Academic literature on the topic 'Future rainfall patterns'
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Journal articles on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Tayşi, H., and M. Özger. "Disaggregation of future GCMs to generate IDF curves for the assessment of urban floods." Journal of Water and Climate Change 13, no. 2 (2021): 684–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.241.
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Abstract Urbanization and industrialization cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn causes changes in the atmosphere. Climate change is causing extreme rainfalls and these rainfalls are getting stronger day after day. Floods are threatening urban areas, and short-duration rainfall and outdated drainages are responsible for urban floods. Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are crucial for both drainage system design and assessment of flood risk. Once IDF curves are determined from historical data, they are assumed to be stationary. However, IDF curves must be non-stationary and time varying based on preparation for extreme events. This study generates future IDF curves with short-duration rainfalls under climate change. To represent future rainfall, an ensemble of four Global Climate Models generated under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were used in this study. A new approach to the HYETOS disaggregation model was applied to disaggregate daily future rainfall into sub-hourly using disaggregation parameters of hourly measured rainfalls. Hence, sub-hourly future rainfalls will be obtained capturing historical rainfall patterns instead of random rainfall characteristics. Finally, historical and future IDF curves were compared. The study concludes that increases in short-duration rainfalls will be highly intensified in both the near and distant futures with a high probability.
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Sartorius von Bach, H. J., and K. M. Kalundu. "Estimating the Rainfall Patterns in Namibia: Are rainfall patterns a myth or fact?" Namibian Journal for Research, Science and Technology 2, no. 1 (2020): 101–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.54421/njrst.v2i1.23.
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Rainfall is generally regarded as the key driver for ecosystem processes, particularly important within the dynamics of semi-arid regions. Since the precipitation impacts the natural environment, human society and the economy, the paper applied rainfall forecasting to avail early warning patterns. The Waterberg rainfall data from 1895 to 2019 was used to determine a better understanding of its pattern. This is necessitated because knowledge of rainfall patterns are required for reviewing production targets and a necessity for decision making in agriculture. Data shows that only 34% of the rainfall years accounted average rainfall, meanwhile 66% of rainfall years is either classified as above or below. Further, results show that the ENSO patterns follow a cyclical pattern, which corresponds to the local Waterberg rainfall. Econometric approaches postulate that there exists volatility of rainfall, effective rainfall, its intensity, cycles and the ENSO data. This paper shows that rainfall forecasting is possible when using a model that takes into account the variation in the ENSO, cyclical pattern and the accumulation of various rainfall cycles. A five year forecast shows that the current experienced drought cycle is coming to an end, and that the prospects of above average years will only persist for 2 years. We recommend that knowledge of the cyclical trend needs to be translated into reliable periodic statements to safeguard Namibia against future famines, possible food shortages and counter rising food prices. Although the methods are robust, they call for further research into the causes of dynamics of observed rainfall variability.
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Schultz, Colin. "Using regional wind-inducing circulation patterns to estimate future rainfall." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92, no. 48 (2011): 452. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011eo480017.
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Riquetti, Nelva B., Carlos R. Mello, Samuel Beskow, and Marcelo R. Viola. "Rainfall erosivity in South America: Current patterns and future perspectives." Science of The Total Environment 724 (July 2020): 138315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138315.
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Maichandee, Supanee, Prachaya Namwong, and Onuma Methakeson. "Impacts of Climate Change and Regional Variations on Future Rainfall Patterns in Thailand by Downscaling Method." ASEAN Journal of Scientific and Technological Reports 27, no. 1 (2023): 80–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.55164/ajstr.v27i1.250817.
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In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns in Thailand using the downscaling method. The simulation data was obtained from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, using the Community Earth System Model (CCSM) as a boundary condition. The characteristics of rainfall were analyzed in terms of the total annual rainfall, rainfall intensity, the number of days with heavy rain, and the total amount of rainfall in each season in the future compared to the base periods. It was found that the simulation of the climate in upper Thailand was consistent with the reanalysis values, with TCC ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. The simulated annual rainfall amount is underestimated throughout the country. There are indications that rainfall will increase in average and extreme terms in some regions, including the eastern region of the Northeast, the western side of the North, and the upper part of the West. In the southern part of the country, the overall rainfall indices are expected to decrease with low confidence in almost the entire region.
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Nayak, Sridhara. "Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments." Climate 11, no. 5 (2023): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli11050094.
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We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951–1980 and 1981–2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051–2080 and 2081–2110). Our analysis found that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951–2010, which is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In the warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20 mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.
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Yeo, Myeong-Ho, James Pangelinan, and Romina King. "Identifying Characteristics of Guam’s Extreme Rainfalls Prior to Climate Change Assessment." Water 14, no. 10 (2022): 1578. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14101578.
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Extreme rainfall and its consequential flooding account for a devastating amount of damage to the Pacific Islands. Having an improved understanding of extreme rainfall patterns can better inform stormwater managers about current and future flooding scenarios, so they can minimize potential damages and disruptions. In this study, the scaling invariant properties of annual maximum precipitations (AMPs) are used for describing the regional patterns of extreme rainfalls over Guam. AMPs are calculated at seven stations in Guam and exhibit distinct simple scaling behavior for two different time frames: (1) from 15 min to 45 min; and (2) from 45 min to 24 h. With these two different behaviors, the conventional estimation methods for sub-hourly durations overestimate the frequencies at a site in which breakpoints are clearly observed, while the proposed Scaling Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, based on the Scaling Three-NCM (S3NCM) method, provides comparable estimates. A new regional extreme rainfall analysis approach based on scaling exponents is introduced in this study. Results show distinct extreme rainfall patterns over Guam. Moreover, the numerical and graphical analyses identify that a tropical cyclone may increase daily AMPs by 3%, on average.
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Munir, Agus Qomaruddin, and Heru Ismanto. "RAINFALL PREDICTION USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM APPROACH." JITK (Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Teknologi Komputer) 9, no. 1 (2023): 30–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.33480/jitk.v9i1.4180.
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Rainfall is one indicator to determine the estimated adequacy of groundwater on agricultural land. The groundwater availability produced by rain can determine cropping patterns in an area. The availability of rainfall data depends on the accuracy of information on current climate conditions. This case causes the related parties to find difficulty determining the classification of cropping patterns in the future. Accurate rainfall prediction models are needed to overcome the problem of shifting rain patterns. Rainfall prediction models in determining cropping patterns are recommended by FAO, such as linear regression, which is still widely used today. This study aims to develop a new model of rainfall prediction by using the method SARIMA to determine cropping patterns to increase crop yields. Rainfall data was used from 2010 to 2020 from seven rainfall collection stations in Sleman Regency, and they are used as training data to predict future rainfall. The output of the data analysis is a prediction of rainfall in the range of January-April, which is predicted to be high, May-August, which is predicted to be low; and September-December, which is predicted to be moderate. In addition, based on the identified cropping patterns, recommendations can be given to farmers to set cropping schedules and strategies to increase the productivity of the farmland. The testing of accuracy forecasting used relative mean absolute error (RMAE) for 12 months. The results of the forecasting accuracy test for 12 months in Sleman Regency showed RMAE average of 1.46 was considered low, for it was still below 10%.
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Desai, V. P., R. K. Kamat, and K. S. Oza. "Rainfall Modeling and Prediction using Neural Networks: A Case Study of Maharashtra." Disaster Advances 15, no. 3 (2022): 39–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1503da3943.
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In different parts of the globe, accurate rainfall forecasting models are needed to forecast rainfall in real-time during the typhoon season to prevent disasters caused by heavy rainfall in the region. The current study developed a time series based analysis technique to predict precipitation during the monsoon season. As evidenced by the investigations in this study, a data-driven technique has considerable scope for predicting the future variables and patterns from existing data, mainly when applied to complex and challenging natural phenomena such as rainfall. The ANN-based technique has an immense potential to predict rainfall data using lagged time series analysis model. We have investigated rainfall patterns, their variability in Maharashtra state and future rainfall prediction through the present study. The neural network autoregression model put forth is a promising technique for rainfall prediction. The model's performance is evaluated concerning error rate and model fit and exhibits reasonably good performance.
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Sravani, A., N. Sujatha, L. V. Rao, and V. Lakshmana Rao. "Analysis of Historical and Future Rainfall Projections in India's Lower Godavari Basin." International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14, no. 2 (2024): 771–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i23988.
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Changes in evaporation and precipitation in the climate are precursors to changes in the water cycle due to the increase in temperatures due to climate change. In recent years, enormous changes in precipitation patterns have led to an increase in extreme rainfall events, reflecting flash floods in smaller areas. To understand this, you must study the rainfall patterns of the district and the smaller watersheds. In the present study, we have observed the trend of rainfall in the lower Godavari basin, which was part of the Godavari River from 1970 to 2019, using IMD 0.25X0.25 ° gridded rainfall data. According to the study, during the winter season and before the monsoon, there is no significant increasing or decreasing trend. In the post-monsoon season they are showing a negative and decreasing trend with a magnitude of 4 mm/year. But in the monsoon season, one end (the right end near the river mouth) of the basin or watershed is showing an increasing trend, while the left part is showing a significantly decreasing trend. In addition to that, future projections of the CMIP5 two scenarios data from 2000 to 2100 to understand the precipitation patterns in future projections. Lower Godavari basin from 2020–2040 and 2040-2100 with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. With the RCP 4.5 scenario, the first 40 years (2020–2040) of the future projected mean seasonal rainfall are 4.5 mm/year higher in the western part of the sub-basin than in the eastern and river mouth regions.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Pinto, Izidine S. de Sousa. "Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781.
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Includes bibliographical references<br>Changes in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM).
Books on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Plotkin, Mark J. The Amazon. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wentk/9780190668297.001.0001.
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The Amazon is a land of superlatives. The complex ecosystem covers an area about the size of the continental U.S. The Amazon River discharges 57 million gallons of water per second--in two hours, this would be enough to supply all of New York City’s 7.5 million residents with water for a year. Its flora and fauna are abundant. Approximately one of every four flowering plant species on earth resides in the Amazon. A single Amazonian river may contain more fish species than all the rivers in Europe combined. It is home to the world's largest anteater, armadillo, freshwater turtle, and spider, as well as the largest rodent (which weighs over 200 lbs.), catfish (250 lbs.), and alligator (more than half a ton). The rainforest, which contains approximately 390 billion trees, plays a vital role in stabilizing the global climate by absorbing massive amounts of carbon dioxide--or releasing it into the atmosphere if the trees are destroyed. Severe droughts in both Brazil and Southeast Asia have been linked to Amazonian deforestation, as have changing rainfall patterns in the U.S., Europe, and China. The Amazon also serves as home to millions of people. Approximately seventy tribes of isolated and uncontacted people are concentrated in the western Amazon, completely dependent on the land and river. These isolated groups have been described as the most marginalized peoples in the western hemisphere, with no voice in the decisions made about their futures and the fate of their forests. In this addition to the What Everyone Needs to Know® series, ecologist and conservation expert, Mark J. Plotkin, who has spent 40 years studying Amazonia, its peoples, flora, and fauna. The Amazon offers an engaging overview of this irreplaceable ecosystem and the challenges it faces.
Book chapters on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Ucan Turkmen, Filiz, and Fatma Sarigullu Onalan. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Sustainability of Safe Food." In Climate Change and Future of Agriculture. Nobel Tip Kitabevleri, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.69860/nobel.9786053359449.11.
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Climate change, or global warming, is the result of rising temperatures caused by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), trap the sun’s heat, leading to rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and melting glaciers. These changes have a significant impact on agricultural production, affecting the quality and quantity of food. Fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture affect plant physiology, threatening food security and sustainability. This study highlights the importance of water and soil in food production and the need for sustainable agricultural practices and technologies. Implementing effective policies is essential to produce safe food, protect natural resources and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Ensuring a safe and sustainable agricultural system is essential to meet the food needs of a growing population and to maintain the health of the environment under changing climatic conditions.
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Bilim, Hasan I. Cem, and Meryem Kuzucu. "The Relationship Between Soil Tillage and Yield in the Process of Climate Change." In Climate Change and Future of Agriculture. Nobel Tip Kitabevleri, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.69860/nobel.9786053359449.1.
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Climate change process is an important topic regarding the relationship between soil tillage and productivity. Climate change is among the factors affecting agriculture and soil fertility. Soil tillage is a significant part of agricultural practices and affects the physical, chemical, and biological properties of soil. Factors such as increasing temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events due to climate change can have an impact on soil tillage. This situation can adversely affect or enhance soil structure and fertility. Soil tillage can provide benefits such as reducing erosion, increasing water retention capacity, and facilitating access to plant nutrients. However, improper soil tillage practices can decrease soil fertility and lead to environmental problems. Therefore, understanding the relationship between soil tillage and productivity in the climate change process and adopting appropriate agricultural practices are important. This is necessary to maintain soil fertility and support sustainable agriculture.
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Quenum, Gandome Mayeul L. D., Nana A. B. Klutse, Eric A. Alamou, Emmanuel A. Lawin, and Philip G. Oguntunde. "Precipitation Variability in West Africa in the Context of Global Warming and Adaptation Recommendations." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_85.
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AbstractIt is commonly accepted that the Earth’s climate is changing and will continue to change in the future. Rising temperatures are one of the direct indicators of global climate change. To investigate how the rising global temperature will affect the spatial pattern of rainfall in West Africa, the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario were driven by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) and analyzed at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the preindustrial level. This study utilized three indices, the precipitation concentration index (PCI), the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and the precipitation concentration period (PCP) over West Africa to explore the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of precipitation concentrations. Besides, the analysis of the effect of the specified GWLs on the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), and frequency of the intense rainfall events allowed to a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in West Africa. Results reveal that, for the projections simulations and at each GWL, the rainfall onset starts one month earlier in the Gulf of Guinea in response to the control period. To encourage adaptation to the various changes in climate in general, and particularly in respect of rainfall, this study proposes several adaptation methods that can be implemented at the local (country) level, as well as some mitigation and adaptation strategies at the regional (West African) level.
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Mabhuye, Edmund B., and Pius Z. Yanda. "Locally based responses to impacts of climate change in pastoral landscapes of Northern Tanzania." In Climate change impacts and sustainability: ecosystems of Tanzania. CABI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789242966.0101.
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Abstract The impacts of climate change and variability have manifested themselves throughout the world, but considerable temporal and spatial variations exist across various places and countries. Given the variation in vulnerability, this study was undertaken in pastoral landscapes in northern Tanzania to assess the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies and their implications to communities' livelihoods and ecosystem integrity. It examined: (i) climate trends and associated impacts on communities' livelihood options; (ii) climate change coping and adaptation strategies adopted by selected communities to reduce the severity of climate change impacts; and (iii) the challenges associated with climate change adaptation strategies in the pastoral landscape. Primary data were collected using household surveys, interviews with key informants, focus group discussions, direct field observation using transect walks and institutional analysis. Secondary data were obtained through documentary review and theme-content analysis. Results indicate that there are slight increases in temperature and wind speed as well as decreasing trends and erratic patterns of rainfall which cause drought and extended dry spells. Fluctuation in temperature and rainfall patterns affects livestock keeping through recurrent drought that has negative implications on pasture and water availability. Communities are responding to the changes through traditional response mechanisms and have embraced a few new adaptation strategies against these climate extremes, particularly drought. Generally, strategies for adaptation are likely to be successful in the near future, subject to review and harmonization of policies, institutional and legal frameworks to harness existing opportunities for management of natural resources for sustainable development and build the long-term balance between ecosystem integrity and human needs.
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Stojanov, Robert, and Ilan Kelman. "Local Expert Perceptions of Creeping Environmental Changes and Responses in Maldives." In IMISCOE Research Series. Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34194-6_12.
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AbstractFor the last several decades, low-elevation islands have been highlighted as being at the forefront of facing the impact of creeping environmental changes, notably from human-caused climate change. The islands’ low elevation, including in the Indian Ocean, has led to considering migration due to coastal erosion, sea-level rise, acidifying oceans, salinity intrusion, and changes in monsoon patterns and hence rainfall. Maldives is experiencing such creeping environmental changes which are often stated as being key factors affecting Maldivian society, livelihoods, and futures. Evidence from Maldivians, however, is that they perceive future sea-level rise to be a serious challenge at the national level, but rarely accept it as a local difficulty requiring action. Migration from their islands to other countries might be a potential option, especially when combined with other reasons for relocating, but they generally prefer to stay and adjust to all ongoing changes. Within this context, this paper reports field research from August 2013 in the capital Malé and nearby residential islands, using qualitative interviews with fifteen local experts. The results suggest that, besides a set of actually experienced changes, creeping environmental changes are perceived as being one of the important factors affecting Maldivian society and livelihoods. The results and interpretation, including in the context of major changes from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, identify some dissonance in understandings of possible impacts and resultant actions, in terms of recognising what might happen to the country yet not fully considering the action-related implications.
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Ito, Eriko, Satoru Miura, Michio Aoyama, and Koji Shichi. "Global Fallout: Radioactive Materials from Atmospheric Nuclear Tests That Fell Half a Century Ago and Where to Find Them." In Agricultural Implications of Fukushima Nuclear Accident (IV). Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9361-9_20.
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AbstractThe entire world was exposed to a global fallout of cesium-137 (137Cs-GFO) produced from the atmospheric nuclear weapon tests examined mainly in the 1950s and 1960s. Clarifying the residual status of 137Cs-GFO for an extended period (~50 years) after the fallout in Japan will provide strong evidence to predict the future of 137Cs emitted by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.Based on research conducted after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, the FDNPP-generated 137Cs fallout has been predicted to accumulate in the surface mineral soil and remain there for a long time. We questioned whether this insight could be applied to the FDNPP-generated 137Cs falling on forest soils in Japan. This is because the geographical features of forests in Japan are characterized by steep terrain and heavy rainfall, different from forests in the Northern European continent.To confirm the prediction, that is, the long-term persistence of 137Cs in forest soil, we explored the consequences of 137Cs-GFO in forested areas across Japan after half a century from the fallout deposition. We determined the amount of residual 137Cs-GFO in surface soils (0–30 cm depth) using the forest soil sample archives collected shortly before the FDNPP accident.The residual 137Cs-GFO in forest soils was not significantly different from the cumulative 137Cs-GFO obtained at observatories. We confirmed that most of the 137Cs-GFO remained within 30 cm of the soil surface even half a century after the fallout. However, the spatially heterogeneous 137Cs-GFO inventory within the forest was found to correspond to various vertical distribution patterns of 137Cs-GFO. The correspondence between the 137Cs-GFO inventory and the vertical distribution pattern indicates that the vertical distribution patterns resulted from active 137Cs-GFO-contaminated sediment migration in the forest over the past half-century and not due to differences in the vertical infiltration rate of 137Cs-GFO.Although most of the 137Cs-GFO was assumed to remain within the forest surface soil, the 137Cs-GFO inventory was considerably smaller than the cumulative deposition of 137Cs-GFO (79%). Regarding the destination of the missing 137Cs-GFO, in addition to sediment discharge into the water system, this study indicates the possibility of local storage of 137Cs-GFO in soils deeper than 30 cm in the forest.Forest management that reduces sediment redistribution on the forest floor would help prevent the FDNPP-generated 137Cs from flowing out of the forest.
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Ruth, Onkangi, David Lagat, and Ondari Lilian. "Linking Adaptation and Mitigation Toward a Resilient and Robust Infrastructure Sector in Kenya." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_141.
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AbstractSustainable city is an oxymoron to many especially in developing nations where the ever extending urban fabric has consequently degraded natural habitats, altered species composition, changed energy flows, and immensely affected biogeochemical cycles. This dims the vision of meeting the present needs with a nondecreasing level of well-being while not compromising that of the future generations to meet theirs. Nairobi as other cities in peer nations is associated with socioeconomic vulnerabilities as well as visible and “invisible” ecological problems such as pollution, climate change, spatial competition, dependency in natural capital use, and congestion. Nevertheless, this is uniquely both a problem and a solution.Nairobi has grown from a small railway station at the turn of the twentieth century to one of Africa’s largest cities. With this growth, comes an oversized ecological footprint and complex challenges of stresses and shocks. Infrastructure development in developing nations is gaining momentum. It is one of the development indicators and a major contributor to the GDP. However, it is very vulnerable financially and functionally to extreme weather events such as intense and prolonged periods of rainfall, inundation, low retreating rates of flood waters, increased temperatures, and unpredictable wind patterns. This study sought to establish the level of integration of adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in selected infrastructure projects. It further evaluates the performance of key action plans, projects, and efforts made to enhance resilience to climate change. The study supports the integration of broad investment flows instead of the project-by-project approach.
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Nciizah, Tendai, Elinah Nciizah, Caroline Mubekaphi, and Adornis D. Nciizah. "Role of Small Grains in Adapting to Climate Change: Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_254.
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AbstractClimate change has become one of the most profound threats to smallholder agriculture in semi-arid and arid areas. Farmers in this sector are especially vulnerable to climate change due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited access to capital and technology among other challenges. While several potential adaptation options exist, many barriers hinder effective adoption of these practices, hence production in marginal areas remains very low. This chapter discusses crop adaptation through the adoption of small grains in Zvishavane rural, a semi-arid area in Zimbabwe. Small grains are conducive in hot areas; their drought-tolerant nature enables them to thrive in marginal areas making them an appropriate strategy in responding to climate change. However, several production and policy challenges associated with small grain production hinder their adoption by farmers. In view of this, this chapter discusses the potential of small grains as an adaptation strategy to climate change in Zvishavane District, Zimbabwe, and addresses potential challenges and opportunities for increased adoption and future research. The review showed that farmers in Zvishavane have perceived climate change due to noticeable changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in the past years. Despite small grain production being the best strategy due to drought and high temperature tolerance, an insignificant number of Zvishavane farmers is involved in small grain production. This is due to numerous barriers such as high labor demand associated with small grain production, the challenge posed by the quelea birds, food preferences, low markets, and low extension services and government support. It is therefore necessary to encourage adoption of small grains by developing improved varieties, adoption of climate smart agricultural practices, improved technical support, and access to markets among other interventions.
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Murumkar, Asmita R., D. S. Arya, and M. M. Rahman. "Seasonal and Annual Variations of Rainfall Pattern in the Jamuneswari Basin, Bangladesh." In On a Sustainable Future of the Earth's Natural Resources. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32917-3_19.
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Beroya-Eitner, Mary Antonette A., May Celine T. M. Vicente, Julie Mae B. Dado, Marion Roel S. Dimain, Joel T. Maquiling, and Faye Abigail T. Cruz. "Climate Change as Modifier of Landslide Susceptibility: Case Study in Davao Oriental, Philippines." In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44296-4_12.
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AbstractRainfall-induced landslides are widely occurring phenomena that cause billions of US dollars annually in damage, and thousands of deaths globally. The Philippines, due to its climate, geographic location and topography, is among those countries most prone to the hazard. The strong climatic warming trend over the past decades has affected the rainfall pattern in the country, thus affecting the landslide distribution as well. This study aims to determine how the rainfall in our study area, Davao Oriental, is expected to change in the future in response to climate warming and how such a change may affect the landslide susceptibility pattern in the province. Results show that contrary to the general perception of increased landslide susceptibility due to a warming climate, a decreased susceptibility is anticipated in the study area. Despite this decrease, however, there remains high to very high landslide hazard for the northern part of the province well into the future, and risk reduction work is still needed in this area. Moreover, while the projected decrease in rainfall and landslide susceptibility is a positive sign concerning landslide hazard management, such a drying trend may spawn other hazards, including drought and water shortage, underscoring the need for a multi-hazard assessment that takes into account the complex interrelationships between different hazards. We deem the results of the study to be very important for better prioritization and more efficient allocation of resources for disaster risk management and reduction. The methodology developed for this study can be applied to other parts of the Philippines, and other regions as well.
Conference papers on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Abuzwidah, Muamer, Ahmed Elawady, Waleed Zeiada, et al. "Rainfall Change Projections under Different Climate Change Scenarios in UAE." In The 2nd International Conference on Civil Infrastructure and Construction. Qatar University Press, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.29117/cic.2023.0176.
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The increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities is predicted to have significant and lasting effects on the global climate throughout the 21st century. The resulting warming over the past decades has caused various hydrologic and landscape reactions, which may continue and accelerate without proper strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate changes due to greenhouse gases have been observed across the world, including in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Arabian Gulf region. Changes in precipitation patterns can have severe consequences for natural and human systems as precipitation is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. As the UAE is highly susceptible to climate change, it is necessary to investigate potential local impacts in-depth to develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation patterns in the UAE under different climate change scenarios, using statistically downscaled results from global climate models (GCMs) and considering two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study period ranges from 2021 to 2100 and compares it to the observed historical period of 1982 to 2011. The analysis examines precipitation changes at monthly and annual scales. Based on selected GCMs under the two RCPs, the average annual rainfall in the UAE is expected to change by -61% to 88%. This study emphasizes the importance of assessing potential impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns in vulnerable regions such as the UAE and the need to develop adaptation strategies to mitigate these potential impacts.
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Heshani, P. H. T. D., H. G. L. N. Gunawardhana, and J. Sirisena. "Incorporating rainfall projections into hydrological modeling for enhanced design hydrograph estimation." In Civil Engineering Research Symposium 2024. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.31705/cers.2024.26.
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In the context of changing climate conditions, the design of hydrographs faces increasing uncertainties due to shifts in precipitation patterns, hydrological regimes, and a rise in extreme weather events. This study assesses potential uncertainties in design hydrographs linked to future climate change in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka, focusing on the Ellagawa sub-basin. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) was selected based on a comprehensive literature review to account for anticipated changes in rainfall patterns and their impact on streamflow. Seven precipitation gauging stations (Alupolla, Balangoda, Galatura, Halwathura, Pussella, Ratnapura, and Wellandura) were chosen following World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidelines, based on data availability and percentages of missing data. Streamflow data for Ellagawa and Ratnapura stations were obtained from the Sri Lankan Irrigation Department, with daily precipitation and streamflow data from 1980 to 2017 used for analysis. The model was calibrated and validated using data from four extreme events identified through frequency analysis, each associated with daily precipitation levels corresponding to a 100-year return period. Future changes in precipitation extremes were evaluated using outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs): CNRM-CM6-1, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MRI-ESM2-0, under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), downscaled to local scale, focusing on the period from 2081-2100. The annual maximum daily precipitation for both observed and projected scenarios was analyzed using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Weibull, and Gamma distribution functions. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients, ranging from 0.79 to 0.85 during calibration and validation, indicated a close match between simulated and observed river flows. Different GCMs and SSPs predicted varying changes in rainfall regimes and design hydrographs. Specifically, factors such as the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall, and prolonged dry spells were identified as critical drivers affecting peak flow in the future. Compared to the baseline period (1980-2017), annual total rainfall is projected to increase by -8% to 40% under SSP2-4.5 and -10% to 36% under SSP5-8.5. The maximum daily precipitation is expected to rise from 79 mm to 139 mm under SSP2-4.5 and from 82 mm to 138 mm under SSP5-8.5. Consequently, the peak flow of the design hydrograph may increase by 3% to 106%. These findings underscore the importance of considering climate change uncertainties in hydrological and hydraulic design. By integrating future climate projections into design processes, engineers and policymakers can better adapt infrastructure and planning to evolve conditions, enhancing resilience and sustainability in water management systems.
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Zhong, Xian, Shidong Tu, Xianzheng Ma, Kui Jiang, Wenxin Huang, and Zheng Wang. "Rainy WCity: A Real Rainfall Dataset with Diverse Conditions for Semantic Driving Scene Understanding." In Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-22}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2022/243.
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Scene understanding in adverse weather conditions (e.g. rainy and foggy days) has drawn increasing attention, arising some specific benchmarks and algorithms. However, scene segmentation under rainy weather is still challenging and under-explored due to the following limitations on the datasets and methods: 1) Manually synthetic rainy samples with empirically settings and human subjective assumptions; 2) Limited rainy conditions, including the rain patterns, intensity, and degradation factors; 3) Separated training manners for image deraining and semantic segmentation. To break these limitations, we pioneer a real, comprehensive, and well-annotated scene understanding dataset under rainy weather, named Rainy WCity. It covers various rain patterns and their bring-in negative visual effects, covering wiper, droplet, reflection, refraction, shadow, windshield-blurring, etc. In addition, to alleviate dependence on paired training samples, we design an unsupervised contrastive learning network for real image deraining and the final rainy scene semantic segmentation via multi-task joint optimization. A comprehensive comparison analysis is also provided, which shows that scene understanding in rainy weather is a largely open problem. Finally, we summarize our general observations, identify open research challenges, and point out future directions.
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Bocheva, Lilia, Krastina Malcheva, and Hristo Chervenkov. "RECENT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN BULGARIA � BRIEF ANALYSIS." In 23rd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2023. STEF92 Technology, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2023/4.1/s19.41.
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The main goal of the analysis presented in the paper is to contribute to a clearer understanding of climate changes in Bulgaria, assessing the long-term changes in annual characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in the period 1961-2020 and providing climate projections to the end of the 21st century. During the last decades of the 20th century, a tendency towards warming occurred in Bulgaria. Since the 1990s, only four years have had negative temperature anomalies compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Changes in the precipitation regime are also apparent, with increasing frequency of days with both torrential rainfall and dry, hot weather. The analysis of future climate is focused on the projected changes under the four RCP climate change scenarios for selected ETCCDI climate indices, computed on a yearly basis: absolute maximum temperature (TXx), absolute minimum temperature (TNn), the maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD), the maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU), precipitation sum (RR), number of heavy precipitation days (RR10mm) and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The projected significant warming is manifested in the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of all considered temperature indicators. Despite the predicted decreasing precipitation trend, especially in Southeast Bulgaria, the changes are statistically significant only for scenario RCP8.5.
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Xekalakis, Georgios, Christos Anastasiou, Evi Riga, Giulio Zuccaro, and Petros Christou. "COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF FLOODS IN CYPRUS: EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE." In 23rd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2023. STEF92 Technology, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2023v/3.2/s12.08.
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Arid and semi-arid regions, including Cyprus, are increasingly experiencing severe weather events due to climate change. These events, characterized by prolonged droughts and flash floods, pose significant challenges to the environment, economy, and societal well-being. This paper aims to analyze the challenges of Flood Risk Management (FRM) in dry areas, focusing on Cyprus as a case study. It reviews historical data on temperature and rainfall patterns, flood types, and severity to propose effective, nature-based mitigation measures. The study examines temperature and rainfall trends over the last 30 years in Cyprus, categorizes floods since 1859 based on severity, and identifies prevalent flood types. The investigation reveals a decrease in annual rainfall and an increase in average temperatures in Cyprus, leading to heightened flood risks. The study categorizes floods into fluvial, pluvial, flash, and coastal types, with pluvial floods being the most common due to urbanization. The paper underscores the role of community and individual participation in adopting nature-based solutions such as permeable materials, rain gardens, tree planting, and roof gardens. Addressing flood risks in Cyprus requires a combined effort of government initiatives and community engagement. The adoption of sustainable, eco-friendly practices can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on flood hazards. This holistic approach is imperative for enhancing resilience against future climate-related challenges in Cyprus and similar arid regions.
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Manolache, Alexandra. "Study on the influence of climate change on agricultural crops." In Economic growth in the face of global challenges. Consolidation of national economies and reduction of social inequalities: International Scientific-Practical Conference, XVIIIth edition. National Institute for Economic Research, 2024. https://doi.org/10.36004/nier.cecg.ii.2024.18.36.
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Climate change is having a significant impact on agricultural production around the world, affecting crops, cultivated area and yield. These climate changes include changes in temperature and precipitation, extreme weather events, and changes in regional weather patterns. Climate change brings major challenges for agriculture, with a significant negative impact on farmland, productivity and food security. In this regard, it is necessary to adapt through sustainable agricultural practices, the use of advanced technologies and the implementation of climate risk management strategies, to support and improve agricultural production in a changing climate. Climate change is one of the most pressing global issues of our time. They are manifested by significant and long-lasting changes in weather patterns, global temperatures and the distribution of climatic phenomena. The virtual certainty that climate and CO2 will continue to develop in the future raises many questions about food security, one of which is whether the aggregate productivity of global agriculture will be affected. Climate change is not only affecting crop yields, but also the areas where they are grown. Extreme weather events such as storms, heat waves, and floods can damage crops and make certain areas unsuitable for farming. In addition, changes in rainfall and temperature regimes can lead to changes in the geographical distribution of crops, forcing farmers to adapt to new climatic conditions.
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Niksic, Matej, and Jernej Cervek. "Changed precipitation patterns and the need for a novel approach to building plot planning." In 55th ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Beyond Metropolis, Jakarta-Bogor, Indonesia. ISOCARP, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.47472/ywza7963.
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The events related to climate change are recently challenging the Slovenian urban planning. One of them are the floods in urbanised areas that call for a radically new approaches to how the urban built structure is organised and managed. The continental (and largest) part of Slovenia has a subalpine climate which has been traditionally characterised by a moderate precipitation throughout the year. This is now being changed as the larger amounts of water fall on the ground in a shorter period. As the current urban structure is not shaped in accordance with these new circumstances, parts of the cities are getting flooded more often. Some mitigation measures have been implemented, however to address the issue comprehensively new urban planning approaches are needed too. The paper will present one of the tools that has been developed within the endeavours of the national Ministry of Spatial Planning to reform the urban planning system to better reflect the changes posed by the climate change. It is related to the urban design criteria for building plots planning. To allow the rainfall to penetrate the soil as soon as the precipitation reaches the ground, new measures in organisation of the building plots will be provided. The current system defines the percentage of the built-up area within the plot but does not consider the permitted percentage of the paved open spaces (which do not allow the water to penetrate into the grounds), therefor it will be supplemented by the new measures based on the ability of the plots to allow the penetration of the water. The paper firstly presents the current system of building plots regulation within the Slovenian planning system. It then reports the results of the extensive analyses that focused on the existing characteristics of building plots for different building typologies across the country (housing, production, trade, public services) with the aim to map the state of the art in terms of the potential of the existing building plots to allow the water to flow into the grounds. The third part explains the methodological framework for the new approach to the building plots regulation. The last part presents the newly proposed approach and relates it to other urban design tools that need to support the implementation in practice. The concluding section relates the lessons learnt in Slovenian case to the similar situations elsewhere and stress the responsibilities that the urban planning and design have in providing future urban environments that will ensure the environmentally just living conditions for all.
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Zapata Posada, Dario, Jaime Hernán Aristizábal Ceballos, Julián Fernando Chaves Agudelo, and Milton Eduardo Pardo Romero. "Approach to Risk Management for the Hydrocarbon-Transport Infrastructure With Regard to Climate Change." In ASME 2015 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipg2015-8544.
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Planet Earth has recently witnessed a change in the behavior of climate variables (including temperature, rainfall, etc.), primarily attributed to global warming. This climate change is a threat that is materializing and has affected elements of the infrastructure, ecosystems, and environmental conditions worldwide, as well as the National Development Plans [“Planes Nacionales de Desarrollo”]. The hydrocarbon-transport infrastructure in Colombia has not escaped the effects of climate variability. Therefore, a strategy must be devised to manage the risk and to adapt these systems in the light of potential harmful effects, and also to supplement or improve the mitigation measures for the effects generated by the oil industry through its operations. Climate disturbances lead to an increase in the likelihood of landslides, wildfires, floods, avalanches, and other natural hazards. The major climate changes that have been identified and that may affect hydrocarbon-transfer systems in Colombia are the following ones: • A gradual increase in temperature. • Changes in the patterns and amounts of rainfall. • A rise in sea level. • An increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. The strategy for adapting the hydrocarbon-transport systems in light of climate change focuses primarily on the following points: 1. Acquiring more knowledge about the climatic changes that are expected to occur in Colombia, including the change in the major climatic variables and their georeferencing. 2. Diagnosing the transport systems and their spatial correlation with future climate scenarios. 3. Identifying the industries or elements of the infrastructure that are most vulnerable to the expected climatic changes. 4. Proposing measures that will add strength and/or resilience, so that the elements of the system can resist the effects of climate change, or overcome them within a short period of time, without affecting the Business. 5. Prioritizing the interventions to be performed at sites that are critical to the Business. 6. Monitoring and tracking the climatic variables in order to adjust the susceptibility models in light of the major impacts (e.g., landslides). The primary goal of this paper is to outline the initiative that has been proposed by the Technical Asset Management Bureau [“Gerencia Técnica de Activos”] (GTA) of Ecopetrol’s Office of the Vice President for Transportation and Logistics [“Vicepresidencia de Transporte y Logística”] (VIT Ecopetrol) in order to adapt the currently operating transport systems so that they can deal with climate change, while ensuring their healthful and safe operation, in compliance with the applicable technical legal requirements. Another goal of this paper is to highlight the advances that have been made by the GTA in the procurement, compilation, analysis, and use of climate information and geotechnical data as basic elements of risk management.
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Goyal, Shwena, Neetu Mittal, and Ajay Rana. "Analyzing Trend Probability and Risk Estimation of Rainfall Pattern over Maharashtra." In 2021 9th International Conference on Reliability, Infocom Technologies and Optimization (Trends and Future Directions) (ICRITO). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icrito51393.2021.9596217.
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Iyer, Shivram Balasubramaniam, Sharifah Norliza Syed Salim, and Mashitah Jais. "Cost to Decarbonise." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/216536-ms.
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Abstract Industrialization and economic growth has led to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), the major driver of climate change. As economies grow and industries expand, there may be a greater demand for energy, often met by burning fossil fuels. We are all seeing now how climate change is impacting us from rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and extreme weather events. Glaciers around the world are vanishing at an alarming rate. The disappearance of mountain glaciers is a visible manifestation of climate change. Glaciers in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, and other mountain ranges have been shrinking, impacting freshwater availability, ecosystems, and water resources for downstream communities. The ongoing loss of glaciers threatens water supplies, hydropower generation, agriculture, and tourism in these regions. In July 2019, Greenland experienced an unprecedented ice melt event, with approximately 90% of the ice sheet experiencing surface melting. The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes to global sea-level rise and implications for regional climate patterns.[1] An iceberg in Disko Bay, near Ilulissat, Greenland. The massive Greenland ice sheet shed a record amount of ice in 2019, ending a brief period of more moderate ice loss. Credit: NASA/Saskia Madlene In Dec 2021, we in Malaysia were hit hard by heavy rainfall and widespread floods, resulting in deaths, evacuations and damages. The country suffered RM6.5 billion in losses and 54 deaths due to the once in a century rainfall event.[2][3] In retrospect, modernization and technological advancements is also leading to more energy efficient processes and adoption of cleaner energy sources. The energy landscape is rapidly evolving, with a greater emphasis on renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, and electrification. Consumers, businesses, and investors are increasingly seeking low-carbon alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. Oil and gas operators need to adapt to this shift in market preferences and investor expectations to remain competitive. One way is to actively decarbonize the current operations. In this way, operators can position themselves as responsible and forward-thinking companies, meeting market demands, transition to a lower-carbon energy mix and ensure their long-term viability in a changing energy market. We are seeing today, Governments worldwide implementing stricter regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. Oil and gas operators need to adapt to these changing regulatory landscapes to ensure compliance and avoid penalties or potential restrictions on their operations. By embracing decarbonization strategies, such as reducing emissions and investing in cleaner technologies, operators can position themselves favourably within evolving regulatory frameworks. Demonstrating environmental responsibility and sustainability can enhance their reputation, build trust with stakeholders, and maintain a positive relationship with local communities and environmental organizations. Some of the approaches Oil and Gas Companies can implement in their strategies are on flaring and venting reductions, methane emission reduction, energy efficiency measures (Eg combining heat and power systems, or waste recovery), renewable energy integration, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), Research & Development of low carbon technologies, etc In summary, decarbonization is crucial for oil and gas operators to address climate change, comply with regulations, meet market demands, attract investment, diversify portfolios, and maintain a positive reputation. Embracing decarbonization efforts allows responsible operators to navigate the evolving energy landscape and position themselves for long-term success in a low-carbon future, thus contribute to global efforts to limit global warming and achieve climate targets. The objective in the end, by decarbonizing the economy and embracing sustainable development, societies can strive to achieve a balance between economic growth and environmental stewardship.
Reports on the topic "Future rainfall patterns"
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Barr, Robert, Laura Bowling, Kyuhyun Byun, et al. The Future of Indiana’s Water Resources: A Report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Purdue University, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317640.
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This report from the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) applies climate change projections for the state to explore how continued changes in Indiana’s climate are going to affect all aspects of water resources, including soil water, evaporation, runoff, snow cover, streamflow, drought, and flooding. As local temperatures continue to rise and rainfall patterns shift, managing the multiple water needs of communities, natural systems, recreation, industry, and agriculture will become increasingly difficult. Ensuring that enough water is available in the right places and at the right times will require awareness of Indiana’s changing water resources and planning at regional and state levels.
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Ward, Jade, and Jonathan Wentworth. Water supply resilience and climate change. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.58248/pb40.
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The resilience of water supplies and the water environment to climate change and the impacts of drought are areas of concern for the UK. Definitions of resilience vary, but in this POSTbrief it is the ability of the water supply system to recover from shocks. Projected changes in weather patterns and climate (increased temperatures and greater variability in rainfall) will reduce water availability. Increased water demand due to population growth means that, without action, water shortages could occur in future. These will impact the environment, society and the economy.
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Mutabazi, Khamaldin, and Gideon Boniface. Commercialisation Pathways and Climate Change: The Case of Smallholder Farmers in Semi-Arid Tanzania. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/apra.2021.046.
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The semi-arid drylands of central Tanzania have been characterised by low and erratic rainfall coupled with high evapotranspiration. Up until now, farmers of these local dryland farming systems have been able to cope with these climate conditions. However, climate change has led to new weather patterns that overwhelm traditional dryland farming practices and re-shape farmers’ commercialisation pathways. This paper explored the pathways in which smallholder farmers in Singida region in Tanzania engage with markets and commercialise in the face of climate change. The paper also examined how farm-level decisions on commercial crops and the commercialisation pathways they are part of, affect current and future resilience to climate change. Climate resilient commercialisation of smallholder dryland agriculture remains the centrepiece of inclusive sustainable development.
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Morsy, Amr, and Emma Varela. Evaluation of Long-Term Performance of Transportation Earthworks Prone to Weather-Driven Deterioration Under Changing Climate. Mineta Transportation Institute, 2025. https://doi.org/10.31979/mti.2025.2438.
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Embankments are key transportation infrastructure features providing essential support for long, linear stretches of transportation infrastructure, including highways and railways, in California and globally. Clay embankments are susceptible to weather-related deterioration processes that can gradually compromise their stability and, in some cases, lead to unexpected failures. Climate change, along with the associated shifts in weather patterns, is projected to adversely impact weather-related deterioration processes, leading to exacerbated failures and/or shorter service life. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on the rate of weather-driven deterioration of embankments in two locations in California: Los Angeles and Sacramento. Specifically, a multi-phase hydromechanical geotechnical model was developed for an exemplar clay embankment. The model is capable of simulating long-term performance of an embankment subject to a climate-controlled flux boundary. The model was used to perform numerical simulations where temperature and rainfall levels were adjusted to reflect four possible future climate change scenarios: Case (1) no average temperature or average precipitation changes; Case (2) +3℃ average temperature change and –12.5% average precipitation change; Case (3) +3℃average temperature change and no average precipitation change; and Case (4) +3℃ average temperature change and +12.5% average precipitation change. Performance indicators were obtained from the numerical simulations to compare the effect of climate change in Los Angeles and Sacramento. It was concluded that climate change is generally projected to adversely affect the long-term performance of clay embankments, which can put critical transportation infrastructure and the communities that depend on it at risk.
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Chiang, John C. H., and Michael F. Wehner. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall". Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1053805.
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