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1
Jagger, Thomas H., and James B. Elsner. "Hurricane Clusters in the Vicinity of Florida." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 5 (May 2012): 869–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-0107.1.
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AbstractModels that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more hurricanes. The underdispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the coastline. The authors then develop an extension to their earlier statistical model that assumes that the rate of hurricane clusters follows a Poisson distribution with cluster size capped at two hurricanes. Hindcasts from the cluster model better fit the distribution of Florida hurricanes conditional on the climate covariates including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation index. Results are similar to models that parameterize the extra-Poisson variation in the observed counts, including the negative binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian models. The authors argue, however, that the cluster model is physically consistent with the way Florida hurricanes tend to arrive in groups.
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Salvatore, James J., Mark A. Ritenour, Brian T. Scully, and L. Gene Albrigo. "(91) Yield Recovery of Commercial Citrus Trees Impacted by the 2004 and 2005 Florida Hurricanes." HortScience 41, no. 4 (July 2006): 1022D—1022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.41.4.1022d.
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Up to three hurricanes (Charley, Frances, and Jeanne) passed over the same citrus-producing areas of Florida in August and September 2004. In October 2005, hurricane Wilma also passed over South Florida. We began evaluating citrus tree recovery in four commercial groves (red and white grapefruit, and `Murcott' tangerine) following the 2004 hurricanes to determine how quickly commercial groves recover following such catastrophic events. We previously reported that, among other things, even branches formed after the last 2004 hurricane matured sufficiently to flower the following spring, but to a lesser extent than older shoots. Here, we report hurricane effects on tree yield, fruit quality, and shelf life. Fruit loss was dramatic following the 2004 hurricanes (>90%). Fruit loss was also substantial following hurricane Wilma, with `Murcott' yields reduced 18% and grapefruit yields reduced 58%-65%. However, in comparison to 2003 pre-hurricane yields, yields following hurricane Wilma declined only 9% for `Murcott,' and 26%-40% for grapefruit. These yield reductions are less than the fruit lost due to the present year's hurricane. Therefore, the citrus trees studied demonstrated tremendous resilience and, if not for another hurricane the following year, would have likely exceeded pre-hurricane yields only 1 year after the devastating 2004 hurricanes. Effects of the hurricanes on harvested fruit quality and shelf life will also be discussed.
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Carlson, Douglas B., D. Diane Richards, and Joshua E. Reilly. "Hurricane Preparedness and Response Along Florida's Central-East Coast: Indian River Mosquito Control District's Experiences Over the Years." Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association 36, no. 2s (June 1, 2020): 5–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.2987/19-6875s.1.
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ABSTRACT The hurricane is no stranger to longtime residents of Florida's east coast. In 1979, after about 15 years of local inactivity, Hurricane David made landfall in West Palm Beach. Thirteen years later and 100 miles south, category 5 Hurricane Andrew caused catastrophic damage when it hit the city of Homestead in the Miami-Dade area. In 2004, the counties along the east coast of central Florida were hit by 2 devastating hurricanes, Frances and Jeanne, that made landfall at Sewall's Point just 20 days apart. The very next year, Hurricane Wilma made landfall near Everglades City as a Category 3 storm. After a decade of relief, a glancing blow from Hurricane Matthew struck in 2016, only to be followed by the extremely devastating Hurricane Irma just 1 year later. Each of these hurricanes caused significant property damage and mosquito problems for the Florida residents affected by these storms. In 1997, the Indian River Mosquito Control District (IRMCD) developed a hurricane preparedness plan outlining the appropriate action to be taken depending on the severity of the approaching storm. The IRMCD has also learned to negotiate the intricacies of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's reimbursement program, thus reducing the financial impact to the District. This paper provides an overview of how IRMCD has prepared, reacted, and followed-up with the seemingly constant parade of hurricanes that have threatened and affected the east coast over time.
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Banks, DVM, MPH, Laura L., Mark B. Shah, MD, and Michael E. Richards, MD, MPA. "Effective healthcare system response to consecutive Florida hurricanes." American Journal of Disaster Medicine 2, no. 6 (November 1, 2007): 285–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/ajdm.2007.0038.
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In September 2004, two consecutive hurricanes (Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne) made landfall in Stuart, FL, and created healthcare needs that overtaxed the capacity of the local healthcare system. To determine the character and structure of the response to these hurricanes, researchers from the University of New Mexico, Center for Disaster Medicine conducted both a structured written survey of employees and a guided group interview with healthcare system management. The written survey queried staff on topics related to their ability and willingness to get to work and stay at work during the storms. The roundtable interview with leadership resulted in analysis of the preexisting Emergency Operations Plan and its use during the storms, including preparation and execution of plans for staffing, facility operation, communication, community resource utilization, and recovery. In addition, the interaction with federally deployed Disaster Medical Assistance Teams was documented and reviewed. In general, prior planning on the part of the healthcare system in Stuart, FL, resulted in a successful response to both hurricanes. Employees were willing and able to provide the necessary care for patients during the hurricanes, overcoming many physical and emotional barriers that arose during the month-long response. These barriers included concern for the safety of family and pets, inoperable or insufficient communication methods, and damage to employees’ personal property and homes. Recommendations for healthcare system preparedness and response were formulated by the researchers based on this healthcare system’s successful response to back-to-back hurricanes, including recommendations for interacting with disaster medical resources.
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Malmstadt, Jill C., James B. Elsner, and Thomas H. Jagger. "Risk of Strong Hurricane Winds to Florida Cities." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49, no. 10 (October 1, 2010): 2121–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jamc2420.1.
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Abstract A statistical procedure for estimating the risk of strong winds from hurricanes is demonstrated and applied to several major cities in Florida. The procedure, called the hurricane risk calculator, provides an estimate of wind risk over different length periods and can be applied to any location experiencing this hazard. Results show that the city of Miami can expect to see hurricane winds blowing at 50 m s−1 [45.5–54.5 m s−1 is the 90% confidence interval (CI)] or stronger, on average, once every 12 yr. In comparison, the city of Pensacola can expect to see hurricane winds of 50 m s−1 (46.9–53.1 m s−1, 90% CI) or stronger once every 24 yr. A quantile regression is applied to hurricane wind speeds in the vicinity of Florida. Results show that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as a consequence of higher offshore intensification rates.
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Grabich, Shannon C., Whitney R. Robinson, Charles E. Konrad, and Jennifer A. Horney. "Impact of Hurricane Exposure on Reproductive Health Outcomes, Florida, 2004." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 11, no. 4 (January 17, 2017): 407–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2016.158.
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AbstractObjectivePrenatal hurricane exposure may be an increasingly important contributor to poor reproductive health outcomes. In the current literature, mixed associations have been suggested between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes. This may be due, in part, to residual confounding. We assessed the association between hurricane exposure and reproductive health outcomes by using a difference-in-difference analysis technique to control for confounding in a cohort of Florida pregnancies.MethodsWe implemented a difference-in-difference analysis to evaluate hurricane weather and reproductive health outcomes including low birth weight, fetal death, and birth rate. The study population for analysis included all Florida pregnancies conceived before or during the 2003 and 2004 hurricane season. Reproductive health data were extracted from vital statistics records from the Florida Department of Health. In 2004, 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) made landfall in rapid succession; whereas in 2003, no hurricanes made landfall in Florida.ResultsOverall models using the difference-in-difference analysis showed no association between exposure to hurricane weather and reproductive health.ConclusionsThe inconsistency of the literature on hurricane exposure and reproductive health may be in part due to biases inherent in pre-post or regression-based county-level comparisons. We found no associations between hurricane exposure and reproductive health. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:407–411)
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Jones, J. W. "Hurricanes and Florida Agriculture." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 126, no. 3-4 (November 2004): 297–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.05.006.
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Klein, Ryan W., Andrew K. Koeser, Brian Kane, Shawn M. Landry, Heather Shields, Stephen Lloyd, and Gail Hansen. "Evaluating the Likelihood of Tree Failure in Naples, Florida (United States) Following Hurricane Irma." Forests 11, no. 5 (April 25, 2020): 485. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f11050485.
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Trees in residential landscapes provide many benefits, but can injure persons and damage property when they fail. In hurricane-prone regions like Florida, USA, the regular occurrence of hurricanes has provided an opportunity to assess factors that influence the likelihood of wind-induced tree failure and develop species failure profiles. We assessed open-grown trees in Naples, Florida, following the passage of Hurricane Irma in September 2017 to determine the effect of relevant factors on the degree of damage sustained by individual trees. Of 4034 assessed individuals (n = 15 species), 74% sustained no damage, 4% sustained only minor damage (i.e., minimal corrective pruning needed), 6% sustained significant damage (i.e., major corrective pruning needed), and 15% were whole-tree failures (i.e., overturned trees or trees requiring removal). The proportion of individuals in each damage category varied among species, stem diameter at 1.4 m above ground, and the presence of utility lines, which was a proxy for maintenance. We compared our results with the findings of seven previous hurricanes in the region to explore species’ resilience in hurricanes.
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Elsner, James B., Sarah E. Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy LaRow, and Ming Zhao. "Sensitivity of Limiting Hurricane Intensity to SST in the Atlantic from Observations and GCMs." Journal of Climate 26, no. 16 (August 6, 2013): 5949–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00433.1.
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Abstract A statistical model for the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been developed and a new methodology introduced for estimating the sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to changes in sea surface temperature. Here, the authors use this methodology on observed hurricanes and hurricanes generated from two global climate models (GCMs). Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1981–2010 show a sensitivity of 7.9 ± 1.19 m s−1 K−1 (standard error; SE) when over seas warmer than 25°C. In contrast, hurricanes over the same region and period generated from the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) show a significantly lower sensitivity with the highest at 1.8 ± 0.42 m s−1 K−1 (SE). Similar weaker sensitivity is found using hurricanes generated from the Florida State University Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model with the highest at 2.9 ± 2.64 m s−1 K−1 (SE). A statistical refinement of HiRAM-generated hurricane intensities heightens the sensitivity to a maximum of 6.9 ± 3.33 m s−1 K−1 (SE), but the increase is offset by additional uncertainty associated with the refinement. Results suggest that the caution that should be exercised when interpreting GCM scenarios of future hurricane intensity stems from the low sensitivity of limiting GCM-generated hurricane intensity to ocean temperature.
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Liu, Kam-biu, and Miriam L. Fearn. "Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records." Quaternary Research 54, no. 2 (September 2000): 238–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.2000.2166.
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Sediment cores from Western Lake provide a 7000-yr record of coastal environmental changes and catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle. Using Hurricane Opal as a modern analog, we infer that overwash sand layers occurring near the center of the lake were caused by catastrophic hurricanes of category 4 or 5 intensity. Few catastrophic hurricanes struck the Western Lake area during two quiescent periods 3400–5000 and 0–1000 14C yr B.P. The landfall probabilities increased dramatically to ca. 0.5% per yr during an “hyperactive” period from 1000–3400 14C yr B.P., especially in the first millennium A.D. The millennial-scale variability in catastrophic hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast is probably controlled by shifts in the position of the jet stream and the Bermuda High.
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Jill Malmstadt, Kelsey Scheitlin, and James Elsner. "Florida Hurricanes and Damage Costs." Southeastern Geographer 49, no. 2 (2009): 108–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/sgo.0.0045.
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Godfrey, Jodi, Gennaro Saliceto, and Roberta Yegidis. "Role of Public Transportation in a Natural Disaster State of Emergency Declaration." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 5 (March 21, 2019): 230–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119835814.
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Destructive natural disasters such as hurricanes or other extreme weather events challenge many industries, especially the public transit industry. The 2017 hurricane season proved to be tumultuous, with three major hurricanes devastating the United States in less than 2 months. The challenges faced in Florida, in response to Hurricane Irma, precipitated best practices and lessons learned related to monitoring and reporting the status of transportation infrastructure, identifying temporary alternative solutions, and coordinating and communicating with emergency operations centers, state departments of transportation, and individual transit agencies. Sharing the lessons learned from recent firsthand experiences will undoubtedly improve the public transit industry’s emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities.
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Castañeda-Moya, Edward, Victor H. Rivera-Monroy, Randolph M. Chambers, Xiaochen Zhao, Lukas Lamb-Wotton, Adrianna Gorsky, Evelyn E. Gaiser, Tiffany G. Troxler, John S. Kominoski, and Matthew Hiatt. "Hurricanes fertilize mangrove forests in the Gulf of Mexico (Florida Everglades, USA)." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 9 (February 18, 2020): 4831–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1908597117.
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Hurricanes are recurring high-energy disturbances in coastal regions that change community structure and function of mangrove wetlands. However, most of the studies assessing hurricane impacts on mangroves have focused on negative effects without considering the positive influence of hurricane-induced sediment deposition and associated nutrient fertilization on mangrove productivity and resilience. Here, we quantified how Hurricane Irma influenced soil nutrient pools, vertical accretion, and plant phosphorus (P) uptake after its passage across the Florida Coastal Everglades in September 2017. Vertical accretion from Irma’s deposits was 6.7 to 14.4 times greater than the long-term (100 y) annual accretion rate (0.27 ± 0.04 cm y−1). Storm deposits extended up to 10-km inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Total P (TP) inputs were highest at the mouth of estuaries, with P concentration double that of underlying surface (top 10 cm) soils (0.19 ± 0.02 mg cm−3). This P deposition contributed 49 to 98% to the soil nutrient pool. As a result, all mangrove species showed a significant increase in litter foliar TP and soil porewater inorganic P concentrations in early 2018, 3 mo after Irma’s impact, thus underscoring the interspecies differences in nutrient uptake. Mean TP loading rates were five times greater in southwestern (94 ± 13 kg ha−1d−1) mangrove-dominated estuaries compared to the southeastern region, highlighting the positive role of hurricanes as a natural fertilization mechanism influencing forest productivity. P-rich, mineral sediments deposited by hurricanes create legacies that facilitate rapid forest recovery, stimulation of peat soil development, and resilience to sea-level rise.
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Landry, Carol L. "Changes in pollinator assemblages following hurricanes affect the mating system of Laguncularia racemosa (Combretaceae) in Florida, USA." Journal of Tropical Ecology 29, no. 3 (May 2013): 209–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266467413000266.
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Abstract:Hurricanes are major disturbance events in Neotropical mangrove communities, potentially affecting the reproductive success of mangrove species. This was the first investigation of changes in mangrove pollinator assemblages following hurricanes, and the effect of these changes on the mating system of Laguncularia racemosa. Insect pollinator assemblages were investigated in three Florida mangrove communities in 2001–2003, 2005 and 2009; two hurricanes affected the area in 2004. Visitation rates were estimated from 1445 insects observed during 272 10-min intervals; the number of flowers visited by each insect was also recorded. Pollinator diversity was estimated with the Shannon Index. Following the hurricanes, species richness was reduced by 43–65% and diversity declined by 36–70%. Significant declines in insect visitation to L. racemosa resulted in reduced outcrossing frequencies in 2005. Laguncularia racemosa flowers autogamously self-pollinate without insect visitors, so fruit set still occurred. Visitation rates returned to pre-hurricane levels by 2009, but foraging behaviours differed from pre-hurricane patterns; outcrossing was further favoured by reduced frequencies of long foraging bouts and increased frequencies of short foraging bouts. The mixed mating system of L. racemosa provides reproductive assurance following hurricane disturbances, when pollinator abundance is low.
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Ghorbanzadeh, Mahyar, Mohammadreza Koloushani, Mehmet Baran Ulak, Eren Erman Ozguven, and Reza Arghandeh Jouneghani. "Statistical and Spatial Analysis of Hurricane-induced Roadway Closures and Power Outages." Energies 13, no. 5 (March 2, 2020): 1098. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13051098.
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Hurricanes lead to substantial infrastructure system damages, such as roadway closures and power outages, in the US annually, especially in states like Florida. As such, this paper aimed to assess the impacts of Hurricane Hermine (2016) and Hurricane Michael (2018) on the City of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida, via exploratory spatial and statistical analyses on power outages and roadway closures. First, a geographical information systems (GIS)-based spatial analysis was conducted to explore the power outages and roadway closure patterns in the city including kernel density estimation (KDE) and density ratio difference (DRD) methods. In order to provide a more detailed assessment on which population segments were more affected, a second step included a statistical analysis to identify the relationships between demographic- and socioeconomic-related variables and the magnitude of power outages and roadway closures caused by these hurricanes. The results indicate that the high-risk locations for roadway closures showed different patterns, whereas power outages seemed to have similar spatial patterns for the hurricanes. The findings of this study can provide useful insights and information for city officials to identify the most vulnerable regions which are under the risk of disruption. This can lead to better infrastructure plans and policies.
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McWilliams, Edward L. "669 The Impact of Gulf Coast Hurricanes on Pecans, Ornamental Trees, and Invasive Exotic Species." HortScience 34, no. 3 (June 1999): 563D—563. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.34.3.563d.
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Hurricanes strike the Gulf Coast of the United States every few years. We briefly describe generalized hurricane tracks for the Gulf Coast and vegetation damage using NDVI satellite imagery as well as slides of damaged urban trees in Florida. The impact of recent hurricanes on both pecan defoliation and production and on initial damage and subsequent recovery of various ornamental trees is described. Pecan harvests were greatly reduced by hurricanes that struck late in the season in both Alabama and Texas. Varieties of pecans varied in their susceptibility to various stresses. Pine forests were sometimes devastated by certain hurricanes while live oaks, various shrubs, and important insects often survived the same storms with little damage. Many exotic ornamental plants including Chinese tallow are either adventive or invasive along the Gulf Coast. Species escape from cultivation over a long period of time and exhibit different invasion lag phases. In Texas and Louisiana, hurricane damage to native trees allowed Chinese tallow seedlings and saplings to subsequently dominate some areas as a result of the disturbance. One delayed ecological response to hurricanes and typhoons is an acceleration of ongoing exotic plant invasions.
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Tomiczek, Tori, Brittany Webbmartin, Steven Scyphers, Kiera O’Donnell, and Kelsi Furman. "INTERCONNECTIVITIES BETWEEN HAZARD, DAMAGE, AND SHORELINE TYPE: LESSONS LEARNED FROM HURRICANE IRMA’S IMPACT ON THE FLORIDA KEYS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.82.
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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, generating over 226 units of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure used by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) that refers to the combined the intensity and duration of a hurricane. These statistics earned the hurricane season’s classification as “extremely active,†the most active since 2005. Preliminary estimates of damage due to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria amount to over $200 billion dollars in the United States alone. Recent studies suggest that the frequency of these high intensity Category 4 and 5 hurricanes is increasing (e.g. Mendelsohn et al., 2012). The 2017 hurricane season may thus be representative of an expected season. Accounting for projected increases in mean sea level, storm impacts may be exacerbated in coastal regions. These trends emphasize the need for effective damage mitigation techniques that improve the robustness and resiliency of coastal communities. Structures must be designed to not only avoid wave and surge loads, but also resist these forces in the event of a wave impact. Furthermore, creative, cost-effective solutions are required to mitigate waves and surge before they reach developed coastal areas. Thus, engineers require a robust, science-based methodology for predicting details of wave propagation over land and inland effects to ensure life safety and reduce economic loss due to extreme events. While traditional engineering strategies (e.g. seawalls, bulkheads) have been used to prevent coastal erosion and mitigate inland effects of hurricane waves and surge, recent storm events have shown potential of nature and natural based features (e.g. dune vegetation, mangroves, wetlands, salt-marshes, coral reefs, and seagrass) to protect coastal structures during storm events.
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Bartell, Lisa A. "Ventricular Assist Devices: Preparing for Catastrophic Environmental Events." Progress in Transplantation 15, no. 3 (September 2005): 264–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/152692480501500310.
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In the summer of 2004, Florida experienced 4 major hurricanes in a matter of weeks. These hurricanes left many Floridians without power and passable roads, interrupted communications, and destroyed some homes. During this time, Tampa General Hospital had 1 patient living at home with an implanted ventricular assist device. The patient had been discharged home only 2 weeks before hurricane Frances hit hard. Although the patient was able to stay at home and experienced no major problems with the device, there were several situations that taught us many lessons about caring for patients with ventricular assist devices during environmental catastrophic events.
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Chenoweth, M., and C. J. Mock. "Hurricane “Amanda”: Rediscovery of a Forgotten U.S. Civil War Florida Hurricane." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, no. 11 (November 1, 2013): 1735–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00171.1.
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Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently rediscovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event—in this case, the U.S. Civil War. The authors document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it “Hurricane Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern databases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins.
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Crane, Jonathan H., Bruce Schaffer, and Richard J. Campbell. "670 Long-term Impacts and Recovery of Perennial Tropical Fruit Crops from Hurricanes in South Florida." HortScience 34, no. 3 (June 1999): 563E—563. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.34.3.563e.
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Southern Florida has experienced numerous hurricanes, of which Hurricane Andrew was the most recent. Six years after this storm, nearly one-third of the 8093 ha of tropical fruit that existed in Miami–Dade County before the storm has never been replanted. The damage, reaction, and recovery from the storm varied among fruit species. The effect of heat stress and high light intensity was minimal on avocado, `Tahiti' lime, carambola, mamey sapote, guava, sapodilla, and longan. In contrast, mango trees experienced severe heat stress. Root damage caused by toppling and subsequent re-setting of sugar apple, atemoya, mango, and grafted `Tahiti' lime trees was severe; thus, trees not re-set were less likely to recover than trees left toppled or leaning. The extent and rate of recovery from hurricane-related wind stress also varied among species. Avocado, carambola, guava, and longan refoliated within 3 to 4 weeks after Hurricane Andrew. In contrast, mango, sugar apple, and atemoya trees went through two or more cycles of refoliating and dying back until tree death occurred. Iron and nitrogen deficiencies were common for mango, sugar apple, atemoya, and guava. Other consequences of hurricanes in south Florida include increased weed and vine growth and increased susceptibility to drought stress and insect infestations. Recovery to prehurricane crop production levels has varied among crops. For example, avocado and carambola production is near and exceeds pre-1992 levels, respectively. In contrast, `Tahiti' lime and mango production are about 20% pre-1992 levels. The long-term effect of the most recent hurricane on fruit production in south Florida has been a change in the crop species and/or cultivars planted.
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Ahmouda, Ahmed, Hartwig H. Hochmair, and Sreten Cvetojevic. "Using Twitter to Analyze the Effect of Hurricanes on Human Mobility Patterns." Urban Science 3, no. 3 (August 3, 2019): 87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/urbansci3030087.
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Understanding human mobility patterns becomes essential in crisis management and response. This study analyzes the effect of two hurricanes in the United States on human mobility patterns, more specifically on trip distance (displacement), radius of gyration, and mean square displacement, using Twitter data. The study examines three geographical regions which include urbanized areas (Houston, Texas; Miami-Dade County, Florida) and both rural and urbanized areas (North and South Carolina) affected by hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Harvey (2017). Comparison of movement patterns before, during, and after each hurricane shows that displacement and activity space decreased during the events in the regions. Part of this decline can be potentially tied to observed lower tweet numbers around supply facilities during hurricanes, when many of them are closed, as well as to numerous flooded and blocked roads reported in the affected regions. Furthermore, it is shown that displacement patterns can be modeled through a truncated power-law before, during, and after the analyzed hurricanes, which demonstrates the resilience of human mobility behavior in this regard. Analysis of hashtag use in the three study areas indicates that Twitter contributors post about the events primarily during the hurricane landfall and to some extent also during hurricane preparation. This increase in hurricane-related Twitter topics and decrease in activity space provides a tie between changed travel behavior in affected areas and user perception of hurricanes in the Twitter community. Overall, this study adds to the body of knowledge that connects human mobility to natural crises at the local level. It suggests that governmental and rescue operations need to respond to and be prepared for reduced mobility of residents in affected regions during natural crisis events.
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Ozores-Hampton, Monica, K. E. Cushman, F. Roka, and R. D. French-Monar. "Effect of Hurricanes on Commercial Tomato Crop Production in Southern Florida." HortTechnology 23, no. 4 (August 2013): 498–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/horttech.23.4.498.
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Several experiments were conducted in commercial tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) plantings during the 2004–05 and 2005–06 seasons in Immokalee, FL, to understand types of plant damage and potential yield reductions caused by hurricanes. Expt. 1 involved ‘Florida 91’ tomato seedlings damaged during 2004 by hurricane Frances, 15 days after transplanting (DAT). Individual plants were rated and categorized as best, good, or fair, 34 DAT according to plant size and vigor/severity of injury. Ten plants from each category were removed with roots intact, and dry weights were recorded. During 2005, 23 DAT or 8 days after hurricane Wilma, Expt. 2 was conducted to compare rescued and replanted ‘Soraya’ tomato seedlings. Rescued seedlings were left in place after the hurricane and others were removed and replaced with new transplants of the same variety. Expt. 3 (‘Florida 47’) and 4 (‘BHN 586’) involved the contrast of two yield seasons without a hurricane (2004–05) and with hurricane Wilma (2005–06) to estimate the effect of the hurricane damage on tomato 65 and 45 DAT. Fruit was counted, graded by size, and weighed for each experiment from 10 plants/plot. Injury caused by hurricane winds was most evident in Expt. 1 mostly in stem damage below the soil surface showed callous tissue at the site of injury due to plants being whipped around in the planting hole. Plants rated “best” showed greater plant and root dry weight, stem diameter below the injury point, and higher yield of extra large and total marketable fruit at first harvest than plants rated good or fair. Total marketable yields from rescued plants in Expt. 2 were double than that from replanted plants, and fruit matured 20 days earlier for rescued plants indicating that plants injured by Wilma recovered quickly. Hurricane-damaged crops during 2005–06 in Expts. 3 and 4 yielded 60% lower than that of undamaged crops during 2004–05. In the extra large size category, the yields were reduced between 34% and 12% from the previous season. However, hurricane-damaged loss of yield in the extra large category was offset by increased yield in the medium category. It appears that hurricane-damaged plants, when young, were capable of full recovery and normal yields, whereas hurricane-damaged plants, when older at the time injury occurred, were not able to fully recover and eventually produced only half the normal yield.
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Willison, Charley E., Phillip M. Singer, Melissa S. Creary, and Scott L. Greer. "Quantifying inequities in US federal response to hurricane disaster in Texas and Florida compared with Puerto Rico." BMJ Global Health 4, no. 1 (January 2019): e001191. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001191.
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If disaster responses vary in their effectiveness across communities, health equity is affected. This paper aims to evaluate and describe variation in the federal disaster responses to 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, compared with the need and severity of storm damage through a retrospective analysis. Our analysis spans from landfall to 6 months after landfall for each hurricane. To examine differences in disaster responses across the hurricanes, we focus on measures of federal spending, federal resources distributed and direct and indirect storm-mortality counts. Federal spending estimates come from congressional appropriations and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) records. Resource estimates come from FEMA documents and news releases. Mortality counts come from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, respective vital statistics offices and news articles. Damage estimates came from NOAA reports. In each case, we compare the responses and the severity at critical time points after the storm based on FEMA time logs. Our results show that the federal government responded on a larger scale and much more quickly across measures of federal money and staffing to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in Texas and Florida, compared with Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. The variation in the responses was not commensurate with storm severity and need after landfall in the case of Puerto Rico compared with Texas and Florida. Assuming that disaster responses should be at least commensurate to the degree of storm severity and need of the population, the insufficient response received by Puerto Rico raises concern for growth in health disparities and increases in adverse health outcomes.
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Staudhammer, Christina L., Francisco Escobedo, Christopher Luley, and Jerry Bond. "Technical Note: Patterns of Urban Forest Debris from the 2004 and 2005 Florida Hurricane Seasons." Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 33, no. 4 (November 1, 2009): 193–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sjaf/33.4.193.
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Abstract Urban tree debris generation and damage resulting from seven hurricanes during the 2004 and 2005 Florida hurricane seasons was analyzed using a random sample of communities in highly affected counties. Woody debris amounts, rates, and costs for cleanup were quantified, as were the spatial patterns of damage across the state. Average debris volume per mile of street segment was 488 cubic yards, and cost of removal and disposal averaged $21.50 per cubic yard. Urban forest structure, community characteristics, and hurricane severity influenced debris and cost results. Spatial analyses indicated that debris results were clustered into northwest and southeast areas of the state, which represent two distinct ecoregions in Florida. Although southeastern Florida had much higher costs per cubic yard than the northwest, the debris volume per road mile was higher in the northwest portion of the state. On a per-mile basis, Hurricane Ivan was responsible for the greatest debris volume, and Hurricane Katrina was the most expensive. These results can be used to help communities plan for hurricane response and management activities and to estimate potential damage to their urban forest resource.
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Phillips, Doug, Jeffrey Williamson, and Philip Harmon. "Impacts of Hurricane Damage on Southern Highbush Blueberries." EDIS 2019, no. 5 (September 25, 2019): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.32473/edis-hs1342-2019.
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Florida has been affected by eight hurricanes since 2000. This new 3-page publication discusses the types of hurricane damage that occur in blueberry production operations, the impacts of these damages, and some recommendations on best management practices in the aftermath of a storm. Written by Douglas A. Phillips, Jeffrey G. Williamson, and Philip F. Harmon and published by the UF/IFAS Horticultural Sciences Department. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/hs1342
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Zhang, Keqi, Yuepeng Li, Huiqing Liu, Jamie Rhome, and Cristina Forbes. "Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide Model to an Operational Storm Surge Forecast Model: A Case Study of the Florida Coast." Weather and Forecasting 28, no. 4 (July 30, 2013): 1019–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-12-00076.1.
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Abstract The operational forecast demands and constraints of the National Hurricane Center require that a storm surge model in research mode be tested against a benchmark model such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) for accuracy, computation time, and numerical stability before the model is used for operational forecasts. Additionally, the simulated results must be in a geographic information system format to facilitate the usage of computed storm surge for various applications. This paper presents results from a demonstration project to explore the pathway for the transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST) model to an operational forecast model by testing CEST over SLOSH basins in Florida. The performance and stability of CEST were examined by conducting simulations for Hurricane Andrew (1992) and more than 100 000 synthetic hurricanes for nine SLOSH basins covering the Florida coast and Lake Okeechobee. The results show that CEST produces peak surge heights similar to those from SLOSH. Additionally, CEST has proven to be numerically stable against all synthetic hurricanes and the computation time of CEST is comparable to that of SLOSH. Therefore, CEST has the potential to be used for operational forecasts of storm surge. The potential of producing more detailed real-time surge inundation forecasts was also investigated through the simulations of Andrew's surge on various grids with different cell sizes. The results indicate that CEST can produce 48-h forecasts using a single processor in about 40 min over a grid generated by reducing the cell edge size of the SLOSH grid by 4 times.
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McKibben, Jodi B. A., Carol S. Fullerton, Robert J. Ursano, Dori B. Reissman, Kathleen Kowalski-Trakofler, James M. Shultz, and Leming Wang. "Sleep and Arousal as Risk Factors for Adverse Health and Work Performance in Public Health Workers Involved in the 2004 Florida Hurricane Season." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 4, S1 (September 2010): S55—S62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/dmp.2010.9.
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ABSTRACTBackground: We examined the relation of sleep disturbance and arousal to work performance, mental and physical health, and day-to-day functioning in Florida Department of Health (FDOH) employees 9 months after the 2004 Florida hurricane season.Methods: FDOH employees were contacted via e-mail 9 months after the 2004 hurricanes. Participants (N = 2249) completed electronic questionnaires including measures of sleep disturbance, arousal, work performance, physical health, mental health, day-to-day function, hurricane injury, and work demand.Results: More than 18% of FDOH employees reported ≥25% reduced work performance and 11% to 15.3% reported ≥7 “bad” mental or physical health days in the past month. Sleep disturbance and elevated arousal were strongly associated with impaired work performance (odds ratios [ORs] 3.33 and 3.34, respectively), “bad” mental health (ORs 3.01 and 3.64), “bad” physical health (ORs 3.21 and 2.01), and limited day-to-day function (ORs 4.71 and 2.32), even after adjusting for sex, race, age, education, and marital status.Conclusions: Among public health workers exposed to the 2004 hurricanes, sleep disturbance and arousal were associated with personal and work impairment. Future research should continue to examine the effect of repeated exposure to disasters in first responders.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2010;4:S55-S62)
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Smith, RS, JA Blaze, and JE Byers. "Negative indirect effects of hurricanes on recruitment of range-expanding mangroves." Marine Ecology Progress Series 644 (June 25, 2020): 65–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps13351.
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Disturbances often have positive, direct effects on invasions by dispersing propagules or creating environmental conditions that favor invasive species. However, disturbances that alter interactions between resident and invading species could also affect invasion success. In northeast Florida, the black mangrove Avicennia germinans is expanding into salt marshes, where it interacts with the dead litter (wrack) of the native marsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora. From 2015-2017, we performed monthly surveys before and after 2 hurricanes in 3 marsh microhabitats (bare sediment, vegetation, wrack) to quantify mangrove propagule and seedling densities. Wrack increased propagule retention up to 10 times relative to other microhabitats. Hurricanes did not directly harm mangrove propagules or seedlings. However, storm surge relocated wrack to upland environments, which indirectly inhibited mangroves by temporarily disrupting the facilitative effects of wrack on propagule recruitment and exposing intertidal bare patches that decreased propagule retention and seedling establishment. Wrack remained absent from intertidal areas for 1-3 mo. Because hurricane season overlaps with propagule recruitment, hurricane timing and wrack return time to intertidal areas influence the degree that hurricanes disrupt wrack-mangrove interactions. We demonstrate that large-scale disturbances can negatively and indirectly affect invader recruitment by altering interactions with resident species.
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Baggerly, Jennifer, and Larissa K. Ferretti. "The Impact of the 2004 Hurricanes on Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test Scores: Implications for School Counselors." Professional School Counseling 12, no. 1 (October 2008): 2156759X0801200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2156759x0801200101.
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What is the impact of natural disasters on students' statewide assessment scores? To answer this question, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT) scores of 55,881 students in grades 4 through 10 were analyzed to determine if there were significant decreases after the 2004 hurricanes. Results reveal that there was statistical but no practical significance between the FCAT scores of students in high- and low-hurricane-impacted schools. Implications for school counselors are provided.
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Johnston, Matthew W., and Sam J. Purkis. "Hurricanes accelerated the Florida-Bahamas lionfish invasion." Global Change Biology 21, no. 6 (March 20, 2015): 2249–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12874.
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Elsner, James B., Shawn W. Lewers, Jill C. Malmstadt, and Thomas H. Jagger. "Estimating Contemporary and Future Wind-Damage Losses from Hurricanes Affecting Eglin Air Force Base, Florida." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 50, no. 7 (July 2011): 1514–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jamc2658.1.
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AbstractThe strongest hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean are getting stronger, with the increase related to rising ocean temperature. Here, the authors develop a procedure for estimating future wind losses from hurricanes and apply it to Eglin Air Force Base along the northern coast of Florida. The method combines models of the statistical distributions for extreme wind speed and average sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Mexico with dynamical models for tropical cyclone wind fields and damage losses. Results show that the 1-in-100-yr hurricane from the twentieth century picked at random to occur in the year 2100 would result in wind damage that is 36% [(13%, 76%) = 90% confidence interval] greater solely as a consequence of the projected warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico. The method can be applied elsewhere along the coast with modeling assumptions modified for regional conditions.
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Karaye, Ibraheem M., Jennifer A. Horney, David P. Retchless, and Ashley D. Ross. "Determinants of Hurricane Evacuation from a Large Representative Sample of the U.S. Gulf Coast." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 21 (November 3, 2019): 4268. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16214268.
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Exposure to natural disasters like hurricanes negatively impacts the mental and physical health of populations, and evacuation is an important step taken to prevent these adverse health events. This study uses data from a large representative sample of U.S. Gulf Coast residents to explore the determinants of hurricane evacuation. In December 2017, data were collected from 3030 residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida—2557 of whom reported being impacted during the 2017 hurricane season. Bivariate analyses were conducted using prevalence differences and tested for statistical significance with chi-square tests. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with hurricane evacuation. One-third of the respondents (919 of 2557; 35.9%) evacuated from a hurricane that impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2017. The determinants of hurricane evacuation in this population were: residing in a mobile home, higher perception of storm surge risk, higher perception of wind risk, self-sufficiency, carrying flood insurance, and reliance on media and family for evacuation decisions. These findings may be relevant for reducing the adverse health effects of hurricanes by improving emergency planning and evacuation in this highly vulnerable region.
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Vickery, Peter J., and Dhiraj Wadhera. "Statistical Models of Holland Pressure Profile Parameter and Radius to Maximum Winds of Hurricanes from Flight-Level Pressure and H*Wind Data." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47, no. 10 (October 1, 2008): 2497–517. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jamc1837.1.
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Abstract In many hurricane risk models the inclusion of the Holland B parameter plays an important role in the risk prediction methodology. This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between B and a nondimensional intensity parameter. The nondimensional parameter includes the strong negative correlation of B with increasing hurricane size [as defined by the radius to maximum winds (RMW)] and latitude as well as a positive correlation with sea surface temperature. A weak positive correlation between central pressure deficit and B is also included in the single parameter term. Alternate statistical models relating B to RMW and latitude are also developed. Estimates of B are derived using pressure data collected during hurricane reconnaissance flights, coupled with additional information derived from the Hurricane Research Division’s H*Wind snapshots of hurricane wind fields. The reconnaissance data incorporate flights encompassing the time period 1977 through 2001, but the analysis was limited to include only those data collected at the 700-hPa-or-higher level. Statistical models relating RMW to latitude and central pressure derived from the dataset are compared to those derived for U.S. landfalling storms during the period 1900–2005. The authors find that for the Gulf of Mexico, using only the landfall hurricanes, the data suggest that there is no inverse relationship between RMW and the central pressure deficit. The RMW data also demonstrate that Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are, on average, smaller than Atlantic Ocean hurricanes. A qualitative examination of the variation of B, central pressure, and radius to maximum winds as a function of time suggests that along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (excluding southwest Florida), during the final 6–24 h before landfall, the hurricanes weaken as characterized by both an increase in central pressure and the radius to maximum winds and a decrease in B. This weakening characteristic of landfalling storms is not evident for hurricanes making landfall elsewhere along the U.S. coastline.
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Crane, Jonathan, Carlos Balerdi, Richard Campbell, Carl Campbell, and Seymour Goldweber. "Managing Fruit Orchards to Minimize Hurricane Damage." HortTechnology 4, no. 1 (January 1994): 21–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/horttech.4.1.21.
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Hurricanes occur periodically in southern Florida, resulting in severely damaged or destroyed orchards due to high winds, fresh-water flooding, and salt damage accompanying these storms. Commercial fruit production is often markedly reduced following hurricane damage. Orchard establishment and management practices that increase tree rooting depth and reduce tree size decrease tree losses due to high-velocity winds that accompany these storms. Cultural practices, such as post-hurricane pruning, whitewashing, resetting, and irrigation of trees, can rehabilitate a damaged orchard. Planning for a hurricane will increase the ability of orchards to withstand a storm and resume fruit production as soon as possible following a storm.
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Herberman Mash, Holly B., Carol S. Fullerton, Kathleen Kowalski-Trakofler, Dori B. Reissman, Ted Scharf, James M. Shultz, and Robert J. Ursano. "Florida Department of Health Workers’ Response to 2004 Hurricanes: A Qualitative Analysis." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 7, no. 2 (March 27, 2013): 153–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2013.13.
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AbstractObjectiveExaminations of the demands on public health workers after disaster exposure have been limited. Workers provide emergency care while simultaneously risking injury, damage to personal property, and threats to their own and their family's safety. We examined the disaster management experiences of 4323 Florida Department of Health workers 9 months after their response to 4 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm during a 7-week period in August and September of 2004.MethodsParticipants completed a self-report questionnaire focused on work performance, mental and physical health, daily functioning, sleep disturbance, physiological arousal, and injury and work demand at the time of the hurricanes, and answered open-ended questions that described their experiences in more detail.ResultsA qualitative analysis conducted from the write-in data yielded 4 domains: (1) work/life balance; (2) training for disaster response role; (3) workplace support; and (4) recovery.ConclusionsStudy findings highlighted a number of concerns that are important to public health workers who provide emergency care after a disaster and, in particular, multiple disasters such as during the 2004 hurricane season. The findings also yielded important recommendations for emergency public health preparedness. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2013;0:1–7)
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Long, Elisa F., M. Keith Chen, and Ryne Rohla. "Political storms: Emergent partisan skepticism of hurricane risks." Science Advances 6, no. 37 (September 2020): eabb7906. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb7906.
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Mistrust of scientific evidence and government-issued guidelines is increasingly correlated with political affiliation. Survey evidence has documented skepticism in a diverse set of issues including climate change, vaccine hesitancy, and, most recently, COVID-19 risks. Less well understood is whether these beliefs alter high-stakes behavior. Combining GPS data for 2.7 million smartphone users in Florida and Texas with 2016 U.S. presidential election precinct-level results, we examine how conservative-media dismissals of hurricane advisories in 2017 influenced evacuation decisions. Likely Trump-voting Florida residents were 10 to 11 percentage points less likely to evacuate Hurricane Irma than Clinton voters (34% versus 45%), a gap not present in prior hurricanes. Results are robust to fine-grain geographic controls, which compare likely Clinton and Trump voters living within 150 m of each other. The rapid surge in media-led suspicion of hurricane forecasts—and the resulting divide in self-protective measures—illustrates a large behavioral consequence of science denialism.
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Wilson, Joshua. "Modeling Microseism Generation by Inhomogeneous Ocean Surface Waves in Hurricane Bonnie Using the Non-Linear Wave Equation." Remote Sensing 10, no. 10 (October 12, 2018): 1624. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs10101624.
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It has been shown that hurricanes generate seismic noise, called microseisms, through the creation and non-linear interaction of ocean surface waves. Here we model microseisms generated by the spatially inhomogeneous waves of a hurricane using the non-linear wave equation where a second-order acoustic field is created by first-order ocean surface wave motion. We treat range-dependent waveguide environments to account for microseisms that propagate from the deep ocean to a receiver on land. We compare estimates based on the ocean surface wave field measured in hurricane Bonnie in 1998 with seismic measurements made roughly 1000 km away in Florida.
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Grosskopf, PhD, CEM, Kevin R. "Manufactured housing and the 2004 hurricane season: Assessing the effectiveness of hazard mitigation." Journal of Emergency Management 3, no. 5 (September 1, 2005): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2005.0049.
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The vast majority of some 22-million manufactured housing residents in the United States are ethnic, elderly, low-income populations. As the fourth most populous and second fastest growing US state, Florida is home to one of the nation’s largest concentrations of manufactured homes in one of its most geographically vulnerable regions. After-action reports from Hurricanes Charley, Jeanne, Frances, and Ivan indicate that all manufactured housing units constructed after the 1994 Federal Manufactured Housing Construction and Safety Standard survived intact, whereas units constructed before 1994 suffered damage ranging from severe to catastrophic. This paper provides manufactured housing damage-assessment data from 60 of 67 Florida counties affected by the 2004 hurricane season according to various federal and state hazard mitigation strategies implemented from 1976 to 1999.
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Hua, Cassandra, Kathryn Hyer, Wenhan Zhang, Jessica Ogarek, and David Dosa. "Hurricane Irma’s Impact on Assisted Living Residents’ Rates of Hospitalization, Nursing Home Placement, and Mortality." Innovation in Aging 4, Supplement_1 (December 1, 2020): 734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geroni/igaa057.2610.
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Abstract Little is known about the impact of hurricanes on the large and increasingly vulnerable population residing in assisted living communities (ALs). The objective of this paper was to leverage a novel methodology to identify Medicare beneficiaries residing in Florida ALs and determine their outcomes associated with Hurricane Irma in 2017. With Medicare enrollment records, claims, and the nursing home Minimum Data Set, we identified a cohort of AL residents in 2015 (n=45,505) and 2017 (n=42,306) and compared their rates of 30-day hospitalization, nursing home placement, and mortality in the two years. AL residents in 2017 had a 10% increase in their 30-day hospitalization rates (3.96 in 2015, 4.34 in 2017), 16% increase in their 30-day nursing home placement rates (1.61 in 2015, 1.87 in 2017), and 22% increase in their 30-day mortality (0.54 in 2015, 0.66 in 2017). Findings suggest Florida AL residents experienced adverse outcomes following Hurricane Irma.
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Chaya, Taryn, Jessica Veenstra, and Melissa Southwell. "After Hurricanes Irma and Matthew: Living Shorelines Stabilize Sediments." American Journal of Undergraduate Research 16, no. 2 (September 30, 2019): 63–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.33697/ajur.2019.024.
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Constructed intertidal oyster reefs, an example of a “living shoreline”, can protect against erosion and loss of habitat, but can they prevent erosion during high-energy storm events such as hurricanes? Oyster reefs were constructed in 2012 within the Guana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve in Northeast Florida to stabilize the shoreline sediment and prevent erosion of an archeological site. Sediment cores were collected behind constructed oyster reefs before and after hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) to study changes in sediment particle size due to these high-energy storms. Pre-hurricane data were collected in 2016 from three different constructed reefs, as well as three control sites where no reef was present. Pre-hurricane sediment profiles behind the constructed reefs consisted of finer sediments, ~36% silt and clay, in the surface ~10-12 cm, with decreasing silt and clay and increasing sand content as depth increased. This was different than the sediment from the control sites with ~4% silt and clay in all depths sampled. Like the sediment profiles before the high energy storms, the post-hurricane sediment data showed a clear layer of finer sediment ~10-12 cm over coarser sediment. Although they were high-energy storms, the storms did not appear to significantly affect the sediment behind the constructed oyster reefs. Sediment profiles remained consistent after these storms but may not remain undisturbed during the next storm without some intervention because the oyster reefs have been degrading. KEYWORDS: Oyster Restoration; Living Shorelines; Hurricanes; Coastal Erosion; Sedimentation; Salt Marsh
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Pfost, Russell L. "Reassessing the Impact of Two Historical Florida Hurricanes." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84, no. 10 (October 2003): 1367–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-84-10-1367.
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Jagger, Thomas H., and James B. Elsner. "Climatology Models for Extreme Hurricane Winds near the United States." Journal of Climate 19, no. 13 (July 1, 2006): 3220–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3913.1.
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Abstract The rarity of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical estimates of extreme wind speed return levels will be unreliable. Here climatology models derived from extreme value theory are estimated using data from the best-track [Hurricane Database (HURDAT)] record. The occurrence of a hurricane above a specified threshold intensity level is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution, and the distribution of the maximum wind is assumed to follow a generalized Pareto distribution. The likelihood function is the product of the generalized Pareto probabilities for each wind speed estimate. A geographic region encompassing the entire U.S. coast vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes is of primary interest, but the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the East Coast regions are also considered. Model parameters are first estimated using a maximum likelihood (ML) procedure. Results estimate the 100-yr return level for the entire coast at 157 kt (±10 kt), but at 117 kt (±4 kt) for the East Coast region (1 kt = 0.514 m s−1). Highest wind speed return levels are noted along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama. The study also examines how the extreme wind return levels change depending on climate conditions including El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and global temperature. The mean 5-yr return level during La Niña (El Niño) conditions is 125 (116) kt, but is 140 (164) kt for the 100-yr return level. This indicates that La Niña years are the most active for the occurrence of strong hurricanes, but that extreme hurricanes are more likely during El Niño years. Although El Niño inhibits hurricane formation in part through wind shear, the accompanying cooler lower stratosphere appears to increase the potential intensity of hurricanes that do form. To take advantage of older, less reliable data, the models are reformulated using Bayesian methods. Gibbs sampling is used to integrate the prior over the likelihood to obtain the posterior distributions for the model parameters conditional on global temperature. Higher temperatures are conditionally associated with more strong hurricanes and higher return levels for the strongest hurricane winds. Results compare favorably with an ML approach as well as with recent modeling and observational studies. The maximum possible near-coastal wind speed is estimated to be 208 kt (183 kt) using the Bayesian (ML) approach.
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Geerts, Bart, and Yu Dawei. "Classification and Characterization of Tropical Precipitation Based on High-Resolution Airborne Vertical Incidence Radar. Part II: Composite Vertical Structure of Hurricanes versus Storms over Florida and the Amazon." Journal of Applied Meteorology 43, no. 11 (November 1, 2004): 1567–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jam2159.1.
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Abstract High-resolution airborne measurements of vertical incidence radar reflectivity and Doppler velocity, as well as coincident upwelling 85-GHz radiances, are analyzed for several Atlantic Ocean hurricanes and for numerous convection-generated systems in Florida and Amazonia. Characteristic reflectivity, hydrometeor motion, and vertical air motion profiles of convective and stratiform precipitation are compared and related to their ice-scattering signature, with an emphasis on the difference between hurricanes and convection-generated storms. Hurricanes are found to be largely and clearly stratiform, displaying a remarkably narrow echo and vertical velocity spectrum. Air currents are inferred to be rising steadily at all levels, even in stratiform regions. Land-based, convection-generated stratiform regions tend to experience low-level descent and mid- to upper-level ascent, although the vertical velocity variability is large. Florida storms produce little stratiform precipitation. Their spectrum of echo and updraft strengths is broad, including some of the highest reflectivities aloft, resulting in very low 85-GHz radiances. Amazonian storms are relatively weak and are more “maritime” in echo, vertical velocity, and ice-scattering characteristics, when compared with those in Florida, especially during a westerly low-level wind regime.
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Mando, BA, Ahed M., Lori Peek, PhD, Lisa M. Brown, PhD, and Bellinda L. King-Kallimanis, PhD Candidate. "Hurricane preparedness and sheltering preferences of Muslims living in Florida." Journal of Emergency Management 9, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2011.0046.
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Objectives: Given the increasing diversity of the US population and the continued threat of hurricane devastation along the heavily populated Gulf Coast region, the lack of research on preparedness and sheltering activities across religious or cultural groups represents a significant gap in the field of hazards and disaster research. To address this void, a questionnaire examining hurricane preparedness attitudes and sheltering preferences was administered to Muslims living in Tampa, Florida.Design: An exploratory study using a cross-sectional survey of Muslim adults who were attending a religious or cultural event.Setting: The Islamic Society of Tampa Bay Area and the Muslim American Society located in Tampa, Florida.Participants: The final convenience sample of 139 adults had a mean age of 38.87 years (±11.8) with males and females equally represented.Results: Significant differences were found in disaster planning activities and confidence in hurricane preparedness. Notably, 70.2 percent of the respondents were unsure about having a plan or were without a plan. Of the 29.7 percent who actually had a plan, 85.4 percent of those individuals were confident in their hurricane preparedness. This study also revealed that safety, cleanliness, access to a prayer room, and privacy were concerns related to using a public shelter during hurricanes. Nearly half of the respondents (47.4 percent) noted that the events of 9/11 influenced their comfort level about staying in a public shelter during a hurricane disaster.Conclusions: Disaster planners should be aware of the religious practices of the Islamic community, encourage disaster planning among diverse groups, and address safety and privacy concerns associated with using public shelters.
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Smith, Shawn R., Justin Brolley, James J. O’Brien, and Carissa A. Tartaglione. "ENSO’s Impact on Regional U.S. Hurricane Activity." Journal of Climate 20, no. 7 (April 1, 2007): 1404–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4063.1.
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Abstract Regional variations in North Atlantic hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. coastline are examined in relation to the phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO warm (cold) phases are known to reduce (increase) hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin as a whole. Using best-track data from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, regional analysis reveals that ENSO cold-phase landfall frequencies are only slightly larger than neutral-phase landfall frequencies along the Florida and Gulf coasts. However, for the East Coast, from Georgia to Maine, a significant decrease in landfall frequency occurs during the neutral ENSO phase as compared to the cold phase. Along the East Coast, two or more major (category 3 or above) hurricanes never made landfall in the observational record (1900–2004) during a single hurricane season classified as an ENSO neutral or warm phase.
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Ezer, Tal. "The Increased Risk of Flooding in Hampton Roads: On the Roles of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, and the Gulf Stream." Marine Technology Society Journal 52, no. 2 (March 1, 2018): 34–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.4031/mtsj.52.2.6.
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AbstractThe impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes a landfall and passes near the Chesapeake Bay, causing a large but short-term (hours to a day) storm surge. The second type is when Atlantic hurricanes like Joaquin (2015) or Matthew (2016) stay offshore for a relatively long time, disrupting the flow of the GS and leading to a longer period (several days or more) of higher water levels and tidal flooding. Analysis of the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes since the 1970s shows that, since the 1990s, there is an increase in the number of days when intense hurricanes (Categories 3‐5) are found in the subtropical western North Atlantic. The observed Florida Current transport since the 1980s often shows less transport and elevated water levels when tropical storms and hurricanes pass near the GS. Better understanding of the remote influence of the GS and offshore storms will improve future prediction of flooding and help mitigation and adaptation efforts.
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Dimentstein, Karen, Carlos Alberto Leyva Jordán, Stephen W. Ponder, Della Lorraine Matheson, Jay M. Sosenko, Zelde Espinel, and James M. Shultz. "Provider-Guided Emergency Support for Persons Living With Type 1 Diabetes During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 14, no. 1 (February 2020): 150–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.17.
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ABSTRACTThe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was especially memorable for 3 major hurricanes—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—that devastated population centers across Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico, respectively. Each storm had unique hazard properties that posed distinctive challenges for persons living with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Diabetes care specialists and educators took on leadership roles for coordinating care and establishing insulin supply lifelines for people with T1D living in the hardest-hit neighborhoods affected by these extreme storms. Strategies and resources were customized for each population. Diabetes specialists strategized to provide mutual support and shared insulins and supplies across sites.
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Ersing, Robin L., Christianne Pearce, Jennifer Collins, Michelle E. Saunders, and Amy Polen. "Geophysical and Social Influences on Evacuation Decision-Making: The Case of Hurricane Irma." Atmosphere 11, no. 8 (August 12, 2020): 851. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080851.
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Understanding the factors that influence evacuation decision-making among local residents is of critical importance to those involved in monitoring and managing weather-related hazards. This study examined both geophysical and social variables that we believe influenced individual decision-making on whether to stay home, seek out a public shelter, or leave the area entirely during Hurricane Irma. A 23-item survey was administered to a convenience sample of adults (n = 234) who resided within a coastal Florida county that received an evacuation warning during Hurricane Irma in 2017. Results suggested sources of information relied on through media, government, family, and social networks contributed to differences in evacuation behavior. Moreover, potential exposure to weather-related conditions, such as flooding and strong winds, along with the likelihood to use available social resources, also influenced decisions to stay or leave the threatened area. Finally, prior evacuation behavior was significantly associated with the decision to evacuate during Hurricane Irma. The decision to evacuate for Hurricane Irma was shown to impact decision-making to evacuate for major hurricanes in the future. If these findings are applied to future storms, a broader conclusion can be made that residents in vulnerable areas may be more likely to evacuate for major hurricanes than they were in the past. Improved understanding of evacuation decision-making can assist emergency managers in preparation and planning to reduce casualties resulting from a hurricane or other weather-related hazard.
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Klotzbach, Philip J., Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke, and Michael Bell. "Continental U.S. Hurricane Landfall Frequency and Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99, no. 7 (July 2018): 1359–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0184.1.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractContinental United States (CONUS) hurricane-related inflation-adjusted damage has increased significantly since 1900. However, since 1900 neither observed CONUS landfalling hurricane frequency nor intensity shows significant trends, including the devastating 2017 season.Two large-scale climate modes that have been noted in prior research to significantly impact CONUS landfalling hurricane activity are El Niño–Southern Oscillation on interannual time scales and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on multidecadal time scales. La Niña seasons tend to be characterized by more CONUS hurricane landfalls than El Niño seasons, and positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation phases tend to have more CONUS hurricane landfalls than negative phases.Growth in coastal population and regional wealth are the overwhelming drivers of observed increases in hurricane-related damage. As the population and wealth of the United States has increased in coastal locations, it has invariably led to the growth in exposure and vulnerability of coastal property along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Unfortunately, the risks associated with more people and vulnerable exposure came to fruition in Texas and Florida during the 2017 season following the landfalls of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Total economic damage from those two storms exceeded $125 billion. Growth in coastal population and exposure is likely to continue in the future, and when hurricane landfalls do occur, this will likely lead to greater damage costs than previously seen. Such a statement is made recognizing that the vast scope of damage from hurricanes often highlights the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of building codes, flood maps, infrastructure, and insurance in at-risk communities.
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&NA;. "Florida Hurricanes Prompt Digital File Storage Recommendations From FDA." Journal of Clinical Engineering 30, no. 1 (January 2005): 13–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00004669-200501000-00023.
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