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1
Hammerle, R. H., J. W. Shiller, and M. J. Schwarz. "Global Climate Change." Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power 113, no. 3 (July 1, 1991): 448–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2906251.
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This paper reviews the validity of the greenhouse warming theory, its possible impact on the automotive industry, and what could be done. Currently there is very limited evidence that man’s activity has caused global warming. Mathematical models of the earth’s heat balance predict warming and associated climate changes, but their predictions have not been validated. Concern over possible warming has led to several evaluations of feasible CO2 control measures. Although cars and trucks contribute only a small fraction of the CO2 buildup, the automotive industry may be expected to reduce its share of the atmospheric CO2 loading if controls become necessary. Methods to reduce automotive CO2 emissions, including alternative fuels such as methanol, natural gas, and electricity, are discussed. Also, control of the other greenhouse gases, which may currently contribute about 45 percent of the greenhouse warming, is considered.
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Revesz, Richard L., Peter H. Howard, Kenneth Arrow, Lawrence H. Goulder, Robert E. Kopp, Michael A. Livermore, Michael Oppenheimer, and Thomas Sterner. "Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change." Nature 508, no. 7495 (April 2014): 173–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/508173a.
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Belda, Michal, Petr Skalák, Aleš Farda, Tomáš Halenka, Michel Déqué, Gabriella Csima, Judit Bartholy, et al. "CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal." Advances in Meteorology 2015 (2015): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/354727.
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Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3°C in the first period and 2 and 5°C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to −1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.
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Drijfhout, Sybren, Sebastian Bathiany, Claudie Beaulieu, Victor Brovkin, Martin Claussen, Chris Huntingford, Marten Scheffer, Giovanni Sgubin, and Didier Swingedouw. "Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 43 (October 12, 2015): E5777—E5786. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1511451112.
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Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.
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Kaiser, Harry M. "Climate Change and Agriculture." Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 20, no. 2 (October 1991): 151–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0899367x0000297x.
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Without a doubt, climate change will be one of the most important environmental topics of the 1990s and will be high on the research agendas of many scientific disciplines in years ahead. While not yet universally accepted, it is now widely believed that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases have the potential to substantially warm climates worldwide. Although there is no consensus on the timing and magnitude of global warming, current climate models predict an average increase of 2.8°C to 5.2°C in the earth's temperature over the next century (Karl, Diaz, and Barnett). Changes in regional temperature and precipitation will likely accompany the global warming, but there is even less scientific agreement on the magnitude of these changes.
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Koerner, Roy M., and Leif Lundgaard. "Glaciers and Global Warming." Géographie physique et Quaternaire 49, no. 3 (November 30, 2007): 429–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/033064ar.
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ABSTRACT Ice core and mass balance studies from glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets constitute an ideal medium for monitoring and studying present and past environmental change and, as such, make a valuable contribution to the present debate over anthropogenic forcing of climate. Data derived from 32 years of measurements in the Canadian Arctic show no significant trends in glacier mass balance, ice melt, or snow accumulation, although the mass balance continues to be slightly negative. Models suggest that industrial aerosol loading of the atmosphere should add to the warming effect of greenhouse gases. However, we have found a sharp increase in the concentration of industrial pollutants in snow deposited since the early 1950's which makes the trendless nature of our various time series surprising. Spatial differences in the nature of climatic change may account for the lack of trend in the Queen Elizabeth Islands but encourages similar investigations to this study elsewhere in the circumpolar region. A global warming trend over the past 150 years has been demonstrated from instrumental data and is evident in our ice cores. However, the ice core data and glacier geometry changes in the Canadian Arctic suggest the Arctic warming is more pronounced in summer than winter. The same warming trend is not unique when viewed in the context of changes over the past 10,000 or 100,000 years. This suggests the 150-year trend is part of the natural climate variability.
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Huntingford, Chris, Mark S. Williamson, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse. "CMIP6 climate models imply high committed warming." Climatic Change 162, no. 3 (September 4, 2020): 1515–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02849-5.
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Ollier, Cliff. "Global Warming and Climate Change: Science and Politics." Quaestiones Geographicae 32, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 61–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2013-0008.
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Abstract The threat of dangerous climate change from anthropogenic global warming has decreased. Global temperature rose from 1975 to 1998, but since then has levelled off. Sea level is now rising at about 1.5mm per year based on tide gauges, and satellite data suggests it may even be falling. Coral islands once allegedly threatened by drowning have actually increased in area. Ice caps cannot possibly slide into the sea (the alarmist model) because they occupy kilometres-deep basins extending below sea level. Deep ice cores show a succession of annual layers of snow accumulation back to 760,000 years and in all that time never melted, despite times when the temperature was higher than it is today. Sea ice shows no change in 30 years in the Arctic. Emphasis on the greenhouse effect stresses radiation and usually leads to neglect of important factors like convection. Water is the main greenhouse gas. The CO2 in the ocean and the atmosphere are in equilibrium: if we could remove CO2 from the atmosphere the ocean would give out more to restore the balance. Increasing CO2 might make the ocean less alkaline but never acid. The sun is now seen as the major control of climate, but not through greenhouse gases. There is a very good correlation of sunspots and climate. Solar cycles provide a basis for prediction. Solar Cycle 24 has started and we can expect serious cooling. Many think that political decisions about climate are based on scientific predictions but what politicians get are projections based on computer models. The UN’s main adviser, the IPCC, uses adjusted data for the input, their models and codes remain secret, and they do not accept responsibility for their projections.
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Bounoua, Lahouari, Kurtis Thome, and Joseph Nigro. "Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming." Urban Science 5, no. 1 (March 5, 2021): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/urbansci5010027.
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Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.
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Weller, Gunter. "Detecting Global Change In The Arctic." Annals of Glaciology 14 (1990): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s026030550000940x.
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Numerical models have predicted global temperature increases due to rising atmospheric CO2 levels, which should be detectable by now, but have not yet been identified in an unambiguous manner. This detection is complicated by inadequate data and by the fact that climate can be changed by factors other than CO2 increases. A systematic monitoring strategy is therefore needed to assess global change. In the Arctic, cryospheric parameters, including sea ice, snow cover, glaciers and permafrost are sensitive indicators of climate change and their monitoring by satellites and surface observations is of particular interest. Sea ice and snow cover are perhaps the most important of these parameters. They respond quickly to climate change, and in turn directly affect the climate through feedback processes; major changes in ice and snow extent and thickness can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Glaciers also respond to climatic variability by changes in their mass balance which can be monitored. Melting glaciers raise the level of the world ocean, and the glaciers of the sub-Arctic, particularly in the Alaskan coastal mountains, have been major contributors to the observed sea-level rise of about 20–30 cm over the last century. Past temperature changes are recorded in glacier ice and permafrost and techniques are now available to reconstruct past climates from these sources. The numerical models of the CO2 greenhouse effect show the polar regions to be affected most strongly by greenhouse warming, and sea ice, snow, glaciers and permafrost should be good indicators of such a global change. The known responses and sensitivities of cryospheric parameters to climate change are reviewed, and a monitoring strategy is suggested. The Alaska SAR Facility, utilizing synthetic aperture radar from several spacecraft scheduled for launch in the 1990s, will be a key facility for collecting and analyzing climate-related satellite data. Its monitoring capabilities are briefly reviewed.
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Weller, Gunter. "Detecting Global Change In The Arctic." Annals of Glaciology 14 (1990): 362. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/s026030550000940x.
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Numerical models have predicted global temperature increases due to rising atmospheric CO2 levels, which should be detectable by now, but have not yet been identified in an unambiguous manner. This detection is complicated by inadequate data and by the fact that climate can be changed by factors other than CO2 increases. A systematic monitoring strategy is therefore needed to assess global change. In the Arctic, cryospheric parameters, including sea ice, snow cover, glaciers and permafrost are sensitive indicators of climate change and their monitoring by satellites and surface observations is of particular interest. Sea ice and snow cover are perhaps the most important of these parameters. They respond quickly to climate change, and in turn directly affect the climate through feedback processes; major changes in ice and snow extent and thickness can be expected as a consequence of climate change. Glaciers also respond to climatic variability by changes in their mass balance which can be monitored. Melting glaciers raise the level of the world ocean, and the glaciers of the sub-Arctic, particularly in the Alaskan coastal mountains, have been major contributors to the observed sea-level rise of about 20–30 cm over the last century. Past temperature changes are recorded in glacier ice and permafrost and techniques are now available to reconstruct past climates from these sources.The numerical models of the CO2 greenhouse effect show the polar regions to be affected most strongly by greenhouse warming, and sea ice, snow, glaciers and permafrost should be good indicators of such a global change. The known responses and sensitivities of cryospheric parameters to climate change are reviewed, and a monitoring strategy is suggested. The Alaska SAR Facility, utilizing synthetic aperture radar from several spacecraft scheduled for launch in the 1990s, will be a key facility for collecting and analyzing climate-related satellite data. Its monitoring capabilities are briefly reviewed.
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Fearnside, Philip Martin. "Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation." Acta Amazonica 39, no. 4 (2009): 1003–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0044-59672009000400030.
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Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.
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Wang, Ruifang, Liguang Wu, and Chao Wang. "Typhoon Track Changes Associated with Global Warming." Journal of Climate 24, no. 14 (July 15, 2011): 3748–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00074.1.
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Abstract Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) influence in the subtropical East Asia and decreasing TC activity in the South China Sea over the past few decades have been researched in previous studies. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of observational data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change simulations in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that the observed TC track changes are linked to the leading SVD mode of global sea surface temperature (SST) warming and the associated changes in large-scale steering flows. The selected five IPCC models can generally simulate the leading mode in their ensemble control run and prediction, suggesting the possible persistence of the reported track changes by 2040.
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Bonebrake, Timothy C., Carol L. Boggs, Jeannie A. Stamberger, Curtis A. Deutsch, and Paul R. Ehrlich. "From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1793 (October 22, 2014): 20141264. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1264.
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Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia , to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.
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Miller, Alan. "Climate: Economic Models and Policy on Global Warming." Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 33, no. 6 (August 1991): 3–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1991.9931400.
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Stott, Peter A., Gareth S. Jones, Jason A. Lowe, Peter Thorne, Chris Durman, Timothy C. Johns, and Jean-Claude Thelen. "Transient Climate Simulations with the HadGEM1 Climate Model: Causes of Past Warming and Future Climate Change." Journal of Climate 19, no. 12 (June 15, 2006): 2763–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3731.1.
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Abstract The ability of climate models to simulate large-scale temperature changes during the twentieth century when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings and their inability to account for warming over the last 50 yr when they exclude increasing greenhouse gas concentrations has been used as evidence for an anthropogenic influence on global warming. One criticism of the models used in many of these studies is that they exclude some forcings of potential importance, notably from fossil fuel black carbon, biomass smoke, and land use changes. Herein transient simulations with a new model, the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1), are described, which include these forcings in addition to other anthropogenic and natural forcings, and a fully interactive treatment of atmospheric sulfur and its effects on clouds. These new simulations support previous work by showing that there was a significant anthropogenic influence on near-surface temperature change over the last century. They demonstrate that black carbon and land use changes are relatively unimportant for explaining global mean near-surface temperature changes. The pattern of warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere that has been observed in radiosonde data since 1958 can only be reproduced when the model includes anthropogenic forcings. However, there are some discrepancies between the model simulations and radiosonde data, which are largest where observational uncertainty is greatest in the Tropics and high latitudes. Predictions of future warming have also been made using the new model. Twenty-first-century warming rates, following policy-relevant emissions scenarios, are slightly greater in HadGEM1 than in the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) as a result of the extra forcing in HadGEM1. An experiment in which greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings are stabilized at 2100 levels and held constant until 2200 predicts a committed twenty-second-century warming of less than 1 K, whose spatial distribution resembles that of warming during the twenty-first century, implying that the local feedbacks that determine the pattern of warming do not change significantly.
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Ihara, Chie, Yochanan Kushnir, Mark A. Cane, and Victor H. de la Peña. "Climate Change over the Equatorial Indo-Pacific in Global Warming*." Journal of Climate 22, no. 10 (May 15, 2009): 2678–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2581.1.
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Abstract The response of the equatorial Indian Ocean climate to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. In all of the analyzed climate models, the SSTs in the western equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming; the mean SST gradient across the equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously positive to the west in a warmer twenty-first-century climate compared to the twentieth-century climate, and it is dynamically consistent with the anomalous westward zonal wind stress and anomalous positive zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient to the east at the equator. This change in the zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Indian Ocean is detected even in the lowest-emission scenario, and the size of the change is not necessarily larger in the higher-emission scenario. With respect to the change over the equatorial Pacific in climate projections, the subsurface central Pacific displays the strongest cooling or weakest warming around the thermocline depth compared to that above and below in all of the climate models, whereas changes in the zonal SST gradient and zonal wind stress around the equator are model dependent and not straightforward.
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Emanuel, Kerry. "Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage." Weather, Climate, and Society 3, no. 4 (October 1, 2011): 261–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-11-00007.1.
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Abstract While many studies of the effects of global warming on hurricanes predict an increase in various metrics of Atlantic basin-wide activity, it is less clear that this signal will emerge from background noise in measures of hurricane damage, which depend largely on rare, high-intensity landfalling events and are thus highly volatile compared to basin-wide storm metrics. Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large-scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models, 1000 artificial 100-yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b. These synthetic hurricanes damage a portfolio of insured property according to an aggregate wind-damage function; damage from flooding is not considered here. Assuming that the hurricane climate changes linearly with time, a 1000-member ensemble of time series of property damage was created. Three of the four climate models used produce increasing damage with time, with the global warming signal emerging on time scales of 40, 113, and 170 yr, respectively. It is pointed out, however, that probabilities of damage increase significantly well before such emergence time scales and it is shown that probability density distributions of aggregate damage become appreciably separated from those of the control climate on time scales as short as 25 yr. For the fourth climate model, damages decrease with time, but the signal is weak.
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Masson, Valéry, Aude Lemonsu, Julia Hidalgo, and James Voogt. "Urban Climates and Climate Change." Annual Review of Environment and Resources 45, no. 1 (October 17, 2020): 411–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012320-083623.
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Cities are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather episodes, which are expected to increase with climate change. Cities also influence their own local climate, for example, through the relative warming known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This review discusses urban climate features (even in complex terrain) and processes. We then present state-of-the-art methodologies on the generalization of a common urban neighborhood classification for UHI studies, as well as recent developments in observation systems and crowdsourcing approaches. We discuss new modeling paradigms pertinent to climate impact studies, with a focus on building energetics and urban vegetation. In combination with regional climate modeling, new methods benefit the variety of climate scenarios and models to provide pertinent information at urban scale. Finally, this article presents how recent research in urban climatology contributes to the global agenda on cities and climate change.
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Held, Isaac M., and Brian J. Soden. "Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming." Journal of Climate 19, no. 21 (November 1, 2006): 5686–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3990.1.
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Abstract Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.
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Stott, Peter A., John F. B. Mitchell, Myles R. Allen, Thomas L. Delworth, Jonathan M. Gregory, Gerald A. Meehl, and Benjamin D. Santer. "Observational Constraints on Past Attributable Warming and Predictions of Future Global Warming." Journal of Climate 19, no. 13 (July 1, 2006): 3055–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3802.1.
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Abstract This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much (or too little) greenhouse warming by too much (or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater (at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr−1 increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century−1 (5–95 percentiles).
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Ostberg, S., W. Lucht, S. Schaphoff, and D. Gerten. "Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems." Earth System Dynamics 4, no. 2 (October 8, 2013): 347–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013.
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Abstract. Globally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.
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Andrews, Timothy, Jonathan M. Gregory, and Mark J. Webb. "The Dependence of Radiative Forcing and Feedback on Evolving Patterns of Surface Temperature Change in Climate Models." Journal of Climate 28, no. 4 (February 11, 2015): 1630–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00545.1.
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Abstract Experiments with CO2 instantaneously quadrupled and then held constant are used to show that the relationship between the global-mean net heat input to the climate system and the global-mean surface air temperature change is nonlinear in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). The nonlinearity is shown to arise from a change in strength of climate feedbacks driven by an evolving pattern of surface warming. In 23 out of the 27 AOGCMs examined, the climate feedback parameter becomes significantly (95% confidence) less negative (i.e., the effective climate sensitivity increases) as time passes. Cloud feedback parameters show the largest changes. In the AOGCM mean, approximately 60% of the change in feedback parameter comes from the tropics (30°N–30°S). An important region involved is the tropical Pacific, where the surface warming intensifies in the east after a few decades. The dependence of climate feedbacks on an evolving pattern of surface warming is confirmed using the HadGEM2 and HadCM3 atmosphere GCMs (AGCMs). With monthly evolving sea surface temperatures and sea ice prescribed from its AOGCM counterpart, each AGCM reproduces the time-varying feedbacks, but when a fixed pattern of warming is prescribed the radiative response is linear with global temperature change or nearly so. It is also demonstrated that the regression and fixed-SST methods for evaluating effective radiative forcing are in principle different, because rapid SST adjustment when CO2 is changed can produce a pattern of surface temperature change with zero global mean but nonzero change in net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (~−0.5 W m−2 in HadCM3).
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Zharikov, M. "The Economic Theory Behind the Global Climate Change." Review of Business and Economics Studies 8, no. 4 (March 2, 2021): 33–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2308-944x-2020-8-4-33-43.
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This article touches on several polarising subjects in the world environmental crisis. The author attempts to classify the main ideas that can have the same venomous level of disagreements, such as the issue of climate change or global warming. The argument is supported by a healthy majority of people who work in the field with a vocal minority of dissenters as well. The article starts with models about economic growth and the energy industry and how those interact to produce carbon emissions. The author tries to analyse models of how carbon emissions affect climate. Finally, the article outlays the models of how climate affects economic output and health projecting into the future. The research concludes by adding some additional models of how policy changes might affect all of this.
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Stowasser, Markus, Kevin Hamilton, and George J. Boer. "Local and Global Climate Feedbacks in Models with Differing Climate Sensitivities." Journal of Climate 19, no. 2 (January 15, 2006): 193–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3613.1.
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Abstract The climatic response to a 5% increase in solar constant is analyzed in three coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation models, the NCAR Climate System Model version 1 (CSM1), the Community Climate System Model version 2 (CCSM2), and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 (CGCM3). For this simple perturbation the quantitative values of the radiative climate forcing at the top of the atmosphere can be determined very accurately simply from a knowledge of the shortwave fluxes in the control run. The climate sensitivity and the geographical pattern of climate feedbacks, and of the shortwave, longwave, clear-sky, and cloud components in each model, are diagnosed as the climate evolves. After a period of adjustment of a few years, both the magnitude and pattern of the feedbacks become reasonably stable with time, implying that they may be accurately determined from relatively short integrations. The global-mean forcing at the top of the atmosphere due to the solar constant change is almost identical in the three models. The exact value of the forcing in each case is compared with that inferred by regressing annual-mean top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance against mean surface temperature change. This regression approach yields a value close to the directly diagnosed forcing for the CCCma model, but a value only within about 25% of the directly diagnosed forcing for the two NCAR models. These results indicate that this regression approach may have some practical limitation in its application, at least for some models. The global climate sensitivities differ among the models by almost a factor of 2, and, despite an overall apparent similarity, the spatial patterns of the climate feedbacks are only modestly correlated among the three models. An exception is the clear-sky shortwave feedback, which agrees well in both magnitude and spatial pattern among the models. The biggest discrepancies are in the shortwave cloud feedback, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions where it is strongly negative in the NCAR models but weakly positive in the CCCma model. Almost all of the difference in the global-mean total feedback (and climate sensitivity) among the models is attributable to the shortwave cloud feedback component. All three models exhibit a region of positive feedback in the equatorial Pacific, which is surrounded by broad areas of negative feedback. These positive feedback regions appear to be associated with a local maximum of the surface warming. However, the models differ in the zonal structure of this surface warming, which ranges from a mean El Niño–like warming in the eastern Pacific in the CCCma model to a far-western Pacific maximum of warming in the NCAR CCSM2 model. A separate simulation with the CCSM2 model, in which these tropical Pacific zonal gradients of surface warming are artificially suppressed, shows no region of positive radiative feedback in the tropical Pacific. However, the global-mean feedback is only modestly changed in this constrained run, suggesting that the processes that produce the positive feedback in the tropical Pacific region may not contribute importantly to global-mean feedback and climate sensitivity.
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Lane, Jan-Erik. "Is Global Warming All about Technological Issues?" World Journal of Social Science Research 3, no. 4 (October 21, 2016): 495. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/wjssr.v3n4p495.
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<p><em>When the COP21 project is analysed with economic and social science models, then one arrives at profound pessimism about the prospects of implementation success. The basic Wildavsky gulf between policy promises and real life implementation outcomes is bound to plague the efforts at coordination to halt the climate change process. The natural sciences have dominated the global warming debate, but it is time to start examining the problematic of delivering great transformation of energy systems to stem the anthropogenic causes of global warming through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). The erection of the Super Fund is a necessity for avoiding decision paradoxes like PD games, sub-optimisation and second best solutions. Without massive financial assistance, there will occur widespread reneging on the COP21 objectives (Goal I-III). The system of United Nations Climate Change Conferences, yearly conferences held in the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), does not offer an organization that is up to the coordination tasks involved in halting climate change.</em></p>
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Carvalho, Bruno Moreira de, Leticia Palazzi Perez, Beatriz Fatima Alves de Oliveira, Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson, Marco Aurélio Horta, Andrea Sobral, and Sandra de Souza Hacon. "Vector-borne diseases in Brazil: climate change and future warming scenarios." Sustentabilidade em Debate 11, no. 3 (December 31, 2020): 361–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.18472/sustdeb.v11n3.2020.33985.
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Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
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Carvalho, Bruno Moreira de, Leticia Palazzi Perez, Beatriz Fatima Alves de Oliveira, Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson, Marco Aurélio Horta, Andrea Sobral, and Sandra de Souza Hacon. "Vector-borne diseases in Brazil: climate change and future warming scenarios." Sustentabilidade em Debate 11, no. 3 (December 31, 2020): 361–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.18472/sustdeb.v11n3.2020.33985.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.
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Scheff, Jacob, and Dargan M. W. Frierson. "Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming." Journal of Climate 27, no. 4 (February 10, 2014): 1539–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00233.1.
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Abstract Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate—of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and “business as usual” future Penman–Monteith PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 13 modern global climate models. The percentage change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET percentage change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor deficit and increasing Clausius–Clapeyron slope). This direct-warming term accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5%–6% °C−1 (related to the Clausius–Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the intermodel spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET percentage change fields.
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Kim, Jeong-Bae, and Deg-Hyo Bae. "Intensification characteristics of hydroclimatic extremes in the Asian monsoon region under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 12 (December 7, 2020): 5799–820. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5799-2020.
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Abstract. Understanding the influence of global warming on regional hydroclimatic extremes is challenging. To reduce the potential risk of extremes under future climate states, assessing the change in extreme climate events is important, especially in Asia, due to spatial variability of climate and its seasonal variability. Here, the changes in hydroclimatic extremes are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C above preindustrial levels based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Analyses of the subregions classified using regional climate characteristics are performed based on the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of five bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs). For runoff extremes, the hydrologic responses to 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming targets are simulated based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. Changes in temperature extremes show increasing warm extremes and decreasing cold extremes in all climate zones with strong robustness under global warming conditions. However, the hottest extreme temperatures occur more frequently in low-latitude regions with tropical climates. Changes in mean annual precipitation and mean annual runoff and low-runoff extremes represent the large spatial variations with weak robustness based on intermodel agreements. Global warming is expected to consistently intensify maximum extreme precipitation events (usually exceeding a 10 % increase in intensity under 2.0 ∘C of warming) in all climate zones. The precipitation change patterns directly contribute to the spatial extent and magnitude of the high-runoff extremes. Regardless of regional climate characteristics and RCPs, this behavior is expected to be enhanced under the 2.0 ∘C (compared with the 1.5 ∘C) warming scenario and increase the likelihood of flood risk (up to 10 %). More importantly, an extra 0.5 ∘C of global warming under two RCPs will amplify the change in hydroclimatic extremes on temperature, precipitation, and runoff with strong robustness, especially in cold (and polar) climate zones. The results of this study clearly show the consistent changes in regional hydroclimatic extremes related to temperature and high precipitation and suggest that hydroclimatic sensitivities can differ based on regional climate characteristics and type of extreme variables under warmer conditions over Asia.
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Nolan, Connor, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Judy R. M. Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, Heather A. Binney, Simon Brewer, et al. "Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change." Science 361, no. 6405 (August 30, 2018): 920–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aan5360.
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Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
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Lioubimtseva, Elena. "Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 28, no. 4 (December 2004): 502–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0309133304pp422oa.
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Arid regions are expected to undergo significant changes under a scenario of climate warming, but there is considerable variability and uncertainty in these estimates between different scenarios. The complexities of precipitation changes, vegetation-climate feedbacks and direct physiological effects of CO2 on vegetation present particular challenges for climate change modelling of arid regions. Great uncertainties exist in the prediction of arid ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 and global warming. Palaeodata provide important information about the past frequency, intensity and subregional patterns of change in the world’s deserts that cannot always be captured by the climatic models. However, it is important to bear in mind that the global mechanisms of Quaternary climatic variability were different from present-day trends, and any direct analogies between the past and present should be treated with great caution. Although palaeodata provide valuable information about possible past changes in the vegetation-climate system, it is unlikely that the history of the world’s deserts is a key for their future.
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Richardson, Anthony J. "In hot water: zooplankton and climate change." ICES Journal of Marine Science 65, no. 3 (March 11, 2008): 279–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsn028.
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Abstract Richardson, A. J. 2008. In hot water: zooplankton and climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 279–295. An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.
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Macadam, I., DP Rowell, and H. Steptoe. "Refining projections of future temperature change in West Africa." Climate Research 82 (October 8, 2020): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01618.
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Future warming in West Africa will have a detrimental effect on the communities living there. To support assessments of climate change impacts, we propose a method for refining regional temperature projections and demonstrate its application to West Africa for the mid-21st century. Our focus is on characterising uncertainty more comprehensively by considering projections of global warming. We calculate a transformation between a frequency distribution of global warming values derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models and a broader published probability distribution of global warming developed by the Met Office. The latter draws on perturbed parameter ensembles of simpler climate models to account for uncertainties related to the atmosphere, ocean, carbon cycle and aerosol processes that are not well characterised by the CMIP5 ensemble. Noting that West African warming is highly correlated with global warming in the CMIP5 ensemble, and that a significant portion of the uncertainty in projected West African warming arises from the uncertainty in global warming, we then apply the same transformation to CMIP5-derived distributions for warming in different regions of West Africa. The resultant regional warming distributions have longer tails than distributions estimated directly from the CMIP5 ensemble. Our results imply that CMIP5-based assessments of temperature-sensitive applications may underestimate the probability of large (and small) impacts. Our method could be used to refine temperature projections for other regions of the world in which regional temperature changes are highly correlated with global mean temperature changes.
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Beltaos, Spyros, and Brian C. Burrell. "Climatic change and river ice breakup." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 30, no. 1 (February 1, 2003): 145–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l02-042.
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The flow hydrograph, thickness of the winter ice cover, and stream morphology are three climate-influenced factors that govern river ice processes in general and ice breakup and jamming in particular. Considerable warming and changes in precipitation patterns, as predicted by general circulation models (GCMs) for various increased greenhouse-gas scenarios, would affect the length and duration of the ice season and the timing and severity of ice breakup. Climate-induced changes to river ice processes and the associated hydrologic regimes can produce physical, biological, and socioeconomic effects. Current knowledge of climatic impacts on the ice breakup regime of rivers and the future effects of a changing climate are discussed.Key words: breakup, climate change, global warming, greenhouse effect, hydrology, ice, ice jam, impacts, prediction, river ice.
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Gomez Diaz, Jesus David, Alejandro I. Monterroso, Patricia Ruiz, Lizeth M. Lechuga, Ana Cecilia Conde Álvarez, and Carlos Asensio. "Soil moisture regimes in Mexico in a global 1.5°C warming scenario." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 11, no. 4 (August 19, 2019): 465–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-08-2018-0062.
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Purpose This study aims to present the climate change effect on soil moisture regimes in Mexico in a global 1.5°C warming scenario. Design/methodology/approach The soil moisture regimes were determined using the Newhall simulation model with the database of mean monthly precipitation and temperature at a scale of 1: 250,000 for the current scenario and with the climate change scenarios associated with a mean global temperature increase of 1.5°C, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 and three general models of atmospheric circulation, namely, GFDL, HADGEM and MPI. The different vegetation types of the country were related to the soil moisture regimes for current conditions and for climate change. Findings According to the HADGEM and MPI models, almost the entire country is predicted to undergo a considerable increase in soil moisture deficit, and part of the areas of each moisture regime will shift to the next drier regime. The GFDL model also predicts this trend but at smaller proportions. Originality/value The changes in soil moisture at the regional scale that reveal the impacts of climate change and indicate where these changes will occur are important elements of the knowledge concerning the vulnerability of soils to climate change. New cartography is available in Mexico.
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Liggins, Felicity, Richard A. Betts, and Bill McGuire. "Projected future climate changes in the context of geological and geomorphological hazards." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 368, no. 1919 (May 28, 2010): 2347–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0072.
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On palaeoclimate time scales, enhanced levels of geological and geomorphological activity have been linked to climatic factors, including examples of processes that are expected to be important in current and future anthropogenic climate change. Planetary warming leading to increased rainfall, ice-mass loss and rising sea levels is potentially relevant to geospheric responses in many geologically diverse regions. Anthropogenic climate change, therefore, has the potential to alter the risk of geological and geomorphological hazards through the twenty-first century and beyond. Here, we review climate change projections from both global and regional climate models in the context of geohazards. In assessing the potential for geospheric responses to climate change, it appears prudent to consider regional levels of warming of 2°C above average pre-industrial temperature as being potentially unavoidable as an influence on processes requiring a human adaptation response within this century. At the other end of the scale when considering changes that could be avoided by reduction of emissions, scenarios of unmitigated warming exceeding 4°C in the global average include much greater local warming in some regions. However, considerable further work is required to better understand the uncertainties associated with these projections, uncertainties inherent not only in the climate modelling but also in the linkages between climate change and geospheric responses.
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Hänninen, Heikki, Pasi Kolari, and Pertti Hari. "Seasonal development of Scots pine under climatic warming: effects on photosynthetic production." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35, no. 9 (September 1, 2005): 2092–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x05-105.
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In boreal conditions under climatic warming, photosynthesis will start earlier in the spring than it does in the present climate. As a first approximation this phenomenon would increase the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers, as they can use the high amounts of incoming solar radiation prevailing during spring to a greater extent than in the present climate. However, the recovery of photosynthesis is accompanied by a simultaneous dehardening of the needles. Thus, climatic warming may also cause a premature dehardening of the needles during spring. This may result in needle losses caused by frost damage; so climatic warming may also decrease the annual photosynthetic production of boreal conifers. Using computer simulations with ecophysiological models, these counteracting effects of climatic warming on photosynthetic production were studied in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees growing in southern Finland. The results show that because of our insufficient understanding of the environmental regulation of frost hardiness, it is not possible to conclude which one of the two potential effects will dominate under climatic warming. This finding calls for further empirical development and testing of the frost hardiness models.
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Stagner, Jacqueline. "Beyond global warming: how numerical models revealed the secrets of climate change." International Journal of Environmental Studies 78, no. 5 (March 30, 2021): 886. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2021.1905289.
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Sanderson, M. G., D. L. Hemming, and R. A. Betts. "Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4 ° C) global warming." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, no. 1934 (January 13, 2011): 85–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0283.
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Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as ‘high-end’ (those projecting 4 ° C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and ‘non-high-end’ simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.
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Kim, Jeong-Bae, Jae-Min So, and Deg-Hyo Bae. "Global Warming Impacts on Severe Drought Characteristics in Asia Monsoon Region." Water 12, no. 5 (May 12, 2020): 1360. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12051360.
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Climate change influences the changes in drought features. This study assesses the changes in severe drought characteristics over the Asian monsoon region responding to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global average temperature increases above preindustrial levels. Based on the selected 5 global climate models, the drought characteristics are analyzed according to different regional climate zones using the standardized precipitation index. Under global warming, the severity and frequency of severe drought (i.e., SPI <−1.5) are modulated by the changes in seasonal and regional precipitation features regardless of the region. Due to the different regional change trends, global warming is likely to aggravate (or alleviate) severe drought in warm (or dry/cold) climate zones. For seasonal analysis, the ranges of changes in drought severity (and frequency) are −11.5%~6.1% (and −57.1%~23.2%) under 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming compared to reference condition. The significant decreases in drought frequency are indicated in all climate zones due to the increasing precipitation tendency. In general, drought features under global warming closely tend to be affected by the changes in the amount of precipitation as well as the changes in dry spell length. As the warming enhanced, the spatial variation of drought severity will be increased across climate zones, which can lead to increased water stress over Asia. This study demonstrates that precipitation characteristic changes can explicitly modulate severe regional drought features.
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Zheng, Xiao-Tong. "Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and Uncertainty Across Model Projections." Current Climate Change Reports 5, no. 4 (November 25, 2019): 308–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00152-9.
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Abstract Purpose of Review Understanding the changes in climate variability in a warming climate is crucial for reliable projections of future climate change. This article reviews the recent progress in studies of how climate modes in the Indo-Pacific respond to greenhouse warming, including the consensus and uncertainty across climate models. Recent Findings Recent studies revealed a range of robust changes in the properties of climate modes, often associated with the mean state changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific. In particular, the intermodel diversity in the ocean warming pattern is a prominent source of uncertainty in mode changes. The internal variability also plays an important role in projected changes in climate modes. Summary Model biases and intermodel variability remain major challenges for reducing uncertainty in projecting climate mode changes in warming climate. Improved models and research linking simulated present-day climate and future changes are essential for reliable projections of climate mode changes. In addition, large ensembles should be used for each model to reduce the uncertainty from internal variability and isolate the forced response to global warming.
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Dairaku, Koji, Seita Emori, and Hironori Higashi. "Potential Changes in Extreme Events Under Global Climate Change." Journal of Disaster Research 3, no. 1 (February 1, 2008): 39–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2008.p0039.
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Climate-related disasters are a serious problem in Asia. Advances in the understanding of meteorology and in the development of monitoring and forecasting systems have enhanced early warning systems, contributing immensely to reducing fatalities resulting from typhoons, cyclones, and floods. The frequency of extreme events causing water-related disasters has increased, however, over the last decade and may grow in the future due to anthropogenic activity. The sections that follow introduce two recent efforts in hydrologic projection in Asia. Time-slice ensemble experiments using a high-resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on the earth simulator revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggest increases in mean and extreme precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. increases generally attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content. a thermodynamic change. Dynamic changes limit the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arises from dynamic rather than thermodynamic changes. The impact of global warming on heavy precipitation features and flood risks in the Tama River basin in Japan is addressed using 12 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs). Multi-model ensemble average 200-year quantiles in Tokyo from 2050 to 2300 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario climate conditions were 1.07-1.20 times greater than that under present climate conditions. A 200-year quantile extreme event in the present occurs in much shorter return periods in the A1B scenario. High-water discharge in the basin rose by 10%-26% and flood volume increased by 46%-131% for precipitation in a 200-year return period. The risk of flooding in the basin is thus, even though the increase of extreme precipitation is not substantial, projected to be much higher than that presently estimated.
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Vecchi, Gabriel A., and Brian J. Soden. "Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4316–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4258.1.
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Abstract This study examines the response of the tropical atmospheric and oceanic circulation to increasing greenhouse gases using a coordinated set of twenty-first-century climate model experiments performed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The strength of the atmospheric overturning circulation decreases as the climate warms in all IPCC AR4 models, in a manner consistent with the thermodynamic scaling arguments of Held and Soden. The weakening occurs preferentially in the zonally asymmetric (i.e., Walker) rather than zonal-mean (i.e., Hadley) component of the tropical circulation and is shown to induce substantial changes to the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical oceans. Evidence suggests that the overall circulation weakens by decreasing the frequency of strong updrafts and increasing the frequency of weak updrafts, although the robustness of this behavior across all models cannot be confirmed because of the lack of data. As the climate warms, changes in both the atmospheric and ocean circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean resemble “El Niño–like” conditions; however, the mechanisms are shown to be distinct from those of El Niño and are reproduced in both mixed layer and full ocean dynamics coupled climate models. The character of the Indian Ocean response to global warming resembles that of Indian Ocean dipole mode events. The consensus of model results presented here is also consistent with recently detected changes in sea level pressure since the mid–nineteenth century.
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Goldberg, Matthew H., Sander van der Linden, Matthew T. Ballew, Seth A. Rosenthal, Abel Gustafson, and Anthony Leiserowitz. "The Experience of Consensus: Video as an Effective Medium to Communicate Scientific Agreement on Climate Change." Science Communication 41, no. 5 (September 10, 2019): 659–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1075547019874361.
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Research on the gateway belief model indicates that communicating the scientific consensus on global warming acts as a “gateway” to other beliefs and support for action. We test whether a video conveying the scientific consensus on global warming is more effective than a text transcript with the same information. Results show that the video was significantly more effective than the transcript in increasing people’s perception of scientific agreement. Structural equation models indicate indirect increases in the beliefs that global warming is happening and is human-caused, and in worry about global warming, which in turn predict increased global warming issue priority.
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Gnanadesikan, A., J. L. Russell, and F. Zeng. "How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?" Ocean Science Discussions 3, no. 4 (July 11, 2006): 805–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/osd-3-805-2006.
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Abstract. Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that a decrease in upwelling of old water from below is responsible for the change. Implications for global biological cycling are considered.
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Stephens, Graeme L., and Todd D. Ellis. "Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments." Journal of Climate 21, no. 23 (December 1, 2008): 6141–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2144.1.
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Abstract This paper examines the controls on global precipitation that are evident in the transient experiments conducted using coupled climate models collected for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The change in precipitation, water vapor, clouds, and radiative heating of the atmosphere evident in the 1% increase in carbon dioxide until doubled (1pctto2x) scenario is examined. As noted in other studies, the ensemble-mean changes in water vapor as carbon dioxide is doubled occur at a rate similar to that predicted by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. The ratio of global changes in precipitation to global changes in water vapor offers some insight on how readily increased water vapor is converted into precipitation in modeled climate change. This ratio ɛ is introduced in this paper as a gross indicator of the global precipitation efficiency under global warming. The main findings of this paper are threefold. First, increases in the global precipitation track increase atmospheric radiative energy loss and the ratio of precipitation sensitivity to water vapor sensitivity is primarily determined by changes to this atmospheric column energy loss. A reference limit to this ratio is introduced as the rate at which the emission of radiation from the clear-sky atmosphere increases as water vapor increases. It is shown that the derived efficiency based on the simple ratio of precipitation to water vapor sensitivities of models in fact closely matches the sensitivity derived from simple energy balance arguments involving changes to water vapor emission alone. Second, although the rate of increase of clear-sky emission is the dominant factor in the change to the energy balance of the atmosphere, there are two important and offsetting processes that contribute to ɛ in the model simulations studied: One involves a negative feedback through cloud radiative heating that acts to reduce the efficiency; the other is the global reduction in sensible heating that counteracts the effects of the cloud feedback and increases the efficiency. These counteracting feedbacks only apply on the global scale. Third, the negative cloud radiative heating feedback occurs through reductions of cloud amount in the middle troposphere, defined as the layer between 680 and 440 hPa, and by slight global cloud decreases in the lower troposphere. These changes act in a manner to expose the warmer atmosphere below to high clouds, thus resulting in a net warming of the atmospheric column by clouds and a negative feedback on the precipitation.
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Gaur, Abhishek, Michael Lacasse, and Marianne Armstrong. "Climate Data to Undertake Hygrothermal and Whole Building Simulations Under Projected Climate Change Influences for 11 Canadian Cities." Data 4, no. 2 (May 21, 2019): 72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/data4020072.
Full textAbstract:
Buildings and homes in Canada will be exposed to unprecedented climatic conditions in the future as a consequence of global climate change. To improve the climate resiliency of existing and new buildings, it is important to evaluate their performance over current and projected future climates. Hygrothermal and whole building simulation models, which are important tools for assessing performance, require continuous climate records at high temporal frequencies of a wide range of climate variables for input into the kinds of models that relate to solar radiation, cloud-cover, wind, humidity, rainfall, temperature, and snow-cover. In this study, climate data that can be used to assess the performance of building envelopes under current and projected future climates, concurrent with 2 °C and 3.5 °C increases in global temperatures, are generated for 11 major Canadian cities. The datasets capture the internal variability of the climate as they are comprised of 15 realizations of the future climate generated by dynamically downscaling future projections from the CanESM2 global climate model and thereafter bias-corrected with reference to observations. An assessment of the bias-corrected projections suggests, as a consequence of global warming, future increases in the temperatures and precipitation, and decreases in the snow-cover and wind-speed for all cities.
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Cohen, Jeremy M., Erin L. Sauer, Olivia Santiago, Samuel Spencer, and Jason R. Rohr. "Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates." Science 370, no. 6519 (November 19, 2020): eabb1702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abb1702.
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Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.
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Hanna, Edward. "The role of Antarctic sea ice in global climate change." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 20, no. 4 (December 1996): 371–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030913339602000401.
Full textAbstract:
Taking a distinct interdisciplinary focus, a critical view is presented of the current state of research concerning Antarctic sea-ice / atmosphere / ocean interaction and its effect on climate on the interannual timescale, with particular regard to anthropogenic global warming. Sea-ice formation, morphology, thickness, extent, seasonality and distribution are introduced as vital factors in climatic feedbacks. Sea-ice / atmosphere interaction is next discussed, emphas izing its meteorological and topographical influences and the effects of and on polar cyclonic activity. This leads on to the central theme of sea ice in global climate change, which contains critiques of sea-ice climatic feedbacks, current findings on the representation of these feedbacks in global climatic models, and to what extent they are corroborated by observational evidence. Sea-ice / ocean interaction is particularly important. This is discussed with special reference to polynyas and leads, and the use of suitably coupled sea-ice / ocean models. A brief review of several possible climatic forcing factors is presented, which most highly rates a postulated ENSO-Antarctic sea-ice link. Sea-ice / atmosphere / ocean models need to be validated by adequate observations, both from satellites and ground based. In particular, models developed in the Arctic, where the observational network allows more reasonable validation, can be applied to the Antarctic in suitably modified form so as to account for unique features of the Antarctic cryosphere. Benefits in climatic modelling will be gained by treating Antarctic sea ice as a fully coupled component of global climate.