Academic literature on the topic 'Global electricity current'

Global warming and climate change coincide in their main causes, the massive emission of greenhouse gases, which retain heat in the atmosphere and on the earth's surface through the so-called greenhouse effect. The generation of electricity by means of fossil fuels is an important emitter of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), and halogenated compounds containing F, Cl, and Br. With the purpose of contributing to the construction of viable solutions to the current energy situation of the country and in the foundation of a sustainable future, the use of solar energy for the generation of electricity by means of solar panels represents an option. The purpose of this study is to describe and control the solar cell protection material Ethylene-Vinyl-Acetate (EVA), as a contribution to the Quality Assurance of solar panels, since the function of this material is essential for the protection of solar cells, which are a vital part of the solar panel. The tests performed were: Gel content, adhesion test, and durability tests. The results obtained were within specification according to IEC 61215. From this work it is concluded that it is important to continue testing the whole process and components of the solar panels in order to guarantee the useful life of the finished product, as well as to contribute to sustainable development.

Over the next fifty years, most new wealth will be accumulated in cities; this includes physical infrastructure (road, rail, electricity, telecommunications and sanitation), productive capital (houses, offices and factories) and knowledge capital (skills, knowhow and ideas). The development of cities will also determine humanity’s ability to preserve natural capital. Consequently, urbanization deserves urgent attention from policymakers, academics and businesses worldwide. The current global urbanization project is peaking and within a century it will be all but over. The richest and fastest growing cities are those which increasingly specialize in knowledge-based sectors, facilitating the flow of knowledge across people, institutions and enterprises. Well-governed, connected, clean and uncongested cities are likely to attract productive capital, talent and creativity. But the consequences of bad governance and inaction over planning can stymie performance and erode human welfare for decades or centuries.

Organic electronics is a platform for very low cost and high performance optoelectronic and electronic devices that cover large areas, are lightweight, and can be both flexible and conformable to irregularly shaped surfaces such as foldable smart phones. Organics are at the core of the global organic light emitting device (OLED) display industry, and also having use in efficient lighting sources, solar cells, and thin film transistors useful in medical and a range of other sensing, memory and logic applications. This book introduces the theoretical foundations and practical realization of devices in organic electronics. It is a product of both one and two semester courses that have been taught over a period of more than two decades. The target audiences are students at all levels of graduate studies, highly motivated senior undergraduates, and practicing engineers and scientists. The book is divided into two sections. Part I, Foundations, lays down the fundamental principles of the field of organic electronics. It is assumed that the reader has an elementary knowledge of quantum mechanics, and electricity and magnetism. Background knowledge of organic chemistry is not required. Part II, Applications, focuses on organic electronic devices. It begins with a discussion of organic thin film deposition and patterning, followed by chapters on organic light emitters, detectors, and thin film transistors. The last chapter describes several devices and phenomena that are not covered in the previous chapters, since they lie outside of the current mainstream of the field, but are nevertheless important.

Before this book was published in 1992, conceptual frameworks for brain function were based on the behavior of single neurons, applied globally. This book developed a different conceptual framework, based on large populations of neurons. This was done by showing that patterns of activities among the units in trained artificial neural network models had properties that resembled those recorded from populations of neurons recorded one at a time. It is one of the first books to bring together computational concepts and behavioral data within a neurobiological framework. Aimed at a broad audience of neuroscientists, computer scientists, cognitive scientists, and philosophers, the book is written for both expert and novice. This anniversary edition offers a new preface by the authors that puts the book in the context of current research. This approach influenced a generation of researchers in the field of neuroscience. Even today, when neuroscientists can routinely record from hundreds of neurons using optics rather than electricity, and the 2013 White House BRAIN initiative heralded a new era in innovative neurotechnologies, the main message of this book is still relevant.

For technical reasons, the amount of electricity fed to the electrical grid must always remain at the same level of the demand requested by theconsumers to prevent blackouts and damage to the network. This leads to situations where production is greater than consumption and vice versa. This is where storage system technologies and interconnection to the network play a key role in balancing these disadvantages. Untilrecently, the utility of energy storage systems was focused on improving the efficiency of conventional generation systems, such as the use of pumped hydroelectricity to supplement the supply to the network in periods of extra demand or for plant start-ups. This type of storage technology is today the most reliable and in many ways the only one economically available. However, its use it is limited to specific cases that meet strict characteristics. Currently globally, the approach to storage technologies of energy, is to help improve the overall sustainability of large quantities of renewable energies, coming from intermittent sources such like the sun, the sea or the wind

The "East Data West Computing" project was launched in February 2022 to alleviate the current imbalance of energy distribution in China and to promote the development of a green digital economy. It is designed to improve the ideal energy layout in China, using the abundant renewable energy available in the West to supply electricity for existing and planned data processing and analyzing centers and other high-tech businesses in the East. The nature of the paper is impact analysis based on qualitative and quantitative research methods. The paper's first objective is to quantify the probable impact of the initiative on China's energy balance in general, the electricity market in particular, its expected effects on Chinese energy imports, and its global implications. The second objective is to analyze the expected impact of the new initiative on the international competitiveness of China's high-tech industries and the structural optimization in the eastern digital industry using a two-way fixed effects model as well as its global implications. Based on the analysis, generalized and instructive conclusions are drawn, first, on the role of renewables in the regional distribution of electricity and the green transition, and, second, on the significance of the supply and price of electricity in the competitiveness of high-tech industries. It is assumed that the project would promote the development of green digital industries across the East and west regions. At first glance, the paper is a Chinese case study focusing on global effects and implications, exploring the relationship between electricity production and consumption and how the high-tech industries give a chance to arrive at scientifically novel or new conclusions.

AbstractThis article analyses the contribution of sugar-cane bioelectricity to the distribution and diversification of power generation in Brazil. A transition is currently underway towards an energy mix characterized by natural gas and new renewable energy sources, mainly wind and solar. Energy security and industrial development priorities have created political and economic challenges for bioelectricity governance. However, meta-discourses of energy transition and bioeconomy are giving rise to selection pressures that are promoting institutional changes towards an expansion of the ethanol market. By using the multi-level perspective of transitions, this paper concludes that, given the technology in use for bioelectricity production, the critical financial state of the sugar-cane industry and the current priorities of the electricity marketing model, sugar-cane bioelectricity, which has a key role to play in the energy matrix, remains uncompetitive and dependent on specific public policies to support its expansion.

AbstractNuclear power is an important component of the global response to climate change. Nuclear power provides continuous electricity and can overcome the intermittency of the renewable energy sources dependent on wind and sun. Assurance of nuclear safety is essential for further expanding nuclear power as a part of the global response to climate change. The commitment to safety must be a universal priority, as the prospects for nuclear power everywhere would be adversely influenced by the public outcry following a serious nuclear event anywhere. The importance of the global nuclear safety regime was revealed by the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. The accident reinforced that in addition to the need to have a competent national nuclear safety system in place, it is ultimately important to have an international system that ensures that the relevant national institutions diligently and effectively fulfil their roles. This chapter examines the current global nuclear safety regime and suggests improvements, including through safety inspection, greater transparency measures, increased harmonization of standards, and others.

Due to the continuous resources’ reduction and cost increase of conventional fossil fuel along with the global trend to decrease the greenhouse effect, clean energy production from renewable sources has been given a global great concern. Among renewable energy sources, wind energy conversion systems have received a worldwide notable attention. It is expected that more than 10% of the global electricity demand will to be generated by wind energy conversion systems by the year 2020. During their early implementation stage, wind turbines were to be disconnected during abnormal and fault conditions within the electricity grid it is connected to. Owing to the fact that current wind installations supply a significant portion of the load demand, disconnecting windfarms may lead to business interruption and discontinuity of power supply to the end user. As such, transmission line operators have developed strict grid codes that wind turbine generator must meet to maintain its connection to support the grid during various fault conditions. To comply with these codes, flexible AC transmission systems have been widely used with current wind energy conversion systems to modulate reactive and/or active power at the point of common coupling of the wind turbine generator and the grid. This book presents the applications of various flexible ac transmission system devices to wind energy conversion systems. Devices such as unified power flow controllers, superconducting magnetic energy storage and static synchronous compensator are covered in this book. Topologies, control systems along with case studies of the aforementioned devices are presented and discussed. This book will be useful for postgraduate research students, upper-division electrical engineering students and practicing engineers.

AbstractChina’s power sector has contributed to more than 45 per cent of China’s total historical carbon emissions. The economic turnaround experienced in China since 1978 has increased incomes and the national gross domestic product, in part through actively embracing consumerism. Environmental exploitation and widespread pollution of air, soil and water have accompanied the development process. This chapter qualitatively explores China’s current development path by presenting a social science analysis of electricity consumption and energy services. The analysis will not encompass the whole energy sector but looks mainly at the services that electricity provides domestically in an urban Chinese context. Seeing needs and demand as socially constructed and developed over time through a variety of influences, the chapter analyses and assesses the services provided by electricity. The working hypothesis of this chapter is that we need to change from efficiency thinking to sufficiency thinking, i.e., the possibility of having enough of something for a particular purpose, and the onus should still be on the affluent population of the world. Nevertheless, China organises its economy according to market-based and government-guided principles and acts as a growth engine for global capitalist endeavours. To make headway, the chapter discusses two points: First, is energy growth in China mainly about developing basic services and infrastructures? Second, is it ethical or practical to argue for restrictions on energy growth in China?

AbstractThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are also warming twice as fast as the global average, with temperatures already reaching a 2 °C scenario compared to preindustrial temperatures. According to the United Nations Environment Program, cooling generates around 7% of the global greenhouse gas emissions, while it is responsible for 70% of the peak electricity demand in the GCC. This highlights the prominence of heat as a key climate impact for the GCC region and it really is a matter of both climate mitigation as well as adaptation. Heat resilience and cooling therefore become priority action areas for the governments of the region to deliver on the Paris Goals in a locally responsive manner. This article aims to provide an overview of the impacts of increasing heat on the GCC region, current efforts to address them, and opportunities for enhanced climate action for a heat-resilient future. It highlights existing practices in mitigating the impacts of increased heat through urban planning, public realm design, and building design as well as workforce guidelines for outdoor jobs. It also identifies key areas requiring additional research within the region and key policy recommendations for countries in the GCC to better address the various impacts of increasing temperatures.

AbstractThe lack of affordable, clean, and reliable energy in Africa’s rural areas forces people to resort to poor quality energy source, which is detrimental to the people’s health and prevents the economic development of communities. Moreover, access to safe water and food security are concerns closely linked to health issues and children malnourishment. Recent climate change due to global warming has worsened the already critical situation.Electricity is well known to be an enabler of development as it allows the use of modern devices thus enabling the development of not only income-generating activities but also water pumping and food processing and conservation that can promote socioeconomic growth. However, all of this is difficult to achieve due to the lack of investors, local skills, awareness by the community, and often also government regulations.All the above mentioned barriers to the uptake of electricity in rural Kenya could be solved by the coordinated effort of government, private sector, and academia, also referred to as Triple Helix, in which each entity may partially take the other’s role. This chapter discretizes the above and shows how a specific county (Marsabit) has benefited from this triple intervention. Existing government policies and actions and programs led by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies are reviewed, highlighting the current interconnection and gaps in promoting integrated actions toward climate change adaptation and energy access.

Bulk power system based on fossil fuels becomes less reliable and stable in economic terms, technically more labor-consuming and harmful environmental impact. These problems have led many countries to find ways to supply the electricity from a green and sustainable energy source. The electricity derived from renewable energy sources such as hydro, solar, wind, biomass and geothermal refers to as green and sustainable energy. Geothermal energy is not only utilized for electric power generation, but it is also exploited to generate environmentally friendly heat energy. As of the end of 2018, geothermal global cumulative installed capacity exceeded 13 GW, generated an energy of about 630 peta joule (PJ). This chapter presents the geothermal energy resource in terms of the types of power plants, principle of the electricity generation and current world status of geothermal resource utilization. The issues such as advantages and disadvantages of geothermal energy economically and environmentally and means to overcome shortcomings are also considered. The main barriers for the development of geothermal industry include high resource and exploration risk, overall high development cost particularly drilling, and inadequate financing and grant support. The global averaged cost of electricity for the geothermal facility is nearly 0.072 USD/kWh as compared to 0.056 for onshore wind and 0.047 USD/kWh for hydropower. However, the technology is rather competitive to other renewables such as concentrating solar power (0.185 USD/kWh) and offshore wind (0.127 USD/kWh). Meanwhile, further research and development is critically needed to eliminate the non-condensable gases (NCGs) associated with the geothermal power generation.

Developing renewable energy is an effective approach to reduce global warming and satisfies increasing energy demands. Among all of the renewable energy sources, solar power has the greatest potential because it is derived naturally from the sun. Photovoltaic methods convert solar radiation into direct current electricity via semiconductors. Although the energy coming from the sun is abundant, the cost of generating electricity using photovoltaic methods remains higher than conventional means of generating electricity. Often, expensive manufacturing and installation costs reduce the benefits of photovoltaic systems. In order to encourage the usage of photovoltaic systems, several countries have used a feed-in tariff calculated based on the installation costs as an incentive. Considering this important incentive, a learning curve model is constructed to model the installation costs. The cost and benefit model helps evaluate profitability as well as determine the feasible buyback prices and future installation plans. There are many factors that influence the costs. Therefore, this study uses Taiwan as case study and develops a hierarchical installation cost learning curve model for photovoltaic facility construction. Finally, the progression rate, which represents the cost trend, is calculated using case data.

In the last decade, at the global level, most countries have emphasized the reduction of energy consumption produced with the help of solid fuels, trying to reduce the volume of greenhouse gases and polluting gases by identifying new sources and methods of energy production that have a low effect on the environment and people. Romania is preparing to ensure energy security by producing electricity from renewable sources. Romania's medium- and long-term strategy will be influenced by the European Green Pact, which has ambitious targets for the next period for reducing carbon emissions for each member state. These objectives may also include the recent turbulence in the energy markets in Europe as well as the effects of the conflict in Ukraine. If at the beginning of the implementation of the objectives to reduce the exploitation of useful mineral substances, the geopolitical situation of the world was stable and there were interconnections between the energy-producing states, in 2024 we were faced with a radical change in the global geopolitical context, a change that would require a rethinking of the strategy management of useful mineral resources. The paper presents an analysis, in a global context, of the situation in Romania regarding the production of electricity from solid fuels.

The climate, energy, and health crises, alongside the conflict events in Eastern Europe, have generated new directions regarding the perspectives of global and national energy transition, by orienting it towards a decarbonized economy. The increased frequency of climate change-related weather events affects the availability of renewable energy sources (wind and solar) and energy supply security. The abandonment of fossil fuel-based electricity and heat due to commitments and objectives established in the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the 2015 Paris Agreement, and the adoption of policies aiming for climate neutrality, leads to both positive and negative consequences for the economy and population. The Romanian energy transition will require the reform of the current energy model by combining different classical, traditional sources with renewable ones, resulting in a specific energy mix, i.e., an energy hybridization, and implicitly a Hybrid Energy System. Currently, Romanian coal accounts for a maximum of 20% in electricity production, and Romania is rated as the fifth lignite consumer in Europe, given the increase in coal consumption worldwide in recent years, reaching record levels at the expense of the growing demand for clean energy sources. This paper aims, on one hand, to analyze the current situation of Romanian thermal coal extraction in the context of decarbonization, and on the other hand, to explore the perspectives of modernizing the system with clean energies and implementing energy hybridization.

This study addresses the severe environmental disaster in the village of Umm al-Nasr in the northern Gaza Strip, which faces one of the most severe environmental disasters. The equivalent of 130 thousand cubic meters of sewage flowed into the village of Umm al-Nasr from the sewage collection basin. The losses include the deaths of five citizens and the injuries of 35 others, in addition to environmental damage and material losses in the village as a result of this environmental disaster, including pollution levels, ecosystem disruption, and health risks. The research aims to explore the complex impacts of this crisis on society and sustainable development goals (SDGs). On the impacts of such disasters on infrastructure, especially water supply, sanitation, and electricity, taking into account the exacerbating issue of overgrowth. An important finding of this study emphasizes the inadequacy of current infrastructure programs to meet the needs of the growing population. Deficiencies are evident in water supply, sanitation, and electricity. In addition to the high rates of population growth in the Gaza Strip, especially land has harmful effects on the quality and availability of groundwater. The community lacks the financial and technical resources necessary to properly maintain and develop basic infrastructure. Climate changes and increasing amounts of rainfall in the North: gaps in infrastructure planning and a lack of early warning. Durable and sustainable political solutions between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Addressing political divisions within the Palestinian territories is essential to achieving stability in the region. They pose challenges to achieving and have multifaceted impacts on sustainable development goals (SDGs), affecting health, poverty, and economic growth. They pose challenges to achieving SDGs related to health (SDG 3), poverty alleviation (SDG 1), and resilient cities (SDG 11). Integrated for Risk Management The global forces related to the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development are Goals Goal 6 (clean water and sanitation), 11 (sustainable cities and communities), 13 (climate action), and 17 (partnerships for the goals)

Hybrid electricity storage systems are becoming essential for efficiently managing renewable energy sources and enhancing the stability of power grids. As the adoption of renewables expands, these systems are crucial for balancing supply and demand, mitigating intermittency issues, and ensuring grid reliability. This paper offers an in-depth review of different system configurations used in hybrid storage systems, emphasizing the significance of understanding and optimizing their intricate designs. Recent technological advancements have paved the way for the development of innovative storage system topologies, including redox flow batteries, solid-state lithium-ion batteries, and supercapacitor-based systems. Each of these technologies presents distinct advantages: redox flow batteries are notable for their scalability and extended cycle life, solid-state lithium-ion batteries provide high energy density and enhanced safety, while supercapacitors excel in applications requiring fast charging and discharging. Nonetheless, these innovations also face challenges, such as the high costs and manufacturing complexities of solid-state lithium-ion batteries, as well as the lower energy density characteristic of supercapacitors. Evaluating the advantages and limitations of these advanced topologies is critical for guiding future research and development. The strategic integration of these technologies can result in more resilient, efficient, and cost-effective hybrid storage systems. This evolution is essential for supporting the global shift towards sustainable energy, ensuring that hybrid systems not only meet current demands but also pave the way for future innovations in renewable energy management.

Maritime transport plays a crucial role in the global economy, ensuring the transport of around 80% of world trade. However, shipping is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for approximately 2.5% of total global emissions. In this context, the efficiency of fuel consumption in ships using the renewable energy sources can bring significant benefits for the environment and contributes to the achievement of the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The opportunity of the work consists in the fact that it aims to improve the efficiency of the fuel consumption of the ships through renewable energy sources. The integration of a hybrid system consisting of 4 wind turbines on a board ship can increase the energy efficiency. Wind turbines can capture the power of the wind to generate electricity, while kites can be used to capture energy from air currents at higher altitudes. Research can explore the possibilities of integrating the hybrid system with other renewable energy sources such as solar panels. This paper also presented a simulation of the static loads used in Inventor 2022.

This paper is based on data compiled in the course of developing, for InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB), a WTE Guidebook for managers and policymakers in the Latin America and Caribbean region. As part of this work, a list was compiled of nearly all plants in the world that thermally treat nearly 200 million tons of municipal solid wastes (MSW) and produce electricity and heat. An estimated 200 WTE facilities were built, during the first decade of the 21st century, mostly in Europe and Asia. The great majority of these plants use the grate combustion of as-received MSW and produce electricity. The dominance of the grate combustion technology is apparently due to simplicity of operation, high plant availability (>90%), and facility for training personnel at existing plants. Novel gasification processes have been implemented mostly in Japan but a compilation of all Japanese WTE facilities showed that 84% of Japan’s MSW is treated in grate combustion plants. Several small-scale WTE plants (<5 tons/hour) are operating in Europe and Japan and are based both on grate combustion and in implementing WTE projects. This paper is based on the sections of the WTE Guidebook that discuss the current use of WTE technology around the world. Since the beginning of history, humans have generated solid wastes and disposed them in makeshift waste dumps or set them on fire. After the industrial revolution, near the end of the 18th century, the amount of goods used and then discarded by people increased so much that it was necessary for cities to provide landfills and incinerators for disposing wastes. The management of urban, or municipal, solid wastes (MSW) became problematic since the middle of the 20th century when the consumption of goods, and the corresponding generation of MSW, increased by an order of magnitude. In response, the most advanced countries developed various means and technologies for dealing with solid wastes. These range from reducing wastes by designing products and packaging, to gasification technologies. Lists of several European plants are presented that co-combust medical wastes (average of 1.8% of the total feedstock) and wastewater plant residue (average of 2% of the feedstock).

Promotion of the utilization of natural energy is urgent as a countermeasure to global warming. There are several kinds of energy resources in the ocean: waves, thermal differences, tidal levels and tidal currents. A feasibility study on tidal current power generation in Kanmon Strait, Japan is introduced in this report. A variable mesh version of the Marine Environmental Committee ocean model is used to reproduce the tidal current and to learn the distribution of tidal kinetic energy. Based on the simulation results, the optimal location for installation of a power plant is determined. The electric power created by a propeller type generator with a 10m diameter is also calculated as the average annual consumption of a household and availability of the power generation by the tidal current in Kanmon Strait is discussed.

Abstract The information industry is developing rapidly, but the rapid growth of the electricity demand in information industry has not been paid enough attention. According to our research of this paper, the electricity demand in information industry will exceed 10,000 TWh (10 trillion kilowatt-hour) in 2030. As a result, on the one hand, the speed increase of global installed capacity should be 60% higher than the current forecast, in order to meet the electricity demand of information industry. Additionally, due to the acceleration of carbon emission across the information industry, it will be more difficult to achieve the goal of 1.5°C temperature rise limit by 2030. On the other hand, in the historical process of green adjustment and low-carbon transition of the global energy structure, the electricity cost in the information industry will also increase significantly. Namely, with the rapid development of the information industry, the information industry itself, global power supply, carbon emission and electricity price balance are facing more severe challenges. According to the study in this paper, it is believed that vigorously developing nuclear power is the most economical and realistic way to effectively deal with these challenges.

Electrical power is a resource humans heavily rely on, and it has become a basic human need. Today, the major sources of electricity generation are fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear power. This paper concentrates on electricity generated through nuclear power and compares it to the other electricity generation technologies. The objective behind this paper is to discover the impact that nuclear power has on the total electricity generated in Canada, and in addition on a global scale. The paper presents the current role that nuclear power plays in the global electricity generation, and also the expansions that need to be made in the nuclear power industry to fulfill the future electrical power demands. A number of projections have been made based on the current rate of nuclear reactors being put into operation, which is approximately 4 reactors per year, and current term of reactor operation, which is 45 years. These projections were made for the nuclear power in the world. A major outcome of this analysis projects that between 2030 and 2035, the number of operating nuclear reactors in the world can drop by 50%. If this dangerous trend is not addressed, we can lose a viable, and reliable source of energy. The datasets that were analyzed during the process were taken from multiple open literature sources such as journals, reports, and online databases. The paper presents a comparison between nuclear power and other energy sources, and the positive impact nuclear power can have on the world if needed advancements were made in building new nuclear power plants.

2016 will surely be the hottest year since records began in the 19th century. The increase will be very close to the target set in the Paris Agreement to avoid an increase in global temperature by 1.5 °C. Average temperaturesin 2016 have risen to 1.2 °C above what they were before the industrial revolution. The dilemma facing the world today, in view of these data, becomes even more urgent: How to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, accepting that their demand will continue to exist in the coming decades? In the energy sector, many solutions have been proposed to completely replace fossil fuels for electricity generation, such as massive deployment of renewable energy generation and increased energy efficiency. There are many restrictions, however, to achieve this result in the medium term, ranging from technological limitations in the massive deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energies, to the political economy of countries that are unlikely to reduce their oil production And carboniferous as long as demand exists. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) offers an alternative to mitigate CO2 emissions from fossil fuel power plants, considering that, given current and future energy needs, the operation of these plants will continue in the coming years. CAC could mitigate up to 90% of the carbon dioxide emitted by the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation and industrial processes. Additionally, the use of CAC with renewable biomass is one of the few carbon reduction technologies that can be used in a "carbon-negative" mode. If biomass from fuelwood crops were used, carbon could be absorbed and simultaneously generate electricity. CCS, therefore, is a viable alternative to solve the dilemma of reducing emissions while satisfying the growing energy needs of the world.

Analyzing the environmental performance of alternative vehicle technologies in the current energy landscape of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is very important given their expected role in future transportation systems. This study presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of sedans and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) powered by different propulsion systems to analyze their environmental performance in the KSA context. The LCA examines multiple impact categories, with a particular focus on global warming potential (GWP). The results reveal that hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) consistently demonstrate the lowest GWP across both sedan and SUV vehicle classes, achieving reductions of approximately 30%, 28%, and 22%, respectively, compared with the baseline gasoline-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) also exhibit lower GWP (approximately 16%) than do conventional ICEVs but to a lesser extent than do other advanced powertrains. The energy supply chain plays a crucial role for BEVs, including FCEVs and PHEVs, underscoring the importance of decarbonizing electricity and hydrogen (H2) production to realize the full environmental advantages of these technologies in the KSA. In terms of deployment feasibility, PHEVs and HEVs have a distinct advantage over FCEVs, as they can leverage the existing electricity grid and fueling infrastructure, making them a more practical and readily available solution for reducing near-term emissions in the KSA transportation sector. Policymakers and industry stakeholders are encouraged to develop targeted incentives, regulations, and support mechanisms to accelerate the market penetration of these technologies while also considering strategies to address their multifaceted environmental implications.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">Hydrogen has gained global recognition as a crucial energy resource, holding immense potential to offer clean, efficient, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly energy solutions. Through water electrolysis powered by green electricity, the production of decarbonized “green hydrogen” is achievable. Hydrogen technology emerges as a key pathway for realizing the global objective of “carbon neutrality.” Among various water electrolysis technologies, proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) stands out as exceptionally promising. It boasts high energy density, elevated electrolysis efficiency, and the capacity for high output pressure, making it a frontrunner in the quest for sustainable hydrogen production.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"><b>The Application of Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolysis</b> delves into the challenges and trends ahead of PEMWE—from fundamental research to practical application—and briefly describes its relative characteristics, key components, and future targets. The cost-effectiveness of PEMWE is illustrated and the report explores the potential for deeper integration into various industries, such as renewable energy consumption and hydrogen for industrial purposes. It further points the current trends, concluding with a series of recommendations for consideration by government, industry stakeholders, and researchers.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph"><a href="https://www.sae.org/publications/edge-research-reports" target="_blank">Click here to access the full SAE EDGE</a><sup>TM</sup><a href="https://www.sae.org/publications/edge-research-reports" target="_blank"> Research Report portfolio.</a></div></div>

The 2008-2012 Country Program Evaluation for Guyana concludes that the Bank's strategy was aligned with the development objectives and economic priorities of the government. Nevertheless, its program has produced mixed results. In infrastructure, progress was achieved by consolidating the primary road network and extending the electrical grid to unserved areas; however, efforts to reduce losses in the electricity sector did not meet their target. In competitiveness, the financial and judicial sectors benefitted from institutional and structural reforms, and the business environment was strengthened through the adoption of streamlined procedures. However, key initiatives to deepen the financial market and increase access to credit have met with less success. Gains have also been made towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; however, the absence of updated data in the social sectors hinders the evaluation of results. The average age of the loan portfolio is 4.56 years, the oldest in the Bank. With the launch of the Low Carbon Development Strategy, Guyana has an opportunity to benefit from global commitments for rainforest conservation and climate change. The Bank should continue to support new initiatives that lie within the LCDS, and should work closely with Guyana to enhance its national capacity to monitor and report the results. Although Guyana has shown the greatest improvement among D-2 countries in terms of its Country Institutional and Policy Evaluation score, FSO resources available to the country under the current program were 32% less than the allocation under the previous program. The sustainability of the Bank¿s work and its relevance in Guyana could be affected by a further reduction in future FSO allocations. The CS emphasized the strengthening and use of national systems by Bank projects. Several operations use the Integrated Financial Management System for accounting, and the intention is to use this for all new Bank-funded operations. Given the findings in this CPE, OVE recommends that the Administration: (i) take advantage of the current period of stability and growth to support Guyana on its path toward becoming a green economy; (ii) seek to leverage declining FSO resources; and (iii) continue strengthening Guyana's national systems.

Many policymakers now see the use of low-carbon hydrogen as a strong contender in terms of how to achieve climate neutrality goals. Currently, hydrogen is used in refinery processing, ammonia production, or methanol production as feedstock, where no other alternatives exist. However, new uses for hydrogen are being explored in the industry, transport, and electricity sectors, which together account for approximately 85% of global energy-related CO2 emissions.

In 2024, the macroeconomic adjustment process continued, characterized by a sustained reduction in inflation that began in 2023 and a decline in the current account deficit of the balance of payments. This adjustment took place in the context of a contractionary monetary policy, with a gradual reduction in the monetary policy interest rate. GDP grew by 1.7%, driven by investment and consumption, while employment increased by 2.2%. Foreign reserves remained at adequate levels, and Banco de la República recorded a profit of COP 10,041 billion, benefiting from the returns on foreign reserves. Macroeconomic environment The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank estimate that the global economy grew by 3.2% in 2024, a rate similar to that observed in 2023 (3.3%). This occurred in a context of moderating inflation and declining monetary policy interest rates in most countries. Global inflation moderated over the course of 2024. However, inflation rebounded toward the end of the year in some advanced economies, mainly due to rising energy costs. In Latin America, inflation trends were mixed. While some economies experienced sustained price stability, in most cases, inflation remained above the targets set by their respective central banks. Monetary policy interest rates in most Latin American economies continued to decline, reflecting a moderation in inflation and inflation expectations. However, some countries in the region recently raised interest rates in response to renewed inflationary pressures. Oil production increased in 2024, leading to a 3% decrease in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging around USD 80 per barrel. However, geopolitical tensions prevented a more pronounced decline. The U.S. dollar appreciated against most currencies, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would implement more gradual policy rate cuts. In 2025, global economic growth is projected to be similar to that of 2024, supported by declining inflation, wage recovery, sustained employment growth, and a less restrictive monetary policy stance. However, geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies introduce uncertainty. More gradual reductions in the Fed’s interest rate are expected, with the possibility of pauses if inflationary pressures resurface. In Latin America, central banks are expected to continue cutting interest rates, although monetary policy may remain contractionary where inflation has not yet reached target levels. Domestic economic activity Colombia’s GDP grew by 1.7% in 2024, reflecting a moderate recovery compared to the previous year. This occurred in an environment of lower interest rates, improved domestic demand, and an increase in remittances and exports. Private consumption and fixed capital investment—particularly in infrastructure projects such as the Bogotá metro—contributed to economic growth. However, investment in housing declined. Agricultural and services sectors led economic growth, while mining and manufacturing contracted. The loan portfolio experienced low nominal growth, though some segments showed signs of recovery toward the end of the year. For 2025, economic activity is expected to continue recovering, approaching its productive capacity and aligning with the convergence of inflation toward its target. Employment Employment grew by 2.2% in 2024, resulting in the creation of 508,000 jobs. This expansion was driven by rural areas, where employment increased by 3.2%, surpassing the 1.4% growth in urban areas. The commerce, accommodation, manufacturing, public administration, health, and education sectors were the primary contributors to job creation. Wage employment grew by 2.7%, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, while non-wage employment increased by 1.8%, leading to a decline in informality to 55.6%. The national unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points, reaching 9.7%, with a more pronounced reduction in rural areas. For 2025, the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable, supported by a positive economic outlook. Inflation and Monetary Policy Headline inflation in Colombia fell significantly from 9.3% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024, primarily due to a restrictive monetary policy that moderated domestic demand and contributed to a reduction in the current account deficit. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated products) declined from 8.4% to 5.2%, reflecting the effectiveness of contractionary monetary policy. Inflation of goods dropped sharply, from 7.1% to 0.6%, due in part to the resolution of logistical disruptions and the appreciation of the peso. In contrast, services inflation declined more moderately, from 9% to 7%, influenced by indexation to past inflation and the increase in the minimum wage. Prices of food decreased from 5.0% to 3.3%, driven by lower pressures on processed food prices, benefiting from reduced costs of imported raw materials and a favorable exchange rate. Prices of regulated items dropped to 7.3%, following smaller adjustments in gasoline prices (after the required increases in 2023) and lower electricity and public service tariff increases, except for gas prices, which continued to rise. Inflation is expected to continue converging toward the 3% target in 2025, with headline inflation projected to close the year at around 4.1%, continuing its downward path into 2026. However, new risks have emerged, including a recent rise in producer costs, a significant increase in the minimum wage, and a rebound in inflation expectations. Balance of payments Colombia’s current account deficit narrowed to 1.7% of GDP between January and September 2024, down from 2.5% in the same period in 2023. This improvement was driven by higher remittance inflows, an improved services trade balance, and lower factor income outflows. Remittances reached a record USD 11,848 million, with the United States and Spain as the main sources of these inflows. A decline in the profits of foreign direct investment (FDI) companies, particularly in the oil and coal sectors, also contributed to reducing external imbalances. The trade deficit widened due to a greater imbalance in the trade of goods within a context of lower commodity prices. However, this was partially offset by strong agricultural and industrial exports. Additionally, the good performance of service exports, supported by higher international tourist arrivals, helped contain a larger trade imbalance. The financial account recorded net capital inflows equivalent to 1.1% of GDP, lower than the 2.5% recorded in 2023, primarily due to a decline in foreign direct investment in mining, transportation, and oil. This was partially offset by growth in financial and business services investment. The current account deficit is estimated to have closed 2024 at 1.8% of GDP, with a projected widening to 2.5% in 2025, in line with higher expected economic growth and stronger domestic demand. Public finances According to preliminary figures from the 2025 Financial Plan (PF-25) presented by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), Colombia’s General Government deficit reached 4.8% of GDP in 2024, marking a 2.1 percentage-point increase compared to 2023. This deterioration was mainly driven by a worsening in the balances of the Central National Government (GNC) (2.6 pp) and the Social Security subsector (0.4 pp), partially offset by a 0.8 pp improvement in Regional and Local Government balances. The reduction in the deficit position of the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC for its acronym in Spanish) was notable, following gasoline price adjustments, which closed the gap between the reference price and local market prices. However, fiscal pressures persist due to ongoing subsidies for ACPM (diesel fuel). The total and primary deficits of the Central Government stood at 6.8% and 2.4% of GDP, respectively, driven by a decline in tax revenue—particularly from income and external taxes—alongside increased government spending. The net debt of the Central Government increased to 60% of GDP, exceeding previous forecasts. For 2025, a total and primary deficit of 5.1% and 0.2% of GDP is projected, with tax revenue expected to grow by 22.6%. Compliance with the fiscal rule and the stabilization of public finances will be critical in 2025, given the potential impact of fiscal slippage on the country’s risk premiums. Failure to meet fiscal targets could raise interest rates for both the Government and the broader economy. Maintaining credibility in fiscal policy will be key to preventing macroeconomic adjustments from exerting additional pressure on interest rates. International Reserves As of December 31, 2024, Colombia’s net international reserves stood at USD 62,481 million, reflecting an increase of USD 2,873 million during the year. This growth was primarily driven by returns on reserves, which reached 3.65%, benefiting from higher global interest rates, and Banco de la República's reserve accumulation program, which added USD 1,479.4 million to reserves. According to the IMF’s reserve adequacy methodology, Colombia maintains a reserve ratio of 1.29. This falls within the adequate range (1.0 – 1.5), indicating that Colombia’s reserves are sufficient to withstand extreme external shocks and balance of payments risks. Profits obtained by Banco de la República The Bank's profits reached a record COP 10,041 billion in 2024, resulting from revenues of COP 13,948 billion and expenses of COP 3,907 billion. Profits increased by COP 815 billion compared to 2023, primarily due to lower expenses, although partially offset by a decline in revenues. For 2025, profits are projected at COP 10,512 billion, supported by the high expected profitability of foreign reserves. However, this projection is subject to uncertainty related to reserve performance and monetary base growth.

To achieve the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goal 7 “Clean and Affordable Energy”, the most economically viable option for servicing the part of the population that is too remote or for which the national grid extension is too expensive are distributed renewable energy solutions (DREs), that is, standalone solar home systems (SHSs), mini grids, and swarm gridsi. By 2030, more than 290 million people could be connected to mini grids. Following a top-down approach to electricity access, countries of the Global South, with support of international aid and development funding, are accelerating their national grid expansion. As the national grid reaches their customers, the private sector (DRE companies) is put at danger of having to either relocate their assets or abandon them. At the same time, the DRE end-user, reached by the national grid, faces several challenges due to being exposed to a double infrastructure. These challenges can be of technical and financial nature and are caused by the assets becoming abundant or needing additional equipment to be suitable for national grid and DREs. In our new paper we investigate a technically and economically viable solution for the co-existence of the national grid−a centralized infrastructure−with mostly decentralized, renewable energy infrastructure in Global South countries. At the intersection of these two electrification pathways the question arises if the two approaches can be integrated to the benefit of society by maintaining existing assets. We assume the technical link to be a bidirectional inverter and a battery representing the point of common coupling (PCC) between national grid and currently off-grid systems. We then suggest to apply a cost recovery approach to calculate the economic value of a community power purchase agreement (C-PPA) that allows the community to enter into a trade agreement with the national grid to export at a specified rate.

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries