Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Input-output model analysis'

The aim of the dissertation thesis is to develop a methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The following aim is to create an input-output model which is based on the compiled symmetric Time Input-Output tables. For the practical applications of this model it is crucial to link the created Input-Output model with the Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model. Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model in the conception of the submitted dissertation thesis takes into account several multiplier effects and presents more comprehensive tool for the use of the Input-Output analyses in this way. The first chapter focuses on the development of the issues linked to the Input-Output tables and analyses on the territory of the Czech Republic and in the world as well. The second chapter which is also theoretical is focused on mapping of different kinds of Input-Output analyses which are done in the world using Physical, Time or Hybrid Input-Output tables. The third chapter is a purely methodological because here it is described the methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables as well as methodological approach to the various sensitivity analyses. The fourth chapter focuses on the creation Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model and on the formal linking with the Input-Output model based on the Time Input-Output tables. The last fifth chapter is focused analytically. Methods described in the third chapter are applied on the official published data on the Czech economy. The analytical chapter is perceived in the submitted dissertation thesis as a tool for the sensitivity analysis in the sense of validation of the quality of the compiled Time Input-Output tables.

This study assesses the effect CCS employment on the global warming impact of the European cement industry using Multi-Regional Input-Output Analysis.For the cement sectors of the 28 European countries studied, technology and cohort distributions were established, thermal efficiency fuel input data were collected, and the capacity turnover and evolution of CO2 emissions from cement production of each country were determined. An economic life cycle inventory of CCS implementation for cement was established, and a cradle-to-gate assessment of the cement production with and without CCS implementation was performed using the EXIOBASE multi-regional input-output model for the years 2013, 2030, and 2050.The results of the analysis show that the implementation of CCS in the European cement industry leads to an increase in the emissions embodied in cement demand for Europe as a whole compared to a scenario where CCS is not used. However, the results of global warming impact due to cement demand vary from country. This illustrates the variations in production technologies of different countries and the importance quantifying emissions embodied in trade flows of goods throughout the world economy when calculating environmental impact.

This thesis examines the economic impact of two alternative canning plant sizes in Scott County, Virginia. The impacts of a community cannery as well as a commercial cannery are analyzed with respect to changes in output, employment, and income. Several uses for the commercial cannery are considered, such as specialization in different product categories. In both cases, an input-output model is used to evaluate the effects of the operation of the cannery in the county. The results indicate that the impact of the commercial cannery is significantly larger than the community cannery. Specialization of the commercial cannery in the Canned Specialties sector has the largest impact with respect to industry output and labor income while specialization in the Sausages and Other Prepared Meats sector has the largest impact with respect to employment.
Master of Science

A model is developed to identify the optimal capital expansion decisions for producers of s consumable products. The model features an optional selection of corporate level in a product tree hierarchy and a choice of several optimizing objective functions. The model assumes that intermediate product demand is directly dependent on demand for consumable products. Intermediate product demands are derived from demand for consumable products using a product tree similar to a bill of materials. Restrictions exist on the productive capacity of all products in the product tree, and interdependences exist between producers of the various products. Likewise, the availability of labor limits production capacities for all products in the product tree. The capital available for the capacity expansions can either be capital equity or corporate debt. The model identities the expansion strategy which optimizes the chosen economic objective function. A case study is analyzed with linear programming software to determine the optimal expansion strategy for a tire manufacturer given a hypothetical market demand for automobiles.
Master of Science

The majority of environmental input-output studies focus on a single region or country. Linking environmental input-output models to the space can provide a better understanding on the spatial relationships of consumption and production activities and associated environmental issues. This PhD thesis employs the environmental input-output techniques using geo-demographic data bases to explore spatio-environmental issues in the developed country, UK, and the developing country, China. In this thesis, four case studies (Chapters 3, 4, 5 & 6) were carried out on natural resources extraction and environmental pollution using water consumption and CO2 emissions as environmental issues. Chapter 3 assessed the UK production and consumption water footprints and found that the UK consumption water footprint was more than three times bigger than its production water footprints. About half of the UK consumption water footprints were imported from Non-OECD countries, many of which were water scarce. Chapter 4 focused on regional virtual water flows and water footprints in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The results show that the production and consumption activities outside of the basin also contributed to the water stress in the YRB, particularly the water scarce lower reach. Chapter 5 applied input-output structural decomposition analysis (10 SDA) to identify the key driving forces for China's regional CO2 emissions 2002-2007 and found that increases of final consumption such as urban household consumption, capital investment and export were the key driving forces for most of China's regions. Chapter 6 assessed the distributional effects of climate change taxation for the UK. The results showed that both CO2 and GHG taxes tended to be regressive, while a GHG tax led to a more equal distribution of the tax burden across income and lifestyle groups. This research concluded that linking environmental input-output models to space could present the spatial relationships of different regions in terms of environmental issues and build up consumption based spatio- environmental inventory. Policy implications from the four case studies have also been discussed.

A novel Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) step-up DC transformer for applications in high voltage renewable energy sources is designed and presented. This design topology can provide a high step-up conversion gain without using an internal AC transformer, to supply different DC output voltage levels from integration of various input power sources. MIMO DC transformers provide flexibility in terms of choice and availability of the power source, reduction in the number of power lines used to transfer power to pre-specified locations as well as enhancement in system reliability. The comprehensive operating principle, theoretical analysis and design criteria of the proposed MIMO step-up DC transformer have been discussed. The proposed DC transformer has the advantages of simple configuration, fewer components, high conversion gain and high efficiency. The relations between the inputs and outputs are expressed mathematically in terms of passive components and the duty cycle of power switches. Also discussed is the sizing of the employed inductors and the capacitors for a particular application. The derived input and output expressions for ideal and non-ideal DC transformer are solved numerically and the results are validated against those obtained through MATLAB-SIMULINK simulation. Tentative analysis of the numerical and simulation results shows a close correlation.

The importance of public education in rural development has received increasing attention by local and state policy makers as competition for new industry has intensified throughout rural America. Uncertainty about the relationships of public and private inputs to education output, however, presents problems to state and local officials and parents interested in improving the quality and quantity of the public education system. This research examines the education process in a production function framework to identify the relationships of education inputs to education output. A theoretical model that combines public l and household decision making into an education production process is used as the basis for the empirical model that is developed. The estimated model includes input measures for school, family, volunteer and student inputs to education production and is estimated with cross·sectional data for Virginia counties. The expenditure measure used in the model is specified as a polynomial lag. The model also is specified as a joint-product production process. The results of the analysis provide evidence of the importance of expenditures in education production and indicate that the impact of changes in expenditures occurs over time. The number of and educational levels of teachers also is associated with education output. Household and student inputs also are associated with education output. Volunteer input measures are not statistically significant in the estimated equations, a reflection of the difficulty of specifying and measuring specific volunteer inputs into the education production process. The empirical results do not support a joint production hypothesis between outputs as measured by achievement test scores and the school continuation rate.
Ph. D.

There is a plethora of methods and tools that can be used for the assessment of Urban Metabolism. Nevertheless, there is no standardized method for accounting of material flows within and across the boundaries of urban systems. This thesis aims to provide a physical accounting model for monitoring material flows in urban areas that could potentially become the basis for the development of a standardized accounting method in the long term. The model is based on a Physical Input Output Table framework and builds upon the strengths of existing accounting methods but at the same time it demonstrates new features that can address their limitations. The functions of the model were explored and evaluated through its application to an urban neighbourhood in the Stockholm Royal Seaport. Bottom-up data were used for the application of the model in the case study. The application of the model provided a preliminary description of the material flows in the neighbourhood and most importantly provided information that underpinned the assessment of the strengths and limitations of the model. It was deduced, that on the one hand the model can describe successfully the physical interactions between the urban socioeconomic system and the environment or other socioeconomic systems and at the same it has the potentials to illustrate the intersectoral flows within the boundaries of the system. In addition, it can be used to structure available data on material flows and promote the study of an urban system with a life cycle perspective. On the other hand, the process of compiling the tables of the model can be considered as complex and moreover the data requirements for the compilation of the tables are significant. Especially, the compilation of the tables of the model with bottom-up data may require a laborious data collection and analysis process, which however may not address all data gaps. Thus, the combination of bottom-up data with top-down data is recommended. Moreover, it is recommended the development of integrated databases for data collection and management at the municipal level and the fostering of collaboration between stakeholders within the municipalities to facilitate dissemination of data and information.
Mer än hälften av den globala befolkningen bor numera i urbana områden och denna andel uppskattas öka under de kommande årtiondena. Urbana system förbrukar fysiska resurser och genererar stora mängder av rester vilket innebär påfrestningar på miljön samt hindrar en hållbar utveckling. Således kan förståelse av Urban Metabolism (UM) stödja insatserna för att effektivisera resursförbrukningen och avfallshanteringen. I detta sammanhang har en stor mängd av metoder och verktyg utvecklats och tillämpats i UM-studier, såsom Materialflödeanalys (Material Flow Analysis - MFA) och Input-output Analys (Input Output - IOA) baserat på fysiska input-output tabeller (Input Output Tables – PIOTs). Ändå saknas en standardiserad metod för redovisning av materialflöden inom och över gränserna av urbana system. I samband med detta examensarbete utvecklades en fysisk räkenskapsmodell för övervakning av materialflöden i urbana områden. Denna modell kan potentiellt bli grunden för en enhetlig metod för beräkning av materialflöden i urbana system. Modellen utvecklades i en stegvis process och baserades på litteraturgranskning. Grunden för modellen är ett omfattande PIOT ramverk som kan användas för registrering av materialflöden i urbana system. PIOT ramverket är annorlunda än de typiska PIOT-systemen. Det ger en tydligare avgränsning av systemgränserna, det visar tydligt ursprung och destination för materialflöden, och dessutom kan det erbjuda ett livscykelperspektiv på materialflödena. Modellen består av en uppsättning identiska PIOT. Varje deltabell innehåller materialflöden som tillhör i en specifik klass, medan huvudtabellen aggregerar materialet som strömmar för alla material från deltabellerna. Därigenom kan modellen avbilda materialflödena i ett aggregat-perspektiv och samtidigt ge fysiska räkenskaper för specifika materialtyper. Modellen användes i en nybyggd stadsdel i Norra Djurgårdsstaden (NDS), för att utforska och bedöma dess funktioner. För att kartlägga och kvantifiera flödena i stadsdelen genomfördes en MFA baserad på “bottom-up-data”. Insamlingen och analysen av data var emellertid en besvärlig process och dessutom kunde flera materialflöden inte kvantifieras på grund av databrister. Därför kunde modellens tabeller inte fyllas fullständigt och ett flödesdiagram skapades med både kvantitativa och kvalitativa flöden. Trots att det fanns databrister lyckades tillämpningen av modellen att avbilda UM i det avgränsade urbana systemet på ett adekvat sätt. Det visade tydligt att nästan 96% av de materiella insatserna är ackumulerade i lager. Dessutom fastställde modellen kvalitativt den fysiska växelverkan mellan det urbana systemet och den naturliga miljön, det nationella socioekonomiska och det globala socioekonomiska systemet. Emellertid var det inte möjligt att bedöma modellens fullständiga potential eftersom det inte var möjligt att upprätta intersektorala kopplingar. Dessutom beräknades indirekta flöden av flera importerade material baserat på koefficienterna för materialintensitet. Detta tillvägagångssätt kan erbjuda insikt om de uppströms påfrestningar som orsakas av materialproduktionen. Dock finns det endast koefficienter för specifika material. Därför kan de inte användas för att uppskatta de indirekta flödena för varje materialinflöde. Dock framhöll deras partiella tillämpning att indirekta flödena var 38% högre än direktflödena, vilket indikerar att påfrestningar som utövas till miljön på grund av produktion av importerade material är betydande. Tillämpningen av modellen möjliggjorde en bedömning av både styrkor och svagheter hos modellen. Å ena sidan kan modellen fastställa fysiska interaktioner mellan det urbana socioekonomiska systemet och naturmiljön, det nationella socioekonomiska systemet och det globala socioekonomiska systemet. Dessutom har det potential att beskriva intersektorala flöden inom gränserna för det urbana systemet och det kan erbjuda insikt om materialinflödenas ursprung och materialutflödenas destination. En annan styrka i modellen är att den erbjuder livscykelperspektiv genom att ta hänsyn till indirekta flöden av importerade material. Å andra sidan demonstrerades att sammanställningenav modellens tabeller kräver en stor mängd data, speciellt när data erhålls med ett ”bottom-up” tillvägagångssätt. Ändå är bottom-up data inte alltid tillgängliga för urbana områden. En annan svaghet är att sammanställningenav tabellerna i modellen med bottom-up-data kräver en mödosam process för datainsamling och analys. Dessutom kräver analysen av data många antaganden som ökar osäkerheten i resultaten. Ovanstående svagheter i modellen kan hindra tillämpningen av modellen för räkenskap av materialflöden på urbana områden. Således rekommenderas kombinationen av bottom-up-data med top-down data för tillämpning av modellen. Dessutom föreslås utvecklingen av integrerade databaser för datainsamling om materialflöden i urbana områden.

This thesis concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions imposed between Russia and the EU in 2014. Firstly are conducted theoretical foundations of sanctions and their imposition from the EU as well as Russian contra-sanctions. Secondly, the analysis is based on the gravity model in trade in log-linear form and further develop out-of-sample estimations about trade potentials. Although trade potentials did not proved the expected decrease in exports from EU to Russia, the Input-Output analysis of impacts on exports of food products did so. Results yielded calculated impacts on GDP of various countries due to food embargo that are more or less comparable with the actual evolution of GDP and trade flows. Thirdly, the indirect effects of sanctions of third country effect and re-exports are observed from trade patterns. There has been recorded increased exports of food related products from the EU towards members of Euroasian Customs Union as well as increased imports from these countries to Russia. Finally, the results points out decreased economic activity of Russia due to depreciation of domestic currency, capital flight, decline in oil prices and also sanctions adding up to the problems the economy deals with. The economic impacts of sanctions are present in both parties. However, from the political view sanctions did not proved to be effective so far. Russian intervention in Ukraine territory is continuing.

This diploma thesis discusses utilization of dynamic Input-Output models as a basis for decision-making for policy makers. The first part is focused on theoretical derivation of the basic dynamic models. This part is followed by a practical application of the presented models, which proposes a method of deriving the matrix of capital and it facilitates the construction of data sources. The results show that the dynamic models are usable, but it is necessary to take into consideration their structural constraints and data limits. Data applied for 2009 show that the economic crisis has led to a 6% decline in GVA growth rates.

This diploma thesis focuses on providing complete characteristics of European electroenergetic industry by sample of 28 most important companies from 28 countries. Analyzing these companies, their financial results and relations to surroundings during terms from 2001 to 2010 is made by means of financial analysis, then output analysis and statistical analysis to prove relations between companies' financial results and macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. As a result of partial analyses there are several findings, of which the most interesting ones are following. Financial results were getting better during observating period, indebtedness was decreased in spite of low level of indebtedness at the beginning, however companies didn't show high profitability of their capital. Companies from southeastern part of Europe had worse results than the others. By statistical analysis there wasn't observed significant influence of prices of input commodities necessary for electricity production. On the other side the positive connection between domestic product with price index and development of these companies was found significant. During this period the decrease of portion of these companies in electricity production in domestic economies was found with average partial privatization.

Questa tesi è una raccolta di tre saggi di economia multisettoriale applicata. L'obiettivo è la progettazione di politiche economiche per il sistema educativo degli Stati Uniti. Un miglioramento delle prestazioni del sistema educativo può avere effetti positivi sullo sviluppo socio-economico del paese. Il metodo di analisi adottato è l'approccio della matrice di contabilità sociale, in inglese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). I modelli multisettoriali basati sulla SAM estendono l'analisi input-output tradizionale ai problemi della generazione e distribuzione del reddito e della formazione della domanda finale. L'impiego di modelli multisettoriali statici e dinamici basati sulla SAM mostra che politiche per l'istruzione progettate in modo appropriato possono stimolare la produzione di capitale umano, l'attività produttiva e la formazione di reddito contribuendo, allo stesso tempo, alla stabilizzazione del deficit del governo federale degli Stati Uniti. Il primo capitolo descrive le SAM per gli Stati Uniti per gli anni 2009 e 2012 e spiega come compilare una SAM. Il secondo descrive un modello multisettoriale statico e presenta alcune politiche per l'istruzione. Il terzo descrive un modello multisettoriale dinamico e presenta alcune politiche per l'istruzione. Le politiche proposte si dimostrano adatte a contrastare crisi e recessione e possono indicare una strada verso stabilità economica e crescita.
This dissertation is a collection of three essays on applied multisectoral analysis. The aim is to design and evaluate policies for the education system of the US. Good performances in terms of education have positive externalities on the social and economic development of a country. The methodology adopted is the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) approach, which extends traditional input-output analysis to income generation and distribution and final demand formation. Policy design and evaluation carried out through static and dynamic SAM-based multisectoral models show that well-conceived policies for education can stimulate the accumulation of human capital, production and income while contributing to the stabilization of the federal budget deficit of the US. The first chapter describes the SAMs for the US for the years 2009 and 2012 and shows how to assemble a basic SAM from readily available statistics. The second chapter discusses a static SAM-based multisectoral model and policy applications. The third chapter discusses a dynamic SAM-based multisectoral model and policy applications. The policies proposed in the second and third chapter prove to be effective in contrasting output and income downturns and can show a way for economic growth and stability.

The objective of this thesis is to study the combination of environmental Input-Output (IO) models with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) into a common framework which allows for regional/national environmental analyses meanwhile conserving process details. Our results show that this is possible by "adapting" the two methods: compiling LCI in matrix form and disaggregating as much as possible the IO tables. Given the poor data availability for detailed analyses at regional/national level, the results of this work suggest starting with a "traditional" IO analysis together with a Structural Path Analysis to identify the most polluting sectors and the paths through which the pollution is propagated. For the identified most polluting sectors, LCA data should be collected and fed into a tiered-hybrid IO-LCA model which gives the regional picture meanwhile conserves process details.

Orientador: Samuel da Silva
Resumo: Muitas aplicações da engenharia envolvem estruturas essencialmente não-lineares onde várias técnicas têm sido recentemente estudadas e investigadas por muitos pesquisadores. Dentre as várias abordagems, as que usam séries de Volterra têm apresentado propriedades úteis para fornecer um melhor entendimento para identificação e análise. Neste contexto, a presente tese propõem novas contribuições em como usar as séries de Volterra para caracterização, identificação e análise dinâmica de sistemas não-lineares usando sinais de entrada e saída e sinais somente de saída. Inicialmente, apresenta-se uma metodologia para análise de sistemas mecânicos não-lineares através das funções de resposta em frequência de alta-ordem (HOFRFs) e o conceito de HOFRFs estendidas com dados apenas de saída é introduzido e descrito em detalhes. Após isso, uma abordagem para identificação de sistemas não-lineares com base nas séries de Volterra através da expansão na base ortonormal de Kautz é proposta. Essa técnica permite identificar os seus núcleos mais facilmente e permite separar as contribuições dos termos lineares e não-lineares usando somente sinais de saída. Além disso, uma metodologia para análise modal de sistemas fracamente não-lineares sujeito a excitações com vários níveis de amplitude é também apresentada. A contribuição desse novo método reside no fato de que as HOFRFs são simplesmente estimadas como função das FRFs lineares. Basicamente, essa metodologia estende o conceito ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: Most recent engineering applications involve structures essentially nonlinear where several techniques have been recently studied and investigated by many researchers. Among them, the methods based on Volterra series expansion have presented powerful properties to provide a better understanding for identification and analysis. In this context, the present thesis proposes new contributions in how to use Volterra series for characterization, identification and dynamical analysis of nonlinear systems based on input and output signals and output-only signals. Initially, a methodology for analysis of nonlinear mechanical systems through higher-order frequency response functions (HOFRFs) is presented and the concept of extended HOFRFs based on output-only is introduced and described in detail. Afterwards, an approach for identification of nonlinear systems based on Volterra series through the expansion onto orthonormal Kautz basis is proposed. This technique allows to identify the Volterra kernels easily and enable to split the contribution of the linear and nonlinear terms using input-output as well as output-only signals. Furthermore, a methodology for modal analysis of weakly nonlinear systems under multilevel excitation is also proposed. The contribution of this new approach lies in the fact that HOFRFs are simply computed as functions of the linear FRFs. Basically, it extends the conventional experimental modal analysis methods in order to characterize and treat no... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)
Doutor

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Muitas aplicações da engenharia envolvem estruturas essencialmente não-lineares onde várias técnicas têm sido recentemente estudadas e investigadas por muitos pesquisadores. Dentre as várias abordagems, as que usam séries de Volterra têm apresentado propriedades úteis para fornecer um melhor entendimento para identificação e análise. Neste contexto, a presente tese propõem novas contribuições em como usar as séries de Volterra para caracterização, identificação e análise dinâmica de sistemas não-lineares usando sinais de entrada e saída e sinais somente de saída. Inicialmente, apresenta-se uma metodologia para análise de sistemas mecânicos não-lineares através das funções de resposta em frequência de alta-ordem (HOFRFs) e o conceito de HOFRFs estendidas com dados apenas de saída é introduzido e descrito em detalhes. Após isso, uma abordagem para identificação de sistemas não-lineares com base nas séries de Volterra através da expansão na base ortonormal de Kautz é proposta. Essa técnica permite identificar os seus núcleos mais facilmente e permite separar as contribuições dos termos lineares e não-lineares usando somente sinais de saída. Além disso, uma metodologia para análise modal de sistemas fracamente não-lineares sujeito a excitações com vários níveis de amplitude é também apresentada. A contribuição desse novo método reside no fato de que as HOFRFs são simplesmente estimadas como função das FRFs lineares. Basicamente, essa metodologia estende o conceito de métodos convencionais de analise modal experimental para caracterizar e tratar efeitos não-lineares. Os resultados via exemplos numéricos e experimentais apresentados ao longo da tese mostram as contribuições, benefícios e eficácia da proposta.
Most recent engineering applications involve structures essentially nonlinear where several techniques have been recently studied and investigated by many researchers. Among them, the methods based on Volterra series expansion have presented powerful properties to provide a better understanding for identification and analysis. In this context, the present thesis proposes new contributions in how to use Volterra series for characterization, identification and dynamical analysis of nonlinear systems based on input and output signals and output-only signals. Initially, a methodology for analysis of nonlinear mechanical systems through higher-order frequency response functions (HOFRFs) is presented and the concept of extended HOFRFs based on output-only is introduced and described in detail. Afterwards, an approach for identification of nonlinear systems based on Volterra series through the expansion onto orthonormal Kautz basis is proposed. This technique allows to identify the Volterra kernels easily and enable to split the contribution of the linear and nonlinear terms using input-output as well as output-only signals. Furthermore, a methodology for modal analysis of weakly nonlinear systems under multilevel excitation is also proposed. The contribution of this new approach lies in the fact that HOFRFs are simply computed as functions of the linear FRFs. Basically, it extends the conventional experimental modal analysis methods in order to characterize and treat nonlinear effects. The results based on numerical and experimental examples presented along the thesis show the contributions, benefits and effectiveness of the proposal.
FAPESP: 2012/09135-3
CNPq: 47058/2012-0
CNPq: 203610/2014-8

A wide range of dynamic systems can be approximated as linear and time invariant, for which a wealth of tools are available to characterize or modify their dynamic characteristics. Experimental modal analysis (EMA) is a procedure whereby the natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes which parameterize vibratory, linear, time invariant systems are derived from experimentally measured response data. EMA is commonly applied in a multitude of applications, for example, to generate experimental models of dynamic systems, validate finite element models and to characterize dissipation in vibratory systems. Recent EMA has also been used to characterize damage or defects in a variety of systems. The Algorithm of Mode Isolation (AMI), presented by Drexel and Ginsberg in 2001, employs a unique strategy for modal parameter estimation in which modes are sequentially identified and subtracted from a set of FRFs. Their natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode vectors are then refined through an iterative procedure. This contrasts conventional multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) identification algorithms, most of which attempt to identify all of the modes of a system simultaneously. This dissertation presents a hybrid multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) implementation of the algorithm of mode isolation that improves the performance of AMI for systems with very close or weakly excited modes. The algorithmic steps are amenable to semi-automatic identification, and many FRFs can be processed efficiently and without concern for ill-conditioning, even when many modes are identified. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated on noise contaminated analytical response data from two systems having close modes, one of which has localized modes while the other has globally responsive modes. The results are compared with other popular algorithms. MIMO-AMI is also applied to experimentally obtained data from shaker excited tests of the Z24 highway bridge, demonstrating the algorithm's performance on a data set typical of many EMA applications. Considerations for determining the number of modes active in the frequency band of interest are addressed, and the results obtained are compared to those found by other groups of researchers.

A method to obtain the exact control-to-output and input-to-output transfer functions for switched DC-to-DC pulse-width modulated power converters is applied to different combinations of operating conditions such as continuous conduction mode (CCM), discontinuous conduction mode (DCM), and discontinuous voltage mode (DVM) and methods of control such as normal voltage mode (NVM), current programming mode (CPM), and V-squared control. The majority of these combinations have not previously had their transfer functions of interest derived to the accuracy provided by the method. The derivation of the method is covered, and the results from its application are verified by simulation. The simulation method is also justied and proposed as an improvement to the methods used by simulation engines for switched mode power supply design such as SIMPLIS.

The thesis comprises five papers and an introductory overview of applied models and methods. The papers concern interdependences and interrelations in models applied to empirical analyses of various problems related to production, consumption, location and trade. Among different definitions of 'structural analysis' one refers to the study of the properties of economic models on the assumption of invariant structural relations, this definition is close to what is aimed at in lire present case. Although the subjects cover widely differing aspects of the economic system, applied models and methods, i.e. entropy maximizing (information minimizing) models and random utility maximizing models, are in many cases closely connected. Tlic first paper reports on a regional input-ouput study applied to Norrbotten, Sweden. The paper is mainly concentrated on developing and estimating an econometric model, describing the structural interdependences in the Norrbotten economy. The chapter is composed of three parts. The first part concerns the theoretical basis of the model, the main fields of application and principal problems in connection with the estimation. The core of the estimated model is defined by the intersectoral dependences in the Norrbotten economy. This model can be viewed as a part of a more general model of the regional economy, and such a general model is briefly outlined. The second part reports on the collection and arranging of data, and the methods used for the estimation of the model. In the third part the results are presented. A special interest concerns the effects of production changes in the basic industries in the county, as to the expected impact on different industries and occupational groups. The second paper concerns some aspects of the problem of predicting trade flows in the forest sector. The model, based on information theory, is predicting current trade flows by adjusting the historical, a priori, trade flows to satisfy current export and import totals. In the third paper an entropy model is employed to decompose the interregional and intraregional employment change in Sweden and Stockholm, during the period 1960 - 1980, into effects attributed to regions (zones), industries, occupations and interaction effects. The fourth paper presents an empirical analysis of housing choice, based on individual data of households in Stockholm. The consumer choice is regarded as a complex choice from a finite set of discrete alternatives and a probabilistic choice mode! (multinomial logit) is employed, where secondary dwelling is included in the housing choice decision. In the final paper spectral analysis is used for identifying the significant components of cycle behaviour in time series of Swedish exports of forest products over a twenty year time period.
digitalisering@umu

Politics' demand for informative consumption-based emission assessments based on multi-regional input output (MRIO) databases is steadily increasing. Based on the MRIO database EXIOBASE 3, we exemplify the utility of a range of analytical tools and discus their potential insights for consumption-based policies. The analysis decomposes the overall EU carbon footprint into product groups as well as into emitting regions. Subsequently, we illustrate the potential of applying production layer decomposition (PLD) and structural path analysis (SPA) for the assessment of global supply-chains related to the EU carbon footprint and their structural changes over time. We close with some policy ecommendations on reducing carbon footprint hot spots.
Series: Ecological Economic Papers

The increasing volume of solid waste (SW), not only arising from household (Municipal SW, MSW) but also from industrial process (Industrial SW, ISW), has become a serious issue in Chinese metropolises with the economic growth, urbanization, industrialization, and increasing affluence. Growth of industry leads to the expansion of population, while the augment of demand by increasing population stimulates the industrial growth in turn, thereby increasing not only ISW generation, but also MSW generation. Therefore, in order to solve the waste problem for the construction of sustainable waste management system in a city, it is necessary to consider these two types of waste together, in which, the emphasis should be focused on waste reduction from the source. The starting point in adopting this should be a good understanding of the upstream flow of waste and accurate knowledge of the volume and composition of waste that will be generated in the future. However, due to deficient historical records and complex production process, the effective attempts at forecasting SW generation are far from enough, especially for ISW by waste category. A common approach which is based on the limited waste statistics and can be easily popularized into Chinese countries is thus urgent. This paper, therefore, attempts the construction of a systematic approach to make projections of SW generation by waste category from the following issues: (1) to develop household consumer behaviour model taking into account lifestyle of residents and project the demand of private consumption in the future; (2) to quantitatively investigate and project MSW generation fully considering the change in consumer behaviour and waste management policies; (3) to effectively evaluate the present and future industrial structure and their contributions to ISW generation among industries; (4) to carry out a scenario analysis of calculating CO2 emissions in different waste treatment options based on the projected waste quantity and composition in 2015. The approach is applied on a city level as the basic administrative unit of SW management in China. The entire framework comprises four modules-regional macro-economic module, MSW generation module, ISW generation module, and waste treatment module. Further, the study of consumption pattern conducted from the consumer behaviour model in MSW module is a prerequisite for industrial restructuring caused by change in consumption demand in ISW module. Moreover, the regional macro-economic module is to provide a means for economic structural analysis and economic forecasting, considering the influence of national GDP and socioeconomic indicators including world trade. It is found out that the regional model fits the historical records reasonably well and provides an acceptable reproduction. In the MSW generation module for estimating and projecting MSW generation, firstly the per capita total household consumption expenditure is estimated by using total consumption expenditure model; then, household consumption pattern is estimated using an extension of the linear expenditure system (LES); thereafter, MSW generation by composition is quantitatively expressed in terms of the expenditure for consumption category and waste management policies by using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, five Chinese cities with distinct economic levels are presented by applying the module to determine the waste generation features in different regions. The research findings clearly indicate that 1) the number of variables affecting consumer behaviour in Chinese cities is not one but the integrations of a series of indicators. Aside from Shanghai, saving rate towards consumption (SAV) and natural growth rate (NAGR) are currently the two common factors. However, in Shanghai, consumer behaviour is strongly influenced by SAV and the average number of persons per household (ANPH). 2) The MSW generation model quantitatively demonstrates the linear conversion process from consumption to corresponding waste generation in all cities. For example, education and consumption of food-as the form of consumption expenditure in this research-is the source of generation of food, plastic and paper waste. Further, glass and metal waste is estimated by food expenditure in all cities. 3) Total MSW generation per unit consumption is 0.198~0.225 kg/RMB with an average value of 0.213 kg/RMB. 4) All the waste management policies analyzed in the research will provide feasible experiences or valuable lessons to other Chinese cities. 5) Volume of per capita MSW generated in 2020 will be 1.24-2.18 folds compared to that in 2008 in each city if there were no effective policies implemented advancing to diminishing waste generation. Then, for the forecasting of ISW generation of each waste category by industry, the ISW module is developed, linking three principal models-regional macro-economic model, regional input-output (IO) analysis, and ISW generation model. The approach investigates the influence of industrial restructuring on ISW generation, based on the study of consumption patterns, export composition figures and change in ISW generation coefficient. The principal priorities in the case study on Shanghai are as follows: 1) the approach provides an idea for a way to quantitatively analyze industrial restructuring by adjusting the converter that, in turn, helps assess the impact of these changes on sectoral output. 2) A sensitivity analysis describes that per yuan of increase in consumption on FOOD, CLSH, FUNI, EDUC, TRAN, HLTH and RESI induces to an average increase of 76.41, 76.16, 82.28, 106.54, 93.89, 148.30 and 292.58 g total ISW, respectively. 3) It is verified that ISW generation not only arises from economic growth but also from the onset of industrial restructuring. The unit ISW generation per gross output reduces from 0.16 to 0.14 tons/10 000 RMB as we move from 2002 to 2020. 4) It is investigated that the total volume of ISW generated in 2010, 2015 and 2020 will be 2.07, 2.83 and 4.12 times that of the 2002 levels. The total SW generation of Shanghai in 2020 will be 4.06 times of that in 2002. 5) However, if considering scenario analysis of adjusting ISW generation coefficient, the total SW generation is 1.93 times compared to 2002 and ISW is 2.18 times of MSW generation. 6) Based on our results, the industrial sectors making the biggest contribution to the production of each type of ISW can each be separately identified. Therefore, constraining specific industries or penetrating them with selective technological changes will be useful attempts on the way to meeting the objectives of overall waste reduction. Finally, in the waste treatment module, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions emitting from the treatment and disposal of waste, including landfill site, waste-to-energy incineration and composting are calculated, respectively. Further, based on the projection of waste quantity and composition of Shanghai in 2015, a scenario analysis is carried out as well concerning the GHG emissions from alternative treatment options. The results confirm that composting and recycling of waste before the treatment are effective attempts at reducing GHG emissions in Shanghai. Further, scenario designed as the integrated waste treatment system makes the biggest reduction of GHG emissions, as 34% as compared to current treatment options with energy recovery. In a word, this research develops the entire systematic approach investigating the upstream flow of waste generation from the viewpoint of economic growth, change in socioeconomic indicators and constitution of waste management policies, and makes a reasonable attempt at projecting SW generation of each type of waste category. Based on the results, it is suggested that for the waste reduction to promote sustainable society, government interventions including promoting green consumption, reducing extra consumption, et al. and waste policies such as increasing recycling and penetrating technological innovation in specific industries will be effective. Further, based on the forecasts of SW generation, the recycling and appropriate treatment of waste generating from municipal and industrial process can be examined from the long view. From the relationship between ISW and MSW generation, the development of industry will promote the growth of service industry and induce greater generation of recyclable items. While the recycling of these items before the waste treatment is essential for effectively reducing GHG emissions which contribute to global warming. In addition, the systematic model can be easily popularized into other Chinese cities even other Asian developing cities, thereby possibly promoting the sustainable waste management of China and Asian countries.
Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第14928号
工博第3155号
新制||工||1473(附属図書館)
27366
UT51-2009-M842
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
(主査)教授 松岡 譲, 教授 森澤 眞輔, 准教授 倉田 学児
学位規則第4条第1項該当

Al mercat globalitzat d’avui en dia la falta de coneixement sobre la distribució dels impactes entre els estats dificulta el disseny de polítiques efectives per la reducció, a escala global, de la degradació ambiental. L'objectiu d’aquesta tesi consisteix en la combinació de models macroeconòmics amb l’optimització multi-objectiu per facilitar la quantificació de càrregues ambientals, la distribució equitativa de responsabilitats i el disseny de polítiques públiques eficaces i sostenibles. Per aquest motiu aquí es proposen mètodes quantitatius basats en models input-output ampliats al medi ambient per estudiar la contribució de les nacions a les pressions ambientals globals, mitjançant l’estudi del cicle de vida dels productes que es consumeixen mundialment; les càrregues ambientals relacionades amb el comerç i l'equitat amb que es distribueixen els impactes. Els resultats poden ajudar a dissenyar polítiques eficaces per assegurar una justa assignació de responsabilitats. A més a més, aquesta tesi proposa un enfocament d'optimització multi-objectiu sistemàtic per minimitzar els impactes ambientals i, simultàniament, maximitzar la producció d’una economia. El model de programació lineal bi-criteri identifica els sectors clau que contribueixen significativament a l'impacte ambiental i que presenten una baixa producció econòmica. Els resultats mostren que amb les tecnologies existents i mitjançant un control adequat de la demanda dels sectors, els impactes ambientals es podrien reduir en major proporció que la producció econòmica. D’altra banda, aquesta tesi proposa un mètode basat en programació lineal per facilitar la presa de decisions en estudis ambientals de forma inversa. És a dir, donat un conjunt de solucions, aquest mètode obté els límits inferiors i superiors dels intervals dins dels quals els pesos de cada indicadors han de caure, de forma que l'alternativa seleccionada sigui òptima. D'aquesta manera, les persones encarregades de prendre decisions no estan obligades a proporcionar els pesos amb antelació, el que podria donar lloc a resultats esbiaixats.
En el mercado globalizado actual, la falta de conocimiento sobre cómo se distribuyen los impactos entre las naciones dificulta el diseño de políticas efectivas para la reducción, a escala global, de la degradación ambiental. El objetivo de esta tesis es combinar modelos macroeconómicos y optimización multiobjetivo para facilitar la cuantificación de cargas ambientales, la distribución equitativa de responsabilidades, y el diseño de políticas públicas eficaces que mejoren la sostenibilidad. Para ello, en esta tesis se proponen métodos cuantitativos basados en modelos input-output extendidos al medio ambiente para estudiar la contribución de las naciones a la presión ambiental global mediante el análisis del ciclo de vida de los productos que se consumen mundialmente, las cargas ambientales relacionadas con el comercio, y la equidad con que se distribuyen los impactos. Los hallazgos pueden ayudar a diseñar políticas eficaces para asegurar una asignación justa de responsabilidades. Además esta tesis propone un enfoque de optimización multiobjetivo sistemático para minimizar simultáneamente los impactos ambientales y maximizar la producción de una economía. El modelo de programación lineal bicriterio identifica los sectores clave que contribuyen significativamente al impacto y presentan una baja producción económica. Los resultados muestran que con las tecnologías existentes y controlando adecuadamente la demanda de ciertos sectores, los impactos ambientales podrían disminuir en mayor proporción que la producción económica. Además, esta tesis propone un método basado en programación lineal para facilitar la toma de decisiones ambientales mediante un análisis inverso. Es decir, dado un conjunto de soluciones, el método desarrollado busca los límites inferior y superior de los intervalos dentro de los cuales los pesos de cada indicador deben caer para que la alternativa seleccionada sea la óptima. De este modo, las personas encargadas de tomar decisiones no están obligadas a proporcionar los pesos de antemano, lo que podría conducir a resultados sesgados.
In today’s globalized market, the lack of knowledge about how the impacts distribute among nations hinders the design of effective policies for reducing the environmental degradation at a global scale. The aim of this thesis is to combine macroeconomic models with multi-objective optimization to facilitate the quantification of environmental loads, the fair allocation of responsibilities, and the design of effective public policies aiming at sustainability. To these end here we propose quantitative methods based on environmentally extended input-output models to study the contribution of nations to the global environmental pressures by examining the life cycle of products consumed worldwide; the trade-embodied environmental loads; and the equity with which impacts are distributed. Findings may help to design effective policies ensuring a fair allocation of responsibilities. This thesis also proposes a systematic multi-objective optimization approach for simultaneously minimizing the environmental impacts and maximizing the output of an economy. The bi-criteria linear programming model identifies key sectors with significant impact contribution and low output. Results show that, with the existing technologies, the environmental impacts could be lowered in higher proportion than the economic output by controlling adequately the demand of sectors. Moreover, this thesis proposes a method based on linear-programming to facilitate decision-making in environmental studies in an inverse manner. That is, given a set of solutions, this method finds the lower and upper limits of the intervals within which the weights to be attached to the indicators must fall, so that the selected alternative becomes optimal. Thereby, decision makers are not required to provide weights beforehand that could lead to biased results.

In various international policy processes such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals, an urgent demand for robust consumption-based indicators of material flows, or material footprints (MFs), has emerged over the past years. Yet, MFs for national economies diverge when calculated with different Global Multiregional Input-Output (GMRIO) databases, constituting a significant barrier to a broad policy uptake of these indicators. The objective of this paper is to quantify the impact of data deviations between GMRIO databases on the resulting MF. We use two methods, structural decomposition analysis and structural production layer decomposition, and apply them for a pairwise assessment of three GMRIO databases, EXIOBASE, Eora, and the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) database, using an identical set of material extensions. Although all three GMRIO databases accord for the directionality of footprint results, that is, whether a countries' final demand depends on net imports of raw materials from abroad or is a net exporter, they sometimes show significant differences in level and composition of material flows. Decomposing the effects from the Leontief matrices (economic structures), we observe that a few sectors at the very first stages of the supply chain, that is, raw material extraction and basic processing, explain 60% of the total deviations stemming from the technology matrices. We conclude that further development of methods to align results from GMRIOs, in particular for material-intensive sectors and supply chains, should be an important research priority. This will be vital to strengthen the uptake of demand-based material flow indicators in the resource policy context.

Disruptions to the freight transportation system are costly due to freight's critical relationship to economic productivity. This research will analyze the current methods of estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to the freight transportation system. A review of existing literature will be conducted with the intent of finding methods that address different types of disruptions and impacts. Due to varying economic scopes and disruptions studied, the results will likely indicate a broad range of methodologies and trends. The results will be used to better understand the different approaches taken when quantifying the economic impacts of disruptions and therefore enable more informed policy, regulation and investment.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
The global energy mix, including Brazil, has shown changes as their main sources of energy, in order to ensure efficiency and continuity of the production process. In this sense, this work aims to verify, through the hybrid input-output, such as changes in the Brazilian energy matrix between 2000 and 2005 impacted the intensity of CO2 emissions in Brazil. The hybrid matrix built account the energy consumed in the production process as a whole, taking into account the energy consumed in the production of final goods as well as the as the one used in the production of intermediate goods. Such research is necessary because there is a growing concern about environmental issues, and increased use of energy, whatever the source, increases the emission of CO2 in the atmosphere at the same time that energy resources are fundamental inputs for growth economic. For this, we used the input-output hybrid contemplating energy sectors to meet both cross-industry fuel consumption and thus CO2 emissions. In addition, we use the structural decomposition analysis to assess whether the change in emission is a result of technological change or whether it is a result of a demand shock. The result observed is that between the years 2000 and 2005 was the replacement of more polluting sources by less polluting as gas, mainly in the sectors of oil refining. But the increase in energy intensity generated an increase in CO2 emissions despite the natural gas is less polluting. For the energy sector, this variation is due mainly to changes in final demand.
As matrizes energéticas mundiais, inclusive a brasileira, vêm apresentando mudanças quanto as suas principais fontes de energia, como forma de garantir a eficiência e a continuidade do processo de produção. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho objetiva verificar, através da matriz insumo-produto híbrida, como transformações na matriz energética brasileira entre 2000 e 2005 impactaram na intensidade de emissão de CO2 no Brasil. A matriz insumo-produto híbrida contabiliza a energia consumida no processo produtivo como um todo, levando em consideração a energia gasta na produção de bens final como também aquela utilizada na produção de bens intermediários. Tal pesquisa faz-se necessário porque há uma crescente preocupação com a questão ambiental, e o aumento do uso de energia, seja qual for à fonte, aumenta as emissões de CO2 na atmosfera ao mesmo tempo em que os recursos energéticos são insumos fundamentais para o crescimento econômico. Para isso, foram contemplados setores energéticos para conhecer as mudanças intersetoriais do consumo de combustíveis, e consequentemente da emissão de CO2. Além disso, utiliza-se a Análise de Decomposição Estrutural para avaliar se a variação da emissão é resultado de uma mudança tecnológica ou se é consequência de um choque de demanda. O resultado observado é que entre os anos de 2000 e 2005 houve a substituição de fontes mais poluentes por menos poluentes como o gás natural, principalmente nos setores de refino de petróleo. Mas, o aumento da intensidade energética, gerou um acréscimo na emissão de CO2 apesar do gás natural ser menos poluente. Para o setor energético, essa variação é conseqüência, principalmente, de mudanças na demanda final.

O principal objetivo desta tese foi avaliar o desempenho das atividades do setor de flores de corte, com relação à integração da cadeia e à competitividade no mercado externo, assim como aprimorar o entendimento das contribuições e entraves da logística para a floricultura. Para tal foi desenvolvido um modelo insumo-produto que se revelou como ferramenta importante para avaliar os impactos de alterações nos processos que fazem parte dessa cadeia de exportação. Foi realizada coleta de dados junto a agentes representativos da cadeia de flores, localizados na região de Holambra e na Grande São Paulo, relacionados a cada uma das fases associadas aos processos de exportação de gérbera e lírio, ou seja, desde a produção (A), passando pela distribuição interna via modal rodoviário (B), distribuição externa via modal aéreo (C) e distribuição externa via modal rodoviário (D). Para caracterizar situações de déficit e superávit logísticos e avaliar os impactos de falhas em cada um dos processos da cadeia de flores de corte, foram construídos cinco cenários. Na sua composição foram identificados parâmetros técnicos, principalmente relacionados à logística, que pudessem interferir na exportação de flores de corte. Os valores de três deles - número de hastes por caixa, taxa de câmbio e frete aéreo - foram alterados e combinados, constituindo 36 simulações para auxiliar na análise desses cenários. Os resultados obtidos sinalizaram para a necessidade de ajustes logísticos diferenciados em cada um dos processos, variando em função do tipo de relacionamento estabelecido entre os agentes envolvidos nas diferentes etapas. O desempenho da cadeia como um todo pode ser afetado pela falta de conhecimento sobre as características do produto exportado, que gera distorções nas informações repassadas para os agentes da cadeia. Verificou-se que as falhas ocorridas em cada etapa podem aumentar significativamente os custos e inibir as exportações em situações mais desfavoráveis do câmbio. Por outro lado, o aumento no número de hastes comercializadas por caixa representou uma alternativa para amenizar o incremento de custos ao longo da cadeia. Apesar da produção caracterizar-se como elo importante entre todas as etapas, se não forem verificadas condições mínimas para armazenamento e transporte adequados, poderão ocorrer perdas significativas no volume comercializado, com redução da competitividade desse produto no exterior e não continuidade de sua exportação no longo prazo. Assim sendo, confirmou-se que a integração da cadeia é essencial para a otimização dos processos de exportação de flores, incluindo a maximização dos resultados econômicos e financeiros relacionados a esse segmento de negócios.
The main objectives of this thesis were to evaluate the performance of the cut flower sector, concerning supply chain integration and external market competitiveness, and to heighten the understanding of the contributions and obstacles of logistics to floriculture. An input-output model developed proved to be an important tool to evaluate the impact of changes in the processes involved in that exportation chain. Data were colleted from representative players of the flower chain, in the Holambra and Greater Sao Paulo regions, referring to every one of the stages associated to the gerbera and lily exportation processes, i.e., from production (A), to internal distribution by highway modal (B), to external distribution by airway modal (C) and to external distribution by highway modal (D). Five scenarios were built to analyze deficit and surplus situations and to evaluate the impact of failures occurring in each process of the cut flower chain. Technical parameters were identified in the scenarios composition, mainly related to logistics, that could interfere in the cut flower exportation. The values of three of them – number of stems by box, exchange rate and air freight – were modified and combined to create 36 simulations to support the analysis of those scenarios. The results point to the need for differentiated logistic adjusts in each process, according to the type of relationship established among the players involved in the stages. The development of the chain as a whole may be affected by lack of knowledge on the characteristics of the exported product, which causes distortions in the information forwarded to the players. It was verified that the failures occurring in each phase could increase costs and inhibit exportations in the event of unfavorable exchange rate movements. On the other hand, an increased stem number commercialized by box represented an alternative to assuage cost increases through the chain. Although production is characterized as an important link throughout all stages, unless the minimum conditions for adequate storage and transport are fulfilled, there will be significant losses in the commercialized volume, thus reducing this product competitiveness abroad and discontinuing its exportation in the long run. Therefore, it was corroborated that the integration of the chain is essential to the optimization of flower exportation, including the maximization of the economic and financial results related to this business segment.

Le test à base de modèles des systèmes réactifs est le processus de vérifier si un système sous test (SUT) est conforme à sa spécification. Il consiste à gérer à la fois la génération des données de test et le calcul de verdicts en utilisant des modèles. Nous spécifions le comportement des systèmes réactifs à l'aide des systèmes de transitions symboliques temporisées à entrée-sortie (TIOSTS). Quand les TIOSTSs sont utilisés pour tester des systèmes avec une interface centralisée, l'utilisateur peut ordonner complètement les événements (i.e., les entrées envoyées au système et les sorties produites). Les interactions entre le testeur et le SUT consistent en des séquences d'entrées et de sortie nommées traces, pouvant être séparées par des durées dans le cadre du test temporisé, pour former ce que l'on appelle des traces temporisées. Les systèmes distribués sont des collections de composants locaux communiquant entre eux et interagissant avec leur environnement via des interfaces physiquement distribuées. Différents événements survenant à ces différentes interfaces ne peuvent plus être ordonnés. Cette thèse concerne le test de conformité des systèmes distribués où un testeur est placé à chaque interface localisée et peut observer ce qui se passe à cette interface. Nous supposons qu'il n'y a pas d’horloge commune mais seulement des horloges locales pour chaque interface. La sémantique de tels systèmes est définie comme des tuples de traces temporisées. Nous considérons une approche du test dans le contexte de la relation de conformité distribuée dtioco. La conformité globale peut être testée dans une architecture de test en utilisant des testeurs locaux sans communication entre eux. Nous proposons un algorithme pour vérifier la communication pour un tuple de traces temporisées en formulant le problème de message-passing en un problème de satisfaction de contraintes (CSP). Nous avons mis en œuvre le calcul des verdicts de test en orchestrant à la fois les algorithmes du test centralisé off-line de chacun des composants et la vérification des communications par le biais d'un solveur de contraintes. Nous avons validé notre approche sur un cas étude de taille significative
Model-based testing of reactive systems is the process of checking if a System Under Test (SUT) conforms to its model. It consists of handling both test data generation and verdict computation by using models. We specify the behaviour of reactive systems using Timed Input Output Symbolic Transition Systems (TIOSTS) that are timed automata enriched with symbolic mechanisms to handle data. When TIOSTSs are used to test systems with a centralized interface, the user may completely order events occurring at this interface (i.e., inputs sent to the system and outputs produced from it). Interactions between the tester and the SUT are sequences of inputs and outputs named traces, separated by delays in the timed framework, to form so-called timed traces. Distributed systems are collections of communicating local components which interact with their environment at physically distributed interfaces. Interacting with such a distributed system requires exchanging values with it by means of several interfaces in the same testing process. Different events occurring at different interfaces cannot be ordered any more. This thesis focuses on conformance testing for distributed systems where a separate tester is placed at each localized interface and may only observe what happens at this interface. We assume that there is no global clock but only local clocks for each localized interface. The semantics of such systems can be seen as tuples of timed traces. We consider a framework for distributed testing from TIOSTS along with corresponding test hypotheses and a distributed conformance relation called dtioco. Global conformance can be tested in a distributed testing architecture using only local testers without any communication between them. We propose an algorithm to check communication policy for a tuple of timed traces by formulating the verification of message passing in terms of Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP). Hence, we were able to implement the computation of test verdicts by orchestrating both localised off-line testing algorithms and the verification of constraints defined by message passing that can be supported by a constraint solver. Lastly, we validated our approach on a real case study of a telecommunications distributed system

The present study consists of two independent essays that approach two types of inequality on the state of Bahia which, although being related, have distinct features. The first essay sought to understand the dynamics of production and income disparities between the micro regions of the state of Bahia and to decompose the regional employment growth between 2004-2014, using the Williamson’s coefficient and the shift-share analysis. The results showed that there was a reduction of the interregional inequality of income in the Brazilian territory of Bahia, as well as the reallocation of the formal employment by the productive activities in the micro regions. On the other hand, the second essay brings a discussion about the productive structure influence on the changes in the interpersonal income distribution in the Brazilian State of Bahia. In this case, the base of the analysis is the application of Leontief-Miyazawa’s (1976) model and the impact measurement of exogenous changes on the income. For this purpose, we used data from an input-output matrix of the Bahia state for the year 2009 (PEROBELLI et al., 2015), as well as information about families consumption and income from Household Budge Survey – POF 2002/2003 – and the National Household Sampling Survey – PNAD 2009. Following, we run two simulations aiming to analyze the income’s transfer impact, respectively, on poor and extremely poor families, and the measurement of the Gini's coefficients. The results suggest that the productive sectors present different capacities among themselves to cause changes upon the income distribution, and that governmental transfer cause the reduction of income inequality in the Brazilian State of Bahia.
A presente dissertação é composta por dois ensaios independentes que abordam dois tipos de desigualdade no estado da Bahia que, embora estejam inter-relacionados, possuem caráter distinto. Assim, o primeiro ensaio buscou compreender a dinâmica das disparidades produtiva e de renda entre as microrregiões do estado da Bahia e decompor o crescimento regional do emprego entre os anos 2004 e 2014, utilizando, respectivamente, o coeficiente de Williamson e a análise diferencial-estrutural. Os resultados obtidos revelaram que houve redução da desigualdade inter-regional de renda no território baiano, bem como a realocação do emprego formal gerado pelas atividades produtivas em suas microrregiões. Por sua vez, o segundo ensaio apresenta a discussão acerca da influência da estrutura produtiva sobre as alterações na distribuição interpessoal de renda no estado da Bahia. Nesse caso, a análise está centrada na aplicação do modelo de insumo-produto de Leontief-Miyazawa (1976), a partir do qual foram estimados os impactos de mudanças exógenas sobre a renda. Para tanto, foram utilizados os dados da matriz insumo-produto da Bahia para o ano-base de 2009 (PEROBELLI et al., 2015), bem como as informações de consumo e rendimento das famílias obtidas, respectivamente, por meio da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiares (POF 2002/2003) e da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD 2009). Na sequência, foram realizadas duas simulações visando analisar o impacto da redução nas transferências de renda (benefícios previdenciários e programas de transferências direta), respectivamente, às famílias pobres e extremamente pobres, e calculados os indicadores de desigualdade de Gini. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que os setores produtivos possuem capacidades distintas entre si de provocar mudanças sobre a distribuição de renda, e que as transferências governamentais atuam como redutores das desigualdades de rendimentos no estado.
São Cristóvão, SE

Enforcing security policies to distributed systems is difficult, in particular, when a system contains untrusted components. We designed AspectKE*, a distributed AOP language based on a tuple space, to tackle this issue. In AspectKE*, aspects can enforce access control policies that depend on future behavior of running processes. One of the key language features is the predicates and functions that extract results of static program analysis, which are useful for defining security aspects that have to know about future behavior of a program. AspectKE* also provides a novel variable binding mechanism for pointcuts, so that pointcuts can uniformly specify join points based on both static and dynamic information about the program. Our implementation strategy performs fundamental static analysis at load-time, so as to retain runtime overheads minimal. We implemented a compiler for AspectKE*, and demonstrate usefulness of AspectKE* through a security aspect for a distributed chat system.

碩士
國立中央大學
土木工程學系
101
The paper discusses the inoperability input-output model (IIM). The IIM is based on Leontief's input-output model, which characterizes interdependencies among sectors in the economy and analyzes initial disruptions to a set of sectors and the resulting ripple effects for modeling impacts of attacks on infrastructure interdependency. The IIM can systemically prioritize and manage the sectors deemed critical and also identify those sectors of which continued operability is critical during recovery. Discussion of modeling the physics of infrastructure and a disaster mitigation approach to stopping IIM-related possible future failure events is addressed, followed by the analysis results of sample infrastructure failure records. Disaster mitigation officials can employ the proposed approach to exploring IIM and designing countermeasures when a disaster hits certain areas.

碩士
國立成功大學
資源工程學系
88
Sustainable development seeks to meet current needs of the society. It requires a dynamic state of harmony between economic activities and ecological processes. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a systematic tool to provide the information. Then the International Standards Organization (ISO) recognized life cycle assessment as an important approach in product and process evaluation and in setting environmental performance goals. The major strength of LCA is its comprehensiveness, but the foremost problem with LCA also is its comprehensiveness. Equally credible analyses with slightly defferent problem boundaries can produce qualitatively different results. The study will applies Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis (EIO-LCA) model to address the boundanry definition problem in LCA, and to estimate economy-wide and environmental discharges taking cement sector as a case study. There are four stages in cement life cycle namely: material muck, material transportation, manufacture and product transportation. The manufacture stage contributes most in energy consumption (94.15%), Global Warming Potential (96.7%) and Acidification Potential (57%). The product transportation stage only contributes 5.27% of total energy consumption. However its quaulity is higher than selected sectors (e.g. mining, glass) appeared in Energy Balance Table. Then product transportation stage contributes 2.73% of Global Warming Potential, and 35% of total Acidification Potential.

Tese de doutoramento em Sistemas de Energia Sustentável, apresentada ao Departamento de Engenharia Mecânica da Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra
As relações entre o consumo de energia, o crescimento econômico e os impactos ambientais são determinantes para o processo de formulação de políticas. A Análise Input-Output (AIO) tem sido usada para estudar inter/intra-relações entre os diferentes setores económicos, bem como estendida para a análise dos sistemas energético e ambiental. Modelos de Programação Linear Multi-objetivo (PLMO) utilizando a estrutura Input-Output (IO) também vêm sendo desenvolvidos para estudar os compromissos (trade-offs) entre os sistemas económico, energético e ambiental. Os modelos IO-PLMO são capazes de captar a complexidade e natureza conflituosa dos problemas do mundo real, permitindo a obtenção de um informação relevante que não seria possível conseguir com uma aplicação separada de ambas as metodologias. Esta combinação de modelos de PLMO e AIO desempenha um papel complementar na compreensão das interações entre os sistemas económicos e energéticos, e os correspondentes impactos ambientais, oferecendo um quadro consistente para avaliar os efeitos de políticas distintas sobre estes sistemas. Um modelo de PLMO baseado em uma estrutura IO híbrida com unidades monetárias e físicas é apresentado nesta tese. Este modelo tem como objetivo avaliar os trade-offs entre objectivos económicos, energéticos, ambientais e sociais no sistema económico brasileiro. Primeiramente, as tabelas IO para o Brasil são reorganizadas para incluir o Balanço Energético Nacional, criando uma estrutura IO híbrida com unidades físicas e monetárias. Este quadro é estendido para avaliar diferentes Gases de Efeito Estufa (GEE), que são então agregados em um único indicador (CO2eq), e o nível de emprego. Duas versões do modelo de PLMO são definidas: uma versão com valores determinísticos e outra em que a programação intervalar é usada para tratar a incerteza em alguns coeficientes do modelo. A versão determinística do modelo tem 443 variáveis (incluindo a produção dos setores e produtos energéticos e várias variáveis econômicas) e um conjunto de 490 restrições (definidoras e limitadoras). As funções objetivo consideradas são a maximização dos níveis do PIB e do emprego, bem como a minimização do consumo de energia e emissões de GEE. Os métodos interativos STEM e o TRIMAP são aplicados para tratar a versão determinística do modelo, permitindo a exploração de soluções de compromisso de acordo com as informações de preferência emitidas pelo decisor. O STEM permitiu um processo de busca de solução interativa através da redução da região admissível baseada na especificação de quantidades de relação para as função objetivo com valores já satisfatórios, fornecendo informações sobre os trade-offs entre os objetivos conflitantes em diferentes regiões da região admissível. O método interativo TRIMAP ofereceu uma pesquisa flexível de soluções através de um ambiente gráfico amigável baseada na visualização das regiões de indiferença associadas a soluções vértices eficientes no diagrama paramétrico, permitindo uma exploração progressiva e seletiva de soluções de compromisso. Ambos os métodos forneceram informações de apoio à decisão relevante para um decisor hipotético, ajudando-o na compreensão dos trade-offs em jogo e na identificação de soluções de compromisso para os modelos de PLMO. A versão intervalar do modelo IO-PLMO híbrido, que inclui 518 restrições e 473 variáveis, é analisada com uma abordagem interativa que envolve a formulação de modelos determinísticos substitutos para o modelo de PLMO intervalar (baseado na minimização do pior desvio possível das funções objetivo intervalar em relação as suas soluções ideais intervalares correspondentes) e de uma fase interativa em que a sinergia entre o algoritmo (prestando informações ao decisor) e o decisor (processando as informações e fornecendo orientações para o processo de cálculo) facilitando um processo de pesquisa com base na proximidade dos valores da solução intervalar em relação à solução intervalar ideal. Perspectivas otimistas e pessimistas foram consideradas a fim de procurar soluções com diferentes alternativas de decisão. Finalmente, os impactos de diferentes processos de cultivo de cana de açúcar e de produção de bioetanol de primeira (1G) e segunda geração (2G) sobre o sistema económico brasileiro e a oferta doméstica de bioetanol em cenários prospetivos foram analisados com a versão determinística do modelo de PLMO. Coeficientes técnicos para diferentes configurações de usinas de bioetanol de produção combinada de 1G + 2G e sistemas de cultivo da cana foram estimados e introduzidos na matriz de coeficientes técnicos. As funções objetivo foram a maximização do PIB e do emprego, e a minimização do consumo de energia e das emissões totais de GEE. A maximização da produção total de bioetanol no país em cada cenário também foi considerado. Soluções não-dominadas foram calculadas através da minimização da distância de Tchebycheff para a solução ideal em cada cenário. A extensão da análise envolvendo todo o sistema económico veio complementar o desenho e a análise baseada em processos potenciais de produção de bioetanol, contribuindo para identificar efeitos indiretos que podem contrabalançar os benefícios. Esta tese fornece modelos, metodologias e conhecimento baseado na avaliação das soluções obtidas com diferentes processos de cálculo, que é essencial para o desenvolvimento de abordagens integradas para a análise prospetiva dos trade-offs económico-energético-ambiental em um país e em um setor específico.
The study and assessment of the relationships between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental impacts is determinant for the policy making process. Input-Output Analysis (IOA) has been used to study inter/intra-relationships among different sectors in the economic system and extended to account for energy and environmental impacts. Multi-objective Linear Programming (MOLP) models using the Input-Output (IO) framework has also been developed to study economic-energy-environment trade-offs. The IO-MOLP models are able to capture the complexity and conflicting nature of real world problems allowing obtaining insightful information that would not be possible to achieve with a separated application of both methodologies. This combination of multi-objective models with IOA plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies. A MOLP model based on a hybrid IO framework with monetary and physical units is presented in this thesis. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. Firstly, the IO tables for Brazil are reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework. This framework is extended to assess different Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, which are then aggregated into a single indicator (CO2eq), and the employment level. Two versions of the MOLP model are defined: a version with deterministic values and another one in which interval programming techniques are used for tackling the uncertainty in some coefficients of the model. The deterministic version of the model has 443 variables (including the total output of sectors and energy commodities and several economic variables) and a set of 490 (defining and bound) constraints. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP and employment levels, and the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. The STEM and TRIMAP interactive methods are applied to the deterministic version of the model, allowing the exploration of compromise solutions according to the preference information issued by the decision maker (DM). STEM allows an interactive solution search process through the reduction of the feasible region based on the specification of relaxation quantities for the already satisfactory objective functions, thus providing information about the trade-offs that are at stake between the competing objectives in different regions of the search space. The TRIMAP interactive method offers a flexible search for solutions in a user-friendly graphical environment based on the display of indifference regions associated with vertex efficient solutions on the parametric diagram, allowing a progressive and selective exploration of compromise solutions. Both methods have provided relevant decision support information to a hypothetical DM assisting him/her in understanding the trade-offs at stake and identifying compromise solutions to the MOLP models. The interval version of the hybrid IO-MOLP model, which includes 518 constraints and 473 variables, is analyzed with an interactive approach involving the formulation of surrogate deterministic models for the interval MOLP model (based on the minimization of the worst possible deviation of the interval objective functions to their corresponding interval ideal solutions) and an interactive phase in which a synergy between the algorithm (providing information to the DM) and the DM (processing the information and providing guidelines for the computation process). This approach has allowed a reference point searching process based on the closeness of the values of the interval solution in relation to the ideal interval solution. Optimistic and pessimistic perspectives have been considered in order to search for solutions using different decision alternatives. Finally, impacts of different sugarcane cultivation and first-generation (1G) and second-generation (2G) bioethanol production processes on the Brazilian economic system and domestic bioethanol supply in prospective scenarios are analyzed with the deterministic version of the MOLP model. Technical coefficients for different configurations of combined 1G+2G bioethanol plants and sugarcane cultivation are estimated and introduced into the Brazilian technical coefficient matrix. The objective functions are the maximization of GDP and employment level, and the minimization of total energy consumption and GHG emissions. The maximization of the total bioethanol production in the country in each scenario is also considered. Non-dominated solutions are computed by minimizing a Tchebycheff distance to the ideal solution in each scenario. Extending the analysis to the whole economic system has complemented the process design and process-based analysis of prospective bioethanol production, contributing to identify indirect effects that can counterbalance the benefits. This thesis provides models, methodologies and knowledge based on the assessment of the solutions obtained in the different computation processes that is essential for the development of integrated approaches for prospective analysis of economic-energy-environmental trade-offs in a country and a specific sector.
FCT - SFRH/BD/42960/2008

The convenience of Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), over conventional Experimental Modal Analysis (EMA), has seen to its increasing popularity over the last decade for the purpose of evaluating dynamic properties of structures. OMA features an advantage of requiring only output information, which is in tandem with its main drawback of lacking scaled modeshape information. While correctly scaled modeshapes can be assumed under a restrictive assumption of spectrally white inputs, in reality, input spectra are at best broadband in nature. In this thesis, an OMA method for Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) applications in mechanical structures is developed. The aim is to separate MIMO responses into a collection of Single-Input Single-Output (SISO) processes (matrix FRF) using cepstral-based methods, under less restrictive and hence more realistic coloured broadband excitation. Existing cepstral curve-fitting techniques can be subsequently applied to give regenerated FRFs with correct relative scaling. This cepstral-based method is based on the matrix Mean Differential Cepstrum (MDC) and operates in the frequency domain. Application of the matrix MDC onto MIMO responses leads to a matrix differential equation which together with the use of finite differences, directly solves or identifies the matrix FRF in a propagative manner. An alternative approach based on whitened MIMO responses can be similarly formulated for the indirect solution of the matrix FRF. Both the direct and indirect approaches can be modified with a Taylor series approximation to give a total of four propagative solution sequences. The method is developed using relatively simple simulated and experimental systems, involving both impulsive and burst random excitations. Detailed analysis of the results is performed using more complicated Single-Input Multiple-Output (SIMO) and MIMO systems, involving both driving and non-driving point measurements. The use of the matrix MDC method together with existing cepstral curve-fitting technique to give correct relative scaling is demonstrated on a simulated MIMO system with coloured inputs. Accurate representation of the actual FRFs is achieved by the matrix MDC technique for SIMO set-ups. In MIMO scenarios, excellent identification was obtained for the case of simulated impulsive input while the experimental and burst random input cases were less favourable. The results show that the matrix MDC technique works in MIMO scenarios, but possible noise-related issues need to be addressed in both experimental and burst random input cases for a more satisfactory identification outcome.

O Norte 2020 é um dos programas operacionais do Portugal 2020, o programa de incentivos resultante do acordo de parceria entre Portugal e a União Europeia, no qual são definidos os princípios de programação que consagram a política de desenvolvimento económico, social e territorial a promover em Portugal de 2014 a 2020. Neste trabalho é estimado o impacto do investimento elegível aprovado pelo Norte 2020 desde o inicio de 2014, quando este entrou em vigor, até ao terceiro trimestre de 2017, tendo sido aplicado para este efeito o modelo Input-Output. A análise Input-Output desenvolvida por Leontief, considera os efeitos diretos, indiretos e induzidos provocados por uma alteração na procura final, neste caso resultante do investimento realizado pelo programa operacional Norte 2020. Verificou-se que o acréscimo total de produção gerado pelo investimento elegível do Norte 2020 ultrapassa os 5500 milhões de euros, correspondente a 2,91% do PIB. Tendo surtido efeitos essencialmente em sectores como serviços financeiros, serviços de administração pública e setor têxtil. Representou um total de acréscimo no VAB de quase 2800 milhões de euros representando 1,86% do VAB total. Estima-se também que este investimento tenha gerado aproximadamente 96000 postos de trabalho, o correspondente a cerca de 2% da população empregada, essencialmente em atividades relacionadas com serviços de educação, serviços de administração publica e no setor têxtil.
Norte 2020 is an operational programme of Portugal 2020, part of the incentives programme of the European Union. An operational programme is a plan in which each Member State of the EU set out how money from the European Structural and Investment Funds will be spent during the programming period. It intends to promote economic, social and territorial development in Portugal from 2014 to 2020. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the eligible investment approved by Norte 2020 until the third trimester of 2017, since the beginning of the programme in 2014. For this purpose it was applied the Leontief model as known as Input-Output model. The Input-Output model was first developed by Wassily Leontief in the 1930s, this model represents, in a matrix, the economic activity of a country segmented by sectors of activity. This instrument allows the study of interdependencies between different activity sectors in an economy, making it possible to measure the effects caused in an economy by a change in the final demand, differentiated in direct, indirect and induced effects. In this study the change in final demand is a result of the investment made by Norte 2020. Applying the analysis it has been found that the total increase in production generated by the eligible investment of the Norte 2020 exceeds 5500 million euros, corresponding to 2.91% of GDP. It has had effects mainly in sectors such as financial services, public administration services and the textile sector. This investment represented a total increase in GVA of almost 2800 million euros, 1.86% of total GVA. It is also estimated that this investment generated approximately 96 000 jobs, corresponding to about 2% of the employed population, mainly in activities related to education services, public administration services and in the textile sector.

This dissertation is a collection of essays on challenges in international trade and international finance, which apply econometric methods to diverse data sets and relate them to economic policy questions. In times of crises, the question, whether individual countries have the ability to pursue idiosyncratic monetary policy, is important. The degree of integration and comovement between financial markets, for instance, is critical to better assess the real threat facing a country in a crisis. Also, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. Hence, in a first essay, we reinvestigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates. Overall, we only find little evidence of comovements: common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order can be found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings in the literature are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. Hence, we conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures. This finding indicates that scope for individual countries to pursue stabilization policy does still exist in a globalized world. Emerging economies, in general, are much more exposed and vulnerable to crises than industrialized countries. Accordingly, stabilization policy is especially important in these countries and the selection of the best monetary regime is essential. This is why, in a second essay, we contrast two different views in the debate on official dollarization: the Mundell (1961) framework of optimum currency areas and a model on boom-bust cycles by Schneider and Tornell (2004), who take account of credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income countries. We highlight the strikingly different role of the exchange rate in the two models. While in the Mundell framework the exchange rate is expected to smooth the business cycle, the second model predicts the exchange rate to play an amplifying role. We empirically evaluate both models for eight highly dollarized Central American economies. We document the existence of credit market imperfections and find that shocks from the exchange rate indeed amplify business cycles in these countries. Using a new method proposed by Cubadda (1999 and 2007), we furthermore test for cyclical comovement and reject the hypothesis that the selected countries form an optimum currency area with the United States according to the Mundell definition. In the context of the recent global crisis, globalization and vertical integration in particular were often blamed for being the cause for the severe trade crisis. For that reason, in the essay that contributes to the trade literature, we analyze the role of international supply chains in explaining the long-run trade elasticity and its short-term volatility in the context of the recent trade collapse. We adopt an empirical strategy based on two steps: first, stylized facts on long- and short-term trade elasticity are derived from exploratory analysis and formal modeling on a large and diversified sample of countries. Then, we derive observations of interrelated input-output matrices for a demonstrative sub-set of countries. We find evidence for two supply chain related factors to explain the overshooting of trade elasticity during the 2008-2009 trade collapse: the composition and the bullwhip effect. However, evidence for a magnification effect could not be found. Overall, we do not accept the hypothesis that international supply chains explain all by themselves the changes in trade-income elasticity.