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Lan, Xiaowen, Hao Xing, Jun Zhou, and John X. Zhao. "A Comparison of the Source, Path, and Site Effects of the Strong‐Motion Records from the Western and the Southwestern Parts of China with Modern Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 6 (November 5, 2019): 2691–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180293.
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Abstract This study aims at identifying ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) derived from large overseas datasets that may be used for the southwestern part of China (SWC) with or without modifications, identifying the source of misfits and shedding some light on the differences of physical parameters among the three regions, that is, California, Japan, and SWC region. To achieve these objectives, correction functions of physical parameters were added to six GMPEs, including two Next Generation Attenuation‐West (NGA‐West) GMPEs, two NGA‐West2 GMPEs, a GMPE from China, and the GMPE for the shallow crustal and upper‐mantle earthquakes in Japan. The correction coefficients were determined by a reasonably large dataset, including the records from the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. However, the data distribution with respect to magnitude is relatively poor and may not be suitable to develop a GMPE based on this dataset only. If the overall correction coefficients for a GMPE are the smallest, this GMPE will be considered as the best GMPE for the SWC data. We found that not all GMPEs can be modified to achieve the same goodness‐of‐fit level; the magnitude scaling rates from most GMPEs differ significantly from those of this dataset, especially at moderately long and long spectral periods; and the aftershock effect does not make a significant and consistent difference. We also found that three GMPEs do not model the site effect well either; the attenuation rates for the SWC region may be similar to those in California and for the shallow crust in Japan; and the magnitude scaling rate and the site class effect in the SWC region are similar to those in Japan. If an overseas GMPE is used for the SWC region, the GMPEs by Zhao, Zhou, et al. (2016) without the normal‐fault term and Abrahamson and Silva (2008) with or without modifications are recommended.
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Al Atik, Linda, and Norman Abrahamson. "A Methodology for the Development of 1D Reference VS Profiles Compatible with Ground-Motion Prediction Equations: Application to NGA-West2 GMPEs." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 111, no. 4 (June 15, 2021): 1765–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200312.
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ABSTRACT Site response in ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is primarily characterized as a function of the time-averaged shear-wave velocity over the top 30 m of the site profile (VS30). Although the use of VS30 as a main site-response predictor parameter is practical, GMPE site adjustments to different target regions or target site conditions require characterization of the GMPE’s rock-site response in terms of host VS profile and host kappa. Regional VS profiles and kappa values have been traditionally used to characterize GMPEs host site conditions. These regional site properties may not reflect the average site response in GMPEs. We present a methodology, based on the quarter-wavelength principles, that allows the derivation of GMPE-compatible host 1D VS profiles and kappa values. This methodology is applied to the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 (NGA-West2) GMPEs to derive GMPE-specific host VS profiles and kappa for western United States (WUS) site conditions with VS30 of 360, 490, 620, 760, and 1100 m/s. This application uses, for input, the GMPEs’ site response in Fourier amplitude spectra domain relative to a reference VS30 of 1000 m/s and requires an assigned VS profile for the reference site condition. The impact of the choice of reference VS profile on the results is not large. Comparisons of the derived GMPE-specific VS profiles for VS30 of 760 m/s show differences in the host VS profiles among the NGA-West2 GMPEs for the same site condition in WUS. Differences are also observed when comparing the derived GMPE-compatible VS profiles with the commonly used profiles for WUS for VS30 of 760 m/s. These differences highlight the importance of using GMPE-compatible VS profiles and kappa in GMPE adjustments and in site-response analyses. Limitations of this approach for soft site conditions are discussed.
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Stewart, Jonathan P., John Douglas, Mohammad Javanbarg, Yousef Bozorgnia, Norman A. Abrahamson, David M. Boore, Kenneth W. Campbell, Elise Delavaud, Mustafa Erdik, and Peter J. Stafford. "Selection of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for the Global Earthquake Model." Earthquake Spectra 31, no. 1 (February 2015): 19–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/013013eqs017m.
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Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. From many available GMPEs, we select those models recommended for use in seismic hazard assessments in the Global Earthquake Model. We present a GMPE selection procedure that evaluates multidimensional ground motion trends (e.g., with respect to magnitude, distance, and structural period), examines functional forms, and evaluates published quantitative tests of GMPE performance against independent data. Our recommendations include: four models, based principally on simulations, for stable continental regions; three empirical models for interface and in-slab subduction zone events; and three empirical models for active shallow crustal regions. To approximately incorporate epistemic uncertainties, the selection process accounts for alternate representations of key GMPE attributes, such as the rate of distance attenuation, which are defensible from available data. Recommended models for each domain will change over time as additional GMPEs are developed.
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Atik, Linda Al, and Robert R. Youngs. "Epistemic Uncertainty for NGA-West2 Models." Earthquake Spectra 30, no. 3 (August 2014): 1301–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/062813eqs173m.
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The development of the NGA-West2 ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is a collaborative effort with many interactions and exchange of ideas among the developers. The NGA-West2 developers indicate that additional epistemic uncertainty needs to be incorporated into the median ground motion estimation from each of the five NGA-West2 GMPEs in order to more fully represent an appropriate level of epistemic uncertainty. A proposed minimum additional epistemic uncertainty is evaluated based on statistical estimates of the uncertainty in the median predictions of each GMPE. The proposed additional epistemic uncertainty model is distance-independent but depends on magnitude, style of faulting (SOF), and spectral period. The epistemic uncertainty in the median predictions from each GMPE is then modeled using a three-point discrete approximation to a normal distribution.
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Fülöp, Ludovic, Vilho Jussila, Riina Aapasuo, Tommi Vuorinen, and Päivi Mäntyniemi. "A Ground-Motion Prediction Equation for Fennoscandian Nuclear Installations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 3 (May 12, 2020): 1211–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190230.
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ABSTRACT We propose a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of nuclear installations in Finland. We collected and archived the acceleration recordings of 77 earthquakes from seismic stations on very hard rock (VHR, i.e., the shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the geological profile=2800 m/s according to the definition used in the nuclear industry) in Finland and Sweden since 2006 and computed the corresponding response spectra important for engineering evaluation. We augmented the narrow magnitude range of the local data by a subset of VHR recordings of 33 earthquakes from the Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) (NGA-East) database, mainly from eastern Canada. We adapted the backbone curves of the G16 equation proposed by Graizer (2016) for CENA. After the calibration, we evaluated the accuracy of the median prediction and the random error. We conclude that the GMPE developed can be used for predicting ground motions in Fennoscandia. Because of compatibility with the original G16 backbone curve and comparisons with the NGA-East GMPEs, we estimate that the formulation proposed is valid on VHR over the range of 2≤moment magnitude≤7.0 and 0≤ rupture distance ≤300 km, the depth range over 1.5–37 km, and frequencies between 1 and 100 Hz. The median of the composite prediction of the GMPE proposed was reasonable. The standard deviation of the prediction error (σ) was over the range of 0.73–0.86, in ln spectral acceleration units, for the relevant spectral frequencies. This is somewhat lower than the G16 σ, indicating lower aleatory variability. The new Fenno-G16 GMPE is applicable over a wider range of magnitudes than the two older GMPEs available in Finland and fits the data better, especially for peak ground acceleration and 25 Hz.
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Holmgren, Joanna M., Gail M. Atkinson, and Hadi Ghofrani. "Reconciling Ground Motions and Stress Drops for Induced Earthquakes in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 5 (March 31, 2020): 2398–410. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190308.
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ABSTRACT A regional ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) is defined for earthquakes in the western Canada sedimentary basin. The stress parameter model that is input to the GMPE, which controls high-frequency amplitudes, is developed based on an empirical Green’s function (EGF) study in the same region (Holmgren et al., 2019). The GMPE is developed using the generic GMPE approach of Yenier and Atkinson (2015a,b); regional parameters, including attenuation and site response, are calibrated using a database of response spectra. The ground-motion database comprises 726 records from 92 earthquakes with magnitudes 2.3–4.4, at distances to 200 km; most events are believed to be related to hydraulic fracturing. To investigate discrepancies between the values of GMPE stress parameter and EGF stress drop for individual earthquakes, stress parameters are computed for each event by fitting the GMPE to observed response spectra. There is a large scatter in the EGF versus GMPE stress estimates, even though the GMPE estimates were implicitly calibrated to equal the EGF values on average. The discrepancies can be attributed to two methodological factors. First, the EGF approach removes the site and path terms through spectral division, whereas the GMPE approach relies on an average regional model as determined from regression of the source and path attenuation. The use of an average regional model results in greater uncertainty, in particular, due to directivity effects (which are better accommodated in the EGF approach). Second, the EGF approach is performed in the Fourier domain, whereas the GMPE fitting is done in the response spectral domain. We conclude that EGF stress-drop models provide useful constraints for GMPE development, when used in combination with calibration to a ground-motion database.
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Erduran, Emrah, and Conrad Lindholm. "A Critical Look at the Use of Design Spectrum Shape for Seismic Risk Assessment." Earthquake Spectra 28, no. 4 (November 2012): 1711–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.4000086.
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The effects of using design spectrum shape over actual response spectra on earthquake damage estimates has been investigated. A series of numerical simulations were conducted to estimate the expected damage. The simulations were conducted with four different spectral shapes, two different ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and three different soil classes. As a result of the numerical simulations, it was observed that the use of design spectrum shape leads to over- or underestimation of damage estimates relative to those obtained from the actual spectrum computed using GMPE. The damage estimates were observed to be sensitive to the selected design spectrum shape, the GMPE used to compute the spectral values, the soil type, and the fundamental period of the building typology. It was also observed that Eurocode- and IBC-type design spectrum shapes led to significantly different damage estimates compared to one another.
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Gülerce, Zeynep, and Norman A. Abrahamson. "Site-Specific Design Spectra for Vertical Ground Motion." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 4 (November 2011): 1023–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3651317.
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This paper contains ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the vertical-to-horizontal spectral acceleration (V/H) ratio, and the methods for constructing vertical design spectra that are consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment results for the horizontal ground motion component. The GMPEs for V/H ratio consistent with the horizontal GMPE of Abrahamson and Silva (2008) are derived using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center's Next Generation of Ground-Motion Attenuation Models (PEER-NGA) database (Chiou et. al. 2008). The proposed V/H ratio GMPE is dependent on the earthquake magnitude and distance, consistent with previous models, but it differs from previous studies in that it accounts for the differences in the nonlinear site-response effects on the horizontal and vertical components. This difference in nonlinear effects results in large V/H ratios at short spectral periods for soil sites located close to large earthquakes. A method to develop vertical design spectra dependent on the horizontal component uniform hazard spectrum that accounts for the correlation between the variability of the horizontal ground-motion model and the variability of the V/H ratio ground-motion model is proposed.
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Campbell, Kenneth W., and Yousef Bozorgnia. "A Comparison of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Arias Intensity and Cumulative Absolute Velocity Developed Using a Consistent Database and Functional Form." Earthquake Spectra 28, no. 3 (August 2012): 931–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.4000067.
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Arias intensity (AI) and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) have been proposed as instrumental intensity measures that can incorporate the cumulative effects of ground motion duration and intensity on the response of structural and geotechnical systems. In this study, we have developed a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the horizontal component of AI in order to compare its predictability to a similar GMPE for CAV. Both GMPEs were developed using the same strong motion database and functional form in order to eliminate any bias these factors might cause in the comparison. This comparison shows that AI exhibits significantly greater amplitude scaling and aleatory uncertainty than CAV. The smaller standard deviation and less sensitivity to amplitude suggests that CAV is more predictable than AI and should be considered as an alternative to AI in engineering and geotechnical applications where the latter intensity measure is traditionally used.
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Sung, Chih‐Hsuan, and Chyi‐Tyi Lee. "Improvement of the Quantification of Epistemic Uncertainty Using Single‐Station Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 4 (June 18, 2019): 1358–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180044.
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Abstract The results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are sensitive to the standard deviation of the residuals of the ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), especially for long‐return periods. Recent studies have proven that the epistemic uncertainty should be incorporated into PSHA using a logic‐tree method instead of mixing it with the aleatory variability. In this study, we propose using single‐station GMPEs with a novel approach (an epistemic‐residual diagram) to improve the quantification of epistemic uncertainty per station. The single‐station attenuation model is established from the observational recordings of a single station, hence, site‐to‐site variability (σS) can be ignored. We use 20,006 records of 497 crustal earthquakes with moment magnitudes (Mw) greater than 4.0, obtained from the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program network, to build the single‐station GMPEs for 570 stations showing the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations. A comparison is made between the total sigma of the regional GMPE (σT), the single‐station sigma of the regional GMPE as estimated by the variance decomposition method (σSS), and the sigma of single‐station GMPEs (σSS,S), for different periods. For most stations (70%), the σSS,S is about 20%–50% smaller than the σT. Furthermore, we adopt the epistemic‐residual diagram to separate the σSS,S into the epistemic uncertainty (σEP,S) and the remaining unexplained variability (σSP,S) for each station. The results show that in most areas, the σSP,S for the PGA is about 50%–80% smaller than the σT. Finally, the variations in the various sigma and model coefficients are mapped with the geographical locations of the stations for analysis of different regional characteristics.
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Graizer, Vladimir, Erol Kalkan, and Kuo-Wan Lin. "Global Ground Motion Prediction Equation for Shallow Crustal Regions." Earthquake Spectra 29, no. 3 (August 2013): 777–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.4000140.
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The Graizer-Kalkan ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for peak ground acceleration (PGA) constitutes a series of filters, each of which represents a certain physical phenomenon affecting the radiation of seismic waves from the source. The performance of this GMPE is examined by using about 14,000 records from 245 worldwide shallow crustal events. The recorded data and predictions show an excellent match as far as 100 km from the fault. Beyond 100 km, the data generally show faster attenuation on the order of Rrup−4 due to a relatively low Q (as in the western United States) or slower attenuation on the order of Rrup−1.5 due to a high Q (as in the central and eastern United States). An improved GMPE is developed to account for regional variations in ground motion attenuation. The The new GMPE produces a better match to recorded data up to 500 km from the fault.
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Campbell, Kenneth W., and Yousef Bozorgnia. "NGA-West2 Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5% Damped Linear Acceleration Response Spectra." Earthquake Spectra 30, no. 3 (August 2014): 1087–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/062913eqs175m.
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We used an expanded PEER NGA-West2 database to develop a new ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the average horizontal components of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped linear pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra at 21 periods ranging from 0.01 s to 10 s. In addition to those terms included in our now superseded 2008 GMPE, we include a more-detailed hanging wall model, scaling with hypocentral depth and fault dip, regionally independent geometric attenuation, regionally dependent anelastic attenuation and site conditions, and magnitude-dependent aleatory variability. The NGA-West2 database provides better constraints on magnitude scaling and attenuation of small-magnitude earthquakes, where our 2008 GMPE was known to be biased. We consider our new GMPE to be valid for estimating horizontal ground motion from shallow crustal continental earthquakes in an active tectonic domain for rupture distances ranging from 0 km to 300 km and magnitudes ranging from 3.3 to 7.5–8.5, depending on source mechanism.
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Kotha, Sreeram Reddy, Dino Bindi, and Fabrice Cotton. "Site-Corrected Magnitude- and Region-Dependent Correlations of Horizontal Peak Spectral Amplitudes." Earthquake Spectra 33, no. 4 (November 2017): 1415–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/091416eqs150m.
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Empirical correlations of horizontal peak spectral amplitudes (PSA) are modeled using the total-residuals obtained in a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) regression. Recent GMPEs moved toward partially non-ergodic region- and site-specific predictions, while the residual correlation models remained largely ergodic. Using mixed-effects regression, we decompose the total-residuals of a pan-European GMPE into between-event, between-site, and event-and-site corrected residuals to investigate the ergodicity in empirical PSA correlations. We first observed that the between-event correlations are magnitude-dependent, partially due to the differences in source spectra, and influence of stress-drop parameter on small and large events. Next, removing the between-site residuals from within-event residuals yields the event-and-site corrected residuals which are found to be region-dependent, possibly due to the regional differences in distance-decay of short period PSAs. Using our site-corrected magnitude- and region-dependent correlations, and the between-site residuals as empirical site-specific ground motion adjustments, we compute partially non-ergodic conditional mean spectra at four well-recorded sites in Europe and Middle Eastern regions. 09_EERI_33_4_Suppl_ES1_Online.xlsx
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Phung, Van-Bang, Chin Hsiung Loh, Shu Hsien Chao, Brian SJ Chiou, and Bor-Shouh Huang. "Ground motion prediction equation for crustal earthquakes in Taiwan." Earthquake Spectra 36, no. 4 (June 22, 2020): 2129–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/8755293020919415.
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We develop a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating horizontal ground motion amplitudes caused by crustal earthquakes, based on an integrated data set that includes strong motion recordings mainly from Taiwan earthquakes and only from large magnitude earthquakes in the NGA-West2 database. This GMPE is developed for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis study, which is introduced as a part of Taiwan Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 projects. The functional form developed by Chiou and Youngs was carefully studied to determine the key modeling parameters needed to regress against ground motion in the target region. Using this functional form, the GMPE achieves considerable improvement over previously developed Taiwan GMPEs. In particular, the use of a high-order function in magnitude scaling enables representation of the saturation effects of large earthquakes. Moreover, consideration of focal mechanisms, depth effects, and dip effects are used to correct the magnitude scaling; consideration of nonlinear site amplification is conditioned on VS30 and reference ground motion on rock; and consideration of basin depth effect is a function of Z1.0 in correlation with VS30. In addition, ground motion data used in this study are not only expanded by more than three times as many earthquakes and records compared with a previous Taiwan model but also provide the metadata of these records that were not available or were previously incomplete. In this study, we compare the proposed model with the NGA-West2 models and discuss the regional difference in ground motion in terms of spectral shape, magnitude scaling, distance scaling, depth scaling, style of faulting, and site effects. We provide median and single standard deviations of peak ground acceleration and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration response ordinates of the orientation-independent average horizontal component of ground motion (RotD50) for the spectral period of 0.01–10 s.
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Almeida, Thairone Ezequiel de, Isabela Carvalho de Morais, and Luciana Paula Reis. "Gestão de micro e pequenas empresas na Engenharia de Produção: revisão sistemática de literatura." Research, Society and Development 10, no. 13 (October 17, 2021): e409101321274. http://dx.doi.org/10.33448/rsd-v10i13.21274.
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A maior parte dos cursos de graduação em Engenharia de Produção apresenta projetos pedagógicos modernos e em concordância com as Diretrizes Curriculares Nacionais de Engenharia. Contudo, a criação de estratégias voltada ao universo da Gestão de Micro e Pequenas Empresas (GMPE) tem atributos nem sempre revelados nos cursos. O elemento central deste artigo é identificar quais vertentes existem na literatura quanto ao ensino-aprendizagem de GMPE nos cursos de graduação em Engenharia de Produção. A Revisão Sistemática de Literatura (RSL) resultou em 20 artigos publicados entre 2016-2021, obtidos na base de dados do Portal de Periódicos da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES). Percebe-se na revisão que o tema foi tratado por intermédio das dimensões de especificidades de GMPE; estrutura curricular para formação do engenheiro de produção; e ensino-aprendizagem do empreendedorismo. Destaca-se a escassez de publicações que tratam das particularidades de criação de estratégias voltadas às Micro e Pequenas Empresas (MPE’s) nos Projetos Pedagógicos dos Cursos (PPC’s) de Engenharia de Produção. Por ser um assunto atual e emergente, o estudo proposto pode contribuir para a compreensão do GMPE por meio de tais cursos e gerar revelações que nortearão pesquisas futuras.
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Bozorgnia, Yousef, Mahmoud M. Hachem, and Kenneth W. Campbell. "Ground Motion Prediction Equation (“Attenuation Relationship”) for Inelastic Response Spectra." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 1 (February 2010): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3281182.
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This paper presents the process and fundamental results of a comprehensive ground motion prediction equation (GMPE, or “attenuation” relationship) developed for inelastic response spectra. We used over 3,100 horizontal ground motions recorded in 64 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from 4.3–7.9 and rupture distances ranging from 0.1–199 km. For each record, we computed inelastic spectra for ductility ranging from one (elastic response) to eight. Our GMPE correlates inelastic spectral ordinates to earthquake magnitude, site-to-source distance, fault mechanism, local soil properties, and basin effects. The developed GMPE is used in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analyses to directly generate inelastic spectra. This is in contrast to developing “attenuation” relationships for elastic response spectra, carrying out a hazard analysis, and subsequently adopting approximate rules to derive inelastic response from elastic spectra.
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Kotha, Sreeram Reddy, Dino Bindi, and Fabrice Cotton. "From Ergodic to Region- and Site-Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: Method Development and Application at European and Middle Eastern Sites." Earthquake Spectra 33, no. 4 (November 2017): 1433–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/081016eqs130m.
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The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors ( δS2 S s) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The δS2 S s are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region- and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability ( φ S2 S) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) δS2 S s at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori φ S2 S, and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability σ ss,s is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability σ0. Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels—a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.
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Wang, Zhiyi, Irmela Zentner, and Enrico Zio. "Accounting for Uncertainties of Magnitude- and Site-Related Parameters on Neural Network-Computed Ground-Motion Prediction Equations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 2 (February 11, 2020): 629–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180309.
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ABSTRACT Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are used to express seismic intensity measures as a function of source-, path-, and site-related parameters. Functional models are still widely used for their computation. Fully data-driven approaches have been recently proposed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). However, the estimation errors of the predictor parameters (e.g., the magnitude and VS30) are generally not accounted for in the development of GMPEs. In the present study, the uncertainty in the magnitude- and site-related parameters is considered in the establishment of GMPEs by ANNs. For this, an algorithm is proposed based on the generalized least-squares principle applied to ANNs training. A simulated database is used to validate the approach and to demonstrate the effect of the input parameter uncertainties on the GMPEs. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the Reference database for seismic ground motion in Europe (RESORCE) database. Results show that the consideration of uncertainty in the magnitude- and site-related parameters can reduce the total GMPE uncertainties by 4%–16%, whereas the median predictions remain similar.
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Villani, Manuela, Barbara Polidoro, Rory McCully, Thomas Ader, Ben Edwards, Andreas Rietbrock, Ziggy Lubkowski, Tim J. Courtney, and Martin Walsh. "A Selection of GMPEs for the United Kingdom Based on Instrumental and Macroseismic Datasets." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 4 (July 16, 2019): 1378–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180268.
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Abstract In countries with low‐to‐moderate seismicity, the selection of appropriate ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to be used in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a challenging step. Empirical observations of ground motion are limited, and GMPEs, when available, are generally based on stochastic simulations or adjusted empirical GMPEs from elsewhere. This article investigates the suitability of recent GMPEs to the United Kingdom. To this end, the spectral accelerations obtained from available instrumental ground‐motion data in the United Kingdom with magnitude lower than 4.5 are compared with the GMPEs’ predictions through the analysis of residuals and the application of statistical tests. To compensate for the scarcity of data for the magnitude range of interest in the PSHA, a macroseismic dataset is also considered. Macroseismic intensities are converted to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and statistically compared with the PGA predicted by the GMPEs. The GMPEs are then compared in terms of median ground‐motion prediction through Sammon’s maps to evaluate their similarities. The analyses from both datasets led to six suitable GMPEs, of which three are from the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 project, one is European, one is based mainly on a Japanese dataset, and one is a stochastic GMPE developed specifically for the United Kingdom.
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Hou, Ruibin, and John X. Zhao. "A Nonlinear Site Amplification Model for the Horizontal Component Developed for Ground-Motion Prediction Equations in Japan Using Site Period as the Site-Response Parameter." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112, no. 1 (September 28, 2021): 381–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120210126.
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ABSTRACT This article presents a nonlinear site amplification model for ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), using site period as site-effect proxy based on the measured shear-wave velocity profiles of selected KiK-net and K-NET sites in Japan. This model was derived using 1D equivalent-linear site-response analysis for a total of 516 measured soil-site shear-wave velocity profiles subjected to a total of 912 components of rock-site records. The modulus reduction and damping curves for each soil layer were assigned based on the soil-type description for a particular layer. The site period and site impedance ratio affect both the linear and nonlinear parts of this study, and were used as the site parameters in the 1D amplification model. A large impedance ratio enhances the amplification ratios when the site responds elastically and enhances the nonlinear response when the site develops a significant nonlinear response. The effects of moment magnitude and source distance on the linear part of the 1D amplification model were also incorporated in the model. To implement the 1D amplification model into GMPEs, a model adjustment is required to match the GMPE amplification ratio at weak motion and to retain the nonlinear amplification ratio at the strong motion of the 1D model. The two-step adjustment method by Zhao, Hu, et al. (2015) was adopted in this study with significant modifications. It is not possible to obtain a credible second-step adjustment parameter using the GMPEs dataset only. We proposed three methods for calculating the scale factors. Method 1 is a constant angle in a 30°–60° range for all spectral periods; method 2 was based on the GMPE dataset and 1-D model parameters; and method 3 was based on the strong-motion records used for the 1D site modeling. A simple second-step adjustment factor leads to smoothing amplification ratios and soil-site spectrum.
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Derras, Boumédiène, Pierre-Yves Bard, and Fabrice Cotton. "Site-Condition Proxies, Ground Motion Variability, and Data-Driven GMPEs: Insights from the NGA-West2 and RESORCE Data Sets." Earthquake Spectra 32, no. 4 (November 2016): 2027–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/060215eqs082m.
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We compare the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce the aleatory variability of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Three SCPs (measured V S30, inferred V S30, local topographic slope) and two accelerometric databases (RESORCE and NGA-West2) are considered. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach including a random-effect procedure is used to derive GMPEs setting the relationship between peak ground acceleration ( PGA), peak ground velocity ( PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration [ PSA( T)], and explanatory variables ( M w, R JB, and V S30 or Slope). The analysis is performed using both discrete site classes and continuous proxy values. All “non-measured” SCPs exhibit a rather poor performance in reducing aleatory variability, compared to the better performance of measured V S30. A new, fully data-driven GMPE based on the NGA-West2 is then derived, with an aleatory variability value depending on the quality of the SCP. It proves very consistent with previous GMPEs built on the same data set. Measuring V S30 allows for benefit from an aleatory variability reduction up to 15%.
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Chao, Shu-Hsien, and Yi-Hau Chen. "A Novel Regression Analysis Method for Randomly Truncated Strong-Motion Data." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 2 (May 2019): 977–1001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/022218eqs044m.
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Regression analysis is a basic and essential tool for developing the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). Generally, the probability of intensity measurement for a given ground motion scenario described by several predictors is assumed to be normally distributed. However, because of the triggering threshold of the strong-motion station, ground motion records below the triggering threshold are truncated (i.e., not recorded), and the truncated intensity levels of spectral accelerations at different periods are random variables. Consequently, the sampling of the ground motion data used in GMPE development is biased, and the observed probability of the intensity measurement is no longer normally distributed. Therefore, a novel two-step maximum-likelihood method is proposed in this paper as a regression tool to overcome this problem in GMPE development. The advantage of the proposed method is that the correlation between records from the same events and those from the same sites as well as the biased sampling problem can be considered simultaneously, and more ground motion data can be considered to derive more reliable analysis results.
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Kale, Özkan, and Sinan Akkar. "A Ground-Motion Logic-Tree Scheme for Regional Seismic Hazard Studies." Earthquake Spectra 33, no. 3 (August 2017): 837–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/051316eqs080m.
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We propose a methodology that can be useful to the hazard expert in building ground-motion logic trees to capture the center and range of ground-motion amplitudes. The methodology can be used to identify a logic-tree structure and weighting scheme that prevents the dominancy of a specific ground-motion model. This strategy can be useful for regional probabilistic seismic hazard since logic-trees biased by a specific ground-motion predictive model (GMPE) may cause disparities in the seismic hazard for regions represented by large number of sites with complex seismic features. The methodology first identifies a suit of candidate ground-motion prediction equations that can cover the center, body and range of estimated ground motions. The GMPE set is then used for establishing alternative logic-trees composed of different weighting schemes to identify the one(s) that would not be biased towards a particular GMPE due to its sensitivity to the weights. The proposed methodology utilizes visual and statistical tools to assess the ground motion distributions over large areas that makes it more practical for regional hazard studies.
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Gregor, Nick, Norman A. Abrahamson, Gail M. Atkinson, David M. Boore, Yousef Bozorgnia, Kenneth W. Campbell, Brian S. J. Chiou, et al. "Comparison of NGA-West2 GMPEs." Earthquake Spectra 30, no. 3 (August 2014): 1179–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/070113eqs186m.
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A presentation of the model parameters and comparison of the median ground-motion values from the NGA-West2 GMPEs is presented for a suite of deterministic cases. In general, the median ground motions are similar, within a factor of about 1.5–2.0 for 5 < M < 7 and distances between 10–100 km. Differences increase (on the order of 2–3) for large-magnitude (M > 8) earthquakes at large distances ( R > 100–200 km) and for close distances ( R < 10 km). A similar increase is observed for hanging-wall sites, and slightly larger differences are observed for soil sites as opposed to rock sites. Regionalization of four of the GMPEs yields similar attenuation rate adjustments based on the different regional data sets. All five GMPE aleatory variability models are a function of magnitude with higher overall standard deviations values for the smaller magnitudes when compared to the large-magnitude events.
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Tang, Yuxiang, Nelson Lam, Hing-Ho Tsang, and Elisa Lumantarna. "Use of Macroseismic Intensity Data to Validate a Regionally Adjustable Ground Motion Prediction Model." Geosciences 9, no. 10 (September 30, 2019): 422. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9100422.
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In low-to-moderate seismicity (intraplate) regions where locally recorded strong motion data are too scare for conventional regression analysis, stochastic simulations based on seismological modelling have often been used to predict ground motions of future earthquakes. This modelling methodology has been practised in Central and Eastern North America (CENA) for decades. It is cautioned that ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) that have been developed for use in CENA might not always be suited for use in another intraplate region because of differences in the crustal structure. This paper introduces a regionally adjustable GMPE, known as the component attenuation model (CAM), by which a diversity of crustal conditions can be covered in one model. Input parameters into CAM have been configured in the same manner as a seismological model, as both types of models are based on decoupling the spectral properties of earthquake ground motions into a generic source factor and a regionally specific path factor (including anelastic and geometric attenuation factors) along with a crustal factor. Unlike seismological modelling, CAM is essentially a GMPE that can be adapted readily for use in different regions (or different areas within a region) without the need of undertaking any stochastic simulations, providing that parameters characterising the crustal structure have been identified. In addressing the challenge of validating a GMPE for use in an area where instrumental data are scarce, modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data inferred from peak ground velocity values predicted by CAM are compared with records of MMI of past earthquake events, as reported in historical archives. South-Eastern Australia (SEA) and South-Eastern China (SEC) are the two study regions used in this article for demonstrating the viability of CAM as a ground motion prediction tool in an intraplate environment.
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Mendecki, Aleksander J. "Simple GMPE for underground mines." Acta Geophysica 67, no. 3 (May 6, 2019): 837–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11600-019-00289-z.
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Duong, Minh v., Hieu T. Nguyen, Tam V. T. Mai, and Lam K. Huynh. "Global minimum profile error (GMPE) – a least-squares-based approach for extracting macroscopic rate coefficients for complex gas-phase chemical reactions." Physical Chemistry Chemical Physics 20, no. 2 (2018): 1231–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c7cp06340g.
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The new GMPE method was introduced to derive the macroscopic rate coefficients for complex gas-phase reactions from the time-resolved species profiles obtained from the master equation (ME) solutions.
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Fu, Junfeng, Yaping Wang, Meng Sun, Yingwei Xu, and Lanming Chen. "Antibacterial Activity and Components of the Methanol-Phase Extract from Rhizomes of Pharmacophagous Plant Alpinia officinarum Hance." Molecules 27, no. 13 (July 5, 2022): 4308. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/molecules27134308.
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The rhizomes of Alpinia officinarum Hance (known as the smaller galangal) have been used as a traditional medicine for over 1000 years. Nevertheless, little research is available on the bacteriostatic activity of the herb rhizomes. In this study, we employed, for the first time, a chloroform and methanol extraction method to investigate the antibacterial activity and components of the rhizomes of A. officinarum Hance. The results showed that the growth of five species of pathogenic bacteria was significantly inhibited by the galangal methanol-phase extract (GMPE) (p < 0.05). The GMPE treatment changed the bacterial cell surface hydrophobicity, membrane fluidity and/or permeability. Comparative transcriptomic analyses revealed approximately eleven and ten significantly altered metabolic pathways in representative Gram-positive Staphylococcus aureus and Gram-negative Enterobacter sakazakii pathogens, respectively (p < 0.05), demonstrating different antibacterial action modes. The GMPE was separated further using a preparative high-performance liquid chromatography (Prep-HPLC) technique, and approximately 46 and 45 different compounds in two major component fractions (Fractions 1 and 4, respectively) were identified using ultra-HPLC combined with mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS) techniques. o-Methoxy cinnamaldehyde (40.12%) and p-octopamine (62.64%) were the most abundant compounds in Fractions 1 and 4, respectively. The results of this study provide data for developing natural products from galangal rhizomes against common pathogenic bacteria.
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Rodríguez-Pradilla, Germán, and David W. Eaton. "Ground-Motion Analysis of Hydraulic-Fracturing Induced Seismicity at Close Epicentral Distance." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 1 (December 31, 2019): 331–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190103.
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ABSTRACT The application of seismic hazard analysis methods developed for natural earthquakes can provide an effective framework for managing risks of induced seismicity (IS) sequences, particularly for assessment of potential risk to nearby infrastructure. Among various factors, the reliability of these methods depends on the accuracy of the ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE)—especially at close epicentral distances where ground motions are expected to be highest. In addition, potential impacts on local infrastructure can be assessed based on ground-motion-derived intensity values, which provide a basis for some traffic-light protocols that are used for managing fluid IS. GMPEs in many areas of the world, however, are poorly calibrated at close epicentral distances, because the availability of near-source seismograph stations is generally very sparse. This study investigates ground motions generated by an IS sequence, up to local magnitude (ML) 3.77 that occurred during a hydraulic-fracturing stimulation in the Duvernay shale play in central Alberta, western Canada. The sequence was monitored using a near-surface array that was located directly above the hydraulically fractured horizontal wells, providing accurate ground-motion measurements at hypocentral distances <10 km. The local array consisted of a combination of geophones cemented in shallow wellbores to depth of ∼27 m, shallow buried broadband seismometers, and a strong-motion accelerometer. This configuration enabled direct measurement of near-surface seismic velocities in the top 27 m, which provided robust VS30 data used to correct observed ground motions for local site-amplification effects. Our data set extends previous analyses in this region by providing new measurements very close to the epicenters of moderate earthquakes and shows that a recently developed GMPE provides accurate near-source ground-motion estimates.
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Nuraini, Syarifah, Mahfut Mahfut, and Rifki Bangsawan. "Germination Process of Bud Chips of 3 Commercial Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L) Varieties at PT. Gunung Madu Plantations." Indonesian Journal of Biotechnology and Biodiversity 6, no. 1 (April 30, 2022): 33–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.47007/ijobb.v6i1.124.
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The increase in demand for sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L) as an industrial raw material is not accompanied by an increase in national sugarcane production. The decline in sugarcane production was due to errors in cultivation. In the growth phase, germination is the most critical and vulnerable phase, resulting in sugarcane cultivation and subsequent sugarcane growth. The purpose of this study was to determine the germination process of bud chips of 3 commercial sugarcane varieties. The experiment was carried out in March-May 2021 at the Research and Development experimental garden of PT. GMP uses a Randomized Block Design. There were 3 varieties observed, namely GMP3, GMP5, and GMP7. Each Bud chip was planted using an individual technique with a spacing of 50 cm and covered with soil. Observations were made until the 30th day after planting. The results showed that the GMP7 and GMP3 varieties included varieties that had the most stable type of germination and relatively fast organ growth stages, while the GMP5 variety had a relatively slow germination type for each organ formation and plant growth.
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Azwar, Chintya Meidina, Arifan Jaya Syahbana, Anggun Mayang Sari, Muhammad Asrurifak, Hendriyawan Hendriyawan, and Masyhur Irsyam. "Making PGA hazard curve in big cities of bengkulu by using USGS PSHA modified." Indonesian Geotechnical Journal 1, no. 1 (April 30, 2022): 56–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.56144/igj.v1i1.8.
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The tectonic plate movement that limits the Indonesian territory causes frequent earthquakes because the plates have dynamic rocks properties with varying strengths. The collision of the plates causes fault zones, such as in Bengkulu, a region traversed by the Sumatran fault with a record of many earthquakes. The rapid growth and development of technology could support increased infrastructure development by considering earthquakes a major global hazard. Therefore, this study aimed to create a PGA hazard curve useful in improving infrastructure development in Bengkulu's big cities. Data were sourced from the Book of Indonesian Earthquake Hazard and Source 2017. The United States Geological States Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (USGS PSHA) software was modified regarding the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) database. The GMPE used in this study are (1) BC Hydro (2012) updated for subduction source; (2) Campbel Bozorgnia (2014), Boore Atkinson (2014) and Chiou Young (2014) for shallow crustal source, and (3) Zhao et al. (2006) and Abrahamson et al. (2018) for intraslab, with 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, and 10,000 years return periods. The results obtained using the new GMPE showed a change in the maximum acceleration. The Hazard Curve (HC) and PGA map showed that the Kepahiang and Lebong Districts have the highest PGA values of 1.8070 and 1.8433 g, respectively, for the 10,000 year return period. The lowest value was 0.297g recorded in Rejang Lebong for 500 year return period.
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Sousa, Luis, Mário Marques, Vitor Silva, and Humberto Varum. "Hazard Disaggregation and Record Selection for Fragility Analysis and Earthquake Loss Estimation." Earthquake Spectra 33, no. 2 (May 2017): 529–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/062016eqs101m.
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Economic losses and collapse probability are critical measures for evaluating the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this context, this study sheds light on several problems and limitations in current practice of hazard-consistent ground-motion selection and fragility analysis, focusing on the impact that (commonly assumed) approximations in disaggregation outputs have on the aforementioned risk metrics, as opposed to an exact solution. These issues are investigated for several building classes, seismicity models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), for a site in the city of Lisbon (Portugal). It is observed that only an exact (i.e., rupture-by-rupture) disaggregation can lead to satisfactory results in terms of accuracy, when limit state criteria are not structure-specific. On the other hand, an approximate method is proposed, which still leads to statistically valid results regardless of the chosen structural class, seismicity model or GMPE.
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Huang, Boyin, Chunying Liu, Eric Freeman, Garrett Graham, Tom Smith, and Huai-Min Zhang. "Assessment and Intercomparison of NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (DOISST) Version 2.1." Journal of Climate 34, no. 18 (September 2021): 7421–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0001.1.
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AbstractThe NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset (DOISST) has recently been updated to v2.1 (January 2016–present). Its accuracy may impact the climate assessment, monitoring and prediction, and environment-related applications. Its performance, together with those of seven other well-known sea surface temperature (SST) products, is assessed by comparison with buoy and Argo observations in the global oceans on daily 0.25° × 0.25° resolution from January 2016 to June 2020. These seven SST products are NASA MUR25, GHRSST GMPE, BoM GAMSSA, UKMO OSTIA, NOAA GPB, ESA CCI, and CMC. Our assessments indicate that biases and root-mean-square difference (RMSDs) in reference to all buoys and all Argo floats are low in DOISST. The bias in reference to the independent 10% of buoy SSTs remains low in DOISST, but the RMSD is slightly higher in DOISST than in OSTIA and CMC. The biases in reference to the independent 10% of Argo observations are low in CMC, DOISST, and GMPE; also, RMSDs are low in GMPE and CMC. The biases are similar in GAMSSA, OSTIA, GPB, and CCI whether they are compared against all buoys, all Argo, or the 10% of buoy or 10% of Argo observations, while the RMSDs against Argo observations are slightly smaller than those against buoy observations. These features indicate a good performance of DOISST v2.1 among the eight products, which may benefit from ingesting the Argo observations by expanding global and regional spatial coverage of in situ observations for effective bias correction of satellite data.
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Bommer, Julian J., and Sinan Akkar. "Consistent Source-to-Site Distance Metrics in Ground-Motion Prediction Equations and Seismic Source Models for PSHA." Earthquake Spectra 28, no. 1 (February 2012): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3672994.
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Most modern ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE) use definitions of the source-to-site distance that reflect the dimensions of the fault rupture for larger earthquakes rather than using point-source measures relative to the epicenter or hypocenter. This is a positive development since it more realistically reflects the fact that energy is released from the crust around the entire fault rupture during a large earthquake. However, seismic source configurations defined for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) almost invariably include areas of distributed point-source seismicity in addition to linear fault sources, particularly in regions of lower earthquake activity. Herein, two GMPEs are derived from the same dataset to demonstrate the errors that can result from combining point-source simulations and extended-source distance metrics. The case is made for all ground-motion model developers to consider deriving pairs of equations, one using an extended-source distance metric, the other a point-source measure.
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Villani, Manuela, Ezio Faccioli, Mario Ordaz, and Marco Stupazzini. "High-Resolution Seismic Hazard Analysis in a Complex Geological Configuration: The Case of the Sulmona Basin in Central Italy." Earthquake Spectra 30, no. 4 (November 2014): 1801–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1112911eqs288m.
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This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) in the near field of active earthquake faults, in which deterministically computed ground motion scenarios, replacing empirically predicted ground motion values, are introduced. In fact, the databases of most ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) tend to be insufficiently constrained at short distances and data may only partially account for the rupture process, seismic wave propagation and three-dimensional (3-D) complex configurations. Hence, herein, 3-D numerical simulations of a Mw = 6.4 earthquake rupture of the Sulmona fault in Central Italy, are carried out through the spectral element code GeoELSE ( f < 2.5 Hz), and the results are introduced in a PSHA, exploiting the capabilities of CRISIS2008 code. The SH results obtained highlight the combined effects of site, basin, and topographic features, and provide a “high-resolution” representation of the hazard in the Sulmona Basin, particularly at long periods. Such representation is expected to be more realistic than those based simply on a GMPE.
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Dowling, Jason, W. D. Liam Finn, Carlos E. Ventura, Armin Bebamzadeh, and Mike Fairhurst. "An alternative approach to site factors for NBCC 2015." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 43, no. 12 (December 2016): 1017–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2015-0544.
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The site amplification factors in the 2015 edition of the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC 2015) for South Western British Columbia (SWBC) were developed using only the single site term associated with the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for crustal sources. The seismic hazard in SWBC is derived from three source types; crustal, subduction intraplate, and subduction interface sources. Therefore site factors based only on a crustal site term are approximate. This study was conducted to assess the degree of approximation. Alternative site amplification factors for Vancouver and Victoria, British Columbia were calculated using site specific look-up tables incorporating all the GMPEs associated with each seismic source type and their associated site terms. The alternative site factors are significantly greater than those given in NBCC 2015 for periods 0.3 s, 0.5 s, and 1.0 s. These results suggest that the process for calculating site amplification factors should be reassessed by the committee currently reviewing seismic hazard for NBCC 2020.
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Kamai, Ronnie, Norman A. Abrahamson, and Walter J. Silva. "VS30 in the NGA GMPEs: Regional Differences and Suggested Practice." Earthquake Spectra 32, no. 4 (November 2016): 2083–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/072615eqs121m.
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Shear-wave velocity profiles from California, Taiwan, and Japan are used to evaluate the regionalized linear V S30 scaling in the recent NGA-West2 GMPEs. Profiles in the same V S30 range are compared, and their differences and similarities are discussed. A simple parametric model for the median velocity profile and its standard deviation is provided for California and Japan. The model should only be used for 250 ≤ V S30 ≤ 850 m/s, representing the range of profile data availability. We make the following recommendation: for site-specific evaluations, knowledge of V S30 alone is insufficient. A representative velocity profile should be constructed either from site-specific measurements or from measured profiles in a similar geological settings and depositional environment. The representative velocity profile should be consistent with one of the proposed profiles in terms of both its median and standard deviation, for the corresponding V S30 model in the GMPE to be used, regardless of true geographical association.
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Lermo-Samaniego, Javier. "Ground motion prediction model for southeastern México removing site effects using the Earthquake horizontal-to-vertical ratio (EHVSR)." Geofísica Internacional 59, no. 4 (October 1, 2020): 257–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.2020.59.4.1894.
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We propose a ground motion attenuation model (ground motion prediction equation, GMPE) for Southeast Mexico. We suppress site effects obtained from Earthquake Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (EHVSR) as a reliable estimate of site effects. (The attenuation model was built as a function of magnitude and hypocentral distance)). We used 86 seismic events with 5.0 ? Mw ? 8.2 (earthquake recordings for the 9/7/2017, Mw8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake are included), and distances between 52 ? R ? 618 km. They were recorded in nine stations of the Engineering Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (II-UNAM) accelerometric network installed in the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco and Veracruz. Site effects at each of these stations were estimated by using the average EHVSR. Then, by means of this spectral ratio the site effects were suppressed at each station and for every record. This work points out the need to remove the site effect in the GMPE. The current models overestimate this effect.
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Bozorgnia, Yousef, Mahmoud M. Hachem, and Kenneth W. Campbell. "Deterministic and Probabilistic Predictions of Yield Strength and Inelastic Displacement Spectra." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 1 (February 2010): 25–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3281659.
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This paper presents deterministic and probabilistic predictions of inelastic response spectra based on a comprehensive ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). Our analysis reveals that over a wide structural period range, the magnitude scaling for an inelastic system is higher than that for an elastic system, especially for ductility levels greater than 2 and magnitude greater than 6.5. Both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analyses show that the “equal displacement rule,” to estimate inelastic displacement, is valid for small to moderate magnitudes and/or for low ductility levels. However, it underestimates inelastic deformation even for long period structures if the earthquake magnitude is large and the structure needs to sustain a large ductility. Our study shows that an inelastic GMPE can easily be implemented as part of standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) packages to directly generate probabilistic hazard for inelastic response, avoiding possible over- or under-conservatism in approximating inelastic deformation from an elastic system.
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De Almeida, Thairone Ezequiel. "Gestão de Micro e Pequenas Empresas: Uma proposta pedagógica para o desenvolvimento de uma disciplina do curso de Engenharia de Produção." Revista Gestão da Produção Operações e Sistemas 14, no. 3 (July 1, 2019): 110. http://dx.doi.org/10.15675/gepros.v14i3.2609.
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O elemento central deste artigo foi realizar um exame sistemático dos principais itens existentes na literatura para elaborar uma proposta pedagógica no desenvolvimento da disciplina de Gestão de Micro e Pequenas Empresas (GMPE) do curso de Engenharia de Produção. Perante o contexto, buscou-se fazer um estudo exploratório nas diretrizes curriculares do curso e na literatura relacionada à gestão de empresas de pequeno porte. Como resultado, ressalta-se a construção de um quadro sinóptico para sistematizar o Plano de Trabalho Docente (PTD) e justificar a sua proposta pedagógica, metodologias, materiais textuais, recursos tecnológicos e processos de avaliação a serem utilizados nas aulas da disciplina. Dessa forma, espera-se que este estudo seja relevante do ponto de vista acadêmico, pois abrange a estruturação de um PTD da disciplina de GMPE para o curso de Engenharia de Produção, podendo ser adaptado para outras composições curriculares. As conclusões provenientes da pesquisa destacam o quanto é importante o planejamento educacional no ensino superior, bem como a relevância da abordagem de particularidades das micro e pequenas empresas no processo de ensino-aprendizagem do engenheiro de produção.
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Anderson, John G. "Quantifying the Epistemic Uncertainty in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard from Two Major Faults in Western Nevada." Earthquake Spectra 34, no. 2 (May 2018): 549–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/080717eqs156m.
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The probabilistic seismic hazards in the larger cities of western Nevada are dominated by the Mount Rose and Carson Range faults. These are normal faults; Reno and Carson City are on the hanging wall. This paper finds the sensitivity of the hazard posed by these faults to epistemic uncertainty of dip, slip rate, magnitude, and choice of ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for an earthquake that ruptures the length of each fault. SA(0.01 s) with exceedance probability of 2% in 50 years was determined for each branch of a logic tree for those properties. This paper uses tools of probability theory to characterize this logic tree distribution with a lognormal distribution function, and to suggest an estimate of uncertainty in the mean hazard. In this case, which should not be considered general, on the hanging wall, the uncertainties in fault dip and the choice of the GMPE are the dominant contribution to the standard deviation of the lognormal distribution function. Elsewhere nearby, uncertainties in fault slip rate dominate, while at larger distances uncertainties in the magnitude dominate.
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Rezaeian, Sanaz, Yousef Bozorgnia, I. M. Idriss, Norman Abrahamson, Kenneth Campbell, and Walter Silva. "Damping Scaling Factors for Elastic Response Spectra for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Active Tectonic Regions: “Average” Horizontal Component." Earthquake Spectra 30, no. 2 (May 2014): 939–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/100512eqs298m.
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Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and nonstructural systems can have other damping ratios. This paper develops a new model for a damping scaling factor ( DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE for damping ratios between 0.5% to 30%. The model is developed based on empirical data from worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Dependencies of the DSF on potential predictor variables, such as the damping ratio, spectral period, ground motion duration, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions, are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by the inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions show weak influence on the DSF. The proposed damping scaling model provides functional forms for the median and logarithmic standard deviation of DSF, and is developed for both RotD50 and GMRotI50 horizontal components. A follow-up paper develops a DSF model for vertical ground motion.
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Avital, Matan, Ronnie Kamai, Michael Davis, and Ory Dor. "The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results – a sensitivity study for two sites in Israel." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 2 (February 15, 2018): 499–514. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-499-2018.
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Abstract. We present a full probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel – one in the near field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty – modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty – are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence on the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the current version of the building code, grossly underestimates the hazard, by approximately 40 % in short return periods (e.g. 10 % in 50 years) and by as much as 150 % in long return periods (e.g. 10E−5). The analysis shows that this underestimation is most probably due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.
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Nasruroh, Amalia, Bambang Sunardi, Muhammad Fikri Hayqal Hiola, and Hendri Subakti. "SIMULATION OF PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION AND PSEUDO SPECTRAL ACCELERATION OF PALU EARTHQUAKE SEPTEMBER 28TH 2018." Spektra: Jurnal Fisika dan Aplikasinya 6, no. 1 (April 30, 2021): 49–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.21009/spektra.061.06.
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The devastating earthquake Mw 7.4 hit Palu City, Central Sulawesi on September 28th, 2018, at 17:02:44 WIB. A high tsunami followed it. More than 2000 people died as a result of the earthquake and tsunami disaster. The latest evidence shows that the earthquake was categorized as a rare super shear earthquake. The earthquake shaking that hit Palu City is relatively large. Acceleration data are not available at the study site due to the lack of instrumentation in the area. The Authors present a simulation of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) due to the earthquake in three locations Tatura Mall, Roa-Roa Hotel, and Antapura Hospital. PGA describes the maximum acceleration on the ground, while pseudo-spectral acceleration describes the acceleration of earthquake shaking from buildings with various floor numbers. Simulation of PGA and PSA to the three sites used three different Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) functions, BSSA14, CB14, and CY14, with the weighting of each Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) GMPE functions. The results of PGA simulation is about 0.22-0.23 g and show that in the three study site, it is more vulnerable to spectral acceleration period T=0.3 s or building with three floors or about 1-15 floors. These correlate with the level of damage caused by earthquakes which is more impact to relatively higher buildings.
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Hammal, Sofiane, Nouredine Bourahla, and Nasser Laouami. "Neural-Network Based Prediction of Inelastic Response Spectra." Civil Engineering Journal 6, no. 6 (June 1, 2020): 1124–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2020-03091534.
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The prediction of the nonlinear seismic demand for a given hazard level is still a challenging task for seismic risk assessment. This paper presents a Ground Motion Prediction Model (GMPE) for efficient estimation of the inelastic response spectra of 5% damped Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) systems, with Elastic-Perfectly-Plastic hysteretic behavior in terms of seismological parameters and structural properties. The model was developed using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with Back-Propagation (BP) learning algorithm, by means of 200 records collected from KiK-Net database. The proposed model outputs an inelastic response spectra expressed by a 21 values of displacement amplitudes for an input set composed of three earthquake parameters; moment magnitude, depth and source-to-site distance; one site parameter, the shear wave velocity; and one structural parameter, the strength-reduction factor. The performance of the neural network model shows a good agreement between the predicted and computed values of the inelastic response spectra. As revealed by a sensitivity analysis, the seismological parameters have almost the same influence on the inelastic response spectra, only the depth which shows a reduced impact. The advantage of the proposed model is that it does not require an auxiliary elastic GMPE, which makes it easy to be implemented in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology to generate probabilistic hazard for the inelastic response.
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Nahar, Tahmina Tasnim, Md Motiur Rahman, and Dookie Kim. "PSHRisk-Tool: A Python-Based Computational Tool for Developing Site Seismic Hazard Analysis and Failure Risk Assessment of Infrastructure." Applied Sciences 10, no. 21 (October 24, 2020): 7487. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10217487.
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To quantify the annual probability of earthquake ground motion (GM) exceeding a given threshold, the extensively used method named by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be adopted. The PSHA software made this method more effortless for estimating earthquake hazards for a seismic site. The main motivation of the PSHRisk-tool is to evaluate the PSHA by a user-friendly graphical interface as well as identify the intensities of GM, which will contribute to the most vulnerable condition for the infrastructure. This python-code based tool can demonstrate the source identification, probability distribution plot of magnitude and distance, formulate the hazard curve according to almost all ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The deaggregation for each intensity measure (IM) and the effect of seismic parameters in each GMPE can also be determined. Alongside this, the combination of the failure frequency and the hazard analysis for identifying risk assessment separates this tool from the other existing PSHA software. Accurate verification with analytical and existing test models and a case study inspires its acceptance rate. However, with the quickest and easiest way users can determine the seismic hazard analysis for any location. Failure risk analysis can be evaluated simply based on the structural failure parameters.
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Margaris, Basil, George Athanasopoulos, George Mylonakis, Christos Papaioannou, Nikolaos Klimis, Nikolaos Theodulidis, Alexandros Savvaidis, Vicky Efthymiadou, and Jonathan P. Stewart. "The 8 June 2008 Mw6.5 Achaia–Elia, Greece Earthquake: Source Characteristics, Ground Motions, and Ground Failure." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 2 (May 2010): 399–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3353626.
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The Mw6.4 Achaia–Elia (Greece) earthquake on 8 June 2008 was a right-lateral strike-slip event on a nearly vertical faul. Moment tensor solutions coupled with geologic structure and aftershock distributions suggest a fault strike of approximately 210° on a previously unmapped fault. Rupture appears to have been concentrated over a 10–25 km depth range and did not break the surface. The northern rupture limit appears to correspond to a NW-striking normal fault near the Kato Achaia coastline. The mainshock was recorded by 27 accelerometers at distances from the surface projection of the fault ranging from approximately 15 to 350 km. The data demonstrate faster distance attenuation than predicted by contemporary Greek ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). On the other hand, an NGA GMPE generally captures the distance attenuation but shows underprediction bias at short and long periods. Despite the presence of a range of site conditions at recording stations in the city of Patras, we find no obvious effect of sediment depth on response spectra. We show the possible presence of rupture directivity at the north end of this bilateral rupture, but no apparent effect at the southern end. We described several relatively well-documented incidents of nonground failure and ground failure associated with liquefaction/lateral spreading and landslides.
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TAKAI, Nobuo, Takahiro MAEDA, Michiko SHIGEFUJI, and Tsutomu SASATANI. "Single-Site Ground Motion Prediction Equations (SS-GMPE) of Response Spectra." Journal of JAEE 15, no. 1 (2015): 1_18–1_37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5610/jaee.15.1_18.
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Zhang, Meng, and Hua Pan. "Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion." Natural Hazards 108, no. 3 (June 3, 2021): 2971–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04809-3.
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AbstractThe lognormal distribution is commonly used to characterize the aleatory variability of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, this approach often leads to results without actual physical meaning at low exceedance probabilities. In this paper, we discuss how to calculate PSHA with a low exceedance probability. Peak ground acceleration records from the NGA-West2 database and 15,493 residuals calculated by Campbell-Bozorgnia using the NGA-West2 GMPE were applied to analyze the tail shape of the residuals. The results showed that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) captured the characteristics of residuals in the tail better than the lognormal distribution. Further study showed that the shapes of the tails of the distributions of residuals with different magnitudes varied significantly due to the heteroscedasticity of the magnitude; the distribution of residuals with larger magnitudes had a smaller upper limit on the right side. Moreover, the residuals of the three magnitude ranges given in this study were more consistent with the GPD of different parameters at the tail than the lognormal distribution and the GPD fitted by all the residuals, leading to a bounded PSHA hazard curve. Therefore, the lognormal distribution is more representative up to a determined threshold, and the GPD fitted to the residuals of three ranges of magnitude better characterizes the tail for PSHA calculation.
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Campbell, Kenneth W. "Comprehensive Comparison among the Campbell–Bozorgnia NGA‐West2 GMPE and Three GMPEs from Europe and the Middle East." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 106, no. 5 (July 26, 2016): 2081–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120160024.
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