Academic literature on the topic 'Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)'

AbstractToday, precipitation over tropical South America is largely controlled by the seasonal movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). During the summer, the ITCZ is shifted southward due to the warming of the continent. Paleoclimate data from southeastern Amazonia and the central Andes indicate that these two areas evolved similarly during the last 30,000 yr. However, between 12,400 and 8800 cal yr B.P., eastern Amazonia received substantial moisture whereas the Bolivian Altiplano was arid. This suggests that the ITCZ during summer was then farther north than it is today.

Although deep-water oil and gas exploration offshore eastern Trinidad is becoming prevalent, the use of ecostratigraphy around eastern Trinidad are limited mostly to neritic water depths. Changes in planktonic foraminiferal assemblages of Core BGT086, offshore eastern Trinidad, are used here to indicate biozonal events useful for deep-water (>1000 m water depth) exploration. Decreased proportional abundances of Globigerinella obesa and Globigerina bulloides mark the southward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Younger Dryas (YD). A decrease in species richness and Globigerinoides ruberwhite proportional abundance is consistent with rising temperature during the YD. During Biozone Z2, nutrient-preferring species (G. bulloides, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei) declined in proportional abundance, while G. ruberpink increased in proportional abundance, reflecting the arrival of the ITCZ in the area. Decreases in mean diversity (measured using the Shannon Function, H) and evenness (equitability index, E), and an increase in mean dominance (max pi) support the claim that the ITCZ arrived in the area after the YD. A sudden increase in Globorotalia menardii proportional abundance marked the start of Biozone Z1, at which time there was a change from a stressed community to a less stressed one. Boundaries of SHE abundance biozones coincided with noticeably enhanced assemblage changes, being consistent with the southward migration of the ITCZ and the onset of Biozone Z1. The mean value of the pairwise assemblage turnover index (ATIs) is here used as a proxy for what we term 'assemblage stability'. Comparisons of mean planktonic foraminiferal ATIs from Core BGT086 and six other nearby tropical piston cores (Cores 1, 2 and 3 off NW Tobago, and En20-2, En20-10 and En20-16 from the Leeward Islands, Lesser Antilles) showed no statistical difference in assemblage stabilities within similar planktonic foraminiferal biozones. Kruskal-Wallis tests determined a significant difference in median ATIs values when all seven cores' ATIs were used, but the difference was not significant when data above the YD boundary (i.e., Biozone Z) were used. The lowered nutrient influx from the Orinoco River due to the arrival of the ITCZ in the area after the YD would have triggered a stable environment for planktonic foraminiferal assemblages. This implies that caution must be used to ensure data from the same biozone is used when analyzing assemblage stabilities of planktonic foraminifera.

Abstract. We study daily surface air temperature (SAT) reanalysis in a grid over the Earth's surface to identify and quantify changes in SAT dynamics during the period 1979–2016. By analysing the Hilbert amplitude and frequency we identify the regions where relative variations are most pronounced (larger than ±50 % for the amplitude and ±100 % for the frequency). Amplitude variations are interpreted as due to changes in precipitation or ice melting, while frequency variations are interpreted as due to a northward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and to a widening of the rainfall band in the western Pacific Ocean. The ITCZ is the ascending branch of the Hadley cell, and thus by affecting the tropical atmospheric circulation, ITCZ migration has far-reaching climatic consequences. As the methodology proposed here can be applied to many other geophysical time series, our work will stimulate new research that will advance the understanding of climate change impacts.

Multiple proxies using variation in δ18O, δ13C, mineralogy, and petrography in a newly generated high-resolution record of Stalagmite DP1 from Dante Cave indicate a linkage between changes in hydroclimate in northeastern Namibia and changes in solar activity and changes in global temperatures. The record suggests that during solar minima and globally cooler conditions (ca. 1660–1710 and ca. 1790–1830), wetter periods (reflecting longer summer seasons) in northeastern Namibia were linked to advances of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Inter-Ocean Convergence Zone (IOCZ) southwestward. A slight southward push of the Angola–Benguela Front (ABF) during such intervals could also be expected, bringing more rainfall inland. On the other hand, drier and warmer periods in northeastern Namibia, inferred from the increasing δ18O trend in Stalagmite DP1 after AD 1715, coincide with globally warmer conditions, and thus a northeastward migration of the ITCZ, specifically with more warming of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). This finding agrees with reducing precipitation observed in the summer rainfall zone of southern Africa since ca. 1900. Therefore, predictions of warming in high-latitude regions of the NH in the next century should suggest that the presently semi-arid climate of northern Namibia may become even drier.

Abstract. Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4–27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger stadials.

Abstract In this paper, we have investigated the impact of radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interaction (RC3I) on structural changes and variability of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, where cloud processes are super-parameterized, i.e., explicitly resolved with 2-D cloud resolving models embedded in each coarse grid of the host Goddard Earth Observing System-Version 5 global climate model. Experiments have been conducted under prescribed sea surface temperature conditions for 10 years (2007–2016), with and without cloud radiation feedback in the atmosphere, respectively. Diagnostic analyses separately for January and July show that RC3I leads to an enhanced and expanded Hadley Circulation characterized by (1) a quasi-uniform warming and moistening of the tropical atmosphere and a sharpening of the ITCZ with enhanced deep convection, more intense precipitation and higher clouds, (2) extended drying of the tropical marginal convective zones, and extratropical mid- to lower troposphere, and (3) a cooling of the polar regions, with increased baroclinicity and midlatitude storm track activities. Computations based on the zonal mean thermodynamic energy balance equation show that the radiative warming and cooling are strongly balanced by local adiabatic processes associated with changes in large-scale vertical motions, as well as horizontal atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, enhanced short-wave absorption and longwave water vapor greenhouse effects by high clouds play key roles in providing strong positive feedback to the tropospheric warming. In the extratropics, increased atmospheric heat transport associated with changes in the Hadley circulation is balanced by strong longwave cooling above, and warming below due to increased high clouds. We also find a strong positive correlation between daily and pentad heavy rain in the ITCZ core, and expansion of the drier zones coupled to a contraction of the highly convective zones in the ITCZ, indicating a strong tendency RC3I-induced convective aggregation in tropical clouds i.e., wet-regions-get-wetter and contracted, and dry-areas-get-drier and expanded.

Abstract. The water soluble inorganic part of the sub-micrometer aerosol was measured from two research vessels over the Indian Ocean during the winter monsoon season (February and March) as part of the INDOEX project in 1998 and 1999. Additional measurements were made of gas phase SO2 from one of the vessels in 1999. All samples collected north of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ, were clearly affected by continental, anthropogenic sources. A sharp transition occurred across the ITCZ with concentrations of nss-SO42-, NH4+ and nss-K+ being lower by a factor of 7-15, >20 and >40, respectively, on the southern side of the ITCZ. The contribution from DMS to the sub-micrometer nss-SO42- was estimated to be up to 40% in clean air north of the ITCZ but less than 10% in polluted air originating from India. South of the ITCZ virtually all nss-SO42- was likely to be derived from oxidation of DMS. The concentration of SO2 decreased rapidly with distance from the Indian coast, the molar ratio SO2/nss-SO42- reaching values below 5% after 35 h travel time over the ocean. Surprisingly, MSA, which is derived from DMS, also showed higher concentrations in the sub-micrometer aerosol north of the ITCZ than south of it. This could be explained by the larger sub-micrometer surface area available north of the ITCZ for the condensation of MSA. South of the ITCZ a major part of the MSA was found on the super-micrometer particles. An analysis based on the air trajectories showed that systematic variation in the observed concentrations was associated with variations in the transport from source regions. For example, differences in time since air parcels left the Arabian or Indian coasts was shown to be an important factor for explaining the substantial differences in absolute concentrations.

Abstract. The role of global vegetation on the large-scale tropical circulation is examined in the version 3 Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3). Alternative representations of global vegetation cover from observations and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) were used as the land-cover component for a number of HadCM3 experiments under a nominal present day climate state, and compared to the simulations using the standard land cover map of HadCM3. The alternative vegetation covers result in a large scale cooling of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics relative to the HadCM3 standard, resulting in a southward shift in the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A significant reduction in Indian monsoon precipitation is also found, which is related to a weakening of the South Asian monsoon circulation, broadly consistent with documented mechanisms relating to temperature and snow perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics in winter and spring, delaying the onset of the monsoon. The role of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics on tropical climate is demonstrated, with an additional representation of vegetation cover based on DGVM simulated changes in Northern Hemisphere vegetation from the end of the 21st Century. This experiment shows that through similar processes the simulated extra-tropical vegetation changes in the future contribute to a strengthening of the South Asian monsoon in this model. These findings provide renewed motivation to give careful consideration to the role of global scale vegetation feedbacks when looking at climate change, and its impact on the tropical circulation and South Asian monsoon in the latest generation of Earth System models.

Abstract:In the tropical Indian Ocean, the Maldive Islands lack surface freshwater, so are unsuitable for dragonfly reproduction. Nevertheless, millions of dragonflies (Insecta, Odonata; mostly globe skimmer, Pantala flavescens) appear suddenly every year starting in October. Arrival dates in the Maldives and India demonstrate that the dragonflies travel from southern India, a distance of some 500–1000 km. Dates of arrival and occurrence coincide with the southward passage of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Circumstantial evidence suggests that the dragonflies fly with north-easterly tail winds, within and behind the ITCZ, at altitudes over 1000 m. It is proposed that this massive movement of dragonflies is part of an annual migration across the western Indian Ocean from India to East Africa. Arrival dates in the Seychelles support this hypothesis. Dragonflies also appear (in smaller numbers) in the Maldives in May, with the onset of the southwest monsoon, suggesting a possible return migration from Africa. These proposed migrations of dragonflies, regularly crossing 3500 km or more of open ocean, were previously unknown. It is known that these dragonflies exploit ephemeral rain pools for reproduction; the monsoons and ITCZ bring not only alternating, seasonal rains to India and Africa, but also appropriate winds for dragonflies to follow those rains. Several bird species migrate from India across the western Indian Ocean to wintering grounds in Africa. They do so at the same time as the dragonflies, presumably taking advantage of the same seasonal tail winds. Many of these birds also eat dragonflies; the possible significance of this was not previously appreciated.

Ce travail avait pour but de reconstituer l'évolution de la température et du δ¹⁸O des eaux de surface et des eaux de la thermocline dans la Warmpool indo-pacifique (IPWP) en combinant la thermométrie Mg / Ca et la mesure des isotopes stables de l'oxygène sur des foraminifères planctoniques de surface et de sub-surface prélevés dans des carottes de sédiments situées dans l'océan Indien tropical oriental. Ce travail a permis de ré-évaluer les effets des différentes méthodes de nettoyage et de la dissolution in situ sur la thermométrie Mg/Ca des foraminifères planctoniques, mettant en évidence la nécessité de corrections différentes suivant les espèces. L’évolution de l’IPWP au cours des 270 000 dernières années a été reconstituée. Les résultats indiquent que le δ¹⁸O des eaux de surface reflètent principalement l'advection latérale plutôt que l'historique des précipitations régionales, et suggèrent que l'hydrologie de surface IPWP est contrôlée par la migration latitudinale de la zone de convergence intertropicale aux échelles de temps orbitales mais aussi en réponse aux événements climatiques abrupts de l'hémisphère nord (eg. événements de Heinrich). Les variations de salinité de surface sont étroitement corrélées aux changements d’export vers l’Atlantique au niveau du Courant des Aiguilles (Sud de l’Afrique). Puis, les changements dans le transport des eaux de la thermocline issues de l’ITF vers l'océan Indien ont été étudiés. Les résultats montrent que le transport était plus faible pendant les glaciations (ie. MIS 6 et 4-2) que pendant les périodes interglaciaires (ie. MIS 7, MIS 5 et Holocène) et exerçaient une influence significative sur les changements de la température de la thermocline dans l'Océan Indien
This work aimed at reconstructing the late Quaternary evolution of surface and thermocline temperature and ocean surface water δ¹⁸O in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool by combining Mg/Ca-thermometry and stable oxygen isotope analyses on surface and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifers retrieved from sediment cores in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. This study allowed to re-evaluate the effects of different cleaning methods and in-situ dissolution on the Mg-thermometry of planktonic foraminifers, evidencing the need for species-dependent corrections. Then, the IPWP evolution over the last 270,000 years has been explored. Results indicate that surface water δ¹⁸O chiefly reflects lateral advection rather than local precipitation history, and suggest that surface IPWP hydrology is controlled by the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone at orbital timescale as well as during abrupt northern hemisphere climatic events (i.e. Heinrich events). Ocean surface salinity in the IPWP and Agulhas leakage region varied synchronously, implying their teleconnection through oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Moreover, changes in the transport of thermocline water to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) have been reconstructed. Results show that thermocline water transport was weaker during glacials (i.e. MIS 6 and 4-2) than during interglacials (MIS 7, MIS 5 and Holocene), and exerted significant influence on Indian Ocean TWT change

This study has been performed as a pilot study for a project regarding the meridional migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its relationship with lightning activity in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). Objectives of this study were to analyze and improve lightning data to be used for such a study and to decide on a method and proper time scale of data analysis and ITCZ index development for this study. Exploratory data analysis has been practiced with World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data and ITCZ index data. Results suggest that the most beneficial time-scale to be used for the above study is 15 days and that ITCZ estimations can be obtained via the use of precipitation index and cloud top temperature. Lightning data originated from atmospheric systems not associated with the ITCZ has been analyzed. This report proposes that Uppsala University should become part of the World Wide Lightning Location Network, enabling further work regarding this and similar projects.

The location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone plays an important role in the climatology of tropical regions. Yet, despite its importance, the basic physics that determine the location of the ITCZ are not fully understood. Observational analyses show that, where the cross-equatorial pressure gradient is strong, the maximum convection is not necessarily associated with the highest sea surface temperature,or correspondingly, the lowest sea level pressure. Tomas and Webster (1997) argue that if a strong enough cross-equatorial pressure gradient exists and the system is inertialy unstable, secondary ameliorating circulations will drive strong off-equatorial convection in regions where ITCZ location is determined by low tropospheric dynamics. The observational record is re-examined to test the inertial instability hypothesis using the new ECMWF reanalysis data set. Composite analyses are performed to study the structure of the summer meridional circulation for the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean. In agreement with Tomas and Webster theory, we find that the magnitude of the cross-equatorial pressure difference appears to determine the intensity of convection with low values of outgoing longwave radiation always to the north of the zero absolute vorticity line, and the absolute vorticity advection equatorward of the this line. Also the observed oscillation period of the disturbance for the studied regions coincides with theoretical oscillation period of the inertial flow.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.
Committee Chair: Peter J. Webster; Committee Member: Robert X. Black; Committee Member: John A. Knox; Committee Member: Judith A. Curry; Committee Member: Yi Deng.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.

Nas últimas décadas, particularmente desde a década de 1970, testemunhou-se um rápido recuo das geleiras em várias partes dos Andes tropicais. Uma tendência de aquecimento foi observada na região durante o mesmo período, com um hiato recente desde no início de 2010. No entanto, este hiato pode não ser o principal fator a influenciar as observações de aquecimento e recuo das geleiras em altitudes elevadas nos Andes tropicais. Com o surgimento de imagens de alta resolução espacial e espectral, e de modelos digitais de elevação (MDE) de alta resolução, agora é possível compreender as mudanças multitemporais das geleiras, o que era difícil de realizar utilizando as técnicas tradicionais e os dados de baixa resolução. Neste trabalho foram calculadas as variações da linha de neve das geleiras selecionadas ao longo dos Andes tropicais desde o início de 1980. A linha de neve máxima observada durante a estação seca (inverno austral) nos trópicos pode ser considerada como equivalente à linha de equilíbrio que separa a zona de acumulação da zona de ablação. A fim de reduzir o erro na estimativa da linha de neve foram consideradas somente as geleiras com declividades menores que 20o. Dependendo da região estudada e da presença de cobertura de nuvens, foram selecionadas imagens de várias fontes. As imagens da série Landsat (MSS, TM, ETM+ e OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER e IRS LISS III foram usadas junto com MDE do ASTER GDEM-v2. Três bandas espectrais (TM5 - infravermelho médio, TM4- infravermelho próximo e TM2 - verde) foram utilizadas para calcular a linha de neve durante a estação seca, aplicando limiares adequados para TM4 e TM2. Os conjuntos de dados meteorológicos de várias fontes também foram analisados para observar as mudanças na precipitação, na temperatura e na umidade que influenciam os parâmetros glaciológicos como: o balanço de massa e a linha de equilíbrio. Geleiras representativas nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos foram consideradas separadamente dentro de um novo quadro, que foi baseado na precipitação, umidade e condições de temperatura ao longo da América do Sul. Neste âmbito, os Andes tropicais são classificados em trópicos internos, trópicos externos úmidos do norte, trópicos externos úmidos do sul e os trópicos externos secos. O Vulcão Cotopaxi no Equador (trópicos internos), o Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri que é uma geleira na Cordilheira Branca no Peru (trópicos externos úmidos do norte), o Nevado Cololo na Cordilheira Apolobamba na Bolívia (trópicos externos úmidos do sul), o Nevado Coropuna na Cordilheira Ampato no Peru e o Nevado Sajama na Cordilheira Ocidental da Bolívia (trópicos externos secos) são as geleiras representativas de cada grupo consideradas neste estudo. As geleiras tropicais nos trópicos internos, especialmente as situadas perto da Zona de Convergência Intertropicais (ZCIT), são mais vulneráveis a aumentos na temperatura e menos sensíveis a variações na precipitação. Em contraste, as geleiras nos trópicos externos respondem à variabilidade de precipitação muito rapidamente em comparação com a variação de temperatura, particularmente quando se deslocam para as regiões subtropicais. A dependência do balanço de massa sobre as características de sublimação também aumenta a partir dos trópicos internos para os trópicos externos. As condições de aquecimento, com maior umidade, tendem a aumentar a perda de massa por causa do derretimento em vez da sublimação. A elevação da umidade nos trópicos externos pode alterar as geleiras dominadas pela sublimação (nos trópicos externos e subtrópicos) e para as geleiras dominadas por derretimento. Observa-se que as geleiras próximas da ZCIT (trópicos internos e trópicosexternos úmidos do sul) estão recuando mais rapidamente como uma resposta ao aquecimento global, enquanto que as geleiras nos trópicos externos úmidos do norte e trópicos externos secos mostraram recuo relativamente mais lento. Possivelmente isso pode ser devido à ocorrência de fases frias do El Niño - Oscilação Sul (ENOS) conjuntamente com a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP). As anomalias observadas nas variáveis meteorológicas seguem os padrões de ODP e as variações anuais de linha de neve seguem eventos de El Niño particularmente na fase ODP quente. No entanto, uma forte correlação entre as variações da linha de neve e dos fenômenos ENOS (e ODP) não está estabelecida. As geleiras do Equador mostram menos retração em resposta à tendência de aquecimento se comparadas às observações feitas por outros pesquisadores na Colômbia e na Venezuela, provavelmente devido à grande altitude das geleiras equatorianas. Em poucas palavras, as geleiras menores e em baixas altitudes nos trópicos internos e trópicos externos úmidos do sul estão desaparecendo mais rapidamente do que outras geleiras nos Andes tropicais. Também se observou neste estudo a existência de uma propriedade direcional no recuo das geleiras, o que não se observou em quaisquer outros estudos recentes. As geleiras nas cordilheiras leste do Peru e da Bolívia, que alimentam muitos rios nos lados leste das cordilheiras orientais, estão recuando do que aquelas geleiras situadas nas encostas ocidentais dos Andes tropicais.
Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in many parts of the tropical Andes. A warming trend is observed in this region during the same period, with a recent hiatus since the early 2010s. However, this hiatus is observed to have not influenced the retreat of high elevation glaciers in the tropical Andes. Due to the emergence of high spatial and spectral resolution images and high quality digital elevation models (DEM), it is now possible to understand the multi-temporal glacier changes compared with the techniques that existed a few decades before. We calculated the snowline variations of selected glaciers along the tropical Andes since the early 1980s. The maximum snowline observed during the dry season (austral winter) in the tropics can be considered as nearly equivalent to the equilibrium line that separates the accumulation zone from the ablation zone. In order to reduce the error in the estimated snowline, glaciers with slopes < 20o only were considered in this research. Depending on the study region and the presence of cloud cover, images from multiple sources were selected. Landsat series (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI), EO1 OLI, ASTER, and IRS LISS III images were used along with digital elevation models (DEM) from ASTER GDEM-v2. Three wavebands (TM5 - Middle Infrared, TM4 - Near Infrared, and TM2 - Green) were used to calculate the dry season snowline, after applying suitable threshold values to TM4 and TM2. Meteorological datasets from multiple sources were also analysed to observe the changes in precipitation, temperature, and humidity that influence key glaciological parameters such as the mass balance and the equilibrium line. Representative glaciers in the inner and the outer tropical Andes were considered separately within a new framework, which is based on the precipitation, humidity, and temperature conditions along the South America. In this framework, tropical Andes are classified in to inner tropics, northern wet outer tropics, southern wet outer tropics, and dry outer tropics. Cotopaxi ice-covered volcano, Ecuador (inner tropics), Nevado Caullaraju-Pastoruri Glacier, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (northern wet outer tropics), Nevado Cololo, Cordillera Apolobamba, Bolivia (southern wet outer tropics), and Nevado Coropuna, Cordillera Ampato Peru and Nevado Sajama, Cordillera Occidental, Bolivia (dry outer tropics) are the representative glaciers in each group considered in this study. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those situated near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increases in temperature and these glaciers are less sensitive to variations in precipitation. In contrast, outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. Mass balance dependency on sublimation characteristics also increases from the inner tropics to the outer tropics. Warming conditions with higher humidity tends to enhance mass loss due to melting rather than sublimation. Increased humidity observed in the outer tropics may change the sublimation dominated glaciers in the outer tropics and subtropics to melting dominated ones in the future. It is observed that the glaciers above and near the January ITCZ (inner tropics and southern wet outer tropics) are retreating faster as a response to global warming, whereas the glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show relatively slower retreat. This can be possibly due to the occurrence of cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) together. The observed anomalies in the meteorological variables slightly follow PDO patterns and the variations in annual snowlines follows El Niño events, particularly when in phase with warm PDO. However, a strong correlation between snowline variations and ENSO (and PDO) is not established. Mountain glaciers in Ecuador show less retreat in response to the warming trend compared with observations done by other researchers in Colombia and Venezuela, probably due to very high altitude of the Ecuadorean glaciers. In a nutshell, smaller glaciers at lower altitudes in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics are disappearing faster than other glaciers in the tropical Andes. Another observation made in this study is the directional property of glacier retreat, which was not covered in any other recent studies. Those glaciers on the eastern cordilleras of Peru and Bolivia, which feed many rivers on the eastern sides of the eastern cordilleras, are retreating faster than those glaciers situated on the western sides.

The east-west oriented cloud bands in the tropics are called the Inter-tropical Con-vergence Zones (ITCZ). Till recently, the ITCZ has been assumed to have a simple vertical structure with convergence near the surface boundary layer and divergence near the tropopause. Recent work has shown that the ITCZ can have a complex ver-tical structure with multi-level ows. This complex structure has a profound impact on the mass, momentum and energy budget in the ITCZ. This thesis addresses the factors that govern the shallow meridional circulation that occurs in the ITCZ and the mechanisms that govern the abrupt poleward transition and the gradual poleward migration . The shallow meridional circulation forms when the boundary layer ow that con-verges in the ITCZ, rises above the boundary layer and diverges in the lower tropo-sphere. The ow above the boundary layer is in the direction opposite to the direction of the ow within the boundary layer. Some authors have argued that this is caused by the reversal of pressure gradients just above the boundary layer in response to strong sea surface temperature gradients. This hypothesis neglects the eect of plan-etary rotation on the ow and was found to be insucient to explain the formation of shallow meridional circulation. In the east Pacic ocean, the shallow circulation forms only to the south of the ITCZ when the ITCZ forms away from the equator, while it is absent when the ITCZ forms close to the equator. The aqua-planet simulations of the equatorial and the o-equatorial ITCZ were conducted using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0). The model used the Eulerian dynamical core with T42 horizontal resolution and 26 levels in vertical. Each simulation was run for 3 years and analysis of last six months was presented. The simulations reproduced the contrast in the vertical structure of the equatorial and o-equatorial ITCZ. The shallow circulation was simulated with-out the reversal of pressure gradients and the SST gradients were weakest when the shallow circulation was simulated. We have proposed a new mechanism for the exis-tence of shallow meridional circulation in the ITCZ. We have argued that, in Earth's atmosphere, the mean horizontal ow generally occurs in the direction perpendicular to the direction of applied pressure gradient due to the action of Coriolis force. If the local rotational eects of the ow (relative vorticity) cancels the action of the Coriolis force, then a ow along the pressure gradient is possible. We demonstrated that this condition was satised only to the south of the ITCZ when it forms away from the equator. The ITCZ is characterized by the maximum mass convergence in the boundary layer. The mass convergence is mainly caused by the deceleration of poleward ow in the boundary layer. When the ITCZ forms close to the equator, the ow in the boundary layer is a resultant of vector addition of three forces, a pressure gradient force in the north-south direction (i.e., the ow towards low pressure), a Coriolis force which acts in the east-west direction( perpendicular to the direction of the ow), and surface friction which opposes the resultant ow. When the ITCZ forms away from the equator a three way balance does not capture the dynamics of ow. As the poleward ow is accelerated towards low pressure, it has to advect a considerable amount of zonal momentum with it which acts to retard the poleward ow. This eect of advection of zonal momentum has to be included in the force balance to obtain an accurate estimate of the ow and associated convergence. The ITCZ acts like a heat engine. The energy is gained near the surface, some energy is transported towards pole while some is utilized in driving the meridional circulation. The rest is rejected near the tropopause. The transport within the troposphere occurs through the vertical or horizontal advection of the energy due to vertical and horizontal motions respectively. Our analysis of the ITCZ suggests that; a large amount of transport occurs through horizontal motions that was neglected in the previous studies. The detailed analysis suggests that the latent energy in the form of mass of water vapor is exported out of the ITCZ at dierent levels in association with the multilevel ows. The equatorial and the o-equatorial ITCZ are dierent because, evaporation is larger in the o-equatorial ITCZ when compared to the equatorial ITCZ. The ITCZ shows a strong sub-seasonal variability in its location in the Indian Ocean and the west Pacic Ocean during boreal summer. There are two favorable locations, one near the equator and another away from the equator, for formation of the ITCZ. The equatorial ITCZ either propagates abruptly or gradually to the o-equatorial location. A detailed analysis of moisture and momentum budget of the simulated abrupt and gradual propagations enabled us to separate the role of thermo-dynamic and dynamic processes. We found that, if the equatorial ITCZ would propa-gate abruptly or gradually to the o-equatorial location is decided by the availability of the water vapor in the boundary layer between the two locations of the ITCZ, i.e., by the thermodynamic processes. But, such a transition to the o-equatorial location is allowed only when the constraints imposed by the re-adjustment in the circulation are satised. In simple terms, these constraints emerge due to two processes. 1. The Earth (lower boundary of the atmosphere) spins at maximum eective radius near the equator. As a result, the atmosphere gains maximum angular momentum near the equator (`zonal momentum' in Cartesian co-ordinates) . The ITCZ is one of the primary avenues to transport the zonal momentum from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere. When the favorable location of ITCZ is near the equator, the location of ITCZ and the location where atmosphere gains maximum zonal momentum are coincident. The ITCZ and associated meridional circulation transports the zonal momentum upwards which is then transported polewards. As the favorable location of ITCZ moves away from the equator, the two locations are die rent. As a result, the atmospheric ow has to re-adjust so that the zonal momentum is transported from the equator to the favorable location of the ITCZ which then transports it upwards and polewards. In summary, this thesis proposes a new mechanism for the generation of shallow meridional circulation, the abrupt transition and the gradual propagations of the ITCZ.

Monsoons and Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZ) exhibit variability at various temporal and spatial scales. The temporal scale of variability encompasses scales from the intraseasonal through interannual to interdecadal time scales. Anthropogenic climate change can also have an impact on ITCZ and monsoons. Thus it is necessary to assess the ability of coupled ocean atmospheric models (commonly known as AOGCM) to simulate these aspects of variability of tropical climate. This has been studied with simulations from 20 AOGCMs and their AGCM from IPCCAR4 archive. In addition, we have used our own 100 year simulation with CCSM2 and also simulations with its AGCM viz. CAM2. Our analysis shows that most model have significant bias in tropical rainfall and SST. Most models underestimate SST except over a few regions such as the Eastern boundaries of Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The AGCMs which are forced with observed SSTs have much higher annual mean rainfall as compared to AOGCMs. There is a strong correlation between error in shortwave reflectance at the top of the atmosphere and error in SST. The ability of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and their atmosphere-alone counterparts to simulate the seasonal cycle of rainfall over major monsoon regions and also over oceanic ITCZ. It is found that over the Indian monsoon region, most AGCMs overestimate the seasonal cycle while AOGCMs have a more realistic seasonal cycle. This inspite of the fact that most AOGCMs underestimate the SST over the Indian region. It is shown that this is related to errors in precipitable water-rainfall relationship in most models i.e. for a given amount of precipitable water, most models overestimate the rainfall. Thus lower SST reduces the precipitable water and hence the amount of rainfall is reduced. Therefore, the mutual cancellation of errors leads to a more realistic seasonal cycle in AOGCMs. The seasonal cycle over Africa was analysed with the help of a diagnostic model. Over Southern Africa, most models show simulate a less stable atmosphere and hence the rainfall is overestimated. A technique based on Continous Wavelet Transform in Space and Time (CWTST) has been modified to seperate northward and southward propagating modes of BSISO over the Indian and West Pacific regions. It was seen that over the Indian region, northward propagating modes were more prominent in comparison to southward modes. It was also found that the predominant spatial scale (of about 30o) did not show much interannual variability but the associated temporal scale showed significant variation. Both AOGCMs and AGCMs simulations were analysed to investigate the impact of coupling on intraseasonal activity. Most AOGCMs were able to simulate the predominant spatial scale but were unable to simulate the associated temporal scale correctly. These problems persisted with AGCMs also. It was also found that for AGCMs, there were some variations between ensemble members of the AGCMs. Comparing BSISO in increased GHG scenarios with present day simulations we found that in general, power in the spectrum increases. This could be related to higher mean precipitation that has been simulated by most AOGCMs when GHG are increased. The interannual variability in the tropics with special reference to Tropical Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and ENSO has been studied. The changes in these modes of variability due to anthropogenic climate change has also been assessed. We found that in most models over the Nino3.4 region, the mode of variation shifts from a near-four period (in pre-industrial simulations) to that of TBO mode in increased GHG (green house gas) scenario. This suggests that with increasing GHGs, ENSO quasi-periodicity might shift to about two years. It is also interesting to note that for observed rainfall, OLR and 850 hPa winds, the TBO mode has higher variance over the Eastern Indian Ocean, indicating that the TBO mode might be related to Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and EQUINOO (Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation).

Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modelling studies have shown that Arctic geoengineering can minimize Arctic warming but will shift the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, unless offset by comparable geoengineering in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels leads to a warming of ~ 6 K in the Arctic region and precipitation in the monsoon regions increases by up to ~15 %. In our Arctic geoengineering simulation which illustrates a plausible latitudinal distribution of the reduction in sunlight, an addition of sulfate aerosols (11 Mt) in the Arctic stratosphere nearly offsets the Arctic warming due to CO2 doubling but this shifts the ITCZ southward by ~1.5⁰ relative to the pre-industrial climate. The combined effect from this shift and the residual CO2-induced climate change in the tropics is a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere /Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both the Arctic (10 Mt) and Antarctic (8 Mt) nearly offsets the ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7 %) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2 % as the residual CO2-induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further, global geoengineering nearly offsets the Arctic warming. Based on our results we infer that Arctic geoengineering leads to ITCZ shift and leaves residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics resulting in substantial precipitation changes in the monsoon regions.

As The Earth Warmed after the last glacial maximum, temperatures fluctuated. About 9700 B.C.E., temperatures rose again suddenly and began to stabilize, marking the beginning of a new geological epoch, the Holocene. The landscape continued to change, but not so fast that a single generation of humans would have noticed. Ice- sheets and tundra were receding in Eurasia, and over time human groups, both hunter- gatherers and then early farmer- pastoralist communities, adjusted their ways of living to warmer conditions and different rainfall patterns. Small- scale farming and herding emerged on all nonpolar con­tinents during the period 8500 to 6000 B.C.E., predominantly in the northern hemisphere, while human numbers were creeping up. These great changes in environmental conditions and subsequent cultural practices had a profound influence on the foundations of human health and survival: food sufficiency and quality, water sup­plies, contacts with infectious agents, modes of settlement, and social relations. A new era in human ecology was looming. Farming increased food production, but the switch to dependency on a few staples decreased diversity of diets and created an annual agricul­tural regime more susceptible to climate shifts. Close contact with animals, standing water in irrigated environments, and denser set­tlements provided opportunities for microbes, pathogens, viruses, and parasites to cross species barriers and infect and spread among human populations. During the Early Holocene, from about 9700 B.C.E. to 6000 B.C.E., the earth was subjected to the competing stresses of high solar influ­ence and still massive melting ice- sheets. From around 6000 B.C.E., the majority of ice- sheet melting had abated, allowing the stabiliza­tion of the Earth’s climate into what can be called the Mid- Holocene Climatic Optimum (approx. 6000 to 3000 B.C.E.). This was a change in climate that spanned 3,000 to 4,000 years. Warming was most evi­dent in the northern hemisphere, influenced by the peaking of solar radiation at higher northern latitudes as the 23,000- year Milankovitch “wobble” cycle maximized northern sun exposure for several millen­nia. The Milankovitch cycle also drew the rain- bearing Inter- Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) further north.

This chapter examines rainfall and associated phenomena and their possible relationship to solar activity. Rainfall can be measured directly using rain gauges or estimated by monitoring lake levels and river flows. Satellite and radar rainfall measurements have become increasingly important. Historical documentation on drought, or the absence of rain, also reveals empirical relationships. Both rainfall and evaporation show marked variations with latitude and geography. First, we examine these rainfall-associated variations and estimate how they might change with solar activity. Second, we cover empirical studies of rainfall, lake levels, river flows, and droughts. The sun bathes the Earth’s equator with enormous amounts of surface energy. Much of this absorbed radiant energy evaporates water, causes atmospheric convection, and is later released to space as thermal radiation. Steady-state energy escapes, so tropical temperatures do not rise without limit. Some absorbed energy is transported poleward by winds from the point of absorption. Intense convection near the equator leads to a large updraft known as the intratropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a band of lofty, high-precipitation clouds producing the largest rainfall of any region on Earth. Solar energy in the ITCZ is carried to high elevations where it diverges and moves poleward. It is unable to travel all the way to the poles, so instead creates a large atmospheric circulation cell known as the Hadley cell. The Hadley cell has an upward motion near the equator and downward motions at about 30° north and south latitude. These downflow regions produce clear air with few clouds and create areas of minimum rainfall called deserts. These regions of upflow and downflow are connected by poleward flows in the upper atmosphere and equatorward flows in the lower atmosphere, forming a complete circulation pattern. Outside the Hadley cell are temperate and polar regions. The temperate regions have more rainfall than the deserts, while the cold polar regions have even less precipitation. Figure 6.1 shows the three regions with relative maximum rainfall. The mean evaporation has a much simpler latitudinal variation that tends to follow the surface temperature. Figure 6.1 shows this variation as a parabolicshaped dotted line.

With the emphasis of the Oxford History of the Ancient Near East firmly placed on the political, social, and cultural histories of the states and communities shaping Egypt and Western Asia (including the Levant, Anatolia, Mesopotamia, and Iran), this introduction to the five-volume series seeks to place the region in its environmental context. It discusses the lay of the land between the North African coast and the Hindu Kush, including the role of tectonics and geomorphology. It also considers some key issues regarding climatic conditions, focusing in particular on the significance of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and the potential impact of megadroughts and pandemics.

Agriculture is the mainstay of Kenya’s economic development and accounts for about 30% of the country’s gross domestic product, 60% of export earnings, and 70% of the labor force. This sector is the largest source of employment (Government of Kenya, 1995). More than 85% of the population survives in one way or the other on agricultural activities (crops and livestock). Agriculture in Kenya is mainly rain-fed, with little irrigation. About 46% of the rural population live below the poverty line, with 70% of them below food poverty line. Like many parts of the tropics, the majority of agricultural activities in Kenya are rain dependent. Small-scale farmers, pastoralists, and wildlife are most often affected by drought, with crops withering and livestock as well as wildlife dying. Drought of more than one season overwhelms the social fabric, as crops, livestock, wild animals, and humans die. Such droughts affect pastoral communities (e.g., the Masai in Kenya and Tanzania) by killing livestock and game animals, forcing these communities to invade the nearby towns and cities to find remnants of patches of grass still left there or grass growing at the roadsides. The death of game animals affects ecotourism. Interannual climate variability that often leads to the recurrence of climate extremes such as droughts has far-reaching impacts on agricultural production. Figure 18.1 shows below-normal rainfall during different years that are often associated with droughts in Kenya. These rainfall deficits are caused by the anomalies in the circulation patterns that can extend from local or regional to very large scales. Some patterns that are responsible for spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in Kenya include the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), subtropical anticyclones, monsoonal wind systems, tropical cyclones, easterly/westerly wave perturbations, subtropical jet streams, East African low-level jet stream, extratropical weather systems, teleconnection with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and quasi-biennial oscillation (Ogallo, 1988, 1991, 1994). In addition, complex physical features such as large inland lakes, mountains, and complex orographic patterns (e.g., the Great Rift Valley) influence rainfall patterns. Lake Victoria in western Kenya is also one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world and has its own strong circulation patterns in space and time.

The Story Now Moves beyond the mid- Holocene. By around 4000 B.C.E., viable agrarian settlements had appeared in many parts of the world. Not only could larger populations be supported, but surplus food produced by toiling farmers enabled the differentiation of labour and social status. Settlements expanded, made trading connections, and formed larger collective polities. Hierarchical authority and power began to replace horizontal flows of local information and decision- making. The vagaries of climate, however, lurked on the horizon. Agrarian societies, with their increasing dependence on harvest staples, were painting themselves into a corner. Also, as populations grew and settle­ments coalesced, mutant strains of animal- hosted microbes that made a successful crossing from livestock or urban pests to humans took ad­vantage of larger, intermingling host populations. A few of these adven­turers, such as the measles virus, not only initiated new epidemics but continued circulating, between outbreaks, as endemic “crowd diseases.” Measles, a microbial success story, is still with us today. The advent of property, food stores, and occupied land in nearby populations stimulated both war and conquest, each having diverse, debilitating, and often bloody consequences for health and survival. Climatic conditions in Sumer, sitting at the meteorological crossroads of the Middle East, began changing about 3600 B.C.E., one- third of the way into the fourth millennium B.C.E. . There was a general cooling and drying in the northern hemisphere as the first phase of the Holocene Climatic Optimum waned and as the Icelandic Low and Siberian (Asiatic) High circulations intensified, funnelling colder air southwards. Rainfall declined in southern Mesopotamia, compounded by a southerly drift of the rain- bearing Inter- Tropical Convergence Zone and the regional monsoon. Further west, the Sahara was changing from green to brown, and Egyptian agriculture was faltering. As rainfall declined and arrived later in the year, farming became more difficult; farmers now needed to make a year- round effort, with double- cropping and shorter fallow periods. By extending their irrigation systems, the Sumerians compounded an­other problem: several centuries of overirrigation and deforestation had already begun to turn the soil saline.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">In the last decades there have been many temporary engine failures, engine-related events and erroneous airspeed indication measurements that occurred by a phenomenon known as Ice Crystal Icing (ICI). This type of icing mainly occurs in high altitudes close to tropical convection in areas with a high concentration of ice crystals. Direct measurements or in-situ pilot observations of ICI that could be used as a warning to other air-traffic are rare to nearly non-existent. To detect those dangerous high Ice Water Content (IWC) areas with already existing airborne measurement instruments, Lufthansa analyzed observed Total Air Temperature (TAT) anomalies and used a self-developed search algorithm, depicting those TAT anomalies that are related to ice crystal icing events.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">To optimize the flight route for dispatchers several hours before the flight, e.g. for long distance flights through the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), reliable forecasts to identify hazardous high IWC regions are necessary. For this purpose, detected TAT anomalies were used as training data to find correlations in between these and the DWD’s ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) model output. The combination of obtained frequency distributions of model cloud ice water content, base and top of moist convection and specific humidity by a fuzzy logic leads to a model-based prototype to forecast areas with high IWC in a simple manner. To show the high potential of the prototype’s procedure, an ICI event as observed during the CIRRUS-HL (Cirrus in High Latitudes) flight campaign in 2021 serves as good validation case. Here we show first promising, as it is still under development.</div></div>