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Journal articles on the topic 'Holt's method'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 28 May 2022

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Rosita, Yesy Diah, and Lady Silk Moonlight. "Perbandingan Metode Prediksi untuk Nilai Jual USD: Holt-Winters, Holt's, dan Single Exponential Smoothing." JTIM : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Multimedia 5, no. 4 (2024): 322–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.35746/jtim.v5i4.473.

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In the ever-changing landscape of the global economy, the role of the United States Dollar (USD) as the backbone of the international financial system significantly influences market stability and dynamics. The close correlation between fluctuations in the USD exchange rate and internal and external factors demands effective prediction methods to understand and manage associated risks. This study aims to compare the performance of three main prediction methods: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt's Method, and Holt-Winters Method, in forecasting USD exchange rates. Utilizing historical da

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Rachmat, Rachmat, and Suhartono Suhartono. "Comparative Analysis of Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt's Method for Quality of Hospital Services Forecasting in General Hospital." Bulletin of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering 1, no. 2 (2020): 80–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.25008/bcsee.v1i2.8.

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The quality health service is one of the basic necessities of any person or customer. To predict the number of goods can be done in a way predicted. The comparison method of Single Exponential Smoothing and Holt's method is used to predict the accuracy of inpatient services will be back for the coming period. Single Exponential Smoothing the forecasting methods used for data stationary or data is relatively stable. Holt's method is used to test for a trend or data that has a tendency to increase or decrease in the long term. The outcome of this study is the Single Exponential Smoothing method

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Sucipto, Christy Sheldy, Winita Sulandari, and Yuliana Susanti. "IMPLEMENTATION OF CROSS-VALIDATION ON HANG SENG INDEX FORECASTING USING HOLT’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING AND AUTO-ARIMA METHOD." BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan 19, no. 1 (2025): 13–24. https://doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp13-24.

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This study applies a rolling window cross-validation to evaluate the multi-step forecasts instead of using the traditional single split for Hang Sheng Index (HSI) forecasting. The forecasting methods discussed in this study are Holt's Exponential Smoothing and auto ARIMA, chosen because of their ability to model trend data as in the daily HSI. This research aims to evaluate up to five step forecast values obtained by the two forecasting methods built in the training data with rolling window cross-validation. In the experiment, each of the 21 auto ARIMA and Holt's models was constructed from 84

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Andreyanto, Muhammad Faisal, and Hana Catur Wahyuni. "Comparison of Forecasting Techniques Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing in Sugar Production for Enhanced Maintenance Preparedness Ahead of Milling Season." Procedia of Engineering and Life Science 7 (March 18, 2024): 620–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.21070/pels.v7i0.1558.

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Sugar as a commodity has a very vital role, not only being a basic need for Indonesian society, but also an inseparable element in various industrial sectors. The aim of this research is to compare sugar production forecasting systems by comparing two methods using moving averages and double exponential smoothing (holt's method). Forecasting is the process of projecting or predicting future events with a structured planning approach. Forecasting in sugar production is needed to find out whether the next month can meet the target or not. The amount of sugar production is used as a reference for

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Santosa, Raden Gunawan, Antonius Rachmat Chrismanto, and Willy Sudiarto Raharjo. "Comparison of the Accuracy of Brown's and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing in LQ45 Stock Price Forecasting." International Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Applications 2, no. 1 (2024): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.58776/ijitcsa.v2i1.112.

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As of May 2022, 787 stocks are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the number of stock indices in Indonesia to date is 38. One interesting and important stock index is the LQ45 index. Because this index is a very important reference index for investors, this research data focuses on stocks in the LQ45 index. There are two essential things in the forecasting process: the data and the right forecasting method. Two forecasting methods that can be used are Brown and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). This study examines two methods with the lowest accuracy error in forecastin

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Ariffin, Anas Fathul, Mohamad Syafiq Haiqal, Nor Azriani Mohamad Nor, Mohd Halimi Ab Hamid, and Muhammad Hilmi Samian. "A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HOLT’S, ARIMA, AND PROPHET METHODS IN FORECASTING KIJANG GOLD PRICES." International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices 7, no. 25 (2024): 325–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.35631/ijemp.725027.

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This study conducts a detailed comparison of three forecasting methods namely Holt's Method, ARIMA Model, and Prophet Method to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting the fluctuating prices of Kijang Gold. In addition, this paper highlights the importance of accurate forecasts in financial planning and investment, especially emphasizing the role of gold as a stable asset during economic uncertainties. Indeed, five-year periods of data from 2019 to 2023 are used in assessing the methods’ accuracy and reliability. This research measures the forecast models obtained by using Root Mean Squared

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Saifullah, Iqbal, and Yekti Condro Winursito. "Analisis Analisis Forecasting penjualan pupuk urea pada PT XYZ dengan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dan Holt’s." Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi 8, no. 1 (2025): 310–17. https://doi.org/10.31004/jutin.v8i1.38886.

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XYZ Company is a company engaged in fertilizer production in Indonesia. Fertilizer producers are faced with a number of challenges, namely demand fluctuations caused by seasonal factors or changes in consumption trends that often make fertilizer production difficult to predict. The company currently has inaccurate forecasting on fertilizer production as a result of which there is an excess or shortage of fertilizer production. This research aims to solve the problem of forecasting calculations and selecting the best forecasting method to be used in the amount of fertilizer production at XYZ Co

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Nasution, Baginda Muhammad, and Resista Vikaliana. "Forecast Analysis of Fruit Supply Using Time-Series Method: A Study at PT Aerofood Indonesia." Journal of Emerging Supply Chain, Clean Energy, and Process Engineering 3, no. 1 (2024): 23–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.57102/jescee.v3i1.79.

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PT Aerofood Indonesia is an entity operating in the aviation logistics industry, specifically as a partner of the Garuda Indonesia airline. The main problem faced is the tendency to have excessive supplies of raw materials, especially in the aspect of purchasing fruit because it is susceptible to damage. This phenomenon often recurs and peaks beyond dry goods capacity limits, especially the availability of papaya fruit which often exceeds capacity by more than 50%. Therefore, this research aims to identify the optimal forecasting method for papaya fruit to overcome the problem of excessive sto

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9

Mohamad Fozi, Nurin Qistina, and Azlan Abdul Aziz. "A NOVEL HYBRID HOLT INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (HIMA) FOR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX PREDICTION." International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices 7, no. 25 (2024): 367–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.35631/ijemp.725030.

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Holt's method, although successful, has limitations like its limited use for linear trends, seasonal fluctuations, and tendency to overestimate. The Damped Trend Method (DTM) was introduced to address these shortcomings, but still struggles with optimal forecast accuracy. Hence, this study proposes a new hybrid model by integrating the classical Holt's method and the Moving Average Box-Jenkins Methodology known as Holt Integrated Moving Average (HIMA). To evaluate the performance of the new hybrid model, Malaysia Consumer Price Index data from the year 1960 to 2022 was used. The dataset is par

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Ramesh, M., M. Sunitha, and M. Venkataramanaiah. "Holt's exponential smoothing method for forecasting silver prices." South Asian Journal of Marketing & Management Research 6, no. 8 (2016): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5958/2249-877x.2016.00006.0.

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Ramesh, M., K. Radhaiah, and M. Venkataramanaiah. "Forecasting gold prices using holt's exponential smoothing method." ACADEMICIA: An International Multidisciplinary Research Journal 6, no. 7 (2016): 136. http://dx.doi.org/10.5958/2249-7137.2016.00032.x.

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Mentari, Maharani Sari Mutiara, and Irwan Iftadi. "Selection of the Best Forecasting Method at PT. Indaco Warna Dunia." Teknoin 28, no. 01 (2023): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.20885/teknoin.vol28.iss1.art1.

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PT. Indaco Warna Dunia is a decorative paint company in Indonesia that produces products under the brands Envi, Belazo, and Top Seal. Preliminary observations revealed that the forecasting method used by the company is ineffective and inaccurate. This inaccurate forecast result company’s problem in fulfilling the demand. This study aims to select the best forecasting method to improve forecast effectiveness and accuracy. The research was conducted at the Tarakan depot, and the products understudy were a fast-moving product category, specifically the Envi brand. Several forecasting methods such

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Solikhin, Solikhin, Septia Lutfi, Purnomo Purnomo, and Hardiwinoto Hardiwinoto. "A machine learning approach in Python is used to forecast the number of train passengers using a fuzzy time series model." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 11, no. 5 (2022): 2746–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v11i5.3518.

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Train passenger forecasting assists in planning, resource use, and system management. forecasts rail ridership. Train passenger predictions help prevent stranded passengers and empty seats. Simulating rail transport requires a low-error model. We developed a fuzzy time series forecasting model. Using historical data was the goal. This concept predicts future railway passengers using Holt's double exponential smoothing (DES) and a fuzzy time series technique based on a rate-of-change algorithm. Holt's DES predicts the next period using a fuzzy time series and the rate of change. This method imp

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14

Altay, Nezih, Frank Rudisill, and Lewis A. Litteral. "Adapting Wright's modification of Holt's method to forecasting intermittent demand." International Journal of Production Economics 111, no. 2 (2008): 389–408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2007.01.009.

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15

Budianto, Heru, Erlan Darmawan, Rio Andriyat Krisdiawan, and Yasir Maulana. "Prediction Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing." International Journal Administration, Business & Organization 5, no. 4 (2024): 52–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.61242/ijabo.24.415.

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This research aim to Analysis of Buled Bread Production Using Holt's Exponential Smoothing. The number of loaves produced by Buled bread still uses estimates, causing the number of loaves produced to be excessive. The excess number of loaves produced increases production costs, which can cause losses. The method broadcast in forecasting is Holt's exponential smoothing because the data displayed shows an increasing trend that is not affected by the season. The calculation process uses Microsoft Excel and add-ins. The results of the calculation produce a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) val

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16

Anung Anindityo and Maryanah Safitri. "Komparasi Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Holt's Linear Method Pada Forecasting Volume Impor." SATIN - Sains dan Teknologi Informasi 9, no. 1 (2023): 199–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.33372/stn.v9i1.959.

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Volume impor produk migas dan non migas Indonesia periode September tahun 2022 ialah sebesar 15.369,00 ribu ton, dalam hal ini impor migas dan non migas Indonesia mengalami peningkatan dari tahun sebelumnya, pada tahun 2021 dengan periode yang sama volume impor migas dan non migas Indonesia sebesar 14.418,83 ribu ton. Akan tetapi, kebutuhan teknologi yang tidak diimbangi dengan penyajian data yang valid. Metode tradisional tidak dapat menangani data dalam jumlah besar. Tujuan dari penelitian ini melakukan forecasting volume impor migas dan non migas Indonesia menggunakan metode single exponent

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17

Leshchenko, Mariya, Larysa Ruban, and Katarzyna Kaźmierczak. "JOHN HOLT'S IDEAS IN CONTEXT OF HOME EDUCATION OF UKRAINIAN CHILDREN UNDER WARTIME CONDITIONS." International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences 18, no. 2 (2023): 269–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.8154.

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Aim: To define J. Holt’s ideas in the context of home education of children under wartime conditions. Methods: To achieve the goal, mainly theoretical research methods were used: the biograph-ical method for determining the main periods of J. Holt’s life, his professional and pedagogi-cal development; content analysis of J. Holt’s pedagogical heritage, study of the works of domestic and foreign researchers, analysis, synthesis, classification and generalization of facts regarding the genesis of J. Holt’s ideas about teacher’s pedagogical mastery; the meth-od of scientific extrapolation, which

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18

Muthahharah, Isma, Sitti Masyitah Meliyana, and Zakiyah Mar’ah. "Forecasting Indonesia’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Using the Holt's Exponential Smoothing Method." Quantitative Economics and Management Studies 6, no. 2 (2025): 302–8. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.qems3937.

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The Index of Wholesale Price (WPI) is a key benchmark in analyzing price movements at the wholesale level as it can affect the economic stability of a country. This research purpose to forecast the movement of WPI in Indonesia using Holt's Exponential Smoothing technique, which is effective in analyzing time series data that show trend patterns. This research utilizes secondary data obtained from the BPS for the period 2020-2024. The analysis is carried out by determining the optimal value of α and β parameters using trial and error techniques. Furthermore, the forecasting process is carried o

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Rachmat, Rachmat, and Suhartono Suhartono. "Comparative Analysis Method Single Exponential Smoothing Method and Holt's Recovery in Hospital Services in General Hospital." International Journal of Recent Contributions from Engineering, Science & IT (iJES) 8, no. 3 (2020): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3991/ijes.v8i3.16705.

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<p><strong><em><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;">Abstrak</span></span></span></span></em></strong><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"><span style="vertical-align: inherit;"> Pelayanan kesehatan yang berkualitas merupakan salah satu kebutuhan pokok setiap orang atau konsumen. </span></s

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20

Wright, David J. "Forecasting Data Published at Irregular Time Intervals Using an Extension of Holt's Method." Management Science 32, no. 4 (1986): 499–510. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.4.499.

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21

Gasper, Laban, and Abrahamu George Andwilile. "Modelling Petroleum Prices in Tanzania. A comparative analysis between ARIMA and Holt's Method." International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics 10, no. 9 (2023): 644–57. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10064237.

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Petroleum is one of the vital sources of energy for economic activities and the most traded commodity worldwide. It is crucial to industry and civilization and as it meets a substantial portion of the world's energy requirements, it has a big impact on global politics and intergovernmental relations. Given the importance of oil to the economy, projecting crude prices has received a lot of focus in the literature. The primary goal of this research is to assess how well Holt's technique and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecast the petroleum prices in Tanzania. To determine w

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Arfemitha, Nurlia Asih, Sudradjat Supian, and Julita Nahar. "Supply Control Of Oil Filter Spareparts Using EOQ And Min-Max Methods Based On Sales Forecast (Case Study: PT Astra International Tbk Soekarno Hatta)." International Journal of Global Operations Research 5, no. 1 (2024): 37–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.47194/ijgor.v5i1.284.

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Planning and controlling product inventory is very important for a company to ensure demand is met and maximize profits from sales effectively and efficiently. In addition, inventory planning and control are carried out to prevent excess or shortage of inventory. This study aims to predict sales and calculate inventory control to overcome excess stock and increased inventory costs on oil filter spare parts. The forecasting method used is Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method to determine the number of sales of the four types of oil filter spare parts in the future and overcome the problem

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Setiawan, Hamzah. "ONION CRACKERS SALES FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD AND HOLT'S DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING." MULTITEK INDONESIA 18, no. 1 (2024): 17–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.24269/mtkind.v18i1.7501.

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Changes in product demand is a problem that is often faced by the industry as well as one of them is onion crackers. Tapioca flour is the main ingredient used to make onion crackers. Because the demand for crackers is always changing, this company often experiences excess or shortage of raw materials. If there is an excess of raw materials, the company must incur additional costs for the maintenance and storage of raw materials so that raw materials can be properly stored in accordance with existing standards, which of course costs a lot. Therefore, companies must plan to solve this problem by

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Hariyadi, Masad, and Boy Isma Putra. "Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku Nalco Water Treatment Dengan Menggunakan Metode Lot Sizing." PROZIMA (Productivity, Optimization and Manufacturing System Engineering) 2, no. 2 (2019): 80. http://dx.doi.org/10.21070/prozima.v2i2.2199.

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The limited supply of Nalco raw materials from producers has become a problem for PT ABC, this has led to the control of raw material inventory at PT ABC not including good management, because in the management of raw materials the company still records inventory with manual systems and in ordering raw materials only based on estimates. From the results of the study, the forecasting method used is the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt's, Brown, and Holt Winters Additive Algorithm methods, from the three methods that are most suitable is the Double Exponential Smoothing Brown method with the sm

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Feng, Xinyi, Meijia Wu, and Yuchen Ye. "Research on Grain System Evaluation and Optimization Based on Entropy Weight Method." BCP Business & Management 19 (May 31, 2022): 78–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v19i.731.

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Owing to the unstable food system nowadays, it is urgent to establish a new food system that is robust enough, so we established the current food system scoring model based on 21 indicators at three levels: economy, environment, and food & nutrition. Then normalize the corresponding data of each indicator, and use DEA and entropy weight method(EWM) to calculate the weight to quantify the score of the food system. When strengthening the consideration of sustainability and equity, we use the grey correlation method to analyze the correlation coefficients between sustainability, equity and th

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Habsari, Humairo Dyah Puji, Ika Purnamasari, and Desi Yuniarti. "FORECASTING USES DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD AND FORECASTING VERIFICATION USES TRACKING SIGNAL CONTROL CHART (CASE STUDY: IHK DATA OF EAST KALIMANTAN PROVINCE)." BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan 14, no. 1 (2020): 013–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol14iss1pp013-022.

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Abstrak Peramalan merupakan suatu teknik untuk memperkirakan suatu nilai pada masa yang akan datang dengan memperhatikan data masa lalu maupun data saat ini. Data yang menunjukan suatu trend, cocok dengan metode peramalan double exponential smoothing dari Brown atau metode double exponential smoothing dari Holt. Peramalan metode double exponential smoothing pada penelitian ini diaplikasikan pada data IHK Provinsi Kalimantan Timur periode Bulan Januari Tahun 2016 hingga Bulan Februari Tahun 2019 yang berpola trend. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memperoleh hasil perbandingan akurasi me

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Herion Tarigan and Pardomuan Sitompul. "METODE DOUBLE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTHING DALAM MEMPERKIRAKAN JUMLAH KEBUTUHAN ENERGI LISTRIK DI PT PLN (PERSERO) WILAYAH SUMUT." JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM 2, no. 1 (2023): 225–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i1.786.

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Electrical energy is one of the most important things in human life. Electrical energy is needed in the industrial sector. In meeting the needs of electrical energy, good planning is needed by predicting the needs of electrical energy. Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method is a method that can be used to predict electrical energy needs. The results of forecasting the demand for electrical energy at PT PLN (Persero) for the North Sumatra Region for 2022 to 2030 use the Double Double Exponential Smoothing method from Holt (with a value of α = 0.99 and γ = 0.1 which has a MAPE value of 2.037

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Kobaszyńska-Twardowska, Anna, Mariusz Krzyżanowski, and Paweł Siwka. "Forecasting Trends of Safety Performance Indicators in Aviation." Safety & Defense 9, no. 2 (2023): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.37105/sd.201.

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The article concerns the issues of forecasting trends of safety performance indicators (SPIs)in civil aviation. The main objective was to present a proposal for the method of forecasting trends in air traffic safety performance indicators in the future. For this purpose, a SPI forecasting method based on Holt's exponential smoothing model was proposed. To confirm the correctness of the proposed method, a selected, sample safety performance indicator for Airspace Infringement occurrences was forecasted. An analysis of the obtained results was carried out, as well as the directions of further re

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Wang, You-Gan, and Nick Ellis. "Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55, no. 11 (1998): 2393–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f98-134.

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We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter Linfinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the

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Rahmawati, Fajar Islamiyah, Nurafni Eltivia, and Kartika Dewi Sri Susilowati. "PERAMALAN KEDATANGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA INDONESIA: METODE HOLT’S WINTER EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING." Media Mahardhika 18, no. 2 (2020): 233. http://dx.doi.org/10.29062/mahardika.v18i2.152.

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This reseacrh aims to predict the arrival of foreign tourists in Indonesia using the Exponential Smoothing method. This research is quantitative descriptive. The data used are data of foreign tourist arrivals according to nationality taken from the Badan Pusat Statistik. Data is managed through the Microsoft Excel application. In determining RMSE, Solver Parameter help is used in Microsoft Excel to determine the lowest error rate. The data used in this research indicate that there are trend and seasonal patterns, so the most suitable Exponential Smoothing method is the Holt's Winter Exponentia

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Yoga Satya Andriawan and Nur Muflihah. "ANALISIS PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN KARTON BOX UD BERKAH JAYA OFFSET MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES." Jurnal Penelitian Bidang Inovasi & Pengelolaan Industri 3, no. 1 (2023): 25–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.33752/invantri.v3i1.5004.

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UD Berkah Jaya Offset is one of the manufacturing companies operating in the field of cardboard box production. The company offers a variety of cardboard box products in various sizes, including sizes D1, D2, D3, trepes, and roll. In the production of cardboard boxes, particularly size D1, issues such as overstock and even stock shortages have been frequently encountered during the period from January 2022 to December 2023. This is due to the ineffective demand forecasting to anticipate these possibilities. This study aims to forecast the demand for size D1 cardboard boxes for the upcoming mon

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Lukicheva, I. A., and A. L. Kulikov. "Multi-model power system state estimation based on linear transition models." Vestnik IGEU, no. 1 (February 28, 2021): 31–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.17588/2072-2672.2021.1.031-040.

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Power system state estimation is one of the most important functions of power system control centers. In recent years, the complexity of power system state estimation has significantly increased due to the growing number of distributed, including renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, the demand response technologies, and the increased risk of cyber-attacks. Under these conditions, state estimation methods, which consider information about the time-correlation of the power system states have a great potential. The correlation is described by a transition model. The well-known state estim

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Fozi, Nurin Qistina Mohamad, Nurhasniza Idham Abu Hasan, Azlan Abdul Aziz, Siti Meriam Zahari, and Mogana Darshini Ganggayah. "Enhancing PETRONAS share price forecasts: a hybrid Holt integrated moving average." International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) 15, no. 1 (2025): 728–40. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v15i1.pp728-740.

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Understanding the variations in PETRONAS share price over time is important for improving the forecast accuracy of PETRONAS share prices to provide stakeholders with reliable analyses for future market predictions. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to improve the accuracy of PETRONAS share price by utilizing a hybrid Holt method with the moving average (MA) from the Box-Jenkins model. Holt's method will address linear trends for non-stationary data, while MA will analyze residual aspectsof the data. This combination transforms non-stationary data into

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Surtel, Izabela, and Piotr Jałowiecki. "TENDENCJE KONSUMPCJI WYROBÓW ALKOHOLOWYCH W EUROPIE W LATACH 2016-2019." Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych 20, no. 4 (2020): 293–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/mibe.2019.20.4.27.

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The paper presents the results of research on the determination of the trend of consumption of pure alcohol per one person in the years 2017 - 2019 and an analysis of the appropriateness of applying the division of Europe into regions according to the UN M49 classification. The study was conducted for European countries, divided into Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Western Europe and Eastern Europe. Holt's exponential double smoothing method was used in the forecasting process. As a result of the conducted research, general downward trends of the phenomenon in the discussed period were demon

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Bustami, Anne Mudya Yolanda, and Nisha Thahira. "Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia Using Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods." International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management 5, no. 1 (2023): 45–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.24002/ijieem.v5i1.6211.

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Non-oil and gas exports could be forecasted using exponential smoothing for future periods. This study examines non-oil and gas export data in Indonesia from January 2015 to May 2021, indicating trends and seasonality. Based on the data characteristics, the obtained data were analyzed using Holt's double exponential smoothing method and triple exponential smoothing with multiplicative and additives Holt-Winters. The MAPE for all three models is less than 10%, indicating that the method is very good and could be used to forecast the next period. Using MAPE as a comparison, the best model for no

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Oh, Gunung, Nakyung Shin, Suji Lee, Yoonjin Lee, Hohyun Jung, and Miyoung Hong. "Analysis and Prediction of R&D Investment Portfolio Based on Topic Modeling." Korean Data Analysis Society 26, no. 4 (2024): 993–1004. http://dx.doi.org/10.37727/jkdas.2024.26.4.993.

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Many countries are identifying crucial technologies for national security and economic growth amid global tech competition, crafting cross-departmental strategies to pursue them. We propose a platform for analyzing and predicting R&D investment portfolios based on government R&D project information and investment data to provide scientific evidence for strategic budget allocation. The proposed platform consists of the following four processes. First, topic modeling and project labeling are performed using project-related text data. Second, we propose a method for calculating the import

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Rahmawati, Anisa, Nayla Desviona, and Tiara Puapita Sari. "Estimation of the Open Unemployn Rate on Province Jambi Using the Double Exponential Smootthing." NUCLEUS 3, no. 1 (2022): 10–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.37010/nuc.v3i1.675.

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Unemployment is an employment problem that is often faced in every region, especially in Jambi Province. The indicator used to determine the number of unemployed is the open unemployment rate (TPT). High unemployment can be a major source of poverty that can lead to crime and hinder the process of economic development. As an initial precaution for the government before the increase in unemployment, which is to estimate the future TPT in Jambi Province. One of the methods used in estimating TPT in Jambi Province is the Double Exponential Smoothing Method from Holt. The measure of the forecast e

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Solikhin, Solikhin, Septia Lutfi, Purnomo Purnomo, and Hardiwinoto Hardiwinoto. "Prediction of passenger train using fuzzy time series and percentage change methods." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 10, no. 6 (2021): 3007–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i6.2822.

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In the subject of railway operation, predicting railway passenger volume has always been a hot topic. Accurately forecasting railway passenger volume is the foundation for railway transportation companies to optimize transit efficiency and revenue. The goal of this research is to use a combination of the fuzzy time series approach based on the rate of change algorithm and the Holt double exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of train passengers. In contrast to prior investigations, we focus primarily on determining the next time period in this research. The fuzzy time series is e

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., SUMAN, P. GODARA, R. K. TIWARI, P. MISHRA, and S. RAY. "Time series analysis and forecasting for major wheat producing states in India using ARIMA and Holt's linear trend method." Journal of Crop and Weed 19, no. 3 (2023): 100–110. https://doi.org/10.22271/09746315.2023.v19.i3.1747.

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Noor, N. A. M., and N. H. A. Rahman. "Exponential smoothing constant determination to minimize the forecast error." Mathematical Modeling and Computing 9, no. 1 (2022): 50–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.23939/mmc2022.01.050.

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One of the fundamental issues in exponential smoothing is to determine the smoothing constants. Researchers usually use the determination available in the statistical software. However, the result may not able to minimize the forecast error. For this study, the optimal values of smoothing constant are based on minimizing the forecast errors, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The double exponential smoothing method or Holt's method is chosen where two constant values must identify specifically the level and trend estimate, respectively. The real data set

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Pramesti, Andini Diyah, Mohamad Jajuli, and Betha Nurina Sari. "Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksi Pertambahan Jumlah Penduduk di Wilayah Kabupaten Karawang." Ultimatics : Jurnal Teknik Informatika 12, no. 2 (2020): 95–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.31937/ti.v12i2.1688.

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The density and uneven distribution of the population in each area must be considered because it will cause problems such as the emergence of uninhabitable slums, environmental degradation, security disturbances, and other population problems. In the data obtained from the 2010 population census based on the level of population distribution in Karawang District, the area of West Karawang, East Karawang, Rengasdengklok, Telukjambe Timur, Klari, Cikampek and Kotabaru are zone 1 regions which are the densest zone with a population of 76,337 people up to 155,471 inhabitants. This research predicts

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Ali, Karnila. "Forecasting Analysis of Share Price Index in Construction Companies Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2015-2019." Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences 5, no. 1 (2021): 42–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jerss.v5i1.11044.

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Stock is one of the investment instruments that many investors choose, both short and long term. Meanwhile, the stock price index is an essential indicator for investors deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. This study aims to determine what methods are suitable for predicting the Stock Price Index of Construction Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015-2019. By selecting a model that matches the existing time series data, to evaluate the results of the forecasting, the researcher uses a measure of accuracy with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute

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Utomo, Kunto, and Priadi Surya. "Comparison of Student and Class Projection Methods in Indonesia Primary and Secondary Education." Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pengajaran 58, no. 1 (2025): 144–56. https://doi.org/10.23887/jpp.v58i1.89657.

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Accurate planning in education requires reliable student and class size projections to anticipate resource needs, address challenges and ensure education quality. This study aims to respond to the need to evaluate various projection methods to identify the most effective approach in estimating student and class size in educational institutions in Indonesia, while assessing the effectiveness of eight different methods in projecting student and class size. The method used is comparative research with quantitative analysis techniques. The subjects of this study were the number of students and stu

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Vojtíšková, Petra, Stanislav Kráčmar, and Ignác Hoza. "Content of phytic acid in selected sorts of legumes." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 58, no. 1 (2010): 217–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201058010217.

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The aim of this study was to determine the content of phytic acid (phytate) in soybeans (Glycine max), yellow shelled peas (Pisum sativum) and lentil (Lens esculenta). Dry seeds were grounded to a fine powder. The moisture of samples was determined according to the Official Journal of the European Union (2009). The moisture of the samples was 8.42% in soybeans, 11.19% in yellow shelled peas and 10.07% in lentil. The content of phytic acid was determined by the modified Holt's method (1955) using the spectrophotometer. Standard curve was measured using the Na phytate standard solution (0.2 mM).

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Fozi, Nurin Qistina Mohamad, Nurhasniza Idham Abu Hasan, Azlan Abdul Aziz, Siti Meriam Zahari, and Mogana Darshini Ganggayah. "Enhancing PETRONAS share price forecasts: a hybrid Holt integrated moving average." International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) 15, no. 1 (2025): 728. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v15i1.pp728-740.

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Understanding the variations in PETRONAS share price over time is important for improving the forecast accuracy of PETRONAS share prices to provide stakeholders with reliable analyses for future market predictions. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to improve the accuracy of PETRONAS share price by utilizing a hybrid Holt method with the moving average (MA) from the Box-Jenkins model. Holt's method will address linear trends for non-stationary data, while MA will analyze residual aspects of the data. This combination transforms non-stationary data into stationary by removing noise

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Wei, Zihan. "Forecasting Development Trends and Analysing Influencing Factors of New Energy Electric Vehicles in China: Based on Multi-level Analysis and Time Series Modelling." Mathematical Modeling and Algorithm Application 2, no. 1 (2024): 44–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/1pydn504.

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This study comprehensively analyses the current development status and future trends of China's new energy electric vehicle industry, and constructs a multilevel analysis model by integrating data from multiple sources, systematically assessing the influence weights of factors such as policy orientation, economic development, technological innovation, infrastructure construction and environmental protection on the development of new energy vehicles. On this basis, ARIMA model, Holt's index smoothing model and multiple linear regression method are used to quantitatively forecast the development

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DALIMUNTHE, DESY YULIANA. "FIT OF STATISTICAL FORECASTING MODEL BERDASARKAN VARIABEL ANGKA KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG." E-Jurnal Matematika 9, no. 2 (2020): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2020.v09.i02.p288.

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Poverty is one of the main problems in economic development and is considered to be a variable to measure the success of the economic development of a region. This study is limited to the analysis and determination of the best forecasting statistical model for the variable poverty rate in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province area based on R Square, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) assessments. This study uses the Exponential Smoothing forecasting method which emphasizes the procedure of continuous improvement of the latest observation objects which hopef

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Zaichenko, Stefan, Andrii Trachuk, Nataliia Shevchuk, Kostiantyn Pochka, and Vadym Shalenko. "Forecasting the development of renewable national energy in the tourism sector of Ukraine." E3S Web of Conferences 508 (2024): 02006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202450802006.

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The article is devoted to a systematic review of modern trends in the use of renewable energy sources and their impact on the country's energy system. The basis of the analysis is the assessment of the degree of technological maturity of renewable energy technologies, the effectiveness of their implementation in comparison with traditional energy sources. Thanks to the wide scope of the analysis, the article will make an important contribution to the understanding of the prospects and determinants of the effective implementation of renewable national energy in the context of modern energy chal

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Rekha, V. Swarna, G. Kiran Kumar, and Dr E. Vidya Sagar. "Reliability Evaluation of Radial Distribution Feeder Considering Two Load Modelling of Forecasted Electric Vehicle Load." International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology 12, no. 5 (2023): 113–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.35940/ijeat.e4211.0612523.

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The use of an electric vehicle (EV) in place of an internal combustion engine reduces pollution and produces zero emissions. EVs need considerable electrical energy from the grid, and therefore it is necessary to evaluate the performance of the radial distribution system, including the Electrical Vehicle Charging Station (EVCS) load. The future EVCS load is forecasted using Holt's model, and then it is applied uniformly to the distribution system. This increases the magnitudes of currents, which are calculated using the backward and forward sweep method of load flow analysis. The increased mag

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Mu, Benrong, Peng Wang, and Haitang Yang. "Minimal Length Effects on Tunnelling from Spherically Symmetric Black Holes." Advances in High Energy Physics 2015 (2015): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/898916.

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We investigate effects of the minimal length on quantum tunnelling from spherically symmetric black holes using the Hamilton-Jacobi method incorporating the minimal length. We first derive the deformed Hamilton-Jacobi equations for scalars and fermions, both of which have the same expressions. The minimal length correction to the Hawking temperature is found to depend on the black hole’s mass and the mass and angular momentum of emitted particles. Finally, we calculate a Schwarzschild black hole's luminosity and find the black hole evaporates to zero mass in infinite time.

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