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Högberg, Sverker. "Utveckling av rättvisebegreppet i IPCC-rapporterna 1990 - 2014." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-139012.
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Rapporterna från FN:s klimatpanel (IPCC) sammanfattar resultat från naturvetenskaplig forskning om klimatförändringarna och deras globala effekter. Sedan 2007 ingår även resultat från samhällsvetenskaplig forskning, vilket har ökat rapporternas betydelse som underlag för klimatarbetet. I uppsatsen studeras utvecklingen och användningen av ett samhällsvetenskapligt begrepp rättvisa, som visar sig ha ökat med tiden.
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Chong, Yuk-lan, and 莊玉蘭. "Review and analyze the IPCC future climate change projections." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2011. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4673434X.
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Onça, Daniela de Souza. "\"Quando o sol brilha, eles fogem para a sombra...\": a ideologia do aquecimento global." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8135/tde-01062011-104754/.
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Esta pesquisa procura reunir provas e evidências científicas contrárias à hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico e elucidar seu significado na atualidade. Argumentamos que o clima está em permanente transformação, não podendo ser reduzido a um produto de variações das concentrações atmosféricas de dióxido de carbono e que a preocupação com mudanças climáticas não é uma novidade histórica mas, apesar disso, nosso desconhecimento sobre o funcionamento do sistema climático é ainda desafiador. Concluímos que a hipótese do aquecimento global antropogênico não é consensual e exerce hoje a função de ideologia legitimadora do capitalismo tardio, perpetuando a exclusão social travestindo-se de compromisso com as gerações futuras.This research aims to gather scientific proofs and evidences against anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and to elucidate its meaning in the present. We argue that climate is in a permanent transformation, not resuming itself to a product of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration variations and that worries about climatic changes are not new but, despite this, our ignorance on the functioning of the climate system is still challenging. We conclude that anthropogenic global warming hypothesis is not consensual and exerts nowadays the function of late capitalism legitimating ideology, perpetuating social exclusion transvestiting itself as a commitment to future generations.
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Erkkilä, Patrik. "Modellering av metangasproduktionen på Koviks återvinningsanläggning." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-20040.
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I denna rapport undersöks produktionen av metangas i deponin på Koviks återvinningsanläggning. Detta med hjälp av ett modellerings-verktyg framtaget av IPCC. Modeller för beräkning av metangasproduktion i deponier har funnits sedan 1980-talet och dess resultat kan fungera som underlag vid beslut om investeringar i utrustning för gasutvinning och energiproduktion. På Kovik har deponering skett sedan 1964 och gasutvinningen startade i mitten av 1980-talet. Metangasproduktionen och metangasemissioner på anläggningen har under flera år beräknats med hjälp av EPER France-modellen. Studier visar att denna modell tenderar att underskatta metangasemissioner, och därmed förmodligen även metangasproduktionen. En genomgång av beräkningarna på Kovik visar även att fel indata gällande deponerade mängder använts. Av dessa anledningar är det intressant att använda korrekt indata i en annan modell för att få ett mer rättvisande resultat. Modellen som används är en First-order Multi-phase model. Den tar hänsyn till ett antal olika faktorer, däribland deponerade avfallsmängder, dess ålder, dess halveringstid samt dess innehåll av nedbrytbart organiskt kol. Avfallet delas in i kategorierna Hushållsavfall, Industriavfall och Slam. Hushållsavfallet delas även in i avfallsslagen Mat, Trädgård, Papper, Trä, Textil och Inert avfall. De olika avfallsslagen och avfallskategorierna påverkar produktionen av metangas i olika hög grad. Då information om det deponerade hushållsavfallets fördelning över olika avfallsslag saknas presenteras resultatet i tre scenarier med olika fördelning. Fördelningen i scenario 1 antas vara den mest realistiska. Resultaten skiljer sig åt något i de olika scenarierna, gemensamt är dock att de visar att metangasproduktionen var som störst runt 2005. Avfallsmängderna, och därmed metangasproduktionen, minskar sedan fort på grund av förbudet mot deponering av organiskt material. Resultatet för scenario 1 visar att metangaspotentialen från 2015 till 2030 är omkring 15 % av den totala producerade metangasen från deponeringsstart 1964 till modellverktygets slutår 2030. Detta motsvarar en kvarvarande metangaspotential på cirka 30 kton till 2030. Utvinningen av metangas kan fortsätta på dagens nivå ungefär 5 år till. Osäkerhet i vilka parametervärden som bör användas samt brist på data över deponerat avfall begränsar möjligheten att göra modellering på deponigasproduktion med tillförlitliga resultat.By using a modeling tool developed by IPCC, this report examines the production of methane in the landfill at Koviks recycling facility. Models for calculating methane production has existed since the 1980s and the results can serve as a basis for decisions on investments in equipment for gas extraction and energy production. Landfilling has occurred at Kovik since 1964 and the gas extraction started in the mid-1980s. Methane gas production and methane emissions at the facility have for several years been calculated with the EPER France model. However, studies show that this model tends to underestimate the methane emissions and thereby probably also the methane production. A review of the calculations at Kovik also shows that wrong data for the amount of landfilled waste has been used. For these reasons, it is interesting to use correct data in another model to get a more accurate result. The model used in this report is a First-order Multi-phase model. It takes into account a number of factors, including quantities of landfilled waste, its age, its half-life time and its content of degradable organic carbon. The waste is divided into such categories as Household Waste, Industrial Waste and Sludge. Household waste is also divided into Food, Garden, Paper, Wood, Textile and Inert waste. The different types of waste affect the production of methane gas in different degrees. Due to the lack of information regarding the composition of the landfilled household waste the result is presented in three scenarios with different composition. The composition in scenario 1 is assumed to be the most realistic. Although the results differ slightly among the scenarios, all those scenarios suggest that methane gas production peaked around 2005. The amount of waste, and thereby the methane production, then decreases quickly because of the ban on landfilling of organic matter. The results of scenario 1 shows that methane potential from 2015 to 2030 is about 15 % of the total produced methane gas from the landfill starting year 1964 to 2030, the final year in the modeling tool. This corresponds to a remaining methane potential of about 30 kilotons by 2030. The extraction of methane gas can continue at the current level for about five years. It should be mentioned that the uncertainty of the parameters that have been used and the lack of data on landfilled waste could result in a limited reliability of the calculated gas production.
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Neto, Petronio de Tilio. "Ecopolítica das mudanças climáticas: o IPCC e o ecologismo dos pobres." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8131/tde-09102008-175152/.
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Este é um trabalho sobre a ecopolítica internacional das mudanças climáticas. Ele trata dos conflitos de interesses entre os Estados no que diz respeito a questões ambientais mais especificamente, no que diz respeito às alterações do clima terrestre. Nas últimas décadas e séculos o ser humano tem alterado a composição da atmosfera, fazendo com que o sistema climático se aqueça e se modifique. Portanto cabe ao ser humano entender o problema, avaliar suas conseqüências e desenvolver medidas de resposta. Para auxiliar nesses esforços na esfera internacional foi criado o IPCC, Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança do Clima. Sua função é dar as bases científicas necessárias para a tomada de decisões políticas que afetem o clima. Nesse sentido o IPCC está incumbido de tratar de questões relevantes para a política, sem no entanto interferir na tomada de decisões. Este estudo questiona justamente se o IPCC tem sido neutro como deveria ao expor os impactos das mudanças climáticas e ao apontar possíveis medidas de resposta. O recorte analítico selecionado para investigar essa questão é o Ecologismo dos Pobres, segundo o qual as sociedades humanas seriam marcadas pela desigualdade na distribuição dos benefícios e dos custos ambientais. Observando os relatórios do IPCC sob essa ótica foi possível encontrar indícios de que esse Painel talvez não seja tão neutro do ponto de vista político quanto afirma ser. Talvez ele não seja imune às disputas políticas entre os Estados. Como conseqüência o IPCC pode não ser a alternativa mais eficaz para responder às mudanças climáticas no âmbito internacionalThis is a study about the international ecopolitics of climate change. It analyses the conflicts of interests among States concerning environmental questions more specifically, concerning changes in the planets climate. Over the last decades and centuries the human being has shifted the composition of the atmosphere, and the whole climatic system is being pushed to warming. For that reason human being is supposed to understand the problem, assess its consequences and develop answer measures. In the international arena the IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was created to help in such efforts. The Panels function is to provide the political decisions concerning the climate with the necessary scientific basis. In that sense IPCC is meant to take into account policy relevant questions, but with a policy neutral perspective. This study inquires into IPCCs neutrality when it presents the climate change impacts and when it points out eventual answer measures. The analytical approach selected to investigate this question is the Environmentalism of the Poor. This approach argues that human societies distribute unequally the environmental benefits and costs. From this point of view, analyzing the IPCC reports brings evidence that the Panel may be not so policy neutral as it announces. Maybe it is not immune to political disputes among States. As a result IPCC may be not the most efficient alternative to respond to climate change.
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Lindelöf, Åsa. "Metangasutsläpp från deponier och osäkerheter i beräkningsmodeller kring detta." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96418.
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I Sverige finns uppskattningsvis mellan 4000 och 8000 stycken deponier. De flesta av deponierna är nedlagda och år 2001 fanns det 142 stycken aktiva deponier för hushållsavfall. År 2010 hade antalet minskat till 76 stycken. Vid nedbrytning av organiskt material i deponier bildas metanhaltig deponigas som bidrar till växthuseffekten. Utsläppens omfattning prognostiseras med hjälp av beräkningsmodeller, exempelvis IPCCs. Dessa modeller fordrar att antaganden görs av exempelvis andelen gas som utvinns via gasuppsamlingsutrustningen, det organiska materialets halveringstid och avfallets sammansättning och mängd. I Sverige görs antagandet att 60 procent av deponigasen samlas upp på deponier med gasuppsamlingsutrustning. Rapportens övergripande syfte var att undersöka hur osäkerheterna i de antaganden som görs kan inverka på de prognostiserade deponigasemissionerna. Syftet var också att bedöma om metangasutsläpp från deponier utgör ett stort eller försumbart tillskott av växthusgasutsläpp i jämförelse med andra källor. Detta gjordes genom en känslighetsanalys som baserades på en litteraturstudie, IPCC- prognostiserade metanmängder samt genom intervjuer med deponiägare. Prognostiserad metangasproduktion från landets deponier jämfördes med uppskattad metangasproduktion, där det senare baserades på utvunna mängder i landet och en uppskattad utvinningsgrad på 60 procent. Prognostiserad metangasmängd jämfördes med en uppskattad mängd metan, där den senare baserades på utvunna gasmängder i landet och uppskattad utvinningsgrad. Omfattningen av emissionerna gjordes genom känslighetsanalys där utvinningsgrad hos gasuppsamlingssystemets varierades mellan 30 och 80 procent. De utvunna gasmängderna har varit relativt konstanta de senaste tio åren trots att antalet deponier med gasuppsamlingsutrustning minskat från 75 till 47 stycken och att deponeringsförbud har instiftats. Den antagna halveringstiden på 7,5 år torde därför vara för lågt ansatt vilket också styrks av den dåliga nedbrytningen i flera äldre deponier, minskade mängder deponerat avfall samt att inget organiskt material deponeras sedan 2005. Sveriges huvudsakliga metankällor är jordbrukssektorn och deponier från avfallssektorn. År 1990 var de prognostiserade utsläppen från de två sektorerna ungefär lika stora. Fram till år 2010 har de prognostiserade utsläppen från deponier halverats medan utsläpp från jordbruket ligger på ungefär samma nivå som tidigare. Ur den enskilda deponins perspektiv kan det konstateras att utvinningsgraden hos gasuppsamlingssystemet varierar i både ett kortsiktigt och i ett långsiktigt perspektiv. Beroende på när en mätning utförs kommer en viss variation uppvisas i gasutvinningssystemets utvinningsgrad dvs både emitterade och uppsamlade gasmängder varierar mellan mättillfällena. Det kan konstateras att en stor osäkerhet byggs in i den beräknade årsproduktionen av metangas när metanmängderna beräknas med hjälp av medelvärden från ett fåtal mätningar utförda under korta mätperioder. Statistiska Centralbyrån har gjort beräkningar av den årliga utvinningsgraden. Dessa beräkningar har grundats på faktiska utvunna mängder som jämförts med beräknade totala mängder. För en enskild deponi kan skillnaderna mellan de beräknade och faktiska mängderna vara stora vilket medför att utvinningsgraden eller produktionen är svårbedömd både för den enskilda deponin och på nationell nivå. Potentialen för gasutvinning i deponier bedöms i det här examensarbetet vara större än vad som har prognostiserats. Perioden för gasuttag sträcker sig längre än vad man trott med anledning av att mycket av det organiska materialet i gamla deponier fortfarande inte har brutits ner, samt att gasproduktion fortfarande sker. Med anledning av de låga driftskostnaderna bör deponigasutvinning fortskrida så länge som det är tekniskt möjligt och ekonomiskt hållbart. Genom provtagningar av avfallet i kombination med mätningar som sträcker sig över längre perioder, skulle bättre kännedom om metangasproduktionen i deponier kunna fås.There are a large number of landfill sites in Sweden. The total number is estimated to be somewhere between 4000 to 8000 landfills. In 2007 there were 142 landfill sites still operating, three years later the number of operating landfills decreased to 76. The municipalities are at present carrying out an inventory of old landfill sites in Sweden. The focus is on the location and risk classification of the landfill sites. There is a substantial uncertainty of the content and the progress of the degradation process unless the landfill is dug out. Methane containing landfill gas is produced when the organic matter in the waste is degraded. Since methane is a potent green house gas the emissions of landfill gas will contribute to the green house effect. The extent of the emissions is usually quantified using the IPCC model or similar. The models require certain estimations to be made such as the amount of gas that is extracted, the half-life of the organic matter and the composition of the waste. The aim of the report was therefore to look into these estimations and how these can effect the landfill gas production. The aim was also to evaluate whether the methane emissions from landfills is a major contributor to the green house gas emissions in comparison to other sources. The master thesis has been carried out through a literature study and interviews with landfill owners that resulted in a sensitivity analysis. The plausibility of the IPCC model was studied by carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the efficiency of the gas extraction system and how this will influence the total emissions of landfill gas. An overview of the connection between the land fill gas production and the decomposition of the organic matter could be realized by analyzing the material in the landfill through tests on different depths in the landfill when drilling new gas wells. The extracted amounts of landfill gas are also contradictive to the estimation of the half-life of 7,5 years that is assumption regularly made within the IPCC- model. This theory is supported by the inadequate decomposition of organic material in old landfill sites. The reduced amounts of waste that is landfilled and the prohibition of landfilling of organic and combustible waste in 2005 are also supporting this theory. The main methane sources in Sweden are ruminants from the agricultural sector and landfills. In 1990 the forecast of the methane emissions of the two sectors were equal. The forecast of today shows that the agricultural emissions are more or less the same but the emissions from landfill are halved. Another conclusion was that the efficiency of the gas extraction is varying in a short- term and in a long-term perspective. Depending on when a measurement is carried out there will be a variation of the efficiency of the gas extraction system. Anyhow annual values of the extracted amounts are calculated based on a few occasional measurements over very short time periods. Moreover, the yearly efficiency is determined based on real extracted values of methane and calculated total values of methane production that are non-comparable. The potential of gas extraction is probably larger than what has been predicted and the period of gas extraction is probably longer than expected. Supported by the low operation costs for the gas extraction the extraction should be carried out as long as it is technically possible and economically reasonable. Analyzing the material in the landfill site will increase the understanding of the gas production and the degradation of the waste in the landfill.
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De, Pryck Kari. "Expertise under controversy : the case of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC)." Thesis, Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018IEPP0037/document.
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L'expertise internationale joue un rôle important dans la mise à l’agenda d’enjeux environnementaux globaux. Ces évaluations sont souvent contestées, en particulier là où les faits et les valeurs sont fortement imbriqués. Cette thèse examine le cas du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), une des organisations d’experts les plus contestées. Elle s'intéresse plus généralement à comment ces organisations maintiennent leur autorité, en croisant les apports théoriques des études des sciences et des techniques et de la sociologie des organisations internationales. Un argument central est que le GIEC, en partie à cause de l'univers controversé dans lequel il évolue, est devenu une bureaucratie internationale. La thèse identifie quatre arrangements institutionnels sur lesquels l'organisation s'est appuyée pour maintenir son autorité. Premièrement, elle s'est efforcée de maintenir une représentation équilibrée des États, principalement entre pays développés et pays en développement. Deuxièmement, il a mis en place des mécanismes de gouvernance qui permettent aux gouvernements de jouer un rôle dans le processus d'évaluation, encourageant la “reappropriation” de ses conclusions. Troisièmement, il a procéduralisé le processus d'évaluation pour formaliser le rôle de ses différentes parties et protéger l'organisation contre les critiques. Quatrièmement, il est plus attentif à la gestion de la communication. Ces arrangements sont régulièrement renégociés dans le contexte de nouveaux défis et controverses. Au-delà du GIEC, ils offrent de nouvelles perspectives pour observer l'imbrication de l'autorité politique et épistémiqueIn the last decades, international expertise has been essential to put global environmental problems on the international agenda. These assessments are often contested, especially on issues where facts and values are profoundly entangled. This thesis investigates the case of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), one of the most authoritative, albeit contested expert organisation. It is more generally interested in how these organisations construct and maintain their authority, drawing on insights from Science and Technology Studies and sociological approaches to international organisations. A central argument is that, partly as a result of the controversial universe in which it has evolved, the IPCC has grown into an international bureaucracy. The thesis identifies four institutional arrangements on which the organisation has relied to maintain its authority. First, it has strived for a balanced representation of all nations, and in particular between developed and developing countries. Second, it has put in place governing mechanisms that allow governments to play a central role in the assessment process, encouraging the ‘ownership’ of its conclusions. Third, it has increasingly proceduralised the assessment, to formalise the role of its different parts and protect the organisation against criticism. Four, it has been more attentive to the management of the information displayed about its work. These arrangements are regularly renegotiated in the context of new challenges and controversies. Beyond the IPCC, they provide relevant lenses to observe the intertwining of political and epistemic authority at the international level
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Hughes, Hannah R. "Practices of power and knowledge in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)." Thesis, Aberystwyth University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2160/ed950eee-0676-419b-9d2f-864b3e49f3dd.
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This thesis explores how and by whom climate change is written. Although climate change has the potential to impact all ways of life, not all have the power to determine its meaning. In order to identify the actors with the symbolic power to name climate change, the basis of this authority and the activities through which shared environmental problems are named, this thesis examines one of the central sites of meaning production: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Deploying the sociological approach and thinking tools of Pierre Bourdieu, the IPCC is positioned at the centre of the international political struggle over climate change. It is from within this social location that the thesis re-constructs the actors, activities and forms of authority constituting the IPCC’s assessments of climate change as a practice of writing. In order to determine the forces structuring the IPCC’s writing of climate change the thesis identifies the actors that make up the organisation and follows the assessment report along the pathway of its formation. Documenting the report’s construction from the panel’s decision to repeat the assessment process to government approval of the final product reveals the interrelationship and reinforcing nature of scientific, political, economic, and organisational order in the IPCC’s assessment activities. As a result of these forces and the actors they empower, the meaning of climate change is being written in and through the order that generated the problem.
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Ferrero, Bruno. "Estudo comparativo da estrutura e variabilidade das massas de água a partir das simulações numéricas do 4RA/IPCC." Universidade de São Paulo, 2009. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21132/tde-29042010-162547/.
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O avanço da tecnologia computacional e a sofisticação da modelagem numérica nos últimos anos tornou possível a realização de diversas simulações do clima terrestre. Essas simulações buscam reproduzir a dinâmica e a variabilidade do clima global, e consequentemente prever o clima futuro. Dentro do sistema climático, o oceano é o compartimento responsável por manter estabilidade do clima. Processos oceânicos como a formação e distribuição de massas de água têm um papel chave no armazenamento e redistribuição de energia pelo sistema. Mudanças nesses fenômenos podem implicar em variações drásticas do clima atual. Considerando isso, o presente trabalho visa descrever a estrutura espaço-temporal das massas de água do Oceano Atlântico Sul e do Oceano Austral. Para isso foram utilizados dados de modelos climáticos que foram utilizados na elaboração do 4° Relatório de Avaliação do Painel Intergovernamental para as Mudanças Climáticas. Os modelos são: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2 e GFDL CM2.1. Dentre as diversas simulações são comparados os experimentos para o século XX (20c3m) e o experimento que assume a concentração de CO2 aumentando a uma taxa de 1% ao ano até o valor inicial duplicar (1pctto2x). Os resultados mostraram um aumento da temperatura da Água Intermediaria Antártica (AIA) e da Água Profunda Circumpolar (CDW). As densidades delas diminuíram significativamente tanto no cenário 20c3m quanto no 1pctto2x. A Água de Fundo Antártica (AFA) sofreu um resfriamento e passou a ocupar níveis mais profundos em ambos os cenários. As variações registradas no 1pctto2x foram mais intensas do que aquelas observadas no experimento 20c3m. Já variabilidade temporal das massas de água foram bastante divergentes entre os quatro modelos.The development and sophistication of numerical models in recent years has allowed to perform many climate system\'s simulations. Such simulations aim to reproduce the dynamics and variability of the climate and consequently predict future climate and possible climate changes. Oceanic processes such as formation and distribution of water masses have an important role in understanding the oceans as a reservoir of salt, dissolved gases and heat. Considering that changes in such processes may have great impact in global and regional climate this work aims to describe spatial and temporal variability of water masses in the South Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. Data from the numerical simulations used for the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (4AR/IPCC) were used. Four climate models were chosen: ECHAM5/MPI-OM, IPSL-CM4-V1, MIROC3.2, NOAA / GFDL CM2.1. Results from the Climate of the 20th Century (20c3m) and the 1% per year CO2 increase (to doubling) experiment (1pctto2x) were analyzed. The four models show a positive trend of temperature and a freshening trend of the Antartic Intemediate Water (AAIW), Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and the Antartic Deep Water (AADW). The densities of these water masses become significantly lighter in the 20c3m scenario. In the 1pctto2x scenario in the AAIW and CDW moved to upper layers. Also in this scenario there is a cooling of the AADW, moving this water mass to deeper layers.
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Beck, Silke. "Das Klimaexperiment und der IPCC Schnittstellen zwischen Wissenschaft und Politik in der internationalen Politik." Marburg Metropolis-Verl, 2000. http://d-nb.info/995863210/04.
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Pereira, Augusto Andrade. "Projeções futuras do oceano Atlântico Sudoeste em dois cenários de aquecimento global." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/21/21132/tde-20042012-160438/.
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O Atlântico Sudoeste comporta uma das regiões oceânicas mais energéticas do planeta: a Confluência Brasil-Malvinas (CBM). Essa região encerra o giro subtropical do Atlântico Sul e possui fundamental importância para a dinâmica desse oceano bem como para o clima regional. Através de saídas de modelos numéricos acoplados do 4°?elatório do IPCC, descreve-se o comportamento dessa região em dois cenários futuros de aquecimento global: um de elevada emissão de gases estufa (A1b) e o outro mais ameno em termos de impactos antrópicos (B2). Ambos os cenários apresentaram fortes tendências de aumento de temperatura sobretudo na superfície (chegando a 0,065°C/ano no cenário A1b e 0,055°C/ano no B2). A salinidade de superfície mostrou forte tendência positiva do Equador até a região da CBM, e negativa em maiores latitudes. A posição média da CBM desloca-se em aproximadamente 1,1° para sul no cenário A1b (entre 2066 e 2100) e 0,9° no cenário B2. O padrão espectral dessa posição (dominado pelo ciclo anual no século XX) é dominado pela variabilidade de baixa frequência no cenário A1b. Tais modificações na média e no espectro da posição da CBM estão associados à intensificação e mudança da Corrente do Brasil.Southwestern Atlantic comprises one of the most energetic region of the world: Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC). This region lies within the Southern Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and holds fundamental importance for this oceanic dynamics as well as for the regional climate. Through numerical modeling output coupled to IPCC\'s 4th Report, it is sunk to describe this region behavior for two distinct future scenarios: high greenhouse gases emission (A1b) and a milder one in terms of anthropic impacts (B2). Both scenarios have shown strong temperature increasing tendencies, especially on the surface (reaching up to 0.065°C/year in A1b and 0.055°C/year in B2). Surface salinity have also shown strong positive tendency from the Equator to the BMC region, and negative in higher latitudes. BMC medium position is shifted around 1.1°S in A1b scenario (between 2066 and 2010) and 0.9° in B2. Spectral pattern on this position (dominated for XX century annual cycle) is controlled by low-frequency variabilities in A1b scenario. These modifications in average and spectral patterns of BMC position are linked to the intensification and changing of Brazil current.
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Sjökvist, Malin, and Rasmus Axelsson. "”Man får inte vatten i stövlarna på en gång” : En undersökning om miljöbevakningen i Rapport och Dagens Nyheter i samband med IPCC:s klimatrapporter." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-21542.
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Morgan, Maurice Richard. "Climate change in the North Atlantic relevant to the global warming hypothesis." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.312070.
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Volsky, Uladzimir. "Prepare Russia to meet IPCC 2050, based on dynamic MFA approach for greenhouse gas emissions." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for vann- og miljøteknikk, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-19217.
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An integrated MFA (Material Flow Analyse) model was developed for Russia, based on the year 2009. Integration was done between MFA, energy and greenhouse gas (GHG).Technologies in all production related processes of aluminium cycle were analyzed. Energy consumption and emissions were calculated throughout the aluminium cycle. This technology information and calculations were used in my scenarios for possible reduction of emissions.After the agreement with my supervisor the historical in-use stock was not done. Assumption here is that demand will increase.A sensitivity analyze was not conducted due the fact that that type of analyze can not be used for large changes in the system.If all scenarios are implemented then the decrease of total GHG emissions in aluminium production in Russia will equal to 22.3% and decrease in the total energy consumption will equal to 38,4%.
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Roeder, Geoffrey Gilbert. "Climate models in modal adverbials : representational practice and deep uncertainty in the IPCC summary documents." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/39937.
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In a warming climate, policymakers require the best available information to develop the most effective responses. These responses could work to mitigate the worst consequences of climatic change or support adaption to the unavoidable ones. However, the challenges of communicating deeply uncertain information from statistical climatology to a non-technical audience are manifold. The complex uncertainties inherent in the development and study of General Circulation Models (GCMs), statistical climatology’s primary inferential tool, exacerbate these challenges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a U.N. body formed to solve this problem. Employing standardized sets of modal adverbials to indicate the certainty of a finding, the IPCC works to regularly communicate all policy-relevant uncertainties. The present thesis, analyzing the IPCC’s “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report” (SYR) and its attendant “Summary for Policymakers” (SPM), argues that the IPCC’s recently much-criticized treatment of uncertainty is a direct response to the combative politics of climate change. A comparison of the IPCC’s treatment of a few key findings to a number of independent analyses of the same highlights the problem. Through a linguistic and rhetorical analysis of the SYR and SPM, I argue that a number of problematic uncertainties are represented as if politically manageable. Independent literature on the reliability of long-term inference from GCMs cautions against such an interpretation. Partly motivating the IPCC’s practice (evidenced in IPCC-internal literature) is desire to control politically hostile and possibly inaccurate interpretations of the uncertainties. Nevertheless, forming adaptive policies on such highly uncertain findings could lead to ineffectual and economically wasteful infrastructure projects. Such policies could also distract from effective responses that might mitigate the worst climatic changes. Following recent sociological and historical work in the discipline of Science and Technology Studies, I argue that the IPCC’s problematic schema for the communication of uncertainty is best understood as a response to the contemporary democratic climate of distrust and distance. The IPCC’s modal adverbials, interpreted as a complex form of social and literary technology, are an attempt to erect a new and ambitious boundary around what constitutes a politically-stable scientific fact and what constitutes a scientific topic under deep investigation.
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Mahony, M. "Epistemic geographies of climate change : the IPCC and the spaces, boundaries and politics of knowing." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2013. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/48699/.
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Science, like other realms of human activity, has its geographies. It proceeds in and through space, and participates in the construction of the political and cultural geographies by which human interactions with the nonhuman come to be known, understood and governed. The phenomenon of climate change stands at this juncture of science, politics, and the elemental materiality of the nonhuman. High-profile controversies about the physical reality, effects and management of the changing climate point to more deep-seated contestations about the place of science in modern democratic societies. This thesis engages with literatures on the historical and cultural geographies of science in order to open-up questions about the situatedness of climate change knowledges, the contested boundaries between the scientific and the political, and the spatial politics of relating epistemic claims to normative interventions in the world. The thesis proceeds through a series of linked case studies which traverse a range of emergent transnational spaces of knowledge production. It begins inside the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and moves through the contested spaces of international climate diplomacy at the 2009 Copenhagen climate talks and through diverse cultures of knowledge authorisation in Indian climate politics. The thesis develops the notions of ‘boundary spaces’ and ‘epistemic geographies’ to capture the emergence, conjuncture and contestation of different modes of knowing and governing climate change. By following the objects of climate change knowledges – like visualisations, numerical targets, simulation models and predictions – conceptual distinctions between the spaces of knowledge production and consumption break down. Instead, a picture emerges of travelling knowledges which emphasises mutability, interpretive flexibility, and the spatial and discursive co-production of the epistemic and the normative. It is argued that by moving from ‘geographies of science’ to ‘epistemic geographies’, the hybridity of science and politics can be more effectively written-in to our accounts of contemporary knowledge politics.
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Tavares, Mônica Weber. "Temperatura e precipitação na América do Sul: situação atual e perspectivas futuras do IPCC/AR5." Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2013. http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/5274.
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Previous issue date: 2013-07-25Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is able to influence the atmospheric circulation and consequently changes weather patterns in both local and global scale. This study aimed to understand how temperature and precipitation in South America respond to modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Dipole (AD), for current and future conditions, considering an extreme emission scenario of GreenHouse effect (GHG). We used four models as part of coupled model of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change/Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR5), intercomparison project, Phase 5 (CMIP5): MRI (Meteorology Research Institute, Japan), INM (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Russia), NCC (Norwegian Climate Center, Norway) and ECHAM / MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany). The results have shown that the dominant patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, are respectively the ENSO and Dipole Atlantic which were better simulated by the models MPI and NCC (INM and MRI) and proved satisfactory (unsatisfactory) and able (unable) to reproduce the response of precipitation and temperature in relation to observed climate over the South America. For future conditions it has been found more intense episodes of ENSO, while for AD the inter-hemispheric gradients is more intense. Furthermore, it is projected that this pattern, known as the negative phase of AD, may significantly influence the atmospheric circulation and alter the patterns of temperature and precipitation in South America.
A Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) é capaz de influenciar na circulação atmosférica e consequentemente alterar os padrões climáticos tanto em escala local quanto global. Este trabalho buscou entender como a temperatura e precipitação na América do Sul respondem em função dos modos de variabilidade climática El Niño Oscilação-Sul (ENSO) e Dipolo do Atlântico (DA), para as condições atuais e futuras, considerando um cenário extremo de emissão de Gases de Efeito Estuda (GEE). Foram utilizados quatro modelos climáticos acoplados do Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change/Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR5), pertencentes ao Projeto de Intercomparação de Modelos Acoplados, Fase 5 (CMIP5): MRI (Meteorology Research Institute, Japão), INM (Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Rússia), NCC (Norwegian Climate Center, Noruega) e ECHAM/MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Alemanha). Os resultados mostraram que os padrões dominantes nos Oceanos Pacífico e Atlântico, são respectivamente o ENSO e Dipolo do Atlântico e foram melhor reproduzidos pelos modelos MPI e NCC (INM e MRI) e se mostraram satisfatórios (insatisfatórios) e capazes (incapazes) de reproduzir a resposta da precipitação e temperatura, em relação ao clima observado sobre a AS. Para condições futuras têm-se episódios de ENSO mais intensos, enquanto que para configurações do tipo DA notam-se gradientes inter-hemisféricos mais intensos, onde se observou TSM's mais baixas no Atlântico Norte. Além disso, projeta-se que este padrão, conhecido como fase negativa do DA, poderá influenciar significativamente na circulação atmosférica e alterar os padrões de temperatura e precipitação na AS.
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Hirst, David. "Negotiating climates : the politics of climate change and the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1979-1992." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2014. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/negotiating-climates-the-politics-of-climate-change-and-the-formation-of-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-19791992(ee23545e-3448-4a74-aa8a-36b5d622a81a).html.
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Climate change emerged as a topic of public and political concern in the 1980s alongside the discovery of the ‘Antarctic Ozone Hole.’ The issue was raised up the political agenda in the latter half of the 1980s by scientists and international administrators operating in a transnational setting –culminating in the eventual formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. Created to produce a comprehensive assessment of the science, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change, the Panel managed to bridge to the two worlds of science and politics as a hybrid science-policy organisation, meeting the divergent needs of a variety of groups, specifically in the US Government. This thesis will provide an analysis of the negotiations that resulted in the formation of the IPCC in 1988. In particular, I examine the power politics of knowledge production in the relationship between a transnational set of scientists engaged in assessments of climate change and national policymakers. I argue that the IPCC was established as a means of controlling who could speak for the climate, when and how, and as such the Panel legitimised and privileged certain voices at the expense of others. In addition to tracing and examining the history of international climate change assessments in the 1980s, I will scrutinise how the issue became a topic of international political concern. Focusing on the negotiations between the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the United States of America in the formation of the IPCC, I will argue against the received view that the U.S. has consistently been in a battle with climate science and the IPCC. As I will show that the U.S. government was both integral to the decision to establish the IPCC and also one of its strongest backers. Following the formation of the Panel I examine the ad hoc decisions taken and processes adopted during the First Assessment (AR1) that contributed to the anchoring of the IPCC as the central authority on climate related knowledge. As such I show that in the absence of any formal procedural guidance there was considerable leeway for the scientists and Working Group Chairs to control and shape the content of the assessment. Finally, I analyse the ways in which U.S. and UK policymakers strategically engaged with the Panel. Significantly, I show that the ways in which the U.S. pushed all political debates to the heart of the scientific assessment imparted a linear approach to policymaking –assessment precedes and leads the policymaking –contributing to the increasing entanglement of the science and politics of climate change. Moreover, the narrow technical framing of the issue and the largely tokenistic attempts to involve participants from developing countries in the IPCC resulted in the UN resolutions (backed by developing countries) establishing the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee/United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/UNFCC) contrary to the wishes of U.S. policymakers.
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Veltrone, Allan Rogério. "Interdisciplinaridade na questão climática : a participação das ciências sociais no Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC)." Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2017. https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/8776.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
Our goal in this study is to analyze the production, formation and acting of the authorscoordinators of the two most relevant chapters of the fifth report of the IPCC Working Group II (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deal with human dimensions of climate change, and so discuss the contribution of social sciences around this debate. The discussion of the thesis is placed within a framework of interdisciplinary, in which demand for scientific cooperation between different areas appears as a necessity imposed by environmental issues. Our hypothesis is that the fact the interdisciplinary is happening, but when it occurs, that occurs in a hierarchical fashion, where the strands of the social sciences participating in the debate, only do so when they use the same parameters used by the ruling science in discussions climate change. The research shows that the hypothesis is partially confirmed, but there is a progressive tendency to incorporate the classic areas of social sciences, such as anthropology, political science and sociology by the IPCC.
Nosso objetivo neste trabalho é analisar a produção, formação e atuação dos autorescoordenadores dos dois capítulos mais relevantes do quinto relatório do grupo de trabalho II do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) que versam sobre dimensões humanas das mudanças climáticas, e assim discutir a contribuição das Ciências Sociais em torno deste debate. A discussão da tese é colocada dentro de um quadro de interdisciplinaridade, no qual a demanda por cooperação cientifica entre diferentes áreas aparece como uma necessidade imposta pelas questões ambientais. Nossa hipótese é a de que a interdisciplinaridade de fato vem ocorrendo, mas quando ocorre, ocorre de maneira hierárquica, onde as vertentes das ciências sociais que participam do debate, somente o fazem quando se valem dos mesmos parâmetros utilizados pelas ciências dominantes nas discussões sobre mudanças climáticas. A pesquisa mostra que a hipótese parcialmente se confirma, mas observa-se uma tendência progressiva de incorporação das áreas clássicas das ciências sociais, como antropologia, ciência politica e sociologia por parte do IPCC.
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Davis, Michael A. "Cloud-Radiative Feedback and Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback In the Southeast Pacific Ocean Simulated by IPCC AR4 GCMs." The Ohio State University, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1313350254.
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Surendrababu, Jayashree. "Modeling the Impact of Projected Land Cover on Lyme Disease Emergence." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/64242.
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Lyme disease is a common tick borne disease in the US. Lyme disease emerged from the Northeast and in the past decade, Virginia has been witnessing a rapidly increasing trend in incidence. This thesis uses land cover projection data as a basis to look at the potential future trend of Lyme disease incidence in Virginia for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) scenarios of A1B and A2, which indicate a global and regional focus respectively. This study is a continuation of previous work done by an NSF funded research team at Virginia Tech, in exploring the variables affecting Lyme disease in Virginia.
A Poisson point process is implemented in this thesis with land cover parameters (implemented land, water bodies, and edge metrics) and demographic parameters (population percentage and per capita income) as the spatial covariates. Lyme disease incidence data obtained from the Virginia Department of Health was used for model validation. The overall model was implemented using Python and its associated libraries while ArcGIS software was used for preliminary covariate analysis and data visualization.
This thesis generates risk maps for A1B and A2 scenarios for each decade from 2010 through 2060. Spatial occurrence of disease incidence has been generated by the Poisson point process and the risk level of each county in Virginia has been calculated based on the incidence count predicted for it. Population and area at risk under each scenario for each decade was calculated. Results show that in A1B scenario 22.1% and 42.9% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk and in the A2 scenario, 21% and 33% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 and 2060 respectively. In terms of the area, A1B scenario has 28% under high risk in 2010 and 66% of the total area under high risk in 2060, while A2 scenarGIS, Lyme disease, Land cover projections, IPCC scenariosio has 22.4% under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 62.7% of the total area in Virginia is under high risk in 2060.Master of Science
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Girod, Bastien. "Why six baseline scenarios? a research on the reasons for the growing baseline uncertainty of the IPCC scenarios /." Zürich : ETH, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, HES, Institute for Human-Environment Systmes, 2006. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=dipl&nr=277.
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Trulsson, Sara. "Active Learning : a Supportive Teaching Method to Address Climate Change in Higher Education." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-191308.
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Universities world wide do efforts to integrate education on climate change in the educational programs, but teaching about climate change is challenging: the climate system is complex, future prognoses include difficult terms of likeliness and the topic as such awakes emotions. Simulations and games are sometimes used to address climate change matters, and along with an increasing number of available interactive online simulations there is an on-going revolution in how online-material is used to provide students with information in higher education. Some practitioners move parts of the informative course material online in order to get more time for active learning – learning processes in which the student is participating more actively than just listening. This master thesis investigates if active learning can support students when learning about climate change in higher technical education. Data for the research was collected through three case studies of interactive seminars, in climate related courses at the Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden, and at the University of Graz, Austria. The active learning was facilitated through gaming sessions with a climate board game, with exercises in vocabulary and discussions as well as explanations of the physical science basis. One student group was provided with a series of lectures prior to the board gaming session, whereas the other two groups were participating in a single seminar with the flipped classroom approach: students followed a study instruction with online material as well as reading of scientific papers on Earth’s climate system and climate change before the interactive gaming seminar took place. Analysis of survey responds (n=102), mind-map reflections (n=14) and interviews (n=5) led to the development of three key findings: (1) students’ attitudes toward learning about climate change involves emotions, (2) the active gaming seminar increased the students’ understanding of climate change and (3) students’ confidence - in their own understanding as well as in their ability to explain climate change – increased through the participation in the active learning seminar. Moreover, a reflection drawn from the results in this study indicates that universities could play an important role in climate communication; if a university provides an introduction to climate change, the students can be “pushed over a threshold”, so that future participation in discussions on the topic may become less distant. Using games as an active learning tool in the introduction can increase student understanding and confidence in the topic of climate change - and doing so in a supportive and enjoyable manner.Universitet världen över gör ansträngningar för att integrera undervisning av klimatförändringarna i sina utbildningsprogram, men klimatförändringarna är ett utmanande ämne: klimatsystemet är komplext, framtidsprognoser innefattar svårtolkade sannolikhetstermer och ämnet som sådant väcker många känslor. Simulationer och spel att en lärandemetod för att beröra ämnet, och samtidigt som det finns ett allt större utbud av undervisningsmaterial om klimatförändringarna på internet, sker en snabb förändring i hur online-material används för att förse studenter med information i den högre utbildningen. I vissa kurser flyttas en del av det informativa kursmaterialet till online-plattformar för att frigöra mer tid för aktivt lärande – lärande, i vilket studenten är mer aktiv än att enbart lyssna. I den här masteruppsatsen utreds huruvida aktivt lärande kan stödja studenter i lärandet om klimatförändringarna i högre teknisk utbildning. Data till studien samlades från tre studentgrupper som deltog i interaktiva klimatseminarier på Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan, KTH, och på Universitetet i Graz. För att uppnå aktivt lärande användes ett klimatbrädspel, med övningar i begrepp, vokabulär och diskussioner samt bearbetning av vetenskapliga förklaringar kring klimatförändringarna. En studentgrupp lyssnade till en föreläsningsserie före deltagandet i spelseminariet, de andra två grupperna deltog däremot enbart i ett seminarium med flipped classroom metoden: studenterna följde en instuderingsinstruktion med online-material och vetenskapliga skrifter innan de kom till spelseminariet. Analys av enkätsvar (n=102), mind-map-reflektioner (n=14) och intervjuer (n=5) ledde till tre huvudsakliga slutsatser: (1) studenternas attityder kring lärandet av klimatförändringarna påverkas av känslor, (2) studiens spelseminarier ökade studenternas förståelse av klimatförändringarna och (3) efter den aktiva lärandemetoden var studenterna mer bekväma med att förklara klimatförändringarna samt fick större förtroende till sin kunskap i ämnet. Vidare kan resultaten i den här studien tolkas som att klimatundervisning i högre utbildning kan utgöra en viktig roll för mottagandet av klimatkommunikation; om ett universitet förser studenter med en introduktion till vetenskap om klimatförändringarna kan studenterna ”tvingas över en tröskel”, så att framtida deltagande i diskussioner i ämnet kan bli mindre avlägsna. Studenterna i studien upplevde nämligen en brist på trovärdig information om klimatförändringarna i det dagliga nyhetsflödet, därför uppskattade de att ta del av vetenskaplig information och komplexa diskussioner under spelseminariet. Att använda utbildande brädspel som en aktivt-lärande-metod kan öka studenters självsäkerhet och förståelse av klimatförändringarna – på ett stödjande och glädjefyllt sätt.
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Grönfors, Sara. "Klimatförändringar på ön Fongafale, Tuvalu : En analys av miljöpåverkan och attityder." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för biologi och miljö (BOM), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-26370.
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This thesis aimed to investigate how a rising sea level would affect the livable area of the island Fongafale, Tuvalu. Through the IPCC stabilization scenarios it was examined which areas of the island that would be affected by flooding. The local population’s perceptions of the effects of climate change were studied to see how the consequences of a world-wide problem such as global warming affect people's lives. The paper clarified the Tuvaluans place in the discussion of climate refugees, explained IPCC's work and described the results of previous studies concerning people in Fongafales perceptions and concerns about climate-related changes. The result shows already flooded areas with important buildings, such as airport and government buildings and that with a rising sea level, an increasing part of the island will suffer. The survey shows a stronger tendency to concern for lack of water and work than for a climate-related sea level rise, and that the main reason for a possible emigration would primarily be work-related.
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Serra, Yolande L., and Kerrie Geil. "Historical and Projected Eastern Pacific and Intra-Americas Sea TD-Wave Activity in a Selection of IPCC AR5 Models." AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/624034.
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The tracks of westward-propagating synoptic disturbances across the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS) and far-eastern Pacific, known as easterly waves or tropical depression (TD) waves, are an important feature of the region's climate. They are associated with heavy rainfall events, seed the majority of tropical cyclones, and contribute to the mean rainfall across the region. This study examines the ability of current climate models (CMIP5) to simulate TD-wave activity and associated environmental factors across the IAS and far-eastern Pacific as compared to reanalysis. Model projections for the future are then compared with the historical model experiment to investigate the southward shift in CMIP5 track density and the environmental factors that may contribute to it. While historical biases in TD-wave track-density patterns are well correlated with model biases in sea surface temperature and midlevel moisture, the projected southward shift of the TD track density by the end of the twenty-first century in CMIP5 models is best correlated with changes in deep wind shear and midlevel moisture. In addition, the genesis potential index is found to be a good indicator of both present and future regions of high TD-wave track density for the models in this region. This last result may be useful for understanding the more complex relationship between tropical cyclones and this index in models found in other studies.
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Oliveira, Flavio Natal Mendes de. "Climatologia de bloqueios atmosféricos no hemisfério Sul: observações, simulações do clima do século XX e cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/14/14133/tde-02102011-115448/.
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Este estudo discute uma climatologia de 59 anos (1949-2007) de bloqueios no Hemisfério Sul (SH) usando dados de altura geopotencial em 500-hPa das reanálises do National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). A variabilidade espaço-temporal dos eventos de bloqueio e associações com o El Niño/Oscilação do Sul (ENOS) também foram examinadas. Adicionalmente, os bloqueios foram investigados em dois Modelos de Circulação Geral Acoplados Atmosfera-Oceano de clima (MCGAO) do Intergovernamental Painel for Climate Change (IPCC), o ECHAM5/MPI-OM e o MIROC 3.2. Dois cenários simulados foram analisados: O clima do século XX e o cenário de emissão A1B. Os episódios do ENOS foram identificados usando dois métodos. O primeiro foi o Índice Oceânico Mensal do Niño (ONI) do Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). O segundo método foi baseado em Funções Empíricas Ortogonais (EOF) e foi aplicado nos MCGAOs. Similarmente, também foi examinado a influencia combinada do ENOS e a Oscilação Antártica (AAO) na ocorrência e características dos bloqueios. O índice diário da AAO foi obtido pelo CPC-NCEP. Os índices convencionais de bloqueios detectam principalmente variações longitudinais. Este trabalho propõe um índice de bloqueio que detecta, além de variações longitudinais também as variações latitudinais dos bloqueios. Cinco setores relevantes de bloqueios foram examinados em detalhes: Indico Sudoeste (SB1), Pacífico Sudoeste (SB2), Pacífico Central (SB3), Pacífico Sudeste (SB4) e Atlântico Sudoeste (SB5). Além disso, foram investigados duas grandes regiões do Pacífico Sul: Pacífico Oeste e Pacífico Leste. Foi encontrado que a escala média típica dos eventos de bloqueio varia entre 1,5 e 2,5 dias. Além disso, a duração dos eventos depende da latitude, com eventos de maior duração observados em latitudes mais altas. Diferenças longitudinais estatisticamente significativas na freqüência do escoamento bloqueado foram observadas entre as fases Quente e Neutra do ENOS desde o outono a primavera. Episódios intensos da fase Quente do ENOS (isto é, moderados a fortes) tendem a modificar o local preferencial de bloqueio, mas não a freqüência. Por outro lado, os episódios fracos da fase Quente do ENOS estiveram associados relativamente com alta freqüência. Os Eventos de bloqueio durante o ENOS+ duram, em média, mais um dia relativamente aos episódios Neutros. Em contraste, a fase Fria do ENOS (ENOS-) caracterizou-se pela redução dos eventos de bloqueio sobre o setor do Pacífico Central, exceto durante os meses do verão austral. Entretanto, nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significativa foi detectada na duração dos eventos. Composições de anomalias de vento em 200-hPa indicam que o enfraquecimento (fortalecimento) do jato polar em torno de 60ºS durante a AAO negativa (positiva) em ambas as fases do ENOS tem uma importância significativa no aumento (redução) dos eventos de bloqueio. Um significativo aumento estatístico dos eventos sobre o setor do Pacífico Sudeste foi observado durante a AAO negativa em ambas as fases do ENOS. Ainda, um aumento (redução) dos eventos foi observado sobre a região do Pacífico Oeste na fase negativa (positiva) da AAO durante o ENOS-. Em contraste, durante o ENOS+ não houve diferenças estatisticamente significativas na distribuição longitudinal dos eventos separado de acordo com as fases opostas da AAO, embora haja um aumento (redução) dos eventos da região do Pacífico Oeste para o Pacífico Leste durante a fase negativa (positiva) da AAO. Os MCGAOs simularam corretamente a amplitude do ciclo anual observado. Também, ambos os MCGAOs simularam melhor a duração e o local preferencial do que freqüência. Nenhum MCGAO simulou adequadamente a freqüência durante a fase Neutra do ENOS. O ECHAM5/MPI-OM (rodada 2) mostra um erro sistemático que levam a uma superestimativa na freqüência de eventos sobre o Pacífico Leste durante as fases Neutra e Fria do ENOS. As diferenças entre as duas versões do MIROC 3.2 indicam que a alta resolução nos modelos melhora o desempenho em simular a freqüência de bloqueios.This study discusses 59-yr climatology (1949-2007) of Southern Hemisphere (SH) blockings using daily 500-hPa geopotential height data from National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. The spatiotemporal variability of blocking events and associations with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are examined. Additionally, blockings were examined in two Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM), ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC 3.2. Two sets of simulations were examined: the climate of the 20th century and the A1B emission scenario. ENSO episodes were identified using two methods. The first method was the Monthly Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC-NCEP). The second method was based on Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and was applied to identify ENSO episodes in the CGCMs. Similarly, the combined influence of ENSO and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the occurrence and characteristics of blockings was also examined. The daily AAO index was obtained from CPC/NCEP. Most conventional blocking indices detect longitudinal variations of blockings. In this study we propose a new blocking index that detects longitudinal and latitudinal variations of blockings. The following relevant sectors of blocking occurrence were identified and examined in detail: Southeast Indian (SB1), Southwest Pacific (SB2), Central Pacific (SB3), Southeast Pacific (SB4) and Southwest Atlantic (SB5) oceans. In addition, we investigated two large regions of South Pacific: West Pacific and East Pacific. We found that the typical timescale of a blocking event is about ~1.5 2.5 days. Nonetheless, the duration of events depends on the latitude, with larger durations observed at higher latitudes. Statistically significant differences in the longitude of blockings are observed between Warm (ENSO+) and Neutral ENSO phases from the Austral fall to spring. Moderate to strong Warm ENSO episodes modulate the preferred locations of blockings but do not play a significant role for variations in their frequency. On the other hand, weak ENOS+ episodes were associated with relatively high frequency of blockings. Blocking events during ENSO+ last on average one more day compared to events that occur during Neutral episodes. In contrast, Cold (ENOS-) ENSO episodes are characterized by a decrease of blockings over the Central Pacific sector, except during the Austral summer months. However, no statistically significant differences are detected in the duration. Composites of 200-hPa zonal wind anomalies indicate that the weakening (strengthening) of the polar jet around 60oS during negative (positive) AAO phases in both ENSO phases plays a major role for the relative increase (decrease) of blocking events. A statistically significant increase of events over Southeast Pacific is observed during negative AAO phases in both ENSO phases. Moreover, an increase (decrease) of events is observed over West Pacific region when negative (positive) AAO phases occur during ENSO-. In contrast, during ENSO+ there is no statistically significant difference in the longitudinal distribution of events separated according to opposite AAO phases, although there is an increase (decrease) in the events from West Pacific region to East Pacific during negative (positive) AAO phase. The CGCMs investigated in this study correctly simulated the amplitude of observed annual cycle of geopotential height in the extratropics. Also, both CGCMs show a better performance in simulating the duration and preferred locations of blockings than their frequency. None of these CGCMs simulated well the frequency during Neutral ENSO phase. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM (run2) shows systematic biases in some regions. For instance, this model overestimates the frequency of blockings over East Pacific region during Cold and Neutral ENSO phases. The differences between the two versions of MIROC 3.2 indicate that the increase in resolution improves the performance of the model in simulating the frequency of blockings.
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Rajagopal, Seshadri. "Assessing Water Management Impacts of Climate Change for a Semi-arid Watershed in the Southwestern US." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/228475.
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Water managers for the City of Phoenix face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the Salt-Verde basin. From the many Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment, we selected a five-model ensemble, including three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a statistically significant 25% decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. Contrary to previous assessments, this is not caused primarily by changes in the P/E ratio, but is found to result mainly from decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. The results show clearly the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.
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Karpíšková, Dana. "Analýza platebních systémů v České a Irské republice." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-18827.
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The diploma thesis deals with analysis of interbank payment systems in the Czech and in the Irish Republic. There are described basic types of payment systems that serve as background for analysis. Both observe countries are members of EU, so this work includes also brief characteristics of the law frame of EU and payment systems of EU. Farther there are characterized payment systems of both countries. In the Czech Republic operates just one interbank system of payment named CERTIS, while in Ireland operate three systems of payment. The first of them TARGET2-IE serves mainly for large value payments, while remaining two systems IRECC and IPCC serve for retail payments. Finally there is included comparison of payment systems by number of transactions and value of transactions.
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Aparício, Sara Filipa Marques Nunes. "Impacts of climate change scenarios on terrestrial productivity and biomass for energy in the Iberian Peninsula: assessment through the JSBACH model." Master's thesis, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/9093.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão e Sistemas AmbientaisGreenhouse gas abatement policies (as a measure of preventing further contribution to global warming) are expected to increase the demand for renewable sources of energy driving a growing attention on Biomass as a valuable option as a renewable source of energy able to reduce CO2 emissions, by displacing fossil fuel use. The vulnerability of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) to climate changes, along with the fact that it is a water-limited region, drive a great concern and interest in understand the potentials of biomass for energy production under projected climate changes, since water shortage is a projected consequence of it. Henceforth the goals stated for this work include the understanding of the impact magnitude that climate changes and the solely effect of rising CO2 (in accordance to the prescribed in A1B scenario from IPPC) have on biomass and productivity over the IP; the modeling of the interannual variability in terrestrial productivity and biomass across de region (having the period 1960-1990 as reference) and the energy potentials derived by biomass in future scenarios (2060-2090 and 2070-2100 periods). The carbon fluxes were modeled by JSBACH model and its results were handled using GIS and statistical analysis. A better understanding of the applicability (and reliability) of this model on achieving the latter stated goals was another goal purposed in this work. IP has shown a broadly positive response to climate change, i.e. increased productivity under scenarios admitting elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration (increases in GPP by ~41%; in forest NPP by ~54% and herbaceous NPP by ~36%, for 2060-2090 period), and smaller and negative response under scenarios disregarding rising CO2 levels (i.e. CO2 constant at 296ppm). The productivity and biomass correlation with changing climate variables also differed between different CO2 scenarios. The increase of water-use efficiency by 58% was as a result of CO2 fertilization effect, could explain the increase of productivity, although many limitations of the model (such as disregard of nitrogen cycle and land-use dynamics) poses many considerations to the acceptability of results and the overestimating productivity comparatively to many projections for the IP. Notwithstanding the comparison of changes in climate variables, showed a great correlation of results with other authors. A comprehensive analysis of biomass supply and its availability during scenarios with elevated CO2, shown that by 2060-2090, residues from thinning and logging activities over forest biomass have a potential of 0,165 and 0,495 EJ, and residues from agricultural activities (herbaceous biomass) have a potential of 0,346 EJ under a HIGH-YIELD scenario (assuming 40% of residues removal rate), corresponding to a share of current energy consumption of 13, 42 and 30%, respectively. The reasonability of these results was assessed by comparing with similar studies during the reference period.
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Lamarca, Daniel Sá Freire [UNESP]. "Impacto de ondas de calor na produção de ovos de poedeiras: sistema de previsão de mortalidade aplicado à cenários do IPCC." Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/152722.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
A temperatura da superfície do planeta vem aumentando no decorrer dos anos. O Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC) reúne pesquisadores de diversos países e áreas de atuação, tendo como objetivo gerar e organizar as informações formulando cenários futuros de variação de temperatura e precipitação, para que seja possível projetar os possíveis impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais. A agropecuária é um dos setores mais influenciado pelas variações do clima (temperatura e precipitação), visto que os processos de produção agrícola e de produção animal, para cada espécie, possuem faixas ideais de condições ambientais para obter níveis de produção adequados. Na produção de ovos de poedeiras, verifica-se que as mudanças climáticas atingirão o sistema de produção, sendo destaque a mortalidade das aves por ondas de calor. Diante do contexto apresentado, o objetivo geral dessa pesquisa foi desenvolver um sistema fuzzy para previsão de mortalidade de poedeiras e simular cenários futuros baseados na previsão de mudanças climáticas para a região de Bastos-SP, de acordo com o relatório AR5 do IPCC. O modelo de previsão de mortalidade foi baseado em sistema fuzzy e possui como variáveis de entrada: duração da onda de calor (em dias), a temperatura máxima (ºC) e a idade da ave (em semanas) e como única variável de saída a mortalidade (nível de mortalidade). O sistema fuzzy de previsão de mortalidade foi construído a partir de dados e informações presentes na literatura e apresentou um bom nível de predição em termos de acurácia. O sistema obteve uma média 75,48% de taxa de acurácia entre os 25 aviários de duas granjas analisados durante seu processo de validação. A capacidade de predição do sistema apontou uma taxa de acurácia do sistema que variou entre 50% e 100%. Os resultados da pesquisa para projeções climáticas apontam que mesmo nos cenários otimistas do IPCC, segundo as previsões do sistema fuzzy construído, que haverá aumento preocupante de taxa de mortalidade de poedeiras para a região de Bastos-SP.
The surface temperature of the planet has been increasing over the years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings together researchers from different countries and areas of action, with the objective of generating and organizing information by formulating future scenarios of temperature variation and precipitation, so that it is possible to design possible socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Agriculture is one of the sectors most influenced by climatic variations (temperature and precipitation), since the agricultural production and animal production processes, for each species, have ideal ranges of environmental conditions to obtain adequate levels of production. In the production of eggs of laying hens, it is verified that the climatic changes will reach the system of production, being emphasized the mortality of birds by heat waves. In view of the presented context, the general objective of this research was to develop a fuzzy system to predict mortality of laying hens and to simulate future scenarios based on the prediction of climatic changes for the Bastos-SP region, according to the IPCC report AR5. The model of mortality prediction was based on fuzzy system and has as entry variables: heat wave duration (in days), maximum temperature (ºC) and bird age (in weeks) and as the only output variable a mortality (level of mortality). The fuzzy system of mortality prediction was constructed from data and information present in the literature and presented a good level of prediction in terms of accuracy. The system obtained an average 75.48% accuracy rate among the 25 aviaries from two farms analyzed during its validation process. The system prediction capability showed a system accuracy rate ranging from 50% to 100%. The results of the research for climatic projections show that even in the optimistic scenarios of the IPCC, according to the fuzzy system constructed, there will be a worrying increase in the mortality rate of laying hens for the region of Bastos-SP.
CAPES - DEMANDA SOCIAL: 367/16
FAPESP: 2016/25464-8
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LÃzaro, Yvonne Magdalena Campos. ""MudanÃa ClimÃtica no Nordeste do Brasil, AmazÃnia e Bacia do Prata: AvaliaÃÃo dos Modelos do IPCC e CenÃrios para o SÃculo XXI"." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2011. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=6685.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel SuperiorOs modelos globais do CMPI3 para o quarto relatÃrio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) sÃo avaliados para a regiÃo do Nordeste, AmazÃnia e bacia da Prata quanto à representaÃÃo da sazonalidade e da variabilidade plurianual da precipitaÃÃo para o perÃodo de 1901 a 1999. Essa avaliaÃÃo à realizada utilizando-se os dados do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e a reanÃlise 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Quanto à sazonalidade propÃe-se a criaÃÃo de um Ãndice de desempenho, baseado em medidas de correlaÃÃo e erro quadrÃtico mÃdio, para a avaliaÃÃo e classificaÃÃo dos modelos. Quanto à variabilidade plurianual, à aplicada a transformada de ondeletas aos dados observados, e em seguida as rodadas dos modelos sÃo avaliadas e classificadas baseadas em medidas de correlaÃÃo espectral e distÃncia euclidiana entre a variÃncia nas bandas existentes na sÃrie observada. Logo, os modelos sÃo classificados seguindo a avaliaÃÃo geral, sendo para o Nordeste o modelo CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2, para a regiÃo da bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 e para a regiÃo AmazÃnica o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 os que melhor representaram a precipitaÃÃo no sÃculo XX. Para o cenÃrio A1B à feito um anÃlise de projeÃÃes sazonais e tendÃncias plurianuais dos modelos melhor colocados na avaliaÃÃo sazonal e geral de cada regiÃo. Quanto à projeÃÃo sazonal a anÃlise consiste no cÃlculo das anomalias de precipitaÃÃo em todos os modelos para os perÃodos 2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099 em relaÃÃo ao cenÃrio de simulaÃÃes 20C3M durante o perÃodo 1901-1999. Quanto à tendÃncia plurianual para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2099, as precipitaÃÃes anuais sÃo padronizadas, com base nos parÃmetros do cenÃrio 20C3M. Logo à feita uma anÃlise de tendÃncias usando a mÃdia e mediana mÃvel de 10 anos, regressÃo linear, Mann Kendall Sen e Ondeletas. Na tendÃncia por ondeletas o modelo MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3, nÃo indica tendÃncia o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 indica uma tendÃncia de aumento a partir de 2030, o UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 mostra uma tendÃncia de reduÃÃo atà 2050 na regiÃo do Nordeste. Na bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indica tendÃncia de aumento ao longo do sÃculo XXI, o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1mostra aumento a partir de 2030 e o modelo NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 nÃo mostra nenhuma tendÃncia. Na AmazÃnia os modelos CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 nÃo indicam nenhuma tendÃncia ao longo do sÃculo XXI.
The global models of CMPI3 to the fourth report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are evaluated for the Northeast Brazilian region, Amazon region and La Plata basin for the representation of seasonality and multiannual variability of precipitation for the period 1901 to 1999. This evaluation is performed using data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For the seasonality study is proposed to create a performance index based on measures of correlation and mean square error to the evaluation and model classification. For the multiannual variability, is applied the wavelet transform to the observed data, and then models are evaluated and ranked based on measures of spectral correlation and Euclidean distance between the observed variance and models variance in each band. Then, models are classified following the general classification, for the Northeast the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2 model; for La Plata basin the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 model; for the Amazon region the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 model those which best represented the rainfall in the twentieth century. At A1B scenario, is made an analysis of seasonal forecast and multiannual trends of better placed models in the seasonal and general classification. For the seasonal projection, analysis consist in the anomalies precipitation calculations on all models for the periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 during the period 1901- 1999. For the multiannual trends for the period 2010 to 2099, annual observed data are standardized, based on the parameters of the scenario 20C3M. Then is done an analysis with average moving, median moving of 10 years, regression linear, Mann Kendall Sen and Wavelet transform. In wavelets trends the MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3 model does not indicate trend, the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 model indicates an increasing trend from 2030, the UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 model shows a declining trend by 2050 in the Northeast. In La Plata basin, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indicates increasing trend throughout the twenty first century, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1 shows an increase trend from 2030 and the NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 model shows no trend. In the Amazon region, the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 models do not indicate any trend over the twenty-first century.
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Lázaro, Yvonne Magdalena Campos. "Mudança climática no nordeste do Brasil, Amazônia e Bacia do Prata: avaliação dos modelos do IPCC e cenários para o século XXI." reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFC, 2011. http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/17230.
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LÁZARO, Y. M. C. Mudança climática no nordeste do Brasil, Amazônia e Bacia do Prata: avaliação dos modelos do IPCC e cenários para o século XXI. 2011. 89 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil: Recursos Hídricos) – Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2011.Submitted by Hohana Sanders (hohanasanders@hotmail.com) on 2016-04-28T18:18:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2011_dis_ymclázaro.pdf: 5863305 bytes, checksum: d7c7a79de1bae9f26840e6ebc2c985b0 (MD5)
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The global models of CMPI3 to the fourth report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are evaluated for the Northeast Brazilian region, Amazon region and La Plata basin for the representation of seasonality and multiannual variability of precipitation for the period 1901 to 1999. This evaluation is performed using data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). For the seasonality study is proposed to create a performance index based on measures of correlation and mean square error to the evaluation and model classification. For the multiannual variability, is applied the wavelet transform to the observed data, and then models are evaluated and ranked based on measures of spectral correlation and Euclidean distance between the observed variance and models variance in each band. Then, models are classified following the general classification, for the Northeast the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2 model; for La Plata basin the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 model; for the Amazon region the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 model those which best represented the rainfall in the twentieth century. At A1B scenario, is made an analysis of seasonal forecast and multiannual trends of better placed models in the seasonal and general classification. For the seasonal projection, analysis consist in the anomalies precipitation calculations on all models for the periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 during the period 1901- 1999. For the multiannual trends for the period 2010 to 2099, annual observed data are standardized, based on the parameters of the scenario 20C3M. Then is done an analysis with average moving, median moving of 10 years, regression linear, Mann Kendall Sen and Wavelet transform. In wavelets trends the MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3 model does not indicate trend, the GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 model indicates an increasing trend from 2030, the UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 model shows a declining trend by 2050 in the Northeast. In La Plata basin, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indicates increasing trend throughout the twenty first century, the CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1 shows an increase trend from 2030 and the NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 model shows no trend. In the Amazon region, the CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 models do not indicate any trend over the twenty-first century.
Os modelos globais do CMPI3 para o quarto relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) são avaliados para a região do Nordeste, Amazônia e bacia da Prata quanto à representação da sazonalidade e da variabilidade plurianual da precipitação para o período de 1901 a 1999. Essa avaliação é realizada utilizando-se os dados do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e a reanálise 20th Century Reanalysis V2 do National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Quanto à sazonalidade propõe-se a criação de um índice de desempenho, baseado em medidas de correlação e erro quadrático médio, para a avaliação e classificação dos modelos. Quanto à variabilidade plurianual, é aplicada a transformada de ondeletas aos dados observados, e em seguida as rodadas dos modelos são avaliadas e classificadas baseadas em medidas de correlação espectral e distância euclidiana entre a variância nas bandas existentes na série observada. Logo, os modelos são classificados seguindo a avaliação geral, sendo para o Nordeste o modelo CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN2, para a região da bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 e para a região Amazônica o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN6 os que melhor representaram a precipitação no século XX. Para o cenário A1B é feito um análise de projeções sazonais e tendências plurianuais dos modelos melhor colocados na avaliação sazonal e geral de cada região. Quanto à projeção sazonal a análise consiste no cálculo das anomalias de precipitação em todos os modelos para os períodos 2010-2039, 2040-2069 e 2070-2099 em relação ao cenário de simulações 20C3M durante o período 1901-1999. Quanto à tendência plurianual para o período de 2010 a 2099, as precipitações anuais são padronizadas, com base nos parâmetros do cenário 20C3M. Logo é feita uma análise de tendências usando a média e mediana móvel de 10 anos, regressão linear, Mann Kendall Sen e Ondeletas. Na tendência por ondeletas o modelo MRI.CGCM2.3.2A.RUN3, não indica tendência o GISS.MODEL.E.R.RUN2 indica uma tendência de aumento a partir de 2030, o UKMO.HADCM3.RUN1 mostra uma tendência de redução até 2050 na região do Nordeste. Na bacia da Prata o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN2 indica tendência de aumento ao longo do século XXI, o CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1mostra aumento a partir de 2030 e o modelo NCAR.PCM1.RUN1 não mostra nenhuma tendência. Na Amazônia os modelos CSIRO.MK3.0.RUN1, CCCMA.CGCM3.1.RUN1, INGV.ECHAM4.RUN1 não indicam nenhuma tendência ao longo do século XXI.
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Miranda, Nicole. "Meta-analysis of GHG mitigation potentials of the application of anaerobic digestion in dairy farms." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d613759f-8f42-494e-8e95-e977a5fc41b4.
Full textAbstract:
Dairy farms can apply anaerobic digestion (AD) as a manure management system, while producing renewable energy. Ultimately, this can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is much research work that has quantified the changes in emissions due to AD. However, important methodologies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, rely only on a small sample of the accumulated scientific findings in the field. This thesis improves the robustness of these methodologies by applying data-driven techniques to estimate values of the energy output of AD systems and their consequent effect in GHG emissions. For this purpose, meta-analyses techniques are applied to mathematically combine metrics from 155 non-standardised research publications (i.e. with different boundaries, scopes and functional units). As a first step, a novel database is created by systematically searching for relevant articles and assessing them against defined criteria. The database is divided in two parts. Given that the offset of GHGs is highly dependent on the energy output of AD system, empirical methane yields (i.e. key metric of AD performance) are collected in Part I of the database. GHG released from different farm activities are input to Part II of the database. To quantify the change in emissions from these activities, standard baseline and AD scenarios are defined. The second step of the meta-analysis consists of applying uni- and multi-variate tests to the database. For Part I, methane yields are analysed in terms of type of digesters. From the batch digesters, new maximum methane yields are proposed based on the combined results of 42 peer reviewed articles. These results offer better estimates than default values of methane yields from the 2007 Guidelines of the IPCC, which only consider two studies. For continuously stirred tank digesters and semi-continuous digesters lower methane yields are revealed. Multi-variate analysis of methane yields together with operating conditions and manure composition, enable the identification of clusters. These groups of variables can be useful to build potential AD scenarios in dairy farms. For Part II of the database, relative changes in emissions between the activities in the standardised baseline and AD scenarios, are examined. It is found, through meta-analysis, that replacing raw manure by anaerobically-treated manure (i.e. digestate) in storage tanks and for field- application, mitigates baseline emissions by 38.7% and 6.9%, respectively. These relative changes can be used to estimate emissions from digestate, being more specific and evidence-based than the current methodology from the IPCC. In addition, relative changes found for offset of fossil fuels by biogas generated in the AD scenarios indicate a reduction of baseline emissions by 9.0%. Only methane leaks from digesters significantly increase the baseline emissions (by 7.4%). Finally, results found by meta-analyses of methane yields and changes in emissions are applied to four dairy farm case studies. The work presented in the case studies demonstrates the benefits of enhancing the robustness of methods to estimate the effect of AD on GHG emissions from dairy farms.
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Azevedo, Juliana Bruning. "Análise do ciclo biológico do Aedes aegypti(Diptera: Culicidae) exposto a cenários de mudanças climáticas previstas pelo IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)." Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, 2015. http://bdtd.inpa.gov.br/handle/tede/2201.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
The Aedes aegypti is considered the main vector of dengue virus, urban yellow fever and Chikungunya fever. Insects are susceptible to changes in environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. Responsible for regulating population size and aspects of mosquito biology, such as larval growth, development time, body size, longevity, fertility and blood supply. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2° to 4° C in average global temperature over the next century. These climatic changes may result in significant changes in landscapes and ecological patterns of infectious diseases, and interfere directly in the development and behavior of A. aegypti. This study evaluated different aspects of vector biology as amount amount of ingested blood, fertility, egg laying and hatching of eggs and longevity, climate change scenarios, planned for the year 2100, intermediate and extreme scenarios. Among the predicted variables to undergo changes due to climate change, the temperature is primarily responsible for changing the biology and vector behavior. Concentrations of CO2, even three times the current concentration does not significantly affect the results obtained in this study. The amount of blood ingested by females raised in higher temperature was higher compared to females who lived at lower temperatures, longevity is low at temperatures above 32° C, living approximately 40 days and no longevity difference between sex. The fertility is greatly affected by temperature, being reduced by half in higher temperatures. The oviposition is impaired in temperatures above 32° C, but this effect was not observed in the outbreak. Mathematical models project an increase in the number of dengue cases and geographic expansion in vector distribution. However, our data indicate that, in future scenarios of climate change, some aspects of the biology of A. aegypti will be affected. With the above information, it was possible to better understand the biology of the vector and taking also into account climate change, serving as a basis for other studies.
O Aedes aegyptié considerado o principal vetor do vírus da Dengue, Febre amarela urbana e da Febre Chikungunya. São insetos suscetíveis à variação de fatores ambientaiscomo, quantidade de chuva e temperatura. Responsáveis porregular o tamanho populacional e aspectos da biologia do mosquito, como o crescimento larval, tempo de desenvolvimento, tamanho corporal,longevidade, fecundidade e alimentação sanguínea. O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança do Clima (IPCC) prevê um aumento de 2° a 4° C na temperatura média global, durante o próximo século. Essas alterações climaticas poderão resultar em mudanças significativas nas paisagens e nos padrões ecológicos das doenças infecciosas, e interferir diretamente no desenvolvimento e comportamento do A. aegypti. Neste trabalho foram avaliados diferentes aspectos da biologia do vetor como, ingestão de sague, fecundidade, oviposição e eclosão de ovos e longevidade, sobre cenários de mudanças climáticas, previstas para o ano de 2100, cenários intermediários e extremos.Dentre as variáveis preditas para sofrem alterações devido a mudanças do clima, a temperatura é principal responsável por alterar a biologia e o comportamento do vetor. As concentrações de CO2, mesmo três vezes maior que a concentração atual, não influenciou significativamente os resultados obtidos neste estudo.A quantidade de sangue ingerida por fêmeas criadas em temperatura mais elevada foi maior quando comparadas com as fêmeas que viviam em temperaturas menores, a longevidade é menor em temperaturas superiores a 32°C, vivendo aproximadamente 40 dias e não houve diferença de longevidade entre os sexos. A fecundidade é extremamente afetada pela temperatura, sendo reduzida pela metade em temperaturas maiores. A oviposição é prejudicada em temperaturas superiores a 32°C, porém esse efeito não foi observado na eclosão.Modelos matemáticos projetam um aumento no número de casos de dengue, além de uma expansão geográfica na distribuição do vetor. No entanto, nossos dados indicam que, em cenários futuros de mudanças climáticas, alguns aspectos da biologia do A. aegypti serão afetados. Com as informações acima mencionadas, foi possível conhecer melhor a biologia do vetor e levando também em consideração as mudanças climáticas, servindo como base para outros estudos.
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Dubois, Alejandra. "Analyse des processus intersectoriels en tant que stratégie pouvant influencer les déterminants de la santé : étude de cas régionaux au Québec." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30250.
Full textAbstract:
Puisque les déterminants sociaux de la santé sont en dehors du secteur institutionnel conventionnel de la santé, la collaboration intersectorielle apparaît comme la stratégie de choix pour agir sur ces déterminants. Comme souligné par Jackson et coll. (2006), la collaboration intersectorielle et les partenariats interorganisationnels sont des actions transversales qui doivent se produire à des niveaux structurels, sociaux et personnels et qui doivent être imbriquées dans toutes les stratégies de promotion de la santé mises de l’avant par la Charte d’Ottawa. Mais que signifie la collaboration intersectorielle, comment est-elle vécue, et comment ces processus intersectoriels peuvent-ils être réussis?
L’objectif principal de ce projet de recherche était de contribuer à l’élaboration d’un cadre conceptuel de l’action intersectorielle, développé à partir de la littérature disponible et validé empiriquement par quatre études de cas, à l’intérieur d’une région du Québec (Chaudière-Appalaches). Ces quatre initiatives se sont déroulées entre 1997 et 2012 :
• Cas 1 : Programme de prévention de la détresse psychologique auprès des agriculteurs
• Cas 2 : Construction du parc de jeu destiné aux enfants de 0 à 5 ans
• Cas 3 : Programme de cuisines collectives à Beauce-Sartigan
• Cas 4 : Programme de prévention de l’alcool au volant
La première partie de la thèse se concentre sur la compréhension de termes reliés à l’intersectorialité en santé, en comparant les définitions théoriques (à partir d’une revue systématique de la littérature grise et scientifique) à la terminologie utilisée sur le terrain (à partir des études de cas). La deuxième partie de la thèse consiste en une analyse transversale des quatre études de cas qui ont été élaborées autour des sept dimensions suivantes : le problème, les objectifs de santé de populations, les autres objectifs, les résultats, les acteurs, les processus et le contexte. L’analyse transversale porte principalement sur les avantages, les conditions facilitantes et les défis de l’action intersectorielle en santé, incluant une discussion sur le rôle et la légitimité du secteur santé en tant qu’instigateur du partenariat intersectoriel.
Thesis Abstract
Since the social determinants of health lie outside the conventional institutional health sector, intersectoral collaboration appears to be the strategy of choice to act on these determinants. As Jackson et al. note (2006), intersectoral collaboration and inter-organizational partnerships are cross-cutting actions that must occur at structural, social and personal levels, and they should be embedded in all strategies for health promotion put forward by the Ottawa Charter. But what does intersectoral collaboration mean, how it is lived, and how can these intersectoral processes be successful?
The main objective of this research project is to contribute to the development of a conceptual framework for intersectoral action. That framework is developed from the literature and empirically validated by four case studies within a Quebec region (Chaudière-Appalaches). These four initiatives took place between 1997 and 2012:
• Case 1: Program for the prevention of psychological distress among farmers
• Case 2: Construction of a play park for children aged 0 to 5 years
• Case 3: Program of collective kitchens in Beauce-Sartigan
• Case 4: Program for the prevention of alcohol-impaired driving
The first part of the thesis focuses on understanding terms related to intersectoriality in health by comparing the theoretical definitions (from a systematic review of scientific and grey literature) to the terminology used in the field (captured by conducting case studies). The second part of the thesis is a cross-sectional analysis of four case studies developed around the following seven dimensions: the problem, the population health objectives, other objectives, the outcomes, the actors, the processes and the context. This cross-sectional analysis focuses on the benefits, facilitating conditions and challenges of intersectoral action in health, including a discussion of the role and legitimacy of the health sector as an instigator of intersectoral partnerships.
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Figueredo, Everthon Fernandes. "Nocaute do gene ipdC no Bacillus sp. (RZ2MS9) com a técnica de CRISPRCas9 e influência sobre a biossíntese do AIA dependente do L-triptofano." Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11138/tde-22012019-175701/.
Full textAbstract:
Dentre os mecanismos relacionados à interação bactéria-planta, a biossíntese bacteriana de ácido indol acético (AIA) exerce um papel fundamental na promoção do crescimento vegetal, uma vez que é capaz de influenciar inúmeros processos fisiológicos nas plantas. Diferentes vias metabólicas são utilizadas pelas bactérias para a biossíntese do AIA, sendo a via do ácido indol-3-pirúvico (IPyA) a mais comumente descrita. Nesta via encontra-se o gene indol-3-piruvato descarboxilase (ipdC) com vital função na produção de AIA utilizando como precursor o aminoácido L-triptofano. Nesse contexto, estudos moleculares acerca das vias metabólicas e dos genes envolvidos nesse processo são preponderantes para o entendimento da inter-relação das vias regulatórias com a síntese do fitormônio. A rizobactéria Bacillus sp. (RZ2MS9) vem apresentando satisfatória atividade na promoção de crescimento vegetal. O sequenciamento do seu genoma apontou a presença de uma vasta gama de genes relacionados à promoção do crescimento, com destaque para genes codificadores de auxinas. Assim, o estudo teve por objetivo comprovar a função do gene ipdC na biossíntese do AIA pela via dpendente do L-triptofano através do nocaute sítio dirigido do gene ipdC na Rizobactéria Promotora do Crescimento em Plantas (RPCP) Bacillus sp. (RZ2MS9). Para tanto, foi realizado o nocaute sítio dirigido por meio da técnica de CRISPR-Cas9. O nocaute do gene ipdC foi eficiente, gerando mutantes disruptivos para o referido gene. A biossíntese do AIA pela linhagem ΔipdC apresentou reduções nas concentrações do fitormônio, de acordo com o tempo de crescimento, sendo 87,96% em 24 horas, 88,25% em 48 horas e 58,27% em 72 horas do crescimento em comparação à linhagem selvagem (WT). Além disso, a biossíntese do AIA na ausência do aminoácido L-triptofano também foi avaliada, não sendo constatada síntese do fitormônio em nenhum dos tempos crescimento, tanto na linhagem selvagem, quanto na linhagem ΔipdC. O presente estudo foi pioneiro no nocaute do gene ipdC em uma linhagem de Bacillus utilizando a técnica de CRISPR-Cas9. Os resultados obtidos contribuem para um melhor entendimento da influência do gene ipdC e da via IPyA na biossíntese do AIA pela linhagem RZ2MS9 e futuramente sera comprovado seu papel na promoção de crescimento vegetal.Among the mechanisms related to the bacterium-plant interaction, the bacterial biosynthesis of indole acetic acid (AIA) plays a fundamental role in the promotion of plant growth, since it is capable of influencing innumerable physiological processes in plants. Different metabolic pathways are used by bacteria for the biosynthesis of IAA, with the indole-3-pyruvic acid (IPyA) pathway being the most commonly described. In this pathway, the indole-3-pyruvate decarboxylase (ipdC) gene has a vital role in the production of IAA using the amino acid L-tryptophan as a precursor. In this context, molecular studies about the metabolic pathways and the genes involved in this process are preponderant for the understanding of the interrelationship of the regulatory pathways with the phytormonium synthesis. The rhizobacterium Bacillus sp. (RZ2MS9) has been showing satisfactory activity in promoting plant growth. The sequencing of its genome pointed to the presence of a wide range of genes related to growth promotion, especially genes encoding auxins. Thus, the objective of the present study was to verify the function of the ipdC gene in the IAA biosynthesis L-tryptophan dependent through the knockout of the ipdC in the plant growth-promoting rhizobateria (PGPR) Bacillus sp. (RZ2MS9). Therefore, the knockout was realized using the CRISPR-Cas9. The knockout of the ipdC gene was efficient, generating disruptive mutants for the said gene. IAA biosynthesis by the ΔipdC strain showed reductions in phytormonium concentrations, according to the growth time, being 87.96% in 24 hours, 88.25% in 48 hours and 58.27% in 72 hours of growth compared to the Wild Type (WT). In addition, the biosynthesis of IAA in the absence of the amino acid L-tryptophan was also evaluated, with no phytormonium synthesis being observed at any growth time, both in the wild type and ΔipdC strain. The present study pioneered the knockout of the ipdC gene in a Bacillus strain using the CRISPR-Cas9. The results obtained contribute to a better understanding of the influence of the ipdC gene and the IPyA pathway in the IAA biosynthesis through the RZ2MS9 strain, and its role in plant growth promoting will be demonstrated in the future.
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Larsson, Emma. "Science and Policy in the International Framing och the Climate Change Issue." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Thematic Studies, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-2527.
Full textAbstract:
The IPCCand the FCCC are both central institutions in the international handling of the climate change issue. How these institutions frame and define the climate change issue is decisive for the action taken in response. The aim of this thesis was to analyze and describe how the climate change problem is framed and defined within the FCCC and the IPCC. Furthermore, the aim was also to examine if there are any differences between the IPCC’s and the FCCC’s framings and definitions of the climate change problem, and if so, what those differences consist of. The analysis was based on a line of documents from the IPCC and the FCCC, which were analyzed through a qualitative textual analysis.
The results of the analysis indicate that there are both similarities and dissimilarities between the institutions. The definitions of the term climate change differ in the sense that the FCCC only regards human-induced changes in climate, as climate change. The IPCC, on the other hand, includes both natural variability and human-induced changes in its definition of climate change. In the practical usage the definitions are similar, and the results indicate that the IPCC in practice has adopted the FCCC’s definition and only focuses on anthropogenic climate change. The climate change issue is by both of the institutions perceived as a greenhouse gas question, and the consequences are described as very extensive and serious. The FCCC gives advantages to mitigative responses in relation to adaptive, and also the IPCC describes mitigative responses as advantageous. Finally, the study indicates that there is a linking between the scientific and political spheres, which is extended by the fact that the FCCC’s definition of climate change creates a demand for scientific input in the decision-making process. The science and policy relationship builds upon mutual expectations of what the respective spheres can contribute with in terms of useful knowledge and policy-relevant questions.
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Dübeck, Helena. "What does one drop of oil really cost? : A study of climate change, social movements and global politics with a didactic perspective." Thesis, Karlstad University, Faculty of Social and Life Sciences, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-5116.
Full textAbstract:
This essay aims to research the climate change issue and the relationship social movements, scientist and policymakers have to climate change. Furthermore, this essay has a didactic perspective and aim to illuminate how the climate change issue can be used within the school subject social studies. The policy decided upon by the world leaders during the climate summit in Copenhagen, Cop15, will stand further from the scientific view of climate change in relation to sustainable development than what the social movements’ demands are. To find the relationship a case study have been made, where an observation at the alternative forum Klimaforum09 was made to establish what relationship social movements have with policymakers and scientists. A close reading of the IPCC Synthesis Report (AR4) was made to see the scientific view on climate change and the relationship to policymakers and social movements. The relationship policymakers have with science and social movements have not been researched, since the Cop15 did not result in a global deal. Despite that there was no deal the thesis have been investigated, and the result is that social movements have a close, but critical relationship towards both world leaders and politicians, and to the scientific view of climate change. It is also suggested that science have a relationship to social movements. The thesis cannot be refuted or confirmed.
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Santos, Thalyta Soares dos. "C?lculo das incertezas clim?ticas sobre Am?rica do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferi??o atrav?s das redes neurais artificiais." Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2015. http://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/20763.
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Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES)
Neste trabalho objetivamos analisar as incertezas envolvidas nas proje??es de mudan?as clim?ticas na Am?rica do Sul (AS) simuladas por in?meros modelos num?ricos de circula??o geral acoplado oceano-atmosfera (MCGOA) da Quinta Fase do Projeto do Modelo Intercompara??o Acoplado (CMIP5) para a Am?rica do Sul. As incertezas nas proje??es das mudan?as clim?ticas futuras surgem a partir de fontes diferentes e s?o introduzidos na sequ?ncia de passos no processo de modela??o, produzindo assim uma cascata de incertezas (Knutti et al. de 2010;. Giorgi 2005). Essas incertezas projetadas pelos modelos clim?ticos ser?o calculadas atrav?s do m?todo Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) desenvolvido por Giogi e Mearns (2002) que ? utilizado para calcular o intervalo de incerteza e uma medida de confiabilidade das mudan?as clim?ticas simuladas por um conjunto de diferentes modelos de circula??o geral da atmosfera. O m?todo leva em conta dois crit?rios de confiabilidade; i) o desempenho do modelo em reproduzir o clima atual e, ii) converg?ncia das mudan?as simuladas entre os modelos. O REA ser? aplicado para os s?culos XX e XXI em diferentes cen?rios do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ou Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudan?as Clim?ticas). Em uma segunda fase, ser? aplicado tamb?m Redes Neurais Artificias (RNA) juntamente com o c?lculo das incertezas, para avaliarmos se uso das RNA ser?o uma boa ferramenta para diminuir as incertezas geradas pelos modelos, melhorando assim a precis?o dos mesmos. Assim sendo, com o estudo proposto espera-se avaliar e quantificar detalhadamente os intervalos de incerteza nas mudan?as clim?ticas apresentadas no CMIP5 para a AS, com e sem a utiliza??o de RNA, relacionadas ao uso de diferentes modelos num?ricos e futuras emiss?es de gases de efeito estufa. Avaliando os n?veis de incerteza, disponibilizaremos uma ferramenta muito ?til para os estudos de impacto, adapta??o e vulnerabilidade. Os resultados preliminares deste estudo mostraram que a varia??o REA para a precipita??o ? um pouco menor sobre a Am?rica Sul em compara??o com a m?dia simples conjunto de modelos. A confiabilidade do conjunto de modelos foi satisfat?ria para toda a Am?rica do Sul, indicando boa simula??o dos modelos nessa regi?o.
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Gonçalves, Daniel Ruiz Potma. "Soil carbon balance in long-term no-till in a sub-tropical environment." Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, 2018. http://tede2.uepg.br/jspui/handle/prefix/2525.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Solos podem ser uma fonte ou um dreno de CO2 atmosférico, dependendo do seu sistema de manejo. Atualmente, o uso do solo e mudança de uso do solo emitem 1,3 ± 0,5 Pg C ano-1, equivalente a 8% das emissões globais. Técnicas como a agricultura de baixa emissão de C têm sido desenvolvidas para sequestrar C nos solos e reduzir a emissão de gases do efeito estufa. Porém, além dos desafios políticos e sociais envolvendo a doção destes sistemas, ainda há muita incerteza sobre o seu real potencial de mitigação. Assim, os objetivos desse estudo foram: i) Quantificar as fontes históricas e atuais de emissão de gases do efeito estufa na região dos Campos Gerais do Paraná, Brasil; ii) quantificar o potencial das melhores práticas de manejo agrícola baseadas nos três pilares da agricultura de conservação: Solo permanentemente coberto, plantio direto e rotação de culturas, em longo prazo (30 anos) para sequestrar carbono no solo, utilizando a fazenda Paiquerê (localizada na região dos Campos Gerais) como um modelo de sucesso; iii) estimar o impacto da adoção das melhores práticas de manejo nas áreas agrícolas da região e globalmente onde adequadas pelos próximos 100 anos utilizando os modelos Century e Roth-C. As fontes de gases do efeito estufa foram apresentadas como um inventário e mostraram que as emissões históricas (1930 – 2017) foram 412,18 Tg C, no qual as mudanças de uso do solo contribuíram com 91% (376,2±130 Tg C). As florestas sequestraram 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C em 0.6 Mha em 47 anos (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1) e o plantio direto sequestrou 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C em 1.9 Mha em 32 anos (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 ano-1). Ambos os modelos tiveram uma boa performance e o modelo Century foi mais eficiente em simular os estoques de carbono do solo, o resíduo médio da simulação foi 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) para n = 91. O resíduo do modelo aumentou com a quantidade de óxidos no solo, sugerindo que a inclusão do controle mineralógico pode reduzir o viés de simulação. As predições do Century mostraram que o sistema tem potencial para mitigar 13 anos de emissões regionais (330 Tg C em 100 anos) ou 105 anos de emissões do setor agricultura, floresta e pecuária (40 Tg em 100 anos) na região. Da mesma forma, globalmente o sistema apresenta um potencial para sequestrar 2,5 ± 0.02 Pg C na profundidade 0–20 cm e 11,7 ± 3 Pg C na profundidade 0-100 cm em 86 milhões de ha distribuídos por todo o mundo. Este valor é equivalente à 11% das emissões globais dos setores agricultura, floresta e pecuária e mudanças de uso do solo. Assim, a nossa metodologia possa ser utilizada como um modelo para divulgar o potencial da agricultura conservacionista em sequestrar C nos solos e suportar políticas públicas que visem à mitigação das emissões de gases do efeito estufa.
Soils can be a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, according to land use and management. Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year-1, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emission. Techniques such as low carbon agriculture, has been developed to sequester C in soils and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, besides political and social challenges for the system adoption, there’s still great uncertainty related to its real mitigation potential. This study aimed: i) Quantify the historical and current main sources of GHG emissions for Campos Gerais region in Paraná state, Brazil; ii) quantify the potential of long term (30 years) agricultural best management practices, based on the three pillars of conservative agriculture: permanent soil cover, crop rotation and no-till, to sequester C in soils, using Paiquerê farm (located in Campos Gerais region) as a successful model; iii) estimate the impact of best management practices adoption in the region croplands and globally for the next 100 years where is suitable using Century and Roth-C models. The GHG emission sources were presented as an inventory and showed that historical (1930 – 2017) GHG emissions in the region was 412.18 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376.2±130 Tg C). Forestry sequestered 51.7 ± 23.9 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha-1 year-1) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 23.9 Tg C in 1.9 Mha in 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha-1 year-1). Both models performed well, and Century was more efficient for simulate the SOC stocks, the mean residue was 10 Mg C ha−1 (13%) for n = 91. The model residue increased along with the oxides content in the soil clay fraction, suggesting that mineralogical control inclusion can reduce the model simulation bias. Century predictions showed that the system currently practiced at Paiquerê farm have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional total emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector emissions (40 Tg in 100 years) in the region. In the same way, it has the potential to sequester 2.5±0.02 Pg C at 0-20 cm and 11.7±3 Pg C at 0-100 cm soil depth in 86 million ha globally. This is equivalent to 11% of global annual emissions from LULUC sector. In this way, our methodology can be used as a model to access the potential of conservation agriculture to sequester C and support public policies aiming to mitigate GHG emissions.
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Bylund, Martin. "Syndaren: Människan : En kritisk diskursanalys av klimatfrågans gestaltning i svensk dagspress." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för medier och journalistik (MJ), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45933.
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The aim of this study is to examine the framing of the issue of climate change in two swedish daily newspapers . 55 texts, 36 of which are from the morning newspaper Dagens Nyheter and 19 from the tabloid Aftonbladet go through a critical discourse analysis in terms of how they portray climate change itself, the actors involved, blame and responsibility for causing and alleviating the problem, possible solutions, system criticism as well as which ideologies and power relationships are supported by existing narratives. Louw's understanding of mass media as hype, Fairclough's perspectives on discourse, Strömbäck's perspectives on agenda setting and Palm's study of the factors behind news production have been central to the theoretical approach of the study, as have Machin and Mayr's work on critical discourse analysis. The results show that there are two main recurring discourses in the analysed material. One describes climate change as a threat. This narrative describes a struggle between civilisation and nature and places blame on all humans in a manner that closely relates to the christian concept of original sin. It is a discourse that emphasizes the following of rules and strict moral codes, naming those who do not follow the Swedish example as cheaters or villains while excluding non-civilized humans. The other, economic, discourse frames the problem of climate change as one of costs and incentives. The climate is given a monetary value, suggesting everything involved is as exchangeable as money. No alternative discourse challenges the two discourses, which interact and reinforce eachother, both legitimizing human domination of nature as well as current power relations in society.
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Vice, President Research Office of the. "Cover and Contents." Office of the Vice President Research, The University of British Columbia, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/9511.
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Westerberg, Anna, and Emma Mörlin. "Analysis of trends in policies and pathways for climate neutrality within the steel industry : A case study of powder metal company Höganäs AB." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-299519.
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To be in line with the Paris Agreement and mitigate average temperature rise to 1.5°C, and to a maximum of 2°C, greenhouse gas emissions will have to be reduced close to zero before mid-century. If these targets are to be reached, rapid and complete decarbonisation of every sector within the global economy is required. Currently, energy-intensive industrial sectors account for more than 30% of global energy use, and are responsible for approximately 50 % of global greenhouse gas emissions, whereas the iron and steel industries have the largest aggregated greenhouse gas emissions globally. Although the steel industry is at the cusp of major climate neutrality transitions, as recent studies have presented opportunities of producing completely fossil-free steel, decarbonising large-scale production processes is a complex query affected by a multitude of internal and external factors. Höganäs AB, as one of the largest powder metal manufacturers in Sweden, has initiated their work towards net-zero emissions in 2045. With production sites in over 18 countries, the company serves as an example of a company in the midst of turning a “hard-to-abate” industry towards being sustainable. The aim of this study is thus to assess the effects of climate agendas and frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement and the IPCC Report on initiatives and policies on a global, national and regional level within countries where Höganäs AB has its major production facilities. The aim is further to review the effects of climate strategies and targets on the steel and powder metal industry, as well as to monitor the industry’s inclinations towards climate neutrality. The findings of the performed literature study, as well as the conducted qualitative interviews, resulted in a framework regarding how to identify and assess trends within the steel and powder metal industry based on two theoretical perspectives on corporate climate transitions. Through the results, it could be concluded that despite all countries having ratified the Paris Agreement as of January 2021, no country is currently on the path towards reaching the 1.5°C target that is recommended by the IPCC Report and the Paris Agreement. Still, there is a growing demand for low-carbon technology and renewable energy in every country, something that will partly weigh up for both up-scaled industrial production and countries’ increased GDP. Within the industry, an increased number of initiatives and commitments has been launched during the past few years, indicating that questions of climate change and sustainability are being entrenched in the corporate sector. Going forward, indicators to measure continuous improvements to reach net-zero are associated with emission- and energy data, value chain management and industry investments. As technological advancements towards hydrogen, electrification and digitalisation are being upscaled and increasingly tangible, climate neutrality in the PM and steel industry is achievable through a profound and intended climate focus and an increased sense of urgency.
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Filho, Carlos Eduardo Gomes Cassaú. "Potencial de geração de metano em aterros sanitários através dos modelos IPCC, USEPA e Scholl Canyon estudo de caso do aterro sanitário de Moskogen, Kalmar, Suécia." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2012. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8169.
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A utilização do metano (CH4) presente no biogás gerado através da degradação anaeróbica de resíduos orgânicos depositados em aterros sanitários como fonte de energia é uma tecnologia em expansão, principalmente nos países em desenvolvimento. Para assegurar um melhor aproveitamento do CH4 e a viabilidade econômica do projeto de exploração energética é necessário que estes empreendimentos avaliem sua capacidade de produzir este gás com o passar dos anos, mesmo após o encerramento da deposição de resíduos. O potencial de geração é comumente estimado a partir de modelos cinéticos de primeira ordem propostos por conceituadas instituições, entretanto, estudos recentes apontam alto grau de incerteza e diferenças relevantes entre os resultados obtidos com cada metodologia. Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a variação dos resultados das estimativas de emissão de metano dos modelos recomendados pela USEPA, Banco Mundial (Scholl Canyon) e IPCC utilizando tanto dados e informações disponibilizadas do aterro sanitário Moskogen, localizado em Kalmar, Suécia, que foi operado entre 1977 e 2008. Além de estimar a capacidade de geração de CH4, objetiva-se identificar qual o modelo cujas estimativas mais se aproximam dos dados de biogás efetivamente medidos e quanto gás ainda pode ser extraído do aterro. O estudo ainda avaliou como valores diferentes para os parâmetros principais dos modelos afetam a estimativa de geração final. O modelo IPCC mostrou-se o mais confiável dentre os analisados, estimando que o aterro Moskogen produza mais de 102 milhões de m de CH4 entre 1977 e 2100, sendo 39,384 milhões passíveis de extração de 2012 a 2100. Os demais modelos apresentaram premissas inadequadas com a realidade do aterro sanitário estudado. Contudo, mesmo com a superioridade do modelo proposto pelo IPCC, maiores estudos são necessários no local, que levantem outras informações de campo como a vazão passiva de gás pela camada de cobertura do aterro e uma melhor estimativa do percentual de material orgânico biodegradável presente em cada fração de resíduos depositada em Moskogen.The use of methane (CH4) present in the biogas generated by the anaerobic degradation of organic wastes in landfills as an energy source is an expanding technology, especially in developing countries. To ensure a proper utilization of CH4 and the economic feasibility of the energy recovery project it is necessary that these landfills evaluate their capability to produce this gas over the years, even after the end of waste disposal. The generation potential is commonly estimated from first-order kinetic models proposed by reputable institutions, however, recent studies indicate a high level of uncertainty and significant differences between the results obtained with each method. This study aims to analyze the variation of the results of methane generation estimatives, from the models recommended by the USEPA, the World Bank (Scholl Canyon Model) and the IPCC using field data and information provided by Moskogen landfill, located in Kalmar, Sweden, which was operated from 1977 to 2008. In addition to estimating the CH4 generation potential, the objective is to identity which model whose results are closer to the data of the amount of biogas effectively measured and to discover how much gas still can be extracted from the landfill. The study also evaluated how different values to the model main parameters affect the final generation estimative. The IPCC model proved to be the most reliable among the others analyzed, estimating that Moskogen will produce over 102 million m of CH4 between 1977 and 2100, which 39.384 can be extracted from 2012 to 2100. The other models presented inadequate assumptions in comparison to the reality of the studied landfill. Nevertheless, despite the fact that the model proposed by the IPCC has been judged as the most faithful, larger studies are needed on the area, in order to identify more field data, such as the occurrence of passive gas flow through the top covering layers of the landfill and a better estimative of the amount of degradable organic compounds in each fraction of waste disposed in Moskogen.
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Rothballer, Michael. "In situ Lokalisierung, PGPR-Effekt und Regulation des ipdC-Gens der Azospirillum brasilense Stämme Sp7 und Sp245 bei verschiedenen Weizensorten, sowie endophytische Kolonisierung durch Herbaspirillum sp. N3." Diss., lmu, 2004. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-17956.
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Guimarães, Amanda. "Global Warming, Health and the Animal Industry. A Critical Discourse Analysis of Advertisements from the Animal Industry in EU after the Reports by WHO, FAO and IPCC." Thesis, Malmö högskola, Fakulteten för kultur och samhälle (KS), 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-23153.
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IPCC, WHO and FAO have recently published reports connecting the animal industry with Global warming, cancer and 70% of modern diseases. In fact, IPCC (2014) indicated that the greatest potential for reducing emissions is placed on the consumer’s level. For this context, grounded in concepts of the Foucauldian Discourse Analysis and the Compositional Analysis (Rose, 2001) this study analyzed a series of advertisements issued in the period after the reports (2013-2015). The analysis was guided by three central questions: (1) Which linguistic and visual approaches, as well as their organization and strategies applied in the discourse, is the Animal Industry using in the construction of their advertisements and how they react to this moment of crises? (2) Considering Barthes ́ approach of food as symbols containing a communicational construction, what are the meanings built around animal products understood from the perspective of discourse? (3) How is the Animal Industry positioning themselves towards audiences and culture and what functions are they giving to themselves in society? Following a political theoretical framework, the proposition that the animal commodification is an ideology affirmed in western societies will be discussed. Advertisements from seven enterprises of the Animal Industry in EU will be used, selected for having leading positions in their sectors (meat and dairy). Among the results, it was verified that the relation toward human interaction is the major enunciator in the advertisements. The following lines of enunciation were identified: example and empathy; imperative discourses; tradition. The enunciations of meat have emotional basis; while the constructions around dairy focuses on the western representation of archaic nature (Haraway, 1989). The denotative qualities of the foods where very little considered. The political and ethical questions around the animal products were absent. This study focuses on the necessity of a political and critical approach of the marketing strategies of the Animal Industry. KEY WORDS: Animal Industry, Global Warming, Discourse Analysis, Foucault
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Kuchler, Magdalena. "Fields of Gold : The Bioenergy Debate in International Organizations." Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Tema vatten i natur och samhälle, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-80858.
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The concept of producing energy from biomass has, for the last two decades, occupied attention of policy-makers, private industries, researchers and civil societies around the world. The highly contested and contingent character of the biofuel production, its entanglement in the nexus of three problematic issues of energy, climate and agriculture, as well as its injection into the current socioeconomic arrangements, is what makes it timely to analyse. The thesis sheds light on the state of international debate on bioenergy by looking at deliberations of three major global institutions: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Energy Agency (IEA) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The primary aim is to trace and analyse how the concept of bioenergy is conceptualized and contextualized in assessments, reports, policy papers and other documents issued by FAO, IEA and IPCC in the 1990-2010 period. The secondary aim of the thesis, based on results derived from the primary objective, is set to problematize and reflect upon currently dominating socioeconomic arrangements that the concept of biomass-derived energy is inserted into. The research questions are organized around four distinctively contentious issues in the debate: biofuel production in developing countries, the food vs. fuel dilemma, bioenergy as a win-win-win solution and the future role of the second-generation bioenergy technology. The research questions are operationalized by applying four theoretical perspectives: the world-economy, Michel Foucault’s genealogy, discourse theory of Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe, and Fredric Jameson’s critical approach. The institutional debate illustrates that, while bioenergy appears to be an easy, plausible and thus attractive patch able to temporarily fix societal challenges of energy insecurity, climate change and agricultural crisis without changing much in the socioeconomic structure, its implementation exposes internal discrepancies of the hegemonic capitalist system. Whether bioenergy could actually function as a feasible win-win-win solution is of secondary importance. It is its economic feasibility expressed in the pressure on cost-effectiveness that matters the most but, at the same time, causes serious internal discrepancies in conceptualizations pursued by the organizations. The results point to two main conclusions. On the one hand, bioenergy is inevitably entrapped by the rules and arrangements of the hegemonic system that, in turn, cause internal contradictions. On the other hand, the institutional debate attempts to stabilize the shaky conceptualization of bioenergy, so that it can appear consistent and plausible, even if the possibility of reaching the closure of meaning fades away, with more conflicts on the rise. Furthermore, the results also show that the three international organizations exhibit uniform patterns of argumentations and the way they similarly discuss biomass-derived energy illustrates the objective to stabilize the meaning and adjust the concept of bioenergy to the hegemonic system.Under de senaste två decennierna har idén om att producera energi av biomassa rönt stor uppmärksamhet bland forskare, företagare, beslutsfattare och i samhället i övrigt. De förhållandevis många kontroverser och alternativ som är förbundna med produktion av biobränslen, deras koppling till de tre problemområdena energi, klimat och jordbruk, samt deras etablering inom samtida geopolitiska, socioekonomiska och miljömässiga sammanhang, gör dem till en aktuell fråga att analysera. Avhandlingen belyser den internationella debatten genom att fokusera överväganden och ståndpunkter inom tre globala institutioner: FN:s mat- och jordbruksorgan (FAO), Internationella Energiorganet (IEA) och FN:s klimatpanel (IPCC). Huvudsyftet är spåra och analysera hur begreppet bioenergi formas och kontextualiseras i bedömningsrapporter och policydokument producerade av FAO, IEA och IPCC under perioden 1990-2010. Ett ytterligare syfte är att problematisera och reflektera över de socioekonomiska förhållanden som bioenergibegreppet ingår i. Forskningsfrågorna är formulerade utifrån fyra kontroversiella områden i debatten: biobränsleproduktion i utvecklingsländer, dilemmat mat kontra biobränsle, bioenergi som en ”win-win-win-lösning” och den framtida roll som tillskrivs andra generationens bioteknologi. Forskningsfrågorna operationaliseras genom att var och en knyts till ett av fyra teoretiska perspektiv: världssystemteori, Michel Foucaults genealogi, Ernesto Laclaus och Chantal Mouffes diskursteori respektive Fredric Jamesons kritiska ansats. I debatten framställs ofta bioenergi som ett enkelt och rimligt alternativ med kapacitet att tillfälligt lösa samhälleliga utmaningar som energi-osäkerhet, klimatförändringar och jordbrukskrisen, dock utan att den socioekonomiska strukturen ändras nämnvärt. Analysen visar emellertid att begreppsliggörandet istället påvisar interna diskrepanser i det hegemoniska, kapitalistiska systemet. Huruvida bioenergi verkligen kan fungera som en sådan ”win-win-win”- lösning framstår som sekundärt i dessa texter. Det är kostnadseffektiviteten som har störst betydelse, men samtidigt skapar man här allvarliga begreppsliga diskrepanser inom organisationerna. Utfallet av analysen pekar på två huvudslutsatser. Å ena sidan är bioenergin oundvikligen låst av det hegemoniska systemets struktur och de motsägelser som det rymmer. Å andra sidan tycks debatten inom organisationerna söka efter en stabilisering av det instabila begreppsliggörandet av bioenergin så att den framstår som konsistent och möjlig. Vidare visar analysen också att de tre organisationerna har liknande argumentationsmönster, och det likartade sätt på vilket de diskuterar energi från biomassa illustrerar en stabilisering av mening inom diskursen där bioenergibegreppet anpassas till det hegemoniska systemet.
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Dawson, Thomas. "Red Lines & Hockey Sticks : A discourse analysis of the IPCC’s visual cultureand climate science (mis)communication." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för ABM, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-445887.
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Within the climate science research community there exists an overwhelming consensus on the question of climate change. The scientific literature supports the broad conclusion that the Earth’s climate is changing, that this change is driven by human factors (anthropogenic), and that the environmental consequences could be severe. While a strong consensus exists in the climate science community, this is not reflected in the wider public or among policymakers, where sceptical attitudes towards anthropogenic climate change is much more prevalent. This discrepancy in the perception of the urgency of the problem of climate change is an alarming trend and likely a result of a failure of science communication, which is the topic of this thesis. This paper analyses the visual culture of climate change, with specific focus on the data visualisations comprised within the IPCC assessment reports. The visual aspects of the reports were chosen because of the prioritisation images often receive within scientific communication and for their quality as immutable mobiles that can transition between different media more easily than text. The IPCC is the central institutional authority in the climate science visual discourse, and its assessment reports, therefore, are the site of this discourse analysis. The analysis tracks the development and variations in the IPCC’s visual culture, investigates in detail the use of colour and the visual form of the “Hockey Stick” graph. This work is undertaken to better understand the state of the art of climate science data visualisation, in an effort to suggest the best way forward to bridge the knowledge gap between the scientific community and the public on this important issue. The thesis concludes that a greater emphasis on the information aesthetics of their data visualisations could benefit the IPCC’s pedagogical reach, but that it may also be argued that it is not the IPCC’s role in climate change discourse to produce the most visually persuasive images. That they exist as a tone-setting institution that provides authority to entities that are better geared towards wider communication, such as journalism and activism.
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Fernandes, Wescley de Sousa. "AvaliaÃÃo do Impacto das MudanÃas ClimÃticas na Oferta HÃdrica da Bacia HidrogrÃfica do ReservatÃrio Ãros usando os Modelos de MudanÃas ClimÃticas do IPCC-AR4, levando em ConsideraÃÃo as Diversas Incertezas Associadas." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2012. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8377.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgicoNo presente trabalho as projeÃÃes de vazÃes para a bacia do Ãros (CearÃ) foram obtidas usando as precipitaÃÃes dos modelos globais do quarto relatÃrio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2099 do cenÃrio A1B. As vazÃes foram geradas pelo modelo hidrolÃgico Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). Para a obtenÃÃo destas, as precipitaÃÃes foram corrigidas estatisticamente a partir dos dados observados, considerando as sÃries distribuiÃÃes do tipo gama. Quanto à evaporaÃÃo de entrada do modelo chuva-vazÃo foram feitas duas consideraÃÃes, a primeira consideraÃÃo utiliza vazÃes obtidas pelo modelo hidrolÃgico SMAP inicializado com evaporaÃÃo fornecidas pelo INMET e a segunda considera que a inicializaÃÃo foi feita por evaporaÃÃes estimadas pelo mÃtodo de Penann Mothieth. Para a anÃlise das variaÃÃes interanuais foram observadas as caracterÃsticas de tendÃncias das sÃries (usando mÃtodo clÃssico de Mann-Kendall-Sen) nos padrÃes de variaÃÃo (anÃlise da mÃdia e do coeficiente de variaÃÃo da sÃrie) e a anÃlise de extremos (comparaÃÃo das curvas de distribuiÃÃo acumulada do sÃculo XX e XXI). Para anÃlise sazonal considerou-se a anomalia na climatologia mÃdia dos modelos do sÃculo XXI em relaÃÃo ao sÃculo XX. Para a anÃlise interanual foi observado que a inicializaÃÃo do modelo hidrolÃgico SMAP com evaporaÃÃes estimadas pelo mÃtodo de Penann Motheith modificado pode surgir como implementaÃÃo para o teste de hipÃtese de Mann Kendall Sen. O calculo do coeficiente de variaÃÃo demonstrou que apesar da pouca divergÃncia quanto a ocorrÃncia de variabilidade, tratando-se de sÃries de vazÃes obtidas pelo SMAP inicializado com evaporaÃÃes estimadas, as rodadas dos modelos MIROC3_2_MEDRES relatou aumentos de variabilidade para o sÃculo XXI em relaÃÃo ao sÃculo XX. Quando a inicializaÃÃo no SMAP ocorre por meio de evaporaÃÃes fornecidas pelo INMET ocorre uma grande diversificaÃÃo nos valores de variabilidade. Ainda na anÃlise interanual, a curva de funÃÃo de distribuiÃÃo acumulada (CDF) demonstrou que dos 8 modelos analisados (modelos inicializados com evaporaÃÃes estimadas pelo mÃtodo de Penann-Motheith modificado) 3 apresentam maior freqÃÃncia de eventos secos, 3 apresentam uma freqÃÃncia de eventos mais Ãmidos e 2 modelos nÃo apresentando anÃlises significativas aproximando-se da curva gerada pela sÃrie de vazÃo observada. Quanto à anÃlise sazonal das vazÃes à observado que quando se utiliza o mÃtodo de Penann Motheith modificado para evaporaÃÃo (na inicializaÃÃo do SMAP) os valores de vazÃes tornam-se menores do que os valores obtidos por sÃries geradas pelo modelo hidrolÃgico inicializado com evaporaÃÃes fornecidas pelo INMET, relacionando o sÃculo XXI com o sÃculo XX.
In the present work flow projections for the basin Ãros (CearÃ) were obtained using the precipitation of global models of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) for the period 2010 to 2099 the A1B scenario. The flows were generated by the hydrologic model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). To obtain these, the precipitations were statistically corrected from the observed data, considering the distributions of the type series range. The evaporation model input rainfall-runoff were two considerations, the first consideration obtained by using flow hydrologic model initialized with SMAP evaporation provided by INMET and considers that the second boot occur by evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Mothieth. For the analysis of interannual variations were observed the characteristics of trends of the series (using the classical method of Mann-Kendall-Sen), the changing patterns of variation (analysis of the mean and coefficient of variation of the series) and the analysis of extremes (compared cumulative distribution curves of the twentieth century and XXI). For seasonal analysis considered the climate anomaly in the middle of the XXI century models over the twentieth century. For analysis it was observed that interannual hydrologic model initialization SMAP with evaporation estimated by the modified Penann Motheith can arise as an implementation for the hypothesis test of Mann Kendall Sen. The calculation of the coefficient of variation showed that despite the short confrontation over the occurrence of variability, in the case of streamflow series obtained by SMAP initialized with estimated evaporation, the rounds of the models MIROC3_2_MEDRES reported increases in variability for the XXI century in relation to the twentieth century. When booting into SMAP occurs through evaporation provided by INMET is a great diversification in the values of variability. Although the interannual analysis, the curve of cumulative distribution function (CDF) showed that eight of the analyzed models (models initialized with evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Motheith-modified) 3 have a higher frequency of dry events, have a third event frequency wet and two models showing no meaningful analyzes approaching the curve generated by the series of observed flows. As for seasonal analysis of the flow is observed that when using the method of Penann Motheith modified to evaporation (initialization SMAP) values of flow rates become smaller than the values obtained by series generated by the hydrologic model initialized with evaporation provided by INMET , relating the new century, the twentieth century.
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Fernandes, Wescley de Sousa. "Avaliação do impacto das mudanças climáticas na oferta hídrica da bacia hidrográfica do reservatório Óros usando os modelos de mudanças climáticas do IPCC-AR4, levando em consideração as diversas incertezas associadas." reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFC, 2012. http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/3962.
Full textAbstract:
FERNANDES, W. S. Avaliação do impacto das mudanças climáticas na oferta hídrica da bacia hidrográfica do reservatório Óros usando os modelos de mudanças climáticas do IPCC-AR4, levando em consideração as diversas incertezas associadas. 2012. 128 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Cívil: Recursos Hídricos) - Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2012.Submitted by Marlene Sousa (mmarlene@ufc.br) on 2012-10-18T18:17:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_dis_wsfernandes.pdf: 2362523 bytes, checksum: c6a0553649a586fa8e343bb85792677b (MD5)
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In the present work flow projections for the basin Óros (Ceará) were obtained using the precipitation of global models of the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) for the period 2010 to 2099 the A1B scenario. The flows were generated by the hydrologic model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). To obtain these, the precipitations were statistically corrected from the observed data, considering the distributions of the type series range. The evaporation model input rainfall-runoff were two considerations, the first consideration obtained by using flow hydrologic model initialized with SMAP evaporation provided by INMET and considers that the second boot occur by evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Mothieth. For the analysis of interannual variations were observed the characteristics of trends of the series (using the classical method of Mann-Kendall-Sen), the changing patterns of variation (analysis of the mean and coefficient of variation of the series) and the analysis of extremes (compared cumulative distribution curves of the twentieth century and XXI). For seasonal analysis considered the climate anomaly in the middle of the XXI century models over the twentieth century. For analysis it was observed that interannual hydrologic model initialization SMAP with evaporation estimated by the modified Penann Motheith can arise as an implementation for the hypothesis test of Mann Kendall Sen. The calculation of the coefficient of variation showed that despite the short confrontation over the occurrence of variability, in the case of streamflow series obtained by SMAP initialized with estimated evaporation, the rounds of the models MIROC3_2_MEDRES reported increases in variability for the XXI century in relation to the twentieth century. When booting into SMAP occurs through evaporation provided by INMET is a great diversification in the values of variability. Although the interannual analysis, the curve of cumulative distribution function (CDF) showed that eight of the analyzed models (models initialized with evaporation estimated by the method of Penann Motheith-modified) 3 have a higher frequency of dry events, have a third event frequency wet and two models showing no meaningful analyzes approaching the curve generated by the series of observed flows. As for seasonal analysis of the flow is observed that when using the method of Penann Motheith modified to evaporation (initialization SMAP) values of flow rates become smaller than the values obtained by series generated by the hydrologic model initialized with evaporation provided by INMET , relating the new century, the twentieth century.
No presente trabalho as projeções de vazões para a bacia do Óros (Ceará) foram obtidas usando as precipitações dos modelos globais do quarto relatório do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) para o período de 2010 a 2099 do cenário A1B. As vazões foram geradas pelo modelo hidrológico Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP). Para a obtenção destas, as precipitações foram corrigidas estatisticamente a partir dos dados observados, considerando as séries distribuições do tipo gama. Quanto à evaporação de entrada do modelo chuva-vazão foram feitas duas considerações, a primeira consideração utiliza vazões obtidas pelo modelo hidrológico SMAP inicializado com evaporação fornecidas pelo INMET e a segunda considera que a inicialização foi feita por evaporações estimadas pelo método de Penann Mothieth. Para a análise das variações interanuais foram observadas as características de tendências das séries (usando método clássico de Mann-Kendall-Sen) nos padrões de variação (análise da média e do coeficiente de variação da série) e a análise de extremos (comparação das curvas de distribuição acumulada do século XX e XXI). Para análise sazonal considerou-se a anomalia na climatologia média dos modelos do século XXI em relação ao século XX. Para a análise interanual foi observado que a inicialização do modelo hidrológico SMAP com evaporações estimadas pelo método de Penann Motheith modificado pode surgir como implementação para o teste de hipótese de Mann Kendall Sen. O calculo do coeficiente de variação demonstrou que apesar da pouca divergência quanto a ocorrência de variabilidade, tratando-se de séries de vazões obtidas pelo SMAP inicializado com evaporações estimadas, as rodadas dos modelos MIROC3_2_MEDRES relatou aumentos de variabilidade para o século XXI em relação ao século XX. Quando a inicialização no SMAP ocorre por meio de evaporações fornecidas pelo INMET ocorre uma grande diversificação nos valores de variabilidade. Ainda na análise interanual, a curva de função de distribuição acumulada (CDF) demonstrou que dos 8 modelos analisados (modelos inicializados com evaporações estimadas pelo método de Penann-Motheith modificado) 3 apresentam maior freqüência de eventos secos, 3 apresentam uma freqüência de eventos mais úmidos e 2 modelos não apresentando análises significativas aproximando-se da curva gerada pela série de vazão observada. Quanto à análise sazonal das vazões é observado que quando se utiliza o método de Penann Motheith modificado para evaporação (na inicialização do SMAP) os valores de vazões tornam-se menores do que os valores obtidos por séries geradas pelo modelo hidrológico inicializado com evaporações fornecidas pelo INMET, relacionando o século XXI com o século XX.