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Journal articles on the topic 'Future sea level change'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 2 June 2025

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Siddall, Mark. "Interglacial sea-level change and equilibrium sea level: implications for future sea-level predictions." Quaternary International 279-280 (November 2012): 448. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.08.1475.

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2

Siddall, Mark, Thomas F. Stocker, and Peter U. Clark. "Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change." Nature Geoscience 2, no. 8 (2009): 571–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo587.

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3

Hoseini, S. Mahya, Mohsen Soltanpour, Mohammad R. Zolfaghari, and Ioan Nistor. "PROJECTING FUTURE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 38 (May 29, 2025): 124. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v38.management.124.

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The Caspian Sea (CS), the world's largest lake, is a hydrologically sensitive water body, with a water level that has been experiencing significant fluctuations. Between 1930 and 1977, the Caspian Sea level (CSL) decreased dramatically by more than 3 m, reaching 29 m below sea level (Baltic datum). Subsequently, from 1977 to 1995, an unexpected CSL rise of approximately 2.5 m (reaching -26.5 m) led to extensive flooding and various challenges in neighboring countries. Following this sharp increase, the CSL gradually decreased, with the current value of about -27.8 m in 2023. The decline in CSL

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4

Siddall, Mark, Thomas F. Stocker, and Peter U. Clark. "Retraction Note: Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change." Nature Geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo780.

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5

Gregory, J. M., and P. Huybrechts. "Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364, no. 1844 (2006): 1709–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1796.

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Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contribu

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6

Oerlemans, Johannes. "A projection of future sea level." Climatic Change 15, no. 1-2 (1989): 151–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00138850.

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7

Spada, G., J. L. Bamber, and R. T. W. L. Hurkmans. "The gravitationally consistent sea-level fingerprint of future terrestrial ice loss." Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 3 (2013): 482–86. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6996.

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We solve the sea-level equation to investigate the pattern of the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level variations (fingerprints) corresponding to modeled scenarios of future terrestrial ice melt. These were obtained from separate ice dynamics and surface mass balance models for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and by a regionalized mass balance model for glaciers and ice caps. For our mid-range scenario, the ice melt component of total sea-level change attains its largest amplitude in the equatorial oceans, where we predict a cumulative sea-level rise of ~ 25 cm and rates of change

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Kopp, Robert E., Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, et al. "The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change." Geoscientific Model Development 16, no. 24 (2023): 7461–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023.

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Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the

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Horton, Benjamin P., Robert E. Kopp, Andra J. Garner, et al. "Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 43, no. 1 (2018): 481–521. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025826.

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Future sea-level rise generates hazards for coastal populations, economies, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the world. The projection of future sea-level rise relies on an accurate understanding of the mechanisms driving its complex spatio-temporal evolution, which must be founded on an understanding of its history. We review the current methodologies and data sources used to reconstruct the history of sea-level change over geological (Pliocene, Last Interglacial, and Holocene) and instrumental (tide-gauge and satellite alimetry) eras, and the tools used to project the future spatial and

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10

Houston, James. "SHORELINE RESPONSE TO FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 60. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.sediment.60.

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Florida, United States, has shoreline change measurements starting in the 1800s with spacing of about every 300 m. In addition, due to extensive shoreline development and tourism, processes causing shoreline change have been studied extensively. The 1160-km east and 275-km southwest shorelines advanced seaward on average from the 1800s even before widespread beach nourishment and despite sea level rise. Shoreline advance despite sea level rise has been noted along other coasts such as the Netherlands central coast (Stive and de Vriend, 1995). In contrast, the 335-km Florida west coast retreate

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11

Baltuck, Miriam, Jean Dickey, Tim Dixon, and Christopher G. A. Harrison. "New approaches raise questions about future sea level change." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 77, no. 40 (1996): 385. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96eo00263.

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12

Harrison, Benjamin J., Joseph D. Daron, Matthew D. Palmer, and Jennifer H. Weeks. "Future sea-level rise projections for tide gauge locations in South Asia." Environmental Research Communications 3, no. 11 (2021): 115003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac2e6e.

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Abstract Local projections of future sea-level change are important for understanding climate change risks and informing coastal management decisions. Reliable and relevant coastal risk information is especially important in South Asia, where large populations live in low-lying areas and are at risk from coastal inundation. We present a new set of local sea-level projections for selected tide gauge locations in South Asia. The projections are used to explore the drivers of spatial variations in sea-level change for South Asia over the 21st century under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Global

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13

Lanovoy, Vladyslav, and Sally O’Donnell. "Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise." International Community Law Review 23, no. 2-3 (2021): 133–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/18719732-12341466.

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Abstract This article examines the challenges that climate change and sea-level rise pose to certain key aspects of the law of the sea. Sea-level rise is likely to impact maritime baselines, the qualification of maritime features and the entitlements they generate, and ultimately the stability of maritime boundaries, which are critical for the peaceful co-existence of sovereign States. This article examines whether some of the relevant provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea can accommodate a liberal interpretation so as to provide some, even if incomplete, answers to

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14

Bowen, D. Q. "Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11): analogue for present and future sea-level?" Climate of the Past 6, no. 1 (2010): 19–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-19-2010.

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Abstract. Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11), when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now

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15

Bowen, D. Q. "Sea level 400 000 years ago (MIS 11): analogue for present and future sea-level." Climate of the Past Discussions 5, no. 4 (2009): 1853–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-1853-2009.

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Abstract. Comparison of sea-levels today and 400 000 years ago (MIS 11), when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar, may provide indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Evidence for former sea-levels occur on uplifting coastlines where shorelines are preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5) using a range estimates fo

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16

Pirazzoli, P. "Present and near-future global sea-level changes." Global and Planetary Change 1, no. 4 (1989): 241–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(89)90005-2.

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17

Widlansky, Matthew J., Axel Timmermann, and Wenju Cai. "Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific." Science Advances 1, no. 8 (2015): e1500560. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500560.

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Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse ga

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18

Gaslikova, L., A. Schwerzmann, C. C. Raible, and T. F. Stocker. "Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 4 (2011): 1205–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1205-2011.

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Abstract. The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assum

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19

Muhammad, Zikra*. "IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDONESIA OCEAN ENVIRONMENT." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES & RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY 4, no. 5 (2017): 79–85. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.801287.

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The problems in coastal and ocean area related with climate change have continued to receive a high level of attention. Elevate average of sea level, variation in significant wave height and increased ocean temperature are linked to global climate in many ways. Thus, climate variability and future climate change should become a major interest for engineer, stakeholders, and decision makers, especially for developing strategies for mitigation and adaptation for future coastal development. The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of global climate change to Indonesian ocean environm

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20

Barnett, Robert L., Dan J. Charman, Charles Johns, et al. "Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise." Science Advances 6, no. 45 (2020): eabb6376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb6376.

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Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehis

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21

Yeong, Nain Chi. "Analyzing Long-Term Records of Global Average Sea Level Change Using ARIMA Model." Journal of Economics and Business 3, no. 2 (2020): 672–81. https://doi.org/10.31014/aior.1992.03.02.230.

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The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the role of time series model in predicting process and to pursue analysis of time series data using long-term records of global average sea level change from 1880 to 2013 extracted from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency using data from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, 2015. Following the Box–Jenkins method, ARIMA(0,1,1,) model was the best fitted model in prediction for the data, Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880-2013, in this study. Forecasting process with ARIMA(0,1,1) model for prediction in

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22

Long, Antony J. "Back to the future: Greenland's contribution to sea-level change." GSA Today 19, no. 6 (2009): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/gsatg40a.1.

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23

Pirazzoli, P. A., D. R. Grant, and P. Woodworth. "Trends of relative sea-level change: Past, present and future." Quaternary International 2 (January 1989): 63–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/1040-6182(89)90022-0.

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24

Pittard, M. L., B. K. Galton-Fenzi, C. S. Watson, and J. L. Roberts. "Future sea level change from Antarctica's Lambert-Amery glacial system." Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 14 (2017): 7347–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073486.

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25

Weisse, Ralf, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, et al. "Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region." Earth System Dynamics 12, no. 3 (2021): 871–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021.

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Abstract. There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. This, along with the outstanding number of long data records, makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing v

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26

Zhu, Hengyi. "Mechanisms and Modeling of Sea Level Rise in the Context of Global Warming." Theoretical and Natural Science 86, no. 1 (2025): 145–49. https://doi.org/10.54254/2753-8818/2025.20241.

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Sea level rise due to global warming is an important topic in current climate change research. In this study, we explore how complex natural processes triggered by global warming drive sea level change by analyzing climate models. We focus on the main drivers of sea level rise, including ice sheet melting and ocean thermal expansion. In addition, the article discusses in detail how positive feedback mechanisms and negative feedback mechanisms work together to influence the climate change process. In order to predict the future trend of sea level rise, this article models and simulates the glob

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27

Gehrels, W. Roland, David A. Dawson, Jon Shaw, and William A. Marshall. "Using Holocene relative sea-level data to inform future sea-level predictions: An example from southwest England." Global and Planetary Change 78, no. 3-4 (2011): 116–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.05.013.

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28

Norris, K., and P. W. Atkinson. "Declining populations of coastal birds in Great Britain: victims of sea-level rise and climate change?" Environmental Reviews 8, no. 4 (2000): 303–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/a00-011.

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Is sea-level rise and (or) climate change responsible for current declines in important coastal bird populations in Great Britain, and how might these processes affect bird populations in future? We review the current status of coastal bird populations in Britain and identify two important species, Common Redshank (Tringa totanus) and Twite (Carduelis flavirostris), whose populations are currently declining. We then review the evidence relating to the causes of these declines. There is evidence that habitat loss, driven by sea-level rise and climate change (e.g., an increase in wind and wave e

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29

Kim, Minwoo, Cheol-Ho Kim, and Chan Joo Jang. "Projection of future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas based on Global Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Model with SRES A1B Scenario." Korea Society of Coastal Disaster Prevention 8, no. 4 (2021): 281–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.20481/kscdp.2021.8.4.281.

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To project the future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas due to global warming, regional sea level variations are downscaled from three climate system models (GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MIROC3.2(hires)) using a global ocean-sea ice coupled model with non-Boussinesq approximation. Based on the SRES A1B Scenario, the projected ensemble mean sea level rise (rate of rise) for the East Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 1995 to 2050 is 15.60cm (2.84mm/year), 16.49cm (3.0mm/year) and 16.43cm (2.99mm/year), respectively. With the inclusion of the future change of land ice melting and land wat

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30

SMITH, David E., Natasha L. M. BARLOW, Sarah L. BRADLEY, et al. "Quaternary sea level change in Scotland." Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh 110, no. 1-2 (2018): 219–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755691017000469.

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ABSTRACTThis paper summarises developments in understanding sea level change during the Quaternary in Scotland since the publication of the Quaternary of Scotland Geological Conservation Review volume in 1993. We present a review of progress in methodology, particularly in the study of sediments in isolation basins and estuaries as well as in techniques in the field and laboratory, which have together disclosed greater detail in the record of relative sea level (RSL) change than was available in 1993. However, progress in determining the record of RSL change varies in different areas. Studies

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31

Khangaonkar, Tarang, Adi Nugraha, Wenwei Xu, and Karthik Balaguru. "Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 124, no. 6 (2019): 3876–904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018jc014670.

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32

Tsimplis, M. N., D. K. Woolf, T. J. Osborn, et al. "Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 363, no. 1831 (2005): 1329–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1571.

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Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly

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33

Avsar, N. B., and S. H. Kutoglu. "RELATIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGE ALONG THE BLACK SEA COAST FROM TIDE-GAUGE OBSERVATIONS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W8 (August 20, 2019): 43–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w8-43-2019.

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Potential sea level rise poses a significant threat to low-lying areas. Considering present and future of coastal areas, scientific study of sea level rise is an essential for adapting to sea level extremes. In this study, the relative sea level change in the Black Sea were investigated using data of 12 tide-gauge and 6 GNSS stations. Results generally indicated sea level rise along the Black Sea coast. Only at Bourgas tide-gauge station, a sea level fall was detected. A significant sea level change were not determined at Sinop tide-gauge station

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34

Mengel, Matthias, Anders Levermann, Katja Frieler, Alexander Robinson, Ben Marzeion, and Ricarda Winkelmann. "Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 10 (2016): 2597–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500515113.

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Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution t

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35

Pellikka, Havu, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja. "Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 4 (2023): 1613–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023.

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Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results,

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Watanabe, Kunihiro, Fuminori Kato, Akiyoshi Katano, and Yoji Tanaka. "SHORELINE CHANGE PROJECTION CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY MULTIPLE FACTORS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 38 (May 29, 2025): 49. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v38.papers.49.

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Climate change adaptation represents a critical challenge in contemporary beach management. While the majority of previous researches has concentrated on erosion caused by sea level rise, the effects of future change in wave conditions and storm surges have not been sufficiently explored. To address this, we have developed a new method for projecting shoreline changes, which allows for the simultaneous calculation of changes induced by sea level rise and longshore sand transport. Subsequently, we have conducted parametric studies to assess the influence of multiple variables on future shorelin

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Zhang, Jie, Qiyan Ji, Juncheng Zuo, et al. "Projection of Sea Level Change in the South China Sea Based on Dynamical Downscaling." Atmosphere 14, no. 9 (2023): 1343. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091343.

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The projection of future sea level change is usually based on the global climate models (GCMs); however, due to the low spatial resolution of the GCMs, the ability to reproduce the spatial heterogeneity of sea level is limited. In order to improve the sea level simulation capability in the South China Sea (SCS), a high-resolution ocean model has been established by using the dynamic downscaling technology. By evaluating and testing 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), average results of seven models were selected as the forcing condition of the high-resolut

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Zanchettin, Davide, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, et al. "Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 8 (2021): 2643–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021.

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Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the histo

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Irish, Jennifer L., Celso Ferreira, Donald T. Resio, Francisco Olivera, and Chih Hung Hsu. "HURRICANE HAZARD ASSESSMENT: CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA-LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE CHANGE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (2012): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.7.

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Assessment of hurricane flooding risk is an essential component for effective coastal planning and engineering design. Existing methods for evaluating extreme-value flood statistics traditionally assume that flood conditions are stationary, such that historical information represents future conditions. However, dynamic changes in the environment, specifically changing sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity and rate of occurrence, mean that future flooding risk will not be adequately represented by historical conditions alone. In this paper, an approach is proposed for incorpor

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40

Bouttes, N., J. M. Gregory, T. Kuhlbrodt, and T. Suzuki. "The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters 39, no. 23 (2012): n/a. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012gl054207.

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41

Kaplanis, Nikolas J., Clinton B. Edwards, Yoan Eynaud, and Jennifer E. Smith. "Future sea-level rise drives rocky intertidal habitat loss and benthic community change." PeerJ 8 (May 29, 2020): e9186. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9186.

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The impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) are likely to be the greatest for ecosystems that exist at the land-sea interface, where small changes in sea-level could result in drastic changes in habitat availability. Rocky intertidal ecosystems possess a number of characteristics which make them highly vulnerable to changes in sea-level, yet our understanding of potential community-scale responses to future SLR scenarios is limited. Combining remote-sensing with in-situ large-area imaging, we quantified habitat extent and characterized the biological community at two rocky intertidal study locations i

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Chi, Yeong Nain. "Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Mean Sea Level (1978 – 2020): SARIMA and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network." International Journal of Data Science 3, no. 1 (2022): 45–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijods.3.1.45-61.2022.

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The primary purpose of this study was to demonstrate the role of time series model in predicting process and to pursue analysis of time series data using long-term records of monthly mean sea level from January 1978 to October 2020 at Grand Isle, Louisiana. Following the Box–Jenkins methodology, the ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,0,0)[12] with drift model was selected to be the best fitting model for the time series, according to the lowest AIC value in this study. Empirically, the results revealed that the MLP neural network model performed better compared to the ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,0,0)[12] with drift model at i

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Nunn, Patrick D. "Holocene sea-level change and human response in Pacific Islands." Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh 98, no. 1 (2007): 117–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755691007000084.

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ABSTRACTHolocene sea-level changes affected people living in the Pacific Islands and their ancestors along the western Pacific Rim. Sea-level changes, particularly those that were rapid, may have led to profound and enduring societal/lifestyle changes. Examples are given of (1) how a rapid sea-level rise (CRE-3) about 7600 BP could ultimately have led to the earliest significant cross-ocean movements of people from the western Pacific Rim into the islands; (2) how mid to late Holocene sea-level changes gradually created coastal environments on Pacific Islands that were highly attractive to hum

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Mori, Nobuhito, Tomoya Shimura, Sota Nakajo, Tomohiro Yasuda, and Hajime Mase. "MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF FUTURE COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (2012): 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.25.

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This study analyzes future change of averaged coastal physics such as sea level rises, sea surface winds and ocean wave heights based on the climate data set combining IPCC(2007) results and the latest MRI high-resolution AGCM results. The ocean wave height is statistically projected using an empirical formula with sea surface wind by multi-model ensemble. The ensemble means and their standard deviations of coastal forces are presented for the year 2000 to 2100. The signal of future change of Hs has stripped pattern in latitudinal direction and is clearer in the Southern Hemisphere than the No

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Piecuch, Christopher G., Klaus Bittermann, Andrew C. Kemp, et al. "River-discharge effects on United States Atlantic and Gulf coast sea-level changes." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 30 (2018): 7729–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805428115.

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Identifying physical processes responsible for historical coastal sea-level changes is important for anticipating future impacts. Recent studies sought to understand the drivers of interannual to multidecadal sea-level changes on the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Ocean dynamics, terrestrial water storage, vertical land motion, and melting of land ice were highlighted as important mechanisms of sea-level change along this densely populated coast on these time scales. While known to exert an important control on coastal ocean circulation, variable river discharge has been absent from r

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Iwasaki, Sin-Iti, Wataru Sasaki, and Tomonori Matsuura. "Past Evaluation and Future Projection of Sea Level Rise Related to Climate Change Around Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 3, no. 2 (2008): 119–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2008.p0119.

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Using new sea level data on 71 points on Japan’s coast during 1966-2003 in which crustal movement is eliminated from tide records, we evaluate long-term oceanic-origin sea levels and project sea level rises (SLR). We classify Japan’s coast into seven regions of about 100 km^2 by applying cluster analysis to the sea level data. For western Japan, we propose a linear regression model enabling us to predict sea levels based on sea surface temperature (SST). SLR are projected for the 21stcentury using our linear regression model to SSTs of 10 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), based on th

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Sung, Hyun Min, Jisun Kim, Jae-Hee Lee, et al. "Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models." Atmosphere 12, no. 1 (2021): 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010090.

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Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectivel

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Sung, Hyun Min, Jisun Kim, Jae-Hee Lee, et al. "Future Changes in the Global and Regional Sea Level Rise and Sea Surface Temperature Based on CMIP6 Models." Atmosphere 12, no. 1 (2021): 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010090.

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Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential to implement mitigation and adaptation options within a sustainable development framework. This study estimates regional SLR and SST changes around the Korean peninsula. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios and nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations are used to estimate the changes in SLR and SST. At the end of the 21st century, global SLR is expected to be 0.28 m (0.17–0.38 m) and 0.65 m (0.52–0.78 m) for SSP 1–2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectivel

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DUBE, Kaitano, and David CHIKODZI. "EXAMINING CURRENT AND FUTURE CHALLENGES OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL NATIONAL PARKS." GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites 50, no. 4 (2023): 1573–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/gtg.50436-1154.

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Over the past decade, the increase in extreme weather events requires each sector to reflect on vulnerabilities to develop strategies for ramping up climate action. Owing to the shortage of climate data, significant knowledge gaps exist in some sectors of society and the economy, particularly in developing countries such as Africa. This has caused challenges for adaptation and resilience building as governments and other stakeholders cannot leverage knowledge for policy and practice and to seek funding for climate change action. This study responds to this knowledge by examining sea level chal

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Paulik, Ryan, Scott Stephens, Robert Bell, Sanjay Wadhwa, and Ben Popovich. "National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise." Sustainability 12, no. 4 (2020): 1513. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12041513.

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Coastal flooding from extreme sea levels will increase in frequency and magnitude as global climate change forces sea-level rise (SLR). Extreme sea-level events, rare in the recent past (i.e., once per century), are projected to occur at least once per year by 2050 along many of the world’s coastlines. Information showing where and how built-environment exposure increases with SLR, enables timely adaptation before damaging thresholds are reached. This study presents a first national-scale assessment of New Zealand’s built-environment exposure to future coastal flooding. We use an analytical ri

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