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Journal articles on the topic 'Information management – Econometric models'
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1
Asafu-Adjaye, John, Edwin Kuh, John W. Neese, and Peter Hollinger. "Structural Sensitivity in Econometric Models." Journal of the Operational Research Society 37, no. 4 (1986): 440. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2582577.
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Asafu-Adjaye, John. "Structural Sensitivity in Econometric Models." Journal of the Operational Research Society 37, no. 4 (1986): 440. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.1986.77.
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Majewski, Sebastian, Waldemar Tarczynski, and Malgorzata Tarczynska-Luniewska. "Measuring investors’ emotions using econometric models of trading volume of stock exchange indexes." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 17, no. 3 (2020): 281–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.21.
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Traditional finance explains all human activity on the ground of rationality and suggests all decisions are rational because all current information is reflected in the prices of goods. Unfortunately, the development of information technology and a growth of demand for new, attractive possibilities of investment caused the process of searching new, unique signals supporting investment decisions. Such a situation is similar to risk-taking, so it must elicit the emotional reactions of individual traders.The paper aims to verify the question that the market risk may be the determinant of traders’ emotions, and if volatility is a useful tool during the investment process as the measure of traders’ optimism, similarly to Majewski’s work (2019). Likewise, various econometric types of models of estimation of the risk parameter were used in the research: classical linear using OLS, general linear using FGLS, and GARCH(p, q) models using maximum likelihood method. Hypotheses were verified using the data collected from the most popular world stock exchanges: New York, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and London. Data concerned stock exchange indexes such as SP500, DAX, Nikkei, and UK100.
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Heckman, James J., and Christopher R. Taber. "Econometric mixture models and more general models for unobservables in duration analysis." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 3, no. 3 (1994): 279–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/096228029400300306.
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Fildes, Robert. "Quantitative Forecasting-The State of the Art: Econometric Models." Journal of the Operational Research Society 36, no. 7 (1985): 549. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2582473.
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Fildes, Robert. "Quantitative Forecasting—the State of the Art: Econometric Models." Journal of the Operational Research Society 36, no. 7 (1985): 549–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jors.1985.99.
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Білуха, Михайло, and Анна Петриченко. "USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR MANAGING DISTRIBUTION PROCESSES." Economic journal of Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University 2, no. 38 (2024): 134–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.29038/2786-4618-2024-02-134-144.
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Introduction. The constant increase in competition and rapid changes in market conditions compel various business entities to seek more efficient ways to manage the distribution of goods. In this context, econometric models become an indispensable tool for analysis and forecasting, enabling informed decision-making, optimization of logistics processes, and cost minimization. Objective. The aim of this article is to substantiate effective econometric models for managing the distribution of goods to optimize supply processes, sales, and maximize profits for manufacturers, retailers, and other participants in distribution channels. Methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research consists of works by domestic and foreign scientists on the implementation of econometric models for managing business processes, including distribution. The informational basis includes scientific, economic, and reference literature, works of leading domestic and foreign scientists, methodological materials, information portals, and periodicals of Ukraine. A set of methods and approaches were used: system analysis – for studying the role and significance of econometric models for goods distribution and identifying their features; methods of analysis and synthesis – for analyzing and systematizing econometric models and determining the advantages and limitations of their application for goods distribution. Results. The study investigates the role and significance of econometric models for goods distribution. It examines how these models can become a key tool in solving optimization tasks, adapting to changing market conditions, and ensuring competitiveness in a world where distribution strategies turn into strategic advantages. The advantages and limitations of applying such models are identified: simple linear or nonlinear demand models; time series autoregressive model ARIMA; exponentially smoothed model ETS; transportation problem model; Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP); Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP); orienteering problem; conjoint analysis. Conclusions. Based on a comparative analysis of the key aspects of using econometric models for goods distribution, their specific aspects depending on the implementation of particular tasks and needs of the business entity are detailed. The main advantages of applying econometric models in distribution are highlighted, primarily providing the ability to effectively consider a large number of factors affecting distribution processes, along with certain limitations of their use. Among the main benefits are more accurate demand forecasting, which allows for optimizing inventories and supply chain management costs, as well as strategies for warehouse placement, route selection for delivery, etc.
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Hryhorkiv, Vasyl, and Mariia Hryhorkiv. "FEATURES OF THE APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL-ECONOMETRIC AND OPTIMIZATION APPROACHES TO THE MODELING AND MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING IN THE ECONOMY." BULLETIN OF CHERNIVTSI INSTITUTE OF TRADE AND ECONOMICS II, no. 90 (2023): 104–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.34025/2310-8185-2023-2.90.08.
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Both the theoretical and applied potential of modern economic science is quite powerful and depends significantly on the level of development of economic-mathematical, computer and information-technological tools. However, the application of economic-mathematical models, methods and information technologies has its own peculiarities and possibilities in ЕКОНОМІКО-МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ 106 Випуск ІІ (90), 2023 the sense of processing and preparation of statistical or expert information and relevant management decisions, which actualizes them as a separate scientific problem. Aim of the work is isolation and analysis of the most important and fundamental features of the use of statistical-econometric and optimization approaches in theoretical and applied research, which together form a methodological platform for the process of information processing and its application in the preparation of decisions. The characteristic features and conditions of the application of statistical-econometric and optimization approaches in the processes of modeling the economy, preparing and making appropriate management decisions are revealed. The implementation of these approaches in both theoretical and applied research leads to adequate results only when the conceptual and methodological requirements for their use are met. Violation of these requirements, in particular for information provision, creates far from always obvious risks regarding the possibility of using the constructed model or the prepared solution in practice. The specifics of econometric and optimization models that reproduce not only quantitative, but also qualitative characteristics of the studied objects (phenomena, processes, systems) were analyzed. Taking such characteristics into account often leads to modification of certain approaches to modeling and development of management solutions. Certain aspects of information provision of decision-making conditions, formed on the basis of data (knowledge) possessed by the control subsystem about the operating environment of the research object, are substantiated. The characterized features of the statistical-econometric and optimization approaches, which are used in the development of economic-mathematical models and the preparation of management decisions in the economy based on them, have an obvious practical orientation and are directly related to applied research. According to their content, all the stated provisions are practically significant in the sense that they are focused on scientifically based warnings regarding the specifics of using the analyzed tools in practice. The specificity of the conditions of application of the analyzed statistical-econometric and optimization approaches is that, depending on the object of research, these conditions may have their own specific features. The justification of these features is the subject of further research.
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Mahmoud, E., J. Motwani, and G. Rice. "Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models." Omega 18, no. 4 (1990): 375–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(90)90027-7.
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Adjiba, Sourou T. Christian, Ygué Patrice Adégbola, Rosaine Nérice Yegbemey, and Jacob A. Yabi. "Review And Synthesis of Sustainable Land Management on Small Family Farms in Developing Countries." Journal of Agricultural Studies 11, no. 3 (2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/jas.v11i3.21067.
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Despite efforts to restore land and fight food insecurity, sustainable land management (SLM) technologies are not yet widely adopted in developing countries. This article reviews and synthesizes studies that have been conducted in developing countries over the last few decades. A total of 145 documents were used in this synthesis. A key finding of this paper is the identification of a theoretical gap that provides information for future studies on SLM practices.Another one is that, studies focusing on adoption in this synthesis have not considered awareness of technology as a key part of the adoption process. Most econometric studies focus on econometric regression and consider SLM adoption as a dichotomous choice. The use of mathematical models such as existing dynamic Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP) models could provide more robust results to overcome this limitation observed in statistical regression results. Additionally, it would be interesting to analyze smallholder farmers’ preferences for SLM practices because very little is currently known about their preferences.
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Yang, Yi, and Ramanath Subramanyam. "Extracting Actionable Insights from Text Data: A Stable Topic Model Approach." MIS Quarterly 47, no. 3 (2022): 923–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.25300/misq/2022/16957.
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Topic models are becoming a frequently employed tool in the empirical methods repertoire of information systems and management scholars. Given textual corpora, such as consumer reviews and online discussion forums, researchers and business practitioners often use topic modeling to either explore data in an unsupervised fashion or generate variables of interest for subsequent econometric analysis. However, one important concern stems from the fact that topic models can be notorious for their instability, i.e., the generated results could be inconsistent and irreproducible at different times, even on the same dataset. Therefore, researchers might arrive at potentially unreliable results regarding the theoretical relationships that they are testing or developing. In this paper, we attempt to highlight this problem and suggest a potential approach to addressing it. First, we empirically define and evaluate the stability problem of topic models using four textual datasets. Next, to alleviate the problem and with the goal of extracting actionable insights from textual data, we propose a new method, Stable LDA, which incorporates topical word clusters into the topic model to steer the model inference toward consistent results. We show that the proposed Stable LDA approach can significantly improve model stability while maintaining or even improving the topic model quality. Further, employing two case studies related to an online knowledge community and online consumer reviews, we demonstrate that the variables generated from Stable LDA can lead to more consistent estimations in econometric analyses. We believe that our work can further enhance management scholars’ collective toolkit to analyze ever-growing textual data.
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Kordos, Jan. "Book review. Microeconometrics in Business Management, 2016. By Jerzy Witold Wiśniewski. Reviewed by J. Kordos." Statistics in Transition new series 17, no. 3 (2016): 575–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2016-032.
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This book introduces the application of micro-econometric methods for modeling various aspects of economic activity for small- to large-sized enterprises, using methods that are based on both time-series and cross-section approaches. The information obtained from using these estimated models can then be used to inform business decisions that improve the efficiency of operations and planning. Basic models used in the modeling of the business (single-equation and multiple-equation systems) are introduced whilst a wide range of economic activity including major aspects of financial management, demand for labour, administrative staff and labour productivity is also explored.
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Abhijit Biswas, Chandrim Banerjee, Meghdoot Ghosh, Moumita Saha, Saurabh Bakshi, and Anirban Ghosh. "A Comparative Lens on Econometric Standards and Fusion-Based Models." Metallurgical and Materials Engineering 31, no. 3 (2025): 310–25. https://doi.org/10.63278/1372.
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A clear understanding and subsequent prediction of volatility has become a topic of paramount importance for investors, policy makers and market regulators in financial markets. The said understanding and prediction of volatility enables the investors to take informed decisions and reducing risk exposures. Thus said, this study aims to estimate volatility in the IT enabled services industry, which plays an important role in security markets. The methodology of comparative approach between traditional models and a newly blended model named as fuse model has been applied to assess volatility for effective risk management and guided investment decisions for investors. The methodology collects information on the historical share prices of ITES companies with a special focus on HCL Technologies listed on Indian stock exchanges. This research work delves into the comparative approach between traditional models and fuse models which may be termed as a blended model. The objective of this study approaches towards the concept of best suited model for ITES industry by using four different fuse models namely being: 1. LSTM in conjunction with Fuzzy Logic, 2. Stochastic Process (Markov Decision Process) in conjunction with Fuzzy Logic, 3. Denoising the discrete time series with Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) followed by Inverse Fourier Transform to obtain the denoised time series which can be treated as an input to LSTM or Time Series Model and finally 4. Ensemble Learning. It is worth mentioning that this type of study is It’s a first attempt that this research advocates for a paradigm shift in volatility estimation practices within the Indian ITES sector.
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Bapna, S. L. "Using Crop Outlook Information for Timely Marketing Decisions in Government." Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 11, no. 2 (1986): 131–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090919860205.
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Reliable and timely information on crop prospects is not available in India. As a consequence, market planning of procurement, storage and distribution operations, and pricing of foodgrains and other crops is usually based on subjective judgements of the government officials about the crofj prospects; therefore decisions are ad hoc and sub-optimal. This paper outlines an approach which uses econometric models. It is shown that reliable and timely crop outlook information can be obtained much before harvest at a low cost. It is illustrated how use of such information by the agricultural institutions in the government can improve the management of crop supplies and demand more effectively.
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Basovskaya, Elena, and Leonid Basovskiy. "Some Problems of the Transition to a Foreign Economy in Modern Russia." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 9, no. 5 (2021): 54–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2021-9-5-54-57.
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The aim of the work was to identify the problems of transition to a new post-industrial - information economy. To analyze and identify problems, the construction of econometric models of extended production functions was used. The main most com-mon reason for the contradictory influence of new information and digital technologies on the economy in the country is the failure of institutions to meet the requirements of the new economic system. Another important reason is the widely used outdated admin-istrative and control style of management, characteristic of the industrial economy, the difficulties in mastering the use of digital technologies by management personnel.
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Adamopoulos, Panagiotis, Anindya Ghose, and Alexander Tuzhilin. "Heterogeneous Demand Effects of Recommendation Strategies in a Mobile Application: Evidence from Econometric Models and Machine-Learning Instruments." MIS Quarterly 46, no. 1 (2022): 101–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.25300/misq/2021/15611.
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In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of various recommendation strategies in the mobile channel and their impact on consumers’ utility and demand levels for individual products. We find significant differences in effectiveness among various recommendation strategies. Interestingly, recommendation strategies that directly embed social proofs for the recommended alternatives outperform other recommendations. In addition, recommendation strategies combining social proofs with higher levels of induced awareness due to the prescribed temporal diversity have an even stronger effect on the mobile channel. We also examine the heterogeneity of the demand effect across items, users, and contextual settings, further verifying empirically the aforementioned information and persuasion mechanisms and generating rich insights. We also facilitate the estimation of causal effects in the presence of endogeneity using machine-learning methods. Specifically, we develop novel econometric instruments that capture product differentiation (isolation) based on deeplearning models of user-generated reviews. Our empirical findings extend the current knowledge regarding the heterogeneous impact of recommender systems, reconcile contradictory prior results in the related literature, and have significant business implications.
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Szymszal, J., and B. Gajdzik. "The Use of Some Forecasting Methods and SWOT Analysis in the Selected Processes of Foundry." Archives of Foundry Engineering 17, no. 4 (2017): 224–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/afe-2017-0160.
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Abstract Forecasting and analysis SWOT are helping tools in the business activity, because under conditions of dynamic changes in both closer and more distant surroundings, reliable, forward-looking information and trends analysis are playing a decisive role. At present, the ability to use available data in forecasting and other analyzes according with changes in business environment are the key managerial skills required, since both forecasting and SWOT analysis are a integral part of the management process, and the appropriate level of forecasting knowledge is increasingly appreciated. Examples of practical use of some forecasting methods in optimization of the procurement, production and distribution processes in foundries are given. The possibilities of using conventional quantitative forecasting methods based on econometric and adaptive models applying the creep trend and harmonic weights are presented. The econometric models were additionally supplemented with the presentation of error estimation methodology, quality assessment and statistical verification of the forecast. The possibility of using qualitative forecasts based on SWOT analysis was also mentioned.
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Kucher, Anatolii, Lesia Kucher, Ruslana Taratula, and Lesia Dudych. "Formation of Sustainable Competitiveness of Enterprises on Soils of Different Quality." International Journal of Information Systems in the Service Sector 13, no. 3 (2021): 49–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijisss.2021070104.
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The objective of this paper is to highlight the results of assessing the impact of soil quality on the sustainable competitiveness of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. The general hypothesis of the research is based on the assumption of available positive relations between soil quality and sustainable competitiveness of enterprises. The average content of humus is taken as an integral index of soil quality. The authors used correlation analysis (for determine the relationship density between content of humus and subindexes of sustainable competitiveness), econometric modeling (for study of the dependence between content of humus and subindexes of sustainable competitiveness), economic-statistical (for evaluation and analysis of the impact of content of humus on the sustainable competitiveness), abstract-and-logical (for theoretical generalization and analysis of the research results), and graphical (for the visual representation of the revealed dependencies). To receive the results, the statistical software package STATISTICA is used. The obtained results prove the hypothesis of a positive relationship between content of humus and sustainable competitiveness only in the area of sufficient moisture. For example, the research reveals a high direct correlation relation (r = 0.735) between the subindexes of competitiveness by the yield of cereals and content of humus in soil in Chernihiv region. For the first time, one- and two-factor linear and quadratic econometric models were developed, which made it possible to carry out quantitative estimation of the impact of content of humus on the formation of sustainable competitiveness.
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Silver, Mick. "Disparities in the prices of new and old models when they coexist in the market: some econometric estimates." Omega 27, no. 1 (1999): 13–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0305-0483(98)00031-0.
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Zholudeva, Vera V. "Econometric modeling of the higher education system in Yaroslavl region." Open Education 22, no. 4 (2018): 12–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/1818-4243-2018-4-12-20.
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The objective of the study is to analyze the models that describe the processes, running in the education. The article concludes that currently there are important changes and new trends in the sphere of higher education in Russia: the development of higher education is carried out in the conditions of the effective use of modern information technologies. The author emphasized the analysis of the use of distance learning technologies in the higher education system, which is especially important for our country because of the vast territory, the remoteness of many regions from the centers of educational services, due to the growing high cost of these services.The development of Internet technologies, multimedia in conjunction with the growing popularity, the Internet makes it possible to promote education to a new level. That is why today the demand for distance learning in Russia is equal, and in some universities has exceeded the demand for full-time education. In the near future distance learning will take on the main burden in the system of professional training and retraining of specialists due to its mobility, mass, availability and relative cheapness.Also in this article the basic quantitative regularities of the market of higher education of the Yaroslavl region in relation to the economy are determined. In the article, econometric modeling is chosen as a tool for management in the field of vocational education. This is due to the fact that it is able to identify trends and patterns of changes in the indicators of education development in the region, to determine the consequences of a development strategy that contributes to the understanding of the processes taking place in the higher education system. Econometric models, used for forecasting in the education system are analyzed; their advantages and disadvantages are revealed. Some of them are disclosed in the paper on the example of modeling the system of higher education in the Yaroslavl region.As the result of analyzing the statistical data of the regional office of Federal State Statistics Service in Yaroslavl region the following models were developed: a model that shows how the application of distance technologies in higher education is related to socio-economic indicators; the regression model of correlation between the system of higher education and the economy (GRP); the model of forecasting the number of students in different educational categories; the econometrical model of connectivity between the education expenditures and economic factors. The paper evaluates the impact of educational and demographic indicators on the education level index of the Yaroslavl region. The econometrical models, constructed in the research, represent the informational basis for modernization of regional higher education system and elaboration of social-economic strategies of the regional development. The proposed statistical tools of evaluation and forecasting education system development can be used for decision-making and planning on the regional level.
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Gibbard, Peter. "A Model of Search with Two Stages of Information Acquisition and Additive Learning." Management Science 68, no. 2 (2022): 1212–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4150.
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This paper presents a model of choice with two stages of information acquisition. In this model, the choice problem can be interpreted as a variant of a more general multiarmed bandit problem. We assume that information acquisition takes a simple “additive form”—the value of an alternative is the sum of two components, which the decision maker can learn by undertaking two stages of information acquisition. This assumption yields a model that is tractable for the purposes of structural estimation. One possible application of the model is to online purchasing on e-commerce sites. For a consumer on an e-commerce website, there are potentially two stages of information acquisition: the consumer can obtain information about an alternative from (i) browsing the search results page and (ii) clicking on the alternative. By way of contrast, in much of the literature on structural econometric models of online purchasing, there is typically only one stage of information acquisition. Our paper may, therefore, provide a more realistic theory for modeling search, at least for those types of search—such as online purchasing—that involve two stages of information acquisition. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, behavioral economics and decision analysis.
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Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva, and Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva Svetlana V. Doroshenko Ksenia A. Posysoeva. "Econometric Estimation of Strategic Development Factors of Russian Border Regions." Economy of Region 17, no. 2 (2021): 431–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-2-6.
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Cross-border development is significantly influenced by global events, such as 1990s transformations, when different inland areas across the world became borderlands. Further, due to 2014 geopolitical changes, the Russian Federation had to establish a new institutional framework regulating the border regional development. The research aims to assess the impact of strategic factors on socio-economic development of these regions. For that purpose, we analysed 47 of 50 Russian border entities divided into two groups of old and new (established after the collapse of the USSR in 1991) border regions. We hypothesise that the factors considered as strategic in these territories manifest differently in old and new border regions. Empirical data, obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service and Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System, cover the period from 2000 to 2018. The simulation was conducted using the statistical package Stata 14. We analysed five groups of factors (transport infra- structure, small business, foreign trade, tourism, ecology) as well as corresponding indicators. Gross regional product per capita in comparable prices of 2018 was considered as a dependent variable. Then, we assessed three models explaining the impact of the examined factors on old and new border regions individually and in combination. For each model, pooled regression, as well as random and fixed effects models were constructed. Conducted simulations revealed that the fixed effects models best describe the analysed data. The research results confirmed the hypothesis, showing that transport infrastructure and tourism are more important for new border regions, while the factors of ecology, small business and foreign trade have a greater impact on the development of old borderlands.
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Kramar, Iryna, Halyna Tsikh, Iryna Nahorniak, and Lilia Pokryshka. "Improvement of bank strategic management based on econometric modeling of its activity efficiency." Socio-Economic Problems and the State 25, no. 2 (2021): 457–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.33108/sepd2022.02.457.
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Some aspects of bank strategic management are defined in the article. Efficiency econometric modelling of one of the leading banks operating at Ukrainian financial market was performed using Statistica and Excel PCs. To establish appropriate correlations, the three inputs that were most affected during the coronavirus pandemic were identified: net interest margin, financial leverage ratio, and profitability of personnel costs. There are selected two parameters as one of the main indicators of banking institution efficiency: return on assets and return on equity. The dependences response surfaces of return on assets and return on equity based on the following combinations are constructed: net interest margin and financial leverage ratio; net interest margin and profitability of personnel costs; the financial leverage ratio and profitability of personnel costs. Correlations between different combinations of input variables and their effect on outputs have been established. The limits within which each input parameter should be in order to cause the best results of output parameters have been determined. In order to define those bank's activity areas that require the most attention, models of time dependences have been built for: net interest margin; financial leverage ratio; profitability of personnel costs; return on assets and return on equity. The milestones of the researched bank have been identified. A number of proposals have been developed to improve the strategic management of the banking institution based on the conducted analysis. It is defined that the effectiveness of banking institutions strategic management depends on the timeliness and objectivity of changes forecast, the reliability of information flows and the quality of monitoring and control of various business processes for customers, shareholders and society as a whole.
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Kumar, Kepulaje Abhaya, Cristi Spulbar, Prakash Pinto, Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar, Ramona Birau, and Jyeshtaraja Joisa. "Using Econometric Models to Manage the Price Risk of Cocoa Beans: A Case from India." Risks 10, no. 6 (2022): 115. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks10060115.
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This study aims at developing econometric models to manage the price risk of Dry and Wet Cocoa beans with the help of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and VAR (Vector Auto Regressive). The monthly price of Cocoa beans is collected for the period starting from April 2009 to March 2020 from the office of CAMPCO Limited, Mangalore, and the ICE Cocoa futures price from the website of investing.com. The augmented dickey fuller test is used to test the stationarity of the series. The ACF and PACF correlograms are used to identify the tentative ARIMA model. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz criterion (SBIC), Sigma square, and adjusted R2 are used to decide on the optional AR and MA terms for the models. Durbin–Watson statistics and correlograms of the residuals are used to decide on the model’s goodness of fit. Identified optimal models were ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for the Dry Cocoa beans price series and ARIMA (1, 1, 2) for the Wet Cocoa beans price series. The multivariate VAR (1) model found that the US and London Cocoa futures prices traded on the ICE platform will influence the price of Dry Cocoa in India. This study will be helpful to forecast the price of Cocoa beans to manage the price risk, precisely for Cocoa traders, Chocolate manufacturers, Cocoa growers, and the government for planning and decision-making purposes.
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Adu-Ameyaw, Emmanuel, Albert Danso, Samuel Acheampong, and Cynthia Akwei. "Executive bonus compensation and financial leverage: do growth and executive ownership matter?" International Journal of Accounting & Information Management 29, no. 3 (2021): 392–409. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijaim-09-2020-0141.
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Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of executive bonus compensation on a firm’s financial leverage policy and the extent to which this compensation–leverage relation is moderated by firm growth and executive ownership. Design/methodology/approach Using data from 213 non-financial and non-utility UK FTSE 350 firms for the period 2007–2015, generating a total of 1,784 firm-year observations, panel econometric methods are used to test the model. Findings Drawing insights from agency theoretic view, this paper uncovers that managerial cash bonus compensation is negatively and significantly related to financial leverage. However, stock bonus compensation has a positive and significant impact on leverage. This study also observes that compensation–leverage is moderated by both firm growth and executive ownership. The results remain robust to alternative econometric models. Originality/value While this paper builds on the risk-motivated argument of executive bonus compensation literature, it is the first – to the best of the knowledge – to explore the bonus compensation-corporate financial leverage and, particularly, examine the extent to which firm growth and corporate executive ownership matter in this relationship.
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Hamad, Dr Abed Ali, and Dr Ahmad Hussein Battal. "Use GARCH Models to Build a Econometric Model to Predict Average Daily Closing Prices of the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the Period 2013-2016." Webology 18, Special Issue 04 (2021): 385–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.14704/web/v18si04/web18136.
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This research aims to build a standard model for the analysis and prediction of the average daily closing price fluctuations for companies registered in the Iraq Stock Exchange for the period 07/01/2013 to 30/06/2016, using the conditional generalized Heteroscedasticity Generalized Autoregressive (GARCH) models. As these models deal with the fluctuations that occur in the financial time series. The results of the analysis showed that the best model for predicting the volatility of average closing prices in the Iraq Stock Exchange is the EGARCH model (3,1), depending on the statistical criteria used in the preference between the models (Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Criterion), and these models can provide information for investors in order to reduce the risk resulting from fluctuations in stock prices in the Iraqi financial market.
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Arlt, Josef, Markéta Arltová, and Jindřich Klůfa. "Empirical Analysis for Testing the Validity of the Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic." International Journal of Economics and Statistics 10 (March 15, 2022): 154–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.46300/9103.2022.10.25.
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Inflation and unemployment are the most important economic indicators for each country. The latest information is always impatiently expected, analyzed and commented not only by economists but also by inhabitants of the country. This article goes back to the original idea of the Phillips curve as a tool for empirical verification of the relationship between inflation and unemployment. The question that arises is whether the unemployment rate can be used to explain the changes in the inflation rate and on the contrary, in the Czech Republic. The verification of this relationship will be carried out on the basis of econometric models (ADL models and cointegration analysis) on the basis of the annual time series from 1995 to 2012.
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Wiśniewski, Jerzy Witold. "Forecasting in Small Business Management." Risks 9, no. 4 (2021): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9040069.
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This work aims to verify an authorial forecasting method from a system of interdependent equations, which is based on empirical equations of the structural form and is mainly intended for econometric micromodels. The prediction procedure will be analogous to the so-called chain prediction that is used for recursive models. The difference—compared with the prediction from a recursive model—entails the necessity of using one of the reduced-form empirical equations to begin the procedure of constructing a sequence of forecasts from successive structural-form empirical equations. The research results presented above indicate that the above-proposed iterative forecasting method from structural-form equations of a system of interdependent equations guarantees synchronization of forecasts as part of a closed cycle of relations. A different number of iterations is required to obtain convergent forecasts. It can be noticed that the further ahead the forecasted period is, the more iterations should be carried out to obtain convergent forecasts. Small business management with the use of forecasting can be done remotely. Rapid updates of statistical information will require cloud-based communication. Completion of data in a cloud will allow, on one hand, accurate assessment of expired forecasts and, on the other, to update the predictor equations. This can be carried out at any place with Internet access.
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Li, Shanshen, and Zhonghui Dong. "Evaluation of Spatial Spillover Effect of Multidimensional Hybrid Financial Risk Contagion Based on the DAI Spatial Econometric Model." Advances in Multimedia 2023 (April 3, 2023): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/5167499.
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The process of global integration has accelerated, and the international financial market has become increasingly closely linked. The financial risks that come with them are becoming more complex and difficult to guard against. Multimedia modeling in Health Cloud biometric authentication and data management systems can be applied to the analysis of financial markets. Most of the current financial risk analysis models are based on a single time, and the models are relatively simple and cannot adapt to the current complex multidimensional mixed financial risk environment. Therefore, this paper aimed to analyze the spatial spillover effect of financial risk contagion based on the directed asymmetric (DAI) spatial econometric model. This paper proposed to transfer entropy information weight information and introduce the GARCH (generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity) model to improve the traditional econometric model. By constructing a DAI measurement model, the spatial contagion of multidimensional mixed financial risks was analyzed, and on this basis, a generalized multidimensional economic space was established to analyze spatial spillover effects and analyze the specific path of spatial spillover effects. The model results in this paper showed that the degree of correlation between the stock and bond market varied greatly between countries. Among them, the change coefficient W s ⟶ b r s D of the event period was judged to have a large degree of negative change in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France in the European Union, which were −0.9885, −0.9876, and −0.9748, respectively. This showed that the model in this paper had a good and reliable ability to cope with the current multidimensional mixed complex financial risk environment and could be used as a reference for financial risk-related research. At the same time, it also proved that multimedia modeling in health cloud biometric authentication and data management system could provide a role in financial risk contagion analysis.
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Liu, Han, Ying Liu, Yonglian Wang, and Changchun Pan. "Hot topics and emerging trends in tourism forecasting research: A scientometric review." Tourism Economics 25, no. 3 (2018): 448–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354816618810564.
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Tourism forecasting has been a focal point of tourism research over the past few decades as a result of the corresponding rapid development and expansion of the tourism industry. A bibliometric analysis, based on 543 articles retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection database, was carried out to provide insights into hot topics as well as emerging trends in tourism forecasting research. The results show that the research outputs related to tourism forecasting have grown rapidly since 2006. The observed hot topics in tourism forecasting were to predict tourism demand via various models, including time series models, econometric models, and artificial intelligence-based methods, and to compare the forecasting accuracy of models. An emerging trend of tourism forecasting is to use methods based on data from a web-based search engine. Our study provides insights and valuable information for researchers to identify new perspectives on hot topics and research frontiers.
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Mabrouk, Lamia, and Adel Boubaker. "The pecking order theory and life cycle: Evidence from French firms." Corporate Ownership and Control 16, no. 3 (2019): 20–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cocv16i3art2.
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Contrary to the trade-off theory, pecking order theory is based on the information asymmetry that exists between internal stakeholders (owners, managers) and external stakeholders (donors) to the company. We study firms’ financing behaviour over life cycle stages in the context of the pecking order theory. This paper is interested in testing the relation between ownership structure, the life cycle and the funding classification in French companies in the period 2005-2014. The hypotheses tested were derived from the pecking order models and analysis was conducted on data panel with econometric software Stata. The results show that the pecking order explains the debt in French companies that are in growth phase, maturity or decline.
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Koldovskiy, Artem. "Strategic Infrastructure Transformation: Revolutionizing Financial Sector Management for Enhanced Success." Acta Academiae Beregsasiensis. Economics, no. 5 (June 27, 2024): 323–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.58423/2786-6742/2024-5-323-332.
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This article explores the transformative landscape of strategic infrastructure within the financial sector, focusing on the dynamic interplay between technology integration and human capital in shaping operational efficiency. The introduction outlines the problem statement, emphasizing the growing significance of strategic infrastructure in financial management. Leveraging an advanced econometric model, our research unveils crucial insights into the predictors of operational efficiency. The results showcase the substantial influence of both technology integration and human capital on operational efficiency, with coefficients of 0.89 and 1.15, respectively. These findings underscore the critical role that technological advancements and investment in human capital play in optimizing operational performance within financial institutions. The model's high Multiple R-squared (0.82) and Adjusted R-squared (0.80) values affirm its effectiveness in explaining approximately 80% of the variability in Operational Efficiency. Furthermore, the overall significance of the model is established by a robust F-statistic (36.45) and a low Prob (F-statistic) value (< 0.001). The model's goodness of fit is supported by lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values (456.78 and 468.12, respectively), striking a balance between accuracy and complexity. The discussion of results delves into the practical implications for decision-makers in financial institutions, emphasizing the need for a harmonious integration of technology and human capital strategies. These insights provide a valuable foundation for enhancing strategic management practices within the financial sector. In conclusion, this article contributes to the scientific novelty by employing an innovative blend of theoretical frameworks, empirical data, and advanced econometric modeling. The synthesized results offer a clear and logical presentation of influential factors, model effectiveness, and practical implications. As the financial landscape continues to evolve, the implications of this research extend beyond the current study, opening avenues for future investigations into the nuanced dynamics of strategic infrastructure transformation.
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Globerman, Steven. "Investing abroad and investing at home: complements or substitutes?" Multinational Business Review 20, no. 3 (2012): 217–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/15253831211261469.
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PurposeThe purpose of the study is to assess whether outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and home country capital investment are substitutes or complements.Design/methodology/approachCase studies of 22 Canadian multinational companies (MNCs) were carried out, and the qualitative and quantitative information from the case studies was used to evaluate whether OFDI and home country capital investment were substitutes or complements for the sample MNCs over the period 2000‐2010.FindingsTwo primary strategic motives were identified for the OFDI undertaken by the sample MNCs: market‐seeking; and resource‐seeking. Across the sample, domestic investment was typically a poor strategic alternative to OFDI. Furthermore, OFDI promoted faster revenue growth for the MNCs which stimulated increased domestic investment in later time periods. Hence, OFDI and domestic capital investment are complements in the longer run.Practical implicationsHome country government policies that directly or indirectly discourage OFDI will also discourage domestic investment by home country MNCs. This, in turn, might discourage investment by small and medium‐sized enterprises in the home country, if government limitations on OFDI hamper the growth of MNC head offices in the home country.Originality/valueThe study provides evidence drawing on case studies rather than traditional econometric models. The case study methodology provides evidence on the underlying strategic imperatives for OFDI that is not identified by econometric studies.
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Singh, Harman Preet, and Hilal Nafil Alhulail. "Information Technology Governance and Corporate Boards’ Relationship with Companies’ Performance and Earnings Management: A Longitudinal Approach." Sustainability 15, no. 8 (2023): 6492. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15086492.
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In accordance with the segregation of oversight from management decision making, the board-level information technology governance is accountable for supervising managerial IT activities. This research empirically analyzes the impact of board-level IT governance on the performance and earnings management practices of Saudi Arabian stock exchange (Tadawul)-listed companies between 2008 and 2020. The study sample includes cross-sectional time-series data from 154 firms with 18,018 firm-year observations. This study used regression analysis and other econometric models to examine probable endogeneities. The findings show that only the return on assets’ operational performance is positively and significantly related to board-level IT governance among the three performance metrics (return on assets, return on equity, and Tobin’s Q). This indicates that a higher proportion of members with IT experience and the presence of a board-level IT professional as chief information officer/chief technology officer and an IT committee positively impact operational performance. Finally, board-level IT governance competence and other governance attributes do not deter earnings management practices. Therefore, countries like Saudi Arabia should enhance their corporate governance environment considering the increasing significance of IT governance (control, service, and monitoring). There is also a need to review provisions of the Saudi Arabia Corporate Governance Regulations, especially for board composition, the appointment of independent and IT-literate directors, and penalties for non-compliance with regulations.
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Huang, Songan. "Applied Machine Learning Algorithms for Intangible Asset Value Relevance." Highlights in Business, Economics and Management 10 (May 9, 2023): 337–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/hbem.v10i.8117.
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In the era of the knowledge economy, investment and management of intangible assets are gradually receiving attention from companies. Through Ohlson's residual value model, scholars are able to build a bridge between a company's accounting information and its operating conditions. Many studies have confirmed that intangible assets have a significant positive relationship with companies' market capitalization and profit. However, past research has generally used traditional econometric models to explore the relationship between intangible assets and corporate value and net profit, using the correlation between accounting information and market value as a logical conduction. Machine learning methods have been widely used in business and economics research in recent years. Machine learning's ability to capture information in high-dimensional, non-numerical data and increase credibility through model training has partly compensated for the shortcomings of traditional methods. This paper will use machine learning methods (e.g., neural networks, decision trees) to research intangible asset value relevance further.
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Boiko, Margaryta, Mariia Kulyk, Svitlana Bondar, Liudmyla Romanchuk, and Tetiana Lositska. "Consumer engagement in the conditions of business digitization: A case study of the hotel industry in Ukraine." Problems and Perspectives in Management 21, no. 3 (2023): 113–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(3).2023.09.
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Competition in the hotel industry makes it necessary to study innovative ways to preserve and increase customer base. Effective interaction with customers is evidence of hotels’ innovative activity determined by the active implementation of marketing concepts and the development of information technologies. Therefore, customer engagement involves digitalizing the “hotel-consumer” interaction process. This study aims to determine the components of digital customer engagement in the hotel industry using systematization, generalization, survey, and econometric models. The components of digital customer engagement include recognition, interest, communications, consumer experience, loyalty, and intentions of repatronage. Econometric models used the data of hotels in Kyiv (Ukraine) to prove the dependence of their income on the costs of digital consumer engagement. For financial indicators, the study surveyed hotel managers and stakeholders. The selected indicators have a significant influence on hotel income. In the case of a linear model (“Khreshchatyk” hotel), the parameters show how many units the effective feature will change when one-factor characteristic changes by one unit (assuming other factors are constant). In the case of power-law models (“Bratislava” and “Ukraine” hotels), the parameters are essentially elasticity coefficients that demonstrate the sensitivity of income changes to changes in factor characteristics. Accordingly, the coherence of implementation of all components in the digital engagement of hotel services’ consumers ensures an increase in service provision volume and hotel operations’ efficiency. AcknowledgmentThe paper shows the author’s results within the frameworks of the study, performed in 2021−2023 at Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics at the request of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, “Digital transformation of trade, economic and tourist systems in Ukraine” (state registration number 0121U112231) and “Forecasting the impact of the tourism system on the country’s economy” (state registration number 0122U001559).
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Kamal Gharibi, Alireza, and Mehdi Safari Geraeely. "Investigating the effective factors on changing auditor: evidences of Iranian firms." Problems and Perspectives in Management 14, no. 3 (2016): 401–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.14(3-si).2016.14.
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This research will investigate the effective factors on changing auditor. Variables such as company size, audit opinions, audit reporting delay and auditing firm reputation are considered as effective factors on changing auditor. By selecting a sample which consists of 96 listed companies in Tehran’s stock exchange during 2010 to 2014 and applying multi-variable regression and econometric models, the results of research shows there is a significant positive relationship among company size, auditor opinion and auditing reporting delay and changing auditor, but there isn’t any significant relationship between auditing firm reputation and changing auditor. The findings of this research can fill the researches gap which are performed in this field and can provide accounting information for investors to make decision about stock exchange organization and other stockholders. Keywords: company size, auditor opinion, auditing report delay, auditing firm reputation, changing auditor. JEL Classification: M41, M42
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Cordero-Ahiman, Otilia Vanessa, Jorge Leonardo Vanegas, Pablo Beltrán-Romero, and María Elena Quinde-Lituma. "Determinants of Food Insecurity in Rural Households: The Case of the Paute River Basin of Azuay Province, Ecuador." Sustainability 12, no. 3 (2020): 946. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12030946.
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Eliminating food insecurity is one of humanity’s greatest global challenges. Thus, the purpose of this research was to analyze the factors that determine food insecurity in households in the rural area of the Paute River Basin, Azuay Province, Ecuador. Stratified sampling was used as the sampling method, with proportional affixation. Moreover, we employed the Latin American and Caribbean Household Food Security Measurement Scale (ELCSA). We estimated the main determinants of household food insecurity using two binomial logit models and one ordered logit model. For the analysis of the data, the respective statistical and econometric tests were employed. The results show that housing size and access to food security information are the most important determinants of food insecurity in the three predictive models applied in this research. This research contributes to the existing literature on food insecurity and provides important information for policymakers, especially regarding food insecurity in rural areas, which has profound economic and social implications.
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Dimian, Gina Cristina, Mirela Ionela Aceleanu, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, and Andreea Claudia Șerban. "UNEMPLOYMENT AND SECTORAL COMPETITIVENESS IN SOUTHERN EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES. FACTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS." Journal of Business Economics and Management 19, no. 3 (2018): 474–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.6581.
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This article addresses the problem of the main factors driving sectoral unemployment in the Mediterranean countries most affected by this phenomenon. The choice of the four countries (Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal) relies on the fact that they are dealing with the highest unemployment rates in the European Union and a certain typology of the economic structure. The originality of our research is offered by its direction, less tackled until now, namely the focus on the particularities of the economic sectors, trying to capture differences between them. The importance and the impact of the results are supported by the methods used to produce them, indicators and econometric models that are on trend and bring extra information to available studies. Descriptive statistics and mismatch indexes are used to outline the economic and labour market structure, while the econometric models built on panel data capture the impact of factors such as GVA growth, specialization and labour market mismatches on the unemployment rate at six economic sectors level. Our paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, we have demonstrated that agriculture is the sector of activity less sensitive to output fluctuations in terms of unemployment and can become a buffer for the jobless in times of recessions. Second, we have proved that industry, as a whole, is highly responsive to economic developments and bad specialization could worsen unemployment situation in this sector. Third, we showed that educational mismatches have a significant impact on unemployment in those sectors of activity that employ low educated workforce.
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Jagrič, Timotej, Dušan Fister, and Vita Jagrič. "Reshaping the Healthcare Sector with Economic Policy Measures Based on COVID-19 Epidemic Severity: A Global Study." Healthcare 10, no. 2 (2022): 315. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10020315.
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Governments around the world are looking for ways to manage economic consequences of COVID-19 and promote economic development. The aim of this study is to identify the areas where the application of economic policy measures would enhance the resilience of societies on epidemic risks. We use data on the COVID-19 pandemic outcome in a large number of countries. With the estimation of multiple econometric models, we identify areas being a reasonable choice for economic policy intervention. It was found that viable remediation actions worth taking can be identified either for long-, mid-, or short-term horizons, impacting the equality, healthcare sector, and national economy characteristics. We suggest encouraging research and development based on innovative technologies linked to industries in healthcare, pharmaceutical, and biotech, promoting transformation of healthcare systems based on new technologies, providing access to quality healthcare, promoting public healthcare providers, and investing in the development of regional healthcare infrastructure, as a tool of equal regional development based on economic assessment. Further, a central element of this study, i.e. the innovative identification matrix, could be populated as a unique policy framework, either for latest pandemic or any similar outbreaks in future.
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Sun, Kyung-A., and Joonho Moon. "Relationship between Subjective Health, the Engel Coefficient, Employment, Personal Assets, and Quality of Life for Korean People with Disabilities." Healthcare 11, no. 22 (2023): 2994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare11222994.
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The aim of this research is to examine the effect of subjective health on the quality of life of Korean people with disabilities. The second goal of this study is to examine the effect of the Engel coefficient on quality of life. Additionally, this study is conducted to inspect the effect of employment and personal assets on quality of life. Further, in this work, the moderating effect of personal assets on the association between employment and quality of life for people with a disability is explored. The Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled served as the source of data. The study period ranges from 2016 to 2018. To test the research hypotheses, this study adopted econometric analyses, namely, ordinary least squares, fixed effect, and random effect models. The results revealed that the quality of life for people with disabilities is positively influenced by subjective health, employment, and personal assets. In contrast, the Engel coefficient exerts a negative impact on quality of life. Plus, the finding indicates that personal assets negatively moderate the relationship between employment and quality of life for people with disabilities. This research is aimed at presenting policy implications for the welfare of people with disabilities.
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Ashirbekova, Dina, Akan Nurbatsin, and Anel Kireyeva. "The impact of public investment on enrollment and innovation: Strategic management insights from Kazakhstan." Problems and Perspectives in Management 23, no. 2 (2025): 736–49. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.23(2).2025.53.
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Despite ongoing efforts to modernize the higher education sector in Kazakhstan, the integration of strategic management and the effective allocation of public investment continue to pose significant challenges. This study aims to assess the relationship between public investment in higher education, enrollment dynamics, and innovation activity measured through the share of innovative organizations. Official statistical data for 2004–2024 were obtained from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan and the World Bank. The study employs econometric analysis methods, including the evaluation of multiple linear regression models, vector autoregressive models, and Granger causality tests. According to the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression results, the impact of public investment in higher education on the number of students was not statistically significant (β = –0.00035; p = 0.507), suggesting insufficient targeting of funding and inefficient channels of distribution of funds. However, the number of higher education institutions shows a statistically significant positive effect on enrollment (β = 8048.5; p = 0.002), indicating that institutional infrastructure and territorial accessibility play a more significant role in expanding access to higher education than the overall level of funding. In addition, the constructed regression model is characterized by a high explanatory power (R2 = 0.8665), which indicates the estimates’ reliability and the correctness of the choice of explanatory factors. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating investment policy in higher education with the goals of innovative development. AcknowledgmentsThis paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Modernization of the quality assurance system of higher education in Kazakhstan based on digitalization: development of approaches, mechanisms and information base” BR24992974).
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Costa, Joana, and João Barbosa. "The Role of Family Ownership on Internationalization Strategies." Administrative Sciences 14, no. 2 (2024): 29. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/admsci14020029.
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The present study examines the impact of family ownership and control on the internationalization strategies of Portuguese manufacturing firms. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing evidence that different forms of international market presence are asymmetrically influenced by family control and by underscoring the importance of innovative strategies. The analysis includes a sample of 25,533 firms observed from 2018 to 2021. Econometric models address the role of ownership in alternative internationalization endeavors, demonstrating that these firms differ from their non-family counterparts. By comparing the export propensity, intensity, and reach of family businesses to non-family businesses, the research sheds light on the challenges faced by family-owned firms and the significance of structural characteristics such as technological regimes and regional competitive advantages. The findings emphasize the negative impact of family presence on internationalization while highlighting the importance of innovation and ecosystem support. Additionally, the study contributes to the empirical refinement of firm classification by proposing a more reliable segmentation method. It also presents alternative econometric methods to appraise internationalization strategies better. Future research directions are suggested, particularly regarding the use of additional information related to innovation and human capital, offering insights for enhancing the global engagement of family businesses in global markets. This research provides valuable empirical evidence and practical implications for policymakers and practitioners seeking to support the required actions to promote the growth and internationalization of family businesses in the context of the Portuguese manufacturing industry.
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Yakymova, Larysa, and Kateryna Smolnikova. "ANALYSIS OF FIXED ASSETS OF THE ENTERPRISE: PROBLEMATICALLY-PROGNOSTIC APPROACH." INNOVATIVE ECONOMY, no. 5-6 (August 2020): 155–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.37332/2309-1533.2020.5-6.20.
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Purpose. The aim of the article is substantiation of the content and algorithm of the problematically-prognostic approach to the analysis of fixed assets and its approbation at the enterprises which according to NACE-2010 are included into the section G (wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles). Methodology of research. General scientific and special methods of cognition in the research are used in the article, such as: methods of theoretical generalization and comparative analysis – for the analysis of relevant scientific literature; systematical approach, methods of analysis and synthesis – for the substantiation of the methods of analysis of fixed assets; ratio analysis – for the analysis of the efficiency of using fixed assets; methods of mathematical statistics – for assessing the risks associated with fixed assets; methods of econometrical analysis – for building models and assessing of the impact of indicators of fixed assets on the financial results of enterprises. Findings. The main contribution of the research consists in the inclusion of such stages in the traditional method of analysis of fixed assets, such as, integral assessment of the efficiency of use, analysis of risk and problematically (econometric) analysis of fixed assets, is substantiated. Empirical results confirm an increase of the information value of such analysis that contributes to the adoption of reasonable and timely management decisions. Originality. A method of analysis of fixed assets is proposed in the research, which includes the definition of the stages of analysis, the formation of a system of indicators, methods and information base for each stage of analysis, and, unlike the existing ones, has a problematically-prognostic focus, which makes it possible to perform a comprehensive analysis of fixed assets, to determine the directions of increasing the efficiency of their use, to assess the impact on the financial results of the enterprise. Practical value. The proposed method of analysis can be used by managers and investors for a deeper understanding of the problems associated with fixed assets of the enterprise. The empirical results of the research are recommended to be used as benchmark indicators in the analysis and development of a policy for the management of fixed assets at the enterprises of section G according to NACE-2010. Key words: fixed assets, ratio analysis, analysis of risks, econometric analysis, enterprises of section G according to NACE-2010.
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Kacem, Rami B. H. "Poverty index vs richness index: a new way to analyze the determinants of poverty." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 10, no. 1 (2019): 48–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-04-2018-0110.
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Purpose The analysis of poverty is fundamentally focused on examining the well-being condition of the poor. We usually neglect the information provided by the rich. Nevertheless, perhaps the non-considered information indicating the determinants of non-poverty is also useful for fighting against poverty. The purpose of this paper is to analyze poverty under a new angle i.e. focusing on the information provided by the non-poor instead of the poor. For that a richness index is calculated in order to estimate econometric models regressing both indices i.e. poverty and richness indices on same selected characteristics. Thus, the comparison of the determinants of poverty and non-poverty for Tunisian case have allowed the classification of the selected explanatory variables with significant effect into four categories: the variables having significant effect on both sides (permanent effect), the variables having significant effect on the poor but not on the non-poor (transitory effect), the variables having significant effect on the non-poor but not on the poor (insurance effect) and the variables without any effect on both cases (neutral effect). This procedure is thus important given that it provides additional information and new way to enhance the targeting efficiency of the poor and fighting against poverty. Design/methodology/approach Using Tunisian data, an original procedure is proposed for calculating a richness index, defined based on the common formula of calculating the poverty index. Next econometric models are estimated regressing both the indices i.e. poverty and richness index on same selected characteristics. Findings The comparison of the determinants of poverty and non-poverty have allowed the classification of the selected explanatory variables with significant effect into four categories: the variables having significant effect on both sides (permanent effect), the variables having significant effect on the poor but not on the non-poor (transitory effect), the variables having significant effect on the non-poor but not on the poor (insurance effect) and the variables without any effect on both cases (neutral effect). Originality/value The analysis and the classification of the determinants of poverty according to the determinants of non-poverty is never made before in the litterature. This procedure is important given that it provides additional information and a new way to enhance the efficiency of targeting the poor and fighting against poverty.
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Taylor, Nicholas. "A note on the importance of overnight information in risk management models." Journal of Banking & Finance 31, no. 1 (2007): 161–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.01.004.
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Plaskon, Svitlana, Halina Seniv, Ivan Novosad, and Vadym Masliy. "APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE." Economic Analysis, no. 30(3) (2020): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.03.025.
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Introduction. Foreign trade operations significantly affect the development of each country's economy, in particular the value of gross domestic product, which is one of the main indicators of economic development and welfare of population. Therefore, it is necessary to study and model the impact of exports, imports and net exports on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze publications that consider export-import operations of Ukraine, study of statistical information in this area, construction and analysis of econometric models of the dynamics of foreign trade operations of Ukraine and their impact on gross domestic product. Method. The article uses regression-correlation analysis as one of the main research methods; time series theory; methods of mathematical modeling. Results. The dynamics of foreign economic operations and gross domestic product of Ukraine are researched and analyzed. It is revealed that the balance of export-import operations has a significant impact on the gross domestic product of Ukraine. An econometric model of the dependence of the nominal gross domestic product on the value of exports of goods and services (coefficient of determination 0.9795) is calculated, using statistical information for 2005-2019 years. It is substantiated that with the increase in exports of goods and services by UAH 1 billion Ukraine's nominal GDP grows by an average of UAH 2.2642 billion. The value of coefficients of import dependence and coverage of import by export in foreign economic operations of Ukraine are analyzed. It is noted that the coefficient of import dependence significantly exceeds the allowable level in the study period, due to certain imbalances in foreign trade relations. The coefficient of coverage of imports by exports only in 2005 was greater than one, and during 2006-2019 it became less than one. In this regard, it is necessary to increase export operations, obtain a positive balance of payments, make effective economic and political decisions to increase exports of Ukrainian goods and services, reduce import dependence, using and implementing innovative methods of production and management.
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Smith, G. Stevenson. "Management models for international cybercrime." Journal of Financial Crime 22, no. 1 (2015): 104–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfc-09-2013-0051.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify how the management structure of cybercriminals has changed and will continue to be revised in the future as their criminal business models are modified. In the early days of hacktivism, a distinction was made between a “hacker” and a “cracker”. The hacker was considered someone who was interested in the vulnerabilities in a computer system, but they were not out to exploit these vulnerabilities for illicit gains. Today, this is no longer true, as loosely coordinated gangs of computer hackers exploit vulnerabilities of financial institutions and the public to steal and transfer money across borders without difficulty. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews legal cases dealing with the computer theft of assets from financial institutions and individuals. The focus is on external exploits of hackers not on employee’s theft of assets. It explores the management structure used by cybercriminals who have been caught and prosecuted by legal authorities in the USA and other countries. The paper discusses how this management structure has evolved from older traditional crime business models based on “family” relationships to morphing criminal gangs based in Russia, the Ukraine and other locations almost untouchable by the US legal authorities. These new criminal networks are based on knowledge relationships and quickly disappearing network connections. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding the management structure cybercriminals will follow in the future, as they continue their criminal activities. Findings – The study provides indications of a trend toward more complex management and organizational structures among cybergangs. Originality/value – Although there are many annual studies identifying the growth of cybercrime and the types of attacks being made, but there is not even a single study that shows how the cybercrime business model has changed over the past 20 years. From that perspective, the paper provides information of a changing and more effective business model for cyberattacks.
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Böckerman, Petri, Seppo Laaksonen, and Jari Vainiomäki. "Who bears the burden of wage cuts? Evidence from Finland during the 1990s." International Journal of Manpower 28, no. 2 (2007): 100–121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/01437720710747947.
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PurposeThis paper aims to explore the incidence of nominal and real wage cuts in the Finnish private sector during the 1990s.Design/methodology/approachEstimation of econometric models for the probability of wage cuts using individual‐level wage survey data from the payroll records of the Finnish employers' organizations.FindingsCentralized nominal wage freezes together with a positive inflation rate produced real wage cuts for a large proportion of workers during the worst recession years of the early 1990s. Hence, centralized bargaining shaped the adjustment. The share of nominal wage cuts does not increase with falling inflation, which is consistent with downward wage rigidities. Full‐time workers have had a lower likelihood of wage cuts compared with part‐time workers. Declines in wages have also been more common in small plants. There is an important transitory component in wage cuts.Practical implicationsProvides useful information about the adjustment of wages at the individual level.Originality/valueFew papers have analysed individual and employer characteristics that account for wage cuts. The paper contributes to the literature on wage rigidity.
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PROSKUROVYCH, O., K. GORBATYUK, O. VALKOV, and O. VALKOVA. "MODELING OF THE COMPANY FINANCIAL PLANNING SYSTEM." Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic sciences 276, no. 6(1) (2019): 146–49. https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2019-276-6-155-160.
Full textAbstract:
The current conditions of economic development are characterized by a high level of uncertainty of the external environment, which leads to increased risks and losses when making financial decisions, and are turned by the financial crisis of the vast majority of domestic enterprises. This requires a thorough optimization of the use of financial resources, improving the accuracy of forecasting and planning of financial and economic activities of business entities. Therefore, financial planning methods should be more actively used for the successful functioning of industrial enterprises. The practice of functioning of most domestic enterprises has proved that the processes of financial planning and budgeting are ineffective due to conceptual errors in the field of financial management, inconsistency with the process of strategic planning, technological limitations of the instrument chosen for the implementation of financial planning. The increasing degree of information uncertainty and environmental instability are causing financial plans to come to fruition under conditions other than those predicted. The presence of these problems indicates the need to develop and apply fundamentally new approaches to financial planning in the uncertainty inherent in a market economy. In order to ensure effective management of the finances of national enterprises, it is urgent to create an adaptive system of financial planning, which should be flexible regarding the conditions of implementation of financial plans, and methods of its practical use based on the introduction of the latest information technologies. The main purpose of this article is to study theoretical approaches to determining the category of “financial planning”, analysis and development of models and methods of financial planning at an industrial enterprise for the use of correlation and regression analysis to further predict its financial result. The scientific article analyzes the activities of an industrial enterprise and econometric modelling and forecasting of the net financial result, which allows to improve the financial system marketing planning at the enterprise. The results of the analysis of the financial condition of the manufacturing enterprise indicate its instability, and recently the situation has worsened significantly - the enterprise has been in a financial crisis, solvency has been violated, and the size of the net financial result has been reduced. The correlation and regression analysis of changes in net profit, under the influence of equity, balance sheet currency, current assets and fixed assets, allowed us to determine the influence of individual factors on the dynamics of the effective indicator. In the process of econometric modelling, models of net profit for the functioning of the financial planning system are constructed, which are adequate for the coefficient of determination and for the Fisher criterion. Based on the results of econometric modelling, the net profit of an industrial enterprise was forecasted for the functioning of the financial planning system for the future.