Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Hill, conditions de'

The prevailing prevention literature has increasingly expanded the scope of HIV/AIDS drivers beyond the behavioural and social to encompass an increasing focus on the structural drivers of AIDS. Throughout the structural drivers literature is an emphasis on the need for upstream interventions that shape policy and influence political processes (Gibbs et al 2012; Hunsman 2012; Parkhurst 2013). Some of the literature recommends an emphasis on promoting political processes that catalyse political change and address underlying forms of inequality (Heise and Watts 2013; Gibbs et al 2012). This literature dovetails with literature that advocates for an increasing emphasis on the political determinants of health in health promotions programming (Ottersen et al 2014). At the same time new directions in the HIV/AIDS preventative community mobilization literatures has emphasized the need to rethink and re-conceptualise community mobilization in the 21st century (Campbell 2014). More broadly systematic reviews of the literature suggest the need for an increasing focus on community mobilization efforts that respond to and influence the political context of health (Cornish et al 2014). This dissertations aims to influence and inform the space between these literatures through an empirical look into the convergence of the Nelson Mandela Foundations (NMF) Community Conversations political animus and a historical and present day reading of the ways in which structural forms of violence (Galtung 1969) continue to be inscribed into the life trajectories of residents/citizens living in Ingquza Hill, South Africa. The findings in this dissertation are based on narrative analyses of N = 63 life histories and semi-structured interviews conducted with residents, CC facilitators and participants, and local influential stakeholders that directly experienced, lived, and embodied this convergence throughout the dialogical and actioned oriented phases of the Community Conversations process. Findings suggest that the basis for re-conceptualising of community mobilization for the 21st century be predicated on a more politicized framing of HIV/AIDS along with a more explicit and intentional valuation of the intersection between the social and political determinants of health in programmes that employ community mobilization. Intersecting social and political power dynamics play a significant role in both opening up and the cultivation of civic spaces that promote responsive and inclusionary forms of local governance and decision-making. This in part entails an increased emphasis on the creation of accompaniment oriented socio-political technologies that intentionally support the cultivation of health enabling democracy.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: An accurate description of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is a prerequisite for computational fluid dynamic (CFD) wind studies. This includes taking into account the thermal stability of the atmosphere, which can be stable, neutral or unstable, depending on the nature of the surface fluxes of momentum and heat. The diurnal variation between stable and unstable conditions in the Namib Desert interdune was measured and quantified using the wind velocity and temperature profiles that describe the thermally stratified atmosphere, as derived by Monin- Obukhov similarity theory. The implementation of this thermally stratified atmosphere into CFD has been examined in this study by using Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models. The maintenance of the temperature, velocity and turbulence profiles along an extensive computational domain length was required, while simultaneously allowing for full variation in pressure and density through the ideal gas law. This included the implementation of zero heat transfer from the surface, through the boundary layer, under neutral conditions so that the adiabatic lapse rate could be sustained. Buoyancy effects were included by adding weight to the fluid, leading to the emergence of the hydrostatic pressure field and the resultant density changes expected in the real atmosphere. The CFD model was validated against measured data, from literature, for the flow over a cosine hill in a wind tunnel. The standard k-ε and SST k-ω turbulence models, modified for gravity effects, represented the data most accurately. The flow over an idealised transverse dune immersed in the thermally stratified ABL was also investigated. It was found that the flow recovery was enhanced and re-attachment occurred earlier in unstable conditions, while flow recovery and re-attachment took longer in stable conditions. It was also found that flow acceleration over the crest of the dune was greater under unstable conditions. The effect of the dune on the flow higher up in the atmosphere was also felt at much higher distances for unstable conditions, through enhanced vertical velocities. Under stable conditions, vertical velocities were reduced, and the influence on the flow higher up in the atmosphere was much less than for unstable or neutral conditions. This showed that the assumption of neutral conditions could lead to an incomplete picture of the flow conditions that influence any particular case of interest.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Akkurate beskrywing van die atmosferiese grenslaag (ABL) is 'n voorvereiste vir wind studies met berekenings-vloeimeganika (CFD). Dit sluit in die inagneming van die termiese stabiliteit van die atmosfeer, wat stabiel, neutraal of onstabiel kan wees, afhangende van die aard van die oppervlak vloed van momentum en warmte. Die daaglikse variasie tussen stabiele en onstabiele toestande in die Namib Woestyn interduin is gemeet en gekwantifiseer deur gebruik te maak van die wind snelheid en temperatuur profiele wat die termies gestratifiseerde atmosfeer, soos afgelei deur Monin-Obukhov teorie, beskryf. Die implementering van hierdie termies gestratifiseerde atmosfeer in CFD is in hierdie studie aangespreek deur gebruik te maak van RANS turbulensie modelle. Die handhawing van die temperatuur, snelheid en turbulensie profiele in die lengte van 'n uitgebreide berekenings domein is nodig, en terselfdertyd moet toegelaat word vir volledige variasie in die druk en digtheid, deur die ideale gaswet. Dit sluit in die implementering van zero hitte-oordrag vanaf die grond onder neutrale toestande sodat die adiabatiese vervaltempo volgehou kan word. Drykrag effekte is ingesluit deur die toevoeging van gewig na die vloeistof, wat lei tot die ontwikkeling van die hidrostatiese druk veld, en die gevolglike digtheid veranderinge, wat in die werklike atmosfeer verwag word. Die CFD-model is gevalideer teen gemete data, vanaf die literatuur, vir die vloei oor 'n kosinus heuwel in 'n windtonnel. Die standaard k-ε en SST k-ω turbulensie modelle, met veranderinge vir swaartekrag effekte, het die data mees akkuraat voorgestel. Die vloei oor 'n geïdealiseerde transversale duin gedompel in die termies gestratifiseerde ABL is ook ondersoek. Daar is bevind dat die vloei herstel is versterk en terug-aanhegging het vroeër plaasgevind in onstabiele toestande, terwyl vloei herstel en terug-aanhegging langer gevat het in stabiele toestande. Daar is ook bevind dat vloei versnelling oor die kruin van die duin groter was onder onstabiele toestande. Die effek van die duin op die vloei hoër op in die atmosfeer is ook op hoër afstande onder onstabiele toestande gevoel, deur middel van verhoogte vertikale snelhede. Onder stabiele toestande, is vertikale snelhede verminder, en die invloed op die vloei hoër op in die atmosfeer was veel minder as vir onstabiel of neutrale toestande. Dit het getoon dat die aanname van neutrale toestande kan lei tot 'n onvolledige beeld van die vloei toestande wat 'n invloed op 'n bepaalde geval kan hê.

Les problèmes d'analyse de stabilité ont longtemps été étudiés dans le cadre de la théorie classique de la plasticité. Cette théorie fait souvent l'hypothèse de l'associativité du comportement des matériaux. Or des instabilités et des bifurcations peuvent se développer à l'intérieur strict du critère limite de plasticité dans la mesure où le matériau est "non associé". Ainsi, de nouvelles approches sont nécessaires pour prendre en compte ces modes de rupture. Le but de ce travail est donc l'étude d'un indicateur de stabilité dans les ouvrages géotechniques. Ces travaux sont basés sur le critère de Hill, qui repose sur le signe du travail de second ordre à l'échelle locale et globale. Ainsi, nous montrons que cette condition permet d'analyser le comportement instable des matériaux granulaires. En effet, les principaux résultats de l'analyse détaillée des conditions d'instabilité pour le modèle élastoplastique de l'ECP, couramment connu comme modèle de Hujeux, ont mis en évidence un large domaine potentiellement instable et l'existence d'un seul cône de directions instables avant d'atteindre la condition limite de plasticité. De plus, l'introduction de ce modèle dans un code de calcul aux éléments finis GEFDYN (développé à l'Ecole Centrale Paris) a permis la modélisation des instabilités dans les essais biaxiaux et dans plusieurs configurations géotechniques. Cela a permis de dégager les différents mécanismes déclenchant l'instabilité. De plus, la capacité du travail de second ordre à être un indicateur de stabilité est testée. Enfin, l'incidence de l'eau et de son écoulement éventuel sur les critères de rupture est analysée
For a long time, problems of stability analysis have been studied in the framework of the classical theory of plasticity. These analyses are often based on the associative hypothesis of material behaviour. However, some instabilities and bifurcations can occur strictly inside of the plasticity criterion in so far as the material is non associated. Then, new approaches are necessary to take into account these failure modes. The aim of this work is thus to develop an indicator of stability for soils. It is shown that Hill's condition of stability (positiveness of the second order work) allows to exhibit the unstable behaviour of granular materials. Indeed, the results from the detailed analysis of the instability conditions for the ECP elastoplastic model, commonly known as the Hujeux model, highlighted a large domain potentially unstable and the existence of a cone of unstable directions before the limit plasticity condition. Moreover, the introduction of this model in a finite element software with coupled hydro-mechanical behaviour (GEFDYN, Ecole Centrale Paris) is described. The analysis of stability with this model is first applied to a biaxial test with plane strain conditions and then to geotechnical stability problems. This study allows to underline the various mechanisms initiating the instability. Moreover, the capacity of the second order work criterion to be an indicator of stability is tested. Finally, the incidence of water and its possible flow on the failure criteria is analyzed

Thesis (MTh)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Motivated by the observation that children living in the Western Cape face challenges relating to methamphetamine (tik) abuse, this research attempts to develop and propose a strategy that can be used in preventing mid-adolescents from engaging in tik use. To develop this strategy, a contextual analysis and hermeneutical process of the life of mid- adolescents and the environment in which tik abuse is occurring was initially undertaken. Through a contextual analysis of children living in Lavender Hill and surrounding areas, it was discovered that most children were attracted to tik due to the influence of modern technology, rampant poverty, the cheap cost of the drug, dysfunctionality of families, influence of gangs and lack of recreation facilities. Acknowledging that adolescence is an important stage in the formation of the character of any individual, this research attests that adolescents who use and abuse tik are those who do not have an enabling family and societal environment. It is suggested in this research that the Church can play a pivotal role in creating a socio-spiritual environment that would enable adolescents to develop themselves in such a manner that they do not need to use tik, or any other drug for that matter. This research thus develops a prevention strategy for dealing with tik abuse during mid- adolescence. This preventive strategy centres on the Church being of service to others. Based on a literature research conducted on the Lavender Hill community of the Cape Flats, this research proposes practical recommendations that could help different Christian churches in the fight against methamphetamine use by mid-adolescents. These recommendations attempt to involve different members of the community in the spirit that John Mbiti encapsulates in the proverb ―We are therefore I am‖. In this all- inclusive endeavour, this research supposes that if a community is properly functioning, it is possible for it to weed out unwanted elements in a manner that protects all its members, particularly the young.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie fokus op die vraagstuk van Metamfetamien-verslawing onder jeuggroepe binne die konteks van die Kaapse Vlakte met ‘n besondere fokus op die Lavender Hill- area. Daar is besluit om op middel-adolessensie te fokus omdat dit die fase is waarin jongmense uiters broos is en veral vatbaar is vir buite-invloede. Dit is ook die fase waarin vaste gedragspatrone binne identiteitsvorming vasgelê word. Die oogmerk was om veral op voorkomingstrategieë binne gemeentelike verband te fokus ten einde die pastorale bediening van die problematiek bewus te maak. Omdat verslawing ingebed is binne plaaslike kultuurkontekste, is besluit om aan te sluit by ‘n sosiaal-kontekstuele analise. Metamfetamien (of tik) raak betekenisraamwerke asook die mens se soeke na erkenning en aanvaarding. Vandaar die keuse vir ‘n kwalitatiewe benadering in aansuiting by ‘n pastoraal-hermeneutiese metodologie. Die sosiaal-kontekstuele analise in die Lavender Hill-area het aangetoon dat veral die sopsiale media en tegnologie ‘n groot rol speel in die gebruik van tik onder kinders. Binne ‘n armoedekultuur en die impak van gesinsverbrokkeling op jongmense se identiteitsontwikkeling, veral binne die bruingemeenskap, word ‘n teelaarde vir dwelmisbruik geskep. Tik is bekostigbaar en die situasie word deur bendes (gangsters) uitgebuit. Daar is ook bevind dat omgewingsfaktore ‘n bydraende rol speel, veral die gebrek aan doeltreffende ontspanningsgeriewe. As gevolg van die gebrek aan voldoende sosiale en familiale ondersteuningstrukture, word persoonslikheidsontwikkeling en karaktervorming hierdeur nadelig beïnvloed. Teen hierdie agtergrond stel die studie voor dat die kerk binne gemeenteverband as ‘n soort ‘familie‘ gestruktureer moet word. Die kerk is die skakel tussen die sosiale dimensie en spirituele raamwerke. Die gemeentelike bediening moet derhalwe by identiteitsontwikkeling betrokke wees ten einde voorkomend op te tree. Kerklike voorkomingstrategieë moet gekoppel wees aan die ekklesiale modus van diakonale uitreik ondanks religieuse and kulturele grense. In dié verband moet verskillende denomenasies hande vat en ook intensief saaamwerk met plaaslike gemeenskapsleiers. Dit is hier waar die Afrika-spiritualiteit , soos onder andere deur John Mbiti geformuleer, ‘n deurslaggewende rol kan speel, naamlik: ons bestaan vir mekaar, daarom leef ek as individu en bestaan ek as mens. Hierdeur word ‘n inklusiewe benadering geprofileer wat die gemeenskap inskakel ten einde die euwel van tik doeltreffend te bestry.

Au cours des dernières années, des changements importants dans le domaine des assurances et des finances attirent de plus en plus l’attention sur la nécessité d’élaborer un cadre normalisé pour la mesure des risques. Récemment, il y a eu un intérêt croissant de la part des experts en assurance sur l’utilisation de l’espérance conditionnelle des pertes (CTE) parce qu’elle partage des propriétés considérées comme souhaitables et applicables dans diverses situations. En particulier, il répond aux exigences d’une mesure de risque “cohérente”, selon Artzner [2]. Cette thèse représente des contributions à l’inférence statistique en développant des outils, basés sur la convergence des intégrales fonctionnelles, pour l’estimation de la CTE qui présentent un intérêt considérable pour la science actuarielle. Tout d’abord, nous développons un outil permettant l’estimation de la moyenne conditionnelle E[X|X > x], ensuite nous construisons des estimateurs de la CTE, développons la théorie asymptotique nécessaire pour ces estimateurs, puis utilisons la théorie pour construire des intervalles de confiance. Pour la première fois, l’approche de bootstrap non paramétrique est explorée dans cette thèse en développant des nouveaux résultats applicables à la valeur à risque (VaR) et à la CTE. Des études de simulation illustrent la performance de la technique de bootstrap.

In der Dissertation wird untersucht, ob die bereits eingetretenen Änderungen des Klimas und weiterer Standortsfaktoren im Erzgebirge und vorgelagertem Hügelland zu Verlagerungen der Verbreitungsschwerpunkte von Pflanzenarten in ihrer Höhenverbreitung geführt haben. Eine weitere Untersuchungsfrage ist die Begünstigung oder Gefährdung bestimmter Arten infolge der Standortsänderungen. Betrachtet werden 27 Pflanzenarten, sowohl Baum- und Straucharten als auch krautige Pflanzen. Zur Klärung der Fragen werden die Zeiträume 1946 – 1980 und 1981 – 2015 verglichen. Die Auswertung erfolgt auf der Basis von Messtischblatt-Viertelquadranten für die Standortsfaktoren mittlere Meereshöhe, Jahresmitteltemperatur, durchschnittlicher Jahresniederschlag sowie vorherrschender Bodentyp. In der Diskussion werden zusätzlich die Veränderungen in der Land-, Forst- und Jagdwirtschaft sowie die Wirkungen der Immissionsbelastungen und Bodenschutzkalkungen betrachtet. Schwerpunkte umfangreicher statistischer Auswertungen sind die Analyse der Verbreitung in den Untersuchungszeiträumen und die Ermittlung der Wahrscheinlichkeit von Artvorkommen. Eine gesonderte Fragestellung ist die genetische Untersuchung von Prunus padus. Dazu wurden Vorkommen im Tief-, Hügel- und Bergland ausgewählt. Der bisherige Anstieg der Jahresmitteltemperaturen hat nicht grundsätzlich zu einer Verschiebung der Verbreitungsschwerpunkte in höhere Gebirgslagen geführt. Die Pflanzenarten können hinsichtlich ihrer Verbreitung sowie im Vergleich der Untersuchungsperioden in Gruppen geordnet werden. Bei einigen Pflanzenarten, die in höhere Lagen des Untersuchungsgebietes vordringen, fällt eine enge Bindung der Vorkommenswahrscheinlichkeit an den Faktor Jahresmitteltemperatur auf. Andererseits werden bislang submontan bis montan verbreitete Arten nicht generell in die Hochlagen zurückgedrängt. Die Wirkungen der Klimaänderung können deshalb nicht losgelöst von anderen Faktoren beurteilt werden.

Ce travail, visant la complexite morphogenetique, historique et ecologique des forets hydromorphes developpees sur les limons des plateaux et terrasses du bas-dauphine, s'inscrit dans le cadre des etudes des relations vegetation - sol - milieu - fonctionnement. Le facteur temps (paleopedogeneses) et l'anthropisation (importance des taillis de chataignier) sont integres et hierarchises dans cette approche ecologique et fonctionnelle des ecosystemes forestiers. Les forets sur limons sont toutes developpees sur des sols de type pseudogley ou redoxisol, a caracteres morphologiques engendres par les processus d'hydromorphie : traces d'oxydo-reduction, concretions ferro-manganiques, glosses ou langues de degradation. Or la diversite floristique, traduisant des differences de fonctionnement des ecosystemes, s'oppose a cette homogeneite morphologique des profils. Suite a l'analyse phytoecologique des forets collineennes sur materiaux tertiaires et quaternaires du piemont des alpes septentrionales francaises, cinq stations hydromorphes sur limons sont mises en evidence (rattachees aux lonicero periclymeni-carpinenion betuli rameau 81 et aux quercenion robori-petraeae (br. -b1. 32) rivas-martinez 82), definies et determinees par le pedoclimat (regime hydrique) et l'acidite minerale. Le fonctionnement des forets hydromorphes est interprete par : - analyse et hierarchisation des facteurs du milieu en fonction de leur role sur le determinisme stationel : geomorphologie, topographie, microtopographie et diversite lithologiqaue (synthese des travaux de bornand (1978) sur les alterites des materiaux fluvio-glaciaires et molassiques - etude physico-chimique et micromorphologique de coupes de limons polyphases), - caracterisation phytoecologique et pedologique des stations. La pedogenese actuelle et le fonctionnement hydrodynamique des sols, masques par l'heritage de paleopedogeneses, sont abordes a l'aide d'indices granulometriques et cristallochimiques (distribution des formes du fer, type et evolution des mineraux argileux). Les divergences morphologie/pedogenese, donc les differences pedoclimatiques des stations forestieres, sont verifiees par l'analyse comparee de profils de porosites : l'hydromorphie est, soit de surface (pedoclimat contraste - pseudogley), soit profonde ou fossile (pedoclimat non contraste - sol lessive a pseudogley ou sol brun).

Despite the fact that conservation ideology has led conservation practice over the last quarter of a century, the removal of local residents from protected areas in the name of biological preservation remains the most common strategy in developing countries. Its wide-ranging impacts on displaced societies have rarely been properly addressed, particularly in regard to the establishment of parks. This thesis is based on 15 months fieldwork carried out among a group of displaced park residents known as Rana Tharus in the country of Nepal. They have long lived in Royal Shuklaphanta Wildlife Reserve in the far-western part of that nation. This thesis is largely inspired by recent academic advocacy that conservation-induced dislocations on rural communities are having a serious influence on policy implementation. Such advocacy is leading to more effective and pragmatic park policies. West, Igoe and Brockington (2006) point out that park residents are an indispensable part of protected areas and their cultural and economic interactions with parks occur in diverse ways. Without a full understanding of these interrelationships, any kind of forced conservation policies will be doomed to fail and cause severe disturbances to people’s lives. Like most protected areas in developing countries, this thesis shows that the unplanned resettlement scheme of Shulkaphanta failed to mitigate the socio-economic losses that Rana Tharus experienced due to their displacement. The ethnographic data notes that when attention is paid solely to the economic losses experienced by Rana Tharus, the social costs such as social exclusion, loss of culture, and psychological depression are rarely addressed in the dislocation program. An inadequate understanding of the links between protected areas and local livelihoods is one of the major causes for the continuation of park-people conflicts including Shuklaphanta. In this thesis, I demonstrate how the displacement and other social changes have gradually diminished the social and economic livelihoods of the Rana people. I argue that many of these social impacts were unexpected because Rana Tharus actively responded to all these changes by putting new social relations into effect. As a result, significant social transformations have occurred in contemporary Rana Tharu society. The undivided household unit was no longer their first preference when the new economic realities made themselves felt, and gender and patrilineal kin relationships became more tense. The traditional labouring system (Kamaiya) that existed between wealthy and poor Rana Tharus declined due to increasing poverty. All these had erased their ability to maintain sustainable livelihoods that they had previously enjoyed. Moreover, substantial loss of landownership had made it impossible for Rana Tharus to share equal social, economic and political status with the new migrants - the twice-born Pahaaris. These accumulated and unforseen results of conservation practices can only be well understood if a holistic analytical perspective is adopted. This thesis borrows the concept of sustainable household livelihood system and the social theories of practice, power and agency to explore the dynamic relationships between conservation, local livelihoods and culture. The stories told by the Rana Tharu provide some important lessons. I argue that dislocation programs should be put aside or at least closely reviewed if their hidden social impacts are not well understood or at least lead to some form of compensation. Such action may prevent the further expansion of park-people conflicts which are shown to hinder conservation efforts of Shuklaphanta and local sustainable livelihoods.
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Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Adelaide, School of Social Sciences, 2009

Blandness and paranoia in the architecture of the domestic realm has, to a great degree, been influenced by the current mode of information--the act of viewing this information, its pacing, and its rhythm. Reality is perceived in the information realm, while the experiential, physical "world of things" is unreal. We live in a commodified environment of projections from passively received information. The project is situated in the suburban condition of Daly City, California, and it is this model of society which is economic and information based that demands consideration. The articulation of the spaces in the Daly City dwelling project attempts to project an image of suburban patterns which have been reconfigured by forces of topography, perception and the physical body, information, and the automobile. What was once responsive to a narrow range of forces has become intertwined and "flowing" with a kind of momentum in the architectural elements which make the dwelling experience.

The Charley farmstead in Harrison County, Indiana represents a significant archaeological resource within a region that has been largely neglected by historians and historical archaeologists alike. The farm was settled by George Charley, a Revolutionary War veteran from Virginia, in 1810, and was continuously occupied for two centuries. This study presents the results of an archaeological investigation at the site that included primary document research, mapping of the architectural landscape, a soil resistance survey, subsurface testing, and the analysis of historic materials. The data collected was used to interpret the material and economic conditions experienced at the site during the nineteenth century. From this data it appears that the Charley farmstead was a diverse and successful agricultural operation that began as a subsistence-level corn and swine farm, adopted market-dependent surplus agriculture by the mid-nineteenth century, and followed general trends towards increased market-dependence and consumerism into the twentieth century.
Department of Anthropology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2009.
Title from title screen (site viewed July 21, 2009). PDF text: ix, 121 p. : ill., maps ; 6 Mb. UMI publication number: AAT 3352250. Includes bibliographical references. Also available in microfilm and microfiche formats.

In der Dissertation wird untersucht, ob die bereits eingetretenen Änderungen des Klimas und weiterer Standortsfaktoren im Erzgebirge und vorgelagertem Hügelland zu Verlagerungen der Verbreitungsschwerpunkte von Pflanzenarten in ihrer Höhenverbreitung geführt haben. Eine weitere Untersuchungsfrage ist die Begünstigung oder Gefährdung bestimmter Arten infolge der Standortsänderungen. Betrachtet werden 27 Pflanzenarten, sowohl Baum- und Straucharten als auch krautige Pflanzen. Zur Klärung der Fragen werden die Zeiträume 1946 – 1980 und 1981 – 2015 verglichen. Die Auswertung erfolgt auf der Basis von Messtischblatt-Viertelquadranten für die Standortsfaktoren mittlere Meereshöhe, Jahresmitteltemperatur, durchschnittlicher Jahresniederschlag sowie vorherrschender Bodentyp. In der Diskussion werden zusätzlich die Veränderungen in der Land-, Forst- und Jagdwirtschaft sowie die Wirkungen der Immissionsbelastungen und Bodenschutzkalkungen betrachtet. Schwerpunkte umfangreicher statistischer Auswertungen sind die Analyse der Verbreitung in den Untersuchungszeiträumen und die Ermittlung der Wahrscheinlichkeit von Artvorkommen. Eine gesonderte Fragestellung ist die genetische Untersuchung von Prunus padus. Dazu wurden Vorkommen im Tief-, Hügel- und Bergland ausgewählt. Der bisherige Anstieg der Jahresmitteltemperaturen hat nicht grundsätzlich zu einer Verschiebung der Verbreitungsschwerpunkte in höhere Gebirgslagen geführt. Die Pflanzenarten können hinsichtlich ihrer Verbreitung sowie im Vergleich der Untersuchungsperioden in Gruppen geordnet werden. Bei einigen Pflanzenarten, die in höhere Lagen des Untersuchungsgebietes vordringen, fällt eine enge Bindung der Vorkommenswahrscheinlichkeit an den Faktor Jahresmitteltemperatur auf. Andererseits werden bislang submontan bis montan verbreitete Arten nicht generell in die Hochlagen zurückgedrängt. Die Wirkungen der Klimaänderung können deshalb nicht losgelöst von anderen Faktoren beurteilt werden.