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Akama, Seiki, Yasunori Nagata, and Chikatoshi Yamada. "Three-Valued Temporal Logic Q t and Future Contingents." Studia Logica 88, no. 2 (February 28, 2008): 215–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11225-008-9102-0.
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Akama, Seiki, Tetsuya Murai, and Yasuo Kudo. "Partial and paraconsistent approaches to future contingents in tense logic." Synthese 193, no. 11 (September 16, 2015): 3639–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0905-z.
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Schoubye, Anders J., and Brian Rabern. "Against the Russellian Open Future." Mind 126, no. 504 (January 23, 2017): 1217–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/mind/fzv189.
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Abstract Todd (2016) proposes an analysis of future-directed sentences, in particular sentences of the form ‘will()’, that is based on the classic Russellian analysis of definite descriptions. Todd’s analysis is supposed to vindicate the claim that the future is metaphysically open while retaining a simple Ockhamist semantics of future contingents and the principles of classical logic, i.e. bivalence and the law of excluded middle. Consequently, an open futurist can straightforwardly retain classical logic without appeal to supervaluations, determinacy operators, or any further controversial semantical or metaphysical complication. In this paper, we will show that this quasi-Russellian analysis of ‘will’ both lacks linguistic motivation and faces a variety of significant problems. In particular, we show that the standard arguments for Russell's treatment of definite descriptions fail to apply to statements of the form ‘will()’.
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Todd, Patrick. "The problem of future contingents: scoping out a solution." Synthese 197, no. 11 (October 9, 2018): 5051–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-018-01959-z.
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Abstract Various philosophers have long since been attracted to the doctrine that future contingent propositions systematically fail to be true—what is sometimes called the doctrine of the open future. However, open futurists have always struggled to articulate how their view interacts with standard principles of classical logic—most notably, with the Law of Excluded Middle (LEM). For consider the following two claims: (a) Trump will be impeached tomorrow; (b) Trump will not be impeached tomorrow. According to the kind of open futurist at issue, both of these claims may well fail to be true. According to many, however, the disjunction of these claims can be represented as p ∨ ~p—that is, as an instance of LEM. In this essay, however, I wish to defend the view that the disjunction these claims cannot be represented as an instance of p ∨ ~p. And this is for the following reason: the latter claim is not, in fact, the strict negation of the former. More particularly, there is an important semantic distinction between the strict negation of the first claim [~(Trump will be impeached tomorrow)] and the latter claim (Trump will not be impeached tomorrow). However, the viability of this approach has been denied by Thomason (Theoria 36:264–281, 1970), and more recently by MacFarlane (Assessment sensitivity: relative truth and its applications, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2013) and Cariani and Santorio (Mind 127:129–165. doi: 10.1093/mind/fzw004, 2017), the latter of whom call the denial of the given semantic distinction “scopelessness”. According to these authors, that is, will is “scopeless” with respect to negation; whereas there is perhaps a syntactic distinction between ‘~Will p’ and ‘Will ~p’, there is no corresponding semantic distinction. And if this is so, the approach in question fails. In this paper, then, I criticize the claim that will is “scopeless” with respect to negation. I argue that will is a so-called “neg-raising” predicate—and that, in this light, we can see that the requisite scope distinctions aren’t missing, but are simply being masked. The result: a under-appreciated solution to the problem of future contingents that sees (a) and (b) as contraries, not contradictories.
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Malone-France, Derek. "Between Hartshorne and Molina: A Whiteheadian Conception of Divine Foreknowledge." Process Studies 39, no. 1 (April 1, 2010): 129–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/44799098.
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Abstract The doctrine of inerrant divine "middle knowledge" of future contingent events, first developed by the sixteenth century Jesuit theologian Luis de Molina, has resurfaced as a prominent position within contemporary debates over divine foreknowledge, creaturely freedom, and the ontological status of possibilities. As yet, the only substantive response to the new Molinism from a process perspectiv has come in a brief section on "Hartshorne and the Challenge of Molinism," in an essay on Hartshorne’s view of "The Logic of Future Contingents" by George W. Shields and Donald W. Viney, in Shields’ edited anthology Process and Analysis. Shields and Viney offer an insightful critique of Molinism. However, their use of Hartshorne’s understanding of possibility presents problems for those, like me, who prefer Whitehead’s more robustly realist notion of eternal objects. Here, I defend Whitehead’s Platonism from the main lines of criticism leveled against it by Hartshorne, while demonstrating that a "thick" conception of the objective content of the possible within the context of the divine understanding need not cross over into a deterministic conception of God’s foreknowledge, à la Molina.
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Bărbat, Boldur E. "DOMINO: Trivalent Logic Semantics in Bivalent Syntax Clothes." International Journal of Computers Communications & Control 2, no. 4 (April 1, 2007): 303. http://dx.doi.org/10.15837/ijccc.2007.3.2362.
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The paper describes a rather general software mechanism developed primarily for decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments (typical application: managing overbooking). DOMINO (Decision-Oriented Mechanism for "IF" as Non-deterministic Operator) is meant to deal with undecidability due to any kind of future contingents. Its description here is self-contained but, since a validation is underway within a much broader undertaking involving agent-oriented software, to impair redundancy, several aspects explained in very recent papers are here abridged. In essence, DOMINO acts as an "IF" with enhanced semantics: it can answer "YES", "NO" or "UNDECIDABLE in the time span given" (it renders control to an exception handler). Despite its trivalent logic semantics, it respects the rigours of structural programming and the syntax of bivalent logic (it is programmed in plain C++ to be applicable to legacy systems too). As for most novel approaches, expectations are high, involving a less algorithmic, less probabilistic, less difficult to understand method to treat undecidability in dynamic and uncertain environments, where postponing decisions means keeping open alternatives (to react better to rapid environment changes).
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Feldhay, Rivka. "Knowledge and Salvation in Jesuit Culture." Science in Context 1, no. 2 (September 1987): 195–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269889700000363.
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The ArgumentIn this paper, I argue that the most significant contribution of the Jesuits to early modern science (via Galileo) consists in the introduction of a new “image of knowledge.”In contradistinction to traditional Scholasticism, this image of knowledge allows for the possibility of a science (i. e. certain knowledge) of hypothetical entities.This problem became crucial in two specific areas. In astronomy, knowledge of mathematical entities of unclear ontological status (like epicycles and eccentrics) was nevertheless proclaimed certain. In theology, God's knowledge of the future acts of man, logically considered as future contingents, was also proclaimed certain. In both cases the concept of certain knowledge of hypothetical entities was problematic and challenged a central premise of the accepted canons of logic, i.e., that the objects of true knowledge (“scientia”) must be real objects.The main argument of this paper is that the practical orientation of the Jesuit cultural milieu enabled Jesuit scientists and theologians to ignore accepted logical considerations and to modify traditional Thomist images of knowledge. Nevertheless, this modification was not so radical as to change the contemporary organization of knowledge. This was due to the peculiar status of the Jesuits within the church establishment, which exposed them to harsh criticism and created a deep need for legitimation. Thus, the limitations of Jesuit scientific culture are accounted for in institutional, rather than in logical terms.
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Morris-Reich, Amos. "Georg Simmel’s Logic of the Future: ‘The Stranger’, Zionism, and ‘Bounded Contingency’." Theory, Culture & Society 36, no. 5 (April 10, 2019): 71–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0263276419839117.
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For reasons that have more to do with the historiographical traditions of modern Jewish history and the history of critical thought than history itself, Georg Simmel – of Jewish descent – is rarely discussed within the frame of modern Jewish history. Bringing the two together as a theoretical contribution to Simmel studies and modern Jewish history alike, this article explores Simmel’s logic of contingency in the context of modern Jewish history. Which forms and types could Jews realistically seek to fulfill from the perspective of Simmel’s thought? Which could they hope to escape and what could they expect from the future? The author suggests that in answering these questions we disclose a peculiar notion of ‘bounded contingency’ embedded in Simmel’s positing of a non-binary, ‘gray area’ between the necessary and the impossible. This hypothesis is tested in several distinct contexts: a letter on Zionism from around 1900; an odd passage on love in the excursus on ‘The Stranger’ (1908); and a letter on individuals of Jewish background in German academia (1906). Simmel’s coherency lies in the ‘realist’ approach he adopts to reality as the domain of the contingently possible. When applied to Jewish history in general and Zionism in particular, this notion not only explains why Zionism is unfeasible but also demystifies its emergence as an attempt to escape the status of stranger in Europe. It also evinces why this Jewish national enterprise inevitably carried within it the seeds of the problem it sought to solve.
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Øhrstrøm, Peter, and David Jakobsen. "William of Ockham on Future Contingency." KronoScope 18, no. 2 (September 18, 2018): 138–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15685241-12341413.
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AbstractIn his philosophy, William of Ockham (1285-1347) offered an important and detailed response to the classical argument from the truth of a statement regarding the future to the necessity (unpreventability) of the statement. In this paper, Ockham’s solution and the possible formalisation of it are discussed in terms of modern tense and modal logic. In particular, the famous branching time formalisation suggested by A. N. Prior (1914-19) is discussed. Weaknesses and problems with this suggestion are pointed out, and an alternative formalisation of Ockham’s solution without the use of branching time is presented.
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Fernandes, Aline, Martin Spring, and Monideepa Tarafdar. "Coordination in temporary organizations." International Journal of Operations & Production Management 38, no. 6 (June 4, 2018): 1340–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijopm-02-2017-0097.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore intra-firm coordination in temporary organizations (TOs). Specifically, it identifies and explains how operational coordination evolves over time in a particular TO: the 2016 Olympic Games Organizing Committee.Design/methodology/approachThis is an immersive case study based on qualitative analysis and longitudinal fieldwork, which allowed the observation of operational coordination in real time. The main sources of data are participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and internal documents of the TO.FindingsThe findings suggest that operational coordination in TOs dealing with multiple and decentralized operations takes place through the combination of both formal and informal coordination mechanisms. Further analysis indicates a contingency logic in using these mechanisms, shaped by the presence of specific coordination challenges in different phases of work. Three main aspects influencing coordination are explored. First, it is suggested that TOs are inherently “hybrid.” That is, they comprise enduring as well as temporary and centralized as well as decentralized elements. These elements change over time. Second, a formal transition phase is explored: “venueization” – a phase between planning and operation in which centralized structural elements and processes are translated to operational units. Third, since TOs present emergence and dynamism, and related challenges across various phases of work, coordination is arguably contingent on the phase of the project.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the findings are limited to a particular empirical context, this paper offers theoretically new insights concerning the hybrid nature of processes in TOs, the contingent use of complementary coordination mechanisms, and the importance of the venueization phase, and provides a basis for future research into operational coordination in TOs.Practical implicationsThe findings can help practitioners understand and identify the challenges embedded in temporary contexts and develop coordination strategies accordingly.Originality/valueThis study explains how operational coordination takes place in TOs enabled by formal and informal mechanisms, which are contingently combined over time through particular coordination strategies.
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Pascucci, Matteo. "Two Temporal Logics of Contingency." Australasian Journal of Logic 12, no. 2 (December 19, 2017): 121. http://dx.doi.org/10.26686/ajl.v12i2.4140.
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This work concerns the use of operators for past and future con-tingency in Priorean temporal logic. We will develop a system namedCt, whose language includes a propositional constant and prove that(i) Ct is complete with respect to a certain class of general frames and(ii) the usual operators for past and future necessity are denable insuch system. Furthermore, we will introduce the extension Ctlin thatcan be interpreted on linear and transitive general frames. The theo-retical result of the current work is that contingency can be treatedas a primitive notion in reasoning about temporal modalities.
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Pabijutaitė, Živilė. "Semantical Interpretations of the Temporal Logic Systems CL and Kb with the Gaps of Traditional Truth-values." Problemos 97 (April 21, 2020): 132–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/problemos.97.11.
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Over the past several decades, in the field of temporal logic there have been created a great number of semantical theories that provide different truth conditions for tensed propositions. In this article we deal with five non-bivalent semantical interpretations of the temporal logic systems CL (Cocchiarella Linear) and Kb (Kripke Branching): 1) Ł3 by J. Łukasiewicz; 2) K3 by S. C. Kleene; 3) Ockhamism by A. Prior; 4) supervaluationism by R. Thomason; 5) relativism by J. MacFarlane. The aim of this article is to present a detailed typology of the five semantical theories based on these criteria: a) the ability to deal with the problem of retrospective evaluation of future contingent propositions; b) the ability to deal with the problem of divine omniscience and free will; c) their relation to the law of excluded middle; d) their relation to other formulas that are intuitively acceptable in an intederministic context. It is argued that the only theory that satisfies all four criteria is the relativism of J. MacFarlane; however, it faces some serious challenges when dealing with the problem of retrospective evaluation of future contingent propositions in the theological context.
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Goss, Lindsay. "Ending and Excess." TDR: The Drama Review 65, no. 4 (December 2021): 51–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1054204321000538.
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In its willingness to expend resources towards the construction of worlds that end, theatre models the possibility of a response to crisis that refuses to make action in the present contingent upon the promise of a future. Three recent works reflect a contemporary metatheatrical preoccupation with this combination of exertion and conclusion, and suggest the need to reimagine conservation and sustainability once we’ve embraced the structuring logic of “the end.”
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Cook, Julia. "Young people’s strategies for coping with parallel imaginings of the future." Time & Society 25, no. 3 (August 1, 2016): 700–717. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0961463x15609829.
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Sociological work has often characterized the contemporary future horizon as a space crowded with risks and contingencies. This view has prompted a number of claims that young adults conceptualize the future predominantly in terms of the choices and plans that they make to mitigate against such concerns. As an extension of this logic, a number of studies have suggested that young adults conceptualize the long-term future extending beyond their own lives separately from their more immediate horizon of planning (Leahy et al., 2010; Toffler, 1974 ). This paper discusses how young adults relate to the long-term and more immediate future concurrently, and in doing so considers the points at which the strategies that they use to cope with contingency in their own lives may intersect with the ways that they approach their fears, hopes and imaginings of the long-term future. The data for this paper are drawn from an interview project in which young adults (aged 18–34) were asked to discuss their own futures, and a general idea of the future. The findings are used to form the beginnings of a typology of the approaches that young adults may adopt when engaging with the future, which is then drawn upon to propose that the ways in which they engage with the long-term future are often related to the strategies that they employ when facing their own futures.
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Mitropoulos, Angela. "The Time of the Contract: Insurance, Contingency, and the Arrangement of Risk." South Atlantic Quarterly 111, no. 4 (October 1, 2012): 763–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00382876-1724174.
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This essay contends that the contractual is a technique for the reinstatement of a specifically capitalist determinism in the midst of uncertain circumstances and in the face of an indefinite future. Taking the indistinction between the time of life and that of work that characterizes post-Fordism and contingent labor as a point of departure, I note that this marks a traversal of the classically contractarian boundary between the temporally circumscribed sale of “one’s own labor” and life construed as property. Yet, rather than follow theories of the biopolitical in positing an ethics of life assumed to be prior to capitalism and that might furnish “natural limits” to it, or those of governmentality, which suggest that the amplified logics of risk and insurance have displaced right and its temporally delimited conditions, I present an analysis of the contractual through a critique of oikonomia (the law of the household). Focusing on the history of debates around insurance, the family wage and slavery, the actuarial and inoculation, I underline Locke’s reworkings of Aristotle, Pascal, and the Thomist transformation of contingency into necessity through the delineation of divine and temporal orders. Locke’s three temporal orders (divine providence, prudential self-management, and the naturalized, heritable properties of servitude) are not only recapitulated as assumption in ostensibly critical theory, but they have also—in the wake of a contested politics of the household that precipitated neoliberalism—been reconstituted as the neocontractualism of infinite and unbreakable contracts, interminable preparedness, and the displacement of capitalist incertitude onto the uninsurable risks of contingent labor.
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NEGRI, Yamina, and Farid ZIDANI. "MODAL LOGIC BETWEEN TRADITIONNAL (ARISTOTLE, IBN SINA) AND CONTEMPORARY APPROACH." RIMAK International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 03, no. 08 (November 1, 2021): 26–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.47832/2717-8293.8-3.3.
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Aristotle founded the science of logic in order to control language source of fallacies and sophistry. He built his syllogistic on two basic principles: non-contradiction and the excluded middle. He distinguished between different types of statements: declarative and non-declarative, only the first type was used in syllogism’s theory, because it is a tool of demonstrative science. He divided them, declarative statement, into two categories: Assertorics, and modals (necessary, possible, contingent, impossible) which he encountered difficulties in his logical analysis, because it is out of frame two valued according to the two principles, such as propositions that occur in the future whose cannot be determined now. This kind of statement was also treated by the Muslims logicians, especially Ibn Sīnā who expanded the modal concept to other field like Temporal modalities (always, sometimes, never), but he could not get out the Aristotelian context. The concept expended in contemporary logic system to include other sort of modality like: epistemological, deontic, tense … This resulted the emergence of contemporary logical systems, (epistemic logic, deontic logic, tense logic), whose approach differs from the traditional one. The propose of the article is to show the difference between the approaches Keywords: Logic; Modality; Epistemological; Deontic, Temporal; Truth; False.
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Tafon, Ralph V. "Taking power to sea: Towards a post-structuralist discourse theoretical critique of marine spatial planning." Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space 36, no. 2 (May 7, 2017): 258–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2399654417707527.
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Responding to calls for a more theoretically driven, post-positivist and radical marine spatial planning research that approaches the policy as a political project, this paper develops a post-structuralist discourse theory approach to critical marine spatial planning. Elaborating radical contingency as an ontological condition of social life, which points to the ineradicability of power and conflict in marine spatial planning social relations, the paper problematizes marine spatial planning as constituting politics, or key practices that attempt to organize human coexistence and thus, conceal this radical contingency. These practices (e.g. ecosystem-based management, participation, planning regulation and the organization of socio-natural spaces), whose outcomes are far from adaptive, consensual or neutral are discussed as sites of ‘politics’ that effectively marginalize particular groups of people and ‘herd’ their participation and ways of knowing toward achieving limited policy outcomes. Drawing on the EU Marine Spatial Planning Directive, the paper further teases out how specific narratives and rhetorical signifiers around ‘integrating’ and ‘balancing’ potentially irreconcilable sustainable development objectives may interpellate particular stakeholders in ways that render them ideologically complicitous in sustaining, rather than challenging, neoliberal logics of managerialism and economic maximization of marine resources. But in tune with the ontological condition of the social as radically contingent, the paper discusses how and why participatory spaces may constitute a potential space of contestation for marginalized voices and thus, reveal the political moment of marine spatial planning. Calls are made for future empirically grounded research that explores how these marine spatial planning practices are lived in both planning and extra-planning settings, and with what implications for marine protection and extant social relations of power in different marine spatial planning contexts.
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Coleman, Diana Murtaugh. "El Sur También Existe: Imagining futures." Cultural Dynamics 31, no. 4 (September 20, 2019): 365–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0921374019860937.
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Guantánamo is infamous as a site of extra-legal detention in the wake of 9/11; more than a single site, it is part of a web of the United States’ militarization operating in the Global South. An area of the military base is now being revitalized as a new camp for climate change–related mass migration events predicted to occur throughout the Caribbean and Latin America. In February 2018, RQ Construction, LLC (Carlsbad, California) won a 23-million-dollar contract to build a “Contingency Mass Migration Complex” at Guantánamo to house migrants and personnel at the military base in a massive tent city. Though less explicitly worded, other large Department of Defense awards for work at Guantánamo point toward extensive infrastructure development as recently as March 2019. The United States’ militarized response to climate-based migration is an extension of the logic through which economic and political refugees are branded criminals or terrorists.
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Afzal, Farman, Shao Yunfei, Danish Junaid, and Muhammad Shehzad Hanif. "Cost-risk contingency framework for managing cost overrun in metropolitan projects: using fuzzy-AHP and simulation." International Journal of Managing Projects in Business 13, no. 5 (May 15, 2020): 1121–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijmpb-07-2019-0175.
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PurposeRisk analysis plays a vital role in controlling and managing cost overruns in complex construction projects, particularly where uncertainty is high. This study attempts to address an important issue of cost overrun that encountered by metropolitan rapid transit projects in relation to the significance of risk involved under high uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachIn order to solve cost overrun problems in metropolitan transit projects and facilitate the decision-makers for effective future budgeting, a cost-risk contingency framework has been designed using fuzzy logic, analytical hierarchy process and Monte Carlo simulation.FindingsInitially, a hierarchical breakdown structure of important complexity-driven risk factors has been conceptualized herein using relative importance index. Later, a proposed cost-risk contingency framework has investigated the expected total construction cost in order to consider the additional budgeted cost required to mitigate the risk consequences for particular project activity. The results of cost-risk analysis imply that poor design issues, an increase in material prices and delays in relocating facilities show higher dependency and increase the risk of cost overrun in metropolitan transit projects.Practical implicationsThe findings and implication for project managers could possibly be achieved by assuming the proposed cost-risk contingency framework under high uncertainty of cost found in this research. Furthermore, this procedure may be used by experts from other engineering domains by replacing and considering the complex relationship between complexity-risk factors.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical contingency model to identify and evaluate the additional risk cost required to compute total construction cost for getting stability in future budgeting.
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Souter, R. A., and J. M. Bowker. "A Note on Nonlinearity Bias and Dichotomous Choice CVM: Implications for Aggregate Benefits Estimation." Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 25, no. 1 (April 1996): 54–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500000071.
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It is a generally known statistical fact that the mean of a nonlinear function of a set of random variables is not equivalent to the function evaluated at the means of the variables. However, in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies a common practice is to calculate an overall mean (or median) by integrating over offer space (numerically or analytically) an estimated logit or probit function in which sample mean values for the concomitant variables are used. We demonstrate this procedure to be incorrect and we statistically test the procedure against the correct method for nonlinear models. Using data resulting in a well-behaved logit model, we reject the hypothesis of congruence between the two means. Such a finding should be considered in future single response dichotomous choice CVM studies, particularly when aggregation is of interest.
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Schumann, Andrew. "On the Origin of Logical Determinism in Babylonia." Logica Universalis 15, no. 3 (August 16, 2021): 331–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11787-021-00282-5.
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AbstractIn this paper, I show that the idea of logical determinism can be traced back from the Old Babylonian period at least. According to this idea, there are some signs (omens) which can explain the appearance of all events. These omens demonstrate the will of gods and their power realized through natural forces. As a result, each event either necessarily appears or necessarily disappears. This idea can be examined as the first version of eternalism – the philosophical belief that each temporal event (including past and future events) is actual. In divination lists in Akkadian presented as codes we can reconstruct Boolean matrices showing that the Babylonians used some logical-algebraic structures in their reasoning. The idea of logical contingency was introduced within a new mood of thinking presented by the Greek prose – historical as well as philosophical narrations. In the Jewish genre ’aggādōt, the logical determinism is supposed to be in opposition to the Greek prose.
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Cao, Jian, Andreas I. Nicolaou, and Somnath Bhattacharya. "A Longitudinal Examination of Enterprise Resource Planning System Post-Implementation Enhancements." Journal of Information Systems 27, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 13–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/isys-50398.
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ABSTRACT Past information systems research on real options suggests that large-scale information technology projects, such as enterprise resource planning systems (ERPS), create various future options for system reconfiguration and extension. Management would decide whether to exercise an option according to future conditions. From the real options lens, we conduct a longitudinal examination of the determinants of post-implementation enhancement decisions for firms that have previously reported ERPS adoptions. We find that proactive ERPS adopters that employ performance-enhancing post-implementation review (PIR) practices and obtain favorable performance outcomes are more likely to make system enhancements. Evidence also shows that management likely makes joint decisions on PIR uses and ERPS enhancements, consistent with the view that managers perform gateway reviews at points where potential enhancement opportunities are present. Moreover, management tends to delay the enhancing decision until after the initial results are in place. Overall, our findings are consistent with the logic of real options, suggesting that managers make heuristic evaluations for general conditions that allow for future contingent investments.
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Östermark, Ralf. "A parallel algorithm for optimizing the capital structure contingent on maximum value at risk." Kybernetes 44, no. 3 (March 2, 2015): 384–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-08-2014-0171.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to measure the financial risk and optimal capital structure of a corporation. Design/methodology/approach – Irregular disjunctive programming problems arising in firm models and risk management can be solved by the techniques presented in the paper. Findings – Parallel processing and mathematical modeling provide a fruitful basis for solving ultra-scale non-convex general disjunctive programming (GDP) problems, where the computational challenge in direct mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) formulations or single processor algorithms would be insurmountable. Research limitations/implications – The test is limited to a single firm in an experimental setting. Repeating the test on large sample of firms in future research will indicate the general validity of Monte-Carlo-based VAR estimation. Practical implications – The authors show that the risk surface of the firm can be approximated by integrated use of accounting logic, corporate finance, mathematical programming, stochastic simulation and parallel processing. Originality/value – Parallel processing has potential to simplify large-scale MINLP and GDP problems with non-convex, multi-modal and discontinuous parameter generating functions and to solve them faster and more reliably than conventional approaches on single processors.
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Wei, Tongyang, and Yong Yang. "Is There A Quick Path For Valuation Of Ecosystem Services?-A Comparative Study In Xiu River, China." E3S Web of Conferences 53 (2018): 03033. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185303033.
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This paper uses the valuation of Xiu River Hydrological Regulating services in Jiangxi province, China as a case study to compare 3 methods to value the ecosystem services, i.e improved contingent valuation method, choice based conjoint analysis and special benefit transfer method. Willingness to pay is estimated by using Logit and Clogit with contrasting controls for non-protests residents. This study discusses the implications of these findings and direction for related future researches into the ecosystem services valuation in China. Appropriate methods should be used for different valuation proposes, rather than blindly using special benefit transfer method just for its convenience. China should construct Ecosystem services value table based on Chinese case studies.
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Heggde, Githa, and Deepak Shyam. "The future of petroleum business at RIL – to stay or to exit." Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 6, no. 4 (November 9, 2016): 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eemcs-03-2016-0044.
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Subject area Subject areas are strategic management and marketing management. Study level/applicability This case can be used in strategic management and marketing management courses for MBA students. Case overview This case discusses the future of petroleum business at Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) – whether to stay or exit. This scenario took place between 2001 and 2008. The volatility in the external environment was beyond their control. Or was it so? This case encapsulates the characteristics of innovative strategy formulation, leading to successful differentiation in a regulated and commoditized industry. This case portrays two significant aspects of business strategy by RIL. First is to comprehend the pioneering strategies formulation and implementation by RIL in the petroleum retailing business. Second is the severe impact of external forces on the company’s current and future prospects and what contingency plans could have been made. Expected learning outcomes This study enables to understand how innovative and differentiation strategies can be successfully applied in a commoditized business; to comprehend the effective application of forward integration and brand extension in a complex, scale-driven industry; and to understand the implication of external threats severely disrupting a growing business. Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes. Subject code CSS 11: Strategy
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Opačak, Marija, and Erda Wang. "Estimating Willingness to Pay for a Future Recreational Park Atop the Current Jakuševec Landfill in Zagreb, Croatia." Sustainability 11, no. 21 (October 30, 2019): 6038. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11216038.
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The main purpose of this study is to investigate the economic value potentially accrued by a prospective city park, which is planned to be built as a result of strategic land reclamation of a current landfill in Croatia, based on parkgoers’ marginal willingness to pay. The idea of this land transformation is inspired by recent debate on the issue of how to address air quality and other environmental concerns over the disposal of the landfill site in the city. Like any other nonmarket valuation studies, choosing a proper survey method is a critical step for a successful economic valuation study. We adopted a double bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method in survey design and data collection, followed by parameter estimation using the logit model. The study reveals—(1) the support of 70% of respondents was estimated; (2) as much as 96% of the respondents are willing to visit the park being presented to the respondents along with the survey questionnaire. The economic valuation indicates that the city residents are willing to pay €3.63 per person for the park’s entrance fees, which can be translated into an aggregate of €2,867,762. By referring this value information to the park budget, we may persuade policy makers to commit to a transformation of the current landfill.
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HAY, COLIN. "Globalisation, Welfare Retrenchment and ‘the Logic of No Alternative’: Why Second-best Won't Do." Journal of Social Policy 27, no. 4 (October 1998): 525–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0047279498005406.
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Peter Taylor-Gooby's recent contribution to the debate on globalisation and the logic of welfare retrenchment with which it has come to be so closely associated (1997), represents a valuable and timely intervention in a debate whose significance can scarcely be over-stated. Our assessment of the extent to which the contours of the contemporary global political economy circumscribe the parameters of the politically and economically possible is crucial to our understanding of the trajectory and future of the welfare state in a post-Keynesian era, as it is to any attempt to reclaim a positive agenda for welfare reform in a context in which social policy is increasingly being subordinated to the perceived imperative(s) of economic competitiveness. Yet, despite its important challenge to the equation of globalisation, ‘new times’ (however labelled) and welfare retrenchment, Taylor-Gooby's intervention is not unproblematic. The counterposing of an ‘old sociology’ concerned with class, capital and the state with a ‘new sociology’ of fragmentation and diversity (a sociology of and for new times) is ultimately unhelpful. It presents an artificially stark choice between a celebration of the novel that threatens to prove complicit with contemporary welfare reform on the one hand, and a reassertion of continuity and the continuing relevance of ‘second-best theory’ on the other. It is the argument of this brief response that is only by rejecting the dualistic pairings of ‘old’ and ‘new’ sociology, ‘old’ and ‘new’ times alike, that we can fashion a sociology and attendant political economy capable of detailing the complex and contingent processes currently restructuring the welfare state and of charting the space for positive alternative trajectories of welfare reform. In so doing we must resist the temptation to make do with second-best.
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Núñez Quiroga, José Eladio, and Karen Jenny Cutipa Quiso. "Valoración económica de los servicios ecosistémicos de recreación de la laguna de Chacas - Juliaca." Revista Investigación Universitaria 11, no. 2 (December 30, 2021): 558–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.53470/riu.v11i2.19.
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The objective was to estimate the economic benefits of the eco-systemic resources of the Chacas-Juliaca lagoon, the contingent valuation method was applied based on the declared preferences of the users of the lagoon, these data were introduced in a logit econometric model, a recreational service, determining a willingness to pay. The results show an entrance fee of S /. 38 that users are willing to pay, this availability depends on social and economic variables, such as income and the degree of academic education. These benefits will serve to recover the lagoon, allowing to create a fund that allows to conserve and protect the natural resources of the lagoon, currently there is a biotic and abiotic degradation due to the contamination of activities such as fishing and agriculture. Self-sustaining financing is required to conserve this natural resource, preventing future deterioration of the lagoon's ecosystem, allowing it to conserve its natural resources.
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Ragin, Renée Michelle, and Giulia Riccò. "Contemporary epistemologies of militarization in the Global South: Palimpsests and accumulative processes in Lampedusa and Lebanon." Cultural Dynamics 31, no. 4 (September 20, 2019): 291–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0921374019860923.
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We propose that contemporary militarization be understood as part of the continued legacy and consequence of colonial practices and (neo-)imperial logics. We reveal how, in spaces characterized by the palimpsestic legacies and consequences of colonialism and militarization, the latter functions as an accumulative process that glosses over, silences, and normalizes past and present practices of violence and control. Accordingly, the process of demilitarization begins by deconstructing these multiple layers, especially in countries with very recent histories of coloniality. Lampedusa and Lebanon both serve as case studies of contemporary epistemologies of militarization within and beyond the fluid contours of today’s Global South. They are deeply contested sites whose dense imperial, colonial, and militarized histories are embodied in generations of inhabitants, the consequences of which resonate in real-time. The future of these sites and their populaces are open-ended, and how individuals and collectives will remember and represent them remains, in many ways, contingent on current events.
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Hartley Ballestero, Marjorie, and Rocío Hartley Ballestero. "Valoración de los servicios ecosistémicos de recreación y turismo: un mecanismo para el desarrollo sustentable de la Reserva Forestal Grecia, Costa Rica." Economía y Sociedad 26, no. 59 (June 9, 2021): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/eys.26-59.4.
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El estudio se aborda en el marco del proyecto “Servicios de los Ecosistemas en las Cuencas Hidrográficas de la Gran Área Metropolitana de Costa Rica”, que busca entre otras cosas, contribuir con la conservación y preservación del Bosque del Niño. Este sitio constituye un remanente de los espacios naturales de la Gran Área Metropolitana, además cuenta con alto potencial para el desarrollo de la actividad turística, fuertemente vinculada con las características naturales de la región. Para la estimación de valor se utiliza el Método de Valoración Contingente tipo referéndum, donde el individuo expresa su disposición a pagar por medio de una pregunta binaria (Si o No). En el modelo referéndum la variable dependiente es discreta por tanto, el análisis de regresión se hace mediante un modelo logit.
Las personas consultadas declaran otorgarle valor de existencia presente y futura a aspectos como la biodiversidad, aire puro, la belleza escénica. Al mismo tiempo expresan el valor por las caminatas, la observación de animales. Sabiendo que estos servicios ecosistémicos le generan bienestar, los individuos están dispuestos a pagar por la conservación y preservación del sitio de recreación. En este sentido, las autoridades locales y regionales deben incorporar en sus planes de desarrollo el interés de las comunidades por preservar este tipo de lugares para su disfrute actual y futuro. Además, importa mejorar la calidad de estos servicios, fuertemente vinculados con una de las actividades económicas más importantes de la región, como es el turismo.
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Jeung, Chang-Wook, Hea Jun Yoon, and Myungweon Choi. "Exploring the affective mechanism linking perceived organizational support and knowledge sharing intention: a moderated mediation model." Journal of Knowledge Management 21, no. 4 (July 10, 2017): 946–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jkm-12-2016-0530.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the moderated mediation model in which the effect of perceived organizational support (POS) on knowledge sharing intention is mediated by levels of individual affective commitment to the organization, while the relationship between POS and affective commitment is moderated by organizational tenure. Design/methodology/approach Hypotheses on mediation, moderation and moderated mediation were tested with data collected from Korean for-profit organizations. Conditional process analyses with bootstrapping supported all three hypotheses. Findings The findings demonstrate that the relationship between POS and knowledge sharing intention is mediated by affective organizational commitment. In addition, the mediation effect is strengthened when an individual’s organizational tenure is low. Theoretical and practical implications and directions for future research are followed. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on knowledge sharing by providing a basis for understanding the mediating mechanism through which POS influences knowledge sharing intention, and, ultimately, organizational functioning via individual affective attitude. This is the first attempt examining the role of organizational tenure as a key contingency factor in knowledge sharing. By investigating the underlying logic of individual intention to share knowledge, this study expands the current spectrum for knowledge management.
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Souza, Fernando da Cruz, and Nelson Russo de Moraes. "ESTADO DE BEM-ESTAR SOCIAL: UMA REVISÃO DE LITERATURA." Revista Observatório 5, no. 5 (August 1, 2019): 906–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.20873/uft.2447-4266.2019v5n5p906.
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A austeridade permanente e a disputa de quem ganha o quê, quando e como, lógica intrínseca às políticas públicas, colocam as políticas sociais brasileiras em constantes testes. O universalismo tentativo iniciado com a Constituição de 1988 pareceu caminhar para uma ampliação da cidadania social no país, mas tem sofrido constantes ataques por falta de um compromisso de classes em torno de um projeto de país mais ou menos homogêneo. Diante dessa falta de precisão no estabelecimento Estado de Bem-estar brasileiro, em especial, pelo encolhimento no investimento público previsto para os próximos anos e com os governos mais alinhados a maior mercadorização dos serviços sociais, torna-se importante revisitar a trajetória do Welfare State em suas origens e objetivos, a fim de compreender como chegamos até aqui, o que podemos esperar do futuro e quais a intervenções necessárias para que nos aproximemos de uma inclusão sensível do grande contingente de pessoas ainda sujeitas a uma cidadania de segunda classe no Brasil. Para atender a esse objetivo, este trabalho realizou uma revisão bibliográfica convencional sobre o Estado de Bem-Estar Social, elencando a partir dela as razões históricas de seu surgimento, a tipologia de Esping-Andersen, a noção de funcionamentos e capacitações de Amartya Sen e os períodos constitutivos do bem-estar no Brasil.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Proteção social. Desenvolvimento. Direitos sociais.
ABSTRACT
The permanent austerity and the dispute over who wins what, when and how, logic intrinsic to public policies, puts Brazilian social policies in constant tests. The tentative universalism that began with the 1988 Constitution seemed to be heading for a broadening of social citizenship in the country, but it has been under constant attack for the lack of a class compromise around a homogeneous country project. Given this lack of precision in the establishment of the Brazilian Welfare State due to the shrinking public investment expected in the coming years and with the governments most aligned to the greater commodification of social services, it is important to revisit the trajectory of the Welfare State in its origins and objectives, in order to understand how far we have come, what we can expect from the future and what interventions are needed to bring us closer to a sensitive inclusion of the large contingent of people still subject to second class citizenship in Brazil. To meet this objective, this paper has carried out a conventional bibliographical review of the Welfare State, listing from it the historical reasons for its emergence, Esping-Andersen's typology, Amartya Sen's notion of functioning and capabilities and the constitutive periods of welfare in Brazil.
KEYWORDS: Social protection. Development. Social rights.
RESUMEN
La austeridad permanente y la disputa sobre quién gana qué, cuándo y cómo, la lógica intrínseca a las políticas públicas, pone a las políticas sociales brasileñas en pruebas constantes. El tentativo universalismo que comenzó con la Constitución de 1988 parecía dirigirse a una ampliación de la ciudadanía social en el país, pero ha estado bajo ataque constante por la falta de un compromiso de clase en torno a un proyecto de país más o menos homogéneo. Dada esta falta de precisión en el establecimiento del Estado de bienestar brasileño, en particular, debido a la reducción de la inversión pública esperada en los próximos años y con los gobiernos más alineados con la mayor mercantilización de los servicios sociales, es importante revisar la trayectoria del Estado de bienestar en sus orígenes y objetivos, para comprender cómo hemos llegado hasta ahora, qué podemos esperar del futuro y qué intervenciones son necesarias para acercarnos a una inclusión sensible del gran contingente de personas aún sujetas a una ciudadanía de segunda clase en Brasil. Para cumplir con este objetivo, este documento ha llevado a cabo una revisión bibliográfica convencional del Estado del Bienestar, enumerando de él las razones históricas de su surgimiento, la tipología de Esping-Andersen, la noción de funcionamiento y capacidadess de Amartya Sen, y períodos constitutivos de bienestar en Brasil.
PALABRAS CLAVE: Protección social. Desarrollo. Derechos sociales.
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Suprapto, Djoko, Mayanggita Kirana, Indah Susilowati, and Akhmad Fauzi. "Economic Valuation of Mangrove Restoration in Indonesia." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 16, no. 2 (December 30, 2015): 121. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v16i2.1457.
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Mangrove forest is one of the important ecosystems in Karimunjawa, Indonesia. It provides a variety of services both ecologically and economically. However, over-exploited activity, such as timber theft, can be threatening the sustainability of mangrove forest in Karimunjawa now and in the future. Thus, the improved management for mangrove forest is necessary to ensure its sustainability, and it is depending on how people value the conservation from economic and environment consideration. This study examines the factors influencing on the willingness to pay (WTP) of respondents for mangrove restoration in Karimunjawa. A total of 502 respondents were interviewed using census method. The method employed is Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)Single Bounded. In CVM, the logit model was defined based on dichotomous choice method to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) randomly with three different starting bid value. Findings showed that local awareness of the importance of the values given by mangroves was popularized among local communities. The findings also indicated that respondents who are higher education and have more income were more likely to pay for the mangrove restoration.
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Wigati, Slamet Setio, Bertha Maya Sopha, Anna Maria Sri Asih, and Heri Sutanta. "Geographic Information System Based Suitable Temporary Shelter Location for Mount Merapi Eruption." Sustainability 15, no. 3 (January 21, 2023): 2073. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15032073.
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Merapi is an active volcano in the Sleman District with eruptions occurring periodically. However, the time and the power of the eruptions of Merapi could not be predicted accurately. Therefore, considering the dense population around the peak of Mount Merapi, appropriate and fast handling is needed when an eruption occurs. One of the crucial parts to be handled is the availability of evacuation places for the affected population. Even though Sleman district already has contingency and evacuation plans, the existing contingency and evacuation plans cannot necessarily be implemented, as in the case of the 2010 eruption. The locations planned as the shelters based on the contingency and evacuation plans of 2009 are no longer safe, including the permanent shelters owned by Sleman Regency. Thus, in the 2010 eruption, the refugees had to be evacuated to other safe places. Hence, some additional locations planned to be temporary refuges or shelters are needed to anticipate the change in eruption patterns in the future. This paper aims to provide a model to determine suitable temporary shelter locations that meet several criteria, which include constraints (exclusionary criteria) and factors (evaluation criteria). The criteria in this study were defined based on a literature review, interviews, and a questionnaire survey on experts who have experience in the field of disasters, especially in the eruption of Mount Merapi. Constraint criteria are used to determine the candidates for shelters, i.e., the locations that are possible to be used as shelters. Potential shelters will be selected from the candidates that meet the factor criteria using geographic information system (GIS), fuzzy logic, multi-criteria decision making (analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and weighted linear combination (WLC)). The implementation of the model in the 2010 eruption case shows that the refugees experienced moving to a safe place three times during the evacuation, within a safe radius of 10, 15, and 20 km due to the increase in the power of the eruption. In this paper, therefore, the potential temporary shelters will be designed at a safe radius of 10, 15, and 20 km. For further research, the potential shelters determined can be used as input in determining the optimal shelter locations by developing an optimization model.
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Khong, Tien Dung, and Xuan Thi Dan Huynh. "Households participation in waste management program in Mekong River Delta Vietnam: Parametric and non-parametric approaches." Journal of Social, Humanity, and Education 2, no. 2 (February 23, 2022): 101–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/jshe.v2i2.809.
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Abstract Purpose: This study aims to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) in the Mekong River Delta for the improvement of solid waste (SW) management and identify factors influencing willingness to pay for the improvement program. Then, based on the results, this research proposed some policy implications for better SW management. Research methodology: The research employed both Contingent Valuation Methodology - CVM employed parametric and non-parametric approaches to estimate WTP and Logit model to identify the determinants of WTP. Results: The results from a random survey of 400 observations from 3 main cities in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) indicate that households’ willingness to pay level is from 86,000 Vietnamese Dong (VND) to 110,000 VND/month/household for the non-parametric and parametric approach, respectively (US$1 was equal to 22,890 VND on June 30th, 2021). The results also determine the factors influencing the decision to pay for the program, including bid level, households who have already classified waste, households who intend to support the program, and households’ income. Limitations: In future research, survey areas should be expanded to other developing countries in order to compare and provide a base for proposing better waste management programs in developing countries. Contribution: Future studies should apply both approaches to check the consistency of willingness to pay value elicited. Besides, in order to encourage households to participate in the waste classification program, the authorities need to raise awareness and encourage higher-income households to participate in advance.
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Bigo, Didier, and Emmanuel-Pierre Guittet. "Northern Ireland as metaphor: Exception, suspicion and radicalization in the ‘war on terror’." Security Dialogue 42, no. 6 (December 2011): 483–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0967010611425532.
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This article questions the fashionable view that Northern Ireland is a counterinsurgency lesson to be learned for the global ‘war on terror’. It suggests that Britain’s involvement in the Northern Ireland conflict – one of the longest conflicts within Europe in which a government has been at war with a clandestine organization – can be regarded as a meaningful metaphoric utterance in efforts to analyse the practical failures and threat discourses of the global ‘war on terror’. Northern Ireland is more than a specific case study: it acts as an appealing metaphor in attempts to understand the logics and pitfalls of the ‘war against terrorism’, where the increasing primacy granted to terror control – present and future – means that Western governments are increasingly more willing to infringe otherwise inviolable rights in the pursuit of a supposed greater good – security. The article explores the political economy of unease, suspicion, exception and radicalization in the ‘war against terrorism’. It concludes that Northern Ireland is not a model that can be exported around the globe but an invitation to analyse contingency, daily operations of security, and their effects on social practices and routines. Northern Ireland also represents a remarkable inducement to assess how exception, suspicion and radicalization are correlated, as well as to recognize that efforts to contain the unpredictability of the future are self-defeating.
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Jeble, Shirish, Rameshwar Dubey, Stephen J. Childe, Thanos Papadopoulos, David Roubaud, and Anand Prakash. "Impact of big data and predictive analytics capability on supply chain sustainability." International Journal of Logistics Management 29, no. 2 (May 14, 2018): 513–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlm-05-2017-0134.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical model to explain the impact of big data and predictive analytics (BDPA) on sustainable business development goal of the organization.Design/methodology/approachThe authors have developed the theoretical model using resource-based view logic and contingency theory. The model was further tested using partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) following Peng and Lai (2012) arguments. The authors gathered 205 responses using survey-based instrument for PLS-SEM.FindingsThe statistical results suggest that out of four research hypotheses, the authors found support for three hypotheses (H1-H3) and the authors did not find support forH4. Although the authors did not find support forH4(moderating role of supply base complexity (SBC)), however, in future the relationship between BDPA, SBC and sustainable supply chain performance measures remain interesting research questions for further studies.Originality/valueThis study makes some original contribution to the operations and supply chain management literature. The authors provide theory-driven and empirically proven results which extend previous studies which have focused on single performance measures (i.e. economic or environmental). Hence, by studying the impact of BDPA on three performance measures the authors have attempted to answer some of the unresolved questions. The authors also offer numerous guidance to the practitioners and policy makers, based on empirical results.
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Jagoda, Patrick. "Network Ambivalence." Contemporaneity: Historical Presence in Visual Culture 4 (August 3, 2015): 108–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5195/contemp.2015.150.
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The language of networks now describes everything from the Internet to the economy to terrorist organizations. In distinction to a common view of networks as a universal, originary, or necessary form that promises to explain everything from neural structures to online traffic, this essay emphasizes the contingency of the network imaginary. Network form, in its role as our current cultural dominant, makes scarcely imaginable the possibility of an alternative or an outside uninflected by networks. If so many things and relationships are figured as networks, however, then what is not a network? If a network points towards particular logics and qualities of relation in our historical present, what others might we envision in the future? In many ways, these questions are unanswerable from within the contemporary moment. Instead of seeking an avant-garde approach (to move beyond networks) or opting out of networks (in some cases, to recover elements of pre-networked existence), this essay proposes a third orientation: one of ambivalence that operates as a mode of extreme presence. I propose the concept of "network aesthetics," which can be tracked across artistic media and cultural forms, as a model, style, and pedagogy for approaching interconnection in the twenty-first century. The following essay is excerpted from Network Ambivalence (Forthcoming from University of Chicago Press).
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Gualandris, Jury, and Matteo Kalchschmidt. "Supply risk management and competitive advantage: a misfit model." International Journal of Logistics Management 26, no. 3 (November 9, 2015): 459–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlm-05-2013-0062.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of congruence for the management of supply risk that is easy to apply, but also accurate. The authors also aim at providing empirical evidence about the relationship between misfit – i.e. the incongruence between a firm’s preparedness in (supply) risk management and the potential riskiness characterising the context – and competitive advantage. Design/methodology/approach – In line with the purpose, literature and field interviews were used to develop a model of congruence in the context of supply risk management (SRM) and operationalise it within a questionnaire. Then, the authors collected survey data to validate the model. Findings – Results show that competitive advantage decreases when the firm’s preparedness in SRM does not match to the pattern of risk conditions (i.e. environmental vulnerabilities). Research limitations/implications – The model of congruence here developed is simple to apply but offer effective decisions support. This study, thus, stimulates future research on the assessment and management of supply chain risk. This study, also, fosters the attention to the non-linear relationship between risk management and business performance. Practical implications – This study develops a model that can be used by practitioners to configure an optimal adoption of SRM practices. Also, the analysis allows to draw some specific recommendations for supply chain managers aiming at improving their preparedness in SRM. Originality/value – By relying on SRM literature, the balanced-resilience logic and the theoretical framework of contingency theory, this study develops and test a model of congruence that shows how companies can gain competitive advantage through the management of supply risk.
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Hussain, Umer. "Pakistan Accumulators (PVT) Limited (PAL) – a third world perspective." Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 4, no. 6 (November 26, 2014): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eemcs-04-2013-0036.
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Subject area Operational Management, Strategic Management and Marketing Management. Study level/applicability The case can be taught in introductory marketing courses and management and organizational policy course and in advanced level in promotion, distribution channels, marketing research, consumer behavior and brand management courses at graduate level. Importance of market and technological research; first mover advantage and disadvantages in new market segment; importance of competition in a market; use of PESTL analysis before pursuing for any segment; types of growth strategies which could be used that is Broad base or Narrow base; how company uses marketing mix strategy; and how managers make decision in dynamic environment (contingency theory approach). Case overview This case study relates to a real-life situation the data was collected from primary and secondary sources between 2012 and 2013. The case is of a company Pakistan Accumulators (PAL), having less than 18 years of experience, has been able to grow successfully in the dynamic environment of Pakistan. The decline of the private businesses in Pakistan due to the energy crisis has popped up a new need of power generation alternative equipment in the country. PAL, which is a privately owned company, suppliers of automotive batteries, Uninterruptable Power System (UPS) batteries, lead acid batteries and rechargeable batteries has been able to manage the growth of 20 per cent per year. In this case study, we have highlighted only one market segment of the company that is of UPS batteries, we have focused on what is the future prospect of this particular segment, its attractiveness. Also, the area of focus was the new market segments which can be targeted by the company. Basic issues of the case study: calculation of the market segment value of UPS industry; identification and solution of different challenges faced by PAL in the dynamic Pakistani market (contingency theory); recognition of different future growth prospects for PAL. Expected learning outcomes The basic objective of this case is to enhance the analytical and qualitative skills of the students by giving them the real-life perspective of a company working successfully in country like Pakistan which is facing economic and political crises. This case can also be used for understanding the problems of third-world markets and how company can pursue successfully in the long–term. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.
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Enenkel, Markus, Carlos Farah, Christopher Hain, Andrew White, Martha Anderson, Liangzhi You, Wolfgang Wagner, and Daniel Osgood. "What Rainfall Does Not Tell Us—Enhancing Financial Instruments with Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture and Evaporative Stress." Remote Sensing 10, no. 11 (November 16, 2018): 1819. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs10111819.
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Advanced parametric financial instruments, like weather index insurance (WII) and risk contingency credit (RCC), support disaster-risk management and reduction in the world’s most disaster-prone regions. Simultaneously, satellite data that are capable of cross-checking rainfall estimates, the “standard dataset” to develop such financial safety nets, are gaining importance as complementary sources of information. This study concentrates on the analysis of satellite-derived multi-sensor soil moisture (ESA CCI, Version v04.2), the evapotranspiration-based Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), and CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) rainfall estimates in nine East African countries. Based on spatial correlation analysis, we found matching spatial/temporal patterns between all three datasets, with the highest correlation coefficient occurring between October and March. In large parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, we observed a lower (partly negative) correlation coefficient between June and August, which was likely caused by issues related to cloud cover and the volume scattering of microwaves in sandy, hot soils. Based on simple linear and logit regression analysis with annual, national maize yield estimates as the dependent variable, we found that, depending on the chosen period (averages per year, growing or harvesting months), there was added value (higher R-squared) if two or all three variables were combined. The ESI and soil moisture have the potential to close sensitive knowledge gaps between atmospheric moisture supply and the response of the land surface in operational parametric insurance projects. For the development and calibration of WII and RCC, this means that better proxies for historical and potential future drought impact can strengthen “drought narratives”, resulting in a better match between calculated payouts/credit repayment levels and the actual needs of smallholder farmers.
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Todd, Patrick, and Brian Rabern. "Future Contingents and the Logic of Temporal Omniscience." Noûs, May 7, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nous.12294.
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Kachi, Daisuke. "Bourne on future contingents and three-valued logic." Logic and Logical Philosophy 18, no. 1 (August 15, 2009). http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/llp.2009.003.
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Gaskin, Richard. "Future Contingency and Classical Indeterminism." Erkenntnis, December 30, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10670-021-00504-8.
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AbstractA position that has been called ‘classical indeterminism’ has recently been developed in order to model vagueness: this approach appeals to an object-language ‘determinately’ operator, the semantics of which are defined in such a way as to preserve the principle of bivalence. I suggest that a prominent argument against this strategy, which I call the Field–Williamson argument, fails. The classical indeterminist position in its general form was anticipated by the Aristotelian commentators in their discussions of Aristotle’s famous ‘sea battle’ passage concerning future contingency. But I maintain that, ironically enough, the strategy is less happily applied in this case, where a version of the Field–Williamson argument succeeds.
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Clardy, Alan. "What can we know about the future? Epistemology and the credibility of claims about the world ahead." foresight ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (August 16, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-01-2021-0020.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the results of futures studies are knowledge or if not, what it is that futures studies actually produce. Five types of representations of the future are the result of these studies. As the value of futures studies depends on no small measure of their credibility, the standards for carrying out and reporting these studies are identified along with a description of how Toulmin’s model of informal logic can be used to best improve their credibility. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a multi-disciplinary literature review and integrative analysis. Findings Using epistemological criteria for knowledge as truth, belief and rationale, the results of futures studies are not and cannot be knowledge. Instead, futures studies produce five kinds of “representations of the future”: predictions, projections and forecasts, scenarios, visions and structures for action. Six standards for conducting and reporting the results of futures studies are provided which will increase the credibility of these studies. Toulmin’s informal logic format will provide the foundation for the most persuasive basis of such studies. Practical implications Futurists will understand that the products of their studies are not knowledge and why this is the case. They will also understand that the type of futures studies they are conducting are either conditional, contingent propositions or normative prescriptions in nature. There are six guidelines for carrying out and reporting futures studies which can also be used to assess the quality of published studies. They will see how the use of a certain kind of informal logic can establish the most credible foundations for their studies. Originality/value As an integrative literature review, it incorporates and simplifies widely disparate existing contributions to the topic of the nature of knowledge regarding futures studies and the criteria for making such studies as credible as possible.
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Turner, Robert. "Heterogeneous nonuse values for Arches and Zion National Parks." Journal of Park and Recreation Administration, June 12, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18666/jpra-2022-11319.
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This paper identifies several kinds of heterogeneity in nonuse values using a contingent choice experiment about two national parks in Utah. Such heterogeneity has potentially important implications for national park management. When management resources are scarce, it matters that nonuse values differ across park resources or attributes. Resources that generate more nonuse values deserve more protection, including the impacts of visitor activities. Heterogeneity by location implies that management decisions appropriate for one park can’t be adopted in other parks without careful consideration. Heterogeneity of nonuse values matters for management if there are political, equity, or justice reasons to pay more attention to particular groups in society. Heterogeneity by type of nonuse value matters for management, too: existence values have different implications than bequest values since the latter still are generated by (future) visitation. The contingent choice experiment used in this paper asks respondents to compare different potential future scenarios for management of either Zion or Arches National Park. Each scenario is made up of potential changes to seven attributes: wilderness protection, educational outreach, animal conservation, plant conservation, visitation levels, cultural/historical protection, and an annual tax payment. Respondents’ rankings are used to estimate a variety of mixed logit models. In addition, respondents are asked to report what percentage of the total value they receive from each attribute is due to use values, option values, bequest values, and existence values. While some previous researchers used similar questions to decompose nonuse values, this paper uses the decomposition questions differently. First, they are asked separately about each attribute in the experimental design of a contingent choice survey, as opposed to being asked once about total value or total nonuse value. Second, they are used as part of a mixed logit estimation of the relative part-worths of each attribute, rather than being used to decompose the final valuation estimates. Results indicate substantial heterogeneity by park attribute, location, individual, and type of nonuse value. These differences across attributes are largely independent of demographic and socioeconomic variables, though. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the empirical findings for park management.
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Kaur, Pravneet. "The Major Effect in the Privacy Select to Run Client Server." International Journal of Innovative Research in Computer Science & Technology, November 1, 2021, 266–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.55524/ijircst.2021.9.6.59.
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Because server client systems frequently store data and process data both on the client and on the server, this sort of system contingency planning should take into consideration potential system failures on the server of the client and communication of server to client elements. This article examines the basics of customer server architecture and its privacy, such as why customerserver architecture is required and superior to others. This paper discusses the problems of MCC (Mobile Country Code), privacy and the various tasks associated with online application safety. In this article, we examined the depth of the client's server architecture, where clients transmit the requests required by the users of logic modules and secure web logging against client logging in clients. With complete distribution applications which employ computer power wherever it is accessible and give information wherever it is necessary, everybody will in future be able to use inexpensive and efficient desktop technology. In future, owners and registered users will have access to information to avoid the need for expert systems developers and their complicated programming languages. Information will be captured at source and immediately made available in the future to authorized users.
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Metrebian, N., E. Carr, K. Goldsmith, T. Weaver, S. Pilling, J. Shearer, K. Woolston-Thomas, et al. "Mobile telephone delivered contingency management for encouraging adherence to supervised methadone consumption: feasibility study for an RCT of clinical and cost-effectiveness (TIES)." Pilot and Feasibility Studies 7, no. 1 (January 7, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40814-020-00761-4.
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Abstract Background Prescription methadone or buprenorphine enables people with opioid use disorder to stop heroin use safely while avoiding withdrawal. To ensure methadone is taken as prescribed and to prevent diversion onto the illicit market, people starting methadone take their daily dose under a pharmacist’s supervision. Many patients miss their daily methadone dose risking withdrawal, craving for heroin and overdose due to loss of heroin tolerance. Contingency management (CM) can improve medication adherence, but remote delivery using technology may be resource-light and cost-effective. We developed an innovative way to deliver CM by mobile telephone. Software monitors patients’ attendance and supervised methadone consumption through an internet self-login at the pharmacy and sends reinforcing text messages to patients’ mobile telephones. A linked system sends medication adherence reports to prescribers and provides early warning alerts of missed doses. A pre-paid debit card system provides financial incentives. Methods A cluster randomised controlled trial design was used to test the feasibility of conducting a future trial of mobile telephone CM to encourage adherence to supervised methadone in community pharmacies. Each cluster (drug service/3 allied pharmacies) was randomly allocated to provide patient’s presenting for a new episode of opiate agonist treatment (OAT) with either (a) mobile telephone text message CM, (b) mobile telephone text message reminders, or (c) no text messages. We assessed acceptability of the interventions, recruitment, and follow-up procedures. Results Four drug clinics were approached and three recruited. Thirty-three pharmacists were approached and 9 recruited. Over 3 months, 173 individuals were screened and 10 enrolled. Few patients presented for OAT and high numbers were excluded due to receiving buprenorphine or not attending participating pharmacies. There was 96% consistency in recording medication adherence by self-login vs. pharmacy records. In focus groups, CM participants were positive about using self-login, the text messages, and debit card. Prescribers found weekly reporting, time saving, and allowed closer monitoring of patients. Pharmacists reported that the tablet device was easy to host. Conclusion Mobile telephone CM worked well, but a planned future trial will use modified eligibility criteria (existing OAT patients who regularly miss their methadone/buprenorphine doses) and increase the number of participating pharmacies. Trial registration The trial is retrospectively registered, ISRCTN 58958179.
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"Notes on Contributors." Philosophy 73, no. 1 (January 1998): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0031819197000120.
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Ruth Anna PutnamProfessor of Philosophy at Wellesley College, Editor of The Cambridge Companion to William James (Cambridge University Press, 1977), and author of articles on James and ethical theory.Richard GaskinHis main areas of research are metaphysics, philosophy of language, and aesthetics. He has published on the nature of predication and reference, the problem of future contingency, the scope of divine power and knowledge, fiction and truth, and Wittgenstein.Iddo LandauLecturer in Philosophy at the University of Israel. His article ‘What's Old in Derrida?‘ was published in Philosophy in July 1994.Dale JacquetteProfessor of Philosophy, The Pennsylvania State University. He is author of Philosophy of Mind, Meinongian Logic: The Semantics of Existence and Nonexistence, and Wittgenstein's Thought in Transition. His articles ‘Buridan's Bridge’ and ‘A Turing Test Conversation’ were published in Philosophy in 1991 and 1993.P. M. S. HackerFellow of St John's College, Oxford. His most recent books are Gravure and Grace: the engravings of Roger Vieillard (1993), Wittgenstein: Mind and Will (1966), and Wittgenstein's Place in the Twentieth Century Analytic Philosophy (1966).Francisco VergaraResearch Fellow at GRESE (Group de Recherches Epistemologiques et Socio-Economiques) at Paris I University, Panthéon-Sorbonne and also author of Introduction aux fondements philosophiques du libéralisme (éditions La découverte, Paris, 1992), a book on classical liberalism which has been translated into Italian, Portuguese, Romanian and Spanish.Michael DurrantReader in Philosophy, University of Wales, Cardiff. He has published articles on ancient philosophy, philosophical logic, epistemology and the philosophy of religion.Paul EdwardsProfessor of Philosophy, The City University of New York, Brooklyn College, Emeritus.
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Wegener, Mogens. "Kierkegaard om tiden og det timelige." Religionsvidenskabeligt Tidsskrift, no. 10 (July 22, 1987). http://dx.doi.org/10.7146/rt.v0i10.5400.
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This paper offers a discussion of the notions of time and temporality in Kierkegaard based on two of his major works, “Philosophical Fragments” and “The Concept of Dread”. After a general introduction to the status of the two notions within the pseudonymous authorship as a whole, two interesting theses are made the object of further inquiry: (1) the thesis of the mind-dependency of temporality proper and (2) the thesis of the revocability of the past as a precondition of the possibility of repentance. As regards the first thesis it is argued that it should be understood within the context of the distinction between natural time which is infinite succession and human temporality which is characterized by the triad of past, present & future: whereas natural time is objective, human temporality is subjective. But to Kierkegaard, subjectivity is truth; and the ultimate aim & goal of spirit (which is a synthesis of body & soul) is to transcend nature in the unique moment of decision = devotion (that moment which is in itself a synthesis of temporality & eternity). Therefore, from the point of view of the existing thinker, it is subjective time which is real whereas objective time is an illusion. As regards the second thesis it is argued that although Kierkegaard opposes the Hegelian view that the contingent becomes necessary by its receding into the past, he does not thereby deny that the past is, in a certain sense, unchangeable (for if it was not, either there would be nothing to repent, or the subjective truth of repenting & forgiving might also be an illusion; but that is truly absurd). In fact, my main point is that although Kierkegaard denies the possibility of imposing motion onto logic, his very own reflections concerning the dialectics of being and existence make an important contribution to a new logic of time and motion in time.