Academic literature on the topic 'Internet in agriculture'

Across the Internet of things industry computer, communication, network, intelligent computing, sensors, embedded systems, several technical fields such as microelectronics, Internet of things technology applied in agriculture, can realize the wisdom agriculture and agricultural IOT, this paper expounds the concept of Internet of things and the relevant technology of the Internet of things and Internet of things technology in agriculture in many applications.

This paper involves the modern agricultural application control system which is based on internet of things, and this intelligent management system uses intelligent control technology such as S7-300, GSM,WSN and Zigbee to realize the modernization of rural security, agricultural production and residents living fully intelligent managed. This system applies precision agriculture, digital image processing, wireless data transmission and other fields, really combining digital management technology with embedded technology. At the same time, this system which is based on internet of things is the necessary path of modern agriculture informatization strategy. With the mature development of technology of internet of things in modern society, modern agriculture application management system based on internet of things will bring new change to agriculture and high efficiency of agricultural production.

Research on intelligent agriculture in our country has attracted great attention of the researchers now, but it is still under discovery. According to tropical agriculture in Hainan to IT's demand, the paper studies the key technology in the development of tropical intelligent agriculture, including automatic test technology, automatic control technology, Internet of Things and so on. This paper analyzes factors that affect tropical intelligent agricultures development, which include agricultural program, agricultural policies and regulations, agricultural technology situation, infrastructure construction, field management and other factors. The thesis builds a model between the development of tropical intelligent agriculture and its affecting factors. A developmental idea of tropical intelligent agriculture in Hainan is proposed on the basis of the model. The thesis analyzes the construction of intelligent agriculture control system in Hainan from the angles of data acquisition, data transfer, data analysis and data feed.

Climate-smart agriculture is an approach for developing agricultural strategies to modernize agricultural systems using digital techniques, aiming for sustainable agriculture and ensuring food security under climate change. This article provides a systematic literature review of smart agriculture technologies towards climate-smart agriculture in Cyprus, including robotics, Internet of Things, and remote sensing. The paper starts with a review of climate-smart agriculture, presenting its importance in terms of optimizing agricultural production processes in order to address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. An extensive literature review of works published in the areas of robotics, Internet of Things, and remote sensing is undertaken, with particular attention paid to works carried out in relation to agriculture in Cyprus. The paper analyzes aspects of the climate-smart agriculture research situation in Cypriot agriculture, identifies gaps, and concludes with new directions.

Agriculture is familiarly called “Farming”. Agriculture is the basic art to cultivate food which is a necessary need to every living individual. Agriculture needs the practice of science for cultivating the soil factors and growing crops. In traditional farming, it includes more labor work and less yield quantity. This demerit can be overcome by the modern farming techniques which makes use of the advanced technology and focuses on maximizing the yield and maintaining the quality. Earlier the farmers used to figure out the type of the soil based on their suspicion and they would never think of the humidity, temperature, climatic condition and especially the level of water. IoT is trying to overcome all these factors by helping to assemble the information. This paper focuses on the soil moisture and soil type which lets the farmer know about the type of crops to be grown.

Agriculture is one of the primary sectors in the Indian economy. Over the past several years, agricultural scientific techniques and agricultural implements have developed in the region, replacing the traditional method of farming. By which the economic condition of the farmers has improved. In addition, there are still some small farmers in India who use the old traditional methods of farming of agriculture because they do not have the resources to use modern methods. Besides, it is the only region that has contributed not only to the development of itself but also to other areas of the country. Agriculture has a major contribution to the country’s GDP and national income. In addition, it requires a huge manpower and labour which constitutes about 80% of the total workforce. Employees work not only directly but indirectly in the agricultural sector. Irrigation is the use of controlled amounts of water at the required intervals to the plants. Effective irrigation will affect seed development, germination, root growth, utilization of nutrients, plant growth and revival, yield and quality of the entire development process. The farmer knows how much water he has to give to the crop and when crop is to be planted, but the best system of irrigation it is necessary to have the information about use of equipment, plant species, soil structure, soil preparation and It is also important to be aware of all these that at what stage to watering the plant. The aim of this research paper is to describe how the Internet of Things (IoT) framework plays an important role in the field of agriculture. Here to show the importance of IoT in agriculture, we choose “Smart Drip Irrigation System.”

The Internet of Things (IoT) has tremendous success in health care, smart city, industrial production and so on. Protected agriculture is one of the fields which has broad application prospects of IoT. Protected agriculture is a mode of highly efficient development of modern agriculture that uses artificial techniques to change climatic factors such as temperature, to create environmental conditions suitable for the growth of animals and plants. This review aims to gain insight into the state-of-the-art of IoT applications in protected agriculture and to identify the system structure and key technologies. Therefore, we completed a systematic literature review of IoT research and deployments in protected agriculture over the past 10 years and evaluated the contributions made by different academicians and organizations. Selected references were clustered into three application domains corresponding to plant management, animal farming and food/agricultural product supply traceability. Furthermore, we discussed the challenges along with future research prospects, to help new researchers of this domain understand the current research progress of IoT in protected agriculture and to propose more novel and innovative ideas in the future.

The development of information technology and communication is increasingly perceived by the public, one of them internet. Agricultural extension worker as the spearhead of agricultural development has an important role in assisting the development of agriculture. Internet as a medium that stores a variety of information on agriculture and as a medium of communication can be used to support the agricultural extension activities. The purpose of this study is to analyze the understanding of agricultural extension worker to the internet, analyze the behavior of internet usage by agricultural extension worker, and analyze the utilization of the internet by agricultural extension worker. This study was conducted using a quantitative approach that is supported by qualitative data. Quantitative data collected using questionnaires to 16 people from the agricultural extension worker of BP3K Dramaga and 22 people from the agricultural extension worker of BP3K Cibungbulang, the qualitative data obtained through interviews and observations. Obtained data analyzed using descriptive analysis and correlation tests. The results showed that agricultural extensions worker is sufficient used the internet to support in agricultural extension activities.Keywords: information technology, communication, agricultural extension --------------------------------ABSTRAKPerkembangan teknologi informasi dan komunikasi semakin dirasakan oleh masyarakat, salah satunya internet. Penyuluh pertanian sebagai ujung tombak pembangunan pertanian memiliki peran penting dalam membantu perkembangan pertanian. Internet sebagai media yang menyimpan berbagai informasi tentang pertanian dan sebagai media komunikasi dapat digunakan untuk mendukung kegiatan penyuluhan pertanian. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pemahaman penyuluh pertanian pada internet, menganalisis perilaku penggunaan internet oleh penyuluh pertanian, dan menganalisis pemanfaatan internet oleh penyuluh pertanian. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif yang didukung oleh data kualitatif. Data kuantitatif dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan kuesioner untuk 16 orang dari penyuluh pertanian dari BP3K Dramaga dan 22 orang dari penyuluh pertanian dari BP3K Cibungbulang, data kualitatif diperoleh melalui wawancara dan observasi. Data yang diperoleh dianalisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif dan uji korelasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penyuluh pertanian telah cukup menggunakan internet untuk mendukung kegiatan penyuluhan pertanian.Kata kunci: teknologi informasi, komunikasi, penyuluhan pertanian

Weekly advisories developed by the Arizona Cotton Advisory Program are now available from the Internet. Nineteen location-specific advisories are developed each Monday morning and then transferred to the Main AZMET Internet Web Page located at URL address http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. To retrieve advisories from the Internet users must 1) log on to the Internet using the procedures required by your Internet service provider; 2) enter the URL for the Main AZMET Web Page; 3) move to the Cotton Advisory sub-page; and 4) select the advisory of interest. Advisories for the most recent week, this year to date, and all of 1998 are available at this Internet address.

Weekly production advisories and weather updates are now available from the Internet. Nineteen location-specific advisories are developed each Monday morning and then transferred to the Main AZMET Internet Web Page located at URL address http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. To retrieve advisories or updates from the Internet users must 1) log on to the Internet using the procedures required by your Internet service provider; 2) enter the URL for the Main AZMET Web Page; 3) move to the Cotton Advisory sub-page; and 4) select the advisory or update of interest. Advisories for the most recent week, this year to date, and all of 1999 are available at this Internet address.

Les Réseaux de Capteurs Sans Fil (RCSF ou Wireless Sensor Network - WSN) sont l'une des technologies les plus importantes du 21ème siècle. La plupart des chercheurs et les analystes estiment que, dans un proche avenir, ces micro-capteurs seront intégrés partout dans l’environnement de notre vie quotidienne. Ces dernières années, l'Internet des Objets (Internet of Things - IoT) est également une des technologies émergentes qui se développe rapidement. Deux nouveaux standards permettent de déployer des réseaux sans fil de faible consommation énergétique connectés à internet : le protocole 6LowPAN (Low power Wireless Personal Area Networks) qui permet notamment d’apporter l’adressage IPv6 aux capteurs grâce à l’encapsulation et la compression des données et le protocole de routage RPL (IPv6 routing protocol for low-power and lossy network) qui permet à l’information de circuler dans les WSN de proche en proche à un faible coût énergétique. Bien que le développement de ces techniques soit extrêmement rapide, plusieurs problèmes causés principalement par le manque de ressources des micro-capteurs (puissance limitée de traitement, problèmes de bande passante et de connexion des liens avec perte de données, problème de ressource énergétique limitée) demeurent et doivent être résolus, notamment pour les applications agro-environnementales
The wireless sensor network (WSN) is one of the most important technologies of the 21st century. Most researchers and technical analysts believe that in the near future, these micro-sensors will be integrated into the environment of our daily lives. In recent years, the IoT (Internet of Things) and WoT (Web of Things) technologies also have great forwarding. Especially, the IPv6 over Low power Wireless Personal Area Networks (6LoWPAN) protocol has allowed the use of IPv6 protocol stack in the field of WSN, thanks to its encapsulation and compression mechanisms in IPv6 packet header. Moreover, the RPL (IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low-power and Lossy Network) provides such a powerful routing function that can be applied for a variety of application scenarios. These two key standards of IoT and WoT technologies for WSN can be used in an IPv6 stack, and they will successfully achieve the connection between Internet and micro-sensors. Thus, due to the availability of IPv6 address (128-bit), all the communicating objects, such as smart device, sensor, and actuator, can be connected to the Internet. That is the greatest advantage brought by the IoT. Although the progress of these techniques is extremely fast, several issues caused by resource constraints of micro-sensor (limited processing power, bandwidth and lossy connection link, and energy), such as QoS, energy efficient, robustness and lifetime of WSN, and the most important, the special requirement of agricultural applications. Notice that Precision Agriculture is are still very challenging and waiting to be solved. Essentially, these open questions would dabble in the aspects like telemedicine, remote home automation, industrial control etc. Thus, the results obtained in this work will have a significant impact on both economic and scientific. Economically, it can offer a solution for WSN to support sustainable development in the field of agriculture automation. While scientifically, we will contribute to the routing protocol standardization of wireless micro-sensors in the domain of environmental monitoring

Precision Agriculture (PA) is an emerging technology which enables efficient irrigation by employing the Internet of Things (IoT). We split the thesis in two parts. The first part is estimation of humidity level via experimentation. We focus on measuring Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) to obtain humidity level of the field. Thus, we aim at eliminating the humidity sensors which are very expensive and estimate soil moisture through the variation of RSSI values measured by wireless devices buried underground. In the second part of the thesis, we aim at building an accurate and reliable irrigation system by the help of IoT technology via simulations. The advantage brought by our Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is twofold: it minimizes the amount of wasted water during irrigation in farming, and it increases the yield with efficient irrigation. For these purposes, we tested the performance of LoRa protocol in different scenarios in both parts of the thesis.

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The south region of Minas Gerais stands out nationally for its coffee culture, where most of its producers have family farming characteristics, thus having certain technological need. Considering these aspects, many producers do not have software to carry out the management control of their productions. Information systems have greatly added in various industries, and it would be no different in agribusiness. Thus, it is essential that the lagged technologically farmers can have access to the tools to become more competitive enterprise. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop web system that aims to coffee production management. Such a system was developed from interviews with coffee farmers in the southern region of Minas Gerais, where ascertained how it is necessary to online systems that auxiliary in the management of properties. To develop the system used the PHP web programming language, JavaScript and MySQL database. It should be noted that the system has the responsive feature, adapting well in different sizes and shapes of devices. The system was developed by the importance of having a friendly interface and easy to use.
A região Sul de Minas Gerais destaca-se nacionalmente pelo seu cultivo de café, onde a maioria de seus produtores têm características de agricultura familiar, desta forma tendo certa carência tecnológica. Diante destes aspectos, muitos produtores não possuem softwares que realizem o controle de gestão de suas produções. Os sistemas de informação muito têm acrescentado em diversos setores, e não seria diferente no agronegócio. Sendo assim, torna-se imprescindível que os produtores rurais defasados tecnologicamente possam ter acesso às ferramentas que permitam tornar o empreendimento mais competitivo. Portanto, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi desenvolver sistema web que tem como finalidade a gestão da produção de café. Tal sistema foi desenvolvido a partir de entrevistas realizadas com produtores de café da região Sul de Minas Gerais, em que averiguaram o quão se faz necessário sistemas online que os auxiliassem na gestão das propriedades. Para desenvolvimento deste utilizou-se a linguagem de programação web PHP, JavaScript e banco de dados MySQL. Deve-se ressaltar que o sistema apresenta a característica responsiva, adaptando assim a diversos tamanhos e formatos de dispositivos. Desenvolveu-se o sistema mediante a importância de se ter uma interface amigável e de fácil utilização. Utilizou-se a modalidade web e com a característica responsiva tendo em mente que o produtor rural pode fazer o controle de sua produção em sua propriedade rural e também de outros locais, bastando ter acesso à Internet e estar em posse de um dispositivo de sua preferência.

The purpose of this study was to identify the barriers Virginia agricultural producers encounter when using the Internet and their preferences when seeking information delivered via the Internet. The results are expected to provide Extension educators needed information about producer Internet use patterns and their preferences related to Internet-based learning systems. The survey population (N = 370) consisted of Virginia agricultural producers currently known to be using the Internet as identified by the county Agricultural Extension agents. Data were collected online via an interactive, encrypted Web site and analyzed with SAS/STAT software. The 186 usable producer responses indicated that they were predominately white (98.36%), males (82.87%) averaging 51 years of age with some college education. Their primary occupation was farm or ranch work (41.71%) with a gross value of agricultural sales of $100,000 - $249,999. Nearly 60% conducted Internet agricultural marketing activities; three quarters purchased agricultural supplies, 43.17% conduct non-agricultural Internet business, and 50% use dialup services to access the Internet. In total, 95.68% of the responding producers access the Internet at least once a week and 31.60% reported previous participation in Internet-based learning. Producers below 30 years of age considered their lack of experience/training to be less of a barrier than older producers. Time constraints associated with job responsibilities, isolation from other program participants, and their ability to learn at a distance were seen as greater barriers by males than females. Producers listing their primary occupation as other than farming saw time constraints associated with their job as a greater barrier than those retired but still farming. Producers with a high school education generally rated barriers associated with Internet-based learning as greater obstacles than those with advanced degrees. Following an exposure to an Internet-based learning experience, no differences were observed related to the producersâ age, gender, primary occupation, and the operationâ s gross value of agricultural sales and the selected factors. Producers making agricultural Internet purchases, perceived their motivation to participate in Internet-base learning as less of a barrier than those that did not. Generally, as the producersâ Internet use frequency increased, their perception of the barriers was reduced and those with previous Internet-based learning experience saw their ability to learn at a distance as less of a barrier than did those with no experience. A comparison of pre- and post-exposure data, revealed time constrains associated with job responsibilities, access to instructors/specialists, feedback/instructor contact, and the motivation to participate as the greatest barriers to Internet-base learning. Differences in pre- and post-exposure assessments confirm that producersâ perception of the barriers were worse than actuality. Extensionâ s Internet-based learning experiences should be accessible from a familiar Internet location. The learnersâ abilities and connectivity should be considered when developing systems to minimize barriers associated with these factors. Internet-based activities should be relevant to the learner. Experiences should be available in multiple formats including video, audio, print and combinations of the aforementioned. Learners should be afforded the opportunity to interact with the presenter/instructor via the most acceptable and timely means.
Ph. D.

Thesis (MTech (Information Technology))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2017.
The objective of this study was to determine the current status of e-agriculture research in the South African context. A systematic literature review was used to gather and analyse data in alignment with the objective of the study. The researcher used keywords and combined search keywords on web search engines and digital databases to obtain pertinent research papers. The scope of the study was limited to the period 2000-2016. The books, theses, conference papers and journal articles identified as pertinent to conduct the study, amounted to 114 in number. The analysis of the study described the focus of research papers, research methods, research approaches, theoretical lenses, units of analysis and observation, levels of analysis, historical development, and major concepts and disciplines used by authors in their studies. The study also sought to discover the year of publication and assessment of searchability of the papers. The results indicate that 13 papers (11.4%) were published in the first five years (2000- 2004) and 51 papers (44.7%) in the last five years (2012-2016) of the delimited period for the study. The results of the study further indicate that the application of geographic information systems (GISs) towards improving agriculture was the most prominent eagriculture research area in South Africa (27 papers, 23.6%), followed by the use of satellite enhancing agriculture (26 papers, 22.8%). E-government direct services, mobile in agriculture, and agricultural information systems were the least prominent e-agriculture research areas in South Africa with a contribution of two papers (1.8%) each. The results of this study show that information mapping was the most used research method by researchers in their studies (57 papers, 50%), followed by the case study method with 31 papers (27.1%). The results further denote that the least used research method was industry reports with no mention of it in any of the pertinent papers, followed by grounded theory with two papers (1.7%). Interpretivism was the most used research approach by researchers (six papers, 5.2%) during the period 2000-2016. The findings of this study clearly show that researchers still need to address certain issues or problems regarding e-agriculture in South Africa in order to improve the agricultural sector. The contribution of the study is to understand the importance of enhancing research capability and socio-economic transformation of farmworkers and farmers through enhanced communication of agriculture research knowledge in the area of agricultural informatics. A foundation for further studies was created for continuous e-agriculture research in South Africa.

Agriculture 4.0 & High Tech Farming are strictly related to connectivity between management system and tools (devices and equipment). That is called IoT approach. The definition of Internet of things is evolving due to the convergence of multiple technologies, real-time analytics, machine learning, commodity sensors, and embedded systems. In farming system like vineyard and tillage crops, the main applications are related to monitor soil, environment and crops but also to provide prescription maps essential to control automatic operation of devices and equipment. The systemic system of IoT permits to have augmented knowledge on the overall process that is essential to manage sustainability and product quality. IoT enhances traceability by block chain.

Zimbabwe has faced severe droughts, resulting in low agricultural outputs. This has threatened food and nutrition security in community sections, especially in areas with low annual rainfall. There is a growing need to maximize water usage, monitor the environment and nutrients, and temperatures by the adaptation of smart agriculture. This research explored the use of the Internet of Things (IoT) for smart agriculture in Zimbabwe to improve food production. The mixed methodology was used to gather data through interviews from 50 purposively sampled A2 farmers in the five agricultural regions of Zimbabwe and was supported by the use of the Internet. The findings reveal that some farmers have adopted IoT in Zimbabwe, others are still to adopt such technology and some are not aware of the technology. IoT’s benefits to Zimbabwean farmers are immense in that it improves food security, water preservation, and farm management. However, for most farmers to benefit from IoT, more awareness campaigns should be carried out and mobile and fixed Internet connectivity improved in some of the areas.

t.The development of global agricultural production and food trade in recent decades implies a digital transformation and the transition to a new technological order, which is an essential factor for sustainable development. Digitalization of agriculture and the food sector is carried out on the basis of IT 2 platforms, the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. Fragmented and unclear legal mechanisms, slow updating of legal regulation hinder the introduction of digital solutions. A modern regulatory framework based on digital strategies should strengthen the confidence of farmers in "smart agriculture". In Russia, the legal mechanism of strategic planning covers the development of the national platform "Digital Agriculture". Digital strategies also include updating basic legislation.

Modern agricultural production and food trade are involved in the process of digital transformation, which is a cardinal factor of sustainable development and is carried out on the basis of IT platforms, the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the dependence of these sectors of the economy on information and communication technology infrastructure and services. At the same time, the slow updating of legislation, which lags behind the constantly improving digital technologies, not only hinders their implementation, but also is a source of a number of social and legal problems. A modern regulatory framework based on digital strategies should strengthen "smart agriculture". In Russia, the legal mechanism of digital transformation and development of the national platform "Digital Agriculture" should be supported by updated basic legislation.

Agricultural development corridors and clusters are highly complex projects that have been driven in Africa by agribusiness and mining corporations, host governments, international donors and development finance institutions. There is interest in whether these projects can support inclusive agribusiness. Evidence shows that involvement of small-scale economic actors in such initiatives is often impeded by a failure to grant them participation or a voice. We therefore investigated if and how recent corridors and clusters in Africa have been able to achieve the meaningful engagement of small-scale economic actors, with a focus on smallholders, including pastoralists, and the women among them.

A critical issue in international development is how donor-funded programs can support sustainable and long-lasting changes in assisted countries. Among the factors associated with sustainability is improved governance. However, many donor-funded initiatives are focused on achieving results in specific sectors, such as health, education, and agriculture. How can how governance interventions contribute to achieving sector-specific results? This brief explores this question and discusses how international development practice has incorporated recognition of the links between governance and sector outcomes. The brief develops a stylized continuum of how governance elements relate to sector interventions and contribute to expected outcomes. We discuss factors that either impede or impel governance integration and close with some observations regarding prospects for integrated programming. The audience for the brief is the international development policy and practitioner communities, and secondarily, academics with an interest in the topic. Key take-aways include: (1) there is ample evidence of positive contributions from improved governance to sector-specific outcomes, but few guideposts exist for practical and effective governance integration; (2) barriers to integration include urgent sector priorities that overshadow governance concerns, requirements to demonstrate progress towards ambitious sector targets, and complex choices related to measurement; and (3) sustainability and self-reliance are major drivers for integration and are facilitated by the flexibility and adaptation that governance integration enables.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The USDA Caribbean Climate Hub hosted a workshop in San Juan, Puerto Rico on September 22-23, 2015 to communicate the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) strategies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and explore how these strategies interact with regional activities and partner agencies. The workshop served as a platform to discuss what tools and techniques are currently proving effective in communicating climate science and adaptive practices within Caribbean working lands.