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Journal articles on the topic 'Hurricanes'
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1
Hosseini, S. R., M. Scaioni, and M. Marani. "ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ATLANTIC HURRICANE FREQUENCY." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3 (April 30, 2018): 527–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-527-2018.
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In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane’s intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (<i>R</i>&thinsp;=&thinsp;0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.
2
Blake, Eric S., and Todd B. Kimberlain. "Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2011." Monthly Weather Review 141, no. 5 (May 1, 2013): 1397–412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00192.1.
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Abstract Overall activity during the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was near average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed, 10 became hurricanes and 6 reached major hurricane strength (category 3 or stronger on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). For comparison, the 1981–2010 averages are about 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Interestingly, although the number of named storms was below average, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were above average. The 2011 season had the most hurricanes since 2006 and the most major hurricanes since 1998. Two hurricanes affected the southwestern coast of Mexico (Beatriz as a category 1 hurricane and Jova as a category 2 hurricane), and the season’s tropical cyclones caused about 49 deaths. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2011 were very skillful.
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Yablonsky, Richard M., and Isaac Ginis. "Limitation of One-Dimensional Ocean Models for Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Model Forecasts." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 12 (December 1, 2009): 4410–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2863.1.
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Abstract Wind stress imposed on the upper ocean by a hurricane can limit the hurricane’s intensity primarily through shear-induced mixing of the upper ocean and subsequent cooling of the sea surface. Since shear-induced mixing is a one-dimensional process, some recent studies suggest that coupling a one-dimensional ocean model to a hurricane model may be sufficient for capturing the storm-induced sea surface temperature cooling in the region providing heat energy to the hurricane. Using both a one-dimensional and a three-dimensional version of the same ocean model, it is shown here that the neglect of upwelling, which can only be captured by a three-dimensional ocean model, underestimates the storm-core sea surface cooling for hurricanes translating at <∼5 m s−1. For hurricanes translating at <2 m s−1, more than half of the storm-core sea surface cooling is neglected by the one-dimensional ocean model. Since the majority of hurricanes in the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean translate at <5 m s−1, the idealized experiments presented here suggest that one-dimensional ocean models may be inadequate for coupled hurricane–ocean model forecasting.
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Shapiro, Lloyd J., and J. Dominique Möller. "Influence of Atmospheric Asymmetries on the Intensification of GFDL Model Forecast Hurricanes." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 10 (October 1, 2005): 2860–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3008.1.
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Abstract Hurricanes Bertha of 1996 and Erin of 2001 both intensified rapidly during part of their time over the North Atlantic. A piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion is applied to model output from GFDL hurricane model forecasts to determine the contributions of atmospheric features in the hurricanes’ environment to their intensification. The diagnosis indicates that Hurricane Bertha’s rapid intensification was directly augmented by an upper-level trough to the north. The significant positive impact of the trough provides quantitative confirmation of the inference of other authors. By contrast environmental interactions associated with troughs to the east and west of Hurricane Erin did not contribute directly to its rapid intensification. The implication of this result is that factors other than the troughs, including sea surface temperature, were sufficient to effect Hurricane Erin’s strengthening. Enhanced upper-level outflow concentrated northeast of the hurricane’s center that was associated with upper-level PV features to the north of Erin, including those ahead of the long-wave trough to its west, could have had some indirect contribution to its intensification. The present authors’ previous piecewise inversion applied to a model forecast of Hurricane Opal of 1995 indicated that an approaching upper-level trough did not significantly contribute to the hurricane’s lower-tropospheric intensification. The conclusions of this paper demonstrate that this result is neither an exception nor the rule.
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Linkov, Faina, Ali Ardalan, Sunita Dodani, Mita Lovalekar, Francois Sauer, Eugene Shubnikov, and Ronald LaPorte. "Building Just-in-Time Lectures during the Prodrome of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 21, no. 2 (April 2006): 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00003538.
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Hurricane Katrina, followed by Hurricane Rita, were some of the most destructive and costliest hurricanes in US history. In addition to causing death and destruction, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma gave rise to an epidemiology of fear.1 Despite the fact that the odds of dying in a hurricane remains low compared to that of motor vehicle crashes, tornadoes, and fires,2–3 the fear of hurricanes was reinforced by disturbing images on television. Often, these images replaced rational thinking. Teachers and public health educators worldwide only had limited materials to educate their students on the risk and risk factors for hurricanes and disasters, demonstrating how poorly the scientific community was prepared to deliver basic scientific facts about hurricanes.
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Klotzbach, Philip J., and William M. Gray. "Causes of the Unusually Destructive 2004 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87, no. 10 (October 1, 2006): 1325–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-87-10-1325.
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The 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season was one of the most active on record with nine hurricanes and six major hurricanes (maximum sustained winds > 49 ms1) forming during the season. All six major hurricanes formed during August and September, causing this two-month period to be the most active on record. The primary reason the 2004 hurricane season will be remembered, however, is because of the four hurricanes that devastated the Caribbean and the southeastern United States (Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). Estimated total U.S. hurricane damage was between $40 and $50 billion, and much additional damage was sustained in the Caribbean. It is shown that a very strong central Atlantic equatorial trough, associated with anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and anomalously weak tropospheric vertical wind shear, combined with extremely favorable midlatitude steering conditions to allow many of the Africa-spawned easterly waves to develop into major hurricanes in the central Atlantic. These major hurricanes then moved on long west-northwest tracks that brought them through the Caribbean and across the southeastern U.S. coastline. The very active and destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season is attributed to two primary features: a strong Atlantic equatorial trough and steering currents that caused hurricanes to track westward across the U.S. coastline.
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Waddell, Samantha L., Dushyantha T. Jayaweera, Mehdi Mirsaeidi, John C. Beier, and Naresh Kumar. "Perspectives on the Health Effects of Hurricanes: A Review and Challenges." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 5 (March 9, 2021): 2756. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18052756.
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Hurricanes are devastating natural disasters which dramatically modify the physical landscape and alter the socio-physical and biochemical characteristics of the environment, thus exposing the affected communities to new environmental stressors, which persist for weeks to months after the hurricane. This paper has three aims. First, it conceptualizes potential direct and indirect health effects of hurricanes and provides an overview of factors that exacerbate the health effects of hurricanes. Second, it summarizes the literature on the health impact of hurricanes. Finally, it examines the time lag between the hurricane (landfall) and the occurrence of diseases. Two major findings emerge from this paper. Hurricanes are shown to cause and exacerbate multiple diseases, and most adverse health impacts peak within six months following hurricanes. However, chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and mental disorders, continue to occur for years following the hurricane impact.
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Arnold, Michael V., David Rushing Dewhurst, Thayer Alshaabi, Joshua R. Minot, Jane L. Adams, Christopher M. Danforth, and Peter Sheridan Dodds. "Hurricanes and hashtags: Characterizing online collective attention for natural disasters." PLOS ONE 16, no. 5 (May 26, 2021): e0251762. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251762.
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We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of n-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics are remarkably similar across storms, but that overall collective attention varies widely even among storms causing comparable deaths and damage. We construct ‘hurricane attention maps’ and observe that hurricanes causing deaths on (or economic damage to) the continental United States generate substantially more attention in English language tweets than those that do not. We find that a hurricane’s Saffir-Simpson wind scale category assignment is strongly associated with the amount of attention it receives. Higher category storms receive higher proportional increases of attention per proportional increases in number of deaths or dollars of damage, than lower category storms. The most damaging and deadly storms of the 2010s, Hurricanes Harvey and Maria, generated the most attention and were remembered the longest, respectively. On average, a category 5 storm receives 4.6 times more attention than a category 1 storm causing the same number of deaths and economic damage.
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Beven, John L., Lixion A. Avila, Eric S. Blake, Daniel P. Brown, James L. Franklin, Richard D. Knabb, Richard J. Pasch, Jamie R. Rhome, and Stacy R. Stewart. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005." Monthly Weather Review 136, no. 3 (March 1, 2008): 1109–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2074.1.
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Abstract The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, including 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina—the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record.
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Hagen, Andrew B., and Christopher W. Landsea. "On the Classification of Extreme Atlantic Hurricanes Utilizing Mid-Twentieth-Century Monitoring Capabilities*." Journal of Climate 25, no. 13 (July 1, 2012): 4461–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00420.1.
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Abstract An investigation is conducted to determine how improvements in observing capabilities and technology may have affected scientists’ ability to detect and monitor Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the mid-twentieth century. Previous studies state that there has been an increase in the number of intense hurricanes and attribute this increase to anthropogenic global warming. Other studies claim that the apparent increased hurricane activity is an artifact of better observational capabilities and improved technology for detecting these intense hurricanes. The present study focuses on the 10 most recent Category 5 hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, from Hurricane Andrew (1992) through Hurricane Felix (2007). These 10 hurricanes are placed into the context of the technology available in the period of 1944–53, the first decade of aircraft reconnaissance. A methodology is created to determine how many of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes likely would have been recorded as Category 5 if they had occurred during this period using only the observations that likely would have been available with existing technology and observational networks. Late-1940s and early-1950s best-track intensities are determined for the entire lifetime of these 10 recent Category 5 hurricanes. It is found that likely only 2 of these 10—both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes—would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period. The results suggest that intensity estimates for extreme tropical cyclones prior to the satellite era are unreliable for trend and variability analysis.
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Nufer, Kevin E., and Gina Wilson-Ramirez. "A Comparison of Patient Needs Following Two Hurricanes." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 19, no. 2 (June 2004): 146–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00001655.
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AbstractObjectives:The New Mexico-1 Disaster Medical Assistance Team (NM-1 DMAT) has responded to more disasters due to hurricanes than disasters from any other type of event. To assess whether defined patient needs may be applied to future hurricanes, the patient needs after Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki were compared. The study question was, “Did patient medical needs differ after these hurricanes?”Methods:Design: Retrospective cohort review. Subjects: All patients evaluated by NM-1 DMAT following Hurricanes Andrew and Iniki. Observations: Age, past medical history, chief complaint, diagnosis, diagnostic tests, treatments, triage level, and disposition. Age was analyzed using Student's t-test, other data were analyzed using the chisquare test.Results:A total of 1,056 patients were evaluated. Age distributions did not differ between events. More patients had co-morbidities after Hurricane Andrew. The only difference in chief complaint was that more patients complained of “cold” symptoms following Hurricane Iniki. The only differences in diagnoses were for upper respiratory infections, which were diagnosed more often after Hurricane Iniki. There were no differences in the administration of tetanus toxoid, antibiotics, or analgesics. Patients evaluated after Hurricane Andrew had more diagnostic tests performed and a higher illness/injury acuity. The proportion of the total number of patients conveyed to a hospital did not differ.Conclusion:Patient needs were similar after Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Iniki and may be applicable for predicting the needs of patients for future hurricanes.
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Rojo-Garibaldi, Berenice, David Alberto Salas-de-León, María Adela Monreal-Gómez, Norma Leticia Sánchez-Santillán, and David Salas-Monreal. "Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 25, no. 2 (April 27, 2018): 291–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-291-2018.
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Abstract. Hurricanes are complex systems that carry large amounts of energy. Their impact often produces natural disasters involving the loss of human lives and materials, such as infrastructure, valued at billions of US dollars. However, not everything about hurricanes is negative, as hurricanes are the main source of rainwater for the regions where they develop. This study shows a nonlinear analysis of the time series of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea obtained from 1749 to 2012. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of the North Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT) and the published historical information. The hurricane time series provides a unique historical record on information about ocean–atmosphere interactions. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the spectral analysis and nonlinear analyses of the time series of the hurricanes showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this chaotic edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually regardless of their category and their behavior on a regular basis.
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Salvatore, James J., Mark A. Ritenour, Brian T. Scully, and L. Gene Albrigo. "(91) Yield Recovery of Commercial Citrus Trees Impacted by the 2004 and 2005 Florida Hurricanes." HortScience 41, no. 4 (July 2006): 1022D—1022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.41.4.1022d.
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Up to three hurricanes (Charley, Frances, and Jeanne) passed over the same citrus-producing areas of Florida in August and September 2004. In October 2005, hurricane Wilma also passed over South Florida. We began evaluating citrus tree recovery in four commercial groves (red and white grapefruit, and `Murcott' tangerine) following the 2004 hurricanes to determine how quickly commercial groves recover following such catastrophic events. We previously reported that, among other things, even branches formed after the last 2004 hurricane matured sufficiently to flower the following spring, but to a lesser extent than older shoots. Here, we report hurricane effects on tree yield, fruit quality, and shelf life. Fruit loss was dramatic following the 2004 hurricanes (>90%). Fruit loss was also substantial following hurricane Wilma, with `Murcott' yields reduced 18% and grapefruit yields reduced 58%-65%. However, in comparison to 2003 pre-hurricane yields, yields following hurricane Wilma declined only 9% for `Murcott,' and 26%-40% for grapefruit. These yield reductions are less than the fruit lost due to the present year's hurricane. Therefore, the citrus trees studied demonstrated tremendous resilience and, if not for another hurricane the following year, would have likely exceeded pre-hurricane yields only 1 year after the devastating 2004 hurricanes. Effects of the hurricanes on harvested fruit quality and shelf life will also be discussed.
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Klotzbach, Philip J., Michael M. Bell, Steven G. Bowen, Ethan J. Gibney, Kenneth R. Knapp, and Carl J. Schreck. "Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 6 (June 1, 2020): E830—E846. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-19-0062.1.
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Abstract Atlantic hurricane seasons have a long history of causing significant financial impacts, with Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combining to incur more than 345 billion USD in direct economic damage during 2017–2018. While Michael’s damage was primarily wind and storm surge-driven, Florence’s and Harvey’s damage was predominantly rainfall and inland flood-driven. Several revised scales have been proposed to replace the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS), which currently only categorizes the hurricane wind threat, while not explicitly handling the totality of storm impacts including storm surge and rainfall. However, most of these newly-proposed scales are not easily calculated in real-time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. In particular, they depend on storm wind radii, which remain very uncertain. Herein, we analyze the relationship between normalized historical damage caused by continental United States (CONUS) landfalling hurricanes from 1900–2018 with both maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP). We show that MSLP is a more skillful predictor of normalized damage than Vmax, with a significantly higher rank correlation between normalized damage and MSLP (rrank = 0.77) than between normalized damage and Vmax (rrank = 0.66) for all CONUS landfalling hurricanes. MSLP has served as a much better predictor of hurricane damage in recent years than Vmax, with large hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) causing much more damage than anticipated from their SSHWS ranking. MSLP is also a more accurately-measured quantity than is Vmax, making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.
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Hodges, Robert E., and James B. Elsner. "The Spatial Pattern of the Sun-Hurricane Connection across the North Atlantic." ISRN Meteorology 2012 (November 14, 2012): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.5402/2012/517962.
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The authors define the spatial response of hurricanes to extremes in the solar cycle. Using an equal-area hexagon tessellation, regional hurricane counts are examined during the period 1851–2010. The response features fewer hurricanes across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and along the eastern seaboard of the United States when sunspots are numerous. In contrast fewer hurricanes are observed in the central North Atlantic when sunspots are few. The sun-hurricane connection is as important as the El Niño Southern Oscillation toward statistically explaining regional hurricane occurrences.
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Brennan, Michael J., Richard D. Knabb, Michelle Mainelli, and Todd B. Kimberlain. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2007." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 12 (December 1, 2009): 4061–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2995.1.
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Abstract The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season had 15 named storms, including 14 tropical storms and 1 subtropical storm. Of these, six became hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). In addition, there were two unnamed tropical depressions. While the number of hurricanes in the basin was near the long-term mean, 2007 became the first year on record with two category 5 landfalls, with Hurricanes Dean and Felix inflicting severe damage on Mexico and Nicaragua, respectively. Dean was the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin to make landfall in 15 yr, since Hurricane Andrew (1992). In total, eight systems made landfall in the basin during 2007, and the season’s tropical cyclones caused approximately 380 deaths. In the United States, one hurricane, one tropical storm, and three tropical depressions made landfall, resulting in 10 fatalities and about $50 million in damage.
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Hallegatte, Stéphane. "The Use of Synthetic Hurricane Tracks in Risk Analysis and Climate Change Damage Assessment." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46, no. 11 (November 1, 2007): 1956–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jamc1532.1.
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Abstract Because of the lack of data on past hurricanes, empirical evaluations of the statistics needed for risk management are very uncertain. An alternative strategy is to use a hurricane model to produce large sets of synthetic hurricane tracks. This method provides, for 11 regions of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, the annual landfall probabilities of hurricanes from each category of the Saffir–Simpson scale. This model can be used to investigate the future of hurricane risks. As a first step, the model is run with a 10% increase in potential intensity. Annual landfall probabilities increase in all regions, especially for the strongest hurricanes. The vulnerability of each U.S. coastal county is then calibrated using data on past hurricanes and their normalized economic losses. Annual hurricane damages increase by +54% in response to a 10% increase in potential intensity, meaning that the average normalized losses caused by hurricanes would increase from approximately $8 billion to about $12 billion per year. These results suggest that hurricane losses are very sensitive to changes in potential intensity and may rise significantly in response to climate change. This paper calls, therefore, for taking into account hurricane damages in the analysis of climate policies, even though other factors like population evolution, economic growth, and preparedness may remain the main drivers of hurricane damages.
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Herrera, Victor Manuel Velasco, Raúl Martell-Dubois, Willie Soon, Graciela Velasco Herrera, Sergio Cerdeira-Estrada, Emmanuel Zúñiga, and Laura Rosique-de la Cruz. "Predicting Atlantic Hurricanes Using Machine Learning." Atmosphere 13, no. 5 (April 29, 2022): 707. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050707.
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Every year, tropical hurricanes affect North and Central American wildlife and people. The ability to forecast hurricanes is essential in order to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities in North and Central America. Machine learning is a newly tool that has been applied to make predictions about different phenomena. We present an original framework utilizing Machine Learning with the purpose of developing models that give insights into the complex relationship between the land–atmosphere–ocean system and tropical hurricanes. We study the activity variations in each Atlantic hurricane category as tabulated and classified by NOAA from 1950 to 2021. By applying wavelet analysis, we find that category 2–4 hurricanes formed during the positive phase of the quasi-quinquennial oscillation. In addition, our wavelet analyses show that super Atlantic hurricanes of category 5 strength were formed only during the positive phase of the decadal oscillation. The patterns obtained for each Atlantic hurricane category, clustered historical hurricane records in high and null tropical hurricane activity seasons. Using the observational patterns obtained by wavelet analysis, we created a long-term probabilistic Bayesian Machine Learning forecast for each of the Atlantic hurricane categories. Our results imply that if all such natural activity patterns and the tendencies for Atlantic hurricanes continue and persist, the next groups of hurricanes over the Atlantic basin will begin between 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2025 ± 1 and 2028 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 3, for hurricane strength categories 2 to 5, respectively. Our results further point out that in the case of the super hurricanes of the Atlantic of category 5, they develop in five geographic areas with hot deep waters that are rather very well defined: (I) the east coast of the United States, (II) the Northeast of Mexico, (III) the Caribbean Sea, (IV) the Central American coast, and (V) the north of the Greater Antilles.
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Dunn, Gordon E. "HURRICANES AND HURRICANE TIDES." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 6 (January 29, 2011): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v6.2.
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Most of the maximum tides of record between Cape Hatteras, N.C., and Brownsville, Tex., have been produced by tropical cyclones, or, as they are generally known in the United States, hurricanes. Some of the highest tides of record northward along the coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod have been produced by hurricanes. From time to time our “northeasters”, which are extra-tropical storms, may also cause millions of dollars of damage along the Atlantic coast between Miami, Fla., and Eastport, Me.
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Brown, Daniel P., John L. Beven, James L. Franklin, and Eric S. Blake. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008*." Monthly Weather Review 138, no. 5 (May 1, 2010): 1975–2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr3174.1.
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Abstract The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical depression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six consecutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurricanes Dolly, Gustav, and Ike. The death toll from the Atlantic tropical cyclones is approximately 750. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2008 is also presented. Official track forecasts set records for accuracy at all lead times from 12 to 120 h, and forecast skill was also at record levels for all lead times. Official intensity forecast errors in 2008 were below the previous 5-yr mean errors and set records at 72–120 h.
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Kimberlain, Todd B., and James B. Elsner. "The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic Hurricane Seasons: A Return of the Tropical-Only Hurricane." Journal of Climate 11, no. 8 (August 1, 1998): 2062–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-11.8.2062.
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Abstract Hurricane activity over the North Atlantic basin during 1995 and 1996 is compared to the combined hurricane activity over the previous four years (1991–94). The earlier period produced a total of 15 hurricanes compared to a total of 20 hurricanes over the latter period. Despite this similarity in numbers, the hurricanes of 1995 and 1996 were generally of the tropical-only variety, which marks a substantial departure from activity during the early 1990s. The return of tropical-only hurricanes to the Atlantic basin is likely the result of several global and local factors, including cool SST conditions in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic. The hurricane activity of 1995 and 1996 is more reminiscent of activity of some seasons during the early and mid-1950s.
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Jagger, Thomas H., and James B. Elsner. "Hurricane Clusters in the Vicinity of Florida." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51, no. 5 (May 2012): 869–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-0107.1.
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AbstractModels that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. Here the authors show that this assumption applied to Florida hurricanes leads to a forecast that underpredicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more hurricanes. The underdispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the coastline. The authors then develop an extension to their earlier statistical model that assumes that the rate of hurricane clusters follows a Poisson distribution with cluster size capped at two hurricanes. Hindcasts from the cluster model better fit the distribution of Florida hurricanes conditional on the climate covariates including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation index. Results are similar to models that parameterize the extra-Poisson variation in the observed counts, including the negative binomial and the Poisson inverse Gaussian models. The authors argue, however, that the cluster model is physically consistent with the way Florida hurricanes tend to arrive in groups.
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Elsner, James B., Sarah E. Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy LaRow, and Ming Zhao. "Sensitivity of Limiting Hurricane Intensity to SST in the Atlantic from Observations and GCMs." Journal of Climate 26, no. 16 (August 6, 2013): 5949–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00433.1.
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Abstract A statistical model for the intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been developed and a new methodology introduced for estimating the sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to changes in sea surface temperature. Here, the authors use this methodology on observed hurricanes and hurricanes generated from two global climate models (GCMs). Hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean during the period 1981–2010 show a sensitivity of 7.9 ± 1.19 m s−1 K−1 (standard error; SE) when over seas warmer than 25°C. In contrast, hurricanes over the same region and period generated from the GFDL High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) show a significantly lower sensitivity with the highest at 1.8 ± 0.42 m s−1 K−1 (SE). Similar weaker sensitivity is found using hurricanes generated from the Florida State University Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU-COAPS) model with the highest at 2.9 ± 2.64 m s−1 K−1 (SE). A statistical refinement of HiRAM-generated hurricane intensities heightens the sensitivity to a maximum of 6.9 ± 3.33 m s−1 K−1 (SE), but the increase is offset by additional uncertainty associated with the refinement. Results suggest that the caution that should be exercised when interpreting GCM scenarios of future hurricane intensity stems from the low sensitivity of limiting GCM-generated hurricane intensity to ocean temperature.
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Wang, Fugui, and Eurico J. D’Sa. "Potential of MODIS EVI in Identifying Hurricane Disturbance to Coastal Vegetation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico." Remote Sensing 2, no. 1 (December 24, 2009): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs2010001.
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Frequent hurricane landfalls along the northern Gulf of Mexico, in addition to causing immediate damage to vegetation, also have long term effects on coastal ecosystem structure and function. This study investigated the utility of using time series enhanced vegetation index (EVI) imagery composited in MODIS product MOD13Q1 for assessing hurricane damage to vegetation and its recovery. Vegetation in four US coastal states disturbed by five hurricanes between 2002 and 2008 were explored by change imagery derived from pre- and post-hurricane EVI data. Interpretation of the EVI changes within months and between years distinguished a clear disturbance pattern caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, and a recovering trend of the vegetation between 2005 and 2008, particularly within the 100 km coastal zone. However, for Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Lili, the disturbance pattern which varied by the change imagery were not noticeable in some images due to lighter vegetation damage. The EVI pre- and post-hurricane differences between two adjacent years and around one month after hurricane disturbance provided the most likely damage area and patterns. The study also revealed that as hurricanes damaged vegetation in some coastal areas, strong precipitation associated with these storms may benefit growth of vegetation in other areas. Overall, the study illustrated that the MODIS product could be employed to detect severe hurricane damage to vegetation, monitor vegetation recovery dynamics, and assess benefits of hurricanes to vegetation.
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Kobluk, David R., and Mary A. Lysenko. "Hurricane effects on shallow-water cryptic reef molluscs, Fiji Islands." Journal of Paleontology 67, no. 5 (September 1993): 798–816. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022336000037069.
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An assemblage of 343 species of cryptic, shelled molluscs was identified in three large samples from shallow subtidal and intertidal shelter habitats under rubble and corals at Malololailai Fiji in 1983, 1984, and 1985. One species was a polyplacophoran, 273 were gastropods (38 families), and 69 were bivalves (21 families). Cryptic gastropods were more abundant than bivalves, but showed a reduction in abundance relative to bivalves from 1983 to 1985. The abundances of many cryptic molluscs show dramatic adjustments from 1983 to 1985, chiefly due to hurricanes in 1983 and 1985, showing a decrease in equitability with increased physical disturbance. The abundance and diversity of molluscan predators in the crypts means that predation in these habitats may be substantial.The gastropod sample diversity showed the greatest change during the 1984 post-hurricane recovery period. The 1985 hurricanes affected the sample diversity by shifting the gastropod diversity closer to what it was after the 1983 hurricane. The bivalves underwent a similar shift in sample diversity, although larger numbers of individuals in proportionately more species survived the hurricanes.The cryptic bivalves exploited space in new crypts, while maintaining their rate of increase in abundance in the recovery period after the 1983 hurricane and through the two hurricanes in 1985. The gastropods declined in abundance after the 1983 hurricane. They recovered after the 1985 hurricanes by doubling their abundance, showing that they could exploit new resources in crypts. This increase in the gastropod population was not proportional to the increase in available cryptic space. This may mean they were still recovering in August 1985, or they may have been unable to capture their portion of cryptic space in competition with other organisms during recovery.The 1985 hurricanes did not have much effect on the overall molluscan diversity, a possible result of pruning by the 1983 hurricane of molluscs unable to survive storms. Because there was only a short interval between the hurricanes, many molluscs that survived the 1983 event were still in the population, so that the cryptic molluscs probably were better able to deal with the effects of the 1985 hurricanes than they would have been before the 1983 hurricane. The result was that the sample diversity after the 1983 hurricane increased during the recovery period but did not decline later even though the population was devastated by hurricanes in 1985. This lends support to intermediate disturbance models linking increasing or stable diversity with disturbances spaced at intervals allowing recovery.
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Chen, Chi-Chung, and Bruce McCarl. "Hurricanes and Possible Intensity Increases: Effects on and Reactions from U.S. Agriculture." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 41, no. 1 (April 2009): 125–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800002595.
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Hurricanes have caused substantial damage in parts of the U.S. Damages are increasing, perhaps as part of a natural cycle or perhaps in part related to global warming. This paper examines the economic damages that hurricanes cause to U.S. agriculture, estimates the increased damage from an increase in hurricane frequency/intensity, and examines the way that sectoral reactions reduce damages. The simulation results show that hurricanes and associated adjustments cause widespread damage and redistribute agricultural welfare. We find that crop mix shifts of vulnerable crops from stricken to nonstricken regions significantly mitigate hurricane damages.
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Mori, Nobuhito, Takenori Shimozono, Taro Arikawa, Daisuke Inazu, Tomoya Shimura, Andrew Kennedy, and Daniel Cox. "NUMERICAL MODELING OF SHORT AND LONG TERM WAVES AND SURGES BY HURRICANE IRMA AND MARIA IN US VIRGIN ISLANDS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.waves.59.
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Two powerful hurricanes successively passed close to US Virgin Islands in September 2017. Hurricane Irma developed into CAT5 with the lowest pressure around 914 hPa on 5th of September and passed north of USVI. Sequentially, CAT5 Hurricane Maria followed the similar track, but passed south of USVI. Two CAT5 hurricanes gave devastated damage along the Caribbean Islands. It is a rare event having two CAT5 with similar tracks within two weeks. This study presents hindcasts of waves and storm surge for the two hurricanes and discusses coastal damages with our survey data targeting on USVI.
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Newcomb, Matthew J. "Hurricane Style." Departures in Critical Qualitative Research 9, no. 4 (2020): 60–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/dcqr.2020.9.4.60.
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While hurricanes are weather events that may become human/ecological tragedies, they might help create stylized moments too. Hurricanes can be distinctive from each other in message and in the tools they use as their material aspects (wind speed or storm surge) interact with cities, social structures, and popular media messages. One way to explore hurricane styles is through forms of affective mapping. This exploration analyzes features of several hurricanes that made landfall in 21st-century North America in combination with considerations of affect around hurricanes. The combination of material and affective elements of hurricanes might allow rhetorical style to serve as a way of rethinking hurricanes and their connections, from the individual level to global climate change.
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Santiago-Vera, Josué D., and Irma Cabrera-Asencio. "Hurricanes and phytophagous insects: Disturbance effects on the abundance of an invasive insect." Journal of Agriculture of the University of Puerto Rico 106, no. 2 (August 8, 2023): 267–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.46429/jaupr.v106i2.21157.
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Hurricanes are known to affect plants and animals and their interactions. Usually, hurricanes defoliate trees and reduce the abundance and density of arthropods. The parasitic arthropod Holopothrips tabebuia was first reported in Puerto Rico in 2006. By 2007, it had established populations on two hosts: Tabebuia aurea and Tabebuia heterophylla. In September 2017, Hurricane María defoliated both hosts. This study aimed to determine the effects of a powerful hurricane on the abundance of this parasite and its relationship with its hosts. Although Hurricane María caused greater defoliation in T. aurea than in T. heterophylla, the post-hurricane abundances and densities of the parasite were much lower in both hosts. A negative correlation between the damage to the host caused by the hurricane and the infestation by the parasite was found. Evidence supports that hurricanes indeed have a negative effect on the dynamics of H. tabebuia and its relationship with its hosts.
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Duryea, Mary, Eliana Kampf, Ramon Littell, and Carlos Rodríguez-Pedraza. "Hurricanes and the Urban Forest: II. Effects on Tropical and Subtropical Tree Species." Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 33, no. 2 (March 1, 2007): 98–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.48044/jauf.2007.011.
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In 1998 when Hurricane Georges (177 km/h) crossed over the entire island of Puerto Rico, and in 2004 when Hurricanes Jeanne (193 km/h) and Charley (233 km/h) struck south Florida, U.S., we measured the impacts of these hurricanes on the urban forest composed of tropical and subtropical species. In addition, we also used previous published data for Hurricane Andrew for some analyses. The percent urban forest loss ranged from 13% for Georges to 16% for Jeanne to 18% for Charley. In Hurricanes Jeanne and Charley, palms survived significantly better than all other trees. Some of the best surviving species in Florida’s hurricanes were gumbo limbo (Bursera simarouba), sea grape (Coccoloba uvifera), strangler fig (Ficus aurea), live oak (Quercus virginiana), laurel oak (Quercus laurifolia), and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum). Of the species measured in Puerto Rico, the species with the highest survival and least branch damage were Santa Maria (Calophyllum calaba), Caribbean pine (Pinus caribaea), schefflera (Schefflera actinophylla), and West Indian mahogany (Swietenia mahogani). Losing leaves during these hurricanes had no relationship with how well trees survived. In Hurricanes Jeanne, Charley, and Georges, 3%, 4%, and 11%, respectively, of the trees that fell damaged property. Native tree species survived better than exotic species in Hurricanes Jeanne and Charley but not in Hurricane Georges. Trees growing in groups had greater survival and less branch loss in Hurricane Jeanne than those growing individually. Wood density was not related to survival or branch loss for tree species in Hurricanes Jeanne, Charley, Georges, or Andrew. Two other measurements of wood strength, modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture, were related to survival and branch loss in Jeanne but not Charley. Tree species with dense crowns had greater survival and less branch loss than moderate- or open-crowned species. Tree species with decurrent growth form survived better than excurrent trees in Hurricane Jeanne with no difference in Charley. Trees with the most rooting space (>7 m2) had the lowest branch loss and the greatest survival in Hurricane Georges. A reanalysis of seven dicot species and their survival in Hurricane Andrew showed that survival for pruned trees was 73% compared with 47% for unpruned trees. A survey of 85 arborists, scientists, and urban foresters ranked species for their wind resistance. Using our results from hurricanes and incorporating results from the survey and the scientific literature, we have developed lists of relative wind resistance for tropical and subtropical tree species. These lists are presented with the caveat that no tree is completely windproof and that other factors such as soil conditions, wind intensity, cultural practices, and tree health and age also contribute to wind firmness.
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Stewart, Alan E. "Gulf Coast Residents Underestimate Hurricane Destructive Potential." Weather, Climate, and Society 3, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 116–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011wcas1077.1.
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Abstract Most people do not realize that hurricane destructiveness increases nonlinearly with increases in storm intensity. Three studies were conducted to examine people’s perceptions of hurricane destructive potential and their likelihood of evacuation. In the first study, undergraduate students (n = 349) provided damage ratings of hurricanes in each Saffir–Simpson category. A majority (84%) of students produced only linearly increasing damage profiles by hurricanes. In the second study, a simple random sample of Gulf Coast residents (n = 402) who participated in a telephone survey when a tropical storm was affecting the U.S. east coast revealed that a majority (77%) thought hurricane damages increased linearly with hurricane category and hence underestimated the damage major hurricanes could produce. In the third study, a simple random sample (n = 396) of Gulf Coast residents participated in an experiment over the telephone during an active phase of the 2008 hurricane season. One-half of the sample received information about the nonlinearly increasing damage potential of hurricanes; the other half received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale category alone. The group in which hurricane damages were framed nonlinearly reported significantly greater self-reported likelihood of evacuation than residents who received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane category information. Studies 1 and 2 suggest that the public needs to learn more about the nonlinear relationship between hurricane intensity and the corresponding damages that may result. Study 3 suggests that framing possible storm damages in the nonlinearly increasing multiples of damages produced relative to a minimal hurricane may increase compliance with evacuation orders.
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Beven II, John L., and Eric S. Blake. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2010*." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 9 (August 31, 2015): 3329–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00264.1.
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Abstract The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was marked by above-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of 19 tropical storms. A total of 12 of the storms became hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). In addition, there were two tropical depressions that did not reach storm strength. These totals were well above the long-term averages of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The areas most affected by the 2010 storms were eastern Mexico, Central America, and the island nations of the western Caribbean Sea, where multiple strikes occurred. In addition, two hurricanes struck eastern Canada. Despite the high level of activity, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2010. The death toll from the 2010 Atlantic tropical cyclones was 189. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2010 is also presented. The 2010 mean track errors were slightly larger than the previous 5-yr average at 12 and 24 h and much smaller at the other forecast times, even though the 2010 track forecasts were more difficult than normal. The 2010 mean intensity forecast errors were larger than the previous 5-yr average at 12–48 h, smaller at the longer forecast times, and had a high bias at all forecast times. As with the track forecasts, the 2010 intensity forecasts were more difficult than normal at all forecast times.
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Avila, Lixion A., and Stacy R. Stewart. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2011*." Monthly Weather Review 141, no. 8 (July 25, 2013): 2577–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00230.1.
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Abstract The 2011 Atlantic season was marked by above-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of 19 tropical storms. Seven of the storms became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes were above the long-term averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Despite the high level of activity, Irene was the only hurricane to hit land in 2011, striking both the Bahamas and the United States. Other storms, however, affected the United States, eastern Canada, Central America, eastern Mexico, and the northeastern Caribbean Sea islands. The death toll from the 2011 Atlantic tropical cyclones is 80. National Hurricane Center mean official track forecast errors in 2011 were smaller than the previous 5-yr means at all forecast times except 120 h. In addition, the official track forecast errors set records for accuracy at the 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-h forecast times. The mean intensity forecast errors in 2011 ranged from about 6 kt (~3 m s−1) at 12 h to about 17 kt (~9 m s−1) at 72 and 120 h. These errors were below the 5-yr means at all forecast times.
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Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle, and Dana Rose Garfin. "Hurricane adaptation behaviors in Texas and Florida: exploring the roles of negative personal experience and subjective attribution to climate change." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 3 (March 1, 2022): 034033. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4858.
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Abstract Understanding the motivation to adopt personal household adaptation behaviors in the face of climate change-related hazards is essential for developing and implementing behaviorally realistic interventions that promote well-being and health. Escalating extreme weather events increase the number of those directly exposed and adversely impacted by climate change. But do people attribute these negative events to climate change? Such subjective attribution may be a cognitive process whereby the experience of negative climate-change-related events may increase risk perceptions and motivate people to act. Here we surveyed a representative sample of 1846 residents of Florida and Texas, many of whom had been repeatedly exposed to hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, facing the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. We assessed prior hurricane negative personal experiences, climate-change-related subjective attribution (for hurricanes), risk appraisal (perceived probability and severity of a hurricane threat), hurricane adaptation appraisal (perceived efficacy of adaptation measures and self-efficacy to address the threat of hurricanes), and self-reported hurricane personal household adaptation. Our findings suggest that prior hurricane negative personal experiences and subjective attribution are associated with greater hurricane risk appraisal. Hurricane subjective attribution moderated the relationship between hurricane negative personal experiences and risk appraisal; in turn, negative hurricane personal experiences, hurricane risk appraisal, and adaptation appraisal were positively associated with self-reported hurricane personal adaptation behaviors. Subjective attribution may be associated with elevated perceived risk for specific climate hazards. Communications that help people understand the link between their negative personal experiences (e.g. hurricanes) and climate change may help guide risk perceptions and motivate protective actions, particularly in areas with repeated exposure to threats.
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Eley, Emily N., Bulusu Subrahmanyam, and Corinne B. Trott. "Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions during Hurricanes Marco and Laura (2020)." Remote Sensing 13, no. 10 (May 15, 2021): 1932. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13101932.
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During August of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was affected by two subsequent storms, Hurricanes Marco and Laura. Hurricane Marco entered the GoM first (22 August) and was briefly promoted to a Category 1 storm. Hurricane Laura followed Marco closely (25 August) and attained Category 4 status after a period of rapid intensification. Typically, hurricanes do not form this close together; this study aims to explain the existence of both hurricanes through the analysis of air-sea fluxes, local thermodynamics, and upper-level circulation. The GoM and its quality of warm, high ocean heat content waters proved to be a resilient and powerful reservoir of heat and moisture fuel for both hurricanes; however, an area of lower ocean heat content due to circulation dynamics was crucial in the evolution of both Marco and Laura. An analysis of wind shear further explained the evolution of both hurricanes. Furthermore, a suite of satellite observations and ocean model outputs were used to evaluate the biophysical modulations in the GoM. The cold core eddy (CCE) and Mississippi River surface plume had the greatest biophysical oceanic responses; the oceanic modulations were initialized by Marco and extended temporally and spatially by Laura. Reduced sea surface temperatures (SST), changes in sea surface salinity (SSS), and changes in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations are related to translation speeds, and respective contributions of hurricane winds and precipitation are evaluated in this work.
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Mendelsohn, Robert. "Predicting Major Storm Surge Levels." Atmosphere 12, no. 6 (June 10, 2021): 756. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060756.
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The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) calculates the surge probability distribution along the coast from their long-term tidal stations. This process is sufficient for predicting the surge from common storms but tends to underestimate large surges. Across 23 long-term tidal stations along the East Coast of the United States, 100-year surges were observed 49 times, although they should have occurred only 23 times. We hypothesize that these 100-year surges are not the tail outcome from common storms but are actually caused by major hurricanes. Matching these 100-year surges with major hurricanes revealed that major hurricanes caused 43 of the 49 surges. We consequently suggest a revised approach to estimating the surge probability distribution. We used tidal data to estimate the probability of common surges but analyzed major hurricane surges separately, using the return rate of major hurricanes and the observed surge from each major hurricane to predict hurricane surges. The revision reveals that expected coastal flooding damage is higher than we thought, especially in the southeast United States.
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Schafer, Tracey, Nicole Dix, Shannon Dunnigan, K. Ramesh Reddy, and Todd Z. Osborne. "Impacts of Hurricanes on Nutrient Export and Ecosystem Metabolism in a Blackwater River Estuary Complex." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 5 (May 13, 2022): 661. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10050661.
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Hurricanes have the ability to export uncharacteristically large amounts of nutrients from terrestrial systems into riverine and estuarine networks, altering rates of ecosystem metabolism throughout the aquatic continuum. In order to explore these impacts and compare these values to common precipitation events, water quality and chemistry data from the National Estuarine Research Reserve’s System Wide Monitoring Program (NERR-SWMP) were combined with discharge data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to calculate biogeochemical export from a Florida coastal blackwater river. This analysis was focused on the years 2016–2020, when Hurricanes Matthew, Irma, and Dorian impacted the landscape of Florida’s Atlantic coast. Hurricane Irma, the only hurricane to occur after especially wet summer conditions, dwarfed the other two hurricanes in the export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with an increase from <5 kg DOC day−1 to approximately 250 kg DOC day−1. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and most nitrogen species export exhibited similar trends. Additionally, other spikes in export occurred during non-hurricane months, and no significant differences between monthly export values were found between hurricane and non-hurricane months. However, net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) was calculated at similar intervals and revealed significantly lower NEM during months of hurricane passage. On monthly timescales, this work suggests that lower-category hurricanes might not significantly impact organic matter export, but the shortened export interval associated with hurricane impacts produces significant implications for NEM.
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Martinez-Amaya, Javier, Cristina Radin, and Veronica Nieves. "Advanced Machine Learning Methods for Major Hurricane Forecasting." Remote Sensing 15, no. 1 (December 26, 2022): 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15010119.
Full textAbstract:
Hurricanes, rapidly increasing in complexity and strength in a warmer world, are one of the worst natural disasters in the 21st century. Further studies integrating the changing hurricane features are thus crucial to aid in the prediction of major hurricanes. With this in mind, we present a new framework based on automated decision tree analysis, which has the capability to identify the most important cloud structural parameters from GOES imagery as predictors for hurricane intensification potential in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The proposed framework has been proved effective for predicting major hurricanes with an overall accuracy of 73% from 6 to 54 h in advance (both regions combined).
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Alemany, Sheila, Jonathan Beltran, Adrian Perez, and Sam Ganzfried. "Predicting Hurricane Trajectories Using a Recurrent Neural Network." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 33 (July 17, 2019): 468–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v33i01.3301468.
Full textAbstract:
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given the complexity and nonlinearity of weather data, a recurrent neural network (RNN) could be beneficial in modeling hurricane behavior. We propose the application of a fully connected RNN to predict the trajectory of hurricanes. We employed the RNN over a fine grid to reduce typical truncation errors. We utilized their latitude, longitude, wind speed, and pressure publicly provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to predict the trajectory of a hurricane at 6-hour intervals. Results show that this proposed technique is competitive to methods currently employed by the NHC and can predict up to approximately 120 hours of hurricane path.
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Donihue, Colin M., Alex M. Kowaleski, Jonathan B. Losos, Adam C. Algar, Simon Baeckens, Robert W. Buchkowski, Anne-Claire Fabre, et al. "Hurricane effects on Neotropical lizards span geographic and phylogenetic scales." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 19 (April 27, 2020): 10429–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2000801117.
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Extreme climate events such as droughts, cold snaps, and hurricanes can be powerful agents of natural selection, producing acute selective pressures very different from the everyday pressures acting on organisms. However, it remains unknown whether these infrequent but severe disruptions are quickly erased by quotidian selective forces, or whether they have the potential to durably shape biodiversity patterns across regions and clades. Here, we show that hurricanes have enduring evolutionary impacts on the morphology of anoles, a diverse Neotropical lizard clade. We first demonstrate a transgenerational effect of extreme selection on toepad area for two populations struck by hurricanes in 2017. Given this short-term effect of hurricanes, we then asked whether populations and species that more frequently experienced hurricanes have larger toepads. Using 70 y of historical hurricane data, we demonstrate that, indeed, toepad area positively correlates with hurricane activity for both 12 island populations of Anolis sagrei and 188 Anolis species throughout the Neotropics. Extreme climate events are intensifying due to climate change and may represent overlooked drivers of biogeographic and large-scale biodiversity patterns.
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Kimberlain, Todd B., and Michael J. Brennan. "Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2009." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 6 (June 1, 2011): 1657–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3497.1.
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Abstract The 2009 eastern North Pacific hurricane season had near normal activity, with a total of 17 named storms, of which seven became hurricanes and four became major hurricanes. One hurricane and one tropical storm made landfall in Mexico, directly causing four deaths in that country along with moderate to severe property damage. Another cyclone that remained offshore caused an additional direct death in Mexico. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2009 were quite skillful.
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Heaton, Reid, Bo Song, Thomas Williams, William Conner, Zachary Baucom, and Brian Williams. "Twenty-Seven Year Response of South Carolina Coastal Plain Forests Affected by Hurricane Hugo." Plants 12, no. 4 (February 4, 2023): 691. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants12040691.
Full textAbstract:
In 1989, Hurricane Hugo inflicted catastrophic damage on approximately 1.8 million ha of forested land in South Carolina. The purpose of this study was to monitor species compositional shifts and structural changes in several forest types following the hurricane’s disturbance. The immediate consequences of hurricane damage are well documented, but there are few studies based on the long-term compositional and structural changes that may result from hurricane disturbance, especially in temperate forest ecosystems. Forty-two forested plots were monitored within four study areas that received varying degrees of hurricane damage. Inventories included species, damage class, tree diameter, and regeneration. The objectives of this study were (1) to compare the recovery speed of wetland forests (e.g., bottomland hardwood swamps and cypress-tupelo swamps) to that of upland pine and hardwood forests; (2) to discover how the degree of hurricane damage can affect the timing and the pattern of forest recovery in the coastal plain; and (3) to compare individual species response patterns across different forest types and at different levels of initial damage. Over the 27-year period following the hurricane, successional pathways have been variable among plots of different forest types and intensity of initial disturbance. We have observed an expected increase in basal area (BA) following the disturbance. Sapling populations in many species have increased dramatically, and some of these populations have begun to thin in recent years. In several forest types, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.—not a predominant species in these sites prior to the hurricane) responded quickly and overtook some dominant species in BA and tree/sapling abundance. Several other species that were not a major component of the tree strata (wax myrtle [Morella cerifera (L.) Small], green ash [Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh.], and the invasive Chinese tallow [Triadica sebifera (L.) Small]) showed a large increase in sapling population. Overall, recovery speed and species resilience were specific to forest types and damage severity. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes may increase in the future as sea surface temperatures rise. Understanding how coastal forests respond to major hurricanes in the short-term and the long-term will aid us in preparing for future hurricanes and for potential changes in disturbance regimes.
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Berg, Robert J., and Lixion A. Avila. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2009." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 4 (April 2011): 1049–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3476.1.
Full textAbstract:
The 2009 Atlantic season was marked by below-average tropical cyclone activity with the formation of nine tropical storms, the fewest since the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season. Of these, three became hurricanes and two strengthened into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). In addition, there were two tropical depressions that did not reach storm strength. The numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes were below the long-term averages of 11 named storms and 6 hurricanes, although the number of major hurricanes equaled the long-term average of 2. Many of the cyclones remained relatively weak. Only one tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Claudette, made landfall in the United States, although Ida affected the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm before moving inland as an extratropical cyclone. Hurricane Bill and Tropical Storm Danny indirectly affected the East Coast by producing high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion; Bill also produced tropical storm conditions over Bermuda and parts of Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Ida made landfall in Nicaragua and also affected parts of Honduras, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba. Tropical Storm Erika had minor effects on the northern Leeward Islands, mainly in the form of light rain, and Tropical Storm Grace moved through the Azores with little impact. The death toll from the 2009 Atlantic tropical cyclones was six. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2009 is also presented. Official track errors and forecast skill set records for accuracy at lead times between 24 and 72 h. Official intensity forecast errors were mostly larger than the previous 5-yr means, although intensity forecast skill was at or above historical highs since the intensity skill baseline [i.e., Decay-Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast model version 5 (Decay-SHIFOR5)] errors were well above average.
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Cialone, Mary A., Jane M. Smith, Julie D. Rosati, Michael L. Follum, Chris Massey, Andrew J. Condon, and Robert C. Thomas. "USACE PREPARATION AND RESPONSE TO 2017 HURRICANES HARVEY, IRMA, AND MARIA." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.83.
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The year 2017 was an extremely active hurricane season with five hurricanes that reached major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) on the United States (U.S) or the Caribbean coast. This paper focuses on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) preparation and response to the three most destructive events (Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria). Each of these storms posed unique challenges to the people and infrastructure in its path.
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Beven, John L., Lixion A. Avila, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart. "Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2003." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 5 (May 1, 2005): 1403–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr2917.1.
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Abstract The tropical cyclone activity for 2003 in the eastern North Pacific hurricane basin is summarized. Activity during 2003 was slightly below normal. Sixteen tropical storms developed, seven of which became hurricanes. However, there were no major hurricanes in the basin for the first time since 1977. The first hurricane did not form until 24 August, the latest observed first hurricane at least since reliable satellite observations began in 1966. Five tropical cyclones made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico, resulting in 14 deaths.
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Rappaport, Edward N., James L. Franklin, Andrea B. Schumacher, Mark DeMaria, Lynn K. Shay, and Ethan J. Gibney. "Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change before U.S. Gulf Coast Landfall." Weather and Forecasting 25, no. 5 (October 1, 2010): 1380–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222369.1.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone intensity change remains a forecasting challenge with important implications for such vulnerable areas as the U.S. coast along the Gulf of Mexico. Analysis of 1979–2008 Gulf tropical cyclones during their final two days before U.S. landfall identifies patterns of behavior that are of interest to operational forecasters and researchers. Tropical storms and depressions strengthened on average by about 7 kt for every 12 h over the Gulf, except for little change during their final 12 h before landfall. Hurricanes underwent a different systematic evolution. In the net, category 1–2 hurricanes strengthened, while category 3–5 hurricanes weakened such that tropical cyclones approach the threshold of major hurricane status by U.S. landfall. This behavior can be partially explained by consideration of the maximum potential intensity modified by the environmental vertical wind shear and hurricane-induced sea surface temperature reduction near the storm center associated with relatively low oceanic heat content levels. Linear least squares regression equations based on initial intensity and time to landfall explain at least half the variance of the hurricane intensity change. Applied retrospectively, these simple equations yield relatively small forecast errors and biases for hurricanes. Characteristics of most of the significant outliers are explained and found to be identifiable a priori for hurricanes, suggesting that forecasters can adjust their forecast procedures accordingly.
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Abellon, Killian, Amelia Murphy, and Anika Anderson. "Overblown? Analyzing Wind Speed in the Hurricane Warning Response System." McGill Science Undergraduate Research Journal 17, no. 1 (April 8, 2022): 12–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.26443/msurj.v17i1.171.
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The role of wind speed in determining the impacts of hurricanes is examined via statistical analysis of Cate- gory 2-5 hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. Atlantic basin coastline, including Puerto Rico’s coast, from 1970-2020. The results indicate a positive yet statistically insignificant correlation between wind speed and hurricane deaths, cost of damages and federally obligated recovery aid. Other factors, such as storm surge, rainfall, and inland inundation, may be more strongly correlated with these impacts. The results are contextualized by a wealth of literature pointing to the role of social, political, and economic factors in determining the destructiveness of hurricanes. Finally, alternative indices to the popular Saffir-Simpson hurricane hazard scale – which relies on wind speed – are examined. As climate change advances and hurricanes become in- creasingly frequent and severe, more comprehensive hazard-rating scales may provide the basis for a more effective warning-response system, ultimately bolstering the resilience of coastal areas.
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Oliver-Smith, Anthony. "Hurricanes, Climate Change, and the Social Construction of Risk." International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters 38, no. 1 (March 2020): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/028072702003800101.
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The advent of climate change is now increasing awareness of the potential of the intensifying peril and frequency of hurricanes for island and coastal dwellers. Considering current demographic data on migration, residence and development, the climatological findings regarding hurricane frequency, intensity, precipitation, and size become particularly menacing. However, despite the intensification and frequency of hurricanes, recognition of the social construction of risk and disasters requires that greater attention be paid to the social and economic drivers of the conditions of exposure and vulnerability that characterize coastal and island communities. The intersection of increasingly intense and frequent hurricanes associated with climate change is discussed in the context of patterns of social, demographic and economic change in the state of Florida in the United States which is located on many of the major paths of hurricanes generated in the Atlantic basin. The paper concludes with an assessment of the role that anthropologists must play in research, practice and policy making reducing the risk of disasters related to hurricane impact.
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McWilliams, Edward L. "669 The Impact of Gulf Coast Hurricanes on Pecans, Ornamental Trees, and Invasive Exotic Species." HortScience 34, no. 3 (June 1999): 563D—563. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.34.3.563d.
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Hurricanes strike the Gulf Coast of the United States every few years. We briefly describe generalized hurricane tracks for the Gulf Coast and vegetation damage using NDVI satellite imagery as well as slides of damaged urban trees in Florida. The impact of recent hurricanes on both pecan defoliation and production and on initial damage and subsequent recovery of various ornamental trees is described. Pecan harvests were greatly reduced by hurricanes that struck late in the season in both Alabama and Texas. Varieties of pecans varied in their susceptibility to various stresses. Pine forests were sometimes devastated by certain hurricanes while live oaks, various shrubs, and important insects often survived the same storms with little damage. Many exotic ornamental plants including Chinese tallow are either adventive or invasive along the Gulf Coast. Species escape from cultivation over a long period of time and exhibit different invasion lag phases. In Texas and Louisiana, hurricane damage to native trees allowed Chinese tallow seedlings and saplings to subsequently dominate some areas as a result of the disturbance. One delayed ecological response to hurricanes and typhoons is an acceleration of ongoing exotic plant invasions.
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Franklin, James L., and Daniel P. Brown. "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2006." Monthly Weather Review 136, no. 3 (March 1, 2008): 1174–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2377.1.
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Abstract The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. A verification of National Hurricane Center official forecasts during 2006 is also presented. Ten cyclones attained tropical storm intensity in 2006. Of these, five became hurricanes and two became “major” hurricanes. Overall activity was near the long-term mean, but below the active levels of recent seasons. For the first time since 2001, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States. Elsewhere in the basin, hurricane-force winds were experienced in Bermuda (from Florence) and in the Azores (from Gordon). Official track forecast errors were smaller in 2006 than during the previous 5-yr period (by roughly 15%–20% out to 72 h), establishing new all-time lows at forecast projections through 72 h. Since 1990, 24–72-h official track forecast errors have been reduced by roughly 50%.