Academic literature on the topic 'Horse of the Year Show'

The image of a horse appears in many spheres of the British culture and in each case it has a special symbolic meaning. It is important to notice that the symbolic meaning is more essential in the British mentality than the material one. Festivals can be one of the spheres where we can observe the versatility and historical meaning of the horse image. On the one hand, horses as real animals play a significant role in various events: horse competitions, horse shows, parades, royal ceremonies, etc. On the other hand, there is also personification of fancy images of horses at British festivals. Different types of horse figures (hobby horses) take part at certain events. Each of them has its own history and is strongly connected to the location. The most famous horse event is horseracing taking place all over the country. There are 60 race tracks in Great Britain for this occasion. Horseracing appeared here in the XIV century. Soon the British worked out the rules for this event and they are current even today. Horseracing is not just sport for this nation, but a real holiday. Long ago Edward VII marked that it is “a garden party with racing tacked on”. So, for some people horseracing is a week of competitions among the best thoroughbred horses and for the others (ladies mostly) it is the opportunity to compete with each other in hat and dress design. It is significant to understand the difference between the notions “horseracing”, “horse competitions”, “horse show”. The first means classic racing which we have just discussed. Horse competitions are 10 international types of games approved by the International Federation of Equestrian Sports. A horse show is a festival holding the exhibition of the best breeds of horses and some types of competitions (e.g., show jumping, working hunter). One of the best known events is the Royal Windsor Horse Show which takes place every year in Windsor Home Park. It is always attended by the Royal Family. Another example is the Hyde Park festival aiming at choosing the Horse of the Year. Also, January 1 is the Day of Thoroughbred horses in Great Britain. It is a real holiday with the most unusual dishes for these animals (e.g. a Cheltenham pie 2018 made of hay, apples and carrots). At a number of British events horses play an important role, though they are not in the limelight. These are royal weddings, parades and a coronation. The Queen carriage is always carried by the Windsor Greys. There is even a statue to honour them in Windsor. These horses are also pictured at the Royal mail stamp. Personification of fancy images of horses can be seen at various British Festivals (16 in England, 3 in Wales, 1 on the Isle of Man): Padstow Hobby Horse Festival, Banbury Hobby Horse Festival, Minehead Hobby Horse Festival, Dunster Hobby Horse Festival, Hoodening, The Hunting of the Earl of Rone, Morris Dance, etc. The majority of them take place in the days of national holidays including Christmas, New Year, May Day, Halloween. Moreover, some pagan rites that deal with the image of a horse still exist in Great Britain. There is the festival to honour Epona who is a Celtic horse goddess (December, 18). The Welsh horse goddess Rhiannon is connected with the image of Mari Lwyd appearing in New Year events. The Irish horse goddess Macha is honoured at the festivals Lughnasa (August, 1) and Samhain (November, 1). Significantly, a horse is presented at festivals as a funny hero of a performance endowed with human traits, a friend to a person, and it is far from being a work animal. The image of a horse is more of a cultural value than a natural phenomenon.

The aim of the study was to estimate genetic parameters for show-jumping competition performance using random regression model. Show-jumping competition results collected between 1996 and 2009 were analyzed. The database contained 272 951 starts of 8020 horses. Identity number and gender of the horse, rider, competition date, the level of the competition and placing were recorded in the database. Competition levels were categorized into five groups. Weighted – competition level used – square root transformed placing was used to measure performance of horses. The random regression model included fixed effects for gender, year and place of competition, and random effects for rider, animal and permanent environment. Later performance of show-jumping horses measured with weighted square root ranks is less influenced by rider and permanent environmental effects than performance at the beginning of a horse’s sporting career. Heritability increased continuously from 6.3 years of age (2296 age in days), values were in the range of 0.07 and 0.37. Higher heritability was found in later ages. Weak genetic and phenotypic correlation was found between the early 4–5–6 years of age and older (7, 8, 8+) age classes. From 8.5 years of age (3132 days old) there were strong genetic and phenotypic correlations between neighboring age groups. For the same age classes moderate and strong genetic and phenotypic correlation was found. Genetic correlation between 13.5 years of age and older horses was very strong.

The aim of the study was to compare different fitted models for show-jumping results of sporthorses and to estimate heritability and repeatability value. Show-jumping competition results collected between 1996 and 2011 were analyzed. The database contained 358 342 starts of 10 199 horses. Identity number, name and gender of the horse, rider, competition year, the level and location of the competition and placing were recorded in the database. To measure performance of horses, placing, number of starters and competition level were used. Competitions were categorized into five groups based on their difficulty level. The used repeatability animal model included fixed effects for age, gender, competition place, year of competition (and competition level in case of non-weighted measurement variables), and random effects for rider, animal and permanent environment effect. Variance components were estimated with VCE-6 software package. The goodness-of-fit of the models was low and moderate. Heritability and repeatability values were low for each measurement variables. The best goodness-of-fit model the weighted square root of placing resulted the highest heritability and repeatability value h2=0.074 and R=0.296.

The Eneolithic Botai culture of the Central Asian steppes provides the earliest archaeological evidence for horse husbandry, ~5500 years ago, but the exact nature of early horse domestication remains controversial. We generated 42 ancient-horse genomes, including 20 from Botai. Compared to 46 published ancient- and modern-horse genomes, our data indicate that Przewalski’s horses are the feral descendants of horses herded at Botai and not truly wild horses. All domestic horses dated from ~4000 years ago to present only show ~2.7% of Botai-related ancestry. This indicates that a massive genomic turnover underpins the expansion of the horse stock that gave rise to modern domesticates, which coincides with large-scale human population expansions during the Early Bronze Age.

Abstract In athletic horse the evaluation of iron status is of great importance to improve physical performance and health status of animal. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes of iron indices following show jumping. Ten regularly trained Italian Saddlebred horses aged 7-8 years (mean body weight 467±12 kg) were subjected to three days jumping competition. Blood samples were collected at 5 time points: T0 (the day before competitions), T1 (immediately after exercise at day 1), T2 (immediately after exercise at day 2), T3 (immediately after exercise at day 3) and during the recovery period T4 (24 h after day 3). On each blood sample the values of red blood cell (RBC), hemoglobin concentration (Hb), hematocrit (Hct), serum iron, ferritin, transferrin, total iron-binding capacity (TIBC) and unsaturated iron-binding capacity (UIBC) were assessed. One-way repeated measure analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a statistical significant effect of exercise (P<0.05) on all studied parameters. The application of Bonferroni’s post-hoc comparison showed a statistical significant increase in all studied parameters after exercise. These results provide new information about the changes in iron profile of jumper horse following exercise allowing for better evaluation of the health status and physical performance of this athlete horse.

Maternal preconceptional, gestational, and postnatal environments alter offspring phenotype in humans and animals. In particular, embryo technologies were shown in horses and other species to affect offspring growth and metabolism. Quantitative genetic calculations in a database containing genealogy and a measured trait (performance) of individuals enable geneticists to estimate the respective contribution of (A) genetic aptitude for the trait (inherited from all parents), (B) genetic maternal aptitude (additional contribution of the mother and her ancestors, acting through pregnancy, lactation, and nursing), and (C) the permanent maternal environment (similarities between the offspring of a dam that are not attributed to genetics) to the variability of this trait in this population. Additionally, fixed effects can be introduced and estimated to take into account additional factors acting on individual performance. The aim of this project was to apply this method to estimate the respective contributions of A, B, and C as well as the fixed effects of maternal parity (D), age at foaling (E), foaling interval (F), embryo transfer (G), and breed of recipient mare (for ET recipients) on the adult offspring sport performance in show jumping horses. The data came from the French Horse Database established in 1976 for genealogy and performance; calculation was done using WOMBAT® software. The performance of 207,984 horses (4.5 years per horse), born to 90,438 dams (of which 4187 were ET recipients, the others being bred by AI or natural service), were studied. Performance was expressed as follows. For each event, points were distributed depending on the horse’s rank within the event and the event’s difficulty. The logarithm of the sum of points of the year has a Gaussian distribution and is then normalised to mean=0 and standard deviation=1. The genetic maternal aptitude and permanent maternal environment showed a small but significant contribution to the variance of performance (1.4 and 1.5%, respectively) compared to a direct genetic contribution of 24.4%. Within each age class of dam, offspring of primiparous mares have a handicap (−0.04 to −0.06) compared to multiparous mares. Within multiparous mares, a foaling interval of 1 year only provided a small advantage (+0.01, nonsignificant) compared to longer intervals (&gt;2 years). The effect of embryo transfer was strong and significant (+0.24), which could reflect the better management of the horses produced by embryo transfer because of their genetic and financial value rather than a physiologic effect. The performance of offspring born to draft and warmblood recipients (+0.27v. +0.24, nonsignificant) were not different. In conclusion, although jumping performance occurs several years after birth, maternal effects are still measurable and embryo transfer is associated with a strongly increased performance independent of genetic value, probably due to better management of these horses. No effect of recipient mare’s breed was found.

Abstract The group of 36 warm-blooded half-bred horses (18 stallions and 18 mares) and their riders (20 men and 16 women), who ended three-day-events, were selected for the study. The horses were aged 4 to 6 years, while the riders were 19 to 34-year-old. The saliva samples were collected after each phase of the competitions. The cortisol concentration was determined using an immunoassay method. The following factors were considered: type of competition, horse sex, and rider gender. In horses, the statistically important correlation was found between the results obtained for the dressage and cross-country, for the cross-country and show jumping, and for the dressage and show jumping. An analogous comparison for the riders suggests a statistically significant correlation between the data obtained for the cross-country and show jumping. Comparing the data of horses and their riders, a significant correlation coefficient was found for the cross-country group of woman and the dressage group of men. In conclusion, the salivary cortisol level in individual horses in each phase of three-day-event was found to be repetitive. Therefore, the salivary cortisol test is demonstrated to be a useful method to evaluate the horse response to each type of competition during three-day-events.

AbstractThe aim of the study was to find a possible way to measure the performance of sport horses based on their show jumping results and to estimate the heritability and repeatability values of these performances. The performance was measured with transformation of ranks, taking into account the number of starters at competition and the competition level. The used transformations were logarithmic, square root and an inverse normal transformation known as Blom method. Competitions were categorized into five groups based on their level of difficulty. The level of difficulty of the competitions was used as weighting factors, so performance traits were distinguished being weighted and non-weighted. Show jumping competition results collected between 1996 and 2011 were analysed. The database contained 358342 starts of 10199 horses. Identity number, name and gender of the horse, rider, competition year, the level and location of the competition and ranks were recorded in the database. The used repeatability animal model included fixed effects for age, gender, competition place, year of competition, and random effects for rider, animal and permanent environment effect. Variance components were estimated with VCE-6 software package. The goodness-of-fit of the models was low and moderate (0.09-0.47). Fitting models for weighted traits had better goodness-of-fit value. The best goodness-of-fit values were found in the case of level weighted variables. Heritability (0.02-0.07) and repeatability values (0.09-0.25) were low for each measurement variable.

The Grand National (GN) attracts high profile press and subsequent public attention. This study aimed to establish if factors influential to non-completion, horse-falls and specific fence risk in the GN supported the measures implemented by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) to improve equine welfare in the GN. Horse, jockey, trainer and race related factors associated with non-completion, horse-falls and horse-falls at specific fences of the GN were collated over a 22 year period from 1990 to 2012. Descriptive analysis calculated non-completion rates per year, according to age and reason for non-completion. The distribution of fallers during the race in relation to fence number, design and key feature fences were also determined. Univariable analysis informed multivariable model building to identify factors associated with non-completion (n=840) and horse-falls (n=514) in the GN. Two final logistic regression models were refined through a backward stepwise process with variables retained if likelihood ratio test P-values were <0.05. Chi-square goodness of fit analyses evaluated fall risk at fence level. During the period investigated 347 horses completed the GN; the probability of a horse falling in the race was 0.24. The first fence, Becher's brook and drop fences increased the risk of falling compared to plain fences. Good-soft going increased the number of horses that completed the race and reduced the number of fallers suggesting this is the optimal ground condition for the race. GNs run at a faster than average speed increased the risk of horses not completing and falling. Inexperienced horses and jockeys show a greater risk of not completing and falling. Our work supports BHA measures implemented to improve safety in the GN; controlling speed, modifying fence design, promoting race experience and ground maintenance to produce good-soft going can increase completions and reduce falls, therefore enhancing equine welfare.

Virtually all horses in Poland receive periodically deworming treatment. In the view of emerging anthelmintic resistance it is important to know the current parasite control practices used by Polish horse owners. In order to assess the situation and analyze it in terms of the risk of drug resistance, a questionnaire survey was forwarded to 300 horse establishments. The response rate was 49.6%. The average number of deworming treatments in adult horses was determined at 2.1. and 2.8 for youngstock per calendar year. The most commonly used drugs were ivermectin, pyrantel pamoate and moxidectin. Almost 73% of respondents indicated that they take into consideration the resistance of parasites. However, only 4,03% of the responders regularly send faecal samples from all horses for parasitological examination. In ca. 92% of cases the person administrating the drug guessed the weight of the horse by the visual evaluation. Generally, little attention was payed to pasture hygiene and prevention of parasitic infection. The responses indicate high level of awareness among horse owners of the need to control parasites. It also show the large involvement of veterinarians as a source of advice about deworming practices, so we concluded that the most appropriate way to achieve improvement would be implementation of further education programmes for veterinarians.

The Gift Horse: Creating and Directing a Winter Show for Caravan Farm Theatre, examines the preparation, directorial analysis, and rehearsal process of The Gift Horse, staged at Caravan Farm Theatre from December 10th to 31st 2011. My objective was to co-write, co-create, compose music for, and direct a meaningful family winter production for Caravan. To achieve this, my writing and creation partner, Erin Mathews, and myself, began researching and writing The Gift Horse in June of 2011. Upon completion of the script, my directorial preparation began. As a Caravan Farm Theatre winter production is told and performed at various locations over its eighty-acre property, with the audience witnessing the production from the back of eight horse-drawn sleighs, my directorial methods and goals were atypical to how one might prepare for an indoor theatre show, as detailed in this paper. To that end, Chapter One provides a detailed directorial analysis of The Gift Horse, Chapter Two is a Production Journal reporting on the entire creation period of the play from the writing, to designing, to rehearsing, to its opening night, and Chapter 3 is a short reflection on the entire process.

Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o perfil eletrocardiográfico dos eqüinos praticantes de hipismo clássico em São Paulo e também se estes parâmetros sofrem influências em relação ao tipo de atividade física desempenhada pelo animal (provas de salto abaixo de 1,20 metros e provas acima de 1,20 metros), faixa etária e fatores sexuais. Foram utilizados 100 eqüinos de hipismo clássico, representados por 61 machos e 39 fêmeas, com idades entre 4 e 19 anos. A freqüência cardíaca variou de 18,50 batimentos por minuto (bpm) a 89,45bpm, com média de 40,2077±13,3321, o ritmo cardíaco mais freqüente foi o sinusal com 56%, seguido de taquicardia sinusal 23%, arritmia sinusal 20% e bradicardia sinusal com 1%. As alterações encontradas foram: marcapasso migratório 25%, bloqueio átrio-ventricular de 2°grau (BAV de 2°grau) 9%, BAV de 1°grau 7%, complexos ventriculares prematuros 2% e bloqueio sinoatrial/ \"sinus arrest\" e complexos atrial prematuro com 1%. O eixo elétrico no plano frontal em 87% dos casos esteve entre o e +90 graus. O score cardíaco médio foi de 94,9±16,1milisegundos e em relação à duração na derivação bipolar II, obteve-se onda P com 0,1100±0,0242 segundos, intervalo P-R com 0,3140±0,0744 seg., complexo QRS com 0,0908±0,0250 seg., intervalo QT com 0,4908±0,0536 seg. e onda T com 0,1130±0,0330 seg. Quanto à amplitude também na derivação bipolar II, obteve-se onda P única em 35% dos casos com média de 0,2671±0,0747 milivolts, onda P bifásica em 11% dos eqüinos com média de 0,3136±0,1098mV e onda P bífida em 54% dos animais, sendo esta dividida em porção 1 e 2 (P1 e P2), P1 teve média de 0,1352±0,0492mV e P2 teve média de 0,2259±0,0502mV. A onda R e a onda T estiveram presentes em 100% dos eqüinos obtendo média de 1,0220±0,5028mV e 0,4425±0,2042mV, respectivamente. Quanto à morfologia, considerando-se todas as derivações analisadas, encontraram-se 11 configurações distintas para a onda P e 5 configurações diferentes para o complexo QRS e para a onda T. Segundo as análises estatísticas, houve diferenças significativas na duração, amplitude e morfologia de algumas ondas, intervalos e complexos, em relação ao grupo de atividade física, sexo e idade.
This study aimed to evaluate the electrocardiographic profiles of horses practicing show jumping in São Paulo as well as whether these parameters are affected by kind of physical activity performed by the animal (competitions below 1.20m jumps or above 1.20m), the age level or gender. A hundred show jumping horses were used, being 61 males, and 39 females. Their ages ranged from 4 to 19 years. Heart rate ranged from 18.50 beats per minute (bpm) to 89.45bpm, with an average of 40.2077±13.3321, the most frequent rhythm was sinusal with 56%, followed by sinus tachycardia 23%, sinus arrhythmia 20% and sinus bradycardia 1%. The alterations found were: wandering pacemaker 25%, second-degree atrioventricular block (BAV 2°) 9%, first-degree BAV 7%, ventricular premature complexes 2% and sinoatrial block / sinus arrest as well as premature atrial complexes 1%. The electrical axis at the frontal plane in 87% of the cases was between 0 and +90°. The average cardiac score was 94.9±16.1 milliseconds. In relationship to the bipolar lead II, P wave with 0.1100±0.0242 seconds, P-R interval of 0.3140±0.0744 seconds, QRS complex of 0.0908±0.0250 seconds, QT interval of 0.4908±0.0536 seconds and T wave with 0.1130±0.0330 seconds were obtained. In the amplitude, also at the bipolar lead II a single-peaked P wave was obtained in 35% of the cases with an average of 0.2671±0.0747 millivoltz, biphasic P wave in 11% of horses with an average of 0.3136±0.1098 mV and bifid P wave in 54% of the animals, being the latter divided into portions 1 and 2 (P1 and P2). P1 got an average of 0.1352±0.0492mV and P2 got an average of 0.2259±0.0502 mV. R wave and T wave were present in 100% of the horses, getting an average of 1.0220±0.5028mV and 0.4425±0.2042mV respectively. In relationship to the morphology, considering all the analyzed leads, 11 different configurations for P wave, and 5 different configurations for T wave were observed. According to the statistical investigation, there were significant differences in duration, amplitude and morphology of some waves, intervals and complexes in relationship to the physical activity group, sex and age.

Doctor of Philosophy
The aim of this research was to describe the epidemiology of musculoskeletal (MS) injuries in two- and three-year-old Thoroughbred racehorses. A 27 month longitudinal study commencing in May 2000 was conducted. The study convenience sampled 14 trainers with facilities at metropolitan and provincial racetracks in New South Wales, Australia. In the 2000/01 and 2001/02 racing season, 323 and 128 two-year-olds, respectively, were enrolled in the study. The 451 Thoroughbred horses contributed, 1, 272 preparations and 78, 154 training days to the study. Of the 323 horses enrolled in the 2000/01 racing season, 219 contributed three-year-old data to the study. During the study period 8%, of training days had missing training data and 3% of the 1, 986 starts in the races or barrier trials were incorrectly recorded. The rate of incorrect entries varied with both study month and trainer. Similarly, the rate of training days with missing data varied between trainers and with study month. Four hundred and twenty-eight MS injuries were recorded in association with 395 preparations in 248 two- and three-year-old Thoroughbred racehorses. The IR for all categories of MS injuries, except for tendon and ligament injuries, were higher in twoyear- olds than three-year-olds, although the differences were only significant for shin soreness. Seventy-eight percent of horses enrolled in the study started, in a barrier trial or race, within one year on entering the study. After accounting for other confounders, horses that had sustained a MS injury were 0.50 times less likely to start, in a race or trial, race than those that did not sustain an injury. Seventy percent of horses returned to training after their first MS injury, and the cumulative percentage of these horses that had recovered within six months of the initial MS injury was 55%. After adjusting for clustering at the level of the trainer, the analysis showed that horses that exercised at a gallop pace ≥ 890 m/minute (but had not started in a race) prior to the onset of MS injury, were 2.14 times more likely to recover than horses whose maximum speed, prior to the onset of the first MS injury, was less than 890 m/minute. Similarly, horses that had started in a race or barrier trial were 4.01 times more likely to recover than horses whose maximum speed was less than 890 m/minute. 8 Training days were grouped into units referred to as preparations. A preparation began on the day that the horse was enrolled in the study, or when a horse returned to training after an absence of more than seven days from the stable. The preparation continued until the horse was lost to follow-up or left the stable for a period of more than seven consecutive days. Univariable and multivariable analytical methods were used to examine the association between a range of independent variables and four preparationlevel measures of performance: (i) the duration of preparations, (ii) length of time from the beginning of the preparation until the first start in a race or barrier trial, (iii) length of time from the first start until the end of the preparation and (iv) rate of starts in races or barrier trials. After adjusting for confounders, younger horses tended to have shorter preparations, took longer to start in a race or barrier trial, had a shorter interval from the first start to the end of the preparation and fewer starts per 100 training days. MS injury was not conditionally associated with any of the outcomes considered in this chapter. Multivariate statistical models were used to explore risk factors for MS injuries. The results suggest that MS injuries involving structures in the lower forelimb (carpus to fetlock inclusive) could be reduced by limiting exposure to high-speed exercise. This supports the proposition that training injuries are caused by the accumulation of micro damage. The results suggest there are a number of other factors that vary at the trainer level that may be risk factors for injuries, in particular joint injuries. These include unmeasured variables such as the rate of increase in distance galloped at high-speed, conformation of the horse, skill of the riders and farrier and veterinary involvement.

This study investigated the outcomes and practice of Therapeutic Horseback Riding (THR) for children aged 9 to 12 diagnosed with Attention Deficit with Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The study was carried out in order to gain new insights in the learning and growth processes facilitated by Therapeutic Horseback Riding (THR) and to improve practice. Two learning and growth processes were identified and investigated: establishing a therapeutic vision and infusing it into the therapeutic plan and facilitating the transfer of newly learned or improved skills and learning strategies from the riding learning environment to parallel learning environments such as the client’s school and home. The research also explored ways to amplify levels of skill acquired during THR sessions and to support the transformation process experienced by THR clients. A pilot exploratory survey was conducted among THR practitioners and participating parents. In depth interviews and observations were conducted. A multiple case study paradigm was selected for the purpose of the study. In depth interviews were conducted with children diagnosed with ADHD, parents, and teachers. In addition, relevant documents were examined. A THR manual for practitioners was developed to support and inform learning partnerships between school (teachers), THR practitioners (THRPs) and children and their family, in order to standardise THR practice. The findings of this research showed that the THR practitioners (THRPs) should facilitate the acquisition and transfer of skills and strategies learned during THR sessions to other environments, such as family and school, in order to improve the quality of life of children diagnosed having ADHD. The Knowing Therapeutic Horseback Riding (KTR) model of THR practice emerged and was shown to be effective in promoting a learning and growth partnership between school, THR practitioner, client and his family. The KTR model calls for the nurturing of this partnership in order to support the learned skills and amplify them.

Uppsatsen nedan är baserad på en kvantitativ och en kvalitativ undersökning med syfte att kartläggaolika sporters, med fokus på hästsport, representation och framställning under en fyraveckorsperiod2012 i två av Sveriges största dagstidningar. Vi ansåg det viktigt att genomföra den här undersökningenför att se om fördomarna kring bristen på representation av hästsport i media har någongrund, samt om mediestormen kring Rolf-Göran Bengtssons Jerringpris gav någon efterverkan förhästsportens representation.Först genomfördes den kvantitativa studien där över 1 100 artiklar analyserades. Den kvalitativastudien följde där fyra reportage valdes ut för vidare analys. Reportagen behandlade de tre mestomskrivna sporterna samt hästsport. Reportagen analyserades och jämfördes i hopp om att finnamönster med likheter eller skillnader. De viktigaste fynden inkluderar bland annat att det skrevsflest hästsportsartiklar veckan då Göteborg Horse Show pågick, men under den sista undersökningsveckanskrevs inga alls.
The following essay is based on a quantitative as well as a qualitative study with the aim ofmapping out the representation and depiction of different sports, with focus on equestriansports, in two of Sweden’s largest daily newspapers during a time period of four weeksin 2012. We considered it important to see if there was any ground for the prejudicesabout the lack of representation of equestrian sports in the media, and we also wanted tosee if the media storm following Rolf-Göran Bengtsson’s win of Jerringpriset in any wayaffected the sport’s representation.First, the quantitative study was executed with over 1 100 articles analyzed. The qualitativestudy followed where four reports were selected for further investigation. These coveredthe three sports most written about as well as the equestrian sports. They were analyzedand compared in order to locate patterns of resemblance or difference. One of the mostimportant finds was that the majority of the articles in the quantitative study about equestriansports were written during the week of Gothenburg Horse Show while there were noarticles written about said sport during the final week of the study.

The media narrative of the ‘contract year effect’ is espoused across all major professional American sports leagues, particularly the MLB and NBA. In line with basic incentive theory, this hypothesis has been shown to be true in baseball, but the analysis in basketball to this point has been flawed. In estimating the contract year effect in the NBA, this paper is the first to define rigorously the various states of contract incentives, the ignorance of which has been a source of bias in the literature thus far. It further expands on previous analyses by measuring individual performance more broadly across a range of advanced metrics. Lastly, it attempts to account for the intrinsic endogeneity of playing in a contract year, as better players get longer contracts and are thus less likely to be in a contract year, by using exogenous variations in the NBA’s contract structure to form an instrument, and by comparing performance to a priori expectations. In this manner, this paper produces the first rigorous finding of a positive contract year phenomenon. The estimated effect is about half that found in baseball, equivalent to a 3-5 percentile boost in performance for the median player in the NBA.

Abstract The Icelandic horse is one of the purest horse breeds in the world, reaching an average 140 cm (13.3 hh) height at the withers and weighing 340 kg. The conformation is rectangular and compact, with a sloping croup, and a long, thick mane and tail. The breed is most known and appreciated for the lateral gaits tölt and pace, which it has in addition to the basic gaits (walk, trot and canter/gallop). The breed is found in more than 30 countries, with more Icelandic horses abroad (ca. 175,000) than in Iceland (ca. 65,000). There is one international studbook, WorldFengur, with breeding associations in 21 countries and a common breed evaluation system. Following mechanization in Iceland around 1950, the role of the Icelandic horse changed from being 'the most useful servant' to that of a leisure and sport horse. Also in 1950, Landsmót - the largest outdoor sporting event for the Icelandic horse in Iceland - was held for the first time. It was then repeated every four years until 1998 and biennially after that. Landsmót has been held 23 times in total, at seven different locations in the south and north of Iceland, lasting for 3-8 days in the high summer period. The event has expanded over time with an increasing number of horses, riders and competition disciplines. This chapter introduces the disciplines, qualification of horses and riders and facilities required for Landsmót.

Abstract Event legacies include, but also go beyond, the long-term impacts of an event. While the majority of research on sports events legacies has focused on mega-events hosted in urban cities, the concept is shown here to be equally applicable to smaller sports events and those hosted in rural areas. In the case of a biennial sports event held at different sites in different years - like the Icelandic horse championships, Landsmót - legacies build over time, related to various aspects such as infrastructure, environment, culture, sport and event policies. In this chapter the legacies of Landsmót 2016 are explored, focusing on infrastructure, rurality as a cultural aspect of the event and the affective or emotional impacts as important in legacy building. Data for this chapter were collected through semi-structured retrospective interviews with five individuals engaged in planning and running Landsmót 2016 in Hólar, Iceland.

Almost every two-year-old horse has potential; they are just starting their racing careers, and anything can happen. Bid starts slowly as a two-year-old, winning his first two races and losing his next two. Although other horses grab the spotlight first, Bid begins to show promise, winning several stakes races en route to grabbing the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Two-Year-Old Male Horse.

This chapter details events that occurred in London in June 1858. These include the soaring temperatures which reached 94.5 °F in the shade on 16 June; weekly newspapers' focus on the heat, the Thames, and public health; the show of famous American horse tamer, James Rarey, along with his book The Art of Taming Wild Horses as one of the entertainment sensations of the year; the popularity of crinoline petticoats among ladies; and Charles Darwin's sojourn in Moor Park to seek relief from his chronic ailments and from working too hard on his ‘everlasting species-Book’ as he told Charles Lyell.

The show of fat beasts in London took place this year on the twentieth day of December, and I have always understood that a certain bullock* exhibited by Lord De Guest was declared by the metropolitan butchers to have realized all the...

DP shuttle tankers performing offloading directly from fixed or geostationary floating offshore installations is addressed in this paper. It is important to ensure that disconnection of offloading hose can be achieved in time given shuttle tanker DP failure and position loss. The accident scenario is the hose fail-to-disconnect while shuttle tanker has an excessive position excursion. The consequence can be oil spill combined with the damage the offloading system. The spill amount can be as much as the crude oil volume in the hose, or over 1000 m3 if isolation and shutdown of oil export pump on the installation are not achieved timely. Various barriers to prevent oil spill have been developed over the past 30 years’ history of shuttle tanker offshore loading. However, the direct offloading is a new operational context to the traditional offloading. A quantitative frequency model for oil spill initiated by DP shuttle tanker position loss in direct offloading is presented in this paper. Case study results show that in the base case where only traditional barriers are used, the frequency for large oil spill up to 1000 m3 or more may reach 2.48E−03 per year, given 20 hours offloading cargo transfer time and 52 times offloadings per year. This frequency is not negligible, and risk reduction measures are viewed necessary. Novel safety barriers, i.e. Automatic Shutdown and Release (ASDR), as well as the HPR (Hydroacoustic Position Reference) and BLS (Bow Loading System) weak link mode, are analyzed as sensitivity cases. Results show that the frequency of large oil spill can then be reduced to 3.81E−05 per year, i.e. 1.5% of the base case value, and this is well within 1.0E−04 per year level. Recommendations to minimize oil spill risk during DP shuttle tanker direct offloading operations are proposed in this paper.

Pipeline integrity has been threatened at the Dead Horse Creek pipeline crossing in southern Manitoba by a slow-moving slope failure with a potential for crest retrogression. The movement zone extends from the slope crest to the bottom of the creek, a vertical distance of about 25 m and is approximately 80 m long from toe to scarp and 100 m wide along the creek. The slope has degraded over time and is controlled by the combination of local geology, which consists of weak colluvium overlying high plastic clay shale, and creek bank erosion and channel degradation. Saturated soil conditions, a function of poor drainage and elevated seasonal precipitation, have exacerbated the problem over the years. The slope movements have been monitored on a regular basis since 2008 and presented an increasing risk to the integrity of multiple pipelines located in two rights-of-way (ROWs) situated within and immediately adjacent to the failing soil mass. The site is surrounded by various infrastructure and recreational areas that are key to the community, and therefore is considered a high consequence area with respect to potential pipeline failures. To manage the risk and protect pipeline integrity, various stress relief and other mitigating measures have been implemented since 2013 [1], culminating in a major slope rehabilitation project undertaken in 2015, which comprised earthworks, drainage and watercourse improvements, and slope stabilization using stone columns. While the use of stone columns to stabilize embankments is not a new technique, it is not commonly used in the pipeline industry and represents another option for geohazard stabilization in the right situations. This paper presents the slope stabilization techniques employed and discusses the challenges of working on an active moving slope confined by a watercourse and live pipeline assets. The positive benefits of the stabilization measures are illustrated through the use of 2D and 3D numerical modelling, and confirmed through an ongoing geohazard management program that includes site inspection and instrumentation monitoring which continues to show improvements in slope performance post construction.

A PV/T hybrid system is able to simultaneously produce electricity and heat from solar radiation. The feasibility of implementing PV/T systems depends primarily on climatic and economic characteristics of locations where are planned to be placed. Particularly in Mexico, there are only a few studies in the scientific literature which report the feasibility of using such innovative systems. Therefore, in this work the development of a techno-economic study is presented aiming to predict the performance and feasibility of implementation of this type of hybrid systems. Firstly, a PV/T system was designed to partially cover the needs of electricity and hot sanitary water in the domestic sector (considering a house of four inhabitants). Then, PV/T hybrid system operation was simulated using TRNSYS software over a full year using data from a typical meteorological year (TMY) of Morelia city (Michoacan State). Finally, an economic analysis was conducted, estimating the inherent cash flows and computing some economic indicators to determine the feasibility of implementation of PV/T system adapted to Mexican economic conditions. The simulation results show that the proposed system consisting of 1.55 m2 of collection area, will annually produce 1480.95 kWh and 393.57 kWh of thermal and electrical energy, respectively. The system is able to meet up to 51.2% of thermal energy and 29.2% of the electricity needed. The system reaches a total efficiency of 57.48%. The results of economic analysis indicate that in optimistic case, the proposed system has a simple payback period of 6.62 years, a net present value of $2129.0 Mexican pesos, and an internal rate of return of 14%, showing economic feasibility. The results show the great potential of the use of the hybrid PV/T systems for domestic water heating and electric production at particular locations in Mexico.

This paper presents the effect of the shade of a tree on the indoor temperature and thermal loads of a house (test house) located in the State of Morelos, Mexico, 18° 50′ 43″ north latitude and 99° 10′ 44″ west longitude. Energy Plus was used to simulate different geometries of the shadow of a tree and the simulation results were compared with experimental measurements of the house without air-conditioning, for one warm and one cold week of the year 2011. The results showed that the maximum temperature difference between the measured and simulated temperatures with both geometry models of tree-shading was 1.7°C. When the effect of tree shading is not considered, it was found that there is a maximum temperature increase of 4°C in the warm week compared with the measured results. In the cold week, the temperature increase was 1.3°C compared with the measured results. Simulation results for an air-conditioned tree-shaded test house show that total annual energy consumption for cooling and heating to achieve thermal comfort represents a substantial energy savings of 76.6% when compared with an unshaded house.

Abstract Condensate banking in natural gas reservoirs can hinder the productivity of production wells dramatically due to the multiphase flow behaviour around the wellbore. This phenomenon takes place when the reservoir pressure drops below the dew point pressure. In this work, we model this occurrence and investigate how the injection of CO2 can enhance the well productivity using novel discretization and linearization schemes such as mimetic finite difference and operator-based linearization from an in-house built compositional reservoir simulator. The injection of CO2 as an enhanced recovery technique is chosen to assess its value as a potential remedy to reduce carbon emissions associated with natural gas production. First, we model a base case with a single producer where we show the deposition of condensate banking around the well and the decline of pressure and production with time. In another case, we inject CO2 into the reservoir as an enhanced gas recovery mechanism. In both cases, we use fully tensor permeability and unstructured tetrahedral grids using mimetic finite difference (MFD) method. The results of the simulation show that the gas and condensate production rates drop after a certain production plateau, specifically the drop in the condensate rate by up to 46%. The introduction of a CO2 injector yields a positive impact on the productivity and pressure decline of the well, delaying the plateau by up to 1.5 years. It also improves the productivity index by above 35% on both the gas and condensate performance, thus reducing production rate loss on both gas and condensate by over 8% and the pressure, while in terms of pressure and drawdown, an improvement of 2.9 to 19.6% is observed per year.

Abstract In this paper, energy conservation approaches for residential buildings in rural area of southeast China are studied. There used to be no heating habits in rural buildings of southeast China, which is due to the relatively warm weather in winter. However, as the stand of living is increasing, heating in winter has become more popular in recent years. It is quite important to choose proper heating conservation materials taking both initial cost and operating cost into consideration. In this paper, a typical house in southern part of Henan Province is selected for study. It is a two-level house made of bricks, which was built in 2014. A set of radiators were installed for heating in winter. Water, which is heated by electrical heater, is used as heating medium for these radiators. As compared with heat pumps, draft sensation problem is avoided and temperature in the heating space is more uniform. However, operating fee is very high, which makes this heating method less attractive. To reduce power consumption of winter heating, heating load needs to be reduced and the efficiency of heating equipment needs to be increased. In this study, researches are carried out as following. First, a model is built in DeST, which is a software that can calculate hourly heating load and room temperature. Then, the effect of thermal preservation quality of envelops on room temperature and heating load are investigated. Six models with different envelopes are simulated. Then, heating load as well as power consumptions of electrical heaters and heat pumps among the six envelopes are compared. Lastly, economic analysis is carried out for the energy efficient retrofit case so that the payback period is calculated. The results show that heating load capacity of case F, envelope of which made of 240 bricks plus foamed plastic and hollow glass windows, can be reduced to 1/3 that of case A, envelope of which made of 240 bricks and single glass windows. Considering power consumptions of both compressors and fans, energy consumption density (divided by area) can be reduced from 21.6∼25 kWh·m−2·year−1 of case A, which has the worst heat conservation property, to 6.7∼7.7 kWh·m−2·year−1 of case F. If the building is improved from case A to case F and heat pumps are adopted, the payback period is 3.3∼3.8 years. Because of high cost of window retrofit and small influence of its heat conservation property on the reduction of heating capacity, it is recommended to just improve walls. Air tightness of window is more effective than thermal quality.

TRNSYS simulation software was used to modify a validated Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) model in an Archetype Sustainable House (ASH) in Toronto. In this model, a Building Integrated Photovoltaic-Thermal Collector (BIPV/T) was coupled with ASHP. The PV/T system arrangement was considered as a part of the south-oriented roof of the house. The warm air generated in the BIPV/T collector was considered the source of the heat pump for heat production. The coupling of BIPV/T and ASHP enables a highly efficient heating system in harsh winter conditions. The developed TRNSYS model of the house along with integrated PV/T system with ASHP was simulated for the whole year to predict the hourly outlet air temperature, thermal energy and electricity obtained from the PV/T array. The results from the simulation were used to estimate the saving in energy and cost as well as to predict the electricity related GHG emission reduction potential from the PV panels. Monthly greenhouse gas (GHG) emission credit from PV production based on hourly GHG emission factor was obtained; the results showed that annual GHG emission due to electricity demand by the ASHP was reduced by 225 kg CO2 (19.3%) when the heat pump was integrated with the PV/T array. Also, in this study, the annual electricity cost credit from PV production based on Time-of-Use (TOU) and the reduction in electricity cost of the heat pump when connected with PV/T systems was calculated and compared with the cost of working the heat pump alone. The results show that there is a saving of $500 in annual electricity bills and GHG emission credit of 862.6 kg CO2 from renewable electricity generation.

The Sobrato Early Academic Language (SEAL) Model Research and Evaluation Final Report is comprised of three sets of studies that took place between 2015 and 2019 to examine the effectiveness of the SEAL Model in 67 schools within 12 districts across the state of California. Over a decade ago, the Sobrato Family Foundation responded to the enduring opportunity gaps and low academic outcomes for the state’s 1.2 million English Learners by investing in the design of the SEAL Model. The SEAL PreK–Grade 3 Model was created as a whole-school initiative to develop students’ language, literacy, and academic skills. The pilot study revealed promising findings, and the large-scale implementation of SEAL was launched in 2013. This report addresses a set of research questions and corresponding studies focused on: 1) the perceptions of school and district-level leaders regarding district and school site implementation of the SEAL Model, 2) teachers’ development and practices, and 3) student outcomes. The report is organized in five sections, within which are twelve research briefs that address the three areas of study. Technical appendices are included in each major section. A developmental evaluation process with mixed methods research design was used to answer the research questions. Key findings indicate that the implementation of the SEAL Model has taken root in many schools and districts where there is evidence of systemic efforts or instructional improvement for the English Learners they serve. In regards to teachers’ development and practices, there were statistically significant increases in the use of research-based practices for English Learners. Teachers indicated a greater sense of efficacy in addressing the needs of this population and believe the model has had a positive impact on their knowledge and skills to support the language and literacy development of PreK- Grade 3 English Learners. Student outcome data reveal that despite SEAL schools averaging higher rates of poverty compared to the statewide rate, SEAL English Learners in grades 2–4 performed comparably or better than California English Learners in developing their English proficiency; additional findings show that an overwhelming majority of SEAL students are rapidly progressing towards proficiency thus preventing them from becoming long-term English Learners. English Learners in bilingual programs advanced in their development of Spanish, while other English Learners suffered from language loss in Spanish. The final section of the report provides considerations and implications for further SEAL replication, sustainability, additional research and policy.

The CAD/BIM Technology Center receives numerous questions throughout the year regarding the development of a Record Package that shows as-built conditions. While the Center does produce Standards on the look and organization of CAD drawings that are used to show as-built conditions, users wanted guidance on the Record Package development. The Chicago District had undertaken the development of such guidance, but a formal document was never officially released. The CAD/BIM Community of Practice (CoP) Work Structure Committee finished this guidance and their efforts are reflected in this document.

Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paper aggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countries and territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Google search volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g., 2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countries with lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertility rates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levels of future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct the role that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions by incorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-quality framework à la Becker.

This report presents the results of RTI International Education’s study on teachers' guides across 13 countries and 19 projects. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we examine how teachers’ guides across the projects differ and find substantial variation in the design and structure of the documents. We develop a scripting index so that the scripting levels of the guides can be compared across projects. The impact results of the programs that use teachers’ guides show significant impacts on learning outcomes, associated with approximately an additional half year of learning, showing that structured teachers’ guides contribute to improved learning outcomes. During observations, we find that teachers make a variety of changes in their classroom instruction from how the guides are written, showing that the utilization of structured teachers’ guides do not create robotic teachers unable to use their own professional skills to teach children. Unfortunately, many changes that teachers make reduce the amount of group work and interactivity that was described in the guides, suggesting that programs should encourage teachers to more heavily utilize the instructional routines designed in the guide. The report includes a set of research-based guidelines that material developers can use to develop teachers’ guides that will support effective instructional practices and help improve learning outcomes. The key takeaway from the report is that structured teachers' guides improve learning outcomes, but that overly scripted teachers' guides are somewhat less effective than simplified teachers' guides that give specific guidance to the teacher but are not written word for word for each lesson in the guide.

This research paper provides a regional review of the state of electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), focusing on installed capacity, electricity generation, the growth of renewable energy, electricity consumption, government investment, public financial flows, and several major initiatives. The study contrasts electrification between 1990 and 2010 with recent efforts and identifies countries that are consistently making progress and those that lag. The analyses show signs of progress on scaling up SSA power infrastructure and increasing electricity access, particularly in the Eastern and Western sub-regions. The installed generation capacity expanded at an average rate of 2.43 GW/year between 2005 and 2015. Renewable energy is growing, particularly solar, wind, and geothermal; about 9.7 GW of renewable energy capacity was installed between 2010 and 2016. Over this period, the net electricity generation in SSA increased at 9.1 TWh/year, more than double the historical average growth of 4.02 TWh/year (1990–2010). In general, the study found that rates of electrification across the entire region are more than twice the historical rates, and an average of at least 26 million people are now gaining access to electricity yearly. Nevertheless, progress is uneven across SSA. As of 2016, almost half of the population without electricity access live in Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. Quantitative analysis suggests that about 70 million people in SSA would have to gain access every year from 2017 to achieve universal access by 2030. Overall, SSA countries with national programs on energy access supported by policy/regulatory framework and infrastructure investment are making progress.

Purpose & Significance: Despite the popularity of lottery and scratchcards and some evidence of gambling problems among players, limited research focuses on the risks of lottery and scratchcard play and predictors of problems, especially among young people. The purpose of this project is to examine whether lottery and scratchcard participation is related to gambling problems among 16-24 year olds in Great Britain and whether general and mental health and gambling behaviours explain this relationship. Methodology: Samples of 16-24 year olds were pooled from the 2012, 2015, and 2016 Gambling in England and Scotland: Combined Data from the Health Survey for England and the Scottish Health Survey (n=3,454). Bivariate analyses and Firth method logistic regression were used to examine the relationship between past-year lottery and scratchcard participation and gambling problems, assessing the attenuating role of mental wellbeing, mental health disorders, self-assessed general health, and playing other games in past year. Results: There is a significant association between scratchcard play and gambling problems. The association somewhat attenuated but remained significant after taking into account wellbeing, mental health disorders, general health, and engagement in other gambling activities. Findings also show that gambling problems are further predicted by age (20-24 years), gender (male), lower wellbeing, and playing any other gambling games. Implications: Results are valuable for informing youth-focused education, decisions around the legal age for National Lottery products, and the development of safer gambling initiatives for high risk groups and behaviours, such as scratchcard play.

This Coastal and Hydraulics Engineering Technical Note (CHETN) documents the development through verification and validation of three instability-suppressing mechanisms in FUNWAVE-TVD, a Boussinesq-type numerical wave model, when modeling deep-draft vessels with a low under-keel clearance (UKC). Many large commercial ports and channels (e.g., Houston Ship Channel, Galveston, US Army Corps of Engineers [USACE]) are traveled and affected by tens of thousands of commercial vessel passages per year. In a series of recent projects undertaken for the Galveston District (USACE), it was discovered that when deep-draft vessels are modeled using pressure-source mechanisms, they can suffer from model instabilities when low UKC is employed (e.g., vessel draft of 12 m¹ in a channel of 15 m or less of depth), rendering a simulation unstable and obsolete. As an increasingly large number of deep-draft vessels are put into service, this problem is becoming more severe. This presents an operational challenge when modeling large container-type vessels in busy shipping channels, as these often will come as close as 1 m to the bottom of the channel, or even touch the bottom. This behavior would subsequently exhibit a numerical discontinuity in a given model and could severely limit the sample size of modeled vessels. This CHETN outlines a robust approach to suppressing such instability without compromising the integrity of the far-field vessel wave/wake solution. The three methods developed in this study aim to suppress high-frequency spikes generated nearfield of a vessel. They are a shock-capturing method, a friction method, and a viscosity method, respectively. The tests show that the combined shock-capturing and friction method is the most effective method to suppress the local high-frequency noises, while not affecting the far-field solution. A strong test, in which the target draft is larger than the channel depth, shows that there are no high-frequency noises generated in the case of ship squat as long as the shock-capturing method is used.

In 2019, the Gambling Commission announced a National Strategy to Reduce Gambling Harms. Underlying the strategy is the Framework of Harms, outlined in Measuring gambling-related harms: A framework for action. "The Framework" adopts a public health approach to address gambling-related harm in Great Britain across multiple levels of measurement. It comprises three primary factors and nine related subfactors. To advance the National Strategy, all componentsneed to be supported by a strong evidence base. This report examines existing research expertise relevant to the Framework amongacademics based in the UK. The aim is to understand the extent to which the Framework factors and subfactors have been studied in order to identify gaps in expertise and provide evidence for decision making thatisrelevant to gambling harms research priorities. A social network analysis identified coauthor networks and alignment of research output with the Framework. The search strategy was limited to peer-reviewed items and covered the 12-year period from 2008 to 2019. Articles were selected using a Web of Science search. Of the 1417 records identified in the search, the dataset was refined to include only those articles that could be assigned to at least one Framework factor (n = 279). The primary factors and subfactors are: Resources:Work and Employment, Money and Debt, Crime;Relationships:Partners, Families and Friends, Community; and Health:Physical Health, Psychological Distress, and Mental Health. We used Gephi software to create visualisations reflecting degree centrality (number of coauthor networks) so that each factor and subfactor could be assessed for the density of research expertise and patterns of collaboration among coauthors. The findings show considerable variation by framework factor in the number of authors and collaborations, suggesting a need to develop additional research capacity to address under-researched areas. The Health factor subcategory of Mental Health comprised almost three-quarters of all citations, with the Resources factor subcategory of Money and Debt a distant second at 12% of all articles. The Relationships factor, comprised of two subfactors, accounted for less than 10%of total articles. Network density varied too. Although there were few collaborative networks in subfactors such as Community or Work and Employment, all Health subfactors showed strong levels of collaboration. Further, some subfactors with a limited number of researchers such as Partners, Families, and Friends and Money and debt had several active collaborations. Some researchers’ had publications that spanned multiple Framework factors. These multiple-factor researchers usually had a wide range of coauthors when compared to those who specialised (with the exception of Mental Health).Others’ collaborations spanned subfactors within a factor area. This was especially notable forHealth. The visualisations suggest that gambling harms research expertise in the UK has considerable room to grow in order to supporta more comprehensive, locally contextualised evidence base for the Framework. To do so, priority harms and funding opportunities will need further consideration. This will require multi-sector and multidisciplinary collaboration consistent with the public health approach underlying the Framework. Future research related to the present analysis will explore the geographic distribution of research activity within the UK, and research collaborations with harms experts internationally.

The French composer Francis Poulenc had a profound admiration and empathy for the writings of the Spanish poet Federico García Lorca. That empathy was rooted in shared aspects of the artistic temperament of the two figures but was also undoubtedly reinforced by Poulenc’s fellow-feeling on a human level. As someone who wrestled with his own homosexuality and who kept his orientation and his relationships apart from his public persona, Poulenc would have felt an instinctive affinity for a figure who endured similar internal conflicts but who, especially in his later life and poetry, was more open about his sexuality. Lorca paid a heavy price for this refusal to dissimulate; his arrest in August 1936 and his assassination the following day, probably by Nationalist militia, was accompanied by taunts from his killers about his sexuality. Everything about the Spanish poet’s life, his artistic affinities, his personal predilections and even the relationship between these and his death made him someone to whom Poulenc would be naturally drawn and whose untimely demise he would feel keenly and might wish to commemorate musically. Starting with the death of both his parents while he was still in his teens, reinforced by the sudden loss in 1930 of an especially close friend, confidante and kindred spirit, and continuing throughout the remainder of his life with the periodic loss of close friends, companions and fellow-artists, Poulenc’s life was marked by a succession of bereavements. Significantly, many of the dedications that head up his compositions are ‘to the memory of’ the individual named. As Poulenc grew older, and the list of those whom he had outlived lengthened inexorably, his natural tendency towards the nostalgic and the elegiac fused with a growing sense of what might be termed a ‘survivor’s anguish’, part of which he sublimated into his musical works. It should therefore come as no surprise that, during the 1940s, and in fulfilment of a desire that he had felt since the poet’s death, he should turn to Lorca for inspiration and, in the process, attempt his own act of homage in two separate works: the Violin Sonata and the ‘Trois Chansons de Federico García Lorca’. This exposition attempts to unfold aspects of the two men’s aesthetic pre-occupations and to show how the parallels uncovered cast reciprocal light upon their respective approaches to the creative process. It also examines the network of enfolded associations, musical and autobiographical, which link Poulenc’s two compositions commemorating Lorca, not only to one another but also to a wider circle of the composer’s works, especially his cycle setting poems of Guillaume Apollinaire: ‘Calligrammes’. Composed a year after the ‘Trois Chansons de Federico García Lorca’, this intricately wrought collection of seven mélodies, which Poulenc saw as the culmination of an intensive phase in his activity in this genre, revisits some of ‘unheard voices’ and ‘unseen shadows’ enfolded in its predecessor. It may be viewed, in part, as an attempt to bring to fuller resolution the veiled but keenly-felt anguish invoked by these paradoxical properties.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.