Academic literature on the topic 'Historical novel'

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Journal articles on the topic "Historical novel"

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Dawson, Christopher. "The Historical Novel." Chesterton Review 49, no. 3 (2023): 353–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/chesterton2023493/460.

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G, Nirmaladevi. "Transit in Kalki Historical Novels." International Research Journal of Tamil 3, S-1 (June 25, 2021): 279–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.34256/irjt21s145.

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The novel is one of the brand new arts acquired by Tamils ​​due to European contact and learning English. In storytelling for Tamils ​​since ancient times; there is involvement. However, the literary form of the novel became known to the people only after learning English novels. As a result, AD.Novels may have appeared in Tamil in the late nineteenth century. By the time the first novel appeared in Tamil, Tamils ​​were well versed in education. So the number of scholars was increasing. Tamils ​​learned to speak English along with Tamil. It is easy for people to move from one place to another due to the convenience of the train. A number of printing presses appeared and printed texts. Thus diminishing the influence of poetry influence of prose grew. These were the reasons for the origin of the Tamil novel and its subsequent development. The novels thus multiplied into science fiction, science fiction, enlightenment novel, Gandhian novel, Marxist novel, social novels, social novels, and historical novels. The purpose of this article is to examine the nature of historical novels and Kalki's contribution to them.
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Jafarov, Javidan. "Historical novel: artistic review of historical truth." Filologiya məsələləri Journal of Philological Issues, no. 3 (2024): 419. http://dx.doi.org/10.62837/2024.3.419.

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Garrido Ardila, Juan Antonio. "Novel and historical consciusness." Estudios Humanísticos. Filología, no. 22 (December 15, 2000): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.18002/ehf.v0i22.3977.

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Heller, Agnes. "The contemporary historical novel." Thesis Eleven 106, no. 1 (August 2011): 88–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0725513611407448.

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Smetana, Vít. "Almost a Historical Novel." Soudobé dějiny 22, no. 3-4 (September 1, 2015): 524–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.51134/sod.2015.026.

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Byounggill Kim. "A Study on the Articulation between Historical Biography Novel and Modern Historical Novel." Studies in Korean Literature ll, no. 40 (June 2011): 155–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.20881/skl.2011..40.005.

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Calciu, Rodica. "An Historical Novel or a Historical Novel? A Case of Variation in Spelling." ELOPE: English Language Overseas Perspectives and Enquiries 2, no. 1-2 (June 22, 2005): 11–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/elope.2.1-2.11-24.

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The form of the indefinite article before h is not an easy matter, as mentioned among others, by Jespersen, in A Modern English Grammar. The existence today of written corpora and other online resources allows for a wider and, hopefully, a more reliable examination of variants. The present paper presents the results obtained from an analysis of the forms of the indefinite article before words beginning with h found in the Gutenberg corpus, therefore, in literature, and in The British National Corpus (BNC). Quantitative data are presented and accounted for in a synchronic and diachronic perspective.
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Kamisheva, G. A., and Sh U. Baimakhanova. "Ideological-artistic features of the novel of Najib Makhfuz "Children of our street" ("اولاد حارتنا")." BULLETIN OF THE L.N. GUMILYOV EURASIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. POLITICAL SCIENCE. REGIONAL STUDIES. ORIENTAL STUDIES. TURKOLOGY SERIES 148, no. 3 (2024): 207–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32523/2616-6887/2024-148-3-207-225.

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During his creative life, N. Mahfuz wrote more than thirty novels, among which the highest is the historical novel "Children of Our Street" (حارتنا اولاد) Modern Arabic literature is distinguished by a variety and abundance of works of a historical nature. The historical novel did not appear suddenly in Arabic literature, it is closely related to popular "folk novels" in the Middle Ages. The work we analyze clearly shows elements of historical presentation, describes the traditions of the east, and also shows a connection with certain historical figures and events. The novel tells the story of the development of all mankind based on the fate of the five main characters. In the work, the study of history is carried out by artistic means that allow you to compare distant eras, reflecting on the general issues of the development of civilization and human nature. The article talks about the work of the Nobel Prize winner, the emir of the Arab novel not only Egypt, but also the Arab Mia in general Najib Mahfuz and made a literary and theoretical analysis of his novel "Children of Our Street". And also analyze the style of the novel, the means of expressiveness and its plot, composition, theme and idea.
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Kong, Imsoon. "(Daeha)Historical Novel Toji and Historical Individuals’ Gender Dynamics." Journal of Asian Women 57, no. 2 (November 30, 2018): 7–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.14431/jaw.2018.11.57.2.7.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Historical novel"

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Thompson, Hannah. "Approaches to history and the historical individual in the Victorian historical novel." Thesis, University of Reading, 2014. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.628536.

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This thesis is concerned with the influence that certain forms of history writing in the nineteenth century had upon the process of capturing past experience as history through narrative. The thesis adopts a constructivist approach, investigating the ways that humans generate knowledge and meaning from their experiences and ideas. Working on the premise that the observation of the past is an active, constructive process of understanding, this study explores the development of the historical novel as a model of historical experience and knowledge. Chapter one presents an overview of nineteenth-century historiography to highlight the context in which the discipline of history adopted elements of empirical data analysis, and the influence these practices had upon the development of realism in the novel. The reasons behind the interest in history in the nineteenth century are explored, as are the rise of the historical novel and popular history writing that accompanied it. Chapter two examines Thackeray's treatment of grand narrative, exemplified in Thomas Macaulay's History of England, and centres on Thackeray's fictional memoir, The History of Henry Esmond. The chapter references Carlyle's work on the heroic, using Henry Esmond's position as historical participant and self-fashioned author to investigate the staging of history through narrative. Chapters three and four examine George Eliot's historical works, Romola and Middlemarch, in the context of Eliot's formulation of the historic imagination, and its effect upon the representation of history in her work. Romola and Middlemarch select hidden forms of historical narrative and develop different techniques of observation to relay a distinct view of the past through its representation. Romola perceives historic events from the position of the domestic, female central character, while Middlemarch studies the significance of un-historic acts through the un-historic narrative of Dorothea. Both texts draw upon Thomas Carlyle's essays on history and Past and Present to develop a view of history influenced by the processes used to describe its reanimation. Chapter five investigates Thomas Hardy's The Trumpet-Major, exploring the relevance of Hardy's selection of a historically 'insignificant' event for the subject of his novel. Carlyle's vision of world history is contrasted with Hardy's transformation of history into direct experience in the novel, and the chapter explores the implications that this idea of history has upon the construction of reality portrayed in his novels.
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Hampe, Martínez Teodoro. "Seymour Menton, Latin America's New Historical Novel." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/101403.

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Drake, George A. "Historical space in the eighteenth-century novel /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9425.

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MacLeod, Mhairead Ellen. "Abduction : the writing of a historical novel." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2011. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/47637/1/Mhairead_MacLeod_Thesis.pdf.

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This is a practice-led project consisting of a historical novel Abduction and related exegesis. The novel is a third person intimate narrative set in the mid-nineteenth century and is based on actual events and persons caught up in, or furthering, the mass dispossession of small farmers in Scotland known as the ‘Clearances’. The narrative focuses on the situation in the Outer Hebrides and northern Scotland. It is based on documented facts leading up to a controversial trial in 1850 that arose because a twenty year old woman of the period (the central protagonist, Jess Mackenzie) eloped with a young farmer to escape her parent’s pressure to marry a rival suitor, himself a powerful lawyer and ‘factor’ at the centre of many of the Clearances. The young woman’s independent ideas were ahead of her time, and the decisions she made under great pressure were crucial in some dramatic events that unfolded in Scotland and later in the colony of Victoria, to which she and her new husband emigrated soon after the trial. The exegesis is composed of two unequal parts. It briefly considers the development of the literary historical fiction genre in the nineteenth century with Walter Scott in particular, a genre found useful in representing women’s issues of the Victorian era by Victorian and contemporary authors. The exegesis also briefly considers the appropriateness of the fiction genre (as opposed to creative nonfiction) in creating the lived experience in a fact-based work. The major part of the exegesis is a detailed, reflective analysis of the problem-solving process involved in writing the novel, structured by reference to Kate Grenville’s Searching for the Secret River – a work of metawriting that explains her creative process in researching and writing historical fiction based on fact.
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Walker, Stanwood Sterling. "The classical-historical novel in nineteenth-century Britain." Access restricted to users with UT Austin EID, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3036607.

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Amand, Emilie. "Le roman de la contre histoire : entre contestation et tradition." Thesis, Lille 3, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIL3H051/document.

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Cette thèse se propose de travailler à la définition d'un sous-genre du roman historique en expansion : le roman de la contre histoire, aussi appelé roman historique subversif. Les œuvres choisies permettent une analyse diachronique du problème, en commençant par la naissance du roman historique et allant jusqu'à nos jours. Pour cela, nous aborderons les œuvres de Scott, Hampâté Bâ, Roa Bastos, et Chamoiseau, s'attachant ainsi à différents continents et cultures, avec l'Europe, l'Afrique, mais également l'Amérique Centrale et l’Amérique du Sud. Pour cette recherche, il est nécessaire d'étudier le contexte de naissance de ces romans, ainsi que les moyens mis en place à l'écriture de cette histoire autre. Nous en viendrons à travailler sur le glissement de l'écriture de l'Histoire à celle d'une identité, ce qui nous poussera à nous interroger sur la place de la littérature dans la constitution de l'identité nationale. Nous ferons ici face à des controverses, étant donné que les romans vont partiellement à l'encontre des Histoires officielles, ce qui permettra de voir l'importance que peut avoir le point de vue autre dans la construction identitaire. La présence des contes et du folklore, sera étudiée afin de déterminer leur rôle dans la création de l'identité. Une étude de la réception de ces œuvres sera menée afin de voir l'impact concret de ces textes sur la construction identitaire. Ceci permettra donc d'avoir une vision totale de ce sous-genre en plein essor, et de voir son réel impact, amenant à une réflexion sur la place de la littérature dans la société actuelle ainsi que sur son rapport à l'histoire
This thesis proposes to work on the definition of a sub-genre of the expanding historical novel: the novel of the counter-history, also called subversive historical novel. The selected works allow a diachronic analysis of the problem, starting with the birth of the historical novel and going until our days. For this, we will cover the works of Scott, Hampâté Bâ, Roa Bastos, and Chamoiseau, thus focusing on different continents and cultures, with Europe, Africa, but also Central America and South America . For For this research, it is necessary to study the birth context of these novels, as well as the means put in place to write this other story. We will come to work on the shift from the writing of history to that of an identity, which will push us to question the place of literature in the constitution of national identity. We will face controversy here, since the novels go partially against the official histories, which will allow to see the importance that the other point of view can have in the construction of identity. The presence of tales and folklore will be studied to determine their role in the creation of identity. A study of the reception of these works will be conducted to see the concrete impact of these texts on the construction of identity. This will allow us to have a total vision of this sub-genre booming, and see its real impact, leading to a reflection on the place of literature in today's society and its relationship to history
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Frisk, Angelica. "Medeltiden i din hand : En studie om skönlitteraturens möjlighet i historieundervisningen." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Akademin för lärande, humaniora och samhälle, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-36734.

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This study aims to investigate a historical novel and its reliability. By way of investigating gender and power with three of the characters the study resulted in normative behaviour among the investigated characters and a violent use of power significant for its time. The result of the study shows that there is high reliability in the novel in the aspects of gender and power.
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Martin, Patricia L. "Minority protagonists in the young adult historical fiction novel." [Denver, Colo.] : Regis University, 2007. http://165.236.235.140/lib/PMartin2007.pdf.

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Dodwell-Groves, Laura. "The seventh bulb : a middle grade historical fiction novel." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/31562.

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In this work of historical fiction, a twelve-year-old girl called Emmetje journeys from the streets of Constantinople to the decks of a smuggling boat and on to the back streets and canals of 17t h century Amsterdam. In her pocket she carries the bulb of a unique blue tulip, and in her hand is a strange treasure map that uncovers the heart of a nation's strange obsession. Emmetje's mother had drawn tulips. Hovering beside the elegant petals she drew butterflies, and on their wings she drew her map. Compelled by curiosity and an adventurous spirit, Emme sets out to discover where her mother's map might lead. Her journey is shared by her three-legged tabby cat and a cabin boy called Sander. Emmetje's journey inevitably becomes one of self-discovery where fathers, mothers and horticulture all play their part. The blue tulip bulb is the silent hero, but the not so silent metaphor for Emmetje's identity. Precious, protected, rich with potential and waiting to bloom.
Arts, Faculty of
Library, Archival and Information Studies (SLAIS), School of
Graduate
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Carroll, Richard J. "Re-presenting the past : authenticity and the historical novel." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/68033/1/Richard_Carroll_Thesis.pdf.

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This project involved writing Turrwan (great man), a novel set in Queensland in the nineteenth century, and an investigation into the way historical novels portray the past. Turrwan tells the story of Tom Petrie, who was six when he arrived with his family at the notorious Moreton Bay Penal Colony in 1837. The thesis examines historical fiction as a genre with particular focus on notions of historical authenticity. It analyses the complexities involved in a non-Indigenous person writing about the Australian Aboriginal people, and reflects on the process of researching, planning and writing a historical novel.
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Books on the topic "Historical novel"

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Groot, Jerome De. The historical novel. New York: Routledge, 2009.

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Kinsey, Kathryne Ann. Edelweiss: An historical novel. Chapel Hill, NC: Chapel Hill Press, 2002.

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Dalley, Hamish. The Postcolonial Historical Novel. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137450098.

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Wallace, Diana. The Woman's Historical Novel. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940.

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Jafa, Jyoti. Nurjahan: A historical novel. New Delhi: Roli Books, 1996.

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Mātavaiyā, A. Clarinda, a historical novel. 2nd ed. Tirunelveli, India: Nanbar Vattam, 1992.

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Mireles, Jovita González. Caballero: A historical novel. College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 1996.

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Madhaviah, A. Clarinda, a historical novel. 2nd ed. Tirunelveli, India: Nanbar Vattam, 1992.

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Prevost, Bob. Mallast: A historical novel. Harrison Township, MI: RLP Industries, 2012.

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Dhumketu. Smarat chandragupt (Historical novel). Delhi: [s.n.], 2001.

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Book chapters on the topic "Historical novel"

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Marinho, Maria de Fátima. "The historical novel." In Comparative History of Literatures in European Languages, 206–16. Amsterdam: John Benjamins Publishing Company, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/chlel.xxix.19mar.

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Robbins, Janice I. "The Historical Novel." In Advanced Reading Instruction in Middle School, 119–27. New York: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003232902-8.

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Bowen, John. "The Historical Novel." In A Companion to the Victorian Novel, 245–59. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9780470996324.ch15.

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Bernauer, Markus. "Historical novel and historical Romance." In Comparative History of Literatures in European Languages, 296–324. Amsterdam: John Benjamins Publishing Company, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/chlel.xxiii.21ber.

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Wallace, Diana. "The Woman’s Historical Novel." In The History of British Women’s Writing, 1920–1945, 129–43. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292179_8.

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Wallace, Diana. "Introduction." In The Woman's Historical Novel, 1–24. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940_1.

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Wallace, Diana. "Postscript." In The Woman's Historical Novel, 227–28. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940_10.

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Wallace, Diana. "Entering into History: The Woman Citizen and the Historical Novel, 1900–1929." In The Woman's Historical Novel, 25–52. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940_2.

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Wallace, Diana. "Histories of the Defeated: Writers Taking Sides in the 1930s." In The Woman's Historical Novel, 53–77. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940_3.

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Wallace, Diana. "Writing the War and After: Wicked Ladies and Wayward Women in the 1940s." In The Woman's Historical Novel, 78–100. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230505940_4.

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Conference papers on the topic "Historical novel"

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Musil, Jan, and Martin Zatloukal. "Historical notes on flow visualization in polymer melt processing." In NOVEL TRENDS IN RHEOLOGY VIII. Author(s), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5109496.

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Musil, Jan, and Martin Zatloukal. "Historical review of die drool phenomenon during plastics extrusion." In NOVEL TRENDS IN RHEOLOGY V. AIP, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4802600.

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Amr, Mohamed, Mohamed Ezzat, and Sally Kassem. "Logistics 4.0: Definition and Historical Background." In 2019 Novel Intelligent and Leading Emerging Sciences Conference (NILES). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/niles.2019.8909314.

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Egorova, Ol�ga. "GENRE AND STYLISTIC SPECIFICS OF HISTORICAL NOVEL." In 6th SWS International Scientific Conference on Arts and Humanities ISCAH 2019. STEF92 Technology, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sws.iscah.2019.1/s27.062.

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Alvarez, Ángel Martín Fernández, Alexandre Mayer, and Olivier Deparis. "Light Scattering Spectroscopy Combined with Principal Component Analysis for Animal Species Identification in Historical Parchments." In Novel Optical Materials and Applications. Washington, D.C.: OSA, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/noma.2019.not2b.4.

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DeLozier, Grant, Ben Wing, Jason Baldridge, and Scott Nesbit. "Creating a Novel Geolocation Corpus from Historical Texts." In Proceedings of the 10th Linguistic Annotation Workshop held in conjunction with ACL 2016 (LAW-X 2016). Stroudsburg, PA, USA: Association for Computational Linguistics, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/w16-1721.

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Quraishi, Md Iqbal, M. De, K. G. Dhal, S. Mondal, and G. Das. "A novel hybrid approach to restore historical degraded documents." In 2013 International Conference on Intelligent Systems and Signal Processing (ISSP). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/issp.2013.6526899.

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Chen, Michael Z., Akindu Dasanayake, Rohan Deb, Varun Deb, and Evan Zhao. "Aerogel Composites: Historical and Novel Synthesis Methods and Applications." In 2020 IEEE Integrated STEM Education Conference (ISEC). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isec49744.2020.9397823.

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Baloun, Josef, Pavel Král, and Ladislav Lenc. "ChronSeg: Novel Dataset for Segmentation of Handwritten Historical Chronicles." In 13th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0010317203140322.

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Wasilewski, K., and A. Zbiciak. "Novel Constitutive Modelling Approach for Shape Memory Alloys Vibration Control Devices." In 12th International Conference on Structural Analysis of Historical Constructions. CIMNE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23967/sahc.2021.169.

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Reports on the topic "Historical novel"

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Flandreau, Marc. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp186.

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Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
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Beckman, Jayson, and Thomas Hertel. Validating Energy-Oriented CGE Models. GTAP Working Paper, February 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/gtap.wp54.

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Although CGE models have received heavy usage, they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated. Key parameters are often not econometrically estimated, and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes. As a consequence, questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in CGE results. In this paper, we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global CGE model – GTAP-E. By comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions -- driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model-- with observed five-year moving average price distributions, we conclude that energy demand in GTAP-E is far too price-elastic over this time frame. After incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities, we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily. As a further check, we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation, based on historical realizations over the 2001-2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply, along with growing global energy demands. As anticipated by the stochastic simulations, the revised model parameters perform much better than the original GTAP-E parameters in this global, general equilibrium context.
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Andresen, Jens-Bjørn R., and Søren M. Kristiansen. Historic maps as source for hydrological reconstruction of pre-industrial landscape wetness in Denmark: a methodological study. Det Kgl. Bibliotek, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.7146/aul.491.

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Historic maps are an important primary source which can be utilized in the reconstruction of environmental variables of the pre-industrial landscape. However, methodological constraints have hitherto prevented large scale and systematic approaches. In this paper a novel methodology is presented, which documents the usefulness of the maps in the study of paleo-hydrology and thus serves a better understanding of the conditions for agricultural production under pre-drainage conditions. The methodology is developed based on eighteenth and nineteenth century maps from a 100 km2 study area in one stream catchment in East Jutland, Denmark. It combines information from two types of historic maps in order to correlate computed soil hydrology (wetness index) and recorded historic land-use. The calculated wetness indexes are derived from contour lines on topographic (military) maps (in Danish: Høje Maalebordsblade), whereas the spatial overlays are land-use classes from economic maps (in Danish: Matrikelkort - Original 1). This study demonstrates – for the first time - that the wetness index is explanatory for the agricultural suitable/non-suitable dichotomy (tilled land versus “wetland”: meadows, fens, and peat bogs) on the historic economic maps. Furthermore, the study shows that pre-industrial arable areas were stretched to their limits in respect to cropping wet soils in this agricultural dominated landscape. The study confirms the existing belief that the historic economic maps constitute the best available source of these mosaic-landscapes for periods before the intense subsurface tile drainage began. This finding opens for further methodological development and up-scaling using automatic feature detection, contour line extraction and text recognition of historical maps.
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4

Clark, Todd E., Gergely Ganics, and Elmar Mertens. What is the predictive value of SPF point and density forecasts? Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202237.

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This paper presents a new approach to combining the information in point and density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and assesses the incremental value of the density forecasts. Our starting point is a model, developed in companion work, that constructs quarterly term structures of expectations and uncertainty from SPF point forecasts for quarterly fixed horizons and annual fixed events. We then employ entropic tilting to bring the density forecast information contained in the SPF’s probability bins to bear on the model estimates. In a novel application of entropic tilting, we let the resulting predictive densities exactly replicate the SPF’s probability bins. Our empirical analysis of SPF forecasts of GDP growth and inflation shows that tilting to the SPF’s probability bins can visibly affect our model-based predictive distributions. Yet in historical evaluations, tilting does not offer consistent benefits to forecast accuracy relative to the model-based densities that are centered on the SPF’s point forecasts and reflect the historical behavior of SPF forecast errors. That said, there can be periods in which tilting to the bin information helps forecast accuracy. Replication files are available at https://github.com/elmarmertens/ClarkGanicsMertensSPFfancharts
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5

Liguori, Giovanni, and Nadia Pinardi. Evaluation of Extreme Forecast Indices (WP5+6). EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d4.11.

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While originally developed for weather forecasting, the Extreme Forecast index (EFI) concept has found utility in diverse fields. This study marks the inaugural application of EFI principles to numerical ocean forecasting. EFI offers a metric to gauge the forecast's deviation from historical norms specific to the location and time of year. A heightened EFI value signifies that the forecast falls beyond the usual range of variability, signifying a higher probability of extreme conditions. This novel use of EFI stands to benefit oceanographers by identifying significant oceanic events, aiding decision-making, and supporting early warning systems, particularly for extreme marine conditions. It enhances comprehension of forecast uncertainties and facilitates clearer communication of potential risks to the public and stakeholders. Such insights are invaluable for preparedness, coastal management, and mitigating the impact of marine extremes on communities and ecosystems. EFI indices for the Mediterranean Sea are computed using a first implementation of a forecast ensemble system that is being developed for the Mediterranean Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service. This deliverable report presents the first-ever application of the EFI approach to the Mediterranean Sea. After presenting the EFI definition adopted in this study, we discuss its application to sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) extremes. A case studies using ensemble forecasts for the year 2021 are presented and discussed. (EuroSea Deliverable, D4.11)
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6

Morieson, Nicholas, Ihsan Yilmaz, and Bulent Kenes. From National to Manufactured: The Evolution of the AKP’s Victimhood Narratives. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), September 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55271/pp0040.

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This paper explores the dynamic interplay of victimhood narratives, populism, and civilizational rhetoric in Turkish Islamist politics, centering on the tenure of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Tracing the historical trajectory of Islamist victimhood and its evolution, the study reveals how the AKP strategically fused domestic victimhood politics with Islamist civilizational populism. These narrative positions the AKP as the advocate for the victimized Sunni Muslim Turkish nation against a perceived pro-Western, secular, and corrupt elite. This narrative extends beyond the national level, portraying the AKP as the defender of the Muslim ummah against alleged Western conspiracies. Challenging existing literature that characterizes the AKP’s current victimhood discourse as a mere continuation of its Turkish Islamist victimhood narrative, this paper argues for its significant evolution. It introduces two additional layers constituting a ‘new’ victimhood: 1) a national victimhood discourse and 2) manufactured victimhood. In the post-Gezi Protests era, the AKP not only revisits its Islamist victimhood mindset, inclusive of anti-Western conspiracies, but also adopts a nationalist victimhood discourse through a mimetic process, seamlessly integrating it with its existing Turkish Islamist victimhood narrative. Furthermore, with the AKP’s rise to hegemonic status, the party strategically manufactures a novel victimhood narrative, rooted in conspiracy theories alleging Western opposition to the leader of the Muslim World, Turkey. This narrative strategy enables the AKP to deflect criticism, legitimize crackdowns, and solidify its grip on power. By unpacking these layers of victimhood, this paper provides a nuanced understanding of the AKP’s evolving narrative strategy and its implications for the political landscape in Turkey.
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7

Stampini, Marco, Pablo Ibarrarán, Carolina Rivas, and Marcos Robles. Adaptive, but not by design: cash transfers in Latin America and the Caribbean before, during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic. Inter-American Development Bank, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003795.

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The socioeconomic crisis associated with the pandemic put cash transfer programs back at the top of the policy agenda. It showed that the Latin American and Caribbean regions income support systems were both fundamental and insufficient. In this paper, we present novel estimates of the coverage and beneficiary distribution of all non-contributory cash transfers both before and during the COVID-19 crisis. The former is useful to show the degree of preparedness of the region. The latter analyzes the magnitude of the policy response. While the literature presents estimates of coverage and leakage of conditional cash transfers and non-contributory pensions, our results are novel because they are the first to analyze coverage and leakage implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, we are the first to expand the focus to all non-contributory cash transfer programs, including those that are quasi-universal and/or unconditional. This is the most appropriate focus when the goal is to assess the ability to provide protection to larger population groups (including the vulnerable) and against transitory poverty caused by systemic shocks (such as pandemic or extreme weather events, which may become more and more frequent due to climate change). Using data from the Inter-American Development Bank “Harmonized Household Surveys from Latin America and the Caribbean”, which now provide a more comprehensive coverage of Caribbean countries, we show that before the pandemic non-contributory cash transfers covered 26% of the population of 17 countries with available data. Average coverage of the extreme poor, moderate poor and vulnerable population was 56%, 43% and 28% respectively. During the crisis, LAC governments implemented 111 new cash transfer interventions, increasing coverage to 34% of the population in 12 countries with available data. Average coverage increased among the moderate poor (50%) and vulnerable population (37%), while it remained unvaried amongst the extreme poor. Moving forward, the countries of the region are called to reform their social protection systems to make them more flexible, efficient, and sustainable, and including strategies that provide protection against shocks. In this way, resilient and responsive social protection systems can contribute to the fight against climate change and support a just transition towards net-zero emission societies. These efforts must also include measures to close the historical coverage gap amongst the poorest.
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Ashton, Isabel, and Katie Terlizzi,. Enhancing 90-years of forest monitoring at Black Rock Forest: Final Report to the Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative. Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative, October 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18125/8z50y5.

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Black Rock Forest manages over 90 years of monitoring data on a 1586-hectare forest in New York. While local in geographic scope, the length and breadth of record is unique and may provide a valuable resource to better understand, manage, and protect northeastern forested ecosystems in a changing world. We requested funds to maintain long-term plot infrastructure, digitize historic records, and upgrade existing monitoring programs to better manage, share, and synthesize these novel data sets. We hired a research technician who digitized historic data, maps, and supported ongoing forest monitoring. We also began the process of standardizing and expanding our forest monitoring program. Numerous datasets were made publicly available through FEMC data archive and the Environmental Data Initiative.
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9

Daudelin, Francois, Lina Taing, Lucy Chen, Claudia Abreu Lopes, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, and Hamid Mehmood. Mapping WASH-related disease risk: A review of risk concepts and methods. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.53328/uxuo4751.

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The report provides a review of how risk is conceived of, modelled, and mapped in studies of infectious water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) related diseases. It focuses on spatial epidemiology of cholera, malaria and dengue to offer recommendations for the field of WASH-related disease risk mapping. The report notes a lack of consensus on the definition of disease risk in the literature, which limits the interpretability of the resulting analyses and could affect the quality of the design and direction of public health interventions. In addition, existing risk frameworks that consider disease incidence separately from community vulnerability have conceptual overlap in their components and conflate the probability and severity of disease risk into a single component. The report identifies four methods used to develop risk maps, i) observational, ii) index-based, iii) associative modelling and iv) mechanistic modelling. Observational methods are limited by a lack of historical data sets and their assumption that historical outcomes are representative of current and future risks. The more general index-based methods offer a highly flexible approach based on observed and modelled risks and can be used for partially qualitative or difficult-to-measure indicators, such as socioeconomic vulnerability. For multidimensional risk measures, indices representing different dimensions can be aggregated to form a composite index or be considered jointly without aggregation. The latter approach can distinguish between different types of disease risk such as outbreaks of high frequency/low intensity and low frequency/high intensity. Associative models, including machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), are commonly used to measure current risk, future risk (short-term for early warning systems) or risk in areas with low data availability, but concerns about bias, privacy, trust, and accountability in algorithms can limit their application. In addition, they typically do not account for gender and demographic variables that allow risk analyses for different vulnerable groups. As an alternative, mechanistic models can be used for similar purposes as well as to create spatial measures of disease transmission efficiency or to model risk outcomes from hypothetical scenarios. Mechanistic models, however, are limited by their inability to capture locally specific transmission dynamics. The report recommends that future WASH-related disease risk mapping research: - Conceptualise risk as a function of the probability and severity of a disease risk event. Probability and severity can be disaggregated into sub-components. For outbreak-prone diseases, probability can be represented by a likelihood component while severity can be disaggregated into transmission and sensitivity sub-components, where sensitivity represents factors affecting health and socioeconomic outcomes of infection. -Employ jointly considered unaggregated indices to map multidimensional risk. Individual indices representing multiple dimensions of risk should be developed using a range of methods to take advantage of their relative strengths. -Develop and apply collaborative approaches with public health officials, development organizations and relevant stakeholders to identify appropriate interventions and priority levels for different types of risk, while ensuring the needs and values of users are met in an ethical and socially responsible manner. -Enhance identification of vulnerable populations by further disaggregating risk estimates and accounting for demographic and behavioural variables and using novel data sources such as big data and citizen science. This review is the first to focus solely on WASH-related disease risk mapping and modelling. The recommendations can be used as a guide for developing spatial epidemiology models in tandem with public health officials and to help detect and develop tailored responses to WASH-related disease outbreaks that meet the needs of vulnerable populations. The report’s main target audience is modellers, public health authorities and partners responsible for co-designing and implementing multi-sectoral health interventions, with a particular emphasis on facilitating the integration of health and WASH services delivery contributing to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3 (good health and well-being) and 6 (clean water and sanitation).
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10

Frydman, Roman, and Nicholas Mangee. Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, September 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp164.

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This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when historically unique events cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which nonrepetitive events are associated with directionally similar expectations of future returns. Narrative analytics of daily news reports allow for assessment of bullish versus bearish views in the stock market. Increases in expectations concordance across all KU events leads to reinforcing effects and an increase in stock market volatility. Lower expectations concordance produces a stabilizing effect wherein the offsetting views reduce market volatility. The empirical findings hold for ex post and ex ante measures of volatility and for OLS and GARCH estimates.
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