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Chui, Hiu-fai Sam. "Evaluation of measures taken by financial institutes under the interest rate swing caused by the currency attack /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B19882117.
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Kladívko, Kamil. "Interest Rate Modeling." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2005. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-96400.
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I study, develop and implement selected interest rate models. I begin with a simple categorization of interest rate models and with an explanation why interest rate models are useful. I explain and discuss the notion of arbitrage. I use Oldrich Vasicek's seminal model (Vasicek; 1977) to develop the idea of no-arbitrage term structure modeling. I introduce both the partial di erential equation and the risk-neutral approach to zero-coupon bond pricing. I briefly comment on affine term structure models, a general equilibrium term structure model, and HJM framework. I present the Czech Treasury yield curve estimates at a daily frequency from 1999 to the present. I use the parsimonious Nelson-Siegel model (Nelson and Siegel; 1987), for which I suggest a parameter restriction that avoids abrupt changes in parameter estimates and thus allows for the economic interpretation of the model to hold. The Nelson-Siegel model is shown to fit the Czech bond price data well without being over-parameterized. Thus, the model provides an accurate and consistent picture of the Czech Treasury yield curve evolution. The estimated parameters can be used to calculate spot rates and hence par rates, forward rates or discount function for practically any maturity. To my knowledge, consistent time series of spot rates are not available for the Czech economy. I introduce two estimation techniques of the short-rate process. I begin with the maximum likelihood estimator of a square root diff usion. A square root di usion serves as the short rate process in the famous CIR model (Cox, Ingersoll and Ross; 1985b). I develop and analyze two Matlab implementations of the estimation routine and test them on a three-month PRIBOR time series. A square root diff usion is a restricted version of, so called, CKLS di ffusion (Chan, Karolyi, Longsta and Sanders; 1992). I use the CKLS short-rate process to introduce the General Method of Moments as the second estimation technique. I discuss the numerical implementation of this method. I show the importance of the estimator of the GMM weighting matrix and question the famous empirical result about the volatility speci cation of the short-rate process. Finally, I develop a novel yield curve model, which is based on principal component analysis and nonlinear stochastic di erential equations. The model, which is not a no-arbitrage model, can be used in areas, where quantification of interest rate dynamics is needed. Examples, of such areas, are interest rate risk management, or the pro tability and risk evaluation of interest rate contingent claims, or di erent investment strategies. The model is validated by Monte Carlo simulations.
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Jackson, Alexander. "Interest rate and credit risk modelling." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.400043.
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Zagonov, Maxim. "Financial intermediation and interest rate risk." Thesis, City University London, 2011. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1189/.
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This thesis analyses the link between interest rate risk faced by financial intermediaries in the G-10 countries, their balance sheet composition and national bank regulation. The regulatory authorities both in the US and in Europe increasingly emphasise the issue of bank interest rate exposure. The importance of this topic is also reasserted by recent developments in the monetary environment. The thesis offers three major contributions to the area. First, it empirically investigates the interest rate risk exposure of financial intermediaries across a large international data sample over the 1997 to 2009 time period. The results verify the importance of interest rate exposure for the majority of analysed institutions, with statistical inferences being robust to the choice of interest rate proxy, time period, and the adopted econometric methodology. Second, this research examines the underlying determinants of bank interest rate risk. Both company and market specific information is considered in the analysis. The findings suggest that national regulatory and supervisory characteristics, and notably international diversity among these provisions, are as important as firm-level accounting variables in explaining the interest rate exposures of individual banks. Finally, this work empirically addresses the impact of securitization on bank interest rate risk. In particular, the research questions whether securitization is conducive to the optimal hedging of bank interest rate risk, or is merely a funding source enabling these companies to pursue more profitable but riskier projects. The reported results imply that banks resorting to asset securitization do not, on average, achieve an unambiguous reduction in their exposure to the term structure developments.
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Iqbal, Adam Saeed. "Dynamic interest rate and credit risk models." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/6851.
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This thesis studies the pricing of Treasury bonds, the pricing of corporate bonds and the modelling of portfolios of defaultable debt. By drawing on the related literature, Chapter 1 provides economic background and motivation for the study of each of these topics. Chapter 2 studies the use of Gaussian affine dynamic term structure models (GDTSMs) for forming forecasts of Treasury yields and conditional decompositions of the yield curve into expectation and risk premium components. Specifically, it proposes market prices of risk that can generate bond price time series that are consistent with the important empirical result of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005), that a linear combination of forward rates can forecast excess returns to bonds. Since the GDTSM here falls into the essentially affine class (Duffee (2002)), it is analytically tractable. Chapter 3 studies conditional risk premia in a commonly applied default intensity based model for pricing corporate bonds. Here, I refer to such models as completely affine defaultable dynamic term structure models (DDTSMs). There are two main contributions. First, I show that completely affine DDTSMs imply that the compensation for the risk associated with shocks to default intensities (the credit spread risk premium) is related to the volatility of default intensities. Second, I run regressions to show that this relationship holds in a set of corporate bond data. Finally, Chapter 4 proposes a new dynamic model for default rates in large debt port- folios. The model is similar in principle to Duffie, Saita, and Wang (2007) and Duffie, Eckner, Horel, and Saita (2009) in that the default intensity depends on the observed macroeconomic state and unobserved frailty variables. However, the model is designed for use with more commonly available aggregate, rather than individual, default data. Fitting the model to aggregate charge-off rates in US corporate, real-estate and non- mortgage retail sectors, it is found that interest rates, industrial production and unemployment rates have quantitatively plausible effects on aggregate default rates.
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Marten, Elena Renee. "Interest rate risk in UK defined benefit pension schemes." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19721.
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Mestrado em Actuarial ScienceDesde a crise financeira de 2008, fundos de pensões começaram a reconhecer, mais do que nunca, a necessidade de se protegerem contra o risco da taxa de juro. Este risco é o mais significativo e volátil para os fundos de pensões pois uma mudança nas condições do mercado pode ter um grande impacto tanto nos ativos como nos passivos do fundo, afetando o seu nível de financiamento. Estratégias de remoção do risco são críticas à luz dos planos de benefícios definidos (BD) estarem cada vez mais insustentáveis. Fundos de pensões estão a considerar várias estratégias de remoção do risco e a reavaliar as suas estratégias de investimento com o objetivo de garantirem, com elevado nível de confiança, os pagamentos aos seus participantes e beneficiários. Este relatório irá discutir como é que planos BD são afetados pelo risco da taxa de juro, como é que esse risco é refletido no relatório da avaliação e que estratégias e ferramentas são usadas para mitigar este risco. Este relatório é o resultado de um de um estágio de cinco meses na Willis Towers Watson. O foco do estágio foi em avaliações de fundos de pensões do Reino Unido em que eu trabalhei nos cálculos do passivo e na análise dos resultados apresentados no relatório da avaliação. O estágio providenciou-me a oportunidade de aplicar o conhecimento atuarial que desenvolvi durante o Mestrado num ambiente empresarial.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, pension schemes began recognizing more than ever that they need to protect against interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is the most significant and volatile risk to pension schemes because a change in market conditions can have a big impact on both the assets and the liabilities of the pension scheme, affecting the funding level of the scheme. De-risking strategies are critical in light of defined benefit pension schemes becoming increasingly unsustainable. Pension schemes are putting many de-risking strategies into place and reevaluating their investment strategies to get to a position to reliably pay their members. This paper discusses how DB pension schemes are affected by interest rate risk, how the risk is reflected in the actuarial valuation report, and what strategies and tools are used to mitigate interest rate risk. This paper is the result of my five-month curricular internship at Willis Towers Watson. The focus of the internship was UK pension scheme valuations in which I worked with the liability calculations and analysis associated with the actuarial valuation report. The internship gave me the opportunity to apply the actuarial knowledge that I developed in the master to a real work environment. In this paper I show an example of one client who uses de-risking strategies against interest rate risk.
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Williamson, Gareth Alan. "Interest rate risk management : a case study of GBS Mutual Bank." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2008. http://eprints.ru.ac.za/1585/.
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Berg, Simon, and Victor Elfström. "IRRBB in a Low Interest Rate Environment." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273589.
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Financial institutions are exposed to several different types of risk. One of the risks that can have a significant impact is the interest rate risk in the bank book (IRRBB). In 2018, the European Banking Authority (EBA) released a regulation on IRRBB to ensure that institutions make adequate risk calculations. This article proposes an IRRBB model that follows EBA's regulations. Among other things, this framework contains a deterministic stress test of the risk-free yield curve, in addition to this, two different types of stochastic stress tests of the yield curve were made. The results show that the deterministic stress tests give the highest risk, but that the outcomes are considered less likely to occur compared to the outcomes generated by the stochastic models. It is also demonstrated that EBA's proposal for a stress model could be better adapted to the low interest rate environment that we experience now. Furthermore, a discussion is held on the need for a more standardized framework to clarify, both for the institutions themselves and the supervisory authorities, the risks that institutes are exposed to.Finansiella institutioner är exponerade mot flera olika typer av risker. En av de risker som kan ha en stor påverkan är ränterisk i bankboken (IRRBB). 2018 släppte European Banking Authority (EBA) ett regelverk gällande IRRBB som ska se till att institutioner gör tillräckliga riskberäkningar. Detta papper föreslår en IRRBB modell som följer EBAs regelverk. Detta regelverk innehåller bland annat ett deterministiskt stresstest av den riskfria avkastningskurvan, utöver detta så gjordes två olika typer av stokastiska stresstest av avkastningskurvan. Resultatet visar att de deterministiska stresstesten ger högst riskutslag men att utfallen anses vara mindre sannolika att inträffa jämfört med utfallen som de stokastiska modellera genererade. Det påvisas även att EBAs förslag på stressmodell skulle kunna anpassas bättre mot den lågräntemiljö som vi för tillfället befinner oss i. Vidare förs en diskussion gällande ett behov av ett mer standardiserat ramverk för att tydliggöra, både för institutioner själva och samt övervakande myndigheter, vilka risker institutioner utsätts för.
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Hegre, Håvard. "Interest rate modeling with applications to counterparty risk." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Mathematical Sciences, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9470.
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This thesis studies the estimation of credit exposure arising from a portfolio of interest rate derivatives. The estimation is performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results are compared to the exposure obtained under the current exposure method provided by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). We show that the simulation method provides a much richer set of information for credit risk managers. Also, depending on the current exposure and the nature of the transactions, the BIS method can fail to account for potential exposure. All test portfolios benefit significantly from a netting agreement, but the BIS approach tends to overestimate the risk reduction due to netting. In addition we examine the impact of antithetic variates and different time-discretizations. We find that a discretization based on derivatives' start and maturity dates may reduce simulation time significantly without loosing generality in exposure profiles. Antithetic variates have a small effect.
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Nguyen, Hai Nam. "Contributions to credit risk and interest rate modeling." Thesis, Evry-Val d'Essonne, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2013EVRY0038.
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Cette thèse traite de plusieurs sujets en mathématiques financières: risque de crédit, optimisation de portefeuille et modélisation des taux d’intérêts. Le chapitre 1 consiste en trois études dans le domaine du risque de crédit. La plus innovante est la première dans laquel nous construisons un modèle tel que la propriété d’immersion n’est vérifiée sous aucune mesure martingale équivalente. Le chapitre 2 étudie le problème de maximisation de la somme d’une utilité de la richesse terminale et d’une utilité de la consommation. Le chapitre 3 étudie l’évaluation des produits dérivés de taux d’intérêt dans un cadre multicourbe, qui prend en compte la différence entre une courbe de taux sans risque et des courbes de taux Libor de différents tenorsThis thesis deals with several topics in mathematical finance: credit risk, portfolio optimization and interest rate modeling. Chapter 1 consists of three studies in the field of credit risk. The most innovative is the first one, where we construct a model such that the immersion property does not hold under any equivalent martingale measure. Chapter 2 studies the problem of maximization of the sum of the utility of the terminal wealth and the utility of the consumption, in a case where a sudden jump in the risk-free interest rate induces market incompleteness. Chapter 3 studies the valuation of Libor interest rate derivatives in a multiple-curve setup, which accounts for the spreads between a risk-free discount curve and Libor curves of different tenors
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Klaassen, Pieter. "Stochastic programming models for interest-rate risk management." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11913.
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Lu, Yang, and Kevin Visvanathar. "Demand Deposits : Valuation and Interest Rate Risk Management." Thesis, KTH, Entreprenörskap och Innovation, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-169463.
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In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, regulatory authorities have implemented stricter policies to ensure more prudent risk management practices among banks. Despite the growing importance of demand deposits for banks, no policies for how to adequately account for the inherent interest rate risk have been introduced. Demand deposits are associated with two sources of uncertainties which make it difficult to assess its risks using standardized models: they lack a predetermined maturity and the deposit rate may be changed at the bank’s discretion. In light of this gap, this study aims to empirically investigate the modeling of the valuation and interest rate risk of demand deposits with two different frameworks: the Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and the Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). To analyze the two frameworks, models for the demand deposit rate and demand deposit volume are developed using a comprehensive and novel dataset provided by one the biggest commercial banks in Sweden. The findings indicate that including macroeconomic variables in the modeling of the deposit rate and deposit volume do not improve the modeling accuracy. This is in contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies. The findings also indicate that there are modeling differences between demand deposit categories. Finally, the EVM is found to produce interest rate risks with less variability compared to the RPM.Till foljd av nanskrisen 2008 har regulatoriska myndigheter infort mer strikta regelverk for att framja en sund nansiell riskhantering hos banker. Trots avistakontons okade betydelse for banker har inga regulatoriska riktlinjer introducerats for hur den associerade ranterisken ska hanteras ur ett riskperspektiv. Avistakonton ar forknippade med tva faktorer som forsvarar utvarderingen av dess ranterisk med traditionella ranteriskmetoder: de saknar en forutbestamd loptid och avistarantan kan andras nar sa banken onskar. Med hansyn till detta gap fokuserar denna studie pa att empiriskt analysera tva modelleringsramverk for att vardera och mata ranterisken hos avistakonton: Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). Analysen genomfors genom att initialt ta fram modeller for hur avistarantan och volymen pa avistakonton utvecklas over tid med hjalp av ett modernt och unikt dataset fran en av Sveriges storsta kommersiella banker. Studiens resultat indikerar att modellerna for avistarantan och avistavolymen inte forbattras nar makroekonomiska variabler ar inkluderade. Detta ar i kontrast till vad tidigare studier har oreslagit. Vidare visar studiens resultat att det modellerna skiljer sig nar avistakontona ar egmenterade pa en mer granular niva. Slutligen pavisar resultatet att EVM producerar ranteriskestimat som ar mindre kansliga for antanganden an RPM.
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Brodin, Therese, and Frida Harrysson. "Interest rate swap eller inte? : En studie om de största svenska företagens användning av interest rate swaps." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-27845.
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Syfte: Syftet är att undersöka svenska storföretags användande av derivatet ränteswap (svensk benämning för interest rate swap) för år 2012 och 2013 samt att undersöka skillnader utifrån tidigare funna bakomliggande faktorer mellan företag som använder olika typer av ränteswaps och företag som inte använder ränteswap. Metod: Studien tillämpade en empirisk totalundersökning gällande de icke-finansiella företagen noterade på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Large Cap för slutet på år 2012 respektive år 2013. Utifrån företagens årsredovisningar kategoriserades företagen i fyra grupper baserat på företagets användande av ränteswap. Fem tidigare funna bakomliggande faktorer för användandet av ränteswap sammanställdes genomsnittligt per kategori och jämfördes därefter kategorierna emellan. Resultat: Av de största noterade börsföretagen använde 29 av 40 stycken företag ränteswap år 2012 och 29 av 42 företag år 2013. Företag som använde rörlig ränteswap var signifikant större än de företag som inte använde ränteswap för år 2012 och 2013. År 2013 hade de företag som använde fast och båda typer av ränteswaps högre andel kortfristiga lån i jämförelse med de företag som inte använde ränteswap. Uppmätta skillnader kategorierna emellan för de resterande tre undersökta faktorerna; andel långfristiga lån, löptiden på företagens lån liksom företagens förväntade obeståndskostnader var inte signifikanta vilket innebar att de uppmätta skillnaderna inte kunde hänföras till svenska storföretag. Slutsatser: Över två tredjedelar av de undersökta företagen använde ränteswap. Storleken för företag som använde ränteswap var en urskiljande faktor i jämförelse med företag som inte använde ränteswap. För svenska storföretags andel kortfristiga lån för ett av de undersökta åren talar det mesta för att företag som använde ränteswap hade högre andel kortfristiga lån än företag som inte använde ränteswap. Skillnader i andel långfristiga lån, löptid på lån liksom förväntade obeståndskostnader kategorierna emellan kunde inte hänföras till svenska storföretag och därmed inte ses som urskiljande faktorer för användande av ränteswap.Purpose: The purpose is to investigate the largest Swedish companies utilization of interest rate swap (afterwards referred to as IRS), as well as variations in the underlying factors between companies who use IRS and companies who do not. Methodology: The study applied an empirical investigation about the non-financial companies noted on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Large Cap for the end of year 2012 and year 2013. By their annual reports, companies where divided into four categories based on their usage of IRS. Five earlier factors for the use of IRS were compiled per category and were then compared between the categories. Findings: 29 out of the 40 largest listed companies used IRS 2012, and 29 out of 42 companies 2013. The companies who used variable IRS were significantly larger than the ones who didn't use IRS. Companies who used fixed, and both types of IRS year 2013, had a higher proportion of short-term loans compared to the companies which didn't use IRS. Measured differences between the categories for the remaining three factors; proportion of long-term loans, duration on the companies loans as well as their expected distress costs was not significant which implicates that the measured differences could not be assigned to Swedish corporations. Conclusions: Over two thirds of the investigated companies used IRS. The size of the companies that used IRS was a factor which differed between companies who used IRS and the companies that didn't. The proportion of short-term loans showed a significant disparity for one of the investigated years indicated that the companies who used IRS have a larger proportion of short-term loans than the ones who don't. Differences in the proportion of long-term loans, duration on loans and expected distress costs between the categories could not be assigned to Swedish corporations.
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Thomas, Michael Patrick. "Long term extrapolation and hedging of the South African yield curve." Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06172009-085254.
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Staikouras, Sotiris K. "Interest rate volatility and the risk of financial institutions." Thesis, City University London, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.287410.
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Nohrouzian, Hossein. "An Introduction to Modern Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-28415.
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This thesis studies interest rates (even negative), interest rate derivatives and term structure of interest rates. We review the different types of interest rates and go through the evaluation of a derivative using risk-neutral and forward-neutral methods. Moreover, the construction of interest rate models (term-structure models), pricing of bonds and interest rate derivatives, using both equilibrium and no-arbitrage approaches are discussed, compared and contrasted. Further, we look at the HJM framework and the LMM model to evaluate and simulate forward curves and find the forward rates as the discount factors. Finally, the new framework (after financial crisis in 2008), under the collateral agreement (CSA) has been taken into consideration.
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Slinko, Irina. "Essays in option pricing and interest rate models." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögskolan i Stockholm] (EFI), 2006. http://www2.hhs.se/EFI/summary/706.htm.
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Chui, Hiu-fai Sam, and 徐曉暉. "Evaluation of measures taken by financial institutes under the interest rate swing caused by the currency attack." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31268766.
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Howard, Scott T. "Optimal Interest Rate for a Borrower with Estimated Default and Prepayment Risk." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2008. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2400.pdf.
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Roszbach, Kasper. "Essays on banking, credit and interest rates." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.] (EFI), 1998. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/488.htm.
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Bussel, Petrus Johannes Michaël van. "Valuation and interest rate risk of mortgages in the Netherlands." Maastricht : Maastricht : Universiteit Maastricht ; University Library, Maastricht University [Host], 1998. http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=6060.
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Liu, Guanting. "P2P LENDING MARKET: DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATE AND DEFAULT RISK." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44052.
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The peer to peer (p2p) lending industry has grown fast in recent years. This study put an eye on the credit evaluation system of one of the p2p platform named lending club. The author used the empirical method and discussed the determinants of the interest rate and the default risk in the p2p lending market. The author concluded that the evaluation system founded by lending club could predict the risk of loans. Collecting more information about borrowers’ credit history may increase the accuracy of the model.
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Daccache, Rudy. "Interest Rate and Liquidity Risk Management for Lebanese Commercial Banks." Thesis, Lyon 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014LYO10100/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est de fournir à la Banque Audi des outils économétriques et appliqués pour une gestion des risques plus efficace et plus robuste. Les banques libanaises sont aujourd'hui confrontées à des défis plus importants que jamais: l'avenir de la région Moyen-Orient repose sur les conséquences de la guerre civile syrienne. Dans ce contexte, la gestion des taux d'intérêt et de la liquidité s'avère de plus en plus compliqué pour les banques commerciales. En premier lieu, le risque de taux d'intérêt sur le marché libanais sera étudié. Ce marché est connu pour son manque de liquidité et le problème de calibrage des modèles de taux est difficile. Afin de résoudre ce problème, nous utilisons les prix historiques des obligations émises par le gouvernement libanais et libellées en monnaie locale et en dollars américains. Nous considérons des modèles de Nelson-Siegel et Svensson et contraignons le niveau corrélation des facteurs pour stabiliser l'estimation des paramètres de ces modèles. La méthode conduit à des résultats qui s'interprètent très facilement d'un point de vue économique et peuvent être utilisés pour la prévision des variations de la courbe des taux en se basant une analyse ´économique prospective. En second lieu, la problématique des dépôts des clients traditionnels sera étudiée. Ces derniers sont reconnus comme étant la source principale de financement des banques commerciales libanaises (80-85% du passif). Bien qu'ils soient contractuellement des dépôts à court terme (principalement un mois) versant des taux d'intérêt fixes, ces dépôts sont assimilés à une source de financement stable possédant un comportement proche des taux d'intérêt du marché. Nous développons un modèle à correction d'erreur représentant un équilibre à long terme entre le Libor et le taux moyen du secteur bancaire libanais offert sur les dépôts en dollars américains. Les résultats permettent de déterminer une date de réévaluation des dépôts clientèles en cas de fluctuation des taux d'intérêt. Une nouvelle duration du passif tenant compte des comportements des clients a été mise en place. Elle sera par construction plus élevée que la duration contractuelle. En cas de hausse des taux d'intérêt, une baisse de l'écart entre la duration des actifs et des passifs sera alors observée menant à la diminution de l'impact négatif de la hausse. Après avoir étudié le profil de risque des taux des dépôts clientèles, nous commençons la deuxième partie de la thèse par la détermination de l'échéancier des retraits. Nous segmentons les données historiques des données sur les dépôts clientèles selon: la monnaie, le type de dépôt et la résidence du déposant. Pour chaque filtre, un modèle `a correction d'erreur est développé. Les résultats montrent la relation entre les dépôts clientèles, un indicateur relatif du niveau économique et les écarts entre les taux offerts sur le marché libanais. Ainsi, le modèle permettra d'évaluer le comportement des retraits des dépôts clientèles et de comprendre leur profil de risque de liquidité. Les grandes institutions financières détiennent des positions importantes en actifs financiers. La dernière partie de la thèse discute de la gestion du risque de liquidité de marché en cas de session forcée de ces actifs. Nous supposons qu'un investisseur détient une position importante d'un actif donné, à t = 0, un choc sévère provoque une forte dépréciation de la valeur de l'actif et par conséquent, force l'investisseur à opter pour la liquidation du portefeuille dès que possible en limitant ses pertes. Les rendements des actions sont modélisés par des processus de type GARCH qui sont adaptés pour décrire des comportements extrêmes suite à une grande variation de l'actif au temps initial. Suivant que le marché est liquide ou illiquide, nous proposons une stratégie optimale à l'investisseur qui maximise sa fonction d'utilité. Enfin, nous intégrons dans le modèle un avis d'expert pour optimiser la prise d'une décisionThe aim of this thesis is to provide Bank Audi with econometric tools for sake of a more robust risk management. Lebanese businesses today are faced with greater challenges than ever before, both economical and political, and there is a question about the future of the middle east region after the Syrian civil war. Thus, Lebanese commercial banks face greater complications in the management of interest rate and liquidity risk. The first part of this thesis discusses interest rate risk management and measurement in the Lebanese market. First, we seek to build the Lebanese term structure. This market is known by its illiquidity, yields for a given maturity make a large jump with a small impact on other yields even if close to this maturity. Therefore, we face challenges in calibrating existing yield curve models. For this matter, we get historical prices of bonds issued by the Lebanese government, and denominated in Local currency and in US dollar. A new estimation method has been added to Nelson Siegel and Svensson model, we call it “Correlation Constraint Approach”. Model parameters can be interpreted from economical perspective which will be helpful in forecasting yield curve movements based on economist’s opinion. On the second hand, traditional customer deposits are the main funding source of Lebanese commercial banks (80-85% of liabilities). Although they are contractually short term (mainly one month) paying fixed interest rates, these deposits are historically known to be a stable source of funding and therefore exhibit a sticky behavior to changes in market interest rates. We develop an error correction model showing a long-run equilibrium between Libor and Lebanese banking sector average rate offered on USD deposits. Results make it possible to determine the behavioral duration (repricing date) of customer deposits when market interest rates fluctuate. Therefore, the behavioral duration of liabilities will be higher than the contractual one which will lower the duration gap between assets and liabilities and thus the negative impact of positive interest rate shocks. After understanding interest risk profile of customers’ deposits, we start the second part by determining their behavioral liquidation maturity. We get Bank Audi’s historical deposits outstanding balances filtered into the following categories: currency, account typology and residency of depositor. We develop an error correction model for each filter. Results show relationship between deposits behaviors, the coincident indicator and spreads between offered rates in the Lebanese market. The model will lead to assess behavioral liquidation maturity to deposits and understand their liquidity risk profile. This will be helpful for the funding liquidity risk management at Bank Audi. Large financial institutions are supposed to hold large positions of given assets. The last topic is related to market liquidity risk management. We suppose an investor holds a large position of a given asset. Then at time 0, a severe shock causes a large depreciation of the asset value and makes the investor decides to liquidate the portfolio as soon as possible with limited losses. Stock returns are modeled by GARCH process which has tail behaviors after large variation at time 0. Trading on liquid and illiquid markets, we provide the trader with best exit trading strategy maximizing his utility function, finally we incorporate into the model an expert opinion which will help the investor in taking the decision
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Kang, Zhuang. "Illiquid Derivative Pricing and Equity Valuation under Interest Rate Risk." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1282168157.
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Chi, Nam Yau. "Economically justified equity investment strategies capable of withstanding growing interest rate environment." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/18823.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraThis thesis proposes an approach for selection of stocks that could serve as a natural hedge for fixed income portfolios to minimize rising interest rate risk. The developed approach is applied to the case of US equity markets. Based on macroeconomic analysis, vector autoregressive model and Granger causality tests, and financial analysis, it is concluded that US financial sector is the optimal choice among all sectors that have strong correlations with interest rates. The thesis? results could be useful for interest rate risk management of the investment portfolios under the growing interest rate environment, in particular, and for investment industry professionals.
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Liu, Cheng. "Utility-based Futures Contract Pricing under Stochastic Interest Rate, Appreciation Rate and Dividend Yield." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1283524846.
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Yuksel, Ayhan. "Credit Risk Modeling With Stochastic Volatility, Jumps And Stochastic Interest Rates." Master's thesis, METU, 2007. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12609206/index.pdf.
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This thesis presents the modeling of credit risk by using structural approach. Three fundamental questions of credit risk literature are analyzed throughout the research: modeling single firm credit risk, modeling portfolio credit risk and credit risk pricing. First we analyze these questions under the assumptions that firm value follows a geometric Brownian motion and the interest rates are constant. We discuss the weaknesses of the geometric brownian motion assumption in explaining empirical properties of real data. Then we propose a new extended model in which asset value, volatility and interest rates follow affine jump diffusion processes. In our extended model volatility is stochastic, asset value and volatility has correlated jumps and interest rates are stochastic and have jumps. Finally, we analyze the modeling of single firm credit risk and credit risk pricing by using our extended model and show how our model can be used as a solution for the problems we encounter with simple models.
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Gyllenberg, Felix, and Åström Leonard Rudolf. "INTEREST RATE RISK : A comparative study aimed at finding the most crucial shift in interest rate curves for a life insurance company." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-160248.
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Risk management is applied in many financial institutions under regulatory supervision. Life insurance companies face many challenges to ensure policy holders of future payouts. The inverted balance sheet of life insurance companies imply that the policy holder pay premiums in advance to the insurance company to later receive payouts at the age of retirement. This means a great responsibility for the life insurance company to be able to meet future liabilities. Due to this, one of the largest risks facing a life insurance company is the interest rate risk. Future liabilities depend on the interest rates and the difference in duration in assets and liabilities creates an imperfect negative correlation between the movements in assets and liabilities when the interest rate change. The bond market holds different types of bonds such as government bonds, housing bonds and corporate bonds with different maturities within each subgroup. The relationship between these subgroups and maturities within these subgroups are interesting to investigate in a forecasting point of view. This relationship is usually referred to as the term structure of interest rates and changes in the term structure are referred to as shifts. This thesis aims to find which of the three shifts, level, slope and curvature, that is most important to capture in interest rate models. This is investigated using three different simulation techniques and the results show that the first shift representing a level shift of the whole term structure has the largest effect on Skandia’s balance sheet.
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Xie, Yan Alice Wu Chunchi. "Immunization of interest rate risk and pricing of default risk of bond portfolios." Related Electronic Resource: Current Research at SU : database of SU dissertations, recent titles available full text, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/syr/main.
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Ruprecht, Benedikt [Verfasser], and Marco [Akademischer Betreuer] Wilkens. "Banks' Interest Rate Risk: Pricing and Risk Management / Benedikt Ruprecht. Betreuer: Marco Wilkens." Augsburg : Universität Augsburg, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1077703104/34.
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Murase, Takeo. "Interest Rate Risk – Using Benchmark Shifts in a Multi Hierarchy Paradigm." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-129293.
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This master thesis investigates the generic benchmark approach to measuring interest rate risk. First the background and market situation is described followed by an outline of the concept and meaning of measuring interest rate risk with generic benchmarks. Finally a single yield curve in an arbitrary currency is analyzed in the cases where linear interpolation and cubic interpolation technique is utilized. It is shown that in the single yield curve setting with linear interpolation or cubic interpolation the problem of finding interest rate scenarios can be formulated as convex optimization problems implying properties such as convexity and monotonicity. The analysis also shed light on the difference between linear interpolation and cubic interpolation technique for which scenario is generated and means to go about solving for the scenarios generated by the views imposed on the generic benchmark instruments. Further research on the topic of the generic benchmark approach that would advance the understanding of the model is suggested at the end of the paper. However at this stage it seems like using generic benchmark instruments for measuring interest rate risk is a consistent and computational viable option which not only measures the interest rate risk exposure but also provide a guidance in how to act in order to manage interest rate risk in a multi hierarchy paradigm
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Yueh, Meng-Lan. "Numerical lattice methods for implementing interest rate and credit risk models." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2002. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.252479.
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Rahantamialisoa, Tahirivonizaka Fanirisoa Zazaravaka. "Interest rates market and models after the 2007 credit crunch." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/20413.
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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The interest rates market has changed dramatically since the 2007 credit crunch with the explosion of basis spreads between rates of different tenors and currencies. Consequently, the classical replication of FRA rates with spot LIBOR rates is no longer valid. Moreover, the 2007 credit crunch yields a separation between the curve used for discounting and the forward or projection curves that estimate all future cash-fl ows. Another impact of the credit crunch in risk management is that market participants have started to give more importance to the difference between collateralized and uncollateralized trades. Nowadays, the wide spread use of collateral, especially in swap contracts, has made the overnight index swap (OIS) rate the appropriate benchmark for discounting collateralized trades. Inspired by the seminal works of Mercurio (2010a,b), Kijima et al. (2008), Fujii et al. (2011), Bianchetti (2010b), with the contributions of other authors, and motivated by the evolution of the interest rates market and models, this thesis examines a new framework that uses multiple-curves to value interest rate derivatives which is compatible with the current market practice. Firstly, we discuss the roots of the 2007 credit crunch and its serious consequences for pricing interest rate derivatives. We underscore the necessity of a multiple-curve pricing framework for interest rate derivatives. This is followed by a discussion on the importance of collateralization and OIS discounting in pricing Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives. The central part of the thesis discusses the modern theoretical framework and the practical implementation of the multiple curve pricing method. We present a bootstrapping algorithm used to construct and fit the multiple-yield curves to market prices of plainvanilla contracts. Secondly, starting with the single-currency economy, the extended version of the LIBOR Market Model, developed by Mercurio (2010a,b), which proposes a joint model of FRA rates, implied forward rates and their corresponding spread is investigated. Analogously, the extended version of short-rate model in a multiple-curve setup and in the presence of basis spread, proposed by Kijima et al. (2008), is presented and discussed. This work provides a detailed analysis of these extensions and the corresponding closed formulae for liquid products such as caps and swaptions. Finally, in the multiple-currencies case, the HJM model with stochastic basis spreads, introduced by Fujii et al. (2011), consistent with the foreign exchange and cross-currency swaps markets that includes the effect of collateralization is examined thoroughly.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die rentekoers mark het dramaties verander sedert die 2007 krediet krisis met 'n ontplo ng van basisverspreidings tussen koerse van verskillende looptye ("tenor") en geldeenhede. As gevolg, is die klassieke replikasie van FRA koerse met LIBOR sigkoerse nie langer geldig nie. Verder het die 2007 kredietkrisis 'n skeiding veroorsaak tussen die kromme wat gebruik word vir diskontering en die voorwaardse of vooruitskattings krommes wat toekomstige kontantvloei voorspel. 'n Verdere impak van die kredietkrisis in risikobestuur is dat mark deelnemers begin het om meer klem te lê op verskille tussen aangevulde en onaangevulde handel. Deesdae, met die algemene gebruik van kollaterale sekuriteit, veral in ruiltransaksiekontrakte, is die oornagse indeks ruiltransaksie (overnight index swap, OIS) koers die geskikte maatstaf om aangevulde handel te diskonteer. Geïnspireer deur die gedagteryke werk van Mercurio (2010a,b), Kijima et al. (2008), Fujii et al. (2011), Bianchetti (2010b), met bydrae van menige outeurs, en gemotiveer deur die evolusie van die rentekoers markte en modelle, ondersoek hierdie tesis 'n nuwe raamwerk wat multikrommes gebruik om rentekoers afgeleide effekte te waardeer wat versoenbaar is met die lopende mark praktyk. Eerstens, bespreek ons die oorsake van die 2007 kredietkrisis en die ernstige nagevolge vir die waardering van rentekoers afgeleide effekte. Ons beklemtoon die noodsaaklikheid van 'n multikromme waarderings raamwerk vir rentekoers afgeleide effekte. Dit word gevolg deur 'n bespreking oor die belangrikheid van aanvulling en OIS diskontering in die waardering van oor-die-toonbank (over-the-counter, OTC) effekte. Die teoretiese raamwerk en die praktiese implimentering van die multikromme waarderings metode word bespreek. Ons stel ook ten toon 'n skoenlus ("bootstrapping") algoritme wat gebruik kan word om meervoudige opbrengs krommes saam te stel en die dan te pas op mark pryse van vanielje kontrakte. Tweedens, met 'n enkel geldeenheid ekonomie as beginpunt, word die uitgebreide weergawe van die LIBOR Mark Model (ontwikkel deur Mercurio (2010a,b), wat 'n gesamentlike model van FRA koerse voorstel), geïmpliseerde termyn koerse en hul ooreenstemmende verspreiding bestudeer. Ooreenkomstig word die uitgebreide weergawe van die kort koers model in 'n multikromme opset en in die aanwesigheid van basisspreiding (voorgestel deur Kijima et al. (2008)) uiteengesit en bespreek. Hierdie werk verskaf 'n uitvoerige analise van hierdie uitbreidings en die ooreenstemmende geslote formules vir vloeibare produkte soos perke en ruiltransaksie opsies. Ten slotte, in die multi-geldeenheid geval, word die HJM model met stogastiese basisverspreiding (voorgestel deur Fujii et al. (2011)), nie-strydig met buitelandse valuta en kruisvaluta ruiltransaksie markte wat die effekte van aanvulling insluit word deuglik bestudeer.
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Drakos, K. S. "The dynamics of term structure risk and exchange rates." Thesis, University of Essex, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.313099.
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Akcay, Mustafa. "THREE ESSAYS ON THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGET INTEREST RATES ON BANK DISTRESS AND SYSTEMIC RISK." Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2018. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/518632.
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EconomicsPh.D.
My dissertation topic is on the impact of changes in the monetary policy interest rate target on bank distress and systemic risk in the U.S. banking system. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 had devastating effects on the banking system worldwide. The feeble performance of financial institutions during the crisis heightened the necessity of understanding systemic risk exhibited the critical role of monitoring the banking system, and strongly necessitated quantification of the risks to which banks are exposed, for incorporation in policy formulation. In the aftermath of the crisis, US bank regulators focused on overhauling the then existing regulatory framework in order to provide comprehensive capital buffers against bank losses. In this context, the Basel Committee proposed in 2011, the Basel III framework in order to strengthen the regulatory capital structure as a buffer against bank losses. The reform under Basel III framework aimed at raising the quality and the quantity of regulatory capital base and enhancing the risk coverage of the capital structure. Separately, US bank regulators adopted the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) to implement stress tests on systemically important bank holding companies (SIBs). Concerns about system-wide distress have broadened the debate on banking regulation towards a macro prudential approach. In this context, limiting bank risk and systemic risk has become a prolific research field at the crossroads of banking, macroeconomics, econometrics, and network theory over the last decade (Kuritzkes et al., 2005; Goodhart and Sergoviano, 2008; Geluk et al., 2009; Acharya et al., 2010, 2017; Tarashev et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2012; Browless and Engle, 2012, 2017 and Cummins, 2014). The European Central Bank (ECB) (2010) defines systemic risk as a risk of financial instability “so widespread that it impairs the functioning of a financial system to the point where economic growth and welfare suffer materially.” While US bank regulators and policy-makers have moved to strengthen the regulatory framework in the post-crisis period in order to prevent another financial crisis, a growing recent line of research has suggested that there is a significant link between monetary policy and bank distress (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist, 1999; Borio and Zhu, 2008; Gertler and Kiyotaki, 2010; Delis and Kouretas, 2010; Gertler and Karadi, 2011; Delis et al., 2017). In my research, I examine the link between the monetary policy and bank distress. In the first chapter, I investigate the impact of the federal funds rate (FFR) changes on the banking system distress between 2001 and 2013 within an unrestricted vector auto-regression model. The Fed used FFR as a primary policy tool before the financial crisis of 2007-2009, but focused on quantitative easing (QE) during the crisis and post-crisis periods when the FFR hit the zero bound. I use the Taylor rule rate (TRR, 1993) as an “implied policy rate”, instead of the FFR, to account for the impact of QE on the economy. The base model of distress includes three macroeconomic indicators—real GDP growth, inflation, and TRR—and a systemic risk indicator (Expected capital shortfall (ES)). I consider two model extensions; (i) I include a measure of bank lending standards to account for the changes in the systemic risk due to credit tightening, (ii) I replace inflation with house price growth rate to see if the results remain robust. Three main results can be drawn. First, the impulse response functions (IRFs) show that raising the monetary policy rate contributed to insolvency problems for the U.S. banks, with a one percentage point increase in the rate raising the banking systemic stress by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, in the base and extend models. Second, variance decomposition (VDs) analysis shows that up to ten percent of error variation in systemic risk indicator can be attributed to innovations in the policy rate in the extended model. Third, my results supplement the view that policy rate hikes led to housing bubble burst and contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This is an example for how monetary policy-making gets more complex and must be conducted with utmost caution if there is a bubble in the economy. In the second chapter, I examine the prevalence and asymmetry of the effects on bank distress from positive and negative shocks to the target fed fund rate (FFR) in the period leading to the financial crisis (2001-2008). A panel model with three blocks of control variables is used. The blocks include: positive/negative FFR shocks, macroeconomic drivers, and bank balance sheet indicators. A distress indicator similar to Texas Ratio is used to proxy distress. Shocks to FFR are defined along the lines suggested by Morgan (1993). Three main results are obtained. First, FFR shocks, either positive or negative, raise bank distress over the following year. Second, the magnitudes of the effects from positive and negative shocks are unequal (asymmetric); a 100 bps positive (negative) shock raises the bank distress indicator (scaled from 0 to 1) by 9 bps (3 bps) over the next year. Put differently, after a 100 bps positive (negative) shock, the probability of bankruptcy rises from 10% to 19% (13%). Third, expanding operations into non-banking activities by FHCs does not benefit them in terms of distress due to unanticipated changes in the FFR as FFR shocks (positive or negative) create similar levels of distress for BHCs and FHCs. In the third chapter, I explore the systemic risk contributions of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from 2001 to 2015 by using the expected shortfall approach. Developed by analogy with the component expected shortfall concept, I decompose the aggregate systemic risk, as measured by expected shortfall, into several subgroups of banks by using publicly available balance sheet data to define the probability of bank default. The risk measure, thus, encompasses the entire universe of banks. I find that concentration of assets in a smaller number of larger banks raises systemic risk. The systemic risk contribution of banks designated as SIFIs increased sharply during the financial crisis and reached 74% at the end of 2015. Two-thirds of this risk contribution is attributed to the four largest banks in the U.S.: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. I also find that diversifying business operations by expanding into nontraditional operations does not reduce the systemic risk contribution of financial holding companies (FHCs). In general, FHCs are individually riskier than BHCs despite their more diversified basket of products; FHCs contribute a disproportionate amount to systemic risk given their size, all else being equal. I believe monetary policy-making in the last decade carries many lessons for policy makers. Particularly, the link between the monetary policy target rate and bank distress and systemic risk is an interesting topic by all accounts due to its implications and challenges (explained in more detail in first and second chapters). The literature studying the relation between bank distress and monetary policy is fairly small but developing fast. The models I investigate in my work are simple in many ways but they may serve as a basis for more sophisticated models.
Temple University--Theses
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Štork, Zbyněk. "Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-125158.
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Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.
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Ho, Siu Lam. "Lévy LIBOR model and credit risk /." View abstract or full-text, 2007. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?MATH%202007%20HOS.
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Davis, Caleb M. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Interest Rate Spreads: Explaining the Risk." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2011. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/294.
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This paper will attempt to explain fluctuations in emerging market interest rate spreads by examining the implied federal funds effective rates that are derived from federal funds interest rate futures contracts. It will focus on comparing the individual relationships between four widely-used measures of U.S. monetary policy and emerging market interest rate spreads to determine which is the most powerful. The four measures of U.S. monetary policy are as follows: the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, federal funds effective rate, federal funds target rate, and the implied rate from one-month federal funds futures contracts. It will expand upon previous studies that have been conducted on this topic, namely that of which done by Vivek Arora and Martin Cerisola in 2000 that attempted to explain the relationship between U.S. monetary policy, measured by the federal funds effective rate, and emerging market interest rates spreads. I find that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury to be the most powerful driver of changes in emerging market interest rate spreads. However, I also find that the implied rate from federal funds interest rate futures is still highly indicative of spreads, especially when compared to the target and effective federal funds rates.
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Abiola, Isaac Abiodun. "Modeling credit risk spread and interest rate volatility in the Eurodollar market." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/nq25214.pdf.
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MACHADO, SERGIO JURANDYR. "INTEREST RATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN PENSION FUNDS: IMMUNIZATION S LIMITS AND POSSIBILITIES." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2006. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9155@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROO termo imunização denota a construção de uma carteira de títulos de forma a torná-la imune a variações nas taxas de juros. No caso das entidades de previdência complementar, o objetivo da imunização é distribuir os recebimentos intermediários e finais dos ativos de acordo com o fluxo de pagamentos dos benefícios. Em geral, quanto maior a classe de alterações na estrutura a termo das taxas de juros (ETTJ), mais restritivo se torna o modelo. Embora exista uma vasta literatura sobre o aspecto estatístico e sobre o significado econômico dos modelos de imunização, esse trabalho inova ao prover uma análise detalhada do desempenho comparado dos modelos, sob três perspectivas complementares: o método escolhido, a dimensionalidade e, ainda, o horizonte de investimento. Entretanto, a decisão final do gestor não está restrita à escolha do método de imunização, como também ao horizonte de investimento a ser imunizado, uma vez que outros instrumentos financeiros podem garantir tanto a solvência econômica quanto a financeira. Os limites não operacionais à imunização são analisados por meio da comparação das medianas do relativo de riqueza e da probabilidade de exaustão da carteira. A análise permite concluir que os modelos de imunização tradicional são mais eficientes, especialmente no médio e longo prazo, que os modelos multidimensionais de gestão do risco de taxa de juros. Ademais, demonstra-se que não existem limites naturais à imunização, quando aplicada ao mercado previdenciário brasileiro por um período igual ou inferior a 10 anos.
Immunization is defined as the investment in assets in such a way that the fixed income portfolio is immune to a change in interest rates. In the special case of pension funds, immunization seeks the distribution of the cash inflows in accordance with the outflows represented by the fund´s liabilities. The article compares distinct alternative methods of immunization against the traditional duration-matching strategy. All portfolios were obtained as a result of mathematical programming problems, where the choice of the immunization strategy led to the restrictions imposed on the evolution of the term structure of interest rates. Despite the intensive research related to this subject, there are some gaps to be filled yet, especially those concerned with the investment horizon. That is exactly the main objective of this thesis. The work provides the basis for selecting the most appropriate method for immunization and also demonstrates the superiority of the traditional duration-matching strategy, especially in the medium and long run. Moreover, it is demonstrated that there is no limit other than operational to the immunization process concerning Brazilian markets for investment horizons of less than 10 years.
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Pansera, Jérôme. "Local risk minimization, consistent interest-rate modeling, and applications to life insurance." Diss., University of Iowa, 2008. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/15.
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This thesis studies local risk minimization, consistent interest-rate modeling, and their applications to life insurance.
Part I considers local risk minimization, which is one possible approach to price and hedge claims in incomplete markets. In this first part, our two main results are Propositions 3.6 and 4.3: they provide an easy way to compute locally risk-minimizing hedging strategies for common life-insurance products in discrete time and in continuous time, respectively.
Part II considers consistent interest-rate modeling; that is, interest-rate models in which a change in the yield curve can be explained by a change in the state variable, without changing the parameters of the model. In this second part, we present a single-factor interest-rate model (jointly specified under the physical and the risk-neutral probability measures), which allows for observation errors. Our main result is an algorithm to estimate the hidden values of the state variable, as well as the five parameters of our model. We also outline how our results can be extended to the multi-factor case.
Part III combines the results of Parts I and II in a numerical example. In this example, we compute a locally risk-minimizing hedging strategy for a life annuity under stochastic interest rates. We assume that the insurance company is trying to hedge this product by trading zero-coupon bonds of various maturities. Since a perfect hedge is impossible in this case, we obtain (by simulation) the distribution of the cost resulting from the ``mis-hedge''. This distribution is with respect to the physical probability measure, while most of the existing literature considers it under a risk-neutral measure.
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Henningsson, Peter, and Christina Skoglund. "A framework for modeling the liquidity and interest rate risk of demand deposits." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187478.
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The objective of this report is to carry out a pre-study and develop a framework for how the liquidity and interest rate risk of a bank's demand deposits can be modeled. This is done by first calibrating a Vasicek short rate model and then deriving models for the bank's deposit volume and deposit rate using multiple regression. The volume model and the deposit rate model are used to determine the liquidity and interest rate risk, which is done separately. The liquidity risk is determined by a liquidity quantile which estimates the minimum deposit volume that is expected to remain in the bank over a given time period. The interest rate risk is quantified by an arbitrage-free valuation of the demand deposit which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the net present value of the demand deposit caused by a parallel shift in the market rates. Furthermore, an immunization and a replicating portfolio are constructed and the performances of these are tested when introducing the same parallel shifts in the market rates as in the valuation of the demand deposit. The conclusion of this thesis is that the framework for the liquidity risk management that is developed gave satisfactory results and could be used by the bank if the deposit volume is estimated on representative data and a more accurate model for the short rate is used. The interest rate risk framework did however not yield as reliable results and would be more challenging to implement as a more advanced model for the deposit rate is required.Målet med denna rapport är att utveckla ett ramverk för att bestämma likviditets-och ränterisken som är relaterad till en banks inlåningsvolym. Detta görs genom att först ta fram en modell för korträntan via kalibrering av en Vasicek modell. Därefter utvecklas, genom multipelregression, modeller för att beskriva bankens inlåningsvolym och inlåningsränta. Dessa modeller används för att kvantifiera likviditets- och ränterisken för inlånings-volymen, vilka beräknas och presenteras separat. Likviditetsrisken bestäms genom att en likviditetskvantil tas fram, vilken estimerar den minimala inlånings-volymen som förväntas kvarstå hos banken över en given tidsperiod. Ränterisken kvantifieras med en arbitragefri värdering av inlåningen och resultatet används för att bestämma känsligheten för hur nuvärdet av inlåningsvolymen påverkas av ett parallellskifte. Utöver detta bestäms en immuniseringsportfölj samt en rep-likerande portfölj och resultatet av dessa utvärderas mot hur nuvärdet förändras givet att samma parallellskifte i ränteläget som tidigare introduceras. Slutsatsen av projektet är att det framtagna ramverket för att bestämma likviditetsrisken för inlåningen gav bra resultat och skulle kunna implementeras i dagsläget av banken, förutsatt att volymmodellen estimeras på representativ data samt att en bättre modell för korträntan används. Ramverket för att bestämma ränterisken gav dock inte lika tillförlitliga resultat och är mer utmanande att implementera då en mer avancerad modell för inlåningsräntan krävs.
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Tiozzo, Pezzoli Luca. "Specification analysis of interest rates factors : an international perspective." Phd thesis, Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00999298.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of this thesis is to model the dynamics of international term structure of interest rates taking into consideration several dependence channels.Thanks to a new international Treasury yield curve database, we observe that the explained variability decision criterion, suggested by the literature, is not able to select the best combination of factors characterizing the joint dynamics of yield curves. We propose a new methodology based on the maximisation of the likelihood function of a Gaussian state-space model with common and local factors. The associated identification problem is solved in an innovative way. By estimating several sets of countries, we select two global (and three local) factors which are also useful to forecast macroeconomic variables in each considered economy.In addition, our method allows us to detect hidden factors in the international bond returns. They are not visible through a classical principal component analysis of expected bond returns but they are helpful to forecast inflation and industrial production. Keywords: International treasury yield curves, common and local factors, state-space models, EM algorithm, International bond risk premia, principal components.
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Wilkens, Carl. "Auri sacra fames : interest rates : prediction, jumps and the market price of risk /." Stockholm : Department of Economics, Stockholm University, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-710.
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譚丹琪. "Hedging interest rate risk with interest rate futures." Thesis, 1992. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/44141351315523049026.
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Duarte, Jefferson. "The relevance of the price of risk in affine term structure models /." 2000. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:9990513.
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Vojtek, Martin. "Essays on Interest Rates and Credit Risk." Doctoral thesis, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-276161.
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This dissertation addresses inefficiencies and problems in the financial markets of post-transition countries, which denies the use of standard estimation techniques. It focuses on interest rate markets and empirically analyzes the situation in the countries that joined the EU in May 2004. These countries underwent significant changes over the last two decades and markets in these countries are often not stable and not developed. In my dissertation I am conducting research in the areas where the empirical results are very scarce. A deeper understanding of the specifics in the markets of post-transition countries can be very helpful for example in designing policy measures touching these markets.
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Lin, Kun-San, and 林昆三. "Bank interest rate and liquidity risk management." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/69244232996948162300.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
財務金融學研究所
94
The interest rate and liquidity risk management of the bank is very important element in the Asset Liability Management (ALM). With the deregulation and internationalization of financial environment and the greater price competition among financial industry, bank interest rate spread is compressed and the profit is decreased. Therefore, it becomes even more important for banks to manage interest rate risk and the liquidity risk to maintain on adequate level of liquidity and to protect its net interest income from being influenced by fluctuation of interest rate. Results from this work can provide valuable references: 1. Find the factors with the influence interest rate. 2. Establish the measuring criteria of the interest rate and the liquidity risk and a better proformance of Asset and Liability committee. 3. Manage interest rate and liquidity risk. 4. Utilize financial instruments to manage the risk. According to the significant reform brought by the R.O.C. Statements of Financial Accounting Standards No. 34 “Accounting for Financial Instruments”, the enterprises are required to measure their financial instruments based on the fair value. This research also analyses the impacts of No. 34 to Asset and Liability allocation and liquidity, and give the suggestions to manage this problem.
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Caldeira, Miguel costa. "Interest rate risk model in banking book." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/72924.
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The aim of this project is to create an interest rate model for Banco CTT’s Banking Book capable to meet the upcoming regulatory requirements as well as internal demands driven by recent portfolio expansion and expectations of future interest rate normalization after a long period marked by a negative interest rate environment. Upon the results obtained, it is clear that Bank’s exposure to interest rate risk is stable and within the limits defined by regulatory authorities. However, veracity of the model should be continuously assessed, and structural balance sheet adjustments should be performed so that interest rate exposure is aligned with its overall low risk appetite.
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LIN, YI-CHING, and 林怡菁. "A Study on the Interest Rate Risk of the Interest Sensitive Annuity." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/nxbx64.
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碩士朝陽科技大學
保險金融管理系碩士班
93
The life insurance company to the equal sensitive of the market interest rate, the Interest Sensitive Annuity Insurance in recent two years of best-selling reduce the connection with the market interest rate. The Interest Sensitive Annuity property and the bank Certificate of Deposit to connect near, pass by it to declared interest rate is along with bank of two years the periodical savings deposit interest rate to float, the most high can add 1.5 ﹪, lowest can reduce 1﹪. At present the market interest rate will go up gradually, the regulator worries the Interest Sensitive Annuity asset to install, can''t respond the trend of the interest rate rising quickly, will cause the management burden of the life insurance company. Therefore manage the policy of the organization leading in the regulator, from 2005-06-01, new insurance contract for declared interest rate upper limit to change to the government bond, descend the limit then not to zero. This research explores the variety of declared interest rate for the Interest Sensitive Annuity with asset and liability to do an analysis. The empirical results indicate that in this text model suppose under, when expectation in the future the market interest rate rises, new system can make the life insurance company produced the surplus, reduce the interest rate risk brings of finance crisis.