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Journal articles on the topic 'Horse race model'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 December 2022

Last updated: 28 January 2023

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1

Bugislaus, A. E., R. Roehe, H. Uphaus, and E. Kalm. "Development of genetic models for estimation of racing performances in German thoroughbreds." Archives Animal Breeding 47, no. 6 (2004): 505–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/aab-47-505-2004.

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Abstract. The objective of this study was to develop new statistical models for genetic estimation of racing performances in German thoroughbreds. Analysed performance traits were "square root of rank at finish", "square root of distance to first placed horse in a race" and "log of earnings". These traits were found to be influenced by the carried weight, which was determined by the horse's earlier performance. Therefore, new traits were developed based on random regression models, which were independent from the carried weights. Heritabilities were first estimated for these created traits "ne

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2

Mercier, Quentin, and Amandine Aftalion. "Optimal speed in Thoroughbred horse racing." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (2020): e0235024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235024.

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The objective of this work is to provide a mathematical analysis on how a Thoroughbred horse should regulate its speed over the course of a race to optimize performance. Because Thoroughbred horses are not capable of running the whole race at top speed, determining what pace to set and when to unleash the burst of speed is essential. Our model relies on mechanics, energetics (both aerobic and anaerobic) and motor control. It is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations on the velocity, the propulsive force and the anaerobic energy, that leads to an optimal control problem that we sol

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3

Williams, J. M., D. M. Marlin, N. Langley, T. D. Parkin, and H. Randle. "The Grand National: a review of factors associated with non-completion and horse-falls, 1990 to 2012." Comparative Exercise Physiology 9, no. 3-4 (2013): 131–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/cep13013.

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The Grand National (GN) attracts high profile press and subsequent public attention. This study aimed to establish if factors influential to non-completion, horse-falls and specific fence risk in the GN supported the measures implemented by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) to improve equine welfare in the GN. Horse, jockey, trainer and race related factors associated with non-completion, horse-falls and horse-falls at specific fences of the GN were collated over a 22 year period from 1990 to 2012. Descriptive analysis calculated non-completion rates per year, according to age and reason

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Mata, F., J. Williams, and F. Marks. "Investigation of factors associated with the probability of racehorses being pulled up in steeplechase races at Cheltenham racetrack." Comparative Exercise Physiology 8, no. 2 (2012): 95–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/cep12012.

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Limited research has been conducted to investigate the risk factors associated with horses being pulled up in steeplechase races. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with pulled up horses in steeplechase races at Cheltenham racecourse and utilise these to propose preventative strategies to reduce prospective risks of racehorses being pulled up in steeplechase races. Horse and racetrack factors that could be associated with an increased chance of horses being pulled up, extrapolated from previous research into racehorse falls and clinical injury, were identified and co

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Cervantes, Isabel, Juan Pablo Gutiérrez, Silvia García-Ballesteros, and Luis Varona. "Combining Threshold, Thurstonian and Classical Linear Models in Horse Genetic Evaluations for Endurance Competitions." Animals 10, no. 6 (2020): 1075. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani10061075.

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The racing time and rank at finish traits are commonly used for endurance horse breeding programs as a measure of their performance. Even so, given the nature of endurance competitions, many horses do not finish the race. However, the exclusion of non placed horses from the dataset could have an influence on the prediction of individual breeding values. The objective of the present paper was to develop a multitrait model including race time (T), rank (R) and placing (P), with different methodologies, to improve the genetic evaluation in endurance competitions in Spain. The database contained 6

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6

Smith, L. J., G. Tabor, and J. Williams. "A retrospective case control study to investigate race level risk factors associated with horse falls in Irish point-to-point races." Comparative Exercise Physiology 14, no. 2 (2018): 127–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/cep170034.

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Horseracing as a high-risk sport can pose a significant risk to equine welfare. To date no epidemiological reviews of fall risk in horseracing have investigated the risks specific to point-to-point (PTP) racing. This study aimed to identify the main race level risk factors associated with horse falls in Irish PTP and to compare these to published findings for hurdle and steeplechase racing. The study used a retrospective case-control design. Relevant variables were identified and information was collated for all PTP races in the 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons. Race-level variables were analysed t

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7

Tyrrell, Brian. "Bred for the Race." Historical Studies in the Natural Sciences 45, no. 4 (2015): 549–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/hsns.2015.45.4.549.

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In the first four decades of the twentieth century, horse racing was one of America’s most popular spectator sports. Members of America’s elite took to breeding and racing horses as one of their preferred pastimes. Coinciding with an increase in immigration and the rediscovery of Mendelian genetics, the idea that careful breeding of thoroughbreds would result in improved horses resonated with Americans worried about racial degeneration. Scientists committed to racial ideologies looked to thoroughbreds—whose owners and breeders maintained extensive pedigree records—to understand the science of

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8

Band, Guido P. H., Maurits W. van der Molen, and Gordon D. Logan. "Horse-race model simulations of the stop-signal procedure." Acta Psychologica 112, no. 2 (2003): 105–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0001-6918(02)00079-3.

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9

Holopainen, Markus, and Peter Sarlin. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty." Quantitative Finance 17, no. 12 (2017): 1933–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2017.1357972.

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10

Despons, Armand, Luca Peliti, and David Lacoste. "Adaptive strategies in Kelly’s horse races model." Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2022, no. 9 (2022): 093405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ac8e58.

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Abstract We formulate an adaptive version of Kelly’s horse model in which the gambler learns from past race results using Bayesian inference. We characterize the cost of this gambling strategy and we analyze the asymptotic scaling of the difference between the growth rate of the gambler and the optimal growth rate, known as the gambler’s regret. We also explain how this adaptive strategy relates to the universal portfolio strategy, and we build improved adaptive strategies in which the gambler exploits the information contained in the bookmaker odds distribution.

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11

Araneda, Oscar F. "Horse Racing as a Model to Study the Relationship between Air Pollutants and Physical Performance." Animals 12, no. 9 (2022): 1139. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani12091139.

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This study proposes the theoretical principles for the selection of a sample of horse races to study the relationship between air pollutants and performance. These criteria were then applied to an original dataset comparing the correlations between these variables obtained in “Handicap” versus “Conditional” type races. Methods: The mean concentration of pollutants during the six hours prior to the race and the speed of the test were determined in 441 official races at a racecourse in Santiago, Chile, during the summer and winter months of 2012. Using layout, track condition and distance (1000,

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12

FRIEDMAN, CRAIG, and SVEN SANDOW. "MODEL PERFORMANCE MEASURES FOR LEVERAGED INVESTORS." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 07, no. 05 (2004): 541–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024904002530.

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We measure the performance of probabilistic models from a decision-theoretic perspective along the lines of Friedman and Sandow [6]. In particular, we adopt the point of view of an investor who evaluates models based on the test-sample averaged utility of the expected-utility-optimal strategies that the models suggest in the horse race setting. In this paper, we relax the assumptions of Friedman and Sandow [6]: we omit the notion of a "true" measure and we allow our investor to withhold or borrow cash, which widens the range of possible applications. We show that, in this setting, our relative

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13

Smith, L. J., G. Tabor, and J. Williams. "A retrospective case-control study to investigate horse and jockey level risk factors associated with horse falls in Irish Point-to-Point races." Comparative Exercise Physiology 16, no. 3 (2020): 225–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/cep190054.

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Horse racing as a high-risk sport can pose a significant risk to equine welfare. There have been limited epidemiological reviews of fall risk specific to point-to-point racing. This study aimed to identify horse and jockey level risk factors associated with horse falls and compare these to published findings for Hurdle and Steeplechase racing. The study used a retrospective matched case-control design. Relevant variables were identified, and information was collated for all races in the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 seasons. Cases and controls were matched with a 1:3 ratio. Controls (n=2,547) were s

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14

Piccione, Giuseppe, Claudia Giannetto, Daniele Bruschetta, Fulvio Congiu, Francesca Arfuso, and Elisabetta Giudice. "Influence of exercise and dietary omega-3 oil supplementation on interleukin 1-Ra serum concentrations in Standardbred horses." Animal Production Science 59, no. 2 (2019): 232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/an16310.

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In this study, the influence of fish oil eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid supplementation on serum interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) concentrations was evaluated in horses subjected to a regular racing program. IL-1Ra is an anti-inflammatory protein. It binds to IL-1 receptors blocking the attachment of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Ten regularly trained Standardbred horses (6 geldings and 4 mares, 4–5 years old, mean bodyweight 500 ± 25 kg) were used. They were randomly divided in two equal groups. The experimental group received a supplementation of 70 mL of fish oil (Om

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15

Silverman, Noah, and Marc Suchard. "PREDICTING HORSE RACE WINNERS THROUGH A REGULARIZED CONDITIONAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION WITH FRAILTY." Journal of Prediction Markets 7, no. 1 (2013): 43–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v7i1.595.

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Conditional logistic regression has remained a mainstay in predicting horse racing out- comes since the 1980’s. In this paper, we propose and apply novel modifications of the regression model to include parameter regularization and a frailty contribution that exploits winning dividends. Additionally, the entire model was fit using state-of-the art parallelization methods on commodity graphical processing units. (GPU) The model is trained using 4 years of horse racing data from Hong Kong, and then tested on a hold-out year of races. Simulated betting produces a return on investment significantl

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16

JONDEAU, ERIC, and MICHAEL ROCKINGER. "Predicting Long‐Term Financial Returns: VAR versus DSGE Model—A Horse Race." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51, no. 8 (2018): 2239–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12586.

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17

Silverman, Noah. "A HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF HORSE RACING." Journal of Prediction Markets 6, no. 3 (2013): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v6i3.590.

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Horse racing is the most popular sport in Hong Kong. Nowhere else in the world is such attention paid to the races and such large sums of money bet. It is literally a “national sport”. Popular literature has many stories about computerized “betting teams” winning fortunes by using statistical analysis.[1] Additionally, numerous academic papers have been published on the subject, implementing a variety of statistical methods. The academic justiﬁcation for these papers is that a parimutuel game represents a study in decisions under uncertainty, eﬃciency of markets, and even investor psychology.

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18

Legg, Kylie A., Erica K. Gee, Darryl J. Cochrane, and Chris W. Rogers. "Preliminary Examination of the Biological and Industry Constraints on the Structure and Pattern of Thoroughbred Racing in New Zealand over Thirteen Seasons: 2005/06–2017/18." Animals 11, no. 10 (2021): 2807. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani11102807.

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This study aimed to examine thirteen seasons of flat racing starts (n = 388,964) in the context of an ecological system and identify metrics that describe the inherent characteristics and constraints of the New Zealand Thoroughbred racing industry. During the thirteen years examined, there was a 2–3% per year reduction in the number of races, starts and number of horses. There was a significant shift in the racing population with a greater number of fillies (aged 2–4 years) having a race start, and subsequent longer racing careers due to the inclusion of one more racing preparation post 2008 (

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19

THUNEBERG-SELONEN, T., J. PÖSÖ, and E. MÄNTYSAARI. "Use of individual race results in the estimation of genetic parameters of trotting performance for Finnhorse and Standardbred trotters." Agricultural and Food Science 8, no. 4-5 (1999): 353–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.5635.

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The heritability and repeatability for trotting performance traits were estimated from individual race results. Data comprised of records from 1991 to 1995 for 4808 Finnhorses and from 1993 to 1995 for 5869 Standardbred trotters. The statistical model included the additive genetic effect of an animal and two permanent environmental effects, and the fixed effects of sex, age, starting method*starting lane combination, driver and race. The first permanent environmental effect described repeatability over a horses career while the second one characterized repeatability within a racing year. Vari

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20

Giontella, Andrea, Francesca Maria Sarti, Giovanni Paolo Biggio, et al. "Elo Method and Race Traits: A New Integrated System for Sport Horse Genetic Evaluation." Animals 10, no. 7 (2020): 1145. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani10071145.

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This first survey on Sardinian Anglo-Arab horse (SAA) race traits highlights important aspects for the breeding purpose of this population. The heritability of the race traits were estimated through a trivariate model; the estimates were 0.39, 0.33, and 0.30 for the number of placings, total earnings and Elo rating, respectively. The genetic progress could be improved by using an MT genetic evaluation of stallions and mares, combining information from competition traits.

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21

Hoff, Philipp Heinrich. "Are the odds odd? Positive return evidence in German horse race betting." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 7, no. 2 (2013): 19–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v7i2.585.

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The article deals with the question, if odds derived from the behavior of bettors in a pari-mutuel setting really reflect the chances of winning for a particular horse in a particular race. Using a unique data set with more than 46,000 race observations from Germany for the years 2001 to 2003 the paper presents evidence on the favorite long-shot bias, evaluates the predictive power of totalizator odds, uses a binary logistic regression model to predict probabilities of winning and finally suggests three wagering strategies that actually yield positive returns in a hold-out oriented analytical

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22

Borneman, John. "Race, Ethnicity, Species, Breed: Totemism and Horse-Breed Classification in America." Comparative Studies in Society and History 30, no. 1 (1988): 25–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0010417500015036.

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Totem: the iconic representation of a specific ordering of plant and animal species. Clan: the representation of a group identity. Totemism: the relationship between totem and clan. From Emile Durkheim and his nineteenthcentury antecedents to Claude Lévi-Strauss, the discussion of totemism has addressed the way in which people classify themselves with reference to the animal and plant world. This discussion began with the observation among different exotic peoples of the widespread practice of arranging certain animal and plant species into a pattern that, while differing from culture to cultu

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23

Ahmed, Shamim, Ziwen Bu, and Daniel Tsvetanov. "Best of the Best: A Comparison of Factor Models." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 54, no. 4 (2018): 1713–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109018000947.

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We compare major factor models and find that the Stambaugh and Yuan (2016) 4-factor model is the overall winner in the time-series domain. The Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) q-factor model takes second place and the Fama and French (2015) 5-factor model and the Barillas and Shanken (2018) 6-factor model jointly take third place. The pairwise cross-sectional R2 and the multiple model comparison tests show that the Hou et al. (2015) q-factor model, the Fama and French (2015) 5-factor and 4-factor models, and the Barillas and Shanken (2018) 6-factor model take equal first place in the horse race.

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24

Zhang, Shuang. "Optimal Model of Horse Racing Competition Decision Management Based on Association Rules and Neural Network." Scientific Programming 2022 (March 11, 2022): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4240244.

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With the vigorous development of horse racing, people’s attention to horse racing has increased significantly. Some experts and scholars have conducted research on the decision-making management and predictive analysis methods of horse racing. Today, with the rapid development of information technology, the amount of data and data dimensions of horse racing competitions continue to explode. The increase in data scale and feature dimensions provides new challenges for competition management and competition prediction research. At present, traditional prediction algorithms can no longer meet the

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TAN, CHARLIE IRAWAN, CHANG-MIN CHEN, WEN-KAI TAI, and CHIN-CHEN CHANG. "PATH PLANNING FOR RACING GAMES." International Journal on Artificial Intelligence Tools 19, no. 05 (2010): 679–702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218213010000364.

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We propose a set of path planning tools including path generator, cost map generator, and path editor for racing games. The user can define the race by providing a racetrack as a 3D model and weights of the devised turn and heuristic functions in our system. Then, the proposed cost map generator automatically generates necessary information of the racetrack including cost map and distance to finish of any position on the race track. Different from the traditional A* problem, in our research the obstacles are dynamic and there are multiple sources and destinations. Our approach generates the pa

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Searles, Kathleen, and Kevin K. Banda. "But her emails! How journalistic preferences shaped election coverage in 2016." Journalism 20, no. 8 (2019): 1052–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1464884919845459.

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While existing work explains how journalists use news values to select some stories over others, we know little about how stories that meet newsworthiness criteria are prioritized. Once stories are deemed newsworthy, how do journalists calculate their relative utility? Such an ordering of preferences is important as higher ranked stories receive more media attention. To better understand how stories are ordered once they are selected, we propose a model for rational journalistic preferences which describes how journalists rank stories by making cost-benefit analyses. When faced with competing

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27

Lea, Stephen E. G., Pizza Ka Yee Chow, Christina Meier, Ian P. L. McLaren, and Frederick Verbruggen. "Pigeons’ performance in a tracking change-signal procedure is consistent with the independent horse-race model." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Learning and Cognition 45, no. 4 (2019): 464–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xan0000219.

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28

Permana, Yudistira, Giovanni Van Empel, and Rimawan Pradiptyo. "Investigation of the Stochastic Choice under Risk using Experimental Data." Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business 22, no. 2 (2020): 137. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.34446.

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This paper extends the analysis of the data from the experiment undertaken by Pradiptyo et al. (2015), to help explain the subjects’ behaviour when making decisions under risk. This study specifically investigates the relative empirical performance of the two general models of the stochastic choice: the random utility model (RUM) and the random preference model (RPM) where this paper specifies these models using two preference functionals, expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU). The parameters are estimated in each model using a maximum likelihood technique and run a

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Schnytzer, Adi, and Avichai Snir. "SP Betting as a Self-Enforcing Implicit Cartel." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 2, no. 1 (2013): 45–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v2i1.524.

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A large share of the UK off-course horse racing betting market involves winning payouts determined at Starting Prices (SP). This implies that gamblers can bet with off-course bookies on any horse before a race at the final pre-race odds as set by on-course bookies for that horse.Given the oligopolistic structure of the off-course gambling market in the UK, a market that is dominated by a small number of large bookmaking firms, we study the phenomenon of SP as a type of self-enforcing implicit collusion. We show that given the uncertainty about a race outcome, and their ability to influence the

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Blott, Cunningham, Malkowski, Brown, and Rauch. "A Mechanogenetic Model of Exercise-Induced Pulmonary Haemorrhage in the Thoroughbred Horse." Genes 10, no. 11 (2019): 880. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/genes10110880.

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Exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage (EIPH) occurs in horses performing high-intensity athletic activity. The application of physics principles to derive a ‘physical model’, which is coherent with existing physiology and cell biology data, shows that critical parameters for capillary rupture are cell–cell adhesion and cell stiffness (cytoskeleton organisation). Specifically, length of fracture in the capillary is a ratio between the energy involved in cell–cell adhesion and the stiffness of cells suggesting that if the adhesion diminishes and/or that the stiffness of cells increases EIPH is

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31

Marley, A. A. J., and Hans Colonius. "The “horse race” random utility model for choice probabilities and reaction times, and its compering risks interpretation." Journal of Mathematical Psychology 36, no. 1 (1992): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(92)90050-h.

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Afonso, Armando dos Santos, Anna Carolina de Almeida Portugal, Ariane Leão Caldas, Luiz Renato Rodrigues Carreiro, and Walter Machado-Pinheiro. "Response inhibition in a new “Stroop-matching/stop-signal” protocol corroborates the assumptions predicted by the horse-race model." Psychology & Neuroscience 14, no. 2 (2021): 207–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pne0000217.

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Hervault, Mario, Raoul Huys, Jean-Christophe Buisson, Mathilde Francheteau, Perrine Siguier, and Pier-Giorgio Zanone. "To start or stop an action depends on which movement we perform: An appraisal of the horse–race model." Acta Psychologica 217 (June 2021): 103332. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2021.103332.

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Kannan, Aadharsh, Jacob LaRiviere, and R. Preston McAfee. "Characterizing the Usage Intensity of Public Cloud." ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 9, no. 3 (2021): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3456760.

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This article uses precise and novel data on country-level Cloud IaaS and PaaS revenue to measure the intensive margin of technology diffusion across countries and within countries over time. We horse race diffusion models and find that cloud diffusion exhibits both Log-Log and Logistic Growth patterns. We use cross validation on nearly 100 features to determine what correlates with cross-country differences. We find that increases in features impacting Gross Domestic Product, Internet Connectivity, and Human Capital are associated with increases in intensity of cloud adoption. We finally compa

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Hausmann, Daniel, and Damian Läge. "Sequential evidence accumulation in decision making: The individual desired level of confidence can explain the extent of information acquisition." Judgment and Decision Making 3, no. 3 (2008): 229–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500002436.

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AbstractJudgments and decisions under uncertainty are frequently linked to a prior sequential search for relevant information. In such cases, the subject has to decide when to stop the search for information. Evidence accumulation models from social and cognitive psychology assume an active and sequential information search until enough evidence has been accumulated to pass a decision threshold. In line with such theories, we conceptualize the evidence threshold as the “desired level of confidence” (DLC) of a person. This model is tested against a fixed stopping rule (one-reason decision makin

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JYLKKÄ, JUSSI, MINNA LEHTONEN, ANNA KUUSAKOSKI, FRED LINDHOLM, SUZANNE C. A. HUT, and MATTI LAINE. "The role of general executive functions in receptive language switching and monitoring." Bilingualism: Language and Cognition 21, no. 4 (2017): 839–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1366728917000384.

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We assessed language switch and mixing costs in a language-general semantic categorization task and examined how these costs relate to general inhibition and set shifting capacities. The participants were 51 native Finnish subjects with English as L2. The results showed significant symmetric language switch costs and, unexpectedly, a mixing advantage in L2: reaction times were faster in the mixed language block than in the single language block. The interactions with the general executive functions showed no consistent overall pattern. We argue that the L2 mixing advantage stems from statistic

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Muecke, Frances. "ANTE OCULOS PONERE:VISION AND IMAGINATION IN FLAVIO BIONDO'SROMA TRIUMPHANS." Papers of the British School at Rome 79 (October 31, 2011): 275–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0068246211000079.

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This article examines two ekphrastic digressions from book 2 of Flavio Biondo'sRoma Triumphans(1459), both occurring in the section on the festivals of ancient Rome. The first is an eye-witness account of a celebration mounted in Piazza Navona in Rome to mark the defeat of the Turks at Belgrade in 1456; the second is an imaginative recreation of the horse race at the Equirria, as Biondo envisions it taking place in the streetscape of ancient Rome. Both digressions serve one of Biondo's most important purposes, the linking of ancient and modern Rome. The aim of the discussion is to demonstrate

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Brady, Henry E. "Knowledge, Strategy, and Momentum in Presidential Primaries." Political Analysis 5 (1993): 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/5.1.1.

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Two dynamic rational choice models of primaries are analyzed that demonstrate both reformers and their critics are right about primaries. Primaries can provide public instruction and a better informed electorate, and they can be poorly designed lotteries: A “recognition” and learning model describes how changing media coverage affects voters' knowledge about candidates and their subsequent voting behavior. A “strategic” voting model describes the dynamic implications of strategic voting and “horse-race” coverage by the media. We find that the recognition model has the normatively appealing dyn

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Seip, Knut Lehre, and Dan Zhang. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model." Forecasting 3, no. 2 (2021): 421–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020025.

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Previous studies have shown that the treasury yield curve, T, forecasts upcoming recessions when it obtains a negative value. In this paper, we try to improve the yield curve model while keeping its parsimony. First, we show that adding the federal funds rate, FF, to the model, GDP = f(T, FF), gives seven months vs. five months warning time, and it gives a higher prediction skill for the recessions in the out-of-sample test set. Second, we find that including the quadratic term of the yield curve and the federal funds rate improves the prediction of the 1990 recession, but not the other recess

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Bugislaus, A. E. "Genetic analysis of distance-dependent racing performances in German Thoroughbreds." Archives Animal Breeding 53, no. 6 (2010): 629–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/aab-53-629-2010.

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Abstract. The objective of this study was to develop a new multivariate statistical model for genetic estimation of distance-dependent racing performances in German Thoroughbreds. Analysed performance traits were »square root of distance to first placed horse in races over sprint distances (until 1 400 m)«, »square root of distance to first placed horse in races over mile distances (from 1 401 m to 1 900 m)« and »square root of distance to first placed horse in races over long distances (over 1 900 m)«. These traits were found to be influenced by the carried weight, which was determined by the

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Soltanifar, Mohsen, and Chel Hee Lee. "SimSST: An R Statistical Software Package to Simulate Stop Signal Task Data." Mathematics 11, no. 3 (2023): 500. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math11030500.

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The stop signal task (SST) paradigm with its original roots in 1948 has been proposed to study humans’ response inhibition. Several statistical software codes have been designed by researchers to simulate SST data in order to study various theories of modeling response inhibition and their assumptions. Yet, there has been a missing standalone statistical software package to enable researchers to simulate SST data under generalized scenarios. This paper presents the R statistical software package “SimSST”, available in Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), to simulate stop signal task (SST) d

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Cappelli, Katia, Samanta Mecocci, Silvia Gioiosa, et al. "Gallop Racing Shifts Mature mRNA towards Introns: Does Exercise-Induced Stress Enhance Genome Plasticity?" Genes 11, no. 4 (2020): 410. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/genes11040410.

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Physical exercise is universally recognized as stressful. Among the “sport species”, the horse is probably the most appropriate model for investigating the genomic response to stress due to the homogeneity of its genetic background. The aim of this work is to dissect the whole transcription modulation in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells (PBMCs) after exercise with a time course framework focusing on unexplored regions related to introns and intergenic portions. PBMCs NGS from five 3 year old Sardinian Anglo-Arab racehorses collected at rest and after a 2000 m race was performed. Apart from d

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Choe, Hyemin, Nayoung Hwang, Chankyoung Hwang, and Jongwoo Song. "Analysis of Horse Races: Prediction of Winning Horses in Horse Races Using Statistical Models." Korean Journal of Applied Statistics 28, no. 6 (2015): 1133–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/kjas.2015.28.6.1133.

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Williams, J. M., F. Marks, F. Mata, and T. Parkin. "A case control study to investigate risk factors associated with horse falls in steeplechase races at Cheltenham racetrack." Comparative Exercise Physiology 9, no. 1 (2013): 59–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/cep13005.

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To date epidemiological reviews of fall risk in horse racing have applied a general approach to analysis integrating different grades, type of race and various racetracks. This study aimed to investigate if increasing specificity in analysis (one course and type of race) would expose the same risk factors for horse falls. The purpose of the study was to apply the principles of epidemiology to predict factors that increase the risk of a horse falling in steeplechase races at Cheltenham racecourse. Relevant factors related to horse falls were identified and collated from the Racing Post website

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McGarry, Tim, Romeo Chua, and Ian M. Franks. "Stopping and Restarting an Unfolding Action at Various Times." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology Section A 56, no. 4 (2003): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02724980244000549.

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The ability to inhibit an unfolding action is usually investigated using a stop signal (or go—stop) task. The data from the stop-signal task are often described using a horse-race model whose key assumption is that each process (i.e., go, stop) exhibits stochastic independence. Using three variations of a coincident-timing task (i.e., go, go—stop, and go—stop—go) we extend previous considerations of stochastic independence by analysing the go latencies for prior effects of stopping. On random trials in the go—stop—go task the signal sweep was paused for various times at various distances befor

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Supriatna, Encep. "PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PERSEDIAAN OBAT MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FIRST IN FIRST OUT DI APOTEK AL MA’SOEM BANDUNG." INTERNAL (Information System Journal) 1, no. 1 (2018): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.32627/internal.v1i1.29.

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Al Ma'soem pharmacy headquartered at Jl. Horse Race No. 46 Arcamanik Bandung, currently has 17 branches of pharmacies spread across several cities and regencies in West Java, including Bandung, Sumedang, Majalengka, Garut, and Cianjur. Good governance system makes Apotek Al Ma'soem grow and develop rapidly in several cities and districts in West Java. In the sales system has been supported with adequate information technology, so that drug sales services can be done effectively. The method used to assess the supply of drugs in pharmacies is to use the last price method. The impact of the appli

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Supriatna, Encep. "PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PERSEDIAAN OBAT MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FIRST IN FIRST OUT DI APOTEK AL MA’SOEM BANDUNG." INTERNAL (Information System Journal) 1, no. 1 (2018): 19–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.32627/internal.v1i1.327.

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Al Ma'soem pharmacy headquartered at Jl. Horse Race No. 46 Arcamanik Bandung, currently has 17 branches of pharmacies spread across several cities and regencies in West Java, including Bandung, Sumedang, Majalengka, Garut, and Cianjur. Good governance system makes Apotek Al Ma'soem grow and develop rapidly in several cities and districts in West Java. In the sales system has been supported with adequate information technology, so that drug sales services can be done effectively. The method used to assess the supply of drugs in pharmacies is to use the last price method. The impact of the appli

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Voloshynov, Serhii A. "ЗАПРОВАДЖЕННЯ ЗМІШАНОГО НАВЧАННЯ У ПРОФЕСІЙНУ ПІДГОТОВКУ МАЙБУТНІХ ФАХІВЦІВ МОРСЬКОЇ ГАЛУЗІ". Information Technologies and Learning Tools 70, № 2 (2019): 104. http://dx.doi.org/10.33407/itlt.v70i2.2575.

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The author actualizes the problem of introducing blended learning in training process of future mariners. The conclusion that blended learning for marine specialists requires further theoretical reflection and practical implementation is based on the analysis and research of the use of digital technologies in the training of future mariners. The article describes the practical experience of blended learning use in the educational process of the Kherson State Maritime Academy (KSMA). It is noted that the competency approach is the methodological basis of blended learning, since the goal of futu

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Ali, Mukhtar M. "Probability models on horse-race outcomes." Journal of Applied Statistics 25, no. 2 (1998): 221–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664769823205.

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Erikson, Robert S., and Thomas R. Palfrey. "Equilibria in Campaign Spending Games: Theory and Data." American Political Science Review 94, no. 3 (2000): 595–609. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2585833.

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We present a formal game-theoretic model to explain the simultaneity problem that makes it difficult to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of both incumbent and challenger spending in U.S. House elections. The model predicts a particular form of correlation between the expected closeness of the race and the level of spending by both candidates, which implies that the simultaneity problem should not be present in close races and should be progressively more severe in the range of safe races that are empirically observed. This is confirmed by comparing simple OLS regression of races that a

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