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Eckert, Andrew. "A study of Canadian retail gasoline prices." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0016/NQ46340.pdf.
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Al-Bassir, Soleman A. "Hedonic analysis of gasoline retailing." PDXScholar, 1988. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1214.
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Researchers have difficulty modeling the influence of retailing attributes on consumer choice. The literature of retailing that has dealt with this issue has conventionally used experimental data for estimating the influence of retailing attributes on consumer behavior. The present research applies hedonic analysis to the measurement of the value of retailing attributes. This is accomplished by applying hedonic specifications to supply and demand models for the retail sales of unleaded gasoline for the purpose of estimating the influence of specified retailing attributes on retail prices. Four retailing attributes-accessibility, convenience, service, and competition-were expected to have a determinable value that was measurable through hedonic specifications. Spatial competition was expected to influence retail prices by lowering them. The value of retailing attributes was expected to be variable relative to household income. It was found that the value of the specified retailing attributes could be isolated and determined. The application of hedonic analysis to the supply and demand of unleaded gasoline provided a relatively precise and consistent market value, which was represented by the "ask" and "bid" implicit prices of these retailing attributes. Spatial competition was seen to exert an important influence on retailing, tending to lower retail prices. The value of retailing attributes was found to be variable relative to household income. The relative consistency and precision of hedonic analysis in the measurement of the value of retailing attribute was reinforced insofar as the findings were consistent with generally accepted notions of retail marketing and consumer behavior as represented in the literature in the field.
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Diehl, Daiane. "Formação do preço de etanol hidratado no Estado de São Paulo e sua relação com os mercados de açúcar e de gasolina." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-14082012-094235/.
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O principal objetivo deste estudo foi estimar um modelo analítico que explicasse a relação entre os mercados de etanol hidratado e de gasolina C, incluindo, também, efeitos de outros fatores, como o preço de açúcar nos mercados doméstico e internacional e a renda. Por sua capacidade de captar efeitos dinâmicos, utilizou-se o Modelo de Auto-Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro VEC. A análise das funções de demanda dos combustíveis mostrou que o consumo de etanol responde de forma expressiva a variações contemporâneas no próprio preço e no preço da gasolina, produto substituto nesse segmento de mercado. Já com relação à demanda de gasolina C, verifica-se que suas vendas respondem menos tanto ao próprio preço como ao do etanol. De maneira geral, a análise das funções de respostas a impulsos permite verificar que os efeitos dos choques não antecipados sobre as variáveis do modelo são de curta duração, desaparecendo, na maior parte das vezes, após o terceiro mês. A renda mostrou-se importante variável explicativa tanto para o consumo de etanol hidratado quanto de gasolina C. Um choque exógeno no preço internacional de açúcar resulta em um efeito elevado no preço do produto no mercado doméstico. De outro lado, um choque no preço doméstico de açúcar tem impacto significativo no preço do etanol anidro (elasticidade acumulada de 0,57), sendo que esses produtos concorrem pela mesma matéria-prima na indústria. Como este preço, por sua vez, representa uma variável proxy para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor, pode-se afirmar que 60% das variações de preço neste segmento são transmitidas ao preço do combustível no mercado varejista. A análise da decomposição das variâncias do erro de previsão evidenciou que a variável que tem maior impacto sobre o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo é o preço do etanol anidro (proxy do preço do etanol hidratado no segmento produtor). Os principais determinantes da venda de etanol hidratado no varejo são a renda, o preço do etanol hidratado combustível no varejo e o do etanol anidro no segmento produtor. Já com relação às vendas de gasolina C no varejo, o principal determinante é a renda, enquanto as demais variáveis pouco contribuem para explicar suas variações. Finalmente, a análise da previsão dentro da amostra para o preço do etanol hidratado no segmento varejista sugere que este preço assumiria um patamar mais elevado, não fosse a atual política de controle de preços dos derivados do petróleo adotada no Brasil. Nas duas últimas safras do período estudado, o preço praticado está, em média, 23,7% abaixo do previsto pelo modelo estimado neste estudo. Vale ressaltar que o modelo estimado capta o padrão médio do comportamento da série, dados os fundamentos de mercado considerados, os quais explicam pelo menos 76% das variações do preço do etanol hidratado no varejo.The main objective of this study was to estimate an analytical model to explain the relationship between the markets of hydrated ethanol fuel and gasoline C, including effects of other factors such as sugar prices in the domestic and the International markets and income. Because of its ability to capture dynamic effects, the Auto-regression Model with Vector Error Correction VEC was used. Analysis of the demand function showed ethanol fuel consumption significantly responds to contemporary variations of its price and gasoline price, replacement product in this market segment. Regarding the demand for gasoline C, it appears that sales respond less to its price and ethanol price. In general, analysis of the response functions to impulses allows to verify that the effect of unanticipated shocks on model variables are of short duration and disappears, in most cases, after three months. Income proved to be important in ethanol and gasoline C consumption. An exogenous shock in the international sugar price results in a large effect on the product price in the domestic market. Therefore, a shock in the domestic sugar price has a significant impact on the anhydrous ethanol price (accumulated elasticity of 0.57), once these products compete for raw material in the sector. Given that this price represents a proxy variable for the hydrous ethanol price for the industry, 60% of the price in this segment is transmitted to the fuel price in the retail market. A decomposition analysis of forecast error variance showed that the variable with greater impact on the hydrated ethanol fuel price in the retail market is the anhydrous ethanol price (proxy of the hydrated ethanol price in the industry). The main determinants of hydrated ethanol sales in the retail market are the income, the hydrated ethanol fuel price and the anhydrous ethanol fuel price in the industry. Gasoline C sales in the retail market are mostly determined by income, while the other variables contribute little to explain its variations. Finally, the analysis of the in-sample forecast for the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market suggests that this price would assume a higher level, if there were not the current policy of controlling prices of petroleum derivatives adopted in Brazil. In the last two seasons of the analysis, the price was on average 23.7% below that predicted by the model estimated in this study. It is noteworthy that the estimated model captures the average standard of the series, given the market fundaments considered, which explain at least 76% of the variations in the hydrated ethanol price in the retail market.
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Kardell, Jonas, and Oscar Oelrich. "An examination of sticky prices in gasoline pricing in Sweden 2001-2011." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-175840.
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Firgo, Matthias, Dieter Pennerstorfer, and Christoph Weiss. "Network Centrality and Market Prices: Empirical Evidence." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.11.032.
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We empirically investigate the importance of centrality (holding a central position in a spatial network) for strategic interaction in pricing for the Austrian retail gasoline market. Results from spatial autoregressive models suggest that the gasoline station located most closely to the market center - defined as the 1-median location - exerts the strongest effect on pricing decisions of other stations. We conclude that centrality influences firms' pricing behavior and further find that the importance of centrality increases with market size.
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Weiss, Christoph, Dieter Pennerstorfer, and Matthias Firgo. "Centrality and Pricing in Spatially Differentiated Markets: The Case of Gasoline." Elsevier, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2015.03.009.
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We highlight the importance of "centrality" for pricing. Firms characterized by a more central position in a spatial network are more powerful in terms of having a stronger impact on their competitors' prices and on equilibrium prices. These propositions are derived from a simple theoretical model and investigated empirically for the retail gasoline market of Vienna, Austria. We compute a measure of network centrality based on the locations of gasoline stations in the road network. Results from a spatial autoregressive model show that prices of gasoline stations are more strongly correlated with prices of central competitors.
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Firgo, Matthias, Dieter Pennerstorfer, and Christoph Weiss. "Network Centrality and Market Prices: An Empirical Note." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2015. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4651/1/wp206.pdf.
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We empirically investigate the importance of centrality (holding a central position in a spatial network) for strategic interaction in pricing for the Austrian retail gasoline market. Results from spatial autoregressive models suggest that the gasoline station located most closely to the market center - defined as the 1-median location - exerts the strongest effect on pricing decisions of other stations. We conclude that centrality influences firms' pricing behavior and further find that the importance of centrality increases with market size. (authors' abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Tello, Gamarra Jorge Estuardo. "Transmissão de preços entre os mercados do etanol e da gasolina desde o lançamento dos carros flex-fuel, no mercado brasileiro." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/17414.
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Quando dois ou mais mercados, anteriormente separados, começam a apresentar certa convergência de preços, diz-se que eles estão integrados. Geralmente, os pesquisadores têm objetivado o estudo da integração entre mercados externos e internos (integração espacial) ou entre os diferentes elos de uma cadeia produtiva (integração vertical), mas de um único produto. Após uma importante mudança na tecnologia, concretizada através do lançamento dos motores flex-fuel no Brasil, a presente pesquisa teve por desafio analisar a existência de integração entre os mercados da gasolina e do etanol, dita como "integração de mercados por substituição". Para tal fim, e depois de filtradas as séries de preços mediante os testes de estacionariedade (Dickey-Fuller Aumentado e Phillips-Perron), foi feito uso de modelos de transmissão de preços, mais especificamente os testes de Cointegração, o do Mecanismo de Correção de Erro (MCE) e o da Causalidade. No período em análise (de março de 2003 até julho de 2008), foi constatada a presença de cointegração entre os dois mercados. Também foi observado que um incremento de 1% no preço da gasolina é responsável por um incremento de 2,74% no preço do etanol. Ainda que tenha sido pequeno o parâmetro do Mecanismo de Correção de Erro obtido, ele indica que é possível relacionar o comportamento de curto com o de longo prazo, nas séries analisadas. Dos resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que os mercados do etanol e da gasolina estão integrados a longo prazo, onde variações no preço da gasolina causam variações no do etanol (GRANGER, 1969).When two or more markets, previously separated, start showing a price convergence, it is possible to say that they are integrated. Usually, the researchers have focused the integration study between external and internal market (spatial integration) or between the different links of a productive chain (vertical integration), but just of an unique product. After an important technological change, materialized in the releasing of flex-fuel motors in Brazil, this work had as a challenge analyze the existence of the integration between the gasoline and ethanol markets, referred as "integration of substitution markets". Therefore, after filtering the prices series through stationary tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron), it was made the use of price transmission models, specifically the cointegration tests, and the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and the causality. In the analyzed period (from March 2003 to July 2008), it was verified the existence of cointegration between the two markets. Also it was observed that an increase of 1% in the gasoline price is responsible for the increase in 2.74% of the ethanol price. Although it was small the parameter of the correction mechanism in the obtained error, it points out that is possible to relate the behavior in the short and long term, in the analyzed series. Taking in consideration the obtained results, we arrived to the conclusion that the ethanol and gasoline markets are integrated in the long term, where variations in the gasoline price cause variations in the ethanol market.
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Salvini, Roberta Rodrigues. "Investigando a assimetria na transmissão dos preços dos combustíveis no Estado de São Paulo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-03102016-174903/.
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Este trabalho busca apurar a existência de assimetria na transmissão dos preços dos combustíveis no atacado para o varejo no Estado de São Paulo. Desde a introdução dos veículos flex-fuel no mercado brasileiro em 2003, o consumidor pode optar por abastecer com a gasolina comum ou com o etanol hidratado, sendo a sua escolha influenciada pelas variações na relação dos preços desses combustíveis, o que evidencia a importância de um estudo para entender o comportamento desses preços. Para tal, medias mensais dos preços da gasolina comum e do etanol hidratado nos níveis de distribuição e revenda, referentes ao estado paulista, para o período de novembro de 2002 a abril de 2015 foram consideradas na condução da analise empírica, que compreende a estimação de Modelos de Correção de Erros. Os resultados indicam a presença de assimetria na transmissão dos preços de ambos os combustíveis do atacado para o varejo, contudo esta se manifesta somente no curto prazo. Ademais, constata-se no mercado de combustíveis a assimetria positiva, de modo que no curto prazo aumentos nos preços no atacado elevam com maior intensidade os preços ao consumidor, em comparação a decréscimos nos preços ao consumidor provocados por choques negativos nos preços de distribuição. Tal assimetria pode proceder de uma combinação entre as reações dos consumidores as futuras oscilações nos preços e a gestão de estoques por parte dos postos de combustíveis.This work aims to determine the existence of asymmetry in the transmission of fuel prices in the wholesale to retail in the State of Sao Paulo. Since the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles in the Brazilian market in 2003, the consumer can choose to fill up with regular gasoline or hydrated ethanol, and your choice is influenced by variations in the relative prices of these fuels, which highlights the importance of a study to understand the behavior of these prices. To this end, monthly average of prices of regular gasoline and hydrated ethanol in the levels of distribution and resale, for the State of Sao Paulo, for the period November 2002 to April 2015 were considered in conducting empirical analysis, which includes the estimation of Error Correction Models. The results indicate the presence of asymmetry in transmission of price of both fuels of wholesale for retail, however it is manifested in the short term only. Moreover, it appears in the fuel market the positive asymmetry, so that in the short term increases in wholesale prices rise more strongly consumer prices compared to decreases in consumer prices caused by negative shocks in distribution prices. Such asymmetry can come from a combination of consumer reactions to future fluctuations in prices and inventory management by the fuel stations.
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Marjotta-Maistro, Marta Cristina. "Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina no processo de desregulamentação." Universidade de São Paulo, 2002. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-20112002-090448/.
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A abertura do setor sucroalcooleiro iniciou-se com a extinção do Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool em 1990, que controlava as suas atividades desde 1933. A liberação dos preços da gasolina C ao consumidor se deu em 1996, generalizando a um processo de liberação no setor como um todo. O objetivo geral deste trabalho foi analisar e caracterizar o mercado de combustíveis, relacionando os efeitos de mudanças em variáveis associadas à oferta e demanda sobre o comportamento dos agentes num mercado parcialmente liberado, ou seja, entre os anos de 1995 e 2000. Os objetivos específicos foram estimar dois modelos: Modelo de Ajuste pelo Preço e Modelo de Ajuste pela Quantidade. O primeiro modelo foi composto por oito equações, sendo quatro delas de quantidades e quatro de preços dos combustíveis gasolina C ao varejo e ao atacado, álcool anidro ao produtor e gasolina A na refinaria. O segundo modelo foi composto por cinco equações, sendo uma da quantidade de gasolina C do varejo e quatro dos preços dos combustíveis. Os métodos de estimação foram Mínimos Quadrados em Dois Estágios para o primeiro modelo e Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários para o segundo. A distinção entre dois modelos ocorreu devido ao fato de que o sistema de preços de mercado ainda não era eficaz em função do caráter de transição conferido ao período da pesquisa. Com o primeiro modelo verificou-se o grau em que as forças de mercado já operavam entre 1995 e 2000. Com o segundo, procurou-se retratar a dinâmica de ajustamento em um mercado no qual as quantidades ofertadas eram pré-determinadas e os preços se ajustavam a partir de condições previamente estabelecidas pelo governo para a comercialização nos setores sucroalcooleiro e de combustíveis.Com as estimativas do segundo modelo foram calculados os Multiplicadores de Impacto de Theil, possibilitando avaliar os efeitos sobre a qua ntidade e os preços dos combustíveis de choques nas variáveis exógenas do modelo. Os resultados do primeiro modelo permitiram concluir: (a) que os ajustes via preços foram pouco eficazes para influenciar alterações nas quantidades dos combustíveis; e (b) a existência de certa inércia nos movimentos de preços, típica dos sistemas de controle de preços como os que vinham prevalecendo na década de 1990. Com os resultados do segundo modelo, as principais conclusões foram: (a) as variações de demanda tendiam a ser atendidas sem grandes alterações nos preços da gasolina e dos seus componentes; (b) os ajustes de preços ao atacado da gasolina C e da gasolina A, ainda que moderados, eram repassados ao varejo parcialmente; (c) o governo tendia a absorver os choques externos de preços não os repassando imediatamente ao varejo e o varejo não repassava, na mesma proporção, ao consumidor final. Assim, os resultados da pesquisa refletiram setores ainda operando sob a égide do Estado, que controlava suas operações sem necessariamente atender à lógica econômica. À medida que os ajustes nos setores sucroalcooleiro e de combustíveis passarem a ser guiados pelos preços de mercado, alterações de demanda e oferta passarão a se refletir nos preços dos vários elos desses setores, possivelmente nos moldes do Modelo de Ajuste pelo Preço discutido nesta pesquisa.The economic opening of the sugar-ethanol market was started with the extinction of the "Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool" ( SugarEthanol Institute ) in 1990, which controlled its activities since 1933. The deregulation of gasoline C prices to the consumer took place in 1996, generating the deregulation process in the sector as a whole. The general aim of this study was to analyze and characterize the fuel market, relating the change effects in associated variables to the supply and demand about the agents' behavior in a market partly deregulated, that is, between 1995 and 2000. The specific aims were to estimate two models: Price Adjustment and Quantity Adjustment Models. The first was made up of eight equations, being four of quantities and four of fuel prices retail and wholesale gasoline C prices, anhydrous ethanol to producer and gasoline A at refineries. The second model was made up of five equations, being one of gasoline C to retailing and four of fuel prices. The estimating methods for the first model were Minimum Squares in Two Stages, whereas Ordinaries Minimum Squares were used for the second one. The distinction between the two models was made necessary due to the fact that the market price system was not efficient yet, because of the transitional condition during the time of the research was done. Through the first model it was checked the degree the market forces already operated between 1995 and 2000. Through the second one, it was attempted to show the dynamic of adjustments in a market, which the amounts offered were pre-determined and the prices adjusted themselves based on commercialization conditions to the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors, previously established by the government. Based on the estimates from the second model, it was figured the Impact Multipliers of Theil, allowing to evaluate the effects over quantities and prices of shock fuels in exogenous variables of the model. Results of the first model allow to conclude: (a) that adjustments via prices were little efficient to influence changes in fuel amounts and; (b) the existence of a certain inertness of prices movements, typical of price control systems like the ones being practiced in the 1990's. Through the results of model two, the main conclusions were: (a) the demand variations tended to be met without major changes in the price of gasoline and its compounds; (b) the wholesale gasoline C and gasoline A at refineries prices adjustments, even moderated, were reposed partly to retailing; (c) the government had a tendency to absorve the external price shocks and did not repose immediately to retailing and the retailing did not repose, at the same extent, to the final consumer. Therefore, the research results reflected sectors still operating under State domain, which controlled their operations without necessarily meeting the economic logic. As the adjustments in the sugar-ethanol and fuel sectors start to be dictated by market prices and demand-supply changes, they will start to reflect on prices of the various links of this sector, possibly in the form of the Price Adjustment Model, discussed in this study.
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Eriksson, Rickard. "Price responses to changes in costs and demand." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics (Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.) (EFI), 2001. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/554.htm.
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Lehmann, Kurt. "Understanding the Effects of Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors on Public Transit Ridership Trends." Scholar Commons, 2018. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/7190.
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Public transit, an important mobility service for many, has incurred ridership decline in the U.S. for the past three years. In 2014, U.S. transit ridership was 10.74 billion unlinked passenger trips. In 2015, total ridership was 1.0 percent fewer, and the 2016 decrease was 2.2 percent from 2015. The consistent abandonment of transit in the U.S. does not seem to be ending. In 2017, ridership predicted from year-to-date data is 2.4 percent less than 2016. Furthermore, per capita ridership has decreased 17 percent since 1980. Both the short-term ridership trend and long-term per capita ridership trend is concerning given the increased spending and service provision during the same periods.
In seeking to understand the many factors that influence transit ridership trends, it is important to analyze each so that policymakers and practitioners can respond and position transit accordingly. Numerous demographic and economic phenomena help explain this decline in transit use. This research focuses on five of these considerations – age, vehicle availability, telecommuting, fuel price, and geographical distribution of the population.
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Saussay, Aurélien. "Three essays on energy prices and the energy transition." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEH156.
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Cette thèse tire parti de la remarquable volatilité des prix de l'énergie, tant temporelle que géographique, au cours des deux dernières décennies pour identifier les impacts de l'augmentation du prix des énergies fossiles sur les agents économiques. L'une des principales sources de cette volatilité, la révolution des gaz de schistes aux Etats-Unis, est tout d’abord examinée, avant d'analyser deux sujets de politiques économiques en lien avec la mise en place de la taxation du carbone : le risque de relocalisation de l'investissement industriel résultant d'une dégradation de la compétitivité, et les impacts redistributifs de l'augmentation des prix de l'essence pour les ménages.Le premier chapitre réalise une analyse statistique détaillée d'une base de données originale de 40 000 puits de gaz de schistes américains afin de calibrer un modèle technico-économique de la profitabilité de l'extraction du gaz de schistes, et conclut que la révolution des gaz de schistes n'est pas reproductible en Europe continentale. Le second chapitre combine une base de données de 70 000 transactions de fusions et acquisitions industrielles recouvrant 41 pays sur une période de 20 ans avec un indice des prix de l'énergie industriels, pour identifier l'impact des prix relatifs de l'énergie sur la localisation de l'investissement industriel. Les résultats impliquent que les firmes tendent à entreprendre plus d'investissements transfrontaliers lorsque les prix domestiques de l'énergie augmentent relativement aux prix étrangers, ce qui confirme l’hypothèse de Pollution Haven. Des simulations contrefactuelles démontrent toutefois que la magnitude de cet effet reste limitée. Le troisième chapitre introduit un modèle dynamique simple de la consommation d'essence des ménages, appliquant le cadre des habitudes rationnelles à la représentation de la dimension intertemporelle de la demande d'essence. Ce modèle est ensuite estimé sur un micropanel de ménages issu du PSID entre 1999 et 2015, en combinaison avec des prix localisés de l'essence. Ces estimations démontrent que la consommation d'essence des ménages est sujette à la formation d'habitude et aux anticipations, et résultent en une élasticité de long terme de -0,88. Des micro-simulations complémentaires suggèrent également l'existence d'interactions entre l'hétérogénéité des comportements dynamiques et la régressivité de l'augmentation du prix de l'essence.Les résultats de cette thèse renforcent la nécessité des politiques économiques compensatoires visant à améliorer l'acceptabilité de la taxation du carbone par les agents économiques, et fournit des outils qui peuvent contribuer à leur conception et leur calibrationThis thesis takes advantage of the remarkable volatility of energy prices across both time and space over the past two decades to identify the impacts of increased fossil fuel energy prices on economic agents. It first examines one of the main sources of this renewed energy price volatility, the U.S. shale gas revolution, before turning to the analysis of two policy issues related to the implementation of carbon pricing: the risk of industrial investment relocation as a consequence of degraded competitiveness, and the distributional impacts of increased gasoline prices for households. The first chapter performs a detailed statistical analysis of an original dataset of 40,000 U.S. shale gas wells to calibrate a techno-economic model of shale gas extraction profitability, and finds that the shale gas revolution is not transferrable to continental Europe. The second chapter combines a database of 70,000 industrial M&A transactions covering 20 years and 41 countries with a sectoral industrial energy price index to identify the impact of relative energy prices on industrial investment location. Findings imply that firms tend to engage in more cross-border investments when their domestic energy prices increase in relative terms against foreign prices, which broadly supports the pollution haven hypothesis. Counterfactual policy simulations show that this effect is limited though. The third chapter develops a simple dynamic model of household gasoline consumption, using the rational habits framework to capture the intertemporal dimension of gasoline demand. This model is then estimated on PSID household-level data between 1999 and 2015 using localized gasoline prices. Estimation results show that households exhibit habits formation and forward-looking behavior in their gasoline consumption, and find a -0.88 long term price elasticity. Micro-simulations also find suggestive evidence of interactions between dynamic heterogeneity and the regressivity of gasoline price increases. The findings of this thesis strengthen the case for compensatory policies aimed at improving carbon pricing acceptance by economic agents, and provide tools that can contribute to their design and calibration
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D´Oliveira, Rúbia Baptista. "Quais são os determinantes do preço do combustível gasolina no mercado brasileiro?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/20203.
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Esse artigo analisa os determinantes do preço do combustível gasolina. Atualmente a gasolina é utilizada por aproximadamente 60% dos veículos leves no Brasil e tem uma parcela relevante no consumo das famílias, portanto é preciso que o consumidor conheça profundamente como funciona o mercado desse produto, desde o produtor até o consumidor final, e principalmente que saiba como é formado o seu preço. O artigo busca então compreender quais são os determinantes do preço de revenda do combustível gasolina no mercado brasileiro e também entender por que ocorrem divergências nos preços dentro de uma mesma cidade.
This article analyzes the determinants of the price of gasoline fuel. Currently, gasoline is used by approximately 60% of light vehicles in Brazil, and has a significant share of household consumption, so it is necessary for the consumer to know deeply how the market of this product works, from the producer to the final consumer, and especially knows how its price is formed. The article then seeks to understand the determinants of the price of gasoline fuel in the Brazilian market, and also to understand why there are divergences in prices within the same city.
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Hrabalík, Ondřej. "Jak reagují čerpací stanice v České Republice na změnu ceny ropy na burze?" Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-205880.
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Aim of this thesis was finding out whether there is asymmetry on gasoline market in Czech republic, which is common knowledge or if asymmetry is only illusion. With daily data about gasoline and diesel prices from CZ market and also daily Brent Crude Oil price, thesis tires to prove that there is no asymmetry on the market. Analysis was done with asymmetric error correction model and further testing of asymmetry with koeficients from ECM. Results yield that both gasoline and diesel markets show rather symmetrical reaction on entry price change. Asymmetry was proven only in few lags and final statement is that asymmetry on market in Czech republic is rather illusion then reality.
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Noel, Michael David 1971. "Edgeworth price cycles in retail gasoline markets." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8416.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2002.Includes bibliographical references (p. 135-137).
In this dissertation, I present three essays that are motivated by the interesting and dynamic price-setting behavior of firms in Canadian retail gasoline markets. In the first essay, I examine behavior at the market level for 19 Canadian cities over 574 weeks. I find three distinct pricing patterns: 1. standard cost-based pricing, 2. sticky pricing, and 3. steep, asymmetric retail price cycles that mirror the Edgeworth Cycles of Maskin & Tirole [1988b]. I use a Markov switching regression to estimate the prevalence of the regimes, the pattern of markup in each, and the structural characteristics of the price cycles themselves. Retail price cycles prevail in over 40% of the sample. I show they are more prevalent when there is a greater penetration of small, independent firms. The cycle is accelerated and amplified in markets with very many small firms. Where small firms are few, sticky pricing dominates. In the second essay, I present a new station-level micro-dataset that reveals especially strong retail price cycles in the Toronto market. I show that it is large firms who first reset each new cycle by significantly raising prices. The one-time average price increase is 5.6 cents per liter, or 170% of the average margin. The magnitude of the increase is decreasing in the previous markup and increasing in expected future wholesale prices. I show that small independent firms wait longest before responding, and the entire process is usually complete in 24 hours. From the top of the cycle, I find small firms undercut first and trigger each new round of tit-for-tat price undercutting.
(cont.) In the third essay, I explore the theoretical conditions that best foster price cycles and how those conditions affect the character of the cycles themselves. Using computational techniques, I search for Markov Perfect Equilibria under several models of duopoly and triopoly and for various model-specific parameter values. I consider degrees of differentiation, capacity constraints, sharing rules, discount factors and initial beliefs about price leading behavior. I find Edgeworth price cycles with interesting characteristics under many conditions and focal prices under others.
by Michael David Noel.
Ph.D.
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Davis, Michael C. "Dynamic models of price changes /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3026374.
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Muehlegger, Erich J. "Essays on gasoline price spikes, environmental regulation of gasoline content, and incentives for refinery operation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32402.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 145-153).
Since 1999, regional retail and wholesale gasoline markets in the United States have experienced significant price volatility, both intertemporally and across geographic markets. In particular, gasoline prices in California, Illinois and Wisconsin have spiked occasionally well above gasoline prices in nearby states. The three chapters of my thesis study the relationship between gasoline price spikes, environmental regulation of gasoline content, unanticipated refinery outages and other recent structural changes in the domestic oil market. In the first chapter, I detail current regulations related to gasoline content. Implemented regionally to address local mobile-source emissions, gasoline content regulations increase costs to refiners, transporters and distributors of gasoline, as well as reduce the fungibility of gasoline across different regions. Chapter one provides a summary of the regulations and a qualitative description the costs the regulations impose on refiners, transporters and distributors of gasoline. In chapter two, I estimate two distinct effects of gasoline content regulations in California, Illinois and Wisconsin: (i) the effect of increased production costs due to supplementary regulation, and (ii) the effect of incompatibility between these blends and gasoline meeting federal reformulated gasoline standards. Using a structural model based on the production optimization problem of refiners, I simulate wholesale prices for jet fuel, diesel and four blends of gasoline in each geographic market. I then specify a counterfactual in which gasoline in the three states met federal requirements.
(cont.) Using a similar methodology, I also estimate the effect of two structural changes in the domestic oil market, (i) changes in refinery ownership and (ii) limited expansion of domestic refining capacity. I estimate the effect of increased refining costs is 4.5, 3.0 and 2.9 cents per gallon in California, Illinois and Wisconsin. The effect of incompatibility with federal RFG criteria, conditional on an in-state refinery outage, is 4.8, 6.6 and 7.1 cents per gallon in California, Illinois and Wisconsin. Controlling for the magnitude of local outages in these areas, I estimate that 72, 92 and 91 percent of price spikes created by local refinery outages could be mitigated by compatibility with federal RFG standards. In chapter three I study the challenge faced by regulators of differentiating strategic withholding of capacity from unreliable production. If a regulator cannot verify "unplanned" outages, the regulator cannot credibly distinguish between strategic behavior by producers and unlucky realizations of facility reliability. I specify a model in which a firm's choices of production and maintenance affect facility reliability and study how incentives arising from ownership of more than one facility affect facility reliability. I then statistically test whether the pattern of incidents is consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. I find statistically significant evidence that ownership of other local refining capacity is correlated with the probability of an outage at a given refinery. In addition, the relationship between ownership and incident likelihood is greatest for markets with special gasoline formulations, where a refinery outage has the largest effect of gasoline prices. In these markets, expected incident likelihood is 30 percent greater for a refinery affiliated with another refinery that it is for an unaffiliated refinery.
by Erich Johann Muehlegger.
Ph.D.
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Vogt, Camila de Moura. "Competição e dispersão de preços de gasolina e etanol no mercado brasileiro de combustíveis: evidências do município de São Paulo." Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-16092014-171804/.
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O fenômeno da dispersão de preços é mais comum do que se supõe a partir da microeconomia básica. O presente estudo busca avaliar a importância dos custos de procura na dispersão de preços de gasolina e etanol no município de São Paulo. Para tanto, são utilizados como referenciais teóricos modelos de dispersão e estudos de estruturas de mercado. A parte empírica contempla duas etapas, na primeira é estimado qual o mercado relevante para o varejo de combustíveis e, posteriormente, a descrição da dispersão na área. Os dados dos preços de varejo são coletados semanalmente desde o ano de 2001 e a série histórica foi cedida pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis - ANP. Os resultados das estimações nos mostram que, apesar da dispersão, possivelmente existe maior relação com a heterogeneidade dos estabelecimentos do que com a busca do consumidor.The price dispersion phenomenon is more common than might be supposed from basic microeconomics. This study aim to evaluate the importance of search costs in the dispersion of fuel prices in São Paulo city. As theoretical reference, we use models of price dispersion and market structures studies. The empirical part has two stages, first is estimated the relevant retail fuel market, and then we describe the dispersion in the area. The retail prices data of gasoline and ethanol have been collected since 2001 and the time series was provided by the Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis - ANP. The results shown that although there is dispersion it is more closely related to the establishments heterogeneity, than with consumer search.
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Sauer, William. "Fuel excise taxes and consumer gasoline demand comparing average retail price effects and gasoline tax effects /." CONNECT TO ELECTRONIC THESIS, 2007. http://dspace.wrlc.org/handle/1961/4136.
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Garcia, João Marcos Bastos Vilar. "Asymmetric price adjustment and loss aversion." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16551.
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Asymmetric price adjustment is observed in several markets, most notably gasoline retail: a cost increase is passed through to consumers faster than a cost decrease. I develop a consumer-search model that generates this prediction under loss aversion. A fraction of consumers are ignorant of market prices and can choose to acquire information costly, allowing firms to profit with price dispersion. Asymmetric price adjustment emerges if consumers are loss-averse in relation to a reference price. Higher costs make consumers more willing to search, but also lower the probability of finding low prices, generating convexity in the cost-price relation.
Ajuste assimétrico de preço é observado em diversos mercados, notavelmente varejo de gasolina: um aumento de custo é passado para os consumidores mais rápido do que uma redução. Eu desenvolvo um modelo de busca dos consumidores que gera essa predição sob aversão à perda. Uma fração dos consumidores ignora os preços no mercado e pode adquirir informação a um custo, o que permite que as firmas tenham lucro com dispersão de preços. Ajuste assimétrico de preço emerge se os consumidores são aversos a perdas em relação a um preço de referência. Custos mais altos tornam os consumidores mais dispostos a procurar, mas também diminui as chances de encontrar preços baixos, gerando uma relação custo-preço convexa.
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Alcaraz, Rafael. "Price Divergence in the Gasoline Store Industry: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin965226377.
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Evangelista, Lauren E. "Ethanol and the U.S. Economy: Unintended Consequences." Thesis, Boston College, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/689.
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Thesis advisor: Frank GollopThis thesis explores the unanticipated consequences of producing ethanol for use as a transportation fuel in the United States. Statistical analysis is conducted to determine the effect that increased ethanol production has on the prices of two essential American commodities: corn and gasoline. A simultaneous system of the demand and supply of corn is developed to estimate the effect of ethanol on the price of corn. The results of this model suggest that during the period 1986-2001, corn demanded for ethanol production caused the price of corn to be 19% higher than it otherwise would have been. This result is noteworthy because the majority of American foods contain some type of corn product. A second simultaneous system is developed to determine the effect of ethanol on the price of gasoline. Neither a change in the price of ethanol nor a change quantity of ethanol per gallon of gasoline was found to have a significant impact on the price of gasoline
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2009
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: College Honors Program
Discipline: Economics Honors Program
Discipline: Economics
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Nappo, Márcio. "A demanda por gasolina no Brasil: uma avaliação de suas elasticidades após a introdução dos carros bicombustíveis." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2069.
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Previous issue date: 2007-03-02T00:00:00ZA questão central que buscou-se responder no presente estudo foi: qual o impacto dos veículos flex-fuel sobre a demanda por gasolina no Brasil? Para tentar responder esta questão foi estimada a função demanda por gasolina no Brasil e suas elasticidades-preço e renda, para o período de agosto de 1994 a julho de 2006 (era pós-Plano Real), utilizando-se técnicas de cointegração para avaliar a existência de uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre variáveis do modelo. Com a renovação da frota automotiva, centrada cada vez mais nos veículos flex-fuel, cuja participação nas vendas nacionais de veículos novos deve ultrapassar os 70% em 2006, surge a preocupação de que o deslocamento do consumo de gasolina pelo álcool hidratado leve a excedentes crescentes de gasolina no Brasil. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo indicam que a demanda por gasolina no Brasil é inelástica no longo prazo, tanto em relação a variações nos preços deste combustível, quanto a alterações na renda dos consumidores. Os valores estimados para as elasticidades-preço e renda de longo prazo foram de -0,197 e 0,685, respectivamente. Também foi estimado o coeficiente de uma variável binária de inclinação associada ao preço da gasolina, incluída no modelo com o objetivo de capturar os impactos da entrada do flex-fuel sobre a curva de demanda por gasolina a partir de março de 2003. Esta variável binária de inclinação apresentou-se com um coeficiente de aproximadamente -0,137. Isto significa que a partir de março de 2003 há uma significativa mudança na elasticidade-preço da demanda por gasolina, que se torna mais elástica, saindo de -0,197 para -0,334. Este resultado indica que o mercado nacional de combustíveis de ciclo Otto pode estar passando por mudanças estruturais, para as quais a entrada dos veículos flex-fuel é a causa mais provável e que o álcool hidratado tem se tornado um substituto menos imperfeito da gasolina.
The central question that this study seeks to answer is: What is the impact of flex-fuel vehicles on the demand for gasoline in Brazil? To attempt to answer this question, the function demand for gasoline in Brazil was estimated, as were the price and income elasticities, for the period August 1994 through July 2006 (post Plano Real era), using cointegration techniques to evaluate the existence of a long-term balance relationship between the model’s variables. With the renewal of the automotive fleet increasingly centered on flex-fuel vehicles, whose market share in the domestic sales of new vehicles should be over 70% in 2006, there is some concern that the shift from consumption of gasoline to hydrated alcohol may lead to a growing excess of gasoline in Brazil. The results obtained in this study indicate that the demand for gasoline in Brazil is inelastic in the long term, in relation both to the price variations of this fuel and to the alterations in consumer income. The amounts estimated for the price and long-term income elasticities were –0.197 and 0.685, respectively. An estimate was made of the coefficient of a dummy inclination variable, associated with the price of gasoline and included in the model to capture the impact flex-fuel has on the gasoline demand curve, starting in March 2003. This dummy inclination variable had a coefficient of approximately –0.137, meaning that, as of March 2003, there is a significant change in the price elasticity of the demand for gasoline, which becomes more elastic, going from –0.197 to –0.334. This result indicates that the Otto cycle’s national fuel market might be facing structural changes in which the launching of flexfuel vehicles is the most likely cause and that hydrated alcohol has become a less imperfect substitute for gasoline.
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Rayska, Tetyana. "An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand in the short and long run." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-15010.
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The rapid growth of gasoline consumption in the USA for the last decades brings much concern to scientists and politicians. Therefore many researchers investigated the influence of the main factors that have an impact on gasoline demand. In our study we tried to estimate gasoline demand in the USA, using national time series data for the period 1984-2010. Gasoline demand function considered in this paper includes price, income, fuel efficiency and gasoline consumption in previous year, as the main explanatory variables. The model is estimated using simultaneous equations and cointegration and error correction model (ECM). The results of both methods show a significant price and income effect on gasoline demand. The price is found inelastic and its impact on gasoline demand is very small, however when we correct for endogeneity of price variable, we obtain higher price elasticity. The results on income elasticities obtained from two methods are dubious, since the two methods gave us the different results. In whole, an income raise will lead to an increase of consumption, gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short-run, while in the long-run it is found to be elastic according to 2SLS method, while the results of cointegration method indicate that gasoline response to income changes is higher in the short-run than in the long-run. Lag of error term suggests that around 57% of adjustment between short-run and long-run occurs during the first year.
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Chiang, Chang-Ju. "The effects of government regulated price transparency on the retail gasoline market in Taiwan." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2017. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/66938/.
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This thesis studies possible outcomes of the government’s policy (increased price transparency) to the retail gasoline market. Chapter 2 investigates one of possible outcome of the government’s price policy on the retail price setting and provides new evidence of ‘hot air balloons and bricks’ that retail prices respond more quickly to decreases in costs but respond slowly to increases in costs. Chapters 3 and 4 discuss the government’s policy served as unilateral disclosure of the leading firm’s future price information to the supply and demands ides of the retail gasoline market, respectively. Chapter 3 presents empirical analyses of price leadership and perfect price alignment to explore the effect of an increased price transparency policy on the supply side. We propose evidence that the government’s policy is the underlying cause of price leadership and price coordination. Finally, using regional household-level data across 20 Taiwanese regions, Chapter 4 semiparametrically examines the effect of the government’s policy on the demand side. We find evidence of intertemporal substitution that the government’s policy helps to plan consumers’ future purchase.
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Ding, Youhan. "Why Did China Do This? An Analysis on China's New Gasoline "Price Floor" Policy." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/912.
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Why did China choose certain policy over others that would achieve similar impact? Because China has a significant presence in the modern international community, it is difficult yet critical to understand the policy implications of the Chinese government under its unique political and socioeconomic context. This thesis shows the impact of a specific “price floor” policy China chose to employ in its oil and gasoline market, and identifies the factors concerning the Chinese regime that it took into consideration in the decision making process, through analysing data and official statements released by the government. After different parties affected by this policy are recognized, this thesis investigate how those impacts relate back to the Chinese government’s long-term agenda of energy security and environmental protection.
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Zhou, Li. "Simulating the daily gasoline price-setting behaviour of gas stations in Cincinnati by agent-based modeling." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1258662185.
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Chamayou, Etienne. "Price dispersion and consumer search : Evidence from the retail gasoline market and the supermarket industry in France." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017SACLX067/document.
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Cette thèse est un travail empirique sur la dispersion des prix, c'est-à-dire le fait qu'un bien identique puisse être vendu à des prix différents, en violation de la célèbre loi du prix unique. L'approche s'inscrit dans une littérature initiée par Stigler (1961), qui note que "la dispersion des prix est (...) la mesure de l'ignorance dans le marché". Il en découle que de simples observations de prix peuvent révéler beaucoup d'information sur le fonctionnement d'un marché.Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact de la création d'une enseigne à bas prix sur le marché français de la distribution de carburant. Cette création implique que de nombreuses stations sont confrontées à une baisse de prix importante d'un proche concurrent. La réaction agrégée mesurée au niveau national est faible, mais masque des hausses et des baisses en proportions équivalentes. L'hétérogénéité des réactions souligne l'importante segmentation du marché. Le second chapitre, utilisant le même jeu de de données, examine la pertinence de modèles qui identifient la dispersion des prix à des équilibres en stratégies mixtes. Empiriquement, on observe que l'ordre des prix des stations concurrentes tend en effet à varier dans le temps, et que sa volatilité croit lorsque la distance qui sépare les points de vente augmente. La dispersion est donc croissante d'un coût recherche supporté par les consommateurs. Par ailleurs, l'enseigne des stations détermine largement leur stratégie de prix. Les stations qui pratiquent les prix les plus bas sont relativement plus susceptibles de maintenir des prix parfaitement alignés sur ceux des proches concurrents, tandis que la dispersion mesurée entre les stations plus onéreuses est corrélée positivement avec le coût du diesel et le nombre de stations présentes sur le marché. Ainsi, les résultats renforcent la thèse de la coexistence d'un marché proche d'une concurrence à la Bertrand avec un marché moins concurrentiel, où des stations tirent parti de frictions importantes.Le dernier chapitre s'intéresse à la grande distribution, s'appuyant sur des données collectées sur un comparateur de prix en ligne. J'observe que les comparaisons réalisées entre chaînes de magasins par le site sont relativement peu informatives compte tenu de l'hétérogénéité des résultats au niveau local. L'échantillon de produits retenu peut en outre conduire à des résultats largement différents. La volatilité des comparaisons augmente avec la distance séparant les supermarchés, ce qui, comme dans le cas du carburant, dénote la présence de coûts de recherche. A l'échelle locale, le niveau des prix ne croit pas avec la concentration approximée par les parts de marché, ce qui conduit à remettre en question la pertinence de cet indicateur en matière de politique publique. La dispersion est positivement corrélée au niveau des prix, ce qui suggère que l'imperfection de l'information permet effectivement aux supermarchés de pratiquer des prix plus élevés qu'en concurrence parfaiteThis thesis is an empirical study of price dispersion, namely the fact that a homogenous good can typically be purchased at various prices, in violation of the famous law of one price. The approach belongs to a literature initiated by Stigler (1961), which notes that “price dispersion is (...) the measure of ignorance in the market”. A noteworthy consequence is that simple price observations can be very informative about competition in a market.The first chapter analyses the impact of the creation of a discount chain on the French retail gasoline market. This creation implies that many gas stations are confronted with a sharp price decrease by a competitor. The aggregate reaction, measured at the national level, is weak but it conceals increases and decreases in equivalent proportions The heterogeneity of measured reactions highlights an important market segmentation. Using the same data, the second chapter explores the relevance of models which identify price dispersion with an equilibrium in mixed strategies. Empirically, the rank of competing gas stations is indeed observed to vary over time, and its volatility is positively correlated with the distance that separates the outlets. Dispersion thus increases with a search cost incurred by customers. The chain affiliation of gas stations largely determines their pricing strategies. Retailers which have low price policies are more likely than others to keep prices aligned with nearby competitors, while dispersion measured between more expensive gas stations is positively correlated with diesel cost and the number of sellers in the market. Results thus provide further support the coexistence of a market close to Bertrand competition with a less competitive market, where gas stations take advantage of significant frictions.The last chapter focuses on grocery stores, using data collected from an online price comparison website. Aggregate national chain comparisons that are displayed on the website are found to provide information of little value to consumers given the heterogeneity observed within store level comparison results. These can furthermore vary significantly depending on the set of compared products. Volatility tends to increase with the distance that separates supermarkets, which, as in the case of gasoline, suggests that search cost influence competition. Within local markets, the measured concentration is negatively correlated with price levels, which leads to question its effective relevance in terms of public policies. Price dispersion is found to increase with market price levels, which is consistent with sellers taking advantage of consumer search costs to post higher prices
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Rey, Diana. "A Gasoline Demand Model for the United States Light Vehicle Fleet." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2009. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2351.
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The United States is the world's largest oil consumer demanding about twenty five percent of the total world oil production. Whenever there are difficulties to supply the increasing quantities of oil demanded by the market, the price of oil escalates leading to what is known as oil price spikes or oil price shocks. The last oil price shock which was the longest sustained oil price run up in history, began its course in year 2004, and ended in 2008. This last oil price shock initiated recognizable changes in transportation dynamics: transit operators realized that commuters switched to transit as a way to save gasoline costs, consumers began to search the market for more efficient vehicles leading car manufactures to close 'gas guzzlers' plants, and the government enacted a new law entitled the Energy Independence Act of 2007, which called for the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator of the light vehicle fleet up to 35 miles per gallon in year 2020. The past trend of gasoline consumption will probably change; so in the context of the problem a gasoline consumption model was developed in this thesis to ascertain how some of the changes will impact future gasoline demand. Gasoline demand was expressed in oil equivalent million barrels per day, in a two steps Ordinary Least Square (OLS) explanatory variable model. In the first step, vehicle miles traveled expressed in trillion vehicle miles was regressed on the independent variables: vehicles expressed in million vehicles, and price of oil expressed in dollars per barrel. In the second step, the fuel consumption in million barrels per day was regressed on vehicle miles traveled, and on the fuel efficiency indicator expressed in miles per gallon. The explanatory model was run in EVIEWS that allows checking for normality, heteroskedasticty, and serial correlation. Serial correlation was addressed by inclusion of autoregressive or moving average error correction terms. Multicollinearity was solved by first differencing. The 36 year sample series set (1970-2006) was divided into a 30 years sub-period for calibration and a 6 year "hold-out" sub-period for validation. The Root Mean Square Error or RMSE criterion was adopted to select the "best model" among other possible choices, although other criteria were also recorded. Three scenarios for the size of the light vehicle fleet in a forecasting period up to 2020 were created. These scenarios were equivalent to growth rates of 2.1, 1.28, and about 1 per cent per year. The last or more optimistic vehicle growth scenario, from the gasoline consumption perspective, appeared consistent with the theory of vehicle saturation. One scenario for the average miles per gallon indicator was created for each one of the size of fleet indicators by distributing the fleet every year assuming a 7 percent replacement rate. Three scenarios for the price of oil were also created: the first one used the average price of oil in the sample since 1970, the second was obtained by extending the price trend by exponential smoothing, and the third one used a longtime forecast supplied by the Energy Information Administration. The three scenarios created for the price of oil covered a range between a low of about 42 dollars per barrel to highs in the low 100's. The 1970-2006 gasoline consumption trend was extended to year 2020 by ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series analysis, leading to a gasoline consumption value of about 10 millions barrels per day in year 2020. This trend line was taken as the reference or baseline of gasoline consumption. The savings that resulted by application of the explanatory variable OLS model were measured against such a baseline of gasoline consumption. Even on the most pessimistic scenario the savings obtained by the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator seem enough to offset the increase in consumption that otherwise would have occurred by extension of the trend, leaving consumption at the 2006 levels or about 9 million barrels per day. The most optimistic scenario led to savings up to about 2 million barrels per day below the 2006 level or about 3 millions barrels per day below the baseline in 2020. The "expected" or average consumption in 2020 is about 8 million barrels per day, 2 million barrels below the baseline or 1 million below the 2006 consumption level. More savings are possible if technologies such as plug-in hybrids that have been already implemented in other countries take over soon, are efficiently promoted, or are given incentives or subsidies such as tax credits. The savings in gasoline consumption may in the future contribute to stabilize the price of oil as worldwide demand is tamed by oil saving policy changes implemented in the United States.M.S.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Engineering and Computer Science
Civil Engineering MS
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Azarafshar, Roshanak. "Three Essays on the Effects of Government Taxation and Incentive Policies on Consumers' New Vehicle Purchase Decisions." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/38478.
Full textAbstract:
Chapter 1. This chapter aims to find the effects of financial point of sales incentives on the sales of electric vehicles across the Canadian provinces from September 2012 to December 2016. The findings of my study indicate that purchase incentives cause the sales of new electric vehicles to increase by 8 percent on average due to a $1000 increase in incentives. I find that 47% of electric vehicle sales across the rebating provinces (Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia) are attributed to the purchase incentives. Results of my counter-factual simulations imply that the cost of eliminating one tonne of carbon emissions across the provinces that offer incentives over the years of my study is, on average, $216/tonne CO2.
Chapter 2. In light of the rapid increase in Canadian gasoline prices from 2000 to 2010, this chapter focuses on the relationship between gasoline price and demand for vehicle fuel efficiency across the Canadian forward sortation areas (FSA) over this period. I find that consumers respond to variations in gasoline price when deciding the fuel efficiency of their new vehicle; increases in gasoline price result in shifts in demand for more fuel-efficient vehicles and therefore improve the average fuel efficiency of the new vehicle fleet. I find that the elasticity of fuel economy with respect to gasoline price for new vehicles sold across the Canadian forward sortation areas (FSA) from 2000 to 2010 is -0.06 to -0.16. Results of further analyses imply that consumer are more responsive to rising and constant gasoline prices than falling prices and that urban residents are slightly more responsive to variations in gasoline price compared to residents of suburb regions.
Chapter 3. This chapter investigates the effect of the carbon tax policy implemented by the Canadian Province of British Columbia on households’ new vehicle purchase decisions. I dis-aggregate the effects of gasoline price into two effects: the carbon tax and carbon tax-exclusive gasoline price. These effects are both measured along the extensive margin of replacing a fuel inefficient vehicle with a fuel-efficient vehicle. The results indicate that there is a significant negative relationship between both effects and fuel efficiency substitutions. However, vehicle fuel economy is more sensitive to changes in the carbon tax than to equivalent changes in the carbon tax-exclusive gasoline price. I find that the elasticity of fleet fuel economy with respect to the carbon tax ranges from -0.22 to -0.26 whereas this elasticity changes between -0.1 and -0.15 with respect to gasoline price (net of the carbon tax). I obtain consistent results when estimating the effect of both factors on fleet fuel economy conditional on fleet composition, indicating that almost all vehicle segments respond more strongly to changes in the carbon tax component of gasoline price than other components. Results also imply that, among all segments, the fuel consumption of compact sport utility vehicles (SUVs), minivans, and luxury high-end cars respond the most to the carbon tax.
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Pieri, Lorenzo. "O Mecanismo de transmissão de preços do petróleo para a gasolina e para o diesel nos EUA nos anos 2000." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10992.
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Through an Error Correction Model this study explores possible asymmetries in the passthrough of the oil prices to gasoline and diesel prices in the US market and, mainly, analyzes if the trends reversals of those refined oil products demand at the above market affected the price transmission mechanism. Using monthly date from January 2001 to December 2012, the results for gasoline indicated that there was evidence of passthrough due to the demand shift. However, it is worth noting that this result occurred concurrently with the period of recovery in prices witnessed after the 2008 crisis. Regarding diesel, there is no evidence that there were changes in the passthrough. Finally, we found evidence of the WTI decline as an oil reference due to its devaluation from 2010.
Através de um Modelo de Correção de Erros este estudo explora possíveis assimetrias no passthrough dos preços de petróleos para os preços do diesel e da gasolina no mercado dos Estados Unidos, analisando, principalmente, se as inversões das tendências das demandas destes derivados afetaram o mecanismo de transmissão de preços. A partir de dados mensais de janeiro de 2001 a dezembro de 2012, para a gasolina foram encontrados indícios de que houve alterações do passthrough em decorrência da quebra da demanda. Porém, é válido destacar que tal resultado ocorreu concomitantemente ao período de recuperação de preços presenciada após a crise de 2008. Em relação ao diesel, não há indícios de que houve alterações no passthrough. Por fim, há evidências da redução do WTI como petróleo de referência em decorrência da sua desvalorização a partir de 2010.
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Rodrigues, Marcelo Bosi. "Os preços do álcool, do açúcar e da gasolina e suas relações: uma análise econométrica." Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-10122010-133541/.
Full textAbstract:
O objetivo principal do presente trabalho é analisar as séries de preços do álcool combustível, do açúcar e da gasolina, no intuito de investigar as relações entre eles. Neste sentido, as séries de preços individuais e os preços relativos foram analisados, utilizando-se testes econométricos para verificar a presença de raiz unitária. Apesar das séries de preços terem apresentando comportamento não estacionário, os preços relativos demonstraram estacionariedade. O valor de convergência do preço relativo do álcool e da gasolina (0,657412) se aproximou bastante da relação entre os preços estabelecida pela diferença na eficiência técnica desses dois combustíveis (0,7). Além disso, o estudo demonstrou que os preços do álcool combustível têm sua oscilação balizada pelos preços da gasolina, no varejo e do açúcar no atacado, determinando com isso uma faixa dentro da qual o preço deste produto oscila.The main goal of this work is to analyze the price series of ethanol, sugar and gas in order to investigate the relationship between them. In this sense the individual price series and the relative ones where analyzed. For that we used econometric tests to verify the unit root presence. In spite of the individual price series being not stationary, the relative prices show stationarity. Ethanol and gas relative price convergence value (0,657412) got close to the relation between the established relative price by the difference of both fuels technical efficiency (0,7). Besides that the work has demonstrated that ethanol prices have its own range based on gas retail prices and sugar wholesale prices, determining this way a level where this product price ranges.
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Silva, André Suriane da. "Transmissão assimétrica de preços: o caso do mercado de gasolina por atacado e varejo no Brasil." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, 2011. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/2091.
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CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Este estudo analisa a transmissão assimétrica de preços no mercado de gasolina brasileiro sobre uma abordagem diferente da existente na literatura nacional, qual seja: a análise desagregada em cidades; a relação dos ajustamentos de preços de gasolina no varejo (postos) em decorrência de variação de preços por atacado (distribuidor); e a relação dos ajustamentos de preços de gasolina no atacado em relação aos preços ministrados nos municípios formadores de preços. Entre as hipóteses sugeridas como principais determinantes destas assimetrias estão o custo de ajustamento e a existência de mercados não competitivos. O objetivo geral deste trabalho se configurou em analisar a dinâmica de preços da gasolina no varejo e no atacado no Brasil sob um enfoque regional, utilizando dados semanais para 134 cidades do país, referentes ao período entre maio de 2004 e fevereiro de 2011. Foram utilizando as abordagens de cointegração por correção dos erros com ajustamentos threshold (TAR) e momentum threshold e (MTAR). Para o caso do varejo, a principal conclusão, para amostra selecionada, é que, há evidência estatística de cointegração entre as séries de preços de gasolina a varejo e atacado em 103 municípios pelo modelo TAR e 96 pelo modelo MTAR. Quanto à questão da assimetria do varejo, tanto pela abordagem do Modelo de Correção de Erros Threshold (ECM TAR) quanto Modelo de Correção de Erros Momentum Threshold (ECM MTAR), concluiu-se que em 70 municípios houve ajustamentos simétricos dos preços. Em termos de distribuição espacial dos resultados do varejo, as regiões Sudeste e Sul apresentaram uma proporção maior de municípios com transmissão simétrica de preços. Este resultado é semelhante aos das regiões Centro Oeste e Norte. Entretanto, na região Nordeste houve uma inversão na proporção de cidades que apresentaram assimetria em relação às demais regiões. Em relação ao atacado, 115 cointegraram pala análise ECM TAR e MTAR com os municípios formadores de preços, os resultados sugerem um alto nível de integração entre estes mercados para os preços praticados pelo atacado da gasolina. Sobre a dinâmica de preços, os resultados mostraram que no atacado são mais fortes as evidências de assimetria com uma proporção com de 45% (52 municípios) dos municípios apresentando relação assimétrica pela abordagem ECM TAR e 27% (32 municípios) pela abordagem ECM TAR. Os resultados tanto do varejo quanto no tacado sugerem um baixo nível de eficiência no processo de transmissão de preços, mesmo os resultados da cointegração sugerindo uma relação comum de longo prazo entre os preços para os dois níveis de mercado, os resultados da assimetria mostraram que esta relação não se da de forma eficiente havendo diferenças nos ajustes de preços para diferentes choques (positivos e negativos). Assim, nem os postos de gasolina repassam de forma eficiente os preços ao consumidor de alterações sofridas no atacado, nem o atacado repassa aos postos de municípios periféricos os preços praticados em grandes mercados consumidores próximos de distribuidoras.
This study analyzes the asymmetric price transmission in Brazilian gasoline markets, discussing a different approach considering the national publications before, as the non aggregated analysis into the cities, retail gasoline price adjustments ratio in (gas stations) due to wholesale prices variation (supplier) and the wholesale gasoline price adjustments ratio comparing the municipalities given the price makers. Among the suggested hypotheses as major determinants of those asymmetries are the adjustment cost and non-competitive markets existence. This work aims to analyze retail and wholesale gas prices dynamics in Brazil under a regional approach, using weekly database for 134 municipalities, between May 2004 and February 2011 period. Cointegration approach for threshold adjustments and momentum threshold error corrections (TAR) and (MTAR) were used. The main conclusion for retail industry is cointegration statistical evidence between retail and wholesale price series in 103 municipalities and 96 by the TAR and MTAR models respectively. For retail asymmetries, TAR Error Correction Model and MTAR Error Correction Model approaches pointed to symmetrical price adjustments in 70 municipalities. In terms of spatial distribution on retail results, southeast and south had a higher proportion of municipalities with symmetrical transmission prices. This result is similar to the North and Midwest regions. However, there was a reversal aspect in northeast region. Cities presented asymmetry considering other regions. Considering wholesale market, 115 municipalities cointegrated by ECM TAR and ECM MTAR approach with the price makers municipalities. Results suggest a higher level of integration between these markets for the gasoline wholesale prices. By price dynamics analysis, asymmetry evidences are stronger with a 45% proportion (52 municipalities) introducing asymmetric relationship by ECM TAR approach and 27% (32 municipalities) by ECM TAR approach. Both retail and wholesale results suggest a low efficiency by price transmission process. Cointegration results also suggest a common long-term relationship between prices in retail or wholesale levels. This relation by asymmetry results is not settled efficiently. There are differences in price adjustments to different shocks (positive and negative). Thus, no gas stations transfers efficiently prices to consumers considering market changes and by last, nor the wholesale market transfers to peripheral municipalities gas stations those existing prices in big markets near the suppliers.
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Hu, Haixin. "Sample selection and spatial models of housing price indexes and a disequilibrium analysis of the U.S. gasoline market using panel data /." Full text available from ProQuest UM Digital Dissertations, 2008. http://0-proquest.umi.com.umiss.lib.olemiss.edu/pqdweb?index=0&did=1850404651&SrchMode=1&sid=2&Fmt=2&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1277474405&clientId=22256.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Mississippi, 2008.Typescript. Vita. "August 2008." Committee chair : Walter Mayer Includes bibliographical references (leaves 82-83). Also available online via ProQuest to authorized users.
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Hlůšek, Jakub. "Analýza závislostí stanovování cenových hladin a objemu prodaného množství benzínu u vybraného distributora v České republice a Polsku." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-199507.
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The aim of the thesis was to analyse dependency between setting of the price level and gasoline quantum sold at a chosen distributor in the Czech Republic and in Poland. In the first part of the thesis, there are characterized price theory, tax theory, theory of state interventions, supply, demand and price elasticity of demand. In the second part, first, there is analysed whole market with fuels in both countries with their comparison. These markets have had slightly different development and they do have different market structure, because of the existence of the market leader in Poland. Second, there are analysed the data of the chosen distributor and analysed dependencies between price and quantum sold. Research showed that there is an existence of dependencies of quantum sold on both change of the absolute price and change of the relative price. These dependencies and the impact of the relative price change is more significant in the Czech Republic than in Poland.
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Guimarães, Fábio Luis. "Preços de etanol no Brasil: uma análise espacial." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/8843.
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The introduction of flex-fuel technology resulted in an expressive increase of ethanol consumption in Brazil, competing directly with gasoline throughout gas stations. Nevertheless, unlike gasoline, ethanol suffers from seasonal cycles of sugarcane harvesting, proving to be insufficient to attend demand, incurring in high prices in off-season periods. Besides these factors, the growth in use of ethanol as fuel lacks clear public policies that would encourage the market, as well as structured logistics that would allow for the disposal of the product at a low cost. This study aims to demonstrate how ethanol and gasoline prices behave spatially in Brazil. It was observed that ethanol prices paid by consumers were lower the closer to production areas and higher with greater distances, until they turned disadvantageous for consumers in some states where the parity of ethanol prices against gasoline overcame the technical limit of 70%. It was also observed that the different seasonal cycles from the two production areas in the country define seasonal patterns in consumption of ethanol or gasoline, based on the 70% parity. The results indicate that stocks and product flows depend not only on logistic conditions, but also on seasonal combinations of the producing areas. Finally, this work intends to understand how and to what degree production prices in the state of São Paulo state relate to the prices that consumers pay in other regions of the country. This study demonstrates that the speed in price transmission is not related to distance, but rather, that logistic factors and the specific characteristics of each market are the major determinants of the behavior of consumer prices with relation to changes in production prices in the state of São Paulo.
A introdução da tecnologia flex-fuel resultou em um expressivo aumento do consumo de etanol no Brasil, tornando-o principal concorrente da gasolina nos postos de combustíveis. Apesar disso, diferentemente da gasolina, a oferta de etanol sofre com a sazonalidade da safra de cana de açúcar, mostrando-se insuficiente para atender a demanda, incorrendo em altos preços nos períodos de entressafra. Além destes fatores, a expansão do uso de etanol como combustível enfrenta a ausência de políticas públicas claras que incentivem o mercado, assim como uma estrutura logística que permita o escoamento do produto a baixos custos. O presente trabalho buscou demonstrar como se comportam espacialmente os preços de etanol e gasolina no Brasil. Observou-se que os preços de etanol combustível ao consumidor foram menores quanto mais próximos das regiões produtoras e maiores conforme se distanciam, até se tornarem desvantajosos para o consumidor de alguns estados na medida em que a paridade de preços frente à gasolina supera o limite técnico de 70%. Observou-se também que a sazonalidade distinta das duas regiões produtoras do país define padrões sazonais de áreas que predominantemente consomem etanol ou gasolina, conforme a paridade de 70%. Este resultado indica que a necessidade de estoques e fluxos de produtos depende não apenas das condições logísticas, mas também da combinação da sazonalidade das regiões produtoras. Por fim, intencionou-se entender como e em que proporção os preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo relacionam-se com os preços ao consumidor de outras regiões do país. Este estudo demonstrou que a velocidade de transmissão dos preços não está relacionada com a distância e que fatores logísticos e características específicas de cada mercado são os principais determinantes do comportamento dos preços ao consumidor em relação às alterações nos preços ao produtor do estado de São Paulo.
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孫世勳. "Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and the Asymmetric Response of Retail Gasoline Prices in Taiwan." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54471478009710735406.
Full text
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Wu, Yi-Chen, and 吳怡甄. "International Comparison of the determinants of petroleum Product prices and Exploration of the suitability of Gasoline Prices in Taiwan." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/80017786502122269923.
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碩士中原大學
國際貿易研究所
96
Recently, international crude oil price has made a historical new high, that is, over 100 USD per barrel, will the price still go up and the economic impact brought about by the high oil price are currently the hottest topics discussed worldwide. According to an USA’s oil price analysis result performed in 2005 by EIA, it is seen that in 2004, among factors affecting oil price, the refining cost, tax and marketing sales factors occupy a percentage of 53%, and the other 47% is affected by oil price; hence, it can be seen that a highly positive correlation exists between oil price and oil product price. As the cost of crude oil and the refining cost are basically the same across countries, the existence of differential oil product prices among countries comes mainly from their differences in taxation policy. In this study, factors affecting oil product price difference and tax value in countries around the world are investigated. Through empirical analysis, the reasons behind the price difference and tax value among countries around the world are inspected. Theoretically, many countries around the world use tax system as a policy tool to affect oil product price, however, some factors are from external cost consideration. With data from 15 countries of European Union, five Asian countries (Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan, etc.) and USA, this study uses Panel Data Models which combines time-series and cross-sectional data to analyze the significances of factors affecting oil product price. The results indicate that aside from fiscal reasons, EU countries tend to take externalities into account in formulating the level of oil product price and tax value.
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Hsing, Chun-Wei, and 邢純瑋. "An Empirical Study on the Factors That Differentiate Gasoline Prices across Selected Countries." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87653907983132852159.
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碩士中原大學
國際貿易研究所
94
The globalization of world trade has leveled motor vehicle price all over the world to such an extent that the price ratio for equivalent vehicles no longer exceeds about 1 to 2 between any two countries. However, transport gasoline price in different countries still differ on a scale of as much as 1 to 150. This paper examines a number of considerations from the theory of public finance that may explain these differences and explores empirically the factors that contribute to these differences. Theoretically, we found that differential tax policies between counties are the main reason that causes the difference in gasoline price among different countries. Empirically, by using the data set containing gasoline prices for 17 countries (15 EU, US, and Taiwan) spanning from 1999 to 2004, and by applying fixed effect model with FGLS estimation method, we found that the factors that contribute to the significant differences in gasoline price include government expenditure, government debt, income, as well as car density and road casualties. Environmental situations ( emissions) and the dependency in imported oil are also found to be significant factors that may cause the gasoline price to differ. The results from our empirical analysis suggest that raising gasoline price may improve the quality of the environment to some extent, which indicates that designing suitable policy for gasoline price should be a good way of achieving sustainability of the economy.
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Gu, Jingping. "Essays in Applied Macroeconomics: Asymmetric Price Adjustment, Exchange Rate and Treatment Effect." 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2929.
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This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible
asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error
correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of
these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for
autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of
them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying
volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we
allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response
function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in
weekly retail gasoline prices
Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate.
Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate
movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits
on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a
flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive
specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact
real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of
exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a
fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates
from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium.
Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression
model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on
recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not
only automatically smooth the irrelevant variables out of the nonparametric regression
model, but also avoid the problem of loss of efficiency related to the traditional
nonparametric frequency-based method and the problem of misspecification based on
parametric model.
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Haire, Ashley Raye. "A methodology for incorporating fuel price impacts into short-term transit ridership forecasts." 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/18402.
Full textAbstract:
Anticipating changes to public transportation ridership demand is important to planning for and meeting service goals and maintaining system viability. These changes may occur in the short- or long-term; extensive academic work has focused on bettering long-term forecasting procedures while improvements to short-term forecasting techniques have not received significant academic attention. This dissertation combines traditional forecasting approaches with multivariate regression to develop a transferable short-term public transportation ridership forecasting model that incorporates fuel price as a prediction parameter. The research herein addresses 254 US transit systems from bus, light rail, heavy rail, and commuter rail modes, and uses complementary methods to account for seasonal and non-seasonal ridership fluctuations. Models were built and calibrated using monthly data from 2002 to 2007 and validated using a six-month dataset from early 2008. Using variable transformations, classical data decomposition techniques, multivariate regression, and a variety of forecasting model validation measures, this work establishes a benchmark for future research into transferable transit ridership forecasting model improvements that may aid public transportation system planners in an era when, due to fuel price concerns, global warming and green initiatives, and other impetuses, transit use is seeing a resurgence in popularity.text
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Firgo, Matthias. "Centrality and Pricing in Spatially Differentiated Markets." Thesis, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3461/1/Dissertation_Matthias_Firgo.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
The existing theoretical and empirical literature to investigate the existence of local market power is typically based on spatial competition models in the tradition of Hotelling's (1929) linear city and Salop's (1979) circular city. In models of this kind, strong assumptions are made that lead to a spatial homogeneity (symmetry) of firms in a highly stylized one-dimensional market space. However, some of these assumptions are hardly satisfied in many (retail) markets. The present thesis builds on a recent model by Chen and Riordan (2007), in which the market is characterized by a star-shaped graph with a central intersection. In an extension of Chen and Riordan, I distinguish between firms close to the center and firms in the periphery of a spatial market. This spatial heterogeneity leads to an asymmetric competition between firms. A central firm directly competes with a larger number of firms than remote firms do.
The implications of the theoretical model are tested in two empirical applications to the retail gasoline market of Vienna and Austria. Using station level data on diesel prices, I estimate price reaction functions for gasoline stations in two different approaches. In the first approach the Austrian retail gasoline market is divided into numerous highly localized and delimited markets. The second approach analyzes the metropolitan area of Vienna and treats the whole market as one big network of gasoline stations, which are connected through the road network. In both approaches I apply econometric spatial autoregressive (SAR) models. The estimated parameters of the slopes of the reaction functions are used to evaluate the impact of individual gasoline stations on equilibrium market prices depending on their location within the market (network). All results obtained provide evidence for (more) central suppliers serving as a stronger reference in pricing than (rather) remote suppliers. Thus, the assumption of a symmetry in spatial competition which is usually implied by spatial competition models in theoretical and applied research, is rejected. (author's abstract)
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Choi, Wai Hong. "Three Papers on the Effects of Competition in Engery Markets." Thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/7766.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis comprises three papers examining the impact of competitive pricing or competition on participants in energy markets. The scope of each paper is narrow but focused, dealing with one particular aspect of competition in each market under study. It is hoped that results from these three studies could provide valuable policy lessons to public policy makers in their task to create or maintain competition in different energy markets, so as to improve efficiencies in these markets.
The first and second papers examine the load shifting behavior of industrial customers in Ontario under real time pricing (RTP). Using Hourly Ontario Energy Price (HOEP) data from 2005 to 2008 and industry-level consumption data from all industrial customers directly connected to the transmission grid, the first paper adopts a Generalized Leontief specification to obtain elasticities of substitution estimates for various industry groups, while the second paper adopts a specification derived from standard consumer theory to obtain price elasticity estimates. The findings of both papers confirm that in some industries, industrial customers who are direct participants of the wholesale market tend to shift consumption from peak to off-peak periods in order to take advantage of lower off-peak prices. Furthermore, in the first paper, a demand model is estimated and there is evidence that the marginal effect of hourly load on hourly price during peak periods is larger than the marginal effect during off-peak periods. An important policy implication from the results of these papers is that while RTP is currently limited to industrial customers, it does have positive spillover effects on all consumers.
The third paper uses a unique panel dataset of all retail gasoline stations across five Canadian cities from late-2006 to mid-2007 to examine the effect of local competition on market shares and sales of individual stations. The base empirical specification includes explanatory variables representing the number of same brand stations and the number of different brand stations within a 3km radius to identify brand affiliation effect. It is found that the number of local competitors is negatively correlated with market share and sales. More interestingly, a same brand competitor has a larger marginal impact on market share and sales than a competitor of a different brand. These findings suggest that additional local competition leads to cannibalization of market share among existing stations, rather than create new demand. Another implication is that relying only on the number of different brands operating within a geographic market could understate the competition intensity in the local market.
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Fonseca, Ricardo Jorge Medeiros. "A procura de gasolina em Portugal no período 1960-2008 : cálculo das elasticidades de curto e longo prazo." Master's thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.3/3261.
Full textAbstract:
Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais.A gasolina é um dos produtos derivados do petróleo mais importantes a nível Mundial. Tal importância deriva do peso das importações de gasolina em inúmeros países, sendo um dos determinantes do deficit da balança de pagamentos dos mesmos, deficit fiscal e crescimento económico dos mesmos. Várias abordagens foram utilizadas para estudar a procura de produtos derivados de petróleo a nível Mundial ao longo dos tempos. Propõe-se no presente trabalho estimar para o período de 1960-2008 as elasticidades procura-preço e procura-rendimento de curto e longo prazo associadas ao consumo de gasolina em Portugal de acordo com diversos modelos e técnicas de estimação econométrica como o modelo log-log, lin-log, log-lin, lin-lin e ARIMA respectivamente.
ABSTRACT: Gasoline is one of the most important derived oil products. Such importance is due to the share of gasoline imports in the balance of payments in many countries, being one of the major balance of payments deficit determinants, tax deficit and economic growth worldwide of those same countries. During times a vast range of approaches were used to study gasoline demand worldwide. The proposal of the present work is to estimate for the period of 1960-2008 the gasoline demand elasticity’s related to price and income for Portugal both in the short and in the long run applying many econometric models and techniques of estimation such as log-log, lin-log, log-lin, lin-lin and ARIMA respectively.
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Li, Ming-Hua, and 李明樺. "A Study on the Relationship between 95 Unleaded Gasoline Price, Interional Oil Price, and Exchage Rate." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/uh726g.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
國際企業系碩士在職專班
106
Fuel oil has long been an indispensable and necessary energy source In daily life. In particular, the ups and downs of gasoline and diesel,not only affect the cost of transportation for all people, but also directly affect the fluctuation of the entire price. This study intends to conduct research on the 95 unleaded gasoline with the largest amount of domestic transportation fuel. Use the time series method includes unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction model, and granger casualty test to target the domestic unlead gasoline fuel prices, the IMF crude oil index, the IMF's average oil price index, and the three major crude oil indexes (Brent, Dubai, WTI) and USD exchange rate of NTD for correlation research. The empirical results show that： 1.The international oil price, the exchange rate of the USD to the NTD, and the domestic 95 oil price are all non-steady-state data, and there is no time trend. 2.The above research data have a co-integration relationship and can achieve a long-term equilibrium relationship. 3.The domestic 95 unleaded petrol prices are affected by six factors including the IMF crude oil index, the IMF's average oil price index, the three major crude oil indexes(Brent、Dubai、WTI). 4.The USD exchange rate is directly affects by the oil price indices. 5.The impact response time between various research factors is approximately four to seven periods.
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Chiou, Jiun-Chin, and 邱俊欽. "Sustainable Urban Transportation— The Case of Gasoline Price Regulation and Mode Choice." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/42521735937587824335.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立高雄第一科技大學
運籌管理所
98
Much transport needs gasoline as energy source, the effect caused by gasoline price fluctuation on mode choice behavior cannot be ignored. Recently, related mode choice studies collect cross-sectional data by questionaire survey to observe individual preference. However, gasoline price belongs to time-series data that cannot combine with cross-sectional data, therefore this study applies aggregate panel data to estimate disaggregate model, such that with lower cost of data collection, can be updated regularly and analyzes problems that traditional mode choice behavior using cross-sectional data cannot dispute. Moreover, this study analyzes variation of consumer surplus and environmental impact based on estimated result as a fundation of sustainable urban transportation. In light of the data collected, mode choice behavior model be constructed by multinomial logit model and nested logit model. The result reveals that nested logit model comforms to utility maximization. Additionally, bus and MRT are correlated, so nested logit model is as suggested model in the study. The result also indicates that gasoline price, fare and others significantly affect market share of public transit. Direct elasticity analysis shows that major elasticity values are similar to related literature. In cross elasticity analysis, MRT fare and bus frequency are important to its competitiors. Then, to estimate gasoline price before floating price mechanism based on OPEC oil price. From the difference of estimated and real gasoline price, we discuss variation of consumer surplus and environmental impact. Policy evaluation illustrates that if gasoline price be reduces by deliberate intension, it will induce welfare loss and air pollusion. It is not beneficial for sustainable development.
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Mann, Janelle. "Threshold Cointegration with Applications to the Oil and Gasoline Industry." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/7281.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis develops a new methodological approach to test for threshold cointegration. It determines the threshold locations, the number of thresholds, and tests the null hypothesis of a unit root against the alternative of a stationary threshold process using p-values based on a residual-based block bootstrap for the nonlinear threshold autoregressive specification (TAR). Chapter 2 describes the methodological approach which combines Gonzalo and Pitarakis (2002) and Seo (2008). Chapter 3 employs Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the properties of the new approach. The results indicate that the methodology performs well and is suited for application to real world time series. Chapter 4 applies the new approach in combination with a threshold error correction model (ECM) to determine the spatial relationships among three crude oil prices: WTI, Brent, and Oman, from 2008 through 2011. The results indicate that the crude oil benchmarks are tied together by a long run relationship; however, the recent reversal in price premium between the two main crude oil benchmarks, WTI and Brent, is an anomaly that has resulted in a time period in which the series do not have a tendency to move back toward their long run relationship. Chapter 5 applies the new approach, in combination with threshold ECMs, with regime switches being triggered by the upstream markup margin to determine the vertical relationships between the crude oil, rack, and retail gasoline prices for six cities across North America. The results using both daily and weekly data between 2008 and 2011 suggest that upstream and downstream prices are cointegrated. There is evidence of band-TAR in which the crude, rack, and retail prices are free to diverge until the markup margin is squeezed or stretched beyond a lower or upper threshold. This suggests that abnormally high margins cannot be sustained indefinitely. The threshold ECMs indicate that there is no systematic relationship between the speed of adjustment and the markup margin; however, the residuals exhibit a leverage effect in which volatility and price changes are negatively correlated. Chapter 6 concludes with a summary of Chapters 2 through 5 and makes suggestions for future research.Thesis (Ph.D, Management) -- Queen's University, 2012-06-17 22:53:24.922
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Jan, Liu Hao, and 劉浩然. "An Analysis of The Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship: An Application of Asymmetric Error Correction Model." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74799213661288248417.
Full textAbstract:
碩士東海大學
國際貿易學系
96
Taiwan is highly dependent on import in amounts of energy, especially the crude oil. In recent years, the crude oil price keeps rising fiercely, causing a serious impact on domestic oil prices and economy. The Chinese Petroleum Corp.(CPC) and Formosa Petrochemical Corp.(FPCC) make up the entire gasoline market in Taiwan. In this context, whether the domestic gasoline wholesales prices and retail prices adjust in the same pace with the crude oil prices is the main subject that the research tried to identify. The research applies Asymmetric Error Correction Model to examine for the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to crude oil prices onto the wholesale and retail gasoline prices, using weekly data for period January 2001 to December 2006. The results show that there are more rises than falls in frequencies and rate in international and domestic oil market. Moreover the long-term cointegrating relation exists between crude oil price and domestic wholesale and retail prices. Additionally, we find evidence of gasoline price asymmetries if we adopt WTI as the indicator in floating oil pricing mechanism. As a result, we may overestimate the response of domestic gasoline price to the oil shock. At last, the retail gasoline price is affected by international oil price and wholesale gasoline price. In duopoly gasoline wholesale market, the pricing strategy of CPC&FPCC both firms are cooperative.
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Fernandes, Francisco Rego Morcela Caldeira. "The retail gasoline market in the Lisbon metropolitan area - a spatial competition analisys." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/111663.
Full textAbstract:
This paper analyses the determinants of the price of gasoline on the retail fuel market in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Through a Spatial Autoregressive model that solves for the best response functions of gas stations, evidence was found that location and geographic boundaries of competition have effects on gasoline prices. Moreover, results also indicate that the characteristics of a gas station, that include its Brand and service offer, are more relevant indicators of price alterations than socioeconomic characteristics of the market.