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Bidewell, John. "Decision making in personal investment /." Connect to full text, 2003. http://setis.library.usyd.edu.au/adt/public_html/adt-NU/public/adt-NU20031219.140243/index.html.
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Bidewell, John W. "Decision making in personal investment." Connect to full text, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/517.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Sydney, 2003.Title from title screen (viewed Apr. 29, 2008). Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the School of Psychology, Faculty of Science. Includes bibliography. Also available in print form.
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Bidewell, John William. "Decision making in personal investment." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/517.
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Personal investors must postpone gratification and manage risk. This thesis examines the effects of delay and risk on personal investment decisions. The delay discounting literature is employed in developing a new parameter �ki� which integrates an investment�s term and interest rate with the hyperbolic delay discounting model. By indicating the extent to which compound interest growth compensates for hyperbolic delay discounting, ki should strongly predict the subjective appeal of prospective investment returns. Six binary-choice experiments test this hypothesis, especially via a subsidiary hypothesis that exponential growth from compound interest will eventually compensate for delay, given a sufficient term. Analyses include a novel application of signal detection principles, which found ki a superior predictor of investment appraisals compared to the normative exponential delay discounting model. Subject to boundary conditions of term and investment amount, results support the predictive capacity of ki for gross returns, implying a hitherto unrecognised degree of predictability for investment decisions. To investigate perceptions of risk with delay, three additional experiments compared preferences among hypothetical investments with varying risk and term. Risk seeking and risk aversion were detected, consistent with individual differences in hyperbolic probability discounting rates. Excessive risk aversion proved the greater problem, encouraging unnecessarily conservative investment decisions. Unexpectedly, no evidence of delay discounted risk was found. Responses consistent with higher probability discounting of larger amounts occurred, but only for a longer rather than a shorter investment term. A survey of postgraduate finance students examined how investment past performance is interpreted. Participants evaluated annual returns from hypothetical 10-year investments that varied in their mean return, volatility, and sequence of high and low returns. Evaluations generally reflected underlying investment properties. Maladaptive appraisal tendencies included unwarranted attention to the order in which high and low returns occurred within a series. Overall for this dissertation, results suggest that delay and probability discounting theory has practical relevance for understanding personal investment decisions. The principles and methodology in this dissertation are applicable to other varieties of financial and consumer behaviour.
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Bidewell, John William. "Decision making in personal investment." University of Sydney. Psychology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/517.
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Personal investors must postpone gratification and manage risk. This thesis examines the effects of delay and risk on personal investment decisions. The delay discounting literature is employed in developing a new parameter �ki� which integrates an investment�s term and interest rate with the hyperbolic delay discounting model. By indicating the extent to which compound interest growth compensates for hyperbolic delay discounting, ki should strongly predict the subjective appeal of prospective investment returns. Six binary-choice experiments test this hypothesis, especially via a subsidiary hypothesis that exponential growth from compound interest will eventually compensate for delay, given a sufficient term. Analyses include a novel application of signal detection principles, which found ki a superior predictor of investment appraisals compared to the normative exponential delay discounting model. Subject to boundary conditions of term and investment amount, results support the predictive capacity of ki for gross returns, implying a hitherto unrecognised degree of predictability for investment decisions. To investigate perceptions of risk with delay, three additional experiments compared preferences among hypothetical investments with varying risk and term. Risk seeking and risk aversion were detected, consistent with individual differences in hyperbolic probability discounting rates. Excessive risk aversion proved the greater problem, encouraging unnecessarily conservative investment decisions. Unexpectedly, no evidence of delay discounted risk was found. Responses consistent with higher probability discounting of larger amounts occurred, but only for a longer rather than a shorter investment term. A survey of postgraduate finance students examined how investment past performance is interpreted. Participants evaluated annual returns from hypothetical 10-year investments that varied in their mean return, volatility, and sequence of high and low returns. Evaluations generally reflected underlying investment properties. Maladaptive appraisal tendencies included unwarranted attention to the order in which high and low returns occurred within a series. Overall for this dissertation, results suggest that delay and probability discounting theory has practical relevance for understanding personal investment decisions. The principles and methodology in this dissertation are applicable to other varieties of financial and consumer behaviour.
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Loo, Steve C. K. (Chung Keung Steve) Carleton University Dissertation Management Studies. "An examination of the decision making process in AMT investment decisions." Ottawa, 1987.
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Hsieh, George Kuo-Liang 1975. "VC's decision factor in semiconductor investment." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/29713.
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Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2003.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 85-89).
This thesis examines the relationship between the semiconductor industry and venture capital ("VC") industry in China and Taiwan. Taiwan has established an impressive semiconductor industry by encouraging high technology investment for the past two decades; on the other hand, Mainland China is currently emerging as a new and strong entrant with a huge domestic market and resourceful human capital as its support. In the past few years, most of the Taiwanese and Chinese companies were funded by the VC industry that fueled their expansion. Lots of successful investments were made and enormous profits were realized. Nevertheless, the industry environment remains very capital intensive and technology can be easily disrupted by new generations of wafer fabs, making intelligent investments in the semiconductor industry is unpredictable. From the perspective of the VC firms, this thesis first provides a general description of the semiconductor industry, its historical development, the current state of Taiwanese IC Design Industry and a Porter's analysis of the industry outlook. By interviewing the venture capitalists in the Asia-Pacific region, the thesis analyzes what decision factors VC firms must consider in investing in the semiconductor industry in China Lastly, the thesis analyzes which characteristics of the Semiconductor Industry/IC Design sector affect how VC firms invest, how the investment process differs when investing in a semiconductor case and how different members of the VC team affect the investment process. By comparing between a generalist VC and a specialist VC, this thesis seeks to determine which firm has a long-term competitive advantage.
by George Kuo-Liang Hsieh.
S.M.M.O.T.
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Arif, Farrukh. "A Decision Support Framework for Infrastructure Maintenance Investment Decision-Making." FIU Digital Commons, 2013. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1002.
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Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments.
Decision parameters’ performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.
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Kapur, Sandeep. "Flexibility in decision-making." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.241019.
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Quinn, Fiona. "The Foreign Direct Investment Location Decision: A Contingency Model of the Foreign Direct Investment Location Decision-Making Process." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/9062.
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Despite considerable prior research into foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions, our understanding of the processes underlying such decisions is still limited. Findings from work based in the economics and behavioral theories of the multinational enterprise (MNE) both acknowledge that FDI is not a point-of-time decision but a gradual process that yields important changes over its duration. However, these competing traditions both fall short when attempting to portray the actual process by which FDI location decisions are made by managers in MNEs. This gap has been recently attributed to two interrelated limitations. Firstly, level of analysis concerns have artificially separated managerial decision-making processes from the organizational and environmental structures within which they are made. Secondly, because of the complexity inherent in the FDI location decision environment, the study of these decisions has not taken contextual factors into consideration. This study addresses three important questions in order to build our understanding of the FDI location decision-making processes: (1) What are the decision-making processes that lead to FDI location choice? (2) What is the impact of contextual variables on FDI location decision-making processes at different levels of analysis, and are there any patterns of variation in decision processes under different decision conditions? (3) What factors drive final FDI location choice, and can a useful framework or theory be developed that links FDI location decision-making processes and context to drivers of FDI location choice? In order to address level of analysis concerns, the study places the manager at the center of the FDI location decision in modeling and in research, a strategy recommended by an emerging stream of behavioral-focused international business research (Aharoni, 2010; Buckley et al., 2007; Devinney, 2011). By examining FDI location decisions from the perspective of the managers who implement them, it is possible to clarify the nature of processes that lead to FDI location choice, and identify the impact of different elements of decision maker, firm and environmental context on such processes. The conceptual framework builds on Aharoni’s (1966) pivotal research while incorporating findings from broader behavioral managerial decision models and international business research. The framework is based on the assumption that FDI location decision-making processes and final choice are contingent upon interactions between the environmental, firm and decision maker context under which the decision is made. The research was undertaken in three phases. Phase 1 included a literature review that covered research on the MNE, internationalization, and decision making. The findings of the review identified key aspects of FDI location decision context and led to the development of an initial contingency framework of strategic decision making. Phase 2 consisted of an exploratory case study of twenty four FDI location decisions. The initial contingency framework developed during the literature review was used during this stage to identify the relationship between decision-making processes and contextual variables at the case decisions. By drawing on results from the exploratory research, an initial conceptual model and a set of propositions were developed. In Phase 3, twenty case studies were theoretically sampled from a pool of MNEs of varying size and parent-country nationality within the knowledge-based industries. The data collection and analysis followed a process, event-driven approach to case study research involving the mapping of key sequences of events as well as within- and cross-case analysis. The results identify the key elements of the decision process that explain FDI location behavior and develop a framework that links them together and makes them sensible. The four key elements of the FDI location decision that comprise the framework include: (i) the process, (ii) the context, (iii) patterns, and (iv) location. Research findings show the FDI location decision process as comprising of five broad stages, the content of each driven by a dynamic and evolving interpretation of maximum subjective expected utility. Utility preferences are identified as the consequence of shifting and opaque goals, founded upon imperfect information, operating in an environment marked by uncertainty. Five variations in the overall orientation of utility at case decisions, classified in the study as ‘decision rules,’ proved to be more useful predictors of decision-making behavior than traditional notions of bounded rationality seeking rent extraction and profitability. Decision processes were found to vary in five prototypical patterns, according to clusters of contextual variables that together moderated the level of decision-maker autonomy, hierarchical centralization, rule formalization, commitment to strategy, and politicization of the decision. Patterns are described as FDI location decision-making models, and proposed as an initial step towards the development of a taxonomy of FDI location decision-making processes. Because of the dynamic and staged nature of the process, findings showed that factors that were important at one stage of the decision were not as important at the next. As such, the task of identifying universal drivers of FDI location was deemed an unfeasible one. In place of universal drivers, the initiating force of the investment, the purpose of investment and information sources and networks are identified as the key context-specific determinants of location in FDI decisions. Bounded by uncertainty, chance, the dynamics of the process and decision-maker effects, each of these aspects of the decision served to limit the possible consideration set for investment, and formed the value basis and measures from which to select the most attractive location choice. Despite the contextual differences in these drivers, however, the study revealed a strong pattern that showed that the importance of specific location considerations differed in much the same way across case decisions. During the first stage of case decisions primarily strategic aspects of locations were considered; during the second, considerations relating to the system; operational concerns in the third; implementation concerns in the fourth; and added value factors in the final choice. How each of these concerns was interpreted to reach final location choice differed according to the drivers mentioned previously, although the patterns were the same. This study develops a contingency framework for examining the FDI location decision-making processes of MNEs under different operating conditions. By identifying the four key components of the FDI location decision, their interrelationships and many sources of variance, this thesis shows that despite its complexity, the FDI location decision is amenable to useful conceptual structuring. From an academic standpoint, the framework answers Aharoni’s most recent call to action in ‘Behavioral Elements in Foreign Direct Investment’ (2010) by developing a replicable structure within which to think about incorporating managerial decision models and context into the theory of the MNE. These findings enhance understandings of decision making at MNEs, reconcile a number of inconsistencies between opposing perspectives of MNE theory, and thereby update extant theory so that it has greater relevance in today’s diverse international business environment. From a managerial standpoint, the thesis helps managers to recognize the opportunities and limitations posed by different aspects of decision context so that they are able to tailor their FDI location decision strategies to best suit their needs. Finally, from the perspective of policy markers, research findings provide great support for the use of investment attraction schemes through the use of targeted location marketing and investment incentives.
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Golubeva, Olga. "Foreign Investment Decision-Making in Transition Economies." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, 2001. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-24749.
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The purpose of this project is to describe and explain the foreign investment decision process in the uncertain and turbulent environment of transition economy. By getting an in-depth understanding of how decision-making works in the environment of transition economy, the study intends to contribute to the development of business administration theory in the area of foreign investment decision-making, particularly its application in the turbulent and uncertain world. Theoretical ‘blocks’, elaborated on the basis of literature study, include the following concepts: the framework of transition economy; initial motivation (or reasons) of companies to make foreign direct investments (FDI); investigation of the investment climate and information collection methods; project evaluation and investment decision criteria; risk assessment factors and risk reduction measures. Transition economy is defined in the study as ‘a non-planned, non-market economy’ where the new emerging market institutions coexist with the bureaucracy and hierarchy inherited from the old administrative system. Investment projects, therefore, should probably be seen as being under institutional influence from both the local (i.e. transition economy) and the Western investor’s home country environments. The empirical data presented in the paper also shows that it is necessary to establish the relevant economic, legal, political and social institutions in order to attract FDI. The study further includes the analysis of the main components and features of transition economies and their influence on FDI decision-making. One of the results of the study is that FDI decision-making in transition economies is largely consistent with different theoretical approaches suggested in the literature. On the other hand, the empirical support obtained for different theoretical approaches is often questionable and opened to alternative interpretations. The presented project suggests that theoretical perspectives do not preclude each other, but rather have a complimentary character. The study attempts to contribute to the mainstream FDI theories through a firm-level approach based on the case studies. Two in-depth case studies are presented in the paper: Ericsson’s direct investments in Russia and Vattenfall’s investments in the Baltic countries. A formal questionnaire based on the parameters of theoretical ‘blocks’ was created and 25 top executives from Ericsson and Vattenfall who participated in FDI decision-making were surveyed. The empirical investigation took place during the period 1997 - 1998 with partial updating of the cases during the year 2000. The study shows that where companies confront stable environments, investment decision routines and procedures will be less necessary and important than where market uncertainty is high. The strong appreciation of the local business partners for properly done investment calculations increases the importance of capital budgeting in transition economies more than in developed market economies. Besides, traditional investment appraisal methods provide managers with an ‘objective’ or ‘materialistic’ feedback for the decision-making in the rapidly changing uncertain environment. On the other hand, the study emphasises the importance of strategy over financial techniques and argues that FDI decisions in transition economies should be based on methods consistent with the company’s long-term objectives. In case of permanent changes, new approaches as well as better co-ordination of traditional techniques with strategic, political, historical, geographical and cultural issues are required. Ericsson’ s direct investments in Russia are presented in the paper in connection with other factors: the company’s historical involvement in Russia, marketing strategy, human resource development, privatisation and restructuring of the telecommunication sector in Russia, etc. Nordic Electric Power Co-operation (Nordel), the EU’ s decision in 1996 to create an internal electricity market in Europe, Baltic ring study, future plans to privatise the energy companies in the Baltic countries, etc., are the framework to present the second case. An application of project evaluation and risk assessment techniques for broader and more complicated environments shows that investment decision-making is probably as much, if not more, a social, political and cultural technology as an economic one. The study argues then that the rational choice decision-making model often co-exists with alternative models elaborated in social science - limited rationality, political and garbage can. According to the empirical data, the investment decisions are largely based on intuition, business experience and judgement, personal contacts with representatives from the local country, and these investment criteria are inevitable and acceptable in a situation of total chaos and permanent change. The right chosen partner, for example, is one of the major criteria for the success of the investment project in a transition economy. One of the outcomes of this study is that the revitalised form of investment decision-making will differ rather markedly from much of what has gone before: less emphasis on the quantitative aspects of capital budgeting, more on the qualitative aspects of companies and investment environment. The project also argues that determinants, approaches and criteria of investment activity in transition economies are largely consistent with patterns observed in other parts of the world. A few specific environmental conditions of transition economies, however, are shown in the study to affect the pattern of FDI decision-making. The level of turbulence is still different compared to the developed market economies due to uncertainties and unpredictibilities associated with environment of transition economies. Other major differences are the large power distance with authoritarian leadership, strong hierarchy and bureaucracy as well as the vital role of personal contacts in transition economies. It is not clear, however, if these features of transition economies should be seen as inherited from the past communist system or as an alternative way to organise the economic actors through networks, a way that is natural and appropriate for the majority of Asian societies.
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Heitzenrater, Chad D. "Software security investment modelling for decision-support." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:64ddd45e-87ab-4c92-a085-df2d0d4e22e0.
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While it is widely agreed that contemporary computer security is insufficient to meet the challenges faced, the remedies for its failures are far less obvious. Vast resources have been placed into technical solutions to little effect, prompting some to employ the constructs of economics to frame this problem as one to be 'managed', rather than 'solved'. However, to date economically-inspired decision support approaches have focused disproportionately on post-deployment security investment. With the preponderance of security issues stemming from the introduction of vulnerabilities during design and development, models that span the system development lifecycle are essential to efficiently address the root of many security issues. In addition, the need to impact system security at a fundamental level requires integration with existing security-development processes and standards. This dissertation presents an approach to secure software development that is derived from an economically-inspired understanding of security. After demonstrating how existing security guidance can give rise to inefficient decisions, models for security investment are developed that incorporate investments made in software security during system inception and development relative to those made during deployment and operations. By employing these models, conditions are identified whereby software security improves the return on (security) investment, and provide theoretical and empirical evidence to support the adoption of software security. This is followed by an exploration of how economic considerations can drive existing secure software engineering processes, culminating in a case study that illustrates the application of these principles to an ongoing system development effort.
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Stafford, D. (Daniel). "Cross-border venture capital investment decision making." Bachelor's thesis, University of Oulu, 2016. http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-201605251912.
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Danso, A., T. Lartey, J. Amankwah-Amoah, Samuel Adomako, Q. Lu, and M. Uddin. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making." Elsevier, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17159.
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YesWhile research on factors driving corporate investment decisions has blossomed, knowledge related to the Chief Executive Officer’s (CEO’s) market sentiment on investment decision outcomes is lacking. In this study, we extend the existing corporate finance literature by examining the underexplored issue of how CEOs’ market sentiment drives firms’ investment decisions. Capitalising on a large sample of US firms for the period 2004-2014, we uncovered some crucial observations. First, we found empirical support for our theoretical contention that market sentiment drives corporate investment decisions. Second, we established that, while financial flexibility induces managers to overinvest, the expectation of future profitability leads firms to underinvest during high sentiment periods. In addition, we uncovered that the 2007/08 financial crisis significantly impacted firm behaviour and realigned managerial decision-making. Thus, the sentiment-investment relationship is more pronounced during the crisis and the post-crisis periods. Our results are robust after accounting for the possibility of endogeneity and using alternative measures of both CEOs’ market sentiment and firm investment.
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James, Matthew Gary Robert. "Decision making for investment in residential real estate." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/10868.
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Investment in residential real estate involves almost all members of the public at some stage of their lives, whether this be one's first home or the purchasing of one‟s first investment property. Understanding how to maximise the return on one's investment is something that can benefit the investor from before the investment is made until after the property has been sold, if it is sold at all. Literature surveys have concluded that there are a number of variables to consider when maximising the return on investment. As residential real estate is not a perfect science, there are guidelines and routes that are more beneficial to the investor depending on the current market, environment and economic standing. A survey was undertaken by members of the public that are involved in residential real estate investment, relative to the maximisation of the return on investment in residential real estate. The salient findings include: Investors in residential real estate spend more than average to extensive time prior, to investment researching the chosen residential real estate property; Investors in residential real estate perform a feasibility study before committing to the development whereas; Investors in residential real estate make use of financial advisors/valuers/estate agents or other investors' knowledge bases in deciding whether to invest in a residential property development; Investors in residential real estate believe that their degree of knowledge about the residential property market and residential property investments are average to very high. Investors in residential real estate somewhat agree that residential real estate investors do not effectively manage their investments. It was recommended that investors make use of help and guidance when investing in residential real estate, perform a feasibility study and ensure that they know their market before investing in a project. It was also noted that location plays a large role when deciding on an investment opportunity worth investing into. By creating awareness and ensuring that all methods and guidelines have been used to maximise the returns that their proposed residential real estate investment, investors can ensure a stronger, healthier cash flow and reap the highest possible benefits from their residential real estate portfolio.
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Alpagut, Merih Ayse. "A Decision Support System For Electricity Generation Investment." Phd thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612211/index.pdf.
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In the recent years, ongoing debates in the mineral sector has shown that efficient use of
natural resources is of vital importance as the use of minerals is essential for modern living.
Especially, in the context of sustainable development, it is required that mineral resources
should be exploited to maximize the contribution to the well being of current generation
without depriving the potential for future generations to meet their own needs. The aim of this
thesis is to develop a decision support system using system dynamics methodology where
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Delgado, Octavio Augusto Herandez. "Decision making for the selection of investment projects." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.263392.
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CESAR, HELOISA PINZON DE ANDRADE. "INVESTMENT DECISION IN AN AFTER-SALE SERVICES PROJECT." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2016. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=29629@1.
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A tomada de decisão de investimento em projetos de serviços pós-venda deve incluir, como etapa anterior, o levantamento dos custos logísticos de sua operação, que podem ser de transporte, provenientes, por exemplo, da roteirização de visitas, e logísticos e tributários se a operação envolver importação de equipamentos/peças. O objetivo deste trabalho envolve a identificação dos processos e custos e a avaliação de uma oportunidade de investimento neste contexto, mensurando o valor que projetos dessa natureza podem apresentar. Sua viabilidade econômica é analisada sob a ótica dos modelos tradicionais de análise de investimento e também sob a abordagem da Teoria das Opções Reais, método de avaliação que considera as flexibilidades gerenciais e modela as variáveis de incertezas do projeto por meio de processos estocásticos. O resultado das análises permite a comparação da viabilidade do projeto de implementação de uma van itinerante de reparos caso a decisão possa ser postergada ou nem mesmo tomada, considerada como uma opção perpétua. São modeladas duas variáveis estocásticas, demanda e taxa de câmbio Real/Dolar, ambas como um Movimento Geométrico Browniano por meio de Simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados obtidos indicam a viabilidade do projeto e sugerem o exercício imediato da opção de investir. Deste modo, disponibilizar um serviço pós-venda pode ser atraente para a empresa do ponto de vista econômico-financeiro, além de trazer benefícios aos clientes. Foi, adicionalmente, avaliada a influência dos parâmetros de volatilidade do projeto e de crescimento das variáveis estocásticas a fim de fazer uma análise de sensibilidade para os resultados encontrados.Prior to taking investment decision in after-sales services projects, the logistics costs of its operations must be known and considered, they may include transportation costs, originated from routing, and logistics and import tax related costs if the project considers the import of equipment/parts. The aim of this dissertation involves the identification of those processes and costs and the valuation of an investment opportunity in this sense, measuring the value that similar projects may present. The economic viability of the project is analyzed from the perspective of the traditional models of investment analysis and also with the approach of the real options theory, a valuation method that considers the managerial flexibilities and that models the uncertainties of the project as stochastic processes. The result of the analyses allows the comparison of the viability of implementing a project for a mobile repair and service van in case the investment decision can be postponed or even not taken, considering it as a perpetual option. Two stochastic variables are modeled in this project, the demand and the RealBRL/DollarUSD exchange rate, both as a Geometric Brownian Motion through Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate the viability of the project and suggest the immediate exercise of the option to invest. This way, offering after-sale services can be attractive to the company, from an economic and financial perspective, besides offering benefits to customers. Additionally, the influence of the project volatility and the stochastic variables growth parameters were tested through sensitivity analysis for the obtained results.
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Zaidi, Syeda Farheen Batul. "Risky decision making in investment : an experimental study." Thesis, Kingston University, 2017. http://eprints.kingston.ac.uk/39754/.
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This research investigates why some individuals make better decisions in risky investments than others and what individual/socio-demographic characteristics influence in making these decisions. Three research questions with nineteen hypotheses were developed for the investigation. The first research question was (RQ1) Which demographic factors (gender, age, ethnicity, education, and investment experience), decision making styles and personality traits affect financial risk tolerance, financial literacy and risky decision making? Second research questionw as (RQ2) Is there any significant relationship between financial risk tolerance, financial literacy and risky decision making? And the third and last research question was (RQ3) Which combination of demographic factors (gender, age, ethnicity, education, and investment experience), decision making styles and personality traits predict financial risk tolerance score and financial literacy score? The investigation included two risk decisions making experimental tasks i.e. Iowa gambling task (IGT) and the balloon analogue risk task (BART) and an online questionnaire in which 244 UK respondents participated. The participants included professional (71%) and nonprofessional (29%) investors. Mixed factor ANOVA, one way ANOVA, Pearson correlation and multiple regression were used to analyse the data. (RQ1) There were no significant differences in the gambling task performance based on financial knowledge, investment experience, personality traits and demographics. There were significant differences in basic and advances financial literacy based on gender, age and investment experience. (RQ2) The results of the mixed factor ANOVA showed that there was no significant main effect of financial risk tolerance on the Iowa gambling task performance but a significant interaction was found to be present. Thus, financial risk tolerance high or low does not affect the risky decision-making task performance. The results of mixed factor ANOVA results show that same level of perceived financial knowledge and actual financial literacy was significantly related to better performance on the Iowa gambling task. Therefore, overconfidence or under confidence about one's level of financial understanding affects performance on risky decision-making tasks. (RQ3) 28% variability in the financial risk tolerance score is explained by the predictors gender, financial literacy score, spontaneous decision style, extraversion and investment experience. The regression model showed that gender, financial risk tolerance score, rational decision making, intuitive decision making and investment experience cause 38% variability in financial literacy score. The participants did learn to make better selections in the gambling task but still majority 56% of them displayed impaired performance. Based on the findings of the research it is recommended that the importance of financial literacy and investment experience should be considered when the financial consultants prepare the investors profile. It is also recommended that the assumptions for measuring healthy performance on the Iowa gambling task should be evaluated carefully when applied to healthy participants in such a way that the individual differences are also incorporated.
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MONTI, MARCO. "Heuristics and biases in investment decision making processes." Doctoral thesis, Università Bocconi, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/11565/4050234.
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Nilsson, Jonas. "Consumer decision making in a complex environment : Examining the decision making process of socially responsible mutual fund investors." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-35607.
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During the last few decades, "regular people" have become increasingly involved with investing in the stock market. One way of doing this, which has become more and more popular, is to invest in mutual funds. The mutual fund industry has, due to its explosive growth, been described as a success story of the 20th century. These days, sources report that over 70% of the Swedish population actively invests in mutual funds. This thesis is an investigation into consumer decision making regarding one specific type of mutual fund: Socially Responsible Investment (SRI). SRI profiled mutual funds are different from "regular" mutual funds in that they incorporate social, ethical, and environmental (SEE) criteria. In this manner, SRI profiled mutual funds could be said to have two separate dimensions. The regular financial dimension has the purpose of generating a high level of financial return while managing risk. The socially responsible dimension, on the other hand, focuses on incorporating SEE issues into the investment process. However, consumers that desire to choose mutual funds that will both perform well financially and have a good socially responsible dimension face a more difficult decision than consumers who choose to invest in "regular" mutual funds. As each of the dimensions come with its own set of challenges which the consumer must overcome, choosing an appropriate combination of these is a difficult task. In this manner, consumers of SRI profiled mutual funds have to navigate through a complex decision making environment to arrive at a good choice. Based in this notion of decision making in complex environments, this thesis investigates how consumers combine their "traditional" financial objectives with their "additional" SEE consideration and examines the impact of personal factors related to these two areas on consumer investment in SRI profiled mutual funds. Four separate essays on these topics, each investigating a specific stage in the Engel-Kollat-Blackwell (1968) consumer decision making process, are presented. Moreover, in order to understand how complexity impacts consumer decision making in the area, the results of each study are analyzed against a conceptual framework focusing on the complexity of the market. The results show that consumers of SRI profiled mutual funds care about both financial and SEE issues. However, how consumers combine these in their decision making differs. Factors, such as the stage of the purchase decision making process, personal abilities, preferences, and perceptions are found to impact consumer decision making. Against this background, this thesis generates an increased understanding of consumer decision making in complex decision making environments in general and of SRI profiled mutual funds in particular.
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Jönsson, Joanna, and Mikaela Zahn. "Decision makers' use of Return on Marketing Investment metrics in the decision-making process." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Akademin för ekonomi, teknik och naturvetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-37151.
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There is extensive literature written about how to calculate Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI) and its importance for marketing managers. However, there are not many studies made on how and when Return on Marketing Investment metrics are used in real life and if and how it is used to argue the value of a marketing activity. We have in this study with comparative cases investigated if and how ROMI metrics are used by managers outside the marketing department in their decision-making process. We based our case selection on how well they represented "Mad men to Math men" presented in Gilan and Hammarberg (2016)'s book "Get Digital or Die Trying." Mad men refers to old school "gut feeling" marketing decision making and "Math men" refers to modern digital marketers with decision making based on numbers and statistics. This study is made from the decision makers point of view with the purpose to gain a better understanding of if and how ROMI calculations are used in the decision-making process of senior management outside of the marketing department. This comparative case study consists of eight in-depth interviews, four in each company. The interviewees are all senior management outside of the marketing department. Our findings include that these two companies work very differently in how they make decisions in marketing investments. In Company 1 the marketing budget is decided by senior management outside of the marketing department, and this management may also cut the marketing budget if they see it necessary. In Company 2 the Segment Managers are responsible for the amount of the budget they would like to invest in marketing activities, and therefore they have more incentive to calculate the return of each investment and compare it with the return on other investments available to them. One of the reasons for the different ways of working can be a result of the different responsibility structure over the marketing budget. There is also a difference in how the two companies measure the success of the investment; Company 1 measure success in pure financial return and Company 2 measure success in increased market shares as well as financial return. Company 2 are using ROMI metrics to a greater extent than Company 1, who does not use any ROMI metrics. Marketers can in this study get an idea of how using ROMI metrics can help argue their case for further investments in marketing or cutting the budget for the marketing department. With the use of ROMI metrics, marketers can also evaluate which marketing activities are more efficient and thereby decide if they should continue with these activities or not. This study also shows that there is still, in some companies, a divide and conflict between the finance department and the marketing department. By shifting the responsibility of the marketing budget like in the case of Company 2, the adverse effect of this division on the marketing investments can be reduced. It can also be beneficial for the company to focus more on market shares than on sales and numbers. As digital marketing is growing stronger, the calculations of ROMI will become easier. Keywords: Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI), decision-making process, senior management, marketing department, finance department, ROMI metrics, real-life ROMI, comparative case study, Mad men, Math men
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Monk, Derek. "Investment in training : a matter for rational decision making?" Thesis, University of Central Lancashire, 2002. http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/1740/.
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Vocational training has attracted increasing attention over the past two decades both in theoretical and policy terms. This study set out to raise questions about the management of such training. Evidence from previous work suggests that policy makers responsible for training are faced with exogenous forces that make decision making prone to irrational choices. This study attempts to fill the gap in research on post entry screening by examining a series of longitudinal data. The approach has been through the use of interviews with trainees from selected industries (British Gas, the football industry and the provision of a public library service). Between them, these industries represent a large cross section of the British economy. British Gas is an example of a former nationalised industry that has been subsequently privatised. By contrast, the football industry is(and always has been) in private "hands". Finally, this study examined the provision of ICT training given to public library service personnel in both the UK and Finland. The aim, in all cases, was to assess whether resources devoted to training were used efficiently. A second aim was to locate the findings in the context of a debate between the neoclassical school of economic analysis and its institutional rival, especially Internal Labour Market theory. The evidence suggests that institutional theory explains post entry progression better than its neoclassical rival. Furthermore, the research also concludes that managers charged with the task of implementing training schemes frequently do not evaluate them and as a consequence, the stated aims of organisations' training strategies are not realised. This situation is likely to continue unless more thought is given to the issue of monitoring training carefully both at a micro and macro level. Ultimately, this research demonstrates that industry-wide (or macroeconomic) policies designed to increase employees' skills do not necessarily result in the desired gains at a local (or microeconomic) level.
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Davies, L. G. "Senior managerial perceptions of the foreign direct investment decision." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.378112.
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Vega, Paul. "Venture capital in China : investment processes and decision-making /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2004. http://swbplus.bsz-bw.de/bsz114353042inh.htm.
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Sargsyan, Gevorg. "Effect of statutory and regulatory protection in investment decision." Doctoral thesis, Universidad de Alicante, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10045/93652.
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Public interest in investments has increased dramatically during the past decades. Also parallely, there has been much research interest related with profitability, liquidity, and statutory and regulatory protection of investments, the three important pillars of investment. However, there is no similar research comparing the markets of Spain, USA and Russia in order to answer the research question of this thesis. Considering these factors, there exists need for this scientific research. The objective of this study was to discover the effect of statutory and regulatory protection in investment decision by comparing and analysing the legal environment of investments. The two steps to achieve this objective were: - Analyse and compare the legislation and securities market regulation international, national and institutional framework. - Survey. On a national level, we focused on three markets - Spain, the USA and Russia. On an institutional level, we concentrated on state agencies with regulatory power over securities markets of the above mentioned countries. The conclusion answered the main question of the work – “How does statutory and regulatory protection affect investment decisions?” This thesis in financial and business law is very relevant and will be of great interest to the investment sector. It can help interested parties in investment societies find specific solutions to improve the efficiency in investments in the above mentioned securities markets taking into consideration statutory and regulatory protection. Also, this work raises new questions for future research and indicates new possibilities of conducting future investigations.Vicerrectorado de Investigación y Transferencia de Conocimiento (Escuela de Doctorado) "Convocatoria para la concesión de subvenciones con el objetivo de facilitar la obtención de la mención de Doctor internacional en el título de doctora o doctor, Ayudas Movilidad 2015". Jeffrey E. Smith Institute of Real Estate and Capital Markets of University of Missouri "Research Scholar (Becario de Investigación) - 01/02/2016-31/12/2017".
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Reidy, Angela D. "Incorporating sustainability in investment decision making for infrastructure projects." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/119192/2/Angela_Reidy_Thesis.pdf.
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This thesis addresses a gap in investment decision making where sustainability is a key priority for infrastructure providers, and yet decisions on major infrastructure investments continue to be governed by rules for economic analysis. The thesis proposes that investment analysis moves to a broader infrastructure business model approach based on a clearer definition of both benefits and value. The thesis introduces the concept of a sustainability investment logic. The research has focused on the water sector in Australia, however the model that has been developed may be applied to all infrastructure sectors.
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Qaradaghi, Mohammed. "Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency| A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10141465.
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Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers’ preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker’s knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and techniques that can provide more flexibility and inclusiveness in the decision making process, such as Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. However, it can be observed that the MCDM literature: 1) is primarily focused on suggesting certain MCDM techniques to specific problems without providing sufficient evidence for their selection, 2) is inadequate in addressing MCDM in E&P portfolio selection and prioritization compared with other fields, and 3) does not address prioritizing brownfields (i.e., developed oilfields). This research study aims at addressing the above drawbacks through combining three MCDM methods (i.e., AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS) into a single decision making tool that can support optimal oilfield portfolio investment decisions by helping determine the share of each oilfield of the total development resources allocated. Selecting these methods is reinforced by a pre-deployment and post-deployment validation framework. In addition, this study proposes a two-dimensional consistency test to verify the output coherence or prioritization stability of the MCDM methods in comparison with an intuitive approach. Nine scenarios representing all possible outcomes of the internal and external consistency tests are further proposed to reach a conclusion. The methodology is applied to a case study of six major oilfields in Iraq to generate percentage shares of each oilfield of a total production target that is in line with Iraq’s aspiration to increase oil production. However, the methodology is intended to be applicable to other E&P portfolio investment prioritization scenarios by taking the specific contextual characteristics into consideration.
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Ong, Alen Sen Kay. "Asset location decision models in life insurance." Thesis, City University London, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.336430.
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Pfeffer, Mary Graves. "Venture Capital Investment and Protocol Analysis." Thesis, North Texas State University, 1987. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc331014/.
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This study used protocol analysis to identify key variables in the venture capital investment decision-making process. The study used a fictional business plan which was based on six actual business plans. This fictional business plan was presented to ten venture capitalists who were asked to review it to decide whether to interview the investee. The protocols obtained from these subjects were analyzed to determine patterns within the subjects' review. The sections of the business plan which were commonly reviewed first were the deal structure, the executive summary, and the management section. The management section was used by the greatest number of subjects. The market section was used the greatest number of times. The data were also organized by type of operators used in each subject's protocols. Information Search/Retrieval operators were most common, followed by Task Structuring/Set Goal operators. When classified into the four major categories of Task Structuring/Set Goal, Information Acquisition, Analytical/ Inferential, and Choice operators, Analytical/Inferential operators were used most frequently. Choice operators were least used. The phrases were analyzed by the relevant section in the business plan. The market received the greatest number of references, followed by references to the product and to management. However, when references to the income statement and balance sheet were combined as phrases relevant to the financial statements, the financial statements were referred to more frequently than the product or the people. The subjects appeared to use an unidentified choice program within which certain models could be identified as subroutines. The subjects used an elimination-by-aspects model to screen the business plan. If the business plan met the criteria within the elimination-by-aspects model of the subject, the subject used an additive/nonlinear model for the remainder of the review. The results of this study indicate that financial statements provide information important in the venture capital investment decision-making process. This finding is contrary to the advice usually given to potential venture capital investees.
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Young, Matthew M. "Gambling and investment decision making a comparison of similar situations /." online access from Digital Dissertation Consortium access full-text, 2003. http://libweb.cityu.edu.hk/cgi-bin/er/db/ddcdiss.pl?MQ89072.
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Sarin, Atulya. "Interactions of investment opportunities and financing decisions." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/38633.
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Yick, Ho-yin, and 易浩然. "Tax asymmetry, investment decisions and capital structure." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4098798X.
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Sharif, Kamaruddin Bin. "Pension funding and investment : a multiple criteria decision making approach." Connect to resource, 1985. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1262290653.
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Simmler, Martin [Verfasser]. "Tax policy and firms' financing and investment decision / Martin Simmler." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1032559128/34.
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Liddle, Brantley T. (Brantley Thomas). "Sustainable development, infrastructure and environmental investment, and the privatization decision." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12398.
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CHUN-NAN, KUO, and 郭軍男. "Superficies Investment Decision Analysis." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/15134422789313038641.
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碩士東吳大學
企業管理學系
102
The superficies investment decision faces challenging future uncertainties. It possesses a sequence of decisions including bid-or-not, product planning, and timing selection. In each stage, high risk choices must be made in prior to realization of uncertain events under which benefits are marginal because the superficies are not perceived as high value due to traditional land ownership thinking in Taiwan. The current practice relies on expert experiences and thus demands a comprehensive decision analysis model that supports high decision quality. Therefore, this study aims to develop a UNISON decision analysis framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning and quantitative decision tree analysis to evaluate multi-stage superficies alternatives. This study specially applies the min-max regret concept in the multi-stage decision so that the uncertainties of superficies decisions can be handled. A case study result shows that it would be better if the case company has not decided to bid the superficies and to invest in the following real estate projects which turned out a negative impact. This case study shows the viability of the proposed model to superficies practice.
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Guo, Shiau-Ying, and 郭曉穎. "A Study of Investment Types about Investment Attention and Investment Decision." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54061854863504417104.
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碩士中原大學
會計研究所
93
The relationship between sentiment, risk attitude and investment decision has been a concerned issue in Behavioral Finance.Barber and Odean(2003) considered that market investors are affected by the attention of information, and the abnormal transation volume, return and news will influence the behaviors of the investors.As a result, the relationship between investors’ cognition adjustment and decision belief will be significant different due to different information provide. Findings of other studies also indicated that the investing confidence difference between institutional investor and individual investors is different. The research investigates the abnormal presentation in order to analyze the influence of institutional and individual investors. Letter research examines the impact of market information on the investment behaviors of both institutional investors and individual investors in Taiwan security market by .vector autoregression model. The result of study is found that investors while making the investment decision will consider trading volume and rate of returns of the stock price last day. And they will give higher weights in the rate of returns of the stock price last day. But this kind of behavior does not last in Impulse-responde analysis.Perhaps investors have strengthened the importance of information and resulted in neglecting the accuracy of this information .
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Kyriazis, Costa Basil. "The residential property investment decision." Thesis, 1993. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/26219.
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Matundu, Diamena. "Strategic aspects in investment decision-making." Diss., 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/18177.
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The major concern of investment decision-makers is to find the appropriate capital budgeting
techniques to apply. Many factors cause change within an organisation. Strategic
investment management takes a close look at these changing factors.
To this end, a literature study of popular capital budgeting procedures, investment strategic
theory, and a selected method for linking the two was undertaken. A sample of manufacturers
in the Gauteng region of South Africa was chosen to indicate whether there is a correlation
between financial theory and practice.
The results of this survey indicated that financial evaluation was widely practised. Whereas,
strategic analysis was used less often.
The need for an in-depth study of other economic sectors and the financial theory and
practice used by the investment decision-makers in those sectors is identified as a possible
future study. The value inherent in the evaluation of relative performances of manufacturing firms, which have applied similar strategies, is also identified.Business Management
M. Comm. (Business Management)
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Wu, Yu Lin, and 吳昱霖. "Financial Information Quality and Investment Decision." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/62653063853358811275.
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碩士長庚大學
工商管理學系
98
Prior studies suggest that higher-quality financial information can enhance investment efficiency by mitigating information asymmetries such as moral hazard and adverse selection, this article extends previous research and explores whether information transparency, measured by the announcement of the Information Disclosure and Transparency Ranking System, is associated with a reduction of over-investment or with a reduction of under-investment. We use Pooled Regression Model to examine the relationship between information transparency and investment decision, the sample covers all public listed firms from 2003 to 2007. The empirical results show that information transparency is positively associated with investment among firms with higher likelihood of under-investment; on the other hand, information transparency is negatively associated with investment among firms with higher likelihood of over-investment. In additions, institutional ownership and board of directors are associated with lower over- and under-investment. Overall, information transparency, institutional ownership, and board of directors have a monitoring effect on firm capital investment decision.
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Shen, Ciou-Hong, and 沈秋紅. "Debt Financing and Investment Decision Analysis." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78791465471513404074.
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碩士玄奘大學
財務金融學系碩士班
97
In this paper, we explore the impact of debt financing and investment decision analysis under uncertainty. We consider the case where the market for loans is perfectly competitive, a firm has limited access to financial markets with its bank to get financing. When firm cannot meet the required coupon payment, then the bank can loan contract to exercise an immediate liquidation of all financial firms and the firm must also be at this time to announce the news of its bankruptcy to the outside world. In the competitive case, when default occurs, the higher the debt level, the higher the coupon, the lower the investment threshold which dampens the option value. Whether firms borrowing in such circumstances, interest rates for lending companies who value the value of the existence of significant positive correlation. More investment will create uncertainty in the threshold enhancement, but the point of view of firms and banks have a lot of consistency in the results, for example, interest rates for the value of companies and banks all have a significant positive correlation, while the dividend for the companies and banks The value of the negative correlation would be significant. The size of the dividend would cause the threshold up to enhance their investment, but in the value of both lenders and borrowers have inconsistent results, so both lenders and borrowers in the interest rate environment changes, there will be a lot of inconsistency.
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Silva, Gonçalo Capela Sanches Pereira da. "Decision Support System for Investment Analysis." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/125331.
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The purpose of this thesis lies on selecting and automating a set of Fundamental Analysis
indicators and studying related software tools that can help investors understanding
market behaviour. The several distinct data-sources, tools and methods will be evaluated
using a Decision Making process for Financial Markets.
Sometimes there’s not enough data in which we can base the investment decision
upon, other times the data lacks quality, while other times, despite having the right data,
the problem lies on the process of analyzing the data and then turning that analysis
into a concrete decision. Also, since the human decision making process is not well
systemized, there are times when both the data and the analysis are well performed, but
the results may vary even when confronted with similar data patterns more than once.
This is particularly crucial when dealing with fast-paced environments like the Financial
Markets. This thesis will therefore study tools for systemizing a Decision Making process
based on fundamental analysis indicators over financial markets and will evaluate how
such tools help to avoid uncertainty in human decision and to complement lack of data
and poor data quality. There are two essential building blocks of such a system: the
data set and the model that analyses the data and ultimately, provides information that
facilitates the decision making process about a particular investment. Both blocks will be
made available in the framework of the research project at GoBusiness Finance.O propósito desta dissertação reside na selecção e sistematização de um conjunto de indicadores financeiros para Análise Fundamental, assim como, o estudo de ferramentas que possam ajudar investidores a terem um melhor entendimento do segmento das acções dos Mercados Financeiros. Por vezes, não existe informação suficiente sobre a qual possamos basear as decisões de investimento, por outrem, existem vezes em que a informação existe, mas a qualidade da mesma não pode ser comprovada. Também acontecem casos em que, apesar de possuirmos a informação adequada, o problema recai no processo de análise da informação e na subsequente tomada de decisão. Para além das questões relacionadas com informação, existe também o facto de o processo de decisão desempenhado pelos humanos não ser bem sistematizado. Assim, podem surgir ocasiões em que as decisões resultantes são distintas, mesmo quando confrontados com padrões de informação e resultados de análise semelhantes. Isto é particularmente importante quando lidamos com ambientes em que as decisões são tomadas de forma tremendamente rápida, como é o exemplo dos mercados financeiros. Com isto, esta tese irá estudar ferramentas para sistematizar o processo de tomar decisões relativas a investimentos nos mercados, com base em princípios análise fundamental. Existem duas componentes essenciais para a construção de um sistema de apoio à decisão: o data set e os modelos de análise ao mesmo. Ambas as componentes serão estudadas e disponibilizadas em âmbito empresarial na Gobusiness Finance.
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Kuo, Sheng-cheng, and 郭昇政. "Investment Decision of the Electronics Industry." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32074349340925988713.
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碩士國立中山大學
財務管理學系研究所
100
Since our current economic environment is getting more and more competitive, enterprises must continuously improve and strengthen their ability in order to maintain their competitiveness. Therefore, investment activities of firms are the key elements to drive business growth. This article tries to discuss whether three different investment dimensions can help to boost firm’s future growth of profitability. This research uses investment spending of listed firms in domestic electronics industry (including capital expenditure, intangible assets and R&D expenditures) as variable to explore the effects of these three investment expenditures on corporate P/B ratio as well as ROA (Return on Asset). This study attempts to analyze whether firm’s investment activities can impose significantly positive influence on its future profitability. We use panel data to run regression analysis and further divide Taiwan electronics industry into five sectors to analyze the effects of firm’s investment expenditure on P/B and future profitability among different sectors. The empirical results show that investment spending imposes significantly positive effect on firm’s profits, but this relationship exist time lags.
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Ho, Po-Hsin, and 何柏欣. "Two Essays on Corporate Investment Decision." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20071039714780149979.
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博士國立臺灣大學
財務金融學研究所
99
This dissertation contains two essays on corporate investment decision. Essay 1: CEO Overconfidence and the Long-Term Performance Following R&D Increases In this essay, we set out in this study to examine the relationship between the CEO overconfidence and significant increases in research and development (R&D) expenditure. Although the prior studies reveal a significantly positive market reaction to both short- and long-run following the increases in R&D expenditure, our empirical results indicate that long-run stock performance is found to be positive only for those firms whose CEOs are not overconfident. We also provide evidence to show that an unexpected increase in R&D expenditure is an investment decision which is again only beneficial for firms whose CEOs do not exhibit overconfidence. Our findings, which may be attributable to both overinvestment and the overestimation of future cash flows, indicate that overconfident behavior often leads to the pursuit of value-destroying R&D investment projects. Essay 2: The Change of Corporate Governance Mechanism Following Bad Acquisitions In this essay, we investigate the changes in corporate governance mechanism following bad acquisitions. A merger is defined as a bad acquisition if the share price declines significantly around the merger announcement date. Numerous research indicates that weak corporate governance lead to lower merger announcement effect. We examine firms'' response following bad acquisition from the dynamic perspective and estimate the long-run performance associated with the change of the governance variables. Our results suggest that after bad acquisition, firms'' corporate governance structure indeed change, especially for the increase in the independent directors, board independence, and independent audit committee members. Our evidence indicates that firm would improve the weak governance structure to restore the trust of shareholders and investors. Our results also show that the post-merger long-run abnormal performance associated with the increasing of number of directors, independent directors, and the number of directors in audit committee mechanism is significantly positive, but the abnormal operating performance are not related to the changes in governance variables. The results suggest that bad acquiring firms which improve their governance restore the trust from investors.
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Semmler, Lukas Valentin. "Financial decision making in rural India: poverty, financial literacy and investment decisions." Doctoral thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-1735-0000-0028-881B-1.
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Huang, Yi-Ju, and 黃薏如. "Human Capital Investment Decision in Taiwanese Household." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/sy8jg4.
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碩士國立暨南國際大學
經濟學系
89
This study focuses on the effects that income source has on human capital investment decision. To stress the individual income effects within the household, we have divided household total income into male head’s and female head’s income, so as to further investigate the marginal effects of income increases from the two heads over various human capital expenditures. By adopting the intra-household resource allocation model, the data we used in this study is Survey of Family Income and Expenditure from DGBAS with 1992 and 1999 waves. In addition to the analysis of intra-household resource allocation on human capital investment, the main purpose of this study is and to compare the differentials of human capital investment mechanism over different stages of economic development levels. As the empirical result shows, incomes from both male and female heads do have each significant effect on human capital expenditures. In 1992, it suggests that income from female head has a negative effect on all the human capital expenditure, whereas the effects are both positive for male and female heads’ income in 1999. Moreover, income effects in low-income households are less significant than that of high income households 1992, while in 1999, income effects from both low and high income household all appear to be significant. Consequently, over the path of economic growth, the income increment and decrement of childbirth is along with the facts that male and female heads are paying more attention to their investments on human capital. On the other hand, through the stratification of different household samples, we are to examine how these households with different characteristics will behave accordingly. From the sample of the one-generation household with children aged from 0-14, we have found that female heads’ income effects on sons are actually greater than that on daughters. It is an indication that Taiwanese households indeed pay greater attention to male offspring than female. The result implies that human capital investment is actually biased by gender-preference.
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Cho, KEI, and 鄒貴聖. "The real option approch to investment decision." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/88253351629355074944.
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碩士長庚醫學暨工程學院
管理科學系
85
AbstractThe investment decisions that are assessed by traditional financial criteria and strategic tools cannot reflect efficiently the real value of investment project under fierce environment fluctuation and uncertainty. In recent years, performing of strategic investment was viewed as a relative theory that extends from real option. Just like dynamic programming that provides investors a method of contingent decision and a solution to the deviation of investment evaluation.The concept of real option is the value of real assets include not only the intrinsic value but also the values of opportunity and flexibility. The study aimed at the basic concept and the structure of principle of real option to investment decision. By the help of relative literatures, we can build up the model of assessment of abandonment option and also by using empirical test to prove the correctness of using the real option to investment decision making.The results of this study are:Investors will get higher value if they choose giving up their investment when exit value of the firm is higher.If the possibility of a firm giving up its operation is high, it will increase the value of abandonment option value and firm''s value. The real option assessment model is useful for evaluation of real assets, and is more suitable to the situation that has more uncertainties than NPV.The managerial meanings of the results of this study are:In the economic backdrop of diversified, competitive and declining market, investor should stop operating and halt the idea of long term running of the investment. Investors and entrepreneurs should own a determined spirit. They should make proper decision in proper time to increase the value. Hesitation only induces loss.The real option approach provides another course to evaluation investment. A more flexible and contingent way of decision is the most important contribution of this approach.
48
Kuo, Yu-Chen, and 郭育臣. "Narrow Framing Effect on Individual Investment Decision." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87415738444784925670.
Full textAbstract:
碩士輔仁大學
管理學研究所
95
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether narrow framing effect, an inclination for ones being unable to make independent decisions, affects individual disposition effect, an inclination of prematurely selling winners but not losers. (Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993; kahneman, 2003; Barberis & Huang, 2004) Individuals who bounded by narrow framing are more likely to hinge on prior decisions without updating the reference points toward current market prices and therefore are associated with an aggravated disposition effect. The result from a sample that comprises of 8,222 VIP customers from October 1995 to June 2006 and provided by a renowned fund house shows that the narrow framing effect is positively correlated with the deposition effect, but the relation not enough to prove. We further segregate the sample into four categories based on trade frequency and trade concentration. The result shows that the relation is evidenced on high trade frequency categories and low trade frequency categories. However, the positive effect of narrow framing on the disposition effect is evidenced when the sample is equally divided based on trading frequency. Furthermore, we consider personal attribute, the elder or richer investor will not be influence from narrow framing effect. Finally, we will observe personal attribute influence the relation between narrow framing effect and disposition effect. The result shows that the positive relation not exist in younger, female and location on non-Taipei investor.
49
Wang, Sheng-chung, and 王聖中. "Investment Decision Support with Dynamic Bayesian Networks." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/82524421236808300471.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立中山大學
資訊管理學系研究所
93
Stock market plays an important role in the modern capital market. As a result, the prediction of financial assets attracts people in different areas. Moreover, it is commonly accepted that stock price movement generally follows a major trend. As a result, forecasting the market trend becomes an important mission for a prediction method. Accordingly, we will predict the long term trend rather than the movement of near future or change in a trading day as the target of our predicting approach. Although there are various kinds of analyses for trend prediction, most of them use clear cuts or certain thresholds to classify the trends. Users (or investors) are not informed with the degrees of confidence associated with the recommendation or the trading signal. Therefore, in this research, we would like to study an approach that could offer the confidence of the trend analysis by providing the probabilities of each possible state given its historical data through Dynamic Bayesian Network. We will incorporate the well-known principles of Dow’s Theory to better model the trend of stock movements. Through the results of our experiment, we may say that the financial performance of the proposed model is able to defeat the buy and hold trading strategy when the time scope covers the entire cycle of a trend. It also means that for the long term investors, our approach has high potential to win the excess return. At the same time, the trading frequency and correspondently trading costs can be reduced significantly.
50
Jiang, Ting-Yi, and 江亭毅. "SMIDS: Stock Market Investment Decision Support System." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/71997818067034273605.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立中正大學
會計與資訊科技研究所
96
Stock investment has become an important investment activity in Taiwan when economic becomes well developed and wealth accumulated so fast. However, investors usually get loss by unknown investment objective and invest blindly because of various investment objectives and the unpredictable economic environment. Therefore, to create a good investment decision support system to assist investors making good decisions has become an important research problem. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a data mining technique that has good performances in forecasting stock price. However, the major limitation is that it can not explain the forecasting decisions clearly as a black box system. On the other hand, a decision tree model can generate some rules to describe the forecasting decisions. In literature except stock price forecasting, combining a number of different models as the hybrid model has shown better forecasting performances than many single models. Therefore, this thesis focus on the electronic industry stock by the TEJ database and combining ANN and decision trees to create a stock price forecasting model. The experimental result shows that this combined model has 77% accuracy in the electronic industry than the single ANN and decision tree models. In addition, the decision tree model in the combined hybrid model provides reliable forecasting rules to assist investment decision making.