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Journal articles on the topic 'Hydrological hazard'
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1
Caloiero, Tommaso. "Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention." Geosciences 8, no. 11 (October 26, 2018): 389. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8110389.
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As a result of the considerable impacts of hydrological hazard on water resources, on natural environments and human activities, as well as on human health and safety, climate variability and climate change have become key issues for the research community. In fact, a warmer climate, with its heightened climate variability, will increase the risk of hydrological extreme phenomena, such as droughts and floods. The Special Issue “Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention” presents a collection of scientific contributions that provides a sample of the state-of-the-art and forefront research in this field. In particular, innovative modelling methods for flood hazards, regional flood and drought analysis, and the use of satellite and climate data for drought analysis were the main topics and practice targets that the papers published in this Special Issue aimed to address.
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Nashwan, Mohamed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung, Kamal Ahmed, and Young Song. "Development of Climate-Based Index for Hydrologic Hazard Susceptibility." Sustainability 10, no. 7 (June 26, 2018): 2182. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10072182.
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An index has been developed for the assessment of geographical distribution of susceptibility to hydrological hazards using easily available climate data. Catastrophe fuzzy theory and data clustering methods were used to avoid subjectivity in the estimation of the index of multiple climate indicators. The proposed index was used for the estimation of geographical distribution of hydrological hazard susceptibility index (HHSI) in Peninsular Malaysia using gauge-based, gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1948–2010. The results showed that the northeast regions of Peninsular Malaysia are more susceptible to hydrological hazard, which matches very well with the general conception of the hydrological hazard susceptible zones. Assessment of susceptibility for sliding different 30-year periods between 1950 and 2010 revealed that HHSI has increased in the south and decreased in the northeast of the peninsula. The decrease in temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the northeast and the increase in other parts can become the causes of spatial changes in hazard susceptibility. The changes of HHSI in recent years compared to the base period revealed the increase of hazard susceptibility in the south in the range of 8.81% to 21.01%, while a significant decrease (>−31.84%) was observed in the northeast.
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Paliaga, Guido, Fabio Luino, Laura Turconi, Fausto Marincioni, and Francesco Faccini. "Exposure to Geo-Hydrological Hazards of the Metropolitan Area of Genoa, Italy: A Multi-Temporal Analysis of the Bisagno Stream." Sustainability 12, no. 3 (February 4, 2020): 1114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12031114.
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Geo-hydrological risk reduction policies are becoming a critical challenge for environmental sustainability, both at the national and international levels. The reason is twofold: On the one hand, climate change has increase rainfall frequency and intensity, while on the other, reckless urban expansion has increased exposure to such hazards over time. Italy is a country that is very vulnerable to flood and landslide hazard; the city of Genoa, which, in recent decades, has been frequently hit by severe floods, has risen to symbolize Italian geo-hydrological risk. Recent studies on Genoa’s geo-hydrological hazard have focused on the analysis of hydro-geomorphological features of the Bisagno stream basin, yet their main focus was on hazard control. Very little research has been done to enhance the understanding of the source of risk in such catchments. This paper presents a study on the increased urban exposure and vulnerability to geo-hydrological hazard along the Bisagno stream catchment area over the last 200 years. Morphometric analyses were coupled with historical documents showing the evolution of the urban layout in this area. The results show that the “Bisagno Master Plan”, a territorial planning strategy aimed at reducing geo-hydrological hazard and risk, has not produced the expected benefits. In spite of the plan, critical changes in land use and the hydrographic network, along with uncontrolled anthropization of the Genoa metropolitan area, has continued over the last two decades.
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Gude, Martin, and Dieter Scherer. "Snowmelt and slushflows: hydrological and hazard implications." Annals of Glaciology 26 (1998): 381–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/1998aog26-1-381-384.
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In many high-latitude areas, slushflows occur frequently during the snowmelt period but information on the initiation mechanism is rare. Field observations and measurements of slushflows in northwestern Spitsbergen and in northern Sweden demonstrate the role of meltwater accumulation and the hydraulic pressure gradient in the release process. Snow metamorphism is revealed to be of minor importance in the observed events. The monitoring of water-pressure development in a saturated snow cover demonstrates that preferred release areas are within low-gradient valley sections, where meltwater inflow is higher than outflow.Slushflows consist of mudflow-like flowage of water-saturated snow along stream courses. They represent transitional processes between fluvial floods and avalanches. On the other hand, they possess unique characteristics concerning release and movement. The comparative evaluation of definition items for fluvial floods, slushflows and avalanches offers hasic data suitable for a risk assessment.
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Gude, Martin, and Dieter Scherer. "Snowmelt and slushflows: hydrological and hazard implications." Annals of Glaciology 26 (1998): 381–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0260305500015135.
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In many high-latitude areas, slushflows occur frequently during the snowmelt period but information on the initiation mechanism is rare. Field observations and measurements of slushflows in northwestern Spitsbergen and in northern Sweden demonstrate the role of meltwater accumulation and the hydraulic pressure gradient in the release process. Snow metamorphism is revealed to be of minor importance in the observed events. The monitoring of water-pressure development in a saturated snow cover demonstrates that preferred release areas are within low-gradient valley sections, where meltwater inflow is higher than outflow.Slushflows consist of mudflow-like flowage of water-saturated snow along stream courses. They represent transitional processes between fluvial floods and avalanches. On the other hand, they possess unique characteristics concerning release and movement. The comparative evaluation of definition items for fluvial floods, slushflows and avalanches offers hasic data suitable for a risk assessment.
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Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, Evangelos Koutronas, Muhammad Tahir, and Norma Mansor. "Hydrological hazard assessment: THE 2014–15 Malaysia floods." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 24 (September 2017): 264–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.06.005.
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Gu, Lei, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Chong-Yu Xu, and Hua Chen. "Drought hazard transferability from meteorological to hydrological propagation." Journal of Hydrology 585 (June 2020): 124761. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124761.
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Maris, Fotios, Kyriaki Kitikidou, Spyridon Paparrizos, Konstantinos Karagiorgos, Simeon Potouridis, and Sven Fuchs. "Regional Hazard Analysis For Use In Vulnerability And Risk Assessment." Quaestiones Geographicae 34, no. 3 (September 1, 2015): 77–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2015-0026.
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Abstract A method for supporting an operational regional risk and vulnerability analysis for hydrological hazards is suggested and applied in the Island of Cyprus. The method aggregates the output of a hydrological flow model forced by observed temperatures and precipitations, with observed discharge data. A scheme supported by observed discharge is applied for model calibration. A comparison of different calibration schemes indicated that the same model parameters can be used for the entire country. In addition, it was demonstrated that, for operational purposes, it is sufficient to rely on a few stations. Model parameters were adjusted to account for land use and thus for vulnerability of elements at risk by comparing observed and simulated flow patterns, using all components of the hydrological model. The results can be used for regional risk and vulnerability analysis in order to increase the resilience of the affected population.
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Zhou, Qianqian, Jiongheng Su, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Yi Ren, Jinhua Luo, Zijian Ye, and Junman Feng. "A GIS-Based Hydrological Modeling Approach for Rapid Urban Flood Hazard Assessment." Water 13, no. 11 (May 25, 2021): 1483. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13111483.
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Urban floods are detrimental to societies, and flood mapping techniques provide essential support for decision-making on the better management of flood risks. This study presents a GIS-based flood characterization methodology for the rapid and efficient identification of urban flood-prone areas, which is especially relevant for large-scale flood hazards and emergency assessments for data-scarce studies. The results suggested that optimal flood mapping was achieved by adopting the median values of the thresholds for local depression extraction, the topographic wetness index (TWI) and aggregation analyses. This study showed the constraints of the depression extraction and TWI methods and proposed a methodology to improve the performance. A new performance indicator was further introduced to improve the evaluation ability of hazard mapping. It was shown that the developed methodology has a much lower demand on the data and computation efforts in comparison to the traditional two-dimensional models and, meanwhile, provides relatively accurate and robust assessments of flood hazards.
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Massazza, Giovanni, Paolo Tamagnone, Catherine Wilcox, Elena Belcore, Alessandro Pezzoli, Theo Vischel, Gérémy Panthou, et al. "Flood Hazard Scenarios of the Sirba River (Niger): Evaluation of the Hazard Thresholds and Flooding Areas." Water 11, no. 5 (May 15, 2019): 1018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11051018.
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In Sahelian countries, a vast number of people are still affected every year by flood despite the efforts to prevent or mitigate these catastrophic events. This phenomenon is exacerbated by the incessant population growth and the increase of extreme natural events. Hence, the development of flood management strategies such as flood hazard mapping and Early Warning Systems has become a crucial objective for the affected nations. This study presents a comprehensive hazard assessment of the Nigerien reach of the Sirba River, the main tributary Middle Niger River. Hazard thresholds were defined both on hydrological analysis and field effects, according to national guidelines. Non-stationary analyses were carried out to consider changes in the hydrological behavior of the Sirba basin over time. Data from topographical land surveys and discharge gauges collected during the 2018 dry and wet seasons were used to implement the hydraulic numerical model of the analyzed reach. The use of the proposed hydraulic model allowed the delineation of flood hazard maps as well the calculation of the flood propagation time from the upstream hydrometric station and the validation of the rating curves of the two gauging sites. These significative outcomes will allow the implementation of the Early Warning System for the river flood hazard and risk reduction plans preparation for each settlement.
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Spachinger, Karl, Wolfgang Dorner, Rudolf Metzka, Kamal Serrhini, and Sven Fuchs. "Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps – Visualisation of hydrological risks." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 4 (November 1, 2008): 012043. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1307/4/1/012043.
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Sirangelo, B., and G. Braca. "Identification of hazard conditions for mudflow occurrence by hydrological model." Engineering Geology 73, no. 3-4 (June 2004): 267–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.008.
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Schroeter, Serena, Harald Richter, Craig Arthur, David Wilke, Mark Dunford, Martin Wehner, and Elizabeth Ebert. "Forecasting the impacts of severe weather." January 2021 10.47389/36, No 1 (January 2021): 76–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.47389/36.1.76.
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National meteorological and hydrological services provide severe weather warning information to inform decision-making by emergency management organisations. Such information also helps communities to take defensive and mitigating actions prior to and during severe weather events. Globally, warning information issued by meteorological and hydrological services varies widely. This can range from solely hazard-based to impact-based forecasting encompassing the exposure and vulnerability of communities to severe weather. The most advanced of these systems explicitly and quantitatively model the impacts of hazards on affected assets or infrastructure such as vehicle traffic or housing. Incorporating impact information into severe weather warnings contextualises and personalises the warning information, increasing the likelihood that individuals and communities will take preparatory action. However, providing useful and detailed impact information remains a challenge. This paper reviews a selection of current severe weather warnings and impact forecasting capabilities globally and highlights uncertainties that limit the forecasting and modelling of multi-hazard events.
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Abuzied, Sara M., and Basma M. H. Mansour. "Geospatial hazard modeling for the delineation of flash flood-prone zones in Wadi Dahab basin, Egypt." Journal of Hydroinformatics 21, no. 1 (August 28, 2018): 180–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2018.043.
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Abstract This study delineated flash flood hazard zones leading to vast destruction to infrastructure, property, and loss of life. An integrated approach using remote sensing and geographic information systems was applied to reveal flash flood-prone zones. The study approach evaluated topographic, geologic, and hydrologic factors holistically to assess these hazard zones. The morphometric characteristics of Wadi Dahab sub-basins were supported by topographic, geologic, and hydrologic information. Data from Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission and Operational Land Imager imagery were analyzed to characterize hydrological morphometrics, lithology, soil types, and land use. A Natural Resources Conservation Service model was selected to calculate runoff depth at ungauged watersheds. A spatially distributed unit hydrograph was adopted to create the flow time and runoff velocity. The Flashflood Hazard Model was developed by spatial integration of all contributing factors. An analytical hierarchy process was adopted for the logic ranking of the effective factors. The flash flood hazard map classifies Wadi Dahab basin into five relative hazard zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. The highly hazardous zones are distributed at the downstream of Wadi Dahab basin corresponding to steep topography and Precambrian rocks. The hazard map was validated using the flash flood markers defined from field observations.
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Sivashankari, Dubey, Priyadarshini, and Shekhar. "Integrated Hydrological Modelling over Upstream Catchments of Himalayan Rivers and Assessment of Hydrological Events in Tehri Dam and Srinagar Catchments." Proceedings 24, no. 1 (September 30, 2019): 13. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/iecg2019-06210.
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Flash floods in the Himalayan Rivers result in hundreds of deaths causing a sudden hazard in a minimum period of time. These hydrological events of mostly happen due to cloudburst incidents in the Indian Himalayas, with an unexpected heavy overwhelming of precipitation in a short interval over a small region. These extreme hydrological events are assessed through the analytical hierarchy process for the upper stream catchments of Tehri Dam and Srinagar. The morphometry characteristics of these catchments are collaboratively integrated with the SAC (Space Application Centre) hydro simulated discharge and rainfall data to identify the flash-flood-vulnerable hazard region over the surrounding catchment regions.
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Fitria, Lulu Mari, and Septiana Fathurrohmah. "DROUGHT HAZARD CHARACTERISTIC USING SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT INDEX MODELLING." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 5, no. 1 (April 25, 2018): 91. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.5.1.91-100.
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Drought happen when the rainfall decreases in the extreme condition for long period of time (above normal). Drought hazard mapping can be analyzed by various approaches, like environmental approach, ecological approach, hydrological approach, meteorological approach, geological approach, agricultural approach, and many other. Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (in Indonesia a.k.a BMKG) measures the drought hazard by utilizing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)The comparison of rainfall rate through SPI has positive correlation with drought type, for example SPI 3 indicates agricultural drought; while SPI 6, SPI 9 and SPI 12 indicate hydrological drought. The analysis of drought hazard level also can be done using soil moisture level measurement. Soil moisture is the result of water shortages in the hydroclimatological concept. Soil moisture analysis utilizes several influenced variables, such as soil water, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and percolation. Each of variables was analyzed using GIS as a method of soil moisture modeling. Drought index level analysis is using soil moisture deficit index, which indicates that drought occurs if the index score less than (-0.5). Some assumptions used in this modeling are both SMDI modeling using WHC (Water Holding Capacity) and without using WHC. This modeling used medium term analysis during 2007-2012 to prove the occurrence of extreme drought on 2009 and 2012 for measurement of drought level in agriculture area. Based on SMDI, it is known that the dangers of SMDI drought have positive correlation to SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 9, and SPI 12, where SPI is in accordance with the interpretation of meteorolgy, agriculture, and hydrological drought indices.
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Chang, Fi-John, and Shenglian Guo. "Advances in Hydrologic Forecasts and Water Resources Management." Water 12, no. 6 (June 24, 2020): 1819. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12061819.
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The impacts of climate change on water resources management as well as the increasing severe natural disasters over the last decades have caught global attention. Reliable and accurate hydrological forecasts are essential for efficient water resources management and the mitigation of natural disasters. While the notorious nonlinear hydrological processes make accurate forecasts a very challenging task, it requires advanced techniques to build accurate forecast models and reliable management systems. One of the newest techniques for modelling complex systems is artificial intelligence (AI). AI can replicate the way humans learn and has the great capability to efficiently extract crucial information from large amounts of data to solve complex problems. The fourteen research papers published in this Special Issue contribute significantly to the uncertainty assessment of operational hydrologic forecasting under changing environmental conditions and the promotion of water resources management by using the latest advanced techniques, such as AI techniques. The fourteen contributions across four major research areas: (1) machine learning approaches to hydrologic forecasting; (2) uncertainty analysis and assessment on hydrological modelling under changing environments; (3) AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation; and (4) adaption strategies of extreme hydrological events for hazard mitigation. The papers published in this issue can not only advance water sciences but can also support policy makers toward more sustainable and effective water resources management.
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Harkat, N., S. Chaouche, and M. Bencherif. "Flood Hazard Spatialization Applied to The City of Batna: A Methodological Approach." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 10, no. 3 (June 7, 2020): 5748–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.3429.
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Flood flows can cause destruction to properties and infrastructure or even cost human lives. Batna is an Algerian city that is highly exposed to the risk of flooding, with an average of one flood every three to four years. The current methods utilized to analyze flood hazards are limited to the hydrology of the watershed. Limiting the analysis of flood hazards could mislead the decision-makers from proper management of such risks. The objective of the current study is to propose a simplified flood hazard model called HEC RAS-DTM (Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC RAS)-Digital Terrain Model (DTM)) and to evaluate it utilizing data gathered from the hydrological context and the hydraulic modeling of Batna city. The model entails two distinct phases. Initially, it attempts to use descriptive statistical methods based mainly on frequency analysis, which consists of studying flood flows in order to determine the probability of future flood occurrence. The analysis of the hydrological context of the city of Batna has revealed that peak flows from stream floods have been predicted at various return periods. Subsequently, HEC RAS was deployed to produce hydraulic modeling in order to extract the water heights and speeds corresponding to these expected flows. These data, along with DTM, are crucial for the spatialization of flood hazards. The hydraulic modeling and simulation using HEC-RAS and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) of water flow at the two main valleys, Oued Batna and Oued El Gourzi, allowed predicting the extent of flooding that could occupy a large part of the city. The mapping of the flood hazard revealed the sectors that would be most exposed. The results obtained from the suggested model confirm that a significant portion of the city of Batna remains vulnerable to floods in relevance with the predicted flood return periods. The suggested model has indicated significant growth in flood locality. Additionally, the model was proved to be efficient for the analysis of flood flows, and it could easily substitute conventional analysis methods. Further studies or investigations are advised in order to replicate the study in different contexts. The article entails suggestions for properly managing flood risks. Future studies on flood risk alleviation in Batna city could be likewise considered.
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Pokojski, Wojciech. "Inertia of the Catchment Systems Within the Polish Lowlands." Miscellanea Geographica 11, no. 1 (December 1, 2004): 169–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2004-0019.
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Abstract The paper presents a method for assessing the hydrological inertia of the river catchment areas using the autocorrelation function. The method presented can be used as the criterion for the determination of the degree of hazard to the river basins from the potential hydrological droughts. The basins with high inertia are less susceptible to the shortages of supply and are less threatened by the occurrence of hydrological droughts.
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Brunner, Manuela I., Lieke A. Melsen, Andrew W. Wood, Oldrich Rakovec, Naoki Mizukami, Wouter J. M. Knoben, and Martyn P. Clark. "Flood spatial coherence, triggers, and performance in hydrological simulations: large-sample evaluation of four streamflow-calibrated models." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25, no. 1 (January 6, 2021): 105–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-105-2021.
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Abstract. Floods cause extensive damage, especially if they affect large regions. Assessments of current, local, and regional flood hazards and their future changes often involve the use of hydrologic models. A reliable hydrologic model ideally reproduces both local flood characteristics and spatial aspects of flooding under current and future climate conditions. However, uncertainties in simulated floods can be considerable and yield unreliable hazard and climate change impact assessments. This study evaluates the extent to which models calibrated according to standard model calibration metrics such as the widely used Kling–Gupta efficiency are able to capture flood spatial coherence and triggering mechanisms. To highlight challenges related to flood simulations, we investigate how flood timing, magnitude, and spatial variability are represented by an ensemble of hydrological models when calibrated on streamflow using the Kling–Gupta efficiency metric, an increasingly common metric of hydrologic model performance also in flood-related studies. Specifically, we compare how four well-known models (the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, SAC; the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning model, HBV; the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC; and the mesoscale hydrologic model, mHM) represent (1) flood characteristics and their spatial patterns and (2) how they translate changes in meteorologic variables that trigger floods into changes in flood magnitudes. Our results show that both the modeling of local and spatial flood characteristics are challenging as models underestimate flood magnitude, and flood timing is not necessarily well captured. They further show that changes in precipitation and temperature are not always well translated to changes in flood flow, which makes local and regional flood hazard assessments even more difficult for future conditions. From a large sample of catchments and with multiple models, we conclude that calibration on the integrated Kling–Gupta metric alone is likely to yield models that have limited reliability in flood hazard assessments, undermining their utility for regional and future change assessments. We underscore that such assessments can be improved by developing flood-focused, multi-objective, and spatial calibration metrics, by improving flood generating process representation through model structure comparisons and by considering uncertainty in precipitation input.
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Bernardara, Pietro, Etienne de Rocquigny, Nicole Goutal, Aurélie Arnaud, and Giuseppe Passoni. "Uncertainty analysis in flood hazard assessment: hydrological and hydraulic calibrationThis article is one of a selection of papers published in this Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 37, no. 7 (July 2010): 968–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l10-056.
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Interest in the actual estimation of the uncertainty affecting flood hazard assessments is increasing within the scientific community and among decision makers. Several works may be found in the hydrological and hydraulic literature listing the sources of uncertainty affecting the estimation of extreme flood levels. Here, a well-assessed uncertainty treatment procedure is applied to carry out a complete flood hazard assessment study to encompass both the hydrological and hydraulic components. In particular, the focus is on modeling the sources of uncertainty via a direct (for discharge) or inverse (for roughness hydraulic coefficient) approach. The results illustrate the relative importance of the hydraulic and hydrological uncertainty sources on the final uncertainty. The solution of the inverse problem for the calibration of the roughness coefficient proves useful for several reasons, including the quantification of model error.
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Cowood, A. L., J. Young, T. I. Dowling, C. L. Moore, R. Muller, J. MacKenzie, M. Littleboy, and A. T. Nicholson. "Assessing wetland climate change vulnerability for wetland management decision support using the hydrogeological landscape framework: application in the Australian Capital Territory." Marine and Freshwater Research 70, no. 2 (2019): 225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf17302.
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The hydrogeological landscape (HGL) framework provides a landscape characterisation method that identifies areas of similar physical, hydrogeological, hydrological, chemical and biological properties, referred to as HGL units. The underlying principle of the HGL framework is that water distribution and movement is controlled by climate, landform, geology, regolith, soil and vegetation properties. By understanding the patterns of variability in the setting and controls of atmospheric, surface and groundwater systems for a given landscape, the developed HGL units, and associated landscape element-based management areas, can be used for hazard assessment and natural resource management centred on water availability, quality, sustainability and associated ecological systems. Existing wetland frameworks also demonstrate that it is the hydrogeomorphological or hydrogeological characteristics of the landscape that will determine the variability in water inputs and outputs for a wetland water balance, a principle shared with the HGL framework. It is therefore logical that HGL units and management areas can be used as planning units for wetland hazard assessment and management. This paper presents an assessment of climate change vulnerability for 1296 wetlands across the Australian Capital Territory using indicators representing current anthropogenic pressure, future ecological change and future hydrological change. The use of management areas for the hazard assessment allows understanding of the patterns of variability in the chosen indicators and hazard assessment outcomes specifically for the areas to be managed. This approach allows consideration of the landscape setting when identifying suitable locations to undertake on-ground management actions to address the hazards identified.
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De Luca, Paolo, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre. "Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale." Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 1 (March 10, 2020): 251–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020.
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Abstract. Multi-hazard events can be associated with larger socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events. Understanding the spatio-temporal interactions that characterize the former is therefore of relevance to disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we consider two high-impact hazards, namely wet and dry hydrological extremes, and quantify their global co-occurrence. We define these using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman–Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm), covering the period 1950–2014, at 2.5∘ horizontal resolution. We find that the land areas affected by extreme wet, dry, and wet–dry events (i.e. geographically remote yet temporally co-occurring wet or dry extremes) are all increasing with time, the trends of which in dry and wet–dry episodes are significant (p value ≪ 0.01). The most geographically widespread wet–dry event was associated with the strong La Niña in 2010. This caused wet–dry anomalies across a land area of 21 million km2 with documented high-impact flooding and drought episodes spanning diverse regions. To further elucidate the interplay of wet and dry extremes at a grid cell scale, we introduce two new metrics: the wet–dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transition (ET) time intervals. The WD ratio measures the relative occurrence of wet or dry extremes, whereas ET quantifies the average separation time of hydrological extremes with opposite signs. The WD ratio shows that the incidence of wet extremes dominates over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern South America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China, and most of Australia. Conversely, dry extremes are more prominent in most of the remaining regions. The median ET for wet to dry is ∼27 months, while the dry-to-wet median ET is 21 months. We also evaluate correlations between wet–dry hydrological extremes and leading modes of climate variability, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). We find that ENSO and PDO have a similar influence globally, with the former significantly impacting (p value < 0.05) a larger area (18.1 % of total sc_PDSI_pm area) compared to the latter (12.0 %), whereas the AMO shows an almost inverse pattern and significantly impacts the largest area overall (18.9 %). ENSO and PDO show the most significant correlations over northern South America, the central and western USA, the Middle East, eastern Russia, and eastern Australia. On the other hand, the AMO shows significant associations over Mexico, Brazil, central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, China, and eastern Russia. Our analysis brings new insights on hydrological multi-hazards that are of relevance to governments and organizations with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the multi-hazard maps may be used to evaluate worst-case disaster scenarios considering the potential co-occurrence of wet and dry hydrological extremes.
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Garrote, Julio, Andrés Díez-Herrero, Mar Génova, José Bodoque, María Perucha, and Pablo Mayer. "Improving Flood Maps in Ungauged Fluvial Basins with Dendrogeomorphological Data. An Example from the Caldera de Taburiente National Park (Canary Islands, Spain)." Geosciences 8, no. 8 (August 10, 2018): 300. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080300.
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Flash floods represent one of the more usual natural hazards in mountain basins, and, combined with the lack of reliable flow data and the recreational use of the drainage basin by tourists and hikers, there is a significant risk of catastrophe. Here, we present a dendro-geomorphological reconstruction of a past flash flood event in the Caldera de Taburiente N.P. (Canary Islands, Spain), an ungauged drainage basin in the SW side of the volcanic island of La Palma. We couple two-dimensional hydraulic modelling in a highly-resolved topographic environment (LiDAR data) with (1) peak flow data for various Tyear return periods from an uncalibrated hydrological model and (2) a data set of scars on trees, to investigate the magnitude of a 1997 dated flash-flood. From the results, flood hazards and associated risks would be clearly underestimated by using only the unique available hydrological data (a rainfall gauge station downstream of the study area). Hydraulic models using scars data show a higher flood hazard scenario, improving the flood hazard map by using all available flood evidence. Moreover, all this will allow for better implementation of appropriate adaptation policies by National Park managers, and therefore the mitigation of future disasters.
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Hadadin, Nidal, Zeyad Tarawneh, Khaldoun Shatanawi, Qais Banihani, and Moshrik R. Hamdi. "Hydrological Analysis for Floodplain Hazard of Jeddah’s Drainage Basin, Saudi Arabia." Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering 38, no. 12 (October 17, 2013): 3275–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13369-013-0812-x.
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Zin, Win Win, Akiyuki Kawasaki, Wataru Takeuchi, Zin Mar Lar Tin San, Kyaw Zaya Htun, Thet Hnin Aye, and Shelly Win. "Flood Hazard Assessment of Bago River Basin, Myanmar." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 1 (February 20, 2018): 14–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0014.
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Flood hazard mapping is an effective non-structural measure for sustainable urban planning, protecting human properties, lives, and disaster risk reduction. In this study, flood hazard assessment for the Bago river basin was performed. The flood inundation map of the Bago river basin was developed by coupling a hydrological and hydraulic model with geographical information systems. Flood hazard maps with different return periods were developed. The flood hazard map can be utilized to enhance the effectiveness of disaster risk management activities.
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SAMI, Guellouh, Filali ABDELWAHHAB, Habibi YAHYAOUI, and Fateh ABDELGHANI. "FLOOD HAZARD IN THE CITY OF CHEMORA (ALGERIA)." Analele Universităţii din Oradea, Seria Geografie 31, no. 1 (June 30, 2021): 22–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/auog.311103-835.
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Floods become major concerns in most gobe regions due to socio-economic and environmental consequences caused by these phenomena in recent decades. Most Algerian cities are exposed to flood risks and suffered from its consequences. The purpose of this paper is the spatialization of flood hazard in the city of Chemora (Algeria) by hydraulic modelling in a GIS environment whose objective is prevention, which requires a set of hydrological and hydraulic informations in order to achieve a comprehensive and effective management.
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ROŞIAN, GHEORGHE, CSABA HORVATH, and LIVIU MUNTEAN. "Natural hazards of Izvorul Crișului." Risks and Catastrophes Journal 28, no. 1 (June 15, 2021): 137–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.24193/rcj2021_8.
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" The presence of the Izvorul Crisului local territorial administrative unit (commune), in the western part of the Transylvanian Depression, not far from its border with the Apuseni Mountains, implies the existence of various natural hazardous processes. Their manifestation, in the presence of anthropic components and their activities and goods, determines their hazard attributes. Of the possible natural hazards (geological, geomorphological, atmospheric, hydrological, biological, etc.), only the geomorphological, hydrological, and meteorological ones will be addressed in this paper. The presence of these natural processes may cause material damage and victims, for this it is necessary to know their magnitude. Thus, the present study aims to identify the potential hazards which exist in the Izvorul Crisului administrative unit and to assess the susceptibility to these natural processes. To achieve this objective, specific maps will be made, which finally, beside the supporting role for the analysis of natural processes, will become tools for the management of these conditions, tools to reduce the induced risks."
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Coman, Cristina, and Sanda Manea. "Landslides Hazard Assessment Using Different Approaches." Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering 13, no. 2 (June 27, 2017): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mmce-2017-0004.
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AbstractRomania represents one of Europe’s countries with high landslides occurrence frequency. Landslide hazard maps are designed by considering the interaction of several factors which, by their joint action may affect the equilibrium state of the natural slopes. The aim of this paper is landslides hazard assessment using the methodology provided by the Romanian national legislation and a very largely used statistical method. The final results of these two analyses are quantitative or semi-quantitative landslides hazard maps, created in geographic information system environment. The data base used for this purpose includes: geological and hydrogeological data, digital terrain model, hydrological data, land use, seismic action, anthropic action and an inventory of active landslides. The GIS landslides hazard models were built for the geographical area of the Iasi city, located in the north-east side of Romania.
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Paliaga, Guido, Fabio Luino, Laura Turconi, Jerome V. De Graff, and Francesco Faccini. "Terraced Landscapes on Portofino Promontory (Italy): Identification, Geo-Hydrological Hazard and Management." Water 12, no. 2 (February 6, 2020): 435. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12020435.
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Stone wall terraces are a largely investigated topic in research for both their landscape and cultural/historical value. Terraces are anthropogenic landforms that interact with natural processes and need permanent maintenance to preserve their functionality. In the Mediterranean region, ground effects related to intense rain events often involve terraced slopes that, in some situations, are directly sourced areas of debris/mud flow. Starting from the 1950s, the changing socio-economic conditions caused the abandonment of large portions of rural areas. Nowadays, at the catchment scale, it is frequently difficult recognizing stone wall terraces because of their abandonment and the uncontrolled re-vegetation. This research faces the issue of identifying terraces in the Monte di Portofino promontory, which is internationally famous for its high-value natural and landscape involving broad anthropogenic modifications dating back to the Middle Ages. A remote sensing application, with LIDAR data and orthophotography, identified terraces on the Portofino promontory, enabling investigating even barely accessible areas and increasing knowledge on the territory. The aim of this paper is first of all to point out the presence of such anthropogenic morphologies in the promontory of Monte di Portofino and then to asses and highlight the related hazard. In fact, terraces can be a source of debris/hyper-concentrated flow with highly damaging power, as occurred in the recent years in neighboring areas during particularly intense hydrological events. Then, terraced area mapping, including in use and in abandonment information, is crucial to perform a spatial relationship analysis that includes hazard-exposed elements and to evaluate the possible connectivity factor of buildings, infrastructures, tourism facilities and Cultural Heritage within the hydrographical network.
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Zúñiga, Emmanuel, and David A. Novelo-Casanova. "Hydrological hazard estimation for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, Morelos, Mexico." Hydrology 6, no. 3 (August 27, 2019): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030077.
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The hydrological hazard for the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza, State of Morelos, Mexico, is evaluated considering the overflow process of the rivers located in the Yautepec sub-basin. Different scenarios of hydrological hazard were generated to identify those areas with high flood potential using hydraulic modeling for three return periods (Rp) of 50, 100 and 500 years based on statistical analysis of the maximum annual discharge of the Yautepec hydrometric station. We used the Hec-Ras software and geographic information systems (GIS) to model the different flood scenarios. Our results indicate that 10% (1.5 km2) of the total urban area of the municipality will be flooded for a return period of 50 years. About 12% (1.8 km2) of the territory will be affected by flood for a Rp of 100 years. For a Rp of 500 years, approximately 13.5% (2.1 km2) of the municipality’s area will be flooded. Spatially, the central and southern regions of the municipality will be affected by flood heights greater than 1 m for Rp of 100 and 500 years. The northern zone will have heights of less than 0.50 m for Rp of 50 years. Our results can be used as a tool to prevent and reduce the impact of future floods in the municipality of Yautepec de Zaragoza.
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Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, Fernando Nardi, Antonio Annis, Vincent Odongo, Maria Rusca, and Salvatore Grimaldi. "Brief communication: Comparing hydrological and hydrogeomorphic paradigms for global flood hazard mapping." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 5 (May 20, 2020): 1415–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1415-2020.
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Abstract. Global floodplain mapping has rapidly progressed over the past few years. Different methods have been proposed to identify areas prone to river flooding, resulting in a plethora of available products. Here we assess the potential and limitations of two main paradigms and provide guidance on the use of these global products in assessing flood risk in data-poor regions.
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Brandolini, P., A. Cevasco, M. Firpo, A. Robbiano, and A. Sacchini. "Geo-hydrological risk management for civil protection purposes in the urban area of Genoa (Liguria, NW Italy)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 4 (April 12, 2012): 943–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-943-2012.
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Abstract. Over the past century the municipal area of Genoa has been affected by recurring flood events and several landslides that have caused severe damage to urbanized areas on both the coastal-fluvial plains and surrounding slopes, sometimes involving human casualties. The analysis of past events' annual distribution indicates that these phenomena have occurred with rising frequency in the last seventy years, following the main land use change due to the development of harbour, industrial, and residential areas, which has strongly impacted geomorphological processes. Consequently, in Genoa, civil protection activities are taking on an increasing importance for geo-hydrological risk mitigation. The current legislative framework assigns a key role in disaster prevention to municipalities, emergency plan development, as well as response action coordination in disaster situations. In view of the geomorphological and environmental complexity of the study area and referring to environmental laws, geo-hydrological risk mitigation strategies adopted by local administrators for civil protection purposes are presented as examples of current land/urban management related to geo-hydrological hazards. Adopted measures have proven to be effective on several levels (planning, management, structure, understanding, and publication) in different cases. Nevertheless, the last flooding event (4 November 2011) has shown that communication and public information concerning the perception of geo-hydrological hazard can be improved.
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Li, Xingwei, and Hongyu Long. "Conceptual Framework for the Risk Assessment of Hydrological Disasters: A Case from Urumqi, China." E3S Web of Conferences 165 (2020): 03049. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202016503049.
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Hydrological disasters have become one of the most serious problems facing regional green development. In order to develop a method suitable for comprehensive assessment of urban hydrological disasters, this paper takes Urumqi, China as the research object, and proposes a conceptual framework. Urumqi is an urban area in the northwest of China, and it is often devastated by hydrological disasters. In combination with urban geographic data and the mathematical calculation model of Urumqi, China, the urban hydrological disasters analysis model of Urumqi is established by using the spatial analysis technology of the Geographic Information System according to the risk index of hydrological disaster. Considering the various related factors, like the hazard risk, vulnerability and exposure of disaster, and disaster environment, the risk assessment framework of hydrological disasters in Urumqi is finally designed. In addition, the framework provides a reference for relevant government agencies to develop disaster prevention and mitigation policies.
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Ward, Philip J., Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, et al. "Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 4 (April 22, 2020): 1069–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020.
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Abstract. Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.
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Sušanj, Ivana, Nevenka Ožanić, and Ivan Marović. "Methodology for Developing Hydrological Models Based on an Artificial Neural Network to Establish an Early Warning System in Small Catchments." Advances in Meteorology 2016 (2016): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/9125219.
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In some situations, there is no possibility of hazard mitigation, especially if the hazard is induced by water. Thus, it is important to prevent consequences via an early warning system (EWS) to announce the possible occurrence of a hazard. The aim and objective of this paper are to investigate the possibility of implementing an EWS in a small-scale catchment and to develop a methodology for developing a hydrological prediction model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) as an essential part of the EWS. The methodology is implemented in the case study of the Slani Potok catchment, which is historically recognized as a hazard-prone area, by establishing continuous monitoring of meteorological and hydrological parameters to collect data for the training, validation, and evaluation of the prediction capabilities of the ANN model. The model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches and a new evaluation for the assessment. This new evaluation is proposed based on the separation of the observed data into classes based on the mean data value and the percentages of classes above or below the mean data value as well as on the performance of the mean absolute error.
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Tokarczyk, Tamara, and Wiwiana Szalińska. "The Operational Drought Hazard Assessment Scheme – Performance and Preliminary Results." Archives of Environmental Protection 39, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 61–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/aep-2013-0028.
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Abstract Predicted climate change may have negative impact on many environmental components including vegetation by increase of evapotranspiration and reduction of available water resources. Moreover, a growing global population and extensive use of water for irrigation and industry result in increasing demand for water. Facing these threats, quantitative and qualitative protection of water resources requires development of tools for drought assessment and prediction to support effective decision making and mitigate the impacts of droughts. Therefore, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute has developed and implemented a set of tools for the operational drought hazard assessment. The developed tools cover drought indices estimation, assessment of sensitivity to it formation and drought hazard prediction. They are streamlined into an operational scheme combined with data assimilation routines and products generation procedures. A drought hazard assessment scheme was designed to be implemented into the platform of a hydrological system supporting the operational work of hydrological forecast offices. The scheme was launched to run operationally for the selected catchments of the Odra River and the Wisla River basins. The crucial resulting products are presented on the website operated by IMWM-NRI: POSUCH@ (Operational System for Providing Drought Prediction and Characteristics) (http://posucha.imgw.pl/). The paper presents the scheme and preliminary results obtained for the drought event which began in August 2011.
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Yan, Lei, Lingqi Li, Pengtao Yan, Hongmou He, Jing Li, and Dongyang Lu. "Nonstationary Flood Hazard Analysis in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth." Water 11, no. 9 (August 30, 2019): 1811. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11091811.
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The predictions of flood hazard over the design life of a hydrological project are of great importance for hydrological engineering design under the changing environment. The concept of a nonstationary flood hazard has been formulated by extending the geometric distribution to account for time-varying exceedance probabilities over the design life of a project. However, to our knowledge, only time covariate is used to estimate the nonstationary flood hazard over the lifespan of a project, which lacks physical meaning and may lead to unreasonable results. In this study, we aim to strengthen the physical meaning of nonstationary flood hazard analysis by investigating the impacts of climate change and population growth. For this purpose, two physical covariates, i.e., rainfall and population, are introduced to improve the characterization of nonstationary frequency over a given design lifespan. The annual maximum flood series of Xijiang River (increasing trend) and Weihe River (decreasing trend) are chosen as illustrations, respectively. The results indicated that: (1) the explanatory power of population and rainfall is better than time covariate in the study areas; (2) the nonstationary models with physical covariates possess more appropriate statistical parameters and thus are able to provide more reasonable estimates of a nonstationary flood hazard; and (3) the confidences intervals of nonstationary design flood can be greatly reduced by employing physical covariates. Therefore, nonstationary flood design and hazard analysis with physical covariates are recommended in changing environments.
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Hsu, S. M., L. B. Chiou, G. F. Lin, C. H. Chao, H. Y. Wen, and C. Y. Ku. "Applications of simulation technique on debris-flow hazard zone delineation: a case study in Hualien County, Taiwan." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 3 (March 23, 2010): 535–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-535-2010.
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Abstract. Debris flows pose severe hazards to communities in mountainous areas, often resulting in the loss of life and property. Helping debris-flow-prone communities delineate potential hazard zones provides local authorities with useful information for developing emergency plans and disaster management policies. In 2003, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau of Taiwan proposed an empirical model to delineate hazard zones for all creeks (1420 in total) with potential of debris flows and utilized the model to help establish a hazard prevention system. However, the model does not fully consider hydrologic and physiographical conditions for a given creek in simulation. The objective of this study is to propose new approaches that can improve hazard zone delineation accuracy and simulate hazard zones in response to different rainfall intensity. In this study, a two-dimensional commercial model FLO-2D, physically based and taking into account the momentum and energy conservation of flow, was used to simulate debris-flow inundated areas. Sensitivity analysis with the model was conducted to determine the main influence parameters which affect debris flow simulation. Results indicate that the roughness coefficient, yield stress and volumetric sediment concentration dominate the computed results. To improve accuracy of the model, the study examined the performance of the rainfall-runoff model of FLO-2D as compared with that of the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) model, and then the proper values of the significant parameters were evaluated through the calibration process. Results reveal that the HSPF model has a better performance than the FLO-2D model at peak flow and flow recession period, and the volumetric sediment concentration and yield stress can be estimated by the channel slope. The validation of the model for simulating debris-flow hazard zones has been confirmed by a comparison of field evidence from historical debris-flow disaster data. The model can successfully replicate the influence zone of the debris-flow disaster event with an acceptable error and demonstrate a better result than the empirical model adopted by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau of Taiwan.
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Rahmati, Omid, Saleh Yousefi, Zahra Kalantari, Evelyn Uuemaa, Teimur Teimurian, Saskia Keesstra, Tien Pham, and Dieu Tien Bui. "Multi-Hazard Exposure Mapping Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Case Study from Iran." Remote Sensing 11, no. 16 (August 20, 2019): 1943. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs11161943.
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Mountainous areas are highly prone to a variety of nature-triggered disasters, which often cause disabling harm, death, destruction, and damage. In this work, an attempt was made to develop an accurate multi-hazard exposure map for a mountainous area (Asara watershed, Iran), based on state-of-the art machine learning techniques. Hazard modeling for avalanches, rockfalls, and floods was performed using three state-of-the-art models—support vector machine (SVM), boosted regression tree (BRT), and generalized additive model (GAM). Topo-hydrological and geo-environmental factors were used as predictors in the models. A flood dataset (n = 133 flood events) was applied, which had been prepared using Sentinel-1-based processing and ground-based information. In addition, snow avalanche (n = 58) and rockfall (n = 101) data sets were used. The data set of each hazard type was randomly divided to two groups: Training (70%) and validation (30%). Model performance was evaluated by the true skill score (TSS) and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) criteria. Using an exposure map, the multi-hazard map was converted into a multi-hazard exposure map. According to both validation methods, the SVM model showed the highest accuracy for avalanches (AUC = 92.4%, TSS = 0.72) and rockfalls (AUC = 93.7%, TSS = 0.81), while BRT demonstrated the best performance for flood hazards (AUC = 94.2%, TSS = 0.80). Overall, multi-hazard exposure modeling revealed that valleys and areas close to the Chalous Road, one of the most important roads in Iran, were associated with high and very high levels of risk. The proposed multi-hazard exposure framework can be helpful in supporting decision making on mountain social-ecological systems facing multiple hazards.
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Ciavolella, Mario, Thom Bogaard, Rudy Gargano, and Roberto Greco. "Is there Predictive Power in Hydrological Catchment Information for Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment?" Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 16 (2016): 195–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeps.2016.10.021.
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Haritashya, Umesh K., Pratap Singh, Naresh Kumar, and Yatveer Singh. "Hydrological importance of an unusual hazard in a mountainous basin: flood and landslide." Hydrological Processes 20, no. 14 (2006): 3147–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6397.
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Bogaard, Thom, and Roberto Greco. "Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 1 (January 4, 2018): 31–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018.
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Abstract. Many shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated. Therefore, regional landslide hazard assessment is often based on empirically derived precipitation intensity-duration (ID) thresholds and landslide inventories. Generally, two features of precipitation events are plotted and labeled with (shallow) landslide occurrence or non-occurrence. Hereafter, a separation line or zone is drawn, mostly in logarithmic space. The practical background of ID is that often only meteorological information is available when analyzing (non-)occurrence of shallow landslides and, at the same time, it could be that precipitation information is a good proxy for both meteorological trigger and hydrological cause. Although applied in many case studies, this approach suffers from many false positives as well as limited physical process understanding. Some first steps towards a more hydrologically based approach have been proposed in the past, but these efforts received limited follow-up. Therefore, the objective of our paper is to (a) critically analyze the concept of precipitation ID thresholds for shallow landslides and debris flows from a hydro-meteorological point of view and (b) propose a trigger–cause conceptual framework for lumped regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment based on published examples and associated discussion. We discuss the ID thresholds in relation to return periods of precipitation, soil physics, and slope and catchment water balance. With this paper, we aim to contribute to the development of a stronger conceptual model for regional landslide hazard assessment based on physical process understanding and empirical data.
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Faccini, Francesco, Fabio Luino, Guido Paliaga, Anna Roccati, and Laura Turconi. "Flash Flood Events along the West Mediterranean Coasts: Inundations of Urbanized Areas Conditioned by Anthropic Impacts." Land 10, no. 6 (June 9, 2021): 620. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10060620.
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Flash floods represent one of the natural hazards that causes the greatest number of victims in the Mediterranean area. These processes occur by short and intense rainfall affecting limited areas of a few square kilometers, with rapid hydrological responses. Among the causes of the flood frequency increase in the last decades are the effects of the urban expansion in areas of fluvial pertinence and climatic change, namely the interaction between anthropogenic landforms and hydro-geomorphological dynamics. In this paper the authors show a comparison between flood events with very similar weather-hydrological characteristics and the ground effects occurred in coastal areas of three regions located at the top of a triangle in the Ligurian Sea, namely Liguria, Tuscany and Sardinia. With respect to the meteorological-hydrological hazard, it should be noted that the events analyzed occurred during autumn, in the conditions of a storm system triggered by cyclogenesis on the Genoa Gulf or by the extra-tropical cyclone Cleopatra. The “flash floods” damage recorded in the inhabited areas is due to the vulnerability of the elements at risk in the fluvio-coastal plains examined. There are numerous anthropogenic forcings that have influenced the hydro-geomorphological dynamics and that have led to an increase in risk conditions.
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Tiepolo, Bacci, Braccio, and Bechis. "Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania." Sustainability 11, no. 18 (September 16, 2019): 5063. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11185063.
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Hydro-climatic risk assessments at the regional scale are of little use in the risk treatment decision-making process when they are only based on local or scientific knowledge and when they deal with a single risk at a time. Local and scientific knowledge can be combined in a multi-hazard risk assessment to contribute to sustainable rural development. The aim of this article was to develop a multi-hazard risk assessment at the regional scale which classifies communities according to the risk level, proposes risk treatment actions, and can be replicated in the agropastoral, semi-arid Tropics. The level of multi-hazard risk of 13 communities of Hodh Chargui (Mauritania) exposed to meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought, as well as heavy precipitations, was ascertained with an index composed of 48 indicators representing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Community meetings and visits to exposed items enabled specific indicators to be identified. Scientific knowledge was used to determine the hazard with Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets, Landsat images, and the method used to rank the communities. The northern communities are at greater risk of agricultural drought and those at the foot of the uplands are more at risk of heavy rains and consequent flash floods. The assessment proposes 12 types of actions to treat the risk in the six communities with severe and high multi-hazard risk.
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Putra, Victorius Setiaji, Gusfan Halik, and Retno Utami Agung Wiyono. "Assessment of Drought Hazard: A Case Study in Sampean Baru Watershed, Bondowoso Regency." Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan 23, no. 1 (April 29, 2021): 56–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jtsp.v23i1.28177.
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Abstract. The Sampean Baru watershed is categorized as an area with a very high level of vulnerability to drought. The purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological drought in the Sampean Baru watershed. NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis climate change data is used to obtain synthetic rainfall models of the past. This climate change data has crude resolution and is global in scale. The NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis data was processed through a downscaling process to obtain local scale climate data in the form of past synthetic rains. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the downscaling models used in this study. The ANN downscaling output was processed through discharge modeling using SWAT. Hydrological drought assessment used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SRI) method. The SRI calculation was based on the accumulated discharge over a period of time. The results indicated that the ANN downscaling process can bridge global scale climate data to local scale climate data. SWAT modeling gave excellent results. SRI-6 can describe past droughts. It can be seen from the compatibility between the results of the drought assessment and the drought data belonging to the relevant authorities.
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Kawagoe, S., S. Kazama, and P. R. Sarukkalige. "Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 6 (June 25, 2010): 1047–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1047-2010.
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Abstract. To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide hazard probability maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard probability over Japan. To represent the landslide hazard in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard probability exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard probability maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.
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Hsu, Ya-Ju, Honn Kao, Roland Bürgmann, Ya-Ting Lee, Hsin-Hua Huang, Yu-Fang Hsu, Yih-Min Wu, and Jiancang Zhuang. "Synchronized and asynchronous modulation of seismicity by hydrological loading: A case study in Taiwan." Science Advances 7, no. 16 (April 2021): eabf7282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf7282.
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Delineation of physical factors that contribute to earthquake triggering is a challenging issue in seismology. We analyze hydrological modulation of seismicity in Taiwan using groundwater level data and GNSS time series. In western Taiwan, the seismicity rate reaches peak levels in February to April and drops to its lowest values in July to September, exhibiting a direct correlation with annual water unloading. The elastic hydrological load cycle may be the primary driving mechanism for the observed synchronized modulation of earthquakes, as also evidenced by deep earthquakes in eastern Taiwan. However, shallow earthquakes in eastern Taiwan (<18 km) are anticorrelated with water unloading, which is not well explained by either hydrological loading, fluid transport, or pore pressure changes and suggests other time-dependent processes. The moderate correlation between stacked monthly trends of large historic earthquakes and present-day seismicity implies a modestly higher seismic hazard during the time of low annual hydrological loading.
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Alfieri, L., P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri. "Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 5 (May 11, 2015): 2247–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015.
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Abstract. EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average, in Europe, flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within 3 decades.
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Alfieri, L., P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri. "Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 1 (January 23, 2015): 1119–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-1119-2015.
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Abstract. EURO-CORDEX, a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average in Europe, flood peaks with return period above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within three decades.