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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Imprecise Probability'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 25 July 2025

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1

RENTERIA, ALEXANDRE ROBERTO. "FUZZY PROBABILITY ESTIMATION FROM IMPRECISE DATA." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2006. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9815@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>Existem três tipos de incerteza: a de natureza aleatória, a gerada pelo conhecimento incompleto e a que ocorre em função do conhecimento vago ou impreciso. Há casos em que dois tipos de incerteza estão presentes, em especial nos experimentos aleatórios a partir de dados imprecisos. Para modelar a aleatoriedade quando a distribuição de probabilidade que rege o experimento não é conhecida, deve-se utilizar um método de estimação nãoparamétrico, tal como a janela de Parzen. Já a incerteza de medição, presente em qualquer medida de uma gr

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2

Kriegler, Elmar. "Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change." Phd thesis, [S.l. : s.n.], 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=976700247.

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3

Elkin, Lee [Verfasser], and Stephan [Akademischer Betreuer] Hartmann. "Imprecise probability in epistemology / Lee Elkin ; Betreuer: Stephan Hartmann." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1142787079/34.

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4

Elkin, Lee Verfasser], and Stephan [Akademischer Betreuer] [Hartmann. "Imprecise probability in epistemology / Lee Elkin ; Betreuer: Stephan Hartmann." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-210424.

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5

Ha, Cong Loc. "Time-dependent reliability analysis for deteriorating structures using imprecise probability theory." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/17731.

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Reliability analysis, which takes into account uncertainties, is considered to be the best tool for modern structural evaluation. In this assessment, the deterioration model is one of the most important factors, but it is complicated for modelling due to the inherent uncertainties in the deterioration process. Theoretically, the uncertainties of the deterioration process can be modelled using a probabilistic approach. However, there are practical difficulties in identifying the probabilistic model for the deterioration process as the actual deterioration data are rather limited. Also, the depe

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6

Balch, Michael Scott. "Methods for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification with Application to a Mars Atmosphere Model." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/30115.

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The purpose of this dissertation is to develop and demonstrate methods appropriate for the quantification and propagation of uncertainty in large, high-consequence engineering projects. The term "rigorous uncertainty quantification" refers to methods equal to the proposed task. The motivating practical example is uncertainty in a Mars atmosphere model due to the incompletely characterized presence of dust. The contributions made in this dissertation, though primarily mathematical and philosophical, are driven by the immediate needs of engineers applying uncertainty quantification in the field

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7

Idefeldt, Jim. "An applied approach to numerically imprecise decision making." Doctoral thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för informationsteknologi och medier, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-7147.

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Despite the fact that unguided decision making might lead to inefficient and nonoptimal decisions, decisions made at organizational levels seldom utilise decisionanalytical tools. Several gaps between the decision-makers and the computer baseddecision tools exist, and a main problem in managerial decision-making involves the lack of information and precise objective data, i.e. uncertainty and imprecision may be inherent in the decision situation. We believe that this problem might be overcome by providing computer based decision tools capable of handling the uncertainty inherent in real-life d

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8

Feng, G. "Efficient reliability and sensitivity analysis of complex systems and networks with imprecise probability." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2017. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3009365/.

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Complex systems and networks, such as grid systems and transportation networks, are backbones of our society, so performing RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety) analysis on them is essential. The complex system consists of multiple component types, which is time consuming to analyse by using cut sets or system signatures methods. Analytical solutions (when available) are always preferable than simulation methods since the computational time is in general negligible. However, analytical solutions are not always available or are restricted to particular cases. For instan

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9

Ling, Jay Michael. "Managing Information Collection in Simulation-Based Design." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/11504.

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An important element of successful engineering design is the effective management of resources to support design decisions. Design decisions can be thought of as having two phasesa formulation phase and a solution phase. As part of the formulation phase, engineers must decide how much information to collect and which models to use to support the design decision. Since more information and more accurate models come at a greater cost, a cost-benefit trade-off must be made. Previous work has considered such trade-offs in decision problems when all aspects of the decision problem can be repres

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10

Batarseh, Ola. "AN INTERVAL BASED APPROACH TO MODEL INPUT UNCERTAINTY IN DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2010. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2540.

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The objective of this research is to increase the robustness of discrete-event simulation (DES) when input uncertainties associated models and parameters are present. Input uncertainties in simulation have different sources, including lack of data, conflicting information and beliefs, lack of introspection, measurement errors, and lack of information about dependency. A reliable solution is obtained from a simulation mechanism that accounts for these uncertainty components in simulation. An interval-based simulation (IBS) mechanism based on imprecise probabilities is proposed, where the statis

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11

Rahal, Abbas. "Bayesian Methods Under Unknown Prior Distributions with Applications to The Analysis of Gene Expression Data." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/42408.

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The local false discovery rate (LFDR) is one of many existing statistical methods that analyze multiple hypothesis testing. As a Bayesian quantity, the LFDR is based on the prior probability of the null hypothesis and a mixture distribution of null and non-null hypothesis. In practice, the LFDR is unknown and needs to be estimated. The empirical Bayes approach can be used to estimate that mixture distribution. Empirical Bayes does not require complete information about the prior and hyper prior distributions as in hierarchical Bayes. When we do not have enough information at the prior level

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12

Costa, Claudilene Gomes da. "Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista." Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2012. http://repositorio.ufrn.br:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/15202.

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Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:55:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ClaudileneGC_TESE.pdf: 853804 bytes, checksum: 011bfb4befb8b54fce2cd4b1b724efdb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-20<br>The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were establish

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13

Carranza, Alarcón Yonatan Carlos. "Distributionally robust, skeptical inferences in supervised classification using imprecise probabilities." Thesis, Compiègne, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020COMP2567.

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Les décideurs sont souvent confrontés au défi de prendre des décisions précises, sans avoir aucune connaissance de la quantité d’incertitudes que celles-ci peuvent contenir, et en prenant le risque de commettre des erreurs dommageables, voire dramatiques. Dans de telles situations, où l’incertitude est plus élevée due à des informations imparfaites, il peut être plutôt utile de fournir des décisions prudentes, sous la forme d’un ensemble de solutions possibles, plus fiables. Ce travail se concentre donc sur la prise de décisions (ou inférences) sceptiques (ou prudentes) et robustes dans des pr

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14

Jacob, Christelle. "Management de l'incertitude pour les systèmes booléens complexes - Application à la maintenance préventive des avions." Thesis, Toulouse, ISAE, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ESAE0010/document.

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Les analyses de sûreté de fonctionnement standards sont basées sur la représentation des événements redoutés par des arbres de défaillances, qui les décrivent à l'aide de combinaison logiques d'événements plus basiques (formules Booléennes complexes). Les analyses quantitatives se font avec l'hypothèse que les probabilités d'occurrence de ces événements basiques sont connues. Le but de cette thèse est d'étudier l'impact de l'incertitude épistémique sur les événements élémentaires, ainsi que la propagation de cette incertitude à de plus hauts niveaux. Le problème soulevé est comment calculer l'

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15

Beisler, Matthias Werner. "Modelling of input data uncertainty based on random set theory for evaluation of the financial feasibility for hydropower projects." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-71564.

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The design of hydropower projects requires a comprehensive planning process in order to achieve the objective to maximise exploitation of the existing hydropower potential as well as future revenues of the plant. For this purpose and to satisfy approval requirements for a complex hydropower development, it is imperative at planning stage, that the conceptual development contemplates a wide range of influencing design factors and ensures appropriate consideration of all related aspects. Since the majority of technical and economical parameters that are required for detailed and final design can

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16

Willot, Hénoïk. "Certified explanations of robust models." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Compiègne, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024COMP2812.

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Avec l'utilisation croissante des systèmes d'aide à la décision, automatisés ou semi-automatisés, en intelligence artificielle se crée le besoin de les rendre fiables et transparents pour un utilisateur final. Tandis que le rôle des méthodes d'explicabilité est généralement d'augmenter la transparence, la fiabilité peut être obtenue en fournissant des explications certifiées, dans le sens qu'elles sont garanties d'être vraies, et en considérant des modèles robustes qui peuvent s'abstenir quand l'information disponible est trop insuffisante, plutôt que de forcer une décision dans l'unique but d

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17

Malinowski, Roman. "Uncertainty characterisation in stereophotogrammetry using satellite images." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Compiègne, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024COMP2842.

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Actuellement, les Modèles Numériques de Surface (MNS) sont nécessaires pour de nombreuses applications, telles que la gestion des ressources en eau, le suivi de la biomasse, l’évaluation des dommages causés par les catastrophes naturelles ou la planification urbaine. Les MNS peuvent principalement être produits par interférométrie Radar, photogrammétrie ou en utilisant des instruments LiDAR. Dans ce contexte, le CNES et Airbus préparent le lancement de la constellation de satellites CO3D afin d’assurer la production massive de MNS à haute résolution par photogrammétrie. Fournie avec le MNS, un

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18

Luo, Wuben. "Imprecise probability and decision in civil engineering : Dempster-Shafer theory and application." Thesis, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/1813.

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Over the last three decades, Bayesian theory has been widely adopted in civil engineering for dealing with uncertainty and for purposes of decision making under uncertainty. However the Bayesian approach is not without criticisms. One major concern has been that information or knowledge, no matter how weak or sparse, must necessarily be represented by conventional, precisely specified, probabilities. This has lead to thedevelopment of statistical methods which allow for more flexible expressions of both information inputs, and inferred results. More recently a general concept, called imprecise

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19

You, Xiaomin. "Risk analysis in tunneling with imprecise probabilities." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2010-08-1777.

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Due to the inherent uncertainties in ground and groundwater conditions, tunnel projects often have to face potential risks of cost overrun or schedule delay. Risk analysis has become a required tool (by insurers, Federal Transit Administration, etc.) to identify and quantify risk, as well as visualize causes and effects, and the course (chain) of events. Various efforts have been made to risk assessment and analysis by using conventional methodologies with precise probabilities. However, because of limited information or experience in similar tunnel projects, available evidence in risk assessm

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20

Kriegler, Elmar [Verfasser]. "Imprecise probability analysis for integrated assessment of climate change / vorgelegt von Elmar Kriegler." 2005. http://d-nb.info/976700247/34.

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21

Beisler, Matthias Werner. "Modelling of input data uncertainty based on random set theory for evaluation of the financial feasibility for hydropower projects." Doctoral thesis, 2010. https://tubaf.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A22775.

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Abstract:

The design of hydropower projects requires a comprehensive planning process in order to achieve the objective to maximise exploitation of the existing hydropower potential as well as future revenues of the plant. For this purpose and to satisfy approval requirements for a complex hydropower development, it is imperative at planning stage, that the conceptual development contemplates a wide range of influencing design factors and ensures appropriate consideration of all related aspects. Since the majority of technical and economical parameters that are required for detailed and final design can

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