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Relevant bibliographies by topics / Horse race betting as an investment

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Academic literature on the topic 'Horse race betting as an investment'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 1 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Horse race betting as an investment"

1

Silverman, Noah, and Marc Suchard. "PREDICTING HORSE RACE WINNERS THROUGH A REGULARIZED CONDITIONAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION WITH FRAILTY." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 1 (April 30, 2013): 43–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i1.595.

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Conditional logistic regression has remained a mainstay in predicting horse racing out- comes since the 1980’s. In this paper, we propose and apply novel modifications of the regression model to include parameter regularization and a frailty contribution that exploits winning dividends. Additionally, the entire model was fit using state-of-the art parallelization methods on commodity graphical processing units. (GPU) The model is trained using 4 years of horse racing data from Hong Kong, and then tested on a hold-out year of races. Simulated betting produces a return on investment significantly higher than any other published methods involving Hong Kong races.

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Leslie Hopf, Craig George, and Gurudeo Anand Tularam. "A mathematical analysis of an exchange-traded horse race betting fund with deterministic payoff betting strategy for institutional investment to challenge EMH." Cogent Mathematics 2, no. 1 (June 29, 2015): 1057370. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23311835.2015.1057370.

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Barry, Daniel, and Caroline Lynch. "The minimax bookie: the two-horse case." Advances in Applied Probability 38, no. 4 (December 2006): 899–915. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0001867800001385.

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A bookmaker takes bets on a two-horse race, attempting to minimise expected loss over all possible outcomes of the race. Profits are controlled by manipulation of customers' betting behaviour, which is assumed to be determined uniquely by the price quoted for each horse. We consider different strategies for choosing these prices as bets accumulate, and examine the penalty incurred by the use of a strategy other than the optimal one, in the general case where the distribution of the customers' betting probabilities is unknown.

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Gramm, Marshall, C. Nicholas McKinney, and Randall E. Parker. "Late Money and Betting Market Efficiency: Evidence from Australia." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 10, no. 2 (October 28, 2016): 11–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v10i2.1246.

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This paper examines the empirical importance of late money on market efficiency in horse race gambling. Our inquiry into the effect of late money on parimutuel pools uses data from Australian thoroughbred horse races over the entire 2006 racing season and includes every race at all thoroughbred tracks. This amounts to 14,854 races with an average of 10.37 starters per race. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the hypotheses that late money is smart money and late money improves market efficiency.

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Humphreys, Brad, and Brian P. Soebbing. "DOES INTERNATIONAL SIMULCAST WAGERING REDUCE LIVE HANDLE AT CANADIAN RACETRACKS?" Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 6, no. 3 (March 26, 2013): 47–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v6i3.612.

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Consumer interest in horse racing has declined significantly in North America. In an attempt to reverse this decline, additional gambling opportunities, including simulcast betting, have been added at race tracks. This paper investigates the impact of simulcast betting on live racing handle at Canadian horse racetracks. Using data from the 18 largest Canadian racetracks over the period 1999 through 2006, IV results indicate that increases in remote wagering opportunities in Canada lead to small positive increases in live handle. Simulcast betting opportunities do not cannibalize live wagering, rather they increase live wagering.

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Saastamoinen, Jani, and Niko Suhonen. "Does betting experience matter in sequential risk taking in horse race wagering?" Economics and Business Letters 7, no. 4 (November 23, 2018): 137. http://dx.doi.org/10.17811/ebl.7.4.2018.137-143.

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This paper examines how betting experience is associated with horse race bettors’ sequential risk taking. We use an individual-level data set of 5,217 individual bettors with 167,816 betting-related transactions. Our analyses suggest that inexperienced bettors take on more risk than experienced bettors do after they experience gains. We also find some indication that experienced bettors become more risk averse than inexperienced ones after incurring losses.

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Kacapyr, Elia. "THE EFFICIENCY OF PARI-MUTUEL BETTING IN STANDARDBRED RACING." Journal of Prediction Markets 5, no. 1 (December 19, 2012): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v5i1.482.

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This paper investigates stylized facts about pari-mutuel betting. Standardbred racing at The Meadowlands Racetrack on Friday and Saturday nights is analyzed to determine if bettors in this particular venue are efficient. In addition, adages concerning horse racing, such as the favorite wins 33 percent of time, are tested. Finally, a logistic regression is employed to determine if characteristics of a race, such as the amount of the purse, can help determine if the favorite horse is more likely to win the race.

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Schnytzer, Adi, and Avichai Snir. "SP Betting as a Self-Enforcing Implicit Cartel." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 2, no. 1 (January 2, 2013): 45–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v2i1.524.

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A large share of the UK off-course horse racing betting market involves winning payouts determined at Starting Prices (SP). This implies that gamblers can bet with off-course bookies on any horse before a race at the final pre-race odds as set by on-course bookies for that horse.Given the oligopolistic structure of the off-course gambling market in the UK, a market that is dominated by a small number of large bookmaking firms, we study the phenomenon of SP as a type of self-enforcing implicit collusion. We show that given the uncertainty about a race outcome, and their ability to influence the prices set by on-course bookies, agreeing to lay bets at SP is superior for off-course bookies as compared with offering fixed odds. We thus extend the results of Rotemberg and Saloner (1990) to markets with uncertainty about both demand and outcomes,We test our model by studying the predicted effects of SP betting on the behavior of on-course bookies. Using data drawn from both the UK and Australian on-course betting markets, we show that the differences between these markets are consistent with the predicted effects of SP betting in the UK off-course market and its absence from the Australian market.

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Tutiya, Yohei, and Kazutaka Kurihara. "Parimutuel system of the Japanese race track: Voting and ranking process." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 9, no. 2 (October 6, 2015): 27–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v9i2.986.

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We investigated a time series of betting rates in a pari-mutuel betting system of Japanese horse races. Principal component analyses and cluster analyses suggest that the level of expectation for the favorite is the most important factor when classifying races. The dataset of the odds determined before the races used in this study is exceedingly large and detailed compared to previous studies. We also conducted detailed research on whether bets placed on the favorites tend to be concentrated just before the race.

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Crafts, N. F. R. "Some Evidence of Insider Knowledge in Horse Race Betting in Britain." Economica 52, no. 207 (August 1985): 295. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2553853.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Horse race betting as an investment"

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Twomey, Paul. "Market efficiency of horse-race betting markets with applications to spread betting." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.483596.

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Smith, Michael Anthony. "Information efficiency in markets for state contingent claims : a study of British horse race betting." Thesis, Nottingham Trent University, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.441475.

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The thesis reports a major empirical analysis of information efficiency in UK horse race betting markets. A range of tests for weak- and semi-strong efficiency in bookmaker and betting exchange markets was performed, in relation to a dataset of bookmaker data for 500 races; and a further dataset of matched bookmaker and exchange odds for 700 races. Final bookmaker odds were found to be semi-strong efficient in respect of media forecast information, although evidence of semi-strong and weak-form inefficiencies was found in respect of early morning odds. A transaction cost/information model of the favourite-Iongshot bias was tested in relation to matched exchange and bookmaker data. Employing the Shin's z measure, the empirical validity of this model was confirmed, with bias found to be greater in bookmaker markets than in the exchanges. In both markets bias was found to be inversely related to the amount of information publicly available to bettors about the horses competing in races. Further, it was shown that the transaction cost/information model explained bias in the sample better than risk preference theories, and was also able to account for previous findings of bias in a range of market contexts. Employing a conditional logistic regression model, betting exchange odds adjusted for bias were found to be better predictors of race outcomes than the corresponding bookmaker odds, contrary to previous empirical results. The contradiction was explained in terms of the different composition of market traders in the respective markets studied. Finally, evidence of profitable returns to a quasi-arbitrage trading strategy employed to exploit weak-form inefficiencies, arising from the existence of parallel sets of odds, was reported. A number of potential further research opportunities arise from the thesis, not least in respect of insider trading activity, an issue which was not directly addressed by the current research.

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Shing, Hui-Fai. "A Microeconomic Evaluation of the Favourite-Longshot Bias, Market Movers, and Broken Odds in British Horse Race Betting Markets." Thesis, Royal Holloway, University of London, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.487310.

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This empirical and theoretical investigation into betting markets provides more evidence on the issue of the favourite-Iongshot bias, the nature of movers in betting markets and the impact of broken odds using a dataset which contains information on every race ofthe 2003 flat racing season. In the first chapter, the favourite-Iongshot bias is examined for different classes of horse races under the premiserlhat insider information (a cause for the existence of the bias) will playa larger role in lower class races. The evidence suggests that the bias exists for the 2003 data and that the odds quoted at the cessation of the market are more accurate than those quoted at the formation of the market. There is evidence of a stronger bias in the lower class races, but only for odds quoted at the formation of the market. The second chapter pursues an unanswered question posed by the first chapter which is also not flilly covered by the existing literature: how accurate are market moves? It is only known that the post-move odds are more accurate. The linear probability model from the first chapter is adapted to investigate the accuracy of market movers and yields the result that market moves are accurate on average. Finally, the issue of broken odds is examined as a possible cause of the favouritelongshot bias observed in the earlier chapters. The third chapter contributes to the literature by providing the first theoretical treatment on broken odds. The conditions derived suggest that for pari-mutuel markets the nature of the dividends returned due to breakage will cause returns to exhibit the phenomenon of a reverse favouritelongshot bias. For bookmaker markets, the nature of the quoted odds will cause a favourite-Iongshot bias, but not enough to account for all of the bias observed in the data.

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Books on the topic "Horse race betting as an investment"

1

Thoroughbred handicapping as an investment: A professional approach to betting thoroughbreds. Los Angeles, Calif: Cynthia Pub. Co., 1986.

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2

Mitchell, Dick. Winning thoroughbred strategies. New York: W. Morrow, 1989.

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3

Race profiles: Flat 2010. Newbury: Raceform, 2010.

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4

Braddock, Peter. Braddock's complete guide to horse-race selection and betting: With statistical information by 'Racing Post'. 3rd ed. Harlow: Longman, 1990.

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5

Braddock's complete guide to horse-race selection and betting: With statistical information by 'Trainers record'. 2nd ed. Harlow: Longman, 1987.

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6

Godfrey, John M. Argument of Mr. John M. Godfrey on an investigation conducted by Dr. Rutherford, the commissioner appointed by the Dominion government to investigate racing and race-track gambling. Toronto: Social Service Council of Canada, 1996.

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7

Waterman, Jack. The punter's friend: A guide to betting. London: Macdonald, 1987.

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8

Simpson, Stewart. Always back winners. Chorley: Pride of Place Publishing, 1993.

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9

Waterman, Jack. The punter's friend: A guide to racing and betting. Harpenden: Queen Anne Press, 1994.

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10

Border, Denny L. Wire 'em and win: Turning thoroughbred selections into race betting profits. Phoenix, Ariz: Winrose Pub., 1995.

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Book chapters on the topic "Horse race betting as an investment"

1

Mori, Shintaro, and Masato Hisakado. "How Betters Vote in Horse Race Betting Market." In Agent-Based Social Systems, 205–16. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7194-2_13.

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Gallagher, Michael. "The election as horse race: betting and the election." In How Ireland Voted 2007, 148–66. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230597990_9.

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ISAACS, RUFUS. "OPTIMAL HORSE RACE BETS." In Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 93–97. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812819192_0013.

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"The Domestication of Horse Race Betting." In Off-Track and Online. The MIT Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8214.003.0007.

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GRIFFITH, RICHARD M. "A FOOTNOTE ON HORSE RACE BETTING." In Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 27–30. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812819192_0005.

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6

Kruse, Holly. "The Domestication of Horse Race Betting." In Off-Track and Online, 129–48. The MIT Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9780262034418.003.0006.

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GRIFFITH, R. M. "ODDS ADJUSTMENTS BY AMERICAN HORSE-RACE BETTORS." In Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 9–13. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812819192_0003.

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8

Benter, William. "Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report." In Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 183–98. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812819192_0019.

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9

Crafts, N. F. R. "Winning Systems?: Some Further Evidence on Insiders and Outsiders in British Horse Race Betting." In Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets, 545–49. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812819192_0053.

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10

Sung, M., and J. E. V. Johnson. "Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets." In Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets, 275–306. Elsevier, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-044450744-0.50017-2.

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Conference papers on the topic "Horse race betting as an investment"

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Backe, Pål, Anita Andersen, Thomas Plagemann, and Anders Spilling. "Mobile services for horse-race betting." In the 2nd international conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1374296.1374342.

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