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1
Douglas, Sifuna, Omagwa Dr.Job, and Vincent Mutswenje Dr. "FUNDAMENTAL RISK FACTORS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF INSURANCE FIRMS IN KENYA." International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations 12, no. 1 (2024): 210–28. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13828149.
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<strong>Abstract:</strong> The financial performance of Insurance firms plays a vital role in increasing the sector's market value and leads to the economy's overall growth. There exists substantial empirical literature on fundamental risk factors and the financial performance of commercial banks and microfinance institutions. However, few studies have delved much into the relationship between fundamental risk factors and the financial performance of Insurance firms. The downward financial performance trend of the Insurance firms in Kenya is a cause for concerns among various stakeholders. The financial performance has shown a downward trend from 2011 to 2018 before a little bullish movement in 2019. The study investigates the effect of fundamental risk factors on the financial performance of Insurance firms in Kenya. Operating ratio measured financial performance for the Insurance firms as applied by the Insurance regulatory authority. The study's specific objectives are to determine the effect of inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates on the financial performance of Kenya's insurance firms. The study further establishes the moderating effect of capital adequacy on the relationship between fundamental risk factors and the financial performance of the Insurance firms in Kenya. This study adopts Positivism philosophy and an Explanatory research design. The study the Modern portfolio theory, expectations, and the Liquidity preference theory. The study uses quarterly data obtained from the insurance firms in Kenya and uses STATA software to analyze. Data analysis through Descriptive statistics, Pearson's simple correlation, Time-series regression analysis over a time scope of 10 years, Interest rates have a positive but not statistically significant effect on operating ratio as indicated by the p value (P = 0.081 < 0.05). Furthermore, Inflation rates has positive but statistically insignificant effect on Fundamental risk factors with p value (P = 0.863 < 0.05), exchange rate has a positive statistically significant effect on operating ratio (P = 0.000 < 0.05). rom 2014-2021. The hypothesis was tested at the 0.05 level of significance; findings reveal that Interest rates have a positive but statistically insignificant effect on operating ratio at p value of 0.081. Furthermore, Inflation rates has positive but statistically insignificant effect on Financial performance with p value (P=0.863), exchange rate has a positive statistically significant effect on operating ratio (P = 0.000). Therefore, the research suggests the insurance firms should be keen to quantify and control the effect of foreign exchange gain or loss on their financial performance The firms should also take into account the impact of interest and exchange rates to mitigate the impact of their volatility on financial performance. <strong>Keywords:</strong><em> </em>Fundamental Risk Characteristics, Capital Adequacy, Interest rates, Exchange rates, Inflation rates. <strong>Title:</strong> FUNDAMENTAL RISK FACTORS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF INSURANCE FIRMS IN KENYA <strong>Author:</strong> Douglas Sifuna, Dr.Job Omagwa, Dr. Vincent Mutswenje <strong>International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations </strong> <strong>ISSN 2348-7585 (Online)</strong> <strong>Vol. 12, Issue 1, April 2024 - September 2024</strong> <strong>Page No: 210-228</strong> <strong>Research Publish Journals</strong> <strong>Website: www.researchpublish.com</strong> <strong>Published Date: 23-September-2024</strong> <strong>DOI: </strong><strong>https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13828149</strong> <strong>Paper Download Link (Source)</strong> <strong>https://www.researchpublish.com/papers/fundamental-risk-factors-and-financial-performance-of-insurance-firms-in-kenya</strong>
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Benfenati, Emilio, Daniel Genah, Roberto Verro, and Paulo Mazzatorta. "Chemical Analysis, Distributed Modelling and Risk Indices. Three Fundamental Pillars in Risk Assessment." Scientific World JOURNAL 2 (2002): 1611–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1100/tsw.2002.858.
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The Risk Assessment (RA) of pollutants from contaminated sites and landfills is a major environmental issue in Europe, due to the large number of sites and to the importance of groundwater protection. The high number of contaminants and the lack of knowledge of their environmental properties and their ecotoxicological and toxicological characteristics complicate the problem. Furthermore, this information about the chemicals has to be combined with the data relative to the territory and to the targets. We will describe the problems relative to each topic involved in the process, and we will propose an integrated methodology for coping with these problems, using state-of-the-art approaches in each part of the protocol. This methodology has been applied in several real cases.
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Rezzy, Eko Caraka, Abu Bakar Sakhinah, Tahmid Muhammad, Yasin Hasbi, and Dwi Kurniawan Isma. "Neurocomputing fundamental climate analysis." TELKOMNIKA Telecommunication, Computing, Electronics and Control 17, no. 4 (2019): 1818–27. https://doi.org/10.12928/TELKOMNIKA.v17i4.11788.
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Rainfall is a natural phenomenon that needs to be studied more deeply and interesting to be analyzed. It involves numbers of human activities such as aviation, agriculture, fisheries, and also disaster risk reduction. Moreover, the characteristics of rainfall data follows seasonality, fluctuation, not normally distributed and it makes traditional time series challenging to use. Therefore, neurocomputing model can be used as an alternative to extraction information from rainfall data and give high performance also accuracy. In this paper, we give short preview about SST Anomalies in Manado, Northern Sulawesi and at the same time comparing the performance of rainfall forecasting by using three types of neurocomputing methods such as Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), Feed forward Neural Network (FFNN), and Localized Multi Kernel Support Vector Regression (LMKSVR). In a nutshell, all of neurocomputing methods give highly accurate forecasting as well as reach low MAPE FFNN 1.65%, GRNN 2.65% and LMKSVR 0.28%, respectively.
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Serrano-Monge, Esteban. "Inferences from Portfolio Theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis to the Impact of Social Media on Sovereign Debt: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15, no. 4 (2022): 160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15040160.
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For three countries of similar economic characteristics, I ratify previous studies of the impact of fundamental macroeconomic and foreign exchange variables influencing country risk, as captured by the Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI). I contribute to existing research, first by calculating a proxy of risk I call endogenous risk that analyzes the quarterly variability of economic activity, and second, by calculating a variable of sentiment from Twitter activity. I gauge the impact of both on the country risk metric in addition to variables in existing research about the determinants of country risk. Foreign exchange variables are the most significant determinants of risk for the countries of Colombia and Peru, which actively manage their currency, while Ecuador’s country risk is mostly affected by endogenous risk and macroeconomic fundamentals.
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KOROTKIKH, Vyacheslav V. "Statistical analysis of stable fundamental anomalies in stock pricing on the Russian market." Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 23, no. 1 (2024): 91–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.23.1.91.
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Subject. The article considers stable anomalies in the dynamics of stock prices on the Russian stock market, which are caused by specific characteristics of issuing companies. Objectives. The aim is to perform a cross-sectional analysis of excess returns of stock portfolios reflecting new stable fundamental anomalies of the Russian stock market. Methods. The study employs the data of accounting (financial) statements of issuers. I considered the groups of indicators related to operational efficiency, expectation of slowdown in operational efficiency, threat of insolvency (bankruptcy) of the issuer, and the size of capital investments of issuers. The groups of indicators identified four working hypotheses on consideration of corresponding systematic risk factors in the prices of financial instruments. Analytical procedures were carried out in the RStudio development environment. The sample population covers the period from June 2012 to December 2021. Results. I tested the working hypotheses and formed special portfolios, the excess profitability of which simulates systematic risk factors associated with specific characteristics of issuing companies. The test of risk factors for redundancy, using auxiliary regressions and the Sharpe ratio for various combinations of risk factors, demonstrated that the risk factor associated with operational efficiency of issuers can be considered as redundant, since it is fully explained by other risk factors. The risks of slowing the growth of efficiency and the risk of bankruptcy of the issuer in the Russian stock market are investigated for the first time. Conclusions. The revealed price anomalies contribute to the development of theoretical and empirical prerequisites for factor investment strategies in the Russian stock market. The findings may help investors to increase portfolio strategy’s profitability in the Russian stock market.
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Isles, Anthony R., Catharine A. Winstanley, and Trevor Humby. "Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 374, no. 1766 (2018): 20180128. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0128.
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Our willingness to take risks, our ability to wait or the speed with which to make decisions are central features of our personality. However, it is now recognized that impulsive and risk-taking behaviours are not a unitary construct, and different aspects can be both psychologically and neurally dissociated. The range of neurochemicals and brain systems that govern these behaviours is extensive, and this may be a contributing factor to the phenotypic range seen in the human population. However, this variety can also be pathological as extremes in risk-taking and impulsive behaviours are characteristics of many neuropsychiatric and indeed neurodegenerative disorders. This spans obsessive–compulsive disorder, where behaviour becomes ridged and non-spontaneous, to the nonsensical risk-taking seen in gambling and drug taking. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications'.
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Murrelle, Lenn, Christopher R. E. Coggins, Chris Gennings, et al. "Hypotheses and fundamental study design characteristics for evaluating potential reduced-risk tobacco products. Part I: Heuristic." Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 57, no. 1 (2010): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yrtph.2009.12.002.
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Krenz, Shannon, Anastasios P. Angelopoulos, and Ernst-Arndt Reinecke. "Fundamental Study of the Operational Characteristics of Recombination Catalysts for Hydrogen Risk Mitigation at Low Temperatures." Hydrogen 6, no. 2 (2025): 32. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrogen6020032.
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International projects study the safety aspects of the storage and long-distance transportation of liquid hydrogen at large scales. Catalytic recombiners, which are today key elements of hydrogen risk mitigation in nuclear power plants, could become an efficient safety device to prevent flammable gas mixtures after liquid hydrogen leakages in closed rooms. This study tackles fundamental questions about the operational behavior of typical recombiner catalysts related to the conditions of the start-up and the termination of the catalytic reaction. For this purpose, small-scale catalyst sheets with coatings containing either platinum or palladium as active materials were exposed to gas mixtures of air and hydrogen of up to 4 vol.% at temperatures between −50 °C and 20 °C. Both platinum and palladium showed variation to performance and had stochastic results. Overall, the initialized platinum catalyst was better than the palladium. The experimental results show that the transfer of the recombiner technology from its current application is not easily possible.
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Li, Jing Rong, and Chun Juan Fu. "Research on Statistic Characteristics of Fluctuations in China Stock Market." Advanced Materials Research 433-440 (January 2012): 5975–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.433-440.5975.
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It is well known that the psychology of market participants have important influences on stock market price trend, but information on this level is far from detail for market participants. When facing different stocks to determine their investment configurations, market participants join the irrational behavior on considerations of stock market price trend; will surely help him choose to invest better or more effective risk management. As the start of a new exploratory study, the paper based on statistic regression model as the main tools, selected several plates with significant fundamental differences in Chinese security market as research object, concentrates on exploration the effect of p/e ratio and fluidity indexes on market participants psychology, at the same time inspects if these effects exist plate differences. The method is also applicable to other fundamental factors.
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DasGupta, Ranjan, and Rashmi Singh. "Antecedents of Firm’s Risk-play – A Structural Equation Modeling Approach in an Emerging Market Context." Australasian Business, Accounting & Finance Journal 15, no. 2 (2021): 56–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v15i2.5.
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Firm-risk and managerial risk-taking though distinct are used interchangeably in empirical literature. Here, we identify these two distinctly by examining different proxies for them. We use income stream uncertainty and accounting beta to proxy firm-risk, and market risk and capital intensity ratio represent managerial risk-taking. Once defined, our objective is to find the antecedents of both these by using the most advanced structural equation modelling (SEM) approach from created constructs of performance, psychological, corporate governance, shareholding patterns, fundamental valuation and firm’s characteristics drivers. We formulate seven hypotheses based on empirical literature representing these constructs. We use data of 269 Indian firms for 18 (1999-2017) years to run SEM and then analyse our results individually and combinedly. SEM is used here to test the unidimensionality of the seven constructs (consisting of 19 drivers) and to analyze these drivers (i.e. antecedents) influence on firm-risk and managerial risk-taking i.e. firm’s risk-play. Results prove that present firm-performance, corporate governance drivers, promoters’ shareholding and firm’s characteristics are driving firm’s risk-play. However, fundamental valuation drivers have no role to play in influencing income stream uncertainty, systematic operating risks and managerial risk-attitudes. Psychological drivers and foreign shareholdings act only as a catalyst of firm-risk.
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Dasgupta, Ranjan, and Rashmi Singh. "Antecedents of Firm’s Risk-play – A Structural Equation Modeling Approach in an Emerging Market Context." Australasian Business, Accounting and Finance Journal 15, no. 3 (2021): 67–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.14453/aabfj.v15i3.5.
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Firm-risk and managerial risk-taking though distinct are used interchangeably in empirical literature. Here, we identify these two distinctly by examining different proxies for them. We use income stream uncertainty and accounting beta to proxy firm-risk, and market risk and capital intensity ratio represent managerial risk-taking. Once defined, our objective is to find the antecedents of both these by using the most advanced structural equation modelling (SEM) approach from created constructs of performance, psychological, corporate governance, shareholding patterns, fundamental valuation and firm’s characteristics drivers. We formulate seven hypotheses based on empirical literature representing these constructs. We use data of 269 Indian firms for 18 (1999-2017) years to run SEM and then analyse our results individually and combinedly. SEM is used here to test the unidimensionality of the seven constructs (consisting of 19 drivers) and to analyze these drivers (i.e. antecedents) influence on firm-risk and managerial risk-taking i.e. firm’s risk-play. Results prove that present firm-performance, corporate governance drivers, promoters’ shareholding and firm’s characteristics are driving firm’s risk-play. However, fundamental valuation drivers have no role to play in influencing income stream uncertainty, systematic operating risks and managerial risk-attitudes. Psychological drivers and foreign shareholdings act only as a catalyst of firm-risk.
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Al Rahahleh, Naseem, M. Ishaq Bhatti, and Faridah Najuna Misman. "Developments in Risk Management in Islamic Finance: A Review." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 12, no. 1 (2019): 37. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010037.
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The purpose of this study is to review recent developments pertaining to risk management in Islamic banking and finance literature. The study explores the fundamental features of risks associated with Islamic banks (IBs) as compared to those associated with conventional banks (CBs) in order to determine the extent to which IBs engage in effective risk mitigation. The study includes a consideration of the major studies in which the fundamental features of Islamic banks and finance (IBF) and the main characteristics of risk management in IBs are analyzed in comparison with those of CBs. Specifically, these two kinds of banks are compared in relation to the types of risks faced, the characteristics of those risks, and the nature and extent of exposure to those risks. A tabular methodology approach is used in concert with a comparative literature review approach for the analysis. The results show that there is weak support for Shariah-based product development due to the lack of risk mitigation expertise in IBs. The conclusion presented is that in comparison with CBs, IBs are more risk-sensitive due to the nature of their products, contract structure, legal costing, governance practices, and liquidity infrastructure. Furthermore, the determinants of the credit risk of Islamic banks in Malaysia (MIBs) are examined. Overall, bank capital and financing expansion have a significant negative impact on the credit risk level of IBs in Malaysia.
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Guan, Yifan. "Research on Short-Circuit Failure Characteristics of SiC MOSFETs." Theoretical and Natural Science 79, no. 1 (2025): 48–53. https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/2025.19938.
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SiC MOSFETs face short-circuit issues in practical applications. When a short circuit occurs in a SiC MOSFET, the high current density causes rapid heat generation, leading to a short short-circuit withstand time. This, in turn, increases the risk of device damage or even the burnout of the entire electrical equipment. To ensure the safe and reliable operation of SiC MOSFETs in electrical systems, research on their fundamental characteristics, short-circuit behavior, and protective driving mechanisms is crucial. This paper investigates two short-circuit failure modes and the factors influencing them
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Bimbinov, Arseniy A. "Criminal-legal characteristics of putting at risk of HIV infection." Law Нerald of Dagestan State University 43, no. 3 (2022): 130–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.21779/2224-0241-2022-43-3-130-138.
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The article is devoted to the criminal-legal characteristics of the crime provided for in part 1 of Article 122 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The socio-legal basis for the introduction of criminal liability for putting at risk of HIV infection has been established. Based on the analysis of the current legislation, materials of judicial and investigative practice, legal and medical documentary sources, taking into account the fundamental categories of criminal law, the characteristics of the object, the objective side, the subjective side and the subject of the crime are determined. In addition, it was concluded that criminal liability of an HIV-positive person with an undetectable viral load under part 1 of Article 122 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation is impossible, since such a person is not able to transmit the disease to another person. The same conclusion should be followed when deciding on the criminal liability of a person who correctly used proven means of preventing HIV infection (condoms, pre-contact prophylaxis). It is determined that the deliberate putting at risk of infection with HIV infection does not imply any probability of infection, but only situations in which the threat of transmission of infection will be real in a specific individual situation. Such situations, as a rule, occur in cases when infection does not occur only as a result of timely measures taken by the victim, medical workers or other persons aimed at preventing HIV infection, or as a result of other circumstances beyond the control of the will of the perpetrator.
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Romero, Ximena Carolina, Uriel Montserrat, Alexandra Porras-Ramírez, et al. "Epidemiological characteristics of hypertensive disorders during pregnancy in a high-risk population." Revista Brasileira de Saúde Materno Infantil 22, no. 3 (2022): 497–505. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1806-9304202200030004.
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Abstract Objectives: the aim is to determine the prevalence of hypertensive disorders and to describe the sociodemographic aspects and risk factors for preeclampsia, gestational hypertension and intrauterine growth restriction. Methods: a descriptive cross-sectional study. Maternal characteristics, history from the first prenatal visit and outcomes were obtained. The prevalence and percentages were calculated and described. Results: the prevalence of hypertensive disorders was 12.7%, preeclampsia was 8.0%, followed by gestational hypertension at 4.7%. Of the preeclampsia, 54.8% were severe and 11.9% were of early onset. Moreover, 56.5% of the severe preeclampsia had preterm deliveries. IUGR had a prevalence of 5.3%. Based on maternal history, the most relevant risk factors were a family and personal history of preeclampsia and IUGR. Conclusions: we found a considerable prevalence of preeclampsia with a high percentage of preterm deliveries, associated with varying severity. This data helps health professionals to be aware of the risk factors that can be followed up for preventing complications. The determination of the risk of developing a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy is fundamental to encouraging proper counseling and care for these women through gestation.
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Amri, Adil El, Rachid Boutti, Salah Oulfarsi, Florence Rodhain, and Brahim Bouzahir. "Carbon financial markets underlying climate risk management, pricing and forecasting: Fundamental analysis." Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 4, no. 4 (2020): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/fmir.4(4).31-44.2020.
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Climate Change (CC) is a major issue of our century. Controlling the constraints of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through transformation into opportunities, in an organization to increase industrial production, has become a necessity. The main reason for this adoption was the effectiveness of energy management and responsible linkages that are being developed to determine the issues and opportunities of carbon finance for organizations. Through analysis of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), this article presents and demonstrates a variety of determinants of CO2 prices (EUA) to be used in econometric techniques. This paper details the main carbon price drivers related to institutional decisions, energy prices, and weather events. Our study focuses on price changes in the EUA, being the most liquid carbon asset. In this regard, we highlighted the daily spot price of the EUA to highlight the daily changes affecting this price, given the high volatility in this Carbon financial market. The treatments of the determinants of CO2 prices (EUA) can be used to analyze the evolving and expanding Carbon financial markets sphere. It features stylized facts about Carbon financial markets from an economics and management perspective, as well as covering key aspects of pricing strategies (institutional decisions, energy prices, and extreme weather events), risk, and portfolio management. Aimed at those with fundamental analysis, the CO2 prices within the framework of the EU ETS depend on several determinants. This paper constitutes an introduction to emission trading and an overview of the regulations governing Carbon financial markets. First, we detail the price changes in the EUA and primary energy prices. Second, we introduce the main characteristics of emissions trading, be it in terms of spatial and temporal limits, Clean Dark Spread, Clean Spark Spread, and Switch Price. Third, we provide a descriptive analysis of atmospheric variables, structural variations, and the Subprime crisis and their impacts on the price development of EU CO2 allowances. Keywords: Fundamental analysis, European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Determinants of CO2 prices (EUA), Climate risk management.
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Ruano, Gualberto. "Fundamental Considerations for GeneticallyGuided Pain Management with Opioids Based on CYP2D6 and OPRM1 Polymorphisms." January 2018 1, no. 21;1 (2018): E611—E621. http://dx.doi.org/10.36076/ppj.2018.6.e611.
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Background: A major challenge for effective pharmacotherapy in pain management is to provide the drug best suited to the patient’s innate characteristics. Objective: The article illustrates pharmacogenetic principles to optimize treatments for patients and increase the likelihood of pain relief without dependence. Genetic variances are particularly relevant to opioid drugs used in pain control, and can now be harvested for predictive clinical decision support. Study Design: Clinically actionable polymorphisms in CYP2D6 (cytochrome p450 2D6) and OPRM1 (μ1 opioid receptor), the most important gene coding, respectively, for a metabolizing enzyme and receptor for opioids are reviewed, and functional effects described. Methods: Risk of dysfunction is calculated from the frequency of the alleles with null function for CYP2D6, and from the low function polymorphism for OPRM1. Integration of genetic variability was performed for 9 combinatorial scenarios for CYP2D6 and OPRM1. Each combination was quantified in frequency and classified for clinical impact. A rational and pharmacological basis for personalized pain management based on pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling is extracted from the frequency of the combinations. Results: Patients can be classified in 3 broad risk categories for opioid side effects and dependence. Patients at high-risk with dysfunctional CYP2D6 or OPRM1 account for ~14% of the population and are best managed with non-opioids. Patients at medium risk with subnormal CYP2D6 or OPRM1 account for ~48% of the population and can be managed with dose monitoring. Patients at low risk with functional CYP2D6 and OPRM1 account for ~38% of the population and should be availed to opioid therapy. Limitations: Heuristic clinical decision support considerations are not validated yet by deployment in large clinical practices. Environmental modifiers such as other drugs and dietary supplements interact with innate characteristics to modify the genetic predictions. Conclusion: Through clinical decision support interpreting the genotyping data, drug choices and doses can then be tailored to provide safe and effective therapy for individual patients. This precision affords personalized medicine to be practiced in pain treatment. Genetic factors could help determine why some patients seem more vulnerable than others to opioid side effects and dependence. Key words: Pain management, opioids, CYP2D6, OPRM1, clinical decision support, pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, pharmacogenetics, combinatorial genotypes
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Nagata, Makoto, Masuhiro Beppu, Hiroyoshi Ichino, and Ryo Matsuzawa. "A fundamental investigation of reinforced concrete beams subjected to close-in explosion." International Journal of Protective Structures 9, no. 2 (2017): 174–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2041419617716483.
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This study investigates a reinforced concrete beam subjected to a close-in explosion. In a series of tests, the scaled distance was varied from 0.045 m/kg1/3 (contact) to 0.30 m/kg1/3. The measurement parameters were failure state, pressure distribution, residual displacement at the center of the beam, and reaction force. The experimental results showed that the pressure waveform closer to the center of the reinforced concrete beam had considerable peak pressure and a sharp rise-time. Moreover, the loading duration at the ends of the beam was increased as compared to that at the center. The intensity of the local failure region and the residual displacement at the center of the beam increased with decrease in the scaled distance. Referring to previous studies on failure prediction of a reinforced concrete slab and beams subjected to close-in explosion, their prediction methods for local failure were compared to test results. Numerical simulations were performed to investigate failure characteristics of the reinforced concrete beam. The numerical results demonstrated that the peak pressure and impulse in the central part were considerably high as the scaled distance decreased. The numerical simulations effectively reproduced failure characteristics of the reinforced concrete beam.
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Santria, K. A., and Sivaranjani G. "Acoustic Characteristics of Cry in Infants with Hyperbilirubinemia - A Preliminary Study." International Journal of Health Sciences and Research 14, no. 8 (2024): 302–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.52403/ijhsr.20240834.
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Objective: The study delves into the use of infant cry as a powerful tool for understanding infants' physiological neurological and emotional states. Its primary objective is to compare the acoustic characteristics of cries in Healthy full-term infants and full-term infants with Hyperbilirubinemia. Materials and method:A total of 30 infants took part in the study, with 15 being full-term infants with Hyperbilirubinemia and 15 Healthy full-term infants. Cry samples were recorded and meticulously analyzed using PRAAT software to measure Fundamental frequency measures, Frequency perturbation measures, amplitude perturbation measures, Noise-related measures, and Formants (F1, F2, F3). Statistical analysis: Using SPSS Version 23.0 independent t was used to analyse the cries between healthy infants and infants with Hyperbilirubinemia Results:The findings revealed that significant differences were observed in the acoustic characteristics of the infant cry fundamental frequency F0 and formants (F1, F2, F3) between infants with hyperbilirubinemia and Healthy infants Conclusion: The infants with Hyperbilirubinemia exhibited higher average values in F0, jitter, shimmer, F1, F2, and F3 compared to Healthy full-term and significant difference(p<0.05) was observed in mean, minimum and maximum F0 This result indicates that the higher Fo, jitter, shimmer and Formants are related with high risk factors in infants. Key words: Acoustic analysis, infant cry, fundamental frequency, formants. Hyperbilirubinemia.
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Espindola, Sayra, Juan L. Parra, and Ella Vázquez-Domínguez. "Fundamental niche unfilling and potential invasion risk of the slider turtle Trachemys scripta." PeerJ 7 (October 17, 2019): e7923. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7923.
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Background How species colonize new environments is still a fundamental question in ecology and evolution, assessable by evaluating range characteristics of invasive species. Here we propose a model approach to evaluate environmental conditions and species features to predict niche changes in non-equilibrium contexts. It incorporates potentially range-limiting processes (fundamental niche), hence allowing for better predictions of range shifts, differentiation of analog and non-analog conditions between the native and non-native (invaded) ranges, and identification of environmental conditions not currently available but likely in the future. We apply our approach with the worldwide invasive slider-turtle Trachemys scripta. Methods We estimated the native and non-native realized niches of T. scripta and built its fundamental niche based on key features of the turtle’s temperature physiological tolerance limits and survival-associated factors. We next estimated response functions adjusted to the physiological predictor variables and estimated habitat suitability values, followed by a comprehensive set of analyses and simulations to compare the environmental conditions occupied by T. scripta (at its native and non-native ranges). Results Climatic space analysis showed that the T. scripta’s non-native realized niche is 28.6% greater than the native one. Response curves showed that it does not use its entire range of temperature tolerances (density curves for native: 5.3–23.7 °C and non-native: 1.7–28.4 °C ranges). Whether considering the mean temperature of the warmest or the coldest quarter, it occupies a wider range of temperatures along its non-native distribution. Results of the response curves for worldwide (global) and across Mexico (regional) comparisons showed it occupies analog and non-analog conditions between its native and invaded ranges, exhibiting also unoccupied suitable climatic conditions. Discussion We demonstrate that T. scripta occupies a wider subset of its fundamental niche along its non-native range (within its physiological tolerances), revealing that the species observed niche shift corresponds to a different subset of its fundamental niche (niche unfilling). We also identified suitable environmental conditions, globally and regionally, where the slider turtle could potentially invade. Our approach allows to accurately predict niche changes in novel or non-equilibrium contexts, which can improve our understanding about ecological aspects and geographic range boundaries in current and potential invasions.
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Yao, Zhi Tong, Wen Yi Yuan, Zheng Miao Xie, and Jun Hong Tang. "Non-Metallic Materials from Waste Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs): Characteristics, Environmental Risk and Recycling." Applied Mechanics and Materials 768 (June 2015): 576–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.768.576.
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Printed circuit boards (PCBs) are the typical and fundamental components of almost all electric and electronic equipments. The mechanical and physical treatment of PCBs generates a large amount of non-metallic materials and thus there is an urgent need to develop alternative treatment methods for them. In this study, the characteristics and environmental risk of non-metallic materials were analyzed. The current recycling methods were investigated as well. The results showed that their chemical components were distinct for the glass fiber/epoxy laminated boards and paper/phenolic laminated boards. The presence of bromine, chlorine, copper, chromium and lead would pose a threat to the environment during its recycling. The current recycling methods included landfill, preparing composites and building materials, pyrolysis and combustion. These methods had their own distinct advantages and disadvantages. The comparative analysis indicated that preparing composites may be an alternative recycling method. Molten salt oxidation (MSO) technology is prospective and need be further studied.
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Kong, Xiangrui, Yuexia Sun, Louise B. Weschler, and Jan Sundell. "Dampness problems in Tianjin dwellings: A cross-sectional study of associations with building characteristics and lifestyles." Indoor and Built Environment 28, no. 1 (2018): 132–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1420326x18756169.
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This study investigated the association of building characteristics and occupant behaviours with building dampness indicators. Data were from a cross-sectional study in urban Tianjin and rural Cangzhou, China, from 2013 to 2014. We studied two fundamental types of Chinese dwellings: bungalows typical of rural locales and apartments in low- and high-rise buildings typical of urban settings. Occupants of bungalows reported more dampness indicators than apartment dwellers. Risk factors for one or more dampness indicators included natural ventilation without fans, older dwellings and coal stove or Kang heating system (a brick bed installed in the bedroom for heating and sleeping). All these factors were typical of bungalows, which generally used older building technologies including non-insulated external walls, wooden frame windows, electric fans for cooling and no exhaust fan ventilation. Occupant behaviours that decreased the risk for dampness indicators included frequent window opening and daily cleaning, regardless of the type of dwelling. Indoor dampness was highly correlated with mouldy and humid odour, and paradoxically (although not a new finding) with the perception of air dryness.
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Chestnov, Il'ya. "Secure in «risk society»." Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia 2020, no. 2 (2020): 65–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.35750/2071-8284-2020-2-65-71.
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This article is about secure issues. Secure as the object of research is considered in the historical and socio-cultural context. Theoretical representation and secure issues in “risk society” is the object of research. The post-classical methodology used by the author assumes the analysis of security in the historical and socio-cultural context. This context is a post-modern society characterized by risk and uncertainty. In this regard, the author suggests reviewing the established ideas about security. Security includes two dimensions – objective and mental (mental, subjective), which complement each other. In this case, security is the idea of the security of the individual, the state, and society constructed by the authorities. Constructability and relativity of security are its most important characteristics in the «risk society». Today, security is one of the fundamental human rights. The content of security as a human right is also a measure of freedom. This right is guaranteed by security measures developed and implemented by the state and civil society. Such measures are aimed at the person who may pose a security threat, and the protected object. These measures are historically variable and relative to the threats that appear to be most relevant.
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Yim, Hui-Rang, Hyun Ju Yun, and Jee Hye Lee. "An Investigation on Korean Adolescents’ Dietary Consumption: Focused on Sociodemographic Characteristics, Physical Health, and Mental Health." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 18 (2021): 9773. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18189773.
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The promotion of healthful dietary intake in adolescents is an important public health concern, as obesity is on the rise among adolescents. The current study aimed to determine the association between sociodemographic characteristics and dietary intake (breakfast, vegetables, milk, fruits, fast food, carbohydrate beverages, and caffeine beverages) and to examine the influences of physical and mental health on dietary intake. A nationally representative sample of 187,622 adolescents who attended middle and high schools and participated in the Korean Youth Risk Behavior Survey (2015, 2017, and 2019) was used. The results showed a decrease in breakfast, vegetable, milk, and fruit consumption and an increase in the obesity rate from 2015 to 2019. There was a significant association between dietary intake and gender, economic status, BMI, and academic achievement. Multiple logistic regression analysis results revealed that the consumption of breakfast, vegetables, milk, and fruit were associated with greater odds of having enough sleep. Fast food intake was shown to be a significant risk factor for depression with an odds ratio of 1.204 (95% CI = 1.169–1.239), and carbonated beverage consumption was shown to be a significant risk factor for stress with an odds ratio of 1.042 (95% CI = 1.030–1.054). These results provide fundamental data that can be used to develop an effective nutrition intervention program or nutrition policy for adolescents or school food service programs.
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Evseenkova, E. V. "The Risk Factors of Auto-Destructive Behavior in Adolescents." Bulletin of Kemerovo State University 21, no. 1 (2019): 74–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.21603/2078-8975-2019-21-1-74-86.
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The research features modern domestic and foreign fundamental approaches to self-destructive behavior and suicidal risk. The author adduces the data on the structure of suicidal risk, its affective, cognitive, and behavioral characteristics. The paper also describes the concept of increasing potential risk factors and predicates presented by M. D. Rudd, as well as an analysis of the theory of suicidal barometer developed by K. M. Harris, J. J. Syu, O. D. Lello, Y. L. Chew, C. H. Willcox, and R. H. Ho. It also features situational and personal factors of suicidal risk, both potential and actual. The paper focuses on predictors of the genesis and development of predisposition to auto-destructive behavior in adolescents.The research objective was to study the characteristics of risk factors of autodestructive behavior in adolescents. The sample group included 116 participants, 14–16-year-old students of 9–10 grades. The author described situational and personal risk factors of auto-destructive behavior in adolescents. They revealed a correlation between personal relations with inner circle and neighborhood society, as well as affective, cognitive, and behavioral personality factors of autodestructive risk.
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Cheng, Ping, and Stephen E. Roulac. "International Real Estate Review." International Real Estate Review 10, no. 2 (2007): 23–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.53383/100082.
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This paper examines the relationship between return predictability and REIT characteristics. We build a multifactor model based on a set of firm-specific factors that include (1) Risk factors; (2) Liquidity factors; (3) Expensiveness; (4) Profitability; and (5) Return history. Our model demonstrates the capability of predicting the “winners” and the “losers,” with fairly high consistency. Given the large return differences uncovered by the model, and the fundamental characteristics of the “winners” versus the “losers,” it is unlikely that strong results are artifacts of a biased methodology.
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Zhou, Yan, and Jin Yu Wei. "Risk Analysis and Evacuation Research on Crowded Students for Colleges and Universities' Emergencies." Key Engineering Materials 439-440 (June 2010): 766–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.439-440.766.
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This paper analyzes psychological and behavioral characteristics of the crowd when unexpected events happen, and combined with psychological factors, using methods of safety analysis, from the perspective of people, objects and management, analyzes causes of group accidents. Then, based on analysis above, this paper establishes a risk model, analyzes factors which affect evacuation time and risk of crowded students and finds out fundamental causes. Finally, using methods of safety management and safety education, from three aspects of hardware facilities, emergency evacuation management, and daily management, reasonable and practicable measures and advice are put forward, and are applied combined with an example.
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Yanli, Ye, Wang Tian Mei, and Li Cong. "Analysis of Characteristics of Endometrial Carcinoma in Peri- and Postmenopausal Women with Abnormal Uterine Bleeding." BioMed Research International 2024 (February 24, 2024): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/6509171.
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Objective. To analyze the menstrual characteristics of endometrial carcinoma and investigate whether abnormal uterine bleeding in the perimenopausal period differs from postmenopausal bleeding. Methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 928 cases of endometrial carcinoma in patients admitted from January 2016 to December 2022. We gathered fundamental clinical data and analyzed distinct clinical risk factors between the perimenopausal and postmenopausal groups. Furthermore, we computed the statistical variances in menarche, regular menstrual cycles, and the duration of abnormal uterine bleeding. Results. Perimenopausal patients with endometrial carcinoma exhibit similar factors to postmenopausal patients, especially if they have a history of menstrual cycles lasting more than 30 years, hypertension, abnormal uterine bleeding for over 1 year, and a high risk of endometrial carcinoma. Early intervention for abnormal uterine bleeding during the perimenopausal stage can prevent up to 80% of women from developing endometrial carcinoma. Conclusion. Perimenopause women experiencing abnormal uterine bleeding should be mindful of the risk of endometrial carcinoma, as this awareness can substantially decrease the occurrence of the disease.
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CUTINI, MAURIZIO, ROBERTO DEBOLI, ANGELA CALVO, CHRISTIAN PRETI, MASSIMO BRAMBILLA, and CARLO BISAGLIA. "Ground Soil Input Characteristics Determining Agricultural Tractor Dynamics." Applied Engineering in Agriculture 33, no. 4 (2017): 509–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/aea.11979.
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Abstract. Whole body vibrations are among the risk factors for professional diseases in agricultural operators: it is therefore fundamental to study vibration source dynamics to improve vehicle comfort and safety. This study analyses the forces acting on the tires of one tractor operated in 29 different settings both on a standard “ISO 5008” test track and three terrain surfaces. For each setting, the accelerations acquired at the tractor hubs were reproduced on a four-poster test bench and the vertical displacement of the actuators reproducing the test track was obtained for each surface. Subsequently, the spectra of the twenty-nine replicated ground inputs were analyzed. All of them showed a similar shape in terms of frequency, pointing out that solicitations originating from different agricultural surfaces belonged to a specific range of frequencies. Because of this, a remarkable simplification and standardization can be introduced in the analysis of tractor dynamics, comfort, and material resistance. Keywords: Four-poster test bench, Operator comfort, Safety, Surface profile, Test track, Vibrations.
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Sutarso, Yudi, Larasati Ayu Sekarsari, Ersa Annisatul Hidayati, Hane Andariksa, and Meytita Zafira Putri. "Understanding the attributes of digital wallet customers: Segmentation based on perceived risk during the Covid-19 pandemic." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis 25, no. 2 (2022): 381–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.24914/jeb.v25i2.5676.
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This research emphasizes the importance of digital wallet customer segmentation, mainly based on customer risk perceptions during the Covid-19 pandemic. The fundamental contribution of the study was to explain the concept of perceived risk in a digital wallet, also to confirm risk factors in digital wallets, and identify segments based on perceived risk factors. The respondents are 270 digital wallet users of OVO, Gopay, and Dana obtained in Surabaya, Indonesia, during the Covid-19 pandemic, which was taken using the purposive sampling technique. The multiple analysis data were carried out using factor analysis, cluster analysis, and difference test techniques. An essential finding of this study shows that perceived risk factors consist of security, financial, social, and operational risks. There are three segments based on the perceived risk: low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk. Each segment has different characteristics and managerial implications.
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Rosli, Naida, and Zaidi Mohamad. "AVOIDING VS. ACCEPTING RISK: EVALUATING THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF A MOSQUE CONSTRUCTION IN KUALA LUMPUR." Journal of Architecture, Planning and Construction Management 15, no. 1 (2025): 40–58. https://doi.org/10.31436/japcm.v15i1.913.
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Risk management is a critical component in ensuring the successful delivery of construction projects, especially in the public sector, where resources, regulations, and stakeholder interests must be carefully balanced. This study examines the practical application of the Garis Panduan Pengurusan Risiko Bagi Projek Kerajaan (Guidelines on Risk Management for Government Projects) through a case study of a mosque construction project in Kuala Lumpur, focusing on two fundamental risk response strategies: avoidance and acceptance of risk. This study examines how risk can be identified, classified, and treated effectively during the construction phase. Data was collected through stakeholder workshops and document analysis, leading to the identification of project-specific risks, including design changes, late approvals, and religious considerations such as qibla direction alignment. The findings demonstrate that by applying the JKR guideline, certain risks can be proactively avoided through early planning, while lower-impact risks can be strategically accepted with monitoring. The study also highlights how unique characteristics of public religious buildings require tailored risk mitigation approaches. Ultimately, this research affirms the relevance and adaptability of the JKR (2017) guideline in guiding systematic risk management in government-funded construction projects and provides practical insights into future implementation.
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Mednikov, B. V., V. I. Mednikov, and S. V. Mednikov. "Mechanism of Enterprise Risk Sustenance in Commodity Market." Issues of Risk Analysis 17, no. 5 (2020): 80–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2020-17-5-80-93.
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The article aims to find quantitative characteristics of the mechanism of enterprise risk sustenance from the point of view of rivalry between commodity market participants. Our analysis of publications revealed the root cause of the lack of known enterprise control systems, including the “Industry-4”technology: this is the lack of their activities formalization and the lack of resources’ quantity for such a description. The method of this mechanism and rivalry quantitative description based on previously devised enterprise model and published data on the market participants’ activities; using the enterprise math model, math models of various sizes markets with cyclical declines in consumption created and further vector model of rivalry in the market created. A quantitative definition of risks in the enterprise activities is given; owing to what fundamental expression for the moment of the crisis risk appearance found. The obtained quantitative ratios are necessary, significant, and repeatable for various sizes markets, due to which uncertainties in the enterprises control of various infrastructures reduced.
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Xu, Cheng, Qiangwei Li, Zhaowei Qu, and Sheng Jin. "Predicting Free Flow Speed and Crash Risk of Bicycle Traffic Flow Using Artificial Neural Network Models." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/212050.
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Free flow speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance and has been found to affect the severity of crash risk. However, the previous studies lack analysis and modelling of impact factors on bicycles’ free flow speed. The main focus of this study is to develop multilayer back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) models for the prediction of free flow speed and crash risk on the separated bicycle path. Four different models with considering different combinations of input variables (e.g., path width, traffic condition, bicycle type, and cyclists’ characteristics) were developed. 459 field data samples were collected from eleven bicycle paths in Hangzhou, China, and 70% of total samples were used for training, 15% for validation, and 15% for testing. The results show that considering the input variables of bicycle types and characteristics of cyclists will effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction models. Meanwhile, the parameters of bicycle types have more significant effect on predicting free flow speed of bicycle compared to those of cyclists’ characteristics. The findings could contribute for evaluation, planning, and management of bicycle safety.
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Zhang, Zheming. "Analysis of Periodic and Seasonal Characteristics in Time Series: Taking the Dow Jones Industrial Average as an Example." Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 84, no. 1 (2024): 149–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/84/20240803.
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The objective of this research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) with a focus on identifying cyclical and seasonal patterns observed in long-term time series data. In order to accurately predict future market trends, this research employs a combination of fundamental and advanced forecasting techniques, including mean, naive, snaive, drift, Holt, Holt-Winters, and ARIMA models. Furthermore, the research explores the impact of return ratios on market investment opportunities. Customized portfolio optimization strategies are developed based on the risk profiles of different investors, along with quantitative trading strategies that effectively manage market risks using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The research shows that the price of Dow Jones Industrial Index has a gradual upward trend, and its return rate has a certain periodicity and seasonality. The aim of this research is to provide valuable insights into the fundamental framework of the American stock market, enabling economists, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions.
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Alam, Nafis, Muhammad Bhatti, and James T. F. Wong. "AssessingSukukdefaults using value-at-risk techniques." Managerial Finance 44, no. 6 (2018): 665–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/mf-05-2018-0218.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the default characteristics of Sukuk issues by corporate firms in Malaysia using value-at-risk (VaR) techniques over a period of 16 years from 2000 to 2015 and across nine economic sectors.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs non-parametric and Monte Carlo simulations to estimate Sukuk defaults.FindingsThe authors analyses revealed that the VaR predictions were fairly consistent with the ratings provided by credit rating agencies, despite the limited tradability of Sukuk in the secondary market. The study was able to demonstrate that Sukuk is not riskier than conventional bonds in the Malaysian context.Research limitations/implicationsThe research findings suggested that VaR values will depend on the fundamental value of a firm based on the considerations of market, credit and operational risk. It does not rely on the type of debt instrument, whether a Sukuk or conventional bonds.Practical implicationsThe use of Sukuk along with conventional bonds as debt instruments creates opportunities for investors and bond issuers globally.Originality/valueAlthough Sukuk has generated much interest among financial market players, studies are lacking on how to predict Sukuk defaults and whether Sukuk has the same risk profile compared to conventional bonds.
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Chen, Yufan. "Application of GARCH Model in the Field of Finance." Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 124, no. 1 (2024): 38–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2024.17736.
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This paper reviews the fundamental principles, mathematical formulation, advantages, and disadvantages of the GARCH model and its extensive applications in finance. Initially, this paper introduces the mathematical structure and fundamental properties of the GARCH model and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the model in practical applications. Furthermore, this paper applies the GARCH model in financial market forecasting, risk management, and asset pricing, illustrating these through specific cases. In particular, the GARCH model is employed to forecast the volatility of the electricity and stock markets, demonstrating its efficacy in handling high volatility and time series data. In risk management, the GARCH model assists investors in assessing potential losses and formulating risk management strategies by predicting future volatility. Additionally, the GARCH model and its variants enhance the precision of asset pricing by considering the skewness and kurtosis of the stock market. Furthermore, the current research frontiers and future development trends are also discussed. Research indicates that future enhancements to the GARCH model will primarily concentrate on capturing nonlinear market characteristics, developing multivariate GARCH models, and incorporating long memory characteristics into the model. As blockchain technology develops and cryptocurrency markets expand, it is anticipated that the GARCH model will become increasingly prevalent in these emerging markets. The integration of machine learning and artificial intelligence will further enhance the precision and reliability of the GARCH model, providing more accurate and robust tools for financial market analysis and forecasting.
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Cheng, Hui, Zijun Mai, Yanzhi Li, and Songbai Cheng. "Fundamental experiment study on the fragmentation characteristics of molten lead jet direct contact with water." Nuclear Engineering and Design 386 (January 2022): 111560. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2021.111560.
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Fomin, G. P., I. V. Sukhorukova, D. A. Maksimov, and I. F. Aleshina. "FORMATION OF INDICATORS, CRITERIA, MEASURES AND RISK ASSESSMENT SCALES." SOFT MEASUREMENTS AND COMPUTING 3, no. 52 (2022): 5–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/2618-9976.2022.03.001.
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The article discusses the architecture of the formation of indicators, criteria, measures and risk assessment scales necessary in risk management systems based on the fundamental axioms of management theory and the principles of risk theory to build a risk management structure. As the most effective modeling method, it is proposed to use a hybrid one using the advantages of both formal and informal methods and models in building an adaptive risk management system in enterprises on a bottomup basis. To remove the emerging contradictions of indicative risk indicators, it is proposed to use a multicriteria method of structuring characteristics in evaluation models according to different criteria of objective functions – minimizing time or costs, maximizing sales revenue or profit, which determines the risk of an unmissed opportunity. The structure of the hybrid adaptive model suggests a radical scheme for changing managerial behavior, which consists in the transition from conventional regulation from above to direct regulation of risk factors at the points of their manifestation.
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Guthrie, Graeme. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment." Journal of Economic Literature 44, no. 4 (2006): 925–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.44.4.925.
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The last thirty years have witnessed a fundamental change in the regulation of infrastructure industries. Whereas firms were subject to rate of return regulation and protected from entry in the past, they now face various forms of incentive regulation, competition is actively promoted by many regulators, and both regulators and the firms they regulate must often confront rapid technological progress. This paper surveys the literature on the investment implications of different regulatory schemes, highlighting the relevance of modern investment theory, which puts risk and intertemporal issues, such as the irreversibility of much infrastructure investment, center stage. It discusses the impact on regulated monopolists' investment behavior of key regulatory characteristics, namely the price flexibility allowed by the regulator, the length of the regulatory cycle, and the costs the regulator will allow the firm to recover at future regulatory hearings. It also considers the impact of competition, especially the situation where a vertically integrated firm has its operation of a bottleneck asset regulated, on investment by regulated firms and their competitors.
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Spross, Johan, Håkan Stille, Fredrik Johansson, and Arild Palmstrøm. "Principles of Risk-Based Rock Engineering Design." Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 53, no. 3 (2019): 1129–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00603-019-01962-x.
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Abstract In comparison with other types of construction, the development of rock engineering design codes has been slow. Codes must, however, be developed with relevant discipline-specific characteristics in mind. This paper, therefore, presents a generic design framework for rock engineering. The framework is based on the presumption that rock engineering design must be viewed as decision-making under uncertainty, which makes the design process subject to general risk management principles, as risk is defined as “effect of uncertainties on objectives” (ISO 31000). Thus, rock engineering design codes ultimately need to facilitate design processes that target the risk, to enable design of structures that not only are sufficiently safe and durable and cost-effectively constructed, but also imply safe and healthy work conditions during construction and an acceptably low environmental impact. The presented framework satisfies this fundamental requirement and the authors find codification of its principles to be rather straightforward, as long as the level of detail in the code is governed by a strict application of ISO’s general risk management principles. Further details on methods and practical recommendations can instead be supplemented in separate handbooks and application guidelines.
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Yang, Baozhong, and C. Steve Suh. "On the Characteristics of Bifurcation and Nonlinear Dynamic Response." Journal of Vibration and Acoustics 126, no. 4 (2004): 574–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.1805007.
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Spectral analysis has been widely applied to the detection of bifurcation and the determination of the extent to which dynamic instability and chaotic responses develop. However, because spectral analysis employs stationary sinusoids in representing time-varying signals of inherent nonlinearity, the use of Fourier domain methodologies would inexorably risk misinterpreting the true characteristics and obscuring the underlying physics of the nonlinear system being investigated. The fact that the amplitude and frequency of all the individual spectral component of a nonlinear, nonstationary dynamic response are modulated and coupled in time necessarily implies that, if the inception and transition of a bifurcated state of unstable motion is to be fully characterized, amplitude modulation and frequency modulation need to be temporally decoupled. The fundamental notion of instantaneous frequency defines frequency as the temporal gradient of phase and thus provides a powerful mechanism through which amplitude modulation and frequency modulation can be disassociated. Results of applying instantaneous frequency to the characterization of bifurcation and evolution of instability for a cracked rotor also indicate that instantaneous frequency interprets nonlinear rotary responses with sound physical bases.
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Foufopoulos, Johannes, Yilun Zhao, Kinsey M. Brock, Panayiotis Pafilis, and Efstratios D. Valakos. "Predation Risk, and Not Shelter or Food Availability, as the Main Determinant of Reproduction Investment in Island Lizards." Animals 13, no. 23 (2023): 3689. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani13233689.
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Reproductive investment, including the number of offspring produced, is one of the fundamental characteristics of a species. It is particularly important for island vertebrates, which face a disproportionate number of threats to their survival, because it predicts, among other things, a species’ resilience to environmental disruption. Taxa producing more offspring recover more quickly from environmental perturbations and survive environmental change better. However, ecologists do not understand which primary drivers shape a species’ reproductive investment well. Here, we compare the reproductive efforts of 14 island populations of the Aegean Wall Lizard (Podarcis erhardii), which lives across widely diverging environmental conditions. We test three hypotheses, namely that reproductive investment (measured as clutch size, clutch volume) is (1) positively associated with predation risk [‘Predation Risk Hypothesis’]; (2) positively associated with the presence of reliable vegetation cover that provides shelter [‘Gravid Female Protection Hypothesis’]; and (3) limited by (and hence positively correlated with) food availability [‘Food Limitation Hypothesis’]. Although field data are somewhat consistent with all three hypotheses, statistical analyses provide strong support for the Predation Risk Hypothesis. The results not only shed light on which fundamental forces shape reproductive investment in island vertebrates, but can also help shape conservation priorities.
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KOROTKIKH, Vyacheslav V. "Corporate fraud, inertia and market conditions in explaining the differences in the exchange characteristics of bonds in the Russian market." Finance and Credit 29, no. 12 (2023): 2813–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/fc.29.12.2813.
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Subject. This article deals with the empirical tests of asset pricing models with Russian bonds. Objectives. The article aims to analyze risk factor sensitivities for bond portfolios using asset pricing models with prominent factors and newly proposed risk factors, based on bond market fundamental anomalies, and identify term structure of factor loadings through hidden bond market states corresponding to business cycle stages. Methods. We used the Hidden Markov Model to recover the sequence of bond market states based on spread of ten-year minus three-month government bond yields. Results. The article provides evidence of the significant contribution of the newly proposed risk factors, corresponding with corporate fraud, and momentum factors to the explanatory power of asset pricing models for bond portfolios excess returns. Specifically, we find a strong idiosyncratic momentum effect in the cross-section of Russian bond returns and hence introduce a bond idiosyncratic return momentum factor. We introduce hidden bond market states based on spread of government bond yields and show that proposed market states are statistically and economically significant. We examine the state-dependent explanatory power of the risk factors for test portfolios. Conclusions. The study contributes to the risk estimation accuracy, and presents theoretical framework and empirical evidence of factor-based investing in fixed income instruments. Investors in the Russian bond market should account for bond exposure to the newly proposed risk factors in the risk-adjusted performance analysis of bond portfolios.
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Trifonov, Yu V., and E. A. Fomina. "Development of Risk Assessment Tools for Enterprises." Issues of Risk Analysis 18, no. 5 (2021): 38–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.32686/1812-5220-2021-18-5-38-47.
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Th e purpose of this article is to develop tools for assessing the risks of enterprises, used both to assess the current activities of enterprises and during the implementation of investment proj-ects. It is supposed to be used both as the main risk assessment tool, for example, for small and medium-sized enterprises, and as an additional tool, mainly for large enterprises, for making a preliminary decision on the feasibility of the project. Th e developed tools include a comprehen-sive risk assessment system, which provides a fundamental basis for calculations, and a soft ware product that signifi cantly optimizes the calculations of a complex integral risk indicator. Th e risk assessment system represents individual risks, grouped by 51 risk groups. Making calculations using the developed risk assessment tools involves assigning to each risk the characteristics of assessing the level of infl uence by selecting the characteristic most appropriate to the current level of risk. A standard version of indicators is proposed for each risk and characteristics cor-responding to "high", "elevated", "medium", "moderate" and "low" risk levels. Based on the results of the analysis, a complex integral risk indicator is formed, which is a quantitative risk assessment, which allows you to classify an enterprise into one of three groups: "eff ective enterprise / project", "enterprise / project requiring improvements", "ineffi cient enterprise". To optimize the calcula-tions, the authors have developed a soft ware product that allows for analysis with a signifi cant reduction in the time spent on its implementation. In general, the use of the developed risk as-sessment system and tools makes it possible to signifi cantly optimize the risk assessment process and reduce the costs of analisys.
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AMGHAR, Ahmed, Abdelkader SBAI, and Omar MOUADILI. "Methodological Approach for Classifying the Severity of Natural Risks on Paved Roads: The Case of Northeastern Morocco." European Modern Studies Journal 8, no. 3 (2024): 196–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.59573/emsj.8(3).2024.15.
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Natural hazards are classified according to their severity based on their impact on various human activities (economic, infrastructure, development, etc.…). A natural event only becomes a threat when associated with "Mortgages" measurable in terms of damages, whether material or human losses. Among the natural phenomena of interest in northeastern Morocco, natural hazards threatening paved roads are notable. The natural and human characteristics of the area, as well as the potential interactions among them in terms of exploitation, adaptation, and mobility, are the fundamental drivers of these natural hazards. Consequently, after being field surveyed in a previous phase, an attempt has been made to systematically employ these interconnected character-is tics to assess the natural risk level for each point threatened in northeastern Morocco. This methodology aims to facilitate classifying threatened areas regarding natural risk, guiding interventions based on priority and the criteria set for the planned approach. When implementing protective measures for these areas, protection is tailored to the level of risk threatening the region and the hydrogeomorphological characteristics of the environment.
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Navaneethan, M., K. Premalatha, K. Sowmya, and M. R. Priyadharshini. "Influence of earthquake characteristics on natural frequency and period of soil column for different subsoils in the Chennai region." Disaster Advances 15, no. 12 (2022): 42–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1512da042053.
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An earthquake is one of the critical natural disasters that causes a massive impact on life and property in the areas it occurs. From the past earthquake patterns, the increase in the number of earthquakes in southern peninsular India can be observed. The increasing number of earthquakes is one of the critical reasons for shifting Chennai from zone II (least active) to zone III (moderately active) by the Bureau of Indian Standards. The soil column's natural frequency and time period are the key parameters for seismic design and construction. Furthermore, compared to shear wave velocity, the fundamental period is a key parameter for site amplification in the recent trend because it accounts for both stiffness and depth of soil sediments. In order to determine the fundamental frequency and typical site period, an equivalent linear 1-D ground response analysis was performed in the Chennai region using ProSHAKE 2.0 software. A contour map was created using ArcGISPro software for the study area's fundamental and characteristic site periods. The longer the soil column's site period, the greater the amplification and the greater the seismic threat. Finally, buildings with a natural period of 0.6 - 1 s should be avoided in the southeastern region of the study area because of the resonance.
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Гокоев, А. С. "CONCEPTUAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ECONOMIC CATEGORY "RISK" IN THE FINANCIAL SPHERE." Финансовые Исследования 25, no. 1 (2024): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.54220/finis.1991-0525.2024.82.1.002.
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Введение. Волатильность финансовой сферы является фундаментальным аспектом современного развития банковского сектора, что актуализирует междисциплинарную направленность исследований содержательных и функциональных характеристик экономической категории «риск». Данная статья исследует концептуальные аспекты экономической категории «риск» в контексте финансовой деятельности. Материалы и методы. Материалы исследования включают в себя различные концепции исследования экономической категории «риск». Методология исследования включает набор научных инструментов, характерных для общенаучного метода познания, таких как аналитический и синтетический подходы, индукция и дедукция, а также взаимосвязь логического и исторического подходов, расширенных за счет использования сравнительного анализа при рассмотрении базовых параметров экономической категории «риск». Результаты исследования. В процессе анализа теоретических подходов к исследованию категории «риск» можно выделить три содержательных направления: моноконцепцию, дуальную концепцию и междисциплинарный подход. В рамках моноконцепции риск интерпретируется исключительно как негативный аспект, неотъемлемо сопряженный с убытками для экономических субъектов. В контексте дуальной природы риска последний рассматривается как амбивалентное явление, имеющее факторы и генерации дохода, и финансовых потерь для экономических субъектов. Междисциплинарное направление описывает риск через управленческую призму отличий фактических итогов деятельности экономических субъектов от запланированных, что дает возможность более комплексно рассмотреть специфику и атрибуты финансового риска. Обсуждение и заключение. Финансовые риски характеризуются специфическими атрибутами формирования, эволюционного развития и управления, которые конституируются через взаимодействие субъектнообъектных параметров рисков, каналы распространения, механизмы управления и регулирования, а также последствия финансовых рисков и их корректировку. Кроме того, важную роль в управлении финансовыми рисками играют регуляторные органы, изменяющие факторы финансовых рисков и параметры пруденциального регулирования как на макро-, так и на микроэкономическом уровне функционирования банковского сектора. Abstract Introduction. The volatility of the financial sector represents a fundamental aspect of modern developments in the banking industry, thereby underscoring the need for interdisciplinary approaches in researching the substantive and functional characteristics of the economic category "risk". This article examines the conceptual aspects of the economic category "risk" within the context of financial activities. Materials and Methods. The materials of the study include various concepts of the study of the economic category of risk. The research methodology includes a set of scientific tools characteristic of the general scientific method of cognition, such as analytical and synthetic approaches, induction and deduction, as well as the relationship between logical and historical approaches, expanded through the use of comparative analysis of the consideration of the basic parameters of the economic category "risk". Results. In the process of conducting a comparative analysis of various theoretical concepts related to the study of the economic category "risk", three main conceptual directions are distinguished. The first of them, monoconception, defines risk as an exclusively negative phenomenon that inevitably entails financial losses for economic subjects. In the context of the second approach, risk is seen as an ambivalent phenomenon, including both potentially positive and negative aspects, which is particularly reflected in situations involving market speculation. The third, interdisciplinary concept defines risk as a deviation of real results from the planned ones, while implying the possibility of control and management of this process. This approach contributes to a deeper understanding and analysis of the characteristics and features of the economic category "financial risk". Discussion and Conclusion. Financial risks are characterised by specific attributes of formation, evolutionary development and management, which are constituted through the interaction of subject-object parameters of risks, distribution channels, management and regulation mechanisms, as well as the consequences of financial risks. and risk adjustment. In addition, an important role in the management of financial risks is played by regulators, who change the factors of financial risks and parameters of prudential regulation, both at the macro- and microeconomic levels of the banking sector.
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Shyshka, Іhor, and Sholpan Shalbayeva. "Strategy Selection of Healthcare Sector Development and Risk Management of its Implementation." Economics. Ecology. Socium 7, no. 3 (2023): 77–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/2616-7107/2023.7.3-7.
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Introduction. The topic of this study is the necessity to implement all stages of strategic planning for health sphere development, such as analysis of the internal and external environment, selection of a specific strategy for further development, and identification and management of risks associated with the implementation of the chosen strategy.
 Aim and tasks. The purpose of the study is to justify a comprehensive strategy for health sphere development based on the results of SWOT analysis, the characteristics of its main components, the identification of fundamental and specific risks of its implementation, and the development of their minimization directions.
 Results. The study offers an application of recovery, restructuring, and reengineering strategies based on a SWOT analysis of the health sector in Ukraine. It offers cost management and risk management strategies as additional strategies. This study analyzes the fundamental and specific risks of health sector strategic development based on expert assessments. It determines that socio-political (weighted score of 7.28 points), personnel (7.94 points), and production and financial risks (7.67 points) pose the greatest threat in 2023. In addition, social and political risks tend to increase during the next two years to 7.67 points, personnel risks to 8.12 points, and production and financial risks could decrease to 6.39 points.
 Conclusions. The strategy of functioning of socio-economic system could be chosen under both favorable and unfavorable external and internal conditions; the implementation of the recovery strategy is appropriate for solving the problem of unsatisfactory regulatory and legal support for functioning of industry; restructuring strategy envisages the implementation of organizational, economic, technological and social transformations aimed at improving quality of medical services and managing the assets of medical institutions; the implementation of reengineering strategy creates the necessary prerequisites for a fundamental rethinking of essence, tasks, techniques and methods of marketing activity of medical institutions in general, as well as the development of effective solutions for the formation and implementation of their assortment, communication and service policy in particular.
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Gupta, Sumeet. "FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANAYSIS OF CRUDE OIL PRICES." Journal of Global Economy 17, no. 1 (2021): 3–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1956/jge.v17i1.617.
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The human mind is not as good at processing large amounts of information as we might like. Psychologists have shown that human beings are only able to juggle small numbers of related and often conflicting pieces of information without making judgment errors. As a result, individuals faced with the vast amounts of information available to support investment decisions often find themselves swamped by the enormity of the task; unable to see the wood from the trees. Technical analysis is a field of financial markets research that works to address the above problem by focusing on a single, commonly available, data source that reflects all known information and activity relating to all monetary securities- Price history. Technical analysts argue that as markets are efficient, prices reflect all known information and that they move over time as participants react to new information and changing needs.
 As a result, the technical analysis of these price changes can provide real insight into the market dynamics and be used to develop trade strategies that exhibit superior risk/reward characteristics. While technical analysis approaches have developed significantly over the past few decades, some techniques are far more ancient. While their real origins are anonymous, Japanese candlestick charts have been recorded as being employed in the rice markets as far back as the 1600s. What is particularly interesting is that various of these ancient approaches continue to provide highly effective trading signals when applied to modern markets and securities.
 Crude oil price volatility is in the midst of the largest business risk that oil and gas companies face. This is followed by unstable policy regime, managing costs and risks emerging from technological advancements. The high levels and rapid fluctuations of petroleum prices have become a great concern to individual consumers, firms, policy makers and society. Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time. Hence, to mitigate the negative impacts of price volatility and to predict about the future price movement of crude oil and natural gas we can use technical analysis.
 Technical analysis is the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting price trends. The term “market action” includes the three principal source of action available to the technician-price, volume and open interest. This research paper highlights fundamental factor which affects the Brent price and analysed the factor which are highly correlated with Brent price and on the basis of the results forecasted the Brent price for next five years. Fundamental analysis of Brent oil, price pattern & movement of crude oil has also been carried out using candlestick technical tool.
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Cleaveland, S., M. K. Laurenson, and L. H. Taylor. "Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 356, no. 1411 (2001): 991–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2001.0889.
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Pathogens that can be transmitted between different host species are of fundamental interest and importance from public health, conservation and economic perspectives, yet systematic quantification of these pathogens is lacking. Here, pathogen characteristics, host range and risk factors determining disease emergence were analysed by constructing a database of disease–causing pathogens of humans and domestic mammals. The database consisted of 1415 pathogens causing disease in humans, 616 in livestock and 374 in domestic carnivores. Multihost pathogens were very prevalent among human pathogens (61.6%) and even more so among domestic mammal pathogens (livestock 77.3%, carnivores 90.0%). Pathogens able to infect human, domestic and wildlife hosts contained a similar proportion of disease–causing pathogens for all three host groups. One hundred and ninety–six pathogens were associated with emerging diseases, 175 in humans, 29 in livestock and 12 in domestic carnivores. Across all these groups, helminths and fungi were relatively unlikely to emerge whereas viruses, particularly RNA viruses, were highly likely to emerge. The ability of a pathogen to infect multiple hosts, particularly hosts in other taxonomic orders or wildlife, were also risk factors for emergence in human and livestock pathogens. There is clearly a need to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases in complex multihost communities in order to mitigate disease threats to public health, livestock economies and wildlife.