Academic literature on the topic 'International Market Entry Strategies'

The adoption of digital communications, facilitated by Internet technology, has been among the most significant international business developments of the past 25 years. This article investigates the effect of these new technologies and the changing global business environment to understand how relational approaches to international market entry (IME) are changing in light of macro developments. Despite substantial resources in business practice dedicated to combining relational strategies in digital settings, this analysis of extant literature reveals that fewer than 3% of peer-reviewed research articles in the international marketing domain examine digital contexts. To address this gap, the authors assess 25 years of literature to provide (1) a description of the evolution of IME research; (2) a review and synthesis of pertinent literature that adopts relational, digital, and hybrid approaches to IME; (3) a taxonomy of IME strategies; and (4) directions for further research.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the theories used to study the international equity-based entry mode strategies of emerging market multinationals (EMMs) and the contribution of these studies to extant literature. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted a systematic review of the literature. A total of 73 articles were identified from key management, international business and international marketing journals published between 2000 and June 2015. Articles were analysed according to the theory(ies) used, thematic area, methodology, home/host countries studied and findings. Findings Despite the great interest around the topic of how the antecedents and outcomes of EMMs’ international entry mode strategies may challenge and amend existing theories, the findings that come out of this research mirror patterns observed in the entry mode literature in general. Whilst traditional perspectives such as internalisation theory and the OLI paradigm remain prevalent, a growing number of studies draw on institutional theory and combine multiple theoretical perspectives. Newer theories developed specifically to study EMMs (e.g., the springboard perspective) are used in only five studies and challenged to differentiate their theoretical underpinnings from extant literature. Overall, the theoretical contribution of EMM studies is simply a change in emphasis from the role of firm-specific factors towards the influence of home country institutions on entry mode strategies. The authors conclude that the literature has only made tweaks at the edge of theories with no significant changes to extant theorisations. Originality/value This is the first systematic review of the literature focusing specifically on the international equity-based entry mode strategies of EMMs.

Nowadays a progressively more dynamic and global economic environment causes a higher number of enterprises to pick an entry strategy to become international. The choice of a strategy of entry into foreign markets constitutes one of the most relevant decisions for a company, for it impacts on its performance and means it being ready to cooperate, to a greater or lesser extent, with global supply chains. The present article identifies the determining factors of the strategies of entry into international markets as implemented by Peruvian businessmen, which impact on the integration level into an international market. The companies that participated in this exploratory study have growing exportation levels within the non-traditional sector. The results allow to appreciate exporters employing entry strategies with low levels of integration, and predominantly prefer low-risk markets and high resemblance to the Peruvian market, with regards to cultural affinity and business behavior.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore market entry strategies in a high-tech successive generations (HTSGs) market, by investigating entry mode via entry timing and path differentiation and the performance outcomes of entry mode. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of building a theory from a longitudinal case study is adopted by using useful cases in a HTSGs market after constructing an integrated research framework to explore market entry mode. Different entry modes were investigated by studying entry timing and migration path of three firms’ case in logic semiconductor market. In addition, performance outcomes of different entry modes were measured and correlated with each other. Findings The results identified three major entry modes suitable for a HTSGs market. The three firms differentiated their entry modes by exploiting different entry timings from the earliest to the last and different migration paths including switching, leapfrogging and new entrance path to enter a market. First mover advantage also exists in a HTSGs market, and it was found uniquely that the financial performance denoted by entry mode outcomes was correlated with technological knowledge. Research limitations/implications This study extends the theory of extant entry strategy from general consumer or industrial market to HTSGs market, in which intense competition exits and technological innovation is important. Moreover, this study verified that the causality between early entry and positive performance was also effective in HTSGs market with a shorter duration of early entry advantage. Practical implications This study has managerial implications for firms to establish market entry strategy in HTSGs market and other markets. To become a product leader, a fast follower or a late follower, firms can differentiate their entry mode by adjusting the entry timing and migration path in the context of market and technology. Originality/value This study examined market entry strategies suitable for HTSGs market based on its unique characteristics and extended relevant theory into HTSGs market. Further, an integrated research framework, which explores the market entry mode, was constructed to facilitate further exploration of entry mode into other markets.

Date May 31, 2011 Course Name: Masters Thesis in Marketing, 4FE02E, 15 hp, Spring 2011 LinnaeusUniversity,Växjö,Sweden Program Masters in Marketing Authors: Rubaiyat Raihan 840812 Shah Azeem 761210 Tutor: Engelbert Weiss Examiner: Sarah Philipson Title of the Paper: The specificities of market entry strategies into a developing country Problem Statement: “What are the specificities of market entry strategies into a developing country?” Purpose: To understand the market entry strategy of high tech product like energy efficiency light for the developing country taking into consideration the aspects discussed under problem discussion. Delimitation: In our thesis paper, we are only discussed about the energy saving industry and more specific the light manufactures. Also, our paper is discussed only about the market entry strategies and entry barrier, not to measure the effect of it. Methodology: The project is based on primary data retrieved in connection with the theoretical framework. A qualitative approach of research and questionnaire has been considered to reach the desirable result. Conclusion: After investigating the factors of energy efficiency light industry, we can conclude that it will be a good idea for a company to expand their business in developing country as the industry and the countries have a lot of potential to offer. An Investment entry mode (Joint Venture) has been suggested. Suggestion for Further Research: This research was focused on market entry strategy and entry barriers of energy efficiency light manufacturer, not the effect of entry barriers. Therefore, the next step should be to make in order to examine the effect of the barriers discussed in this research. Key Words: International market entry strategies, energy efficiency light industry, entry modes and entry barriers.

nternational market entry strategies gained increasing importance due to globalisation. Companies became multinationals. Therefore, new challenges arose due to different market and customer requirements. One topic, which gained importance in B2B context, is customer value. Customer value can be defined as the perceived benefits a company delivers its customers in comparison to the perceived expenses. Nevertheless, no uniform definition exist. In addition to that, if there is a direct connection between B2B customer value and international market entry strategies have not been investigated yet. Therefore, this thesisprojectdeals with the influence of B2B customer value on international market entry strategies. To determine the link, following research question guides this thesis: How does B2B customer value influence international market entry strategies in Northern Europe?The research isnot only focused on Northern Europe but also on the data centre segment. The investigated countries are Norway, Ireland, UK and Finland. These countries are highly interesting for the commission partnerdue to market developments and mega trends. Furthermore, the commission partneris represented by local subsidiaries in the four countries of interest. In order to answer the research question, deep insights are generated via semi-structured interviews. Three customer groups are investigated: Data centre operator as well as owner, constructors including panel builder and system integrators as well as design consultants. The interviews are conducted either face-to-face or if necessary via telephone in the four countries of interest. The interviews include questions about B2B relationships, brand and marketing.If culture influences B2B customer value is investigated indirectly bythe questions on B2B relationship.Market intelligence questions are added in order to create a deeper understanding of the market.Furthermore, these insights also help to interpret the answers of customers. Due to the interviews, a picture of the B2B customer value in Northern Europe is created. Northern European customers value reliable suppliers who can offer quality products as well as solutions. In addition to that, the importance of global brands andmarketing of competences is determined. Due to combining the findings with the cultural dimensions of Hofstede, it is concluded that customer value differs between other countries.Hence, customer value influences international market strategies, as different customer value require distinct international market entry strategies.

The International Trade Administration reported that 70% of worldwide revenue for American businesses comes from consumers in emergent markets such as India, the Middle East, and Northern Africa. However, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a country that many American small business owners are not operating in and capitalizing on the financial opportunities that are available. The purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies American small business owners use in successful international entrepreneurship for increased revenue and operational longevity. The study population consisted of 5 American small business entrepreneurs who had succeeded operating in the UAE for at least 5 years. The resource-based view theory was the conceptual framework that grounded this study. Data collection included semistructured interviews and a review of company documents and government records. Data analysis involved coding, word clustering, and the use of qualitative data analytical software to identify patterns. Member checking of interview responses helped to strengthen the integrity of the findings. The use of methodical triangulation enabled a rich analysis and an enhanced trustworthiness of the results. The 4 key themes that emerged from the data analysis were strategic planning, understanding local culture, building relationships, and using digital platforms. Small business owners could use the key themes for the development of international entrepreneurial strategies. The findings from this study and the knowledge generated may influence positive social change by increasing local employment, improving economic conditions, and promoting the development of international business operations for American entrepreneurs.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xii, 209 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 171-181).

Globalisation has taken the world by storm by opening opportunities for new markets and easier communication. The general economic climate during the last decade is one reason to this, and the impact has resulted in internationalisation as a key strategy for survival. This has affected many kinds of industries and companies, not least new venture firms. There is today a competitive market climate where companies need to have a strategic advantage to succeed. One advantage could be to increase customer value through the selection of communication channels and sales channels, which has resulted in the following research objective: The purpose of this study is to examine how international market entry decisions based on customer perceived value can affect the choice of communication and sales channel strategies for new venture firms in a B2B context. This study has been of exploratory descriptive kind where a qualitative data collection has been conducted through in-depth interviews with five gemmologists active worldwide. The results of the research were varied since the respondents had different opinions, but some conclusions could still be made. The findings suggest the use of a multiple channel strategy regarding sales channel. The study also highlights the importance of 1) Building and cherishing customer relations, 2) Looking up potential resellers or distributors, 3) Communicating a solution and not a product and finally 4) Focus on internet advertising rather than paper and television. Since this study has been of qualitative kind, one suggestion for future research is to make a quantitative study of the same study to confirm the previously mentioned findings. These findings are due to the nature of the study only implications, but a quantitative study would make them generalizable.
Globalisering är ett område som tagit världen med storm, detta genom att förenkla kommunikation och öppna möjligheter till nya marknader. Det ekonomiska klimatet i skrivande stund är en av faktorerna som har påverkat detta, vilket har resulterat i internationalisering som en viktig strategi för överlevnad. Detta har påverkat många typer av industrier och företag, inte minst startups. Dagens konkurrenskraftiga marknadsklimat medför att företag behöver ha någon slags strategisk fördel för att lyckas. En fördel kan vara att öka kundvärdet genom val av kommunikationskanaler och försäljningskanaler, vilket lett till följande syfte för denna studie: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur marknadsbeslut baserade på kundvärde kan påverka valet av kommunikations- och försäljningskanaler i ett B2B-sammanhang. Denna studie har varit av förklarande och beskrivande slag, där en kvalitativ datainsamling har genomförts genom djupintervjuer med fem gemmologer som är aktiva på en internationell marknad. Resultaten av studien var varierade då respondenternas åsikter skildes, det gick dock trots detta att dra en del slutsatser. Resultaten indikerar att användning av en hybrid försäljningsstrategi vore optimal. Studien belyser också vikten av att 1) Bygga upp och värna om kundrelationer, 2) Söka potentiella återförsäljare eller distributörer, 3) Sälja en lösning istället för en produkt och slutligen 4) Fokusera på internetannonsering i stället för tidningar och tv. Då denna studie har varit av kvalitativt slag är ett förslag till framtida forskning att göra en kvantitativ studie av samma ämne för att bekräfta resultaten. Resultaten är i nuläget endast indikationer medans en kvantitativ studie skulle göra dem generaliserbara.

China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has greatly enhanced global interest in investment in the Chinese media market, where demand for digital content is growing rapidly. The East Asian region is positioned as a growth area in many forms of digital content and digital service industries. China is attempting to catch up and take its place as a production centre to offset challenges from neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, Taiwan is seeking to use China both as an export market and as a production site for its digital content. This research investigates entry strategies of Taiwanese digital content firms into the Chinese market. By examining the strategies of a sample of Taiwan-based companies, this study also explores the evolution of their market strategies. However, the focus is on how distinctive business practices such as guanxi are important to Taiwanese business and to relations with Mainland China. This research examines how entrepreneurs manage the characteristics of digital content products and in turn how digital content entrepreneurs adapt to changing market circumstances. This project selected five Taiwan-based digital content companies that have business operations in China: Wang Film, Artkey, CnYES, Somode and iPartment. The study involved a field trip, undertaken between November 2006 and March 2007 to Shanghai and Taiwan to conduct interviews and to gather documentation and archival reports. Six senior managers and nine experts were interviewed. Data were analysed according to Miller’s firm-level entrepreneurship theory, foreign direct investment theory, Life Cycle Model and guanxi philosophy. Most studies of SMEs have focused on free market (capitalist) environments. In contrast, this thesis examines how Taiwanese digital content firms’ strategies apply in the Chinese market. I identified three main types of business strategy: cost-reduction, innovation and quality-enhancement; and four categories of functional strategies: product, marketing, resource acquisition and organizational restructuring. In this study, I introduce the concept of ‘entrepreneurial guanxi’, special relationships that imply mutual obligation, assurance and understanding to secure and exchange favors in entrepreneurial activities. While guanxi is a feature of many studies of business in Pan-Chinese society, it plays an important mediating role in digital content industries. In this thesis, I integrate the ‘Life Cycle Model’ with the dynamic concept of strategy. I outline the significant differences in the evolution of strategy between two types of digital content companies: off-line firms (Wang Film and Artkey) and web-based firms (CnYES, Somode and iPartment). Off-line digital content firms tended to adopt ‘resource acquisition strategies’ in their initial stages and ‘marketing strategies’ in second and subsequent stages. In contrast, web-based digital content companies mainly adopted product and marketing strategies in the early stages, and would adopt innovative approaches towards product and marketing strategies in the whole process of their business development. Some web-based digital content companies also adopted organizational restructuring strategies in the final stage. Finally, I propose the ‘Taxonomy Matrix of Entrepreneurial Strategies’ to emphasise the two dimensions of this matrix: innovation, and the firm’s resource acquisition for entrepreneurial strategy. This matrix is divided into four cells: Effective, Bounded, Conservative, and Impoverished.

Mestrado em Gestão/MBA
Empresas e marcas portuguesas como o Gallo e o Delta entram nos mercados chineses há cerca de uma década. Este estudo analisa historicamente as estratégias de entrada e marketing dessas duas marcas na China, já que Gallo e Delta enfrentaram desafios tanto como marcas estrangeiras quanto como uma dieta culturalmente diferente na China. A tese adotou estruturas analíticas para discutir as operações das duas empresas na China como marcas estrangeiras. Como conclusão e análise mais aprofundada, este estudo compara as estratégias offline e online (principalmente Taobao do Alibaba) de Gallo e Delta.
Portuguese companies and brands such as Gallo olive oil and Delta café have entered the Chinese markets for around a decade. This study looks at these two brands' entry and marketing strategies in China historically, as Gallo and Delta faced challenges both as foreign brands and as culturally different diet in China. The thesis adopted analytical frameworks to discuss the two companies' operations in China as foreign brands. As a conclusion and deeper analysis, this study then compares the offline and online (Mainly Taobao from Alibaba) strategies of Gallo and Delta.
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La thèse démontre que l'environnement protectionniste en Inde a contribué à bâtir une industrie pharmaceutique solide. L'arrivée simultanée de l'Accord ADPIC et de la libéralisation économique a créé des « push factors » à la fois compétitifs et favorables, obligeant les firmes pharmaceutiques indiennes (FPI) à chercher de nouvelles voies de croissance à l’étranger. Les politiques des pays africains en faveur des génériques, l’action des organisations internationales et la nouvelle gouvernance des marchés financés par les bailleurs de fonds ont aussi induits des « pull factors » permettant aux FPI de s'engager davantage sur ces marchés. Cette thèse montre à travers le cas du Mali que le marché en Afrique de l’Ouest francophone est divisé en quatre segments – le marché public financé par l'État et par des donateurs et le marché privé formel et informel – avec des réglementations différentes. Les FPI n'utilisent que l'exportation dans ces pays, mais leurs organisations varient selon le segment dans lequel elles souhaitent opérer. Enfin, ce travail utilise l’étude du Synriam, un nouvel antipaludéen pour montrer que Ranbaxy a utilisé le partenariat avec Medicines for Malaria Venture pour développer ses capacités, accéder à de nouveaux marchés et gagner en légitimité. Cette étude met en évidence que les organisations internationales peuvent créer des barrières institutionnelles et influencer les stratégies d'entrée des firmes. En conclusion, cette thèse illustre la richesse et la complexité du marché pharmaceutique africain et démontre également que les stratégies d'entrée sur le marché et d'exploitation des FPI sont influencées par l'environnement institutionnel sous-jacent
This dissertation first shows that the early protectionist environment in India helped build a robust indigenous pharmaceutical industry. The simultaneous arrival of TRIPS and economic liberalization created both competitive and supportive push factors forcing Indian firms to look for new avenues of growth beyond national boundaries. Generic supporting policies of African countries, the action of international organizations and the new governance of donor-funded markets also acted as pull factors for Indian firms to engage in these markets.Next, taking the case of Mali, the thesis shows that the pharmaceutical market in Francophone West African countries is divided into four specific segments – government and donor-funded public and formal and informal private markets – with different regulatory characteristics. Indian firms are using only export to operate in these countries, but the organization of export varies according to the segment in which a firm intends to operate. Lastly, it takes the case of Synriam, a new antimalarial to show that Ranbaxy used the partnership with Medicines for Malaria Venture for developing capabilities, accessing new markets and gaining legitimacy. The case also reflects that international organizations may create institutional barriers and influence the market entry strategy of firms. To conclude, this thesis illustrates the richness and complexities of the African pharmaceutical market and shows that market entry and operation strategies of Indian firms are influenced by the underlying institutional environment

AbstractThis chapter covers the history of the international market development of the researched firms and in addition how these companies established agent networks, built sales subsidiaries worldwide, or enlisted partnerships, and how they reacted to constantly changing market developments requiring adjustments in their distribution networks. The early founders of Swiss SMEs engaged in extensive travel to promote their companies at a time when the transport infrastructure was still rudimentary. Distributors and agent networks were built and still maintained by smaller companies, at times expanded to include formal distribution partnerships. Subsidiary networks were the preferred choice of larger companies which had greater volumes per country markets. Sometimes, market entry was achieved by building or acquiring manufacturing operations. Cracking some of the most difficult markets, such as Japan, posed special challenges. And finally, when industry conditions changed, even well-planned distribution strategies needed to be changed.

Restoration of independence of Lithuania in 1990 led to highly successful transition from centrally planned economy to market economy within only two decades. New challenges for domestic companies came up, to be a part of internationalization and globalization. It became necessary to develop strategies for national companies to enter international markets and to make the optimal choice of entry mode. The main emphasis is put on the choice between traditional modes of market entry as casual export and new possible entry modes. Typical factors as emigration, intercultural differences etc. are analysed to show how to use domestic market weaknesses to create strengths for entry strategies.

The current article is devoted to search tools for determining the optimal solution and forming the optimal company strategy for small innovative companies in the business innovation environment of the oil and gas complex. The main area of research in the article is the reasons for the difficulties of innovative Russian entrepreneurship and its entry into the domestic market and work in this market. We also consider tools such as SWIFT-analysis of assessment and forecasting of the company's performance, the portfolio model of BCG (Boston consulting group), a multi-factor matrix for selecting strategies for the most effective planning of the company's activities, as an improved version of the Arthur D. Little model. At the same time, the study revealed that a wider range of project and strategic opportunities for planning and managing a company is formed by the production and economic matrix using SWOT analysis. Thus, based on this study, the following recommendations were formulated for beginning entrepreneurs and developers in the field of innovation: take into account and apply the strategy for small innovative enterprises according to the SWOT analysis for monitoring and forecasting upcoming events (production or economic); use marketing research tools, as well as forms for planning a product plan for the life of the company; take into account that the forecast should be based on strategic analysis, using the optimal method for specific goals, and be the starting point for developing new models and business development plans.

Purpose – the purpose of the article is to develop a strategic map for international branch campus establishment and risk management frameworks. Research methodology – the methods of interpretation and conceptualisation have been used to analyse the context of foreign market entry in higher education and develop strategic guidelines. Also, the results of previous research executed by authors on this topic have been used. Findings – the decision support model for HEIs establishing an international branch campus has been suggested. Research limitations – the main limitation of the study is the vast variety of IBCs due to its newness. However, the main aspects of establishing an IBC have been addressed and presented in a model. Practical implications – the obtained results and the decision support model will contribute to the existing internationalisation practices of higher education institutions (HEIs) considering entering new foreign markets in the form of the international branch campus. Originality/Value – the proposed decision support model is an instructional map for the top management in HEIs, contributing to the strategic and systematic approach to the international branch campus establishment

Rival markets like rideshare services, universities, and organ exchanges compete to attract participants, seeking to maximize their own utility at potential cost to overall social welfare. Similarly, individual participants in such multi-market systems also seek to maximize their individual utility. If entry is costly, they should strategically enter only a subset of the available markets. All of this decision making---markets competitively adapting their matching strategies and participants arriving, choosing which market(s) to enter, and departing from the system---occurs dynamically over time. This paper provides the first analysis of equilibrium behavior in dynamic competing matching market systems---first from the points of view of individual participants when market policies are fixed, and then from the points of view of markets when agents are stochastic. When compared to single markets running social-welfare-maximizing matching policies, losses in overall social welfare in competitive systems manifest due to both market fragmentation and the use of non-optimal matching policies. We quantify such losses and provide policy recommendations to help alleviate them in fielded systems.

20 years ago a concept of “Green Chemistry” was formulated by Paul Anastas and John Warner, aiming at an ambitious agenda to “green” chemical products and processes. Today the concept, laid down in a set of 12 principles, has found support in various arenas. This diffusion was supported by enhancements of the legislative framework; not only in the European Union. Nevertheless industry actors – whilst generally supporting the idea – still see “cost and perception remain barriers to green chemistry uptake”. Thus, the questions arise how additional incentives as well as measures to address the barriers and impediments can be provided. An analysis addressing these questions has to take into account the institutional context for the relevant actors involved in the issue. And it has to reflect the problem perception of the different stakeholders. The supply chain into which the chemicals are distributed are of pivotal importance since they create the demand pull for chemicals designed in accordance with the “Green Chemistry Principles”. Consequently, the scope of this study includes all stages in a chemical’s life-cycle, including the process of designing and producing the final products to which chemical substances contribute. For each stage the most relevant legislative acts, together establishing the regulatory framework of the “chemicals policy” in the EU are analysed. In a nutshell the main elements of the study can be summarized as follows: Green Chemistry (GC) is the utilisation of a set of principles that reduces or eliminates the use or generation of hazardous substances in the design, manufacture and application of chemical products. Besides, reaction efficiency, including energy efficiency, and the use of renewable resources are other motives of Green Chemistry. Putting the GC concept in a broader market context, however, it can only prevail if in the perception of the relevant actors it is linked to tangible business cases. Therefore, the study analyses the product context in which chemistry is to be applied, as well as the substance’s entire life-cycle – in other words, the six stages in product innovation processes): 1. Substance design, 2. Production process, 3. Interaction in the supply chain, 4. Product design, 5. Use phase and 6. After use phase of the product (towards a “circular economy”). The report presents an overview to what extent the existing framework, i.e. legislation and the wider institutional context along the six stages, is setting incentives for actors to adequately address problematic substances and their potential impacts, including the learning processes intended to invoke creativity of various actors to solve challenges posed by these substances. In this respect, measured against the GC and Learning Process assessment criteria, the study identified shortcomings (“delta”) at each stage of product innovation. Some criteria are covered by the regulatory framework and to a relevant extent implemented by the actors. With respect to those criteria, there is thus no priority need for further action. Other criteria are only to a certain degree covered by the regulatory framework, due to various and often interlinked reasons. For those criteria, entry points for options to strengthen or further nuance coverage of the respective principle already exist. Most relevant are the deltas with regard to those instruments that influence the design phase; both for the chemical substance as such and for the end-product containing the substance. Due to the multi-tier supply chains, provisions fostering information, communication and cooperation of the various actors are crucial to underpin the learning processes towards the GCP. The policy options aim to tackle these shortcomings in the context of the respective stage in order to support those actors who are willing to change their attitude and their business decisions towards GC. The findings are in general coherence with the strategies to foster GC identified by the Green Chemistry & Commerce Council.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.