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1
Petrosyants, Andranik Melkonovich. "THE RESEARCH PROGRAMME OF THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES." Economy. Business. Computer science, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 169–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.19075/2500-2074-2016-3-169-174.
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Meehl, Gerald A. "Global Coupled General Circulation Models." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76, no. 6 (June 1, 1995): 951–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-76.6.951.
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Major conclusions and recommendations regarding the status of global coupled general circulation models are presented here from a workshop convened by the World Climate Research Programme Steering Group on Global Coupled Modelling that was held from 10 to 12 October 1994 at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California. The purpose of the workshop was to assess the current state of the art of global coupled modeling on the decadal and longer timescales in terms of methodology and results to identify the major issues and problems facing this activity and to discuss possible alternatives for making progress in light of these problems. This workshop brought together representatives from nearly every group in the world actively involved in formulating and running such models. After presentations by workshop participants, four working groups identified key issues involving 1) initialization and model spinup, 2) strategies and techniques for coupling of model components, 3) flux correction/adjustment, and 4) secular drift and systematic errors. The participants concluded that improved communication between those engaged in this activity will be important to enhance further progress. Consequently, the World Climate Research Programme intends to continue the support of internationally coordinated activities in global coupled modeling.
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Dipasquale, R. C., and C. H. Whitlock. "Global distribution of surface shortwave fluxes derived from satellite data for the world climate research programme." International Journal of Climatology 15, no. 9 (September 1995): 961–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370150903.
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Fuzzi, S., M. O. Andreae, B. J. Huebert, M. Kulmala, T. C. Bond, M. Boy, S. J. Doherty, et al. "Critical assessment of the current state of scientific knowledge, terminology, and research needs concerning the role of organic aerosols in the atmosphere, climate, and global change." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 5, no. 6 (November 16, 2005): 11729–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-5-11729-2005.
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Abstract. In spite of impressive advances in recent years, our present understanding of organic aerosol (OA) composition, physical and chemical properties, sources and transformation characteristics is still rather limited, and their environmental effects remain highly uncertain. Therefore, the three atmosphere-related projects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) – IGAC (International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project), iLEAPS (Integrated Land Ecosystem Atmosphere Process Study) and SOLAS (Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study) – organised a workshop with the specific goal of discussing and prioritizing issues related to organic aerosol and their effects on atmospheric processes and climate, providing a basis for future collaborative activities at the international level. Four main topical areas were addressed: (a) sources of OA; (b) formation and transformation of OA; (c) physical and chemical state of OA; (d) atmospheric modelling of OA. Key questions and research priorities regarding these four areas have been synthesized in this paper, and outstanding issues for future research are presented for each topical area. In addition, an effort is made to formulate a basic set of consistent and universally applicable terms and definitions for coherent description of atmospheric OA across different scientific scales and disciplines. In fact, the terminologies used in the past and present scientific literature are not always consistent, and this may lead to misunderstandings and confusion in the communication between specialists from different disciplines and potentially inhibit or retard scientific progress.
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Pearman, Graeme I., Paul J. Fraser, and John R. Garratt. "CSIRO High-precision Measurement of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration in Australia. Part 2: Cape Grim, Surface CO2 Measurements and Carbon Cycle Modelling." Historical Records of Australian Science 28, no. 2 (2017): 126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/hr17015.
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A companion paper discusses the history of, and rationale for, the development of a CSIRO programme of atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) concentration measurements in Australia based on aircraft air sampling, field and laboratory measurements.1 Here, we describe parallel efforts to establish a permanent, ground-based atmospheric Baseline Station at Cape Grim, north-west Tasmania, the political activity required for its establishment, and the work undertaken to select a site commensurate with its long-term objectives. Additional CO2 measurements undertaken to complement the aircraft and Cape Grim measurements are discussed. The development of the Australian Baseline Station was part of an emerging international effort to obtain high-precision measurements of trace gas and aerosol composition of the atmosphere, and to quantify any changes in composition that might be occurring and their possible impact on global climate.We discuss the early development of global carbon cycle models, including the representations of atmospheric transport, and the interpretation of modern atmospheric CO2 data and historic air samples encapsulated in Antarctic ice and firn. The accumulated knowledge from these research activities, together with that collected by international colleagues, forms the basis of our understanding of changes occurring in CO2 concentration. It has contributed to an understanding of the mechanisms of the past and present biogeochemical cycling of CO2, providing predictions of future changes in CO2 concentration.
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Lawford, R. G., R. Stewart, J. Roads, H. J. Isemer, M. Manton, J. Marengo, T. Yasunari, S. Benedict, T. Koike, and S. Williams. "Advancing Global-and Continental-Scale Hydrometeorology: Contributions of GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85, no. 12 (December 1, 2004): 1917–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-85-12-1917.
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Over the past 9 years, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), has coordinated the activities of the Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) and other related research through the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP). The GHP contributes to the WCRP'S objective of “developing the fundamental scientific understanding of the physical climate system and climate processes [that is] needed to determine to what extent climate can be predicted and the extent of man's influence on climate.” It also contributes to more specific GEWEX objectives, such as determining the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes, modeling the global hydrological cycle and its impacts, developing a capability to predict variations in global and regional hydrological processes, and fostering the development of observing techniques, data management and assimilation systems. GHP activities include diagnosis, simulation, and experimental prediction of regional water balances and process and modeling studies aimed at understanding and predicting the variability of the global water cycle, with an emphasis on regional coupled land–atmosphere processes. GHP efforts are central to providing a scientific basis for assessing critical science issues, such as the consequences of climate change for the intensification of the global hydrological cycle and its potential impacts on regional water resources. This article provides an overview of the role and evolution of the GHP and describes scientific issues that the GHP is seeking to address in collaboration with the international science community.
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Saikawa, E., M. Rigby, R. G. Prinn, S. A. Montzka, B. R. Miller, L. J. M. Kuijpers, P. J. B. Fraser, et al. "Global and regional emission estimates for HCFC-22." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 21 (November 1, 2012): 10033–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10033-2012.
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Abstract. HCFC-22 (CHClF2, chlorodifluoromethane) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG). HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head) using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as well as existing bottom-up emission estimates, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions between 2005 and 2009 from developing countries in Asia – the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite production and consumption being phased out in developed countries currently.
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Batté, Lauriane, Constantin Ardilouze, and Michel Déqué. "Forecasting West African Heat Waves at Subseasonal and Seasonal Time Scales." Monthly Weather Review 146, no. 3 (March 1, 2018): 889–907. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-17-0211.1.
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Abstract Early indication of an increased risk of extremely warm conditions could help alleviate some of the consequences of severe heat waves on human health. This study focuses on boreal spring heat wave events over West Africa and the Sahel and examines the long-range predictability and forecast quality of these events with two coupled forecasting systems designed at Météo-France, both based on the CNRM-CM coupled global climate model: the operational seasonal forecasting System 5 and the experimental contribution to the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme (WWRP/WCRP) subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) project. Evaluation is based on past reforecasts spanning 22 years, from 1993 to 2014, compared to reference data from reanalyses. On the seasonal time scale, skill in reproducing interannual anomalies of heat wave duration is limited at a gridpoint level but is significant for regional averages. Subseasonal predictability of daily humidity-corrected apparent temperature drops sharply beyond the deterministic range. In addition to reforecast skill measures, the analysis of real-time forecasts for 2016, both in terms of anomalies with respect to the reforecast climatology and using a weather-type approach, provides additional insight on the systems’ performance in giving relevant information on the possible occurrence of such events.
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Takahashi, Ken. "The Global Hydrological Cycle and Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption in Climate Models under CO2 Forcing." Journal of Climate 22, no. 21 (November 1, 2009): 5667–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2674.1.
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Abstract The spread among the predictions by climate models for the strengthening of the global hydrological cycle [i.e., the global mean surface latent heat flux (LH), or, equivalently, precipitation] at a given level of CO2-induced global warming is of the same magnitude as the intermodel mean. By comparing several climate models from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) database under idealized CO2 forcings, it is shown that differences in the increase in global atmospheric shortwave heating (SWabs) induced by clear-sky absorption, presumably by water vapor, partly explains this spread. The increases in SWabs and LH present similar spreads across models but are anticorrelated, so the sum SWabs + LH increases more robustly than either alone. This is consistent with a recently proposed theory (Takahashi) that predicts that this sum (or, equivalently, the net longwave divergence minus the surface sensible heat flux) is constrained by energy conservation and robust longwave physics. The intermodel scatter in SWabs changes is explained neither by differences in the radiative transfer models nor in intermodel differences in global water vapor content change, but perhaps by more subtle aspects of the changes in the water vapor distribution. Nevertheless, the fact that the radiative transfer models generally underestimate the increase in SWabs relative to the corresponding line-by-line calculation for a given change in water vapor content suggests that the climate models might be overestimating the rate of increase in the global hydrological cycle with global warming.
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Vitart, F., C. Ardilouze, A. Bonet, A. Brookshaw, M. Chen, C. Codorean, M. Déqué, et al. "The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. 1 (January 1, 2017): 163–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0017.1.
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Abstract Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days). The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability.” In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of subseasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database also represents an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multimodel combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over the islands of Vanuatu 2–3 weeks before Tropical Cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015.
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Saikawa, E., M. Rigby, R. G. Prinn, S. A. Montzka, B. R. Miller, L. J. M. Kuijpers, P. J. B. Fraser, et al. "Global and regional emissions estimates for HCFC-22." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 7 (July 25, 2012): 18243–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-18243-2012.
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Abstract. HCFC-22 (CHClF_2, chlorodifluoromethane) is an ozone-depleting substance (ODS) as well as a significant greenhouse gas (GHG). HCFC-22 has been used widely as a refrigerant fluid in cooling and air-conditioning equipment since the 1960s, and it has also served as a traditional substitute for some chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) controlled under the Montreal Protocol. A low frequency record on tropospheric HCFC-22 since the late 1970s is available from measurements of the Southern Hemisphere Cape Grim Air Archive (CGAA) and a few Northern Hemisphere air samples (mostly from Trinidad Head) using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. Since the 1990s high-frequency, high-precision, in situ HCFC-22 measurements have been collected at these AGAGE stations. Since 1992, the Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected flasks on a weekly basis from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of halocarbons including HCFC-22. Additionally, since 2006 flasks have been collected approximately daily at a number of tower sites across the US and analyzed for halocarbons and other gases at NOAA. All results show an increase in the atmospheric mole fractions of HCFC-22, and recent data show a growth rate of approximately 4% per year, resulting in an increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction by a factor of 1.7 from 1995 to 2009. Using data on HCFC-22 consumption submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), as well as an existing bottom-up emissions estimate, we first create globally-gridded a priori HCFC-22 emissions over the 15 yr since 1995. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4) and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions. Our inversion indicates that the global HCFC-22 emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2009. We further find a surge in HCFC-22 emissions in 2009 from developing countries in Asia – the largest emitting region including China and India. Globally, substantial emissions continue despite current phase-out of production and consumption in developed countries.
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Meehl, Gerald A., Curt Covey, Thomas Delworth, Mojib Latif, Bryant McAvaney, John F. B. Mitchell, Ronald J. Stouffer, and Karl E. Taylor. "THE WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88, no. 9 (September 1, 2007): 1383–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-9-1383.
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A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.
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Rothschild, Brian J. "On the birth and death of ideas in marine science†." ICES Journal of Marine Science 72, no. 5 (March 11, 2015): 1237–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv027.
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Abstract In this essay, I review six decades of my career in marine science and fisheries, considering the ideas that came and went in the period as “food for thought”. I describe my inspirations and successes, and my disappointments and failures. My activities were both administrative and research-oriented. As regards the former, I was part of major changes in ocean policy and new ocean research programmes that gave me a unique perspective. For example, I was responsible for the implementation of the US extended jurisdiction in fisheries under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Also I conceived and led the creation of the Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics Programme (GLOBEC) and guided it in many international contexts, including its integration with the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP). From a research standpoint, my efforts leading up to GLOBEC strongly influenced the introduction of ocean physics into biological oceanography. This led me into plankton dynamics, food signals, small-scale turbulence and physical forcing, even into the stochastic geometry of the plankton. My life-long interest in the dynamics of marine fish populations was strongly influenced by the seminal thinkers in fisheries and my research explored population regulation processes as well as practical applications of statistics and operations research to fisheries management. In my last academic post, I became founding Dean of the School for Marine Science and Technology (SMAST) at the University of Massachusetts. This position required integrating administrative and research (both pure and applied) perspectives to create an institution of academic excellence which was at the same time actively responsive to issues arising in our local, nationally prominent fisheries. I end the essay with a consideration of “what has changed”.
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Park, Kylie J., Kei Yoshimura, Hyungjun Kim, and Taikan Oki. "Chronological Development of Terrestrial Mean Precipitation." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. 11 (November 1, 2017): 2411–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0005.1.
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Abstract Over 150 years of investigations into global terrestrial precipitation are revisited to reveal how researchers estimated annual means from in situ observations before the age of digitization. After introducing early regional efforts to measure precipitation, the pioneering estimates of terrestrial mean precipitation from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries are compared to successive estimates, including those using the latest gridded precipitation datasets available. The investigation reveals that the range of the early estimates is comparable to the interannual variation in terrestrial mean precipitation derived from the latest Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset. In-depth revisions of the estimates were infrequent up to the 1970s, due in part to difficulty obtaining and maintaining up-to-date datasets with global coverage. This point is illustrated in a “family tree” that identifies the key publications that subsequent authors referenced, sometimes decades after the original publication. Significant efforts to collate global observations facilitated new investigations and improved data exchange, for example, in the International Hydrological Decade (1965–74) and following the establishment of the Global Telecommunication System under the World Weather Watch Programme of the World Meteorological Organization. Also in the 1970s were the first attempts to adjust in situ observations on a global scale to account for gauge undercatch, and this had a noticeable impact on mean annual estimates. There remains no single satisfactory approach to gauge bias adjustment. Echoing the repeated message of past researchers, today’s authors cite poor spatial coverage, temporal inhomogeneity, and inadequate sharing of in situ observations as the key obstacles to obtaining more accurate estimates of terrestrial mean precipitation.
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Yuan, Xing, Joshua K. Roundy, Eric F. Wood, and Justin Sheffield. "Seasonal Forecasting of Global Hydrologic Extremes: System Development and Evaluation over GEWEX Basins." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96, no. 11 (November 1, 2015): 1895–912. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00003.1.
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Abstract Seasonal hydrologic extremes in the form of droughts and wet spells have devastating impacts on human and natural systems. Improving understanding and predictive capability of hydrologic extremes, and facilitating adaptations through establishing climate service systems at regional to global scales are among the grand challenges proposed by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and are the core themes of the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) under the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). An experimental global seasonal hydrologic forecasting system has been developed that is based on coupled climate forecast models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project and an advanced land surface hydrologic model. The system is evaluated over major GEWEX RHP river basins by comparing with ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). The multimodel seasonal forecast system provides higher detectability for soil moisture droughts, more reliable low and high f low ensemble forecasts, and better “real time” prediction for the 2012 North American extreme drought. The association of the onset of extreme hydrologic events with oceanic and land precursors is also investigated based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. Climate models have a higher probability of missing the onset of hydrologic extremes when there is no oceanic precursor. But oceanic precursor alone is insufficient to guarantee a correct forecast—a land precursor is also critical in avoiding a false alarm for forecasting extremes. This study is targeted at providing the scientific underpinning for the predictability of hydrologic extremes over GEWEX RHP basins and serves as a prototype for seasonal hydrologic forecasts within the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).
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Duan, Yihong, Jiandong Gong, Jun Du, Martin Charron, Jing Chen, Guo Deng, Geoff DiMego, et al. "An Overview of the Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP)." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93, no. 3 (March 1, 2012): 381–403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00115.1.
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The Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP), initiated in 2004 under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), undertook the research and development of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (MEPSs) and their application to weather forecast support during the Beijing Olympic Games. Six MEPSs from six countries, representing the state-of-the-art regional EPSs with near-real-time capabilities and emphasizing on the 6–36-h forecast lead times, participated in the project. The background, objectives, and implementation of B08RDP, as well as the six MEPSs, are reviewed. The accomplishments are summarized, which include 1) providing value-added service to the Olympic Games, 2) advancing MEPS-related research, 3) accelerating the transition from research to operations, and 4) training forecasters in utilizing forecast uncertainty products. The B08RDP has fulfilled its research (MEPS development) and demonstration (value-added service) purposes. The research conducted covers the areas of verification, examining the value of MEPS relative to other numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, combining multimodel or multicenter ensembles, bias correction, ensemble perturbations [initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), land surface IC, and model physics], downscaling, forecast applications, data assimilation, and storm-scale ensemble modeling. Seven scientific issues important to MEPS have been identified. It is recognized that the daily use of forecast uncertainty information by forecasters remains a challenge. Development of forecaster-friendly products and training activities should be a long-term effort and needs to be continuously enhanced. The B08RDP dataset is also a valuable asset to the research community. The experience gained in international collaboration, organization, and implementation of a multination regional EPS for a common goal and to address common scientific issues can be shared by the ongoing projects The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble—Limited Area Models (TIGGE-LAM) and North American Ensemble Forecast System—Limited Area Models (NAEFS-LAM).
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Keppens, Arno, Jean-Christopher Lambert, José Granville, Daan Hubert, Tijl Verhoelst, Steven Compernolle, Barry Latter, et al. "Quality assessment of the Ozone_cci Climate Research Data Package (release 2017) – Part 2: Ground-based validation of nadir ozone profile data products." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 11, no. 6 (June 27, 2018): 3769–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3769-2018.
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Abstract. Atmospheric ozone plays a key role in air quality and the radiation budget of the Earth, both directly and through its chemical influence on other trace gases. Assessments of the atmospheric ozone distribution and associated climate change therefore demand accurate vertically resolved ozone observations with both stratospheric and tropospheric sensitivity, on both global and regional scales, and both in the long term and at shorter timescales. Such observations have been acquired by two series of European nadir-viewing ozone profilers, namely the scattered-light UV–visible spectrometers of the GOME family, launched regularly since 1995 (GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A/B, TROPOMI, and the upcoming Sentinel-5 series), and the thermal infrared emission sounders of the IASI type, launched regularly since 2006 (IASI on Metop platforms and the upcoming IASI-NG on Metop-SG). In particular, several Level-2 retrieved, Level-3 monthly gridded, and Level-4 assimilated nadir ozone profile data products have been improved and harmonized in the context of the ozone project of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA Ozone_cci). To verify their fitness for purpose, these ozone datasets must undergo a comprehensive quality assessment (QA), including (a) detailed identification of their geographical, vertical, and temporal domains of validity; (b) quantification of their potential bias, noise, and drift and their dependences on major influence quantities; and (c) assessment of the mutual consistency of data from different sounders. For this purpose we have applied to the Ozone_cci Climate Research Data Package (CRDP) released in 2017 the versatile QA and validation system Multi-TASTE, which has been developed in the context of several heritage projects (ESA's Multi-TASTE, EUMETSAT's O3M-SAF, and the European Commission's FP6 GEOmon and FP7 QA4ECV). This work, as the second in a series of four Ozone_cci validation papers, reports for the first time on data content studies, information content studies and ground-based validation for both the GOME- and IASI-type climate data records combined. The ground-based reference measurements have been provided by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), NASA's Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde programme (SHADOZ), and other ozonesonde and lidar stations contributing to the World Meteorological Organisation's Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO GAW). The nadir ozone profile CRDP quality assessment reveals that all nadir ozone profile products under study fulfil the GCOS user requirements in terms of observation frequency and horizontal and vertical resolution. Yet all L2 observations also show sensitivity outliers in the UTLS and are strongly correlated vertically due to substantial averaging kernel fluctuations that extend far beyond the kernel's 15 km FWHM. The CRDP typically does not comply with the GCOS user requirements in terms of total uncertainty and decadal drift, except for the UV–visible L4 dataset. The drift values of the L2 GOME and OMI, the L3 IASI, and the L4 assimilated products are found to be overall insignificant, however, and applying appropriate altitude-dependent bias and drift corrections make the data fit for climate and atmospheric composition monitoring and modelling purposes. Dependence of the Ozone_cci data quality on major influence quantities – resulting in data screening suggestions to users – and perspectives for the Copernicus Sentinel missions are additionally discussed.
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Klaes, K. Dieter, Marc Cohen, Yves Buhler, Peter Schlüssel, Rosemary Munro, Juha-Pekka Luntama, Axel von Engeln, et al. "An Introduction to the EUMETSAT Polar system." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88, no. 7 (July 1, 2007): 1085–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-7-1085.
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The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Polar System is the European contribution to the European–U.S. operational polar meteorological satellite system (Initial Joint Polar System). It serves the midmorning (a.m.) orbit 0930 Local Solar Time (LST) descending node. The EUMETSAT satellites of this new polar system are the Meteorological Operational Satellite (Metop) satellites, jointly developed with ESA. Three Metop satellites are foreseen for at least 14 years of operation from 2006 onward and will support operational meteorology and climate monitoring. The Metop Programme includes the development of some instruments, such as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, Advanced Scatterometer, and the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding, which are advanced instruments of recent successful research missions. Core components of the Metop payload, common with the payload on the U.S. satellites, are the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and the Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) package, composed of the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A), and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). They provide continuity to the NOAA-K, -L, -M satellite series (in orbit known as NOAA-15, -16 and -17). MHS is a EUMETSAT development and replaces the AMSU-B instrument in the ATOVS suite. The Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) instrument, developed by the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, provides hyperspectral resolution infrared sounding capabilities and represents new technology in operational satellite remote sensing.
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Hector, Andy, David Fowler, Ruth Nussbaum, Maja Weilenmann, and Rory P. D. Walsh. "The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 366, no. 1582 (November 27, 2011): 3165–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0174.
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With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.
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Carter, Timothy R. "Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions." Agricultural and Food Science 5, no. 3 (May 1, 1996): 235–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.72743.
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Future changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global and regional climate change are of increasing concern to policy makers, planners and the public. However, predictions of these changes are uncertain. In the absence of single, firm predictions, the next best approach is to identify sets of plausible future conditions termed scenarios. This paper focuses on the development of climate change scenarios for northern high latitude regions. Three methods of scenario development can be identified; use of analogues having conditions similar to those expected in the study region, application of general circulation model results, and composite methods that combine information from different sources. A composite approach has been used to produce scenarios of temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide and sea-level change for Finland up to 2100, as part of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Tools for applying these scenarios in impact assessment studies, including stochastic weather generators and spatial downscaling techniques, are also examined. The SILMU scenarios attempt to capture uncertainties both in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and in the global climate response to these emissions. Two types of scenario were developed: (i) simple “policy-oriented” scenarios and (ii) detailed “scientific” scenarios. These are compared with new model estimates of future climate and recent observed changes in climate over certain high latitude regions.
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Yan, Yingying, Jintai Lin, Jinxuan Chen, and Lu Hu. "Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, no. 4 (February 29, 2016): 2381–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2381-2016.
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Abstract. Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3), but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry–climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100–500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD), the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS)), aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC)) and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0–9 km) mean bias by 3–10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions. Within the nested domains, the two-way coupled simulation reduces surface ozone biases relative to typical GEOS-Chem one-way nested simulations, due to much improved LBCs. The bias reduction is 1–7 times the bias reduction from the global to the one-way nested simulation. Improving model representations of small-scale processes is important for understanding the global and regional tropospheric chemistry.
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Janssens-Maenhout, G., M. Crippa, D. Guizzardi, F. Dentener, M. Muntean, G. Pouliot, T. Keating, et al. "HTAP_v2.2: a mosaic of regional and global emission grid maps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15, no. 19 (October 15, 2015): 11411–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11411-2015.
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Abstract. The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions data set has been constructed using regional emission grid maps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories – including that of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for USA, the EPA and Environment Canada (for Canada), the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) for China, India and other Asian countries – was gap-filled with the emission grid maps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude-latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific grid maps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant grid maps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global data set. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal resolution and detailed information on the data sources and references used will provide the user the required transparency. Because HTAP_v2.2 contains primarily official and/or widely used regional emission grid maps, it can be recommended as a global baseline emission inventory, which is regionally accepted as a reference and from which different scenarios assessing emission reduction policies at a global scale could start. An analysis of country-specific implied emission factors shows a large difference between industrialised countries and developing countries for acidifying gaseous air pollutant emissions (SO2 and NOx) from the energy and industry sectors. This is not observed for the particulate matter emissions (PM10, PM2.5), which show large differences between countries in the residential sector instead. The per capita emissions of all world countries, classified from low to high income, reveal an increase in level and in variation for gaseous acidifying pollutants, but not for aerosols. For aerosols, an opposite trend is apparent with higher per capita emissions of particulate matter for low income countries.
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Piriou, Jean-Marcel, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Jean-François Geleyn, Jean-Philippe Lafore, and Françoise Guichard. "An Approach for Convective Parameterization with Memory: Separating Microphysics and Transport in Grid-Scale Equations." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 64, no. 11 (November 1, 2007): 4127–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jas2144.1.
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Abstract An approach for convective parameterization is presented here, in which grid-scale budget equations of parameterization use separate microphysics and transport terms. This separation is used both as a way to introduce into the parameterization a more explicit causal link between all involved processes and as a vehicle for an easier representation of the memory of convective cells. The equations of parameterization become closer to those of convection-resolving models [cloud-system-resolving models (CSRMs) and large-eddy simulations (LESs)], facilitating parameterization development and validation processes versus a detailed budget of these high-resolution models. The new Microphysics and Transport Convective Scheme (MTCS) equations are presented and discussed. A first version of a convective scheme based on these equations is tested within a single-column framework. The results obtained with the new scheme are close to those of traditional ones in very moist convective cases [like the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) Phase III, 1974]. The simulation of more difficult drier situations [European Cloud Systems Study/Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Studies (EUROCS/GCSS)] is improved through more memory due to higher sensitivity of simulated convection to dry midtropospheric layers; a prognostic relation between cloudy entrainment and precipitation evaporation dramatically improves the prediction of the phase lag of the convective diurnal cycle over land with respect to surface heat forcing. The present proposal contains both a relatively general equation set, which can deal continuously with dry, moist, and deep precipitating convection, and separate—and still crude—explicit moist microphysics. In the future, when increasing the complexity of microphysical computations, such an approach may help to unify dry, moist, and deep precipitating convection inside a single parameterization, as well as facilitate global climate model (GCM) and limited-area model (LAM) parameterizations in sharing the same formulation of explicit microphysics with CSRMs.
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Megann, A., D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha. "GO5.0: The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications." Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 6, no. 4 (November 26, 2013): 5747–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-6-5747-2013.
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Abstract. We describe a new Global Ocean standard configuration (GO5.0) at eddy-permitting resolution, developed jointly between the National Oceanography Centre and the Met Office as part of the Joint Ocean Modelling Programme (JOMP). This programme is a working group of the UK's National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) and part of the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP). The configuration has been developed with the seamless approach to modelling in mind for ocean modelling across timescales and for a range of applications, from short-range ocean forecasting through seasonal forecasting to climate predictions as well as research use. The GO5.0 configuration has been coupled with sea-ice (GSI5.0), atmosphere (GA5.0) and land-surface (GL5.0) configurations to form a standard coupled global model (GC1). The GO5.0 model will become the basis for the ocean model component of the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model, which provides forced short-range forecasting services. The global coupled model (GC1) or future releases of it will be used in coupled short-range ocean forecasting, seasonal forecasting, decadal prediction and for climate prediction as part of the UK Earth System Model. A 30 yr integration of GO5.0, run with CORE2 surface forcing from 1976 to 2005, is described, and the performance of the model in the final ten years of the integration is evaluated against observations and against a comparable integration of an earlier configuration, GO1. An additional set of 10 yr sensitivity studies, carried out to attribute changes in the model performance to individual changes in the model physics, is also analysed. GO5.0 is found to have substantially reduced subsurface drift above the depth of the thermocline relative to GO1, and also shows a significant improvement in the representation of the annual cycle of surface temperature and mixed-layer depth.
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Misumi, Ryohei, Yoshinori Shoji, Kazuo Saito, Hiromu Seko, Naoko Seino, Shin-ichi Suzuki, Yukari Shusse, et al. "Results of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS)." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 10 (October 2019): 2027–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-18-0316.1.
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AbstractThe Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for Extreme Weather Resilient Cities (TOMACS) began as a Japanese domestic research project in 2010 and aimed to elucidate the mechanisms behind local high-impact weather (LHIW) in urban areas, to improve forecasting techniques for LHIW, and to provide high-resolution weather information to end-users (local governments, private companies, and the general public) through social experiments. Since 2013, the project has been expanded as an international Research and Development Project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Through this project, the following results were obtained: 1) observation data for LHIW around Tokyo were recorded using a dense network of X-band radars, a C-band polarimetric radar, a Ku-band fast-scanning radar, coherent Doppler lidars, and the Global Navigation Satellite System; 2) quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms for X-band polarimetric radars have been developed as part of an international collaboration; 3) convection initiation by the interaction of sea breezes and urban impacts on the occurrence of heavy precipitation around Tokyo were elucidated by a dense observation network, high-resolution numerical simulations, and different urban surface models; 4) an “imminent” nowcast system based on the vertically integrated liquid water derived from the X-band polarimetric radar network has been developed; 5) assimilation methods for data from advanced observation instruments such as coherent Doppler lidars and polarimetric radars were developed; and 6) public use of high-resolution radar data were promoted through the social experiments.
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Parson, Edward A. "Climate Engineering in Global Climate Governance: Implications for Participation and Linkage." Transnational Environmental Law 3, no. 1 (October 18, 2013): 89–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2047102513000496.
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AbstractThe prospect of climate engineering (CE) – also known as geoengineering, referring to modification of the global environment to partly offset climate change and impacts from elevated atmospheric greenhouse gases – poses major, disruptive challenges to international policy and governance. If full global cooperation to manage climate change is not initially achievable, adding CE to the agenda has major effects on the challenges and risks associated with alternative configurations of participation – for example, variants of partial cooperation, unilateral action, and exclusion. Although the risks of unilateral CE by small states or non-state actors have been over-stated, some powerful states may be able to pursue CE unilaterally, risking international destabilization and conflict. These risks are not limited to future CE deployment, but may also be triggered by unilateral research and development (R&D), secrecy about intentions and capabilities, or assertion of legal rights of unilateral action. They may be reduced by early cooperative steps, such as international collaboration in R&D and open sharing of information. CE presents novel opportunities for explicit bargaining linkages within a complete climate response. Four CE-mitigation linkage scenarios suggest how CE may enhance mitigation incentives, and not weaken them as commonly assumed. Such synergy appears to be challenging if CE is treated only as a contingent response to a future climate crisis, but may be more achievable if CE is used earlier and at lower intensity, either to reduce peak near-term climate disruption in parallel with a programme of deep emission cuts or to target regional climate processes linked to acute global risks.
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Catsky, J. "Brasseur, G.P., Prinn, R.G., Pszenny, A.A.P. (ed.): Atmospheric Chemistry in a Changing World. An Integration and Synthesis of a Decade of Tropospheric Chemistry Research. The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme." Photosynthetica 41, no. 2 (June 1, 2003): 176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/b:phot.0000011982.92189.67.
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Tory, K. J., M. T. Montgomery, and N. E. Davidson. "Prediction and Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Formation in an NWP System. Part I: The Critical Role of Vortex Enhancement in Deep Convection." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 63, no. 12 (December 2006): 3077–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas3764.1.
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This is the first of a three-part investigation into tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS), an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast model. The primary TC-LAPS vortex enhancement mechanism is presented in Part I, the entire genesis process is illustrated in Part II using a single TC-LAPS simulation, and in Part III a number of simulations are presented exploring the sensitivity and variability of genesis forecasts in TC-LAPS. The primary vortex enhancement mechanism in TC-LAPS is found to be convergence/stretching and vertical advection of absolute vorticity in deep intense updrafts, which result in deep vortex cores of 60–100 km in diameter (the minimum resolvable scale is limited by the 0.15° horizontal grid spacing). On the basis of the results presented, it is hypothesized that updrafts of this scale adequately represent mean vertical motions in real TC genesis convective regions, and perhaps that explicitly resolving the individual convective processes may not be necessary for qualitative TC genesis forecasts. Although observations of sufficient spatial and temporal resolution do not currently exist to support or refute this proposition, relatively large-scale (30 km and greater), lower- to midlevel tropospheric convergent regions have been observed in tropical oceanic environments during the Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX), and the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and regions of extreme convection of the order of 50 km are often (remotely) observed in TC genesis environments. These vortex cores are fundamental for genesis in TC-LAPS. They interact to form larger cores, and provide net heating that drives the system-scale secondary circulation, which enhances vorticity on the system scale akin to the classical Eliassen problem of a balanced vortex driven by heat sources. These secondary vortex enhancement mechanisms are documented in Part II. In some recent TC genesis theories featured in the literature, vortex enhancement in deep convective regions of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has largely been ignored. Instead, they focus on the stratiform regions. While it is recognized that vortex enhancement through midlevel convergence into the stratiform precipitation deck can greatly enhance midtropospheric cyclonic vorticity, it is suggested here that this mechanism only increases the potential for genesis, whereas vortex enhancement through low- to midlevel convergence into deep convective regions is necessary for genesis.
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Megann, A., D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha. "GO5.0: the joint NERC–Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications." Geoscientific Model Development 7, no. 3 (June 6, 2014): 1069–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
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Abstract. We describe a new Global Ocean standard configuration (GO5.0) at eddy-permitting resolution, developed jointly between the National Oceanography Centre and the Met Office as part of the Joint Ocean Modelling Programme (JOMP), a working group of the UK's National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) and part of the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme (JWCRP). The configuration has been developed with the seamless approach to modelling in mind for ocean modelling across timescales and for a range of applications, from short-range ocean forecasting through seasonal forecasting to climate predictions as well as research use. The configuration has been coupled with sea ice (GSI5.0), atmosphere (GA5.0), and land-surface (GL5.0) configurations to form a standard coupled global model (GC1). The GO5.0 model will become the basis for the ocean model component of the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model, which provides forced short-range forecasting services. The GC1 or future releases of it will be used in coupled short-range ocean forecasting, seasonal forecasting, decadal prediction and for climate prediction as part of the UK Earth System Model. A 30-year integration of GO5.0, run with CORE2 (Common Ocean-ice Reference Experiments) surface forcing from 1976 to 2005, is described, and the performance of the model in the final 10 years of the integration is evaluated against observations and against a comparable integration of an existing standard configuration, GO1. An additional set of 10-year sensitivity studies, carried out to attribute changes in the model performance to individual changes in the model physics, is also analysed. GO5.0 is found to have substantially reduced subsurface drift above the depth of the thermocline relative to GO1, and also shows a significant improvement in the representation of the annual cycle of surface temperature and mixed layer depth.
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Pegion, Philip J., and Arun Kumar. "Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Response to Modes of SST Variability and Implications for Droughts." Journal of Climate 23, no. 16 (August 15, 2010): 4327–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3295.1.
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Abstract A set of idealized global model experiments was performed by several modeling centers as part of the Drought Working Group of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability component of the World Climate Research Programme (CLIVAR). The purpose of the experiments was to assess the role of the leading modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the climate over the continents, with particular emphasis on the influence of SSTs on surface climate variability and droughts over the United States. An analysis based on several models gives more creditability to the results since it relies on the assessment of impacts that are robust across different models. Coordinated atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with three modes of SST variability were analyzed. The results show that the SST-forced precipitation variability over the central United States is dominated by the SST mode with maximum loading in the central Pacific Ocean. The SST mode with loading in the Atlantic Ocean, and a mode that is dominated by trends in SSTs, lead to a smaller response. Based on the response to the idealized SSTs, the precipitation response for the twentieth century was also reconstructed. A comparison with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations forced with the observed SSTs illustrates that the reconstructed precipitation variability was similar to the one in the AMIP simulations, further supporting the conclusion that the SST modes identified in the present analysis play a dominant role in the precipitation variability over the United States. One notable exception is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, and further analysis regarding this major climate extreme is discussed.
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Wiatr, T., G. Suresh, R. Gehrke, and M. Hovenbitzer. "COPERNICUS – PRACTICE OF DAILY LIFE IN A NATIONAL MAPPING AGENCY?" ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B1 (June 6, 2016): 1195–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xli-b1-1195-2016.
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Copernicus is an European system created for Earth observation and monitoring. It consists of a set of Earth observation satellites and in-situ sensors that provide geo-information that are used, through a set of Copernicus services, for applications related to the environment and global security. The main services of the Copernicus programme address six thematic areas: land, marine, atmosphere, climate change, emergency management and security. In Germany, there is a national service team of Copernicus service coordinators, who are responsible for the national development of the Copernicus services and for providing user-specific information about the Copernicus processes. These coordinators represent the contact points for all the programmes and services concerning their respective Copernicus theme. To publish information about Copernicus, national conferences and workshops are organised. Many people are involved in planning the continuous process of bringing the information to public authorities, research institutes and commercial companies. The Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie, BKG) is one such organisation, and is mainly responsible for the national land monitoring service of Copernicus. To make use of the freely available data from the Copernicus programme, the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is currently developing new applications and projects in the field of remote sensing and land monitoring. These projects can be used by other public authorities as examples on how to use the Copernicus data and services for their individual demands and requirements. Copernicus data and services are currently not very commonly used in the daily routine of the national mapping agencies, but they will soon be.
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Wiatr, T., G. Suresh, R. Gehrke, and M. Hovenbitzer. "COPERNICUS – PRACTICE OF DAILY LIFE IN A NATIONAL MAPPING AGENCY?" ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B1 (June 6, 2016): 1195–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b1-1195-2016.
Full textAbstract:
Copernicus is an European system created for Earth observation and monitoring. It consists of a set of Earth observation satellites and in-situ sensors that provide geo-information that are used, through a set of Copernicus services, for applications related to the environment and global security. The main services of the Copernicus programme address six thematic areas: land, marine, atmosphere, climate change, emergency management and security. In Germany, there is a national service team of Copernicus service coordinators, who are responsible for the national development of the Copernicus services and for providing user-specific information about the Copernicus processes. These coordinators represent the contact points for all the programmes and services concerning their respective Copernicus theme. To publish information about Copernicus, national conferences and workshops are organised. Many people are involved in planning the continuous process of bringing the information to public authorities, research institutes and commercial companies. The Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie, BKG) is one such organisation, and is mainly responsible for the national land monitoring service of Copernicus. To make use of the freely available data from the Copernicus programme, the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy is currently developing new applications and projects in the field of remote sensing and land monitoring. These projects can be used by other public authorities as examples on how to use the Copernicus data and services for their individual demands and requirements. Copernicus data and services are currently not very commonly used in the daily routine of the national mapping agencies, but they will soon be.
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Hassler, B., I. Petropavlovskikh, J. Staehelin, T. August, P. K. Bhartia, C. Clerbaux, D. Degenstein, et al. "Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 1: Measurement techniques, uncertainties and availability." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 7, no. 5 (May 21, 2014): 1395–427. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1395-2014.
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Abstract. Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information for each data set is also given.
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Hassler, B., I. Petropavlovskikh, J. Staehelin, T. August, P. K. Bhartia, C. Clerbaux, D. Degenstein, et al. "SI<sup>2</sup>N overview paper: ozone profile measurements: techniques, uncertainties and availability." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions 6, no. 6 (November 14, 2013): 9857–938. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amtd-6-9857-2013.
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Abstract. Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground- and satellite-based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information is for each data set is also given.
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Power, Scott B., François Delage, Robert Colman, and Aurel Moise. "Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought." Journal of Climate 25, no. 11 (June 2012): 3792–809. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00354.1.
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Under global warming, increases in precipitation are expected at high latitudes and near major tropical convergence zones in some seasons, while decreases are expected in many subtropical and midlatitude areas in between. In many other areas there is no consensus among models on the sign of the projected change. This is often assumed to indicate that precipitation projections in these regions are highly uncertain. Here, twenty-first century precipitation projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using 24 World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models are examined. In areas with no consensus on the sign of projected change there are extensive subregions where the projected change is “very likely” (i.e., probability > 0.90) to be small (relative to, e.g., the size of interannual variability during the late twentieth century) or zero. The statistical significance of and interrelationships between methods used to identify model consensus on projected change in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report are examined, and the impact of interdependency among model projections on statistical significance is investigated. Interdependency among projections is shown to be much weaker than interdependency among simulations of climatology. The results show that there is more widespread consistency among the model projections than one might infer from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment report. This discovery highlights the broader need to identify regions, variables, and phenomena that are expected to be little affected by anthropogenic climate change and to communicate this information to the wider community. This is especially important for projections of climate for the next 1–3 decades.
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Dinoi, Adelaide, Marianna Conte, Fabio M. Grasso, and Daniele Contini. "Long-Term Characterization of Submicron Atmospheric Particles in an Urban Background Site in Southern Italy." Atmosphere 11, no. 4 (March 30, 2020): 334. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040334.
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Continuous measurements of particle number size distributions in the size range from 10 nm to 800 nm were performed from 2015 to 2019 at the ECO Environmental-Climate Observatory of Lecce (Global Atmosphere Watch Programme/Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure (GAW/ACTRIS) regional station). The main objectives of this work were to investigate the daily, weekly and seasonal trends of particle number concentrations and their dependence on meteorological parameters gathering information on potential sources. The highest total number concentrations were observed during autumn-winter with average values nearly twice as high as in summer. More than 52% of total particle number concentration consisted of Aitken mode (20 nm < particle diameter (Dp) < 100 nm) particles followed by accumulation (100 nm < Dp < 800 nm) and nucleation (10 nm < Dp < 20 nm) modes representing, respectively, 27% and 21% of particles. The total number concentration was usually significantly higher during workdays than during weekends/holidays in all years, showing a trend likely correlated with local traffic activities. The number concentration of each particle mode showed a characteristic daily variation that was different in cold and warm seasons. The highest concentrations of the Aitken and accumulation particle mode were observed in the morning and the late evening, during typical rush hour traffic times, highlighting that the two-particle size ranges are related, although there was significant variation in the number concentrations. The peak in the number concentrations of the nucleation mode observed in the midday of spring and summer can be attributed to the intensive formation of new particles from gaseous precursors. Based on Pearson coefficients between particle number concentrations and meteorological parameters, temperature, and wind speed had significant negative relationships with the Aitken and accumulation particle number concentrations, whereas relative humidity was positively correlated. No significant correlations were found for the nucleation particle number concentrations.
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Arias, Andrés H., María V. Panebianco, Sopheak Net, David Dumoulin, Sami Souissi, Baghdad Ouddane, Humberto L. Cappozzo, and Jorge E. Marcovecchio. "Franciscana dolphins as PCBs marine biomonitors in Argentina, south-west Atlantic Ocean." Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 96, no. 4 (June 22, 2015): 979–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0025315415000776.
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Including a multi-year collection of samples (2004–2011) the present research fills 20 years of an information gap regarding the PCB burden in south-west Atlantic franciscana dolphins (Pontoporia blainvillei) while aiming to test the null hypothesis that PCBs congeners are increasingly bioaccumulating in south-west Atlantic specimens in relation to northern hemisphere records. In addition, the present survey analyses indicators of potential biological impairment associated to PCBs tissue burden. The results could associate each sampling area group of dolphins to one or two Aroclor® patterns and point to dominant regional diffuse sources entering PCBs mixtures to the marine environment with a possible regional/long-range atmospheric contribution. In addition, total PCB levels were from four to seven times lower than the closer precedents for the area (18–26 years ago) indicating a progress in the environmental release and biota exposure of PCBs and posing an objective indicator of success of the present international elimination programme. Further, when compared with regional and global bioaccumulation patterns, PCBs congeners in Argentinean specimens appeared to occur in a decreasing tendency. Finally, calculated TEQs TCDD levels raised a concern in regards to environmental safety, showing guideline values to be widely exceeded and the occasional occurrence of positive correlations between PCBs bioaccumulation vs. sexual immaturity.
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Hoerger, C. C., A. Claude, C. Plass-Duelmer, S. Reimann, E. Eckart, R. Steinbrecher, J. Aalto, et al. "ACTRIS non-methane hydrocarbon intercomparison experiment in Europe to support WMO GAW and EMEP observation networks." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 8, no. 7 (July 8, 2015): 2715–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-2715-2015.
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Abstract. The performance of 18 European institutions involved in long-term non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) measurements in ambient air within the framework of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) was assessed with respect to data quality objectives (DQOs) of ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network) and GAW. Compared to previous intercomparison studies the DQOs define a novel approach to assess and ensure a high quality of the measurements. Having already been adopted by GAW, the ACTRIS DQOs are demanding with deviations to a reference value of less than 5 % and a repeatability of better than 2 % for NMHC mole fractions above 0.1 nmol mol−1. The participants of the intercomparison analysed two dry gas mixtures in pressurised cylinders, a 30-component NMHC mixture in nitrogen (NMHC_N2) at approximately 1 nmol mol−1 and a whole air sample (NMHC_air), following a standardised operation procedure including zero- and calibration gas measurements. Furthermore, participants had to report details on their instruments and assess their measurement uncertainties. The NMHCs were analysed either by gas chromatography–flame ionisation detection (GC-FID) or by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). For the NMHC_N2 measurements, 62 % of the reported values were within the 5 % deviation class corresponding to the ACTRIS DQOs. For NMHC_air, generally more frequent and larger deviations to the assigned values were observed, with 50 % of the reported values within the 5 % deviation class. Important contributors to the poorer performance in NMHC_air compared to NMHC_N2 were a more complex matrix and a larger span of NMHC mole fractions (0.03–2.5 nmol mol−1). The performance of the participating laboratories were affected by the different measurement procedures such as the usage of a two-step vs. a one-step calibration, breakthroughs of C2–C3 hydrocarbons in the focussing trap, blank values in zero-gas measurements (especially for those systems using a Nafion® Dryer), adsorptive losses of aromatic compounds, and insufficient chromatographic separation.
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Hoerger, C. C., A. Werner, C. Plass-Duelmer, S. Reimann, E. Eckart, R. Steinbrecher, J. Aalto, et al. "ACTRIS non-methane hydrocarbon intercomparison experiment in Europe to support WMO-GAW and EMEP observation networks." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions 7, no. 10 (October 13, 2014): 10423–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amtd-7-10423-2014.
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Abstract. The performance of 20 European laboratories involved in long-term non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) measurements within the framework of Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) and European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) was assessed with respect to the ACTRIS (Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure Network) and GAW data quality objectives (DQOs). Compared to previous intercomparisons the DQOs of ACTRIS are much more demanding with deviations to a reference value of less than 5% and repeatability of better than 2% for mole fractions above 0.1 nmol mol−1. The participants were asked to measure both a 30 component NMHC mixture in nitrogen (NMHC_N2) at approximately 1 nmol mol−1 and whole air (NMHC_air), following a standardised operation procedure including zero- and calibration gas measurements. Furthermore, they had to report details on their instruments and they were asked to assess measurement uncertainties. The NMHCs were analysed either by gas chromatography-flame ionisation detection or gas chromatography-mass spectrometer methods. Most systems performed well for the NMHC_N2 measurements (88% of the reported values were within the GAW DQOs and even 58% within the ACTRIS DQOs). For NMHC_air generally more frequent and larger deviations to the assigned values were observed compared to NMHC_N2 (77% of the reported values were within the GAW DQOs, but only 48% within the ACTRIS DQOs). Important contributors to the poorer performance in NMHC_air compared to NMHC_N2 were a more complex matrix and a larger span of NMHC mole fractions (0.03–2.5 nmol mol−1). Issues, which affected both NMHC mixtures, are the usage of direct vs. two-step calibration, breakthrough of C2–C3 hydrocarbons, blank values in zero-gas measurements (especially for those systems using a Nafion® Dryer), adsorptive losses of aromatic compounds, and insufficient chromatographic resolution. Essential for high-quality results are experienced operators, a comprehensive quality assurance and quality control, well characterised systems, and sufficient man-power to operate the systems and evaluate the data.
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Velders, G. J. M., and J. S. Daniel. "Uncertainty analysis of projections of ozone-depleting substances: mixing ratios, EESC, ODPs, and GWPs." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14, no. 6 (March 17, 2014): 2757–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-2757-2014.
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Abstract. The rates at which ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are removed from the atmosphere, which determine the lifetimes of these ODSs, are key factors for determining the rate of ozone layer recovery in the coming decades. We present here a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of future mixing ratios of ODSs, levels of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), ozone depletion potentials, and global warming potentials (GWPs), using, among other information, the 2013 WCRP/SPARC (World Climate Research Programme/Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) assessment of lifetimes of ODSs and their uncertainties. The year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels, a metric commonly used to indicate a level of recovery from ODS-induced ozone depletion, is 2048 for midlatitudes and 2075 for Antarctic conditions based on the lifetimes from the SPARC assessment, which is about 2 and 4 yr, respectively, later than based on the lifetimes from the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) assessment of 2011. However, the uncertainty in this return to 1980 levels is much larger than the shift due to this change in lifetimes. The year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels ranges from 2039 to 2064 (95% confidence interval) for midlatitudes and from 2061 to 2105 for the Antarctic spring. The primary contribution to these ranges comes from the uncertainty in the lifetimes, with smaller contributions from uncertainties in other modeled parameters. The earlier years of the return estimates derived by the uncertainty analysis, i.e., 2039 for midlatitudes and 2061 for Antarctic spring, are comparable to a hypothetical scenario in which emissions of ODSs cease in 2014. The later end of the range, i.e., 2064 for midlatitudes and 2105 for Antarctic spring, can also be obtained by a scenario with an additional emission of about 7 Mt CFC-11 eq. (eq. – equivalent) in 2015, which is the same as about 2 times the projected cumulative anthropogenic emissions of all ODSs from 2014 to 2050, or about 12 times the projected cumulative HCFC emissions from 2014 to 2050.
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Michailidis, Konstantinos, Maria-Elissavet Koukouli, Nikolaos Siomos, Dimitris Balis, Olaf Tuinder, L. Gijsbert Tilstra, Lucia Mona, Gelsomina Pappalardo, and Daniele Bortoli. "First validation of GOME-2/MetOp absorbing aerosol height using EARLINET lidar observations." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 4 (March 3, 2021): 3193–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3193-2021.
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Abstract. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) instruments, aboard the Meteorological Operational (MetOp)-A, MetOp-B and MetOp-C satellite programme platforms, to deliver accurate geometrical features of lofted aerosol layers. For this purpose, we use archived ground-based lidar data from stations available from the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) database. The data are post-processed using the wavelet covariance transform (WCT) method in order to extract geometrical features such as the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and the cloud boundaries. To obtain a significant number of collocated and coincident GOME-2 – EARLINET cases for the period between January 2007 and September 2019, 13 lidar stations, distributed over different European latitudes, contributed to this validation. For the 172 carefully screened collocations, the mean bias was found to be −0.18 ± 1.68 km, with a near-Gaussian distribution. On a station basis, and with a couple of exceptions where very few collocations were found, their mean biases fall in the ± 1 km range with an associated standard deviation between 0.5 and 1.5 km. Considering the differences, mainly due to the temporal collocation and the difference, between the satellite pixel size and the point view of the ground-based observations, these results can be quite promising and demonstrate that stable and extended aerosol layers as captured by the satellite sensors are verified by the ground-based data. We further present an in-depth analysis of a strong and long-lasting Saharan dust intrusion over the Iberian Peninsula. We show that, for this well-developed and spatially well-spread aerosol layer, most GOME-2 retrievals fall within 1 km of the exact temporally collocated lidar observation for the entire range of 0 to 150 km radii. This finding further testifies for the capabilities of the MetOp-borne instruments to sense the atmospheric aerosol layer heights.
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Froude, Lizzie S. R. "TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems." Weather and Forecasting 25, no. 3 (June 1, 2010): 819–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222326.1.
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Abstract The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.
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Janssens-Maenhout, G., M. Crippa, D. Guizzardi, F. Dentener, M. Muntean, G. Pouliot, T. Keating, et al. "HTAP_v2: a mosaic of regional and global emission gridmaps for 2008 and 2010 to study hemispheric transport of air pollution." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15, no. 8 (April 29, 2015): 12867–909. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-15-12867-2015.
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Abstract. The mandate of the Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) is to improve the scientific understanding of the intercontinental air pollution transport, to quantify impacts on human health, vegetation and climate, to identify emission mitigation options across the regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and to guide future policies on these aspects. The harmonization and improvement of regional emission inventories is imperative to obtain consolidated estimates on the formation of global-scale air pollution. An emissions dataset has been constructed using regional emission gridmaps (annual and monthly) for SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC for the years 2008 and 2010, with the purpose of providing consistent information to global and regional scale modelling efforts. This compilation of different regional gridded inventories, including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s for USA, EPA and Environment Canada's for Canada, the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)'s for Europe, and the Model Inter-comparison Study in Asia (MICS-Asia)'s for China, India and other Asian countries, was gap-filled with the emission gridmaps of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.3) for the rest of the world (mainly South-America, Africa, Russia and Oceania). Emissions from seven main categories of human activities (power, industry, residential, agriculture, ground transport, aviation and shipping) were estimated and spatially distributed on a common grid of 0.1° × 0.1° longitude–latitude, to yield monthly, global, sector-specific gridmaps for each substance and year. The HTAP_v2.2 air pollutant gridmaps are considered to combine latest available regional information within a complete global dataset. The disaggregation by sectors, high spatial and temporal resolution and detailed information on the data sources and references used will provide the user the required transparency. Because HTAP_v2.2 contains primarily official and/or widely used regional emission gridmaps, it can be recommended as a global baseline emission inventory, which is regionally accepted as a reference and from which different scenarios assessing emission reduction policies at a global scale could start. An analysis of country-specific implied emission factors shows a large difference between industrialised countries and developing countries for all air pollutant emissions from the energy and industry sectors, but not from the residential one. A comparison of the population weighted emissions for all world countries, grouped into four classes of similar income, reveals that the per capita emissions are, with increasing income group of countries, increasing in level but also in variation for all air pollutants but not for aerosols.
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Termeer, Catrien, Arwin van Buuren, Joerg Knieling, and Manuel Gottschick. "Reconciling collaborative action research with existing institutions: insights from Dutch and German climate knowledge programmes." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 1 (December 22, 2014): 89–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.084.
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Researchers and policymakers increasingly aim to set up collaborative research programmes to address the challenges of adaptation to climate change. This does not only apply for technical knowledge, but for governance knowledge also. Both the Netherlands and Germany have set up large-scale collaborative action research (CAR) programmes for the governance of adaptation to climate change. Despite the collaborative designs, the initial enthusiasm, the available resources and the many positive outcomes, both programmes encountered several stubborn difficulties. By comparing both programmes, this paper explores the difficulties researchers encounter, analyses the underlying mechanisms and presents some lessons. It found that many difficulties are related to the tensions that exist between the assumptions underlying the new collaborative trajectories and the logics of the existing policy and research institutions. These institutional misfits are decisive to explain ultimate difficulties and successes. Furthermore, the paper concludes that risk aversion, stereotyping and scale fixation strengthen institutional misfits; and that these misfits persist due to lacking bridging capabilities. We suggest some lessons that can help to resolve the difficulties and reconcile CAR into existing institutions: organize the knowledge arrangement as a collaborative process; construct boundary objects as focal point for collaboration; and invest in bridging capabilities.
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Michou, M., and V. H. Peuch. "Échanges en surface dans le modèle de chimie transport multi-échelles MOCAGE." Revue des sciences de l'eau 15 (April 12, 2005): 173–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/705492ar.
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Les échanges en surface dans le Modèle de Chimie Transport (MCT) multi-échelles MOCAGE de Météo-France comprennent à la fois les flux d'émissions et de dépôt sec d'espèces gazeuses. Une interface 2D a été développée entre MOCAGE et le modèle de prévisions météorologiques opérationnel français ARPEGE dans le but de calculer des flux à la surface réalistes Pour les émissions, un inventaire global est employé pour le moment; cet inventaire a été construit essentiellement à partir des inventaires des programmes IGAC/GEIA (International Global Atmospheric Chemistry / Global Emission Inventory Activity) et EDGAR (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research qui ont des résolutions temporelles annuelles, sai-sonnières ou mensuelles et une résolution spatiale de un degré. Le dépôt sec d'espèces gazeuses, y compris l'ozone, le dioxyde de soufre, les composés azotés, les composés organiques à longue et à courte durée de vie, a été paramétrisé selon [Wesely, 1989]. Le modèle calcule la vitesse de dépôt à partir de valeurs de trois résistances en série, les résistances aérodynamique, laminaire et de la surface. Ces résistances sont calculées en utilisant les champs de surface d'ARPEGE. Les champs liés à la végétation, tels l'indice foliaire, sont prescrits avec une résolution de un degré sur le globe et de cinq minutes sur l'Europe. Un certain nombre de modifications a été apporté à la paramétrisation de [Wesely, 1989], par exemple pour la formulation de la résistance stomatale et celle de la résistance de surface sur les surfaces mouillées. Les valeurs calculées de vitesse de dépôt ont été comparées à des observations et leurs distributions spatiales et temporelles ont été analysées sur deux saisons opposées (hiver et été, sur les différents domaines de MOCAGE, de résolution allant de 2 degrés pour le globe à 0.25 degrés pour la France.
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Mehta, Vikram M., Cody L. Knutson, Norman J. Rosenberg, J. Rolf Olsen, Nicole A. Wall, Tonya K. Bernadt, and Michael J. Hayes. "Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin." Weather, Climate, and Society 5, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 27–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-11-00063.1.
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Abstract Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 stakeholders. Stakeholders’ awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders’ DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural production in the basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost barrier is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper.
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Koukouli, Maria Elissavet, Nicolas Theys, Jieying Ding, Irene Zyrichidou, Bas Mijling, Dimitrios Balis, and Ronald Johannes van der A. "Updated SO<sub>2</sub> emission estimates over China using OMI/Aura observations." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 11, no. 3 (March 29, 2018): 1817–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1817-2018.
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Abstract. The main aim of this paper is to update existing sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission inventories over China using modern inversion techniques, state-of-the-art chemistry transport modelling (CTM) and satellite observations of SO2. Within the framework of the EU Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) MarcoPolo (Monitoring and Assessment of Regional air quality in China using space Observations) project, a new SO2 emission inventory over China was calculated using the CHIMERE v2013b CTM simulations, 10 years of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)/Aura total SO2 columns and the pre-existing Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC v1.2). It is shown that including satellite observations in the calculations increases the current bottom-up MEIC inventory emissions for the entire domain studied (15–55° N, 102–132° E) from 26.30 to 32.60 Tg annum−1, with positive updates which are stronger in winter ( ∼ 36 % increase). New source areas were identified in the southwest (25–35° N, 100–110° E) as well as in the northeast (40–50° N, 120–130° E) of the domain studied as high SO2 levels were observed by OMI, resulting in increased emissions in the a posteriori inventory that do not appear in the original MEIC v1.2 dataset. Comparisons with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, EDGAR v4.3.1, show a satisfying agreement since the EDGAR 2010 bottom-up database provides 33.30 Tg annum−1 of SO2 emissions. When studying the entire OMI/Aura time period (2005 to 2015), it was shown that the SO2 emissions remain nearly constant before the year 2010, with a drift of −0.51 ± 0.38 Tg annum−1, and show a statistically significant decline after the year 2010 of −1.64 ± 0.37 Tg annum−1 for the entire domain. Similar findings were obtained when focusing on the greater Beijing area (30–40° N, 110–120° E) with pre-2010 drifts of −0.17 ± 0.14 and post-2010 drifts of −0.47 ± 0.12 Tg annum−1. The new SO2 emission inventory is publicly available and forms part of the official EU MarcoPolo emission inventory over China, which also includes updated NOx, volatile organic compounds and particulate matter emissions.
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García, Rosa Delia, Emilio Cuevas, Ramón Ramos, Victoria Eugenia Cachorro, Alberto Redondas, and José A. Moreno-Ruiz. "Description of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) station at the Izaña Observatory (2009–2017): measurements and quality control/assurance procedures." Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems 8, no. 1 (February 13, 2019): 77–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gi-8-77-2019.
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Abstract. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) was implemented by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) starting observations with nine stations in 1992, under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Currently, 59 BSRN stations submit their data to the WCRP. One of these stations is the Izaña station (station IZA, no. 61) that enrolled in this network in 2009. This is a high-mountain station located in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain, at 28.3∘ N, 16.5∘ W; 2373 m a.s.l.) and is a representative site of the subtropical North Atlantic free troposphere. It contributes with basic-BSRN radiation measurements, such as global shortwave radiation (SWD), direct radiation (DIR), diffuse radiation (DIF) and longwave downward radiation (LWD), and extended-BSRN measurements, including ultraviolet ranges (UV-A and UV-B), shortwave upward radiation (SWU) and longwave upward radiation (LWU), and other ancillary measurements, such as vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and wind obtained from radiosonde profiles (WMO station no. 60018) and total column ozone from the Brewer spectrophotometer. The IZA measurements present high-quality standards since more than 98 % of the data are within the limits recommended by the BSRN. There is an excellent agreement in the comparison between SWD, DIR and DIF (instantaneous and daily) measurements with simulations obtained with the LibRadtran radiative transfer model. The root mean square error (RMSE) for SWD is 2.28 % for instantaneous values and 1.58 % for daily values, while the RMSE for DIR is 2.00 % for instantaneous values and 2.07 % for daily values. IZA is a unique station that provides very accurate solar radiation data in very contrasting scenarios: most of the time under pristine sky conditions and periodically under the effects of the Saharan air layer characterized by a high content of mineral dust. A detailed description of the BSRN program at IZA, including quality control and quality assurance activities, is given in this work.
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Milford, C., C. Marrero, C. Martin, J. J. Bustos, and X. Querol. "Forecasting the air pollution episode potential in the Canary Islands." Advances in Science and Research 2, no. 1 (April 9, 2008): 21–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-2-21-2008.
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Abstract. In the frame of the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Urban Research Meteorology and Environment programme (GURME), a system for forecasting air pollution episode potential in the Canary Islands has been developed. Meteorological parameters relevant to air quality (synoptic wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height and temperature at 91 vertical levels) are obtained from the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) once a day for up to four days ahead. In addition, a model based on the analogue method utilising six years of historical meteorological and air quality data predicts the probability of SO2 concentration exceeding certain thresholds for a measurement station located in Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Meteorological forecasts are also provided from a high resolution (2 km) local area model (MM5) implemented for the Canary Islands domain. This simple system is able to forecast meteorological conditions which are favourable to the occurrence of pollution episodes for the forthcoming days.
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Schnadt Poberaj, C., J. Staehelin, D. Brunner, V. Thouret, and V. Mohnen. "A UT/LS ozone climatology of the nineteen seventies deduced from the GASP aircraft measurement program." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7, no. 22 (November 29, 2007): 5917–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5917-2007.
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Abstract. We present ozone measurements of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) performed from four commercial and one research aircraft in the late 1970s. The GASP quality assurance and control program was reviewed, and an ozone climatology of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) of the years 1975–1979 was built. The data set was estimated to have an overall uncertainty of 9% or 3 ppb whichever is greater for the first two years and 4% or 3 ppb for the remaining years, i.e. after implementation of silicone rubber membranes in the pumps. Two cases of nearly coincident flights of two GASP airliners along the same flight route, and the comparison with independent observations from the literature, including ozonesondes and aircraft campaigns, indicate that the ozone measurements are of high quality. The UT/LS climatology of the GASP data set is in general agreement with that derived from MOZAIC in the 1990s in regions covered by both programmes. GASP provides unique large-scale climatological information on UT/LS ozone above the northern hemisphere Pacific region, which is not covered by MOZAIC. There, the GASP climatology confirms several characteristic features derived from individual research aircraft campaigns and from ozone soundings. In particular, summertime ozone in the UT over the midlatitude eastern Pacific Ocean was significantly lower in the 1970s than over the American continent. The generally lower ozone concentrations in the tropics near the dateline as compared to farther east are indicative of convective uplifting of ozone poor air from the marine boundary layer.