Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'G7 countries'

In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1 -2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: (i) spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth evolve rather heterogeneously over time and across countries, and increase during extreme economic events. (ii) Spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth are of bidirectional nature, indicating bidirectional spillovers of shocks between the financial and the real sector. (iii) In the period shortly before and during the global financial crisis, the link between credit growth and GDP growth becomes more pronounced. In particular, the financial sector plays a dominant role during the early stages of the crisis, while the real sector quickly takes over as the dominant source of spillovers. (iv) Interestingly, credit growth in the US is the dominant transmitter of shocks to the G7 countries, and especially to other G7 countries' real sectors in the run up period to (and during) the global financial crisis. Overall, our results suggest that the magnitude and direction of spillovers between financial cycles and business cycles vary over time along with changes in the economic environment in the G7 countries. (authors' abstract)

This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.

This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7 countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions.<br>Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This research project aims to determine Indonesian business leaders perceptions of G7 behaviour towards Indonesia after Independence (1945/1949), at a time when the country is experiencing a severe financial and economic crisis (1997-2001). Is G7 behaviour considered colonial, economic rationalist, or collegial? Additionally, Indonesian business leaders' perceptions of economic and social development in Indonesia are measured, exploring a possible connection with perception of G7 behaviour. Within the context of this project, the researcher assumes that attitudes in Indonesia are significantly shaped by the impact of' an increasingly competitive and sophisticated global free-trade environment today versus one of exploitation and domination under past European colonial rule. The research questions on which the project is based emerged after detailed consideration of a large and varied number of publications concerning related historical and contemporary socio-economic, political issues and examination of recent inter-country comparative performance indicators (1996 to 2000). The background for the research project is framed within the context of Modern World-Systems theory which rose to prominence in the early 1970s, earlier theories about Intentional Underdevelopment, Dependency and Geography, and the more recent hypothesis on Enlightenment and Institutions theory, all attempting to explain why some countries are so poor and others are not. An exploratory study (Study 1) precedes the positivist research paradigm of the principal study (Study 2 - Stages 1 & 2), which is comprised of a pilot and a final stage.The theoretical model put forward and corresponding final stage VIII cross-sectional survey data of the second study are subjected to structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis, to test hypotheses and theory about the associations between theoretical constructs of the model. SEM is a relatively new multivariate technique, which combines aspects of multiple regression and factor analysis. The results of the research show that the impact of colonial rule; the associated exploitation and consequent poverty are still remembered by Indonesian business leaders and as such may have the potential to negatively impact on bi-lateral and multi-lateral negotiations for much needed structural reform in Indonesia, particularly if key influential participants (such as the G7 and the international institutions they control) ignore historical legacies and associated cross-cultural sensitivities. Final stage results provided strong support for two out of the five key hypotheses offered. The findings clearly suggesting that intensifying G7 behaviour as defined in this thesis would invariably further heighten existing perceptions of colonial behaviour. Less encouraging test results were obtained for the remaining hypotheses and overall only qualified support could be given to the proposed theory.The extent of which can be summarized as: "G7 behaviour is perceived as colonial, by Indonesian business leaders, and is significantly influenced by their perception of social development in Indonesia ". The research project was conceived in the absence of scholarly investigations into the historical impact of colonialism in Indonesia on present day attitudes and cultural values with respect to ready acceptance of predominantly Western concepts of globalisation, free trade, open markets and the need for crucial reform. Reforms, which often are imposed on developing nations during times of crisis by way of IMF - Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP), harshly impacting on local populations.

This research project aims to determine Indonesian business leaders perceptions of G7 behaviour towards Indonesia after Independence (1945/1949), at a time when the country is experiencing a severe financial and economic crisis (1997-2001). Is G7 behaviour considered colonial, economic rationalist, or collegial? Additionally, Indonesian business leaders' perceptions of economic and social development in Indonesia are measured, exploring a possible connection with perception of G7 behaviour. Within the context of this project, the researcher assumes that attitudes in Indonesia are significantly shaped by the impact of' an increasingly competitive and sophisticated global free-trade environment today versus one of exploitation and domination under past European colonial rule. The research questions on which the project is based emerged after detailed consideration of a large and varied number of publications concerning related historical and contemporary socio-economic, political issues and examination of recent inter-country comparative performance indicators (1996 to 2000). The background for the research project is framed within the context of Modern World-Systems theory which rose to prominence in the early 1970s, earlier theories about Intentional Underdevelopment, Dependency and Geography, and the more recent hypothesis on Enlightenment and Institutions theory, all attempting to explain why some countries are so poor and others are not. An exploratory study (Study 1) precedes the positivist research paradigm of the principal study (Study 2 - Stages 1 & 2), which is comprised of a pilot and a final stage.<br>The theoretical model put forward and corresponding final stage VIII cross-sectional survey data of the second study are subjected to structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis, to test hypotheses and theory about the associations between theoretical constructs of the model. SEM is a relatively new multivariate technique, which combines aspects of multiple regression and factor analysis. The results of the research show that the impact of colonial rule; the associated exploitation and consequent poverty are still remembered by Indonesian business leaders and as such may have the potential to negatively impact on bi-lateral and multi-lateral negotiations for much needed structural reform in Indonesia, particularly if key influential participants (such as the G7 and the international institutions they control) ignore historical legacies and associated cross-cultural sensitivities. Final stage results provided strong support for two out of the five key hypotheses offered. The findings clearly suggesting that intensifying G7 behaviour as defined in this thesis would invariably further heighten existing perceptions of colonial behaviour. Less encouraging test results were obtained for the remaining hypotheses and overall only qualified support could be given to the proposed theory.<br>The extent of which can be summarized as: "G7 behaviour is perceived as colonial, by Indonesian business leaders, and is significantly influenced by their perception of social development in Indonesia ". The research project was conceived in the absence of scholarly investigations into the historical impact of colonialism in Indonesia on present day attitudes and cultural values with respect to ready acceptance of predominantly Western concepts of globalisation, free trade, open markets and the need for crucial reform. Reforms, which often are imposed on developing nations during times of crisis by way of IMF - Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAP), harshly impacting on local populations.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether economic growth in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) can be explained by changes in the oil price, with a focus on selected macroeconomic variables. We will also investigate if there are any differences in oil price effects on economic growth between the BRIC countries and the western world (G7). The model used is a Koyck transformation model developed by Leendert Marinus Koyck in 1954, which converts a distributed lag model into an autoregressive model. The data used in this thesis covers 11 countries and their quarterly data for the variables: real interest rate, oil price, US dollar exchange rates and current account (exports-imports), which are all economically and theoretical linked to the dependent variable, real GDP. Our distributed lag model will include past values of real GDP as well as oil price. These explanatory variables will be lagged up to 4 periods, where one period is equal to one quarter of a year.   The findings showed a relationship between oil price changes and economic growth. However there are no consistent results for how the oil price affects GDP, neither for the BRIC countries nor the western countries. Furthermore, in the case of the BRIC countries, the cluster generated divided results: A possible reason for these differences were oil exports/imports. For the western world, oil price changes and economic growth is positively correlated and the reason is probably the already existing oil-dependency. In our model both positive and negative results were found, but also an unknown variable affecting some of the countries. Whether it is consistent in each case needs to be analyzed further. From the findings and previous research one can conclude that there are no certain results of how oil price changes affect economic growth.

One of the ways how to solve the agency problem is to align the managers and shareholders interests. Such concord can be achieved through an appropriate selection and set-up of remuneration policy for the top managers of companies. This thesis studies the compensation methods of five biggest corporations in each of the G7 countries and then further analyses the outcomes of the research using statistical and descriptive methods. The analysis is done through a comparison of performance of the company and the industry in order to identify if there is a link between the used compensation method and the company s under or over performance. The findings are described and eventual implications are presented at the end of the paper.

In chapter 1, I investigate the return links and dynamic conditional correlations between the equity and commodity returns for G7 countries from 2000:01 to 2014:10. The commodity futures include BCOM Index which contains the futures and spot price of 22 commodities, Brent and Crude oil futures, gold and silver futures, Wheat, Corn and Soybean futures and CRB index. The finding indicates that during the full sample period GOLD, WHEAT and CORN have the smallest dynamic conditional correlations with all the Equity indexes. In addition, the correlations between the GOLD/Equity pairs are negative during the financial crisis. This fact indicates the benefit of hedging the stock portfolios with gold futures while we have stress in the financial markets. The results from hedging effectiveness suggest that all the commodity/stock portfolios provide better diversification benefits than the stock portfolios. In average, including CRB, BCOM and GOLD futures to the stock portfolios have the highest hedging effectiveness ratios. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of global and local variables on the Sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim Regions, using monthly data from January 2010 to March 2015. There are a few main findings of this chaper. First, the global factors are considerably more important in déterminant the sovereign bond spreads for all the regions. Second, for the bond spread of each region over its local government bond, the countries’ domestic fundamentals are found to be more influential determinants of the spreads, compared to the spread over US government bond as a safe haven government bond. Third, the bond spreads in the Eurozone area is less influenced by the global factors compared to the other regions. Fourth, the sovereign bond spreads of all regions are positively related to the US corporate high yield spreads as a proxy of market sentiment and the log of VIX index as measurement for the investor risk aversion. The coefficient of the log of VIX index shows the strong power of the stock market implied volatility on determining the yield spreads in the fixed income market.

L’objet de la thèse consiste à analyser la relation entre la consommation d’électricité et le produit intérieur brut dans une démarche d’intelligence économique. Plus précisément il s’agit d’analyser l’évolution de l’intensité électrique de l’activité économique sur la période de 2003 à 2012 dans les pays développés du G7 et estimer leurs demandes électriques entre 2013 et 2022.Une première partie cherche à explorer les aspects théoriques et pratiques de l’intelligence économique afin de la comprendre et l’appliquer. Une deuxième partie est consacrée à l’analyse empirique. Nous sommes parvenus aux résultats suivants :Premièrement, les courbes d’intensité électrique de deux pays : le Canada et le Etats – Unis dominent celles des autres pays développés, ainsi, les économies de ces deux pays de l’Amérique du nord sont plus énergivores que celles du Japon et des pays de l’Union européenne. Ensuite, l’évolution temporelle de la consommation d’électricité par unité de PIB sur dix années (2003 – 2012) a globalement diminué dans cinq pays: le Canada (-12%) ; le Royaume – Uni (-5, 3%) ; les Etats – Unis (-5%) ; la France (- 4%) ; l’Allemagne (-3%). Par contre, elle s’est détériorée au Japon (+5%) et en Italie (+6%). L’effet de « structure » est négatif dans tout l’échantillon, il traduit donc t une tertiarisation généralisée. Par contre l’effet « d’efficacité électrique » est contrasté. Il est négatif au Canada et aux Etats – Unis et positif dans le reste du groupe.Deuxièmement, les estimations indiquent une croissance généralisée de la demande électrique de 2013 - 2022 dans l’ensemble des pays du G7. Par ailleurs, les coefficients élasticité électricité /PIB sont inférieurs à l’unité dans tous les pays, excepté l’Italie. Cela signifie que la demande d’électricité moyen annuel de ces pays devrait croître moins vite que leurs PIB. Enfin, les principales perspectives de recherche qui apparaissent à l'issue de cette thèse concernent la transposition de notre modèle d’analyse (l’intelligence énergétique) aux autres formes d’énergie à savoir : le pétrole, le gaz, le charbon et les renouvelables .Finalement, ce modèle peut servir d’instrument de politique économique, énergétique et environnementale aux acteurs économiques et politiques (Etats, entreprises, ONG, OIG.)<br>The subject of this thesis consists of an analysis of the relationship between electricity consumption and Gross Domestic Product from the perspective of Competitive Intelligence. More specifically, it analyzes the evolution of the electrical intensity of economic activity from 2003 to 2012 in the developed countries of the G7, and then estimates their electricity needs from 2013 to 2022. Part one attempt to explore theoretical and practical aspects of Competitive Intelligence to understand and apply them, while part two is devoted to the empirical analysis itself.Concerning the latter, our results are as follows:First, the electrical intensity curves of two countries—Canada and the United States—dominate those of other developed countries; thus, the economies of these two North American countries are more energy-hungry than those of Japan and the countries of the European Union. The overall temporal evolution of electricity consumption per GDP unit over a ten-year period (2003-1012) has gone down in five countries: Canada (-12%), the United Kingdom (-5.3%), the United States (-5%), France (-4%), and Germany (-3%). On the other hand, this evolution has gone the other direction in Japan (+5%) and Italy (+6%). The effect of “structure” is negative across all analyzed data, suggesting general “tertiarisation”. However, the effect of “electricity efficiency” is mixed: it is negative in the United States and Canada, but positive for the rest of group.Second, estimations indicate an overall growth in electricity demand across all G7 countries from 2013 to 2022. Additionally, electrical elasticity coefficients/GDP units are down in all countries except Italy. This tells us that the average annual demand for electricity in these countries should increase at a slower rate than their respective GDPs.Lastly, the primary research perspectives that appear at the beginning of this thesis concern the transposition of our model of analysis (energetic intelligence) onto other forms of energy such as oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources. In the end, this model could be useful to economic and political authorities (governments, private companies, NGOs, IGOs, etc.) as an instrument of economic, energy, and environmental policy

碩士<br>國立中山大學<br>中山學術研究所<br>93<br>Generally speaking, business cycle could be discussed as a short-term fluctuation of business cycle and long-term economic growth. In this research, we will confer what impact factors might have affected the business cycle of correlations (BCCs) across countries in a period of short time. Many empirical analysis have pointed out the temporary factors to the business cycle mainly come from the transferred factors of economic aspect. This is called “Transmission Mechanisms.” What is “Transmission Mechanisms?” Economists often try to substitute it in good markets, financial markets, and the coordination of monetary policies. However, in this duration of the empirical analysis, using only these proxy variables to explain BCCs between two countries seems too limited. According to this situation, we believe if the BCCs can be explained by using proxy factors of non-economic variable, the result can be utilized by making up the defect. We attempt to find new factors in political approach and combine with the “Transmission Mechanisms” that we have introduced earlier. After that, we expect to comprehend the BCCs among G7 countries from the inputs of the two completed different variables. To analyze further economic implication in our research, five conclusions have been summarized below: Firstly, increasing bilateral trade has significantly provided positive effect to BCCs among G7 countries from 1980 to 2002. Because the empirical result of Single Country is insignificant, we then use a two-stage method. First, we estimate “Trade” from endogenous variable to exogenous one. Secondly, we use Panel method to expand its matrix. Finally, we improve the empirical estimators of insignificant statistics before. In other words, the important variables of the correlation of bilateral trade are whether or not the two countries speak the same language; the border problem, and the distance between the two are the same, etc. So, when we talk about the relations between BCCs and good and service markets, we must consider these exogenous factors. Eventually, we will receive more detailed results. Secondly, although to trade in financial markets can increase the BCCs between two countries, the statistic report is insignificant -0.0019 (0.0012). About this empirical result, we can obtain reasonable explanations from the researches (for instance: Imbs, 2004 or Kose et al, 2003), they point out that financial markets are bound excessively by globalization. Therefore, this will aggravatingly make each country to focus on its specialization. Finally, this situation will make the BCCs getting collapsed among these countries. This also explains that the specialization among these countries will reduce the positive effect from the BBCs to financial markets. Thirdly, in this empirical research of Single-Country, we use three proxy estimators of economics to substitute common properties of the monetary policy. At this point, there are no identical correlations of corresponding among other countries except some significantly negative trends shown to the member countries of European Union. According to this situation, we believe it may be the consequence to all the member countries under some ERM restrictions, which is Treaty of Maastricht. Also, because of the rules form this treaty, the monetary policies are getting to be accordant, and the BCCs among the countries will soon appear in obviously positive trend. Fourthly, in the model, the difference of the inflation rate between two countries is not significant with BCCs; therefore, an identical correlation is hardly shown. Moreover, the coefficient symbol is not in our expecting direction, so we think maybe some policies are neglected to the influence of this variable. After all these, we believe if we can control some relative policy effect to inflation rate when discussing the relationship between this variable and the BCCs, we should be able to find out the real effect of this substitutive variable to BCCs Lastly, in the research, the statistics effect of the party variables and business cycle of correlations are very significant. This also indicates the political factor will play an important role for many sources of the fluctuation tread of BCCs. In other words, when we discuss the issue of BCCs if miss the contribution of political factors to the BCCs. Then, this might cause the omitted variable biased, and finally cause the whole computation become inefficient. In addition, we can have further discussion by an input of a factor: to conserve the joint benefit of all the member countries in an economic organization, these countries need to be ruled by the same ideal political party. Otherwise, the institute will never reach its essential result. Combining all the conclusions we have shown above, we can find out the BCCs among G7 countries from 1980-2002. Besides the influence of the “Transmission Mechanisms,” the result will be varied by the political factors. In conclusion, we need to consider the contribution of the political party variables to the BCCs when talking about this issue, therefore; the original theoretical model can be more persuasive. According to a statistics of IMF, the BCCs among those industrial countries are falling little by little in recent years. Therefore, consolidating trade cooperation is essential for what we believe to improve the BCCs among G7. At the same time, pass through a strong integrate monetary policy can move forward all the incumbent parties from all the countries to agree among themselves, and even reach more substantial effect. From the example like this, we might find evidence from BCCs issues by discussing the integration process in European Monetary Union.

碩士<br>國立交通大學<br>經營管理研究所<br>104<br>Utilizing a new data envelopment analysis method based on the concept of non-oriented DDF model, this article analyzes G7 and BRICS group’s efficiency scores of all variables and total factor productivity from both static and dynamic perspectives based on the panel data from 12 developing and developed countries from G7 and BRICS for the period of 2000 to 2010. In this paper, we then further decompose the total factor productivity index into two components (technical efficiency change and technology change) that provide a full analysis. The main findings are as follows: (i) the developing and developed countries are not very different in the efficiency of real capital and labors, showing that the traditional factors of production are not major factors any more in the country’s economic growth now. (ii) G7 countries have highest efficiency scores than BRICS countries with respect to energy use, real GDP and CO2 emissions, showing that there exists technology gap between them. (iii) G7 countries performed better than BRICS countries in TFP change. This difference between them is due to technology change instead of technical efficiency change.

碩士<br>國立臺灣海洋大學<br>應用經濟研究所<br>105<br>This study was testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis of the G7 and ASEAN countries. According to the literature, when economic growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. This research was to verify the literature result, testing the different level of the economic development organizations. In order to find out the consequence through the study. Based on the World Bank and the Statistical Review of World energy, this study collected 15 countries and 15 variables from 1975 to 2015 and 15 observers to find out the presence or absence of the environment in different economies. This research separate the data into two groups. Due to the variable definition, our study setting group one as trade group, and group two as energy group. In order to test the EKC hypothesis and find out the variables effect through the different economic development. This study used ARDL bound test to verify the unit countries EKC hypothesis through the different groups, and also used VECM to verify the panel data short term variable casusl effect and long term EKC hypothesis. Due to the result, different economic development didn’t the main reason to effect the EKC hypothesis. Base on single countries result of the G7 and ASEAN, the EKC hypothesis was existed. When the economic growth to a certain extent, the environmental disruption will decline to the relative low point. Otherwise, the results of this study were used to find out the structural change years and the relationship between the variables in the individual countries. Also to find out the casual relationship between the panel data variables in order to confirm the existence of the interaction between variables. In the estimates of a single country, both G7 and ASEAN had signs of existence in the long-term EKC. Such as：USA, UK, EU, Italy, France, Germany, Russian, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. All of them had enough evidence to prove when the economic growth could inhibit the CO2 emission. According to the group one result, merchandise exports could inhibit the CO2 emission. The group two result also verify oil price could inhibit the CO2 emission. Nevertheless, oil consumption had the positive effect on CO2 emission. Due to the study of the result we separated the data not only in the single countries also as the panel data of the G7 and ASEAN data according to their economic development. In the result of the group one study, trade variables had more than 50% of the countries their EKC hypothesis was existence. In the end, the research chose the group one variables into the later on panel study. According to the empirical result, we could find out that ASEAN and the panel data of all countries their EKC was existence in the long term. And also discover that when GDP growth up to the relative high point, the environmental disruption will decline to the relatively low point. However the empirical result of G7 countries was not have the same consequence as the study anticipation at first. In the short term of the Granger casual relationship test. G7countries empirical result declared that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the one way casual relationship to the energy-use of the oil and renewable energy consumption. Merchandise imports /exports, energy use of oil and square and the real GDP had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission. Merchandise imports /exports had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the merchandise imports /exports. The empirical result of ASEAN countries that the real GDP and the square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship. The real GDP and the CO2 emission had the two-way casual relationship. Merchandise imports /exports, the real GDP, the square of the real GDP and energy use of oil had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to the energy use of oil and merchandise imports /exports. Renewable energy consumption had the one-way casual relationship to the CO2 emission and energy use of oil. The energy use of oil had the one-way casual relationship to the real GDP. The empirical result of the panel data of the all countries. The real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission. The square of the real GDP had the two-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the CO2 emission and merchandise exports. Merchandise imports and exports had the two-way casual relationship. The CO2 emission had the one-way casual relationship to all of the variables except the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports. According to all of the empirical results, in the single countries consequence, the G7 countries had more evidence to prove the EKC is existence. However in the panel data research the G7 countries didn’t exist this hypothesis. Obviously, to decline the CO2 emission. Not only focus on the economic development different also improve the renewable energy consumption and merchandise exports is the most important things of all.

碩士<br>國立中山大學<br>經濟學研究所<br>101<br>The occurrence of financial crisis will inevitably lead to serious economic recession. Thus, it is imperative to study the relationship between financial variables and real economic activities. This research examines the relationship between the financial variables of both the stock market and the bond market and real economic activities. The impulse response function result shows that the stock market index and stock market volatility have positive impact on the real GDP of the G7 Industrial Countries whereas the yield curve has negative impact on the real GDP of the G7 Industrial Countries. The stock market index and stock market volatility in Japan, the United States and Canada have greater impact on their real GDP. According to the forecast error variance decomposition, the stock market index and stock market volatility have better explanatory power about the real GDP in the cases of the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. However, the explanatory power is around only 10%.

碩士<br>國立交通大學<br>科技管理研究所<br>101<br>The paper examines dynamic causal relationships between solar energy generation and real economic growth in Group of 7(G7) during the period 1980-2008, but excludes the country England because the solar energy generation in England is very small than other countries. The paper using a panel data by the cointegration test, error correction model, causality test and other econometric methods are applied to find the relationships among these variables. The main findings of the results below the following, there is unidirectional causality from solar energy generation to real GDP in the short-run and its coefficient is positive, unidirectional long-run relationship from GDP to solar energy generation and strong bidirectional causality between GDP and solar energy generation. Overall, we find a high level of solar energy generation leads to high level of economic growth. Policy makers and managers need to be aware of the fact, if countries want to protect the environment and promote economy, they should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in solar energy infrastructure and stepping up long-run energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy that also promote energy efficiency. The energy conservation policies that aim at curtailing energy use without affecting the end-use benefits must rather find ways of reducing consumer demand.

碩士<br>國立中正大學<br>財務金融所<br>97<br>This study examines the ability of the yield spread to predict future economic growth in G7 countries. Empirical results based on the k-quarter ahead forecasting model reveal that domestic spreads can predict future economic spreads in G7 markets. However, the U.S. spread has little predictability of gross domestic product (GDP) growth of other G6 countries. Moreover, while both the domestic expectation effect and the term premium effect are relevant for predicting future economic growth in most G7 economies, the term premium effect plays a more substantial role in predicting economic growth of G7 countries. Lastly, among three major components of GDP (i.e. consumption, investment, and government spending), the yield spread has a significant and consistent predictive power on the growth of investment component in G7 countries.

碩士<br>逢甲大學<br>國際貿易所<br>99<br>Abstract In general, we assume that the firms’ goal is to maximize firm value. The manager face the different costs between debt and equity funds, and they must considerate to divide between the two kinds of funds. It will face the decision of capital structure. Capital structure is meaningful for firm value and fund cost , so that the decision of capital structure essentially is the decision of the maximum of firm value. Regarding to the discussion of capital structure of firm, recently it focuses on two main theories : tradeoff theory and pecking order theory. Tradeoff theory describes that firm’s leverage is determined by tax benefits of debt and deadweight costs of bankruptcy. And under the agency problem, manager will use equity funds at the same time to support investment. Hence, it will exist a optimal capital structure. In the other hand, pecking order theory describes a hierarchy of financing choice a firm makes due to information asymmetry. Firms will prefer internal funds to external funds , and prefer debt to equity funds. Financial distress is a signal of bankruptcy, and it will have a negative impact on firm value. It will reduce firm value, and lead to the limit of fund used. And it will influence the decision of capital structure. The research consider financial distress to test whether financial distress have impact on firms capital structure. And the result shows that financial distress have no significance impact on capital structure. Final, the research finds that capital structure of financial distress firms would follow the trade-off theory.

博士<br>逢甲大學<br>金融博士學位學程<br>105<br>Based on the theory of stock market co-movements and the mechanism of insurance promoting economic growth, this study utilizes the wavelet analysis and the bootstrap panel Granger causality test to investigate the relationship between the financial market (the stock market and the insurance market) and the economic growth in Group of Seven (G7). Results of the stock co-movement suggest that, strong co-movements exist in the stock market across the full-sample in G7 countries. The co-movements both cover the high-frequency interaction and low-frequency interaction, showing the stock co-movements not only depend on the short-term factors, but also depend on the long-term factors (real economic factors). To further investigate the role of economic growth in stock co-movement, this study takes the economic growth as the control variable. The results show that, the low frequency (long-term) positive linkage in the stock market is greatly weakened, which further proves that the long-term interaction of the real economy and the international trade could be reflected from the stock co-movement. The bootstrap panel Granger causality between the insurance and the economic growth shows that, the relationship between insurance market and economic growth is complex, and this complexity conforms to the law of insurance market development in different countries. Overall, this study proves a close correlation between financial markets and the real economy though differences between countries existing. Results of this study have far-reaching practical significance for the reasonable adjustment of financial market and the real economy in developed countries, and these results also have important reference significance for other economies (such as emerging countries).

碩士<br>國立中山大學<br>經濟學研究所<br>102<br>This paper applies a vector autoregressive model of real exchange rate changes and real interest rate differentials to estimate expected real exchange rate changes. The constructed real exchange rate changes are then regressed on real interest differentials. The estimated slope coefficient from the above regression implies cross-equation restrictions on the coefficients of the VAR model. We adopt the Wald test to examine the validity of the above restrictions. Besides, the estimated slope coefficient can be decomposed to the product of the correlation and relative standard deviation of expected real exchange rate changes and real interest differentials, which allows us to examine the reason why the estimated coefficient being different from 1.0. Finally, we apply the impulse response analysis to examine the effect of shocks on real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. Our empirical results indicate that although most countries fail to reject the validity of cross-equation restrictions, the estimated slope coefficient is not close to one, and the reason is due to the small relative standard errors of real expected real exchange rate changes and real interest differentials. Finally, the results from the impulse response analysis point out that the increase in the real interest differential of a domestic country leads to a currency appreciation of that country, except for Japan, which supports the negative relationship between real exchange rates and real interest differential for most countries under investigation. As for the positive relationship between the real interest differential and the real exchange rate, it could be due to the influence of the carry trade.

碩士<br>文化大學<br>造紙印刷研究所<br>82<br>To contrast between N.T.Dollar and G7 Countries'' Paper Currency in design and security features. Make use of questions and answers to interrogate our Banknote Printing Works workmens'' recognized in paper money design factors and security features. Analysis of interrogated datas way had Frequency Distribution, Mean and Standard Deviation,One Way Analysis of Variance, Scheffe''s Multiple Method etc.

碩士<br>國立交通大學<br>管理科學系所<br>105<br>This thesis explores the linkage relationship between economy, environment, clean (renewable/nuclear) and non-clean (fossil fuels) energy in group of seven (America, Canada, England, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) over the period 1980-2013. In this paper, we use panel data, co-integration test, error correction model, causal relationship test and other related measurement methods to find out the relationship between these variables. The results of the test show that CO2 positive impact fossil fuels, and fossil fuels negative impact new renewable energy, that is, fossil fuels and new renewable energy exists an alternative relationship. Those countries pay more attention on new renewable energy, their fossil fuels will gradually reduce. While the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will lead to the G7 to reduce energy consumption. Moreover, GDP negative impact NRE, indicating that despite the G7’s gross domestic production decline, they won’t reduce to build new renewable energy equipment. On the other hand, they increase clean energy equipment development. In the long term, CO2 affect the new renewable energy and fossil fuels consumption. There is one-way impact of new renewable energy and fossil fuels, and two-way long-term causal relationship between new renewable energy consumption and fossil fuels. It can be seen from this study that nuclear energy consumption negative effects on CO2, that is, when nuclear energy consumption increases, CO2 emissions will decrease. Besides, CO2 negative impact fossil fuels consumption, said that when the CO2 emissions increase, the amount of fossil fuels consumption will decrease. And, nuclear energy consumption negative impact fossil fuels consumption, indicating that nuclear energy and fossil fuels exist an alternative relationship. When the use of nuclear energy increased, fossil fuels will be reduced. In the long run, there are two-way long-term causal relationship between CO2, fossil fuels, GDP and nuclear energy consumption.