Academic literature on the topic 'Future expectations'

This literature review critically synthesizes 10 years of international teacher expectations research using a simplified “expectation effect process” model. New developments in teacher expectation research are outlined, including effects of teacher expectations on students, teachers’ development of expectations, teachers’ differential treatment of students, and students’ reactions to teacher expectations. A brief overview of pre-2008 research presents the foundations of the post-2008 research using the same “expectation effect process” model. A separate section about Australian research is also included. Results of the literature review show that while qualitative research on the topic has increased from 2008 to 2018, quantitative studies still prevail and qualitative studies on the topic—particularly those which consider students’ perspectives—are rare. Hence, this article argues that the development of a more holistic, in-depth understanding of how teacher expectations affect student outcomes is possible through contextually embedded qualitative research that includes exploration of students’ reactions to teacher expectations. In this way, further understandings about how and why expectation effects vary between students could be gained.

Expectations about the future were elicited from a class of 322 South African university students who were divided into four groups. Subjects completed a questionnaire about the near or far future and about the expected influence of either the outside situation or personality. The main finding was that subjects tilted towards the expectation that their personalities would dominate their futures, whether five or twenty-five years hence.

Sovereign vehicles are the smart vehicles of this upcoming era, expected to be driverless, competent, and collision free vehicles. To achieve this aim, automakers have begun to work in this area to understand the depth and overcome the present hurdles in order to achieve the desired end. The first challenge in this strategy would be to absorb current practices in conventional vehicles in order to transfer them to self-driving vehicles through the adoption and implementation of several emerging technologies. This encompasses the goals of autonomous vehicles as well as the challenges of implementing them. The existing Automated vehicles (AVs) controversy isn't about whether or not they should be employed; they're currently in use. Rather, such worries are increasingly focused on how developing technology will impact evolving transportation networks, our social environment, and the people who live in it, as well as whether such systems should be completely automated or remain under human control. This research adds to the body of knowledge by attempting to shed light on future prospects as well as potential roadblocks linked with AV technology. We want to address these concerns and offer some solutions to the difficulties that are currently surfacing.

Work and family are the two most significant life domains for most individuals (Greenhaus, Collins & Shaw, 2003). Compositional and structural changes in the work and family domains over the past few decades such as: dual-earner couples and single working parents, the decline of traditional gender roles and a movement toward egalitarian family structures have rendered increased understanding and reconciliation of family and working life (Steil, 2007). Such work- family considerations, however, are not only important for adults within the workforce, but also for young adults who are in the process of making future family and career decisions, and are about to enter the workforce (Westring & Ryan, 2011). The purpose of this study was to explore how students understand and distinguish between different life roles, and therefore gain insight into the expectations they have of their future life roles. Using Kelly's Repertory Grids Technique, qualitative data was obtained through fifteen interviews with postgraduate students from the University of Cape Town. The data was analysed using a combination of thematic analysis and frequency counts. The reliability of the results was ensured by conducting two sets of reliability checks. Following thematic analysis, eight dyadic themes emerged: self-interest- selflessness, demanding- relaxing, collaborationindependence, freedom-restriction, affective- unaffective, boring- enjoyment, structuredflexible, and personal satisfaction- obligation. These themes revealed values and attributes students perceive as significant in the construal of their future life roles. The results were interpreted and discussed in light of existing research and literature in the field.

The gains derived from human capital can be affected by life –changing decisions. In my thesis I explore three of these decisions: the decision to migrate abroad (Chapter 1), the decision to migrate inside your own country (Chapter 2) and the decision to become an entrepreneur (Chapter 3). The three decisions involve a great deal of uncertainty that individuals express through expectations. I study these decisions by analyzing subjective expectations of future college graduate students. In chapter one I use the survey and data collection of Delavande and Zafar and for the second and third chapter I designed one survey and did the data collection in Bogotá, Colombia. Beyond the study of the determinants of individual migration and entrepreneurial expectations as strategies to allocate human capital, I contribute to the literature on subjective expectations. Chapter 1 investigates the role of subjective expectations and beliefs in the decision of migration of Pakistani college students to USA, Saudi Arabia and China. Findings suggest that students from different socioeconomic backgrounds and exposure to Western ideas react differently to the same potential migration destinations, not only in their preference for earnings but also in their individual preference for risks and amenities. Chapter 2 investigates what should be the incentives that a government must provide to promote the migration of future graduates from a developed urban centre to less developed ones in Colombia, as a strategy for regional development. The expected earnings, expectations about provision of schools, access to health and roads are the most important determinants to promote this specific type of migration in Colombia. Chapter 3 examines the role of earning expectations and personal characteristics on the subjective probability of becoming an entrepreneur of future graduates from Bogotá, Colombia. The expected earnings as an entrepreneur together with the preference for independence and having a previous entrepreneurial experience in the family affects positively the subjective probability of becoming an entrepreneur. These results are similar to other studies giving evidence that it is feasible to use subjective expectations as a measure of entrepreneurial intentions.

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciências da Educação: Educação Especial, área de especialização em Domínio Cognitivo e Motor
Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar quais as expectativas face à escola dos encarregados de educação dos alunos com e sem necessidades educativas especiais (NEE), de duas escolas: Escola Básica Integrada Francisco Ferreira Drummond e da Escola Secundária Vitorino Nemésio, que frequentam o 2º e 3º ciclos do ensino básico e ensino secundário, na ilha Terceira. A metodologia adotada teve por base uma abordagem mista, contemplando metodologias do tipo quantitativo e qualitativo, com um questionário adaptado de Sanches (2007) e Araújo (2008), que foi utilizado para identificar as expectativas dos encarregados de educação face à escola. Foram inquiridos 278 encarregados de educação, sendo 142 encarregados de educação da Escola Secundária Vitorino Nemésio e 136 encarregados de educação da Escola Básica Integrada Francisco Ferreira Drummond. As conclusões indicam que a maioria dos indivíduos da amostra afirma ter-se deslocado à escola entre uma e três vezes durante o ano letivo e que a iniciativa dessa ida à escola partiu dos encarregados de educação, indicando que estes têm uma participação ativa na escola. Pode concluir-se também que a escola ideal, para os encarregados de educação, deve desenvolver competências no sentido de preparar para a integração dos jovens na sociedade, para a inserção do mercado de trabalho e para a construção de cidadãos responsáveis, justos e íntegros. No que se refere às expectativas as famílias evidenciaram expectativas elevadas em relação às finalidades da escola, colocando nesta instituição a esperança de um futuro promissor para os seus filhos.
This study main goal is analyze what are the expectations regarding the school from parents of students, with and without special educational needs (SEN), of two schools: Escola Básica Integrada Francisco Ferreira Drummond and Escola Secundária Vitorino Nemésio, which attend the 2nd and 3rd cycles of primary and secondary school education, in Terceira Island. The adopted methodology was based on a mixed approach, covering methods of quantitative and qualitative types, with a questionnaire adapted from Sanches (2007) and Araújo (2008), which was used to identify the expectations of parents regarding the school. 278 parents were surveyed, 142 were from Escola Secundária Vitorino Nemésio and 136 parents from Escola Básica Integrada Francisco Ferreira Drummond. The findings indicate that most of the sampled individuals stated that went to school between one and three times during the current school year, and the initiative of going to school departed from parents, indicating that they have an active participation in school. It can be concluded also that the ideal school for parents should develop skills to prepare young people for integration into society, for entering the labor market and to build responsible citizens, fair and complete. Concerning the expectations, families showed high expectations related to school purposes by placing in this institution the hope for a promising future for their children.

Published Article
This study focuses on the impact of societal change and related societal problems on the black youth of post-apartheid South Africa. It is argued that adolescents' perspectives on their future in this country could be negatively influenced by the extent of societal problems which are currently experienced in South Africa. Other findings indicate that the influence of traditional cultural norms and values on the black youth is slowly but surely diminishing. Middle class Black adolescents tend to share the general consumerism of South Africa's wealthy classes, and many are detached from the history of the struggle for political freedom. Amidst severe societal problems such as poverty, unemployment, HIV / AIDS and violent crime, the findings of an empirical investigation into the views of 391 black adolescents from a variety of socio-economic backgrounds indicate that a general spirit of optimism and independence exists, paired with a strong desire to escape the trappings of poverty and to fulfil their career and social expectations.

The process of thought applied to establish a thesis topic has been one of non-acceptance of the situations on face value. As such the future profitability of the Nissan Stamping Plant has been considered. A mental model has been established in the authors mind that a definite problem exists within this area. This has led to the formulation of a framework that can be used to handle the problem of low profits that will eventually lead to the closure of the operation. Status-Quo has remained within the operations for almost 25 years, but now changes in Government Legislation pose threats. This leads to the question of how can the profits be improved. The framework was built around a philosophy of continual search for the truth. The scientific method has been applied to understand the theories of a single or double loop response whilst proceeding through the Plan, Do, Check, and Action cycle.

Apesar de a família ser o elemento fundamental e primordial do desenvolvimento do ser humano, existem diversos motivos que podem levar à rutura familiar, criando-se, assim, a necessidade de colocar crianças e jovens em instituições de acolhimento. É de salientar que jovens colocados em instituições de acolhimento podem sofrer psiquicamente quanto à orientação através das normas sociais e familiares, o que advém em dificuldades criação e construção de expectativas de futuro. Foram realizadas dez entrevistas semiestruturadas a onze jovens do sexo feminino da CARE Porta Mágica (Casa de Acolhimento Residencial Especializado), sendo estas analisadas através de metodologias de análise qualitativa; Abstract: Although the family is the fundamental and primordial element in the development of human beings, there are several reasons that can lead to a family breakdown, thus creating the need to place children and young people in foster care institutions. It should be noted that young people placed in foster care institutions may suffer psychically regarding orientation through social and family norms, which results in difficulties in creating and building future expectations. Eleven semi-structured interviews were carried out with eleven young women from CARE Porta Mágica (Casa de Acolhimento Residencial Especializado), which were analyzed using qualitative analysis methodologies

Lifelong learning is known and well-studied in the West, but many times the findings of studies conducted in Europe and USA are simplified to universal findings. Although the world is not that simplistic, it is often argued that the East has a more collectivistic culture while the West is leaning more towards an individualistic. Only a few studies have been conducted on the subject in the East and those studies have a macro-perspective with a focus on political and economic values, while the individual perspective is left unexplored. The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of what Thai students expect from their professional future from a lifelong learning perspective and how culture in terms of individualistic and collectivistic dimensions influences these expectations. This is a qualitative study where our empirical data come from ten semi-structured interviews, with last year’s university students in Bangkok. The findings showed that the students’ expectations are influenced by the collectivistic culture while at the same time being connected with the rapid moving society around them. This could be seen as a divided thinking between old traditions and new possibilities, between individualistic dreams and collectivistic loyalty. The findings suggest that lifelong learning in Thailand is influenced by more than just the collectivistic dimension, as previous research shows. We offer a consideration of the situation above and believe young adults are finding their own way, trying to please both sides of a complex situation.

Since mid-1990, it has been discussed that China’s economic rise would affect political space. There are some worries that the “rejuvenation” of China as economic, politic, geo-strategic power could challenge to the current international system. Hence this rising has been called “China threat theory” and it could cause a conflict in international system. According to realist school, China’s peaceful rise is almost impossible, so China will threat to the current international system and clash with hegemonic power. They also provide some empirical evidence from history. On the other hand, Liberals expresses that trade provides valuable benefits to any particular states. So, China as a dependent state should avoid from war or conflict, since peaceful trading gives it all the benefits of close ties without any of the costs and risks of war. This paper attempts to examine ‘China’s peaceful rise’ based on interdependence and trade expectations theory within the context of international political economy. To analyze whether China threat or not to the world, we have to know the relationship between economic and politics. Trade expectations theory could explain the rise of China with establishes bridge between incompetence of realist and liberal theories. According to trade expectations theory, the rise of China will be peaceful because of China’s expectations as economically are positive. For this reason, China as a rational actor chooses win-win without risk instead of win-lose or lose-lose. If China’s expectations turn into negative in future, its policies could change from cooperation to conflict.

Expectations of research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy are shifting towards effectively addressing major societal challenges. Due to its potential to increase innovative dynamics, to develop new knowledge and create new solutions, social innovation is increasingly promoted. This raises questions about (potential) effects and impacts of social innovation. The assessment of impacts is a rather new topic in this field, respective research is still in its early stages. This paper proposes to focus on the change of social practices within RTI ecosystems when assessing social innovation. The ecosystem approach is not only a helpful concept to analyse the emergence and diffusion of social innovation in a specific context, it can also be used to support and guide policy design. Implication for evaluation design are discussed and analytical categories presented. A set of measurement dimensions is proposed that can be used in evaluation designs and for future research.

A systematic approach to tree planting and management globally is hindered by the limited synthesis of information sources on tree uses and species priorities. To help address this, the authors ‘mined’ information from 23 online global and regional databases to assemble a list of the most frequent tree species deemed useful for planting according to database mentions, with a focus on tropical regions. Using a simple vote count approach for ranking species, we obtained a shortlist of 100 trees mentioned in at least 10 of our data sources (the ‘top-100’ species). A longer list of 830 trees that were mentioned at least five times was also compiled. Our ‘top-100’ list indicated that the family Fabaceae (syn. Leguminosae) was most common. The information associated with our mined data sources indicated that the ‘top-100’ list consisted of a complementary group of species of differing uses. These included the following: for wood (mostly for timber) and fuel production, human nutrition, animal fodder supply, and environmental service provision (varied services). Of these uses, wood was most frequently specified, with fuel and food use also highly important. Many of the ‘top-100’ species were assigned multiple uses. The majority of the ‘top-100’ species had weediness characteristics according to ‘attribute’ invasiveness databases that were also reviewed, thereby demonstrating potential environmental concerns associated with tree planting that need to be balanced against environmental and livelihood benefits. Less than half of the ‘top-100’ species were included in the OECD Scheme for the Certification of Forest Reproductive Material, thus supporting a view that lack of germplasm access is a common concern for trees. A comparison of the ‘top-100’ species with regionally-defined tree inventories indicated their diverse continental origins, as would be anticipated from a global analysis. However, compared to baseline expectations, some geographic regions were better represented than others. Our analysis assists in priority-setting for research and serves as a guide to practical tree planting initiatives. We stress that this ‘top-100’ list does not necessarily represent tree priorities for the future, but provides a starting point for also addressing representation gaps. Indeed, our primary concern going forward is with the latter.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Why research Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland? Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology sheds light on the first colonisation and subsequent early inhabitation of Scotland. It is a growing and exciting field where increasing Scottish evidence has been given wider significance in the context of European prehistory. It extends over a long period, which saw great changes, including substantial environmental transformations, and the impact of, and societal response to, climate change. The period as a whole provides the foundation for the human occupation of Scotland and is crucial for understanding prehistoric society, both for Scotland and across North-West Europe. Within the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods there are considerable opportunities for pioneering research. Individual projects can still have a substantial impact and there remain opportunities for pioneering discoveries including cemeteries, domestic and other structures, stratified sites, and for exploring the huge evidential potential of water-logged and underwater sites. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology also stimulates and draws upon exciting multi-disciplinary collaborations. Panel Task and Remit The panel remit was to review critically the current state of knowledge and consider promising areas of future research into the earliest prehistory of Scotland. This was undertaken with a view to improved understanding of all aspects of the colonization and inhabitation of the country by peoples practising a wholly hunter-fisher-gatherer way of life prior to the advent of farming. In so doing, it was recognised as particularly important that both environmental data (including vegetation, fauna, sea level, and landscape work) and cultural change during this period be evaluated. The resultant report, outlines the different areas of research in which archaeologists interested in early prehistory work, and highlights the research topics to which they aspire. The report is structured by theme: history of investigation; reconstruction of the environment; the nature of the archaeological record; methodologies for recreating the past; and finally, the lifestyles of past people – the latter representing both a statement of current knowledge and the ultimate aim for archaeologists; the goal of all the former sections. The document is reinforced by material on-line which provides further detail and resources. The Palaeolithic and Mesolithic panel report of ScARF is intended as a resource to be utilised, built upon, and kept updated, hopefully by those it has helped inspire and inform as well as those who follow in their footsteps. Future Research The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarized under four key headings:  Visibility: Due to the considerable length of time over which sites were formed, and the predominant mobility of the population, early prehistoric remains are to be found right across the landscape, although they often survive as ephemeral traces and in low densities. Therefore, all archaeological work should take into account the expectation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic ScARF Panel Report iv encountering early prehistoric remains. This applies equally to both commercial and research archaeology, and to amateur activity which often makes the initial discovery. This should not be seen as an obstacle, but as a benefit, and not finding such remains should be cause for question. There is no doubt that important evidence of these periods remains unrecognised in private, public, and commercial collections and there is a strong need for backlog evaluation, proper curation and analysis. The inadequate representation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic information in existing national and local databases must be addressed.  Collaboration: Multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross- sector approaches must be encouraged – site prospection, prediction, recognition, and contextualisation are key areas to this end. Reconstructing past environments and their chronological frameworks, and exploring submerged and buried landscapes offer existing examples of fruitful, cross-disciplinary work. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology has an important place within Quaternary science and the potential for deeply buried remains means that geoarchaeology should have a prominent role.  Innovation: Research-led projects are currently making a substantial impact across all aspects of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology; a funding policy that acknowledges risk and promotes the innovation that these periods demand should be encouraged. The exploration of lesser known areas, work on different types of site, new approaches to artefacts, and the application of novel methodologies should all be promoted when engaging with the challenges of early prehistory.  Tackling the ‘big questions’: Archaeologists should engage with the big questions of earliest prehistory in Scotland, including the colonisation of new land, how lifestyles in past societies were organized, the effects of and the responses to environmental change, and the transitions to new modes of life. This should be done through a holistic view of the available data, encompassing all the complexities of interpretation and developing competing and testable models. Scottish data can be used to address many of the currently topical research topics in archaeology, and will provide a springboard to a better understanding of early prehistoric life in Scotland and beyond.