Academic literature on the topic 'Garbage can models of decision making'
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Journal articles on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Glynn, Peter W., Henrich R. Greve, and Hayagreeva Rao. "Relining the garbage can of organizational decision-making: modeling the arrival of problems and solutions as queues." Industrial and Corporate Change 29, no. 1 (December 12, 2019): 125–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtz069.
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Abstract The garbage can account of organizations where problems, solutions, and people chase each other is often invoked but rarely studied since its publication 44 years ago. It has been critiqued for being a metaphor rather than a model, and offering a deterministic rather than stochastic account. We reline the garbage can model of organizational decision-making by modeling the arrival of problems, people, and solutions as queues that get matched randomly. We show that queuing models allow us to understand the effect of using either experts, supervisor approval, teams, and deviation from supervision on problem resolution and oversight. Our approach shows that manager approval increased the standard deviation of problem resolution, whereas queues are processed faster and have lower variance when there is oversight or teamwork, or when manager approval is bypassed due to independent action by problem solvers. It also shows the costs of using an organizational hierarchy to address problems with different levels of difficulty, or specialization to address a mixture of fundamentally different problems. Thus, a stochastic garbage can model provides insights into why organizations make many decisions but often fail to resolve problems!
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Hoelscher, Carrisa S., Michael W. Kramer, Christopher Nguyen, Olivia D. Cooper, and Eric Anthony Day. "Decision Making and Communication in a Statewide Interagency Task Force." Management Communication Quarterly 31, no. 1 (August 1, 2016): 39–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0893318916661762.
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This study examines the proposed and utilized decision-making processes of an interagency taskforce formed to create a strategic plan for addressing substance abuse concerns. Analysis of data obtained through prolonged observation, interviews, and document collection indicated that, although the planned structure remained relatively intact, the taskforce deviated from planned decision-making processes in the procedures and decision-making criteria utilized. These deviations were justified through retrospective rationality and strategic ambiguity. Although prior research has described decision making using rational, satisficing, and garbage can models, the theoretical implications of this study point to a renewed understanding of collaborative decision making combining these approaches. Ultimately, this study illustrates how the characteristics of a loosely coupled, bona fide interorganizational group both enabled and constrained the decision-making process. Accordingly, practitioners and scholars alike should consider the advantages and limitations of retrospective rationality and strategic ambiguity across a variety of group and organizational contexts.
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Ocasio, William, Luke Rhee, and Dylan Boynton. "March and the pursuit of organizational intelligence: the interplay between procedural rationality and sensible foolishness." Industrial and Corporate Change 29, no. 1 (November 28, 2019): 225–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtz068.
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Abstract March’s long and varied career in organization theory encompasses a number of seemingly disparate themes from rationality, to ambiguity and the garbage can model, to exploration and exploitation in organizations. We examine March’s diverse research trajectory and conclude that his different insights can be brought together under one common theme for his career: that both procedural rationality and sensible foolishness are necessary for the pursuit of organizational intelligence. Traditional models of rationality, even bounded rationality, are insufficient because goals are unstable and inconsistent, and causal ambiguity leads to myopic learning or worse. To explain the interplay between procedural rationality and sensible foolishness in organizations, we explore their role in the inter-related processes of programing, monitoring, sensemaking, search, and decision making.
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Fardal, Harald, and Jan-Oddvar Sørnes. "IS Strategic Decision-Making: A Garbage Can View." Issues in Informing Science and Information Technology 5 (2008): 553–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/1028.
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Saleri, N. G. "Re-Engineering Simulation: Managing Complexity and Complexification in Reservoir Projects." SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering 1, no. 01 (February 1, 1998): 5–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/36696-pa.
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Summary Managing complexity and technological complexification is a necessity in today's business environment. This paper outlines a method to increase value addition significantly by multidisciplinary reservoir studies. In this context, value addition refers to a positive impact on a business decision. The approach ensures a level of complexification in line both with business questions at hand and the realities of reservoirs. Sparse well control, seismic uncertainties, imperfect geologic models, time constraints, software viruses, and computing hardware limitations represent some common reservoir realities. The process model detailed in the paper uses these apparent shortcomings to moderate (i.e., guide) the level of complexification. Several project examples illustrate the implementation of the process model. The paper is an extension of three previous investigations1–3 that deal with issues of method and uncertainty in reservoir-performance forecasting. Introduction Multidisciplinary teams and data have become the standard 1990's methods to address large-scale reservoir-management issues. Concurrently, reservoir simulation has assumed the role as a "knowledge manager" of ever-growing quantities of information. The paper pursues three basic questions:How can we maximize the value added from integrated reservoir studies,How can we achieve a pragmatic balance between business objectives/timetables and problem complexification, andHow best can we use the technology dividend provided by the explosion of computing power Primarily because of their size, Saudi Arabian fields amplify the significance of these three questions. What has emerged is the realization that reservoir simulation needs to provide a proper demarcation between scientific and business objectives to remain business-relevant. The discussion that follows consists of two main parts. First, we present an analysis of complexity in general and reservoir systems in particular. This is followed by a process model (i.e., parallel planning plus) and a set of principles that link business needs, reservoir realities, and simulation in the context of multidisciplinary studies. The following definitions will facilitate the discussion that follows. Complex (adjective): Composed of interconnected parts. Complexity: The state of being intricate. The degree of interconnection among various parts. Complexification: The process of adding incremental levels of complexity to a system. Detail vs. Dynamic Complexity A vast array of multisourced information makes up reservoir systems (Fig. 1). Reservoir simulation is our attempt to link the "detail complexity" of such a system to the "dynamic complexity"4,5 expected in business decisions. In this regard, a systems engineering perspective to reservoir management is very relevant. Senge4 defines two types of complexity: detail and dynamic. Detail complexity entails defining individual ingredients in fine detail, while dynamic complexity refers to the dynamic, often unpredictable, outcomes of the interactions of the individual components. Senge4 states that "the real leverage in most management situations lies in understanding dynamic complexity, not detail complexity." This is precisely true for many of the questions facing reservoir-management project teams in the industry. When to initiate an EOR project or pattern realignment or how to develop a field are typical dynamic complexity problems. Relative-permeability data, field-management strategies, or wellbore hydraulics are examples of detail complexity. Geologic, geostatistical, and reservoir-simulation models are also examples of detail complexity, but represent higher orders of organization. Interestingly, reservoir-simulation models have a dual function: first, as an organizer of detail complexity, and, second, as a tool for interpreting dynamic complexity (a distinction from geologic models). Technological complexification is the process of adding incremental levels of detail complexity to a system to represent its dynamic complexity more rigorously. Each one of the components depicted in Fig. 1 offers an avenue of complexification. Perhaps ironically, every component also carries an element of uncertainty. New technologies are adding significantly to the detail complexity available to multidisciplinary teams. One can see that advances in computing technology, for instance, play a role in the cycle of complexification that Fig. 2 shows. As we acquire more computing power, we can build more complex models, which will further delineate the questions being addressed, calling for more computing power, and so on. The real question, however, is whether we are in fact getting a better answer to the questions posed. Or, alternatively, are we making a difference? Multidisciplinary studies are vulnerable to the tendency towards maximal detail complexity. As one of the constituent disciplines (e.g., seismic, geostatistics) produces a more detailed reservoir representation, the pressure mounts for the other disciplines to match the level of complexification in their respective areas. However, for many reservoir problems, we may have a nonlinear relationship between dynamic and detail complexity (Fig. 3). As the number of detail complexity elements rise, the number of interactions among the elements proliferate. Any one of these interactions can be a show stopper. For example, reservoir-simulation models constructed at the detail level (i.e., scale) of geocellular models can become numerically unstable or prohibitively central-processing-unit (CPU) intensive - either way, a nonsolution. Complexification vs. Error Expectations The reservoir system depicted in Fig. 1 does not represent a controlled data environment; i.e., we are not operating in a setting where we can control the quality and quantity (sufficiency) of data. Therefore, in reservoir systems, the concept of "garbage in/garbage out," when taken literally, is an oxymoron. There is always some contamination (error or uncertainty) in one of the detail complexity elements. Thus, we need to redefine our mission as "given the data environment as is, what is an acceptable error, and what is an appropriate level of complexification?"
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Tamir, Emanuel, and Mirit K. Grabarski. "Surviving the reform: management usage of the garbage can model during implementation of reform." Journal of Educational Administration 58, no. 3 (April 15, 2020): 373–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jea-09-2019-0169.
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PurposeThis paper aims to apply the garbage can model to identify factors that affect managerial decision-making processes in educational systems undergoing reforms.Design/methodology/approachThis paper used a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews with 39 teachers and managers in schools undergoing a system-wide reform.FindingsThe paper presents examples for a typology of decision outcomes found in the model and provides explanations for their emergence. It shows that there are many challenges that are associated with reform implementation and suggests factors that need to be taken into account when planning and implementing a reform.Originality/valueSchool management and policy makers can learn about the risks that are associated with garbage can decision-making and the various risk factors. Practical suggestions are given to reduce the probability of suboptimal decision-making.
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Tamir, Emanuel, and Mirit K. Grabarski. "Searching for Gold in The Garbage Can: Decision-Making on Resource Utilization in Schools Using the Garbage-Can Model." Leadership and Policy in Schools 18, no. 3 (April 5, 2018): 325–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15700763.2018.1450515.
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Cohen, Sandra, and Sotirios Karatzimas. "Modernizing government accounting standards in Greece: a case of ‘garbage can’ decision-making." Public Money & Management 36, no. 3 (February 3, 2016): 173–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09540962.2016.1133966.
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Mitchell, Debbielou. "In and Out of the Garbage Can: A Model of Faculty Decision Making." Nursing Forum 22, no. 1 (January 1985): 12–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-6198.1985.tb00763.x.
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Fumagalli, Corrado. "When Do They Speak? Deliberation and Democratic Decision-Making in the European Union." Political Studies 67, no. 4 (March 25, 2019): 1053–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032321719828276.
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In this article, I argue that the experimentalist model of democracy can contribute to contemporary disputes about deliberation at the supranational level. The fundamental idea is that, in conditions of disagreement, for a decision to be legitimate, deliberative decision-making processes must be structured so as to allow the inclusion of affected interests before and after voting. I argue that there are three ways for a decision to be illegitimate: exclusion of affected interests from all deliberative phases, Captain Hook politics and garbage-time politics. Captain Hook politics and garbage-time politics illuminate an important variable: in a deliberative process, some interests may enter deliberation too early, other interests too late. However, for a decision to be legitimate, it is not only important that all affected interests can have an influence on collectively binding decisions, but it is also important what moment in time such interests play a part in the deliberative process.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Delgoshaei, Bahareh, and Masoud Fatahi. "Garbage Can Decision-Making in a Matrix Structure : A Case Study of Linköping University." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-95612.
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Background: A university is characterized as organized anarchy. According to Cohen, et al. (1972) decision-making occurs in form of A Garbage Can Model (GCM) in such organizations. This model is influenced by some factors such as organizational structure. The influences of some types of organizational structure have been studied based on a computer simulation by Cohen and his colleagues in 1972. However, the study was based on numerical statistics and excluded the influence of genuine characteristics of an organizational structure. Aim: This thesis aims to understand the influence of the dynamic and real characteristics of an organizational structure on a university’s decision-making process. Therefore, this research is conducted to explore how matrix structure influences on decision-making process in Linköping University by reducing uncertainty characteristics of decision-making process. Definitions: A Garbage Can Model: provides a theory framework in order to understand how decisions are made in organizations under condition of organized anarchy. This Model has four heterogeneous streams include decision, solution, decision maker, and choice opportunity. All these streams are moving around within the organization and need to match up in the choice opportunities to make decisions. Matrix Structure: is a structure with focus on multiple dimensions through multiple lines of authority and lateral communication. Results: The Matrix structure reduces the uncertainty of decision-making in Linköping University by managing the information process through the lateral communication. More specifically, the lateral communication occurs based on different approaches such as informal meetings, network of people, management group, and external information. However, the authority aspect in Linköping University has certain tendency towards the single unity of command (centralization), which is in contrast with matrix structure characteristics.
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Botha, Helet. "Garbage and goals : toward a prescription for research that would lead to a technology of foolishness." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/85777.
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Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The purpose of this thesis is to develop a framework for research that will lead to a “technology of foolishness”, à la James March (1972). This is done by a) analysing the nature and b) evaluating the results of case studies that employ the garbage can theory within the field of organisational decision making. The garbage can is used since it was developed to describe decision making within organised anarchies. These are organisational contexts characterised by ambiguous goals, amongs other traits. Thus, one of the aims of the theory was to describe how decisions are made in the face of goal ambiguity. In this thesis nineteen case studies that were published between 1976 and 2010 are analysed. Only studies where the garbage can theory’s components are brought to bear on the data in a significant way are included in the scope of the study. This means that data has to be structured according to the theory, or that the authors’ conclusions address the theory specifically. It was found that the case studies produce very few insights on goal ambiguity which can be put to use in developing a technology of foolishness. Based on the analysis of the nature of the garbage can theory and the studies in the sample, a new way of doing research on goal ambiguity is put forth. Based on the insights on goal ambiguity that were produced, the themes that need researching are suggested. A core discovery is that although the garbage can in used as a process theory very often, the interpretivist tools that fit within this approach are seldom used. The normative strategy that is put forth includes incorporating the role of active decision making entities into the garbage can theory, or using the garbage can theory in conjunction with a model that does provide for the role of these decision making entities. It is important to note that these entities need not and should not be subjected to the principles of rational choice theory. It is also proposed that the garbage can theory be utilised as a process theory of decision making and that theoretical tools that are appropriate to this kind of theory be used. These tools would form part of theories designed for analysing and understanding organisational narratives. Themes that need to be researched include symbolic expressions (such as metaphors), tactile or visual experiences, the role of intuition and emotional expression in decision making processes, the role of identity (that of the focal decision makers and the people he comes into contact with) and, lastly, the idea that the world is enacted, rather than having to be predicted.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis het ten doel om ʼn raamwerk vir navorsing daar te stel wat sal lei tot die ontwikkeling van ʼn ‘tegnologie vir dwase optrede’, à la James March (1972). Dit word gedoen deur a) die aard en b) die resultate van gevallestudies wat die vullisdromteorie op besluitneming in organisasies toepas, te analiseer. Die vullisdromteorie word gebruik omdat dit ontwikkel is om besluitneming in ‘georganiseerde anargieë’ te beskryf. Georganiseerde anargieë word, onder anadere, gekenmerk deur dubbelisinnige doelwitte. Dus was een van die mikpunte van die model om besluitneming te beskryf wanneer doelwitte dubbelsinnig is. In hierdie tesis word negentien gevallestudies, wat tussen 1976 en 2010 gepubliseer is, bestudeer. Slegs studies waar die komponente van die teorie beduidend in die data neerslag vind, word ingesluit by die omvang van die studie. Dit beteken dat die data volgens die komponente gestruktureer is, of dat die navorsers die evaluering van die teorie eksplisiet by hulle konklusies insluit. Die bevinding is dat die gevallestudies baie min insigte rondom doelwitdubbelsinnigheid bied wat binne die raamwerk van ʼn tegnologie vir dwase optrede pas. Op grond van die analise van die oorhoofse eienskappe van beide die vullisdromteorie en die studies in die steekproef, word daar ’n nuwe normatiewe raamwerk vir die benadering tot navorsing omtrent doelwitdubbelsinnigheid voorgestel. Op grond van die insigte omtrent doelwitdubbelsinnigheid wat wel deeluitmaak van die resultate, word temas vir navorsing voorgestel. ʼn Kern-ontdekking is dat ofskoon die vullisdrom gereëld as ʼn prosesteorie aangewend word, die interpretivistiese instrumente wat tot hierdie benadering hoort, selde gebruik word. Die nuwe normatiewe strategie is dat die vullisdromteorie as sodanig aangepas word dat dit voorsiening maak vir aktiewe besluitnemende entiteite. ʼn Ander werkbare opsie is om die vullisdromteorie te same met ’n teorie wat wel vir hierdie entiteite voorsiening maak, aan te wend. Hierdie entiteite hoef en behoort egter nie gemodelleer te word volgens ’n rasionele keuse teorie nie. Daar word ook voorgestel dat waar die vullisdromteorie aangewend word, dit as ’n prosesteorie vir besluitneming aangewend word en dat teoretiese instrumente wat binne die raamwerk van prosesteorieë pas, benut word. Hierdie instrumente sluit metodes en teorieë wat geskik is vir die analisering en verstaan van narratiewe in organisasies in. Temas wat nagevors moet word is simboliese uitdrukkings (soos metafore), ervarings wat tas- en sigsintuie insluit, die rol van intuïsie en emosionele uitdrukking in die besluitnemingproses, die rol van identiteit (van die fokale besluitnemer sowel as ander entiteite met wie hy in kontak kom) en, laastens, die idee dat die wêreld geskep word deur aksies, eerder as dat dit voorspel hoef te word.
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Ivkova, Rossitza. "Rettung und Mord in genozidalen Entscheidungsprozessen Bulgarien 1941-1943 /." PDF, 2005. http://bieson.ub.uni-bielefeld.de/volltexte/2005/702/index.html.
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Dobbs, William F. ""Reclaiming lost ground : the future of electronic warfare in the USAF" /." Maxwell AFB, Ala. : School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, 2008. https://www.afresearch.org/skins/rims/display.aspx?moduleid=be0e99f3-fc56-4ccb-8dfe-670c0822a153&mode=user&action=downloadpaper&objectid=ac7f0a58-1d65-421d-bf9c-fb39ca9449b4&rs=PublishedSearch.
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Jernberg, Signe. "En högskola blir till : Beslutsteoretiska perspektiv på organisatoriskt varande." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-309604.
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What defines a Swedish university college? This is the overarching question in this archival study of the development of the Swedish university colleges during the past 35 years. The objective of the study is to explore the binary elements in the overall unitary Swedish university system. Departing from existing macro level research on the university colleges (UCs), this study focuses on one single UC. Development of the UC was conceptualized as a question of decision-making in the UC in interplay with political decisions. The UC was explored by taking an extensive inductive approach starting from the original Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice, a perspective on organizations that focuses on the temporal order emerging from decisions, rather than enduring orders. Nine decisions situations in the UC were identified as well as four political reforms. The study shows that the concept “streams” from the model are the phenomena occupying organization members mind over time, thus constituting a recurring element although not an enduring order, tying together the temporal orders. The streams are shared between the UC and political decision-making; the two decision-making entities both take part in forming the streams over time. The streams are: (1) the academic discipline; (2) the vocational education; (3) research as a means to enhance the quality of education; and (4) regional relevance. The study proposes the emergence of a fifth stream, the research profile, which is taken to be a unique stream for the UCs in general, that differentiates them from the universities. The analysis shows that the UC continuously adjusts the law to the organizational conditions rather than implements legislation when new, hence offering a perspective on organizational change as a persistent condition inherent in the organizational body rather than definable events. By using the concept stream the study suggests a conceptualization of the political influence on the UC organizational body as well as a conceptualization of how the UC influence political decisions. This conceptualization provides a novel perspective on the relationship between state and the universities. A perspective that can be explored in future research, focusing on mutual adjustments of the streams.
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Duclos, Gosselin Louis. "How Managers Can Use Predictive Analysis and Mathematical Models as Decision Making Tools." Thesis, Université Laval, 2011. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2011/26771/26771.pdf.
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Karlsson, Anna, and Christian Silva. "INDIVIDERS PÅVERKAN : på beslut under en kommunal målprocess." Thesis, Högskolan i Skövde, Institutionen för handel och företagande, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-9566.
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Bakgrund och problem: Målstyrning, som utvecklades inom den privata sektorn, blev som en följd av New Public Management (NPM) ett vanligt styrsätt inom svenska kommunorganisationer redan i början av 1990-talet. Skillnader i förutsättningarna mellan privata och offentliga organisationer har sedan dess gjort att det funnits svårigheter att tillämpa styrsättet. Tidigare forskning har identifierat problem i form av målträngsel, målformulering, mätbarhet och uppföljning. Studier som fokuserat på beslut i kommunorganisationer har bland annat tittat på tjänstemanna- kontra politikerrollen och individernas egenskaper. I den här studien dockas de båda områdena samman då beslut under kommunala organisationers målprocesser studeras med särskilt fokus på individers påverkan på besluten. Forskningsfråga: Hur påverkar individer i en kommunorganisation, i praktiken, de beslut om mål och delmål som förekommer under målstyrda arbeten? Och varför ser påverkan ut som den gör? Syfte: Syftet med studien är att förklara individers påverkan på beslut om mål och delmål under ett målstyrt arbete i en kommunorganisation, detta för att skapa en helhetsbild som ökar den totala förståelsen för målarbeten i dessa organisationer. Teoretisk referensram: Studien koncentreras kring individers påverkan på beslut, genom att ta utgångspunkt i den vidareutvecklade Garbage-Can-teorins begrepp; problem, lösningar, tid, engagemang och möjligheternas fönster. Samtliga delar inriktas på målstyrda kommunorganisationers förutsättningar, genom att de beskrivs med utgångspunkt i tidigare forskning kring NPM, målstyrning samt individers roller och egenskaper. Ett praktikteoretiskt perspektiv används för att länka samman delarna till en förklarande helhet. Metod: Arbetet har genomförts som en kvalitativ fallstudie och empiriinsamlingen har i första hand gjorts genom direkta observationer under mötestillfällen i en kommunal målprocess. Slutsatser: Studien har visat att individer i målstyrda kommunorganisationer påverkar beslut om mål och delmål genom att argumentera för olika problem och lösningar och agera med skiftande tidsinsats och engagemang. Detta i sin påverkan av målförslagen, arbetsfördelningen och beslutsprocessen. Att påverkan ser ut på detta sätt beror enligt vår studie på att den, tillsammans med den sociala värld där den ägt rum, är en del av en ömsesidigt grundläggande helhet. Den sociala verkligheten är formad av flera strukturella och politiska förutsättningar som både påverkas av individerna och som påverkar dem.Background and problems: Management by objectives was developed in the private sector and became, with the help of New Public Management (NPM), a commonly used mode of control in Swedish municipalities in the early 1990s. Different prerequisites between private and public organizations have made the implementation problematic all from the beginning. Previous research has identified problems with goal inflation, goal writing, measurability and monitoring. Studies of decision making in municipal organizations has focused on the roles of officials and politicians and the characteristics of these individuals. This study brings the two areas together by focusing on decisions during municipal goal processes and the impact of the individuals on the decisions made in these processes. Research question: How do the individuals in a municipal organization, in practice, affect the decisions of objectives that occur during work managed by objectives? And why does the affect appear this way? Purpose: The purpose of this study is to explain the individual’s impact on objectives set for a municipal work managed by objectives; this will help to create an overall picture that increases the understanding of goal processes in this kind of organizations. Frame of reference: The study concentrates on individual’s impact on decisions by starting off from the concepts of the extended Garbage Can theory; problems, solutions, time, dedication and windows of opportunity. By being described in relation to previous research of NPM, MBO and the roles and characteristics of individuals, these components where oriented towards the conditions of a municipal organization managed by objectives. Practice Theory has been used to link the concepts together to a holistic explanation. Method: This study was made as a qualitative case study where the empirical data collection where made primarily through direct observations during meetings in a municipal goal process. Conclusions The study has shown that individuals in municipal organizations managed by objectives affect decisions of objectives by arguing in favor of different problems and solutions and acting with shifting time effort and dedication. This in their effect on the suggested objectives, the division of labor and the decision process. According to this study, the affect appears this way because it is, together with the social world that surrounds it, a part of a mutual constitution. The social world is formed by both structural and political conditions that are being affected by the individuals as well as they affect them.
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Kang, Sun Mo. "An interactive organizational choice processing system to support decision making by using a prescriptive garbage can model." Thesis, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/22309.
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El, Khoury Caline. "La prise de décision stratégique en contexte hospitalier pluraliste." Thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/25527.
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Le système de santé libanais connait une évolution chaotique de son secteur sanitaire, dans un univers en concurrence croissante. De plus, dans l’organisation de ce système, divers groupes d’acteurs évoluent et influencent directement ou indirectement les prises de décisions stratégiques dans les établissements de santé libanais. Voilà pourquoi, dans un contexte où évolue une pluralité d’acteurs qui sont interdépendants et poursuivent des objectifs divergents, la prise de decision stratégique semble un défi de taille.
La présente étude vise donc à comprendre et à analyser les processus dynamiques des décideurs ayant une influence sur la prise de décision stratégique dans une organisation de santé, en contexte pluraliste, où diverses forces externes et internes exercent une influence sur ce processus décisionnel. Pour y arriver, la prise de décision stratégique est analysée selon une perspective de relations de pouvoir, en partant des acteurs de l’organisation de santé et du contexte dans lequel ils évoluent.
Cette recherche propose un modèle conceptuel qui s’appuie sur les concepts généraux de l’analyse stratégique de Crozier et Friedberg (1977) jumelés au modèle de la poubelle « Garbage Can ». Les éléments proposés de ce cadre conceptuel sont pertinents pour expliquer l’interaction entre la liberté des acteurs et les relations de pouvoir qui en ressortent, la présence fortuite des courants menant à la prise de décision et l’environnement dans lequel baignent les acteurs et l’organisation, qui influencent de façon majeure l’élaboration de la prise de décision stratégique dans un établissement de santé pluraliste.
Afin de répondre à l’objectif de cette recherche, nous nous sommes basés sur une revue de littérature sur la prise de décision stratégique en contexte hospitalier pluraliste. Ensuite, nous avons procédé à une démarche qualitative basée sur les entrevues semi-structurées et l’analyse documentaire, dans le cadre de deux hôpitaux libanais, représentatifs du bassin hospitalier libanais. Cette étude de cas a permis de retracer 4 cas traceurs à partir desquels les comportements stratégiques mobilisés par les acteurs concernés par le processus décisionnel ont été mis en évidence. Pour ne citer que quelques stratégies répertoriées, nous prenons l’exemple des stratégies d’adaptation à l’environnement, d’implication des acteurs externes ainsi que de collaboration et de négociation qui prennent en considération l’environnement turbulent dans lequel baignent ces établissements de santé.
En outre, l’interprétation des résultats a mis l’accent sur les stratégies d’acteurs internes et externes qui ont mené à la formation d’une constellation de leadership élargie, composée d’acteurs stratégiques multiples en constante interaction. Ces jeux de pouvoir ont influencé le processus décisionnel et ont permis la rencontre des processus formels et « informels » de prise de décision, menant à une meilleure compréhension du cheminement décisionnel stratégique dans les établissements de santé pluralistes.
En conclusion, des recommandations concrètes sont formulées à l’intention des décideurs en santé. De plus, la rencontre théorique développée pour la première fois dans cette thèse, apporte une contribution intéressante aux théories des organisations. Ultimement, la thèse ouvre la voie à des pistes de réflexion prometteuses sur la prise de décision stratégique, en contexte pluraliste.The Lebanese health system is experiencing a chaotic evolution of its health sector, in a world of increasing competition. In addition, in the organization of this system, various groups of actors evolve and influence directly or indirectly the strategic decision-making of the Lebanese healthcare establishments. In a context in which evolves a plurality of actors who are interdependent and pursue divergent objectives, strategic decision-making seems a major challenge. Therefore, the present study aims to understand and analyze the dynamic processes of decisionmakers having an influence on strategic decision-making in a healthcare organization, in a pluralistic context, where various external and internal forces exert an influence on this strategic decision-making. To achieve this, strategic decision-making is analyzed from a power relation’s perspective, starting with the players in the health organization and the context in which they operate. This research proposes a conceptual model based on the general concepts of strategic analysis of Crozier and Friedberg (1977) combined with the garbage can model. The proposed elements of this conceptual framework are relevant for explaining the interaction between the freedom of actors and the power relations that emerge from it, the fortuitous presence of the currents leading to decision-making and the environment in which the actors are immersed which have a major influence on the development of strategic decision-making in a pluralistic healthcare establishment. To meet the objective of this research, we started with a literature review on strategic decisionmaking in a pluralistic context. Then, we used a qualitative approach based on semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis, within two Lebanese hospitals that are representative of the Lebanese hospital basin. This case study made it possible to trace 4 decisions from which the strategic behaviors mobilized by the actors were highlighted. To cite only a few listed strategies, we take the example of strategies of adapting to the environment, involving external actors as well as collaboration and negotiation that take into consideration the turbulent environment in which these establishments are surrounded. The results of this thesis show how the strategies developed by internal and external actors led to the formation of a broad constellation of leadership. This constellation is composed of multiple strategic actors who are in constant interaction, thus influencing the decision-making process through their power relations and strategic plays. Also, the results of this thesis highlight the 7 political decision-making process that takes place in a pluralistic health care organistion, leading to a better understanding of the strategic decision-making process in these establishments. In conclusion, concrete recommendations are made for decision-makers, to better manage health care organisations. In addition, the theoretical encounter developed for the first time in this thesis, makes an interesting contribution to the theories of organizations. Ultimately, the thesis opens the way to promising lines of reflection on strategic decision-making, in a pluralistic context.
Books on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Heimer, Carol Anne. Remodeling the garbage can: Implications of the causal origins of items in decision streams. Chicago, Ill: American Bar Foundation, 1998.
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The right decision: A mathematician reveals how the secrets of decision theory can help you make the right decision every time. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010.
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Chuvikov, Dmitriy. Models and algorithms for reconstruction and examination of emergency events of road accidents based on logical artificial intelligence. 2nd ed. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1220729.
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The purpose of the monograph is to create a methodology, combined expert and simulation models, as well as algorithms and software-modeling tools for reconstruction and examination of accident events for automating decision-making by an expert center employee.
The methodology of combining and algorithms of joint work of an expert system based on logical artificial intelligence (mivar approach) and a simulation system for solving problems of reconstruction and examination of road accidents are developed; model reconstruction and examination of the accident in the formalism of the knowledge base bipartite oriented mivar nets, including analysis formulas braking qualities of the vehicle, determining the speed of a car's performance in terms of specific DTS, the formula for calculating different occasions: - slip car when braking, driving on curved sections of the road, hitting a car on the pedestrian in uniform motion and unlimited visibility; a method of generation of interfaces for designer expert systems based on the concept of mivar approach; special software in the form of expert systems "Analysis of road accident" in order to reduce the complexity of the process of calculating the disputed accidents, errors in the calculation and improve the accuracy and objectivity of the results obtained and the speed and quality of the calculations.
It can be useful to specialists of expert institutions, insurance companies, educational institutions in the field of expertise, as well as unmanned vehicles in terms of objective analysis and examination of road accidents.
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Naumov, Vladimir. Consumer behavior. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1014653.
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The book describes the basic issues concerning consumer behavior on the basis of the simulation of the decision-making process on buying behavior of customers in the sales area of the store and shopping Internet sites.
The classification of models of consumer behavior, based on research in the area of economic, social and psychological theories and empirical evidence regarding decision-making by consumers when purchasing the goods, including online stores. Methods of qualitative and quantitative research of consumer behavior, fundamentals of statistical processing of empirical data.
Attention is paid to the processes of consumers ' perception of brands (brands) and advertising messages, the basic rules for the display of goods (merchandising) and its impact on consumer decision, recommendations on the use of psychology of consumer behavior in personal sales.
Presents an integrated model of consumer behavior in the Internet environment, the process of perception of the visitor of the company, the factors influencing consumer choice of goods online.
Is intended for preparation of bachelors in directions of preparation 38.03.02 "Management", 38.03.06 "trading business" and can be used for training of bachelors in direction of training 43.03.01 "Service", and will also be useful for professionals working in the field of marketing, distribution and sales.
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Varlamov, Oleg. Mivar databases and rules. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1508665.
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The multidimensional open epistemological active network MOGAN is the basis for the transition to a qualitatively new level of creating logical artificial intelligence. Mivar databases and rules became the foundation for the creation of MOGAN. The results of the analysis and generalization of data representation structures of various data models are presented: from relational to "Entity — Relationship" (ER-model). On the basis of this generalization, a new model of data and rules is created: the mivar information space "Thing-Property-Relation". The logic-computational processing of data in this new model of data and rules is shown, which has linear computational complexity relative to the number of rules. MOGAN is a development of Rule - Based Systems and allows you to quickly and easily design algorithms and work with logical reasoning in the "If..., Then..." format. An example of creating a mivar expert system for solving problems in the model area "Geometry"is given. Mivar databases and rules can be used to model cause-and-effect relationships in different subject areas and to create knowledge bases of new-generation applied artificial intelligence systems and real-time mivar expert systems with the transition to"Big Knowledge".
The textbook in the field of training "Computer Science and Computer Engineering" is intended for students, bachelors, undergraduates, postgraduates studying artificial intelligence methods used in information processing and management systems, as well as for users and specialists who create mivar knowledge models, expert systems, automated control systems and decision support systems.
Keywords: cybernetics, artificial intelligence, mivar, mivar networks, databases, data models, expert system, intelligent systems, multidimensional open epistemological active network, MOGAN, MIPRA, KESMI, Wi!Mi, Razumator, knowledge bases, knowledge graphs, knowledge networks, Big knowledge, products, logical inference, decision support systems, decision-making systems, autonomous robots, recommendation systems, universal knowledge tools, expert system designers, logical artificial intelligence.
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Massimo, Warglien, and Masuch Michael 1949-, eds. The logic of organizational disorder. Berlin: W. de Gruyter, 1996.
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G, March James, and Weissinger-Baylon Roger, eds. Ambiguity and command: Organizational perspectives on military decision making. Boston: Pitman, 1986.
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James G. March (Other Contributor) and Roger Weissinger-Baylon (Other Contributor), eds. Ambiguity and command: Organizational perspectives on military decision making. Pitman, 1986.
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Kang, Sun Mo. An interactive organizational choice processing system to support decision making by using a prescriptive garbage can model. 1987.
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Jann, Werner. Michael D. Cohen, James G. March, and Johan P. Olsen, “A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice”. Edited by Martin Lodge, Edward C. Page, and Steven J. Balla. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199646135.013.4.
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This chapter examines “A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice,” a paper authored by Michael D. Cohen, James G. March, and Johan P. Olsen. It first discusses the assumptions of the garbage can model about decision-making in organizations, paying particular attention its three main elements: problematic preferences, unclear technologies, and fluid participation. It then considers four “relatively independent streams” and their interrelations: problems, solutions, participants, and choice opportunities. The chapter also assesses the paper’s main impact by focusing on organization theory and the original formal model before turning to the more specific areas of policy-making, administrative reform, and institutional theory.
Book chapters on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Mitchell, Renée J. "Decision-making Models." In Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing, 171–77. New York: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780367481520-35.
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Zahariadis, Nikolaos. "Bounded Rationality and Garbage Can Models of Policy-Making." In Contemporary Approaches to Public Policy, 155–74. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-50494-4_9.
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Bohnenblust, Hans, and Thomas Schneider. "Risk Appraisal — Can It Be Improved by Formal Decision Models?" In Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making, 71–87. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-5317-1_6.
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Theorell, Axel, and Jörg Stelling. "Microbial Community Decision Making Models in Batch and Chemostat Cultures." In Computational Methods in Systems Biology, 141–58. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-85633-5_9.
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AbstractMicrobial community simulations using genome scale metabolic networks (GSMs) are relevant for many application areas, such as the analysis of the human microbiome. Such simulations rely on assumptions about the culturing environment, affecting if the culture may reach a metabolically stationary state with constant microbial concentrations. They also require assumptions on decision making by the microbes: metabolic strategies can be in the interest of individual community members or of the whole community. However, the impact of such common assumptions on community simulation results has not been investigated systematically. Here, we investigate four combinations of assumptions, elucidate how they are applied in literature, provide novel mathematical formulations for their simulation, and show how the resulting predictions differ qualitatively. Crucially, our results stress that different assumption combinations give qualitatively different predictions on microbial coexistence by differential substrate utilization. This fundamental mechanism is critically under explored in the steady state GSM literature with its strong focus on coexistence states due to crossfeeding (division of labor).
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Ntalaperas, Dimitris, Iosif Angelidis, Giorgos Vafeiadis, and Danai Vergeti. "A Decision-Support System for the Digitization of Circular Supply Chains." In New Business Models for the Reuse of Secondary Resources from WEEEs, 97–107. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-74886-9_8.
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AbstractAs it has been already explained, it is very important for circular economies to minimize the wasted resources, as well as maximize the utilization value of the existing ones. To that end, experts can evaluate the materials and give an accurate estimation for both aspects. In that case, one might wonder, why is a decision support system employing machine learning necessary? While a fully automated machine learning model rarely surpasses a human’s ability in such tasks, there are several advantages in employing one. For starters, human experts will be more expensive to employ, rather than use an algorithm. One could claim that research towards developing an efficient and fully automated decision support system would end up costing more than employing actual human experts. In this instance, it is paramount to think long-term. Investing in this kind of research will create systems which are reusable, extensible, and scalable. This aspect alone more than remedies the initial costs. It is also important to observe that, if the number of wastes to be processed is more than the human experts can process in a timely fashion, they will not be able to provide their services, even if employment costs were not a concern. On the contrary, a machine learning model is perfectly capable of scaling to humongous amounts of data, conducting fast data processing and decision making. For power plants with particularly fast processing needs, an automated decision support system is an important asset. Moreover, a decision support system can predict the future based on past observations. While not always entirely spot on, it can give a future estimation about aspects such as energy required, amounts of wastes produced etc. in the future. Therefore, processing plants can plan of time and adapt to specific needs. A human expert can provide this as well to some degree, but on a much smaller scale. Especially in time series forecasting, it is interesting to note that, even if a decision support model does not predict exact values, it is highly likely to predict trends of the value increasing or decreasing in certain ranges. In the next sections, we are going to describe the four machine learning models that were developed and which compose the Decision Support System of FENIX. Section 8.1 describes how we predict the quality of the extracted materials based on features such as temperature, extruder speed, etc. Section 8.2 describes the process of extracting heuristic rules based on existing results. Section 8.3 describes how FENIX provides time-series forecasting to predict the future of a variable based on past observations. Finally, Sect. 8.4 describes the process of classifying materials based on images.
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Levinthal, Daniel A. "From the Ivy Tower to the C-suite: Garbage Can Processes and Corporate Strategic Decision Making." In The Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice: Looking Forward at Forty, 349–62. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0733-558x(2012)0000036016.
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Augier, Mie, and Jerry Guo. "Geopolitics and Garbage Cans: Understanding the Essence of Decision Making in an Interdisciplinary and Psycho-Cultural Perspective." In The Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice: Looking Forward at Forty, 431–58. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0733-558x(2012)0000036019.
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"A Review and Assessment of Ethical Decision Making Models: Is a Garbage Can Approach the Answer?" In Managerial Ethics, 289–316. Routledge, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203852460-23.
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Gibson, David R. "Turn-Taking and Geopolitics in the Making of Decisions." In The Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice: Looking Forward at Forty, 33–64. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0733-558x(2012)0000036006.
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Zimmerman, Samuel, and Tomer Ullman. "Models of Transformative Decision-Making." In Becoming Someone New, 73–99. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198823735.003.0005.
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Deciding to undergo a transformative experience present unique challenges for a reasonable decision-maker, and for any attempt to give a formal account of how people can make such decisions. This chapter focuses on the challenges of novelty and change. It develops a normative hierarchical model for decision-making over novel objects, and show how it captures the commonsense intuition that we can rationally decide to try a new experience, but also that such decisions can be graded in difficulty. It then presents a framework for how people can think about big decisions that will affect their core beliefs, desires, and ultimately themselves, by modeling this as a decision process of choosing between different selves. Empirical evidence is used to refine different sub-models of this meta-reasoning process, including the asymmetric treatment of current and future utilities, the difference between future utilities and future beliefs, and a distance function between selves that is separate from considerations of future happiness.
Conference papers on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Fardal, Harald, and Jan-Oddvar Sornes. "IS Strategic Decision-Making: A Garbage Can View." In InSITE 2008: Informing Science + IT Education Conference. Informing Science Institute, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/3262.
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Developing information systems (IS) strategies and choosing the right IS portfolio for an organization require, among other things, identifying the most appropriate IS projects, determining how best to organize the IS staff, and arranging for IS procurement. All of these actions involve decision-making. This paper analyzes IS strategic decision-making in organizations, with the Garbage Can Model (GCM) of decision-making providing the theoretical framework. Our findings show that IS strategic decision-making often happens through GCM processes, and while these processes are hard to control and predict, the decision quality tends to be high at the organizational level. At the individual level, however, Garbage Can processes tend to return low-quality IS strategic decisions.
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Labella, A., L. Martinez, and R. M. Rodriguez. "Can classical consensus models deal with large scale group decision making?" In 2017 12th International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Knowledge Engineering (ISKE). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iske.2017.8258740.
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Poon Chong, Peter, and Terrence Lalla. "A REVIEW OF BIAS IN DECISION-MAKING MODELS." In International Conference on Emerging Trends in Engineering & Technology (IConETech-2020). Faculty of Engineering, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47412/aata9467.
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A decision-making model solution is a dependent variable derived from independent variables, parameters and forcing functions. Independent variables collected in linguistic form require intuition which can be potentially biased. A collection of qualitative research papers on bias in models was perused to identify the causes of bias. Decision-making in the manufacturing, finance, law, and management industries require solutions from a complex assortment of data. The popularity of combining decision-making with artificial intelligence (AI) for intelligent systems causes concern, as it can be a predisposition to a true solution. A true solution avoids impartiality and maintains repeated results from a natural phenomenon without favoritism or discrimination. This paper appraised the development of the decision-making environment to identify the path and effect of bias on the variables used in models. The literature reviewed was associated with the design of a decision-making criterion rationalizing the application of variables. The influences on variables were observed with respect to the available resources, environment, and people. This list was further extended to consider the constraints of the resource, customer, network, and regulation fed to the structure. The involvement of bias was founded because of the need for rational decision making, cognitive misperceptions, and psychological principles. The study of variables showed the opportunity for a conscious bias from unethical actions during the development of a decision-making environment. In principle, bias may be best reduced with continuous model monitoring and fair adjustments. Ignoring these implications increases the chance of a bias decision-making model. It also influences the decision result and may be avoided with an ethical and fair quality review. The paper increases the awareness of bias in decision-making and guides actors to the identification and avoidance/reduction of bias effects. This may be a guide for the reduction of the model error to achieve a true solution.
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Li, Yang, Qing Chang, Xiaoning Jin, and Jun Ni. "Markov Decision Models for Optimal Decision Making in Bottlenecks Identification and Mitigation." In ASME 2015 International Manufacturing Science and Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/msec2015-9256.
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Existing methods for bottleneck detection can be categorized into two: methods based on stochastic analysis and methods based on data-driven analysis. The stochastic methods are accurate in estimating bottlenecks in long term, ignoring the current improvement opportunities, while the data-driven methods tend to do the opposite. In this paper, we develop an optimal policy to integrate the two methods based on Markov decision theory. The characterization of the optimal policy is provided. In addition, to implement the policy, the optimal frequency for carrying out bottleneck analysis is investigated. Numerical experiment is performed to validate the effectiveness of the optimal policy and compare it to the existing methods.
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Malak, Richard J., Lina Tucker, and Christiaan J. J. Paredis. "Composing Tradeoff Models for Multi-Attribute System-Level Decision Making." In ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2008-49970.
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In this paper, we study the prospects for modeling a system by composing tradeoff models of its components. A tradeoff model is an abstract representation of a system in terms of a predictive relationship between its top-level attributes. Designers can use this to predict the attributes they would achieve if they implemented the system. Prior approaches to generating tradeoff information are incompatible with model composition due to their reliance on classical Pareto dominance. We show that by using a generalization of this, called parameterized Pareto dominance, designers can produce tradeoff models that they can compose validly. The focus of this paper is on analyzing the modeling approach mathematically. The main result is proof that, under mild assumptions about how component-level attributes relate to system-level attributes, the approach is mathematically sound from a decision-theoretic perspective. The paper also includes a demonstration of the approach on the design of a hydraulic log splitter system using hydraulic component tradeoff models based on data about commercially-available components.
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Skyrius, Rimvydas. "Business Decision Making." In 2001 Informing Science Conference. Informing Science Institute, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/2368.
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Significant recent research in the decision support area has been concentrating on the human side of the person-technology relation. Knowledge, perceptions, beliefs and experiences have been researched in a number of works. The author has used individual interviews with business decision makers to find out their attitudes towards factors influencing the quality of business decisions. The issues discussed included features of actual right and wrong decisions, role of information sources and analytical tools, factors influencing creativity, and the role of information technology. The findings have shown that in the decision making process, available knowledge is used and new knowledge is created, and these processes are preferred to be supported by simple yet efficient support tools. The information environment surrounding business activities is getting increasingly complex. The important reasons for this complexity are: growing volumes of information of potential relevance to certain business activities; increasing number of sources of such information; and multiplying technologies for handling data and information. This is particularly true for decision making which has to encompass all relevant data, information and decision maker's knowledge to make quality decisions. Alongside with technologies for handling data and information, lately much attention has been given to knowledge management (KM) models and relations between data, information and knowledge. In knowledge-intensive activities, such as decision support, these relationships are important in terms of efficient utilisation of information resources, and especially those supported and facilitated by IT with its present capabilities. The aim of this paper is to take a look at the relations between data, information and knowledge in the context of managerial decision making, and professional learning and experience. These issues are discussed on the basis of surveys and interviews, conducted among small and medium enterprise (SME) decision makers in Lithuania in 1997-1999. The key questions of the survey have been: how important IT has become for management activities, regarding in the first place decision support, and how does it affect creativity and knowledge development. The synergy between technology and the user has been recognized to work in the areas such as using existing experiences and creating new ones on a problem and decision; working out the decision schema; stimulating creativity; capturing the details and specifics of the decision process for further uses. While IT is and can be efficiently used to manage data and information, the actual use of what is in decision support environment sometimes called stored knowledge - preprogrammed procedures for certain types of situations, sets of models, reusable queries - is rather limited. Instead, the survey has shown that decision makers prefer relatively simple tools and techniques that allow them to perform iterative buildup of decision support points towards a sufficient set to make a decision. Under a problem situation, existing practices are repeatedly tested. In the process, new associations and mental models may appear, expanding existing knowledge as well as creating new knowledge. The responses have shown that the presence of simple yet efficient decision support tools is welcome by the decision makers as having a potential to gain more with less - to provide more confidence and insurance from fatal decision mistakes, at the same time reducing the need to do extensive training, radically change existing beliefs or invest heavily into sophisticated technologies. In addition, such tools serve as support for managerial learning process and knowledge exchange, especially in the process of creativity stimulation where analogies, real-life and hypothetical situations, brainstorming and bias elimination techniques are used.
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Doraiswamy, Srikanth, Sundar Krishnamurty, and Ian R. Grosse. "Decision Making in Finite Element Analysis." In ASME 1999 Design Engineering Technical Conferences. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc99/cie-9058.
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Abstract In the absence of analytical expressions for design performance parameters, designers must often resort to either statistical or computer-based numerical techniques for performance estimation. Computer-based techniques without adequate assumptions are often very expensive and thus are infeasible for a complex design. Statistical response surface methods are cheaper, but they have poor accuracy for complex design configurations. Moreover, an initial set of data points are needed for the response surface methodology, which can only be obtained by computer-based techniques or real world data. Finally, the selection of an appropriate model to evaluate a design should be based on designer’s preferences. This paper addresses these issues through the development of a decision based modeling methodology that effectively unites the numerical and statistical approaches. In this work, concepts from decision analysis are employed to deal with trade-offs between modeling attributes from a maximum expected utility perspective to identify “overall best” finite element models based on performance attributes such as analysis accuracy, computational cost and model resolution. Its utilization in a design setup is illustrated with the aid of a windshield wiper case study for selecting the best overall finite element analysis model.
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Narayanan, Anantha, Paul Witherell, Jae Hyun Lee, K. C. Morris, and Sudarsan Rachuri. "Identifying the Material Information Requirements for Sustainable Decision Making." In ASME 2013 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2013-13284.
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Materials play a central role in product manufacturing, contributing to each phase of product development in the form of either a component or process material. As the product revolves around materials, so does much of the product information. Material information plays a significant role in the decision making process at any stage of the product life cycle, especially with respect to the sustainability of a product. Material information in the manufacturing stages of a product’s life cycle will relate to the processes used in manufacturing and assembling individual components. The material properties may determine what processes can be used and how these processes should be controlled. To support sustainable manufacturing, the impacts of material choice should be considered during design, when resources are being committed. When comparing material alternatives at design time, it is not as simple as saying one material is “more sustainable” than another. Many different factors determine the sustainability of a product, and each of these factors may be influenced by multiple material properties represented through various information requirements. In order to develop a material information model that can satisfy these information requirements, we need to carefully study the requirements from an information modeling perspective. In this paper, we use activity models to describe design and manufacturing scenarios that rely on the availability of proper material information for sustainability decision making. We will use these models to first define specific scenarios and then to identify the types of material information that is typically required in these scenarios, and collect and categorize key concepts. Based on this study, we will make recommendations that will aid the development of a useful material information model for sustainable decision making.
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Rangavajhala, Sirisha, and Achille Messac. "Decision Making and Constraint Tradeoff Visualization for Design Under Uncertainty." In ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2007-35385.
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In design optimization problems under uncertainty, two conflicting issues are generally of interest to the designer: feasibility and optimality. In this research, we adopt the philosophy that design, especially under uncertainty, is a decision making process, where the associated tradeoffs can be conveniently understood using multiobjective optimization. The importance of constraint feasibility and the associated tradeoffs, especially in the presence of equality constraints, is examined in this paper. We propose a three-step decision making framework that facilitates effective decision making under uncertainty: (1) formulating a multiobjective problem that effectively models the tradeoffs under uncertainty, (2) generating design alternatives by solving the proposed multiobjective robust design formulation, and (3) choosing a final design using filtering and constraint uncertainty visualization schemes. The proposed framework can be used to systematically explore the design space from a constraint tradeoff perspective. A tolerance synthesis example is used to illustrate the proposed decision making process.
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Arendt, Jonathan L., Daniel A. McAdams, and Richard J. Malak. "Technology Evolution Modeling and Decision Making Under Uncertainty." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-70746.
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Design is an uncertain human activity involving decisions with uncertain outcomes. Sources of uncertainty in product design include uncertainty in modeling methods, market preferences, and performance levels of subsystem technologies, among many others. The performance of a technology evolves over time, typically exhibiting improving performance. As the performance of a technology in the future is uncertain, quantifying the evolution of these technologies poses a challenge in making long-term design decisions. Here, we focus on how to make decisions using formal models of technology evolution. The scenario of a wind turbine energy company deciding which technology to invest in demonstrates a new technology evolution modeling technique and decision making method. The design of wind turbine arrays is a complex problem involving decisions such as location and turbine model selection. Wind turbines, like many other technologies, are currently evolving as the research and development efforts push the performance limits. In this research, the development of technology performance is modeled as an S-curve; slowly at first, quickly during heavy research and development effort, and slowly again as the performance approaches its limits. The S-curve model typically represents the evolution of just one performance attribute, but designers generally deal with problems involving multiple important attributes. Pareto frontiers representing the set of optimal solutions that the decision maker can select from at any point in time allow for modeling the evolution of technologies with multiple attributes. As the performance of a technology develops, the Pareto frontier shifts to a new location. The assumed S-curve form of technology development allows the designer to apply the uncertainty of technology development directly to the S-curve evolution model rather than applying the uncertainty to the future performance, giving a more focused application of uncertainty in the problem. The multi-attribute technology evolution modeling technique applied in decision-making gives designers greater insight when making long-term decisions involving technologies that evolve.
Reports on the topic "Garbage can models of decision making"
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Ketcham, Jonathan, Nicolai Kuminoff, and Christopher Powers. Which Models Can We Trust to Evaluate Consumer Decision Making? Comment on “Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly”. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21387.
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Seale, Maria, Natàlia Garcia-Reyero, R. Salter, and Alicia Ruvinsky. An epigenetic modeling approach for adaptive prognostics of engineered systems. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/41282.
Full textAbstract:
Prognostics and health management (PHM) frameworks are widely used in engineered systems, such as manufacturing equipment, aircraft, and vehicles, to improve reliability, maintainability, and safety. Prognostic information for impending failures and remaining useful life is essential to inform decision-making by enabling cost versus risk estimates of maintenance actions. These estimates are generally provided by physics-based or data-driven models developed on historical information. Although current models provide some predictive capabilities, the ability to represent individualized dynamic factors that affect system health is limited. To address these shortcomings, we examine the biological phenomenon of epigenetics. Epigenetics provides insight into how environmental factors affect genetic expression in an organism, providing system health information that can be useful for predictions of future state. The means by which environmental factors influence epigenetic modifications leading to observable traits can be correlated to circumstances affecting system health. In this paper, we investigate the general parallels between the biological effects of epigenetic changes on cellular DNA to the influences leading to either system degradation and compromise, or improved system health. We also review a variety of epigenetic computational models and concepts, and present a general modeling framework to support adaptive system prognostics.
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Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel R. Brown, Michael A. Wilson, and Albert Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands in Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico’s Major Land Resource Area 41. United States. Department of Agriculture. Southwest Climate Hub, August 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6818230.ch.
Full textAbstract:
Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability, resulting in decreased plant productivity and altered species composition, which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates and/or a change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites (ESs) and their associated state-and-transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending upon geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are necessary at the local level to inform local management decisions and help to ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level: it is based on ESs/STMs that will help landowners and government agencies to identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and to support informed decision-making for selecting management adaptations within MLRA 41.
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Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel R. Brown, Michael A. Wilson, and Albert Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands of Southeastern Colorado’s Major Land Resource Area 69. United States. Department of Agriculture. Southwest Climate Hub, January 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6876399.ch.
Full textAbstract:
Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability resulting in decreased plant productivity and altering species composition which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates, change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites (ESs) and their associated state and transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending on geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are needed at the local level to inform local management decisions and help ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The USDA Southwest Climate Hub and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level based on ESs/STMs that will help landowners and government agencies identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and support informed decision-making for selecting management adaptations within MLRA 69.
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Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel Brown, Michael Wilson, and Albert Rango Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands in Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico’s Major Land Resource Area 41. USDA Southwest Climate Hub, August 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6947060.ch.
Full textAbstract:
Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability, resulting in decreased plant productivity and altered species composition, which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates and/or a change in livestock breeds and/or grazing
practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites (ESs) and their associated state-and-transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending upon geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are necessary at the local level to inform local management decisions and help to ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The USDA Southwest Climate Hub and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the
Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level: it is based on ESs/STMs that will help landowners and government agencies to identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and to support informed decision-making for selecting management adaptations within MLRA 41.
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Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel Brown, Michael Wilson, and Albert Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands of Southeastern Colorado’s Major Land Resource Area 69. USDA Southwest Climate Hub, July 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6947062.ch.
Full textAbstract:
Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability, resulting in decreased plant productivity and altering species composition, which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates, change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices
are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites and their associated state–and-transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending upon geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are needed at the local level to inform local management decisions and help ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Southwest Climate Hub and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability
assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level, based on ecological sites and state-and-transition models that will help landowners and government agencies to identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and support informed decision-making for the selection of management adaptations within MLRA 69.
7
Wyndham, Amber, Emile Elias, Joel Brown, Michael Wilson, and Albert Rango. Drought Vulnerability Assessment to Inform Grazing Practices on Rangelands of Southeastern Colorado’s Major Land Resource Area 69. USDA Southwest Climate Hub, March 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.6965584.ch.
Full textAbstract:
Increased climate variability, including more frequent and intense drought, is projected for the southwestern region of the United States. Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation lower soil water availability resulting in decreased plant productivity and altering species composition which may affect forage quality and quantity. Reduced forage quality and increased heat stress attributable to warmer temperatures could lead to decreased livestock performance in this system, which is extensively used for livestock grazing. Mitigating the effects of increasing drought is critical to social and ecological stability in the region. Reduced stocking rates, change in livestock breeds and/or grazing practices are general recommendations that could be implemented to cope with increased climatic stress. Ecological Sites (ESs) and their associated state and transition models (STMs) are tools to help land managers implement and evaluate responses to disturbances. The projected change in climate will vary depending on geographic location. Vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies are needed at the local level to inform local management decisions and help ameliorate the effects of climate change on rangelands. The USDA Southwest Climate Hub and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) worked together to produce this drought vulnerability assessment at the Major Land Resource Area (MLRA) level based on ESs/STMs that will help landowners and government agencies identify and develop adaptation options for drought on rangelands. The assessment illustrates how site-specific information can be used to help minimize the effects of drought on rangelands and support informed decision-making for selecting management adaptations within MLRA 69.