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Journal articles on the topic 'Future rainfall patterns'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2025

Last updated: 1 August 2025

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1

Tayşi, H., and M. Özger. "Disaggregation of future GCMs to generate IDF curves for the assessment of urban floods." Journal of Water and Climate Change 13, no. 2 (2021): 684–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.241.

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Abstract Urbanization and industrialization cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn causes changes in the atmosphere. Climate change is causing extreme rainfalls and these rainfalls are getting stronger day after day. Floods are threatening urban areas, and short-duration rainfall and outdated drainages are responsible for urban floods. Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves are crucial for both drainage system design and assessment of flood risk. Once IDF curves are determined from historical data, they are assumed to be stationary. However, IDF curves must be non-stat

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Sartorius von Bach, H. J., and K. M. Kalundu. "Estimating the Rainfall Patterns in Namibia: Are rainfall patterns a myth or fact?" Namibian Journal for Research, Science and Technology 2, no. 1 (2020): 101–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.54421/njrst.v2i1.23.

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Rainfall is generally regarded as the key driver for ecosystem processes, particularly important within the dynamics of semi-arid regions. Since the precipitation impacts the natural environment, human society and the economy, the paper applied rainfall forecasting to avail early warning patterns. The Waterberg rainfall data from 1895 to 2019 was used to determine a better understanding of its pattern. This is necessitated because knowledge of rainfall patterns are required for reviewing production targets and a necessity for decision making in agriculture. Data shows that only 34% of the rain

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Schultz, Colin. "Using regional wind-inducing circulation patterns to estimate future rainfall." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 92, no. 48 (2011): 452. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011eo480017.

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Riquetti, Nelva B., Carlos R. Mello, Samuel Beskow, and Marcelo R. Viola. "Rainfall erosivity in South America: Current patterns and future perspectives." Science of The Total Environment 724 (July 2020): 138315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138315.

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Maichandee, Supanee, Prachaya Namwong, and Onuma Methakeson. "Impacts of Climate Change and Regional Variations on Future Rainfall Patterns in Thailand by Downscaling Method." ASEAN Journal of Scientific and Technological Reports 27, no. 1 (2023): 80–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.55164/ajstr.v27i1.250817.

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In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns in Thailand using the downscaling method. The simulation data was obtained from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, using the Community Earth System Model (CCSM) as a boundary condition. The characteristics of rainfall were analyzed in terms of the total annual rainfall, rainfall intensity, the number of days with heavy rain, and the total amount of rainfall in each season in the future compared to the base periods. It was found that the simulation of the climate in upper Thailand was consistent wit

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Nayak, Sridhara. "Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments." Climate 11, no. 5 (2023): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli11050094.

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We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951–1980 and 1981–2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051–2080 and 2081–2110). Our analysis found that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951–2010, which is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitati

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Yeo, Myeong-Ho, James Pangelinan, and Romina King. "Identifying Characteristics of Guam’s Extreme Rainfalls Prior to Climate Change Assessment." Water 14, no. 10 (2022): 1578. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14101578.

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Extreme rainfall and its consequential flooding account for a devastating amount of damage to the Pacific Islands. Having an improved understanding of extreme rainfall patterns can better inform stormwater managers about current and future flooding scenarios, so they can minimize potential damages and disruptions. In this study, the scaling invariant properties of annual maximum precipitations (AMPs) are used for describing the regional patterns of extreme rainfalls over Guam. AMPs are calculated at seven stations in Guam and exhibit distinct simple scaling behavior for two different time fram

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Munir, Agus Qomaruddin, and Heru Ismanto. "RAINFALL PREDICTION USING SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM APPROACH." JITK (Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Teknologi Komputer) 9, no. 1 (2023): 30–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.33480/jitk.v9i1.4180.

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Rainfall is one indicator to determine the estimated adequacy of groundwater on agricultural land. The groundwater availability produced by rain can determine cropping patterns in an area. The availability of rainfall data depends on the accuracy of information on current climate conditions. This case causes the related parties to find difficulty determining the classification of cropping patterns in the future. Accurate rainfall prediction models are needed to overcome the problem of shifting rain patterns. Rainfall prediction models in determining cropping patterns are recommended by FAO, su

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Desai, V. P., R. K. Kamat, and K. S. Oza. "Rainfall Modeling and Prediction using Neural Networks: A Case Study of Maharashtra." Disaster Advances 15, no. 3 (2022): 39–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1503da3943.

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In different parts of the globe, accurate rainfall forecasting models are needed to forecast rainfall in real-time during the typhoon season to prevent disasters caused by heavy rainfall in the region. The current study developed a time series based analysis technique to predict precipitation during the monsoon season. As evidenced by the investigations in this study, a data-driven technique has considerable scope for predicting the future variables and patterns from existing data, mainly when applied to complex and challenging natural phenomena such as rainfall. The ANN-based technique has an

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Sravani, A., N. Sujatha, L. V. Rao, and V. Lakshmana Rao. "Analysis of Historical and Future Rainfall Projections in India's Lower Godavari Basin." International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14, no. 2 (2024): 771–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i23988.

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Changes in evaporation and precipitation in the climate are precursors to changes in the water cycle due to the increase in temperatures due to climate change. In recent years, enormous changes in precipitation patterns have led to an increase in extreme rainfall events, reflecting flash floods in smaller areas. To understand this, you must study the rainfall patterns of the district and the smaller watersheds. In the present study, we have observed the trend of rainfall in the lower Godavari basin, which was part of the Godavari River from 1970 to 2019, using IMD 0.25X0.25 ° gridded rainfall

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Li, Yun, and Ian Smith. "A Statistical Downscaling Model for Southern Australia Winter Rainfall." Journal of Climate 22, no. 5 (2009): 1142–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2160.1.

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Abstract A technique for obtaining downscaled rainfall projections from climate model simulations is described. This technique makes use of the close association between mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns and rainfall over southern Australia during winter. Principal components of seasonal mean MSLP anomalies are linked to observed rainfall anomalies at regional, gridpoint, and point scales. A maximum of four components is sufficient to capture a relatively large fraction of the observed variance in rainfall at most locations. These are used to interpret the MSLP patterns from a single cli

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Akumaga, Uvirkaa, and Aondover Tarhule. "Projected Changes in Intra-Season Rainfall Characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa." Atmosphere 9, no. 12 (2018): 497. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120497.

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The magnitude and timing of seasonal rainfall is vitally important to the health and vitality of key agro-ecological and social-economic systems of the Niger River Basin. Given this unique context, knowledge concerning how climate change is likely to impact future rainfall characteristics and patterns is critically needed for adaptation and mitigation planning. Using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP—Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenarios at the mid-future time period, 2021/2025-2050 from the Coordinated Regional Clima

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Al-Muhyi, ِAbdul Haleem, Faez Younis Aleedani, Munaf Qasim Albattat, and Jamila Mohammed Badr. "Rainfall Repercussions: Assessing Climate Change Influence on Iraq Precipitation Patterns." Al-Kitab Journal for Pure Sciences 8, no. 01 (2024): 92–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.32441/kjps.08.01.p9.

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The unequal spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, exacerbated by climate change, has received significant attention. Rainfall is pivotal for crop growth and environmental health, crucial in the water cycle, and essential to replenishing surface water sources vital for drinking water supplies. Consequently, understanding this phenomenon is critical for future planning. Evaluating spatial and temporal variations in rainfall is essential for the effective management of water resources. This study employs a statistical analysis of rainfall data from 16 rain gauge stations to identify

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Korecha, Diriba, and Anthony G. Barnston. "Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 2 (2007): 628–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3304.1.

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Abstract In much of Ethiopia, similar to the Sahelian countries to its west, rainfall from June to September contributes the majority of the annual total, and is crucial to Ethiopia’s water resource and agriculture operations. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. This study examines the predictive potential for June–September rainfall in Ethiopia using mainly statistical approaches. The skill of a dynamical approach to predicting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which impacts Ethiopian

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Jannah, Miftahul, Joko Sujono, and Adam Pamudji Raharjdo. "KAJIAN PERUBAHAN IKLIM DI DKI JAKARTA BERDASARKAN DATA CURAH HUJAN." Teknisia 28, no. 1 (2023): 44–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.20885/teknisia.vol28.iss1.art5.

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A common annual problem that often occurs in DKI Jakarta is flooding. Extreme rainfall is one of the most dominant factors that trigger flooding in DKI Jakarta. Global warming causes climate change and rainfall characteristics. This study aims to understand the characteristics of the climate rainfall in DKI Jakarta at this time and the potential for changes in the future. In this study, the characteristics of rainfall which is analyzed were rainfall variabilities such as annual rainfall, maximum rainfall, and the number of rainy days as indicated by analysis of rainfall trends or the tendency

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Park, Chang-Kyun, Minhee Chang, Chang-Hoi Ho, Kyung-Ja Ha, Jinwon Kim, and Byung-Ju Sohn. "Two Types of Diurnal Variations in Heavy Rainfall during July over Korea." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 38, no. 12 (2021): 2201–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1178-8.

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AbstractThis study examined the characteristics of the diurnal variations of heavy rainfall (⩾110 mm in 12 hours) in Korea and the related atmospheric circulation for July from 1980–2020. During the analysis period, two dominant pattens of diurnal variation of the heavy rainfall emerged: all-day heavy rainfall (AD) and morning only heavy rainfall (MO) types. For the AD-type, the heavy rainfall is caused by abundant moisture content in conjunction with active convection in the morning (0000–1200, LST; LST = UTC + 9) and the afternoon hours (1200–2400 LST). These systems are related to the enhan

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Wu, Minchao, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, et al. "Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change." Earth System Dynamics 7, no. 3 (2016): 627–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016.

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Abstract. Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive ve

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Ma, Jian, and Shang-Ping Xie. "Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*." Journal of Climate 26, no. 8 (2013): 2482–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00283.1.

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Abstract Precipitation change in response to global warming has profound impacts on environment for life but is highly uncertain. Effects of sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the response of rainfall and atmospheric overturning circulation are investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. The SST warming is decomposed into a spatially uniform SST increase (SUSI) and deviations from it. The SST pattern effect is found to be important in explaining both the multimodel ensemble mean distribution and intermodel variability of rainfall change over tropical oceans. In

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Sharma, Manu Raj, and Sukeshi Priya. "Long-term Assessment of Precipitation Behaviour in Bihar (1901-2021): Patterns, Trends and Observed Variability." Current World Environment 18, no. 2 (2023): 662–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/cwe.18.2.19.

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Rainfall is an important variable that governs the climate and hydrological conditions of any region. During the past century, an increase in global emissions of greenhouse gases has caused changes in the patterns of hydro-meteorological conditions across the world. It has resulted in changed patterns and trends of rainfall, causing episodic occurrences of droughts and floods. This increasing variability of rainfall has triggered and intensified extreme events that pose potential future risks under different climate change scenarios. This projected variability may induce drastic changes in the

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20

Gernowo, Rahmat, and Muhamad Irham Nurwidyanto. "The FLOOD DISASTER MANAGEMENT BASED ON EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL IN DECADES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA." International Journal of Engineering Science Technologies 5, no. 2 (2021): 124–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/ijoest.v5.i2.2021.177.

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Indonesia's climate classification is divided into three rainfall patterns. The three patterns are Seasonal Pattern, Equatorial Pattern, and Local Pattern (Anti Seasonal). Flood Disaster Management based on extreme rainfall is very much needed, as the analysis was taken as a case study on January 22, 2019, a flood disaster occurred in South Sulawesi. The flood event indicated that there was heavy rain that flushed the South Sulawesi region for several days, which is classified as monsoonal rainfall. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of heavy rain with atmospheric anomalies during

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Hanifa, Risyda, and Joko Wiratmo. "ENSO and IOD Influence on Extreme Rainfall in Indonesia: Historical and Future Analysis." Agromet 38, no. 2 (2024): 78–87. https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.38.2.78-87.

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Indonesia, as a maritime continent, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods and landslides due to extreme rainfall. This study aims to identify changes in the influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall across Indonesia, specifically during the September-October-November period. We used rainfall and sea surface temperature data from the CMIP6 climate model for the historical period (1985-2014), near-future (2031-2060), and far-future (2061-2090) projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 climate scenarios. The relation between rainfall dan ENSO/IOD was simply defined by linear

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Toze, Simon. "Water sustainability: future directions." Microbiology Australia 30, no. 1 (2009): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ma09004.

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Water sustainability: future directions Whether you?re a believer or a sceptic about global warming and the influence of human activity on the climate, there is little argument about the current impact of drought and changing rainfall patterns on Australia. The Australian community is coming to grips with the fact that we need to be cleverer on how we use water. This has resulted in a significant increase in interest about water sustainability and has increased demands on governments at all levels to improve water usage and efficiency.

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Sittichok, Ketvara, Jutithep Vongphet, and Ousmane Seidou. "Predicted Rainfall, Surface Runoff and Water Yield Responses to Climate Change in the Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand." Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution 19, no. 3 (2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/ajw220033.

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Expected changes in temperature, rainfall, water yield and surface runoff dynamics under RCP 8.5 were estimated in the Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand, using outputs of five regional climate models. Observed temperatures and precipitations were downscaled using a combination of quantile mapping and nearest neighbour methods. The SWAT model was used to estimate changes in hydroclimatic variables in both the near-term (2006-2050) and long-term (2051-2099) temporal frames. All models predicted higher temperatures in the future (28.7-30.4°C) compared to the historical situation (28.0-28.3°C). Th

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Schattman, Rachel E., Alicyn Smart, Sean Birkel, Haley Jean, Kallol Barai, and Yong-Jiang Zhang. "Strawberry Growth under Current and Future Rainfall Scenarios." Water 14, no. 3 (2022): 313. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14030313.

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Globally, the changing and interacting effects of temperature and precipitation are anticipated to influence the fitness of specialty crops. Strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa) is an important crop in the Northeastern United States. In this study, four plausible precipitation scenarios were developed to be representative of current and future growing season precipitation patterns. Using a precipitation simulator, we tested these scenarios on potted-day-neutral strawberries. This study generated four primary results. (1) Though some treatments received different amounts of precipitation, little di

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Samat, S. R., N. Othman, and N. F. M. Zaidi. "The Development of Rainfall Temporal Pattern for Kuantan River Basin." International Journal of Engineering Technology and Sciences 5, no. 2 (2018): 14–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.15282/ijets.v5i2.1376.

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One of the design rainfall event used in flood estimation is rainfall temporal pattern that gives the proportion of total rainfall in different periods within a given duration. The study focuses on developing a temporal rainfall pattern for the Kuantan River Basin in Pahang. According to Urban Stormwater Manual Second Edition (MSMA 2) that used as guideline for designing stormwater in Malaysia, rainfall temporal patterns are divided by region. In this study, the developments of rainfall temporal pattern in Kuantan River Basin are based specifically on rainfall station in this river basin. The

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Hettiarachchi, Suresh, Conrad Wasko, and Ashish Sharma. "Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed – the role of storm temporal patterns." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 3 (2018): 2041–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018.

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Abstract. The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result

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van der Meij, W. Marijn, Arnaud J. A. M. Temme, Jakob Wallinga, and Michael Sommer. "Modeling soil and landscape evolution – the effect of rainfall and land-use change on soil and landscape patterns." SOIL 6, no. 2 (2020): 337–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soil-6-337-2020.

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Abstract. Humans have substantially altered soil and landscape patterns and properties due to agricultural use, with severe impacts on biodiversity, carbon sequestration and food security. These impacts are difficult to quantify, because we lack data on long-term changes in soils in natural and agricultural settings and available simulation methods are not suitable for reliably predicting future development of soils under projected changes in climate and land management. To help overcome these challenges, we developed the HydroLorica soil–landscape evolution model that simulates soil developme

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Misiani, Herbert O., Declan L. Finney, Zewdu T. Segele, et al. "Circulation Patterns Associated with Current and Future Rainfall over Ethiopia and South Sudan from a Convection-Permitting Model." Atmosphere 11, no. 12 (2020): 1352. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121352.

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Ethiopia and South Sudan contain several population centers and important ecosystems that depend on July–August rainfall. Here we use two models to understand current and future rainfall: the first ever pan-African numerical model of climate change with explicit convection and a parameterized model that resembles a typical regional climate model at 4.5 and 25 km horizontal grid-spacing, respectively. The explicit convection and higher resolution of the first model offer a greatly improved representation of both the frequency and intensity of rainfall, when compared to the parametrized convecti

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Canham, Haley A., Belize Lane, Colin B. Phillips, and Brendan P. Murphy. "Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 29, no. 1 (2025): 27–43. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-27-2025.

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Abstract. Increasing watershed disturbance regimes, such as from wildfire, are a growing concern for natural resource managers. However, the influence of watershed disturbances on event-scale rainfall–runoff patterns has proved challenging to disentangle from other hydrologic controls. To better isolate watershed disturbance effects, this study evaluates the influence of several time-varying hydrologic controls on event-scale rainfall–runoff patterns, including water year type, seasonality, and antecedent precipitation. To accomplish this, we developed the Rainfall–Runoff Event Detection and I

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Khardekar, Praneta, Rohini Lakshman Bhawar, Vinay Kumar, and Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari. "Future Projections of Clouds and Precipitation Patterns in South Asia: Insights from CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Under SSP5 Scenarios." Climate 13, no. 2 (2025): 36. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13020036.

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Projecting future changes in monsoon rainfall is crucial for effective water resource management, food security, and livestock sustainability in South Asia. This study assesses precipitation, total cloud cover (categorized by cloud top pressure), and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) across the region using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. A multi-model ensemble (MME) approach is employed to analyze future projections under the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenario, which assumes radiative forcing will reach 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. The MME projects a ~1.5 mm/da

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Abu Bakar, Siti Nurhidayu, Fadhil Farhan Jafrei, and Sang Yanfang. "Impacts of Rainfall Variability on Water Quality Parameters in the Setiu River, Malaysia." Frontiers in Water and Environment 6, no. 1 (2025): 13–31. https://doi.org/10.37934/fwe.6.1.1331.

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Water quality status serves as an essential indicator of the river’s health and its capacity for beneficial uses, reflecting changes in physical, chemical, and biological factors that are often sensitive to both natural and anthropogenic influences. The Setiu River in Terengganu faces an increasingly critical challenge in understanding the complex relationship between rainfall patterns and water quality dynamics. This study chooses the Setiu River as a case study and aims to address three primary objectives to gain insights into these dynamics: firstly, to examine the relationship between rain

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Trinugroho, Muchamad Wahyu, Sigit Supadmo Arif, Sahid Susanto, Bayu Dwi Apri Nugroho, and Abi Prabowo. "Changes in Rainfall Pattern in Bengawan Solo Sub-Watershed." SAINS TANAH - Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology 19, no. 2 (2022): 249. http://dx.doi.org/10.20961/stjssa.v19i2.61640.

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<p>Rainfed farming is vulnerable to climate variability, which changes rainfall patterns. Rainfall variability disrupts rainfed rice cultivation because a change in rainfall will affect the rice crop calendar. An analysis of long-term trends over a specific area is required to understand rainfall variability. The aim of this study was to assess climate variability in terms of rainfall magnitude and frequency by analyzing spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Bengawan Solo Sub-Watershed as well as the rainfed rice production. Daily rainfall data from 10 rain gauge stations over the sub-

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Tataw, J. Tabi, R. Hall, E. Ziss, et al. "Soil types will alter the response of arable agroecosystems to future rainfall patterns." Annals of Applied Biology 164, no. 1 (2013): 35–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/aab.12072.

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Zhu, Jianting, Mark C. Stone, and William Forsee. "Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships for six regions in the United States." Journal of Water and Climate Change 3, no. 3 (2012): 185–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2012.045.

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Potential changes in climate are expected to lead to future changes in the characteristics of precipitation events, including extreme rainfall intensity in most regions. In order for government agencies and design engineers to incorporate these trends and future changes into assessment and design processes, tools for planning and design should be capable of considering nonstationary climate conditions. In this work, potential changes are investigated in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, which are often used for assessment of extreme rainfall events, using historic data and future clim

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Gorton, Amanda J., Peter Tiffin, and David A. Moeller. "Does adaptation to historical climate shape plant responses to future rainfall patterns? A rainfall manipulation experiment with common ragweed." Oecologia 190, no. 4 (2019): 941–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04463-4.

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Nam, Do Hoai, Keiko Udo, and Akira Mano. "Assessment of future flood intensification in Central Vietnam using a super-high-resolution climate model output." Journal of Water and Climate Change 4, no. 4 (2013): 373–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2013.088.

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This paper presents an assessment of the changes in future floods. The ranked area-average heavy daily rainfall amounts simulated by a super-high-resolution (20 km mesh) global climate model output are corrected with consideration of the effects of the topography on heavy rainfall patterns and used as a basis to model design storm hyetographs. The rainfall data are then used as the input for a nearly calibration-free parameter rainfall–runoff model to simulate floods in the future climate (2075–2099) at the Upper Thu Bon River basin in Central Vietnam. The results show that although the future

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Wang, Bin, Chunhan Jin, and Jian Liu. "Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models." Journal of Climate 33, no. 15 (2020): 6471–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0993.1.

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AbstractProjecting future change of monsoon rainfall is essential for water resource management, food security, disaster mitigation, and infrastructure planning. Here we assess the future change and explore the causes of the changes using 15 models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble projects that, under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, the total land monsoon rainfall will likely increase in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) by about 2.8% per one degree Celsius of global warming (2.8% °C−1) in contrast to little cha

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Wang, Yanli, Xinrong Li, Lichao Liu, Jiecai Zhao, and Jingyao Sun. "Life history response of Echinops gmelinii Turcz. to variation in the rainfall pattern in a temperate desert." PeerJ 7 (November 29, 2019): e8159. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8159.

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Background Current and future changes in rainfall amount and frequency may particularly impact annual plants in desert ecosystems. The winter annual Echinops gmelinii Turcz. is widely distributed in the desert habitats of northern China and is a dominant pioneer annual plant following sand stabilization in the Tengger Desert. This species plays a vital role in dune stabilization during spring and early summer, when wind erosion is the most severe and frequent. However, seedling emergence and regeneration in sandy soil are mainly determined by rainfall patterns. Therefore, understanding the lif

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Durão, R., M. J. Pereira, A. C. Costa, J. M. Côrte-Real, and A. Soares. "Indices of precipitation extremes in Southern Portugal – a geostatistical approach." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, no. 1 (2009): 241–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-241-2009.

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Abstract. Most of the actual studies and previews of future rainfall patterns, based on past observed records for Mediterranean climate areas, focus on the decline of the rainfall amounts over the years, and also on the increase of the frequency of heavy/intense rainfall events particularly in the winter season. These changes in heavy rainfall events may have severe implications and impacts on soil erosion resulting in increased soil degradation risks. The objective of the present work is to evaluate the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events in Southern Portugal, using a geostat

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Grose, Michael R., Jonas Bhend, Sugata Narsey, Alex Sen Gupta, and Josephine R. Brown. "Can We Constrain CMIP5 Rainfall Projections in the Tropical Pacific Based on Surface Warming Patterns?*." Journal of Climate 27, no. 24 (2014): 9123–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00190.1.

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Abstract Climate warming has large implications for rainfall patterns, and identifying the most plausible pattern of rainfall change over the next century among various model projections would be valuable for future planning. The spatial pattern of projected sea surface temperature change has a key influence on rainfall changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here it is shown that simple indices of the size of the equatorial peak in the spatial pattern of warming and to a lesser extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming are useful for classifying the surface temperature change in different mo

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Kyojo, Erick A., Silas S. Mirau, Sarah E. Osima, and Verdiana G. Masanja. "Frequentist and Bayesian Approaches in Modeling and Prediction of Extreme Rainfall Series: A Case Study from Southern Highlands Region of Tanzania." Advances in Meteorology 2024 (January 30, 2024): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2024/8533930.

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This study focuses on modeling and predicting extreme rainfall based on data from the Southern Highlands region, the critical for rain-fed agriculture in Tanzania. Analyzing 31 years of annual maximum rainfall data spanning from 1990 to 2020, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model proved to be the best for modeling extreme rainfall in all stations. Three estimation methods–L-moments, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)–were employed to estimate GEV parameters and future return levels. The Bayesian MCMC approach demonstrated superior performance

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Ch, Preethi, Meena A, Rathod S, and Balaji naik B. "Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Mahabubnagar District of Telangana State, India." International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14, no. 8 (2024): 502–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i84370.

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This study aimed to analyze the trend analysis of long-term monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns in Mahabubnagar district, Telangana state. Monthly rainfall data from January 1980 to December 2023 was collected from the IMD website. The linear regression trend line and non-parametric tests, such as the Mann-Kendall test, Modified Mann-Kendall test and Innovative Trend Analysis tests were used to understand the trends in the rainfall data. The Wallis and Moore test was applied to assess the randomness of the rainfall data. The linear regression trend method revealed both increasing an

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Tang, Qianyu, Zhiyuan Fu, Yike Ma, et al. "Partitioning of Heavy Rainfall in the Taihang Mountains and Its Response to Atmospheric Circulation Factors." Water 16, no. 21 (2024): 3134. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16213134.

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The spatial and temporal distribution of heavy rainfall across the Taihang Mountains exhibits significant variation. Due to the region’s unstable geological conditions, frequent heavy rainfall events can lead to secondary disasters such as landslides, debris flows, and floods, thus intensifying both the frequency and severity of extreme events. Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of heavy rainfall and its response to atmospheric circulation patterns is crucial for effective disaster prevention and mitigation. This study utilized daily precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations i

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Leong, Marieanne Christie, Min Fui Tom Ngui, and Janice Lynn Ayog. "Assessment on future rainfall variability for adaptive water resource management in Sabah." BIO Web of Conferences 131 (2024): 05012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202413105012.

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Climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the increasing demands of the growing population will place further pressures on the climate and environment. Water infrastructures such as water treatment plants often face increased stress during extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or prolonged drought, disrupting societal needs and prompt urgent upgrades to adapt to the changing climate. The use of climate model projections is increasingly adopted in engineering practices for assessing climate risks and impacts to inform adaptive design and strategy of new infrastructures or upgrad

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Mukamana, Sandra Gisele. "Understanding Climate Variability and Malaria Transmission in West Africa: Case Studies, Regional Insights, and Future Directions." Research Output Journal of Biological and Applied Science 4, no. 1 (2024): 38–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.59298/rojbas/2024/413844.

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Climate variability plays a crucial role in malaria transmission in West Africa. Variable temperature, rainfall, and humidity patterns in diverse climatic zones, such as tropical rainforests and semi-arid regions, significantly influence mosquito breeding sites and transmission rates. Tropical rainforests experience high transmission rates due to consistent rainfall and humidity, while savanna regions experience seasonal peaks. Semi-arid regions with limited rainfall and extreme temperatures show lower but variable transmission rates. Temperature fluctuations affect the development and surviva

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PATIL, R. H., M. LAEGDSMAND, J. E. OLESEN, and J. R. PORTER. "Growth and yield response of winter wheat to soil warming and rainfall patterns." Journal of Agricultural Science 148, no. 5 (2010): 553–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021859610000419.

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SUMMARYIt is predicted that climate change will increase not only seasonal air and soil temperatures in northern Europe but also the variability of rainfall patterns. This may influence temporal soil moisture regimes and the growth and yield of winter wheat. A lysimeter experiment was carried out in 2008/09 with three factors: rainfall amount, rainfall frequency and soil warming (two levels in each factor), on sandy loam soil in Denmark. The soil warming treatment included non-heated as the control and an increase in soil temperature by 5°C at 100 mm depth as heated. The rainfall treatment inc

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Melanwati, Rinda Lolita, Eni Sumarminingsih, and Henny Pramoedyo. "Reconstruction of Rainfall Patterns with the SpVAR Method: Spatial Analysis in DKI Jakarta." Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA 9, no. 12 (2023): 10909–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.29303/jppipa.v9i12.4895.

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Unexpected rainfall is often a challenge for urban areas such as DKI Jakarta. Therefore, this study aims to establish a Spatial Vector Autoregressive (SpVAR) model to analyze rainfall data in DKI Jakarta from 2017 to 2021. This study used three endogenous variables: the amount of rainfall, air temperature and humidity. The use of the SpVAR method with uniform spatial weighting in the DKI Jakarta area was chosen to provide an initial picture of the potential for spatial interactions between various locations in a complex climate context. This method provides valuable insight into the possibilit

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Researcher. "ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND USING NON PARAMETRIC METHODS FOR WATERSHEDS OF BENGALURU URBAN AREA." International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) 15, no. 4 (2024): 1727. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14527089.

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Rainfall plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle, and changes in its patterns directly impact water resources. These alterations affect hydrological properties and soil characteristics. Analyzing rainfall trends is essential for understanding the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. Numerous studies have investigated rainfall trends at regional and national levels, providing valuable insights into future changes. This study examines 43 years (1980-2022) of rainfall data in Bangalore Urban using the Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator tests. The

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Rashiq, Ahmad, Vishwajeet Kumar, and Om Prakash. "A Spatiotemporal Assessment of the Precipitation Variability and Pattern, and an Evaluation of the Predictive Reliability, of Global Climate Models over Bihar." Hydrology 11, no. 4 (2024): 50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11040050.

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Climate change is significantly altering precipitation patterns, leading to spatiotemporal changes throughout the world. In particular, the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, leading to heavy rainfall, floods, and droughts, have been a cause of concern. A comprehensive understanding of these changes in precipitation patterns on a regional scale is essential to enhance resilience against the adverse effects of climate change. The present study, focused on the state of Bihar in India, uses a long-term (1901–2020) gridded precipitation dataset to analyze the effect of cl

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Robinson, Joe D., Farshid Vahedifard, and Amir AghaKouchak. "Rainfall-triggered slope instabilities under a changing climate: comparative study using historical and projected precipitation extremes." Canadian Geotechnical Journal 54, no. 1 (2017): 117–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2015-0602.

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This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of extreme precipitation events under current and future climate scenarios on landslides. Rainfall-triggered landslides are analyzed primarily using extreme precipitation estimates, derived using the so-called stationary assumption (i.e., statistics of extreme events will not vary significantly over a long period of time). However, extreme precipitation patterns have shown to vary substantially due to climate change, leading to unprecedented changes in the statistics of extremes. In this study, a nonstationary approach, applied to climate mod

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