Academic literature on the topic 'Gross spread'

EXEMPTING A trustee for gross negligenceCan an exemption clause exclude a trustee’s liability for gross negligence? That was the question which the Privy Council was required to consider in this appeal from the Guernsey Courts. Guernsey has developed substantial activities in finance and trusts, and now has legislation (the Trusts (Guernsey) Law 2007) creating a legal framework for this business. The legislative framework was first introduced in 1989, and amended in 1990. The effect of an exemption clause had never been considered in litigation in Guernsey prior to the introduction of legislation.

The steepness of the bond yield curve is an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve and slows down real growth in the near-term. This paper analyses the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of selected countries between 2000 and 2016. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between sovereign 10-year and 3-month bonds. The results showed that the best predictive lags are the lag of four and five quarters. The results also confirm that 10-year and 3-month yield spread has a significant predictive power for real GDP growth after a financial crisis. These findings can benefit investors and provide evidence of the potential usefulness of the yield curve spreads as indicators of the future economic activity. Keywords: GDP prediction, yield curve, slope, spread.

One of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic is that the global economy has seen a robust increase in the countries‘ gross external debt and the sovereign public debt that is part of it. Nor have the eurozone Member States escaped this effect. The increase in gross external debt and sovereign government debt also means that it has become theoretically more risky for investors to buy debt securities (typically bonds). Theoretically, however, it follows that as a result of the increase in risks in the country, CDS spreads had to rise as well. The study uses a correlation calculation to show that the development of the price of CDSs is more closely correlated with gross government debt than with gross external debt. Using hierarchical cluster analysis, the study groups the countries of the Eurozone. The basis for clustering is the close relationship between a country‘s gross government debt and its CDS spread over the period under review. A relevant conclusion of the study is that the increase in gross government debt was not followed by an increase in CDS spreads because the financial source of the increase in government debt was different from previous years.

Using sorting, cross-sectional tests, regression, and tests of a monotonic relation, the study examines the return patterns related to seven distinct quality characteristics: accruals, bid-ask spread, balance sheet liquidity, profitability, leverage, payout ratio and turnover. The investigation of more than 1.300 stocks from 11 Central and Eastern European countries for the period 2002–2014 documents a strong gross-profitability premium and an inverted liquidity premium. Profitable and not heavily leveraged companies provide a partial hedge against market distress. Finally, the paper proposes quality spreads as a forecasting tool and shows that they have predictive abilities over quality premiums related to leverage, profitability and bid-ask spread.

Meningiomas represent the most common benign intracranial neoplasms, and may spread by direct extension into nearby venous sinuses, but gross spread to the extracranial venous system is uncommon. We report the case of a patient with extracranial intraluminal spread of meningioma within the internal jugular vein to level III of the neck. Review of the preoperative assessment and management is also presented.

This paper is concerned with the potential profit opportunities in trading calendar spreads of 90-day Bank Accepted Bill (BAB) futures contracts on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) during the 1990s. It is shown that statistically significant gross profits can be generated by a naïve strategy for most of the considered holding periods ranging from 3 months to 18 months. However, after the deduction of generous transaction costs, the net profits are statistically significant only for the 6-month holding period returns. The implications of the profits produced by calendar spread trading methodology on the efficiency of the BAB futures market are also addressed. The empirical results reveal that the efficiency market hypothesis for the BAB futures market cannot be universally accepted in the 1990s.

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable disease that in recent years has spread remarkably in Europe and Asia. Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) plays a key role in the maintenance and spread of the pathogen. Here we examined gross pathology of infection in wild boar with a highly virulent, hemadsorbing genotype II ASF virus (ASFV) strain. To this end, six wild boars were intramuscularly inoculated with the 10 HAD50 Arm07 ASFV strain, and 11 wild boars were allowed to come into direct contact with the inoculated animals. No animals survived the infection. Clinical course, gross pathological findings and viral genome quantification by PCR in tissues did not differ between intramuscularly inoculated or contact-infected animals. Postmortem analysis showed enlargement of liver and spleen; serosanguinous effusion in body cavities; and multiple hemorrhages in lungs, endocardium, brain, kidneys, urinary bladder, pancreas, and alimentary system. These results provide detailed insights into the gross pathology of wild boar infected with a highly virulent genotype II ASFV strain. From a didactic point of view, this detailed clinical course and macroscopic description may be essential for early postmortem detection of outbreaks in wild boar in the field and contribute to disease surveillance and prevention efforts.

This paper has analysed the determinants of interest rate spread (IRS) of Nepalese commercial banks. The panel data of 25 commercial banks from 2013/14 to 2020/21 was used for the analysis. The study used return on assets (ROA), management efficiency (ME), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), assets quality (AQ), and credit risk (CR, and operational efficiency (OE) as the bank specific determinants and inflation (INF) and growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) as the macroeconomic determinants. Using the random effect model, the paper finds ROA, CR, ME, and OE as the major bank specific determinants and INF and GDP as the major macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spread. Similarly, the role of ROA, CR, INF and GDP was found to be positive while that of ME and OE was discovered as a negative role in determining IRS of Nepalese commercial banks. The findings of this study can be useful in formulating policies on the spread rate of interest.

This thesis examines the fees charged by underwriters for conducting IPOs in China. By examining a sample of 1,171 Chinese IPOs conducted during 2001-2011, I obtain the first evidence from China on the direct issue cost, the gross spreads, and identify its determinants, including issue proceeds, number of lead managers, and lead manager reputation. The results show a pattern of over-time increase of the spreads, which is at 0.16 percentage points per year for state-owned enterprise (SOE) offerings and 0.73 percentage points per year for non-SOE ones. The gross spreads do not exhibit clustering, but are largely consistent with increased demand for underwriting services from non-SOEs that, together with increased complexity of underwriting, has pushed underwriting fees up.
published_or_final_version
Economics and Finance
Master
Master of Philosophy

The invasibility, or susceptibility of an ecosystem to biological invasion is influenced by changes in biotic and abiotic resistance often due to shifts in disturbance regime. The magnitude of invasive propagule pressure interacts with an ecosystem's invasibility to determine the extent of a biological invasion. I examined how propagule pressure, forest community structure and disturbance interact to influence the invasibility of temperate Pacific Northwest forests by the newly-invasive grass, Brachypodium sylvaticum. My goal was to identify which of these factors is most instrumental in enabling the shift from establishment to population growth in B. sylvaticum at the edge of its expanding range. Both observational and experimental studies were employed to identify the many ecological components of this problem. Ecological sampling methods were used to identify trends in B. sylvaticum habitat preference and signs of habitat disturbance. In addition, an experimental study was performed to test the effects of soil and vegetation disturbance on B. sylvaticum seedling propagation. I found that while soil disturbance did not have a significant effect on seedling propagation, vegetation disturbance was implicated in B. sylvaticum spread. Higher propagule pressure and coniferous forest type were also strong predictors of increased B. sylvaticum seedling propagation and survival within established sites. My study demonstrates how propagule pressure and plant community dynamics interact to shift the invasibility of Pacific Northwest forests and facilitate the transition from establishment to spread in the invasion of B. sylvaticum.

Invasive species drive ecosystem changes throughout the world. Introduced grasses in dryland ecosystems have driven a grass-fire cycle that transforms ecosystems into homogenized grasslands (Brooks et al. 2004; D'Antonio & Vitousek 1992). Little is known about the spread rates of these grasses, effects on native ecosystems or how climate modulates spread, yet these uncertainties may be the difference between success and failure. Equally important is a quantitative assessment of the current states of invasion, yet mapping efforts have been lacking and remote sensing assessments have been inadequate for regional and local assessments. This research examines these uncertainties in the context of buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare Link (L.)), a C₄ grass introduced into the Sonoran Desert. These are presented as three distinct but related studies. The first study documents changes in diversity and dominance at 11 sites in the Sonoran Desert with respect to time since infestation by buffelgrass. Dominant and rare species alike declined rapidly following infestation, although the longer-lived shrubs showed no signs until after five years. This calls into question basic assumptions about the grass-fire cycle. The second study assesses constraints to successful operational identification of buffelgrass via remote sensing. We combined ground-based spectral measurements with cover estimates and found that Landsat TM-based classification will result in high commission/omission errors regardless of timing. We also identified several spectral characteristics that distinguish buffelgrass that are only available using hyperspectral imagery. The third study reconstructs spread of buffelgrass using historical aerial photography dating from 1979. Populations grew from small colonizing patches to 66 ha in 2008, doubling every 2-3 years since 1988. Although spread closely fit a logistic growth curve between 1989 and 2008, we found evidence that the 1980s were a period of rapid expansion. Thus, we may presently be in a period of slower spread in which treatment efforts will be more effective than the long-term average. This research documents grass-led ecosystem transformation without changes in the fire regime and constant spread rates over multiple decades. Along with suggested methods derived from our remote sensing study, this provides managers with critical information for managing buffelgrass in the long-term.

Evolution of genotypes during range expansion is driven in part by colonization dynamics. I investigated genetic patterns of colonization and dispersal during initial expansion of an invasive bunchgrass, Brachypodium sylvaticum, into Oregon. Using microsatellite markers, I sampled plants at two different scales: at regular intervals along three parallel roads spanning about 30km, and in populations identified throughout Oregon. I also collected field-generated progeny from a subset of populations and used molecular identification of outcrossing events to estimate selfing rates in both central and peripheral populations. Dispersal patterns were similar at both scales, with non-contiguous dispersal responsible for colonization of new populations. High levels of differentiation were observed at all scales, though newly-colonized populations were more differentiated than older populations. Corvallis populations were responsible for colonization of a majority of populations throughout Oregon, while individuals from Eugene were only occasionally found in new populations. Admixture occurs between Corvallis and Eugene populations, decreasing differentiation, and potentially creating novel phenotypes and increasing evolutionary potential of populations. Selfing rates were high, but two populations in the areas of original introduction had lower rates of selfing, suggesting that selfing rates may decrease as population density and diversity increases with age. The influences of founder effects and bottlenecks on phenotypic evolution during range expansion require further investigation, as inbreeding, lag times, and selection may influence evolutionary trajectories of populations.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Flowering entomofauna in Peltophorum dubium (Spreng.) Taub. in the area of Dourados, MS. Floral biology, reproduction system and insects visiting, were studied in P.dubium, being observed the diversity, frequency, abundance and constancy of species visiting at different hours. The flowers possess diurnal anthesis, sweetened odor, and the concentration of sugar in the nectar was of 34%. The results of reproduction system suggest that P. dubium is autocompatible, however, the xenogamy was the predominant system of reproduction. During its flowering period, it was verified a great diversity of floral visitors belonging to five orders, being most constituted by bees. The medium presence of visiting among the different hours in the period of the 06h:00min. to the 16h:00min. didn't present significant difference, decreasing up to the 17h:00min. The environmental factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and luminosity) influenced the frequency and distribution of the insects. As for the behavior in relation to the flower, it was observed that Xylocopa sp., Bombus sp. and Oxaea flavescens Klug, 1807 they possess size and appropriate behavior to the pollination of P. dubium being considered legitimate pollinators. The other bees, Apis mellifera Linnaeus, 1758, Augochloropsis sp.2 e sp.3, Trigona spinipes Fabricius, 1793, Geotrigona mombuca Smith, 1863, Scaptotrigona depilis Moure, 1942 and Exomalopsis sp.3 were considered occasional pollinators or nectar thieves
RESUMO: Entomofauna visitante de Peltophorum dubium (Spreng.) Taub. na região de Dourados MS. A biologia floral, sistema de reprodução e entomofauna visitante, foram estudados em P. dubium, observando-se as diversidade, freqüência, abundância e constância das espécies visitantes em diferentes horários. As flores possuem antese diurna, odor adocicado, e a concentração de açúcar no néctar foi de 34%. Os resultados de sistema de reprodução sugerem que P. dubium é autocompatível, porém, a xenogamia foi o sistema de reprodução predominante. Durante a floração da espécie, verificou-se uma grande diversidade de visitantes florais pertencentes a cinco ordens, sendo a maioria constituída por abelhas. A presença média de visitantes entre as diferentes horas no período das 06h:00min. as 16h:00min não apresentou diferença estatisticamente significativa, diminuindo até as 17h:00 min. Os fatores ambientais (temperatura, umidade relativa, velocidade do vento e luminosidade) influenciaram a freqüência e distribuição dos insetos. Quanto ao comportamento forrageador em relação à flor, observou-se que Xylocopa sp., Bombus sp. e Oxaea flavescens Klug, 1807 possuem tamanho e comportamento adequados à polinização de P. dubium sendo considerados polinizadores legítimos. As demais abelhas, Apis mellifera Linnaeus, 1758, Augochloropsis sp.2 e sp.3, Trigona spinipes Fabricius, 1793, Geotrigona mombuca Smith, 1863, Scaptotrigona depilis Moure, 1942 e Exomalopsis sp.3 foram considerados polinizadores ocasionais ou pilhadores

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O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar estudos sobre as características agronômicas e fitoquímicas da Pfaffia glomerata (Spreng.) Pederson e de sua inter-relação sócio-ambiental, num trecho da planície de inundação do alto rio Paraná, onde cresce espontaneamente. A coleta dos acessos (A) foi realizada ao longo dos rios Paranapanema (Rosana, SP = A4), Paraná (Ilha de Santa Terezinha, PR = A1; Taquaruçu, MS = A3), Ivaí (Querência do Norte, PR = A2), nos estados do Paraná, São Paulo e Mato Grosso do Sul. Um experimento foi instalado no município Querência do Norte-PR para avaliar o desenvolvimento da espécie em altura (em viveiro e campo) e a produção de raízes (peso fresco, peso seco) e conteúdo de -ecdisona das raízes. Com relação a - ecdisona, os extratos foram preparados na UEM e as determinações em foram feitas no TECPAR. Também foi feito um levantamento da situação socioeconômica dos coletores e elaborado o fluxograma do produto. As colheitas foram realizadas a partir do oitavo até o décimo quarto mês após o plantio, em intervalos de dois meses (E). Na produção de mudas o acesso com maior taxa de brotação dos propágulos foi o A2, com 94%, seguida do A3 com 84%; A1 com 73%; e o A4 com 71%. Quanto ao desenvolvimento das mudas em viveiro, o acesso que apresentou maior velocidade de crescimento foi o A4 (média 37,4 cm), seguido do A2 (média 28,9 cm), A3 (média 27,4 cm) e o A1 (média 23,3 cm). Em relação ao desenvolvimento da parte aérea, a diferença entre os acessos existente no momento da instalação do experimento deixou de ser significativa a partir da segunda avaliação. A altura média de todos os acessos de foi 1,61m na 4ª avaliação. Com relação à produção de raízes, verificou-se que as maiores produtividades, tanto em peso fresco quanto seco, foram alcançadas aos 12 e aos 14 meses...
The aim of this study was to determine some agricultural and phyto-chemical characteristics of Pfaffia glomerata (Spreng.) Pederson and the interaction of the cultivation of this species with social and environmental aspects. The study was carried out in its natural habitat: the flooded lowlands of the Paraná river basin. The gathering of the accessions for collection purposes (A) was performed along the rivers Paranapanema (Rosana, SP = A4), Paraná (Ilha de Santa Terezinha, PR = A1; Taquaruçu, MS = A3), and Ivaí (Querência do Norte, PR = A2), in the states of Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. An field trial was set up in the municipality of Querência do Norte- PR to evaluate the development of the species in terms of the height development (in nursery and under field conditions) and the production of roots (fresh weight, dry weight) and -ecdisone content in roots. The extracts to determine the latter were prepared at UEM (State University of Maringá) and the content was obtained with HPLC - equipment at TECPAR (Institute of Technology of Paraná). A survey about the social and economic situation of the collectors was also undertaken and a production-to-consumption flowchart for the product was drawn. Harvesting of the roots was carried out in a two-month interval (E), starting eight months after planting until fourteen month after planting. During the nursery phase, the accession that resulted the highest rate of sprouting of the propagative material (cuttings from the cormlike tissues) was accession 2, with 94%, followed by A3 with 84%; A1 with 73%; and A4 with 71%. In relation to seedling development under field conditions, the accession that showed the fastest growth rate was accession A4 (average of 37.4 cm), followed by A2 (average of 28.9 cm), A3 (average of 27.4 cm) and A1 (average 23.3 cm). In terms of development... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar estudos sobre as características agronômicas e fitoquímicas da Pfaffia glomerata (Spreng.) Pederson e de sua inter-relação sócio-ambiental, num trecho da planície de inundação do alto rio Paraná, onde cresce espontaneamente. A coleta dos acessos (A) foi realizada ao longo dos rios Paranapanema (Rosana, SP = A4), Paraná (Ilha de Santa Terezinha, PR = A1; Taquaruçu, MS = A3), Ivaí (Querência do Norte, PR = A2), nos estados do Paraná, São Paulo e Mato Grosso do Sul. Um experimento foi instalado no município Querência do Norte-PR para avaliar o desenvolvimento da espécie em altura (em viveiro e campo) e a produção de raízes (peso fresco, peso seco) e conteúdo de -ecdisona das raízes. Com relação a - ecdisona, os extratos foram preparados na UEM e as determinações em foram feitas no TECPAR. Também foi feito um levantamento da situação socioeconômica dos coletores e elaborado o fluxograma do produto. As colheitas foram realizadas a partir do oitavo até o décimo quarto mês após o plantio, em intervalos de dois meses (E). Na produção de mudas o acesso com maior taxa de brotação dos propágulos foi o A2, com 94%, seguida do A3 com 84%; A1 com 73%; e o A4 com 71%. Quanto ao desenvolvimento das mudas em viveiro, o acesso que apresentou maior velocidade de crescimento foi o A4 (média 37,4 cm), seguido do A2 (média 28,9 cm), A3 (média 27,4 cm) e o A1 (média 23,3 cm). Em relação ao desenvolvimento da parte aérea, a diferença entre os acessos existente no momento da instalação do experimento deixou de ser significativa a partir da segunda avaliação. A altura média de todos os acessos de foi 1,61m na 4ª avaliação. Com relação à produção de raízes, verificou-se que as maiores produtividades, tanto em peso fresco quanto seco, foram alcançadas aos 12 e aos 14 meses... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: The aim of this study was to determine some agricultural and phyto-chemical characteristics of Pfaffia glomerata (Spreng.) Pederson and the interaction of the cultivation of this species with social and environmental aspects. The study was carried out in its natural habitat: the flooded lowlands of the Paraná river basin. The gathering of the accessions for collection purposes (A) was performed along the rivers Paranapanema (Rosana, SP = A4), Paraná (Ilha de Santa Terezinha, PR = A1; Taquaruçu, MS = A3), and Ivaí (Querência do Norte, PR = A2), in the states of Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. An field trial was set up in the municipality of Querência do Norte- PR to evaluate the development of the species in terms of the height development (in nursery and under field conditions) and the production of roots (fresh weight, dry weight) and -ecdisone content in roots. The extracts to determine the latter were prepared at UEM (State University of Maringá) and the content was obtained with HPLC - equipment at TECPAR (Institute of Technology of Paraná). A survey about the social and economic situation of the collectors was also undertaken and a production-to-consumption flowchart for the product was drawn. Harvesting of the roots was carried out in a two-month interval (E), starting eight months after planting until fourteen month after planting. During the nursery phase, the accession that resulted the highest rate of sprouting of the propagative material (cuttings from the cormlike tissues) was accession 2, with 94%, followed by A3 with 84%; A1 with 73%; and A4 with 71%. In relation to seedling development under field conditions, the accession that showed the fastest growth rate was accession A4 (average of 37.4 cm), followed by A2 (average of 28.9 cm), A3 (average of 27.4 cm) and A1 (average 23.3 cm). In terms of development... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)
Orientador: Lin Chau Ming
Coorientador: Diógenes A. G. Cortez
Doutor

This study is a comprehensive analysis of Initial Public Offerings (IPO) in the Indonesian market. The aim is to provide evidence on the: 1) characteristics and main determinants of gross spread and underpricing; 2) relationship of gross spread and underpricing; and 3) post-listing day performance of IPO in the Indonesian IPO market. The relationship between gross spread, underpricing, and the determinants of gross spread and underpricing was examined under 1) pooled data analysis; and 2) panel data analysis. The data used in this research are 150 IPO firms from 2007 to 2016. The data was arranged into three panel data of industry, firm size, and offer size of IPO. Further evaluation was employed to identify the relationship of gross spread and underpricing. The two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression model is adopted to identify the relationship of two IPO costs.The last evaluation on cost of IPO was the evaluation of post-listing day performance of IPO. The distribution of gross spread components shows that the Indonesian underwriting market has different fee setting practices with greater focus on management fees. Evaluation of gross spread revealed that the gross spread level of 2% emerges as the common spread, however, gross spread showed weak clustering pattern at 2%. The pooled regression model result shows that underwriter reputation is the sole significant variable in explaining gross spread in the Indonesian IPO. The relationship of underwriter reputation and gross spread is negative and significant. This indicates that more reputable underwriters have lower gross spreads than less reputable underwriters. The result is contrary from previous works and this result can be explained by the competition hypothesis and economies of scale. The panel regression provided different results on the main determinant in gross spread. The main determinant of the industry panel analysis are firm size and firm age; and the main determinant of firm size and offer size panel analysis is offer price. The result from the distribution of underpricing shows that all IPO firms in the sample were underpriced on the first day of trading at 23.73%. Hypothesis testing of the pooled analysis shows that in general, Shanghai Stock Exchange Index (SSE), firm size and firm age were significant in explaining underpricing in the Indonesian IPO market for both pooled regression model and panel regression model. Further analysis of relationships between underpricing and the determinants of underpricing was examined under a panel regression model of industry, firm size and IPO offer size. The main determinants of the industry panel were fixed asset investment, inflation rates and SSE. The main determinants of the firm size panel were SSE, firm age, and profitability. The determinant variables of SSE and all variables included in firm-specific characteristics (firm size, firm age and profitability) were significant in explaining underpricing. Hypothesis testing on the pooled data and panel analysis provided different results on the main determinants of underpricing in Indonesian IPO market. In general, the result from both analyses indicates that the SSE and firm-specific characteristics (firm size, firm age and profitability) are more significant in explaining underpricing in Indonesia. This finding confirms that investors primarily use firms’ information and the regional stock market index influence in making decision to participate in the Indonesian stock market. The evaluation on the relationship between gross spread and underpricing, found that the two IPO costs had negative relationship or substitute related. Further, the post-listing day performance of IPO in Indonesia showed lower Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CARs) at the 20th-day after the listing day which indicates the return received by investors decreased.

The authors conclude the book by recapping their arguments and empirical results, and discussing the possibilities for the “new economic populism” to promote egalitarian economic outcomes in the face of continuing gridlock and the dominance of Washington, DC’s policymaking institutions by business and the wealthy, and a conservative Republican Party. Many states are actually addressing inequality now, and these policies are working. Admittedly, many states also continue to embrace the policies that have contributed to growing inequality, such as tax cuts for the wealthy or attempting to weaken labor unions. But as the public grows more concerned about inequality, the authors argue, policies that help to address these income disparities will become more popular, and policies that exacerbate inequality will become less so. Over time, if history is a guide, more egalitarian policies will spread across the states, and ultimately to the federal government.

Chapter 5 focuses on the opposition between civilized commodious peace and uncivilized war, or the notion that peace brings prosperity, whereas war is unproductive. Hobbes’s idealization of peace denies the ways in which the things of peace can come from and bring about violence and war. Ibn Khaldūn helps us ask how, for whom, and when peace becomes a basic desire. In both cases, this economy of peace’s morals grows out of a political economic arrangement. This arrangement of peace produces frontiers, or spaces in which other laws, or lawlessness, is upheld. With Ibn Khaldūn, the desert nomad becomes the sedentary dynasty’s enemy and its past. Hobbes’s heavily neglected discussions (and slippages) of settler colonialism and empire frame his understanding of peace, its sanitized “commodious” insinuates, its antonyms in the savage and nomad, and the ways it spreads war and death across the globe.

Any public debate about air pollution starts with the premise that air pollution cannot be good for you, so we should have less of it. However, it is much more difficult to determine how much is dangerous, and even more difficult to decide how much we are willing to pay for improvements in measured air pollution. Recent UK estimates suggest that fine particulate pollution causes about 6500 deaths per year, although it is not clear how many years of life are lost as a result. Some deaths may just be brought forward by a few days or weeks, while others may be truly premature. Globally, household pollution from cooking fuels may cause up to two million premature deaths per year in the developing world. The hazards of black smoke air pollution have been known since antiquity. The first descriptions of deaths caused by air pollution are those recorded after the eruption of Vesuvius in ad 79. In modern times, the infamous smogs of the early twentieth century in Belgium and London were clearly shown to trigger deaths in people with chronic bronchitis and heart disease. In mechanistic terms, black smoke and sulphur dioxide generated from industrial processes and domestic coal burning cause airway inflammation, exacerbation of chronic bronchitis, and consequent heart failure. Epidemiological analysis has confirmed that the deaths included both those who were likely to have died soon anyway and those who might well have survived for months or years if the pollution event had not occurred. Clean air legislation has dramatically reduced the levels of these traditional pollutants in the West, although these pollutants are still important in China, and smoke from solid cooking fuel continues to take a heavy toll amongst women in less developed parts of the world. New forms of air pollution have emerged, principally due to the increase in motor vehicle traffic since the 1950s. The combination of fine particulates and ground-level ozone causes ‘summer smogs’ which intensify over cities during summer periods of high barometric pressure. In Los Angeles and Mexico City, ozone concentrations commonly reach levels which are associated with adverse respiratory effects in normal and asthmatic subjects. Ozone directly affects the airways, causing reduced inspiratory capacity. This effect is more marked in patients with asthma and is clinically important, since epidemiological studies have found linear associations between ozone concentrations and admission rates for asthma and related respiratory diseases. Ozone induces an acute neutrophilic inflammatory response in both human and animal airways, together with release of chemokines (e.g. interleukin 8 and growth-related oncogene-alpha). Nitrogen oxides have less direct effect on human airways, but they increase the response to allergen challenge in patients with atopic asthma. Nitrogen oxide exposure also increases the risk of becoming ill after exposure to influenza. Alveolar macrophages are less able to inactivate influenza viruses and this leads to an increased probability of infection after experimental exposure to influenza. In the last two decades, major concerns have been raised about the effects of fine particulates. An association between fine particulate levels and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity was first reported in 1993 and has since been confirmed in several other countries. Globally, about 90% of airborne particles are formed naturally, from sea spray, dust storms, volcanoes, and burning grass and forests. Human activity accounts for about 10% of aerosols (in terms of mass). This comes from transport, power stations, and various industrial processes. Diesel exhaust is the principal source of fine particulate pollution in Europe, while sea spray is the principal source in California, and agricultural activity is a major contributor in inland areas of the US. Dust storms are important sources in the Sahara, the Middle East, and parts of China. The mechanism of adverse health effects remains unclear but, unlike the case for ozone and nitrogen oxides, there is no safe threshold for the health effects of particulates. Since the 1990s, tax measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have led to a rapid rise in the proportion of new cars with diesel engines. In the UK, this rose from 4% in 1990 to one-third of new cars in 2004 while, in France, over half of new vehicles have diesel engines. Diesel exhaust particles may increase the risk of sensitization to airborne allergens and cause airways inflammation both in vitro and in vivo. Extensive epidemiological work has confirmed that there is an association between increased exposure to environmental fine particulates and death from cardiovascular causes. Various mechanisms have been proposed: cardiac rhythm disturbance seems the most likely at present. It has also been proposed that high numbers of ultrafine particles may cause alveolar inflammation which then exacerbates preexisting cardiac and pulmonary disease. In support of this hypothesis, the metal content of ultrafine particles induces oxidative stress when alveolar macrophages are exposed to particles in vitro. While this is a plausible mechanism, in epidemiological studies it is difficult to separate the effects of ultrafine particles from those of other traffic-related pollutants.

Abstract Coffee (Coffea spp.) is a crop of significant importance for Brazilian agribusiness, which in 2019 generated a gross revenue of US$3.73 billion. As a perennial crop, coffee stays in the field for many years, subjected to nematode parasitism from the seedling stage throughout the economic life of the plantation. In Brazil, it is a challenge for growers to produce coffee in the presence of the root-knot nematodes (RKN). Meloidogyne paranaensis and M. incognita are the most destructive species and their spread has expanded in recent years. This chapter discusses the economic importance, geographical distribution, host range, damage symptoms, biology and life cycle, interactions with other nematodes and pathogens, recommended integrated management, and management optimization of Meloidogyne paranaensis and M. incognita infesting coffee in Brazil.

AbstractThis paper describes the outline of the video tutorial prepared for vegetation workers and relevant officers in Bhutan to learn how vegetation works are to be done in remote areas. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA for short) took a project on cutting unstable slopes in Gangthangkha, Wangdue, Bhutan, so that they should be gentler than 45° to improve slope stability with vegetation works. Particularly stabilizing slopes along Prime National Highway No. 1 (PNH-1 for short) was the overriding priority because slope failures along this highway have reportedly occurred in rainy seasons. Before vegetation works were carried out on the studied slope of the project, the authors conducted germination tests to choose seeds and methods suitable for the vegetation works. They chose Paspalum Atratum, Ruzi grass, and GM mixed (Grass Mixture seed formulating of Cock’s foot 70% and Italian Ryegrass 30% of 100 kg) based on their test results. The soil thickness associated with sowing was set at 5 cm. The authors tried the following types of vegetation methods on the studied site. Type A is arranging on the slope stripes of soil mixed with seeds and fertilizer, Type B is spreading out a five cm-thick seeds-mixed soil layer over the slope, and Type C is transplanting germination beds. In conclusion, Type C is the best in terms of its performance because the whole slope is quickly covered with already grown plants. In Type B, it is not until grass covers the entire slope that the slope is finally stabilized. Type A is good for seeds-mixed soil stripes, but it takes time for the grass to spread gradually over the whole slope.

AbstractManual contact tracing has been a key component in controlling the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The identification and isolation of close contacts of confirmed cases have successfully interrupted transmission chains and reduced the disease spread. Even though manual contact tracing has been widely used, its practice has shown that it is slow and cannot be scaled up once the epidemic grows beyond the early phase. In this case, digital contact tracing can play a significant role in controlling the pandemic. In this chapter, based on our experience and lessons learned from the Smittestopp project, we discuss the main prerequisites for the efficient implementation and validation of digital contact tracing in a population. Specifically, we discuss how to translate a close contact defined for manual tracing to proximity events discovered by a phone, that is, how to define a meaningful risk score and validate the digital contact tracing. We discuss challenges related to each step and provide solutions to some of them, even though questions still remain.

The question of how and why innovations spread through populations has been the focus of extensive research in various scientific disciplines over recent decades. Generally, innovation diffusion is defined as the process whereby a few members of a social system initially adopt an innovation, then over time more individuals adopt until all (or most) members have adopted the new idea (e.g. Rogers 2003; Ryan and Gross 1943; Valente 1993). Anthropologists and archaeologists have argued that this process is one of the most important processes in cultural evolution (Richerson et al. 1996) and much work has been devoted to describing and analysing the temporal and spatial patterns of the spread of novel techniques and ideas from a particular source to their present distributions. Classic case studies include the spread of agricultural inventions such as hybrid corn (e.g. Griliches 1957; Ryan and Gross 1943), the spread of historic gravestone motifs in New England (Dethlefsen and Deetz 1966; Scholnick 2012), and the spread of bow and arrow technology (Bettinger and Eerkins 1999). (For a more comprehensive list see Rogers and Shoemaker (1971) who reviewed 1,500 studies of innovation diffusion.) Interestingly, the temporal diffusion dynamic in almost all case studies is characterized by an S-shaped diffusion curve describing the fraction of the population which has adopted the innovation at a certain point in time. Similarly, the spatial dynamics tend to resemble travelling wave-like patterns (see Steele 2009 for examples). The basic puzzle posed by innovation diffusion is the observed lag between an innovation’s first appearance and its general acceptance within a population (Young 2009). In other words, what are the individual-level mechanisms that give rise to the observed population-level pattern? Again, scientific fields as diverse as economics/marketing science (e.g. Bass 1969; Van den Bulte and Stremersch 2004; Young 2009), geography (e.g. Hägerstrand 1967), or social science (e.g. Henrich 2001; Steele 2009; Valente 1996; Watts 2002) offer interesting insights into this question without reaching a consensus about the general nature of individual adoption decisions. In archaeological and anthropological applications, population-level patterns inferred from the archaeological record, such as adoption curves, are often the only direct evidence about past cultural traditions (Shennan 2011).

Africa is rising: its growing middle and upper class represent an untapped, dynamic, fast-moving, and competitive market that businesses can scarcely ignore. Household consumption in Africa has increased faster than the continent’s gross domestic product (GDP), which itself has consistently outpaced the global average. Consumer expenditure is growing at a compound annual rate of 3.9 per cent since 2010, from US$1.4 trillion in 2015 to an expected $2.5 trillion by 2030. If one adds the importance of brand recognition to African buyers, the young and growing population, the rapid urbanization, and the spread of Internet and mobile phones on the continent, Africa’s emerging economies present exciting opportunities for rights holders.

Most US national security problems, ranging from terrorism to the spread of weapons of mass destruction, from environmental destruction to life-threatening poverty, and from unwanted migration to gross violations of human rights, can be more effectively addressed if they are approached as problems of global governance rather than as problems to be solved by deploying US military power—regardless of the amount deployed. Military means should not be totally dismissed, but their recurring use is likely to increase risks of military competition, nuclear proliferation, terrorist attacks, forced human migration, and future violence. US security can improve with internationally agreed-on rules that constrain military technology, abolish poverty and meet human needs, protect the environment, and enable cosmopolitan law enforcement. Such lawmaking requires commitment to deliberate construction of effective, democratic, global governance in which all nations are equitably represented in order to reduce international anarchy and advance human security for all nations.

Swine pasteurellosis is usually observed in descript as well as nondescript pigs imparting in huge economic losses to the pig producers. The disease is characterized by pyrexia, dullness, staggering gait, anorexia, serous nasal discharge and dyspnoea. Case fatality rate may as high as 95% in adult animals and 100% in piglets. Typical lesions of oedematous swellings may remarkably visible in the pharyngeal region, these swellings spread to the ventral cervical region and brisket of pigs. Gross lesions include severe pneumonia and haemorrhages in lungs, petechial haemorrhages on serous membranes and other visceral organs. Lymph nodes usually get enlarged, oedematous and haemorrhagic. The blood smears from heart blood and tissue impression smears reveal teaming numbers of bipolar organisms indicating the presence of Pasteurella spp., the etiological organism. The bacteriological isolation and characterization of causative agent should be ruled out to identify by Gram’ staining for purity and bipolar morphology and biochemical characterization of the organisms. Molecular characterization necessitates to confirm Pasteurella multocida along with capsular types of the organism. Histopathological examination of lungs usually reveals typical fibrinous bronchopneumonia, multifocal suppuration and pleural thickening. Heart of some pigs may show presence of thrombi, haemorrhages and necrosed myocardium.

In radiotherapy, the delineations of the volume of the macroscopic spread of the tumor as the Gross Tumor Volume (GTV), and the surrounding volume of the microscopic spread of the disease as the Clinical Target Volume (CTV), are key tasks for a high quality treatment plan. In order to design a software that also supports cognition, software designers need a deeper understanding of the physicians’ cognitive processes and medical context. This paper presents a research about identifying main medical factors relevant for the delineation in the radiotherapy context as a first step in deepening the understanding for software design. Using two discussion formats with six radiation oncologists, we identified 29 medical factors regarding the delineations of tumorous volumes, categorized into: treatment context, tumor context and tumorous areas. In addition, the role of multimodal images, dose planning, and future wishes have been elaborated. These findings could support the software designers in using Evidence Based Software Engineering approach. It is expected that software designed based on the results presented here, is tailored towards the medical context and cognitive needs of radiation oncologists in the delineations of brain tumor, and therefore will improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their work.

Abstract Over the past years the usage of coiled tubing as a prefer method to deploy long and heavy guns in highly deviated wells has been widely spread in the oil industry to provide a single run without killing the well, perforate in underbalance conditions, reduce risks and improve job efficiency. The three wells are located in the Caspian Sea. In two wells, the objective was to isolate lower intervals and perforate a new zone through tubing and casing between two packers. On the other well, the objective was to perforate a new interval through casing after running a new completion and isolate lower production zones. Due to the challenges involving gross length of the new intervals, guns size, well deviation and live deployment needs several techniques were evaluated. The best approach was to use an Advance Live-Well Deployment (ALWD) system to deploy and retrieve the guns with a tube wire-enabled Coiled Tubing Telemetry (CTT) system focus on both safety and cost saving compare with conventional wireline perforating. Extensive job planning involved coiled tubing (CT) simulations to reach target depths, shock loading modeling to ensure forces are within CT string limitations, system integration test to verify deployment/reverse technique procedure and system communication to electrically activate guns. CTT integrated sensor assembly was used during deployment/reverse operation with a tension, compression and torque (TCT) sub-assembly to monitor accurate upward/downward forces. In addition, CTT logging adapter assembly was used for depth correlation and electrical guns activation. The ALWD system; composed by connectors and deployment blow out preventor (BOP), prove to be an efficient way to run, perforate and retrieve gross intervals of 212 m, 246 m and 104 m with guns successfully. During all these jobs several lessons learnt were created in order to improve the deployment/reverse procedure for future jobs including not only operational steps but also deployment/reverse bottom-hole assembly (BHA) configurations. Based on the success of these case histories, the ALWD combined with CTT system has been proven to be the preferred method when dealing with long perforation intervals in life well conditions, thru-tubing environment.

This article is devoted to the research of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the economy of the Russian Federation and other countries of the world and its consequences on society. Today, the social policy of the Russian Federation and the whole world is experiencing great stress. The crisis, which arose due to the imposed restrictive measures to ensure the isolation regime in order to prevent the spread of COVID-2019 by foreign governments, revealed previously existing gaps in the provisions of social protection. The ways of formation and improvement of state support of incomes of the population during a crisis situation all over the world are considered. In the conditions of the crisis, the load on the social system has increased many times over, due to the increase in the number of poor citizens. Funding has been introduced for various measures, methods and ways to improve livelihoods and prevent the closure of Micro-Enterprises, SMEs of all types, self-employed and workers, in order to prevent unemployment caused by the global situation. The analysis of the gross domestic product and the effectiveness of the implemented additional measures of state support of the population’s income has been carried out. For example, the leading countries of the world were considered, such as: Russia, Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, USA.

The work is aimed at solving one of the most important fundamental and topical interdisciplinary scientific problems of the Russian Federation – the need for scientific substantiation of optimal options for the functioning of state policy in the field of use, protection, protection and reproduction of forests in the Russian Federation through economic mechanisms aimed at effective management of the forest sector of the economy and increasing gross domestic product in the forestry sector based on market demand for products. Hence, there is a special interest in the processes of the spatio-temporal dissemination of innovations for the country’s forestry complex, especially which are the guarantor and basis of intensive forestry, but due to the specifics of my reproduction, I have a deferred economic effect relative to similar innovative products obtained with the help of basic technologies. The paper provides an analytical review of the rate of diffusion of innovations in the sectors of the forestry complex based on the analysis of reliable and objective indicators, in accordance with which it was concluded that the rate of spread of innovative forestry products in time and space is extremely low. It has been established that one of the factors preventing the diffusion of innovative forestry products is the high cost of their creation and the uncertainty of the result obtained. It has been established that the high capital costs of creating an innovative product for commercial use must be compared with biological advantages: growth rate, resistance to diseases and pests, productivity.

The tourism sector is the single largest contributor to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Malaysia. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are divided into three levels: micro, small and medium-sized - enterprises, in a programme initiated by the government to reduce poverty and cut the income gap between rural and urban residents. The involvement of SMEs in the tourism industry has contributed to the development of a competitive advantage for the tourism industry in Malaysia. SMEs are an important component of the Malaysian economy, accounting for more than a third of the total GDP and providing employment to more than seven million people. However, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak as a worldwide pandemic, it has radically changed the direction of the tourism sector in Malaysia, especially among the micro and small scale enterprises (SMEs). In an effort to slow the spread of the virus, numerous countries introduced and mandated the use of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) including hand washing and sanitisation, social distancing and social isolation. Furthermore, the government has introduced several policies, improved public health systems and closed borders. These developments have restricted and even banned international travel and domestic travel, resulting in severe negative effects on the tourism sector. This unforeseen shock, to the tourism and other sectors, has dragged on for more than 12 months. It has severely curtailed the growth of micro and small scale enterprises (SMEs), leaving many such enterprises on the brink of closure. This study examines the literature and critically reviews the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted SMEs. The methodology of this study uses the method of highlighting literature material systematically. A conceptual research method using secondary data was used in this study.

The paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth, foreign direct investment and employment in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus of research is fiscal policy, which as a lever of economic policy that affects economic growth and development. The aim of the research is to determine the impact of fiscal policy on the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina and propose solutions for higher growth and development, a higher degree of foreign direct investment and reducing the unemployment rate. The results of the research show that the fiscal policy for the years that are the subject of the research, has affected the public debt of the state. High taxes and contributions have contributed to the spread of the gray economy, fiscal discipline is at a low level due to the management in this way of this lever of economic policy. Public financial management should be one of the key macroeconomic goals, with special emphasis on fiscal policy. The research went in the direction of analyzing current trends and proposals for improving the situation. The research aims to show the current statistical impact of variables on gross domestic product, on growth and development and the impact after the application of expansionary fiscal policy on the same variables. It is recommended that economic policy be conducted in the direction of releasing additional funds through the redistribution of taxes in favor of workers, in the direction of capital investments that will repay themselves, to reduce the rate of taxes and contributions on wages and with incentives for investors, to go towards stimulating production and tax reliefs for export-oriented activities with an effort to try to produce products whose production is possible in our conditions, and all this is mostly possible with the implementation of an expansive fiscal policy.

The characteristic of the spread of herbal ecosystems in the agrolandscapes of the Valui district of the South Russian province of the steppe zone of the Central Black Earth of Russia is given. Tramped pastures (with narrow-leaved bluegrass, sheep fescue, motley grass) predominate on the site of the indigenous (rich-motley grass, sheep fescue, feather-grass) Donetsk and middle-Don steppes.

Abstract Prabumulih Field was located in South Sumatra, Indonesia. It has been developed as an oil field since 1920n (It was categorized as a mature field). At the end of 2019, the amount of oil well production was 149 wells (93% of the producing wells installed artificial lifting). As a consequence, to maintain production, artificial lifting surveillance activities must be a major concern and be managed properly. However, there are some challenges for surveillance, for instance, the location of well spread over a large area, the condition of the access road, and limited human resources. Surveillance activity itself carried out manually required both much time and many human resources, however, acquired data was only once in a week for one well. That condition always emerged undesired occurrence because engineers who were in the headquarter did not obtain notification when producing wells were in trouble or suddenly off producing. In addition, there was a delay in time for evaluation and intervention, which resulted in decreased oil production. Nowadays, application, in order to accelerate the data retrieval process, was much needed, especially real-time acquisition and it could be monitored in several kinds of devices. This paper will be presented about the benefit of real-time monitoring application in mature field, especially for artificial lifting well (ESP and Rod Pump). It has been installed since December 2019. There were several benefits obtained after installing this technology, those were related to surveillance and optimization. For instance, reducing time and human resources needed to obtained pump parameter data, engineers who are in the headquarter could observe everyday using both laptop/personal computer and smartphone, engineers obtained notification immediately when there were wells in a trouble, decision making for optimization and or intervention was faster, increase pump run life, and reducing well service program. Besides, there was another benefit that related to cost reduction, for instance saving rig costs for well service of 350,578 USD in a year because the amount of well service decreased from 49 times to 36 times, and obtained additional gross revenue of 547,945 USD for one year (cost for real-time monitoring for a year is 116,438 USD) because production deferment reduced from 19,577 STB to 5,105 STB. Based on those data, real-time monitoring could increase the economic condition of the mature field, so it was worth applying in a mature field.

The characteristic of the spread herbal ecosystems in the agrolandscapes of the Michurinsky district Middle Russian province forest-steppe zone Central Black Earth of Russia is given. Meadow-steppe grass ecosystems with black earths and grey forest soils predominate.

The paper examines the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as captured by its reproduction rate 𝑅t. Using cross-country panel data, the paper finds that while lockdown measures have strong effects on 𝑅t, gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures. Ramping up the testing and tracing of COVID-19 cases is found to be especially effective in controlling the spread of the disease where there is greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. Workplace and school closures are found to have large negative effects on gross domestic product compared with other measures, suggesting that a more targeted approach can be taken to keep the epidemic controlled at lower cost.

Managers are challenged with the impact of problematic plants, including exotic, invasive, and pest plant species. Information on the cover, distribution, and location of these plants is essential for developing risk-based approaches to managing these species. Based on surveys conducted in 2006, 2011, 2015, and 2019, Heartland Network staff and contractors identified a cumulative total of 28 potentially problematic plant taxa in Arkansas Post National Memorial. Of the 23 species found in 2019, we characterized 9 as very low frequency, 7 as low frequency, 5 as medium frequency, and 2 as high frequency. Cover of all species was low with a single species slightly exceeding a 1-acre threshold based on a midpoint estimate. Efforts to control the woody invasive black locust, Chinese privet, and hardy orange appear to have successfully reduced the cover of these plants across the Memorial Unit. Japanese stiltgrass may have been increasing as recently as 2015, but a combination of recent flooding and control efforts may have stemmed the spread of this invasive grass. Efforts to control localized patches of Chinaberry tree also appear to have reduced the cover of this species. Outside of the problematic species currently subject

Malaysia offers a unique lens to evaluate the changing dynamics of radicalization and extremism in Southeast Asia, as the threat of both home-grown and external extremism grows. The country’s geographic location, bordering multiple active centers of violent extremism (the southern Philippines, southern Thailand, and Indonesia), makes it particularly vulnerable to further threats from violent extremism and terrorism, as regional and local violent extremist organizations (VEOs) exploit Malaysian geohistorical contexts and growing grievances related to social and political instability. Threats and risks of violent extremism are especially pronounced and manifest with severe consequences in the Malaysian state of Sabah. This policy note advances a granular review of the dynamics underlying radicalization risk in Sabah, Malaysia, in order to extrapolate an analysis of emerging areas of threat and risk of violent extremism facing Southeast Asia. It offers an opportunity to better understand current and future threats and risks of violent extremism facing Southeast Asia and identifies important trends and recommendations for policymakers and practitioners in mitigating the spread of violent extremism and radicalization to violence in Sabah. The policy note also considers how building local preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) capacity can mitigate Malaysia’s role as a staging area, transit hub, and conduit for the transportation of weapons, operatives, finances, and supporters to other regional and global terrorist organizations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor