Relevant bibliographies by topics / Interrupted Time Series Analysis

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Academic literature on the topic 'Interrupted Time Series Analysis'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 20 February 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Matowe, Lloyd K., Cathie A. Leister, Concetta Crivera, and Joan M. Korth-Bradley. "Interrupted Time Series Analysis in Clinical Research." Annals of Pharmacotherapy 37, no. 7-8 (July 2003): 1110–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1345/aph.1a109.

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OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the usefulness of interrupted time series analysis in clinical trial design. METHODS: A safety data set of electrocardiographic (ECG) information was simulated from actual data that had been collected in a Phase I study. Simulated data on 18 healthy volunteers based on a study performed in a contract research facility were collected based on single doses of an experimental medication that may affect ECG parameters. Serial ECGs were collected before and during treatment with the experimental medication. Data from 7 real subjects receiving placebo were used to simulate the pretreatment phase of time series; data from 18 real subjects receiving active treatment were used to simulate the treatment phase of the time series. Visual inspection of data was performed, followed by tests for trend, seasonality, and autocorrelation by use of SAS. RESULTS: There was no evidence of trend, seasonality, or autocorrelation. In 11 of 18 simulated individuals, statistically significant changes in QTc intervals were observed following treatment with the experimental medication. A significant time of day and treatment interaction was observed in 4 simulated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Interrupted time series analysis techniques offer an additional tool for the study of clinical situations in which patients must act as their own controls and where serial data can be collected at evenly distributed intervals.
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McDonald, Terrence, Brendan Lethebe, Alistair McGuire, and Lee Green. "Time modifier billing code - an interrupted time series analysis." Canadian Journal of Emergency Nursing 44, no. 2 (July 20, 2021): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.29173/cjen137.

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Time modifier billing code: Interrupted time series analysis. Terrence McDonald, Brendan Cord Lethebe, Alistair McGuire, Lee Green Background: Alberta has the highest percentage of fee-for-service Family Physicians in Canada at over 80%. In 2019 as part of a cost containment strategy, the Alberta government proposed a policy change to eliminate the most used fee code that compensates family physicians for extended visit times (16-25 minutes). Optimal length for patient visit times varies throughout the world and countries with health systems that place emphasis on relational continuity demonstrate a trend towards longer appointment times. In Canada, the relationship between visit length and outcomes is not known. Implementation: What would be the likely consequences of eliminating the extended visit code? We examined this question using two different observational methods, to improve confidence in our findings: a retrospective longitudinal cohort (time series) around the time the code was introduced in 2009, and a cross-sectional cohort at current time. We explored the usage patterns of that fee code, its association with the outcomes of emergency department visits and hospitalizations, along with physician billings. Results: We found rates of emergency department visits decreased after the time-modifier code was implemented starting in 2010. This effect was maintained in the years that followed. A similar but less pronounced effect was observed in the hospitalization rates. The cross-sectional analysis had to include an interaction term because family physicians selectively extend visits for patients at risk, but when that is accounted for, the same effect is observed as in longitudinal results. The code was not used ubiquitously among primary care providers, especially in rural areas. Female physicians used it more often. Users use it for an average of 40% of 03.03A office visits. Non-users of the code earned more income than their user-colleagues. Conclusion: We believe our findings will fill an important gap in informing the importance of an extended time service billing code in a fee-for-service system in reducing ED visits and hospitalizations. Advice and Lessons Learned: The fee-for-service time-modifier code, introduced in 2009, resulted in reduced ED visits and hospitalizations. It is likely that discontinuing the code would result in increased ED and hospital utilization, costing much more than removing the code would save. Usage of the time-modifier code was not uniform among primary care. Users of the code had different practice patterns and provider demographics. Our next step is to model the uptake of the code by primary care providers and explore the health system utilization and down-stream costs between users and non-users of the code.
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Wong, Ricky H., Fabrice Smieliauskas, I.-Wen Pan, and Sandi K. Lam. "Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery." Neurosurgical Focus 39, no. 6 (December 2015): E6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/2015.9.focus15374.

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OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend’s effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA’s potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention’s immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.
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Crosbie, John, and Christopher F. Sharpley. "DMITSA: A simplified interrupted time-series analysis program." Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers 21, no. 6 (November 1989): 639–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/bf03210591.

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Crosbie, John. "Interrupted time-series analysis with brief single-subject data." Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 61, no. 6 (1993): 966–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-006x.61.6.966.

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Ramsey, Patricia P., and Philip H. Ramsey. "Robust testing of level changes in interrupted time-series analysis." Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 76, no. 10 (October 2006): 913–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10629360500109069.

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Linden, Ariel. "Challenges to validity in single‐group interrupted time series analysis." Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 23, no. 2 (September 14, 2016): 413–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jep.12638.

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Shenoy, Amrita G., Charles E. Begley, Lee Revere, Stephen H. Linder, and Stephen P. Daiger. "Innovating patient care delivery: DSRIP's interrupted time series analysis paradigm." Healthcare 7, no. 1 (March 2019): 44–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hjdsi.2017.11.004.

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Huitema, Bradley E. "Analysis of Interrupted Time-Series Experiments Using ITSE: A Critique." Understanding Statistics 3, no. 1 (February 2004): 27–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15328031us0301_2.

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Sharpley, Christopher F. "Time-Series Analysis of Behavioural Data: An Update." Behaviour Change 4, no. 4 (December 1987): 40–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0813483900008329.

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Some recent developments in the use of interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) are described with particular reference to the detection of effects with short data series such as those often encountered in applied behaviour analysis. The necessity to perform the sometimes troublesome model-identification procedure is questioned, and the likely incidence of Type 1 and 2 errors is discussed. Conclusions are drawn to suggest that ITSA may be safely applied to data that are typical of those collected in applied behaviour analysis.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Prendergast, Tim. "Interrupted Time Series Analysis Techniques in Pharmacovigilance." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30291.

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This thesis considers an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of risk communications for prescription drugs by performing interrupted time series analysis of prescription drug volumes prior to and after the risk communication date. The paper presents methods for detecting change in the presence of autocorrelation and techniques to reduce bias in estimation. Statistical results and data plots are presented for 63 data series. Size and power of the statistical techniques are considered, and a correspondence analysis between these statistical techniques and a small group of physicians is performed. The methods considered in this thesis correspond weakly with physician sentiment, and exhibit inflated type I errors in the presence of significant autocorrelation.
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Gerlach, Laura A. "Increasing Organ Donations in Maryland: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5707.

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The state of Maryland has been unsuccessful in achieving its goal of registering all of its population as organ donors. The purpose of this correlational study was to understand if allowing registered donors to remain anonymous would increase donor registration rates. The theoretical foundation of this study was the theory of planned behavior. Data were collected from the Motor Vehicle Administration of Maryland and the Division of Motor Vehicle of Virginia. The data were analyzed using regression displacement, interrupted time series analysis, auto correlation analysis, and Arima Box Jenkins methodology. According to the study findings, offering the option to remain anonymous and registering to be an organ donor with no heart icon on the driver's license did not have the immediate effect of encouraging more people to register as an organ donor. Parameter estimates from an Arima autoregression analysis did suggest that the impact of the removal of the heart icon may have a delayed impact, although data availability limited attempts at further investigation.
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Hummelgren, Axel. "Vilket pris avgör vad du handlar? : En kvantitativ jämförande studie av krympflations påverkan på försäljning." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-419854.

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Konsumtionsbeteende är idag en viktig undersökningspunkt för att med säkerhet kunna genomföra implementeringar av nya policys inom konsumentpolitiken. Både klassiska nationalekonomiska teorier och beteendeekonomiska teorier används för att beskriva och förutsäga dessa beteenden, men det saknas undersökningar på deras faktiska kopplingar till olika typer av prissättning. Denna uppsats har gjort ett försök till att undersöka vilken påverkan en förändring i pris genom en förändring i paketstorlek har på efterfrågan. Den har även försökt ge en analys till om de förändringar som noteras är kopplade till beteendeekonomi eller klassisk nationalekonomisk teori. Med hjälp av en vanlig tidstrendsanalys tillsammans med en interrupted-time-series-analysis har försäljningstrenderna för försäljning i KG för två substituerande produkter skapats och jämförts. Dessa fastställer att förändringens påverkan framförallt stämmer överens med teorier gällande beteendeekonomi men att sambandet mellan en förändring i försäljningsnivå och en förändring i paketstorlek inte är säkerställt. Analyserna gjorda i denna studie blir därför inte fastställda och möjligtvis otillräckliga för att besvara den fråga som ställts. Jag som författare vill därför uppmana till att flera utvecklande studier inom ämnet bör utföras för att säkerställa möjliga resultat.
Consumer behaviour is today an important aspect of making quality decisions regarding policies on the consumer market. Both classical economical models and behavioural economical models are used to describe and predict these kinds of behaviours. Although todays studies on their connections to different methods of pricing are lacking. This paper tries to investigate what kind of impact a change in price by changing the size of the good has on demand. It also tries to produce an analysis on if this impact is connected with bevioural or classical economic theories. Based on a classical time-trend analysis together with an interrupted-time-series-analysis different trends for sales in KG regarding two substitutional products have been created. These determine that the effects on demand are most likely connected to behavioural economics but that the effects aren’t statistically significant. The analysis done in this paper therefore cannot be statistically determined and indicates that further studies on the subject need to be done to answer these questions with more certainty.
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Bonander, Carl. "Searching for causal effects of road traffic safety interventions : applications of the interrupted time series design." Licentiate thesis, Karlstads universitet, Institutionen för miljö- och livsvetenskaper, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-35781.

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Traffic-related injuries represent a global public health problem, and contribute largely to mortality and years lived with disability worldwide. Over the course of the last decades, improvements to road traffic safety and injury surveillance systems have resulted in a shift in focus from the prevention of motor vehicle accidents to the control of injury events involving vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as cyclists and moped riders. There have been calls for improvements to the evaluation of safety interventions due to methodological problems associated with the most commonly used study designs. The purpose of this licentiate thesis was to assess the strengths and limitations of the interrupted time series (ITS) design, which has gained some attention for its ability to provide valid effect estimates. Two national road safety interventions involving VRUs were selected as cases: the Swedish bicycle helmet law for children under the age 15, and the tightening of licensing rules for Class 1 mopeds. The empirical results suggest that both interventions were effective in improving the safety of VRUs. Unless other concurrent events affect the treatment population at the exact time of intervention, the effect estimates should be internally valid. One of the main limitations of the study design is the inability to identify why the interventions were successful, especially if they are complex and multifaceted. A lack of reliable exposure data can also pose a further threat to studies of interventions involving VRUs if the intervention can affect the exposure itself. It may also be difficult to generalize the exact effect estimates to other regions and populations. Future studies should consider the use of the ITS design to enhance the internal validity of before-after measurements.
Traffic-related injuries represent a global public health problem, and contribute largely to mortality and years lived with disability. Over the course of the last decades, improvements to road traffic safety and injury surveillance systems have resulted in a shift in focus from motor vehicle accidents to injury events involving vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as cyclists and moped riders. There have been calls for improvements to the evaluation of safety interventions due to methodological problems associated with the most commonly used study designs. The purpose of this licentiate thesis was to assess the strengths and limitations of the interrupted time series (ITS) design, which has gained some attention for its ability to provide valid effect estimates while accounting for secular trends. Two national interventions involving VRUs were selected as cases: the Swedish bicycle helmet law for children under the age 15, and the tightening of licensing rules for Class 1 mopeds. The empirical results suggest that both interventions were effective. These results are discussed in the light of some methodological considerations regarding internal and external validity, data quality and the ability to fully understand key causal mechanisms behind complex interventions.
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Akbari, Ayub. "Change in Referral Patterns to Nephrologists after Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) Reporting: An interrupted time series analysis." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/28785.

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Objectives: To update a Cochrane review of interventions to improve outpatient referral and to assess changes in referrals to nephrologists after initiating automatic estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reporting. Methods: Systematic review using standardized Cochrane methods. Before and after study with interrupted time series analysis using data from retrospective chart review on referrals from family medicine to nephrology. Results: Review added one new study and removed one for total of 17 studies. Referrals improved with education and structured referral sheets. Of 2766 eligible referrals for one-year pre-eGFR reporting to one-year post, 96.6% were reviewed. There was a 68.2% increase in referrals for chronic kidney disease (P < 0.01) and a 64.1% increase in total appropriate referrals (P =0.01) with no significant change in proportion of appropriate referrals (-2.5%, P=0.56). Conclusion: Systematic review findings did not change from the previous review. eGFR reporting increased both appropriate and inappropriate referrals.
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Condron, Aaron. "An impact evaluation of u.s. arms export controls on the u.s. defense industrial base an interrupted time-series analysis." Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2011. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/363.

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The United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers are the arms export controls of the US. These controls impose a divergence from the historical US foreign policy of furthering an open exchange of ideas and liberalized trade. These controls, imposed by the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State rigidly control all international presence of the Industry. The overlapping controls create an inability to conform to rapidly changing realpolitiks, leaving these controls in an archaic state. This, in turn, imposes a great deal of anxiety and expense upon managers within and outside of the USDIB. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analyses, this paper confirms that the implementation of or amendment to broad arms export controls correlates to significant and near immediate declines in USDIB export volumes. In the context of the US's share of world arms exports, these controls impose up to a 20% decline in export volume.
B.S.B.A.
Bachelors
Business Administration
Finance
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Donnelly, Neil James Public Health &amp Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine UNSW. "The use of interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the impact of Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme policies on drug utilisation in Australia." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Public Health and Community Medicine, 2005. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/22509.

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PROBLEM INVESTIGATED: Methodological issues and policy implications arising from the application of interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to assess the impact of Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS) subsidisation policies on drug utilisation in Australia. PROCEDURES FOLLOWED: A critical review of methodological issues relating to the application and analysis of ITS designs was undertaken. This included an examination of drug utilisation data sources in Australia. The PBS policies examined were: (i) the introduction of copayments in 1990; (ii) the introduction of re-supply limits in 1994 and (iii) the introduction of a form of reference pricing in 1998. Monthly aggregate drug utilisation data was obtained from the Australian Department of Health and Ageing. Segmented regression analyses incorporating autocorrelated errors were implemented and statistical diagnostics applied to ensure correct ITS model specification. Alternative seasonal modelling approaches were compared. RESULTS OBTAINED: The copayment ITS evaluation found that while these copayments produced a reduction in the utilisation of essential and discretionary medications, this effect was stronger for discretionary drugs. An unintended policy effect was a large anticipatory increase in drug utilisation during the month prior to the copayments. Repatriation PBS data was also utilised due to the limited number of pre-intervention data points in the Community series. The re-supply limit ITS evaluation found that the 20-day rule markedly reduced the size of the seasonal increase during the month of December. However, logistic regression analyses showed that the size of this reduction attenuated over time, highlighting the need to consider alternative analysis strategies when applying a ITS approach. The reference pricing ITS evaluation found that this policy had achieved its drug utilisation objectives for H2RAs and ACE Inhibitors. However with regard to CCBs, no increase in the utilisation of benchmark priced drug was apparent, which probably reflected clinical concerns at the time about the safety of these drugs. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Well implemented ITS analyses provide a valuable tool for evaluating the impact of PBS subsidisation policy change on drug utilisation in Australia. As with any methodology, however, different design and data integrity issues will affect the quality of information provided.
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Kylén, Linda. "Utvärdering av mötesfria vägar : Analys av olyckor på mötesfria vägar i Karlstadsregionen." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Fakulteten för hälsa, natur- och teknikvetenskap (from 2013), 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-33081.

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Sedan år 1998 har det i Nollvisionens fotspår startats ett utvecklingsprogram i Sverige som syftar till att omvandla gamla 13 meters landsvägar och motortrafikleder till mötesfria. Implementeringen var tänkt att påtagligt reducera antalet mötes- och omkörningsolyckor samt singelolyckor med svåra konsekvenser i form av svårt skadade och dödade utan att försämra trafiksäkerheten i övrigt. Syftet med denna studie är att göra en effektmätning av de mötesfria vägarnas införande i Karlstadsregionen samt att göra en sammanställning av de olycksrisker mötesfria vägar omfattas av. Frågeställningarna som används i studien är: - Har det blivit säkrare på vägarna sedan implementeringen av mötesfria vägar i Karlstadsregionen? - Hur sker olyckor på mötesfria vägar inom Karlstadsregionen?  För att beskriva hur olyckor sker på mötesfria vägar inom Karlstadsregionen har en deskriptiv analys tillämpats som grundats på de beskrivningar av händelseförlopp som dokumenterats i STRADA och CORE, mellan åren 2010-2013. För att avgöra huruvida vägarna blivit säkrare sedan implementering tillämpades en segmenterad linjär regressionsanalys där antalet personskadeolyckor studerats, tre år innan och tre år efter ombyggnad för respektive vägavsnitt. Singel- och upphinnandeolyckor var de dominerande olyckstyperna på mötesfria vägar i Karlstadsregionen mellan åren 2010-2013 då de sammanlagt stod för 72,3% av samtliga olyckor som medfört skada. Vid kategoriseringen av huvudorsak till olycka framgick det att 42% av alla olyckor kan spåras till brister i samspel mellan trafikanter och väderförhållanden bedömdes i 24,1% av fallen vara huvudorsak till olycka. Den statistiska analysen var inte signifikant, men gav indikation på att vägarna blivit säkrare sedan implementering då trenden för samtliga skadade minskat.
In the footsteps of Vision Zero, a development program in Sweden was initiated in 1998. The program aimed to increase road safety on existing 13-meter roads and express roads by implementing median barriers. The purpose of this study is to measure the impact of the transformed roadways in the Karlstad region and to examine the different types of accident risks the roadways are covered by. The research questions used are: - Has the implementation of median barriers in the Karlstad region contributed to safer roads? - How do accidents occur on roads with median barriers? To describe how accidents occur on roads with median barriers in Karlstad region a descriptive analysis was made by the description of event that is documented in STRADA and CORE, between the years 2010-2013. To determine whether the roads became safer after implementation a segmented linear regression analysis was applied. Accidents resulting in injury were examined, three years before and three years after reconstruction for each road section. Single-vehicle accidents and rear-end collisions were the dominating accident types on roadways with median barriers in the Karlstad region between the years 2010-2013. They together accounted for 72,3% of all accidents that resulted in injury. When the main cause of accident was examined, it emerged that 42% of all accidents could be traced to deficiencies in the interaction between road users. Weather conditions were estimated to be the main cause of accident in 24,1% of all the studied cases. The statistical analysis was not significant, but indicated that the roads became safer after the implementation since the observed trend for all types of injured decreased.
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Ma, Xinyi. "The effect of the random breath testing policy in Australia." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/10281.

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Road crashes are a major cause of death and serious injuries in many countries and extract a high cost on society. Drink driving is one of the most important reasons for road crashes. Many countries have enacted drink-driving policy and legislation. In Australia, Random Breath Testing (RBT) program is the main legislation against drink driving. This research examines the effect of RBT program by investigating whether RBT program is effective in reducing road accident rates; and whether there is a relationship between increased RBT enforcement level and decreased road accident rates. The road accident data from New South Wales (NSW), Queensland (QLD), Western Australia (WA) and Tasmania (TAS) in Australia during the time period 1978-1992 are analysed in three models. Model 1 investigates the effect of RBT program using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, finding that the RBT program is effective in reducing road accident rates in all four States. Model 2 estimates the effect of RBT enforcement level on road accident rates. The results of Model 2 indicate that increasing RBT enforcement level reduces fatal accident rate (TFAR) in all States, reduces single-vehicle night-time accident rate (SVNAR) in all States except QLD, and reduces serious accident rate (TSAR) in WA and TAS. In addition, the implemented RBT enforcement levels are found effective in NSW, below effective level in WA, and above effective level in QLD and TAS. Model 3 reexamines the effect of RBT enforcement level on road accident rates without imposing any functional form of the RBT enforcement level using the semiparametric regression model. The estimation results in Model 3 are generally consistent with the findings in Model 2, in the sense that increasing RBT enforcement level is effective in reducing road accident rates only when RBT enforcement level lies within a specific range for each State. Conclusions, policy implications and limitations are discussed at the end of the thesis.
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Afonso, Eliane Terezinha. "Impacto da vacinação com a PCV10 na morbidade hospitalar por pneumonia no Brasil: análise de série temporal interrompida." Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2015. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/5507.

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BACKGROUND: Pneumonia causes substantial morbidity and mortality in all age groups around the world. The 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the routine infant immunization in Brazil, free of charge, in March 2010. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact PCV10 vaccination on rates of all cause pneumonia hospitalizations one year and three years after its introduction in Brazil. METHODS: We conducted two interrupted time series analysis studies. The first evaluated only the direct effect of PCV10 vaccination, in five Brazilian cities (Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, São Paulo and Recife), and was conducted one year after starting the vaccination. The second study evaluated the direct and indirect impact (individuals not vaccinated) of PCV10 vaccination in Brazil, and was conducted three years after vaccination. We used data from the Brazilian Hospitalization System from 2005-2013. The main outcome was monthly rates of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations identified by ICD-10 codes J12-J18. We used hospitalization rates for congenital malformations and non-respiratory causes as a comparison groups. The time-series analysis was based on a generalized linear model. Pneumonia rates observed in the pre-vaccination period were used to estimate the hospitalization rates in the post-vaccination period of each study, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends. To estimate the direct (2-23 months of age) and indirect (≥5 years of age) impact of PCV10 vaccination, we calculated the percentage change in hospitalization rates, as the observed divided by the predicted rates of hospitalization in the post-intervention period minus one, with respective 95% CI and p values. The number of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations averted by vaccination was calculated taking into account the difference between the predicted and observed number in the PCV10 post vaccination period. RESULTS: One year after introduction of PCV10 in Brazil, significant declines in hospitalizations for pneumonia in children aged 2-23 months were noted in Belo Horizonte (28.7%), Curitiba (23.3%), and Recife (27.4%). After three years of the introduction of PCV10, 461,519 pneumonia hospitalizations were averted in Brazil, and a significant decrease in rates of pneumonia hospitalization was observed in unvaccinated individuals aged 5-39 years, ranging from 14.1-17.4% (p<0.05). In contrast, an increased trend in pneumonia hospitalizations (p=0·004) was observed for elderly (≥ 65 years). CONCLUSION: Vaccination with PCV10 in Brazil was associated with reduction of pneumonia hospitalizations in vaccinated individuals. Herd effect was observed in individuals aged 5-39 years after three years of vaccination. Potential reasons for the increased trend in pneumonia hospitalization rates in the elderly should be investigated.
INTRODUÇÃO: As pneumonias contribuem com alta carga de morbimortalidades em todo mundo. No Brasil, a vacina pneumocócica conjugada 10 valente (PCV10) foi introduzida na rotina de imunização da infância em março de 2010. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar o impacto da vacinação nas taxas de hospitalizações por pneumonia no Brasil no curto e médio prazo do início da vacinação. METODOLOGIA: Dois estudos de séries temporais interrompidas foram conduzidos. O primeiro avaliou o efeito direto da vacinação em cinco capitais brasileiras (Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, São Paulo e Recife) e foi conduzido após um ano de introdução da PCV10 no país. O segundo estudo avaliou o impacto direto e indireto (população não vacinada) da vacinação em todo país e foi conduzido três anos após sua introdução. Os dados de hospitalizações foram obtidos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH-SUS) de 2005 a 2013. O desfecho principal foi a taxa mensal de hospitalização por pneumonia definida pelos códigos J12-J18 da CID10. As taxas de hospitalizações por malformações congênitas e causas não respiratórias foram utilizadas como grupos de comparações. A análise de série temporal utilizou um modelo de regressão linear generalizado. As taxas de hospitalizações por pneumonia observadas no período pré-PCV10, ajustadas por tendência secular e sazonalidade, foram utilizadas para estimar as taxas no período pós-PCV10. O impacto da vacinação para cada faixa etária foi calculado como o percentual de mudança nas taxas de hospitalizações, dividindo-se as taxas observadas pelas taxas preditas do período pós PCV10, menos um. Os respectivos IC95% e os valores de p foram apresentados. O número de hospitalizações por pneumonia evitadas após três anos de vacinação foi estimado pela diferença entre os números de hospitalizações por pneumonia preditos e observados no período pós-vacinação. RESULTADOS: Após um ano de introdução da PCV10 no Brasil, observou-se significativo declínio nas taxas de hospitalizações por pneumonia em crianças de 2 a 23 meses em três das cinco capitais estudadas: Belo Horizonte (28,7%), Curitiba (23,3%), e Recife (27,4%). Após três anos da introdução da PCV10, 461.519 hospitalizações por pneumonia foram evitadas no Brasil e um significativo declínio nas taxas de pneumonia foi observado em indivíduos não vacinados de 5 a 39 anos variando de 14,1% a 17,4% (p<0,05). No entanto, observou-se um aumento significativo (9,9%, p=0,004) nas taxas de hospitalizações por pneumonia para idosos ≥65 anos. CONCLUSÕES: A vacinação com a PCV10 foi associada à significativa redução das hospitalizações por pneumonia na infância. Adicionalmente, o estudo evidenciou importante redução das hospitalizações por pneumonia em grupos etários não vacinados, sinalizando efeito indireto conferida pela vacina. A tendência de aumento das hospitalizações por pneumonias em idosos necessita de investigações para elucidação dos fatores envolvidos nesse fenômeno.
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Books on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Time series analysis. Boston: Duxbury Press, 1986.

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Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ, USA: Princeton University Press, 1994.

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Ostrom, Charles. Time Series Analysis. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks California 91320 United States of America: SAGE Publications, Inc., 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781412986366.

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Madsen, Henrik. Time series analysis. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2008.

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Tanaka, Katsuto. Time Series Analysis. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119132165.

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Cryer, Jonathan D., and Kung-Sik Chan. Time Series Analysis. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75959-3.

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Time series analysis. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2016.

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Maurice, Kendall. Time series. 3rd ed. Sevenoaks: Edward Arnold, 1993.

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1963-, Schreiber Thomas, ed. Nonlinear time series analysis. 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

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Sayrs, Lois. Pooled Time Series Analysis. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks California 91320 United States of America: SAGE Publications, Inc., 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781412985420.

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Book chapters on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Apel, Robert, and Henda Y. Hsu. "Interrupted Time Series Analysis in the Study of Terrorism." In The Handbook of the Criminology of Terrorism, 276–93. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118923986.ch18.

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Maaskant, J. M., and B. J. Laan. "Interrupted time series." In Onderzoek langs de meetlat, 19–24. Houten: Bohn Stafleu van Loghum, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-368-2600-6_4.

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McDowall, David, and Richard McCleary. "Interrupted Time Series Models." In Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 2653–65. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-5690-2_184.

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Anderson, Alan J. B. "Longitudinal studies and interrupted time series." In Interpreting Data, 201–9. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-3192-4_18.

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Brandt, Siegmund. "Time Series Analysis." In Data Analysis, 331–40. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03762-2_13.

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Brandt, Siegmund. "Time Series Analysis." In Data Analysis, 427–40. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1446-5_13.

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Arkes, Jeremy. "Time-series models." In Regression Analysis, 287–314. 2nd ed. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003285007-10.

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Baltagi, Badi H. "Time-Series Analysis." In Solutions Manual for Econometrics, 341–67. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03383-4_14.

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Baltagi, Badi H. "Time-Series Analysis." In Econometrics, 363–86. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58714-6_14.

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Chatfield, Christopher. "Time-series analysis." In Problem Solving, 154–60. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-3017-0_19.

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Conference papers on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Wright, Bri'Ann. "Turnaround Arts Pilot Program: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis." In 2022 AERA Annual Meeting. Washington DC: AERA, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3102/1887957.

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Morrison, Christopher, Sara Jacoby, Beidi Dong, M. Kit Delgado, and Douglas Wiebe. "36 An interrupted time-series analysis of ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes in us cities." In SAVIR 2017. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042560.36.

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Khoabane, Selloane. "Impact of COVID-19 on Lesotho’s Consumer Price Index: Evidence from Interrupted Time Series Analysis (ITSA)." In 3rd International Conference on Management, Economics and Finance. ACAVENT, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.33422/3rd.icmef.2021.02.132.

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Bayoumi, Imaan, Tara Kiran, Richard Glazier, Eliot Frymire, Shahriar Khan, Michael Green, Kamila Premji, and Liisa Jaakkimainen. "Trends in Attachment to a Primary Care Provider in Ontario 2008-2018: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis." In NAPCRG 50th Annual Meeting — Abstracts of Completed Research 2022. American Academy of Family Physicians, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1370/afm.21.s1.3867.

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Mercer, Joey, Sarah Hunt Espinosa, Nancy Bienert, and Sean Laraway. "Differing air traffic controller responses to similar trajectory prediction errors: An interrupted time-series analysis of controller behavior." In 2016 IEEE/AIAA 35th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dasc.2016.7777977.

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Yu, W., and G. D. Thurston. "An Evaluation of the Respiratory Impacts of the Closure of a Coking Operation - An Interrupted Time Series Analysis." In American Thoracic Society 2022 International Conference, May 13-18, 2022 - San Francisco, CA. American Thoracic Society, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2022.205.1_meetingabstracts.a3568.

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Mishima, Y., M. Asada, Y. Hadano, M. Nagashima, Y. Aiso, Y. Shibuya, M. Sugii, et al. "The Impact of Antibiotic Time Outs in Multidisciplinary ICU Rounds for Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in Japan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis." In American Thoracic Society 2020 International Conference, May 15-20, 2020 - Philadelphia, PA. American Thoracic Society, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1164/ajrccm-conference.2020.201.1_meetingabstracts.a7821.

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Mulissa, Zewdie, Naod Wendrad, Befikadu Bitewulign, Abera Biadgo, Mehiret Abate, Haregeweyni Alemu, Biruk Abate, Abiyou Kiflie, Hema Magge, and Gareth Parry. "21 Effect of data quality improvement intervention on health management information system data accuracy: an interrupted time series analysis." In IHI Scientific Symposium, Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center Orlando, Florida, 9th December 2019. British Medical Journal Publishing Group, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjoq-2019-ihi.21.

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Chen, HY, CH Lee, KC Chang, WH Chang, and SC Shao. "5PSQ-195 Impact of intensified clinical decision support systems on prescribing errors: an interrupted time series analysis in Taiwan." In 25th Anniversary EAHP Congress, Hospital Pharmacy 5.0 – the future of patient care, 23–28 March 2021. British Medical Journal Publishing Group, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/ejhpharm-2021-eahpconf.314.

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Farina, I., E. Galuppi, G. Ciancio, C. De Giorgio, CA Scire', and M. Govoni. "AB0227 Impact of early arthritis clinic on the rate of treatment with biologics in rheumatoid arthritis: interrupted time series analysis." In Annual European Congress of Rheumatology, 14–17 June, 2017. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and European League Against Rheumatism, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2017-eular.6481.

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Reports on the topic "Interrupted Time Series Analysis"

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Baicker, Katherine, and Theodore Svoronos. Testing the Validity of the Single Interrupted Time Series Design. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w26080.

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Mwebe, Robert, Chester Kalinda, Ekwaro A. Obuku, Eve Namisango, Alison A. Kinengyere, Moses Ocan, Ann Nanteza, Savino Biryomumaisho, and Lawrence Mugisha. Epidemiology and effectiveness of interventions for Foot and Mouth Disease in Africa: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis. INPLASY - International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2022.11.0039.

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Abstract:
Review question / Objective: What is the epidemiology and effectiveness of control measures for foot and mouth disease in African countries?’ PICOS: Description of elements Population/ problem/Setting: Artiodactyla (cloven ungulates), domestic (cattle, sheep, goats, and pigs), camels and wildlife (buffaloes, deer, antelope, wild pigs, elephant, giraffe, and camelids) affected by Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) or Hoof and Mouth Disease (HMD) caused by the Foot and Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV) in Africa. Intervention: Prevention measures: vaccination, ‘biosafety and biosecurity’, sensitization of the public. Control measures: quarantine, movement control, closure of markets and stock routes, mouth swabbing of animals with infected materials (old technique that is no long applicable), culling, mass slaughter, stamping out and any other interventions or control measures generally accepted by the ‘community of practice’ of animal health practitioners. Comparator: areas that did not have any control activities for FMD, in head-to-head comparisons in the same study. Outcome: epidemiological outcomes: incidence, prevalence, patterns or trends, clinical symptoms, and risk factors. Effectiveness outcomes: success, and usefulness of the interventions measured as averted deaths, illness and infections, and costs associated with the interventions (cost–effectiveness). Study design: epidemiological designs include cohort design for incidence, cross sectional for prevalence and case-control for clinical symptoms and risk factors. Interventional designs include randomized controlled trials, cluster randomized trials, quasi-experimental designs – controlled before and after, interrupted time series, [regression discontinuity design, difference-in-difference, and propensity score matching]. Timelines: 1900 – 2022.
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Anderson, Theodore W. Time Series Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, November 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada202273.

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Anderson, Theodore W. Time Series Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada161375.

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Lai, Eric, Daniel Moyer, Baichuan Yuan, Eric Fox, Blake Hunter, Andrea L. Bertozzi, and Jeffrey Brantingham. Topic Time Series Analysis of Microblogs. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, October 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada610278.

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Friedman, Avner, Jr Miller, and Willard. Radar/Sonar and Time Series Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, April 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada238496.

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Lipsett, J. J., R. D. Noble, and D. D. S. Liu. Time series analysis of gamma densitometry signals. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/302665.

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Langdon, Chris. Analysis of Arabian Sea Oxygen Time Series. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada628003.

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Lewis, Peter A., and A. J. Lawrance. Reversed Residuals in Autoregressive Time Series Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, April 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada222711.

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Parzen, Emanuel. Stationary Time Series Analysis Using Information and Spectral Analysis. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, September 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada257279.

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