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Bonacorsi, Laura. "Essays in International Trade." Thesis, Boston College, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:107278.
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Thesis advisor: James E. AndersonThe gravity model proved to to be one of the most successful framework for analyzing international trade flows, being referred to as the “workhorse” in the international trade literature (Head and Mayer (2014)). Microfoundations to this model has been provided in Anderson (1979) and it has often been employed to estimate the effects of a variety of trade policies (see Cipollina and Salvatici (2010) for a meta-analysis on reciprocal trade agreements, Rose (2000) for the effects of currency unions). The two chapters of this dissertation, which are independent empirical pieces, both make use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, although with different purposes. The first chapter focuses on the specification of the gravity equation. In the second chapter, instead, gravity equations are employed for assessing the relationship between trade and growth: in fact, their estimation represents the first step for the creation of an instrumental variable for export flows. In the first chapter, a solo-authored work titled Scale Economies in European Trade, I show that European data support the existence of economies of scale in trade flows. The impact of trade costs on trade flows, in fact, is assumed to be constant by almost all empirical studies employing the gravity framework. Anderson et al. (2016) are the first to depart from this assumption, allowing trade costs to vary as a function of trade volumes. Their model nests the more traditional one and hence can be used to test for the existence of these scale economies, which are shown to be in place for trade between US and Canada. For my analysis I construct a comprehensive dataset for European trade in manufacturing over a long time span (from 1980 to 2013), on which I employ the same methodology. My results show that scale economies in trade costs are indeed a strong empirical fact outside of the American continent, and this holds for all the 26 manufacturing sectors considered, with an estimated average of 0.64% decrease in trade costs given by a 10% increase in trade volume. The focus on Europe allows me to test whether the EU expansion affected these economies of scale. While this is not true on average, it seems to be the case for some industries: trade with a EU partner entails scale elasticities 50% lower than trade with a non-EU member for 11 sectors out of the 26 considered. I also investigate whether scale elasticities can be rationalized by the existence of informational asymmetries. Using detailed product-level data, I do not find evidence that the degree of product homogeneity can account for the observed cross-sectoral variation. The scale coefficients are instead linked to country-specific institutional variables, such as the level of corruption: exporting to the country whose level of corruption is the lowest in the sample entails half the scale elasticity than exporting to the most corrupted one. In other words, corruption depresses trade to an higher extent on longer distances. In the second chapter, joint with Carlo Altomonte and Italo Colantone and titled Trade and Growth in the Age of Global Value Chains, we revisit the relationship between trade and income, taking into account the recent surge of global value chains (GVCs). First, we develop a new geography-based, time-varying instrument for export, exploiting the sharp increase (almost tripling) in the maximum size of container ships between 1995 and 2007. This global shock has an asymmetric impact on bilateral trade flows across countries, affecting disproportionately more countries endowed with a larger number of deep-water ports, which are needed to accommodate the new, much larger ships. We exploit this heterogeneity for identification, building up the instrument for export in a gravity framework. Our result show that export has a positive effect on GDP per capita, with a 0.6 elasticity. Evidence at the country-level shows that this effect works through capital accumulation. Exploiting the decomposition methodology by Wang et al. (2013), we show that differences in the value added composition of exports matter for trade-growth nexus. We find evidence in favor of an income premium for countries that upgrade their positioning in GVCs, whereas the degree of participation to GVCs does not seem to play a role. Consistent with this finding, we show that countries whose average level of upstreamness (a’ la Antras and Chor (2013)) increases the most over time exhibit a higher trade elasticity of income. Both papers indirectly deal with the effect of geographical distance on international trade flows. One of the strongest regularities in economics is certainly the negative role played on trade flows by the distance between origin and destination. Disdier and Head (2004), comparing 1,467 different studies, compute an average distance elasticity of trade of about -0.9. Hummels (2007) shows that the distance elasticity of trade does not seem to diminish over time, as it would do should distance be capturing only transportation costs, thanks to the technological developments witnessed in the transportation sector. Distance seems then to refer to trade costs in general, including institutional, policy and regulatory barriers that, also for historical reasons, often increase the further away countries are located. In the first paper, I show that the impact of distance on trade flows is not constant but varies with trade volumes. This corresponds with having a component of the composite friction described before, hidden in the distance term, being fixed and is consistent with micro-evidence on the export behavior obtained from firm-level data (Roberts and Tybout (1997)). It seems natural, then, to test whether some characteristics, either at the product-level or at the country-level, have a prominent role in explaining the non-linear effect that distance has on trade. My results find in level of corruption of the destination country an important determinant. In the second paper, we test whether the distance elasticity of trade varies as a function of the number of deep water ports on both the importer’s and the exporter’s shores, capturing the extent to which countries can trade via container vessels. The data support this claim for all the manufacturing sectors considered, showing that geographical distance, even though non-exclusively, captures the incidence of transportation costs on export flows
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2016
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Wu, Wei Trindade Vitor. "Three essays on trade gravity model." Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri--Columbia, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/6156.
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Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on Feb 17, 2010). The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file. Dissertation advisor: Dr. Vitor Trindade. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Cain, Donneil. "The gravity model of international trade : econometric properties and applications." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2017. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/43400/.
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This thesis reviews the literature, simulates and applies the Gravity Model of International Trade. The gravity model is widely used in international trade to examine trade flows within a network of exporters and importers. It describes the push and pull factors of trade flows and is fast becoming the most favoured tool when estimating the welfare effects of a trade policy. Therefore, estimating an accurate baseline equation is critical to correctly identify the welfare effects of trade and accompanying trade policies. Recent developments in the literature on the gravity model have helped in this regard. Chapter 1 presents a summary. The literature identifies several estimation issues and prescribes several actions that could be taken to best estimate the gravity model and minimize potential bias in the coefficient(s) of interest. With the objective of minimizing the bias on the coefficient(s) of interest, this thesis, in Chapter 2, builds on the literature by simulating and estimating the gravity model using varying assumptions about the data generating process (dgp) of the errors, conditional mean and sample. The findings from these simulations are then used to guide the application (Chapter 3) of the gravity model to trade among Caribbean Community (CARICOM) members and trade between CARICOM members and the rest of the world (ROW). Subsequently, in Chapter 4, the gravity model is used as the basis for a general equilibrium framework to investigate the importance of international borders, regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the potential impact of deeper integration in the form of a currency union among CARICOM members. The welfare implications for CARICOM members, associated with being a member of the RTA and adapting a common currency, are presented in Chapter 4 along with several recommended trade policies and areas for future research.
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Marchildon, Miguel. "An Application of the Gravity Model to International Trade in Narcotics." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/37258.
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The transnational traffic of narcotics has had undeniable impacts on international development, for instance, stagnant economic growth in Myanmar (Chin, 2009), unsustainable agricultural practices in Yemen (Robins, 2016), and human security threats in Columbia (Thoumi, 2013). Furthermore, globalization is a catalyst for the transnational narcotics traffic (Robins, 2016; Aas, 2007; Kelly, Maghan & Serio, 2005). Several qualitative studies exist on the transnational narcotics traffic, yet few quantitative studies examine the issue. There is thus an opportunity for novel quantitative studies on the general question: “what are the main economic factors that influence the transnational traffic of narcotics between countries?” This study looked at the specific question: “are distance and economic size correlated with the volume of narcotics traffic between countries?” This study chose the gravity model as it centres on bilateral trade (Tinbergen, 1962), accounts for trade barriers (Kalirajan, 2008) and is empirically robust (Anderson 2011). This study defined a basic functional gravity model relating a proxy of the narcotics traffic to distance and economic size. Four augmented functional gravity models were also advanced to address omitted variable bias. The research was limited conceptually to cross sectional and pooled time series data. In addition, the data was also limited practically to a convenience sample of secondary data drawn from: the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) (2016a) Individual Drug Seizures (IDS); the World Bank’s (2016) World Development Indicators; and the CEPII’s GeoDist (2016) datasets. This study used a novel “dosage” approach to unit standardization to overcome the challenge posed by the many measures and forms of narcotics. The study used the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator as its estimations of the gravity model are consistent (Gourieroux et al., 1984), allow heteroscedasticity (Silva & Tenreyro, 2006) and avoid back transformation bias (Cox et al., 2008). The evidence analyzed in this study seem to indicate that the gravity model may not be applicable in its current form to the transnational narcotics traffic among countries that report drug seizures to the UNODC. However, the sampling method and the choice of proxy are likely to influence these findings. Moreover, the low explanatory power of the gravity model for the narcotics traffic, reflected in the values of the pseudo-R-squared coefficient of determination, indicates that other factors are at play. For instance, authors such as Asad and Harris (2003) and Thoumi (2003) argue that institutions could be a key factor in the narcotics traffic. Future empirical research into this topic could build on the theses findings to introduce new proxies and to explore alternate theoretical frameworks.
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Xu, Albert. "Investigating the Effects of Cultural Distance on the Gravity Model of Trade." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1568.
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The gravity model of trade is the workhorse model for international trade. In its most basic form, it stipulates that bilateral trade flow between two countries is proportional to the countries’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the distance between them. According to the gravity model, the elasticity of trade flows to distance, or the “distance effect,” has increased since the early 1970s, a confounding empirical result known as the “distance puzzle.” This paper investigates the distance effect more closely by decomposing it. More specifically, it aims to isolate the effects from culture, constructing measures of cultural distance and examining their effects on bilateral trade levels and the distance effect. The results show that cultural differences do not account for the distance puzzle. However, it also finds that cultural distance has both a substantial and statistically significant effect on bilateral trade.
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Nguyen, Duc Bao. "Essays on regional trade agreements and international trade." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019BORD0203/document.
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Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACRThe subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner
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Garmaza, Volha. "The Impact of Immigration on Trade : The case of Sweden." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-14906.
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The considerable increase in international trade and migration flows can be treated as the consequence of globalization and economic integration process during the recent years. The issue of immigration impact on trade has been studied a lot since the middle of 1990s and a significant and positive effect was found in most of the cases. This paper contributes to previous studies by investigating the impact of immigrants from 155 countries on Sweden’s exports to and imports from these countries during the period from 1980 till 2010, using an augmented gravity model. The impact of immigrants on exports and imports is studied separately by looking at the whole period results and the dynamic of changes within the period. Besides this the influence of immigrants’ home countries peculiarities (by dividing them on regions and level of development) and immigrants’ type (immigrant stock, immigrant flow and asylum seekers) is tested. To the best of my knowledge it is the first study that implements this variety of classification tests for Swedish data. The empirical results suggest that a 10 % increase in immigrant stock facilitates a 1% increase in exports to and a 0.5% increase of Sweden’s imports from the immigrants’ home countries. There is a tendency of gradual decrease of immigrants’ impact on both exports and imports within the period under consideration. According to the different classification tests the immigrants from Africa have the largest impact on Sweden’s exports, though European immigrants have the largest impact on imports; Swedish foreign born population from developed countries more facilitate trade than those who are from developing; new comers and temporary immigrants have almost the same impact on exports as the total immigrant stock, but there is even slightly negative effect on trade by asylum seekers.
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Shang, Xia. "Food safety impacts on U.S. domestic meat demand and international red meat trade." Diss., Kansas State University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/32729.
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Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Glynn Tonsor
Few things facing the U.S. meat industry in recent years have garnered more attention of economic researchers than food safety events, policies, and mitigation efforts. This dissertation has two main essays and themes focusing on both domestic and international food safety issues. Contributing new insights to this situation, the impacts of FSIS (Food Safety Inspection Service) recalls on consumer meat demand in the United States are estimated by a series of Rotterdam models in the first study using monthly grocery-scanner data. Multiple model specifications are employed to further assess effects across meat products and geographic regions. Recall variables are constructed separately as beef E. coli recall, beef non-E. coli recall, pork recall, and poultry recall variables to facilitate finer assessment of demand impacts. Results suggest beef E. coli recalls significantly reduce the demand for ground beef contemporaneously among most, but not all, regions in the United States. The ultimate finding of food safety effects neither being fully homogeneous nor entirely heterogeneous warrants appreciation. In order to protect domestic consumers and meat industries from potential food safety hazards, some member countries of the WTO implement sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures as non-tariff barriers. The second study focuses on investigating the determinants of red meat trade patterns and associated impacts of SPS regulations. This analysis uses multiple product-level gravity equation models and PPML (Poisson Pesudo Maximum-likelihood estimators to overcome sample selection bias and heteroscedasticity and examine the trade relationship among other factors. Results indicate that, trade values of frozen beef and pork are significantly reduced by the implementation of SPS measures. Also, the spillover effects across meat products on trade were detected which provides essential information to the meat industry, policy makers, and trade representatives.
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Paz, Lourenço Senne. "Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/264.
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Previous issue date: 2003-07-22Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.
Esforços recentes visando um comércio mundial mais livre, como OMC/GATT ou Acordos de Comércio Preferenciais regionais, foram postos em dúvida após McCallum(1995) ter encontrado um grande efeito de fronteira entre os Estados Unidos e o Canadá. Desde então, tem havido uma grande quantidade de pesquisa sobre esse assunto, empregando a equação gravitacional. Essa dissertação possui dois objetivos. O primeiro objetivo é revisar a literatura recente sobre a equação gravitacional, incluindo seus usos, especificações econométricas e os recentes esforços de prover fundamentos microeconômicos para ela. O segundo objetivo é a estimação do efeito de fronteira do Brasil utilizando dados de comércio entre os estados brasileiros e dentre estes e os demais países do mundo. Utilizou-se um modelo Tobit com dados cross-section empilhados pelo ano. O menor efeito de fronteira estimado foi de 15, que implica que os estados brasileiros comerciam 15 vezes mais entre eles do que entre eles e os demais países. Para descobrir que partes dos efeitos de fronteira estimados podem ser atribuídos aos verdadeiros custos de comércio e qual parte pode ser atribuída ao resultado da endogeneização do problema de localização da firma, é preciso que se realizem pesquisas
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Mebratu, Ashagrie Kefyalew. "Does religious similarity influence the direction of trade? : Evidence from US bilateral trade with other 168 countries." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-17478.
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Despite interest in the influence of religion on economic activity by early economists like Adam Smith, modern economists have done little research on the subject. In light of the apparent religious fervour in many parts of the global economy, economists' seeming lack of interest in studying how religious cultures enhance or retard the globalization of economic activity is especially surprising. In general, trade theories have given less weight towards the reason for trade explanation on demand side. As a contrary to H-O theory Linder had proposed a theoretically sound and empirically consistent trade theory with a new claim for the reasons why countries trade on the demand side. To fill this gap, I use international survey data on religiosity for a broad panel of countries trading with US to investigate the effects of church attendance and religious beliefs on trade. The beliefs are, in turn, the principal output of the religion sector, and the believer alignment to a specific denomination measures the inputs to this sector. Hence, I used an extended gravity model of international trade to control for a variety of factors that determine trade, and I used two regression methods, OLS and WLS, to exploit the model to its fullest. I find that the sharing of same religious cultures by people in different countries has a significantly positive influence on bilateral trade, all other things being equal. These results accord with a perspective in which religious beliefs influence individual traits that enhance trade and economic performance in general. And my attempt to magnify religion as a means to trade is only a derivation of Linder’s overlapping demand theory.
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Andersson, Jesper, and Linn Sundqvist. "The effects of the EU-Mexico Free Trade Agreement on trade flows." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-37556.
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This bachelor thesis examines the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Mexico and the countries that resembles the European Union(EU) prior to the expansion in 2004, hereafter(EU15). The purpose is to analyze the effects of the FTA between the trading parties and investigate whether the FTA has resulted in positive effects on export volumes. The model includes 16 countries and is estimated with panel data between the years 1997-2016. We apply a gravity model as econometric framework and perform two regressions, one with fixed effects and one with random effects. Our results suggest that export volumes from Mexico to the EU on an aggregated level have increased for Mexico and the EU has increased. However, in contrast to previous estimates, our results show that the FTA have generated negative effects on trade creation between the trading parties.
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Olofsson, Casper, and Joel Wadsten. "Forecasting Forestry Product Trade Flow in the European Union : A study using the gravity model." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik och samhälle, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-64159.
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The purpose of this study was to examine the factors affecting the trade flow on forestry products within the European Union. A gravity model was used to estimate the factors affecting the trade flow. The study used a panel data set with observations of two forestry commodities between 28 EU member countries over the years 2005 to 2014. The commodities are Wood chips and particles and Industrial roundwood. The parameters are estimated with fixed effects, the result indicated for Wood chips and particles that exporting countries GDP affect the trade flow positivly (0.64) and the importing countries GDP affect positively aswell (0.36). For Industrial roundwood the exporting countries GDP affect the trade flow negatively (-0.69) and the importing countries GDP affect positively (0.80). With the estimated parameters a forecast of Wood chips and particles over the years 2015 to 2020 was made, the forecast indicated an increase in the trade flow value with 27.2%
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Xiao, Jing. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on International Trade: An Empirical Study of China." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-3732.
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This paper investigates the impact of inward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) on international trade of China empirically on the country level by using panel data from 1984 to 2007. Two separate transformed models which are based on the gravity equation and refer to the econometric models of some previous studies, are used in this paper to estimate the effect of FDI inflows on exports and imports respectively. The estimation results confirmed the complementary relationship between FDI inflows and trade of China both on exports and imports, which has also been supported by previous empirical studies.
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Gkoutsampasoulis, Nikolaos. "Euroland - The effect of Euro on international trade : Are there winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''?" Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-13856.
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This paper examines whether European Monetary Union (EMU) countries share fairly the effect of their membership in Eurozone (EZ) or whether are winners and losers in this ''Euro-game''. By using panel data of 27 European Union (EU) Member States for the period 2001-2012 in the context of a gravity model, we focus on estimating the Euro’s effect on bilateral trade and we detect whether this effect differs across the Member States of EZ. Two estimation methods are applied: Pooled OLS estimator and Fixed Effects estimator. The empirical results come to the conclusion that the individual country effects differ and are statistically significant, indicating that EMU’s effect on trade differs across the Member States of EZ. The overall effect of the Euro is statistically insignificant, regardless the estimation method, demonstrating that the common European currency may have no effect on bilateral trade.
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Ahcar, Olmos Jaime Rafael. "An inquiry on Regional Trade Integration and Trade Potentials." Thesis, Paris 9, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA090055/document.
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Dans un contexte où les négociations commerciales multilatérales languissent dans une impasse, les accords commerciaux régionaux ACR prennent de l’élan. Cette thèse doctorale cherche à faire avancer la connaissance sur ce domaine. C’est grâce au modèle de gravité du commerce que trois chapitres supportés par des analyses économétriques appliqués ont été mis au point.Le premier chapitre examine les effets sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce attribuables aux ACR, le système généralisé de préférences (SGP) et l’appartenance à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce OMC. Plusieurs spécifications économétriques et techniques d’estimation ont été testées. Particulièrement Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), qui se présente comme la technique la plus recommandée pour contenir des biais bien connues et des problèmes d’endogénéité. Cette recherche a été conduite avec un modèle de gravité du commerce international qui comporte 153 pays sur la période 1980-2012. Les résultats montrent systématiquement qu’un effet positif et significatif sur les flux bilatéraux de commerce est à attendre après l’entrée en vigueur d’un ACR. De même, des effets positifs mais peu importants, voir nuls sont accordés à la participation au sein de l’OMC. La spécification qui utilise PPML et qui contrôle l’influence de l’hétérogénéité inobservable montre un effet non-significatif pour le SGP. Le deuxième chapitre, coécrit avec mon directeur de thèse Jean-Marc Siroën, explore quel est l’effet de l’hétérogénéité des ACR sur le cadre de l’approfondissement de l’intégration. Nous envisageons pouvoir déceler si les ACR qui sont plus profonds contribuent plus à la création de commerce que ceux qui sont moins profonds. Nous avons recours à deux bases de données récemment ouverts au public. La première appartenant à l’OMC et la deuxième a la World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA). Nous procédons à créer des indicateurs crédibles de l’approfondissement de l’intégration pour passer à les tester dans un modèle de gravité. Nous trouvons qu’un effet positif et significatif peut-être accordé aux accords les plus profonds, indépendamment que l’indicateur testé soit un indicateur additive où un indicateur obtenu par l’Analyse de correspondance multiple (ACM). De même cet effet est constaté pas seulement dans les accords qui comportent des clauses classiquement négociées sur le cadre de l’OMC, mais aussi dans les accords qui dépassent cette dimension. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à étudier l’existence des potentiels de commerce entre la Colombie et l’Union Européenne. Des prédictions dans l’échantillon après des estimations avec PPML et effets fixes qui varient dans le temps nous indiquent que des potentiels de commerce existent avec l’Autriche, la République Tchèque, la Finlande, la France, l’Allemagne, la Hongrie, la Suède et la Pologne. Dans le sens inverse la Suède, l’Irlande, la Finlande et Pologne détiennent une marge importante à gagner dans le marché colombien. Des tests de sensibilité ont été effectués pour garantir la robustesse de ces résultatsRegional trade agreements (RTAs) have surged in a context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations. This doctoral thesis intends to advance scientific knowledge in the field. Thus, thanks to a gravity model theoretical framework, three chapters of applied empirical econometrics analysis have been completed. The first chapter examines the effects of RTAs, the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) and World Trade Organization memberships on bilateral trade flows. I put into practice different econometric specifications and estimation methods, notably Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), which is the one that better seems to contend with well-known biases and endogeneity problems. I conduct this research with an international trade gravity model estimated across 153 countries from the year 1980 to 2012.I consistently found a strong positive impact of regional trade agreement RTAs on most specifications and low or non-significant results for WTO membership. The estimates from the PPML method that includes controls for unobserved heterogeneity show non-significant effects of the Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on trade.The second chapter, co-authored with my supervisor Jean-Marc Siroën, explores the effect of heterogeneity of RTAs in the scope of deep integration. We intend to determine if deeper RTAs promote trade more effectively than less ambitious agreements. We make use of two recently available data sets from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Trade Institute (WTI-DESTA) to generate credible indicators of deep integration. Additive and Multiple Correspondence Analysis derived indicators for the depth of the agreements are then computed and their significance is tested in a gravity model. We find that deeper agreements increase trade more than shallow ones, whereas the provisions they included are within or outside of the WTO domain.The third chapter investigates the existence of trade potentials between Colombia and the EU. I obtain in-sample predictions after the estimation of a gravity model with the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. I control for unobserved omitted variable bias by the inclusion of exporter and importer time varying fixed effects, and run a series of sensitivity analysis.Untapped trade potentials are found between Colombia and a group of EU countries in both directions of the trade flows. Exports from Colombia have a gap to bridge with Austria, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Sweden. In the other direction, Sweden, Ireland, Finland and Poland have an interesting margin to gain in the Colombian market
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Krisztin, Tamás, and Manfred M. Fischer. "The gravity model for international trade: Specification and estimation issues in the prevalence of zero flows." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2014. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4453/3/TheGravityModelForInternationalTrade2.pdf.
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The gravity model for international trade is one of the most
successful empirical models in trade literature. There is a long tradition to log-linearise the multiplicative model and to estimate the parameters of interest by least squares. But this practice is inappropriate for several reasons. First of all, bilateral trade flows are frequently zero and disregarding countries that do not trade with each other produces biased results. Second, log-linearisation in the presence of heteroscedasticity leads to inconsistent estimates in general.
In recent years, the Poisson gravity model along with pseudo maximum likelihood estimation methods have become popular as a way of dealing with such econometric issues as arise when dealing with origin-destination
flows. But the standard Poisson model specification
is vulnerable to problems of overdispersion and excess zero
flows. To overcome these problems, this paper presents zero-inflated extensions of the Poisson and negative binomial specifications as viable alternatives to both the log-linear and the standard Poisson specifications of
the gravity model. The performance of the alternative model specifications is assessed on a real world example, where more than half of country-level trade flows are zero. (authors' abstract)Series: Working Papers in Regional Science
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Buchanan, Katherine Ann. "The social, geographical, and structural environments of minor noble residences in Angus, 1449-1542." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/21135.
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Relying upon two common trends in modern castle studies, this exploratory study works to combine the landscape context and the spatial interaction of the main building to create an assessment of the spatial and social interaction between the main residential structure of a noble’s estate and the landscape features attached to surrounding property features. To explore questions about this kind of interaction this project has taken the sheriffdom of Angus, Scotland, between the year 1450 and 1542, to examine non-royal residences in an area that offered a diverse topography. This project aims to gain a better understanding of the surroundings of late fifteenth and early sixteenth century noble residences in Angus while contributing to the growing discussion of castles and their landscapes, and testing methods for addressing the spatial and social interaction between the main structure and the landscape features. Section A discusses the three source types used for compiling the dataset for this project within the context of three key categories needed to create a GIS dataset: location, object, and attributes. From the landscape features the mills and fishings were the most commonly mentioned and further details regarding the contents of the lordly landscapes were rare. Section B explores three methods of examining the relationships between the main residence and the landscape features: a modified RA and RRA values assessment, which measured levels of segregation within the noble residence site as a whole; a version of the gravity model, which helped identify the draw for interaction within the arrangement of the noble’s landscape; and network analysis questions, which facilitated a clear assessment of any connections between the use of structural terms and landscape features mentioned over both temporal and social contexts. This exploration of spatial and social interaction opens up a discussion about Scottish noble landscape creation and new methods for studying the relationship between the main structure and the wider complex of a noble residence.
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Yang, Shang-Ho. "THE IMPACTS OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE ON INTERNATIONAL PORK TRADE – AN EXTENSION OF GRAVITY MODEL." UKnowledge, 2012. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_etds/4.
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Food safety scares affect consumption behavior, and food safety and animal health issues are increasingly impacting international agricultural trade. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral-type disease, and has raised not only the concerns of animal health issue but also food safety issue. Over 58 countries in the world have experienced FMD outbreaks, and pork exports and imports among these countries are largely impacted. This dissertation focuses on how global pork trade is affected by FMD.
This dissertation consists of three parts: first, this study specifically focuses on the market of U.S. pork exports. Results show that disease-affected pork importers are potential traders with the U.S., and only importing countries with a vaccination policy are more likely to increase pork imports from the U.S. rather than those importers with a slaughter policy. Second, a further investigation focuses basic hypothesis on import demand of FMD-affected importers by using a gravity model with fixed-effects to show how pork trade is affected by FMD among 186 countries. Results confirm that pork export falls when an exporting country develops FMD. Exporters with a vaccination policy have larger negative impacts than those with a slaughter policy. Further, pork importers that develop FMD and institute a slaughter policy will import more pork, but importers with a vaccination policy import the same level of pork. Third, the findings of part one and two reveal that FMD-free pork exporters face different market opportunities when pork importers have FMD outbreaks. Hence, four major FMD-free pork exporters, such as Canada, U.S., Germany, and Spain, are further investigated. Results confirm that the impacts of foreign FMD have altered pork exporters differently. Germany has gained the most exports during foreign FMD outbreaks in pork importers; the U.S. is second; Spain is third; and Canada is fourth.
In sum, this dissertation contributes to the literature of gravity model when endogeneity and heteroskedasticity may coexist, when an extremely large number of zero observations are included, when single commodity for one specific exporter is analyzed, when a spatial econometric approach is compared, and when pork export market has been altered by foreign FMD outbreaks.
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Bista, Rishav. "THREE ESSAYS ON THE ROLE OF EXTENSIVE AND INTENSIVE MARGIN IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE." UKnowledge, 2012. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/6.
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This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the impact of various trade policies on the extensive (new trading relationships) and intensive (increase in trade of existing relationships) margins of trade, whereas past studies have been limited to aggregate trade flows. An inquiry into the extensive and intensive margins of trade reveals that total aggregate trade masks the heterogeneous trade creating effect of policy variables. Furthermore, this dissertation also takes into account the econometric issues that have plagued the traditional empirical model that analyzes the impact of these policies on trade.
The first chapter examines the impact of hosting and bidding for mega-events on exports. Rose & Spiegel (2011b) find that hosts and unsuccessful bidders (candidates) experience a similar positive impact on total aggregate exports. They attribute the Olympic effect to the signal a country sends when bidding to host the games. This chapter inquires whether this Olympic signal leads to new trading relationships or an increase in trade in existing relationships. The results indicate that only hosts (not candidates) experience a permanent increase in exports at the intensive margin. While hosting the Olympics is consistently correlated with a permanent deepening of existing trade relationships, it is at the expense of the number of trading relationships.
The second chapter examines the impact of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the extensive and intensive margin of imports. Accounting for several estimation issues that have plagued the literature, results indicate that the benefit of the WTO is realized entirely through the extensive margin. The results are in line with the literature that attributes WTO to reducing market uncertainty through tariff binds rather than reduction, thus increasing entry in the export market even when the applied protection is unchanged.
The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal episodes (fiscal stimuli and consolidation) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports. The results indicate that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in total exports, while a fiscal stimulus leads to a decrease in total exports. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in exports solely through the extensive margin.
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Ygge, Johan. "The Distance of Trade : A quantitative analysis of how the importance of distance has evolved in international trade." Thesis, Södertörn University College, School of Social Sciences, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-3286.
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Distance is of great influence when deciding whom to trade with. This thesis examines how the importance of distance in international trade has evolved. This is done using an extended generalized gravity model, which includes population, real exchange rate and a dummy variable for membership in the European Union. Using data for the EU27 and the four largest economies in the world outside of EU, this model estimates the effect of distance on trade from 1980 to 2005. This thesis shows that the impact of distance has evolved towards having a greater negative effect on trade during the observed years. The reason for this could be a development towards regional trade, at the expense of long-distance trade.
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Olsson, Agneta. "Sweden´s Affinity towards Czech Republic : - A Gravity Model Approach." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-15266.
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Abstract It is well known that geographical distances between nations cause differences in cul-tural resemblances as well as affinity. Defined, affinity is inheriting similarities between nations in familiarity, language and mutual understanding. It cause variations in the uni-lateral trade volume flowing towards the destination countries and can be estimated by a traditional gravity model (GM). So far Swedish affinity towards Czech Republic (CZ) has remained unexplored. Hence, this paper investigates Swedish firm´s export perfor-mance and affinity towards CZ, both through the aggregate export and the extensive margin (average number of exporters). The investigation aims to seek clarification of what particular factors influence unilateral export towards CZ as well as stronger affini-ty in contrast to similar markets. To answer those questions, a one sided GM is re-gressed on two gravity equations, covering panel data for 177 destination countries from year 1997 to 2006. Results are in line with the expected behavior of the GM and show evidently; distance as well as land lock features have negative effects on unilateral ex-ports to CZ. Additionally, evidence of positive influence on unilateral export is found for GDP and familiarity to the nation. Both regressions for the gravity equations are showing high goodness of fit for the panel data. Findings of positive residuals in both the equations conclude that Swedish export have stronger affinity to CZ and solider country characteristics than its resembling countries Slovenia and Slovakia. However, positive residuals also indicate larger export flows to CZ than motivated by the tradi-tional GM coefficients. Various explanations are suggested as origins for those, such as differences in purchasing power and regions, were Prague was found to be the most suitable option for export and other regions rather for outsourcing possibilities.
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Oberhofer, Harald, and Michael Pfaffermayr. "Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit: A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2018. http://epub.wu.ac.at/6020/1/wp259.pdf.
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This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UKs (EUs) exports of goods to the EU (UK) are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% (5.9% and 38.2%) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UKs real income between 1.4% and 5.7% under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Thuresson, Carin. "Contract Enforcement – And Its Impact on Bilateral Trade." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1316.
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Today it is well known that institutions have a significant impact on growth and development. Less research has been investigating how institutions and in-stitutional quality affect trade. This thesis will specifically examine the effect contract enforcement has on bilateral trade. Secure property rights and con-tract enforcement are important for a country’s productivity and growth.
The empirical analysis is based on the gravity model of trade to examine what explains the trade flows and more importantly what impact contract enforce-ment has on the bilateral trade. Instead of using one of the many existing sub-jective measurements of contract enforcement, an objective measurement called Contract-Intensive Money (CIM) is used.
The results show that contract enforcement of the exporting country has a greater impact on exports than that of the importing country. As expected the institutionally dependent sector of machinery and transport equipment requires a higher level of contract enforcement than the standardized food sector. It implies that the exporting country will have a comparative advantage in export-ing complex products and import simple products. The results also indicates that the effect on exports is higher when there is development of a country’s poor contract enforcement rather than improvement in already high-quality contract enforcement in the partner country.
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Badinger, Harald, and Fritz Breuss. "What has determined the rapid post-war growth of intra-EU trade?" Forschungsinstitut für Europafragen, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2003. http://epub.wu.ac.at/492/1/document.pdf.
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Based on the gravity model by Baier and Bergstrand (2001), we use a static and dynamic panel data approach to estimate the relative contributions of income growth, income convergence, and the reductions in tariffs and trade costs to the growth of intra-EU trade over the period 1960 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth was the major force, accounting for approximately two third of total growth. Trade liberalization still had a sizeable effect, accounting de facto for the rest of growth, while income convergence played only a minor role. Reductions in trade costs had no significant effect on the growth of intra- EU trade. The results turn out as robust against several robustness checks and the use of alternative estimators.Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Cezar, Vasconcellos Barros Rafael. "The effects of Financial & Institutional Systems on International Trade, Specialization and Foreign Direct Investment." Phd thesis, Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00957913.
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This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI).
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Habtu, Besrat, and Intisar Ahmed. "The effect of Mercosur on trade : How have Mercosur effected trade between member countries?" Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-38808.
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This thesis examines whether there is an effect of the Mercosur free trade agreement on export and import between member countries. The study uses an extended gravity model framework on a panel data between the years 1975 to 2017 for 34 countries, including the member countries. Two different regressions were run using OLS and country fixed effect. A Linder effect was also added to the regressions to further understand the impact on trade. The results show a significantly positive effect of the FTA on imports. The FTA yielded insignificant and significantly negative result for OLS and FEM respectively on exports.
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Alkan, Gozde. "Trade And Convergence: An Evaluation For Turkey And Eu-15." Master's thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613506/index.pdf.
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This thesis investigates the relation between trade and convergence for Turkey and EU-15 in the period 1980-2008. The countries and time period are selected because Turkey has intensive trade relation with EU-15, and these economies had experienced conversion in their economic structures and adopted liberal economic policies, as well as liberal trade policies in this period. Using panel data methods two equations are estimatedan income dispersion equation for the impact of bilateral trade on per capita income differences and a gravity model of trade for the impact of per capita income differences on bilateral trade. Overall findings of this study give strong evidence for the hypothesis that trade causes convergence, whereas weaker support for the thesis that convergence causes trade.
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Li, Xiaoqian. "The Effects of Food Safety Standards on Trade and Welfare: The Case of EU Shrimp Imports." UKnowledge, 2014. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_etds/30.
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This research explores the link between a gravity model and welfare frameworks and then applies the quantitative model system to analyze how trade and welfare is affected by the Minimum Required Performance Limits (MRPL) in the shrimp importing market of European Union.
The quantitative model system consists of two parts: first, this study uses the “phi-ness” gravity model to investigate the trade effects of MRPL on EU shrimp market. The “phi-ness” gravity model partitions the standard variables to avoid biased estimation caused by the correlation between time and country fixed effects and policy variables. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method is incorporated into the estimation in order to control for the zero valued observations.
Second, based on the theoretic foundation of the gravity model, this research sets up the specific nested Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) model of consumers’ utility and further explores the linkage between these two models. The nested CES model incorporates the effects of MRPL on consumers’ confidence in domestic food as well as foreign food imported from developed and developing countries.
The empirical results confirm a consistent fact with previous empirical studies: stricter MRPL has significant and negative effects on trade integration between EU and trading partners with lower level of food safety standards. The welfare analysis shows that the zero tolerance policy of MRPL standard would dramatically enhance consumers’ demand for domestic shrimps and foreign shrimps imported from developed countries but reduce the quantity of shrimp supplied from developing countries. It is also indicated that the increased level of MRPL lead to an increase in welfare of domestic consumers, suppliers in developing countries, and in total international trade, as well as a decrease in the welfare of domestic suppliers and foreign suppliers from developed countries.
The empirical results also indicate that the combination of GM and Welfare Approach can also be applied to research on other standards or other industries.
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Bampi, Sílvia Letícia. "Uma abordagem gravitacional da evolução do comércio potencial entre o Brasil e parceiros asiáticos selecionados." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2017. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/6244.
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O comércio internacional tem apresentado um crescimento mais expressivo que o produto interno das nações. A globalização das economias em conjunto com a ascensão das economias asiáticas ao comércio internacional, alteraram os modelos de consumo das economias industrializadas, mudando a estrutura internacional de comércio. Desta forma, com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade de expansão do comércio do Brasil com as economias asiáticas, dada a probabilidade de ampliação de seu crescimento e redução das práticas protecionistas, o presente estudo buscou estimar o comércio potencial do continente asiático com o Brasil no período de 2000 a 2014. Para tanto, utilizou-se a equação gravitacional através de dados em painel e efeitos fixos e uma amostra de 74 países. As estimativas identificaram que existem significativas possibilidades de expansão de comércio brasileiro com a Ásia, principalmente em relação as exportações que em valores representaria uma elevação neste fluxo de U$$ 22.540 milhões. Destaque para possibilidade de expansão dos fluxos de exportação do Brasil com Filipinas, China e Coréia do Sul, 313,57% (U$$ 538 milhões), 36,99% (U$$ 19.115 milhões) e 33,63% (U$$ 1.650 milhões), respectivamente. Além destes, Tailândia, Singapura e Malásia também apresentaram um potencial de comércio acima do efetivo, quando observado o Brasil como exportador. Nos anos examinados, as importações potenciais brasileiras destas economias ficaram aquém das efetivas.
International trade has shown more growth than the domestic product of the nations. Globalization of economies coupled with the rise of Asian economies to international trade has altered the patterns of consumption of industrialized economies, causing the trade international structure to change. Then, in order to verify the possibility the Brazil's trade expansion along with the Asian economies, given the probability of increasing its growth and reducing protectionist practices, the present study tried to estimate the potential trade of the Asian continent with Brazil from 2000 to 2014. For this purpose, the gravitational equation was used through panel data and fixed effects and a sample of 74 countries. The estimates have identified that there are significant possibilities of expansion with relation to the trade between of Brazilian and Asia, mainly when it comes to exports, which would represent an increase of U$ 22,540 million. For this reason it is important to emphasize the possibility of expanding the Brazil's export flow between Brazil and Philippines as well as Brazil and China and Brazil and South Korea, at 313.57% (US$ 538 million), 36.99% (US$ 19,115 million) and 33.63% (U$$ 1,650 million), respectively. Besides each of the latter, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia also showed a trade potential which was over the real flow. In the years herein studied, the Brazilian potential imports towards these economies were lower than the real ones.
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Lagringe, Frida, and Iisa Östring. "EU Membership in Times of Economic Turmoil : To what degree did EU and EMU memberships protect trade during the financial crisis of 2008?" Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-40049.
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This thesis examines whether EU and EMU memberships appeared to protect the member countries’ trade, measured in exports, during the 2008 global financial crisis. The panel data analysis is based on a country sample of 40 OECD and EU countries during the period from 2000 to 2016. By employing a pooled Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression and an augmented gravity model, we investigate how the EU and EMU countries’ trade was impacted in comparison to the average of the OECD countries’ trade during the crisis. The results indicate that being a member of the EU or the currency union did not pose additional protection, as the member countries’ trade seemed to be more negatively impacted by the crisis than the average trade in the OECD countries.
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Chung, Wanyu. "Three essays in international economics : invoicing currency, exchange rate pass-through and gravity models with trade in intermediate goods." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2014. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66297/.
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A large proportion of international trade is in intermediate goods. The implications of this empirical regularity, however, have not been exhaustively explored in several aspects. The main objective of the thesis is to fill in the gap by introducing trade in intermediate goods into several strands of literature in international economics. This thesis is a collection of three essays studying the implications of trade in intermediate goods for the degree of exchange rate pass-through (Chapter 2), firms invoicing currency choice (Chapter 3) and the performance of the gravity models (Chapter 4). In Chapter 2 I present a theoretical framework and show that back-and-forth trade between two countries is associated with low degrees of aggregated exchange rate pass-through. In Chapter 3 I focus instead on firm heterogeneity in the dependence on imported inputs. I show theoretically that exporters more dependent on foreign currency-denominated inputs are more likely to price in the foreign currency. I then test the theoretical prediction using an innovative and unique dataset that covers all UK trade transactions with non-EU partners from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Overall the results strongly support the theoretical prediction. Chapter 4 is a theoretical piece of work showing how the underlying trade structure alters the predictions of the gravity models. I relate gravity equations to labour shares of income. Given that these parameters are industry-specific, the results suggest that it is crucial to take them into account when the main research interest lies in sectoral differences in bilateral trade.
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Danielsson, Asako. "Does an FTA have an impact on trade flows? : An empirical analysis of the FTA between the EU and South Korea." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Nationalekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-34457.
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This bachelor thesis examines if a Free Trade Agreement (FTA hereafter) has a positive effect or not on trade flows. There are many FTAs in the world beside World Trade Organization (WTO hereafter) membership. Many empirical studies have been performed by different methods and most of them show a significant influence on trade flows. In this thesis the impact on the FTA between the European Union (EU hereafter) and South Korea is studied by using the Gravity Model in period between 2007 and 2016. Dummy variables which capture the impact on the implementation of the FTA since 2011 are constructed into the standard trade Gravity equation. In addition, several dummy variables, such as the distance between countries and culture characteristic variables are utilized. The results of two different regression models show that both a positive and a negative impact on the EU’s import from South Korea and a negative impact on South Korea’s import from the EU. Overall, all estimated coefficients used in the models show a significant effect on import trade flows between countries.
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Dal, Pizzol Antonio Carlos Cipriani. "Estimativas para o volume de comércio dos países BRICs com o uso da equação gravitacional." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2010. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/3055.
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O propósito central deste trabalho é estimar os fluxos de comércio internacional bilateral entre os países BRICs - Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China - em períodos futuros. Para estas estimações, são consideradas as previsões realizadas pela consultoria econômica Goldman Sachs (2001) que, além de detalhar valores estimados para o PIB e a renda per capita dos BRICs até o ano de 2050, apontam que estes quatro países estarão entre as seis maiores economias do planeta em torno de 2040. O estudo utiliza um modelo gravitacional baseado numa amostra de 57 países para o período 2000 - 2007, a fim de obter-se uma equação normal para explicar o comércio internacional no mundo atual. A aplicação de dois métodos de estimação - MQO e Tobit - gerou uma coleção de possíveis coeficientes, que foram testados técnica e qualitativamente, para escolher-se as duas equações mais adequadas para as previsões dos fluxos bilaterais de comércio dos BRICs. Finalmente, os coeficientes destas equações foram arranjados para, combinados a dados reais e às estimações de PIB e renda per capita futuros construídos pela Goldman Sachs, prever intervalos de confiança para o tamanho dos fluxos bilaterais de importação entre os BRICs num cenário de curto (2010), médio (2020) e longo prazo (2030). O modelo gravitacional aqui usado é um instrumento de forecasting, validando esta fronteira de utilização para a equação gravitacional de comércio. Seus resultados mostram que o volume de comércio 'intra-BRICs' crescerá mais intensamente do que o próprio PIB destes países, podendo se multiplicar 10 vezes entre 2010 e 2020, e 50 vezes entre 2010 e 2030, gerando uma maior interdependência que poderá estimular as relações articuladas entre estas economias para garantir a sustentabilidade de seu crescimento econômico.
The main purpose of this research is to estimate international trade flows for all the existent bilateral relations between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the future time. This process starts by considering the estimations made by the investment bank Goldman Sachs (2001), which released a study that not only estimated amounts for the GDP and GDP per capita for the BRICs until the year 2050, but also revealed that these countries will position themselves, no exception, between the six biggest economies of the world by around the year 2040. This study adopts a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in the world in current days. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of possible parameters was generated, which were all tested on a technical and on a qualitative basis, with the aim to choose the two most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). In this way, the gravity model is here a pure forecasting model, validating this bound of utilization for the instrument. The results are showing that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more intense than the GDP of these countries itself, meaning an unprecedented internationalization process featured by the construction of a web of high interdependence between these economies. Trade between the BRICs could rise 10 times within 2010 and 2020, and 50 times within 2010 and 2050. International trade among the BRICs will definitely be necessary for them to sustain economic growth.
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Yücer, Ayçil. "Le commerce intra-national et international des Etats Brésiliens : déterminants, structure et interdépendances." Thesis, Paris 9, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA090062/document.
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Cette thèse a pour ambition de transposer l'analyse du commerce international au niveau sub-national en examinant la structure et les déterminants du commerce entre états brésiliens, et avec les marchés internationaux. Dans un chapitre introductif, on présente les faits stylisés sur la le commerce brésilien en se concentrant essentiellement sur les caractéristiques des états brésiliens. Dans le premier chapitre, notre modèle de gravité, estime séparément les capacités d'exportation des états vers les marchés domestique et international. Les résultats montrent que les états les mieux classés en termes de capacités d'exportation vers le marché international ne se confondent pas avec les plus orientés vers le marché domestique. Dans le second chapitre, on utilise un modèle de gravité pour mettre en évidence les effets de création et de détournement de commerce ainsi qu’un un effet d’ « érosion des préférences ». Nous montrons que le MERCOSUR a permis d’augmenter le commerce des états avec les pays membres, sans effets significatifs sur le commerce inter-états ou avec les pays tiers. Les organisations internationales, suggèrent que le commerce en valeur ajoutée est une meilleure mesure pour analyser l’impact des échanges internationaux sur l’économie quand le contenu en importations des exportations est important. Dans un dernier chapitre, on calcule ainsi les valeurs ajoutées exportées des états brésiliens à partir d’un tableau Input-Output inter-états (2008) pour analyser et mesurer les spécialisations verticales entre les états. On estime également un modèle de gravité de commerce en valeur ajoutée qu’on élargit à un cadre trilatéral: l’état d’origine, l’état ré-exportateur et le pays importateurWith the ambition of transposing trade analysis to an intra-national level, we work on the determinants and the structure of trade among Brazilian states, as well as their trade with international markets. In an introductory chapter, we present the stylized facts concerning the Brazilian trade while focusing mainly on the states’ characteristics. In chapter 1, we estimate the states’ domestic and foreign market export capacities by a gravity model of trade. Results show that the states with better foreign export capacities are not necessarily the same as those more oriented to the domestic market. Then in the second chapter, we use a gravity model to shed light on MERCOSUR’s creation and diversion effects as well as its “preference erosion” effect on trade among Brazilian states. We show that MERCOSUR increased Brazilian states’ trade with member countries, but had no significant effect on either interstate trade or Brazilian states’ trade with third countries. International organizations suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure to understand the impact of trade on economy when import content in exports is important. Hence in a last chapter, we calculate the value-added exported by Brazilian states from an inter-state Input-Output table (2008) that we use to analyze and measure the vertical specialization between states. We also estimate a gravity model of trade in exported value-added that we extend to a trilateral frame: origin state, re-exporter state and importer country
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Tayara, Saeed. "Commerce international et investissements directs étrangers : complémentarité ou substituabilité ?" Thesis, Poitiers, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016POIT4001/document.
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Ce travail étudie, théoriquement et empiriquement, l'interaction entre le commerce international et l'investissement direct étranger (IDE), interaction qui a été un des principaux canaux de la mondialisation économique et de l'essor des chaînes de valeur mondiales dans la segmentation des activités de production. Les modèles théoriques montrent que le commerce international et les IDE peuvent se développer dans une relation de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. La nature de cette relation peut être la conséquence de facteurs exogènes, déterminants de la spécialisation des pays, ou le résultat de la stratégie endogène des firmes dans l'organisation de leurs activités à l'international. La validation empirique s'appuie sur une adaptation du modèle de gravité, en appliquant les techniques économétrique sur données de panel sur des données bilatérales pour la France au cours de la période de 1993 à 2012. Les estimations mettent en évidence une relation de complémentarité entre le commerce et l'IDE au niveau le plus agrégé. Cependant, une analyse comparative à un niveau plus désagrégé permet de trouver des indices de substituabilité et de complémentarité selon les groupes de pays partenairesThis work investigates, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been one of the key channels of economic globalization, and of the development of global value chains in the international segmentation of production. Theoretical models show that international and FDI may be substitutes or complements. The nature of this relationship may be the consequence of exogenous factors, determinants of country specialization, or the result of the endogenous strategy of firms in the organization of their international activities. The empirical validation relies on an adaptation of the gravity model, using panel econometrics with bilateral data for France during the 1993-2012 period. Estimates show a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI at the most aggregated level. However, a comparative analysis at a more disaggregated level reveals some signs of substitutability or complementarity according to the group of partner countries
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Leusin, Junior Sergio. "O efeito fronteira das regiões brasileiras: uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional." Universidade do Vale do Rio do Sinos, 2008. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/2762.
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Esta dissertação analisa o efeito fronteira do Brasil e de suas regiões para o ano de 1999. O efeito fronteira indica o viés do comércio doméstico em comparação com o comércio internacional. Esse efeito foi estimado empiricamente, utilizando-se dados de corte seccional, em um modelo gravitacional com os 26 estados brasileiros, mais o Distrito Federal e 40 países. Apesar de o Brasil ter se engajado em um processo de abertura comercial, como o ocorrido durante a década de 90, e ter participado de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio importantes como o Mercosul, constatou-se que o país e algumas de suas regiões apresentam elevados custos de fronteira. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o comércio entre estados brasileiros é 33 vezes superior ao comércio internacional desses estados. Para as regiões brasileiras, o efeito fronteira das regiões Norte e Nordeste, é significativamente maior daquele observado nas regiões Sul e Sudeste
This paper analyzes the border effect for Brazilian goods market and its regions in 1999. The border effect indicates the bias for domestic trade compared with international trade. This effect was quantified empirically by using cross-sectional data in a gravitational model for twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Federal District and forty other countries. Despite Brazil's involvement in commercial opening in the 90's, as well as important regional trade agreements such as Mercosul, we noticed that Brazil and some of its regions have high crossborder costs. The finding results of this equation suggest a trade 33 times higher between Brazilian states than the international trade of these states. Regarding each Brazilian region, the border effect found for intra-national trade among Northeast and North regions is significantly higher than the border effect for Southeast and Southern regions.
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Krützmann, Vanessa. "Comércio e crescimento: uma estimação para o Brasil a partir dos estados brasileiros." Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos, 2011. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/4535.
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A partir de 1990, diversos países, entre eles o Brasil, passaram por processos de liberalização comercial, esperando elevar suas taxas de crescimento econômico. Essa tendência de maior integração comercial influenciou diversos autores a buscar inferir os efeitos do comércio internacional sobre o crescimento econômico. No entanto, os artigos que encontraram uma relação negativa entre as barreiras ao comércio e o crescimento econômico sofrem ou do uso de indicadores de abertura comercial inapropriados ou de métodos econométricos questionáveis, especialmente no que se refere à endogeneidade do comércio. Frankel e Romer (1999) superaram este problema construindo uma variável instrumental, usando as características geográficas dos países que não são correlacionadas com a renda, especialmente a distância entre os parceiros comerciais e o seu tamanho. Esse modelo visava mensurar como o volume de comércio, e não mais a redução das barreiras ao comércio, impactou na renda de diversos países em 1985, já que uma redução de barreiras ao comércio influenciaria positivamente o comércio internacional. Seguindo esse modelo, esta dissertação busca estimar o impacto do aumento do comércio sobre a renda no Brasil, comparando o período do final dos anos 1980 e início dos anos 1990 (1989-1991) com um mais recente (2005-07), através dos atributos geográficos dos estados brasileiros, baseado em um modelo gravitacional. O principal resultado aponta para um forte impacto do aumento do volume de comércio sobre a renda per capita no Brasil no período mais recente, com o aumento de um ponto percentual no grau de abertura do país levando a uma elevação da renda per capita entre 6% e 7%.
Since the 1990s many countries, including Brazil, adopted trade liberalization measures expecting to increase their economic growth. This trend influenced many authors to search for signs of the effects of liberal trade policies on economic growth. However, the papers in the literature that claimed to find a negative association between barriers to trade and economic growth relied either on constructing inappropriate indicators of openness or on a questionable use of econometric methodologies, especially the failure to account for the endogeneity of trade. Frankel e Romer (1999) overcame this problem by using an instrumental variable, based on a country’s geographic attributes not related to income, notably its distance from trading partners and size. They sought to measure the impact of trade volume not trade barriers on growth in many countries in 1985, since the reduction of trade barriers would affect positively international trade. Following this methodology, this dissertation estimates the effect of the increase in trade flows on income of Brazilian states, comparing the period in the late eighties and early nineties (1989-1991) with one more recent (2005-07), using geographic characteristics of Brazilian states, based on a gravity model. The main result shows a significant impact of trade on per capita income in Brazil in the more recent period, with a one percentage increase in trade shares increasing per capita income by 6% or 7%.
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Millogo, Doslalo Albert. "Commerce et migrations internationales dans le bassin méditerranéen : cas de la France." Thesis, Toulon, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015TOUL2010/document.
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Les échanges dans la zone euro-méditerranéenne ont été caractérisés par une intensification des flux commerciaux au début des années 2000. A cette même période, la question migratoire a été mise en avant en raison d’une explosion de l’immigration clandestine dans les pays du sud de l’Europe. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier certaines conséquences économiques actuelles de ces migrations dans le cas de France. Dans cette optique nous abordons les questions liées à la relation commerce-migrations, à la politique migratoire, et à la localisation spatiale des immigrés en France. En utilisant des données récentes et en intégrant des paramètres jusque là peu utilisés, nous mettons en évidence des caractéristiques particulières de l’immigration en France. Nous apportons également des réponses quant a` la contribution des immigrés a` la production nationale, de même qu’a` l’accroissement du commerce bilatéral avec les pays d’origine. Les implications en termes de politiques économiques se situent d’une part dans la mise en œuvre d’une facilitation des opportunités d’aaires entre la France et les pays d’origine. Cela s’impose au regard de l’impact positif de l’immigration sur le commerce bilatéral. D’autre part, les difficultés relevées au niveau des politiques migratoires appellent a` une nécessaire harmonie de ces dernières, au plan européen, pour une gestion plus efficace. Cela passe encore par une implication des pays d’origine afin de faciliter l’immigration légale, et limiter les entrées clandestines. Enfin, la localisation spatiale des immigrés indique que leur concentration dans les pôles régionaux a un impact négatif sur leur contribution `a la production. La réponse peut se situer dans une analyse détaillée de la structure et du processus d’intégration des populations immigrésThe Euro-Mediterranean trade has grown up a lot in the early 2000. At the same time, the migration issue has been highlighted due to an explosion of illegal immigration in the Southern Europe countries. The aim of this thesis is to study some current economic impact this immigration in the French case. We address the issues of trade and migration relationship, migration policy, and spatial location of immigrants in France. Using recent data and shaping factors little used empirically, we highlight the specific characteristics of immigration in France. We also provide explanations to the contribution of immigrants to the domestic, as well as increasing bilateral trade with the country. In terms of economic policies, it lies firstly in the implementation of facilitating business opportunities between France and the countries of origin. This is necessary to take more profit from the positive impact of immigration on bilateral trade. On the other hand, problems identified in migration policies call for a necessary harmony of policies, at European level, for more effective management. Such objectives require the involvement of countries of origin to facilitate legal migration, and limit illegal entries. Finally, the spatial location of immigrants indicates that their concentration at regional level has a negative impact on their contribution to production. The solution may lie in a detailed analysis of the structure, and the integration of immigrant populations’ process
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TENTORI, DAVIDE. ""Volver": il tango dell'Argentina tra integrazione ed isolamento economico." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/2451.
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Questa tesi offre un’analisi complessiva della posizione e del ruolo giocato dall’Argentina nell’economia globale durante l’ultimo decennio, attraverso l’uso di diverse metodologie tipiche dell’analisi economica. La ricerca parte dall’analisi della dimensione economica interna del Paese, fornendo uno studio della struttura produttiva dell’Argentina e del suo sviluppo economico. In seguito l’analisi si focalizza sullo studio delle variabili determinanti dei flussi commerciali dell’Argentina con i suoi partners regionali tramite un’applicazione econometrica del modello gravitazionale. Infine, si concentra sull’analisi del ruolo dell’Argentina nella gestione dell’economia globale studiandone il ruolo nel Fondo Monetario Internazionale, nel G20 e nel MERCOSUR attraverso un approccio di International Political Economy. Il risultato principale è la scoperta dell’esistenza di un collegamento tra la dimensione interna e quella esterna. Infatti la persistente instabilità macroeconomica e inappropriate politiche economiche adottate a livello nazionale provocano una perdita di competitività globale che potrebbe danneggiare nel lungo periodo la performance economica dell’Argentina, ostacolandone il raggiungimento dello status di Paese completamente sviluppato. Inoltre, populismo e nazionalismo economico stanno isolando l’Argentina dal resto della regione sudamericana e dal mondo, portando il Paese verso la condizione di ‘pariah’ nelle relazioni internazionali.This thesis offers a comprehensive analysis of Argentina’s position and role within the global economy during the last decade, adopting different methodologies of the economic analysis. The focus of the research starts from the analysis of the domestic economic dimension of the country, providing a study of Argentina’s economic structure and development pattern. It then examines the study of the determinants of Argentina’s trading flows with its regional partners with an econometric application of the gravity model of international trade. It finally focuses on the analysis of Argentina’s global inclusion in the management of the global economy through the description of Argentina’s behavior in the IMF, the G20 and MERCOSUR with an approach taken from International Political Economy. The main finding is that there is a link from the internal to the external dimension, since persistent macroeconomic instability and inappropriate economic policies result into a lack of global competitiveness which might affect in the long run the economic performance of Argentina, preventing it from achieving the status of a completely developed country. Moreover, populism and economic nationalism are isolating Argentina from the rest of South America and the world, driving the country to the status of a ‘pariah’ in international relations.
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Meunier, Bogdan. "Complexity, diplomatic relationships and business creation : a cross-regional analysis of the development of productive knowledge, trade facilitation and firm entry in regional markets." Thesis, Paris 1, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PA01E001/document.
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Cette thèse adopte une approche analytique interrégionale de trois régions économiques pour évaluer les connaissances productives et la diplomatie dans le contexte d’intégration régionale, et en parallèle, les déterminants de la création d'entreprises. Du point de vue de l'intégration européenne, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthodologie de contrôle synthétique pour évaluer l'impact de l'adhésion à l'UE sur l'indice de complexité économique des nouveaux États membres d'Europe centrale et orientale. Nos résultats indiquent que l'adhésion à l'UE a joué un rôle catalyseur pour la connaissance productive des pays portant de faibles niveaux de complexité avant l'adhésion, permettant un taux de développement plus élevé dans la sophistication de l'espace d'exportation de leurs produits. En élargissant notre analyse à tous les pays européens et aux États d’Afrique du Nord, nous procédons dans un deuxième temps à l’analyse des déterminants du commerce des infrastructures institutionnelles et logistiques en élargissant le modèle de Gravité pour y incorporer des éléments de diplomatie (notamment la présence d’ambassades et d’ambassadeurs). Nos résultats démontrent les avantages des infrastructures immatérielles et matérielles ainsi que de l'activité diplomatique sur le commerce bilatéral des PECO et de l'Afrique du Nord, confirmant l'importance de ces variables en tant que moteurs de l'intégration régionale. Dans une dernière partie, nous concentrons notre analyse sur Fédération de Russie en tant que région géographique en introduisant une régression panel des déterminants de l’entrée et de la sortie d’entreprises. Cette évaluation empirique conclut que les défaillances institutionnelles et l’environnement politico-économique ont des effets significatifs sur la création et la destruction d’entreprises russes, avec une estimation robuste du prix mondial du pétrole (quelle que soit la différence entre les régions cibles) suggérant une forte exposition de chaque région russe à une crise mondialeThis thesis takes a cross-regional analytical approach of three distinct economic areas to evaluate productive knowledge and diplomacy in the context of regional integration alongside determinants of business creation. From the angle of European integration, we introduce a new synthetic control methodology to evaluate the impact of EU accession on the economic complexity index of new CEE member states its results indicating that accession to the EU acted as a catalyst for the productive knowledge of countries with low levels of complexity before accession, allowing a higher rate of development in the sophistication of their product export space. Expanding our analysis to include all European countries and North African states, we proceed in a second stage to analyse institutional and logistical infrastructure determinants of trade by extending the traditional Gravity model to incorporate elements of diplomacy (including the presence of embassies and ambassadors). Our results demonstrate the benefits of soft and hard infrastructure as well as diplomatic activity on the bilateral trade fixed effect CEE and North African countries, validating their importance of these variables as powerful drivers of regional integration. In a final part, we turn our analysis to the Russian Federation as a regional geography with a panel regression analysis of the determinants of firm entry and exit. The empirical evaluation concludes that institutional failures and the politico-economic environment exhibit statistically significant and economically meaningful effects both on the creation and destruction of Russian firms, with a robust estimate of the world oil price (irrespective of the difference in target regions) suggesting a possible high exposure of each Russian region to a global crisis
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Bednář, Milan. "Perspektivy Transatlantického obchodního a investičního partnerství: výhody a možná rizika." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-262321.
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It is possible that the economic condition of Europe after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 prompted idea of trade liberalization. This diploma thesis deals with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), a proposed free trade agreement between the European Union and the United States of America. Main goal of the thesis is to provide economic evaluation of the deal, and to assess the claim that TTIP would be beneficial for the European Union member states. Main used method is a theoretical analysis supplemented by regression analysis. The theoretical part is focused on basic economic principles of international trade and related concepts. Main tools used to assess this agreement are described in more detail as well. The analytical part deals with economic linkages between the two regions, with emphasis on the development and current status of non-tariff barriers to trade. The thesis also contains a summary of potential benefits and risks. Finally, a potential impact of TTIP on the Czech Republic and the issue of Brexit is presented. The European Union and the United States of America are linked by strong economic ties. However, trade barriers between those two entities still exist and hamper international trade. The analysis indicates that if the contract was to be impactful and significant, it must focus on a substantial reduction of bilateral non-tariff barriers to trade. This implies that TTIP could interfere with sectoral regulations. In addition, it is not certain that achieved revenues would be automatically higher than costs given the number of perceived risks. Panel data gravity models are used to quantify the potential impact of trade liberalization on export of goods of the EU28 countries to the USA. Significant elimination of trade barriers could increase EU exports to the USA by more than 20%.
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Premchit, Walliya. "The economic effects of ASEAN integration : three empirical contributions from the perspective of the new economic geography." Thesis, Strasbourg, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013STRAB017/document.
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Cette thèse comprend trois études sur l’impact de l’intégration commerciale et de la libéralisation des investissements de l’ASEAN suivant les recherches empiriques de la Nouvelle Économie Géographique (NEG). Les stratégies empiriques consistent à mesurer des coûts de commerce, l’accès au marché ainsi qu’à estimer les modèles de gravité théorique. La première étude examine le progrès de l’intégration commerciale et leur impact sur la performance exportatrice. La deuxième étude voit comment la libéralisation commerciale croissante affecte les inégalités régionales. La troisième étude examine l’impact des accords d’investissement sur l’attractivité des IDE des pays de l’ASEAN. Ces résultats mettent en lumière les avantages et défis de la Communauté Économique de l’ASEAN qui aura lieu à la fin de 2015This thesis concerns three studies on the impact of ASEAN trade integration and investment liberalization following empirical research agenda of the new economic geography (NEG). Empirical strategies deal with measuring trade costs, market access and the estimation of modern gravity models. The first study evaluates trade integration progress in ASEAN and its impact on export performance with help of trade costs and market access indicators. The second study examines how improved market access, though deepening trade liberalization, can impact regional inequality. The third study investigates the impact of investment agreement on FDI attractiveness of the ASEAN countries. The results help shed light on potential benefits and challenges ahead of the upcoming ASEAN Economic Community at the end of 2015
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Rudolph, Stephan. "The Gravity Equation and the Interdependency of Trade Costs and International Trade." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-64322.
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The gravity equation is probably the most important tool in international economics to explain and estimate trade flows. However, since the gravity equation is important for political decisions, it is very important to achieve reliable results from its empirical application. Thus, it is necessary to employ the gravity equation using a theoretically and empirically proper methodology. One important discussion addresses the implausibly high measures for the impact of trade cost proxies on exports that frequently appear, especially in older works. This problem became known as the "border puzzle" (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2001).
The aim of the study is to contribute to the discussion about the suitability of the gravity equation's empirical applications. The basic idea is that trade costs between two countries could additionally depend on the exports between these two countries and not only on the (more or less) exogenous proxy variables for trade costs, as they are normally used. In this study, a new theory of endogenous trade costs is provided which shows that iceberg trade costs are likely to depend on exports. An interaction between exports and trade costs (or the gravity function and a trade cost function) leads to a simultaneity problem. Moreover, this theory can be confirmed after estimating the gravity equation with an alternative econometric strategy: A simultaneous equation system using a theory-based index to compensate for the directly immeasurable trade.
A further target of the study is in its use of the comprehensive trade cost index to compute "multilateral resistances" of countries to trade, introduced in the trend-setting work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). These multilateral resistances are necessary to retrieve unbiased results from empirical gravity equations. A methodology was developed to make the heretofore unknown index of multilateral resistances visible.
The result of the simultaneity approach and the use of constructed data for bilateral and multilateral trade costs is that the estimated direct effects of variables influencing exports decrease. The proposed methodologies of this study could help to achieve more plausible and reliable results from the gravity equation as the "workhorse for empirical studies" (Eichengreen and Irwin, 1998) of international trade.
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Broll, Udo, and Julia Jauer. "How International Trade is affected by the Financial Crisis: The Gravity Trade Equation." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-150478.
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The study examines the effect of financial crises on international trade with a gravity approach and a large data set covering almost 70 importing and 200 exporting countries from 1950 to 2009. Thus it is possible to put the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ witnessed during the financial crisis 2008/2009, especially for South Asian countries, into a historical perspective. Both, the period for which the crisis is observed, and the level of the trading partners’ economic development constitute important factors to explain the negative effects of a banking crisis on international trade. As the analysis indicates, financial crises have a stronger negative effect on differentiated goods compared to overall export flows. In additionthe negative effects of financial crises persist even after the income effect is accounted for. The study therefore suggests that the increasing share of differentiated goods in inter-national trade might be one possible reason for the comparatively large effect of the recent financial crisis on international trade relative to previous financial turmoil in post-war economic history.
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Leromain, Elsa. "Essays in international trade : international fragmentation of production and trade costs." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E041/document.
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La présente thèse contribue au renouveau de la littérature empirique en commerce international en s’intéressant tout particulièrement à la fragmentation internationale de la production et aux coûts au commerce non-traditionnels. Dans le chapitre 1, je quantifie les conséquences de l'évolution de l’utilisation d’inputs étrangers sur le contenu factoriel du commerce en tirant profit des nouvelles caractéristiques des tableaux entrées-sorties mondiaux. Les variations du contenu factoriel du commerce sont conditionnées par la place des pays dans les chaînes de production mondiales. Le chapitre 2 analyse les liens entre les relations diplomatiques et le commerce à la lumière de l'interdépendance croissante entre pays découlant de l’internationalisation des chaînes de production. Conjointement avec Julian Hinz, nous montrons, grâce à une nouvelle mesure d’un choc diplomatique, que l’impact de ce choc sur le commerce dépend crucialement du type de bien considéré. Enfin, dans le chapitre 3 co-écrit avec Julian Hinz, nous introduisons une nouvelle mesure empirique des langues parlées à l’aide des données de Twitter. Nous l’utilisons ensuite pour évaluer l’incidence de la diversité des langues sur le commerce et le revenu réel en EuropeIn this dissertation, I contribute to the thriving empirical literature in international trade by looking specifically at the international fragmentation of production and non-traditional trade costs. In chapter 1, using the new features of global input-output tables, I quantify the impact of the recent changes in foreign input use on the factor content of trade. I found that the changes in the factor content of trade are driven by each country position in the global supply chains. The chapter 2 analyzes the links between political relations and trade in light of the growing interdependency between countries. In this joint work with Julian Hinz, using a new proxy fora negative shock to political relations between countries, we show that the impact of such a negative shock is crucially heterogeneous across traded goods. Finally, in chapter 3 co-authored with Julian Hinz, we introduce a new measure for spoken languages based on Twitter data. We then use this measure to evaluate the effect of changes in language diversity on trade and real income in different locations in Europe
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Patel, H. "A dynamic model of international trade." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2014. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1433156/.
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This thesis studies an international trade game modelled as a coordination game, where countries interact by following a simple behavioural rule of trying to reduce the gap between the maximal payoff and their own payoff. Countries are allowed to choose from one of two strategies – E (integrate into the world economy) or A (remain in autarky). D’Artigues and Vignolo [33] find that in this coordination game, the desire to imitate the leading country is frustrated by the impossibility of doing so. Hence, paradoxically, the desire of convergence into the world economy may lead to a more partitioned world economy. Envy is found to be the central motive behind developing countries opting for rejection of globalisation, and with sufficiently large heterogeneity in payoffs, spiteful behaviour overcomes imitation. The presence of envious people in a class of symmetric coordination games helps players to coordinate on a particular strict Nash equilibrium, which is always risk-dominant. This thesis first analyses the trade dynamics for a simple 2-country and a 3-country model and then derives conclusions on the more general n-country model. Results for the first trade model are based on the model output obtained for strict equilibria and strictly stable states of the trade game via numerical computations. This model is then extended by allowing countries to choose intermediate strategies, so that they can choose the level of integration with the world economy by a small strategy size δ>0. The trade dynamics for this continuous strategy trade game model are then derived for the 2-country scenario, which suggest that the lagging country can catch up with the leading country, leading to non-existence of any long-term equilibria.
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Silva, Geisiane Michelle da. "O impacto da crise financeira de 2008 sobre as exportações paranaenses: uma aplicação do modelo gravital." Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana, 2014. http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/handle/tede/2153.
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The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on Paraná´s exports through Gravity Model. The Gravity Equation estimated used as the dependent variable the exports of Paraná and as independent variables the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and population of the state, GDP and population of importers countries of products from Paraná, the distance in kilometers between the state´s capital and the capital of the importer country, commodities prices in the international market, the area of importers countries and the dummies crisis, China, NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUR. The Equation was estimated using panel data models by Pooled, Fixed Effects and Random Effects. The tests of Chow, Hausman and Breusch-Pagan LM indicated that the best model to be analyzed is the Random Effects. The tests of Breusch -Pagan and Wooldridge indicated, respectively, the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. Thus, the Random Effects model was estimated with heteroscedasticity correction, with correction for autocorrelation and both fixes. According to the Equation estimated by the Random Effects model with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation correction, the variables GDP and population of Paraná, GDP and population of importers countries and commodities prices were statistically significant and their coefficients showed, with the exception of the Paraná´s GDP, a positive relationship with the Paraná´s exports. The variables distance and area of importers countries were statistically insignificant and their coefficients showed an inverse relationship with exports of Paraná. The dummies China, NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUR were statistically insignificant. Their coefficients showed a positive relationship between the Paraná´s exports and China and MERCOSUR and negative with NAFTA and the European Union. The dummy crisis was statistically significant, indicating that reduction in demand caused by the global financial crisis led to a reduction of 11,68% in Paraná´s exports. However, between 2008 and 2009, the Paraná´s exports fell by 26,3%. Thus, the occurrence of crisis partially explained the drop in exports of Paraná between 2008 and 2009. This can be explained by non-tariff barriers imposed by countries in response to the financial crisis.
O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o impacto da crise financeira de 2008 nas exportações do Paraná através do Modelo Gravitacional. A Equação Gravitacional estimada utilizou como variável dependente as exportações do Paraná e como variáveis independentes o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) e a população do estado, o PIB e a população dos países importadores de produtos paranaenses, a distância em quilômetros entre a capital do estado e a capital do país importador, o preço das commodities no mercado internacional, a área dos países importadores e as dummies crise, China, NAFTA, União Europeia e MERCOSUL. A Equação foi estimada por meio de dados em painel pelos modelos Pooled, de Efeitos Fixos e de Efeitos Aleatórios. Os testes de Chow, Hausman e LM de Breusch-Pagan indicaram que o melhor modelo a ser analisado é o de Efeitos Aleatórios. Os testes de Breusch-Pagan e de Wooldridge indicaram, respectivamente, a presença de heterocedasticidade e de autocorrelação. Assim, o modelo de Efeitos Aleatórios foi estimado com correção de heterocedasticidade, com correção de autocorrelação e com ambas as correções. De acordo com a Equação estimada pelo modelo de Efeitos Aleatórios com correção de heterocedasticidade e autocorrelação, as variáveis PIB e população paranaense, PIB e população dos países importadores e preço das commodities foram estatisticamente significativas e seus coeficientes indicaram, com exceção do PIB do Paraná, relação positiva com as exportações paranaenses. As variáveis distância e área dos países importadores foram estatisticamente insignificantes e seus coeficientes mostraram uma relação inversa com as exportações do Paraná. As dummies China, NAFTA, União Europeia e MERCOSUL foram estatisticamente insignificantes. Seus coeficientes indicaram relação positiva entre as exportações paranaenses e a China e o MERCOSUL e negativa com o NAFTA e a União Europeia. A dummy crise foi estatisticamente significativa, indicando que redução da demanda global ocasionada pela crise financeira acarretou redução de 11,68% nas exportações paranaenses. Entretanto, entre 2008 e 2009, as exportações paranaenses apresentaram queda de 26,3%. Assim, a ocorrência da crise explicou parcialmente a queda das exportações do Paraná entre 2008 e 2009. Isto pode ser justificado pelas barreiras não tarifárias impostas pelos países em resposta à crise financeira.
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Hinz, Julian. "Essays on international trade and foreign policy." Thesis, Paris 1, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA01E028/document.
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Le sujet de cette thèse porte sur l’analyse des liens entre la politique étrangère et le commerce international, hormis un chapitre qui est de nature plus méthodologique. Dans le chapitre 1, j’étudie dans quelle mesure les intérêts géopolitiques sont une motivation essentielle pour la formation d’accords d’intégration économique. Les grands pays négocient et signent systématiquement des accords avec des pays plus petits qui offrent plus d’avantages en termes politiques qu’en termes économiques. Le chapitre 2 propose une analyse empirique sur les effets des sanctions sur les pays sanctionnant, et plus particulièrement sur leurs exportations. Dans ce travail en collaboration avec Matthieu Crozet, nous examinons l’impact global du régime de sanctions contre la Fédération de Russie sur les flux d’exportation des pays occidentaux, et l’impact micro sur les entreprises exportatrices françaises. Le chapitre 3 centre son analyse sur l’étude du mécanisme par lequel les relations politiques entre pays influent leurs flux commerciaux. Conjointement avec Elsa Leromain, nous montrons comment les pays adaptent leur mode d’approvisionnement au climat politique avec leur partenaire commercial. Enfin, dans le chapitre 4, j’explore une question méthodologique en établissant la façon dont les coûts commerciaux devraient être agrégés des niveaux inférieurs d’agrégation géographique au plus élevés en prenant l’exemple de la définition des distances moyennes entre pays en utilisant l’imagerie satellite sur l’émission de lumière nocturne pour mesurer l’activité économique localeThe subject of this doctoral thesis revolves around the analysis of the links between foreign policy and international trade, along with one chapter that is of more methodological nature. In chapter1 I show how geopolitical interests are a key motivation for economic integration agreements. Big countries systematically negotiate and sign these agreements with smaller countries that offer political benefits at the expense of economic ones. Chapter 2 provides an empirical analysis into the effect of sanctions on sanctioning countries—their exports in particular. In this joint work with Matthieu Crozet, we study the macro-impact of the sanctions regime against the Russian Federation on export flows from Western countries and the micro-impact on French exporting firms. Chapter 3 takes a closer look at the mechanism through which political relations between countries impact their trade flows. A collaboration with Elsa Leromain, we show how countries adjust their input sourcing pattern to the political climate with the respective trading partner. Finally, in chapter 4 I explore the methodological issue of how trade costs should be aggregated from lower levels of geographic aggregation to higher ones and I compute theory-consistent country to country distances using nighttime satellite imagery for information on the location of economic activity
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Hemkamon, Kanwana. "Determinants of trade and investment in Southeast Asia : an application of the gravity trade model." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2007. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/388/.
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This study is an analysis of the determinants of bilateral trade and foreign direct investment in ASEAN at the time of the establishment of ASEAN Free Trade Area and its enlargement. Beginning with an economic perspective on ASEAN and a review of the literature, the theoretical underpinning of the model is then demonstrated. This confirms that the gravity trade model can be derived from several trade theories. The model is then used to assess ASEAN’s trade pattern in both aggregate and disaggregate level. The results show that, although there is trade diversion regarding its importing activities, the positive effect of ASEAN’s trade creation is higher than the negative effect of its trade diversion. Moreover, the impact of distance is not diminishing over time. The disaggregate model shows that the products that are not convenient to transport have high distant effect. The results from FDI model confirm that the gravity variables are significant determinants of FDI. The negative effect of proximity suggests that there is Vertical-FDI in this region and FDI is complementary to trade. ASEAN should continue to facilitate trade and capital movement among members in order to increase aggregate economic activities and bring economic prosperity to the region in a whole.
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Dorobanțu, Cosmina Liana. "Market design, borders, and gravity in the virtual world." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:91849bc8-5f6c-49f4-bd06-9f04afcfd1f9.
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This thesis consists of three separate papers which examine different aspects of the economics of online commerce. The first paper studies a natural experiment in the release of a new ad targeting feature onto an online advertising platform. The experiment affects the specificity of advertising assets in certain geographic ad markets. The paper finds evidence that the additional specificity negatively affects auction participation in the treated areas, an effect that has not been anticipated by the incumbent theoretical literature. The paper also finds evidence that despite negatively affecting auction participation, the additional specificity leads to higher revenue growth for the online platform in the treated areas. The paper's results highlight the importance of considering entry and exit decisions in theoretical models of specificity choices by market designers. The second paper uses a proprietary data set from Google to find that online trade between two US states or two Canadian provinces is 6.7 times higher than trade between a US state and a Canadian province. This finding is surprising given that in the online environment, information costs and business-to-business transactions involving intermediate inputs are largely absent. When disaggregating the data by sectors of economic activity, the study finds that the largest US-Canada border effects occur for services whose consumption is tied to a particular location and goods that face large regulatory hurdles at the border. The third paper analyzes geographical patterns of cross-country Internet transactions using proprietary data from Google. The paper finds the effect of distance on online trade to be around -0.53. The study also finds that cultural characteristics, such as shared languages or religions, have a large impact on e-commerce, while economic ties, such as a common currency, have an insignificant effect. The paper underlines the importance of accounting for selection into trade in worldwide gravity estimations and identifies two exclusion restrictions that can be used when examining online trade flows.