Relevant bibliographies by topics / Heuristic biases

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  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers

Academic literature on the topic 'Heuristic biases'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 26 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Heuristic biases"

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Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, Maqsood Ahmad, and Faisal Mahmood. "Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency." Qualitative Research in Financial Markets 10, no. 1 (February 5, 2018): 85–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/qrfm-04-2017-0033.

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Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.
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Gál, Peter, Miloš Mrva, and Matej Meško. "Heuristics, biases and traps in managerial decision making." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 61, no. 7 (2013): 2117–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361072117.

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The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the impact of heuristics, biases and psychological traps on the decision making. Heuristics are unconscious routines people use to cope with the complexity inherent in most decision situations. They serve as mental shortcuts that help people to simplify and structure the information encountered in the world. These heuristics could be quite useful in some situations, while in others they can lead to severe and systematic errors, based on significant deviations from the fundamental principles of statistics, probability and sound judgment. This paper focuses on illustrating the existence of the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics, originally described by Tversky & Kahneman in the early 1970’s. The anchoring heuristic is a tendency to focus on the initial information, estimate or perception (even random or irrelevant number) as a starting point. People tend to give disproportionate weight to the initial information they receive. The availability heuristic explains why highly imaginable or vivid information have a disproportionate effect on people’s decisions. The representativeness heuristic causes that people rely on highly specific scenarios, ignore base rates, draw conclusions based on small samples and neglect scope. Mentioned phenomena are illustrated and supported by evidence based on the statistical analysis of the results of a questionnaire.
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Dangol, Jeetendra, and Rashmita Manandhar. "Impact of Heuristics on Investment Decisions: The Moderating Role of Locus of Control." Journal of Business and Social Sciences Research 5, no. 1 (July 21, 2020): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jbssr.v5i1.30195.

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This paper aims to assess the impact of heuristics on the investment decision by analysing the effect of four heuristic biases, i.e., representativeness, availability, anchoring and adjustment, and overconfidence bias on rationality of Nepalese investor's investment decision-making and also examines the moderating effect of the internal locus of control in between. The study used 391 respondents based on a convenient sampling procedure, and structured questionnaire survey. The study result indicates that there is a significant relationship between irrationality in investment decision-making and all four heuristic biases. In addition, the study also concludes that locus of control has significant moderating effect in the relationship between investment decisions and three heuristic biases, i.e., availability, representative and anchoring bias. However, the study documents no moderation effect in case of relationship with overconfidence bias.
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Henrizi, Philipp, Dario Himmelsbach, and Stefan Hunziker. "Anchoring and adjustment effects on audit judgments: experimental evidence from Switzerland." Journal of Applied Accounting Research 22, no. 4 (February 24, 2021): 598–621. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jaar-01-2020-0011.

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PurposeThe purpose of this study is to illustrate the potentially detrimental effects on audit decision-making of certain judgmental heuristics, which can lead to systematic judgmental biases. This paper provides background on the heuristics and biases approaches to decision-making to increase auditors' awareness of the anchoring and adjustment effects affecting audit judgments adversely.Design/methodology/approachThis study reports the results of an experimental research design analyzing the audit judgment of 85 auditors in Switzerland.FindingsBased on the results of the experiment, the results indicate evidence on the existence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in Swiss audit judgments. The authors could identify an influence of the audit company size, the auditors' experience and the auditors' knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic with regard to the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment.Research limitations/implicationsThe experimental tasks were relatively simple abstractions from the more complex analytical review situations faced by practicing auditors. Due to the small sample size, the authors cannot ensure representativeness of the results.Practical implicationsProfessional judgment is a skill that auditor acquires overtime, combined with experience and knowledge, that allows him to achieve reasonable judgments, being independent of other opinions and free from material biases in a given circumstance. Our results show that auditors who are aware of biases and heuristics are less prone to judgment biases.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to analyze the impact of auditors' explicit experience and knowledge about behaviorism and anchor heuristic on the anchoring and adjustment effect on audit judgment. Through a stronger awareness of cognitive biases, a professional skepticism can be enhanced.
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Bach, Richard M. "Heuristic reasoning and cognitive biases." American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics 140, no. 1 (July 2011): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajodo.2011.05.003.

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Cimpian, Andrei, and Erika Salomon. "Refining and expanding the proposal of an inherence heuristic in human understanding." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 37, no. 5 (October 2014): 506–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x14000028.

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AbstractThe inherence heuristic is a cognitive process that supplies quick and effortless explanations for a wide variety of observations. Due in part to biases in memory retrieval, this heuristic tends to overproduce explanations that appeal to the inherent features of the entities in the observations being explained (hence the heuristic's name). In this response, we use the commentators' input to clarify, refine, and expand the inherence heuristic model. The end result is a piece that complements the target article, amplifying its theoretical contribution.
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Kasoga, Pendo Shukrani. "Heuristic biases and investment decisions: multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy—a survey at the Tanzania stock market." Journal of Money and Business 1, no. 2 (November 1, 2021): 102–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jmb-10-2021-0037.

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PurposeThe purpose of this research is to examine the effect of heuristic biases on investment decisions through multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy in the Tanzanian stock market.Design/methodology/approachA sample of 316 individual investors in the Tanzanian stock market was obtained through questionnaires. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM).FindingsThe findings show that financial literacy mediates insignificantly the effects of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics on investment decisions. Further, financial literacy does not influence the effect of risk tolerance and investment decisions. Risk tolerance is confirmed as a positive mediator of overconfidence, availability, anchoring and representativeness heuristics in investment decisions. Also, the study shows that overconfidence exerts a stronger influence on investment decisions, followed by availability, representativeness, risk tolerance, anchoring and financial literacy.Research limitations/implicationsThe study deals with real investors. Therefore, it uses fewer items to measure the constructs in order to avoid respondent bias. Further research could examine the effects of heuristic biases on investment decisions by adding or modifying the items of particular constructs and studying institutional investors.Practical implicationsThe findings can help individual investors to analyze and evaluate their behavior toward stock selection. Securities institutions can use this research to understand investors' behavior, evaluate future market trends and provide advice to the investors.Originality/valuePrevious studies have examined the impact of heuristics on the investment decisions of individual investors. The unique empirical analysis developed in this paper is that it examines the multiple mediation mechanisms of risk tolerance and financial literacy with respect to heuristic biases and investment decisions in the Tanzanian stock market.
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Nouri, Pouria, and Abdollah AhmadiKafeshani. "Do female and male entrepreneurs differ in their proneness to heuristics and biases?" Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies 12, no. 3 (November 18, 2019): 357–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jeee-05-2019-0062.

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Purpose Although heuristics and biases seal the fate of entrepreneurial enterprises by directly influencing entrepreneurs’ decisions, previous studies have ignored the role of gender in this regard by considering female and male entrepreneurs homogeneous in their susceptibility to heuristics and biases. Thus, this paper aims to advance the existing body of knowledge on heuristics and biases in the field of entrepreneurship by exploring two heuristics of affect and representativeness as well as three biases of overconfidence, escalation of commitment and illusion of control in female and male entrepreneurs’ entry and opportunity-related decisions. Design/methodology/approach The data were gathered through semi-structured and in-depth interviews with ten male and nine female Iranian techno-entrepreneurs active in advanced medicine and biotechnology. The gathered data were analyzed by thematic and narrative data analysis. Findings According to the results, while both male and female entrepreneurs show certain heuristics and biases, there are some noteworthy distinctions. More precisely, contrary to their male counterparts, the female entrepreneurs neither rely on the representativeness heuristic nor show any signs of the escalation of commitment in their decisions. Practical implications There are some valuable implications emanated from this study which could be of use for not only future researchers but also entrepreneurs, especially the ones founding and running small businesses themselves. Originality/value While there is a strong body of literature on heuristics and biases in the field of entrepreneurship, previous studies have considered female and male entrepreneurs homogeneous in their proneness to heuristics and biases. Thus, the current study enriches the body of knowledge by being the first comparative study of heuristics and biases in female and male entrepreneurs’ decisions.
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Savolainen, Reijo. "Heuristics elements of information-seeking strategies and tactics: a conceptual analysis." Journal of Documentation 73, no. 6 (October 9, 2017): 1322–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jd-11-2016-0144.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to elaborate the picture of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching by focusing on the heuristic elements of such strategies and tactics. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual analysis of a sample of 31 pertinent investigations was conducted to find out how researchers have approached heuristics in the above context since the 1970s. To achieve this, the study draws on the ideas produced within the research programmes on Heuristics and Biases, and Fast and Frugal Heuristics. Findings Researchers have approached the heuristic elements in three major ways. First, these elements are defined as general level constituents of browsing strategies in particular. Second, heuristics are approached as search tips. Third, there are examples of conceptualizations of individual heuristics. Familiarity heuristic suggests that people tend to prefer sources that have worked well in similar situations in the past. Recognition heuristic draws on an all-or-none distinction of the information objects, based on cues such as information scent. Finally, representativeness heuristic is based on recalling similar instances of events or objects and judging their typicality in terms of genres, for example. Research limitations/implications As the study focuses on three heuristics only, the findings cannot be generalized to describe the use of all heuristic elements of strategies and tactics for information seeking and searching. Originality/value The study pioneers by providing an in-depth analysis of the ways in which the heuristic elements are conceptualized in the context of information seeking and searching. The findings contribute to the elaboration of the conceptual issues of information behavior research.
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Jasper, Fabian, and Tuulia M. Ortner. "The Tendency to Fall for Distracting Information While Making Judgments." European Journal of Psychological Assessment 30, no. 3 (January 1, 2014): 193–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1015-5759/a000214.

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Despite much research on thinking biases such as the representativeness, availability, and anchoring heuristics, a psychometrically sound measurement instrument for assessing the degree of heuristic thinking is still missing. Therefore, it was the goal of this study to develop and validate a new test to assess the degree of heuristic thinking associated with three particular thinking heuristics (i.e., the representativeness, availability, and anchoring heuristics). The resulting Objective Heuristic Thinking Test (OHTT) was evaluated with regard to its internal consistency, factor structure, construct validity, and stability in an internet sample (N = 300) and an independent laboratory sample (N = 55). Exploratory factor analyses resulted in three latent factors that represented the three OHTT subscales (i.e., representativeness, availability, and anchoring factors). Results revealed a low to sufficient internal consistency for each of the three scales. Further analyses indicated convergent correlations of the OHTT scales with related constructs such as field-independency. Furthermore, good stability of the test scores was shown. Conclusions are drawn regarding possible future applications of the OHTT as a promising tool for studying the origins of heuristic thinking processes.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Heuristic biases"

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Liersch, Michael James. "Testing the boundary conditions of biases resulting from heuristic processes /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC IP addresses, 2007. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3266844.

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Mistele, Jean May. "Exploring Middle School Students' Heuristic Thinking about Probability." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/47918.

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This descriptive qualitative study examines six eighth-grade students' thinking while solving probability problems. This study aimed to gather direct information on students' problem solving processes informed by the heuristics and biases framework. This study used purposive sampling (Patton, 1990) to identify eighth-grade students who were knowledgeable about probability and had reached the formal operational stage of cognitive development. These criterion were necessary to reduce the likelihood of students' merely guessing answers and important so that the researcher could distinguish between reasoning and intuition. The theoretical framework for this study was informed by Kahneman and Fredrick's (2002) recent revision to the heuristics and biases framework grounded in the research of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Kahneman and Fredrick (2002) drew on dual process theory to explain systematic and predictable heuristic ways of thinking. Dual process theory hypothesizes that human thinking is divided into two different modes of processing. One mode, called System 1, is fast and linked to intuition, and the other, called System 2, is slow and linked to reasoning (Evans, 2008; Stanovich and West, 2000). Within dual process theory, System 1 thinking provides a credible system for explaining why people use heuristic thinking (Kahneman and Frederick, 2002). The recent revision to the heuristics and biases framework is focused on three heuristics, representativeness, conjunction fallacy, and availability. These three heuristics are believed to share the same mental process identified by Kahneman and Fredrick (2002), as the attribute substitution process. The clinical task based interview method was used in this study. This technique allowed the researcher to better observe and interact with the participants while exploring the students' probability thinking. The researcher also used think-aloud protocols to better reveal the organic thinking patterns of the students in real time (Ericsson and Simon, 1980; Fox, Ericsson, and Bets, 2010; Van Someren, Barnard, and Sandberg, 1994). The data from the interviews were analyzed using the constant comparison method (Glaser, 1965). This analysis revealed three categories that were combined with other analyses to create profiles for various thinking patterns observed by the researcher. The researcher identified patterns of thinking by students that were consistent with System 1 thinking and associated with the attribute substitution process (Kahneman and Fredrick, 2002). There were also situations in which students demonstrated ways of thinking consistent with System 2 thinking. However, unexpected ways of thinking were also identified by the researcher. For example, there were occasions when students substituted their fraction knowledge when solving probability problems and even seemed to equate probability with fractions. This type of thinking was referred to as the content substitution process in this study. This process occurred when students were using System 1 thinking as well as other types of thinking. In addition, the researcher observed students with thinking patterns that contained characteristics of both System 1 and System 2, which is referred to as slow intuition in this study. Slow intuition seemed to affect students' problem solving strategies as they wavered between multiple problem solving strategies that included either of the two substitution processes: attribute substitution and content substitution. This study contributes to the body of knowledge related to probabilistic thinking. In particular, this study informs our understanding of heuristic thinking used by eighth-grade students when solving probability problems. Further, teaching practices that draw on Fischbein's (1975, 1987) general notion of intuition might be developed and used to improve probability reasoning skills. These teaching practices target students that depend on the attribute substitution process and/or the content substitution process. Each of these heuristic ways of thinking may require different instructional techniques to help students develop more sound ways of thinking about probability. Regardless, teachers need to be informed of the extent that some students rely on their fraction knowledge when solving probability problems.
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Sinyard, David B. "The Investment Process Used By Private Equity Firms: Does The Affect Heuristic Impact Decision-Making?" Digital Archive @ GSU, 2013. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/bus_admin_diss/25.

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Individuals utilize heuristics in order to simplify problems, which may lead to biases in decision-making. The research question of this study is: “How does the affect heuristic impact the investment process of private equity decision-makers reviewing proposals?” Through an exploratory multi-case analysis, insight is provided into complex private equity decisions by studying biases in the investment process. This is a study of private equity groups’ (PEG) decision-making process when they consider businesses for investment. Qualitative data was generated from semi-structured interviews with twenty private equity decision-makers. The deliberative heuristics applied in the teaser review are learned from process experience and guide the deliberation on whether to proceed. Simplifying heuristics are applied in the more informal review process. Organizational learning was exhibited as the PEGs have modified their investment structures based on previous experiences. The study indicates that experience and learning lead to the construction of an affect heuristic that subsequently impacts investments. It also confirms the need for strategic decision-makers to recognize their own biases and adjust their processes accordingly. A significant practical implication of this study is the insight provided into the views of the PEG decision-makers as they anticipate the need to supplement the management team is helpful to business owners and their advisors. The study highlights the opportunities for biases in PEG decision-making processes. Accessing decision-makers at larger PEGs and approaching more middle market firms would broaden the results.
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Van, Dyke Thomas P. (Thomas Peter). "The Effects of Alternative Presentation Formats on Biases and Heuristics in Human Decision Making." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1996. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc279303/.

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The purpose of this research was to determine whether changes in the presentation format of items in a computer display could be used to alter the impact of specific cognitive biases, and to add to the knowledge needed to construct theory-based guidelines for output design. The problem motivating this study is twofold. The first part of the problem is the sub-optimal decision making caused by the use of heuristics and their associated cognitive biases. The second part of the problem is the lack of a theoretical basis to guide the design of information presentation formats to counter the effects of such biases. An availability model of the impact of changes in presentation format on biases and heuristics was constructed based on the findings of a literature review. A six-part laboratory experiment was conducted utilizing a sample of 205 student subjects from the college of business. The independent variable was presentation format which was manipulated by altering the visual salience or visual recency of items of information in a visual computer display. The dependent variables included recall, perceived importance, and the subjects' responses to three judgment tasks. The results clearly demonstrate that changes in presentation format can be used to alter the impact of cognitive biases on human decision making. The results also provide support for the availability model, with the exception of the proposed influence of learning style. Learning style was found to have no significant impact on decision making whether alone or in combination with changes in presentation format. The results of this investigation demonstrate that by using our knowledge of cognitive processes (e.g., the visual salience effect, the visual recency effect, and the availability heuristic), presentation formats can be altered in order to moderate the effects of certain biases and heuristics in human decision making. An understanding of these results may be useful in improving DSS design.
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Khoo, Agnes Y. "A transactional level analysis of residential real estate: Implications of foreign investment, mis-pricing and disposition effects." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2022. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/228737/1/Agnes_Khoo_Thesis.pdf.

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Australia, as a resource country, has relied on foreign investment to meet the shortfall of domestic savings against investment needs. However, recent concerns around the effects of foreign investment in residential properties has been an issue yet unaddressed. This thesis attempts to fill this gap by utilising a novel set of granular data for improved objectivity and transparency using a small, open economy (the Gold Coast) as a setting. OLS estimates support the hypothesis that foreign investors paid more for units relative to owner occupiers; mispricing is evident within the market and only weak evidence of disposition effect present.
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Petraitienė, Vilma. "Kognityvinių poslinkių pasireiškimas vadovaujančiam ir nevadovaujančiam personalui, priimant sprendimus grupėse ir individualiai." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2009. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2009~D_20091222_103556-97521.

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Šiuolaikinės organizacijos gyvena intensyvių pokyčių sąlygomis, kai reikia keisti nusistovėjusius darbo būdus. Vis didesnį pagreitį įgauna komandinio darbo tempas (Lipinskienė, Stokaitė, 2005). Tačiau ribotas sprendimų racionalumas pastebimas net ir kai sprendimai priimami komandoje (Vathanophas, Suensilpong, Pacharapha, 2008; Chugh, Bazerman, 2005; Fleming, 2003). Iš vadovaujančio personalo darbuotojų, paprastai, yra laukiama kokybiškų ir objektyvių sprendimų Taigi tikėtina, kad kognityviniai poslinkiai dažniau pasireikš tarp nevadovaujančio personalo darbuotojų, kuriems sprendimus, bent jau kuriančius pridėtinę vertę, tenka priimti rečiau. Tačiau šios prielaidos vis dar verčia abejoti tyrėjus (Certo, Connelly ir Tihanyi, 2008; Puškorius 2006). Keliamas šio darbo tikslas - nustatyti kognityvinių poslinkių pasireiškimą vadovaujančiam ir nevadovaujančiam personalui, priimant sprendimus grupėse ir individualiai. Tyrime dalyvavo 246 mažmeninės prekybos įmonės UAB „Eiginta“ darbuotojai, iš jų 18,7 % vyrų (n=46) ir 81,3 % moterų (n=200), nuo 24 iki 58 metų amžiaus (amžiaus vidurkis – 37,52 ± 6,06 metų). Kad įvertintume kognityvių poslinkių pasireiškimą, asmenims priimant sprendimus tiek individualiai, tiek grupėse, vieni tyrimo dalyviai turėjo užpildyti užduočių lapą A forma, kiti- B Forma. A ir B formas sudarė dešimt užduočių (5 skirtingos, 5 vienodos), nagrinėjančių įvairių euristikų panaudojimą. Tyrimo rezultatai leidžia teigti, kad kognityviniai poslinkiai pasireiškia tiek... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
Contemporary organizations are existing under conditions of intense changes when established ways of work are to be altered and the speed of the teamwork is regularly increasing; nevertheless, limited rationality in solution taking is also observed when decisions are made in a team. There is no doubt that high-quality objective decisions are expected from the management personnel; it is also plausible that thinking biases will manifest more frequently among non-management employees who also have to make decisions less frequently. However, these assumptions still raise doubts among researchers (Certo, Connelly and Tihanyi, 2008; Puškorius 2006). The aim of this work is to discover the manifestation of thinking biases in management and non-management personnel when making decisions in groups and individually. 246 employees of Eiginta Ltd., an enterprise specializing in retail trade, took part in the analysis including 18.7 % males (n=46) and 81.3 % females (n=200), aged from 24 to 58 (age average 37.52 ± 6.06 years). In order to assess the manifestation of thinking biases when making decisions, participants of the research individually and in groups had to fill in an assignment sheet: Form A and Form B. Both sheets of assignments, i.e. Forms A and B consisted of ten tasks dealing with the manifestation of various types of heuristics among employees. The results of the research allow to claim that thinking biases are manifested both among the management personnel and... [to full text]
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AlKhars, Mohammed. "Decision Makers’ Cognitive Biases in Operations Management: An Experimental Study." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc849675/.

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Behavioral operations management (BOM) has gained popularity in the last two decades. The main theme in this new stream of research is to include the human behavior in Operations Management (OM) models to increase the effectiveness of such models. BOM is classified into 4 areas: cognitive psychology, social psychology, group dynamics and system dynamics (Bendoly et al. 2010). This dissertation will focus on the first class, namely cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychology is further classified into heuristics and biases. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discussed 3 heuristics and 13 cognitive biases that usually face decision makers. This dissertation is going to study 6 cognitive biases under the representativeness heuristic. The model in this dissertation states that cognitive reflection of the individual (Frederick 2005) and training about cognitive biases in the form of warning (Kaufmann and Michel 2009) will help decisions’ makers make less biased decisions. The 6 cognitive biases investigated in this dissertation are insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance, insensitivity to predictability, the illusion of validity and misconception of regression. 6 scenarios in OM contexts have been used in this study. Each scenario corresponds to one cognitive bias. Experimental design has been used as the research tool. To see the impact of training, one group of the participants received the scenarios without training and the other group received them with training. The training consists of a brief description of the cognitive bias as well as an example of the cognitive bias. Cognitive reflection is operationalized using cognitive reflection test (CRT). The survey was distributed to students at University of North Texas (UNT). Logistic regression has been employed to analyze data. The research shows that participants show the cognitive biases proposed by Tversky and Kahneman. Moreover, CRT is significant factor to predict the cognitive bias in two scenarios. Finally, providing training in terms of warning helps participants to make more rational decisions in 4 scenarios. This means that although cognitive biases are inherent in the mind of people, management of corporations has the tool to educate its managers and professionals about such biases which helps companies make more rational decisions.
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Sarkar, Abhishek. "The Gambler's Fallacy and Hot Outcome: Cognitive Biases or Adaptive Thinking for Goalkeepers' Decisions on Dive Direction During Penalty Shootouts." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1483529030818181.

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Hathout, Michel. "Évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues fluviales à partir du jugement d’expert." Thesis, Paris Est, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PESC1005/document.

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Les digues de protection contre les inondations sont d’une importance stratégique incontournable pour la sécurité des personnes et des biens. Une meilleure connaissance de leur fiabilité structurelle constitue un enjeu majeur pour les ingénieurs et pour les gestionnaires de ces ouvrages afin de répondre aux réglementations en vigueur et potentiellement les faire évoluer. La réglementation en France relative à la sûreté des ouvrages hydrauliques exige la réalisation d’études de dangers, au sein desquelles les démarches probabilistes d’évaluation de la sécurité prennent une place de plus en plus importante. De par la complexité de leurs mécanismes de rupture et l’absence de condition d’état-limite précis pour certains mécanismes de défaillance tels que l’érosion interne, la surverse ou l’affouillement, le calcul d’une probabilité de défaillance par des approches quantitatives demeure à ce jour impossible. Les digues induisent des problématiques particulières pour l’évaluation de leur fiabilité structurelle où l’intervention d’experts s’avère nécessaire et centrale. Ceux-ci doivent procéder à l’interprétation des données disponibles et la prise en compte de leurs incertitudes, pour pouvoir ensuite évaluer la fiabilité structurelle de digues en termes de probabilité de défaillance. L’objectif de la thèse est l’élaboration d’une démarche complète d’aide à l’évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues à partir du jugement expert. Une démarche scientifiquement justifiée pour le recueil et l’exploitation des évaluations expertes, incertaines mais quantitatives, de la fiabilité structurelle des ouvrages, sous la forme d’une probabilité de défaillance ou d’un coefficient de sécurité, assorti(e) d’une marge d’incertitude probabiliste. Afin de répondre à cet objectif, deux démarches ont été développée, « EiCAD » et « EiDA », toutes reposant (dans des ordres différents) sur les phases suivantes :- Une phase d’élicitation individuelle des avis experts (Ei) permettant le recueil des évaluations expertes probabilistes par la construction d’un formulaire de questionnement ;- Une phase de calibration (C) permettant de pondérer les évaluations expertes en fonction des degrés de précision et de justesse ;- Une phase d’agrégation (A) permettant une prise en compte simultanée de plusieurs évaluations expertes probabilistes ;- Une phase de débiaisage (D) permettant de traiter les biais susceptibles d’entacher les évaluations expertes probabilistes. Les démarches développées ont été mises en œuvre sur des cas de digues du Drac, dans l’agglomération grenobloise, pour évaluer la probabilité de défaillance, par jugement expert, vis-à-vis de mécanisme de rupture par glissement et par érosion interne
River levees as protective measures against flooding are a matter of utmost strategic importance for the security of people and property. A better knowledge of their structural reliability is a major challenge for engineers and managers of these structures in order to meet current regulations and potentially develop them. In France, the regulations relating to the safety of hydraulic structures require the realization of hazard studies, in which probabilistic safety evaluation procedures take on a more and more important role. Due to the complexity of their failure mechanisms and the lack of a specific condition of limit-state for some failure mechanisms such as internal erosion and overtopping or scour, calculating a probability of failure by quantitative approaches remains impossible to this day. Levees induce specific problems in evaluating their structural reliability where expert intervention is necessary and pivotal. They must interpret the available data and take into account the uncertainties in their analysis, in order to evaluate the structural reliability of levees in terms of probability of failure. The aim of the thesis is to develop and elaborate a complete approach for supporting probabilistic evaluation of structural reliability of levees based on expert judgments. It is designed as a scientifically justified approach to collect and use uncertain but quantitative expert evaluations of structural reliability, in the form of a failure probability or a safety factor, accompanied by a margin of probabilistic uncertainty. To meet this goal, two approaches have been developed, "EiCAD" and "EiDA" composed of the following phases (in different orders):- individual elicitation phase of expert judgment (Ei) allowing the collection of probabilistic expert evaluations by a constricted questionnaire ;- calibration phase (C) to weigh the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited depending on the degrees of precision and accuracy that can be provided;- aggregation phase (A) during which the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited by several experts are taken into account ;- debiasing phase (D) during which biases that may affect the probabilistic expert evaluations are removed. The developed approaches have been implemented for the cases of Drac levees, located in the Grenoble agglomeration, to assess the probability of failure, by expert judgment, with regard to sliding and internal erosion mechanism of failure
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Fendley, Mary E. "Human Cognitive Biases and Heuristics in Image Analysis." Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1257278185.

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Books on the topic "Heuristic biases"

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Linda, Heath, Loyola University of Chicago. Applied Social Psychology Graduate Program., and Society for the Psychological Study of Social Issues., eds. Applications of heuristics and biases to social issues. New York: Plenum Press, 1994.

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Chatfield, Tom, and Tom Chatfield. Heuristics and Cognitive Biases. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks California 91320: SAGE Publications, Inc., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781071880029.

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Thomas, Gilovich, Griffin Dale W, and Kahneman Daniel, eds. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

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Heath, Linda, R. Scott Tindale, John Edwards, Emil J. Posavac, Fred B. Bryant, Eaaron Henderson-King, Yolanda Suarez-Balcazar, and Judith Myers, eds. Applications of Heuristics and Biases to Social Issues. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9238-6.

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Thomas, Gilovich, Griffin Dale W, and Kahneman Daniel 1934-, eds. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. Cambridge, U.K: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

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Schwenk, Charles R. The manipulation of cognitive biases and heuristics in the creation of commitment. [Urbana, Ill.]: College of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1985.

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Kahneman, Daniel. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 2013.

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Kahneman, Daniel. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 2013.

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Collins, Megan Eileen, and Thomas A. Loughran. Rational Choice Theory, Heuristics, and Biases. Edited by Wim Bernasco, Jean-Louis van Gelder, and Henk Elffers. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199338801.013.1.

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A growing body of research on offender decision making has focused on studying the use of heuristic biases, or cognitive shortcuts taken in certain situations, when offenders make decisions in the face of uncertainty. The idea is that when offenders (or any individuals) are contemplating uncertain decisions with limited time, information, or resources to make a rational choice calculus, heuristics enable a suitable decision to be reached quickly. However, often heuristics can lead to biases, errors, preference reversals, or suboptimal decisions. This chapter considers departures from rational behavior and heuristics and biases, specifically how the latter have been integrated into the study of offenders’ choice calculus. In particular, it reviews how biases and deviations from rationality have been routinely observed when studying offender decisions.
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Campbell, Marcella E. Investigating self-assessment accuracy from the heuristics and biases perspective. 2005.

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Book chapters on the topic "Heuristic biases"

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Kulik, Carol T., and Elissa L. Perry. "Heuristic Processing in Organizational Judgments." In Applications of Heuristics and Biases to Social Issues, 185–204. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-9238-6_10.

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Sinha, Aakash, Rémy Cazabet, and Rémi Vaudaine. "Systematic Biases in Link Prediction: Comparing Heuristic and Graph Embedding Based Methods." In Studies in Computational Intelligence, 81–93. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05411-3_7.

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Letkiewicz, Jodi. "Heuristics and Biases." In Client Psychology, 25–42. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119440895.ch4.

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Chernoff, Egan J., and Bharath Sriraman. "Heuristics and Biases." In Encyclopedia of Mathematics Education, 327–30. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15789-0_100010.

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Nomi, Jason S., Anthony J. Ryals, and Anne M. Cleary. "Biases and Heuristics." In Encyclopedia of Sciences and Religions, 193–94. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8265-8_200041.

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Chernoff, Egan J., and Bharath Sriraman. "Heuristics and Biases." In Encyclopedia of Mathematics Education, 1–4. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77487-9_100010-1.

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Newell, Ben R., David A. Lagnado, and David R. Shanks. "Judgemental Heuristics and Biases." In Straight Choices, 77–97. 3rd ed. London: Psychology Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003289890-6.

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Wilkinson, Nick, and Matthias Klaes. "Beliefs, Heuristics and Biases." In An Introduction to Behavioral Economics, 115–45. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-39103-1_4.

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Gonçalves, José Fernando, and Mauricio G. C. Resende. "Biased Random-Key Genetic Progamming." In Handbook of Heuristics, 23–37. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07124-4_25.

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Gonçalves, José Fernando, and Mauricio G. C. Resende. "Biased Random-Key Genetic Progamming." In Handbook of Heuristics, 1–15. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07153-4_25-1.

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Conference papers on the topic "Heuristic biases"

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Olfer, Ivan. "Vectors of exact forecast in the study of behavioral finance." In 4th Economic International Conference "Competitiveness and Sustainable Development". Technical University of Moldova, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.52326/csd2022.44.

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Strongly determined that for true planning and right decision in the economic markets circle the standard (classical) economic theory is not enough. Not infrequently economic forecasting according to classical theory, in the circle of markets, founds, enterprises relatively to results is not profitable and expected. For right prognosis and decision making is necessary to use behavioral theory. Some theory and methods for scientific research may be similar, and representative for all investigations. There are numerous similarities and differences in these theories according to institutions, methods and theory aspects. The behavioral theory refers to psychological and human behavioral algorithms, some biases, emotional filters, heuristic, farming and emotional concepts. Analyzing these factors open the way to more accurate and exact analysis. Behavioral finance can be analyzed to understand different outcomes across a variety of sectors and industries when we can`t fully understand it with standard theory. During the time appears a lot of schools of thoughts about human behavior, wishes and irrationality created with emotions, emphasized changing irrationality according to age, social status, gender, even wealth and level of educations. Recognized that these factors are interrelated, and this relating create biases, that could use like axioms for behavior understanding, and create representative sample for different environments (markets, companies etc.), and countries (low or high developed) where presented low level of shadow economy or even extremely high, all justified with number of variables. Methods. Classification, Analytic-Synthetic, Historical-Logical, Modeling, Systematization.
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Hallihan, Gregory M., Hyunmin Cheong, and L. H. Shu. "Confirmation and Cognitive Bias in Design Cognition." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-71258.

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The desire to better understand design cognition has led to the application of literature from psychology to design research, e.g., in learning, analogical reasoning, and problem solving. Psychological research on cognitive heuristics and biases offers another relevant body of knowledge for application. Cognitive biases are inherent biases in human information processing, which can lead to suboptimal reasoning. Cognitive heuristics are unconscious rules utilized to enhance the efficiency of information processing and are possible antecedents of cognitive biases. This paper presents two studies that examined the role of confirmation bias, which is a tendency to seek and interpret evidence in order to confirm existing beliefs. The results of the first study, a protocol analysis involving novice designers engaged in a biomimetic design task, indicate that confirmation bias is present during concept generation and offer additional insights into the influence of confirmation bias in design. The results of the second study, a controlled experiment requiring participants to complete a concept evaluation task, suggest that decision matrices are effective tools to reduce confirmation bias during concept evaluation.
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Maqsood, Tayyab, Andrew Finegan, and Derek Walker. "Biases and Heuristics in Judgment and Decision Making: The Dark Side of Tacit Knowledge." In InSITE 2004: Informing Science + IT Education Conference. Informing Science Institute, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/2739.

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The crux of knowledge management theory is to devise different strategies to capture the tacit knowledge of the people in the organization, to make it explicit and to share it throughout the organization. This paper draws from the literature in cognitive psychology and highlights the limitation of the human mind by observing that knowledge is lost out of memory over time. Judgment and gut feelings are usually associated with different forms of biases and heuristics that may influence decision making negatively by altering the context in which the knowledge has been constructed. The paper argues that the timing and context in which tacit knowledge has been shaped is of immense importance when attempting to capture it. It is suggested that, while striving to capture the tacit knowledge of the individuals, it is important to make sure that it is not under the influence of any bias and its context is accurately perceived and preserved. Biased and incomplete knowledge may do more harm than good and should be avoided.
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Canikli, Seda. "Typology Of Behavioral Biases And Heuristics." In Joint Conference ISMC 2018-ICLTIBM 2018 - 14th International Strategic Management Conference & 8th International Conference on Leadership, Technology, Innovation and Business Management. Cognitive-Crcs, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2019.01.02.26.

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Yeazitzis, Taylor, Kristin Weger, Joseph Clerkin, and Bryan Mesmer. "Heuristics and Biases in System Architecture." In 2022 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9841477.

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Meluso, John, and Jesse Austin-Breneman. "Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and Their Effects on System Performance." In ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2017-68202.

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Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems affect system evolution yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Interviews with several expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that the systems engineers’ “gaming” strategy of counteracting subsystem bias may decrease system-level estimate accuracy and increase uncertainty.
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Maia Bragança, Beatriz, and Chesil Batista Silva. "The impact of the anchoring heuristic on the financial decision-making process of elderly people in relation to the acquisition of payroll-deductible loans." In 7th International Congress on Scientific Knowledge. Perspectivas Online: Humanas e Sociais Aplicadas, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25242/8876113220212426.

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This research aims to investigate whether the financial decision-making process of elderly people in the acquisition of payroll loans is influenced by the anchoring heuristic. In the Anchorage heuristic, individuals focus their attention on recently received information and use it as a reference to make a decision, or itcan also be the result of a partial or incomplete analysis of the received information, which often happens with elderly people. As the financial decision-making process is somewhat complex, the use of mental shortcuts (Heuristics) to facilitate decisionscould lead to catastrophic long-term indebtedness situations, especially in elderly people in a situation of gradual decline in physical and psychological health. This is a qualitative, quantitative, exploratory, descriptive and survey research, the data collection instrument used refers to the adaptation of a questionnaire that aims to seek answers for possible effects and/or relationships between anchoring and financial decision making, using as a measurement and analysis parameter the method proposed byJacowitz & Kahneman (1995). Expected with this research to measure the impact of the anchoring heuristic in the financial decision-making process of elderly citizens, retirees and/or INSS beneficiaries in the acquisition of payroll-deductible loans. In this way, if the bias hypothesis is confirmed, strategies to support financial education may be implemented as an initiative to minimize the heuristic effects, culminating in a better quality of life for the elderly class, with effects on the general population.
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Teodoriu, Catalin, and Saeed Salehi. "How Heuristics and Biases Impact Judgment and Decision Making in Well Integrity Operations." In ASME 2019 38th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2019-96820.

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Abstract The contribution of the human factor in major oil and gas accident events is fully-fledged and admitted. The root cause analysis and incident investigation of these accidents reveal that many of them could have been prevented, with the perception that there was a cascade of failures in human factor elements. This is easy to comprehend, as the human factor has not been accentuated thoroughly in this industry and traditionally the focus has been on personnel knowledge and competence. A previous paper presented at OMAE 2018 had a brief overview of well integrity, and the pivotal role of cementing operations in well control. The critical role of human and organizational factors in cementing operations and well control was addressed. Furthermore, an outline of the newly implemented SEMS II regulations was also offered, with insight into adjustments that could enhance this program’s modest requirements. In this paper, the goal is to examine the key heuristics that operational people employ in well integrity procedures. Some of these cognitive biases include status-quo and confirmation biases. Several examples will be discussed to show how underlying biases can lead to improper decisions. Unfortunately, some of these biases have been embedded in companies cultures for several decades now, and are hard to change overnight. Some of these can often lead to tremendous operational costs and not necessary solving the problem. It is highly recommended that training schools consider the problems of psychological biases and start implementing case studies for improvement in judgment and decision making.
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ElSayed, Karim A., Ilias Bilionis, and Jitesh H. Panchal. "Evaluating Heuristics in Engineering Design: A Reinforcement Learning Approach." In ASME 2021 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2021-70425.

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Abstract Heuristics are essential for addressing the complexities of engineering design processes. The goodness of heuristics is context-dependent. Appropriately tailored heuristics can enable designers to find good solutions efficiently, and inappropriate heuristics can result in cognitive biases and inferior design outcomes. While there have been several efforts at understanding which heuristics are used by designers, there is a lack of normative understanding about when different heuristics are suitable. Towards addressing this gap, this paper presents a reinforcement learning-based approach to evaluate the goodness of heuristics for three sub-problems commonly faced by designers: (1) learning the map between the design space and the performance space, (2) acquiring sequential information, and (3) stopping the information acquisition process. Using a multi-armed bandit formulation and simulation studies, we learn the suitable heuristics for these individual sub-problems under different resource constraints and problem complexities. Additionally, we learn the optimal heuristics for the combined problem (i.e., the one composing all three sub-problems), and we compare them to ones learned at the sub-problem level. The results of our simulation study indicate that the proposed reinforcement learning-based approach can be effective for determining the quality of heuristics for different problems, and how the effectiveness of the heuristics changes as a function of the designer’s preference (e.g., performance versus cost), the complexity of the problem, and the resources available.
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Islam, Fahad, Oren Salzman, and Maxim Likhachev. "Online, Interactive User Guidance for High-dimensional, Constrained Motion Planning." In Twenty-Seventh International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-18}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2018/683.

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We consider the problem of planning a collision-free path for a high-dimensional robot. Specifically, we suggest a planning framework where a motion-planning algorithm can obtain guidance from a user. In contrast to existing approaches that try to speed up planning by incorporating experiences or demonstrations ahead of planning, we suggest to seek user guidance only when the planner identifies that it ceases to make significant progress towards the goal. Guidance is provided in the form of an intermediate configuration q^, which is used to bias the planner to go through q^. We demonstrate our approach for the case where the planning algorithm is Multi-Heuristic A* (MHA*) and the robot is a 34-DOF humanoid. We show that our approach allows to compute highly-constrained paths with little domain knowledge. Without our approach, solving such problems requires carefully-crafted domain-dependent heuristics.
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