of HyPer sensor lines in two pathosystems for fungal genes involved in altered ROSphenotypes. RNA-seq for discovery of genes involved in ROS-related stress and signaling in two pathosystems. Revisions to the research plan: Library construction in SLB was limited by low transformation efficiency, compounded by a protoplasting enzyme being unavailable during most of year 3. Thus Objective 2 for SLB re-focused to construction of sensor lines carrying deletion mutations in known or candidate genes involved in ROS response. Imaging on rice proved extremely challenging, so mutant screening and imaging were done with a barley-infecting line, already from the first year. In this project, ROS imaging at unprecedented time and spatial resolution was achieved, using genetically-encoded ratio sensors in both pathogens. This technology is currently in use for a large library of rice blast mutants in the ROS sensor background, and Southern corn leaf blight mutants in final stages of construction. The imaging methods developed here to follow the redox state of plant pathogens in the host tissue should be applicable to fungal pathogens in general. Upon completion of mutant construction for SCLB we hope to achieve our goal of comparison between intracellular ROS status and response in hemibiotroph and necrotroph cereal pathogens.

This study is the latest in a series monitoring the evolution of poverty, based on data gathered by The ESRI in the Living in Ireland Surveys since 1994. These have allowed progress towards achieving the targets set out in the National Anti Poverty Strategy since 1997 to be assessed. The present study provides an updated picture using results from the 2000 round of the Living in Ireland survey. The numbers interviewed in the 2000 Living in Ireland survey were enhanced substantially, to compensate for attrition in the panel survey since it commenced in 1994. Individual interviews were conducted with 8,056 respondents. Relative income poverty lines do not on their own provide a satisfactory measure of exclusion due to lack of resources, but do nonetheless produce important key indicators of medium to long-term background trends. The numbers falling below relative income poverty lines were most often higher in 2000 than in 1997 or 1994. The income gap for those falling below these thresholds also increased. By contrast, the percentage of persons falling below income lines indexed only to prices (rather than average income) since 1994 or 1997 fell sharply, reflecting the pronounced real income growth throughout the distribution between then and 2000. This contrast points to the fundamental factors at work over this highly unusual period: unemployment fell very sharply and substantial real income growth was seen throughout the distribution, including social welfare payments, but these lagged behind income from work and property so social welfare recipients were more likely to fall below thresholds linked to average income. The study shows an increasing probability of falling below key relative income thresholds for single person households, those affected by illness or disability, and for those who are aged 65 or over - many of whom rely on social welfare support. Those in households where the reference person is unemployed still face a relatively high risk of falling below the income thresholds but continue to decline as a proportion of all those below the lines. Women face a higher risk of falling below those lines than men, but this gap was marked among the elderly. The study shows a marked decline in deprivation levels across different household types. As a result consistent poverty, that is the numbers both below relative income poverty lines and experiencing basic deprivation, also declined sharply. Those living in households comprising one adult with children continue to face a particularly high risk of consistent poverty, followed by those in families with two adults and four or more children. The percentage of adults in households below 70 per cent of median income and experiencing basic deprivation was seen to have fallen from 9 per cent in 1997 to about 4 per cent, while the percentage of children in such households fell from 15 per cent to 8 per cent. Women aged 65 or over faced a significantly higher risk of consistent poverty than men of that age. Up to 2000, the set of eight basic deprivation items included in the measure of consistent poverty were unchanged, so it was important to assess whether they were still capturing what would be widely seen as generalised deprivation. Factor analysis suggested that the structuring of deprivation items into the different dimensions has remained remarkably stable over time. Combining low income with the original set of basic deprivation indicators did still appear to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation as a result of prolonged constraints in terms of command over resources, and distinguished from those experiencing other types of deprivation. However, on its own this does not tell the whole story - like purely relative income measures - nor does it necessarily remain the most appropriate set of indicators looking forward. Finally, it is argued that it would now be appropriate to expand the range of monitoring tools to include alternative poverty measures incorporating income and deprivation. Levels of deprivation for some of the items included in the original basic set were so low by 2000 that further progress will be difficult to capture empirically. This represents a remarkable achievement in a short space of time, but poverty is invariably reconstituted in terms of new and emerging social needs in a context of higher societal living standards and expectations. An alternative set of basic deprivation indicators and measure of consistent poverty is presented, which would be more likely to capture key trends over the next number of years. This has implications for the approach adopted in monitoring the National Anti-Poverty Strategy. Monitoring over the period to 2007 should take a broader focus than the consistent poverty measure as constructed to date, with attention also paid to both relative income and to consistent poverty with the amended set of indicators identified here.

El Banco de la República, con el Reporte de Sistemas de Pago, entrega un panorama completo de la infraestructura financiera local, siendo este un producto importante de la labor de seguimiento a dicha infraestructura. Las cifras contenidas en este reporte corresponden al año 2020, período de pandemia durante el cual las medidas de confinamiento para aliviar la tensión sobre el sistema de salud generaron para Colombia, al igual que en la mayoría de los países, una fuerte reducción de la actividad económica y el consumo. Desde el comienzo de la pandemia, la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República adoptó las decisiones necesarias para otorgar al mercado amplia liquidez en pesos y dólares, garantizar la estabilidad de los mercados, proteger el sistema de pagos y preservar la oferta de crédito. El pronunciado crecimiento de los agregados monetarios reflejó la mayor preferencia por liquidez, la cual fue atendida oportunamente por el Banco de la República. Las decisiones adoptadas se realizaron mediante diferentes operaciones, las cuales fueron compensadas y liquidadas en la infraestructura financiera. Después de la introducción, la segunda sección del presente reporte de pagos analiza la evolución y el desempeño de las diferentes infraestructuras financieras. Se destaca que el sistema de pagos de alto valor CUD registró en 2020 un mayor dinamismo que el año anterior, principalmente por el aumento de los depósitos remunerados que en promedio diario realizó la Dirección General de Crédito Público y del Tesoro Nacional (DGCPTN) con el Banco de República, así como una mayor actividad del mercado de simultáneas de deuda pública. Consecuentemente con el crecimiento de la actividad en el CUD, el Depósito Central de Valores (DCV) registró una mayor actividad por el aumento del mercado monetario de deuda pública y por las colocaciones por parte del Gobierno Nacional en el mercado primario. El valor de las operaciones compensadas y liquidadas por intermedio de la Cámara de Riesgo Central de Contraparte (CRCC) continúa creciendo, jalonado principalmente por los contratos non delivery forward (NDF) peso/dólar. Con respecto a la CRCC, es oportuno mencionar que a partir de finales del año pasado esta cámara se encarga de administrar los riesgos y de compensar y liquidar las operaciones del mercado de contado peso/dólar, debido a la fusión con la Cámara de Compensación de Divisas de Colombia (CCDC). Así mismo, a partir del último trimestre del año 2020 la CRCC se encarga de compensar y liquidar el mercado de renta variable, labor que venía desempeñando la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (BVC). En la sección tres se entrega una visión integral de los pagos en el mercado de bienes y servicios, es decir, de las transacciones efectuadas en el circuito de personas naturales y empresas no financieras. Durante la pandemia las transferencias electrónicas inter e intrabancarias, que en su mayoría son originadas por empresas, registraron un incremento tanto en número como en valor de operaciones frente a 2019. Por su parte, los pagos con tarjetas débito y crédito originados principalmente por personas naturales mostraron un comportamiento decreciente con respecto a 2019. Los pagos realizados con cheques siguen disminuyendo, presentando una tendencia a la baja muy pronunciada en el último año. Como complemento a la información sobre transferencias electrónicas, el reporte incluye en esta sección un sombreado sobre la caracterización de la población con cuenta de ahorro y corriente, empleando los datos de la encuesta del Banco de la República sobre percepción de uso de los instrumentos de pago en 2019. Se incluye también un recuadro sobre la evolución transaccional de una billetera móvil provista por una sociedad especializada en depósitos y pagos electrónicos (Sedpe), mostrando que desde su creación a finales del año 2017 ha incremento en el número de usuarios y el valor de las transacciones, con especial velocidad durante la pandemia. Adicionalmente, se presenta un diagnóstico sobre los efectos de la pandemia en los patrones de pago de la población, fundamentado en datos sobre el uso del efectivo en circulación, sobre los pagos con instrumentos electrónicos, y sobre el consumo y la confianza del consumidor. Se concluye que el desplome en el índice de confianza del consumidor y la caída en el consumo privado dieron lugar a cambios en los patrones de pago de las personas. Las compras con tarjetas de crédito y débito disminuyeron, mientras que los pagos por bienes y servicios mediante transferencia electrónica aumentaron. Estos resultados, junto con el considerable aumento del efectivo en circulación, podrían proveer indicios a favor de un posible atesoramiento del papel moneda con motivo precaución por parte de las personas y de un mayor uso del efectivo como instrumento de pago. Se incluye, además, un recuadro que presenta los principales cambios que se introdujeron en la regulación del sistema de pagos de bajo valor en el país mediante la expedición del Decreto 1692 de diciembre de 2020. La cuarta sección se refiere a las importantes innovaciones y cambios tecnológicos que se han observado en el sistema de pagos al por menor. Se destacan cuatro temas en esta línea. El primero se constituye en un punto clave para la construcción de la infraestructura financiera de pagos inmediatos. Consiste en el diseño e implementación de los llamados esquemas superpuestos, los cuales son un desarrollo tecnológico que permite una comunicación abierta entre los diferentes agentes de la cadena de pagos, logrando una alta interoperabilidad entre diferentes proveedores de servicios de pago. El segundo tema explora los avances en el debate internacional sobre la emisión de moneda digital por parte de los bancos centrales (CBDC por su sigla en inglés), con el fin de entender su posible impacto en el sistema de pagos de bajo valor y en el uso del efectivo. El tercer tema está relacionado con nuevas formas de iniciación de pagos, tales como los códigos QR, la biometría o la tecnología de comunicación de campos cercanos (NCF por su sigla en inglés). Estos cambios, aparentemente pequeños, pueden tener efectos importantes en la experiencia del usuario con el sistema de pagos de bajo valor. El cuarto tema, finalmente, es el crecimiento de los pagos vinculados con la telefonía móvil y el internet. El reporte finaliza en la sección cinco con una reseña de dos trabajos de investigación aplicada realizados en el Banco de la República en el año 2020. El primero analiza el nivel patrimonial de la CRCC, reconociendo el rol relevante que esta infraestructura ha adquirido en la compensación y liquidación de varios mercados financieros en el país. Se exploran los requerimientos de capital para las entidades de contrapartida central establecidos en algunas jurisdicciones, se identifican los riesgos que se busca cubrir desde la perspectiva del servicio que este tipo de entidades ofrece al mercado y aquellos asociados a su actividad corporativa. Se analizan los niveles patrimoniales de la CRCC a partir de lo observado en la regulación de la Unión Europea y se concluye que la CRCC cuenta con un esquema de anillos de seguridad muy similar al observado en la experiencia internacional y que su nivel patrimonial es superior al exigido por la regulación colombiana, siendo suficiente para cubrir otros riesgos. El segundo trabajo de investigación identifica y cuantifica las fuentes que utilizan las entidades participantes en el CUD para cumplir con sus obligaciones diarias contraídas en el mercado financiero local, y con su uso como herramienta de monitoreo de la liquidez intradía en condiciones normales. Leonardo Villar Gómez Gerente General

Banco de la República provides a comprehensive overview of Colombia’s finan¬cial infrastructure in its Payment Systems Report, which is an important product of the work it does to oversee that infrastructure. The figures published in this edition of the report are for the year 2020, a pandemic period in which the con¬tainment measures designed and adopted to alleviate the strain on the health system led to a sharp reduction in economic activity and consumption in Colom¬bia, as was the case in most countries. At the start of the pandemic, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República adopted decisions that were necessary to supply the market with ample liquid¬ity in pesos and US dollars to guarantee market stability, protect the payment system and preserve the supply of credit. The pronounced growth in mone¬tary aggregates reflected an increased preference for liquidity, which Banco de la República addressed at the right time. These decisions were implemented through operations that were cleared and settled via the financial infrastructure. The second section of this report, following the introduction, offers an analysis of how the various financial infrastructures in Colombia have evolved and per¬formed. One of the highlights is the large-value payment system (CUD), which registered more momentum in 2020 than during the previous year, mainly be¬cause of an increase in average daily remunerated deposits made with Banco de la República by the General Directorate of Public Credit and the National Treasury (DGCPTN), as well as more activity in the sell/buy-back market with sovereign debt. Consequently, with more activity in the CUD, the Central Securi¬ties Depository (DCV) experienced an added impetus sparked by an increase in the money market for bonds and securities placed on the primary market by the national government. The value of operations cleared and settled through the Colombian Central Counterparty (CRCC) continues to grow, propelled largely by peso/dollar non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. With respect to the CRCC, it is important to note this clearing house has been in charge of managing risks and clearing and settling operations in the peso/dollar spot market since the end of last year, following its merger with the Foreign Exchange Clearing House of Colombia (CCDC). Since the final quarter of 2020, the CRCC has also been re¬sponsible for clearing and settlement in the equities market, which was former¬ly done by the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC). The third section of this report provides an all-inclusive view of payments in the market for goods and services; namely, transactions carried out by members of the public and non-financial institutions. During the pandemic, inter- and intra-bank electronic funds transfers, which originate mostly with companies, increased in both the number and value of transactions with respect to 2019. However, debit and credit card payments, which are made largely by private citizens, declined compared to 2019. The incidence of payment by check contin¬ue to drop, exhibiting quite a pronounced downward trend during the past last year. To supplement to the information on electronic funds transfers, section three includes a segment (Box 4) characterizing the population with savings and checking accounts, based on data from a survey by Banco de la República con-cerning the perception of the use of payment instruments in 2019. There also is segment (Box 2) on the growth in transactions with a mobile wallet provided by a company specialized in electronic deposits and payments (Sedpe). It shows the number of users and the value of their transactions have increased since the wallet was introduced in late 2017, particularly during the pandemic. In addition, there is a diagnosis of the effects of the pandemic on the payment patterns of the population, based on data related to the use of cash in circu¬lation, payments with electronic instruments, and consumption and consumer confidence. The conclusion is that the collapse in the consumer confidence in¬dex and the drop in private consumption led to changes in the public’s pay¬ment patterns. Credit and debit card purchases were down, while payments for goods and services through electronic funds transfers increased. These findings, coupled with the considerable increase in cash in circulation, might indicate a possible precautionary cash hoarding by individuals and more use of cash as a payment instrument. There is also a segment (in Focus 3) on the major changes introduced in regulations on the retail-value payment system in Colombia, as provided for in Decree 1692 of December 2020. The fourth section of this report refers to the important innovations and tech¬nological changes that have occurred in the retail-value payment system. Four themes are highlighted in this respect. The first is a key point in building the financial infrastructure for instant payments. It involves of the design and im¬plementation of overlay schemes, a technological development that allows the various participants in the payment chain to communicate openly. The result is a high degree of interoperability among the different payment service providers. The second topic explores developments in the international debate on central bank digital currency (CBDC). The purpose is to understand how it could impact the retail-value payment system and the use of cash if it were to be issued. The third topic is related to new forms of payment initiation, such as QR codes, bio¬metrics or near field communication (NFC) technology. These seemingly small changes can have a major impact on the user’s experience with the retail-value payment system. The fourth theme is the growth in payments via mobile tele¬phone and the internet. The report ends in section five with a review of two papers on applied research done at Banco de la República in 2020. The first analyzes the extent of the CRCC’s capital, acknowledging the relevant role this infrastructure has acquired in pro¬viding clearing and settlement services for various financial markets in Colom¬bia. The capital requirements defined for central counterparties in some jurisdic¬tions are explored, and the risks to be hedged are identified from the standpoint of the service these type of institutions offer to the market and those associated with their corporate activity. The CRCC’s capital levels are analyzed in light of what has been observed in the European Union’s regulations, and the conclusion is that the CRCC has a scheme of security rings very similar to those applied internationally and the extent of its capital exceeds what is stipulated in Colombian regulations, being sufficient to hedge other risks. The second study presents an algorithm used to identify and quantify the liquidity sources that CUD’s participants use under normal conditions to meet their daily obligations in the local financial market. This algorithm can be used as a tool to monitor intraday liquidity. Leonardo Villar Gómez Governor

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor