Academic literature on the topic 'Gross fixed capital formation'

<p><em>This study aims to determine the relationship between Foreign Direct Invesment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Trade Openness to economic growth in nine ASEAN countries, and to compare the factors that determinae the movement and economic growth ini nine countries ASEAN. The variables used invlude foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, trade openness and Growth of Gross Domestic Product of each country. </em><em>The method used in this thesis is the regression method Panel . Results of the study showed an overall variable Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Fixed Capital Formation had significant results . If seen from the results of the model for pernegara Foreign Direct Investment have the significant results in the state of Singapore . Gross Fixed Capital Formation have the significant results in the state of Singapore, Thailand, Philippines and Cambodia. To have the variable Trade Openness significant results at the state of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Cambodia</em><em>.</em></p>

This study analyzes the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth in Malaysia. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is used to investigate the long-run relationship between FDI and economic growth. The controlled variables are life expectancy, gross fixed capital formation and population growth. The bound test suggests that FDI, life expectancy, gross fixed capital formation and population growth have a long-run relationship with economic growth. This is supported by the significant correction term, which confirms the existence of a long-run relationship. However, as FDI, life expectancy and gross fixed capital formation have positive impact on Malaysia’s economic growth, population on the other hand, shows otherwise.

The examination of the economy-environment nexus is one of the focal issues in the field of environmental economics. This study examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, industry, services, and gross fixed capital formation for a panel of Balkan countries over the period 1996-2017. A three-step methodological approach is used, including panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and panel causality tests. The results suggest a strong cointegration between the variables, meaning that all variables have a long-run relationship with CO2 emissions. The results of the panel causality show that there is a short-run bidirectional panel causality running between industry and services, and gross fixed capital formation and services. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from industry and gross fixed capital formation to CO2 emissions, and from industry to gross fixed capital formation. The results of the long-run causal relationships show that estimated coefficients of the error correction terms (ECT) in the case of CO2 emissions, industry and gross fixed capital formation are statistically significant, indicating that these three variables are an important part in the adjustment process as the model diverges from the long-run equilibrium. Balkan countries need to further invest in the modernisation of their technological process, as well as to act following the global policy incentives. Environmental taxes, carbon capture and storage, taking part in emission trading schemes and orientation towards renewable energy sources, should further strengthen Balkan countries in achieving environmentally sound economic growth.

The study investigates the relationship between the labor force participation rate for both male and female, gross fixed capital formation, and economic growth in Bangladesh using the annual time series data from 1991 to 2017. The results find two bidirectional nexus that one is between total labor force participation and economic growth and second is between gross fixed capital formations and economic growth whereas the findings also show a unidirectional causal association from female labor force participation to economic progress for Bangladesh. The study also finds that both total labor force participation and female labor force participation have short-run positive significant effects on the economic development for Bangladesh but adverse effects in the long run. On the contrary gross fixed capital formation contains short term significant negative indication on the economic growth but has an explicit positive considerable impact on the economic development of Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh needs to give more importance in technical education format that will produce more skilled labor.

The purpose of this study was to research and understand the interrelations between the growth of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), the volume of construction industry, supply of interindustry balance, and amount of fixed-asset investments in Russia between 2000 and 2016. The autoregressive distributed-lagged (ARDL) bound testing methodology and regression analysis were applied to evaluate the cointegration and influence of construction industry volume on gross fixed-capital formation. Empirical studies on the role of the construction industry are at the forefront of economic research; however, ARDL modeling studies of GFCF have yet to be conducted in Russia. The study revealed a non-linear causation between construction industry volume and the growth in GFCF over a long time period. The correlation was stationary and cointegrated. Fixed investment positively affected gross fixed capital formation only in periods of economic expansion, whereas the effectiveness of fixed-asset investments had greater volatility in times of crisis. The construction industry was not practically affected by crisis shocks, demonstrating a permanent stationarity in the causal relationship with GFCF, whereas causal relations between GFCF and the supply of interindustry balance were absent. The results are important for further research in the field of economic growth, the development of a national budget and investment policy, as well as investment project selection.

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to empirically examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of five South Asian economies, namely, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal over the period from 1971 to 2010 within a multivariate framework. Design/methodology/approach The study uses Pedroni cointegration and Granger causality test based on panel vector error correction model to examine long-run equilibrium relationship and direction of causation in the short and long run between energy consumption and economic growth using energy inclusive Cobb–Douglas production function for a panel of five South Asia countries, namely India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Findings Pedroni’s panel cointegration test indicates the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth per capita, energy consumption per capita and real gross fixed capital formation per capita for panel. Further, 1 per cent increase in energy consumption per capita increases the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by 0.8424 per cent for the panel. Causality results suggest bidirectional causality between energy consumption per capita, gross fixed capital formation per capita and GDP per capita in the long run and unidirectional causality running from energy consumption per capita and gross fixed capital formation per capita to GDP per capita in the short run. Practical implications These South Asian countries should implement an expansionary energy policies through improving the energy infrastructure, energy efficiency measures and exploiting massive renewables’ availability for low-cost, affordable clean energy access for all, especially in the yet unserved rural and remote areas for further stimulating economic growth. Originality/value Implementing energy efficiency measures and massive renewables development (wind, solar and hydropower) may help the affordable and clean energy access and reducing fossils fuel dependence and its associated greenhouse emissions in South Asia.

The research paper studies the causal link between gross domestic product, gross fixed-capital formations, exchange rate, and trade deficits in Pakistan from 1986 to 2013 with time serial data. ADF and Phillip Perron tests are recycled for stationary and at the first difference, each variable is unified. According to the Johansen Co-integration test, the presence of longer-term Co-integration among variables is displayed, and the Error Correction model expresses that 49.27 % of short-term uncertainty is adjusted in long-term equilibrium. Moreover, the Granger causality test presented causality among the variables. While the conclusion showed that such variables have unidirectional causation. Keywords: Trade Deficit, Exchange Rate, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Gross Domestic Product, ADF, Phillip Perron, Johansen Co-integration, Error Correction model, & Granger Causality test.

This paper examines the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental degradation in Indonesia in 1965-2018 with the inclusion of gross capital formation and trade openness as relevant factors. The autoregressive distributed lag model to cointegration, fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and canonical cointegrating regression approach applied to estimate this relationship. The result of cointegration confirms the existence of a cointegration relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, trade openness, and environmental degradation. The empirical result, in the long run, indicates that energy consumption, economic growth, and trade openness have a positive relationship with environmental degradation. However, the gross fixed capital formation was found to be negatively associated with environmental degradation. This implying that gross fixed capital formation plays a pivotal role to reduce environmental degradation in Indonesia. The error correction model coefficient indicates that the deviation of CO2 emissions from its long run equilibrium will be adjusted by 0.53% through the short run channel per annual. The findings of this paper propose implementing an energy policy that focuses on energy from environmentally friendly sources. Reverse the effect of openness to the international markets to improve and facilitate access to advanced and environmentally friendly technologies to mitigate environmental degradation and improve environmental quality.

Economic growth drivers aimed at stimulating and stabilizing the economies of the countries to engender sustainable growth. Studies have shown that Nigeria has been plagued with stunted and faltering economic growth over the years. Tax and other relevant macroeconomic policies are implemented by the government to smoothen out economic fluctuations but this has not been fully harnessed. A causal-effect study was conducted between tax revenue, gross fixed capital formation and economic growth using a 38-year time series data from 1981 to 2018 derived from CBN statistical bulletin. It was found that tax revenue (TR) had significant positive effect on Gross Domestic Product and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) significantly controls the relationship between TR and GDP. It is evidenced that the country relied heavily on taxes as major source of revenue. The study recommended that government should widen its tax net, creates expansionary measures to enhance its tax revenue in order to boost its GDP. The government should also create an enabling environment for economy diversifications in order to increase revenue generated via other means than taxes in order to spur economic growth and avoid over-reliance on taxes.

This paper tests the prior-savings theory which proposes that pension savings could moderate inflation, and spur long-tenured savings for fixed capital formation. An augmented Toda-Yamamoto longrun non-causality technique was used to analyze data from 1980 to 2018. The outcome reveals that pension saving has significant negative causal flow to gross fixed capital formation, while gross fixed capital formation does not drive inflation expectation. The outcome suggests that prior-savings theory does not hold in the Nigerian case, which may infer that government borrowing from pension fund has been for consumption expenditure. The results generalize many developing economies with similar financial structure. The paper recommends that borrowed pension savings be invested in infrastructures in line with prior-saving theory. Fiscal policy reforms that broaden and deepen the nexus are recommended

The theme of this thesis is to analyze the development of the investment cycle in the Czech Republic in the years 2000-2012 and clarify the impact of defined development determinants of the investment. In the thesis, the investment environment in, which investors make decisions, is described and which the economic policy of the state affects. After the contribution analysis of individual growth components of GDP, the following statistically oriented section examines the level of investment, investment determinants and their mutual connection with GFCF. The work also contains an alternative view on the investment in the production sector, with the help of G. Reisman's GDR indicator. Finally, there are introduced others, not so well quantifiable factors that may also influence the formation and development of the investment cycle.

This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

Mestrado em Finanças
A competitividade tributária tem se mostrado cada vez mais importante devido à era da globalização e digitalização, que aumenta a mobilidade de capital das empresas. Conseqüentemente, os países precisam cada vez mais permanecer competitivos em termos de impostos. Este último levanta a questão de saber se isso tem uma influência positiva no desempenho econômico de um país. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo sinalizar o impacto do sistema de tributação das empresas holandês em seu desempenho econômico durante o período de 1995 a 2018. Uma regressão OLS foi realizada para responder à principal questão de pesquisa; "Os impostos corporativos holandeses afetam o desempenho econômico da Holanda?" Foi examinado o efeito de varias variáveis explicativas, como as taxas de imposto sobre as sociedades estatutárias, efetivas e implícitas, nas variáveis dependentes crescimento do PIB, IED líquido e GCF. Os resultados empíricos do estudo apresentam a relação negativa e significativa entre as taxas de imposto sobre as sociedades efetivas e o crescimento do PIB, bem como a relação positiva e significativa entre as receitas fiscais das sociedades e o crescimento do PIB. Além disso, as taxas legais de imposto sobre as sociedades demonstram um impacto negativo e significativo no IDE líquido. A reforma tributária de 2007, usada como variável de controle, tem um impacto positivo e significativo sobre o IED líquido. A variável dependente GCF não revela significância relevante com as variáveis explicativas. Para examinar os resultados, pode-se concluir que, em certo grau, os impostos corporativos holandeses influenciam o desempenho econômico da Holanda.
Tax competitiveness is proven to be of growing importance due to the globalization and digitalization era, which increases the capital mobility of businesses. Hence, countries increasingly need to remain tax competitive. The latter raises the question whether this has a positive influence on the economic performance of a country. This dissertation aims to shed light on the impact of the Dutch corporate taxation system on its economic performance over the period 1995 until 2018. An OLS regression was performed to answer the main research question; "Do Dutch corporate taxes impact the economic performance of the Netherlands?" The effect of various explanatory variables such as statutory, effective, and implicit corporate tax rates, onthe dependent variables GDP growth, net FDI, and GCF were examined. The empirical results of the study present the negative and significant relationship between effective corporate tax rates and GDP growth as well as the positive and significant relationship between corporate tax revenues and GDP growth. Moreover, statutory corporate tax rates demonstrate a negative and significant impact on net FDI. The 2007 tax reform, used as a control variable, has a positive and significant impact on net FDI. The dependent variable GCF does not disclose any relevant significance with the explanatory variables. To scrutinize the results, it can be concluded that to a certain degree Dutch corporate taxes do influence the economic performance of the Netherlands.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The thesis is focused on the development of investment patterns of the sectoral point of view in comparison with the EU and selected member countries. The aim of the thesis is to bring the industrial structure of gross fixed capital formation in the Czech Republic and compare the founded results with those for the European Union and selected EU member states. The theoretical part deals with basic facts about investment, what they represent, how they are distinguished and what is the importance in the national economy. The practical part deals with the structure of investments in the Czech Republic in terms of material and sectoral in the form of graphs and tables. Then there is noted the comparison of the Czech Republic data with the EU and selected member countries in the shares of total investment to GDP, gross fixed capital formation by industry structure and investment by institutional sectors.

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2017
Investment as one of the important macroeconomic variables can ensure infrastructure development and growth in the economy by raising the productive capacity. The study seeks to examine the determinants of investment activity in South Africa by means of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. The results of this study could assist policy makers to come up with policies that could encourage investment. The findings will add to the existing theory and knowledge as there is limited research on investment, more especially in South Africa. The empirical results revealed that the long and short run relationship exists amongst the variables under investigation. Furthermore, it was found that there is positive relationship between economic growth, interest rate, inflation and investment. Taxation and investment are negatively related in South Africa both in the long and short run. This indicates that investment activity can be explained by tax, economic growth, interest rates and inflation. The study recommend that the government should also find methods of increasing its revenue base. This could be done by creating a tax policy and system that is able to capture the informal sector because various un-registered businesses go unrecorded when estimating the tax to be collected in a fiscal year. This may be another way of increasing the level economic growth (GDP) since it will generate more fund for government to spend. KEY CONCEPTS: Gross fixed capital formation, Economic growth, taxation, interest rates, inflation.

碩士
國立暨南國際大學
國際企業學系
107
This paper pursues the conclusion that the relationship between foreign and domestic investments may be not as uniform as many studies suggest. By examining the case of Taiwanese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), this paper is marked out from existing studies in the following three respects. First, it examines the extent to which the relationship between OFDI and domestic investment varies with the location of investment. Second, this research allows the results to vary between Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) industries and Schumpeter industries. Finally, its breakdown of data will reveal sub-relationships in the data that up to now have remained hidden within the aggregate relationships reported in most studies. This study suggests that OFDI in China has a positive impact on domestic investment in H–O industries. Although OFDI in other countries (OFDIO) also has a positive impact but not obvious on domestic investment in the same industries. These findings are in marked contrast to Schumpeter industries where a positive effect is observed only for OFDIO. Our findings also suggest that the Taiwanese government should design policies to adjust the level of liberalization for overseas investment through legislation on an industry-by-industry basis in order that OFDI stimulates domestic investment in relevant industries more effectively.

In this study, we examine the effect of health infrastructure on economic growth in 30 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries over the period 1990-2014. Using modern econometric techniques that account for cross-sectional dependence in panel data, we find that health infrastructure (measured by mortality rate) does not have robust impact on economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is positively associated with economic growth while labor force and polity variables exhibit significant association with economic growth. The results provide sufficient evidence that although capital investment is adequate, the labor force and political environment have not facilitated the health infrastructure in increasing the GDP per capita level in SSA.

In this study, we examine the effect of health infrastructure on economic growth in 30 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries over the period 1990-2014. Using modern econometric techniques that account for cross-sectional dependence in panel data, we find that health infrastructure (measured by mortality rate) does not have robust impact on economic growth. Gross fixed capital formation, however, is positively associated with economic growth while labor force and polity variables exhibit significant association with economic growth. The results provide sufficient evidence that although capital investment is adequate, the labor force and political environment have not facilitated the health infrastructure in increasing the GDP per capita level in SSA.

Sustained investment in productive capabilities and fixed-capital formation is a key driver of inclusive and sustainable structural transformation. Both historically and compared to other middle-income countries, South Africa has performed poorly in terms of sustaining domestic-productive investments. This failing has coexisted with the development of a stock market with the second-highest level of capitalization over gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, and high levels of profitability across several economic sectors. This chapter provides new evidence on the specific ways in which financialization of non-financial corporations in South Africa has resulted in low investment performances, focusing on two large, publicly listed corporations operating across different economic sectors between 2000 and 2019. The analysis shows that, despite sector heterogeneities: (1) corporations have increasingly financed operations, capital expenditure, and distributions to shareholders with debt; (2) the US dollar-denominated share of this debt has grown rapidly, exposing corporations to increased exchange and interest rate risk; and (3) distributions to shareholders, driven by dividends rather than share repurchases, have risen markedly. These financialization dynamics are attributed to the distribution of power in the domestic political economy and the subordinate nature of South Africa’s integration with global finance. Driving financialization, these two mutually reinforcing factors have undermined the translation of profits into domestic investment, reducing its capacity to drive structural transformation.

One of the most significant problems in modern society is related to the sustainable development of the economy in the conditions of market transformations. An alarming finding are the negative trends in the development of agriculture - priority export of unprocessed agricultural products, low gross fixed capital formation, presence of weak horizontal and vertical links in the food chain, weak investment and innovation activity and many more. etc. The construction of logistics models and the formation of logistics chains in agriculture is a market reaction of business to added value and a tool for sustainable development of both agribusiness and rural areas in Bulgaria.

The more a country is open to trade, the more it attracts investors and the faster its economy develops. However, some study showed that sometime it can be the opposite of all this. In this context, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between trade openness, capital formation and economic growth in African countries. To do so, we collected data of GDP per capita, trade (% of GDP), Gross national expenditure and capital formation variables. The method applied is panel cointegration and causality by using time series of 38 African countries for the period of 1990-2014. According to the results there is long run relationship between all the variables and the cross sectional co-integration test result indicates that there is more cointegration in Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, Niger and Guinea-Bissau. With highest GDP per capita, Equatorial Guinea has more long-run relationship between trade openness, capital formation and economic growth. However, one of the poorest countries in the world (Niger), has also efficient long run relationship between the variables. The panel causality test results suggest that there is unidirectional causal relationship from trade openness to economic growth. There is also bidirectional causality link between capital formation and economic growth. In the same context, causal link exists from capital formation to trade openness. The study suggests that African countries must increase the investment promotions in order to increase the capital formation and trade openness then to boost economic growth.

Ever since the dawn of merchanting, traders have sought ways to ease the cost of transactions. The recent growth of information and communication technology provided a wide range of solutions for international and national transactions by introducing ecommerce. As a result of this development, e-commerce recently emerged as a dominant transaction activity with a significant impact on the national economies. In recent years the potential of e-commerce has been widely discussed, with a particular focus on its effects on greater economic welfare and prosperity. Yet, despite an abundance of studies that have been done on investigating the role of e-commerce in an economy, a thorough and detailed econometric examination on its impact is still an underexplored avenue. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by investigating the impact of volume of online transactions (e-commerce) and gross capital formation on economic growth, using panel data on 31 European countries covering a 16 years’ period. The empirical panel data model is estimated by employing the Generalized Method of Moments. The main findings from the study show that e-commerce and gross capital formation have positive and significant effects on GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity, with e-commerce having a weaker development-enhancing effect in comparison to gross capital formation. In addition, this paper proposes a fruitful discussion on how to provide balance between the growth of e-commerce, the focus on improving other aspects and generating optimal economic welfare and prosperity. Our paper ends with directions for future research.

This study aims to investigate the validity of natural resource curse hypothesis in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for the period from 1980 to 2014. In doing so, the relationship between real GDP, natural resource abundance, financial development and gross fixed capital is examined using with second generation panel data methodology which allows to cross-sectional dependence among countries. In case of mean group estimation, it is concluded that natural resource rents, financial development and capital positively affects the real GDP in GCC countries. However, in case of individual country estimations, we found that natural resource curse hypothesis is valid only in United Arab Emirates.

Human capital is the main source of the country's economic development. The quality of human capital is determined by the level of public health and education. Expenditures on education and health care allow increasing the stock of human capital and the productivity of labor resources thereby accelerates the process of economic development in the long term. In this regard, public spending on education plays an important role in the formation of human capital. After the collapse of the USSR, the Kyrgyz Republic experienced serious economic crises. Public spending declined sharply, as transfers from the budget of the USSR to budget of Kyrgyz Sovyet Republic was 8 to 14% of the state revenues. The loss of economic ties and the market with other republics led to the reduced output significantly. Despite crises, Kyrgyzstan is one of the post-Soviet countries that was able to preserve the educational system. The purpose of this study is analyzing the causal relationship between government spending on education and the gross domestic product in Kyrgyzstan. In the empirical analysis, monthly data on government spending on education and GDP will be used from 2000: 1 to 2015: 8, using a cointegration test for the existence of a long-term relationship, built on the basis of autoregression with distributed lags as known the ARDL model.

International trade is defined the exchange of goods, services, and capital among various countries and regions. Also the potential of imports and exports account for an important part of growth. On the other hand, total value of international trade in goods and services shows the countries’ integration into the world economy. In this paper we focused on to analyze the effects on imports and make inferences for Eurasian Countries. In this paper we aim to examine the relationship between imports and macro-economic indicators in 6 Eurasian economies. To analyze the relationship, we used panel data regression analysis. Data obtained from World Bank. The panel data covers 1996-2012 periods and 6 countries which named Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. We predicted pooled, fixed effects and random effects panel data models using the Stata and analyzed them. The dependent variable is defined the imports in our model. It has been found that gross domestic savings, foreign direct investments and, and exports are statistically significant for this countries. The results found in this paper show that gross domestic savings has negative effects on imports. On the other hand, for this 6 countries foreign direct investments (inflow) and exports have positive effects on imports as we expected. It shows us the economic positions of Eurasian countries still depend on Russian Federation. Also, these findings have important policy implications for Eurasian Countries. Our interpretation of these findings is that, integration to world economy has generally positive effects on foreign direct investments for this countries.

The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between natural resources revenue, fiscal policy and economic growth for 35 selected Sub-Saharan African countries. The panel data covering the periods of 1986-2014 was analyzed by using the fixed/random effect model estimation and the panel causality test. We also performed the panel unit root test in order to insure that our variables are stationary. The empirical results indicate that there is insignificant negative effect of natural resources revenue and bad fiscal policy on the economic growth. However, there is significant positive effect of capital formation on economic growth. We also found a bidirectional causality relationship between Natural resources rents and economic growth. There is also unidirectional causality link from government final consumption expenditure to Natural resources revenue and from Natural resources revenue to capital formation. These empirical results mean that Sub-Saharan African countries apply bad fiscal policy to improve the natural resource sector which does not efficiently contribute to the economic growth. This study suggests that countries of Sub-Saharan Africa must apply improved fiscal policy in order to add tax revenue to their total revenue; and they must also use the natural resources revenue in order to invest in other sectors such as education, manufacturing and agriculture.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.