Academic literature on the topic 'Industry life cycle theory'

The core purpose of this paper was to analyze the trend analysis of Pakistan railways from the year 1950 to 2015, using the principal component analysis method and industrial life cycle theory. Industrial life cycle theory, the development trend analysis of Pakistan railway industry, entails four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. The results indicated that railway industry in Pakistan was at its pinnacle in the middle of the seventies and thereafter the decline of railway industry was observed. The main reasons behind the decline were underinvestment, political interference, and the rise of the same-sector competitor, the National Logistics Cell (NLC). From the year 2011, it experienced an upward trend of combined utility curve and showed a new round of industry life cycle. To revive its previous glory, the current government has proposed a development document for Pakistan railways, Vision 2025. It is envisaged that railways share in transportation will be increased from current 4% to 20% by the year 2025, which seems to be an onerous challenge for the organization.

Buildings industry consume a great deal of energy and also have great influence to environment during the life cycle. So it is essential to carry out the scientific development as soon as possible. First, This paper makes an analysis of the factors that influence the scientific development from the perspective of life cycle of building. These factors include the type of buildings, energy consumption, water consumption, the impact on environment. the remove and disposal of waste buildings and so on. Second, it sets forth the significance of implementation of life cycle cost theory to the scientific development of buildings industry and how to boost the scientific development of buildings by means of life cycle cost management. At last, the paper also makes an analysis of the status in quo of life cycle cost theory and the scientific development of buildings. It gives some advices on the scientific development of buildings industry.

As is with general industries, Internet of Things industry also follows life cycle theory in the long run. However, in the short term, its high-tech industrial property will bring with it an inevitable outbreak growth at growth stage. The internal mechanism of explosive growth is that the whole networking industry chain achieves linkage development between supply and demand. Currently, Internet of Things industry in China faces a "quake lakes dilemma", which makes the linkage unrealized. Therefore, to get out of the "quake lakes dilemma" and further accelerate the evolution of Internet of Things, it is vital to make major breakthroughs in technologies, standards bottlenecks and remove cost barriers.

The region innovation system has provided the network platform for the knowledge dissemination and the flowing, simultaneously in the region the high-tech industry colony's knowledge overflow promoted the knowledge in region sharing, becomes the region innovation the driving force. This article has constructed the region innovation system life cycle model based on the baud life cycle theory, has studied under the knowledge economy condition the high-tech industry colony knowledge overflow to the region innovation system different life cycle influence mechanism.

Currently, there exsits a Serious resource wasting phenomenon. In order to achieve the sustainable development of construction industry, the development of green building has become the inevitable choice of all countries in the world. This paper based on the sustainable development as the guiding ideology, through the basic theory of green building, based on the life cycle cost theory understanding as the foundation. First of all ,know the current situation of the development of green building cost at home and abroad, then according to the life cycle theory will be divided into green building decision-making, design, construction debugging, operation maintenance and recycling discarded five stages, points out the life cycle cost characteristics of green building.

Aiming at the problem that imperfections and discontinuities of ship's life-cycle theory in teamwork, cross-industry and application tools, the ship trajectories and space motion of ship in the whole life cycle were analyzed, and the space-time network model was established to discuss the changes and relations of all various stages and the connotation of life cycle of ship, the life cycle of ship was divide into the design, construction, operation and dismantling phases with the introduction of decision-maker, and pondered on the significance of the theories and models on green ship.

This study developed an information lifecycle-oriented information management system model for architectural design industry by combining information lifecycle theory with information management system for architectural design industry. In addition to improving weak/complicated processes during information management for architectural design industry, this integrated model merged information lifecycle theory on routine information management operations, and therefore enhances business sensitivity of information management and promotes effectiveness of information management. Furthermore, with the information management process reengineering, this paper studied the theory and framework of information lifecycle flow based on information process mechanism on integrated information management phases for architectural design industry. The paper established an analytical framework for the study of the process and mechanism of disaster information process reengineering and taking the architectural design industry for example, this paper analyzed diversified phases of integrated process for information management of architectural design industry. Key outcomes of this study include the demonstration and assessment of the information process mechanism and information management for architectural design industry based on information lifecycle theory. This study established a new direction for future research on information lifecycle-oriented process reengineering for architectural design industry.

At present, reducing the impact of the construction industry on the environment is the key to achieving sustainable development. Countries all over the world are using software systems for bridge environmental impact assessment. However, due to the complexity and discreteness of environmental factors in the construction industry, they are difficult to update and determine quickly, and there is a phenomenon of data missing in the database. Most of the lost data are optimized by Monte Carlo simulation, which greatly reduces the reliability and accuracy of the research results. This paper uses Bayesian advanced fuzzy mathematics theory to solve this problem. In the research, a Bayesian fuzzy mathematics evaluation and a multi-level sensitivity priority discrimination model are established, and the weights and membership degrees of influencing factors were defined to achieve comprehensive coverage of influencing factors. With the support of theoretical modelling, software analysis and fuzzy mathematics theory are used to comprehensively evaluate all the influencing factors of the five influencing stages in the entire life cycle of the bridge structure. The results show that the material manufacturing, maintenance, and operation of the bridge still produce environmental pollution; the main source of the emissions exceeds 53% of the total emissions. The effective impact factor reaches 3.01. At the end of the article, a big data sensitivity model was established. Through big data innovation and optimization analysis, traffic pollution emissions were reduced by 330 tonnes. Modeling of the comprehensive research model; application; clearly confirms the effectiveness and practicality of the Bayesian network fuzzy number comprehensive evaluation model in dealing with uncertain factors in the evaluation of the sustainable development of the construction industry. The research results have made important contributions to the realization of the sustainable development goals of the construction industry.

Abstract The main objective of this study is to observe product development sourcing strategies over technology life-cycle stages, including assessing evaluation conditions and strategy formulating models. This dissertation approaches product development sourcing from the perspectives of 1) main concepts of product development and technology life-cycles, 2) mapping product development activities over technology life-cycles, 3) mapping product development sourcing over technology life-cycles, and 4) a decision making flowchart. The individual findings are further synthesised and a three dimensional view to analyse the strategic positioning of technology, product and market development as a core context of the organisation is presented. This as it is proposed that the product development sourcing strategies should be analysed and decided according to strategic positioning of the technologies, products and markets and based on the related life-cycle phases. Different product development sourcing strategies can increase the competitiveness of the company by effectively managing critical knowledge of the technology and product development resources. The dissertation is qualitative and inductive in nature and is based on both, reviewing the literature and interviewing experienced industrial managers. The empirical material is based on semi-structured interviews with R&D managers and meetings with R&D directors. The study was realised by investigating historical data on product development activities and sourcing strategies of one of the high-tech industry leaders over four technology generations. The technology evolution of all the generations are considered and the collected data is analysed to understand if there are any significant relationships with the literature based findings. The analysis consists of five individual publications and related synthesis in this compilation. The principal results of this study is a product development sourcing framework (PDSF) proposing how product development sourcing strategies could be managed according to technology maturity levels by considering the specific needs and motivations of each prevailing situation. This necessitates the understanding of the characteristics of different technology life-cycle stages, and evaluating product development activities. This study points out how different models can be utilised to support the evaluation. As a result, various factors can be used to support the product development sourcing decisions for each specific situation, whereas strategy formulating theories are also beneficial as a support for these decisions. The main implications include providing a structure, PDSF, to support managers in their decisions on product development activities and sourcing strategies. The created PDSF is an amalgam of seven technology life-cycles that enable cross-functional investigations over each technology with market penetration situation, manufacturing capabilities, product development factors, and sourcing capability factors of all technology products. Aside providing support for selecting suitable product development sourcing strategies, this study may also ease the considerations over killing unproductive projects and unprofitable product lines
Tiivistelmä Tämä tutkimus tarkastelee tuotekehityksen hankintastrategioita teknologioiden, tuotteiden ja markkinasegmenttien eri elinkaarivaiheissa. Väitöskirja lähestyy tuotekehityksen hankintaa seuraavista näkökulmista: 1) tuotekehityksen ja teknologioiden elinkaarien pääkonseptit, 2) tuotekehitystoiminnat teknologianelinkaarien vaiheissa, 3) tuotekehityksen hankinnat teknologianelinkaaren vaiheissa, ja 4) päätöksenteon vuokaavio. Yksittäiset löydökset on edelleen syntetisoitu ja kolmiulotteinen näkemys teknologioiden, tuotteiden ja markkinoiden kehittymiseen on esitetty keskeisenä kontekstina organisaatioille. Väitöstutkimus esittää että tuotekehityksen hankintastrategiat pitäisi analysoida ja päättää perustuen teknologioiden, tuotteiden ja markkinoiden strategiseen positioon elinkaarivaiheissa. Erilaiset tuotekehityksen hankintastrategiat voivat parantaa yritysten kilpailukykyä teknologioihin ja tuotekehitysresursseihin liittyvän kriittisen tiedon tehokkaan johtamisen ansiosta. Väitöskirja on luonteeltaan laadullista tutkimusta hyödyntäen induktiivista päättelylogiikkaa perustuen sekä aiemman kirjallisuuden tarkasteluun, että empiirisesti puolistrukturoituihin haastatteluihin kokeneiden tuotekehityspäälliköiden ja -johtajien kanssa. Tutkimus toteutettiin tarkastelemalla neljään eri teknologiasukupolveen liittyviä tuotekehityksen ja hankintastrategioiden historiatietoa ja aineistoa yhdessä johtavassa korkeanteknologian yrityksessä. Tarkasteltujen teknologiasukupolvien teknologiaevoluutiota on pohdittu ja kerättyä dataa on analysoitu mahdollisten merkittävien yhteyksien tunnistamiseksi ja ymmärtämiseksi suhteessa aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin ja kirjallisuuteen. Suoritettu analyysi sisältää viisi erillistä osajulkaisua ja tässä kokoomaosassa esitetyn synteesin. Tämän tutkimuksen keskeinen tulos on kehitetty tuotekehityksen hankintaviitekehys (PDSF) joka esittää tuotekehityksen hankintastrategioiden muodostamisen ja valitsemisen perustuen teknologioiden, tuotteiden ja markkinoiden kypsyysasteisiin, elinkaarivaiheisiin. Tämä edellyttää eri teknologiaelinkaarivaiheiden erityispiirteiden ymmärtämistä ja tuotekehitysaktiviteettien strategista arviointia. Tutkittuja strategisia tekijöitä voidaan hyödyntää tukemaan tuotekehityksen hankintamallin valitsemista ja päätöksiä. Tutkimuksen keskeiset implikaatiot sisältävät struktuurin luomisen, tuotekehityksen hankintaviitekehyksen (PDSF) muodossa tukemaan tuotekehitysjohtajia heidän päätöksenteossaan liittyen tuotekehityksen hankintastrategioihin. Luotu tuotekehityksen hankintaviitekehys mahdollistaa poikkiorganisaatiollisen tarkastelun tuotekehityksen strategisista hallintamalleista huomioiden teknologioiden, tuotteiden ja markkinasegmenttien elinkaaret ja niiden vaikutukset strategiseen päätöksen tekoon. Lisäksi, tämä tutkimus voi myös osaltaan helpottaa tuottamattomien tuotteiden ja tuotelinjojen lakkauttamiseen liittyvää analyysia ja päätöksentekoa

Bibliography: leaves 63-66.
This paper reports on a literature-based survey of the theory and practise of life-cycle assessment (LCA) in the car manufacturing industry. Three levels of investigation were conducted, ranging from a broad industry scan, to a focus on four exemplary practitioners of LCA: DaimlerChrysler, Volkswagen, Volvo and BMW who becomes the subject of a detailed scan. Only 4 of the 21 companies surveyed in the broad scan are practising LCA. A greater proportion of car manufacturers must practise LCA if the industry hopes to achieve the UNEP challenge of enhancing car life-cycle ecoefficieny.

Foundries are most widely facilities all around the world, producing high amounts of castings. In this study, environmental impact of metal foundries was investigated toward a life cycle assessment (LCA) goal. Studies were conducted in two foundry plants in order to collect the inventory data. The difference between the plants regarding their processes was the application of secondary sand reclamation (SSR) in Plant 2. Application of SSR is indicated as a

The purpose of this study is to develop the concept of total life cycle costing technique for project investment appraisal in the construction industry. This technique incorporates initial investment costs, future cost and other non quantifiable aspects in monetary terms of the project. A spreadsheet programme is used to analyse projects and by applying this technique a sensitivity analysis can be performed. Alternative bridge project types and alternative road options have been analysed using the the total life cycle costing technique. The results indicate that the concept of total life cycle costing together with sensitivity analysis facilitate an options an effective choice from a number of alternative options. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of the concept as s decision-making tool and its application to projects in the construction industry.

The transport industry is in the middle of a conceptual shift driven by delivering the targets set by the Paris Agreement. Proactive heavy-duty vehicle companies seek to further gather knowledge in a structured way on environmental impacts of its products and services. The method to be implemented is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). For implementation of LCA certain organisational and operational factors pre-requirements need to be addressed. The study takes key factors of Life Cycle Management (LCM) as a framework for assessing the readiness of Scania CV AB to implement LCA. Said key factors of LCM are analysed through company-based case study observations and literature review. The results indicate the company is in the process of introducing majority of the key factors of LCM. The case study tested the possibilities of the company for LCA, and attempted second phase of LCA, Life Cycle Inventory (LCI). The greatest challenge to LCA is low availability and format of data for LCA. However, the case study deeply tested the data limits and offers good insight in actions to be taken.

RT61 is a three-stage industrial power turbine which couples with industrial RB211-24GT gas generator. This power turbine was designed and developed by the turbomachinery group in Mount Vernon, Ohio. It was designed based on the 3-D vortex theory during the early 2000 for increased power output and efficiency. It was also designed for low weight with modular construction for ease in maintainability. The industrial RB211-GT61 product serves both oil & gas and power generation market. Recent drop in crude oil prices has posed significant challenges to the oil & gas customers. To increase the profitability, the entire oil & gas industry (upstream, midstream, and downstream) is looking for opportunities to decrease the operating cost. This served as the main motivation for the life extension of the RT61 power turbine. In order to reduce customer life cycle cost, Siemens Energy, Inc., has extended the life of its most efficient power turbine from 50,000 hours to 100,000 hours. This paper discusses the efforts taken in extending the meantime between overhaul lives of various RT61 industrial power turbine components from 50,000 hours to 100,000 hours. Measures taken to increase the reliability and minimize the product life cycle cost are presented. New coatings were incorporated for the stage 1 vane and blade for oxidation protection. The thermal characteristics of the power turbine were validated using a comprehensive thermocouple survey of the casings.

The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology for effective implementation of life cycle costing (LCC) in design and procurement of repairable and non-repairable products. For this purpose, a generalized model for LCC of repairable and non-repairable products has been proposed. The equations of cost components of the proposed generalized model have been formulated for repairable systems based on the reliability and maintainability aspects to enable the life-time cost conscious design of such systems. The repairable systems typically have a life span of 10 to 20 years and experience multiple failures over their life span. The life cycle cost of a repairable system is significantly influenced by its reliability and maintainability. The life time energy and/or maintenance cost often dominate LCC for most of the repairable systems. Under the condition of constant failure rate the repairable system reliability is characterized by mean time between failures (MTBF) and maintainability by mean time to repair (MTTR). A higher value of MTBF and lower value of MTTR results into lower life cycle cost and therefore a due consideration to these factors is essential while designing repairable systems. The generalized LCC model presented in this paper will assist the designers to compare the life cycle cost of their different design alternatives at product design phase wherein most of the life cycle costs are committed. The developed generalized LCC model is applied to a typical repairable system, a pump from industry and the results obtained are presented.

Posner’s (1961) “technological gap theory” and Vernon’s (1966) “product life cycle theory” predicts that innovation causes market power and facilitates export. In other side export encourages firms and provides more affirmative environment for innovative processes. These theoretical approaches have different predictions regarding the direction of causality between export and innovation. Using Two-Step System Generalized Moments of Method this study investigates causality relationship between export intensity and R&D intensity for the period 2008-2013 in Turkish Manufacturing Industry. Causality relationship was modeled within two different equations and analyzed by Wald Test. First equation models export intensity as function of R&D intensity and real exchange rate. In the second equation R&D intensity estimated as a function of export intensity and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index as competition variable. Causality test results show that there is unidirectional causal relationship from R&D intensity to export intensity. This finding supports the predictions of Posner’s (1961) “technological gap theory” and Vernon’s (1966) “product life cycle theory” related to the innovation and export relationship in Turkish Manufacturing Industry.

Conventional manufacturing techniques have not been subject to much scrutiny by industrial ecologists to date. Many newer techniques and products draw more attention as they rise quickly from research to global scales, amplifying their environmental consequences. Despite the presence of new technologies and increased overseas production, casting activity continues to have a strong presence in the US, and represents a stable component in the national economy. Data from the US government, US industry groups, and UK mass balance profiles facilitate an understanding of sand casting and comparison across manufacturing processes. The figures in the US and UK are similar in terms of diversity of metals (where the US is 72%, 13%, 10% and the UK 76%, 13%, 8% for iron, aluminum, and steel, respectively), energy per ton of saleable cast metal (10.1 and 9.3 million Btu/ton in the US and UK), and overall emissions, with notable similarities in benzene and particulate emissions. One notable discrepancy is in sand use, where the US sends to waste 0.5 tons of sand per ton of cast metal, whereas the UK sends 0.25 tons to landfill.

This paper describes the outline of “life cycle design” course the author teaches and illustrates some experiences and findings with results of questionnaires to attendees of the lecture. “Life cycle design” is a half-year course to third-year students at Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan. The main subject is environmentally conscious design focusing on life cycle thinking. This course intends to establish general and correct viewpoints toward relationship between manufacturing industry and the environmental issues, which are indispensable knowledge as mechanical engineers, rather than to educate environmental specialists. Results of questionnaires indicate that this course succeeded in increasing students’ interest in this area and awareness of importance of the environmental issues. However, some students feel bewildered because of wide variety of topics and, therefore, lack of a central theory.

Being in control of requirements in building projects is vital, since it helps securing the often small profit margins and the reputation of the responsible company. Hence this research aims to introduce requirements management to the construction industry. By means of case study and action research conducted at a Danish construction syndicate producing sandwich elements made from High Performance Concrete and insulation materials it is demonstrated that requirements management successfully can be used in construction. Since requirements management as of today has not found its use in this industry, yet, success is here defined as an accomplished and accepted implementation of requirements management processes that are used by the relevant project members in their daily work and where the benefits of implementing requirements management outweighs the cost of invested resources. Furthermore it is argued that when running technology development, product development, product platform development, and a portfolio of building projects at the same time the use of requirements management is advantageous and an intelligent way of structuring requirements is needed. This article also demonstrates that the application of requirements management with gain can be extended to cover entire life cycles as e.g. the life cycle of a building. This is done by proposing a requirements structure that attempts to consider future events. The proposed structure is divided into the areas: company, technology, product platform, and building and covers all encountered types of requirements, e.g. functional (defines what a system is supposed to do), non-functional (defines how a system is supposed to be), technical, organizational, and even personal requirements. As a result the conducted research clearly shows that requirements management can be applied to the construction industry. At the same time it also becomes obvious that it is necessary to open doors to further research looking into not only using requirements databases & processes especially designed for the construction industry but also the training of key personnel in requirements management, and how the introduction of requirements management can impact the construction industry and their customers in the long run.

Abstract The aviation industry has been growing continuously over the past decades. Despite the current Covid-19 crisis, this trend is likely to resume in the near future. On an international level, initiatives like the Green Recovery Plan promoted by the European Union set the basis towards a more environmentally friendly future approach for the aero-industry. The increasing air traffic and the focus on a more sustainable industry as a whole lead to an extensive need for a more balanced assessment of a products life cycle especially on an ecological level. Blisks (or IBRs) remain a central component of every current and very possible every future aero engine configuration. Their advantages during operation compared to conventional compressor rotors are met with a considerably complex manufacturing and production process. In the high-pressure compressor segment of an engine, the material selection is limited to Titanium alloys such as Ti6Al4V and heat-resistant Nickel-alloys such as Inconel718. The corresponding process chains consist of numerous different process steps starting with the initial raw material extraction and ending with the quality assurance (cradle to gate). Especially the central milling process requires a highly qualified process design to ensure a part of sufficient quality. Life-Cycle-Assessments enable an investigation of a products overall environmental impact and ecological footprint throughout its distinct life-cycle. Formal LCAs are generally divided by international standards into four separate steps of analysis: the goal and scope definition, the acquisition of Life Cycle-Inventory, the Life-Cycle-Impact-Assessment and the interpretation. This content of this paper focuses on a general approach for Life-Cycle-Assessment for Blisk manufacturing. • Firstly, the goal and scope is set by presenting three separate process chain scenarios for Blisk manufacturing, which mainly differ in terms of raw material selection and individual process selections for blade manufacturing. • Secondly, the LCI data (Life-Cycle Inventory) acquisition is illustrated by defining all significant in- and outputs of each individual process step. • Thirdly, the approach of a Life-Cycle-Impact-Assessment is presented by introducing the modelling approach in an LCA-software environment. • Fourthly, an outlook and discussion on relevant impact-indicators for a subsequent interpretation of future results are conducted.

Worldwide interest in using recycled materials in flexible pavements as an alternative to virgin materials has increased significantly over the past few decades. Therefore, recycling has been utilized in pavement maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Three types of in-place recycling technologies have been introduced since the late 70s: hot in-place recycling, cold in-place recycling, and full-depth reclamation. The main objectives of this project are to develop a framework and a life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology to evaluate maintenance and rehabilitation treatments, specifically in-place recycling and conventional paving methods, and develop a LCA tool utilizing Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to help local and state highway agencies evaluate environmental benefits and tradeoffs of in-place recycling techniques as compared to conventional rehabilitation methods at each life-cycle stage from the material extraction to the end of life. The ultimate outcome of this study is the development of a framework and a user-friendly LCA tool that assesses the environmental impact of a wide range of pavement treatments, including in-place recycling, conventional methods, and surface treatments. The developed tool provides pavement industry practitioners, consultants, and agencies the opportunity to complement their projects’ economic and social assessment with the environmental impacts quantification. In addition, the tool presents the main factors that impact produced emissions and energy consumed at every stage of the pavement life cycle due to treatments. The tool provides detailed information such as fuel usage analysis of in-place recycling based on field data.

All structures in Switzerland - that is, all buildings, roads, infrastructure constructions and so on - consume over their entire life cycle around 50 % of Switzerland's final energy requirement. They are also responsible for around 30 % of emissions of the greenhouse gas CO2. In recent decades, the energy requirements and CO2 emissions resulting from the use of such structures have fallen sharply. However, the grey energy contained within the structures as well as the CO2 emissions associated with the construction, renovation and demolition of buildings, remain high. There is great potential for improvement here. The joint project “Low energy concrete” provides an important basis for transforming the construction industry into a sustainable sector. It primarily focuses on the building material concrete, which is responsible for an especially high amount of grey energy and significant CO2 emissions. The results of this joint project are summarised and interpreted in this synthesis on “Sustainable Concrete Structures”. The chief objectives of the joint project were as follows: CO2 emissions and grey energy are reduced by drastically decreasing the amount of clinker in the cement. Grey energy is reduced by replacing reinforcing and prestressing steel in concrete structures with wood and plastic. The service life of the structures is extended by professional monitoring and adequate renovation measures; this reduces the average annual grey energy and CO2 emissions. The research work shows that the CO2 emissions caused by concrete and concrete structures can be reduced by a factor of 4, while the bound grey energy can be decreased by a factor of 3.

20 years ago a concept of “Green Chemistry” was formulated by Paul Anastas and John Warner, aiming at an ambitious agenda to “green” chemical products and processes. Today the concept, laid down in a set of 12 principles, has found support in various arenas. This diffusion was supported by enhancements of the legislative framework; not only in the European Union. Nevertheless industry actors – whilst generally supporting the idea – still see “cost and perception remain barriers to green chemistry uptake”. Thus, the questions arise how additional incentives as well as measures to address the barriers and impediments can be provided. An analysis addressing these questions has to take into account the institutional context for the relevant actors involved in the issue. And it has to reflect the problem perception of the different stakeholders. The supply chain into which the chemicals are distributed are of pivotal importance since they create the demand pull for chemicals designed in accordance with the “Green Chemistry Principles”. Consequently, the scope of this study includes all stages in a chemical’s life-cycle, including the process of designing and producing the final products to which chemical substances contribute. For each stage the most relevant legislative acts, together establishing the regulatory framework of the “chemicals policy” in the EU are analysed. In a nutshell the main elements of the study can be summarized as follows: Green Chemistry (GC) is the utilisation of a set of principles that reduces or eliminates the use or generation of hazardous substances in the design, manufacture and application of chemical products. Besides, reaction efficiency, including energy efficiency, and the use of renewable resources are other motives of Green Chemistry. Putting the GC concept in a broader market context, however, it can only prevail if in the perception of the relevant actors it is linked to tangible business cases. Therefore, the study analyses the product context in which chemistry is to be applied, as well as the substance’s entire life-cycle – in other words, the six stages in product innovation processes): 1. Substance design, 2. Production process, 3. Interaction in the supply chain, 4. Product design, 5. Use phase and 6. After use phase of the product (towards a “circular economy”). The report presents an overview to what extent the existing framework, i.e. legislation and the wider institutional context along the six stages, is setting incentives for actors to adequately address problematic substances and their potential impacts, including the learning processes intended to invoke creativity of various actors to solve challenges posed by these substances. In this respect, measured against the GC and Learning Process assessment criteria, the study identified shortcomings (“delta”) at each stage of product innovation. Some criteria are covered by the regulatory framework and to a relevant extent implemented by the actors. With respect to those criteria, there is thus no priority need for further action. Other criteria are only to a certain degree covered by the regulatory framework, due to various and often interlinked reasons. For those criteria, entry points for options to strengthen or further nuance coverage of the respective principle already exist. Most relevant are the deltas with regard to those instruments that influence the design phase; both for the chemical substance as such and for the end-product containing the substance. Due to the multi-tier supply chains, provisions fostering information, communication and cooperation of the various actors are crucial to underpin the learning processes towards the GCP. The policy options aim to tackle these shortcomings in the context of the respective stage in order to support those actors who are willing to change their attitude and their business decisions towards GC. The findings are in general coherence with the strategies to foster GC identified by the Green Chemistry & Commerce Council.

This report describes the results of technical analysis, field tests, and laboratory tests that were performed for LED highway lighting options by the Energy Efficiency and Reliability Center (EERC) at Purdue University Northwest for the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT). This effort was conducted over the past 3 years to evaluate and test the technology and viability of using modern highway lighting technology to enhance energy efficiency, safety, security, and economic development of communities and roadways. During the testing period there was a continuous discussion between INDOT and EERC regarding the laboratory and field testing of INDOT approved luminaires submitted by vendors. There were multiple discussions with INDOT and vendors regarding the individual details and issues for the 29 luminaires that were tested. A comparison study was conducted by EERC of the various alternatives and comparison to currently installed luminaires. Data was collected for field tests of the luminaires by EERC and INDOT personnel for the luminaires. Field data was evaluated and compared to lighting models using vendor supplied ies data files. Multiple presentations were made at 3 separate Purdue Road Schools regarding the results and procedures of the testing program by EERC in conjunction with INDOT. A total of 22 final reports, considered confidential by INDOT, for individual vendor luminaires have been prepared as part of this effort. These reports were submitted sequentially to INDOT as testing was completed during the course of this effort. A total of 29 luminaires were tested. Some luminaire testing was terminated during testing due to design issues or vendor requests. All testing was summarized in the INDOT specification sheet attached to each report. Observations regarding the consistency of the supplied test luminaire with the requirements of Section 7.2 of the INDOT test procedure “Procedure for evaluation and approval list requirements for solid state ballasted luminaires ITM 957-17P” is provided in the Appendix to the report for each luminaire. Details regarding how these tests were performed and the respective associated evaluation of performance and reliability are provided in the report. This effort included: consideration of published and vendor information; appraisal of products consistent with national industry standards; review of physical design, thermal performance; laboratory testing of photopic performance, reliability, life cycle data and characteristics, and power characteristics; technical and probabilistic risk studies; and field testing and analysis of LED light sources including comparison to currently installed conventional light sources. Assistance in preparing INDOT standards for highway lighting was provided on multiple occasions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.