Academic literature on the topic 'Future Drought Projection'
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Journal articles on the topic "Future Drought Projection"
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Wehner, Michael, David R. Easterling, Jay H. Lawrimore, Richard R. Heim, Russell S. Vose, and Benjamin D. Santer. "Projections of Future Drought in the Continental United States and Mexico." Journal of Hydrometeorology 12, no. 6 (2011): 1359–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jhm1351.1.
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Abstract Using the Palmer drought severity index, the ability of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce observed statistics of drought over North America is examined. It is found that correction of substantial biases in the models’ surface air temperature and precipitation fields is necessary. However, even after a bias correction, there are significant differences in the models’ ability to reproduce observations. Using metrics based on the ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial patterns of drought, the relationship between model performance in simulating present-day drought characteristics and their differences in projections of future drought changes is investigated. It is found that all models project increases in future drought frequency and severity. However, using the metrics presented here to increase confidence in the multimodel projection is complicated by a correlation between models’ drought metric skill and climate sensitivity. The effect of this sampling error can be removed by changing how the projection is presented, from a projection based on a specific time interval to a projection based on a specified temperature change. This modified class of projections has reduced intermodel uncertainty and could be suitable for a wide range of climate change impacts projections.
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Khan, Muhammad Imran, Xingye Zhu, Xiaoping Jiang, et al. "Projection of Future Drought Characteristics under Multiple Drought Indices." Water 13, no. 9 (2021): 1238. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13091238.
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Drought is a natural phenomenon caused by the variability of climate. This study was conducted in the Songhua River Basin of China. The drought events were estimated by using the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are based on precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data. Furthermore, drought characteristics were identified for the assessment of drought trends in the study area. Short term (3 months) and long term (12 months) projected meteorological droughts were identified by using these drought indices. Future climate precipitation and temperature time series data (2021–2099) of various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were estimated by using outputs of the Global Circulation Model downscaled with a statistical methodology. The results showed that RCP 4.5 have a greater number of moderate drought events as compared to RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moreover, it was also noted that RCP 8.5 (40 events) and RCP 4.5 (38 events) showed a higher number of severe droughts on 12-month drought analysis in the study area. A severe drought conditions projected between 2073 and 2076 with drought severity (DS-1.66) and drought intensity (DI-0.42) while extreme drying trends were projected between 2097 and 2099 with drought severity (DS-1.85) and drought intensity (DI-0.62). It was also observed that Precipitation Decile predicted a greater number of years under deficit conditions under RCP 2.6. Overall results revealed that more severe droughts are expected to occur during the late phase (2050–2099) by using RDI and SPI. A comparative analysis of 3- and 12-month drying trends showed that RDI is prevailing during the 12-month drought analysis while almost both drought indices (RDI and SPI) indicated same behavior of drought identification at 3-month drought analysis between 2021 and 2099 in the research area. The results of study will help to evaluate the risk of future drought in the study area and be beneficial for the researcher to make an appropriate mitigation strategy.
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Rhee, Jinyoung, and Jaepil Cho. "Future Changes in Drought Characteristics: Regional Analysis for South Korea under CMIP5 Projections." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17, no. 1 (2015): 437–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0027.1.
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Abstract The future changes in drought characteristics were examined on a regional scale for South Korea, in northeastern Asia, using 17 bias-corrected projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The frequency of severe or extreme drought, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), with time scales of 1, 3, and 12 months (i.e., SPI1, SPI3, SPI12, SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12), was considered, as well as the average duration based on SPEI1. A multimodel ensemble (MME) was produced using selected models, and future changes were investigated in terms of both drought frequency and the average duration for the entire area and four river basins. The changes in drought frequency largely depend on the selection of a drought index, rather than climate projection scenarios. SPEI3 mostly projected future increases in drought frequency, while SPI3 showed varied projections. SPI12 projected decreases in drought frequency for both scenarios in the study area, while differences between river basins were observed for SPEI12. Increases in the average duration of droughts were projected based on SPEI1, indicating an increase in persistent short-term droughts in the future. The results emphasize the importance of regional- and subregional-scale analysis in northeastern Asia. The findings of the study provide valuable information that can be used for drought-related decision-making, which could not be obtained from studies on a global spatial scale.
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Wambua, Raphael Muli. "Development of a Non-Linear Integrated Drought Index (NDI) for Managing Drought and Water Resources Forecasting in the Upper Tana River Basin-Kenya." International Journal of Environmental Sustainability and Green Technologies 11, no. 1 (2020): 15–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijesgt.2020010102.
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This article uses the non-linear integrated drought index (NDI) for managing drought and water resources forecasting in a tropical river basin. The NDI was formulated using principal component analysis (PCA). The NDI used hydro-meteorological data and forecasted using recursive multi-step neural networks. In this article, drought forecasting and projection is adopted for planning ahead for mitigation and for the adaptation of adverse effects of droughts and food insecurity in the river basin. Results that forecasting ability of NDI model using ANNs decreased with increase in lead time. The formulated NDI as a tool for projecting into the future.
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Burke, Eleanor J., and Simon J. Brown. "Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought." Journal of Hydrometeorology 9, no. 2 (2008): 292–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jhm929.1.
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Abstract The uncertainty in the projection of future drought occurrence was explored for four different drought indices using two model ensembles. The first ensemble expresses uncertainty in the parameter space of the third Hadley Centre climate model, and the second is a multimodel ensemble that additionally expresses structural uncertainty in the climate modeling process. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), the precipitation and potential evaporation anomaly (PPEA), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and the soil moisture anomaly (SMA) were derived for both a single CO2 (1×CO2) and a double CO2 (2×CO2) climate. The change in moderate drought, defined by the 20th percentile of the relevant 1×CO2 distribution, was calculated. SPI, based solely on precipitation, shows little change in the proportion of the land surface in drought. All the other indices, which include a measure of the atmospheric demand for moisture, show a significant increase with an additional 5%–45% of the land surface in drought. There are large uncertainties in regional changes in drought. Regions where the precipitation decreases show a reproducible increase in drought across ensemble members and indices. In other regions the sign and magnitude of the change in drought is dependent on index definition and ensemble member, suggesting that the selection of appropriate drought indices is important for impact studies.
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Anagnostopoulou, C. "FUTURE DROUGHT PROJECTION FOR THE GREEK REGION." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 2 (2017): 1038. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11808.
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Drought is one of the most important factors of change. The epi-drops drought in one area are complex because they simultaneously affect many areas, such as climate, agriculture, the economy and in general the structure of society. This study deals only with the meteorological drought, particularly considering the phenomenon of drought through the index Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Greece is characterized by frequent drought episodes that often exceed 10 consecutive days of drought (dry spells). Also, in recent years the area probably climate models have been used in a wide study of the impact of climate change in different regions on the planet. Rainfall data from five regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to calculate the SPI index in the Greek area, the reporting period and two subsequent periods by the end of the 21st century. All models show a decreasing trend of the SPI median during the period studied. For the first future period 2021-2050, there is a clear signal for a dry decade towards the end of the period that is most apparent in southern and island regions. On the other hand, in the second future period 2071-2100, there is an increasing trend resulting to normal or wetter years.
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El Qorchi, Fadoua, Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza, Onyango Augustine Omondi, Ahmed Karmaoui, and Siham Acharki. "Projection analysis of future drought characteristics in Upper Draa Catchment (Southern Morocco)." E3S Web of Conferences 489 (2024): 04006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202448904006.
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The consequences of global warming will aggravate the impacts of droughts. Future drought patterns are important for planning and policy formulation to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. Consequently, this study aims at examining the projected the drought characteristics in seven meteorological stations in the Upper Draa Catchment (UDC) during the period from 1980 to 2016 using standardized precipitation index. The future climate scenarios were predicted by the model CNRM-ALADIN63 for three periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099). The changes were examined based on two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, namely: RCP4.5and RCP8.5. The findings indicated that increasingly extreme droughts are anticipated to occur during (2050-2074) followed by (2025-2049) than (2075-2099) under both scenarios. The results reveal a contrast in drought event frequency between historical data and projections with a noticeable variation of patterns of droughts characteristics across stations and time periods. This accentuates how urgent it is for the Upper Draa Catchment to implement proactive water resource management and adaptive strategies.
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Pratiwi, Nila Ardhyarini H., Mahawan Karuniasa, and Djoko Santoso Abi Suroso. "Exploring Historical and Projection of Drought Periods in Cirebon Regency, Indonesia." E3S Web of Conferences 68 (2018): 02007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20186802007.
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Climate hazards that affect drought could have an impact on agricultural production. Cirebon Regency as one of West Java's food supply areahas experienced hydrological drought because ofclimate variability. Hence, there were many rice fieldswhich lack of water sources for irrigation and resulted in crop failure. Accordingly, this study aims to explore the historical and projection of drought periods as well as the severity of droughts in Cirebon Regency, Indonesia. Interpretation of weather and climate data and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were employed for methods of this studyby using rainfall data only. Based on baseline data (1986-2017) from Jatiwangi Meteorological Stationand Global Circulation Model (GCM) projection simulation (2020-2045) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the SPI analysis results show that the drought periodsare predicted to shift in the future with increasing drought severity. This study concludes that climate variability that affects future dry rainfall will still happen in uncertain month periods.Therefore, climatic information is needed in the vulnerable area to reduce the potential impactsthat will occur in the future.
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Chamorro, Alejandro, Tobias Houska, Shailesh Singh, and Lutz Breuer. "Projection of Droughts as Multivariate Phenomenon in the Rhine River." Water 12, no. 8 (2020): 2288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12082288.
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Drought is a complex phenomenon whose characterization is best achieved from a multivariate perspective. It is well known that it can generate adverse consequences in society. In this regard, drought duration, severity, and their interrelationship play a critical role. In a climate change scenario, drought characterization and the assessment of the changes in its pattern are essential for a proper quantification of water availability and managing strategies. The purpose of this study is to characterize hydrological droughts in the Rhine River in a multivariate perspective for the historical period and estimate the expected multivariate drought patterns for the next decades. Further, a comparison of bivariate drought patterns between historical and future projections is performed for different return periods. This will, first, indicate if changes can be expected and, second, what the magnitudes of these possible changes could be. Finally, the underlying uncertainty due to climate projections is estimated. Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are used along with five General Circulation Models (GCM). The HBV hydrological model is used to simulate discharge in both periods. Characterization of droughts is accomplished by the Standardized Runoff Index and the interdependence between drought severity and duration is modelled by a two-dimensional copula. Projections from different climate models show important differences in the estimation of the number of drought events for different return periods. This study reveals that duration and severity present a clear interrelationship, suggesting strongly the appropriateness of a bivariate model. Further, projections show that the bivariate interdependencies between drought duration and severity show clearly differences depending on GCMs and RCPs. Apart from the influence of GCMs and RCMs, it is found that return periods also play an important role in these relationships and uncertainties. Finally, important changes in the bivariate drought patterns between the historical period and future projections are estimated constituting important information for water management purposes.
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Javadinejad, Safieh, Rebwar Dara, and Forough Jafary. "Evaluation of hydro-meteorological drought indices for characterizing historical and future droughts and their impact on groundwater." Resources Environment and Information Engineering 2, no. 1 (2020): 71–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25082/reie.2020.01.003.
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The effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts is very important in arid and semi-arid regions. Analyzing these effects on groundwater supplies plays an important role for water management in those regions. This paper aims to characterize droughts in the Isfahan-Borkhar basin, an arid area of Iran. The observed hydro-climatic data (for the period of 1971-2005) were used for hydro-meteorological projections (for the period of 2006-2040). Meteorological and surface hydrological drought evaluated by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and the effect of hydro-meteorological droughts on groundwater was investigated by Groundwater Resources Index (GRI). Results showed that dry and wet conditions would occur in the region in the initial and subsequent decades, based on the three indices. There was a significant association between SPI, SRI, and GRI at the time scale of 12 months. The SPI estimated using only meteorological variables alone and it is useful for estimating meteorological drought forecasts. However, SRI and GRI can represent hydrological drought that computed using catchment discharge, soil moisture and groundwater level. Results showed a considerable alteration in time of drought outlines across the area and association between the variables of predicted precipitation, temperature and the kind of indices. The projection of all three drought indices indicated drier conditions in the future period (2006-2042). The results provide reasonable management strategy for management of water resources in arid coastal plains.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Future Drought Projection"
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CHHIN, Rattana. "Future Projection of Drought in the Indochina Region Based on the Optimal Ensemble Subset of CMIP5 Models." Kyoto University, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/242616.
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Jenkins, Katie L. "Modelling the economic and social consequences of drought under future projections of climate change." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2012. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/242439.
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Drought events and their consequences pose a considerable problem for governments, businesses and individuals. Superimposed on this risk is the danger of future anthropogenic climate change. Climate models are increasingly being used to understand how climate change may affect future drought regimes. However, methodologies to quantify the type and scale of social and economic effects that could occur under these future scenarios are virtually non-existent. Consequently, this study developed a methodology for projecting and quantifying future drought risk in terms of economic damages and numbers of lives lost and affected. In this study, historic drought events were identified in regional precipitation data using the Standardised Precipitation Index, and their magnitude quantified. Drought magnitude was linked to reported historic data on economic damages and the numbers of lives affected and lost, to create country specific economic and social drought damage functions for Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain/Portugal and the USA. Future projections of drought magnitude for 2003-2050 were modelled using the integrated assessment model CIAS (Community Integrated Assessment System), for a range of climate and emission scenarios, and applied to the drought damage functions to estimate future economic and social drought effects. Additionally, a preliminary investigation of indirect economic drought damages was conducted using the Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (ARIO).The analysis identified large variability in the scale and trend of economic and social effects from future drought. Economic benefits projected to occur in some countries were outweighed by negative effects elsewhere, with annual losses to global GDP from drought increasing in the first half of the 21st century. The analysis suggested that severe and extreme SPI-6 and SPI-12 drought events could cause additional losses to global GDP of 0.01% to 0.25% annually. Whilst this effect on global GDP may appear small, this is considered a conservative estimate namely as the analysis is representative of six countries only; the estimates do not incorporate the possibility of successive drought events, or compounding effects on vulnerability from interactions with other extreme events such as floods. Additionally, the global economic estimates exclude indirect economic effects, and social and environmental losses; the possibility of increasing vulnerability due to changing socio-economic conditions; and the possibility of irreversible or systemic collapse of economies as, under future climate change, drought magnitude may exceed current experience and surpass thresholds of social and economic resilience. Yet importantly, even just considering direct economic effects of individual drought events on a handful of countries still resulted in a noticeable effect on global GDP.Stringent mitigation had little effect on the increasing economic and social effects of drought in the first half of the 21st century, so in the short-term adaptation in drought ‘hot spots’ is crucial. However, stringent mitigation will be required to reduce increasingly severe drought events that are projected for the second half of the 21st century. A case study of Spain suggested that indirect economic losses increased non-linearly as a function of direct losses, amplifying total economic damages of drought. Importantly the non-linearity seen between direct and indirect economic costs suggests that the benefits of stringent mitigation policies, in terms of avoided indirect losses, may be more substantial than for direct losses in the second half of the 21st century. The main impact of the research is its contribution to the assessment of economic and social damages from drought events through the creation and application of drought damage functions. The drought damage functions could be incorporated into wider economic assessments of climate change or integrated assessment models that currently exclude extreme weather events. The inclusion of drought related economic and social damages could help to guide appropriate levels of climate change mitigation, help to gauge the vulnerability of communities to future drought events, guide drought risk management, and inform drought adaptation strategies. The application of I-O analysis to estimate indirect economic losses from drought is a relatively new and developing area of research. The research highlights how I-O analysis could be used to provide estimates of economic drought damages under future climate change, which are more comprehensive, and useful for assessing benefits of future mitigation and adaptation strategies. Consequently, there are many gains to be seen from the continued development and application of this research methodology for drought.
Book chapters on the topic "Future Drought Projection"
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Wagener, Thorsten. "On the Evaluation of Climate Change Impact Models for Adaptation Decisions." In Springer Climate. Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_5.
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AbstractDetailed understanding of the potential local or regional implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure solutions suitable for potential future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest (such as drought or flood risk) are needed to create the required causal connection between climate and impact for scenario-based analyses. Recent studies suggest that the main strategy for the validation of such models (and hence the justification for their use) still heavily relies on the comparison with historical observations. In this short paper, the author suggests that such a comparison alone is insufficient and that global sensitivity analysis provides additional possibilities for model evaluation to ensure greater transparency and better robustness of model-based analyses. Global sensitivity analysis can be used to demonstrate that the parameters defining intervention options (such as land use choices) adequately control the model output (even under potential future conditions); it can be used to understand the robustness of model outputs to input uncertainties over different projection horizons, the relevance of model assumptions, and how modelled environmental processes change with climatic boundary conditions. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen the stakeholder confidence in model projections and therefore into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of these model outputs.
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Gao, Xuejie, Qingyun Duan, Tinghai Ou, et al. "Climate Variability and Climate Change: Past and Future." In Water Resources in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin: Impact of Climate Change and Human Interventions. Springer Nature Singapore, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0759-1_2.
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AbstractThe LMRB (LMRB) has experienced significant climate change, particularly over the last 50 years. An increase in the annual precipitation but with significant seasonal differences in the changes, and a remarkable warming are observed over the Basin. The region also experienced more frequent extreme events, such as an increase in extreme precipitation, as well as hot days and warm nights, a decrease in cold days and cold nights, and a more frequent occurrence of droughts. The future climate over the Basin is projected to be continuous warming, which is most significant by the end of the twenty-first century. A general wetting is projected over the region with the spatial pattern of the projected annual total precipitation change show consistencies with the present day condition. Differences are found between the global and regional climate model projections in the precipitation, indicating the uncertainties existing in the projections, and also the importance of the model resolution in projecting future climate.
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Arnell, Nigel, Stephen Dorling, Hayley Fowler, Helen Hanlon, Katie Jenkins, and Alan Kennedy-Asser. "Future Changes in Indicators of Climate Hazard and Resource in the UK." In Quantifying Climate Risk and Building Resilience in the UK. Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39729-5_10.
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Abstract The UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR) funded several projects that have calculated how climate change is likely to affect climate hazards and resources across the UK, using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Under a high emissions scenario, heatwaves and high temperature extremes become more frequent across the UK, leading to an increase in human mortality, animal heat stress, potato blight, wildfire danger and damage to road and rail infrastructure. Cold weather extremes continue to occur but become less frequent. Also under high emissions, the growing season starts earlier, lasts longer and is warmer; this is particularly beneficial for grassland and viticulture, but the chance of summer drought and dry soils increases. The precise effects vary across different agricultural systems. With respect to rainfall, high hourly and daily totals become more frequent, leading to a greater chance of flash flooding. River floods become more frequent in the north and west of the UK, but low river flows and droughts also become more frequent, and water quality in upland water sources declines. The actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change. There are large differences in change in risk across the UK. However, the actual size of the change in risk is uncertain, primarily due to uncertainty in exactly how rainfall will change.
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Engelbrecht, Francois A., Jessica Steinkopf, Jonathan Padavatan, and Guy F. Midgley. "Projections of Future Climate Change in Southern Africa and the Potential for Regional Tipping Points." In Sustainability of Southern African Ecosystems under Global Change. Springer International Publishing, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10948-5_7.
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AbstractSouthern Africa is a climate change hotspot with projected warming and drying trends amplifying stresses in a naturally warm, dry and water-stressed region. Despite model-projected uncertainty in rainfall change over the eastern escarpment of South Africa, strong model agreement in projections indicates that southern African is likely to become generally drier. Sharply increased regional warming and associated strong reductions in soil-moisture availability and increases in heat-waves and high fire-danger days are virtually certain under low mitigation futures. Changes are detectible in observed climate trends for the last few decades, including regional warming, drying in both the summer and winter rainfall regions, and increases in intense rainfall events. The southern African climate is at risk of tipping into a new regime, with unprecedented impacts, such as day-zero drought in the Gauteng province of South Africa, collapse of the maize and cattle industries, heat-waves of unprecedented intensity and southward shifts in intense tropical cyclone landfalls. Many of these adverse changes could be avoided if the Paris Accord’s global goal were to be achieved, but research is urgently required to quantify the probabilities of such tipping points in relation to future levels of global warming. Adaptation planning is an urgent regional priority.
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Finch, Deborah M., Jack L. Butler, Justin B. Runyon, et al. "Effects of Climate Change on Invasive Species." In Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45367-1_4.
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AbstractMean surface temperatures have increased globally by ~0.7 °C per century since 1900 and 0.16 °C per decade since 1970 (Levinson and Fettig 2014). Most of this warming is believed to result from increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activity. Temperature increases have been greater in winter than in summer, and there is a tendency for these increases to be manifested mainly by changes in minimum (nighttime low) temperatures (Kukla and Karl 1993). Changes in precipitation patterns have also been observed, but are more variable than those of temperature. Even under conservative emission scenarios, future climatic changes are likely to include further increases in temperature with significant drying (drought) in some regions and increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (IPCC 2007). For example, multimodel means of annual temperature from climate projections predict an increase of 3–9 °C in the United States over the next century combined with reductions in summer precipitation in certain areas (Walsh et al. 2014). These changes will affect invasive species in several ways. Furthermore, climate change may challenge the way we perceive and consider nonnative invasive species, as impacts to some will change and others will remain unaffected; other nonnative species are likely to become invasive; and native species are likely to shift their geographic ranges into novel habitats.
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Opere, Alfred, Anne Omwoyo, Purity Mueni, and Mark Arango. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Eastern Africa." In Research Anthology on Environmental and Societal Impacts of Climate Change. IGI Global, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-3686-8.ch056.
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Climate change is causing great impact on water resources in Eastern Africa, and there is need to establish and implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC, less rainfall during the months that are already dry could increase drought as well as precipitation, and this has great impact on both permanent and seasonal water resources. Increased sea surface temperature as a result of climate change could lead to increased drought cases in Eastern African and entire equatorial region. Climate change will also result in annual flow reduction in various river resources available within the region such as the Nile River. IPCC predicts that rainfall will decrease in the already arid areas of the Horn of Africa and that drought and desertification will become more widespread, and as a result, there will be an increased scarcity of freshwater even as groundwater aquifers are being mined. Wetland areas are also being used to obtain water for humans and livestock and as additional cultivation and grazing land. This chapter reviews the climate change impacts on water resources within the Eastern Africa Region. The climate change impacts on different water resources such as Ewao Ngiro have been highlighted and projection of future climate change on water resources examined. Stream flow for Ewaso Ngiro was found to have a significant increasing trend in 2030s of RCP4.5 and non-significant decreasing trend in stream flow in 2060s for RCP4.5.
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Opere, Alfred, Anne Omwoyo, Purity Mueni, and Mark Arango. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Eastern Africa." In Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-0163-4.ch010.
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Climate change is causing great impact on water resources in Eastern Africa, and there is need to establish and implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC, less rainfall during the months that are already dry could increase drought as well as precipitation, and this has great impact on both permanent and seasonal water resources. Increased sea surface temperature as a result of climate change could lead to increased drought cases in Eastern African and entire equatorial region. Climate change will also result in annual flow reduction in various river resources available within the region such as the Nile River. IPCC predicts that rainfall will decrease in the already arid areas of the Horn of Africa and that drought and desertification will become more widespread, and as a result, there will be an increased scarcity of freshwater even as groundwater aquifers are being mined. Wetland areas are also being used to obtain water for humans and livestock and as additional cultivation and grazing land. This chapter reviews the climate change impacts on water resources within the Eastern Africa Region. The climate change impacts on different water resources such as Ewao Ngiro have been highlighted and projection of future climate change on water resources examined. Stream flow for Ewaso Ngiro was found to have a significant increasing trend in 2030s of RCP4.5 and non-significant decreasing trend in stream flow in 2060s for RCP4.5.
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Aminzade, Jennifer. "Projections of Future Drought." In Our Warming Planet. World Scientific, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789813148796_0011.
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Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Eric Martin, Enrique Sánchez, et al. "Sub-chapter 1.3.3. Drought: observed trends, future projections." In The Mediterranean region under climate change. IRD Éditions, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/books.irdeditions.23157.
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Billing, Maik, Christopher Marrs, Matthias Forkel, Eike Sebode, and Kirsten Thonicke. "Present and future fire risk changes in Central Europe." In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_193.
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Fire risk is projected to increase under future climate change. Most projections focus on fire-prone regions, such as the Mediterranean-type ecosystems, whereas little attention has been paid to regions of low fire risk such as Central Europe. Here, future projections of fire risk which are tailor-made for its specific conditions are scarce. With our study we aim to fill this gap. We use meteorological station data and interpolated climate datasets to compute future fire risk for Central Europe (covering Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic) using the Fire Weather Index. In a next step, we analyse the spatial distribution of reported fire ignitions to identify additional drivers that can explain the spatial pattern of fire ignition and risk, or accelerate fire risk under climate extremes (drought or extreme heat). We analyse how transport infrastructure and proximity to settlements have influenced fire ignition in Central Europe and compare it against relationships known from fire-prone regions. We aim to build on recent adjustments of the FWI to account for respective increased fire risk and apply it to our study area. We conduct high-resolution analysis of fire-risk analysis by computing the FWI along the wildland-urban and wildland-rural interface in individual sites in the study region. In a next step, downscaled future climate scenarios (CMIP6) are applied to compute changes in future fire risk for the entire study area as well as the selected sites in Central Europe. Uncertainty ranges of future fire risk projections will be covered by using several climate scenarios for the entire study region. Detailed analysis will be conducted at the local scale by further refining changes in ignition potentials along the wildland-urban and the wildland-rural interface in selected sites in Central Europe under climate change conditions.
Conference papers on the topic "Future Drought Projection"
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Li, Xiehui, Feiyang Mao, Lei Wang, and Jingkun Yang. "Future drought projection of Southwestern China based on CMIP5 model and MCI index." In 2021 7th International Conference on Hydraulic and Civil Engineering & Smart Water Conservancy and Intelligent Disaster Reduction Forum (ICHCE & SWIDR). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ichceswidr54323.2021.9656446.
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Promping, Thanasit, and Tawatchai Tingsanchali. "Meteorological Drought Hazard Assessment under Future Climate Change Projection for Agriculture Area in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand." In 2020 International Conference and Utility Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icue49301.2020.9307085.
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"What do climate projections say about future droughts in Alabama?" In ASABE 1st Climate Change Symposium: Adaptation and Mitigation. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/cc.20152095906.
Full textReports on the topic "Future Drought Projection"
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Barr, Robert, Laura Bowling, Kyuhyun Byun, et al. The Future of Indiana’s Water Resources: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Purdue University, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317640.
Full textAbstract:
This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) applies climate change projections for the state to explore how continued changes in Indiana’s climate are going to affect all aspects of water resources, including soil water, evaporation, runoff, snow cover, streamflow, drought, and flooding. As local temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, managing the multiple water needs of communities, natural systems, recreation, industry, and agriculture will become increasingly difficult. Ensuring that enough water is available in the right places and at the right times will require awareness of Indiana’s changing water resources and planning at regional and state levels.
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Ruosteenoja, Kimmo, Joona Hautala, and Mika Rantanen. Climate change in Finland, Germany, Uruguay and China: observed changes and future projections derived from CMIP6 global climate models. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2024. https://doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523362017.
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This report examines recent past changes in mean temperature and precipitation and future climate projections in four areas where the UPM-Kymmene company operates: Finland, Germany, Uruguay and China. Observational changes over 1961–2023 are derived from the ERA5 reanalysis and future projections from CMIP6 global climate models. Three greenhouse gas scenarios are considered: the SSP1-2.6 scenario represents low, SSP2-4.5 medium and SSP5-8.5 very high future emissions. All projections are presented with respect to the period 1981--2010, and main focus is placed on the changes projected for the period 2040–2069 under SSP2-4.5. In addition, we discuss changes in indices representing extreme heat, excessive precipitation events and the occurrence of drought. Observational seasonal temperatures have already shown a statistically significant increase. For precipitation, interannual variability is large, and no statistically significant trends were found, apart from Finland in winter. In the future, mean temperatures are projected to increase in all four regions, even though inter-model differences in the magnitude of change are substantial. In conjunction with the general warming, hot extremes will become increasingly frequent. For variables other than temperature, there is at least some degree of model disagreement on the sign of the change. However, it is likely that precipitation will increase in Finland in winter and decrease in Germany in summer. Extreme precipitation evidently intensifies in all four regions. In Germany, the risk of drought is expected to increase especially in late summer. Solar radiation is projected to increase in Finland and Germany (especially in summer) and in China (in all seasons). An important factor behind this phenomenon is the decrease of aerosol load in the air. For relative humidity, a substantial decrease is projected for Germany in summer. In the second half of the 21st century, the magnitude of climate change depends strongly on the evolution of greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, if emissions were effectively reduced, the changes would probably be weaker than those simulated under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
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Matthews, Stephen N., Louis Iverson, Matthew Peters, and Anantha Prasad. Assessing potential climate change pressures across the conterminous United States. United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6941248.ch.
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The maps and tables presented here represent potential variability of projected climate change across the conterminous United States during three 30-year periods in this century and emphasizes the importance of evaluating multiple signals of change across large spatial domains. Maps of growing degree days, plant hardiness zones, heat zones, and cumulative drought severity depict the potential for markedly shifting conditions and highlight regions where changes may be multifaceted across these metrics. In addition to the maps, the potential change in these climate variables are summarized in tables according to the seven regions of the fourth National Climate Assessment to provide additional regional context. Viewing these data collectively further emphasizes the potential for novel climatic space under future projections of climate change and signals the wide disparity in these conditions based on relatively near-term human decisions of curtailing (or not) greenhouse gas emissions.
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Brandt, Leslie A., Cait Rottler, Wendy S. Gordon, et al. Vulnerability of Austin’s urban forest and natural areas: A report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Northern Forests Climate Hub, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2020.7204069.ch.
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The trees, developed green spaces, and natural areas within the City of Austin’s 400,882 acres will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the City Austin to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how less common native species, nonnative species, and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening trees and forests in Austin. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, and development. Austin has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since measurements began in 1938 and temperature is expected to increase by 5 to 10°F by the end of this century compared to the most recent 30-year average. Both increases in heavy rain events and severe droughts are projected for the future, and the overall balance of precipitation and temperature may shift Austin’s climate to be more similar to the arid Southwest. Species distribution modeling of native trees suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 14 primarily northern species, and increase for four more southern species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that only 3% of the trees estimated to be present in Austin based on the most recent Urban FIA estimate were considered to have low vulnerability in developed areas. Using a panel of local experts, we also assessed the vulnerability of developed and natural areas. All areas were rated as having moderate to moderate-high vulnerability, but the underlying factors driving that vulnerability differed by natural community and between East and West Austin. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.
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Rantanen, Mika, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Sanna Luhtala, et al. Ilmastonmuutos pääkaupunkiseudulla. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361737.
Full textAbstract:
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity have already warmed the climate of Earth by more than one degree. Significant changes have been observed e.g. in the intensity of heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Future climate change depends on human emissions, but it is likely that the global mean temperature still rises by another 1–2 degrees by the end of this century. The ongoing global warming is already visible in the climate of the capital region. Many of the observed changes are consistent with what human-caused intensification of the greenhouse effect will bring. During the past 60 years, the average temperatures have risen in all seasons, but the strongest warming has been observed in winter. Precipitation has increased in the winter season, but no statistically significant trends in precipitation can be observed in other seasons. In addition to the average climatic conditions, heatwaves have intensified with a stronger increase in the inland regions than on the coast. In this report, the latest climate change projections based on CMIP6 climate models and SSP greenhouse gas scenarios used in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report are presented. According to the moderate SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, the average temperatures are predicted to rise in the capital region by 2.5–3 degrees in all months from the period 1981–2010 by the period 2040–2069. The warming is slightly weaker than in Finland on average, and the changes are somewhat larger in winter than in summer. A milder winter climate results in a further decrease in snow and ice cover. The rising temperatures in summer bring stronger heatwaves, heavy rainfalls and prolonged periods of droughts. There are no clear signs of change in the windiness, and thus winter storms are not predicted to be notably stronger in the future than they are now. Instead, the amount of precipitation induced by winter cyclones increases and comes more often as rain than snow. The sea level is not projected to rise much by the mid-century, but by the end of the century it is estimated to rise by about 25 cm from its current level. Even according to the most optimistic emission scenario, the climate in the capital region would warm by more than one degree by the 2080s. The climate change by the end of the century experienced by future generations is highly dependent on human emissions, and one must be ready to prepare for some degree of change. On the other hand, the climate in the capital region is subject to significant natural variability, and therefore cold periods of weather may occur also in the future.
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Thomas, Lisa, Christopher Calvo, Jolie Gareis, Lisa Thomas, Christopher Calvo, and Jolie Gareis. Semi-arid plant communities of the Southern Colorado Plateau in relation to regional climate context and local topoedaphic conditions: Comparing species abundance patterns across a network of sites to identify climate-driven vulnerabilities and inform hypotheses about future composition shifts. National Park Service, 2024. https://doi.org/10.36967/2306569.
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With climate projections for increased warming and greater drought severity, the semi-arid grasslands, shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands occurring at lower elevations on the Colorado Plateau are likely to change in coming decades. Using shrub and herbaceous data from seven long-term study areas, I describe across-ecosite compositional gradients within the current regional climate context and compare spatial variability among assemblages. At the local scale, I model the relationship between composition and topoedaphic conditions. I use these results to develop hypotheses regarding the types of community change that may occur. From the across-ecosite ordination, I found high similarity among three of four grassland/shrubland assemblages, and low to moderate similarity among woodland assemblages. Beta diversity is significantly higher in two of the five assemblages, denoting spatially heterogenous composition patterns. Analysis of the relationship between the species abundance matrix and climate variables found that the three primary axes of variation accounted for 48.7% of total variation. Axis 1 separates grassland/shrubland assemblages from woodland assemblages, aligning with a gradient in annual precipitation. Axis 2, reflecting a gradient in perennial grass dominance, aligns with precipitation seasonality. Axis 3 aligns with seasonal temperature differences and Vapor Pressure Deficit. Because topoedaphic conditions mediate soil water availability in semi-arid ecosystems, understanding their relationship to local composition patterns is essential to predicting how these communities will respond to climate change. Within-ecosite compositional gradients aligned with one to five environmental variables per ecosite. Elevation correlated with compositional gradients in all ecosites, and edaphic variables correlated with compositional gradients in four ecosites. Compositional dominance also influences community stability. Dominance strength varied among ecosites, with abundance of the top two species ranging from 66% of total abundance for the strongest pattern to 35% for the weakest. From a functional group perspective, dominance was shared between perennial grass and shrub species for three woodland ecosites and one grassland/shrubland ecosite. Perennial grasses dominated in the other ecosites with several shrub species displaying moderate abundance. These results contribute to comparing vulnerabilities and sources of resilience across ecosites. By considering both the strength of dominance patterns and dominant species characteristics against the backdrop of projected climate impacts, I offer hypotheses concerning future assemblage stability and propose comparisons of community change trajectories between ecosite pairs. Such comparisons complement ongoing trend analyses and may provide earlier warning of changes in dominance strength or species rank shifts than would be apparent by comparing a single assemblage to itself through time.
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Rutledge, Annamarie, and Leslie (Leslie Alyson) Brandt. Puget Sound Region. USDA Northern Forests Climate, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2023.8054016.ch.
Full textAbstract:
As the climate changes over the 21st century, the Puget Sound region's urban forest will be impacted by changing temperatures and precipitation regimes, leading to implications for the people who depend on its ecosystem services. This report summarizes climate change projections for the Puget Sound region and provides an assessment of tree species vulnerability in the region. We used projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones to understand how tree species of interest are projected to tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted trees to stressors such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution, as well as environmental conditions such as shade, soils, and restricted rooting using "modification factors"--an adaptability scoring system for planted environments. The region has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since 1960, and the average temperature is projected to increase by 5.0°F to 8.6°F by the end of the century compared with the 1971-2000 historical average. Precipitation in the region has been increasing by over 0.5 inches per decade since 1960 and is projected to increase by 2.1 to 3.2 inches by the end of the century compared with the 1971-2000 historical average. By the end of the century, the Puget Sound region is projected to shift from hardiness zones 8-9 to zone 9 completely, and from heat zone 2 to heat zone 3 (RCP4.5) or 6 (RCP8.5), depending on the climate change scenario. Of the evaluated tree species, 27% were rated as having high adaptability, 59% were rated as having medium adaptability, and 14% were rated as having low adaptability. Given that the hardiness zone range is projected to remain within the historical (1980-2009) range, we considered both heat zones alone as well as heat and hardiness zones. Considering heat zones only, most of the assessed tree species fell into the low-moderate vulnerability category (57%), followed by low vulnerability (26%) and moderate vulnerability (17%) under both low and high climate change scenarios. The vulnerability ratings remain the same between low and high climate change scenarios because all assessed tree species are considered suitable under both sets (low and high) of heat zone projections through the end of the century. Considering both heat and hardiness zones, most of the assessed tree species fell into the moderate-high vulnerability category (34%), followed by low-moderate (25%), moderate (18%), low (14%), and high (9%). The vulnerability ratings are the same between low and high climate change scenarios because the projected hardiness zone is the same under both scenarios through the end of the century. The vulnerability of individual species is not the only factor to consider when making urban forestry decisions, and this assessment also contains species diversity and human health as additional factors. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, equity and environmental justice efforts, and long-term planning from partnerships to green infrastructure.