Academic literature on the topic 'International air freight services'

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Journal articles on the topic "International air freight services"

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Yarlina, Lita. "Pangsa Pasar (Market Share) Logistik /Kargo oleh Perusahaan Jasa Angkutan Udara yang Beroperasi di Bandar Udara Internasional Sepinggan Balikpapan." WARTA ARDHIA 39, no. 2 (June 28, 2013): 113–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.25104/wa.v39i2.113.113-127.

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Growth of air freight logistics/ cargo in Indonesia, especially in East Kalimantan is very high in the 5 (five) years so that the need for air freight logistics services company is also very high. At this time, cargo/ logistics from and to the outside Balikpapan are served by air cargo transportation service/ logistics services company and scheduled commercial air transport. The purpose of this study is to look at the market share of air freight logistics / cargo in Sepinggan Balikpapan International Airport. 87.08% to 95.15% market share is still dominated by scheduled commercial air transport services, namely Garuda Indonesia, Lion Air and Sriwijaya. While freight logistics services company/cargo has only 59.09% to 72.62% market share which are Tri MG Airline namely, Megantara Water, Water Mark and Garuda Indonesia.Pertumbuhan angkutan udara logistik/kargo di Indonesia khususnya wilayah Kalimantan Timur dalam 5 (lima) tahun belakangan ini sangat tinggi sehingga kebutuhan akan perusahaan jasa angkutan udara logistik juga sangat tinggi. Pada saat ini, kargo/logistik yang diangkut dari dan ke luar Balikpapan dilayani oleh perusahaan jasa angkutan udara kargo/logistik dan perusahaan jasa angkutan udara komersial berjadwal. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk melihat pangsa pasar angkutan udara logistik/kargo di Bandar Udara Internasional Sepinggan Balikpapan. Pangsa pasar 87,08% sampai 95,15% masih didominasi oleh perusahaan jasa angkutan udara komersial berjadwal yaitu PT. Garuda Indonesia, PT. Mentari Lion Air dan PT. Sriwijaya Air. Sedangkan perusahaan jasa angkutan logistik/kargo memiliki pangsa pasar 59,09% sampai dengan 72,62% yaitu Tri MG Airline, Megantara Air, Air Mark dan Garuda Indonesia.
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Yang, Cheng-Hong, Jen-Chung Shao, Yen-Hsien Liu, Pey-Huah Jou, and Yu-Da Lin. "Application of Fuzzy-Based Support Vector Regression to Forecast of International Airport Freight Volumes." Mathematics 10, no. 14 (July 8, 2022): 2399. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10142399.

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As freight volumes increase, airports are likely to require additional infrastructure development, increased air services, and expanded facilities. Prediction of freight volumes could ensure effective investment. Among the computational intelligence models, support vector regression (SVR) has become the dominant modeling paradigm. In this study, a fuzzy-based SVR (FSVR) model was used to solve the freight volume prediction problem in international airports. The FSVR model can use a fuzzy time series of historical traffic changes for predictions. A fuzzy classification algorithm was used for elements of similar levels in the time series to appropriately divide traffic changes into fuzzy sets, generate membership function values, and establish a fuzzy relationship to produce a fuzzy interpolation with a minimal error. A comparison of the FSVR model with other models revealed that the FSVR model had the lowest mean absolute percentage error (all < 2.5%), mean absolute error, and root mean square error for all types of traffic at all the analyzed airports. Fuzzy sets can handle uncertainty and imprecision in time series. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the entire time series model is improved by taking advantage of SVR and fuzzy sets. By using the highly accurate FSVR model to predict the future growth of air freight volume, airport management could analyze their existing facilities and service capacity to identify operational bottlenecks and plan future development. The FSVR model is the most accurate forecasting model for air traffic forecasting.
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Świszcz, Agnieszka. "International Cargo Air Transport." Transport Economics and Logistics 83 (September 17, 2019): 105–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.26881/etil.2019.83.08.

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Air transport is one of the most developing field of the global transport market. Every year there is an increase in the number of transported people and loads. The share of passenger and cargo transport by air in relation to other competitive transport branches is still growing. The biggest advantage of this branch is the possibility of transporting passengers as well as long-distance loads in a relatively short time. One of the service segments of the air transport market is cargo sub-market. Its development is primarily due to the needs of the economy and environmental conditions. The effects of spatial differentiation causing that goods are produced in places where they are not always consumed, contributes to the increase in demand for transport services, including air transport. As a result of the devel-opment of globalization processes on transport markets, changes in the structure of transported goods are observed. In the 21st century, the e-commerce segment plays a significant role. It should be presumed that there will still be changes in the structure of the cargo transport. The main goal of the article will be to analyze the market for air freight transport. Reaching the goal will be carried out secondary research based on available literature on the subject. As a result of the data analysis, it was found that the largest forwarding companies are: DHL Global Forwarding, CEVA Logistic and DB Schenker. The remaining 55% are other forwarding companies.
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Tzannatos, Ernestos, Basil Tselentis, and Alkis Corres. "AN INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT SERVICE IN COMPARISON TO LAND-BASED ALTERNATIVES IN SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE: ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AIR QUALITY PERFORMANCE." TRANSPORT 31, no. 1 (March 22, 2016): 119–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16484142.2016.1129647.

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Towards the strive of developing sustainable freight transport networks in Europe, the EU and the developing South-Eastern Europe in particular, this paper initially examines the feasibility of establishing a navigable link along the Axios–Morava waterway, for freight transport between the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (via the Aegean) and the Danube River, and then proceeds with its energy and air quality comparison with the competing modes of rail and road. It was found that this waterway service is technically feasible and offers an energy and carbon efficient alternative to road-borne and rail-borne freight. However, the land-based services were found to be superior with regard to their impact upon the air quality of the region, mainly attributed to the stricter emission standards applicable to these transport modes. Finally, it is proposed to build on the ongoing international policy and funding interest in this project in order to implement all the necessary infrastructural and operational changes which will make the proposed waterway service a commercially and environmentally sustainable freight transport alternative in South-Eastern Europe.
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Chang, Kian Chuan, and Mark Brian Debowski. "Regulatory perspectives of the air express industry." Journal of Transportation Management 16, no. 1 (April 1, 2005): 31–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.22237/jotm/1112313840.

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In its early days, the international air express industry was synonymous with on-board couriers, carrying bags of documents on commercial flights. The industry has changed dramatically. That initial focus on documents has widened into the transport of packages and freight, carried by fleets of fully owned or dedicated aircraft, trucks, trains and delivery vans. The bulk of the business is dominated by 24-hour guaranteed and next-day deliveries. “Every day, hundreds of thousands of employees serve the distribution needs of an increasing number of businesses worldwide from one region to another” (European Express Association, 2002). The express companies are also making use of state-of-the-art information technology systems to provide minute-by-minute control and track and trace information. All the resources in the industry are dedicated to providing customers maximum reliability and flexibility of service. In this article, detailed information on major regulatory barriers in the air express industry are presented. Furthermore, recommendations on how to minimize the impact of these barriers in order to build a better future (with reference to operational efficiency, cost effectiveness and wider coverage of services to the final customers) are also discussed.
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Tarr, Anna P., Inga J. Smith, and Craig J. Rodger. "Carbon dioxide emissions from international air transport of people and freight: New Zealand as a case study." Environmental Research Communications 4, no. 7 (July 1, 2022): 075012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/abf15d.

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Abstract International aviation accounts for over 2% of global emissions, but was not subject to Kyoto Protocol liabilities, and was not directly addressed by the Paris Agreement. Calculating emissions associated with individual countries is complicated, with data that is publicly available and free to access often being difficult to obtain. In this paper, a case study is presented where commercially sensitive fuel uplift is used to calculate New Zealand specific emissions factors of 0.81 kg CO2 per tonne km (CO2 per t-km) for short-haul and 0.79 kg CO2 per t-km for long-haul international aviation. This was used to estimate international aviation CO2 emissions associated with New Zealand in 2017 to be 8.4 Mt CO2 in total (2 significant figures, rounded down), with international visitor travel to and from New Zealand accounting for 4.3 Mt CO2, New Zealand residents’ international travel for 2.6 Mt CO2, exports for 0.72 Mt CO2, and imports for 0.89 Mt CO2 (all 2 significant figures, rounded up). Results show the fleet of aeroplanes which serviced New Zealand between 2007 and 2017 has become, on average, less efficient due to changes in operational factors such as seating density.
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RATA, Vasile, Angela IVAN, and Liliana RUSU. "THE IMPACT GENERATED BY SARS-COV-2 VIRUS ON THE AIR QUALITY IN THE CONSTANTA PORT AREA." Mechanical Testing and Diagnosis 10, no. 3 (October 15, 2020): 26–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.35219/mtd.2020.3.05.

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The effect that the shipping industry has on the air quality in the areas adjacent to the ports, where it carries out loading and unloading operations, it is already known. In the new global context generated by the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the economy was affected. Due to the measures that many states have taken to limit the spread of this virus among people, the production activity has been stopped in many economic sectors and consequently, the freight industry by sea has also been affected. Measures that have been taken in the navigable sector in Romania are known, but also worldwide. In the perspective of reducing the density of ships in ports, the evolution of some parameters of air quality in the area of Constanta County will be followed. This evolution will be correlated with the evolution of the volume of port calls of international ships to the port services in the port of Constanta and presented in this study
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Gattuso, Domenico, Margherita Malara, and Gian Carla Cassone. "Planning and Simulation of Intermodal Freight Transport on International Networks. Hub and Spoke System in Euro-Mediterranean Area." Sustainability 12, no. 3 (January 21, 2020): 776. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12030776.

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The remarkable demographic growth and economic development of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean regions stimulate an ever increasing need for trade between the shores, especially from regions of North Africa and the Middle East towards Western European countries. Today, these exchanges take place mainly by sea and by roll on-roll off (Ro-Ro) ships; but the connections by container ships and by road transport are important too. Ro-Ro services are particularly crammed in some North-South directions, with relationships among few ports and with rather limited frequencies. Road transport, especially between the Middle East and Europe, has different limits in terms of cost, safety, and reliability. The paper proposes a hypothesis of a logistic organization on a Euro-Mediterranean scale, through the transition from a network of direct links to a hub and spoke (H&S) network, according to the scheme envisaged for air transport. The research aims to explore, within a framework of the socio-economic system and the mobility demand system, the feasibility of a H&S network for Ro-Ro freight in the Mediterranean basin, based on a hub with high logistical performances, limiting the planning to supply and process consequent impact assessments.
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RYBCHUK, Anatoly, Igor ZHURBA, and Yurii KRAVCHYK. "GLOBAL IMPACTS OF THE PANDEMIC CRISIS ON THE MARKET OF TRANSPORT SERVICES." Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic sciences 308, no. 4 (July 28, 2022): 319–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2022-308-4-49.

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Further expansion and deepening of globalization processes largely depends on the efficiency of functioning of such an important infrastructure element as transport. For several centuries, transport has been the leading link that connects national economies and their business entities. Transportation is a key area of the global economy that fulfills society’s vital need to move passengers, labor, and goods. It is transport that creates the basis for effective foreign and domestic trade, passenger and cargo transportation. The expansion of the scale of world trade, associated with the deepening of the international division of labor, led to the rapid growth of the transport services market, which was temporarily affected by the global pandemic. The article examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the transport services market in the pre-crisis period and in the global pandemic. The impact of the pandemic crisis on all segments of the global passenger and freight industry is analyzed. It is established that a number of peculiarities can be traced in the functioning of structural elements of the transport market in the conditions of COVID-19: secondly, rail transport services have been significantly reduced due to severe quarantine restrictions, reduced train traffic and a global decline in production; third, declining trade and supply chain disruptions have led to restrictions on road transport; fourth; the demand for passenger air transportation decreased the most during the analyzed period; fifth, the global market for pipeline transport services has been slightly affected by co-constraints and is showing strong growth. The gradual recovery of all segments of the global transport services market has been confirmed.
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Beifert, Anatoli. "Role of Air Cargo and Road Feeder Services for Regional Airports – Case Studies from the Baltic Sea Region." Transport and Telecommunication Journal 17, no. 2 (June 1, 2016): 87–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ttj-2016-0008.

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Abstract Although airports play an important role the global and European economies, according to the new guidelines of the EU Commission on the new state aid rules for a competitive aviation industry (EC, 2014), it will be more difficult for unprofitable airports, to get financial public subsidies in the future. The Commission noted that the majority of regional airports experience severe problems to cover their operative costs, resulting from among other things from overlapping of airports’ catchment areas. The main objective of the above mentioned measures is not to close the regional airports, but to motivate them to operate on cost efficient, profitable and more flexible basis, stating however that and that the most inefficient airports will be still closed. In order face upcoming challenges, the regional airports shall reconsider their future development plans. Traditionally, the airports including small and regional airports focus on the passenger traffic and thus, the possible benefits and opportunities of the air cargo market are totally underestimated or even completely ignored. Most regional airports in the Baltic Sea region act totally isolated and do not have a clear picture of the current situation on the international air cargo market today, its future perspectives and sustainable development plans remain basically hidden. There are some examples when trying to meet the market demand, the regional airports have made huge, but unfortunately unjustified investments, e.g. improving airport infrastructure, runways, etc. However, the airports’ infrastructural investments alone cannot fulfil the expected “remedy” role for the airports’ sustainability. This paper aims at investigating the positioning and the role of the regional airports in the current hub-and-spoke network, focusing on the relevance and potential of the air cargo sector for the regional airports development. The optional freight value proposition for the development of the regional airports and their possible participation in the air cargo market as a supplement instrument to generate additional revenue also by means of so-called “air trucking” services will be presented and discussed.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "International air freight services"

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Baxter, Glenn Stephen. "Restructuring Air Freight Chains: Strategic Options for Competitive Advantage." Thesis, Griffith University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/367454.

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International air freight services are a vital revenue stream for international airlines. Notwithstanding, many airlines still consider air freight as an economy of scope by-product of their passenger operations, and have, until now, restricted their air freight service offerings to airport-to-airport transportation. However, there are three key pervasive factors that have significantly influenced the international air freight industry over the past decade and which have created particular pressures for change in the strategic options developed and implemented by international airlines in air freight transportation. The first is the adoption by business of supply chain management, and more, specifically, their participation in value-driven chain structures involving transactional relationships between corporate players in logistics pathways between sellers and buyers. The second is the rapid market growth of the integrated freight carriers, such as FedEx and United Parcel Service (UPS). The integrators’ success has come from the provision of customer-focused logistics solutions, in effect, a ‘one-stop shop’, whereby they handle all aspects of the air freight transportation, from pick-up through to the final delivery to the end customer. The third relates to what Hamel (2002) has referred to as ‘strategy decay’ – in the case of international airlines the increasing inadequacy of their air freight strategies to capture and deliver value and thereby achieve competitive advantage that may have in earlier times, been more or less appropriate. This study examines how international airlines deliver and capture value in the air freight transportation of Victoria’s southern and Western Australia’s western rock lobsters to Hong Kong. These two markets were selected in order to provide different market contextual settings and because the air freight mode is extensively used by both Victorian and Western Australia-based lobster exporters, as the speed of air freight transportation is critical to these shippers ability to supply Hong Kong, Victoria’s and Western Australia’s major lobster export markets, with premium products in the fastest possible elapsed time. In order to conduct this research, it was necessary to develop a conceptual framework, which was based on insights from the transportation and strategic management literature, and, in particular, the works of Cox (2002, 2004) on power and value appropriation in supply chains, and Robinson’s (2002a, 2003, 2004, 2009) paradigm for understanding freight movement, and particularly, the role played by third party service providers in facilitating freight transportation.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Biomolecular and Physical Sciences
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Chi, King-lok Steven. "A study of the policy in air freight service provision for the future Chek Lap Kok Airport." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1994. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13781261.

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Chi, King-lok Steven, and 池敬樂. "A study of the policy in air freight service provision for the future Chek Lap Kok Airport." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1994. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31950528.

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冼澤榮 and Chak-wing Simon Sin. "International business environment: air services agreement." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1997. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31268286.

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Sin, Chak-wing Simon. "International business environment : air services agreement /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1997. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B18837414.

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Bernauw, Kristiaan C. A. "The legal aspects of international air courier and air express services /." Thesis, McGill University, 1985. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=66039.

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Salazar, Juan Carlos. "The burden of proof of the air cargo claimant under international law /." Thesis, McGill University, 1999. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=30323.

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The air cargo industry is evolving rapidly, as is its international law regime. The recent entry into force of the Montreal Protocol No. 4 and adoption of the Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air signed at Montreal on 28 May 1999 constitutes a new legal framework for air cargo claims.
Rather than offering definite answers, this thesis identifies some current and emerging issues in the law of air cargo claims, particularly those aspects that the claimant must prove. The work traces the development of the Warsaw System by writers and courts, and attempts to identify trends in the application and interpretation of the new legal framework. The evolution towards independence of the law of carriage of goods by air from other similar regimes, and the existing connections among them, are examined. When appropriate, common law and civil law solutions to some legal issues will be introduced.
Finally, the thesis concludes that conflicting decisions in this field could be avoided by adopting uniform rules to solve conflicts of laws and to interpret international carriage conventions.
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Thaker, Jitendra S. "The regulation of non-scheduled air services under bilateral air transport agreements /." Thesis, McGill University, 1990. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=59929.

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Many nations, except the United States, have long regulated non-scheduled air services under their bilateral air transport agreements. Though inconstant and largely superficial, this regulation has served to alleviate the constrictive effects of multifarious laws and regulations, enacted to keep charter expansion in check.
The (mainly) unilateral, diverse legal regimes charters have had to face have not stopped their growth. The late 1960s saw their worth: inter alia, their low fares facilitated tourism, filled empty aircraft seats, and injected some competition into a highly regulated industry.
The Americans then realised that, absent the legal uncertainty that continuously plagued charters, and fueled by free-enterprise concepts, non-scheduled US carriers, to their benefit, could move substantial national traffic. Legal certainty and competition, assured by bilateral treaties, led the United States to begin substantial bilateral regulation of charter services.
This evolution of non-scheduled air services, through bilateralism, is traced in this thesis.
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Mahapatra, Subrat. "Analysis of routing strategies in air transportation networks for express package delivery services." College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/2688.

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Thesis (M.S.C.E. ) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2005.
Thesis research directed by: Civil Engineering. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Tang, Yu-to Matthew, and 鄧汝滔. "A study of international security requirement on Hong Kong air cargo industry : development and challenges." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/199874.

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Currently, most of the research related to aviation sector of Hong Kong would focus on infrastructure perspective such as the building of 3rd runway in HKIA and the cooperation issues among airports in Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region in order to analyze the impact towards competitiveness of Hong Kong as a major international air cargo hub. However, there are not much research on air cargo industry has been done from security perspective but the recent trend of tightening international security requirement has already brought significant impact on the competitiveness of Hong Kong air logistics sector. In fact, the United States enacted the Aviation and Transportation Security Act (ATSA) after the 9/11 incident in 2001 already signaled a new era in air cargo transportation. Significant security measures have been implemented to all facilities shipping cargo to the United States and air cargo sector in Hong Kong would be included. Since most of the international air cargo that enters the United States transits through large hub facilities in Asia such as Hong Kong, there is a strong air cargo network linkage between Hong Kong and the United States. This study aims to understand the major development of international air cargo security requirement and the consequences for Hong Kong air cargo industry. This study also examines challenges of the requirement on Hong Kong air cargo industry from operational and economic perspective. An in-depth interview would be conducted to obtain industrial insights on developing recommendations on fulfilling the requirement in a cost-effective manner. This study would act as a stepping stone for further analysis on providing recommendations to facilitate the security requirement development in Hong Kong air cargo industry.
published_or_final_version
Transport Policy and Planning
Master
Master of Arts in Transport Policy and Planning
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Books on the topic "International air freight services"

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Fennes, René John. International air cargo transport services: Economic regulation and policy. [Leiden: Universiteit te Leiden, 1997.

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1943-, Gray R., ed. Purchasing international freight services. Aldershot, Hants, England: Gower, 1985.

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Moving boxes by air: The economics of international air cargo. Farnham: Ashgate, 2011.

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India) International Conference on Air Cargo Industry (2011 New Delhi. International Conference on Air Cargo Industry: Background paper. New Delhi: Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India, 2011.

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Bauchet, Pierre. Le transport international de marchandises: Air, mer, terre. Paris: Economica, 2011.

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United States. National Transportation Safety Board. Aircraft accident report: Air Continental Gates Learjet 23, Bradley International Airport, Windsor Locks, Connecticut, June 4, 1984. Washington, D.C: The Board, 1985.

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International Civil Aviation Organization. Council. Meteorological service for international air navigation: International standards and recommended practices. Montreal, Quebec, Canada: International Civil Aviation Organization, 1998.

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Council, International Civil Aviation Organization. Meteorological service for international air navigation: International standards and recommended practices. Montreal, Quebec, Canada: International Civil Aviation Organization, 1995.

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Verwer, Christiaan P. Liability for damage to luggage in international air transport. Deventer: Kluwer Law and Taxation Publishers, 1987.

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Office, General Accounting. Aviation security: Vulnerabilities and potential improvements for the air cargo system : report to congressional requesters. Washington, D.C. (P.O. Box 37050, Washington 20013): U.S. General Accounting Office, 2002.

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Book chapters on the topic "International air freight services"

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Abeyratne, Ruwantissa. "Article 6 Scheduled Air Services." In Convention on International Civil Aviation, 101–10. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00068-8_7.

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Grigorov, Vladimir, and Paula Rachel Mark. "Measuring the Sustainability of Air Navigation Services." In International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 315–34. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-43437-6_17.

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Davies, Martin, and Jiang Lin. "ZHAO Xiaofeng v. COSCO International Air Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. Dalian Branch." In Chinese Maritime Cases, 1117–30. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-63239-0_62.

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Vonitsanos, Gerasimos, Theodor Panagiotakopoulos, Andreas Kanavos, and Athanasios Tsakalidis. "Forecasting Air Flight Delays and Enabling Smart Airport Services in Apache Spark." In Artificial Intelligence Applications and Innovations. AIAI 2021 IFIP WG 12.5 International Workshops, 407–17. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79157-5_33.

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Moreira, Fernando, Ana Ferreira, João Paulo Figueiredo, and Inês Caseiro. "Indoor Air Quality, Ultrafine Particles in Offices and Services of Coimbra Health School." In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Water Energy Food and Sustainability (ICoWEFS 2021), 526–36. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75315-3_57.

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Ericksen, Polly, Philip K. Thornton, and Gerald C. Nelson. "Ruminant livestock and climate change in the tropics." In The impact of the International Livestock Research Institute, 601–38. Wallingford: CABI, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789241853.0601.

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Abstract This chapter describes the livestock production systems and resource use (land, water quantity and quality, air and ecosystem services), climate change impacts on ruminant livestock, adaptation of livestock systems to climate change, knowledge gaps on adaptation and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock.
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Sause, Markus G. R., Elena Jasiūnienė, and Rhys Pullin. "Introduction." In Structural Health Monitoring Damage Detection Systems for Aerospace, 1–4. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72192-3_1.

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AbstractThe aerospace industry is aiming for a cleaner means of transport. One way to achieve this is by making transportation lighter, thus directly improving fuel efficiency and reducing environmental impact. A further aim, of the industry, is to reduce maintenance time to lessen operating costs, which can result in a reduction of air transport costs, benefitting both passenger and freight services. Current developments to support these aims include using advanced materials, with the current generation of aerospace structures being 50% composite materials. These materials offer a weight reduction whilst maintaining adequate stiffness; however, their damage mechanics are very complex and less deterministic than those of metals. This results in an overall reduced benefit. Structures are manufactured thicker using additional material to accommodate unknown or unpredictable failure modes, which cannot be easily detected during maintenance. A way to overcome these issues is the adoption of a structural health monitoring (SHM) inspection system.
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Eleni-Maria, Papadopoulou. "Logistics Service Providers." In Outsourcing Management for Supply Chain Operations and Logistics Service, 52–77. IGI Global, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-2008-7.ch004.

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Supply chain complexity is reflected through the existence of multiple logistics service providers (LSPs). The decision on the appropriate logistics partner is considered significant for the chain efficiency. The managerial problem relies in the providers’ efforts to broaden their service portfolio, thus erasing controversies concerning the identification of their core competences. This issue mainly lies in the selection among an International Freight Forwarder (IFF), a Third Party Logistics Provider (3PL), and a Fourth Party Logistics Provider (4PL). The aim of this chapter is to provide an overview of the characteristics and services offered by the LSPs, present the benefits and drawbacks from the collaboration with each entity, and finally form a framework regarding their representative features. The framework is articulated based on literature review and aims to provide a guideline to the interested chain members, enabling them to assess their needs against the LSPs’ characteristics.
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Budd, Lucy, and Stephen Ison. "Air Freight Marketing." In International Encyclopedia of Transportation, 369–73. Elsevier, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-102671-7.10271-4.

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Debbage, Keith, and Neil Debbage. "Air Freight Logistics." In International Encyclopedia of Transportation, 361–68. Elsevier, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-08-102671-7.10270-2.

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Conference papers on the topic "International air freight services"

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Yang, Ta-Hui, and Chen-Cheng Chen. "Air freight service network design for stochastic demand." In 2009 IEEE/INFORMS International Conference on Service Operations, Logistics and Informatics (SOLI). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/soli.2009.5203941.

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Antić, Slobodan. "Responding to the Impact of the COVID-19 on Food Value Chains – Case of Industry Practice." In XV. International Conference on Logistics in Agriculture 2021. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-538-2.1.

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Supply chain operations in food value chains includes all logistics activities that enable the flow of agriculture inputs, outputs, and agriculture-related services, such as transportation, warehousing, procurement, packaging and inventory management. The efficacy of logistics is critical for the agri-food sector, in particular in times of crisis. Disruptions can cause adverse impacts on the quality of food, freshness, its safety, and can impede access to markets and affordability. The COVID-19 pandemic caused that the governments around the world implemented different measures, including a reduction in the transportation of goods (ground, ocean freight and air freight), as well as migration of labour domestically and internationally. In order to stop the transmission of the disease workers are less available in transportation systems because restrictions across borders. These issues induce disruptions in the logistics of the food supply chains. The contemporary business environment in COVID-19 pandemic environment imposes an increased need for the development of decision-support tools. The Shadow IT solution will be described on the example of the inventory control model for frozen fruit wholesale, implemented as a spreadsheet application.
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Rownd, Ken, and Darrell Iler. "Estimating Economic Benefits for Improved Bulk-Commodity Suspensions." In ASME 2001 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2001/rtd-25705.

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Abstract The Association of American Railroads (AAR) has sponsored an ongoing program to solicit new suspension technologies for commodity specific freight services. The process has involved assessing needs, publishing a performance specification, soliciting new designs, computer modeling, and evaluating prototypes by test and by economic models. Since 1999, this program has focused on better economic performance for bulk commodity service. Modest changes to familiar bulk commodity truck designs have resulted in significant economic benefits in railroad service.
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Ion, Amalia-Elena, and Denisa-Atena Costovici. "Innovation Policy and Artificial Intelligence in the Business and Economic Transformation of the European Freight Transport Industry." In International Conference Innovative Business Management & Global Entrepreneurship. LUMEN Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18662/lumproc/ibmage2020/13.

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A knowledge-intensive company is one that employs 20% of its workforce in research and development, having to manage the unique and intellectual property of the company. The latter is part of a growth-oriented business culture, basing its operations on innovation, a factor that permits a series of advantages, including tax reliefs. Moreover, the business would, especially in the actual economic conditions, has to make use of artificial intelligence, with the scope of analysing data, employing learning algorithms for efficiency and effectiveness of operations and strategy, and predicting patterns, correlations and, ultimately, developing models and policy functions. Although, there are some constraints in the world of knowledge-intensive services, especially that of the freight transport industry, as well as in the usage and implementation of AI, consisting of the lack or limited availability of data, infrastructure limitations, data retrieval capacity, computer machine learning software etc., the advantages of using AI in the problem-solving operations of knowledge enterprises determines a client-oriented approach, the strategic concentration on the problem-solving and innovation system creation, with the simple utilization of knowledge for the generation of tangible and intangible values. The research question of the present paper collides between those concepts, and develops on the proposition of a model for the intensive usage of AI in the knowledge-intensive freight transport industry and the related policy decision-making. The article includes a regression analysis on a World Bank database correlating the logistics performance, air freight transport, and railway freight transport to economic, business, social and technology-related variables. The findings are congruent with the basic need for implementation within the freight industry of updated policy, business transformation, knowledge-intensive services and AI algorithms.
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Lonsdale, Cameron, and Steven Dedmon. "Fatigue Testing of Microalloyed AAR Class C Wheel Steel." In ASME 2006 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2006-13366.

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Railroad wheels guide a freight car along the rails while supporting mechanical loads, and also serve as the brake drum in the air brake system of a freight car. Since a 36-inch diameter freight car wheel experiences approximately 560 revolutions per mile, and since many North American freight cars accrue 100,000 miles per year in service, fatigue properties of steel are very important. Further, elevated tread temperatures resulting from tread braking are known to significantly reduce the yield strength of the wheel steel at the tread surface. This paper describes fatigue testing of AAR rim quenched Class C wheel steel manufactured with microalloy additions. Small amounts of selected alloy elements were purposely added to develop a wheel steel with improved high temperature yield strength. Rotating bending fatigue tests, conducted at a well-known professional testing laboratory, were performed at ambient and elevated temperatures using complete stress reversal (R = -1) cycling. Stress-life (S-N) curves were constructed and the microalloy steel results were compared to existing fatigue data, and to results for typical Class C steel with no microalloy additions. Past research work is briefly reviewed. Test results are discussed with emphasis on the implications for service performance of wheel steel.
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Dawson, Richard W., Darrell Iler, and Kevin Koch. "New AAR Procedure Permitting Freight Car Life Beyond 50 Years." In ASME 2005 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2005-82848.

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The Interchange Rules of the Association of American Railroads (AAR) limit the life of freight cars to 50 years from the date originally built. Recently, however, the AAR has instituted a new provision under Interchange Rule 88 that permits cars to operate for up to 65 years since their built date. The procedure incorporates two basic portions; demonstrating that the carbody has the structural integrity to last for a total life of 65 years and upgrading specific components on each car. After applying to the AAR Equipment Engineering Committee (EEC) requesting that ILS be granted to a particular group of cars, the car owner has two optional methods to demonstrate the structural integrity of the selected cars. The first option is to perform structural inspections on a specified number of representative cars and to perform a full-scale fatigue test on a test car. In place of the fatigue test, the second option is to perform structural inspections on a larger number of cars and conduct follow-up inspections every five years after receipt of approval. The physical fatigue test incorporates modern engineering best practices by utilizing finite element modeling and full-scale accelerated fatigue testing (AFT). Following the creation of a representative model, several load conditions, both real and worst-case, are then applied to determine the high-stress locations. Using instrumentation at the high-stress locations, a full-scale test is conducted with the car operating in a typical service environment. The objective of full-scale testing is to obtain real strain data and input loads produced by typical environment conditions. AFT enables the required load cycles to be applied to the test car in a dynamic test fixture in weeks or months versus years of actual service. A rapid accumulation of fatigue-damaging cycles representative of the remaining years necessary to bring the total life of the test car to 65 years are applied to the car. The requirements for the components to be replaced or upgraded under Rule 88 are similar to those for new cars and for rebuilt cars. Some components, such as air brake control valves, are to be upgraded to more recent standards. Others are to be replaced in kind with reconditioned parts. Even though the carbody is permitted to operate beyond 50 years, components must still comply with existing AAR and Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) age limits. In addition to obtaining Increased Life Status (ILS) from the AAR, the car owner must also apply to the Federal Railroad Administration for authorization to operate the cars beyond the 50-year limit of the FRA Freight Car Safety Standards. This paper will demonstrate the approval process, including AFT testing, as applied to two groups of flat cars in auto rack service, and a group of 60-foot flat cars.
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Shenhar, Joram, John L. Hill, and Mark A. Lombardo. "The Advanced Handbrake Actuator System." In ASME 2002 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2002-33244.

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State-of-the-art freight car handbrakes are manpower intensive. Setting and releasing handbrakes expose operators to safety hazards and the potential for human error exposes train operations for possible time delays, mild to severe maintenance issues and ultimately the potential for major rail accidents. In response to the need to reduce the hazard associated with freight car handbrakes, UTD has developed the Advanced Handbrake Actuator System (AHAS), a fail-safe powered handbrake device, accessible from ground level on either side of the car. The AHAS concept was developed, manufactured and demonstrated under sponsorship of the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The system is designed to replace existing handbrake wheels and provide significant improvements by offering new ways of applying or releasing the brake. Remote electronic signal, car mounted hand levered pneumatic valve, and a manual hand crank mechanism, requiring significantly less effort than that required by the state-of-the-art handbrake wheel, constitute three methods of actuation. The AHAS is comprised of a compression coil spring arranged to apply tension to the handbrake chain as its default condition. Two release systems are available. The first uses an air cylinder actuator connected in series with the spring and chain. Applying air pressure by remote or local command will compress the spring and release the handbrake. The spring may also be compressed to release the handbrake by a hand crank mechanism, accessible from ground level on either side of the car. The AHAS is equipped with a dedicated air reservoir charged with compressed air prior to departure via the train’s brake pipe. The AHAS was successfully field tested on a freight car in regular service over a period of three months and was found to be user friendly and safe, logging over 120 successful operations.
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DOBRE, Florin, Amza MAIR, Alexandru VASILESCU, and Anna KANT. "ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRANSPORT FLEET AT EU LEVEL." In International Management Conference. Editura ASE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/imc/2021/02.18.

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The general transport network in the European Union is of particular importance, especially given the operation of the two directives on the free movement of goods and services within the European Community. Transport is a strategic sector of the EU economy, which directly affects the daily lives of all EU citizens. Transportation services provide about 11 million jobs. They are a cornerstone of European integration, with fully interconnected and sustainable transport networks being a necessary condition for the completion and proper functioning of the European single market. The transport of goods and goods is carried out by road, rail, sea and air. Each of these transport routes has particularities that are suitable, depending on the group of goods, for the movement of goods. The European Union has adopted its own strategy aimed at developing and harmonizing the transport network in each Member State, so as to achieve a single transport network at Union level. In this context, using the data provided by Eurostat, the authors carry out a detailed analysis of the perspective of transport developments in the European Union. The volume of passenger and freight transport in the EU has increased in recent decades and this trend is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace. Transport is an area of shared EU competence, which means that Member States can exercise their own competence, unless the EU has formulated common transport policies and strategies.
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Sitarčík, Adam, and Alena Novák Sedláčková. "International regulation of air freight." In Práce a štúdie. University of Žilina, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.26552/pas.z.2021.1.26.

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This article is focused on the issue of air freight, its development, importance and current status. The article defines general knowledge in the field of civil cargo air transport as history, current global events, current measures due to the pandemic of the spread of Covid-19 and the division of airlines according to business models. It also includes the periodic development of legislation in the field of air transport freight, global and European legislation, as well as air alliances and organizations in civil aviation. The article deals with contracts in the field of air freight transport such as transport contract and agent contract. Conclusion is focused on the importance of the today's study materials in the field of air freight and also declared that this article and the bachelor thesis could stands out as a supplementary material for the professional public, which will enable them to deepen their knowledge in the field of air freight.
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Roffilli, Matteo, Vittorio Maniezzo, and Marco Boschetti. "GRID-based services for optimized freight distribution." In 2006 International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management. IEEE, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2006.320523.

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Reports on the topic "International air freight services"

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Dudoit, Alain, Molivann Panot, and Thierry Warin. Towards a multi-stakeholder Intermodal Trade-Transportation Data-Sharing and Knowledge Exchange Network. CIRANO, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.54932/mvne7282.

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The performance of supply chains used to be mainly the concern of academics and professionals who studied the potential efficiencies and risks associated with this aspect of globalisation. In 2021, major disruptions in this critical sector of our economies are making headlines and attracting the attention of policy makers around the world. Supply chain bottlenecks create shortages, fuel inflation, and undermine economic recovery. This report provides a transversal and multidisciplinary analysis of the challenges and opportunities regarding data interoperability and data sharing as they relate to the ‘Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Trade Corridor’ (GLSLTC)’s intermodal transportation and trade data strategy. The size and scope of this trade corridor are only matched by the complexity of its multimodal freight transportation systems and growing urbanization on both sides of the Canada-US border. This complexity is exacerbated by the lack of data interoperability and effective collaborations between the different stakeholders within the various jurisdictions and amongst them. Our analytical work relies on : 1) A review of the relevant documentation on the latest challenges to supply chains (SC), intermodal freight transport and international trade, identifying any databases that are to be used.; 2) A comparative review of selected relevant initiatives to give insights into the best practices in digital supply chains implemented in Canada, the United States, and the European Union.; 3) Interviews and discussions with experts from Transport Canada, Statistics Canada, the Canadian Centre on Transportation Data (CCTD) and Global Affairs Canada, as well as with CIRANO’s research community and four partner institutions to identify databases and data that they use in their research related to transportation and trade relevant data availabilities and methodologies as well as joint research opportunities. Its main findings can be summarized as follow: GLSLTC is characterized by its critical scale, complexity, and strategic impact as North America’s most vital trade corridor in the foreseeable further intensification of continental trade. 4% of Canadian GDP is attributed to the Transportation and Logistics sector (2018): $1 trillion of goods moved every year: Goods and services imports are equivalent to 33% of Canada’s GDP and goods and services exports equivalent to 32%. The transportation sector is a key contributor to the achievement of net-zero emissions commitment by 2050. All sectors of the Canadian economy are affected by global supply chain disruptions. Uncertainty and threats extend well beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic. “De-globalization” and increasing supply chains regionalization pressures are mounting. Innovation and thus economic performance—increasingly hinges on the quantity and quality of data. Data is transforming Canada’s economy/society and is now at the center of global trade “Transport data is becoming less available: Canada needs to make data a priority for a national transportation strategy.” * “How the Government of Canada collects, manages, and governs data—and how it accesses and shares data with other governments, sectors, and Canadians—must change.”
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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Monetary Policy Report - January 2022. Banco de la República, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2022.

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Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.
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