Academic literature on the topic 'General surveys by foreign authors'

Does “soft power” matter in international relations? Specifically, when the United States seeks cooperation from countries around the world, do the views of their publics about US foreign policy affect the actual foreign policy behavior of these countries? The authors examine this question using multinational surveys covering fifty-eight countries, combined with information about their foreign policy decisions in 2003, a critical year for the US. They draw their basic conceptual framework from Joseph Nye, who uses various indicators of opinion about the US to assess US soft power. But the authors argue that his theory lacks the specificity needed for falsifiable testing. They refine it by focusing on foreign public opinion about US foreign policy, an underemphasized element of Nye's approach. Their regression analysis shows that foreign public opinion has a significant and large effect on troop commitments to the war in Iraq, even after controlling for various hard power factors. It also has significant, albeit small, effects on policies toward the International Criminal Court and on voting decisions in the UN General Assembly. These results support the authors' refined theoretical argument about soft power: public opinion about US foreign policy in foreign countries does affect their policies toward the US, but this effect is conditional on the salience of an issue for mass publics.

The article is devoted to the issues and problems connected with e-teaching of foreign languages for students in higher school. The results of pre- and post-pandemic surveys after two lockdowns which universities of the Russian Federation suffered from during 2019/2020 and 2020/2021academic years have been compared. The comparative analysis of pre- and post-pandemic students’ attitude to e-learning at the university on the whole and to foreign languages e-learning in particular has been weighed. The authors assessed students’ reaction to possible transition to e-learning, following gradual adaptation to new conditions during lockdown and the role of information technologies in e-learning. Aiming at fundamental analysis of distant learning the authors conducted students’ opinion surveys of the State University of Management on the issues of risks, disadvantages, convenience and advantages of the electronic and blended learning generally and on the issues of foreign language acquisition particularly. Besides, the attainments and skills that the students acquired during the periods of e-learning and which are, in students’ opinion, an essential part of their professional acquirements, have been studied.The article presents the results of postpandemic opinion survey, shows the main problems and advantages of electronic learning, reveals the types of foreign language activities, most recommendable for e-learning, makes conclusions about the advantages of the electronic and blended learning for foreign language acquisition in modern conditions. The conclusions about the necessity of the individual approach to each student even during e-learning have been made.

In this article we present the empirical base of the study, which consists of data obtained from social surveys of students of the branch of the Ufa State Oil Technical University in Oktyabrsky. The nationality of the respondents was stated according to self-identification of representatives of different nationalities living in the territory of different countries of the near and far abroad. The study involved 114 respondents aged from 17 to 21. The study applied a wide range of methods for collecting and processing empirical information. The authors applied some diagnostic techniques and methods of information collection used in the works of Russian researchers. The questionnaire (social survey) was used to study general demographic information, as well as to study the affective component of the national consciousness of foreign students – a sense of national identity and related emotional experiences.

The authors of the article present and analyze surveys of first, second and third year students of the State University of Management in Moscow on issues and problems related to project activities in a foreign language within the framework of curricula in the disciplines “Foreign Language” and “Foreign language of professional business communication”. As a result of the study, the authors conclude that students mostly come to the university with project work skills and improve them over several semesters at the university. The study revealed the most popular programs and platforms that students use to complete project tasks, and also the examples of managerial capacity and volitional powers that, in the opinion of students, a student should acquire in the process of project implementation. The article describes the main factors that can encourage them to do project work, and some problems associated with the implementation of project activities at the State University of Management. The results obtained reflect the university realities of students’ project work in a foreign language and can be useful to methodologists and developers of university curricula.

The size of the enterprise is one of the most important determinants of the profitability of the enterprise. Some domestic and numerous foreign authors have tried to point out the impact that the size of the enterprise has on profitability. The results of these surveys have been contradictory, namely, some surveys have shown that larger enterprises are more profitable, some that smaller enterprises are more profitable, and some studies have indicated that the size of the enterprise has no impact on profitability. These contradictory conclusions led the authors of this paper to investigate the impact of enterprise size on profitability. This survey used data from regular financial statements for 121 agricultural enterprises for the period from 2014 to 2017. The rate of return on assets (ROA) was used as a measure of the profitability of agricultural enterprises, while the size of each enterprise was taken from the official statements of these enterprises according to the Company Classification Act. The results of the research have shown that larger enterprises were more profitable compared to small and medium-sized enterprises, but that this difference in performance was not statistically significant. It is a general conclusion that the size of the enterprise does not have a statistically significant impact on the profitability of the sampled agricultural enterprises.

This article gives an overview of the current status of the problem of plastic brain changes in connection with the study of a foreign language. It links learning of languages with bilingualism, which is a widespread phenomenon in contemporary world. Recent surveys indicate that learning and using additional languages has a direct impact on the overall human cognitive functions whose mechanisms are relatively unknown. In this regard, the most important challenge facing the world today is neuro-biological mechanisms of interaction of languages in the brain of a bilingual and their impact on verbal and nonverbal brain function. Despite the large amount of experimental material on this issue, the data remains controversial, and many authors put under question the existence of such benefits. Possible reason for the discrepancy is a great heterogeneity among bilinguals. In conclusion the article stresses the importance of research of cognitive control in bilinguals in different groups of bi-and multilingual subjects.

The research study was conducted in two stages, in 2015 and 2016 from March 15 to April 15 utilizing the method of formalized interview. Each phase of the survey involved 560 Yerevan residents. As the results of the research come to prove, the mosaic of the public perception and the psychological reflection of the phenomenon of the Armenian Genocide is very sophisticated. The moods of regret, pain, depression, declining moods, complaint, wrath, revenge, hope and optimistic views for future are intertwined and bound together. These moods and feelings appear next to each other and quickly alternating. As a result of sociological surveys, a number of trends and transformations in public opinion and perception were revealed. The authors explain these changes by three groups of domestic political and foreign policy factors.

Nowadays, when services of municipalities are available only remote, need for reliable information is constantly increasing- starting with administration office contacts and ending with current COVID-19 restrictions. This flow of information in Latvia is provided by websites and social media accounts of local municipalities. The author's work has explored statistics and user behaviour data of foreign municipalities websites during COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore an survey for Latvia’s municipalities was conducted to find out how COVID-19 pandemic has changed user behaviour and website statistics. As a result, author of the work compared data obtained from surveys and examinated available data from foreign municipalities, which could be used facing further crisis situations.

The increasing role of migration in the world makes the integration of migrants into host societies a crucial social process. In the long run, integration is closely related to the topic of the second generation of migrants and their relative well-being in society. In Russia, which attracts a large number of migrants, the integration of the second generation is also very important but the understanding of it is fragmented due to the small number of relevant studies. The task of obtaining relevant data on migrants' descendants and their participation in social and economic life requires taking into account the wealth of foreign experience in studying this topic.This paper provides an overview of approaches to the study of the second generation of migrants in the United States, Canada and Western European countries. The review is based on analytical and methodological publications of national statistical agencies and international organizations (UN, OECD, Eurostat), metadata from special sample surveys and a number of academic articles. The authors discusses the main data sources used to estimate the number of second-generation migrants and to provide information on their socio-economic characteristics, such as censuses and microcensuses, regular labour force surveys and ad hoc sample surveys. The article describes nuances in the definition and evolution of the concept of «second generation» in the national statistical systems. The results of studies on the social mobility of descendants of immigrants are summarised.In conclusion, we offer practical recommendations for modernizing the system of statistical recording of migration in Russia based on the long-term foreign experience of studying the second generation of migrants.

The article is devoted to the problem of attracting foreign students to the Russian universities. Particular attention is paid to the ways of forming a positive image and factors of attractiveness of educational organizations of higher education in the Far East for potential students. The article considers several areas of development of the indicated problem. First of all, internationalization of education and increase in the number of foreign students is the effective fulfillment of modern request for socio-economic development for the highly professional personnel. Currently, the most urgent tasks are to create necessary conditions to prevent the outflow of foreign students from Russia, thereby preserving their contingent by maintaining the high quality of education with the development and widespread introduction of new learning formats into the educational process: online technologies, hybrid forms of education. The article notes that for Russia, which has a powerful export potential of education system, finding the ways to increase the competitiveness of Russian universities in the world educational space is a current priority. The article pays special attention to the issue of attracting foreign students to the universities in the Far East, especially from the PRC. Close proximity of the Far-Eastern region to China and the need to identify resources that ensure competitive positions for the regional universities in attracting Chinese students justify the prospects for sociological developments in this area. Based on the surveys of foreign students, graduates and potential applicants, the authors of this article identified priority areas in the development of educational potential of the Far-Eastern universities and increasing their attractiveness for the foreign students, refuted stereotypical ideas that foreign students from the low-income families and having a low level of education enter the Russian Far-Eastern universities. The conclusions to which the authors come are addressed to the university leaders, teachers, as well as officials of the government and business bodies interested in the development of the Far-Eastern territories.

Introduction Internet has become an essential part of our everyday life and several goals can be achieved through it. While part of the literature on the topic found a positive correlation between loneliness and the use of the internet, other authors found a negative relationship between loneliness and internet use. Objective The aim of our analysis is to investigate the difference in the use of the Internet between immigrants of first- and second-generation in Italy. Data & Methods Using the Survey on Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens conducted by Istat in 2011-2012, we want to estimate, through a Probit estimation model, the impact of socio-economic characteristics on the regularity of using the Internet. The dependent variable is “Internauta” (Dummy: 1 if subject use internet every day; 0 otherwise). Among the explanatory variables, we included the perception of the subjects about their integration in the social framework and their feeling, such as loneliness, or the perception of unacceptance. Results Our results show that the probability of being an “Internauta” increases being male and living in the North or Centre of Italy. Moreover, both of the feelings (feels alone and not accepted) are negatively correlated to the probability of being an Internet user both for First- and Second-Generation immigrants. Second-generation immigrants are more likely to use the internet everyday than the First-generation ones (the difference in predicted probability is equal to 11%). This probability decreases to 0.59, if the second-generation immigrant feels unaccepted in the city where he/she lives, and to 0.71 if he/she fells alone. Conclusion We can conclude that new possibilities offered by “web sociability” or, in general, by the use of the Internet, is negatively correlated to the immigrants’ dissatisfaction that we identify with the perception of integration and sociability in the offline life (Loneliness and Unacceptance).

AbstractThis chapter looks at the effect of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) at the world and regional levels, with a focus on East, South and Southeast Asia. The academic literature is inconclusive because the nature of corruption can be different from one country to another and because various other factors can decide whether a foreign company will invest in a country or region despite a relatively high level of corruption. To shed light on the effect of corruption, the authors proceed to a paneleconometrics investigation that assesses the relationship between the stock of FDI and the‘control of corruption’, published by the World Bank, for a sample of 180 countries over the period 2002–2019. The‘control of corruption’ index combines 23 different assessments and surveys capturing perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gains. A low score means that the authorities do not fight corruption or are not effective in fighting it, and therefore corruption is high; and vice versa. The authors include two control variables (real GDP and secondary school enrolment) to better estimate the specific role of corruption. Their results show that at the world level, thecontrol of corruption is low and has a positive effect on FDI, which means that corruption is a stimulus to FDI, in line with Egger and Winner's findings. However, in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australiaand New Zealand, corruption has a ‘grabbing hand’ effect. In theEuropean Union, corruption is a helping hand. The authors’ results confirm the importance of a regional approach to the analysis of the effect of corruption on FDI.

AbstractIn this chapter, the authors present and discuss the survey data on trade and women’s economic empowerment that was collected for this project in 2021–2022 from 610 SMEs across the six developing countries selected for the study, namely Cambodia, Ghana, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Vietnam. The chapter includes basic contextual country-level information about trade, development and gender equality in the selected countries. The discussion of the survey results includes a comparison with secondary data from World Bank Enterprise Surveys. The authors find that SMEs face various challenges that are often context-specific and recommend that policy options be tailored to address these differences. Women-owned SMEs across the six country cases face varying levels of both gender-related and more general constraints. Among the recommendations in this chapter is the need for more gender-disaggregated data to understand the difference between women-owned exporting and non-exporting SMEs.

This study examines the current reception of second part of the 19th century Italian literature in France. The data come from 4 sources of information: the general book market on foreign literature, the scholarly book market on Italian literature, the programs of Literature in Bachelor and Master curricula of Italian Studies, and the yearly programs of the competitive exam for teachers in Italian (Agrégation). As a result, the champion of second 19th century Italian literature’s reception in French culture is Giovanni Verga, the traditional canon is mostly undiscussed but lately, both large audience publishing and academic studies show interest for relatively forgotten authors such as Grazia Deledda and movements such as Scapigliatura.

Abstract. The scientific study is dedicated to the study of the pecu­ liarities of establishing legal facts in the conditions of the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine (since 2014), as well as the limits of the court’s discretionary powers in this area. The authors, within the framework of this theoretical and applied work, while delineating the limits of the court’s discretionary powers, singled out the general conditions for establishing a legal fact in the order of civil jurisdiction, classified legal facts related to military aggression in Ukraine according to the order of establishment, and also carried out a detailed comparative analysis of the revisions of Article 317 of the Civil Code of Ukraine, which underwent significant changes in connection with the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on July 1, 2022 of Law of Ukraine № 2345-IX «On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine Regarding the Peculiarities of Proceedings in Cases Establishing the Fact of Birth or Death of a Person in conditions of war or state of emergency and in temporarily occupied territories». A legal evaluation of these changes was given and their effectiveness was analyzed taking into account the already formed judicial practice. Peculiarities of the Georgian and Moldovan models of establishing the facts of the death/birth of a person in the temporarily occupied territory are singled out, since in the past Georgia and Moldova, like Ukraine, were «lucky» to experience the «care of a brotherly neighbor». Taking into account the military realities in Ukraine and the prevailing circumstances, an opinion is expressed as to whether it is possible to introduce features of the Moldovan and/or Georgian models in Ukraine.
 The purpose of the study is to outline the limits of the court’s discretionary powers regarding the establishment of legal facts in the conditions of the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine (since 2014). Isolation of the general conditions for the establishment of a legal fact in the procedure of civil jurisdiction. Taking into account the specific conditions and on the basis of the study of the judicial practice of the Unified State Register of Court Decisions, the classification of legal facts related to military aggression in Ukraine, according to the order of establishment. Analysis of key legislative changes made to the provisions of the Civil Procedure Code in terms of simplifying the procedure for establishing the fact of birth and death of a person in the temporarily occupied territory, under conditions of war and state of emergency. As well as a comparison of the relevant versions of Article 317 of the Civil Code of Ukraine to provide a legal assessment of the effectiveness of the changes made. Highlighting the key features of the Georgian and Moldovan models of establishing the fact of birth and death of a person in the temporarily occupied territory with the possibility of further borrowing and adoption of experience, as well as the implementation of such in Ukraine.
 Research methodology. The method of system analysis and compa­ rison was used during the research.
 Analysis of recent research and publications. A qualitative description of separate proceedings as an institution of civil procedural law is given in the works of M. M. Yasynok, O. O. Markova, V. Yu. Mamnytskyi, T. M. Balyuk, Y. M. Sadikova, Yu. V. Bilousov. The scientific works of A. V. Kostruba, K. I. Hychka, G. V. Kykot, V. V. Masyuk, and V. V. Komarov are devoted to the issue of establishing facts that have legal significance in separate proceedings under the Code of Civil Procedure of Ukraine. In addition, the study of the relevance of the indicated issues proves that the problems of legal regulation of the procedure for establishing the fact of birth and death of a person in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine are not fully studied. Although it is worth noting the significant contribution to research in this area by K. V. Husarova, I. M. Volkova, T. A. Stoyanova, M. H. Sviderska, O. I. Ugrynovska. and Pinyashka M., as well as other specialists in the science of civil procedural law. The empirical basis of primary source research is the modern legislation of Ukraine, as well as the legislation of Georgia and Moldova.In addition, it should be noted that M. Basilashvili covered the issue of comparative legal analysis of registration of civil status acts in Ukraine and Georgia in her research.
 Conclusions. It is obvious that cases on the establishment of facts of legal significance occupy an important place in judicial practice. The dynamism of social relations, and therefore the constant change of legislation in the conditions of war (since 2014), made it necessary to establish a new type of legal facts – a legal fact related to military aggression in Ukraine. The study of judicial practice on this issue gives reason to assert that the judicial body’s approach to the consideration of the specified category is becoming more and more qualitative. Aspecial role in the formation of the unity of judicial practice in solving the issue of establishing legal facts related to military aggression in Ukraine is played by the Supreme Court, which always stands guard to protect the violated rights of individuals. The legislative changes analyzed in this scientific study in terms of simplifying proceedings in cases of establishing the fact of birth or death of a person in the territory where a state of war or emergency has been imposed, or in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine, can rightly be called progressive, appropriate and necessary, since such are dictated by the realities of wartime in our country. Moreover, they will contribute to the unification of judicial practice in the matter of establishing the fact of birth and death of a person in the territory where a state of war or emergency has been imposed, or in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine. But the legislator still has a lot to work on in this matter. The regulation of the institution of establishing the fact of birth and death of a person in the temporarily occupied territory in Georgia and Moldova has many features, original legal norms that give grounds to conclude about the possibility of implementing specific positive points of foreign models of establishing the specified types of legal facts in Ukraine by improving Ukrainian legislation and applying in the Ukrainian legal space.

The conclusion of contracts was known in ancient times and is still relevant today. Shares that are not distributed in kind can cause certain difficulties that force the interested parties to decide on distribution.Joint ownership of inherited property received from a family member necessitates joint decision-making on its maintenance, ownership, use, and disposal, and it is difficult to achieve such a consensus on all issues. Therefore, quite often a certain period may pass from the acquisition of the right to a share in the joint property to its distribution, but due to conflicts regarding the use of the property or in the case of the need to receive funds or for other reasons, the joint property is divided by the co-owners. That is, the reasons may even be questions of how to use agricultural land, for example, to rent it out, sow it yourself, plant a garden, etc. However, the complexity of the division of land plots is because it is difficult to «divide» agricultural lands at least. After all, their intended use depends on the size, etc. Quite often, disputes also arise regarding the use of residential buildings, since the size and location of the rooms make their use impossible or difficult, as well as the distribution in kind according to the inherited shares. In other words, there is a certain «trading» of assets. If the situation is related to the distribution of a small plot of land where the house is located, then questions also arise regarding the establishment of an easement, as well as mutual concessions for the compensation of a part of the house in exchange for most of the land. In general, there are protracted negotiations, from the point of view of which these parties, who are still in a family relationship, agree on the division of property.Factors that can affect the outcome of property division include unique family circumstances, the specific nature of assets, and traditional legal practices. The parties will use different mechanisms for the division of joint assets: sale, donation, or exchange, under the terms of which they «trade» with the consent of others their rights as co-owners of jointly owned objects. The various evolutionary stages of the agreement on the division of property by the testator’s family culminate in the final stage of agreeing. The agreement on the division of inheritance is a complex legal process. Potentially, in a single transaction, the beneficiaries can choose and implement the division by sale, exchange, or donation. These different legal constructions reflect the uniqueness of the decisions in each agreement and to some extent demonstrate the specific legal practice of the individual Old Babylonian city-state and the particular circumstances of each family.However, in addition to the division of property, there are other agreements regarding the division of inheritance. For example, an agreement on quasi-partition upon adoption (quasi-adoption), an agreement on the division of residential property by the owner between its future beneficiaries.The need to conclude such agreements arises when an agreement on the division of property is required, which differs from such concepts as sale, donation, exchange, etc.Domestic scientists consider the agreement on the distribution of joint property very broadly and include other types of agreements in the list of such agreements, establishing that the agreement on changing the succession of the right to inheritance by law is atypical. It was determined that the contract under investigation belongs to contracts on the distribution of inheritance. Agreements on the distribution of inheritance are concluded in the field of inheritance, which indicates that they belong to inheritance agreements. It is proposed to supplement the existing classifications of civil law contracts by distinguishing a new type of civil law contracts – contracts in the law of inheritance on the level with the selection of a new type of inheritance contracts – contracts on the distribution of inheritance.» This is a bold hypothesis, but it is difficult to agree with it for various reasons, not least because the distribution of inheritance has been known since ancient times.The factor that the term «distribution» of inheritance and giving it a broad legal meaning is analyzed is an interesting author’s hypothesis. At the same time, according to our position, the term «distribution of inheritance» is more balanced, since in Art. 1278 of the Civil Code does not quite successfully use the term «division», when in the content of this norm it is about the equality of shares in the inheritance and the allocation of a share in kind, and not about division. However, in Part 1 of Art. 1280 of the Civil Code, the term «distribution» is used with a direct meaning and «redistribution» as an opportunity to review the results of the distribution under new circumstances – in the case of acceptance of the inheritance by other heirs. In essence, the obvious meaning of the term «distribution» follows from this norm as the initial determination of the ownership of the share of each of the heirs. In this sense, the redistribution of the inheritance should be connected with the possible introduction of changes to the previously made distribution, that is, in this case, we do not limit the number of subsequent redistributions of the inheritance. This hypothesis is related to the fact that the number of heirs who missed the deadline for valid reasons is not limited by legislation and cannot be limited, but is determined by various legal circumstances.Therefore, it is hardly expedient and possible, to apply in Art. 1280 of the Civil Code, the concept of «distribution» should be given a wider meaning than it has in the Civil Code, as this would lead to its ambiguous perception and application both in theory and in legislation and practice. Usually, theoretical terms should be distinguished by being original and should accurately reflect the legal meaning of actions, events, or conditions.But an important element of the procedure for the distribution of common inheritance property or its redistribution are the subjects who must fix the relevant agreement or carry out such distribution according to their conviction.It is indicated that the practice of concluding contracts by the living owner with his future heirs is widespread in foreign countries. At the same time, German experts equate inheritance with what they consider to be contractual inheritance.It should be noted that the practice of concluding contracts on the distribution of inheritance in the practice of the Ukrainian notary is relatively new and does not have clear boundaries in regulation, which complicates the activity of notaries in certifying such contracts. There are several difficulties in the application of relevant legal norms in practice, as there is a lack of understanding of the legal nature and essence of the conclusion of contracts, the term of conclusion, and the procedure for notarization.The opinions of individual authors are studied, about legal relations regarding the division of inheritance characterized by a weak state policy, this obliges the participants of such relations to draw up the content of agreements on the division of inheritance independently. For agreements between heirs on the distribution of inheritance to be valid regulators of the relations of its participants (heirs), conditions (clauses) must be clarified and formulated, which will be disclosed with sufficient completeness and consistency of the content of the relevant agreement and the purpose of its conclusion.We do not agree with this point of view of the scientist regarding «weak state policy», since the Central Committee of Ukraine was not created by politicians or the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine, but by leading scientists of Ukraine. It is also difficult to agree with the statement that the lack of clear regulation of the terms of inheritance contracts «obliges the participants of such relationships to independently draw up the content of inheritance distribution contracts.» In Ukraine, some good notaries and lawyers can draw up high-quality contracts for the distribution of inheritance. Moreover, according to Art. 4 of the Law of Ukraine «On Notaries», notaries have the right to draw up relevant draft contracts. In our opinion, it is worth emphasizing here that this is a right, not a duty of a notary public. That is, the notary may not undertake the drafting of the relevant project, but this provision is positive for interested parties since the lack of experience in drafting original contracts will most likely lead to the drafting of a low-quality draft contract. Indeed, in this case, it is worth looking for an experienced notary who will be able to draw up a draft contract, but this will make it possible to prevent errors in its drafting with a high probability.Thus, the agreement on the distribution of inheritance enters into force if the parties reach an agreement in the proper form on all the essential terms of the agreement. The main essential condition for agreeing on the division of inheritance is the subject of the agreement. However, either party may consider this condition insufficient and propose to include additional conditions in the contract. In this case, these conditions become essential. In connection with the instability of the regulation of the content of contracts between heirs on the distribution of inheritance, it can be concluded that the inclusion of normal conditions in the contract is currently impossible. We believe that such a general scheme of perception of contract terms is not entirely rational, since how to perceive ordinary terms or essential terms of a contract quite often in practice depends on the judgments of the parties to the contract unless otherwise regulated by legislation. This issue can be approached more precisely if we take into account the possibility of interpreting transactions and contracts (Article 213 of the Civil Code).So, based on the essence of the process of concluding contracts, it should be taken into account that the notary who drafts the contract can edit it, therefore it is worth recognizing the right of the notary to interpret it, since according to Art. 5 of the Law of Ukraine «On Notaries», he is obliged to clarify the legal consequences that will arise for persons after his certification. It follows from this that the notary must be given the official right to interpret the contract upon its certification, then it will be clear that after its certification, the court can interpret the content of the contract. In this regard, Art. 213 of the Civil Code is proposed to be supplemented with a corresponding provision regarding the powers of the notary, namely: his duty to interpret the content of the deed or contract before and during its certification.The Inheritance Regulation, which envisages wide acceptance of the inheritance contract, is considered. It is noted that it is worth revising Ukrainian inheritance law in advance for compliance with European standards since after Ukraine accedes to the EU it will be necessary to inform all EU countries about what types of contracts in Ukraine will be related to the issuance of the European Certificate of Succession.This is also important for inheritance by law, because, in case of non-fulfillment of the terms of the lifetime maintenance (care) agreement and the inheritance agreement, they will have to be terminated or recognized as invalid or unfulfilled by the acquirer, so the property that was the subject of this agreement will be inherited by law. At the same time, if the terms of these agreements are fulfilled, the part of the property that belonged to the testator will not be inherited but will become the property of the acquirers.The process of accepting the inheritance is quite long, and the inheritance law allows for several agreements between the heirs, which can significantly affect the size of the inheritance shares and the real things in each share in the inheritance. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the possibility of agreements between the heirs at different stages of accepting or not accepting the inheritance. From communication with one of the clients, the author learned that the notary unofficially advised the heirs to agree on the distribution of the inheritance, as well as for certain heirs to waive the right to inheritance, but to receive a proper share of the inheritance in household items. When the author was informed of all the circumstances of the inheritance case, it became clear that the notary could not solve the complex inheritance problem, since the inheritance took place based on a will and some heirs had the right to a mandatory share, as well as part of the property remained. So, in such a situation, it was necessary to solve an arithmetical and at the same time legal problem, the complexity of which was determined by the complex subject composition of numerous heirs. Therefore, the notary tried to simplify its solution by artificially «transforming» the heirs who have the right to a mandatory share into ordinary heirs who claim property that is not subject to recording in the certificate of the right to inheritance.A natural will was considered, when the testator bequeathed the specific property to each of the heirs, namely: a house to a daughter, a factory to one son, and a yacht to another let’s say. In such a case, the will of the testator is formulated in the Shodo of the objects of inheritance, so it is difficult to perceive the consequences of the refusal of one of the heirs to inherit, when the yacht will be divided into equal shares between the son and the daughter, because: firstly, the value of the factory and the house will be different, so someone from the testator gave the children a larger inheritance than the other. Secondly, in the case of the existence of a part of the inheritance not covered by the will, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the will of the testator was formulated about a certain property and nothing more. Therefore, in case of refusal of one of the heirs to inherit under the will, the property bequeathed to him should be considered as not covered by the will and should be inherited according to the law. That is, if the will of the testator regarding the entire property is revealed, it can be assumed that he thus intended to deprive one of the heirs of the right to inheritance.At the same time, the will must be interpreted not only by the heirs under the will but also by the heirs under the law, when its content concerns the right to a mandatory share in the inheritance, which belongs to the heirs under the law of the first rank, who due to incapacity have the right to claim it, as well as the recipients of the response. With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that the inheritance, which consists of household items, will be divided even without a written agreement. However, the interpretation of a will, which concerns a substantial inheritance between a significant number of heirs, requires not only a written form of recording of agreements – a contract, but also, in our opinion, a notarial form that will allow recording the agreement more reliably, to explain to the parties to the contract the consequences of its conclusion. If all interested parties sign the agreement, and the notary recognizes it as legal, then it will be difficult to recognize it as illegal or invalid in the next one. Therefore, the agreement on the interpretation of the will, which will establish the specific rights of the heirs and their obligations regarding the coverage of the testator’s debts, is a rational form of specification of the terms of the inheritance, which will allow establishing the executor of the will, if he was not determined by the testator.We can assume with a high degree of probability that similar «simplified calculations» are made by other notaries, as well as directly by the heirs, and certain agreements are not necessary here.

In this chapter, the authors explore possibilities to use novel face and gaze tracking technology in educational applications, especially in interactive teaching agents for second language learning. They focus on non-verbal feedback that provides information about how well the speaker has understood the presented information, and how well the interaction is progressing. Such feedback is important in interactive applications in general, and in educational systems, it is effectively used to construct a shared context in which learning can take place: the teacher can use feedback signals to tailor the presentation appropriate for the student. This chapter surveys previous work, relevant technology, and future prospects for such multimodal interactive systems. It also sketches future educational systems which encourage the students to learn foreign languages in a natural and inclusive manner, via participating in interaction using natural communication strategies.

On September 3, 2013, after Armenia completed nearly three years of negotiations with the European Union on the Association Agreement which included years of European-funded legislative reforms, President Serzh Sargsyan declared in Moscow that Yerevan wants to join the pre-formed Eurasian Customs Union (later it became Eurasian Economic Union). The President’s announcement a few hours later caught many by surprise - even those in his inner circle. Brussels had made it clear that it was the Association Agreement, and specifically its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) component which was incompatible with membership in the Customs Union. The author, with his team, conducted qualitative surveys to represent the public opinion on foreign policy orientation. At least 40 in-depth interviews have been conducted and all 40 transcripts are complete. Each group of respondents (decision making centers, political party leadership, experts, and NGO sector representatives) answered both general and specific questions. In case of policy experts and party leaders questions were divided into several groups. The questionnaire consisted of six main parts regarding national security issues, national identity impact on foreign policy, the bi-lateral and international relations building process of post-Soviet (independent) Armenia with neighbors, regional and global powers, the influence of Armenian Genocide on Armenian state policy and political decisions of the leadership, etc. As concerns the essence of security from the standpoints of the elites, political party leadership and the public, answers are quite different.

Abstract This chapter combines a general introduction to psychological approaches to international relations, with a particular focus on models of judgment and decision-making in foreign policy. It surveys the leading concepts, theories, findings, and methodologies associated with the major psychological approaches to foreign policy, and identifies questions that require further exploration. After an examination of the growing influence of political psychology in the IR field, the chapter turns to the beliefs and images of political leaders and the traits and prior experiences that shape them. It explores theories of information processing and belief change, including cognitive biases, motivated reasoning, and other impediments to rational Bayesian updating. The chapter then surveys a number of alternative models of decision-making. These include prospect theory – with its key concepts of reference dependence, loss aversion, and variable risk orientation – and models of intertemporal choice, temporal construal, groupthink, and crisis decision-making.

Taking into consideration the IRSs, older surveys, and authors' surveys results discussed in previous chapters, this chapter presents a fair internet regulation system (FIRS) designed by the authors. Their aim is to be highly adaptable to each country's special political needs in order to be accepted by the general public. In that context, they propose that a blueprint should be used in the development of an effective, fast, and low cost system that will encourage internet users to participate in the whole procedure, giving them the opportunity to enrich and correct its “behaviour.” At the same time, the proposed FIRS has to be able to handle specific kinds of online illegal content with “discretion.”

"In the article, the authors made an attempt, on the basis of the results of sociological research among students, to identify trends in the transformation of their value orientations in relation to foreign migrant workers and ethnic groups that make up the population permanently residing in Russia. Research Methods. Questionnaire survey of target groups using a specially designed questionnaire made it possible to obtain primary empirical data on the distribution of the main characteristics of the value attitudes of young people concerning foreign migrant workers and representatives of nationalities permanently residing in the territory of the Nizhny Novgorod region of the Russian Federation. At the time of this writing, within the framework of the project ""Dynamics of value orientations of youth"", six stages of research on the value orientations of students aged 16 to 24 were carried out. So, in 2006, on the territory of the Nizhny Novgorod region, 1915 students of secondary general education schools and secondary vocational educational institutions, as well as students of higher educational institutions, were interviewed, in 2011 - 3,000 people; in 2014 - 2,500 people; 2015 - 2750 people; 2016 - 2750 people, 2019 - 2750 people. The number of interviewed respondents testifies to the high representativeness of the research results obtained. When processing the primary database obtained during the field part of the study, special statistical methods of analysis were used: a) one-dimensional and two-dimensional percentage distributions, which made it possible to identify the prevalence of individual characteristics of value orientations, both in general, among young people, and in its individual groups, distributed by socio-demographic and ideological groups. b) factor analysis made it possible to identify the main set of factors and the level of significance of each of them, in the formation of a certain set of value attitudes of young people.c) cluster analysis made it possible to record the level of heterogeneity of the youth environment, the distribution of young people in individual groups, depending on the value system characteristic of each of these groups"

In the last few years, traditional teaching and learning experiences have been fundamentally transformed by cutting-edge technology such as Artificial Intelligence (AI). While there has been a lot of discussion in the scientific literature regarding the adoption and use of AI tools in general foreign language learning contexts, there is a gap in research regarding these models’ implementation in engineering education, particularly in English for Specific Purposes (ESP). The main aim of this article is to examine engineering students’ opinions about using AI technology in the ESP course at the university and investigate whether it can enhance foreign language learning outcomes. To achieve the aim of the study, a survey was conducted at the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies involving 137 engineering students representing different programs and various academic levels: undergraduate, postgraduate, and PhD. Having analysed the collected data, the authors of the present research found out that most engineering students actively use a wide range of AI tools in ESP and find them useful for various aspects of the foreign language learning process. The students also believe that AI tool incorporation enhances their learning outcomes and stress the importance of developing digital skills as the use of AI in education will inevitably grow in the future. Moreover, the students highlight the significance of using a critical approach to AI tool application in ESP and report that AI technology should be used responsibly to avoid issues like plagiarism and cheating, overreliance and laziness, lack of authenticity, originality, transparency, decreased quality of learning, negative impact on communication and interpersonal skills.

The article examines the basic approaches to children's giftedness, common in Russian and foreign psychology. The authors consider it necessary to combine the best achievements of Russian and foreign concepts of giftedness in order to create a unified theory of giftedness.

The work was carried out within the framework of the initial stage of the master's research related to the application of mathematical modeling and information technologies to the study of environmental problems of water bodies. The work presents the results of statistical modeling associated with the processing of data from two surveys: residents of the Rostov region and foreign residents. Based on the results of surveys carried out using Internet technologies, the authors make some conclusions about the attitude of residents to the problems under consideration. The proposed results are accompanied by graphical presentation in the form of diagrams, which greatly simplifies understanding. The results also make it possible to justify the next stage of the scientific research - modeling plastic in the Don River.

The purpose of this study is to examine the question of whether the current form of economic higher education meets the goals of sustainable education. In order to do this, author examined whether university students studying economics perform better in a special financial field, in their answers to the question of borrowing. For this purpose, author analysed the results of his own previous questionnaire survey using statistical methods. Among the questions in the questionnaire was selected those that examine theoretical and practical knowledge related to loans. The results show that the level of theoretical and practical financial knowledge of Hungarian higher education students can still be improved. In order to do this, the basic knowledge should be generally taught in the financial courses in higher education, while more specific knowledge should be differentiated. A limitation of the research is that it only examined Hungarian university students, it may be worthwhile searching for foreign students with another query. Its originality, on the other hand, is the demonstration that in sustainable higher education, in addition to the introduction of new educational content and methods, students shall also acquire the ability of lifelong learning

This paper deals with the actual problem of comprehensive understanding of what has happened in the world system of higher education as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, and the forecasts about drastic changes in this system in the nearest future. The situation with the pandemic worldwide has developed so quickly and was so unprecedented that no one has had the opportunity to use anyone's experience to overcome the challenges related to the need for self-isolation. Universities in different countries, regions and cities had to make decisions at their own risk. In some ways these decisions surprisingly coincided, in some ways they were completely different. Therefore, the opportunity to compare and analyze the world experience in order to meet the challenges of the global crisis is of particular importance today. In addition, public discourse on this topic is a kind of social construction, in the process of which possible scenarios for the future of higher education are coming into life. These scenarios can become real world strategies for both individual universities and the global university system as a whole. The global challenges that have emerged over the past year enabled the authors to take a fresh look at the process of foreign language teaching at higher engineering institutions with the use of modern digital technologies. Digital technologies for foreign language teaching are only one of several social distancing initiatives that currently need to be applied for students' education. The authors reveal benefits and drawbacks of online learning in general, and the Zoom platform in particular. The paper also describes the Moodle platform with its vast capacity for learning foreign languages

The authors of the article provide an analysis of current problems of learning and teaching related to traditional and distance learning. The experience of teaching methodologists in different countries of the world allows us to objectively assess the pros and cons of traditional and distance learning. Feedback from students must be taken into account when conducting modern classes. This is very important in the professional training of students in various areas, in obtaining professional knowledge that needs to be consolidated in practice. Using the method of comparison and grouping, the study analyzed a series of surveys of 180 students aged 17-35 years, as well as a survey of 150 teachers. The obtained material gives important results applicable in the practice of working with university students. Creating the necessary and safe conditions for student learning, as well as more active use of Internet resources. This problem is very relevant for teachers and students of foreign countries and for Russia.

The global upheavals of recent years have had a serious impact on the personal well-being of citizens. It becomes important for a person to effectively manage the family budget, which requires increasing the level of knowledge about finance, economics, investments, etc. The purpose of the report is to study foreign experience and Kazakhstan's experience in improving financial literacy. Practice shows that the formation of financial literacy, instilling culture and reasonable, rational behavior is necessary for society and the economy as a whole. It is possible to achieve such results by changing a person's consciousness. The younger generation has a huge potential in this regard. Currently, only some aspects of economic thinking are addressed in the works of teachers. The methodology of the article is based on the study of the works of foreign authors on the problems of the impact of crises of various etymologies and origins on the change in financial literacy, including certain elements: levels, factors, policy, structure. The result of the study was to identify the features of financial literacy systems in different countries. The analysis showed that financial literacy is considered a well-developed element in the general model of economic consciousness formation. However, at the present stage, the problem of financial literacy and economic awareness is not given due attention in countries, including developed ones. The article was prepared within the framework of the project of grant financing of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan "transformation of the economic consciousness of society in the conditions of the pathology of the economy (on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan)" (IRN AR09259332).

The global upheavals of recent years have had a serious impact on the personal well-being of citizens. It becomes important for a person to effectively manage the family budget, which requires increasing the level of knowledge about finance, economics, investments, etc. The purpose of the report is to study foreign experience and Kazakhstan's experience in improving financial literacy. Practice shows that the formation of financial literacy, instilling culture and reasonable, rational behavior is necessary for society and the economy as a whole. It is possible to achieve such results by changing a person's consciousness. The younger generation has a huge potential in this regard. Currently, only some aspects of economic thinking are addressed in the works of teachers. The methodology of the article is based on the study of the works of foreign authors on the problems of the impact of crises of various etymologies and origins on the change in financial literacy, including certain elements: levels, factors, policy, structure. The result of the study was to identify the features of financial literacy systems in different countries. The analysis showed that financial literacy is considered a well-developed element in the general model of economic consciousness formation. However, at the present stage, the problem of financial literacy and economic awareness is not given due attention in countries, including developed ones. The article was prepared within the framework of the project of grant financing of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan "transformation of the economic consciousness of society in the conditions of the pathology of the economy (on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan)" (IRN AR09259332).

As part of the effort to foster a more systematic approach to commercial building energy data collection and reporting, this paper aims to bring out the "lived experience" of on-ground data collection from the recently concluded Hospital Energy Consumption Survey conceptualized and conducted by the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India, under the aegis of the National Program for Climate Change and Human Health. It was administered and overseen by the Alliance for Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE) and the Centre for Chronic Disease Control (CCDC). This paper captures the authors' on-ground survey experience and transferable learning, typically precluded from technical survey reports. The authors believe that given the challenges in collecting relevant energy data from the buildings sector, their experiences can offer a unique insight into the on-ground realities of collecting technical data and suggest transferrable learnings that can help make future commercial building energy consumption surveys quicker, less cumbersome, less costly, and more effective.

The central thesis of this paper is that e-learning courses can have a significant impact on English language for specific purposes (ESP) proficiency of mining mechanical engineering students. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of ESP Moodle-based course “English for Mining Mechanical Engineers” and to reveal the results of its experimental approbation. In order to identify the lectures’ and learners’ needs we have applied the survey research. The survey confirmed the greatest demand for Moodle courses that include all the elements of a coherent training manual to provide self-development of engineering students. The interview results contributed to design of author’s ESP course syllabus. The importance and originality of this study are that to approbate the course materials’ effectiveness two approaches have been adopted simultaneously. The first is blended learning method based on e-learning platform applied in the experimental group and the second one is classic in-class instructor-led studying used in a control group. Students’ progress in ESP proficiency has been assessed using the cross assessment method. The experiment has validated the initial hypothesis that the special online courses focused on honing foreign language skills and integrated in the domain of specific professional knowledge have a beneficial effect on students’ communicative competencies in general. There were identified the advantages of self-tuition based on Moodle platform. The Moodle course lets the teachers save considerable in-class time to focus more on communicative assignments. The findings of this study have a number of practical implications in ESP online courses development.

The article analyzes the media discourse around the figure of Oriana Fallachi and her journalistic work during 2017-2020. The actual media image of the figure of Fallachi is highlighted, examples of positive and negative statements are given. It is substantiated why her journalism should be researched in various ways, taking into account other aspects of her work that are not related to Islamophobia. The subject of the study is critical texts in modern foreign media dedicated to the author’s work. The objective of the study is to outline the media discourse around the figure of Oriana Fallaci and her journalism during 2017-2020. The methodology. The following methods have been used in the process of scientific research: historical, comparative, systems analysis, content synthesis, and others. The main results. In total, we have analyzed eight materials in foreign publications, published over the past 3 years, as well as the two most famous biographies of Oriana Fallaci. Some of the most recent reviewed texts have been published in the last few months, reflecting the interest in the author’s journalism, her writing, and reporting. Therefore, we see the need for further tracking and analysis of this body of texts. Conclusions. Critics of Fallaci express polar views that are not all negative. Authors re­commend quite cautiously her texts for reading, emphasizing their positive aspects. Both Fallaci’s biographies are also not entirely complementary: some aspects of her work are glorified, others are condemned. We managed to find general tendencies in the criticism of Oriana Fallaci’s journalism. These include accusations of xenophobia and Islamophobia, uncompromisingness, lack of political correctness, and moral value. The authors emphasize, at the same time, the openness and directness that bribe the reader, patriotism and honesty, strength of spirit and firmness of position. Significance of the research. The analysis of the latest criticism reveals what kind of media image Fallachi’s figure has today, and gives the possibility to research it for demonization and one-sided coverage. This is important not only for thorough research of the author’s work but also for understanding how the modern world perceives journalism, which is contrary to the generally accepted principles of political correctness, journalistic ethics, and humanity.

With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such analysis is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. Yet these models have been widely criticized for performing poorly (Kehoe, 2002) and having weak econometric foundations (McKitrick, 1998; Jorgenson, 1984). FTA results have been shown to be particularly sensitive to the trade elasticities, with small trade elasticities generating large terms of trade effects and relatively modest efficiency gains, whereas large trade elasticities lead to the opposite result. Critics are understandably wary of results being determined largely by the authors’ choice of trade elasticities. Where do these trade elasticities come from? CGE modelers typically draw these elasticities from econometric work that uses time series price variation to identify an elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and composite imports (Alaouze, 1977; Alaouze, et al., 1977; Stern et al., 1976; Gallaway, McDaniel and Rivera, 2003). This approach has three problems: the use of point estimates as “truth”, the magnitude of the point estimates, and estimating the relevant elasticity. First, modelers take point estimates drawn from the econometric literature, while ignoring the precision of these estimates. As we will make clear below, the confidence one has in various CGE conclusions depends critically on the size of the confidence interval around parameter estimates. Standard “robustness checks” such as systematically raising or lowering the substitution parameters does not properly address this problem because it ignores information about which parameters we know with some precision and which we do not. A second problem with most existing studies derives from the use of import price series to identify home vs. foreign substitution, for example, tends to systematically understate the true elasticity. This is because these estimates take price variation as exogenous when estimating the import demand functions, and ignore quality variation. When quality is high, import demand and prices will be jointly high. This biases estimated elasticities toward zero. A related point is that the fixed-weight import price series used by most authors are theoretically inappropriate for estimating the elasticities of interest. CGE modelers generally examine a nested utility structure, with domestic production substitution for a CES composite import bundle. The appropriate price series is then the corresponding CES price index among foreign varieties. Constructing such an index requires knowledge of the elasticity of substitution among foreign varieties (see below). By using a fixed-weight import price series, previous estimates place too much weight on high foreign prices, and too small a weight on low foreign prices. In other words, they overstate the degree of price variation that exists, relative to a CES price index. Reconciling small trade volume movements with large import price series movements requires a small elasticity of substitution. This problem, and that of unmeasured quality variation, helps explain why typical estimated elasticities are very small. The third problem with the existing literature is that estimates taken from other researchers’ studies typically employ different levels of aggregation, and exploit different sources of price variation, from what policy modelers have in mind. Employment of elasticities in experiments ill-matched to their original estimation can be problematic. For example, estimates may be calculated at a higher or lower level of aggregation than the level of analysis than the modeler wants to examine. Estimating substitutability across sources for paddy rice gives one a quite different answer than estimates that look at agriculture as a whole. When analyzing Free Trade Agreements, the principle policy experiment is a change in relative prices among foreign suppliers caused by lowering tariffs within the FTA. Understanding the substitution this will induce across those suppliers is critical to gauging the FTA’s real effects. Using home v. foreign elasticities rather than elasticities of substitution among imports supplied from different countries may be quite misleading. Moreover, these “sourcing” elasticities are critical for constructing composite import price series to appropriate estimate home v. foreign substitutability. In summary, the history of estimating the substitution elasticities governing trade flows in CGE models has been checkered at best. Clearly there is a need for improved econometric estimation of these trade elasticities that is well-integrated into the CGE modeling framework. This paper provides such estimation and integration, and has several significant merits. First, we choose our experiment carefully. Our CGE analysis focuses on the prospective Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) currently under negotiation. This is one of the most important FTAs currently “in play” in international negotiations. It also fits nicely with the source data used to estimate the trade elasticities, which is largely based on imports into North and South America. Our assessment is done in a perfectly competitive, comparative static setting in order to emphasize the role of the trade elasticities in determining the conventional gains/losses from such an FTA. This type of model is still widely used by government agencies for the evaluation of such agreements. Extensions to incorporate imperfect competition are straightforward, but involve the introduction of additional parameters (markups, extent of unexploited scale economies) as well as structural assumptions (entry/no-entry, nature of inter-firm rivalry) that introduce further uncertainty. Since our focus is on the effects of a PTA we estimate elasticities of substitution across multiple foreign supply sources. We do not use cross-exporter variation in prices or tariffs alone. Exporter price series exhibit a high degree of multicolinearity, and in any case, would be subject to unmeasured quality variation as described previously. Similarly, tariff variation by itself is typically unhelpful because by their very nature, Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs are non-discriminatory in nature, affecting all suppliers in the same way. Tariff preferences, where they exist, are often difficult to measure – sometimes being confounded by quantitative barriers, restrictive rules of origin, and other restrictions. Instead we employ a unique methodology and data set drawing on not only tariffs, but also bilateral transportation costs for goods traded internationally (Hummels, 1999). Transportation costs vary much more widely than do tariffs, allowing much more precise estimation of the trade elasticities that are central to CGE analysis of FTAs. We have highly disaggregated commodity trade flow data, and are therefore able to provide estimates that precisely match the commodity aggregation scheme employed in the subsequent CGE model. We follow the GTAP Version 5.0 aggregation scheme which includes 42 merchandise trade commodities covering food products, natural resources and manufactured goods. With the exception of two primary commodities that are not traded, we are able to estimate trade elasticities for all merchandise commodities that are significantly different form zero at the 95% confidence level. Rather than producing point estimates of the resulting welfare, export and employment effects, we report confidence intervals instead. These are based on repeated solution of the model, drawing from a distribution of trade elasticity estimates constructed based on the econometrically estimated standard errors. There is now a long history of CGE studies based on SSA: Systematic Sensitivity Analysis (Harrison and Vinod, 1992; Wigle, 1991; Pagon and Shannon, 1987) Ho

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.