Journal articles: 'International Election Monitoring'

1

Simpser, Alberto, and Daniela Donno. "Can International Election Monitoring Harm Governance?" Journal of Politics 74, no. 2 (April 2012): 501–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002238161100168x.

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ANGLIN, D. G. "INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORING: THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE." African Affairs 97, no. 389 (October 1, 1998): 471–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.afraf.a007967.

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Ismail, Muhamad Takiyuddin, and Norazam Mohd Noor. "Resisting International Election Observation Through Election Visit Programmes: The Case of Malaysia." Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 39, no. 2 (July 29, 2020): 310–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1868103420930022.

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Malaysia has not invited International Election Monitoring Organisations (IEMOs) for any of its general elections (GEs) since 1990 and so is numbered among those states that defy this international norm. Although the elections under the Barisan Nasional (BN) regime displayed a wide variety of manipulative practices, the BN was able, due to its position as a semi-authoritarian nature, its strategic importance and its lack of dependence on foreign aid, to successfully resist demands for the presence of IEMOs. The prospects for IEMOs has been further reduced, since the GE 2013, by the Election Commission’s “election visit programme” (EVP), adopted to compensate for the absence of IEMOs. Following Malaysia’s historic GE 2018, a widespread consensus has developed that though Malaysia should not abandon its own EVP programme, it should readopt this international norm by inviting IEMOs. This is especially needed considering the amateurish state of domestic election monitoring in Malaysia.

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Wu, Xiang. "Dual Effects of Democracy Promotion: Evidence from International Election Observation Data of Myanmar’s General Elections." Chinese Journal of International Review 02, no. 02 (December 2020): 2050012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2630531320500122.

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Since the 1990s, international election observation, as an important way of election monitoring, has become increasingly active on the international stage. By inviting international election observation missions (IEOMs) to conduct election monitoring, the nascent democracies not only hope to promote democracy and enhance its legitimacy, but also tend to reduce international sanctions and improve relations with the West. The international election observation of Myanmar’s two general elections in 2010 and 2015 is an important sample to observe Myanmar’s democratic process and its interaction with the international community. IEOMs in Myanmar have witnessed diverse situations from being rejected to being invited, from being independently observed to participating and from slamming elections to praising them. In the 2015 general elections, IEOMs had an important impact on Myanmar’s democratic transition, but in essence, their limitations were only surrounding the election-related matters. The work done by many international election observation organizations has been limited to the procedural level of democracy, and could not help Myanmar to further the institution-building. General elections in Myanmar are due in 2020. Currently, many IEOMs have traveled to Myanmar for election observation, but it is yet to be decided whether it will contribute to good governance in Myanmar.

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Evans, Mechelle. "The Role of International Organizations in Election Monitoring." Proceedings of the ASIL Annual Meeting 82 (1988): 559–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s027250370009580x.

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Jason, Karen J. "The Role of International Organizations in Election Monitoring." Proceedings of the ASIL Annual Meeting 82 (1988): 561–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0272503700095811.

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YUKAWA, TAKU. "Why Election Monitoring Does Not Always Lead to Democratization: from the Perspective of Information on the International Standards of Electoral Integrity." Japanese Journal of Political Science 19, no. 2 (May 22, 2018): 293–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1468109918000087.

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AbstractThis paper theoretically presents a new structure from the perspective of information on international standards with regards to the actual impact that election monitoring has on political change. Specifically, there is the point of view that after the election monitoring, a report is published, and as a result information relating to international standards of electoral integrity becomes clear in the countries subject to monitoring. Then if it becomes clear, for example, to one country that it is unable to meet the standards required by the international community then that country might abandon trying to meeting international requirements and its inclination toward authoritarianism might strengthen. Therefore, the clarification of information on the international standards of fair electoral integrity as a result of election monitoring could result in a shift toward authoritarianism. Through a case study, this paper shows that new interpretations of democratization in Africa can be advanced by its theoretical framework. Many African countries started to get rid of one-party systems or military dictatorships in the 1990s and to introduce multi-party elections. As a result, they held founding elections. What is often pointed out is that compared to the founding elections, the degree of fraud increased at the second elections. Although there has been no appropriate explanation, this paper suggests a theoretical explanation for this puzzling trend.

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van Aaken, Anne, and Richard Chambers. "Accountability and Independence of International Election Observers." International Organizations Law Review 6, no. 2 (2009): 541–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/157237409x477699.

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AbstractInternational election monitoring has become ever more important in the national as well as the international context. Plenty of (regional) International Organizations (and NGOs) send Election Observers Missions (EOMs) to countries in order to assess the quality of their democratic process and elections. Whereas the influence of EOMs is largely undisputed, their independence, impartiality and accountability have been less discussed. This paper describes the legal set-up of EOMs in order to assess their independence and accountability. It also uses accountability mechanisms as discussed in international law scholarship (ILA Report and the Global Administrative Law project) in order to analyze the accountability mechanisms currently in place for EOMs.

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Kelley, Judith. "The More the Merrier? The Effects of Having Multiple International Election Monitoring Organizations." Perspectives on Politics 7, no. 1 (February 12, 2009): 59–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592709090094.

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As the pressure to invite international election monitors rose at the end of the Cold War, states refused to grant the United Nations a dominant role. Thus, today multiple intergovernmental, regional, and international non-governmental organizations often monitor the same elections with equal authority. This article examines the costs and benefits of this complex regime to highlight some possible broader implications of regime complexity. It argues that the availability of many different organizations facilitates action that might otherwise have been blocked for political reasons. Furthermore, when different international election monitoring agencies agree, their consensus can bolster their individual legitimacy as well as the legitimacy of the international norms they stress, and thus magnify their influence on domestic politics. Unfortunately the election monitoring example also suggests that complex regimes can engender damaging inter-organizational politics and that the different biases, capabilities, and standards of organizations sometime can lead organizations to outright contradict each other or work at cross-purposes.

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Amoah, Michael. "Sleight is right: Cyber control as a new battleground for African elections." African Affairs 119, no. 474 (September 26, 2019): 68–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adz023.

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Abstract Sleight of hand in manipulating the computation of results has become the new might for deciding who wins presidential elections. It appears that whoever controls the computation exercises a right to take advantage and win, and whoever loses or relinquishes control of the computation loses the election. As incumbents do not want to be identified with direct interference or rigging, hacking has become an alternative means. This raises a serious challenge for election management bodies (EMBs) and a new frontier for international observation. As electronic data management has become a key battleground, international observers cannot restrict their monitoring to the manual process alone. However, individual states may have data sensitivity concerns about granting electronic monitoring access to partisan international observers. Institutionalizing internationally agreed protocols that would allow real-time monitoring of EMBs’ computer systems by international observers or forensic audits of any stage of the electoral process to investigate interference, manipulation, hacking, and counter claims, is now a necessity. At the same time, the extent to which international monitors can be trusted to be non-partisan is of equal importance and could reduce forum shopping over time.

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RIM, YEJOON. "Two Governments and One Legitimacy: International Responses to the Post-Election Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire." Leiden Journal of International Law 25, no. 3 (July 30, 2012): 683–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0922156512000349.

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AbstractThis article examines international responses to the post-election crisis in Côte d'Ivoire, where two distinct governments were established due to contradiction between the election results proclaimed domestically and those certified by the internationally entrusted authority observing the election. Between two competing authorities, the international community stood firmly in favour of the internationally recognized president-elect as ‘legitimate authority’ while acting against the opponent whom they considered to hold ‘illegitimate authority’. Considering the principle of democracy as the underlying rationale grounding the international responses, this article identifies three mechanisms that incorporate and thus promote the principle of democracy: international election monitoring as setting mechanism, international representation as consolidating mechanism, and international intervention as enforcing mechanism. In accordance with these analyses, the current stage of democracy in international legal discourse is queried, particularly the democratic entitlement of a government in relation to determination of its international legitimacy.

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Kelley, Judith. "D-Minus Elections: The Politics and Norms of International Election Observation." International Organization 63, no. 4 (October 2009): 765–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818309990117.

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AbstractAs international election monitors have grown active worldwide, their announcements have gained influence. Sometimes, however, they endorse highly flawed elections. Because their leverage rests largely on their credibility, this is puzzling. Understanding the behavior of election monitors is important because they help the international community to evaluate the legitimacy of governments and because their assessments inform the data used by scholars to study democracy. Furthermore, election monitors are also particularly instructive to study because the variety of both intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations that observe elections makes it possible to compare them across many countries and political contexts. This study uses a new dataset of 591 international election-monitoring missions. It shows that despite their official mandate to focus on election norms, monitors do not only consider the elections' quality; their assessments also reflect the interests of their member states or donors as well as other tangential organizational norms. Thus, even when accounting as best as possible for the nature and level of irregularities in an election, monitors' concerns about democracy promotion, violent instability, and organizational politics and preferences are associated with election endorsement. The study also reveals differences in the behavior of intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations and explains why neither can pursue their core objectives single-mindedly.

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Bader, Max. "Crowdsourcing election monitoring in the 2011–2012 Russian elections." East European Politics 29, no. 4 (December 2013): 521–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2013.818979.

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Hyde, Susan D. "Experimenting in Democracy Promotion: International Observers and the 2004 Presidential Elections in Indonesia." Perspectives on Politics 8, no. 2 (June 2010): 511–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592710001222.

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Randomized field experiments have gained attention within the social sciences and the field of democracy promotion as an influential tool for causal inference and a potentially powerful method of impact evaluation. With an eye toward facilitating field experimentation in democracy promotion, I present the first field-experimental study of international election monitoring, which should be of interest to both practitioners and academics. I discuss field experiments as a promising method for evaluating the effects of democracy assistance programs. Applied to the 2004 presidential elections in Indonesia, the random assignment of international election observers reveals that even though the election was widely regarded as democratic, the presence of observers had a measurable effect on votes cast for the incumbent candidate, indicating that such democracy assistance can influence election quality even in the absence of blatant election-day fraud.

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Martselyak, O. V., and M. O. Martselyak. "The place and role of official observers from foreign states and international organizations in elections: the experience of Ukraine and foreign countries." Uzhhorod National University Herald. Series: Law, no. 63 (August 9, 2021): 70–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.24144/2307-3322.2021.63.13.

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The article states that formation of representative state and local self-governmental authorities is an important stage of state formation. And the legitimacy of both their conduct and the representative public authorities in Ukraine depends on the extent to which it will be carried out within the framework of the election legislation and the extent to which the domestic legislator will provide anti-fraud factors and safeguards against mass violations of various elections. National and foreign practice proves that the institution of election monitoring that is represented by various observers who contribute to the conduct of election campaigns on a democratic basis in accordance with the electoral standards developed by the international community, is rather effective in this respect. In Ukraine, the status of official observers is granted to: 1) official observers from candidates, parties (organizations of parties) - subjects of the election process, 2) official observers from public organizations which are duly authorized to have official observers in the relevant elections, 3) official observers from foreign states and international organizations who can observe the election process. The Electoral Code of Ukraine defines the status of official observers differently, in particular, official observers from foreign states and international organizations are not recognized as subjects of the election process. However, this does not diminish their role in monitoring the electoral process in Ukraine by the legality of the actions of its subjects. The introduction of the institution of official observers from foreign states and international organizations is seen as expression of trust between states and as evidence of the intention of these countries and international organizations to contribute to the democratization of the electoral process in the world. The paper reveals the legal nature of official observers from foreign states and international organizations, highlights the standards of legal status of official observers from foreign states and international organizations developed by international organizations, considers national and foreign experience of legal regulation of their status and substantiates provisions on necessity for improvement of national electoral legislation on this basis.

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Feinberg, Richard, and Arturo Santa-Cruz. "International Election Monitoring, Sovereignty, and the Western Hemisphere: The Emergence of an International Norm." Foreign Affairs 85, no. 3 (2006): 164. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20032005.

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17

Hyde, Susan D. "Catch Us If You Can: Election Monitoring and International Norm Diffusion." American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 2 (February 24, 2011): 356–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00508.x.

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18

Little, Andrew T. "Fraud and Monitoring in Non-competitive Elections." Political Science Research and Methods 3, no. 1 (September 23, 2014): 21–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2014.9.

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This article develops a game-theoretic model that reconciles three facts: (1) fraud is pervasive in non-competitive elections, (2) domestic and international monitoring of elections have become nearly universal and (3) incumbent regimes often invite monitoring and still cheat. The incumbent regime commits fraud to manipulate the information generated by a non-competitive election before a political interaction with some audience. The audience expects fraud, so the incumbent commits fraud because she would appear weak if not doing so. Increasing the visibility of fraud with monitoring is valuable because it lowers the equilibrium level of costly fraud without changing how popular the incumbent appears. The core results hold under multiple extensions, which produce a rich set of comparative static results.

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OFOSU, GEORGE KWAKU. "Do Fairer Elections Increase the Responsiveness of Politicians?" American Political Science Review 113, no. 4 (August 2, 2019): 963–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055419000479.

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Leveraging novel experimental designs and 2,160 months of Constituency Development Fund (CDF) spending by legislators in Ghana, I examine whether and how fairer elections promote democratic responsiveness. The results show that incumbents elected from constituencies that were randomly assigned to intensive election-day monitoring during Ghana’s 2012 election spent 19 percentage points more of their CDFs during their terms in office compared with those elected from constituencies with fewer monitors. Legislators from all types of constituencies are equally present in parliament, suggesting that high levels of monitoring do not cause politicians to substitute constituency service for parliamentary work. Tests of causal mechanisms provide suggestive evidence that fairer elections motivate high performance through incumbents’ expectations of electoral sanction and not the selection of better candidates. The article provides causal evidence of the impact of election integrity on democratic accountability.

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Jr, Henry Munson. "International Election Monitoring: A Critique Based on One Monitor's Experience in Morocco." Middle East Report, no. 209 (1998): 36. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3012734.

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Sule, Babayo, Usman Sambo, Abdulkadir Ahmed, and Muhammad Yusuf. "Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room (NCSSR) and Electioneering Process in Nigeria (2015–2019)." SAGE Open 11, no. 2 (April 2021): 215824402110067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21582440211006708.

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Civil society organizations have played a pivotal role in democratization process in Nigeria since the advent of the Fourth Republic. They have greatly helped in the success of the 2015 and 2019 General Elections through pre-election, during election, and in post-election monitoring and advocacy. This article, therefore, examined the role of the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room (NCSSR) in improving the election in Nigeria during the 2015 and 2019 General Elections. While many civil societies flourished recently in Nigeria, their role toward democratization and facilitating credible election remain insignificant until in the 2015 and 2019 General Elections where their activities helped immensely the process of a credible election. A Civil Society as the Third Tier of Government framework was adopted as a theoretical explanation of the context of the work. The research used a qualitative case study method of data collection where informants consisting of members of NCSSR, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and academicians were selected for the interview and Focus Group Discussion. The total number selected was 16 from the three identified categories. The research discovered that the NCSSR aided the process and fairness of the 2015 and 2019 General Elections through proper monitoring, civic voter education, active collaboration with electoral body (INEC), and collaboration with international donor agencies through what they called “Civil Society Situation Room” which consist of more than 60 registered civil societies. The research recommends that civil societies should be empowered with constitutional backing and independent funding to enable them carry out their responsibilities adequately. Also, the article recommends that the electoral body (INEC) should liaise more and cooperate with civil societies to enable them conduct good and credible elections in future.

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Lewis-Beck, Michael S. "Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 145–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00178.x.

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To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets and statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history and politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France and the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modelling seems a promising method for forecasting elections.

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Roussias, Nasos, and Rubén Ruiz-Rufino. "“Tying incumbents' hands”: The effects of election monitoring on electoral outcomes." Electoral Studies 54 (August 2018): 116–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.005.

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Jockers, Heinz, Dirk Kohnert, and Paul Nugent. "The successful Ghana election of 2008: a convenient myth?" Journal of Modern African Studies 48, no. 1 (February 3, 2010): 95–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022278x09990231.

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ABSTRACTGhana's 2008 election has been hailed by national and international observers as a model for Africa. The perception of success has prevailed despite persistent concerns about an inflated voters' register and electoral fraud perpetrated by the two major parties, the NPP and NDC, in their strongholds in the Ashanti and Volta Regions respectively. Electoral malpractice in Ghana's virtual two-party system could acquire a decisive importance as a ‘third force’, representing an even more important factor than the smaller opposition parties. Unfortunate diplomatic and technocratic biases in election monitoring, combined with a reluctance on the part of the responsible authorities to investigate what appears to be a long history of fraudulent voting, amounts to a dangerous time bomb of unresolved conflict which could detonate in future elections.

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Bader, Max. "Disinformation in Elections." Security and Human Rights 29, no. 1-4 (December 12, 2018): 24–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/18750230-02901006.

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In recent years there has been increasing attention to the potentially disruptive influence of disinformation on elections. The most common forms of disinformation in elections include the dissemination of ‘fake news’ in order to discredit opponents or to influence the voting process, the falsification or manipulation of polling data, and the use of fake election monitoring and observation. This article presents an overview of the phenomenon of disinformation in elections in both democratic and undemocratic environments, and discusses measures to reduce its scope and negative impact.

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Lean, Sharon F. "Democracy Assistance to Domestic Election Monitoring Organizations: Conditions for Success." Democratization 14, no. 2 (April 2007): 289–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13510340701245835.

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Schleiter, Petra, and Valerie Belu. "Electoral incumbency advantages and the introduction of fixed parliamentary terms in the United Kingdom." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 20, no. 2 (January 4, 2018): 303–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148117739858.

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Can fixing the parliamentary term be expected to reduce electoral incumbency advantages? The United Kingdom’s 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act aims to prevent incumbents from scheduling early elections for political benefit. Yet, the view that flexible election timing gives incumbents an unfair advantage remains contested. The literature on opportunistic election calling—including the signalling effects of this strategy and the competence of governments that select it—lends support to both sides in the debate. This article examines how far the divergent arguments apply in the United Kingdom. Using observed outcomes and a potential outcomes approach, we investigate to what effect incumbents have used election timing. Our results suggest that governments can improve their re-election chances when they have discretion to time elections to favourable circumstances instead of facing voters at set intervals when conditions may not be advantageous. Fixed parliamentary terms are likely to reduce that incumbency advantage significantly.

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Fisher, Justin, David Denver, and Gordon Hands. "Unsung Heroes: Constituency Election Agents in British General Elections." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 8, no. 4 (November 2006): 569–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2006.00238.x.

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Kavakli, Kerim Can, and Patrick M. Kuhn. "Dangerous Contenders: Election Monitors, Islamic Opposition Parties, and Terrorism." International Organization 74, no. 1 (November 11, 2019): 145–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002081831900033x.

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AbstractHow do international observers decide whether to criticize or condone electoral fraud in a country? We argue that this decision depends on the identity of the victims of electoral fraud. A monitoring organization is more likely to overlook fraud committed against groups that are deemed dangerous by its sponsor. Based on this insight, we hypothesize that in the post-Cold War era election monitors are more tolerant of fraud against Islamic challengers, especially when Islamic movements are perceived as a threat to political stability. In support of our hypothesis, we find that outside monitors are more likely to endorse an election in countries with an Islamic opposition party and an ongoing Islamist terrorist campaign. Furthermore, we find that the effect is driven by Western monitoring organizations and becomes stronger after the September 11 attacks. Our findings provide a simple yet powerful insight: the calculus of outside observers depends not only on who they wish to see in power, but also who they want to keep from power.

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Sanders, Anna, and Rosalind Shorrocks. "All in this together? Austerity and the gender-age gap in the 2015 and 2017 British general elections." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 21, no. 4 (September 8, 2019): 667–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148119864699.

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The 2010–2015 Conservative-led Coalition’s austerity policies hit women financially harder than men. However, contrary to expectations at the time, the Conservatives still gained more support from women than men on average in the 2015 general election. We examine the impact of austerity on vote choice in the 2015 and 2017 general elections through analysis of Labour and Conservative economic policy in conjunction with data from the British Election Study’s face-to-face post-election surveys. The expectation that women should be particularly anti-austerity and thus less supportive of the Conservative Party does hold for younger women, who were especially pessimistic relative to their male peers and older age groups about their living costs, household finances, the economy, and the National Health Service in both elections. However, this does not hold for older women, who were protected by the Coalition’s policies on pensions and were more similar to men in their assessment of their economic situation.

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Borisyuk, Roman, Galina Borisyuk, Colin Rallings, and Michael Thrasher. "Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 199–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00182.x.

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Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.

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Bélanger, Éric, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Richard Nadeau. "A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 191–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00181.x.

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Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome.

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Devadevan, Manu V. "Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observation Works, and Why It Often Fails by Judith G. Kelley." Human Rights Review 16, no. 4 (October 2, 2015): 405–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12142-015-0383-1.

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Alter, Karen J., and Sophie Meunier. "The Politics of International Regime Complexity." Perspectives on Politics 7, no. 1 (February 12, 2009): 13–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592709090033.

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The increasing density of international regimes has contributed to the proliferation of overlap across agreements, conflicts among international obligations, and confusion regarding what international and bilateral obligations cover an issue. This symposium examines the consequences of this “international regime complexity” for subsequent politics. What analytical insights can be gained by thinking about any single agreement as being embedded in a larger web of international rules and regimes? Karen Alter and Sophie Meunier's introductory essay defines international regime complexity and identifies the mechanisms through which it may influence the politics of international cooperation. Short contributions analyze how international regime complexity affects politics in specific issue areas: trade (Christina Davis), linkages between human rights and trade (Emilie Hafner-Burton), intellectual property (Laurence Helfer), security politics (Stephanie Hofmann), refugee politics (Alexander Betts), and election monitoring (Judith Kelley). Daniel Drezner concludes by arguing that international regime complexity may well benefit the powerful more than others.

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van der Eijk, Cees. "Election Forecasting: A Sceptical View." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 210–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00183.x.

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Pattie, Charles, Todd Hartman, and Ron Johnston. "Incumbent parties, incumbent MPs and the effectiveness of constituency campaigns: Evidence from the 2015 UK general election." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 19, no. 4 (August 9, 2017): 824–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148117718710.

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Parties’ local campaign efforts can yield electoral dividends in plurality elections; in general, the harder they campaign, the more votes they receive. However, this is not invariably the case. Different parties’ campaigns can have different effects. What is more, the particular status of a candidacy can also influence how effective the local campaign might be. Analyses of constituency campaigning at the 2015 UK General Election reveal inter-party variations in campaign effectiveness. But looking more closely at how a party was placed tactically in a seat prior to the election, and at whether sitting MPs stood again for their party or retired, reveals distinct variations in what parties stand to gain from their local campaigns in different circumstances.

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Van Donge, Jan Kees. "The EU Observer Mission to the Zambian Elections 2001: The Politics of Election Monitoring as the Construction of Narratives." Commonwealth & Comparative Politics 46, no. 3 (June 24, 2008): 296–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14662040802176608.

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Febriansyah, Muhammad, Muhamad Takiyuddin Ismail, and Norazam Mohd Noor. "Competing not complementing: KPU, Bawaslu, and the dynamic of election monitoring in PEMILU 2019." Asian Journal of Political Science 28, no. 3 (July 14, 2020): 275–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02185377.2020.1781670.

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Fisher, Justin, and Yohanna Sällberg. "Electoral integrity – The winner takes it all? Evidence from three British general elections." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 22, no. 3 (March 17, 2020): 404–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148120912668.

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Studies of electoral integrity typically focus on electoral evaluators (expert surveys), electoral consumers (electors) and, occasionally, electoral producers (electoral administrators). Using a unique new data set collected at the British general elections of 2010, 2015 and 2017, this article examines evaluations of electoral integrity among a previously unresearched group of electoral users – the election agents of candidates standing for election. Using measures of both negative and positive electoral integrity, the article models explanations of users’ evaluations, focusing on the agent characteristics, geography and electoral status of the district or constituency. It shows that evaluations of electoral integrity vary significantly and highlights both that questions of electoral integrity are more localised than widespread, and that despite the significant impact of winner/loser effects, issues of electoral integrity are strongly related to the urban characteristics of an electoral district. In so doing, it makes a significant contribution to the literature on electoral integrity.

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Trevino, Wendy. "(Fall 2018) Election Season." Capitalism Nature Socialism 30, no. 4 (May 21, 2019): 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10455752.2019.1617827.

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Pratt, Tyler. "Deference and Hierarchy in International Regime Complexes." International Organization 72, no. 3 (2018): 561–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818318000164.

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AbstractHow do states resolve jurisdictional conflicts among international institutions? In many issue areas, global governance is increasingly fragmented among multiple international organizations (IOs). Existing work argues this fragmentation can undermine cooperation as different institutions adopt conflicting rules. However, this perspective overlooks the potential for interinstitutional coordination. I develop a theory ofinstitutional deference: the acceptance of another IO's exercise of authority. By accepting rules crafted in another IO, member states can mitigate rule conflict and facilitate a division of labor within the regime complex. I use an original data set of over 2,000 IO policy documents to describe patterns of deference in the counterterrorism, intellectual property, and election-monitoring regime complexes. Empirical tests support two theoretical claims. First, institutional deference is indeed associated with a division of labor among institutions: IOs that defer to each other are more likely to focus their rule-making efforts on separate subissues. Second, deference is a strategic act that is shaped both by efficiency concerns and power politics. Statistical tests confirm that deference is used to efficiently pool resources among disparate organizations, and that IOs with weaker member states tend to defer to organizations with more powerful members.

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Cutts, David, Edward Fieldhouse, Kingsley Purdam, David Steel, and Mark Tranmer. "Voter Turnout in British South Asian Communities at the 2001 General Election." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 9, no. 3 (August 2007): 396–412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2006.00261.x.

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The turnout of 59.4 per cent at the 2001 general election was the lowest since 1918. It has been widely assumed that ethnic or religious minority electors are less likely to vote in general elections than white electors. Furthermore, electoral participation is regarded as both an indicator of the integration of minority communities and the quality of the democratic system. However, existing research that attempts to provide ethnic or religious specific estimates relies heavily on survey data or aggregate data. Most surveys do not overcome the problems of misreporting, non-response bias and a small sample size. Ecological estimates for minority groups are based on potentially spurious inferences from aggregate to individual data. In short, evidence of lower turnout among ethnic and religious minority electors remains inconclusive. Here we use an alternative method to gauge the level of participation among South Asian electors at the 2001 general election. This article uses evidence from complete sets of marked electoral registers from a random sample of 97 wards at the 2001 general election, analysed using names recognition software. This allows a unique analysis of electoral turnout among Britain's South Asian communities. Using religious origin to aid comparisons with other data sources, the results show turnout is as high or higher for South Asian electors than the rest of the population, but this varies by religious groups. For Hindus, turnout was significantly higher than the overall rate. Also using a multi-level logistic regression model, we find that South Asian turnout is statistically significantly higher in areas where there are more South Asians in the electorate, which is where overall turnout rates are much lower.

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Quinn, Thomas. "The British Labour Party’s leadership election of 2015." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 18, no. 4 (September 19, 2016): 759–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148116664268.

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Whiteley, Paul F. "Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 165–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00179.x.

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This article develops a forecasting model of seat shares in the House of Commons applied to general election outcomes. The model utilises past information about party seat shares, together with data from the polls gathered prior to the election, to forecast the number of seats won by the parties. Once it has been estimated the model will be used to make a forecast of the outcome of a possible general election in May 2005. The article starts by focusing on research into translating votes into seats, or the cube rule and its modifications. It then goes on to develop the forecasting model, which is based on electoral and poll data from 1945 to 2001.

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Hermwille, Lukas, and Lisa Sanderink. "Make Fossil Fuels Great Again? The Paris Agreement, Trump, and the US Fossil Fuel Industry." Global Environmental Politics 19, no. 4 (November 2019): 45–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00526.

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Theoretical advances suggest that international governance in general and the Paris Agreement in particular provide a strong signal guiding sociotechnical systems toward decarbonization. We assess this signal and its effects empirically, by examining the struggle of competing narratives as present in the communications of leading US fossil fuel industry associations and companies. The results are then discussed in the context of the national and international climate and energy policy debates in a study period from late 2014 until the announcement of withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in June 2017. We find that the Paris Agreement has institutionalized a narrative paradigm that is surprisingly resilient. While the election of Donald Trump and his climate and energy policy led to a narrative shift in the coal industry, the oil and gas industry remained conspicuously silent in its immediate response and maintained its narrative strategies despite its alignment with the Paris Agreement.

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Auel, Katrin, and Resul Umit. "Explaining MPs’ communication to their constituents: Evidence from the UK House of Commons." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 20, no. 3 (March 14, 2018): 731–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148118762280.

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Everyone agrees that members of parliaments (MPs) should keep in touch with the people they represent. Yet some MPs invest more in communication with their constituency than others. We approach this problem with data from the parliamentary communication allowance in the United Kingdom, where all MPs had the same amount of budget to reach out proactively to their electors. We base our analysis on two fundamental assumptions: that re-election is the main goal of legislators and that communication to signal trustworthiness is one way of securing their re-election. We then examine the impact of electoral prospects, constituency characteristics, and parliamentary behaviour on communication to constituents. We find evidence that, even in the absence of budgetary constraints, MPs’ constituency communication depends on challenges to their re-election.

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Fisher, Justin. "Economic Performance or Electoral Necessity? Evaluating the System of Voluntary Income to Political Parties." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 2, no. 2 (June 2000): 179–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-856x.00033.

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Whilst the public funding of political parties is the norm in western democracies, its comprehensive introduction has been resisted in Britain. Political and electoral arrangements in Britain require parties to function and campaign on a regular basis, whilst their income follows cycles largely related to general elections. This article shows that the best predictor of party income is the necessity of a well-funded general election campaign rather than party performance. As a result, income can only be controlled by parties to a limited degree, which jeopardises their ability to determine their own financial position and fulfil their functions as political parties.

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Sanders, David. "Popularity Function Forecasts for the 2005 UK General Election." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7, no. 2 (May 2005): 174–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00180.x.

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The article provides a set of contingent forecasts for the forthcoming UK general election. The forecasts are based on popularity function derived from monthly time series data covering the period 1997–2004. On most likely assumptions, the forecasts produce a clear Labour victory in the early summer of 2005, with the Liberal Democrats increasing their vote share by roughly four percentage points.

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Atkins, Judi, and John Gaffney. "Narrative, persona and performance: The case of Theresa May 2016–2017." British Journal of Politics and International Relations 22, no. 2 (March 9, 2020): 293–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369148120910985.

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A narrative and performance analysis of the period between the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election makes an empirical and theoretical contribution to understanding personalised politics at the present time. This article contends that Theresa May’s initial success proceeded from her rhetorical construction and performance of a persona founded on the archetypal healer, together with a narrative based on the myth of One Nation. However, her decision as Prime Minister to align herself with the pro-Brexit constituency and her neglect of the ‘just about managing’ called both her persona and narrative into question. The highly personalised general election campaign ensured the focus stayed on May, while the manifesto offered her a new ‘flawed’ narrative that resulted in the collapse of her early leadership image. By the time of the election, May was performing neither the narrative nor the persona; she was effectively absent from her own campaign.

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Rosenne, Shabtai. "International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea: 1996-97 Survey." International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law 13, no. 4 (1998): 487–514. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/157180898x00328.

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AbstractThis article surveys the work of the Meeting of States Parties, of the United Nations General Assembly, and of ITLOS, from the third Meeting of States Parties held in November 1995 through 1996 and 1997. The Meeting of States Parties dealing with the Tribunal's financial and administrative matters is noted. The results of the election of members of ITLOS held in August 1996 and the geographical representation in the Tribunal are explained. An account of different actions taken by the United Nations General Assembly relating to ITLOS during the period under review follows. The Tribunal's activities relating to its own internal organisation, the Tribunal's jurisdiction, and the first case submitted to it, conclude this survey.

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Journal articles on the topic 'International Election Monitoring'

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