Journal articles: 'Global catastrophic risks'

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Avin, Shahar, Bonnie C. Wintle, Julius Weitzdörfer, Seán S. Ó hÉigeartaigh, William J. Sutherland, and Martin J. Rees. "Classifying global catastrophic risks." Futures 102 (September 2018): 20–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001.

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Yassif, Jaime. "Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 329–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0049.

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Chichilnisky, Graciela, and Peter Eisenberger. "Asteroids: Assessing Catastrophic Risks." Journal of Probability and Statistics 2010 (2010): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/954750.

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We evaluate two risk profiles: (i) global warming risks and (ii) collisions with asteroids that can cause the extinction of our species. The expected values computed for these two risks suggest that no action will be taken to avoid extinction. The result is somewhat counterintuitive, but it is typical of the results of using classic decision theory to evaluate catastrophic risks in the distant future, see the study by Posner (2004). We establish why expected value is insensitive to catastrophic risks see the study by Chichilnisky (1996), and use another criterion to evaluate risk based on axioms for choice under uncertainty that update the classic Von Neumann theory and require equal treatment for rare and frequent events. Optimizing according to the new criterion is shown to be equivalent to optimizing expected utility with a restriction on the worst outcome in the case of a catastrophe. The evaluation obtained from the new criterion seems more intuitively plausible, and suggests a more practical and realistic approach to catastrophic risks: optimizing expected value while minimizing losses in the case of a catastrophe.

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Palmer, Megan J., Bruce C. Tiu, Amy S. Weissenbach, and David A. Relman. "On Defining Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 347–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0057.

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Nathan, Christopher, and Keith Hyams. "Global policymakers and catastrophic risk." Policy Sciences 55, no. 1 (December 2, 2021): 3–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09444-0.

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AbstractThere is a rapidly developing literature on risks that threaten the whole of humanity, or a large part of it. Discussion is increasingly turning to how such risks can be governed. This paper arises from a study of those involved the governance of risks from emerging technologies, examining the perceptions of global catastrophic risk within the relevant global policymaking community. Those who took part were either civil servants working for the UK government, U.S. Congress, the United Nations, and the European Commission, or cognate members of civil society groups and the private sector. Analysis of interviews identified four major themes: Scepticism; Realism; Influence; and Governance outside of Government. These themes provide evidence for the value of conceptualising the governance of global catastrophic risk as a unified challenge. Furthermore, they highlight the range of agents involved in governance of emerging technology and give reason to value reforms carried out sub-nationally.

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Cameron, Elizabeth E. "Emerging and Converging Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 337–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0043.

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Connell, Nancy D. "The Challenge of Global Catastrophic Biological Risks." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 345–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0056.

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Turchin, Alexey, and David Denkenberger. "Global catastrophic and existential risks communication scale." Futures 102 (September 2018): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.01.003.

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Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes." foresight 21, no. 1 (March 11, 2019): 100–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2018-0031.

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Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.

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Schoch-Spana, Monica, Anita Cicero, Amesh Adalja, Gigi Gronvall, Tara Kirk Sell, Diane Meyer, Jennifer B. Nuzzo, et al. "Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition." Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 323–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0038.

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George, Dylan. "How Should We Define Global Catastrophic Biological Risks?" Health Security 15, no. 4 (August 2017): 339–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/hs.2017.0046.

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Faber, M. H. "On the governance of global and catastrophic risks." International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management 15, no. 5/6 (2011): 400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijram.2011.043698.

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Turchin, Alexey, and David Denkenberger. "Classification of global catastrophic risks connected with artificial intelligence." AI & SOCIETY 35, no. 1 (May 3, 2018): 147–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00146-018-0845-5.

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Ma, Zonggang, Chaoqun Ma, and Shisong Xiao. "Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2017 (2017): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/3279647.

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The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT) intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS) loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO), the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT) in extreme value theory (EVT) to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ) plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

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Jebari, Karim. "Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?" Physica Scripta 89, no. 12 (November 27, 2014): 128005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0031-8949/89/12/128005.

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Parson, Edward A. "The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response." Journal of Economic Literature 45, no. 1 (February 1, 2007): 147–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.45.1.147.

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Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford University Press, 2004) examines four risks whose worst cases could end advanced human civilization or worse: asteroid impacts, a catastrophic chain reaction initiated in high-energy particle accelerators, global climate change, and bioterrorism. He argues that these all warrant more thought and response than they are receiving, and that they can usefully be assessed using a simple analytic framework based on cost–benefit analysis. This essay reviews knowledge of these risks and critically examines Posner's claims for a consistent analytic approach. While the conclusions that each risk merits more thought and effort appear persuasive, these rely on ad hoc arguments specific to each risk. The general analytic claims do not hold up well, as Posner develops his proposed framework thinly and applies it unevenly. Applying such a framework consistently to catastrophic risks would require engaging some fundamental problems that Posner does not address. The book's major contributions are to identify and describe these risks, highlight the inadequate attention they are receiving, and advance a persuasive argument for their more serious examination.

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Yan, Dong, Paolo Farah, Ivana Gaskova, and Carlo Giabardo. "Evaluating China’s Environmental Management and Risks Avoidance Policies and Regulations on Offshore Methane Hydrate Extraction." Sustainability 12, no. 13 (July 1, 2020): 5331. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12135331.

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Methane hydrates (hereinafter, MH), for many reasons, are widely recognized as a form of sustainable energy due to their environmentally friendly nature. MH, while burning, produce fresh water, which could in turn offer one possible solution to worldwide shortages of water. MH also maintains the capacity to change the landscape of the global energy supply. According to recent scientific evaluations, the potential global supply of MH is even higher than the total storage of traditional crude oil and conventional natural gas. However, its offshore extraction process could be linked to both catastrophic and non-catastrophic events that may contribute to global warming and climate change, cause harm to human health and life, endanger the flora and fauna, and threaten the very global environment as a whole. Therefore, from a legal viewpoint, an efficient and effective system of civil liability rules seem crucial to control the risks, and to compensate the victims to which damages may occur. This article takes into consideration China’s legal framework in assessing the risks connected to MH offshore extraction. Such a choice for examination is justified by China’s leading position for implementing the technology necessary for extracting MH. This analysis shows that China’s current legal instruments are still far from fully equipped to prevent the risks associated with the offshore extraction of MH, as well as to offer effective remedies for the victims once any damages have occurred. Therefore, more efficient measures and remedies should be considered (or even imposed) to address the specific risks of offshore methane hydrate extraction. Indeed, in the past few decades, China’s environmental protection laws and regulations have mainly focused on the environmental risks that may occur during the process of extracting conventional resources; however, they do not address methane hydrates specifically. This presents a legal challenge for environmental protection laws. The potentially catastrophic events that may occur as a result of the offshore MH extraction processes in particular present a legal challenge for environmental protection laws in China and across the globe. Thus, this article focuses on how to prevent these risks before they even occur, followed by a careful attempt to address compensation efforts for any damages caused by said catastrophes.

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Boyd, Matt, and Nick Wilson. "Anticipatory Governance for Preventing and Mitigating Catastrophic and Existential Risks." Policy Quarterly 17, no. 4 (November 25, 2021): 20–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.26686/pq.v17i4.7313.

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The world faces many large-scale risks. We describe these global catastrophic and existential risks and identify some challenges in governing the prevention and mitigation of such risks. We identify that risk reduction activity in Aotearoa New Zealand has not appropriately addressed these threats. On the basis of the challenges identified, we then deduce the desired features and functions of an entity for effectively governing risk reduction approaches. We argue for an entity that is: anticipatory, central/aggregating, coordinating, apolitical, transparent, adaptive and accountable. We offer structural options for such an entity and outline the merits of several options.

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Kuhlemann, Karin. "Complexity, creeping normalcy and conceit: sexy and unsexy catastrophic risks." foresight 21, no. 1 (March 11, 2019): 35–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-05-2018-0047.

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Purpose This paper aims to consider few cognitive and conceptual obstacles to engagement with global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Design/methodology/approach The paper starts by considering cognitive biases that affect general thinking about GCRs, before questioning whether existential risks really are dramatically more pressing than other GCRs. It then sets out a novel typology of GCRs – sexy vs unsexy risks – before considering a particularly unsexy risk, overpopulation. Findings It is proposed that many risks commonly regarded as existential are “sexy” risks, while certain other GCRs are comparatively “unsexy.” In addition, it is suggested that a combination of complexity, cognitive biases and a hubris-laden failure of imagination leads us to neglect the most unsexy and pervasive of all GCRs: human overpopulation. The paper concludes with a tentative conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking. Originality/value The paper proposes and conceptualises two new concepts, sexy and unsexy catastrophic risks, as well as a new conceptualisation of overpopulation as a pattern of risking.

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Chao, Wen. "Valuing Multirisk Catastrophe Reinsurance Based on the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) Model." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2021 (February 11, 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/8818486.

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Catastrophe risks lead to severe problems of insurance and reinsurance industry. In order to reduce the underwriting risk, the insurer would seek protection by transferring part of its risk exposure to the reinsurer. A framework for valuing multirisk catastrophe reinsurance under stochastic interest rates driven by the CIR model shall be discussed. To evaluate the distribution and the dependence of catastrophe variables, the Peaks over Threshold model and Copula function are used to measure them, respectively. Furthermore, the parameters of the valuing model are estimated and calibrated by using the Global Flood Date provided by Dartmouth College from 2000 to 2016. Finally, the value of catastrophe reinsurance is derived and a sensitivity analysis of how stochastic interest rates and catastrophe dependence affect the values is performed via Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained show that the catastrophe reinsurance value is the inverse relation between initial value of interest rate and average interest rate in the long run. Additionally, a high level of dependence between catastrophe variables increases the catastrophe reinsurance value. The findings of this paper may be interesting to (re)insurance companies and other financial institutions that want to transfer catastrophic risks.

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Bauer, Dana Marie, and Ian Sue Wing. "Economic Consequences of Pollinator Declines: A Synthesis." Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 39, no. 3 (October 2010): 368–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500007371.

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This paper surveys the literature on pollinator declines and related concerns regarding global food security. Methods for valuing the economic risks associated with pollinator declines are also reviewed. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach is introduced to assess the effects of a global catastrophic loss of pollinators. There appears to be evidence supporting a trend towards future pollinator shortages in the United States and other regions of the world. Results from the CGE model show economic risks to both direct crop sectors and indirect noncrop sectors in the economy, with some amount of regional heterogeneity.

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HILORME, Tetiana. "Assessment of environmental risks of space activities as a determinant of global security." Economics. Finances. Law, no. 9/1 (September 30, 2021): 15–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.37634/efp.2021.9(1).4.

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The paper investigates environmental risks of space activities in ensuring the concept of Clean Space as an integral component of global security. It has been proven that man-made debris in orbital space reached catastrophic proportions which calls upon immediate changes with the purpose of sustainable development of space activities. The work incorporates an elaborated classification of environmental risks that occur in the process of space activities, divided into four groups: by the source of risk, by type of orbit, by cause and effect and by the possibility of influence. It has been determined that countries to have generated the most space debris objects are Russia (the USSR), USA and China. Ukrainian national legislation in the sphere of space activities is currently at the stage of harmonization with international space agencies. Numerous issues remain insufficiently substantiated: improvement of the Technical Regulations for space activities, Procedures of liability insurance for damage inflicted to the space object, since the respective insurance contract must be one of the documents mandatory for fulfilling international obligations of the state with regard to its accountability for any type of national space activities. It has been established that apart from the Kessler effect there also exists a temporality effect – the effect of ”lengthened” time combined with the effect of its acceleration (singularity) – accelerated development of situational changes. This affects the catastrophic state of space debris cluttering in Earth’s orbit since the launch of the first artificial satellite. The paper examines a particular range of risks in accordance with two phases of the technological lifespan of space systems – ‘Operation’ & ‘Utilization’. It is stipulated by the fact that namely in these phases there exists the highest probability of occurrence of major risks of “influence”. Prospects of further research consist in the development of the system for assessment of risks of influence at all phases of the technological lifespan of space systems: ‘Mission analysis/needs definition’; ‘Feasibility’; ‘Preliminary design’; ‘Detailed design’; ‘Qualification & Production’; ‘Operation’; ‘Utilization’.

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Vnutskih, Alexander Yur’evich. "GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS IN THE LIGHT OF UNIFIED OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED UNIVERSAL PROCESS CONCEPT. PART 1." Вестник Пермского университета. Философия. Психология. Социология, no. 3 (2017): 328–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.17072/2078-7898/2017-3-328-334.

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Vnutskih, Alexander Yu. "GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS IN THE LIGHT OF UNIFIED OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED UNIVERSAL PROCESS CONCEPT. PART 2." Вестник Пермского университета. Философия. Психология. Социология, no. 4 (2017): 528–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.17072/2078-7898/2017-4-528-536.

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Kambouris, Manousos E., Yiannis Manoussopoulos, Maria Kantzanou, Aristea Velegraki, Georgios Gaitanis, Michalis Arabatzis, and George P. Patrinos. "Rebooting Bioresilience: A Multi-OMICS Approach to Tackle Global Catastrophic Biological Risks and Next-Generation Biothreats." OMICS: A Journal of Integrative Biology 22, no. 1 (January 2018): 35–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/omi.2017.0185.

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Besley, Timothy, and Avinash Dixit. "Environmental catastrophes and mitigation policies in a multiregion world." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 12 (September 25, 2018): 5270–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802864115.

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In this paper we present a simple model for assessing the willingness to pay for reductions in the risk associated with catastrophic climate change. The model is extremely tractable and applies to a multiregion world but with global externalities and has five key features: (i) Neither the occurrence nor the costs of a catastrophic event in any one year are precisely predictable; (ii) the probability of a catastrophe occurring in any one year increases as the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase; (iii) greenhouse gases are a worldwide public bad with emissions from any one country or region increasing the risks for all; (iv) there is two-sided irreversibility; if nothing is done and the problem proves serious, the climate, economic activity, and human life will suffer permanent damage, but if we spend large sums on countermeasures and the problem turns out to be minor or even nonexistent, we will have wasted resources unnecessarily; and (v) technological progress may yield partial or even complete solutions. The framework that we propose can give a sense of the quantitative significance of mitigation strategies. We illustrate these for a core set of parameter values.

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Ovetz, Robert, and Jake Alimahomed-Wilson. "Workers’ Movements and the Global Supply Chain: Introduction." New Global Studies 16, no. 1 (February 28, 2022): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ngs-2022-0007.

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Abstract The global supply chain crisis during the pandemic provides an opportunity to reflect on the vulnerabilities of the just-in-time model of capitalist production. As capital studies and prepares for risks to the global supply chain, so must workers if we are make global systemic changes needed to reverse the many catastrophic crises facing humanity. The articles in this forum re-examine unions and global workers organizing in seven countries to move us past the limited focus on collective bargaining, contracts, labor law, and unions tied to neoliberal political parties to identify and assess strategies for cross-border worker organizing at these choke points to apply pressure, extract gains, and tip the balance of power in their favor.

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Petrović-Tomić, Nataša. "Insurance in the time of corona virus: Catastrophic risks in the light of pandemic." Pravo i privreda 59, no. 3 (2021): 326–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/pip2103326p.

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In the paper is analysed pandemic of COVID-19 from the point of view of insurance market. Author starts from the assumption that insurers are the only companies that could be partners of the state in the process of administration of pandemic risk. Namely, pandemic is a kind of catastrophic and global risk that put on test not only capacities of (re)insurance market but also the readiness of the state to respond to new challenges with synchronized action with the private sector. This primarily refers to the remediation of eco-bomb consequences caused by corona virus. In order to be able to offer affordable insurance of corona risk insurers should receive a subsidy of part of the premiums from the state as well as the subsidy of the part of covered damages. The state should assume proactive role in the process of administrating risk of pandemic and educating all potentially injured persons.

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Janzwood, Scott. "R&D priority-setting for global catastrophic risks: The case of the NASA planetary defense mission." Research Policy 50, no. 6 (July 2021): 104225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104225.

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Tuzyak, Yaryna. "Comparative analysis of global and national systems for observing, monitoring and forecasting natural disasters and hazards with а view to reducing risk." Technology audit and production reserves 6, no. 2(62) (December 7, 2021): 41–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2021.245825.

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The object of research is modern systems for observing, monitoring and forecasting natural disasters and hazards. Although early warning systems are often used to predict the magnitude, location and time of potentially hazardous events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of material damage, human consequences, service disruption or financial losses. Supplementing early warning systems with predictions of impact has the dual advantage of providing better information to governing bodies for informed emergency decisions and focusing the attention of various branches of science on the goal of mitigating or preventing negative effects. The publication analyses current trends in the growth of natural risks, taking into account the risks associated with global climate change. The issues related to the growing risks of natural disasters and catastrophes at the present stage of societal development and directions of activities at the international and national levels for their reduction are considered. Disaster risk prevention and mitigation measures are described and areas of work in this area are highlighted. The decision-making sequence model is given, global and regional systems of observation, analysis, detection, forecasting, preliminary warning and exchange of information on natural hazards related to weather, climate and water are described. The factors that «unbalance» the global economy in terms of intensity, magnitude, magnitude of losses due to catastrophic events are analyzed. Addressing disaster prevention requires a structure at the national level in each country that includes policy, institutional, legal, strategic and operational frameworks, as well as at the regional and societal levels. This structure will organize and implement disaster risk reduction activities and establish an organizational system that will understand disaster risk and ensure that it is reduced through public participation.

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Gilarek, Anna. "Managing Fear in a Risk Society: Pretrauma and Extreme Future Scenarios in Nathaniel Rich’s Odds Against Tomorrow." EXtREme 21 Going Beyond in Post-Millennial North American Literature and Culture, no. 15 (Autumn 2021) (November 20, 2021): 251–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.7311/pjas.15/2/2021.05.

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An example of near-future climate fiction, Nathaniel Rich’s 2013 novel Odds Against Tomorrow envisions a catastrophic, global warming-related flooding of the New York City area. Despite the novel’s (post)apocalyptic focus, a large part of it can be in fact perceived as preapocalyptic, inasmuch as it explores people’s traumatic responses to potential future disasters, even before they actually happen. The aim of the article is to analyze the novel’s depiction of the culture of fear, which has permeated the modern society as a consequence of it becoming what Ulrich Beck famously termed a “risk society.” In a risk society, human industrial and technological activity produces a series of hazards, including global risks such as anthropogenic climate change. In the novel, Rich shows how financial capitalism commodifies these risks by capitalizing on people’s fears and their need for some degree of risk management. Finally, the paper looks at the text as a cli-fi novel and thus as a literary response to the pretrauma caused by environmental risks.

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Butler, Colin. "Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 10 (October 16, 2018): 2266. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266.

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Background: Anthropogenic global warming, interacting with social and other environmental determinants, constitutes a profound health risk. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review for 1989–2013 (inclusive), the first 25 years in which this topic appeared in scientific journals. It explores the extent to which articles have identified potentially catastrophic, civilization-endangering health risks associated with climate change. Methods: PubMed and Google Scholar were primarily used to identify articles which were then ranked on a three-point scale. Each score reflected the extent to which papers discussed global systemic risk. Citations were also analyzed. Results: Of 2143 analyzed papers 1546 (72%) were scored as one. Their citations (165,133) were 82% of the total. The proportion of annual papers scored as three was initially high, as were their citations but declined to almost zero by 1996, before rising slightly from 2006. Conclusions: The enormous expansion of the literature appropriately reflects increased understanding of the importance of climate change to global health. However, recognition of the most severe, existential, health risks from climate change was generally low. Most papers instead focused on infectious diseases, direct heat effects and other disciplinary-bounded phenomena and consequences, even though scientific advances have long called for more inter-disciplinary collaboration.

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Lelieveld, J., D. Kunkel, and M. G. Lawrence. "Global risk of radioactive fallout after nuclear reactor accidents." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, no. 11 (November 25, 2011): 31207–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-31207-2011.

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Abstract. Reactor core meltdowns of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. It appears that previously the occurrence of major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a core melt of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human deposition exposure are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in southern Asia where a core melt can subject 55 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

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Rietveld, Jochem, Tom Hobson, Shahar Avin, Lalitha Sundaram, and Lara Mani. "Lessons from COVID-19 for GCR governance: a research agenda." F1000Research 11 (May 12, 2022): 514. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.111331.1.

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The Lessons from Covid-19 Research Agenda offers a structure to study the COVID-19 pandemic and the pandemic response from a Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) perspective. The agenda sets out the aims of our study, which is to investigate the key decisions and actions (or failures to decide or to act) that significantly altered the course of the pandemic, with the aim of improving disaster preparedness and response in the future. It also asks how we can transfer these lessons to other areas of (potential) global catastrophic risk management such as extreme climate change, radical loss of biodiversity and the governance of extreme risks posed by new technologies. Our study aims to identify key moments- ‘inflection points’- that significantly shaped the catastrophic trajectory of COVID-19. To that end this Research Agenda has identified four broad clusters where such inflection points are likely to exist: pandemic preparedness, early action, vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The aim is to drill down into each of these clusters to ascertain whether and how the course of the pandemic might have gone differently, both at the national and the global level, using counterfactual analysis. Four aspects are used to assess candidate inflection points within each cluster: 1. the information available at the time; 2. the decision-making processes used; 3. the capacity and ability to implement different courses of action, and 4. the communication of information and decisions to different publics. The Research Agenda identifies crucial questions in each cluster for all four aspects that should enable the identification of the key lessons from COVID-19 and the pandemic response.

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Slade, Richard, Robert Tickner, and Phoebe Wynn-Pope. "Protecting humanity from the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons: Reframing the debate towards the humanitarian impact." International Review of the Red Cross 97, no. 899 (September 2015): 731–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1816383116000229.

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AbstractThe international community has been struggling to reach agreement on the non-proliferation and elimination of nuclear weapons since they were first used in 1945. Encouragingly, recent global debate has, for the first time, focused on the devastating humanitarian consequences that the use of nuclear weapons will have not only for nuclear weapons States but for all humanity. The fact that the risks and overwhelming humanitarian consequences of a nuclear event are so high, combined with the inability of the global community to adequately respond to the needs of victims, has compelled policy-makers to consider new ways to work towards the prohibition of the use of nuclear weapons under international law. This article examines how the “humanitarian initiative” has reframed the nuclear weapons debate away from the traditional realm of State security, deterrence and military utility, and towards the grim reality of the humanitarian impacts that would confront humankind if nuclear weapons were ever used again.

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Boyd, Matt, and Nick Wilson. "Failures with COVID‐19 at the international level must not be repeated in an era facing global catastrophic biological risks." Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 45, no. 2 (February 22, 2021): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13082.

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Lelieveld, J., D. Kunkel, and M. G. Lawrence. "Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 9 (May 12, 2012): 4245–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-4245-2012.

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Abstract. Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

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Ermolieva, Tatiana, Petr Havlik, Yuri Ermoliev, Nikolay Khabarov, and Michael Obersteiner. "Robust Management of Systemic Risks and Food-Water-Energy-Environmental Security: Two-Stage Strategic-Adaptive GLOBIOM Model." Sustainability 13, no. 2 (January 16, 2021): 857. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13020857.

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Critical imbalances and threshold exceedances can trigger a disruption in a network of interdependent systems. An insignificant-at-first-glance shock can induce systemic risks with cascading catastrophic impacts. Systemic risks challenge traditional risk assessment and management approaches. These risks are shaped by systemic interactions, risk exposures, and decisions of various agents. The paper discusses the need for the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) approach that enables the design of a robust portfolio of precautionary strategic and operational adaptive decisions that makes the interdependent systems flexible and robust with respect to risks of all kinds. We established a connection between the robust quantile-based non-smooth estimation problem in statistics and the two-stage non-smooth STO problem of robust strategic–adaptive decision-making. The coexistence of complementary strategic and adaptive decisions induces systemic risk aversion in the form of Value-at-Risk (VaR) quantile-based risk constraints. The two-stage robust decision-making is implemented into a large-scale Global Biosphere Management (GLOBIOM) model, showing that robust management of systemic risks can be addressed by solving a system of probabilistic security equations. Selected numerical results emphasize that a robust combination of interdependent strategic and adaptive solutions presents qualitatively new policy recommendations, if compared to a traditional scenario-by-scenario decision-making analysis.

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Will, Markus. "The CoViD-19 Pandemic and the End of Corporate Risk Management as we know it." Central European Review of Economics and Management 4, no. 3 (September 28, 2020): 89–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.29015/cerem.888.

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Aim: The article is intended to contribute to a discussion on risks related to the CoViD-19 pandemic, which was started in the last issues of this journal. Findings: The article discusses the thesis that conventional risk management is reaching its limits in its application in companies, particularly with regard to low-probability but high-impact events its applications seems nor appropriate. In complex and tightly coupled systems like global supply chains, catastrophic events must be considered "normal". The risk of a global pandemic is well known, and at the end of 2019 the first signs of an impending outbreak were also evident. Nevertheless, the global pandemic and the gradual lockdown was surprising in that no precautionary measures were taken. Therefore, this paper argues for a change of perspective from traditional risk management to BCM and for increasing the resilience of supply chains. Keywords: CoViD-19, risk management, black swans, business continuity, supply chain resilience

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Koike, Toshio. "Evolution of Japan's flood control planning and policy in response to climate change risks and social changes." Water Policy 23, S1 (December 1, 2021): 77–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2021.287.

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Abstract Building a sustainable society by strengthening disaster resilience is a common goal in the world. It is crucial to promote cooperation between the general public and the science community by sharing data, information, knowledge, experiences, and ideas. Japan has routinely been beset by catastrophic floods caused mainly by destructive typhoons and critically active seasonal fronts. With the turn of the 21st century, changes in climate and society required additional realignment into the standardized procedures that had evolved over the previous half-century. Japan's new policy, ‘River Basin Disaster Resilience and Sustainability by All,’ takes comprehensive measures, mainly consisting of flood prevention, exposure reduction, and appropriate evacuation, response and recovery, aiming to strengthen disaster resilience and achieve sustainability through concerted efforts among all stakeholders. The policy can play a key role in the achievement of the common global goal.

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Rundholz, Adelheid. "Unwelcome consequences: Christina Dalcher’s Vox and John Lanchester’s The Wall." Crossroads. A Journal of English Studies, no. 37(2) (2022): 28–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.15290/cr.2022.37.2.02.

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The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientistsʼ Doomsday Clock, first introduced in 1947, recently movedthe fictional clock forward; it now rests at 100 seconds to midnight, or 100 seconds from destroying our selves. The numerous threats posed by nuclear weapons, pandemics, weaponized technology, and catastrophic climate change create an ʻenvironment of miseryʼ in which all action—and all inaction—is fraught with risk. Two recent novels employ dystopian visions of the United States and Britain, respectively, and explore the consequences of social engineering that takes place to minimize (perceived) risks and increase safety. Dalcherʼs Vox (2018) and Lanchesterʼs The Wall (2019) are two novels that are a commentary on a world in which risk is pervasive and in which (in)action can exacerbate dire circumstances. At the same time, the novels highlight that local (national) action is doomed to fail if it does not also consider the global interconnectedness of challenges and risks.

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Bissell, PhD, Richard A., Andrew Bumbak, MS, Matthew Levy, DO, MS, and Patrick Echebi, MD, MS. "Long-term global threat assessment: Challenging new roles for emergency managers." Journal of Emergency Management 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2009): 19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2009.0084.

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Based on currently available published data and literature from multiple disciplines, this article introduces medium- and long-term global developments and changes that will likely impact human society in disastrous or even catastrophic fashion, with significant impact on the roles and challenges of emergency managers. Some of the phenomena described include the following: (1) loss of fresh water, (2) significant sea level rise with resultant flooding, (3) increased heat leading to desertification and crop losses, (4) storms that are both more frequent and more violent, (5) massive food emergencies as crops fail for lack of water and/or saltwater inundation, (6) loss of the petroleumbased economy, and (7) massive population relocations on a level the world has never experienced. The perspective used is purposely global, in that the trends described do not respect political boundaries. We also recognize that mitigation and response activities may well involve many nations simultaneously. The article concludes with introductory suggestions of steps emergency management should take in preparing to serve new and more complex tasks to meet coming challenges, and a “call to action” for emergency managers to assume a more active role in confronting the risks imposed by forces that are now underway.

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Holland, Dawn, Hande Kucuk, and Miguel León-Ledesma. "INTRODUCTION: SPECIAL ISSUE ON ‘MACROECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE’." National Institute Economic Review 258 (2021): 9–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.40.

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Climate change is one of the most serious risks facing humanity. Temperature rises can lead to catastrophic climate and natural events that threaten livelihoods. From rising sea levels to flooding, bush fires, extreme temperatures and droughts, the economic and human cost is too large to ignore. More than 190 world leaders got together in Glasgow during November 2021 at the UN’s COP26 climate change summit to discuss progress on the Paris Agreement (COP21) and to agree on new measures to limit global warming. In Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2° and aim for 1.5° as well as to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate and raise the necessary funding to deliver on these aims. However, actions to date were not nearly enough as highlighted by the IPCC (2018) special report. The world is still on track to reach warming above 3° by 2100. As evident from figure 1, global temperatures have been on a steadily increasing path since the start of the 20th century and this process has substantially accelerated since the beginning of the 1980s. This has been unevenly distributed, with temperatures in the Northern hemisphere being a full 1°C higher than for the 1961–1990 average, whilst temperatures in the Southern hemisphere have increased by almost 0.5°C.

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Carmo, Flávio F., Andressa O. Lanchotti, and Luciana H. Y. Kamino. "Mining Waste Challenges: Environmental Risks of Gigatons of Mud, Dust and Sediment in Megadiverse Regions in Brazil." Sustainability 12, no. 20 (October 14, 2020): 8466. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12208466.

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The management of long-lived mining wastes is a complex environmental challenge, but the subject is little discussed among the public, scientific community, and policymakers. The negative environmental impacts caused by mining wastes are severe and cause damage to human health and the loss and degradation of natural ecosystems. With the objective of stimulating discussion to advance the development of measures to contain threats to biodiversity and to mitigate negative impacts, we present an overview of total volumes of mining waste disposal in tailings dams and dump piles, discriminating them by ore type and biome. We highlight the major environmental risks and challenges associated with tropical forests, savannas, and freshwater ecosystems and possible limitations and advances in public policies and governance. The scale of this challenge is global, as some data show, for example, Brazil generated 3.6 billion tons of solid mining waste in dump piles in the period between 2008 and 2019. The volume is equivalent to 62% of the global mass of nonfuel minerals removed from the planet’s crust in 2006. Numerous socio-environmental disasters are caused by catastrophic mining dam failures, and over the last 34 years, an average of one failure has occurred every three years in Brazil.

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Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, Junko Mochizuki, and Georg Pflug. "Impacts of Global and Climate Change Uncertainties for Disaster Risk Projections: A Case Study on Rainfall-Induced Flood Risk in Bangladesh." Journal of Extreme Events 03, no. 01 (March 2016): 1650004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2345737616500044.

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Future risks linked to extreme events and options for managing them are receiving increasing attention in the research and policy arena, where uncertainty is considered to be one of the most challenging aspects in regard to disasters triggered by natural hazards. To shed more light on this issue, this study conducts a detailed uncertainty assessment of a forward-looking country level catastrophe risk model for extreme flood events in Bangladesh and identifies how various sources of uncertainties contribute to the variability in modeling results. Alternative assumptions of climate, exposure and vulnerability parameters show that scenario uncertainty regarding socio-economic development — and exposure in particular — seems to dominate other sources of uncertainty. Importantly, this trend is particularly notable for the estimate of extreme events rather than annual average losses and for the prediction over the longer-time horizons rather than near future. It is concluded that there is ample need to better understand how future vulnerability and exposure will develop as they found to be core determinants of risk, apart from climate change, for increases in extreme losses. One viable way is the incorporation of bottom-up assessment of exposure asset build-up and further analysis of vulnerability drivers, which could reduce epistemic uncertainty regarding projection of catastrophic economic losses into future. It is suggested that the concept of “iterative risk management” may provide a feasible way to achieve reduction of these uncertainties in a step-by-step basis.

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Noon, Monica L., Allie Goldstein, Juan Carlos Ledezma, Patrick R. Roehrdanz, Susan C. Cook-Patton, Seth A. Spawn-Lee, Timothy Maxwell Wright, et al. "Mapping the irrecoverable carbon in Earth’s ecosystems." Nature Sustainability 5, no. 1 (November 18, 2021): 37–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00803-6.

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AbstractAvoiding catastrophic climate change requires rapid decarbonization and improved ecosystem stewardship at a planetary scale. The carbon released through the burning of fossil fuels would take millennia to regenerate on Earth. Though the timeframe of carbon recovery for ecosystems such as peatlands, mangroves and old-growth forests is shorter (centuries), this timeframe still exceeds the time we have remaining to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. There are some natural places that we cannot afford to lose due to their irreplaceable carbon reserves. Here we map ‘irrecoverable carbon’ globally to identify ecosystem carbon that remains within human purview to manage and, if lost, could not be recovered by mid-century, by when we need to reach net-zero emissions to avoid the worst climate impacts. Since 2010, agriculture, logging and wildfire have caused emissions of at least 4.0 Gt of irrecoverable carbon. The world’s remaining 139.1 ± 443.6 Gt of irrecoverable carbon faces risks from land-use conversion and climate change. These risks can be reduced through proactive protection and adaptive management. Currently, 23.0% of irrecoverable carbon is within protected areas and 33.6% is managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities. Half of Earth’s irrecoverable carbon is concentrated on just 3.3% of its land, highlighting opportunities for targeted efforts to increase global climate security.

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Koterov, A. N., L. N. Ushenkova, M. V. Kalinina, and A. P. Biryukov. "Comparison of the Risk of Mortality from Solid Cancers after Radiation Incidents and Occupational Exposures." Disaster Medicine, no. 3 (September 2021): 34–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.33266/2070-1004-2021-3-34-41.

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The purpose of the study was to compare the excess relative risk of mortality (ERR per 1 Sv) from solid cancers during acute — catastrophic or accidental and occupational, fractionated or chronic — exposure. Study materials and methods. Materials of the study: maintained database (source database) on nuclear industry workers from about 40 countries, based on which a pooled analysis of data was conducted to determine the integral value of ERR per 1 Gy for mortality from solid cancers; indicators of cohorts exposed to catastrophic and accidental radiation: the cohort LSS victims of the atomic bombings in Japan; residents of the Techa River — radioactive contamination resulting from releases from "Mayak" production association; Russian liquidators of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Study results and analysis. Comparison of the ERR of 1 Sv deaths from solid cancers for workers in the global nuclear industry (pooling analysis of data from 37 studies) with those of the LSS cohort; Techa River residents and Chernobyl accident liquidators showed no logical and principled differences, with the risks for the latter two cohorts being the highest. Although the findings partly support the approach of the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation that the carcinogenic effects of acute (catastrophic or accidental) and occupational (fractionated or chronic) radiation exposure are independent of the dose rate factor (DDREF), this issue cannot be considered unequivocally resolved, given the biological mechanisms and radiobiological experimental data. Based on the ERR per 1 Sv, the average external dose, and the annual background cancer mortality rates in Russia and the United States, the expected cancer mortality increase for 100,000 workers in the nuclear industry would be an average of 32-69 people over 10 years — 0.032-0.069% of the group. Such risks, due to multiple carcinogenic non-radiation factors of life and work, as well as fluctuating background values, cannot be taken into account in the practice of disaster medicine and public health.

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Mitchell, Audra, and Aadita Chaudhury. "Worlding beyond ‘the’ ‘end’ of ‘the world’: white apocalyptic visions and BIPOC futurisms." International Relations 34, no. 3 (August 18, 2020): 309–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047117820948936.

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We often hear that the ‘end of the world’ is approaching – but whose world, exactly, is expected to end? Over the last several decades, a popular and influential literature has emerged, in International Relations (IR), social sciences, and in popular culture, on subjects such as ‘human extinction’, ‘global catastrophic risks’, and eco-apocalypse. Written by scientists, political scientists, and journalists for wide public audiences,1 this genre diagnoses what it considers the most serious global threats and offers strategies to protect the future of ‘humanity’. This article will critically engage this genre to two ends: first, we aim to show that the present apocalyptic narratives embed a series of problematic assumptions which reveal that they are motivated not by a general concern with futures but rather with the task of securing white futures. Second, we seek to highlight how visions drawn from Black, Indigenous and People of Color (BIPOC) futurisms reimagine more just and vibrant futures.

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Păvălașcu, Narcis Sebastian, and Manuela Rozalia Gabor. "A Case Study on the Particularities and Sustainability of the Concepts of TQM, Quality Control, and Risk Management in the Corporate Insurance Industry: Loss and the Incidence of Catastrophic Risks." Proceedings 63, no. 1 (December 10, 2020): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2020063003.

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The development of quality control and risk management systems is a priority for any industry and especially for the corporate insurance industry. Defective product and work incidents represent 14% of the total number of insurance claims, serving as the main loss of liability for businesses. According to a Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty press release, the cyber risks and impact of new technologies will have an increasing influence on the landscape of corporate losses in the coming years. Our results from this study conclude that the emerging business risks for the next 3–4 years are as follows: cyber incidents, 48%; new technologies, 30%; and changes in legislations/regulations, 28% (i.e., the present pandemic cause by COVID-19, the Brexit, trade wars, and tariffs etc.).

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Pearce, Joshua M., Maryam Khaksari, and David Denkenberger. "Preliminary Automated Determination of Edibility of Alternative Foods: Non-Targeted Screening for Toxins in Red Maple Leaf Concentrate." Plants 8, no. 5 (April 26, 2019): 110. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants8050110.

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Alternative food supplies could maintain humanity despite sun-blocking global catastrophic risks (GCRs) that eliminate conventional agriculture. A promising alternative food is making leaf concentrate. However, the edibility of tree leaves is largely uncertain. To overcome this challenge, this study provides the methods for obtaining rapid toxics screening of common leaf concentrates. The investigation begins with a non-targeted approach using an ultra-high-resolution hybrid ion trap orbitrap mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI) coupled to an ultra-high pressure two-dimensional liquid chromatograph system on the most common North American leaf: the red maple. Identified chemicals from this non-targeted approach are then cross-referenced with the OpenFoodTox database to identify toxic chemicals. Identified toxins are then screened for formula validation and evaluated for risk as a food. The results after screening show that red maple leaf concentrate contains at least eight toxic chemicals, which upon analysis do not present substantial risks unless consumed in abundance. This indicates that red maple leaf is still a potential alternative food. The results are discussed in the context of expanding the analysis with open science and using leaf extract from other plants that are not traditionally used as foods to offset current global hunger challenges, and move to a more sustainable food system while also preparing for GCRs.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Global catastrophic risks'

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