Academic literature on the topic 'International Performance - Indian Context'

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the mediating effects of Chief Executive officer (CEO) attributes on the earliness of internationalization and performance in context of Indian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Design/methodology/approach The proposed framework is tested through analysis of a sample of 102 internationalized SMEs of the engineering industry in the Bangalore city region of India. Findings Results highlight that CEOs age and educational background moderates between early internationalization and performance in the Indian SME context. Practical implications Overall results facilitate in leveraging the decision-maker’s capabilities to successfully formulate and strategize their international marketing efforts to achieve higher performance. Originality/value The study enriches the importance of CEO attributes in influencing the early internationalization and degree of internationalization in the context of an emerging economy where studies are limited.

PurposeDevolution of human resource management to the line managers is an area that has received ample research attention, yet it remains a relatively unexplored area in the Indian context. Some researchers have examined the nature of devolution in India, but there is still a dearth of studies that establish the devolution‐organizational performance link. Thus, this paper study is carried out to explore the above link in the Indian context.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based on primary data obtained through a structured research instrument from senior human resource executives of top ranking companies in India. Scale unidimensionality, reliability, and validity were assessed.FindingsThe structural equation modeling capabilities of LISREL 8.50 are employed to assess the relationship between devolution and organizational performance. It is found that the structural model fits the data well. The model shows that devolution has a significant direct and positive impact on organizational performance.Research limitations/implicationsThe research instrument developed for the above study has been tested in the Indian context only. It needs to be tested and cross‐validated on other samples indifferent settings, cultures, and countries to further test its unidimensionality, reliability, and validity.Practical implicationsThe paper has implications for both academicians and practitioners because it explores a largely untouched upon area in the Indian context.Originality/valueThe paper is unique in the sense that it develops a reliable and valid instrument for measuring devolution and then explores the devolution‐performance link.

This study attempts to analyse the research profile of Ecology research in India during 1999-2010, country’s performance based on its research output, its publication share and rank in global context, and annual publication growth rate. It also analyses the share of international collaborative papers in India’s research output, the characteristics of research output of major Indian institutions, authors, and highly-cited papers. The patterns of research communication by Indian scientists in most productive journals in this discipline have also been evaluated.

AbstractIn the wake of recent financial scandals and in the context of the global financial crisis, corporate governance is especially significant. We examine the effect of corporate governance practices on the performance of 106 mid-sized firms in India, between 2005 and 2007. Our results confirm a significant relationship between CEO duality and firm performance. We also find that a small board is more effective and enhances the value of the firm. However, in the Indian context, we find that non-executive independent directors are failing in their monitoring role.

The present research study contributes to the extant literature on underpricing rather uniquely by addressing the under-researched linkage of corporate governance to underpricing. The originality of this effort also lies in being one of the initial efforts of exploring governance in context of initial public offering (IPO) underpricing in Indian settings. The study comprises an empirical analysis of 404 Indian IPOs studied for their board structures and ownership attributes using IPO prospectuses. Drawing support from the signalling theory, the variables board size and board committees exhibit a significant positive relationship to the IPO returns on the listing day. In Indian markets characterized by concentrated family-owned firms, promoter ownership does work as an effective signal for investors who take cues of firm potential from ownership patterns. Corporate governance measures have a miniscule contribution in explaining the underpricing of Indian IPOs and indicating that investors do not incorporate these as a major consideration in their investment decision.

This research study explored the link between corporate governance practices (CGPs) and organisational performance in India, especially in the context of some major CG reforms that have been undertaken since the turn of the twenty-first century. The authors also attempted to understand in-depth the implications of these reforms for the companies. For assessing the link between CG practices and organisational performance, data were collected from a sample of 100 listed companies in India using an adapted version of the Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI)’s questionnaire. Multilevel Factor Analysis (MFA) for scores along 5 CG sub-categories revealed 17 first-level and 4 second-level factors. Regression of organisational performance, measured using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), against these factors showed that the first-level factor representing corporate social responsibility and sustainability (CSRS) was a significant predictor of organisational performance. This finding is significant while considering the introduction of mandatory CG provisions for corporate social responsibility (CSR), applicable to companies meeting specified turnover and profitability thresholds according to CG regulations in India. The findings of this study open the debate on CG regulation and on mandatory and desirable norms in the Indian context. Eligible Indian companies must focus on the CG practice of investing in CSR initiatives through purpose-led CSRS interventions and their long-term benefits, rather than on viewing it as a mandatory CG provision that induces short-term expenses.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a framework which identifies the relationships between various supply chain practices (SCPs) and organizational performance (operational performance (OP), customer satisfaction, and financial performance) in the context of Indian manufacturing organizations. Design/methodology/approach From the literature, ten SCPs are selected which finally influences the organizational performance. In order to understand the interactions between SCPs and organizational performance, this paper grouped the ten SCPs into four constructs namely: information and communication technology, supply chain (SC) integration, operational responsiveness, and closed loop green practices. Three levels of firm performance are also examined, including OP, customer satisfaction, and financial performance. The paper-based and web-based survey yielded 292 responses from the Indian manufacturing organizations. The data collected were put through rigorous statistical analysis to test for the content, construct, and criterion-related validity, as well as reliability analyses. Further a structural equation model was developed to test the relationships between SCPs and organizational performance. Findings The finding suggests that a successful SCPs implementation not only improves the OP, but also enhances customer satisfaction and financial performance. In addition, higher financial performance is also attributable to better customer value resulting from the achievement of better customer satisfaction. Research limitations/implications SCPs are complex constructs. While this study shows the effect of broadly accepted SCPs on organizational performance, not all possible practices are covered in this study. Again the study can be further extended to sector specific so that the results can be further refined. Practical implications This is one of the few studies which attempts to investigate whether there is any relationship exits between SCPs and organizational performance. The finding will help decision makers in the organization to know the importance of SCPs and how SCPs influence the organizational performance. Second, this study has developed and validated a multi-dimensional construct of SCPs, which can assist decision makers of Indian organizations to evaluate the competence of their current status of SCPs in the organization. Originality/value As per the knowledge of the authors, this is the first kind of study which empirically investigated the relationships between SCPs and organizational performance in the context of Indian manufacturing organizations.

Purpose: The aim of this research article is to scrutinize the influence of employee job satisfaction on organizational commitment and business performance in the context of retail banking sector in northern India. Design/methodology/approach: A research design of quantitative in nature was used via a structured questionnaire on a sample of 440 Indian commercial bank employees. Research hypotheses were tested by using the structural equation modelling (SEM) technique to evaluate and test the proposed model. Findings: The result of the present study confirms that all facets of job satisfaction affect the satisfaction of employees significantly and, thus, influence the employee’s organizational commitment and business performance, respectively. The significance of the indirect path of employee job satisfaction on business performance through organizational commitment has also been tested with the Sobel test, which exhibited significant results. Research implications: This study provides insight into the influence of employee job satisfaction on the organizational commitment and business performance in the Indian commercial banking context in particular, which could benefit management and policymakers as well as other enterprises operating in the same segment. The results suggest that employee job satisfaction strongly contributes to employees’ organizational commitment and business performance. Therefore, organizations require that their employees must be contented and pleased with what they do. Originality/value: This research study contributes one more brick to the existing body of knowledge by investigating the casual relation of employee job satisfaction, and organizational commitment as a mediator with business performance, as these causal relations with business performance are very scarce in the context of commercial banking context. Research limitations: This research survey was restricted to commercial banks operating only in northern India. Thus, it limits the generalizability of the results for the context specified only.

Purpose A road network provides arterial arrangement to facilitate business, transport, social integration and economic progress of any nation. During the last seven decades after independence, road transport infrastructure in India has expanded manifold, both in terms of spread (total length and density of road) and capacity (number of on-road registered vehicles, and volume of passenger and freight traffic handled). But, with the enrichment of road transport network in India, the number of traffic accidents and total cost for maintaining the road infrastructure also keeps on increasing. It becomes necessary to evaluate state-wise performance of the Indian roads using some mathematical tools. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, using preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) and geometrical analysis for interactive aid (GAIA) approaches, an attempt is made to appraise the state-wise performance of Indian roads based on 12 critically important criteria. A geographic information system method and a hue-saturation-value color coding scheme are also employed to identify the influence of individual criterion on the overall rank of 29 Indian states. Findings It is observed that amongst all the considered states, the road conditions in the states of Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh are really satisfactory, whereas Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are the lagging states requiring governmental intervention and support to enhance their road network infrastructure. Practical implications This analysis would help the decision makers to identify the strengths and deficiencies of each Indian state with respect to its road conditions so that proper promotional and growth actions can be implemented. Originality/value From the review of the existing literature, it is quite evident that till date, no research work has been conducted in order to evaluate the performance of roads, and their conditions and characteristic features in the Indian context. In this paper, the state-wise performance of the Indian roads is appraised based on several identified parameters using a combined PROMETHEE-GAIA approach.

This article examines the factors that influence the accrual-based earnings management (AM) and real earnings management (RM) in the Indian context. Different firm-specific parameters as determinants of AM and RM are examined using panel data for 268 listed Indian manufacturing firms for the period 2009–2013. To estimate the AM and RM, Modified Jones Model (Dechow, Sloan, & Sweeney, 1995) and Roychowdhury Model (2006, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 42(3), 335–370) are used, respectively. Findings based on these models indicate that the Indian firms indulge in both AM and RM. Firm-specific parameters namely growth opportunity, financial leverage, firm’s performance and business group affiliation positively affect both AM and RM, whereas firm’s size, institutional ownership and firm age affect negatively. However, accounting flexibility measured by the ratio of net operating assets and sales is only positively related to accrual-based earnings management. Overall, the study finds that firm’s growth opportunity, financial leverage, firm’s performance, institutional ownership, business group affiliation and firm’s age influence both AM and RM.

Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Glasgow, 2007.
Ph.D. thesis submitted to the Department of Management, Faculty of Law, Business and Social Sciences, University of Glasgow, 2007. Includes bibliographical references.

This paper studies the relationship between firm performance, proxied by Tobin's Q, and two distinct ownership types, managerial owned firms and outside owned firms. The sample consists of 2005 young firms from Europe and the US that incorporated since the dot-com-bubble 2001. Very similar to the pre-2001 period, young and highly funded firms are of popular concern. In particular their owners, founders and CEOs are topic of interest and serve as figurehead for their company, raising the question whether their firms perform better if they also own them or not and whether that differs with the institutional framework that the company is situated in. Thus the research question is the following: What is the effect of having management as majority shareholder(s) on the performance of the young firm in different environments? To find an answer, I used quantitative data from Orbis and analyzed it using time-series panel data, recent information using simple OLS as well as multiple analyses of variance. I find evidence of higher valuations of firms owned by managers, especially in countries with common law and stronger shareholder rights. I also find evidence of relatively lower valuations of firms owned by their managers when these are situated in code law countries or countries with stronger creditor rights. A surprising addition to the findings were extreme values of Tobin's Q that may indicate another bubble in the making, coincidentally closing the circle of this study.

This thesis aims to explore the issues around intercultural translation and whether or not intercultural theatre can even truly represent non-domestic texts without distortion. In order to explore this in detail, this thesis uses as its research target an in-depth analysis of two productions produced at Edinburgh International Festival (EIF). Edinburgh International Festival was chosen as an appropriate cultural platform for this discussion due to its international recognition. In order to reveal the Eurocentric-oriented ideology within the Festival's policy and discuss the implications of this Eurocentric ideology for possibilities of intercultural translation, the thesis will explore the changes in programming policy by different EIF Festival Directors since 1947. Edward Said's 'Orientalism' is used as major reference regarding the Eurocentric ideology, and the concept of Western interculturalism. Several occidental and semi-western views are explored with relation to Broadway production on oriental themes in order to further explore Said's idea of "Orientalism". The thesis shows how this idea is present in the EIF's context, based on an in-depth analysis of two intercultural productions of 'Macbeth': Ninagawa and Kunju. The aim is to show how these two productions represent a Western audience's voice. Since the question of identification is one of the major concerns in intercultural theatre practice, the thesis discusses the issues of identity and analyses potential for indigenous Asian theatre forms to engage in intercultural exchange in a way that would be built on equality rather than changing those forms to suit Western audiences' understanding. Accordingly, two intercultural productions of Ninagawa and Kunju 'Macbeth', which were presented on EIF's stage in 1985 and 1987 respectively, and their performance texts will be analysed in terms of the implication of EIF's programming policy on Japan's and China's theatre works presented at the Festival. The resulting research outcomes indicate that equal exchange and authentic representation between different cultures may be impossible.

Although research on foreign market entry and expansion behaviour has attracted significant interest in the literature, there is a general lack of research (both conceptual and empirical) on the exit behaviour of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) firms. To address this issue, the current study develops a conceptual framework by extending the Environment-Strategy-Performance (ESP) paradigm to include the exit decision as a consequence of current performance. This thesis draws notions from various theories including the ESP paradigm, fit theory, dynamic capabilities (DC) theory, and the theory of competitive advantage. The objective is to take an initial step towards reducing the discrepancy between previous conceptual research and empirical research on exit, by developing a conceptual framework and empirically examining it in the context of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI). It also aims to lay the conceptual foundation for subsequent empirical research on international marketing and international exit. Several research hypotheses are advanced and tested using questionnaire survey data. The main research results show that both dissatisfactory performance of a foreign affiliate, and the internal strategic misfit between a foreign affiliate and its headquarters are important triggers of the exit decision. However, when the moderating role of a foreign affiliate’s marketing capabilities is considered, the impact of strategic misfit on the exit decision becomes not significant, whereas the influence of dissatisfactory performance on the exit decision remains significant. The research results have generated new insights into both international marketing strategy and international exit behaviour. Implications for both headquarters’ managers and foreign affiliates’ managers are also discussed.

This dissertation examines the identity of new controlling shareholders in partial corporate control transactions and its influence on firm performance and corporate policies in an international context. In a transfer of partial corporate control, the identity of controlling shareholder changs, thereby facilitating an event study of corporate changes resulted from controlling shareholder turnover. The dissertation comprises of three empirical research projects to address two questions: Firstly, does the identity of a new controlling shareholder in a partial control transfer matter to firm value? Secondly, how does new controlling shareholder identity explain the differences of firm performance and corporate policies in the long run? The equity block transactions in listed firms from around the world announced between 1996 and 2005 are filtered to arrive at the final sample of 215 corporate control transfers through private negotiation. This hand-collected dataset allows the dissertation to contribute to the existing literature on ownership concentration by introducing the identity of controlling shareholder into the theoretical framework and investigating its significance in an international context. It is argued that firm value, long-term performance and corporate policies can be influenced by the identity of new controlling shareholders because different controlling shareholders have distinct incentives, skills and styles. This dissertation finds that individual investor controlled firms outperform those controlled by corporate investors in both short-term abnormal returns and long-term performance after a control transfer; and that the sample firms controlled by individual and corporate investors adopt different policies of investment and financial leverage. The evidence presented here shows that individual controlling shareholders are better motivated to monitor managers and improve operational efficiency. Partial corporate control activities have important governance effects and controlling shareholder heterogeneity is a significant contributing factor to firm performance and decision making.

The Peruvian economy has performed extraordinarily over the last 10 years. The 2012 per capita GDP is 66 percent above that of 2002, and more than double its 1992 level. In a long term perspective, the cumulative growth of GDP per capita recorded in the last 10 years has been the strongest since 1900. This is the «Peruvian miracle». This paper aims to find the determinants of the Peruvian miracle. In theory, countries’ macroeconomic performance can be determined by two factors: i) the «good (bad) luck effect» that relates to the international context, which may be favorable or unfavorable, and ii) the «good (bad) policies effects», associated with short-term macroeconomic policies or structural reforms,which are policies that alter the current development model. The hypothesis of this work is that the Peruvian miracle of the last 10 years has much to do with good luck, and, in part, with good short-term macroeconomic policies.
La economía peruana ha tenido un desempeño extraordinario en los últimos diez años. El PBI per cápita de 2012 está un 66% por encima del de 2002 y es más del doble de su nivel de 1992. En una perspectiva de largo plazo, el crecimiento acumulado del PBI per cápita registrado en los últimos diez años ha sido el más vigoroso desde 1900. Este es el «milagro peruano». Este artículo tiene como propósito encontrar los factores determinantes del milagro peruano. En teoría,el desempeño macroeconómico de los países puede estar determinado por dos razones: i) el «efecto buena (mala) suerte» que tiene que ver con el contexto internacional que puede ser favorable o desfavorable; y ii) el efecto «buenas (malas) políticas», asociado a las políticas macroeconómicas de cortoplazo o a las reformas estructurales, que son políticas que alteran el modelo de desarrollo vigente. La hipótesis de este trabajo es que el milagro peruano de los últimos diez años tiene mucho que ver con la buena suerte y, en parte, con las buenas políticas macroeconómicas de corto plazo.

Earlier empirical studies on joint implementation of different combinations of Total Quality Management (TQM), Just-in-Time (JIT), Total Productive Maintenance (TPM), and Supply Chain Management (SCM) concluded that the high performing manufacturing plants have implemented practices from more than one manufacturing program. All these programs are complementary in nature. However, there is no study that provides empirical examination of TQM, JIT, TPM and SCM within single framework and broader perspective is missing. In this paper ‘Integrated Manufacturing Practices’ framework is presented based on synergistic relationship among TQM, JIT, TPM and SCM. The data of 155 manufacturing plants in India is analyzed using Discriminant Analysis (DA). The result of the analysis shows that the practices from each of the paradigm has significant loading on each of the performance measure. The findings demonstrate the importance of implementing the TQM, JIT, TPM and SCM synergistically to enhance overall performance of the manufacturing plants.

Abstract In a producing field of western offshore, H2S content in oil was found to be in the range of 3000-5000 ppm against the desired level of 200ppm. High H2S concentration posed a serious threat to pipelines integrity and downstream equipment. Mitigation by conventional means such as chemical injection is generally avoided at offshore due to constraint like continuous pumping, storage of chemicals, frequent monitoring, logistical impediments and disposing off by-products in compliance with statutory requirements. Considering many limitations at offshore, an approach was adopted for reduction of H2S utilizing Henry's principle which states that the amount of dissolved gas in a liquid is proportional to its partial pressure. Reducing the partial pressure by utilizing sweet natural gas or some other inert gas, H2S can be removed. Same principle was applied to conceptualize a processing system wherein sour crude can be sweetened to the desired level utilizing sweet gas as stripping gas. Processing System was designed considering many downstream and upstream constraints in the existing system and without any rotating and heating requirement. Unlike conventional way of sweetening such as chemical injection which requires continuous dosing of chemical and disposing off by-products in compliance with statutory requirements and hence, found not feasible at offshore to sweet enormous amount of crude. The designed processing system, a first in Indian offshore environment, is commissioned at one of the offshore complex and has proved it efficacy wherein H2S content of around 3000 ppm in around 6000 barrel/day of crude is being reduced to less than 10 ppm level without use of any hazardous chemicals and without any need of rotating and heating equipment's and with minimum maintenance and manual intervention requirement. The system has lowest operating cost, low maintenance and without use of any rotating and heating equipment's and hence can be emerged as an ideal solution for crude oil sweetening at offshore environment or in an environment where bare manual intervention is required.

Fish and other sea borne creatures have invoked interest in the minds of many professionals to study how they propel themselves in water and whether similar principles can be applied to the design of underwater vehicles. Adopting these principles for propulsion had been a challenge some decades ago, but with the current technological progress in robotics, design analysis, advanced computing, precision manufacturing, 3D printing, sensors, actuation, image processing etc have rekindled an interest in this field, especially in the Indian context. Moreover, with the thrust on development of unmanned autonomous systems, especially for the naval warfare, there is a case for looking at an efficient way to propel such vehicles that can stay underwater for a longer duration, move and navigate faster than those traditionally shaped and propelled by screw propellers or pump jets. This paper looks at some of the basics of fish locomotion; technology trends; examples of the current developments; benefits of emerging technologies, investigate performance of some basic shapes of caudal fin of fish with the help of modern analytical tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics and the way ahead.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have the potential to be an important component of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. Whilst requiring more diluted investment than Large Reactors (LRs), SMRs are simpler build and operate as well as being suitable for deployment in harsh environmental conditions. In addition, useful by-products such as desalinated water and process heat are generated. The economic competitiveness of SMRs with respect to LRs must be carefully evaluated since the economies of scale label these reactors as not economically competitive. As such, a variety of financial and economic models have been developed by the scientific community in order to assess the competitiveness of SMRs. One of these, the INCAS model (Integrated model for the Competitiveness Assessment of SMRs), performs an investment project simulation and assessment of SMR and LR deployment scenarios, providing monetary indicators (e.g. IRR, LUEC, total equity invested) and not-monetary indicators (e.g. design robustness, required spinning reserve). The work in this paper investigates the attractiveness of SMRs for a given scenario, the Indian state, through application of the INCAS model. India is the second most populated country in the world with rapid economic growth and a huge requirement for energy. There is also both good public acceptance and political support for nuclear power in India, important factors favoring the deployment SMRs in particular. India seems particularly suitable for SMR deployment because (i) its energy intensive industrial sites are located far from existing grids, (ii) rapid growth in the region and (iii) the requirement for plants to provide fresh water for the population, as well as for agriculture and industry. The results show that SMRs have roughly the same financial performance of LRs, however they have a competitive advantage as a result of non-financial factors such as co-generation application, higher local content and better management of the spinning reserves in a country with an electricity deficit.

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an international comparative study of student achievement directed by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA). TIMSS was first conducted in 1995 and the assessment conducted in 2019 formed the seventh cycle, providing 24 years of trends in mathematics and science achievement at Year 4 and Year 8. In Australia, TIMSS is managed by the Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) and is jointly funded by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments. The goal of TIMSS is to provide comparative information about educational achievement across countries in order to improve teaching and learning in mathematics and science. TIMSS is based on a research model that uses the curriculum, within context, as its foundation. TIMSS is designed, broadly, to align with the mathematics and science curricula used in the participating education systems and countries, and focuses on assessment at Year 4 and Year 8. TIMSS also provides important data about students’ contexts for learning mathematics and science based on questionnaires completed by students and their parents, teachers and school principals. This report presents the results for Australia as a whole, for the Australian states and territories and for the other participants in TIMSS 2019, so that Australia’s results can be viewed in an international context, and student performance can be monitored over time. The results from TIMSS, as one of the assessments in the National Assessment Program, allow for nationally comparable reports of student outcomes against the Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians. (Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs, 2008).

Are international human rights treaties associated with better rights performance? The appetite for a conclusive answer has driven a number of large scale quantitative studies that have broadly shown little or no effect, and sometimes even a backsliding. However, the headline conclusions belie much more complicated findings, and the research methods used are controversial. These issues undermine confidence in the findings. Comparative and individual case studies allow for more detailed information about how domestic human rights activists use international human rights laws in practice. They tend to be more positive about the effect of treaties, but they are not as systematic as the quantitative work. Some indirect measures of treaty effect show that the norms contained within them filter down into domestic constitutions, and that the process of human rights reporting at the UN may be useful if dialogue can be considered an a priori good. It is likely that states are driven to comply with human rights obligations through a combination of dynamic influences. Drivers of compliance with international law is a major, unresolved question in the research that is heavily influenced by the worldview of researchers. The two strongest findings are: Domestic context drives compliance. In particular: (1) The strength of domestic non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and links with international NGOs (INGOs), and (2) in partial and transitioning democracies where locals have a reason to use the treaties as tools to press their claims. External enforcement may help drive compliance when: (1) other states link human rights obligations in the treaties to preferential trade agreements, and (2) INGOs ‘name and shame’ human rights violations, possibly reducing inward investment flows from companies worried about their reputation. Scholars also identify intermediate effects of continued dialogue and norm socialisation from the UN’s human rights reporting processes. Interviews with diplomats involved in UN reporting say that the process is more effective when NGOs and individual governments are involved.

One of the roles of the ANE OR/TA Project in India was to participate in policy dialogues with national counterparts, in the public sector and among NGOs, about expanding contraceptive choices, and to provide technical assistance for facilitating changes in service-delivery procedures. The public sector provides five contraceptive methods through its 11,500 hospitals and primary health care facilities. NGOs, private physicians, and pharmacies have access to a broader range of brands. While India is one of the world's leaders in contraceptive research, in recent years products have come to market slowly. New technology is often embraced, however the cost of contraceptive options is not trivial in the Indian context. As stated in this report, the OR Project became formally involved in the effort to expand contraceptive choices in 1993 at the request of the USAID Mission in India. The Secretary of Family Welfare supported concerns for quality and choice as part of the preparation for the International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo, September 1994. Similar recommendations were made during development of a draft national population policy.

Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an international sample study that assesses the mathematics and science achievement of Year 4 and Year 8 students every four years. Australia has participated in all cycles of TIMSS since it commenced in 1995 and over this 24-year period has collected rich data about trends in mathematics and science achievement. This document provides the highlights from Volume I of the main report TIMSS 2019 Australia. Volume I: Student performance. Volume I and these Highlights focus on the achievement results, detailing Australia’s results within the international context, as well as the results for the Australian jurisdictions, and for different demographic groups within Australia.

This book examines the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in contributing to the fiscal instability of the Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago (CCB6), with the aim of providing tangible guidance for policymakers seeking to address this issue. Using an original dataset of SOE performance in the Caribbean, the contributors focus on the fiscal implications of unchecked growth, poor oversight, and mismanagement of SOEs, with particular focus on commercial SOEs. The authors examine the historical, economic, and socio-political context of SOEs in the CCB6 and stress the need for simultaneous fiscal reform both at the federal and firm levels. The authors analyze the SOE sectors growth and performance to date, revealing entrenched challenges, specifically around incentives and accountability. The recommendations propose adaptations of accepted international best practices and lay out long-term objectives and the more feasible points of entry for fiscal reform.

This is the second of two reports that look at the results of TIMSS 2019 and Australia’s performance. Volume I focuses specifically on the achievement results, detailing Australia’s results within the international context, and presents results for the Australian jurisdictions, and for the different demographic groups within Australia, including male and female students. This report, Volume II, presents the results from the contextual questionnaires, and examines the contexts in which learning and achievement occur, including home, school, and classroom contexts, as well as student attitudes. Each chapter focuses on different indicators that cover the school community, the school learning environment, mathematics and science teacher characteristics, mathematics and science classroom learning environments, and students’ attitudes and beliefs. Together, the different indicators of student and school life illustrate some of the many key aspects that make up the school experience.

The multiple schema for the classification of soils rely on differing criteria but the major soil science systems, including the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the international harmonized World Reference Base for Soil Resources soil classification systems, are primarily based on inferred pedogenesis. Largely these classifications are compiled from individual observations of soil characteristics within soil profiles, and the vast majority of this pedologic information is contained in nonquantitative text descriptions. We present initial text mining analyses of parsed text in the digitally available USDA soil taxonomy documentation and the Soil Survey Geographic database. Previous research has shown that latent information structure can be extracted from scientific literature using Natural Language Processing techniques, and we show that this latent information can be used to expedite query performance by using syntactic elements and part-of-speech tags as indices. Technical vocabulary often poses a text mining challenge due to the rarity of its diction in the broader context. We introduce an extension to the common English vocabulary that allows for nearly-complete indexing of USDA Soil Series Descriptions.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño