Relevant bibliographies by topics / Global warming; Climate change; Models

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  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Global warming; Climate change; Models'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 11 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

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Hammerle, R. H., J. W. Shiller, and M. J. Schwarz. "Global Climate Change." Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power 113, no. 3 (July 1, 1991): 448–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2906251.

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This paper reviews the validity of the greenhouse warming theory, its possible impact on the automotive industry, and what could be done. Currently there is very limited evidence that man’s activity has caused global warming. Mathematical models of the earth’s heat balance predict warming and associated climate changes, but their predictions have not been validated. Concern over possible warming has led to several evaluations of feasible CO2 control measures. Although cars and trucks contribute only a small fraction of the CO2 buildup, the automotive industry may be expected to reduce its share of the atmospheric CO2 loading if controls become necessary. Methods to reduce automotive CO2 emissions, including alternative fuels such as methanol, natural gas, and electricity, are discussed. Also, control of the other greenhouse gases, which may currently contribute about 45 percent of the greenhouse warming, is considered.
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Revesz, Richard L., Peter H. Howard, Kenneth Arrow, Lawrence H. Goulder, Robert E. Kopp, Michael A. Livermore, Michael Oppenheimer, and Thomas Sterner. "Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change." Nature 508, no. 7495 (April 2014): 173–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/508173a.

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Belda, Michal, Petr Skalák, Aleš Farda, Tomáš Halenka, Michel Déqué, Gabriella Csima, Judit Bartholy, et al. "CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal." Advances in Meteorology 2015 (2015): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/354727.

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Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3°C in the first period and 2 and 5°C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to −1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.
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Drijfhout, Sybren, Sebastian Bathiany, Claudie Beaulieu, Victor Brovkin, Martin Claussen, Chris Huntingford, Marten Scheffer, Giovanni Sgubin, and Didier Swingedouw. "Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 43 (October 12, 2015): E5777—E5786. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1511451112.

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Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.
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Kaiser, Harry M. "Climate Change and Agriculture." Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 20, no. 2 (October 1991): 151–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0899367x0000297x.

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Without a doubt, climate change will be one of the most important environmental topics of the 1990s and will be high on the research agendas of many scientific disciplines in years ahead. While not yet universally accepted, it is now widely believed that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases have the potential to substantially warm climates worldwide. Although there is no consensus on the timing and magnitude of global warming, current climate models predict an average increase of 2.8°C to 5.2°C in the earth's temperature over the next century (Karl, Diaz, and Barnett). Changes in regional temperature and precipitation will likely accompany the global warming, but there is even less scientific agreement on the magnitude of these changes.
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Koerner, Roy M., and Leif Lundgaard. "Glaciers and Global Warming." Géographie physique et Quaternaire 49, no. 3 (November 30, 2007): 429–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/033064ar.

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ABSTRACT Ice core and mass balance studies from glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets constitute an ideal medium for monitoring and studying present and past environmental change and, as such, make a valuable contribution to the present debate over anthropogenic forcing of climate. Data derived from 32 years of measurements in the Canadian Arctic show no significant trends in glacier mass balance, ice melt, or snow accumulation, although the mass balance continues to be slightly negative. Models suggest that industrial aerosol loading of the atmosphere should add to the warming effect of greenhouse gases. However, we have found a sharp increase in the concentration of industrial pollutants in snow deposited since the early 1950's which makes the trendless nature of our various time series surprising. Spatial differences in the nature of climatic change may account for the lack of trend in the Queen Elizabeth Islands but encourages similar investigations to this study elsewhere in the circumpolar region. A global warming trend over the past 150 years has been demonstrated from instrumental data and is evident in our ice cores. However, the ice core data and glacier geometry changes in the Canadian Arctic suggest the Arctic warming is more pronounced in summer than winter. The same warming trend is not unique when viewed in the context of changes over the past 10,000 or 100,000 years. This suggests the 150-year trend is part of the natural climate variability.
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Huntingford, Chris, Mark S. Williamson, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse. "CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming." Climatic Change 162, no. 3 (September 4, 2020): 1515–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5.

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Ollier, Cliff. "Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics." Quaestiones Geographicae 32, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 61–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2013-0008.

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Abstract The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.
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Bounoua, Lahouari, Kurtis Thome, and Joseph Nigro. "Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming." Urban Science 5, no. 1 (March 5, 2021): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/urbansci5010027.

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Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.
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Weller, Gunter. "Detecting Global Change In The Arctic." Annals of Glaciology 14 (1990): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s026030550000940x.

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Numerical models have predicted global temperature increases due to rising atmospheric CO2 levels, which should be detectable by now, but have not yet been identified in an unambiguous manner. This detection is complicated by inadequate data and by the fact that climate can be changed by factors other than CO2 increases. A systematic monitoring strategy is therefore needed to assess global change. In the Arctic, cryospheric parameters, including sea ice, snow cover, glaciers and permafrost are sensitive indicators of climate change and their monitoring by satellites and surface observations is of particular interest. Sea ice and snow cover are perhaps the most important of these parameters. They respond quickly to climate change, and in turn directly affect the climate through feedback processes; major changes in ice and snow extent and thickness can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Glaciers also respond to climatic variability by changes in their mass balance which can be monitored. Melting glaciers raise the level of the world ocean, and the glaciers of the sub-Arctic, particularly in the Alaskan coastal mountains, have been major contributors to the observed sea-level rise of about 20–30 cm over the last century. Past temperature changes are recorded in glacier ice and permafrost and techniques are now available to reconstruct past climates from these sources. The numerical models of the CO2 greenhouse effect show the polar regions to be affected most strongly by greenhouse warming, and sea ice, snow, glaciers and permafrost should be good indicators of such a global change. The known responses and sensitivities of cryospheric parameters to climate change are reviewed, and a monitoring strategy is suggested. The Alaska SAR Facility, utilizing synthetic aperture radar from several spacecraft scheduled for launch in the 1990s, will be a key facility for collecting and analyzing climate-related satellite data. Its monitoring capabilities are briefly reviewed.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

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James, Rachel Anne. "Implications of global warming for African climate." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:5c49af92-1739-422c-b8f2-e4433c792cc6.

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A 2°C increase in global mean temperature (ΔTg) has been widely adopted as a benchmark for dangerous climate change. However, there has been a lack of research into the implications of 2°C, or any other degree of warming, for Africa. In this thesis changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, and beyond are investigated for the first time, using output from 350 climate model experiments: a collection of simulations from international modelling centres (CMIP3), two Perturbed Physics Ensembles (PPEs), and a group of five regional models. The models project temperature and precipitation anomalies which increase in magnitude and spatial extent as global temperature rises, including a wet signal in East Africa, and drier conditions for African rainforests. The models consistently show that the evolution of change with global warming is gradual, even at 4°C and beyond; but the amplitude and direction of precipitation change at each ΔTg increment vary between models and between datasets. The PPEs project precipitation signals which are not represented by CMIP3, in particular a large drying (>0.5 mm day-1 °C-1) of western Africa. There are also important differences between global and regional models, especially in southern and West Africa (>1 mm day-1). Analysis of atmospheric circulation responses suggests that the higher resolution projections are no more credible in this case. Some of the variation between models can be understood as the result of untrustworthy simulations, leading to constraints on the PPEs, and casting doubt on the strong drying of west Sahel; but model evaluation is found to be limited by observations in the case of the Congo Basin. The implications of global warming are different depending on which models are consulted. The findings emphasise that caution should be exercised in the application of climate model data to inform mitigation debates.
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Christidis, Nikolaos. "Halocarbon radiative forcing in radiation and general circulation models." Thesis, University of Reading, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.312563.

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Mitchell, Timothy D. "An investigation of the pattern scaling technique for describing future climates." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.390635.

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Le, Roux Peter Christiaan. "Azorella selago (Apiaceae) as a model for examining climate change effects in the sub-Antarctic." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49868.

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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: There is increasing evidence that the rapid and anomalous changes in climate experienced in the last century have had widespread ecological impacts. Indeed, sub- Antarctic Marion Island has experienced particularly large increases in temperature and declines in rainfall. However, the effects of these changes on the island's extensive fellfield vegetation remain largely unexamined. The aim of this study was to examine the sensitivity of a dominant and keystone fellfield plant species, the cushion-forming Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceae), to changes in climate. Three complementary approaches (two mensurate, one experimental) were used, and all showed that A. selago is likely to change in response to further changes in climate. First, the unimodal age class distribution of A. selago suggested that the species' establishment is episodic, and therefore reliant on specific (possibly climatic) conditions. Azorella selago growth rate was related to environmental factors, suggesting that both the establishment and growth rate of the species is likely to be sensitive to changes in climate. Second, altitudinal variation in A. selago plant attributes suggested that the species' morphology would be responsive to changes in climate (assuming that a spatial gradient in climate is a suitable analogue for similar changes in climate over time). Plant height, leaf size and trichome density differed most consistently over altitude across the island. The altitudinal range of some epiphyte species, as well as the cover and species richness of epiphytes growing on A. selago, also showed consistent patterns along the altitudinal gradient. These cushion plant and epiphyte attributes appeared to be related to climatic factors, and are therefore predicted to change in response to further shifts in climate. Finally, A. selago showed a rapid vegetative response to short-term experimental reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature and shading. Reduced rainfall accelerated autumnal senescence, shortening the species' growing season. Plants were relatively unaffected by the magnitude of warming imposed, although the foliar nutrient concentrations of some elements were higher in warmed plants than in control plants. Experimental shading of A. selago (simulating a predicted indirect effect of climate change: increased cover of the dominant epiphyte species, Agrostis magellanica (Lam.) Vahl (Poaceae)) caused greater stem elongation, and the production of larger, thinner leaves, with lower trichome densities and higher foliar nutrient concentrations of some elements. Given this sensitivity of A. selago to shading, it is possible that changes in epiphyte load could overshadow the direct effects of changes in climate on this species. Ongoing changes in climate are predicted for the next century. Based on the results of this study the following scenarios are proposed. Continued warming and drying of the island will potentially favour the upslope expansion of A. selago (although also shortening its growing season) and decrease the abundance of its dominant epiphyte. Under such a scenario fellfield primary production may decline. In contrast, under warming alone, most epiphyte species could increase in abundance and expand their altitudinal ranges upslope. This would bring about much heavier shading of A. selago plants, leading to a short-term increase in stem growth and leaf nutrient concentrations. However, ultimately a decline in A. selago abundance and production would also be expected if cushion plants experience stem mortality under longer-term shading. Nonetheless, monitoring A. selago leaf size, trichome density and phenology, as well as the altitudinal range of dominant epiphyte species (attributes that this research suggests may be most sensitive to short-term changes in climate), will indicate the biological consequences of these changes in climate. This study, therefore, shows that further climate changes on Marion Island will affect A. selago and its epiphytes, with likely repercussions for fellfield communities.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Daar is toemende bewys dat die vinnige en onreëlmatige veranderinge in klimaat oor die laaste half-eeu wye ekologiese gevolge gehad het. Inderdaad, sub-Antarktiese Marion Eiland het 'n ook 'n besondere groot toename in temperature en daling in reënval ervaar. Nogtans is die gevolge van hierdie veranderinge op die eiland se uitgebreide dorveld (fellfield) plantegroei nog nie nagevors nie. Die doel van hierdie studie was om die sensitiwiteit van 'n dominante hoeksteen spesie, die kussingvormige Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceae), aan veranderinge in klimaat te ondersoek. Drie aanvullende metodes (twee waarnemend, een eksperimenteel) was gebruik, en al drie het aangedui dat A. selago waarskynlik sal reageer op verdere veranderinge in klimaat. Eerstens, die enkelpiek-vormige ouderdomsverspreiding van A. selago dui daarop dat die spesie ongereeld vestig, en is daarom afhanklik van spesifieke (dalk klimatiese) toestande. Verder, was A. selago se groeitempo aan omgewingsfaktore verwant. As gevolg hiervan sal die spesie se vestiging en groeitempo vermoedelik sensitief vir klimaatsveranderinge wees. Tweedens, veranderinge in A. selago eienskappe met 'n toename in hoogte bo seespieël (hoogte) dui daarop dat die spesie se morfologie sal reageer op veranderinge in klimaatstoestande (op voorwaarde dat 'n ruimtelike verandering in klimaat goed ooreenstem met 'n soortgelyke verandering in klimaat oor tyd). Planthoogte, blaaroppervlakte en trigoomdigteid het geleidelik met hoogte verander oor die eiland. Die verspreiding en bedekking van sommige epifitiese spesies, asook epifiet spesie rykheid, was ook aan hoogteverwant. Hierdie verwantskap tussen A. selago (en die epifiete) en hoogte is vermoedelik deur klimatiese faktore veroorsaak, en daarom word voorspel dat dit sal verander soos die klimaat verander. Laastens, het A. selago 'n vinnige vegetatiewe reaksie tot korttermyn eksperimentele vermindering in reënval en toename in temperatuur en beskaduwing gewys. 'n Afname in reënval het blaarveroudering versnel, en dus A. selago se groeiseisoen verkort. Plante het min verander as gevolg van hoër temperature, alhoewel die konsentrasie van sommige plantvoedingstowwe hoër was in blare van verwarmde plante as in die wat gewone temperature ervaar het. Eksperimentele beskaduwing van A. selago (wat 'n verwagde indirek effek van klimaatsverandering naboots, naamlik die toename in bedekking van A. selago deur die dominante epifiet spesie, Agrostis magellanica (Lam.) Vahl (Poaceae)) het stingel groei versnel, en veroorsaak dat groter en dunner blare met laer trigoomdigthede en hoër konsentrasies van sommige plantvoedingstowwe op die plante groei. As gevolg van die sensitiwiteit van A. selago op beskaduwing, is dit moontlik dat die gevolge van veranderinge in die bedekking van epifiete belangriker sal wees as die direkte gevolge van klimaatsverandering. Verdere klimaatsveranderinge word vir die volgende eeu voorspel. Gebasseer op die resultate van hierdie navorsing, word twee moontlike toekomstige omstadighede voorgestel. Toenemende verwarming en verdroging van die eiland sal vermoedelik veroorsaak dat A. selago op hoër hoogtes voorkom (alhoewel die spesie se groeiseisoen ook sal verkort), en dat die volopheid van A. magellanica sal afneem. In so 'n geval sal dorveld se plantproduksie waarskynlik effens verminder. In teenstelling, as die eiland slegs verwarm (sonder 'n verandering in reënval) kan die volopheid en verspreiding van epifiet spesies waarskynlik toeneem. Dit sal vermoedelik tot 'n toename in the verskaduwing van A. selago lei, wat tot 'n kort-termyn verhoging van stingel groeitempo en plantvoedingstof konsentrasies sal lei. Alhoewel, uiteindelik, word 'n vermindering van A. selago volopheid en groei verwag as plantstingels van lang-termyn beskaduwing vrek. Nietemin, as die blaargroote, trigoomdigteid en groeiseisoenlengte van A. selago en die hoogte verspreiding van die dominante epifiet spesie gemonitor word (eienskappe wat deur hierdie studie aangedui is as gevoelig aan kort-termyn veranderinge in klimaat), kan die biologiese gevolge van hierdie klimaatsveranderinge aangewys word. Hierdie navorsing bewys dus dat verdere veranderinge in klimaat op Marion Eiland 'n invloed sal hê op A. selago en geassosieerde epifiete, met moontlike gevolge vir die hele dorveld gemeenskap.
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Yang, Boxuan. "Estimating the Impacts of Climate Changes on Agricultural Productivities in Thailand, Using Simulation Models." Kyoto University, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/235992.

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Zhu, En. "The role of US agricultural and forest activities in global climate change mitigation." [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-1406.

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Hamlet, Alan F. "Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming and climate variability in the western U.S. /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10132.

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Waibel, Michael Scott. "Model Analysis of the Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon." PDXScholar, 2010. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/45.

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Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring in the recharge zone falls as snow. Consequently, the timing of runoff and recharge depend on accumulation and melting of the snowpack. Numerical modeling can provide insights into evolving hydrologic system response for resource management consideration. A daily mass and energy balance model known as the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) was developed for the basin in the 1990s. This model uses spatially distributed data and is driven with daily climate data to calculate both daily and monthly mass and energy balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget across the basin. Previously historical daily climate data from weather stations in the basin was used to drive the model. Now we use the University of Washington Climate Impact Group's 1/16th degree daily downscaled climate data to drive the DPM for forecasting until the end of the 21st century. The downscaled climate data is comprised from the mean of eight GCM simulations well suited to the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, there are low emission and high emission scenarios associated with each ensemble member leading to two distinct means. For the entire basin progressing into the 21st century, output from the DPM using both emission scenarios as a forcing show changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as significant reductions in snowpack. Although the DPM calculated amounts of recharge and runoff varies between the emission scenario of the ensemble under consideration, all model output shows loss of the spring snowmelt runoff / recharge peak as time progresses. The response of the groundwater system to changing in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow paths in the upper part of the basin are potentially more sensitive to the change in seasonality. However, geologic controls on the system cause this signal to attenuate as it propagates into the lower portions of the basin. This scale-dependent variation to the response of the groundwater system to changes in seasonality and magnitude of recharge is explored by applying DPM calculated recharge to an existing regional groundwater flow model.
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Abs, Elsa. "Eco-evolutionary modeling of soil microbial decomposition in a warming climate." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2019. https://theses.md.univ-paris-diderot.fr/ABS_Elsa_2_complete_20190108.pdf.

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L'une des principales sources d'incertitude des projections climatiques globales tient à l’activité microbienne des sols : dans quelle mesure le réchauffement de la planète entraînera-t-il une augmentation des concentrations de CO2 dans l'atmosphère du fait d’une décomposition accrue de la matière organique par les communautés microbiennes des sols ? Mieux évaluer, voire réduire, cette incertitude requiert le développement de modèles mathématiques mécanistes reliant la décomposition à la dynamique des communautés microbiennes et l’intégration de ces modèles dans les simulations globales. Les modèles mathématiques de décomposition de la matière organique du sol représentent explicitement le compartiment microbien et sont donc à même de mettre en relation biomasse microbienne, production d’enzymes de dégradation de la matière organique, stocks de carbone du sol. Formulés dans le contexte du changement climatique, ces modèles se sont concentrés sur les mécanismes physiologiques et écologiques des réponses microbiennes à l’augmentation de la température, ignorant les effets possibles de l'adaptation évolutive. Ma thèse vise à combler cette lacune, en évaluant l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'adaptation évolutive microbienne au réchauffement peut avoir un impact significatif sur le cycle global du carbone. Après avoir passé en revue des modèles de décomposition microbienne mécanistes et non évolutifs, je construis un modèle stochastique spatialement explicite et éco-évolutif, basé sur des processus microscopiques des cellules et des molécules extracellulaires. J'utilise une approximation du modèle (spatialement implicite, déterministe) pour étudier la réponse éco-évolutive au réchauffement d'un système microbe-enzyme du sol, dans trois scénarios possibles d’influence de la température sur l'activité microbienne. En l'absence d'évolution microbienne, le réchauffement entraîne une perte de carbone dans le sol (une accélération du changement climatique) dans tous les scénarios. L'adaptation évolutive microbienne aggrave généralement la perte de carbone du sol dans les écosystèmes froids et peut aggraver, amortir ou même inverser la perte de carbone (et donc augmenter la séquestration du carbone) dans les écosystèmes chauds. En contraignant le modèle avec les observations de cinq biomes distincts je montre que l'aggravation évolutive de la perte de carbone du sol est l’issue la plus probable. Enfin, en intégrant mon modèle éco-évolutif dans une projection globale des stocks de carbone du sol à l'échelle de la Terre, je confirme la prévision d'une aggravation mondiale significative de la perte de carbone dans le sol due à l'évolution microbienne. Les sols dormants, dans lesquels l'activité microbienne est très faible, jouent un rôle particulier dans la dynamique éco-évolutive à long terme du carbone du sol global, car dans ces régions, l'effet négatif de l'évolution sur les stocks de carbone du sol ne se manifesterait pas avant la sortie de la dormance microbienne et pourrait de fait s’en trouvé différé de plusieurs décennies. En conclusion, mes travaux constituent un premier pas vers des modèles de prédiction de la dynamique éco-évolutive du cycle du carbone. Ils ouvrent la voie à un programme de recherche qui testerait de manière empirique les prédictions des modèles sur le rôle des mécanismes évolutifs dans différents types d’écosystèmes terrestres, en exploitant les archives de plus en plus riches de données métagénomiques des sols pour quantifier les variations des fonctions métaboliques microbiennes et leurs réponses à la sélection
One major source of uncertainty in global climate predictions is the extent to which global warming will increase atmospheric CO2 concentrations through enhanced microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. There is therefore a critical need for models that mechanistically link decomposition to the dynamics of microbial communities, and integration of these mechanistic models in global projection models of the Earth system. Mathematical models of soil microbial decomposition models have recently been introduced to predict soil C stocks and heterotrophic soil respiration, especially in the context of climate change. Thus far, models focused on physiological and ecological mechanisms of microbial responses, leaving the role of evolutionary adaptation poorly understood. My thesis addresses this gap and evaluates the hypothesis that microbial evolutionary adaptation to warming can have a significant impact on the global carbon cycle. After reviewing mechanistic, non- evolutionary microbial models of decomposition, I construct an eco-evolutionary spatially explicit, stochastic model, scaling up from microscopic processes acting at the level of cells and extracellular molecules. I use an approximated version of the model (spatially implicit, deterministic) to investigate the eco-evolutionary response of a soil microbe-enzyme system to warming, under three possible scenarios for the influence of temperature on microbial activity. In the absence of microbial evolution, warming results in soil carbon loss to the atmosphere (an amplification of climate change) in all scenarios. Microbial evolutionary adaptation generally aggravates soil carbon loss in cold ecosystems, and may aggravate, buffer or even reverse carbon loss in warm ecosystems. Constraining the model with observations from five contrasting biomes reveals evolutionary aggravation of soil carbon loss to be the most likely outcome. Earth-scale projections of carbon stocks that integrate my eco-evolutionary model support the prediction of a significant global aggravation of soil C loss due to microbial evolution. Dormant soils, in which microbial activity is very low, play a special role in the long-term eco-evolutionary dynamics of global soil carbon, since in these regions, the negative effect of evolution on soil carbon stocks may not kick in until the microbial community shifts from dormant to active, and may thus be delayed by decades. Overall, my work is a first step toward predictive modeling of eco- evolutionary dynamics of carbon cycling; it also lays the ground for a broad future research program that will empirically test model predictions about the role of evolutionary mechanisms in different systems across the globe, by leveraging the growing global archive of soil metagenomics data to quantify variations in microbial metabolic functions and their response to selection. Mots clés en français (10 max) : changement climatique, cycle du carbone, décomposition, projections globales, évolution microbienne, dynamiques adaptatives, rétroaction sol-climat, évolution de la coopération, modèles individu-centrés.Mots clés en anglais : climate change, carbon cycle, decomposition, global predictions, microbial evolution, adaptive dynamics, soil-climate feedbacks, evolution of cooperation, individual-based models
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Vale, Petterson Molina. "Economia das mudanças climáticas = uma avaliação dos principais modelos." [s.n.], 2010. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/286393.

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Orientador: Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T10:48:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vale_PettersonMolina_M.pdf: 3609356 bytes, checksum: 3858cc5c017781eb870d60f9c98e56a8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010
Resumo: A dissertação discute a maneira como o ferramental analítico da economia é aplicado ao estudo das mudanças climáticas. A determinação de quanto, quando e onde investir em mitigação das emissões de gases-estufa, e em adaptação às mudanças inevitáveis que decorrem do aquecimento global, é o papel central dos modelos econômico-climáticos. Trata-se de uma área de pesquisa relativamente nova, mas duas correntes já se delineiam: a gradualista, liderada por William Nordhaus, que adota modelos de otimização para o cálculo de custos e benefícios dos citados investimentos, e propõe uma taxa de mitigação linearmente crescente; e a precaucionista, encabeçada por Nicholas Stern, que utiliza um leque bem mais amplo de instrumentos de decisão, inclusive métodos não quantitativos, e que sugere a aplicação imediata do princípio da precaução. Depois de estudar detidamente os dois enfoques, fazemos uma avaliação crítica com base na literatura especializada, e concluímos que as recomendações divergentes de políticas climáticas de Nordhaus e de Stern decorrem, em primeiro lugar, da maneira como avaliam os resultados dos modelos (regra de decisão), além de decisões éticas quanto ao procedimento de desconto, e das estruturas dos modelos, com destaque para o tratamento da incerteza. Um terceiro fator que pouco os distingue, mas que caracteriza uma crítica mais substancial aos modelos, é o apego ao crescimento econômico com objetivo central da economia. Duas são as novidades do trabalho: uma caracterização das implicações da incerteza irredutível para o estudo das mudanças climáticas; e uma revisão da obra do principal autor da área, William Nordhaus
Abstract: The thesis discusses the way the analytical toolkit of economics is currently applied to the study of climate change. The determination of how much, when and where to invest in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and in adaptation to the inevitable changes that derive from it is the central role of climate-economy models. It is a relatively new area, but two research streams can be identified: the gradualists, leaded by William Nordhaus, who adopt optimization models to calculate costs and benefits of climate investment, and propose a mitigation rate that grows linearly; and the precautionalists, leaded by Sir. Nicholas Stern, who use a much broader set of decision instruments, including non-quantitative methods, and call for the immediate application of the precautionary principle. After studying these two approaches in details, we go on to critically evaluate them based on the specialized literature, and conclude that the diverging policy recommendations of Nordhaus and Stern can be attributed, in the first place, to the way they evaluate the results of the models (decision rule), followed by ethical decisions related to the discounting procedure, and by the structure of the models, particularly the treatment of uncertainty. A third factor that differs very little between them, but makes for a more substantial critique to the models, is the view that economic growth is the only and most desirable goal of economics. The novel contributions of the thesis are twofold: a formalization of the implications of irreducible uncertainty for the economics of climate change; and a review of William Nordhaus' work, the single most important author in the field
Mestrado
Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente
Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico
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Books on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

1

Parson, Edward. Climate treaties and models: Issues in the international management of climate change. Washington, DC: Office of Technology Assessment, 1994.

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Parson, Edward. Climate treaties and models: Issues in the international management of climate change. Washington, DC: The Office, 1994.

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Managing the global commons: The economics of climate change. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1994.

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Investigations, United States Congress House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Oversight and. The U.S. national climate change assessment: Do the climate models project a useful picture of regional climate? : hearing before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, second session, July 25, 2002. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2002.

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Health and climate change: Modelling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion. London: Earthscan Publications, 1998.

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Edwards, Paul N. A vast machine: Computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2010.

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Ashenfelter, Orley. Using a hedonic model of solar radiation to assess the economic effect of climate change: The case of Mosel Valley Vineyards. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Yunitto, Kagaku Gijutsu Shinkō Kikō Kenkyū Kaihatsu Senryaku Sentā Kankyō Gijutsu. Chiiki kankyō seitaikei yosoku moderu no tōgōteki kenkyū: Kikō hendō tekiōsaku ritsuan o mezashite : senryaku puroguramu = Synthetic study on forecast models of regional environment and ecosystems : towards the planning of adaptaion measures for climate change : strategic program. Tōkyō: Kagaku Gijutsu Shinkō Kikō Kenkyū Kaihatsu Senryaku Sentā Kankyō Gijutsu Yunitto, 2010.

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Copeland, Brian Richard. Free trade and global warming: A trade theory view of the Kyoto Protocol. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2000.

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Global weirdness: Severe storms, deadly heat waves, relentless drought, rising seas, and the weather of the future. New York: Pantheon Books, 2012.

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Book chapters on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

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Gettelman, Andrew, and Richard B. Rood. "Climate Change and Global Warming." In Earth Systems Data and Models, 23–35. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-48959-8_3.

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Fallmann, Joachim, Stefan Emeis, Sven Wagner, Christine Ketterer, Andreas Matzarakis, Ilona Krüzselyi, Gabriella Zsebeházi, et al. "Forecasting Models for Urban Warming in Climate Change." In Counteracting Urban Heat Island Effects in a Global Climate Change Scenario, 3–39. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10425-6_1.

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Gbode, Imoleayo E., Vincent O. Ajayi, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi, Jimy Dudhia, and Changhai Liu. "Impacts of Global Warming on West African Monsoon Rainfall." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 2469–83. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_93.

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AbstractThe impacts of global warming on rainfall in West Africa were examined using a numerical framework for 5 monsoon years (2001, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). Rainfall characteristics over the three climatic zones, Guinea coast, Savannah, and Sahel, were analyzed. The potential changes associated with global warming were assessed by the pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling method. Multiple PGW runs were conducted using climate perturbation from the 40-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) coupled with Community Atmospheric Model version 5.2 (CAM5.2) component large ensemble project. The model output was compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Global Precipitation Climatology Project rainfall alongside surface temperature from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis. Results show that the estimated rainfall amount from the future climate in the 2070s increases slightly compared with the current climate. The total rainfall amount simulated for the current climate is 16% and 63% less than that of the PGW runs and observations, respectively. Also found is an increase (decrease) in heavy (light and moderate) rainfall amount in the PGW runs. These results are, however, contingent on the global circulation model (GCM), which provides the boundary conditions of the regional climate model. CESM1.0-CAM5.2, the GCM employed in this study, tends to provide a greater surface temperature change of about 4 °C. This projected temperature change consequently caused the increase in the simulated precipitation in the PGW experiments, thus highlighting the advantage of using the PGW method to estimate the likely difference between the present and future climate with reduced large-scale model differences and computational resources. The findings of this study are, however, useful to inform decision-making in climate-related activities and guide the design of climate change adaptation projects for the West African region.
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Şen, Zekâi, and Ahmet Öztopal. "Turkish Water Foundation Climate Change Downscaling Model Principles." In Causes, Impacts and Solutions to Global Warming, 87–101. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7588-0_5.

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S, Gualdi, Scoccimarro E, Navarra A, and Silvio Gualdi. "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming in a General Circulation Model." In Hurricanes and Climate Change, 287–321. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09410-6_16.

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Oouchi, Kazuyoshi, Masaki Satoh, Yohei Yamada, Hirofumi Tomita, and Wataru Yanase. "Change of Tropical Cyclone and Seasonal Climate State in a Global Warming Experiment with a Global Cloud-System-Resolving Model." In Hurricanes and Climate Change, 25–37. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9510-7_2.

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Quenum, Gandome Mayeul L. D., Nana A. B. Klutse, Eric A. Alamou, Emmanuel A. Lawin, and Philip G. Oguntunde. "Precipitation Variability in West Africa in the Context of Global Warming and Adaptation Recommendations." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1533–54. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_85.

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AbstractIt is commonly accepted that the Earth’s climate is changing and will continue to change in the future. Rising temperatures are one of the direct indicators of global climate change. To investigate how the rising global temperature will affect the spatial pattern of rainfall in West Africa, the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration variables from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the RCP8.5 scenario were driven by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) and analyzed at four specific global warming levels (GWLs) (i.e., 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3.0 °C) above the preindustrial level. This study utilized three indices, the precipitation concentration index (PCI), the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and the precipitation concentration period (PCP) over West Africa to explore the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of precipitation concentrations. Besides, the analysis of the effect of the specified GWLs on the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Consecutive Wet Days (CWD), and frequency of the intense rainfall events allowed to a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in West Africa. Results reveal that, for the projections simulations and at each GWL, the rainfall onset starts one month earlier in the Gulf of Guinea in response to the control period. To encourage adaptation to the various changes in climate in general, and particularly in respect of rainfall, this study proposes several adaptation methods that can be implemented at the local (country) level, as well as some mitigation and adaptation strategies at the regional (West African) level.
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Furuya, Jun, and Shintaro Kobayashi. "Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Product Markets: Stochastic World Food Model Analysis." In Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Climate Change, 19–35. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-99798-6_2.

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Yoshiyama, Kohei. "Model Development to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Total Phosphorus Concentrations in Lakes." In Climatic Change and Global Warming of Inland Waters, 145–54. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118470596.ch9.

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Hosomi, Masaaki, Tetsu Saigusa, Takuya Okubo, and Akihiko Murakami. "Use of a Water Temperature-Ecological Model to Simulate Global Warming Effects on a Lake Ecosystem." In Climate Change and Plants in East Asia, 109–36. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-66899-2_9.

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Conference papers on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

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Stone, Peter H. "Forecast cloudy: The limits of global warming models." In The world at risk: Natural hazards and climate change. AIP, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.43901.

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Croce, Pietro, Paolo Formichi, Filippo Landi, and Francesca Marsili. "Evaluating the effect of climate change on snow load on structures." In IABSE Symposium, Guimarães 2019: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset Management. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.0666.

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<p>As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the estimation of future trends of climatic actions is presented starting from the output of regional climate models and taking into account the uncertainty in the model itself. In particular, the influence of climate change on ground snow loads is discussed in detail and the typical uncertainty range is determined applying an innovative algorithm for weather generation. Considering different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.</p>
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Hirano, Kohin, Tomokazu Murakami, Satoshi Iizuka, Tsuyoshi Nakatani, Shinya Shimokawa, Shintaro Bunya, and Koji Kawasaki. "Prediction of Typhoon Storm Surge Flood in Tokyo Bay Using Unstructured Model ADCIRC Under Global Warming Scenario." In ASME 2014 4th Joint US-European Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting collocated with the ASME 2014 12th International Conference on Nanochannels, Microchannels, and Minichannels. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fedsm2014-21682.

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The possibility of a major typhoon and its likely effects on Tokyo Bay have been estimated using an atmosphere-ocean-wave coupled model for future global climate conditions, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. In addition, the basin- to channel-scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model, Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC), has been used to determine the risk of storm surge flood in coastal areas, particularly on the Koto Delta, where inundations would most likely reach maximum levels during a strong typhoon. The system uses a high-resolution (down to 45 m) representation of regional geometry, bathymetry, and topography and emphasizes the seamless modeling of processes including those of storm surge, stormtide inundation, and river flow. The numerical experiment is validated by comparing the temporal and spatial distribution of water elevation and inundation with results obtained using a one-way coupling model of storm surge and wave activity. The simulation results show that the maximum tide level may exceed 4 m on the north side of Tokyo Bay, and surge-induced floods may extend throughout most of the Koto Delta region. And the validation results indicate that the sea-land interaction and river flows may significantly affect the depth and increase of extent of inland inundation.
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Zapata Posada, Dario, Jaime Hernán Aristizábal Ceballos, Julián Fernando Chaves Agudelo, and Milton Eduardo Pardo Romero. "Approach to Risk Management for the Hydrocarbon-Transport Infrastructure With Regard to Climate Change." In ASME 2015 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipg2015-8544.

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Planet Earth has recently witnessed a change in the behavior of climate variables (including temperature, rainfall, etc.), primarily attributed to global warming. This climate change is a threat that is materializing and has affected elements of the infrastructure, ecosystems, and environmental conditions worldwide, as well as the National Development Plans [“Planes Nacionales de Desarrollo”]. The hydrocarbon-transport infrastructure in Colombia has not escaped the effects of climate variability. Therefore, a strategy must be devised to manage the risk and to adapt these systems in the light of potential harmful effects, and also to supplement or improve the mitigation measures for the effects generated by the oil industry through its operations. Climate disturbances lead to an increase in the likelihood of landslides, wildfires, floods, avalanches, and other natural hazards. The major climate changes that have been identified and that may affect hydrocarbon-transfer systems in Colombia are the following ones: • A gradual increase in temperature. • Changes in the patterns and amounts of rainfall. • A rise in sea level. • An increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. The strategy for adapting the hydrocarbon-transport systems in light of climate change focuses primarily on the following points: 1. Acquiring more knowledge about the climatic changes that are expected to occur in Colombia, including the change in the major climatic variables and their georeferencing. 2. Diagnosing the transport systems and their spatial correlation with future climate scenarios. 3. Identifying the industries or elements of the infrastructure that are most vulnerable to the expected climatic changes. 4. Proposing measures that will add strength and/or resilience, so that the elements of the system can resist the effects of climate change, or overcome them within a short period of time, without affecting the Business. 5. Prioritizing the interventions to be performed at sites that are critical to the Business. 6. Monitoring and tracking the climatic variables in order to adjust the susceptibility models in light of the major impacts (e.g., landslides). The primary goal of this paper is to outline the initiative that has been proposed by the Technical Asset Management Bureau [“Gerencia Técnica de Activos”] (GTA) of Ecopetrol’s Office of the Vice President for Transportation and Logistics [“Vicepresidencia de Transporte y Logística”] (VIT Ecopetrol) in order to adapt the currently operating transport systems so that they can deal with climate change, while ensuring their healthful and safe operation, in compliance with the applicable technical legal requirements. Another goal of this paper is to highlight the advances that have been made by the GTA in the procurement, compilation, analysis, and use of climate information and geotechnical data as basic elements of risk management.
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Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta M., and Odin Gramstad. "Potential Changes in the Joint Probabilistic Description of the North Atlantic Wave Climate." In ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2018-77592.

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Climate changes include natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. The latter is leading to global warming and causes changes in metocean conditions. For most marine structures waves represent the dominant environmental load. Therefore, projections of changes of wave characteristics in the 21st century are crucial with respect to design and marine operations. The study investigates potential changes in simultaneous occurrence of significant wave height and spectral wave period in twelve North Atlantic locations by comparing the past and future wave climate. Two IPCC emission scenarios, with radiative forcing of 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the 21st century, have been selected to project future wave conditions. The third generation (3G) wave model WAM with a resolution of 50 km is used to simulate waves. The model has been forced with winds obtained from six CMIP5 climate models for the historical period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100 for the two emissions scenarios. Wave climate projections obtained from one climate model and one ensemble member are presented herein to indicate potential changes in extreme wave characteristics derived from the long-term joint probabilistic model of significant wave height and spectral wave period. Deviations between the past and future wave climate are shown, given attention to the shape of the joint distribution and wave steepness. Uncertainties associated with the presented results are discussed.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4316be3ef5.

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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9476800645.51196268.

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Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Soza, Elba, and Kathryn Ayres. "Global Warming and Climate Change." In MOL2NET 2018, International Conference on Multidisciplinary Sciences, 4th edition. Basel, Switzerland: MDPI, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/mol2net-04-05474.

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Cammaert, A. B., Jenny Trumars, and Lars Ingolf Eide. "A Probabilistic Approach to Design Ice Loads for an Arctic Jack-Up Drilling Platform." In ASME 2008 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2008-57519.

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The main focus of the paper is to describe a framework for formulating design ice loads for an Arctic drilling platform using probabilistic methods. Particular attention has been paid to the issues of data and model uncertainty and possible effects due to climate change. We apply the methodology to a concept developed by StatoilHydro as a potential configuration for relatively shallow water depths. To minimize and resist ice loads, the concept utilizes a strong central leg and a combined template and platform docking foundation piled to the sea floor. The governing ice loads are due to the action of first-year ice ridges. The ice loads obtained by the probabilistic approach are compared with deterministic model results. A modification of the model is tested for various assumptions related to global warming and its effects on reduced ice coverage and thickness.
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Ekwueme, Daberechi Chikezie. "Footprint of Inexhaustible Energy Usage and Financial Development on Carbon Outrush of Eurasian Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c12.02363.

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Climate change has a menacing influence on the life and health of human beings; and environmental hallmarks for the future cohort. Carbon outrush has been attributed as the fundamental cause of global warming and change in the climate. In the retardation of carbon effusion, reciprocation between financial development and the utilization of clean energy have been revealed by empirical literature to perform a vital function. Thus, this study analyzed the footprint of inexhaustible (clean) energy usage and financial development on CO2 outrush of 10 Eurasian countries utilizing the PMG-ARDL (Pooled Mean Autoregressive distributive lag model) from 1990 to 2017. Yearly Panel data was collected from the 2019 version of the World Development Indicator of the World Bank. The output of the analysis revealed that clean energy has a negative substantial footprint on the CO2 outrush while financial development has a positive substantial footprint on carbon outrush in the Eurasian countries under study. This output implies that the hallmark of the Eurasian countries’ environment has greatly improved by utilizing clean energy and this has enhanced economic buoyancy. Therefore, we recommended that governments and policymakers in Eurasian countries in addition to enhancing the utilization of clean etymology of energy by firms and individual households should expedite the establishment of financial policies and funding that are eco-friendly.
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Reports on the topic "Global warming; Climate change; Models"

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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Fernández-Reyes, R., JL Piñuel-Raigada, and M. Vicente-Mariño. Media coverage of climate change and global warming en El País, El Mundo y La Vanguardia. Revista Latina de Comunicación Social, RLCS, February 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4185/rlcs-2015-1038en.

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Kandlikar, Milind. Reconciling uncertainties in integrated science and policy models: Applications to global climate change. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), December 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/464182.

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Akasha, Heba, Omid Ghaffarpasand, and Francis Pope. Climate Change and Air Pollution. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), January 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.071.

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This rapid literature review explores the interactions between climate change and air pollution, with a focus on human health impacts. In particular, the report explores potential synergies in tackling climate change and air pollution together. The impacts and implications of the transition from a carbon-intensive economy upon air quality and consequently human health are examined. Discussing climate change without air pollution can lead to risks. For example, strategies that focus on electrification and transition to renewable energy achieve maximum health and air quality benefits compared to strategies that focus mainly on combustible renewable fuels (biofuel and biomass) with some electrification. Addressing climate change necessitates a shift towards a new low carbon era. This involves stringent and innovative changes in behaviour, technology, and policy. There are distinct benefits of considering climate change and air pollution together. Many of the processes that cause climate change also cause air pollution, and hence reductions in these processes will generate cleaner air and less global warming. Politically, the consideration of the two issues in tandem can be beneficial because of the time-inconsistency problems of climate change. Air pollution improvements can offer politicians victories, on a useful timescale, to help in their aims of reversing climate change. By coupling air pollution and air pollution agendas together, it will increase the media and political attention both environmental causes receive. Policies should involve the integration of climate change, air quality, and health benefits to create win-win situations. The success of the strategies requires financial and technical capacity building, commitment, transparency, and multidisciplinary collaboration, including governance stakeholders at multiple levels, in both a top-down and bottom-up manner.
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Fernández-Reyes, R., JL Piñuel-Raigada, and JC Águila Coghlan. Contrast of the journalistic coverage of climate change and global warming in Spain and in the international sphere: IV-V IPCC Reports and Bali-Copenhagen-Paris. Revista Latina de Comunicación Social, October 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4185/rlcs-2017-1213en.

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DeLuchi, M. A. Addendum to Emissions of greenhouse gases from the use of transportation fuels and electricity. Effect of 1992 revision of global warming potential (GWP) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/828264.

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Dahl, Kristina, and Rachel Licker. Too Hot to Work: Assessing the Threats Climate Change Poses to Outdoor Workers. Union of Concerned Scientists, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.47923/2021.14236.

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Outdoor workers face severe risks from extreme heat—risks that will increasingly threaten the health and livelihood of tens of millions of outdoor workers in the United States as climate change makes dangerously hot days more frequent and intense. With economic and legal systems that routinely discount their lives and safety, workers who experience heat-related injuries or illnesses on the job have little to no recourse. By midcentury, with no action to reduce global warming emissions, an estimated $37.1 billion in outdoor workers’ earnings would be at risk annually due to extreme heat. Even with bold action to limit emissions, outdoor workers will face severe and rising risks from extreme heat. Policymakers and employers must take actions to protect outdoor workers.
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Brandt, Leslie A., Cait Rottler, Wendy S. Gordon, Stacey L. Clark, Lisa O'Donnell, April Rose, Annamarie Rutledge, and Emily King. Vulnerability of Austin’s urban forest and natural areas: A report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Northern Forests Climate Hub, October 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2020.7204069.ch.

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The trees, developed green spaces, and natural areas within the City of Austin’s 400,882 acres will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the City Austin to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how less common native species, nonnative species, and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening trees and forests in Austin. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, and development. Austin has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since measurements began in 1938 and temperature is expected to increase by 5 to 10°F by the end of this century compared to the most recent 30-year average. Both increases in heavy rain events and severe droughts are projected for the future, and the overall balance of precipitation and temperature may shift Austin’s climate to be more similar to the arid Southwest. Species distribution modeling of native trees suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 14 primarily northern species, and increase for four more southern species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that only 3% of the trees estimated to be present in Austin based on the most recent Urban FIA estimate were considered to have low vulnerability in developed areas. Using a panel of local experts, we also assessed the vulnerability of developed and natural areas. All areas were rated as having moderate to moderate-high vulnerability, but the underlying factors driving that vulnerability differed by natural community and between East and West Austin. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.
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